"Enough For Tapering To Start": Wall Street Reacts To A Blockbuster Jobs Report_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

"Enough For Tapering To Start": Wall Street Reacts To A Blockbuster Jobs Report

zerohedge2021-08-06

With the jobs report coming in at just shy of 1 million jobs on the establishment survey (and just over 1 million on the Household survey), with strong job creation, a big drop in unemployment rate, ...

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525

CPLam
·2021-08-08
[微笑]
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3
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- CPLam:
  [微笑]
  2021-08-08
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erichosk
·2021-08-08
Tapering will start.
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erichosk
·2021-08-08
Tapering will start.
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2
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ychong87
·2021-08-08
Still too much money in the markets for the rich
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5
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- erichosk:
  yup
  2021-08-08
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- JazzKhor:
  Ya
  2021-08-08
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woshihui
·2021-08-08
Like pls
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4
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Ahqiang
·2021-08-08
Like n comment
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2
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- woshihui:
  Ok
  2021-08-08
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Power1
·2021-08-08
Yes 2023
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1
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Workaholyk
·2021-08-07
2023 right?!
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点赞
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- TraderNeo:
  we just have to wait to hear more info from the Fed in the coming Jackson Hole and FOMC
  2021-08-08
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Sing2me
·2021-08-07
Like n comment
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Yvonne75
·2021-08-07
😃
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1
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- Yvonne75:
  666
  2021-08-07
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48abff9e
·2021-08-07
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7
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- 48abff9e:
  Like
  2021-10-30
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- 48abff9e:
  Like
  2021-10-28
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- Che111:
  Like
  2021-10-28
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HeoMoi
·2021-08-07
I like
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6
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- CCKK:
  👍🏻
  2021-08-07
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ac1887
·2021-08-07
Good
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5
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- CHOOTC:
  like
  2021-08-07
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Alvin1975
·2021-08-07
Like and comment pls
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2
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HappyTum
·2021-08-07
Like
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8
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MrTig3r
·2021-08-07
taper taper taper
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- L1324:
  tap tap tap
  2021-08-07
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- Weijielim:
  ok
  2021-08-07
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EeEeEeE
·2021-08-07
[Miser]
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6
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老Uncle
·2021-08-07
ah lai liao lor 😁😁
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- rogue66:
  taper soon
  2021-08-07
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- 43175c63:
  💪🏼
  2021-08-07
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- StockWatcher:
  Put Put car On the way
  2021-08-07
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Athenwyk
·2021-08-07
Good
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- stephyK:
  Like and comment
  2021-08-07
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- 1PerCentClub:
  Done
  2021-08-07
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- MrTig3r:
  can taper faster?
  2021-08-07
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Rickyt089
·2021-08-07
Like pls
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Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.”\nDo others agree? Below we have excerpted some analyst and strategist reactions to today's report.\nKatherine Judge, CIBC Capital Markets:\n\n“With many states set to see the unemployment benefit top-ups expire in early September, healthy job gains should continue ahead, in line with elevated job openings. This print should be enough to allow the Fed to announce an early 2022 tapering of QE at the September meeting.”\n\nChris Turner, head of foreign exchange strategy at ING Bank:\n\nThe stronger-than-expected jobs report makes it more likely that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell may “drop heavy hints” at the Jackson Hole Symposium later this month, that the central bank may prepare to start tapering over subsequent months. The data is positive for the dollar versus the low-yielders such as the yen and euro. Still, the outlook for the greenback “should not necessarily damage the risk environment....Unless U.S. 10 year yields spike aggressively, high yield EM currencies should see demand on dips”\n\nCarl Riccadonna, Bloomberg Intelligence economist:\n\nThe jobs report is “sturdy, but not as strong as it looks.” In addition to the modest fade in the pace of private-sector hiring (703,000 in July vs. 769,000 in June), much of the July gain occurred in the tenuous leisure and hospitality sector -- and that could easily reverse due to Covid-19, he said. This already appears to be evident in metrics such as OpenTable bookings. “So if we look at private-sector hiring outside of leisure and hospitality, today’s reported gain was 323,000, a bit slower than the prior month’s 375,000.\nThis tells us that underlying economic momentum is steady-state, not accelerating.”\n\nNeil Dutta, economist at Renaissance Macro:\n\nThe FOMC could upgrade its language in the September statement to say that the economy is “on track for substantial further progress,” which would lead to a declaration of achievement of substantial further progress in “November at the earliest.”  Tapering, in that event, could begin as early as December.\n\nJJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade:\n\n“It’s a great number, there’s no way around that, it really is an impressive number. But I think if we didn’t have this new delta variant coming up, the conversation we’d be having is, is this inflationary, does this mean we’ll go into a taper, etc. But because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.”\n\nRoberto Perli, head of global policy research at Cornerstone Macro:\n\n“The Fed will have one more employment report before the September meeting. Assuming it will be good as well, a plausible base case is for the FOMC to say at the September meeting that the labor market continued to make good progress, and if the progress continues at the recent pace the committee will be in a position to start tapering its asset purchases over the next few months.  That would put the onset of tapering in late December or early January.“So bottom line I think the timeline remains the same.  It would be hard to start tapering in September because it would go against both the ‘coming meetings’ (plural) language in the July statement and the notion that the FOMC would provide ample notice before actually starting tapering.”","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[{"id":891541450,"gmtCreate":1628403695370,"gmtModify":1633747308759,"author":{"id":"3582955658777354","authorId":"3582955658777354","name":"CPLam","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b60f94547aab59173fe6c47ba3e17cb3","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3582955658777354","idStr":"3582955658777354"},"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/891541450","repostId":1145298738,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1145298738","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628259150,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1145298738?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-06 22:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"\"Enough For Tapering To Start\": Wall Street Reacts To A Blockbuster Jobs Report<blockquote>“足以开始缩减规模”：华尔街对重磅就业报告的反应</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1145298738","media":"zerohedge","summary":"With the jobs report coming in at just shy of 1 million jobs on the establishment survey (and just o","content":"With the jobs report coming in at just shy of 1 million jobs on the establishment survey (and just over 1 million on the Household survey), with strong job creation, a big drop in unemployment rate, higher employment-to-population, rising wages and hours worked, and favorable revisions, consensus - at least judging by the market reaction - is that we have entered the \"substantial progress\" phase, greenlighting a tapering signal by the Fed at the end of the month during the Jackson Hole symposium.<blockquote>就业报告显示，企业调查中的就业岗位略低于 100 万个（家庭调查中的就业岗位略高于 100 万个），就业创造强劲，失业率大幅下降，就业人口比率上升，工资和工作时间上涨，以及有利的修正，至少从市场反应来看，共识是我们已经进入了“实质性进展”阶段，为美联储在本月底杰克逊霍尔研讨会期间发出的缩减规模信号开了绿灯。</blockquote> And yet there is one potential hurdle: the Delta surge and ensuing restrictions and/or lockdowns: as TD Ameritrade's JJ Kinahan says, \"because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.”<blockquote>然而，还有一个潜在的障碍：三角洲的激增以及随之而来的限制和/或封锁： 正如德美利证券（TD Ameritrade）的 JJ Kinahan 所说：“由于德尔塔变异毒株，在我们对此有更多了解之前，我认为它会给我们带来不同的压力，我们会说，好吧，现在我们处于观望模式。很高兴看到就业岗位和经济都在增长--希望在下一份就业报告中，我们就能知道经济能否继续以这样的速度增长。现在看来会的。”</blockquote> Do others agree? Below we have excerpted some analyst and strategist reactions to today's report.<blockquote>其他人同意吗？下面我们摘录了一些分析师和策略师对今天报告的反应。</blockquote> Katherine Judge, CIBC Capital Markets:<blockquote>CIBC 资本市场 Katherine Judge：</blockquote> “With many states set to see the unemployment benefit top-ups expire in early September, healthy job gains should continue ahead, in line with elevated job openings. This print should be enough to allow the Fed to announce an early 2022 tapering of QE at the September meeting.” Chris Turner, head of foreign exchange strategy at ING Bank:<blockquote>“由于许多州的失业救济金补贴将于 9 月初到期，健康的就业增长应与职位空缺的增加保持一致。这一数字应足以让美联储在 9 月份的会议上宣布在 2022 年初缩减量化宽松政策。”荷兰国际集团银行外汇策略主管克里斯·特纳：</blockquote> The stronger-than-expected jobs report makes it more likely that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell may “drop heavy hints” at the Jackson Hole Symposium later this month, that the central bank may prepare to start tapering over subsequent months. The data is positive for the dollar versus the low-yielders such as the yen and euro. Still, the outlook for the greenback “should not necessarily damage the risk environment....Unless U.S. 10 year yields spike aggressively, high yield EM currencies should see demand on dips” Carl Riccadonna, Bloomberg Intelligence economist:<blockquote>强于预期的就业报告使得美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）更有可能在本月晚些时候的杰克逊霍尔研讨会上 “暗示”美联储可能准备在未来几个月开始缩减规模。该数据对美元兑日元和欧元等低收益货币有利。尽管如此，美元的前景“不一定会损害风险环境……除非美国 10 年期国债收益率大幅飙升，否则高收益新兴市场货币应该会在下跌时看到需求”。彭博情报经济学家卡尔·里卡多纳：</blockquote> The jobs report is “sturdy, but not as strong as it looks.” In addition to the modest fade in the pace of private-sector hiring (703,000 in July vs. 769,000 in June), much of the July gain occurred in the tenuous leisure and hospitality sector -- and that could easily reverse due to Covid-19, he said. This already appears to be evident in metrics such as OpenTable bookings. “So if we look at private-sector hiring outside of leisure and hospitality, today’s reported gain was 323,000, a bit slower than the prior month’s 375,000. This tells us that underlying economic momentum is steady-state, not accelerating.” Neil Dutta, economist at Renaissance Macro:<blockquote>就业报告 “稳健，但并不像看起来那么强劲”。他说，除了私营部门招聘速度略有放缓（7 月份为 703,000 人，6 月份为 769,000 人）之外，7 月份的大部分增长都发生在脆弱的休闲和酒店业，而且由于 Covid-19，这种情况很容易逆转。这在OpenTable预订等指标中似乎已经很明显了。“因此，如果我们看看休闲和酒店业以外的私营部门招聘情况，今天报告的增幅为 32.3 万人，略低于上月的 37.5 万人。这告诉我们，潜在的经济动能是稳定的，而不是加速的。”Neil Dutta，Renaissance Macro 经济学家:</blockquote> The FOMC could upgrade its language in the September statement to say that the economy is “on track for substantial further progress,” which would lead to a declaration of achievement of substantial further progress in “November at the earliest.”&nbsp; Tapering, in that event, could begin as early as December. JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade:<blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会可能会在 9 月份的声明中升级措辞，称经济 “有望取得实质性进一步进展”，这将导致 “最早在 11 月 ”宣布取得实质性进一步进展。在这种情况下，缩减规模最早可能在 12 月开始。德美利证券首席市场策略师 JJ Kinahan：</blockquote> “It’s a great number, there’s no way around that, it really is an impressive number. But I think if we didn’t have this new delta variant coming up, the conversation we’d be having is, is this inflationary, does this mean we’ll go into a taper, etc. But because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.” Roberto Perli, head of global policy research at Cornerstone Macro:<blockquote>“这是一个很棒的数字，这是无法回避的，这真的是一个令人印象深刻的数字。但我认为，如果我们没有新的德尔塔变异毒株，我们会讨论的话题是，这是否会导致通货膨胀，这是否意味着我们将进入缩减通货膨胀等等。但由于德尔塔变异毒株，在我们对此有更多了解之前，我认为它会给我们带来不同的压力，我们会说，好吧，现在我们处于观望模式。很高兴看到就业和经济都在发展--希望在下一份就业报告中，我们就能知道经济能否继续以这样的速度发展。现在看来会的。”Cornerstone Macro 全球政策研究主管 Roberto Perli：</blockquote> “The Fed will have one more employment report before the September meeting. Assuming it will be good as well, a plausible base case is for the FOMC to say at the September meeting that the labor market continued to make good progress, and if the progress continues at the recent pace the committee will be in a position to start tapering its asset purchases over the next few months.&nbsp; That would put the onset of tapering in late December or early January.“So bottom line I think the timeline remains the same.&nbsp; It would be hard to start tapering in September because it would go against both the ‘coming meetings’ (plural) language in the July statement and the notion that the FOMC would provide ample notice before actually starting tapering.” <blockquote>“美联储将在9月会议前再发布一份就业报告。假设情况也不错，那么一个合理的基本情况是，联邦公开市场委员会在 9 月份的会议上表示，劳动力市场继续取得良好进展，如果进展继续以最近的速度进行，委员会将能够在未来几个月内开始缩减资产购买规模。这将使缩减资产购买规模的开始时间在 12 月底或 1 月初。“因此，我认为时间表保持不变。9 月份开始缩减资产规模很难，因为这既违背了 7 月份声明中'即将召开会议'（复数）的措辞，也违背了联邦公开市场委员会在实际开始缩减资产规模之前会提供充分通知的理念。”</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n\"Enough For Tapering To Start\": Wall Street Reacts To A Blockbuster Jobs Report<blockquote>“足以开始缩减规模”：华尔街对重磅就业报告的反应</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzerohedge2021-08-06 22:12\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nWith the jobs report coming in at just shy of 1 million jobs on the establishment survey (and just over 1 million on the Household survey), with strong job creation, a big drop in unemployment rate, higher employment-to-population, rising wages and hours worked, and favorable revisions, consensus - at least judging by the market reaction - is that we have entered the \"substantial progress\" phase, greenlighting a tapering signal by the Fed at the end of the month during the Jackson Hole symposium.<blockquote>就业报告显示，企业调查中的就业岗位略低于 100 万个（家庭调查中的就业岗位略高于 100 万个），就业创造强劲，失业率大幅下降，就业人口比率上升，工资和工作时间上涨，以及有利的修正，至少从市场反应来看，共识是我们已经进入了“实质性进展”阶段，为美联储在本月底杰克逊霍尔研讨会期间发出的缩减规模信号开了绿灯。</blockquote> And yet there is one potential hurdle: the Delta surge and ensuing restrictions and/or lockdowns: as TD Ameritrade's JJ Kinahan says, \"because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.”<blockquote>然而，还有一个潜在的障碍：三角洲的激增以及随之而来的限制和/或封锁： 正如德美利证券（TD Ameritrade）的 JJ Kinahan 所说：“由于德尔塔变异毒株，在我们对此有更多了解之前，我认为它会给我们带来不同的压力，我们会说，好吧，现在我们处于观望模式。很高兴看到就业岗位和经济都在增长--希望在下一份就业报告中，我们就能知道经济能否继续以这样的速度增长。现在看来会的。”</blockquote> Do others agree? Below we have excerpted some analyst and strategist reactions to today's report.<blockquote>其他人同意吗？下面我们摘录了一些分析师和策略师对今天报告的反应。</blockquote> Katherine Judge, CIBC Capital Markets:<blockquote>CIBC 资本市场 Katherine Judge：</blockquote> “With many states set to see the unemployment benefit top-ups expire in early September, healthy job gains should continue ahead, in line with elevated job openings. This print should be enough to allow the Fed to announce an early 2022 tapering of QE at the September meeting.” Chris Turner, head of foreign exchange strategy at ING Bank:<blockquote>“由于许多州的失业救济金补贴将于 9 月初到期，健康的就业增长应与职位空缺的增加保持一致。这一数字应足以让美联储在 9 月份的会议上宣布在 2022 年初缩减量化宽松政策。”荷兰国际集团银行外汇策略主管克里斯·特纳：</blockquote> The stronger-than-expected jobs report makes it more likely that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell may “drop heavy hints” at the Jackson Hole Symposium later this month, that the central bank may prepare to start tapering over subsequent months. The data is positive for the dollar versus the low-yielders such as the yen and euro. Still, the outlook for the greenback “should not necessarily damage the risk environment....Unless U.S. 10 year yields spike aggressively, high yield EM currencies should see demand on dips” Carl Riccadonna, Bloomberg Intelligence economist:<blockquote>强于预期的就业报告使得美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）更有可能在本月晚些时候的杰克逊霍尔研讨会上 “暗示”美联储可能准备在未来几个月开始缩减规模。该数据对美元兑日元和欧元等低收益货币有利。尽管如此，美元的前景“不一定会损害风险环境……除非美国 10 年期国债收益率大幅飙升，否则高收益新兴市场货币应该会在下跌时看到需求”。彭博情报经济学家卡尔·里卡多纳：</blockquote> The jobs report is “sturdy, but not as strong as it looks.” In addition to the modest fade in the pace of private-sector hiring (703,000 in July vs. 769,000 in June), much of the July gain occurred in the tenuous leisure and hospitality sector -- and that could easily reverse due to Covid-19, he said. This already appears to be evident in metrics such as OpenTable bookings. “So if we look at private-sector hiring outside of leisure and hospitality, today’s reported gain was 323,000, a bit slower than the prior month’s 375,000. This tells us that underlying economic momentum is steady-state, not accelerating.” Neil Dutta, economist at Renaissance Macro:<blockquote>就业报告 “稳健，但并不像看起来那么强劲”。他说，除了私营部门招聘速度略有放缓（7 月份为 703,000 人，6 月份为 769,000 人）之外，7 月份的大部分增长都发生在脆弱的休闲和酒店业，而且由于 Covid-19，这种情况很容易逆转。这在OpenTable预订等指标中似乎已经很明显了。“因此，如果我们看看休闲和酒店业以外的私营部门招聘情况，今天报告的增幅为 32.3 万人，略低于上月的 37.5 万人。这告诉我们，潜在的经济动能是稳定的，而不是加速的。”Neil Dutta，Renaissance Macro 经济学家:</blockquote> The FOMC could upgrade its language in the September statement to say that the economy is “on track for substantial further progress,” which would lead to a declaration of achievement of substantial further progress in “November at the earliest.”&nbsp; Tapering, in that event, could begin as early as December. JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade:<blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会可能会在 9 月份的声明中升级措辞，称经济 “有望取得实质性进一步进展”，这将导致 “最早在 11 月 ”宣布取得实质性进一步进展。在这种情况下，缩减规模最早可能在 12 月开始。德美利证券首席市场策略师 JJ Kinahan：</blockquote> “It’s a great number, there’s no way around that, it really is an impressive number. But I think if we didn’t have this new delta variant coming up, the conversation we’d be having is, is this inflationary, does this mean we’ll go into a taper, etc. But because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.” Roberto Perli, head of global policy research at Cornerstone Macro:<blockquote>“这是一个很棒的数字，这是无法回避的，这真的是一个令人印象深刻的数字。但我认为，如果我们没有新的德尔塔变异毒株，我们会讨论的话题是，这是否会导致通货膨胀，这是否意味着我们将进入缩减通货膨胀等等。但由于德尔塔变异毒株，在我们对此有更多了解之前，我认为它会给我们带来不同的压力，我们会说，好吧，现在我们处于观望模式。很高兴看到就业和经济都在发展--希望在下一份就业报告中，我们就能知道经济能否继续以这样的速度发展。现在看来会的。”Cornerstone Macro 全球政策研究主管 Roberto Perli：</blockquote> “The Fed will have one more employment report before the September meeting. Assuming it will be good as well, a plausible base case is for the FOMC to say at the September meeting that the labor market continued to make good progress, and if the progress continues at the recent pace the committee will be in a position to start tapering its asset purchases over the next few months.&nbsp; That would put the onset of tapering in late December or early January.“So bottom line I think the timeline remains the same.&nbsp; It would be hard to start tapering in September because it would go against both the ‘coming meetings’ (plural) language in the July statement and the notion that the FOMC would provide ample notice before actually starting tapering.” <blockquote>“美联储将在9月会议前再发布一份就业报告。假设情况也不错，那么一个合理的基本情况是，联邦公开市场委员会在 9 月份的会议上表示，劳动力市场继续取得良好进展，如果进展继续以最近的速度进行，委员会将能够在未来几个月内开始缩减资产购买规模。这将使缩减资产购买规模的开始时间在 12 月底或 1 月初。“因此，我认为时间表保持不变。9 月份开始缩减资产规模很难，因为这既违背了 7 月份声明中'即将召开会议'（复数）的措辞，也违背了联邦公开市场委员会在实际开始缩减资产规模之前会提供充分通知的理念。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/enough-tapering-start-wall-street-reacts-blockbuster-jobs-report\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/enough-tapering-start-wall-street-reacts-blockbuster-jobs-report","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1145298738","content_text":"With the jobs report coming in at just shy of 1 million jobs on the establishment survey (and just over 1 million on the Household survey), with strong job creation, a big drop in unemployment rate, higher employment-to-population, rising wages and hours worked, and favorable revisions, consensus - at least judging by the market reaction - is that we have entered the \"substantial progress\" phase, greenlighting a tapering signal by the Fed at the end of the month during the Jackson Hole symposium.\nAnd yet there is one potential hurdle: the Delta surge and ensuing restrictions and/or lockdowns: as TD Ameritrade's JJ Kinahan says, \"because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.”\nDo others agree? Below we have excerpted some analyst and strategist reactions to today's report.\nKatherine Judge, CIBC Capital Markets:\n\n“With many states set to see the unemployment benefit top-ups expire in early September, healthy job gains should continue ahead, in line with elevated job openings. This print should be enough to allow the Fed to announce an early 2022 tapering of QE at the September meeting.”\n\nChris Turner, head of foreign exchange strategy at ING Bank:\n\nThe stronger-than-expected jobs report makes it more likely that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell may “drop heavy hints” at the Jackson Hole Symposium later this month, that the central bank may prepare to start tapering over subsequent months. The data is positive for the dollar versus the low-yielders such as the yen and euro. Still, the outlook for the greenback “should not necessarily damage the risk environment....Unless U.S. 10 year yields spike aggressively, high yield EM currencies should see demand on dips”\n\nCarl Riccadonna, Bloomberg Intelligence economist:\n\nThe jobs report is “sturdy, but not as strong as it looks.” In addition to the modest fade in the pace of private-sector hiring (703,000 in July vs. 769,000 in June), much of the July gain occurred in the tenuous leisure and hospitality sector -- and that could easily reverse due to Covid-19, he said. This already appears to be evident in metrics such as OpenTable bookings. “So if we look at private-sector hiring outside of leisure and hospitality, today’s reported gain was 323,000, a bit slower than the prior month’s 375,000.\nThis tells us that underlying economic momentum is steady-state, not accelerating.”\n\nNeil Dutta, economist at Renaissance Macro:\n\nThe FOMC could upgrade its language in the September statement to say that the economy is “on track for substantial further progress,” which would lead to a declaration of achievement of substantial further progress in “November at the earliest.”  Tapering, in that event, could begin as early as December.\n\nJJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade:\n\n“It’s a great number, there’s no way around that, it really is an impressive number. But I think if we didn’t have this new delta variant coming up, the conversation we’d be having is, is this inflationary, does this mean we’ll go into a taper, etc. But because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.”\n\nRoberto Perli, head of global policy research at Cornerstone Macro:\n\n“The Fed will have one more employment report before the September meeting. Assuming it will be good as well, a plausible base case is for the FOMC to say at the September meeting that the labor market continued to make good progress, and if the progress continues at the recent pace the committee will be in a position to start tapering its asset purchases over the next few months.  That would put the onset of tapering in late December or early January.“So bottom line I think the timeline remains the same.  It would be hard to start tapering in September because it would go against both the ‘coming meetings’ (plural) language in the July statement and the notion that the FOMC would provide ample notice before actually starting tapering.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5461622,"gmtCreate":1628403705438,"gmtModify":1635157115317,"authorId":3582955658777354,"author":{"id":3582955658777354,"idStr":"3582955658777354","authorId":3582955658777354,"name":"CPLam","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b60f94547aab59173fe6c47ba3e17cb3","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":891541450,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"[微笑]","text":"[微笑]","html":"[微笑]"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":891589510,"gmtCreate":1628399781430,"gmtModify":1633747344877,"author":{"id":"3575433293784452","authorId":"3575433293784452","name":"erichosk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3575433293784452","idStr":"3575433293784452"},"htmlText":"Tapering will start.","listText":"Tapering will start.","text":"Tapering will start.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/891589510","repostId":1145298738,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1145298738","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628259150,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1145298738?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-06 22:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"\"Enough For Tapering To Start\": Wall Street Reacts To A Blockbuster Jobs Report<blockquote>“足以开始缩减规模”：华尔街对重磅就业报告的反应</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1145298738","media":"zerohedge","summary":"With the jobs report coming in at just shy of 1 million jobs on the establishment survey (and just o","content":"With the jobs report coming in at just shy of 1 million jobs on the establishment survey (and just over 1 million on the Household survey), with strong job creation, a big drop in unemployment rate, higher employment-to-population, rising wages and hours worked, and favorable revisions, consensus - at least judging by the market reaction - is that we have entered the \"substantial progress\" phase, greenlighting a tapering signal by the Fed at the end of the month during the Jackson Hole symposium.<blockquote>就业报告显示，企业调查中的就业岗位略低于 100 万个（家庭调查中的就业岗位略高于 100 万个），就业创造强劲，失业率大幅下降，就业人口比率上升，工资和工作时间上涨，以及有利的修正，至少从市场反应来看，共识是我们已经进入了“实质性进展”阶段，为美联储在本月底杰克逊霍尔研讨会期间发出的缩减规模信号开了绿灯。</blockquote> And yet there is one potential hurdle: the Delta surge and ensuing restrictions and/or lockdowns: as TD Ameritrade's JJ Kinahan says, \"because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.”<blockquote>然而，还有一个潜在的障碍：三角洲的激增以及随之而来的限制和/或封锁： 正如德美利证券（TD Ameritrade）的 JJ Kinahan 所说：“由于德尔塔变异毒株，在我们对此有更多了解之前，我认为它会给我们带来不同的压力，我们会说，好吧，现在我们处于观望模式。很高兴看到就业岗位和经济都在增长--希望在下一份就业报告中，我们就能知道经济能否继续以这样的速度增长。现在看来会的。”</blockquote> Do others agree? Below we have excerpted some analyst and strategist reactions to today's report.<blockquote>其他人同意吗？下面我们摘录了一些分析师和策略师对今天报告的反应。</blockquote> Katherine Judge, CIBC Capital Markets:<blockquote>CIBC 资本市场 Katherine Judge：</blockquote> “With many states set to see the unemployment benefit top-ups expire in early September, healthy job gains should continue ahead, in line with elevated job openings. This print should be enough to allow the Fed to announce an early 2022 tapering of QE at the September meeting.” Chris Turner, head of foreign exchange strategy at ING Bank:<blockquote>“由于许多州的失业救济金补贴将于 9 月初到期，健康的就业增长应与职位空缺的增加保持一致。这一数字应足以让美联储在 9 月份的会议上宣布在 2022 年初缩减量化宽松政策。”荷兰国际集团银行外汇策略主管克里斯·特纳：</blockquote> The stronger-than-expected jobs report makes it more likely that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell may “drop heavy hints” at the Jackson Hole Symposium later this month, that the central bank may prepare to start tapering over subsequent months. The data is positive for the dollar versus the low-yielders such as the yen and euro. Still, the outlook for the greenback “should not necessarily damage the risk environment....Unless U.S. 10 year yields spike aggressively, high yield EM currencies should see demand on dips” Carl Riccadonna, Bloomberg Intelligence economist:<blockquote>强于预期的就业报告使得美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）更有可能在本月晚些时候的杰克逊霍尔研讨会上 “暗示”美联储可能准备在未来几个月开始缩减规模。该数据对美元兑日元和欧元等低收益货币有利。尽管如此，美元的前景“不一定会损害风险环境……除非美国 10 年期国债收益率大幅飙升，否则高收益新兴市场货币应该会在下跌时看到需求”。彭博情报经济学家卡尔·里卡多纳：</blockquote> The jobs report is “sturdy, but not as strong as it looks.” In addition to the modest fade in the pace of private-sector hiring (703,000 in July vs. 769,000 in June), much of the July gain occurred in the tenuous leisure and hospitality sector -- and that could easily reverse due to Covid-19, he said. This already appears to be evident in metrics such as OpenTable bookings. “So if we look at private-sector hiring outside of leisure and hospitality, today’s reported gain was 323,000, a bit slower than the prior month’s 375,000. This tells us that underlying economic momentum is steady-state, not accelerating.” Neil Dutta, economist at Renaissance Macro:<blockquote>就业报告 “稳健，但并不像看起来那么强劲”。他说，除了私营部门招聘速度略有放缓（7 月份为 703,000 人，6 月份为 769,000 人）之外，7 月份的大部分增长都发生在脆弱的休闲和酒店业，而且由于 Covid-19，这种情况很容易逆转。这在OpenTable预订等指标中似乎已经很明显了。“因此，如果我们看看休闲和酒店业以外的私营部门招聘情况，今天报告的增幅为 32.3 万人，略低于上月的 37.5 万人。这告诉我们，潜在的经济动能是稳定的，而不是加速的。”Neil Dutta，Renaissance Macro 经济学家:</blockquote> The FOMC could upgrade its language in the September statement to say that the economy is “on track for substantial further progress,” which would lead to a declaration of achievement of substantial further progress in “November at the earliest.”&nbsp; Tapering, in that event, could begin as early as December. JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade:<blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会可能会在 9 月份的声明中升级措辞，称经济 “有望取得实质性进一步进展”，这将导致 “最早在 11 月 ”宣布取得实质性进一步进展。在这种情况下，缩减规模最早可能在 12 月开始。德美利证券首席市场策略师 JJ Kinahan：</blockquote> “It’s a great number, there’s no way around that, it really is an impressive number. But I think if we didn’t have this new delta variant coming up, the conversation we’d be having is, is this inflationary, does this mean we’ll go into a taper, etc. But because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.” Roberto Perli, head of global policy research at Cornerstone Macro:<blockquote>“这是一个很棒的数字，这是无法回避的，这真的是一个令人印象深刻的数字。但我认为，如果我们没有新的德尔塔变异毒株，我们会讨论的话题是，这是否会导致通货膨胀，这是否意味着我们将进入缩减通货膨胀等等。但由于德尔塔变异毒株，在我们对此有更多了解之前，我认为它会给我们带来不同的压力，我们会说，好吧，现在我们处于观望模式。很高兴看到就业和经济都在发展--希望在下一份就业报告中，我们就能知道经济能否继续以这样的速度发展。现在看来会的。”Cornerstone Macro 全球政策研究主管 Roberto Perli：</blockquote> “The Fed will have one more employment report before the September meeting. Assuming it will be good as well, a plausible base case is for the FOMC to say at the September meeting that the labor market continued to make good progress, and if the progress continues at the recent pace the committee will be in a position to start tapering its asset purchases over the next few months.&nbsp; That would put the onset of tapering in late December or early January.“So bottom line I think the timeline remains the same.&nbsp; It would be hard to start tapering in September because it would go against both the ‘coming meetings’ (plural) language in the July statement and the notion that the FOMC would provide ample notice before actually starting tapering.” <blockquote>“美联储将在9月会议前再发布一份就业报告。假设情况也不错，那么一个合理的基本情况是，联邦公开市场委员会在 9 月份的会议上表示，劳动力市场继续取得良好进展，如果进展继续以最近的速度进行，委员会将能够在未来几个月内开始缩减资产购买规模。这将使缩减资产购买规模的开始时间在 12 月底或 1 月初。“因此，我认为时间表保持不变。9 月份开始缩减资产规模很难，因为这既违背了 7 月份声明中'即将召开会议'（复数）的措辞，也违背了联邦公开市场委员会在实际开始缩减资产规模之前会提供充分通知的理念。”</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.”<blockquote>然而，还有一个潜在的障碍：三角洲的激增以及随之而来的限制和/或封锁： 正如德美利证券（TD Ameritrade）的 JJ Kinahan 所说：“由于德尔塔变异毒株，在我们对此有更多了解之前，我认为它会给我们带来不同的压力，我们会说，好吧，现在我们处于观望模式。很高兴看到就业岗位和经济都在增长--希望在下一份就业报告中，我们就能知道经济能否继续以这样的速度增长。现在看来会的。”</blockquote> Do others agree? Below we have excerpted some analyst and strategist reactions to today's report.<blockquote>其他人同意吗？下面我们摘录了一些分析师和策略师对今天报告的反应。</blockquote> Katherine Judge, CIBC Capital Markets:<blockquote>CIBC 资本市场 Katherine Judge：</blockquote> “With many states set to see the unemployment benefit top-ups expire in early September, healthy job gains should continue ahead, in line with elevated job openings. This print should be enough to allow the Fed to announce an early 2022 tapering of QE at the September meeting.” Chris Turner, head of foreign exchange strategy at ING Bank:<blockquote>“由于许多州的失业救济金补贴将于 9 月初到期，健康的就业增长应与职位空缺的增加保持一致。这一数字应足以让美联储在 9 月份的会议上宣布在 2022 年初缩减量化宽松政策。”荷兰国际集团银行外汇策略主管克里斯·特纳：</blockquote> The stronger-than-expected jobs report makes it more likely that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell may “drop heavy hints” at the Jackson Hole Symposium later this month, that the central bank may prepare to start tapering over subsequent months. The data is positive for the dollar versus the low-yielders such as the yen and euro. Still, the outlook for the greenback “should not necessarily damage the risk environment....Unless U.S. 10 year yields spike aggressively, high yield EM currencies should see demand on dips” Carl Riccadonna, Bloomberg Intelligence economist:<blockquote>强于预期的就业报告使得美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）更有可能在本月晚些时候的杰克逊霍尔研讨会上 “暗示”美联储可能准备在未来几个月开始缩减规模。该数据对美元兑日元和欧元等低收益货币有利。尽管如此，美元的前景“不一定会损害风险环境……除非美国 10 年期国债收益率大幅飙升，否则高收益新兴市场货币应该会在下跌时看到需求”。彭博情报经济学家卡尔·里卡多纳：</blockquote> The jobs report is “sturdy, but not as strong as it looks.” In addition to the modest fade in the pace of private-sector hiring (703,000 in July vs. 769,000 in June), much of the July gain occurred in the tenuous leisure and hospitality sector -- and that could easily reverse due to Covid-19, he said. This already appears to be evident in metrics such as OpenTable bookings. “So if we look at private-sector hiring outside of leisure and hospitality, today’s reported gain was 323,000, a bit slower than the prior month’s 375,000. This tells us that underlying economic momentum is steady-state, not accelerating.” Neil Dutta, economist at Renaissance Macro:<blockquote>就业报告 “稳健，但并不像看起来那么强劲”。他说，除了私营部门招聘速度略有放缓（7 月份为 703,000 人，6 月份为 769,000 人）之外，7 月份的大部分增长都发生在脆弱的休闲和酒店业，而且由于 Covid-19，这种情况很容易逆转。这在OpenTable预订等指标中似乎已经很明显了。“因此，如果我们看看休闲和酒店业以外的私营部门招聘情况，今天报告的增幅为 32.3 万人，略低于上月的 37.5 万人。这告诉我们，潜在的经济动能是稳定的，而不是加速的。”Neil Dutta，Renaissance Macro 经济学家:</blockquote> The FOMC could upgrade its language in the September statement to say that the economy is “on track for substantial further progress,” which would lead to a declaration of achievement of substantial further progress in “November at the earliest.”&nbsp; Tapering, in that event, could begin as early as December. JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade:<blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会可能会在 9 月份的声明中升级措辞，称经济 “有望取得实质性进一步进展”，这将导致 “最早在 11 月 ”宣布取得实质性进一步进展。在这种情况下，缩减规模最早可能在 12 月开始。德美利证券首席市场策略师 JJ Kinahan：</blockquote> “It’s a great number, there’s no way around that, it really is an impressive number. But I think if we didn’t have this new delta variant coming up, the conversation we’d be having is, is this inflationary, does this mean we’ll go into a taper, etc. But because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.” Roberto Perli, head of global policy research at Cornerstone Macro:<blockquote>“这是一个很棒的数字，这是无法回避的，这真的是一个令人印象深刻的数字。但我认为，如果我们没有新的德尔塔变异毒株，我们会讨论的话题是，这是否会导致通货膨胀，这是否意味着我们将进入缩减通货膨胀等等。但由于德尔塔变异毒株，在我们对此有更多了解之前，我认为它会给我们带来不同的压力，我们会说，好吧，现在我们处于观望模式。很高兴看到就业和经济都在发展--希望在下一份就业报告中，我们就能知道经济能否继续以这样的速度发展。现在看来会的。”Cornerstone Macro 全球政策研究主管 Roberto Perli：</blockquote> “The Fed will have one more employment report before the September meeting. Assuming it will be good as well, a plausible base case is for the FOMC to say at the September meeting that the labor market continued to make good progress, and if the progress continues at the recent pace the committee will be in a position to start tapering its asset purchases over the next few months.&nbsp; That would put the onset of tapering in late December or early January.“So bottom line I think the timeline remains the same.&nbsp; It would be hard to start tapering in September because it would go against both the ‘coming meetings’ (plural) language in the July statement and the notion that the FOMC would provide ample notice before actually starting tapering.” <blockquote>“美联储将在9月会议前再发布一份就业报告。假设情况也不错，那么一个合理的基本情况是，联邦公开市场委员会在 9 月份的会议上表示，劳动力市场继续取得良好进展，如果进展继续以最近的速度进行，委员会将能够在未来几个月内开始缩减资产购买规模。这将使缩减资产购买规模的开始时间在 12 月底或 1 月初。“因此，我认为时间表保持不变。9 月份开始缩减资产规模很难，因为这既违背了 7 月份声明中'即将召开会议'（复数）的措辞，也违背了联邦公开市场委员会在实际开始缩减资产规模之前会提供充分通知的理念。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/enough-tapering-start-wall-street-reacts-blockbuster-jobs-report\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/enough-tapering-start-wall-street-reacts-blockbuster-jobs-report","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1145298738","content_text":"With the jobs report coming in at just shy of 1 million jobs on the establishment survey (and just over 1 million on the Household survey), with strong job creation, a big drop in unemployment rate, higher employment-to-population, rising wages and hours worked, and favorable revisions, consensus - at least judging by the market reaction - is that we have entered the \"substantial progress\" phase, greenlighting a tapering signal by the Fed at the end of the month during the Jackson Hole symposium.\nAnd yet there is one potential hurdle: the Delta surge and ensuing restrictions and/or lockdowns: as TD Ameritrade's JJ Kinahan says, \"because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.”\nDo others agree? Below we have excerpted some analyst and strategist reactions to today's report.\nKatherine Judge, CIBC Capital Markets:\n\n“With many states set to see the unemployment benefit top-ups expire in early September, healthy job gains should continue ahead, in line with elevated job openings. This print should be enough to allow the Fed to announce an early 2022 tapering of QE at the September meeting.”\n\nChris Turner, head of foreign exchange strategy at ING Bank:\n\nThe stronger-than-expected jobs report makes it more likely that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell may “drop heavy hints” at the Jackson Hole Symposium later this month, that the central bank may prepare to start tapering over subsequent months. The data is positive for the dollar versus the low-yielders such as the yen and euro. Still, the outlook for the greenback “should not necessarily damage the risk environment....Unless U.S. 10 year yields spike aggressively, high yield EM currencies should see demand on dips”\n\nCarl Riccadonna, Bloomberg Intelligence economist:\n\nThe jobs report is “sturdy, but not as strong as it looks.” In addition to the modest fade in the pace of private-sector hiring (703,000 in July vs. 769,000 in June), much of the July gain occurred in the tenuous leisure and hospitality sector -- and that could easily reverse due to Covid-19, he said. This already appears to be evident in metrics such as OpenTable bookings. “So if we look at private-sector hiring outside of leisure and hospitality, today’s reported gain was 323,000, a bit slower than the prior month’s 375,000.\nThis tells us that underlying economic momentum is steady-state, not accelerating.”\n\nNeil Dutta, economist at Renaissance Macro:\n\nThe FOMC could upgrade its language in the September statement to say that the economy is “on track for substantial further progress,” which would lead to a declaration of achievement of substantial further progress in “November at the earliest.”  Tapering, in that event, could begin as early as December.\n\nJJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade:\n\n“It’s a great number, there’s no way around that, it really is an impressive number. But I think if we didn’t have this new delta variant coming up, the conversation we’d be having is, is this inflationary, does this mean we’ll go into a taper, etc. But because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.”\n\nRoberto Perli, head of global policy research at Cornerstone Macro:\n\n“The Fed will have one more employment report before the September meeting. Assuming it will be good as well, a plausible base case is for the FOMC to say at the September meeting that the labor market continued to make good progress, and if the progress continues at the recent pace the committee will be in a position to start tapering its asset purchases over the next few months.  That would put the onset of tapering in late December or early January.“So bottom line I think the timeline remains the same.  It would be hard to start tapering in September because it would go against both the ‘coming meetings’ (plural) language in the July statement and the notion that the FOMC would provide ample notice before actually starting tapering.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":891589190,"gmtCreate":1628399747710,"gmtModify":1633747345220,"author":{"id":"3575433293784452","authorId":"3575433293784452","name":"erichosk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3575433293784452","idStr":"3575433293784452"},"htmlText":"Tapering will start.","listText":"Tapering will start.","text":"Tapering will start.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/891589190","repostId":1145298738,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1145298738","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628259150,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1145298738?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-06 22:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"\"Enough For Tapering To Start\": Wall Street Reacts To A Blockbuster Jobs Report<blockquote>“足以开始缩减规模”：华尔街对重磅就业报告的反应</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1145298738","media":"zerohedge","summary":"With the jobs report coming in at just shy of 1 million jobs on the establishment survey (and just o","content":"With the jobs report coming in at just shy of 1 million jobs on the establishment survey (and just over 1 million on the Household survey), with strong job creation, a big drop in unemployment rate, higher employment-to-population, rising wages and hours worked, and favorable revisions, consensus - at least judging by the market reaction - is that we have entered the \"substantial progress\" phase, greenlighting a tapering signal by the Fed at the end of the month during the Jackson Hole symposium.<blockquote>就业报告显示，企业调查中的就业岗位略低于 100 万个（家庭调查中的就业岗位略高于 100 万个），就业创造强劲，失业率大幅下降，就业人口比率上升，工资和工作时间上涨，以及有利的修正，至少从市场反应来看，共识是我们已经进入了“实质性进展”阶段，为美联储在本月底杰克逊霍尔研讨会期间发出的缩减规模信号开了绿灯。</blockquote> And yet there is one potential hurdle: the Delta surge and ensuing restrictions and/or lockdowns: as TD Ameritrade's JJ Kinahan says, \"because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.”<blockquote>然而，还有一个潜在的障碍：三角洲的激增以及随之而来的限制和/或封锁： 正如德美利证券（TD Ameritrade）的 JJ Kinahan 所说：“由于德尔塔变异毒株，在我们对此有更多了解之前，我认为它会给我们带来不同的压力，我们会说，好吧，现在我们处于观望模式。很高兴看到就业岗位和经济都在增长--希望在下一份就业报告中，我们就能知道经济能否继续以这样的速度增长。现在看来会的。”</blockquote> Do others agree? Below we have excerpted some analyst and strategist reactions to today's report.<blockquote>其他人同意吗？下面我们摘录了一些分析师和策略师对今天报告的反应。</blockquote> Katherine Judge, CIBC Capital Markets:<blockquote>CIBC 资本市场 Katherine Judge：</blockquote> “With many states set to see the unemployment benefit top-ups expire in early September, healthy job gains should continue ahead, in line with elevated job openings. This print should be enough to allow the Fed to announce an early 2022 tapering of QE at the September meeting.” Chris Turner, head of foreign exchange strategy at ING Bank:<blockquote>“由于许多州的失业救济金补贴将于 9 月初到期，健康的就业增长应与职位空缺的增加保持一致。这一数字应足以让美联储在 9 月份的会议上宣布在 2022 年初缩减量化宽松政策。”荷兰国际集团银行外汇策略主管克里斯·特纳：</blockquote> The stronger-than-expected jobs report makes it more likely that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell may “drop heavy hints” at the Jackson Hole Symposium later this month, that the central bank may prepare to start tapering over subsequent months. The data is positive for the dollar versus the low-yielders such as the yen and euro. Still, the outlook for the greenback “should not necessarily damage the risk environment....Unless U.S. 10 year yields spike aggressively, high yield EM currencies should see demand on dips” Carl Riccadonna, Bloomberg Intelligence economist:<blockquote>强于预期的就业报告使得美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）更有可能在本月晚些时候的杰克逊霍尔研讨会上 “暗示”美联储可能准备在未来几个月开始缩减规模。该数据对美元兑日元和欧元等低收益货币有利。尽管如此，美元的前景“不一定会损害风险环境……除非美国 10 年期国债收益率大幅飙升，否则高收益新兴市场货币应该会在下跌时看到需求”。彭博情报经济学家卡尔·里卡多纳：</blockquote> The jobs report is “sturdy, but not as strong as it looks.” In addition to the modest fade in the pace of private-sector hiring (703,000 in July vs. 769,000 in June), much of the July gain occurred in the tenuous leisure and hospitality sector -- and that could easily reverse due to Covid-19, he said. This already appears to be evident in metrics such as OpenTable bookings. “So if we look at private-sector hiring outside of leisure and hospitality, today’s reported gain was 323,000, a bit slower than the prior month’s 375,000. This tells us that underlying economic momentum is steady-state, not accelerating.” Neil Dutta, economist at Renaissance Macro:<blockquote>就业报告 “稳健，但并不像看起来那么强劲”。他说，除了私营部门招聘速度略有放缓（7 月份为 703,000 人，6 月份为 769,000 人）之外，7 月份的大部分增长都发生在脆弱的休闲和酒店业，而且由于 Covid-19，这种情况很容易逆转。这在OpenTable预订等指标中似乎已经很明显了。“因此，如果我们看看休闲和酒店业以外的私营部门招聘情况，今天报告的增幅为 32.3 万人，略低于上月的 37.5 万人。这告诉我们，潜在的经济动能是稳定的，而不是加速的。”Neil Dutta，Renaissance Macro 经济学家:</blockquote> The FOMC could upgrade its language in the September statement to say that the economy is “on track for substantial further progress,” which would lead to a declaration of achievement of substantial further progress in “November at the earliest.”&nbsp; Tapering, in that event, could begin as early as December. JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade:<blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会可能会在 9 月份的声明中升级措辞，称经济 “有望取得实质性进一步进展”，这将导致 “最早在 11 月 ”宣布取得实质性进一步进展。在这种情况下，缩减规模最早可能在 12 月开始。德美利证券首席市场策略师 JJ Kinahan：</blockquote> “It’s a great number, there’s no way around that, it really is an impressive number. But I think if we didn’t have this new delta variant coming up, the conversation we’d be having is, is this inflationary, does this mean we’ll go into a taper, etc. But because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.” Roberto Perli, head of global policy research at Cornerstone Macro:<blockquote>“这是一个很棒的数字，这是无法回避的，这真的是一个令人印象深刻的数字。但我认为，如果我们没有新的德尔塔变异毒株，我们会讨论的话题是，这是否会导致通货膨胀，这是否意味着我们将进入缩减通货膨胀等等。但由于德尔塔变异毒株，在我们对此有更多了解之前，我认为它会给我们带来不同的压力，我们会说，好吧，现在我们处于观望模式。很高兴看到就业和经济都在发展--希望在下一份就业报告中，我们就能知道经济能否继续以这样的速度发展。现在看来会的。”Cornerstone Macro 全球政策研究主管 Roberto Perli：</blockquote> “The Fed will have one more employment report before the September meeting. Assuming it will be good as well, a plausible base case is for the FOMC to say at the September meeting that the labor market continued to make good progress, and if the progress continues at the recent pace the committee will be in a position to start tapering its asset purchases over the next few months.&nbsp; That would put the onset of tapering in late December or early January.“So bottom line I think the timeline remains the same.&nbsp; It would be hard to start tapering in September because it would go against both the ‘coming meetings’ (plural) language in the July statement and the notion that the FOMC would provide ample notice before actually starting tapering.” <blockquote>“美联储将在9月会议前再发布一份就业报告。假设情况也不错，那么一个合理的基本情况是，联邦公开市场委员会在 9 月份的会议上表示，劳动力市场继续取得良好进展，如果进展继续以最近的速度进行，委员会将能够在未来几个月内开始缩减资产购买规模。这将使缩减资产购买规模的开始时间在 12 月底或 1 月初。“因此，我认为时间表保持不变。9 月份开始缩减资产规模很难，因为这既违背了 7 月份声明中'即将召开会议'（复数）的措辞，也违背了联邦公开市场委员会在实际开始缩减资产规模之前会提供充分通知的理念。”</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n\"Enough For Tapering To Start\": Wall Street Reacts To A Blockbuster Jobs Report<blockquote>“足以开始缩减规模”：华尔街对重磅就业报告的反应</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzerohedge2021-08-06 22:12\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nWith the jobs report coming in at just shy of 1 million jobs on the establishment survey (and just over 1 million on the Household survey), with strong job creation, a big drop in unemployment rate, higher employment-to-population, rising wages and hours worked, and favorable revisions, consensus - at least judging by the market reaction - is that we have entered the \"substantial progress\" phase, greenlighting a tapering signal by the Fed at the end of the month during the Jackson Hole symposium.<blockquote>就业报告显示，企业调查中的就业岗位略低于 100 万个（家庭调查中的就业岗位略高于 100 万个），就业创造强劲，失业率大幅下降，就业人口比率上升，工资和工作时间上涨，以及有利的修正，至少从市场反应来看，共识是我们已经进入了“实质性进展”阶段，为美联储在本月底杰克逊霍尔研讨会期间发出的缩减规模信号开了绿灯。</blockquote> And yet there is one potential hurdle: the Delta surge and ensuing restrictions and/or lockdowns: as TD Ameritrade's JJ Kinahan says, \"because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.”<blockquote>然而，还有一个潜在的障碍：三角洲的激增以及随之而来的限制和/或封锁： 正如德美利证券（TD Ameritrade）的 JJ Kinahan 所说：“由于德尔塔变异毒株，在我们对此有更多了解之前，我认为它会给我们带来不同的压力，我们会说，好吧，现在我们处于观望模式。很高兴看到就业岗位和经济都在增长--希望在下一份就业报告中，我们就能知道经济能否继续以这样的速度增长。现在看来会的。”</blockquote> Do others agree? Below we have excerpted some analyst and strategist reactions to today's report.<blockquote>其他人同意吗？下面我们摘录了一些分析师和策略师对今天报告的反应。</blockquote> Katherine Judge, CIBC Capital Markets:<blockquote>CIBC 资本市场 Katherine Judge：</blockquote> “With many states set to see the unemployment benefit top-ups expire in early September, healthy job gains should continue ahead, in line with elevated job openings. This print should be enough to allow the Fed to announce an early 2022 tapering of QE at the September meeting.” Chris Turner, head of foreign exchange strategy at ING Bank:<blockquote>“由于许多州的失业救济金补贴将于 9 月初到期，健康的就业增长应与职位空缺的增加保持一致。这一数字应足以让美联储在 9 月份的会议上宣布在 2022 年初缩减量化宽松政策。”荷兰国际集团银行外汇策略主管克里斯·特纳：</blockquote> The stronger-than-expected jobs report makes it more likely that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell may “drop heavy hints” at the Jackson Hole Symposium later this month, that the central bank may prepare to start tapering over subsequent months. The data is positive for the dollar versus the low-yielders such as the yen and euro. Still, the outlook for the greenback “should not necessarily damage the risk environment....Unless U.S. 10 year yields spike aggressively, high yield EM currencies should see demand on dips” Carl Riccadonna, Bloomberg Intelligence economist:<blockquote>强于预期的就业报告使得美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）更有可能在本月晚些时候的杰克逊霍尔研讨会上 “暗示”美联储可能准备在未来几个月开始缩减规模。该数据对美元兑日元和欧元等低收益货币有利。尽管如此，美元的前景“不一定会损害风险环境……除非美国 10 年期国债收益率大幅飙升，否则高收益新兴市场货币应该会在下跌时看到需求”。彭博情报经济学家卡尔·里卡多纳：</blockquote> The jobs report is “sturdy, but not as strong as it looks.” In addition to the modest fade in the pace of private-sector hiring (703,000 in July vs. 769,000 in June), much of the July gain occurred in the tenuous leisure and hospitality sector -- and that could easily reverse due to Covid-19, he said. This already appears to be evident in metrics such as OpenTable bookings. “So if we look at private-sector hiring outside of leisure and hospitality, today’s reported gain was 323,000, a bit slower than the prior month’s 375,000. This tells us that underlying economic momentum is steady-state, not accelerating.” Neil Dutta, economist at Renaissance Macro:<blockquote>就业报告 “稳健，但并不像看起来那么强劲”。他说，除了私营部门招聘速度略有放缓（7 月份为 703,000 人，6 月份为 769,000 人）之外，7 月份的大部分增长都发生在脆弱的休闲和酒店业，而且由于 Covid-19，这种情况很容易逆转。这在OpenTable预订等指标中似乎已经很明显了。“因此，如果我们看看休闲和酒店业以外的私营部门招聘情况，今天报告的增幅为 32.3 万人，略低于上月的 37.5 万人。这告诉我们，潜在的经济动能是稳定的，而不是加速的。”Neil Dutta，Renaissance Macro 经济学家:</blockquote> The FOMC could upgrade its language in the September statement to say that the economy is “on track for substantial further progress,” which would lead to a declaration of achievement of substantial further progress in “November at the earliest.”&nbsp; Tapering, in that event, could begin as early as December. JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade:<blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会可能会在 9 月份的声明中升级措辞，称经济 “有望取得实质性进一步进展”，这将导致 “最早在 11 月 ”宣布取得实质性进一步进展。在这种情况下，缩减规模最早可能在 12 月开始。德美利证券首席市场策略师 JJ Kinahan：</blockquote> “It’s a great number, there’s no way around that, it really is an impressive number. But I think if we didn’t have this new delta variant coming up, the conversation we’d be having is, is this inflationary, does this mean we’ll go into a taper, etc. But because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.” Roberto Perli, head of global policy research at Cornerstone Macro:<blockquote>“这是一个很棒的数字，这是无法回避的，这真的是一个令人印象深刻的数字。但我认为，如果我们没有新的德尔塔变异毒株，我们会讨论的话题是，这是否会导致通货膨胀，这是否意味着我们将进入缩减通货膨胀等等。但由于德尔塔变异毒株，在我们对此有更多了解之前，我认为它会给我们带来不同的压力，我们会说，好吧，现在我们处于观望模式。很高兴看到就业和经济都在发展--希望在下一份就业报告中，我们就能知道经济能否继续以这样的速度发展。现在看来会的。”Cornerstone Macro 全球政策研究主管 Roberto Perli：</blockquote> “The Fed will have one more employment report before the September meeting. Assuming it will be good as well, a plausible base case is for the FOMC to say at the September meeting that the labor market continued to make good progress, and if the progress continues at the recent pace the committee will be in a position to start tapering its asset purchases over the next few months.&nbsp; That would put the onset of tapering in late December or early January.“So bottom line I think the timeline remains the same.&nbsp; It would be hard to start tapering in September because it would go against both the ‘coming meetings’ (plural) language in the July statement and the notion that the FOMC would provide ample notice before actually starting tapering.” <blockquote>“美联储将在9月会议前再发布一份就业报告。假设情况也不错，那么一个合理的基本情况是，联邦公开市场委员会在 9 月份的会议上表示，劳动力市场继续取得良好进展，如果进展继续以最近的速度进行，委员会将能够在未来几个月内开始缩减资产购买规模。这将使缩减资产购买规模的开始时间在 12 月底或 1 月初。“因此，我认为时间表保持不变。9 月份开始缩减资产规模很难，因为这既违背了 7 月份声明中'即将召开会议'（复数）的措辞，也违背了联邦公开市场委员会在实际开始缩减资产规模之前会提供充分通知的理念。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/enough-tapering-start-wall-street-reacts-blockbuster-jobs-report\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/enough-tapering-start-wall-street-reacts-blockbuster-jobs-report","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1145298738","content_text":"With the jobs report coming in at just shy of 1 million jobs on the establishment survey (and just over 1 million on the Household survey), with strong job creation, a big drop in unemployment rate, higher employment-to-population, rising wages and hours worked, and favorable revisions, consensus - at least judging by the market reaction - is that we have entered the \"substantial progress\" phase, greenlighting a tapering signal by the Fed at the end of the month during the Jackson Hole symposium.\nAnd yet there is one potential hurdle: the Delta surge and ensuing restrictions and/or lockdowns: as TD Ameritrade's JJ Kinahan says, \"because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.”\nDo others agree? Below we have excerpted some analyst and strategist reactions to today's report.\nKatherine Judge, CIBC Capital Markets:\n\n“With many states set to see the unemployment benefit top-ups expire in early September, healthy job gains should continue ahead, in line with elevated job openings. This print should be enough to allow the Fed to announce an early 2022 tapering of QE at the September meeting.”\n\nChris Turner, head of foreign exchange strategy at ING Bank:\n\nThe stronger-than-expected jobs report makes it more likely that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell may “drop heavy hints” at the Jackson Hole Symposium later this month, that the central bank may prepare to start tapering over subsequent months. The data is positive for the dollar versus the low-yielders such as the yen and euro. Still, the outlook for the greenback “should not necessarily damage the risk environment....Unless U.S. 10 year yields spike aggressively, high yield EM currencies should see demand on dips”\n\nCarl Riccadonna, Bloomberg Intelligence economist:\n\nThe jobs report is “sturdy, but not as strong as it looks.” In addition to the modest fade in the pace of private-sector hiring (703,000 in July vs. 769,000 in June), much of the July gain occurred in the tenuous leisure and hospitality sector -- and that could easily reverse due to Covid-19, he said. This already appears to be evident in metrics such as OpenTable bookings. “So if we look at private-sector hiring outside of leisure and hospitality, today’s reported gain was 323,000, a bit slower than the prior month’s 375,000.\nThis tells us that underlying economic momentum is steady-state, not accelerating.”\n\nNeil Dutta, economist at Renaissance Macro:\n\nThe FOMC could upgrade its language in the September statement to say that the economy is “on track for substantial further progress,” which would lead to a declaration of achievement of substantial further progress in “November at the earliest.”  Tapering, in that event, could begin as early as December.\n\nJJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade:\n\n“It’s a great number, there’s no way around that, it really is an impressive number. But I think if we didn’t have this new delta variant coming up, the conversation we’d be having is, is this inflationary, does this mean we’ll go into a taper, etc. But because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.”\n\nRoberto Perli, head of global policy research at Cornerstone Macro:\n\n“The Fed will have one more employment report before the September meeting. Assuming it will be good as well, a plausible base case is for the FOMC to say at the September meeting that the labor market continued to make good progress, and if the progress continues at the recent pace the committee will be in a position to start tapering its asset purchases over the next few months.  That would put the onset of tapering in late December or early January.“So bottom line I think the timeline remains the same.  It would be hard to start tapering in September because it would go against both the ‘coming meetings’ (plural) language in the July statement and the notion that the FOMC would provide ample notice before actually starting tapering.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":891620869,"gmtCreate":1628387573151,"gmtModify":1631891544939,"author":{"id":"3575411260588744","authorId":"3575411260588744","name":"ychong87","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a40c91d7c3735cff09b901a3aac6c7ec","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3575411260588744","idStr":"3575411260588744"},"htmlText":"Still too much money in the markets for the rich&nbsp;","listText":"Still too much money in the markets for the rich&nbsp;","text":"Still too much money in the markets for the rich","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/891620869","repostId":1145298738,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1145298738","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628259150,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1145298738?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-06 22:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"\"Enough For Tapering To Start\": Wall Street Reacts To A Blockbuster Jobs Report<blockquote>“足以开始缩减规模”：华尔街对重磅就业报告的反应</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1145298738","media":"zerohedge","summary":"With the jobs report coming in at just shy of 1 million jobs on the establishment survey (and just o","content":"With the jobs report coming in at just shy of 1 million jobs on the establishment survey (and just over 1 million on the Household survey), with strong job creation, a big drop in unemployment rate, higher employment-to-population, rising wages and hours worked, and favorable revisions, consensus - at least judging by the market reaction - is that we have entered the \"substantial progress\" phase, greenlighting a tapering signal by the Fed at the end of the month during the Jackson Hole symposium.<blockquote>就业报告显示，企业调查中的就业岗位略低于 100 万个（家庭调查中的就业岗位略高于 100 万个），就业创造强劲，失业率大幅下降，就业人口比率上升，工资和工作时间上涨，以及有利的修正，至少从市场反应来看，共识是我们已经进入了“实质性进展”阶段，为美联储在本月底杰克逊霍尔研讨会期间发出的缩减规模信号开了绿灯。</blockquote> And yet there is one potential hurdle: the Delta surge and ensuing restrictions and/or lockdowns: as TD Ameritrade's JJ Kinahan says, \"because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.”<blockquote>然而，还有一个潜在的障碍：三角洲的激增以及随之而来的限制和/或封锁： 正如德美利证券（TD Ameritrade）的 JJ Kinahan 所说：“由于德尔塔变异毒株，在我们对此有更多了解之前，我认为它会给我们带来不同的压力，我们会说，好吧，现在我们处于观望模式。很高兴看到就业岗位和经济都在增长--希望在下一份就业报告中，我们就能知道经济能否继续以这样的速度增长。现在看来会的。”</blockquote> Do others agree? Below we have excerpted some analyst and strategist reactions to today's report.<blockquote>其他人同意吗？下面我们摘录了一些分析师和策略师对今天报告的反应。</blockquote> Katherine Judge, CIBC Capital Markets:<blockquote>CIBC 资本市场 Katherine Judge：</blockquote> “With many states set to see the unemployment benefit top-ups expire in early September, healthy job gains should continue ahead, in line with elevated job openings. This print should be enough to allow the Fed to announce an early 2022 tapering of QE at the September meeting.” Chris Turner, head of foreign exchange strategy at ING Bank:<blockquote>“由于许多州的失业救济金补贴将于 9 月初到期，健康的就业增长应与职位空缺的增加保持一致。这一数字应足以让美联储在 9 月份的会议上宣布在 2022 年初缩减量化宽松政策。”荷兰国际集团银行外汇策略主管克里斯·特纳：</blockquote> The stronger-than-expected jobs report makes it more likely that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell may “drop heavy hints” at the Jackson Hole Symposium later this month, that the central bank may prepare to start tapering over subsequent months. The data is positive for the dollar versus the low-yielders such as the yen and euro. Still, the outlook for the greenback “should not necessarily damage the risk environment....Unless U.S. 10 year yields spike aggressively, high yield EM currencies should see demand on dips” Carl Riccadonna, Bloomberg Intelligence economist:<blockquote>强于预期的就业报告使得美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）更有可能在本月晚些时候的杰克逊霍尔研讨会上 “暗示”美联储可能准备在未来几个月开始缩减规模。该数据对美元兑日元和欧元等低收益货币有利。尽管如此，美元的前景“不一定会损害风险环境……除非美国 10 年期国债收益率大幅飙升，否则高收益新兴市场货币应该会在下跌时看到需求”。彭博情报经济学家卡尔·里卡多纳：</blockquote> The jobs report is “sturdy, but not as strong as it looks.” In addition to the modest fade in the pace of private-sector hiring (703,000 in July vs. 769,000 in June), much of the July gain occurred in the tenuous leisure and hospitality sector -- and that could easily reverse due to Covid-19, he said. This already appears to be evident in metrics such as OpenTable bookings. “So if we look at private-sector hiring outside of leisure and hospitality, today’s reported gain was 323,000, a bit slower than the prior month’s 375,000. This tells us that underlying economic momentum is steady-state, not accelerating.” Neil Dutta, economist at Renaissance Macro:<blockquote>就业报告 “稳健，但并不像看起来那么强劲”。他说，除了私营部门招聘速度略有放缓（7 月份为 703,000 人，6 月份为 769,000 人）之外，7 月份的大部分增长都发生在脆弱的休闲和酒店业，而且由于 Covid-19，这种情况很容易逆转。这在OpenTable预订等指标中似乎已经很明显了。“因此，如果我们看看休闲和酒店业以外的私营部门招聘情况，今天报告的增幅为 32.3 万人，略低于上月的 37.5 万人。这告诉我们，潜在的经济动能是稳定的，而不是加速的。”Neil Dutta，Renaissance Macro 经济学家:</blockquote> The FOMC could upgrade its language in the September statement to say that the economy is “on track for substantial further progress,” which would lead to a declaration of achievement of substantial further progress in “November at the earliest.”&nbsp; Tapering, in that event, could begin as early as December. JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade:<blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会可能会在 9 月份的声明中升级措辞，称经济 “有望取得实质性进一步进展”，这将导致 “最早在 11 月 ”宣布取得实质性进一步进展。在这种情况下，缩减规模最早可能在 12 月开始。德美利证券首席市场策略师 JJ Kinahan：</blockquote> “It’s a great number, there’s no way around that, it really is an impressive number. But I think if we didn’t have this new delta variant coming up, the conversation we’d be having is, is this inflationary, does this mean we’ll go into a taper, etc. But because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.” Roberto Perli, head of global policy research at Cornerstone Macro:<blockquote>“这是一个很棒的数字，这是无法回避的，这真的是一个令人印象深刻的数字。但我认为，如果我们没有新的德尔塔变异毒株，我们会讨论的话题是，这是否会导致通货膨胀，这是否意味着我们将进入缩减通货膨胀等等。但由于德尔塔变异毒株，在我们对此有更多了解之前，我认为它会给我们带来不同的压力，我们会说，好吧，现在我们处于观望模式。很高兴看到就业和经济都在发展--希望在下一份就业报告中，我们就能知道经济能否继续以这样的速度发展。现在看来会的。”Cornerstone Macro 全球政策研究主管 Roberto Perli：</blockquote> “The Fed will have one more employment report before the September meeting. Assuming it will be good as well, a plausible base case is for the FOMC to say at the September meeting that the labor market continued to make good progress, and if the progress continues at the recent pace the committee will be in a position to start tapering its asset purchases over the next few months.&nbsp; That would put the onset of tapering in late December or early January.“So bottom line I think the timeline remains the same.&nbsp; It would be hard to start tapering in September because it would go against both the ‘coming meetings’ (plural) language in the July statement and the notion that the FOMC would provide ample notice before actually starting tapering.” <blockquote>“美联储将在9月会议前再发布一份就业报告。假设情况也不错，那么一个合理的基本情况是，联邦公开市场委员会在 9 月份的会议上表示，劳动力市场继续取得良好进展，如果进展继续以最近的速度进行，委员会将能够在未来几个月内开始缩减资产购买规模。这将使缩减资产购买规模的开始时间在 12 月底或 1 月初。“因此，我认为时间表保持不变。9 月份开始缩减资产规模很难，因为这既违背了 7 月份声明中'即将召开会议'（复数）的措辞，也违背了联邦公开市场委员会在实际开始缩减资产规模之前会提供充分通知的理念。”</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n\"Enough For Tapering To Start\": Wall Street Reacts To A Blockbuster Jobs Report<blockquote>“足以开始缩减规模”：华尔街对重磅就业报告的反应</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzerohedge2021-08-06 22:12\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nWith the jobs report coming in at just shy of 1 million jobs on the establishment survey (and just over 1 million on the Household survey), with strong job creation, a big drop in unemployment rate, higher employment-to-population, rising wages and hours worked, and favorable revisions, consensus - at least judging by the market reaction - is that we have entered the \"substantial progress\" phase, greenlighting a tapering signal by the Fed at the end of the month during the Jackson Hole symposium.<blockquote>就业报告显示，企业调查中的就业岗位略低于 100 万个（家庭调查中的就业岗位略高于 100 万个），就业创造强劲，失业率大幅下降，就业人口比率上升，工资和工作时间上涨，以及有利的修正，至少从市场反应来看，共识是我们已经进入了“实质性进展”阶段，为美联储在本月底杰克逊霍尔研讨会期间发出的缩减规模信号开了绿灯。</blockquote> And yet there is one potential hurdle: the Delta surge and ensuing restrictions and/or lockdowns: as TD Ameritrade's JJ Kinahan says, \"because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.”<blockquote>然而，还有一个潜在的障碍：三角洲的激增以及随之而来的限制和/或封锁： 正如德美利证券（TD Ameritrade）的 JJ Kinahan 所说：“由于德尔塔变异毒株，在我们对此有更多了解之前，我认为它会给我们带来不同的压力，我们会说，好吧，现在我们处于观望模式。很高兴看到就业岗位和经济都在增长--希望在下一份就业报告中，我们就能知道经济能否继续以这样的速度增长。现在看来会的。”</blockquote> Do others agree? Below we have excerpted some analyst and strategist reactions to today's report.<blockquote>其他人同意吗？下面我们摘录了一些分析师和策略师对今天报告的反应。</blockquote> Katherine Judge, CIBC Capital Markets:<blockquote>CIBC 资本市场 Katherine Judge：</blockquote> “With many states set to see the unemployment benefit top-ups expire in early September, healthy job gains should continue ahead, in line with elevated job openings. This print should be enough to allow the Fed to announce an early 2022 tapering of QE at the September meeting.” Chris Turner, head of foreign exchange strategy at ING Bank:<blockquote>“由于许多州的失业救济金补贴将于 9 月初到期，健康的就业增长应与职位空缺的增加保持一致。这一数字应足以让美联储在 9 月份的会议上宣布在 2022 年初缩减量化宽松政策。”荷兰国际集团银行外汇策略主管克里斯·特纳：</blockquote> The stronger-than-expected jobs report makes it more likely that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell may “drop heavy hints” at the Jackson Hole Symposium later this month, that the central bank may prepare to start tapering over subsequent months. The data is positive for the dollar versus the low-yielders such as the yen and euro. Still, the outlook for the greenback “should not necessarily damage the risk environment....Unless U.S. 10 year yields spike aggressively, high yield EM currencies should see demand on dips” Carl Riccadonna, Bloomberg Intelligence economist:<blockquote>强于预期的就业报告使得美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）更有可能在本月晚些时候的杰克逊霍尔研讨会上 “暗示”美联储可能准备在未来几个月开始缩减规模。该数据对美元兑日元和欧元等低收益货币有利。尽管如此，美元的前景“不一定会损害风险环境……除非美国 10 年期国债收益率大幅飙升，否则高收益新兴市场货币应该会在下跌时看到需求”。彭博情报经济学家卡尔·里卡多纳：</blockquote> The jobs report is “sturdy, but not as strong as it looks.” In addition to the modest fade in the pace of private-sector hiring (703,000 in July vs. 769,000 in June), much of the July gain occurred in the tenuous leisure and hospitality sector -- and that could easily reverse due to Covid-19, he said. This already appears to be evident in metrics such as OpenTable bookings. “So if we look at private-sector hiring outside of leisure and hospitality, today’s reported gain was 323,000, a bit slower than the prior month’s 375,000. This tells us that underlying economic momentum is steady-state, not accelerating.” Neil Dutta, economist at Renaissance Macro:<blockquote>就业报告 “稳健，但并不像看起来那么强劲”。他说，除了私营部门招聘速度略有放缓（7 月份为 703,000 人，6 月份为 769,000 人）之外，7 月份的大部分增长都发生在脆弱的休闲和酒店业，而且由于 Covid-19，这种情况很容易逆转。这在OpenTable预订等指标中似乎已经很明显了。“因此，如果我们看看休闲和酒店业以外的私营部门招聘情况，今天报告的增幅为 32.3 万人，略低于上月的 37.5 万人。这告诉我们，潜在的经济动能是稳定的，而不是加速的。”Neil Dutta，Renaissance Macro 经济学家:</blockquote> The FOMC could upgrade its language in the September statement to say that the economy is “on track for substantial further progress,” which would lead to a declaration of achievement of substantial further progress in “November at the earliest.”&nbsp; Tapering, in that event, could begin as early as December. JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade:<blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会可能会在 9 月份的声明中升级措辞，称经济 “有望取得实质性进一步进展”，这将导致 “最早在 11 月 ”宣布取得实质性进一步进展。在这种情况下，缩减规模最早可能在 12 月开始。德美利证券首席市场策略师 JJ Kinahan：</blockquote> “It’s a great number, there’s no way around that, it really is an impressive number. But I think if we didn’t have this new delta variant coming up, the conversation we’d be having is, is this inflationary, does this mean we’ll go into a taper, etc. But because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.” Roberto Perli, head of global policy research at Cornerstone Macro:<blockquote>“这是一个很棒的数字，这是无法回避的，这真的是一个令人印象深刻的数字。但我认为，如果我们没有新的德尔塔变异毒株，我们会讨论的话题是，这是否会导致通货膨胀，这是否意味着我们将进入缩减通货膨胀等等。但由于德尔塔变异毒株，在我们对此有更多了解之前，我认为它会给我们带来不同的压力，我们会说，好吧，现在我们处于观望模式。很高兴看到就业和经济都在发展--希望在下一份就业报告中，我们就能知道经济能否继续以这样的速度发展。现在看来会的。”Cornerstone Macro 全球政策研究主管 Roberto Perli：</blockquote> “The Fed will have one more employment report before the September meeting. Assuming it will be good as well, a plausible base case is for the FOMC to say at the September meeting that the labor market continued to make good progress, and if the progress continues at the recent pace the committee will be in a position to start tapering its asset purchases over the next few months.&nbsp; That would put the onset of tapering in late December or early January.“So bottom line I think the timeline remains the same.&nbsp; It would be hard to start tapering in September because it would go against both the ‘coming meetings’ (plural) language in the July statement and the notion that the FOMC would provide ample notice before actually starting tapering.” <blockquote>“美联储将在9月会议前再发布一份就业报告。假设情况也不错，那么一个合理的基本情况是，联邦公开市场委员会在 9 月份的会议上表示，劳动力市场继续取得良好进展，如果进展继续以最近的速度进行，委员会将能够在未来几个月内开始缩减资产购买规模。这将使缩减资产购买规模的开始时间在 12 月底或 1 月初。“因此，我认为时间表保持不变。9 月份开始缩减资产规模很难，因为这既违背了 7 月份声明中'即将召开会议'（复数）的措辞，也违背了联邦公开市场委员会在实际开始缩减资产规模之前会提供充分通知的理念。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/enough-tapering-start-wall-street-reacts-blockbuster-jobs-report\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/enough-tapering-start-wall-street-reacts-blockbuster-jobs-report","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1145298738","content_text":"With the jobs report coming in at just shy of 1 million jobs on the establishment survey (and just over 1 million on the Household survey), with strong job creation, a big drop in unemployment rate, higher employment-to-population, rising wages and hours worked, and favorable revisions, consensus - at least judging by the market reaction - is that we have entered the \"substantial progress\" phase, greenlighting a tapering signal by the Fed at the end of the month during the Jackson Hole symposium.\nAnd yet there is one potential hurdle: the Delta surge and ensuing restrictions and/or lockdowns: as TD Ameritrade's JJ Kinahan says, \"because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.”\nDo others agree? Below we have excerpted some analyst and strategist reactions to today's report.\nKatherine Judge, CIBC Capital Markets:\n\n“With many states set to see the unemployment benefit top-ups expire in early September, healthy job gains should continue ahead, in line with elevated job openings. This print should be enough to allow the Fed to announce an early 2022 tapering of QE at the September meeting.”\n\nChris Turner, head of foreign exchange strategy at ING Bank:\n\nThe stronger-than-expected jobs report makes it more likely that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell may “drop heavy hints” at the Jackson Hole Symposium later this month, that the central bank may prepare to start tapering over subsequent months. The data is positive for the dollar versus the low-yielders such as the yen and euro. Still, the outlook for the greenback “should not necessarily damage the risk environment....Unless U.S. 10 year yields spike aggressively, high yield EM currencies should see demand on dips”\n\nCarl Riccadonna, Bloomberg Intelligence economist:\n\nThe jobs report is “sturdy, but not as strong as it looks.” In addition to the modest fade in the pace of private-sector hiring (703,000 in July vs. 769,000 in June), much of the July gain occurred in the tenuous leisure and hospitality sector -- and that could easily reverse due to Covid-19, he said. This already appears to be evident in metrics such as OpenTable bookings. “So if we look at private-sector hiring outside of leisure and hospitality, today’s reported gain was 323,000, a bit slower than the prior month’s 375,000.\nThis tells us that underlying economic momentum is steady-state, not accelerating.”\n\nNeil Dutta, economist at Renaissance Macro:\n\nThe FOMC could upgrade its language in the September statement to say that the economy is “on track for substantial further progress,” which would lead to a declaration of achievement of substantial further progress in “November at the earliest.”  Tapering, in that event, could begin as early as December.\n\nJJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade:\n\n“It’s a great number, there’s no way around that, it really is an impressive number. But I think if we didn’t have this new delta variant coming up, the conversation we’d be having is, is this inflationary, does this mean we’ll go into a taper, etc. But because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.”\n\nRoberto Perli, head of global policy research at Cornerstone Macro:\n\n“The Fed will have one more employment report before the September meeting. Assuming it will be good as well, a plausible base case is for the FOMC to say at the September meeting that the labor market continued to make good progress, and if the progress continues at the recent pace the committee will be in a position to start tapering its asset purchases over the next few months.  That would put the onset of tapering in late December or early January.“So bottom line I think the timeline remains the same.  It would be hard to start tapering in September because it would go against both the ‘coming meetings’ (plural) language in the July statement and the notion that the FOMC would provide ample notice before actually starting tapering.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5461220,"gmtCreate":1628399796423,"gmtModify":1631891544954,"authorId":3575433293784452,"author":{"id":3575433293784452,"idStr":"3575433293784452","authorId":3575433293784452,"name":"erichosk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":891620869,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"yup","text":"yup","html":"yup"},{"id":5461159,"gmtCreate":1628399178088,"gmtModify":1631891544938,"authorId":3583980018665683,"author":{"id":3583980018665683,"idStr":"3583980018665683","authorId":3583980018665683,"name":"JazzKhor","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72c4959a5beb2fd83e1df2d25eb6a2c0","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":891620869,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Ya","text":"Ya","html":"Ya"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":891690654,"gmtCreate":1628384263478,"gmtModify":1633751370116,"author":{"id":"3576497026121990","authorId":"3576497026121990","name":"woshihui","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16c7aa4a45306830522180ff7b026e56","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3576497026121990","idStr":"3576497026121990"},"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/891690654","repostId":1145298738,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1145298738","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628259150,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1145298738?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-06 22:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"\"Enough For Tapering To Start\": Wall Street Reacts To A Blockbuster Jobs Report<blockquote>“足以开始缩减规模”：华尔街对重磅就业报告的反应</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1145298738","media":"zerohedge","summary":"With the jobs report coming in at just shy of 1 million jobs on the establishment survey (and just o","content":"With the jobs report coming in at just shy of 1 million jobs on the establishment survey (and just over 1 million on the Household survey), with strong job creation, a big drop in unemployment rate, higher employment-to-population, rising wages and hours worked, and favorable revisions, consensus - at least judging by the market reaction - is that we have entered the \"substantial progress\" phase, greenlighting a tapering signal by the Fed at the end of the month during the Jackson Hole symposium.<blockquote>就业报告显示，企业调查中的就业岗位略低于 100 万个（家庭调查中的就业岗位略高于 100 万个），就业创造强劲，失业率大幅下降，就业人口比率上升，工资和工作时间上涨，以及有利的修正，至少从市场反应来看，共识是我们已经进入了“实质性进展”阶段，为美联储在本月底杰克逊霍尔研讨会期间发出的缩减规模信号开了绿灯。</blockquote> And yet there is one potential hurdle: the Delta surge and ensuing restrictions and/or lockdowns: as TD Ameritrade's JJ Kinahan says, \"because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.”<blockquote>然而，还有一个潜在的障碍：三角洲的激增以及随之而来的限制和/或封锁： 正如德美利证券（TD Ameritrade）的 JJ Kinahan 所说：“由于德尔塔变异毒株，在我们对此有更多了解之前，我认为它会给我们带来不同的压力，我们会说，好吧，现在我们处于观望模式。很高兴看到就业岗位和经济都在增长--希望在下一份就业报告中，我们就能知道经济能否继续以这样的速度增长。现在看来会的。”</blockquote> Do others agree? Below we have excerpted some analyst and strategist reactions to today's report.<blockquote>其他人同意吗？下面我们摘录了一些分析师和策略师对今天报告的反应。</blockquote> Katherine Judge, CIBC Capital Markets:<blockquote>CIBC 资本市场 Katherine Judge：</blockquote> “With many states set to see the unemployment benefit top-ups expire in early September, healthy job gains should continue ahead, in line with elevated job openings. This print should be enough to allow the Fed to announce an early 2022 tapering of QE at the September meeting.” Chris Turner, head of foreign exchange strategy at ING Bank:<blockquote>“由于许多州的失业救济金补贴将于 9 月初到期，健康的就业增长应与职位空缺的增加保持一致。这一数字应足以让美联储在 9 月份的会议上宣布在 2022 年初缩减量化宽松政策。”荷兰国际集团银行外汇策略主管克里斯·特纳：</blockquote> The stronger-than-expected jobs report makes it more likely that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell may “drop heavy hints” at the Jackson Hole Symposium later this month, that the central bank may prepare to start tapering over subsequent months. The data is positive for the dollar versus the low-yielders such as the yen and euro. Still, the outlook for the greenback “should not necessarily damage the risk environment....Unless U.S. 10 year yields spike aggressively, high yield EM currencies should see demand on dips” Carl Riccadonna, Bloomberg Intelligence economist:<blockquote>强于预期的就业报告使得美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）更有可能在本月晚些时候的杰克逊霍尔研讨会上 “暗示”美联储可能准备在未来几个月开始缩减规模。该数据对美元兑日元和欧元等低收益货币有利。尽管如此，美元的前景“不一定会损害风险环境……除非美国 10 年期国债收益率大幅飙升，否则高收益新兴市场货币应该会在下跌时看到需求”。彭博情报经济学家卡尔·里卡多纳：</blockquote> The jobs report is “sturdy, but not as strong as it looks.” In addition to the modest fade in the pace of private-sector hiring (703,000 in July vs. 769,000 in June), much of the July gain occurred in the tenuous leisure and hospitality sector -- and that could easily reverse due to Covid-19, he said. This already appears to be evident in metrics such as OpenTable bookings. “So if we look at private-sector hiring outside of leisure and hospitality, today’s reported gain was 323,000, a bit slower than the prior month’s 375,000. This tells us that underlying economic momentum is steady-state, not accelerating.” Neil Dutta, economist at Renaissance Macro:<blockquote>就业报告 “稳健，但并不像看起来那么强劲”。他说，除了私营部门招聘速度略有放缓（7 月份为 703,000 人，6 月份为 769,000 人）之外，7 月份的大部分增长都发生在脆弱的休闲和酒店业，而且由于 Covid-19，这种情况很容易逆转。这在OpenTable预订等指标中似乎已经很明显了。“因此，如果我们看看休闲和酒店业以外的私营部门招聘情况，今天报告的增幅为 32.3 万人，略低于上月的 37.5 万人。这告诉我们，潜在的经济动能是稳定的，而不是加速的。”Neil Dutta，Renaissance Macro 经济学家:</blockquote> The FOMC could upgrade its language in the September statement to say that the economy is “on track for substantial further progress,” which would lead to a declaration of achievement of substantial further progress in “November at the earliest.”&nbsp; Tapering, in that event, could begin as early as December. JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade:<blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会可能会在 9 月份的声明中升级措辞，称经济 “有望取得实质性进一步进展”，这将导致 “最早在 11 月 ”宣布取得实质性进一步进展。在这种情况下，缩减规模最早可能在 12 月开始。德美利证券首席市场策略师 JJ Kinahan：</blockquote> “It’s a great number, there’s no way around that, it really is an impressive number. But I think if we didn’t have this new delta variant coming up, the conversation we’d be having is, is this inflationary, does this mean we’ll go into a taper, etc. But because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.” Roberto Perli, head of global policy research at Cornerstone Macro:<blockquote>“这是一个很棒的数字，这是无法回避的，这真的是一个令人印象深刻的数字。但我认为，如果我们没有新的德尔塔变异毒株，我们会讨论的话题是，这是否会导致通货膨胀，这是否意味着我们将进入缩减通货膨胀等等。但由于德尔塔变异毒株，在我们对此有更多了解之前，我认为它会给我们带来不同的压力，我们会说，好吧，现在我们处于观望模式。很高兴看到就业和经济都在发展--希望在下一份就业报告中，我们就能知道经济能否继续以这样的速度发展。现在看来会的。”Cornerstone Macro 全球政策研究主管 Roberto Perli：</blockquote> “The Fed will have one more employment report before the September meeting. Assuming it will be good as well, a plausible base case is for the FOMC to say at the September meeting that the labor market continued to make good progress, and if the progress continues at the recent pace the committee will be in a position to start tapering its asset purchases over the next few months.&nbsp; That would put the onset of tapering in late December or early January.“So bottom line I think the timeline remains the same.&nbsp; It would be hard to start tapering in September because it would go against both the ‘coming meetings’ (plural) language in the July statement and the notion that the FOMC would provide ample notice before actually starting tapering.” <blockquote>“美联储将在9月会议前再发布一份就业报告。假设情况也不错，那么一个合理的基本情况是，联邦公开市场委员会在 9 月份的会议上表示，劳动力市场继续取得良好进展，如果进展继续以最近的速度进行，委员会将能够在未来几个月内开始缩减资产购买规模。这将使缩减资产购买规模的开始时间在 12 月底或 1 月初。“因此，我认为时间表保持不变。9 月份开始缩减资产规模很难，因为这既违背了 7 月份声明中'即将召开会议'（复数）的措辞，也违背了联邦公开市场委员会在实际开始缩减资产规模之前会提供充分通知的理念。”</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.”<blockquote>然而，还有一个潜在的障碍：三角洲的激增以及随之而来的限制和/或封锁： 正如德美利证券（TD Ameritrade）的 JJ Kinahan 所说：“由于德尔塔变异毒株，在我们对此有更多了解之前，我认为它会给我们带来不同的压力，我们会说，好吧，现在我们处于观望模式。很高兴看到就业岗位和经济都在增长--希望在下一份就业报告中，我们就能知道经济能否继续以这样的速度增长。现在看来会的。”</blockquote> Do others agree? Below we have excerpted some analyst and strategist reactions to today's report.<blockquote>其他人同意吗？下面我们摘录了一些分析师和策略师对今天报告的反应。</blockquote> Katherine Judge, CIBC Capital Markets:<blockquote>CIBC 资本市场 Katherine Judge：</blockquote> “With many states set to see the unemployment benefit top-ups expire in early September, healthy job gains should continue ahead, in line with elevated job openings. This print should be enough to allow the Fed to announce an early 2022 tapering of QE at the September meeting.” Chris Turner, head of foreign exchange strategy at ING Bank:<blockquote>“由于许多州的失业救济金补贴将于 9 月初到期，健康的就业增长应与职位空缺的增加保持一致。这一数字应足以让美联储在 9 月份的会议上宣布在 2022 年初缩减量化宽松政策。”荷兰国际集团银行外汇策略主管克里斯·特纳：</blockquote> The stronger-than-expected jobs report makes it more likely that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell may “drop heavy hints” at the Jackson Hole Symposium later this month, that the central bank may prepare to start tapering over subsequent months. The data is positive for the dollar versus the low-yielders such as the yen and euro. Still, the outlook for the greenback “should not necessarily damage the risk environment....Unless U.S. 10 year yields spike aggressively, high yield EM currencies should see demand on dips” Carl Riccadonna, Bloomberg Intelligence economist:<blockquote>强于预期的就业报告使得美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）更有可能在本月晚些时候的杰克逊霍尔研讨会上 “暗示”美联储可能准备在未来几个月开始缩减规模。该数据对美元兑日元和欧元等低收益货币有利。尽管如此，美元的前景“不一定会损害风险环境……除非美国 10 年期国债收益率大幅飙升，否则高收益新兴市场货币应该会在下跌时看到需求”。彭博情报经济学家卡尔·里卡多纳：</blockquote> The jobs report is “sturdy, but not as strong as it looks.” In addition to the modest fade in the pace of private-sector hiring (703,000 in July vs. 769,000 in June), much of the July gain occurred in the tenuous leisure and hospitality sector -- and that could easily reverse due to Covid-19, he said. This already appears to be evident in metrics such as OpenTable bookings. “So if we look at private-sector hiring outside of leisure and hospitality, today’s reported gain was 323,000, a bit slower than the prior month’s 375,000. This tells us that underlying economic momentum is steady-state, not accelerating.” Neil Dutta, economist at Renaissance Macro:<blockquote>就业报告 “稳健，但并不像看起来那么强劲”。他说，除了私营部门招聘速度略有放缓（7 月份为 703,000 人，6 月份为 769,000 人）之外，7 月份的大部分增长都发生在脆弱的休闲和酒店业，而且由于 Covid-19，这种情况很容易逆转。这在OpenTable预订等指标中似乎已经很明显了。“因此，如果我们看看休闲和酒店业以外的私营部门招聘情况，今天报告的增幅为 32.3 万人，略低于上月的 37.5 万人。这告诉我们，潜在的经济动能是稳定的，而不是加速的。”Neil Dutta，Renaissance Macro 经济学家:</blockquote> The FOMC could upgrade its language in the September statement to say that the economy is “on track for substantial further progress,” which would lead to a declaration of achievement of substantial further progress in “November at the earliest.”&nbsp; Tapering, in that event, could begin as early as December. JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade:<blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会可能会在 9 月份的声明中升级措辞，称经济 “有望取得实质性进一步进展”，这将导致 “最早在 11 月 ”宣布取得实质性进一步进展。在这种情况下，缩减规模最早可能在 12 月开始。德美利证券首席市场策略师 JJ Kinahan：</blockquote> “It’s a great number, there’s no way around that, it really is an impressive number. But I think if we didn’t have this new delta variant coming up, the conversation we’d be having is, is this inflationary, does this mean we’ll go into a taper, etc. But because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.” Roberto Perli, head of global policy research at Cornerstone Macro:<blockquote>“这是一个很棒的数字，这是无法回避的，这真的是一个令人印象深刻的数字。但我认为，如果我们没有新的德尔塔变异毒株，我们会讨论的话题是，这是否会导致通货膨胀，这是否意味着我们将进入缩减通货膨胀等等。但由于德尔塔变异毒株，在我们对此有更多了解之前，我认为它会给我们带来不同的压力，我们会说，好吧，现在我们处于观望模式。很高兴看到就业和经济都在发展--希望在下一份就业报告中，我们就能知道经济能否继续以这样的速度发展。现在看来会的。”Cornerstone Macro 全球政策研究主管 Roberto Perli：</blockquote> “The Fed will have one more employment report before the September meeting. Assuming it will be good as well, a plausible base case is for the FOMC to say at the September meeting that the labor market continued to make good progress, and if the progress continues at the recent pace the committee will be in a position to start tapering its asset purchases over the next few months.&nbsp; That would put the onset of tapering in late December or early January.“So bottom line I think the timeline remains the same.&nbsp; It would be hard to start tapering in September because it would go against both the ‘coming meetings’ (plural) language in the July statement and the notion that the FOMC would provide ample notice before actually starting tapering.” <blockquote>“美联储将在9月会议前再发布一份就业报告。假设情况也不错，那么一个合理的基本情况是，联邦公开市场委员会在 9 月份的会议上表示，劳动力市场继续取得良好进展，如果进展继续以最近的速度进行，委员会将能够在未来几个月内开始缩减资产购买规模。这将使缩减资产购买规模的开始时间在 12 月底或 1 月初。“因此，我认为时间表保持不变。9 月份开始缩减资产规模很难，因为这既违背了 7 月份声明中'即将召开会议'（复数）的措辞，也违背了联邦公开市场委员会在实际开始缩减资产规模之前会提供充分通知的理念。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/enough-tapering-start-wall-street-reacts-blockbuster-jobs-report\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/enough-tapering-start-wall-street-reacts-blockbuster-jobs-report","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1145298738","content_text":"With the jobs report coming in at just shy of 1 million jobs on the establishment survey (and just over 1 million on the Household survey), with strong job creation, a big drop in unemployment rate, higher employment-to-population, rising wages and hours worked, and favorable revisions, consensus - at least judging by the market reaction - is that we have entered the \"substantial progress\" phase, greenlighting a tapering signal by the Fed at the end of the month during the Jackson Hole symposium.\nAnd yet there is one potential hurdle: the Delta surge and ensuing restrictions and/or lockdowns: as TD Ameritrade's JJ Kinahan says, \"because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.”\nDo others agree? Below we have excerpted some analyst and strategist reactions to today's report.\nKatherine Judge, CIBC Capital Markets:\n\n“With many states set to see the unemployment benefit top-ups expire in early September, healthy job gains should continue ahead, in line with elevated job openings. This print should be enough to allow the Fed to announce an early 2022 tapering of QE at the September meeting.”\n\nChris Turner, head of foreign exchange strategy at ING Bank:\n\nThe stronger-than-expected jobs report makes it more likely that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell may “drop heavy hints” at the Jackson Hole Symposium later this month, that the central bank may prepare to start tapering over subsequent months. The data is positive for the dollar versus the low-yielders such as the yen and euro. Still, the outlook for the greenback “should not necessarily damage the risk environment....Unless U.S. 10 year yields spike aggressively, high yield EM currencies should see demand on dips”\n\nCarl Riccadonna, Bloomberg Intelligence economist:\n\nThe jobs report is “sturdy, but not as strong as it looks.” In addition to the modest fade in the pace of private-sector hiring (703,000 in July vs. 769,000 in June), much of the July gain occurred in the tenuous leisure and hospitality sector -- and that could easily reverse due to Covid-19, he said. This already appears to be evident in metrics such as OpenTable bookings. “So if we look at private-sector hiring outside of leisure and hospitality, today’s reported gain was 323,000, a bit slower than the prior month’s 375,000.\nThis tells us that underlying economic momentum is steady-state, not accelerating.”\n\nNeil Dutta, economist at Renaissance Macro:\n\nThe FOMC could upgrade its language in the September statement to say that the economy is “on track for substantial further progress,” which would lead to a declaration of achievement of substantial further progress in “November at the earliest.”  Tapering, in that event, could begin as early as December.\n\nJJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade:\n\n“It’s a great number, there’s no way around that, it really is an impressive number. But I think if we didn’t have this new delta variant coming up, the conversation we’d be having is, is this inflationary, does this mean we’ll go into a taper, etc. But because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.”\n\nRoberto Perli, head of global policy research at Cornerstone Macro:\n\n“The Fed will have one more employment report before the September meeting. Assuming it will be good as well, a plausible base case is for the FOMC to say at the September meeting that the labor market continued to make good progress, and if the progress continues at the recent pace the committee will be in a position to start tapering its asset purchases over the next few months.  That would put the onset of tapering in late December or early January.“So bottom line I think the timeline remains the same.  It would be hard to start tapering in September because it would go against both the ‘coming meetings’ (plural) language in the July statement and the notion that the FOMC would provide ample notice before actually starting tapering.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":891866694,"gmtCreate":1628379920218,"gmtModify":1631891593642,"author":{"id":"3581623906076754","authorId":"3581623906076754","name":"Ahqiang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1092801a68a2c434616e6e98563cfb6","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3581623906076754","idStr":"3581623906076754"},"htmlText":"Like n comment","listText":"Like n comment","text":"Like n comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/891866694","repostId":1145298738,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1145298738","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628259150,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1145298738?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-06 22:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"\"Enough For Tapering To Start\": Wall Street Reacts To A Blockbuster Jobs Report<blockquote>“足以开始缩减规模”：华尔街对重磅就业报告的反应</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1145298738","media":"zerohedge","summary":"With the jobs report coming in at just shy of 1 million jobs on the establishment survey (and just o","content":"With the jobs report coming in at just shy of 1 million jobs on the establishment survey (and just over 1 million on the Household survey), with strong job creation, a big drop in unemployment rate, higher employment-to-population, rising wages and hours worked, and favorable revisions, consensus - at least judging by the market reaction - is that we have entered the \"substantial progress\" phase, greenlighting a tapering signal by the Fed at the end of the month during the Jackson Hole symposium.<blockquote>就业报告显示，企业调查中的就业岗位略低于 100 万个（家庭调查中的就业岗位略高于 100 万个），就业创造强劲，失业率大幅下降，就业人口比率上升，工资和工作时间上涨，以及有利的修正，至少从市场反应来看，共识是我们已经进入了“实质性进展”阶段，为美联储在本月底杰克逊霍尔研讨会期间发出的缩减规模信号开了绿灯。</blockquote> And yet there is one potential hurdle: the Delta surge and ensuing restrictions and/or lockdowns: as TD Ameritrade's JJ Kinahan says, \"because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.”<blockquote>然而，还有一个潜在的障碍：三角洲的激增以及随之而来的限制和/或封锁： 正如德美利证券（TD Ameritrade）的 JJ Kinahan 所说：“由于德尔塔变异毒株，在我们对此有更多了解之前，我认为它会给我们带来不同的压力，我们会说，好吧，现在我们处于观望模式。很高兴看到就业岗位和经济都在增长--希望在下一份就业报告中，我们就能知道经济能否继续以这样的速度增长。现在看来会的。”</blockquote> Do others agree? Below we have excerpted some analyst and strategist reactions to today's report.<blockquote>其他人同意吗？下面我们摘录了一些分析师和策略师对今天报告的反应。</blockquote> Katherine Judge, CIBC Capital Markets:<blockquote>CIBC 资本市场 Katherine Judge：</blockquote> “With many states set to see the unemployment benefit top-ups expire in early September, healthy job gains should continue ahead, in line with elevated job openings. This print should be enough to allow the Fed to announce an early 2022 tapering of QE at the September meeting.” Chris Turner, head of foreign exchange strategy at ING Bank:<blockquote>“由于许多州的失业救济金补贴将于 9 月初到期，健康的就业增长应与职位空缺的增加保持一致。这一数字应足以让美联储在 9 月份的会议上宣布在 2022 年初缩减量化宽松政策。”荷兰国际集团银行外汇策略主管克里斯·特纳：</blockquote> The stronger-than-expected jobs report makes it more likely that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell may “drop heavy hints” at the Jackson Hole Symposium later this month, that the central bank may prepare to start tapering over subsequent months. The data is positive for the dollar versus the low-yielders such as the yen and euro. Still, the outlook for the greenback “should not necessarily damage the risk environment....Unless U.S. 10 year yields spike aggressively, high yield EM currencies should see demand on dips” Carl Riccadonna, Bloomberg Intelligence economist:<blockquote>强于预期的就业报告使得美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）更有可能在本月晚些时候的杰克逊霍尔研讨会上 “暗示”美联储可能准备在未来几个月开始缩减规模。该数据对美元兑日元和欧元等低收益货币有利。尽管如此，美元的前景“不一定会损害风险环境……除非美国 10 年期国债收益率大幅飙升，否则高收益新兴市场货币应该会在下跌时看到需求”。彭博情报经济学家卡尔·里卡多纳：</blockquote> The jobs report is “sturdy, but not as strong as it looks.” In addition to the modest fade in the pace of private-sector hiring (703,000 in July vs. 769,000 in June), much of the July gain occurred in the tenuous leisure and hospitality sector -- and that could easily reverse due to Covid-19, he said. This already appears to be evident in metrics such as OpenTable bookings. “So if we look at private-sector hiring outside of leisure and hospitality, today’s reported gain was 323,000, a bit slower than the prior month’s 375,000. This tells us that underlying economic momentum is steady-state, not accelerating.” Neil Dutta, economist at Renaissance Macro:<blockquote>就业报告 “稳健，但并不像看起来那么强劲”。他说，除了私营部门招聘速度略有放缓（7 月份为 703,000 人，6 月份为 769,000 人）之外，7 月份的大部分增长都发生在脆弱的休闲和酒店业，而且由于 Covid-19，这种情况很容易逆转。这在OpenTable预订等指标中似乎已经很明显了。“因此，如果我们看看休闲和酒店业以外的私营部门招聘情况，今天报告的增幅为 32.3 万人，略低于上月的 37.5 万人。这告诉我们，潜在的经济动能是稳定的，而不是加速的。”Neil Dutta，Renaissance Macro 经济学家:</blockquote> The FOMC could upgrade its language in the September statement to say that the economy is “on track for substantial further progress,” which would lead to a declaration of achievement of substantial further progress in “November at the earliest.”&nbsp; Tapering, in that event, could begin as early as December. JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade:<blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会可能会在 9 月份的声明中升级措辞，称经济 “有望取得实质性进一步进展”，这将导致 “最早在 11 月 ”宣布取得实质性进一步进展。在这种情况下，缩减规模最早可能在 12 月开始。德美利证券首席市场策略师 JJ Kinahan：</blockquote> “It’s a great number, there’s no way around that, it really is an impressive number. But I think if we didn’t have this new delta variant coming up, the conversation we’d be having is, is this inflationary, does this mean we’ll go into a taper, etc. But because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.” Roberto Perli, head of global policy research at Cornerstone Macro:<blockquote>“这是一个很棒的数字，这是无法回避的，这真的是一个令人印象深刻的数字。但我认为，如果我们没有新的德尔塔变异毒株，我们会讨论的话题是，这是否会导致通货膨胀，这是否意味着我们将进入缩减通货膨胀等等。但由于德尔塔变异毒株，在我们对此有更多了解之前，我认为它会给我们带来不同的压力，我们会说，好吧，现在我们处于观望模式。很高兴看到就业和经济都在发展--希望在下一份就业报告中，我们就能知道经济能否继续以这样的速度发展。现在看来会的。”Cornerstone Macro 全球政策研究主管 Roberto Perli：</blockquote> “The Fed will have one more employment report before the September meeting. Assuming it will be good as well, a plausible base case is for the FOMC to say at the September meeting that the labor market continued to make good progress, and if the progress continues at the recent pace the committee will be in a position to start tapering its asset purchases over the next few months.&nbsp; That would put the onset of tapering in late December or early January.“So bottom line I think the timeline remains the same.&nbsp; It would be hard to start tapering in September because it would go against both the ‘coming meetings’ (plural) language in the July statement and the notion that the FOMC would provide ample notice before actually starting tapering.” <blockquote>“美联储将在9月会议前再发布一份就业报告。假设情况也不错，那么一个合理的基本情况是，联邦公开市场委员会在 9 月份的会议上表示，劳动力市场继续取得良好进展，如果进展继续以最近的速度进行，委员会将能够在未来几个月内开始缩减资产购买规模。这将使缩减资产购买规模的开始时间在 12 月底或 1 月初。“因此，我认为时间表保持不变。9 月份开始缩减资产规模很难，因为这既违背了 7 月份声明中'即将召开会议'（复数）的措辞，也违背了联邦公开市场委员会在实际开始缩减资产规模之前会提供充分通知的理念。”</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n\"Enough For Tapering To Start\": Wall Street Reacts To A Blockbuster Jobs Report<blockquote>“足以开始缩减规模”：华尔街对重磅就业报告的反应</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzerohedge2021-08-06 22:12\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nWith the jobs report coming in at just shy of 1 million jobs on the establishment survey (and just over 1 million on the Household survey), with strong job creation, a big drop in unemployment rate, higher employment-to-population, rising wages and hours worked, and favorable revisions, consensus - at least judging by the market reaction - is that we have entered the \"substantial progress\" phase, greenlighting a tapering signal by the Fed at the end of the month during the Jackson Hole symposium.<blockquote>就业报告显示，企业调查中的就业岗位略低于 100 万个（家庭调查中的就业岗位略高于 100 万个），就业创造强劲，失业率大幅下降，就业人口比率上升，工资和工作时间上涨，以及有利的修正，至少从市场反应来看，共识是我们已经进入了“实质性进展”阶段，为美联储在本月底杰克逊霍尔研讨会期间发出的缩减规模信号开了绿灯。</blockquote> And yet there is one potential hurdle: the Delta surge and ensuing restrictions and/or lockdowns: as TD Ameritrade's JJ Kinahan says, \"because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.”<blockquote>然而，还有一个潜在的障碍：三角洲的激增以及随之而来的限制和/或封锁： 正如德美利证券（TD Ameritrade）的 JJ Kinahan 所说：“由于德尔塔变异毒株，在我们对此有更多了解之前，我认为它会给我们带来不同的压力，我们会说，好吧，现在我们处于观望模式。很高兴看到就业岗位和经济都在增长--希望在下一份就业报告中，我们就能知道经济能否继续以这样的速度增长。现在看来会的。”</blockquote> Do others agree? Below we have excerpted some analyst and strategist reactions to today's report.<blockquote>其他人同意吗？下面我们摘录了一些分析师和策略师对今天报告的反应。</blockquote> Katherine Judge, CIBC Capital Markets:<blockquote>CIBC 资本市场 Katherine Judge：</blockquote> “With many states set to see the unemployment benefit top-ups expire in early September, healthy job gains should continue ahead, in line with elevated job openings. This print should be enough to allow the Fed to announce an early 2022 tapering of QE at the September meeting.” Chris Turner, head of foreign exchange strategy at ING Bank:<blockquote>“由于许多州的失业救济金补贴将于 9 月初到期，健康的就业增长应与职位空缺的增加保持一致。这一数字应足以让美联储在 9 月份的会议上宣布在 2022 年初缩减量化宽松政策。”荷兰国际集团银行外汇策略主管克里斯·特纳：</blockquote> The stronger-than-expected jobs report makes it more likely that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell may “drop heavy hints” at the Jackson Hole Symposium later this month, that the central bank may prepare to start tapering over subsequent months. The data is positive for the dollar versus the low-yielders such as the yen and euro. Still, the outlook for the greenback “should not necessarily damage the risk environment....Unless U.S. 10 year yields spike aggressively, high yield EM currencies should see demand on dips” Carl Riccadonna, Bloomberg Intelligence economist:<blockquote>强于预期的就业报告使得美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）更有可能在本月晚些时候的杰克逊霍尔研讨会上 “暗示”美联储可能准备在未来几个月开始缩减规模。该数据对美元兑日元和欧元等低收益货币有利。尽管如此，美元的前景“不一定会损害风险环境……除非美国 10 年期国债收益率大幅飙升，否则高收益新兴市场货币应该会在下跌时看到需求”。彭博情报经济学家卡尔·里卡多纳：</blockquote> The jobs report is “sturdy, but not as strong as it looks.” In addition to the modest fade in the pace of private-sector hiring (703,000 in July vs. 769,000 in June), much of the July gain occurred in the tenuous leisure and hospitality sector -- and that could easily reverse due to Covid-19, he said. This already appears to be evident in metrics such as OpenTable bookings. “So if we look at private-sector hiring outside of leisure and hospitality, today’s reported gain was 323,000, a bit slower than the prior month’s 375,000. This tells us that underlying economic momentum is steady-state, not accelerating.” Neil Dutta, economist at Renaissance Macro:<blockquote>就业报告 “稳健，但并不像看起来那么强劲”。他说，除了私营部门招聘速度略有放缓（7 月份为 703,000 人，6 月份为 769,000 人）之外，7 月份的大部分增长都发生在脆弱的休闲和酒店业，而且由于 Covid-19，这种情况很容易逆转。这在OpenTable预订等指标中似乎已经很明显了。“因此，如果我们看看休闲和酒店业以外的私营部门招聘情况，今天报告的增幅为 32.3 万人，略低于上月的 37.5 万人。这告诉我们，潜在的经济动能是稳定的，而不是加速的。”Neil Dutta，Renaissance Macro 经济学家:</blockquote> The FOMC could upgrade its language in the September statement to say that the economy is “on track for substantial further progress,” which would lead to a declaration of achievement of substantial further progress in “November at the earliest.”&nbsp; Tapering, in that event, could begin as early as December. JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade:<blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会可能会在 9 月份的声明中升级措辞，称经济 “有望取得实质性进一步进展”，这将导致 “最早在 11 月 ”宣布取得实质性进一步进展。在这种情况下，缩减规模最早可能在 12 月开始。德美利证券首席市场策略师 JJ Kinahan：</blockquote> “It’s a great number, there’s no way around that, it really is an impressive number. But I think if we didn’t have this new delta variant coming up, the conversation we’d be having is, is this inflationary, does this mean we’ll go into a taper, etc. But because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.” Roberto Perli, head of global policy research at Cornerstone Macro:<blockquote>“这是一个很棒的数字，这是无法回避的，这真的是一个令人印象深刻的数字。但我认为，如果我们没有新的德尔塔变异毒株，我们会讨论的话题是，这是否会导致通货膨胀，这是否意味着我们将进入缩减通货膨胀等等。但由于德尔塔变异毒株，在我们对此有更多了解之前，我认为它会给我们带来不同的压力，我们会说，好吧，现在我们处于观望模式。很高兴看到就业和经济都在发展--希望在下一份就业报告中，我们就能知道经济能否继续以这样的速度发展。现在看来会的。”Cornerstone Macro 全球政策研究主管 Roberto Perli：</blockquote> “The Fed will have one more employment report before the September meeting. Assuming it will be good as well, a plausible base case is for the FOMC to say at the September meeting that the labor market continued to make good progress, and if the progress continues at the recent pace the committee will be in a position to start tapering its asset purchases over the next few months.&nbsp; That would put the onset of tapering in late December or early January.“So bottom line I think the timeline remains the same.&nbsp; It would be hard to start tapering in September because it would go against both the ‘coming meetings’ (plural) language in the July statement and the notion that the FOMC would provide ample notice before actually starting tapering.” <blockquote>“美联储将在9月会议前再发布一份就业报告。假设情况也不错，那么一个合理的基本情况是，联邦公开市场委员会在 9 月份的会议上表示，劳动力市场继续取得良好进展，如果进展继续以最近的速度进行，委员会将能够在未来几个月内开始缩减资产购买规模。这将使缩减资产购买规模的开始时间在 12 月底或 1 月初。“因此，我认为时间表保持不变。9 月份开始缩减资产规模很难，因为这既违背了 7 月份声明中'即将召开会议'（复数）的措辞，也违背了联邦公开市场委员会在实际开始缩减资产规模之前会提供充分通知的理念。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/enough-tapering-start-wall-street-reacts-blockbuster-jobs-report\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/enough-tapering-start-wall-street-reacts-blockbuster-jobs-report","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1145298738","content_text":"With the jobs report coming in at just shy of 1 million jobs on the establishment survey (and just over 1 million on the Household survey), with strong job creation, a big drop in unemployment rate, higher employment-to-population, rising wages and hours worked, and favorable revisions, consensus - at least judging by the market reaction - is that we have entered the \"substantial progress\" phase, greenlighting a tapering signal by the Fed at the end of the month during the Jackson Hole symposium.\nAnd yet there is one potential hurdle: the Delta surge and ensuing restrictions and/or lockdowns: as TD Ameritrade's JJ Kinahan says, \"because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.”\nDo others agree? Below we have excerpted some analyst and strategist reactions to today's report.\nKatherine Judge, CIBC Capital Markets:\n\n“With many states set to see the unemployment benefit top-ups expire in early September, healthy job gains should continue ahead, in line with elevated job openings. This print should be enough to allow the Fed to announce an early 2022 tapering of QE at the September meeting.”\n\nChris Turner, head of foreign exchange strategy at ING Bank:\n\nThe stronger-than-expected jobs report makes it more likely that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell may “drop heavy hints” at the Jackson Hole Symposium later this month, that the central bank may prepare to start tapering over subsequent months. The data is positive for the dollar versus the low-yielders such as the yen and euro. Still, the outlook for the greenback “should not necessarily damage the risk environment....Unless U.S. 10 year yields spike aggressively, high yield EM currencies should see demand on dips”\n\nCarl Riccadonna, Bloomberg Intelligence economist:\n\nThe jobs report is “sturdy, but not as strong as it looks.” In addition to the modest fade in the pace of private-sector hiring (703,000 in July vs. 769,000 in June), much of the July gain occurred in the tenuous leisure and hospitality sector -- and that could easily reverse due to Covid-19, he said. This already appears to be evident in metrics such as OpenTable bookings. “So if we look at private-sector hiring outside of leisure and hospitality, today’s reported gain was 323,000, a bit slower than the prior month’s 375,000.\nThis tells us that underlying economic momentum is steady-state, not accelerating.”\n\nNeil Dutta, economist at Renaissance Macro:\n\nThe FOMC could upgrade its language in the September statement to say that the economy is “on track for substantial further progress,” which would lead to a declaration of achievement of substantial further progress in “November at the earliest.”  Tapering, in that event, could begin as early as December.\n\nJJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade:\n\n“It’s a great number, there’s no way around that, it really is an impressive number. But I think if we didn’t have this new delta variant coming up, the conversation we’d be having is, is this inflationary, does this mean we’ll go into a taper, etc. But because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.”\n\nRoberto Perli, head of global policy research at Cornerstone Macro:\n\n“The Fed will have one more employment report before the September meeting. Assuming it will be good as well, a plausible base case is for the FOMC to say at the September meeting that the labor market continued to make good progress, and if the progress continues at the recent pace the committee will be in a position to start tapering its asset purchases over the next few months.  That would put the onset of tapering in late December or early January.“So bottom line I think the timeline remains the same.  It would be hard to start tapering in September because it would go against both the ‘coming meetings’ (plural) language in the July statement and the notion that the FOMC would provide ample notice before actually starting tapering.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5458839,"gmtCreate":1628384255836,"gmtModify":1635157405865,"authorId":3576497026121990,"author":{"id":3576497026121990,"idStr":"3576497026121990","authorId":3576497026121990,"name":"woshihui","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16c7aa4a45306830522180ff7b026e56","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":891866694,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Ok","text":"Ok","html":"Ok"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":891145641,"gmtCreate":1628358318583,"gmtModify":1631892582328,"author":{"id":"4091101047149840","authorId":"4091101047149840","name":"Power1","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4a46b190be5bdc3ed9183051f9036c1","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"4091101047149840","idStr":"4091101047149840"},"htmlText":"Yes 2023","listText":"Yes 2023","text":"Yes 2023","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/891145641","repostId":1145298738,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1145298738","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628259150,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1145298738?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-06 22:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"\"Enough For Tapering To Start\": Wall Street Reacts To A Blockbuster Jobs Report<blockquote>“足以开始缩减规模”：华尔街对重磅就业报告的反应</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1145298738","media":"zerohedge","summary":"With the jobs report coming in at just shy of 1 million jobs on the establishment survey (and just o","content":"With the jobs report coming in at just shy of 1 million jobs on the establishment survey (and just over 1 million on the Household survey), with strong job creation, a big drop in unemployment rate, higher employment-to-population, rising wages and hours worked, and favorable revisions, consensus - at least judging by the market reaction - is that we have entered the \"substantial progress\" phase, greenlighting a tapering signal by the Fed at the end of the month during the Jackson Hole symposium.<blockquote>就业报告显示，企业调查中的就业岗位略低于 100 万个（家庭调查中的就业岗位略高于 100 万个），就业创造强劲，失业率大幅下降，就业人口比率上升，工资和工作时间上涨，以及有利的修正，至少从市场反应来看，共识是我们已经进入了“实质性进展”阶段，为美联储在本月底杰克逊霍尔研讨会期间发出的缩减规模信号开了绿灯。</blockquote> And yet there is one potential hurdle: the Delta surge and ensuing restrictions and/or lockdowns: as TD Ameritrade's JJ Kinahan says, \"because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.”<blockquote>然而，还有一个潜在的障碍：三角洲的激增以及随之而来的限制和/或封锁： 正如德美利证券（TD Ameritrade）的 JJ Kinahan 所说：“由于德尔塔变异毒株，在我们对此有更多了解之前，我认为它会给我们带来不同的压力，我们会说，好吧，现在我们处于观望模式。很高兴看到就业岗位和经济都在增长--希望在下一份就业报告中，我们就能知道经济能否继续以这样的速度增长。现在看来会的。”</blockquote> Do others agree? Below we have excerpted some analyst and strategist reactions to today's report.<blockquote>其他人同意吗？下面我们摘录了一些分析师和策略师对今天报告的反应。</blockquote> Katherine Judge, CIBC Capital Markets:<blockquote>CIBC 资本市场 Katherine Judge：</blockquote> “With many states set to see the unemployment benefit top-ups expire in early September, healthy job gains should continue ahead, in line with elevated job openings. This print should be enough to allow the Fed to announce an early 2022 tapering of QE at the September meeting.” Chris Turner, head of foreign exchange strategy at ING Bank:<blockquote>“由于许多州的失业救济金补贴将于 9 月初到期，健康的就业增长应与职位空缺的增加保持一致。这一数字应足以让美联储在 9 月份的会议上宣布在 2022 年初缩减量化宽松政策。”荷兰国际集团银行外汇策略主管克里斯·特纳：</blockquote> The stronger-than-expected jobs report makes it more likely that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell may “drop heavy hints” at the Jackson Hole Symposium later this month, that the central bank may prepare to start tapering over subsequent months. The data is positive for the dollar versus the low-yielders such as the yen and euro. Still, the outlook for the greenback “should not necessarily damage the risk environment....Unless U.S. 10 year yields spike aggressively, high yield EM currencies should see demand on dips” Carl Riccadonna, Bloomberg Intelligence economist:<blockquote>强于预期的就业报告使得美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）更有可能在本月晚些时候的杰克逊霍尔研讨会上 “暗示”美联储可能准备在未来几个月开始缩减规模。该数据对美元兑日元和欧元等低收益货币有利。尽管如此，美元的前景“不一定会损害风险环境……除非美国 10 年期国债收益率大幅飙升，否则高收益新兴市场货币应该会在下跌时看到需求”。彭博情报经济学家卡尔·里卡多纳：</blockquote> The jobs report is “sturdy, but not as strong as it looks.” In addition to the modest fade in the pace of private-sector hiring (703,000 in July vs. 769,000 in June), much of the July gain occurred in the tenuous leisure and hospitality sector -- and that could easily reverse due to Covid-19, he said. This already appears to be evident in metrics such as OpenTable bookings. “So if we look at private-sector hiring outside of leisure and hospitality, today’s reported gain was 323,000, a bit slower than the prior month’s 375,000. This tells us that underlying economic momentum is steady-state, not accelerating.” Neil Dutta, economist at Renaissance Macro:<blockquote>就业报告 “稳健，但并不像看起来那么强劲”。他说，除了私营部门招聘速度略有放缓（7 月份为 703,000 人，6 月份为 769,000 人）之外，7 月份的大部分增长都发生在脆弱的休闲和酒店业，而且由于 Covid-19，这种情况很容易逆转。这在OpenTable预订等指标中似乎已经很明显了。“因此，如果我们看看休闲和酒店业以外的私营部门招聘情况，今天报告的增幅为 32.3 万人，略低于上月的 37.5 万人。这告诉我们，潜在的经济动能是稳定的，而不是加速的。”Neil Dutta，Renaissance Macro 经济学家:</blockquote> The FOMC could upgrade its language in the September statement to say that the economy is “on track for substantial further progress,” which would lead to a declaration of achievement of substantial further progress in “November at the earliest.”&nbsp; Tapering, in that event, could begin as early as December. JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade:<blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会可能会在 9 月份的声明中升级措辞，称经济 “有望取得实质性进一步进展”，这将导致 “最早在 11 月 ”宣布取得实质性进一步进展。在这种情况下，缩减规模最早可能在 12 月开始。德美利证券首席市场策略师 JJ Kinahan：</blockquote> “It’s a great number, there’s no way around that, it really is an impressive number. But I think if we didn’t have this new delta variant coming up, the conversation we’d be having is, is this inflationary, does this mean we’ll go into a taper, etc. But because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.” Roberto Perli, head of global policy research at Cornerstone Macro:<blockquote>“这是一个很棒的数字，这是无法回避的，这真的是一个令人印象深刻的数字。但我认为，如果我们没有新的德尔塔变异毒株，我们会讨论的话题是，这是否会导致通货膨胀，这是否意味着我们将进入缩减通货膨胀等等。但由于德尔塔变异毒株，在我们对此有更多了解之前，我认为它会给我们带来不同的压力，我们会说，好吧，现在我们处于观望模式。很高兴看到就业和经济都在发展--希望在下一份就业报告中，我们就能知道经济能否继续以这样的速度发展。现在看来会的。”Cornerstone Macro 全球政策研究主管 Roberto Perli：</blockquote> “The Fed will have one more employment report before the September meeting. Assuming it will be good as well, a plausible base case is for the FOMC to say at the September meeting that the labor market continued to make good progress, and if the progress continues at the recent pace the committee will be in a position to start tapering its asset purchases over the next few months.&nbsp; That would put the onset of tapering in late December or early January.“So bottom line I think the timeline remains the same.&nbsp; It would be hard to start tapering in September because it would go against both the ‘coming meetings’ (plural) language in the July statement and the notion that the FOMC would provide ample notice before actually starting tapering.” <blockquote>“美联储将在9月会议前再发布一份就业报告。假设情况也不错，那么一个合理的基本情况是，联邦公开市场委员会在 9 月份的会议上表示，劳动力市场继续取得良好进展，如果进展继续以最近的速度进行，委员会将能够在未来几个月内开始缩减资产购买规模。这将使缩减资产购买规模的开始时间在 12 月底或 1 月初。“因此，我认为时间表保持不变。9 月份开始缩减资产规模很难，因为这既违背了 7 月份声明中'即将召开会议'（复数）的措辞，也违背了联邦公开市场委员会在实际开始缩减资产规模之前会提供充分通知的理念。”</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n\"Enough For Tapering To Start\": Wall Street Reacts To A Blockbuster Jobs Report<blockquote>“足以开始缩减规模”：华尔街对重磅就业报告的反应</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzerohedge2021-08-06 22:12\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nWith the jobs report coming in at just shy of 1 million jobs on the establishment survey (and just over 1 million on the Household survey), with strong job creation, a big drop in unemployment rate, higher employment-to-population, rising wages and hours worked, and favorable revisions, consensus - at least judging by the market reaction - is that we have entered the \"substantial progress\" phase, greenlighting a tapering signal by the Fed at the end of the month during the Jackson Hole symposium.<blockquote>就业报告显示，企业调查中的就业岗位略低于 100 万个（家庭调查中的就业岗位略高于 100 万个），就业创造强劲，失业率大幅下降，就业人口比率上升，工资和工作时间上涨，以及有利的修正，至少从市场反应来看，共识是我们已经进入了“实质性进展”阶段，为美联储在本月底杰克逊霍尔研讨会期间发出的缩减规模信号开了绿灯。</blockquote> And yet there is one potential hurdle: the Delta surge and ensuing restrictions and/or lockdowns: as TD Ameritrade's JJ Kinahan says, \"because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.”<blockquote>然而，还有一个潜在的障碍：三角洲的激增以及随之而来的限制和/或封锁： 正如德美利证券（TD Ameritrade）的 JJ Kinahan 所说：“由于德尔塔变异毒株，在我们对此有更多了解之前，我认为它会给我们带来不同的压力，我们会说，好吧，现在我们处于观望模式。很高兴看到就业岗位和经济都在增长--希望在下一份就业报告中，我们就能知道经济能否继续以这样的速度增长。现在看来会的。”</blockquote> Do others agree? Below we have excerpted some analyst and strategist reactions to today's report.<blockquote>其他人同意吗？下面我们摘录了一些分析师和策略师对今天报告的反应。</blockquote> Katherine Judge, CIBC Capital Markets:<blockquote>CIBC 资本市场 Katherine Judge：</blockquote> “With many states set to see the unemployment benefit top-ups expire in early September, healthy job gains should continue ahead, in line with elevated job openings. This print should be enough to allow the Fed to announce an early 2022 tapering of QE at the September meeting.” Chris Turner, head of foreign exchange strategy at ING Bank:<blockquote>“由于许多州的失业救济金补贴将于 9 月初到期，健康的就业增长应与职位空缺的增加保持一致。这一数字应足以让美联储在 9 月份的会议上宣布在 2022 年初缩减量化宽松政策。”荷兰国际集团银行外汇策略主管克里斯·特纳：</blockquote> The stronger-than-expected jobs report makes it more likely that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell may “drop heavy hints” at the Jackson Hole Symposium later this month, that the central bank may prepare to start tapering over subsequent months. The data is positive for the dollar versus the low-yielders such as the yen and euro. Still, the outlook for the greenback “should not necessarily damage the risk environment....Unless U.S. 10 year yields spike aggressively, high yield EM currencies should see demand on dips” Carl Riccadonna, Bloomberg Intelligence economist:<blockquote>强于预期的就业报告使得美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）更有可能在本月晚些时候的杰克逊霍尔研讨会上 “暗示”美联储可能准备在未来几个月开始缩减规模。该数据对美元兑日元和欧元等低收益货币有利。尽管如此，美元的前景“不一定会损害风险环境……除非美国 10 年期国债收益率大幅飙升，否则高收益新兴市场货币应该会在下跌时看到需求”。彭博情报经济学家卡尔·里卡多纳：</blockquote> The jobs report is “sturdy, but not as strong as it looks.” In addition to the modest fade in the pace of private-sector hiring (703,000 in July vs. 769,000 in June), much of the July gain occurred in the tenuous leisure and hospitality sector -- and that could easily reverse due to Covid-19, he said. This already appears to be evident in metrics such as OpenTable bookings. “So if we look at private-sector hiring outside of leisure and hospitality, today’s reported gain was 323,000, a bit slower than the prior month’s 375,000. This tells us that underlying economic momentum is steady-state, not accelerating.” Neil Dutta, economist at Renaissance Macro:<blockquote>就业报告 “稳健，但并不像看起来那么强劲”。他说，除了私营部门招聘速度略有放缓（7 月份为 703,000 人，6 月份为 769,000 人）之外，7 月份的大部分增长都发生在脆弱的休闲和酒店业，而且由于 Covid-19，这种情况很容易逆转。这在OpenTable预订等指标中似乎已经很明显了。“因此，如果我们看看休闲和酒店业以外的私营部门招聘情况，今天报告的增幅为 32.3 万人，略低于上月的 37.5 万人。这告诉我们，潜在的经济动能是稳定的，而不是加速的。”Neil Dutta，Renaissance Macro 经济学家:</blockquote> The FOMC could upgrade its language in the September statement to say that the economy is “on track for substantial further progress,” which would lead to a declaration of achievement of substantial further progress in “November at the earliest.”&nbsp; Tapering, in that event, could begin as early as December. JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade:<blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会可能会在 9 月份的声明中升级措辞，称经济 “有望取得实质性进一步进展”，这将导致 “最早在 11 月 ”宣布取得实质性进一步进展。在这种情况下，缩减规模最早可能在 12 月开始。德美利证券首席市场策略师 JJ Kinahan：</blockquote> “It’s a great number, there’s no way around that, it really is an impressive number. But I think if we didn’t have this new delta variant coming up, the conversation we’d be having is, is this inflationary, does this mean we’ll go into a taper, etc. But because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.” Roberto Perli, head of global policy research at Cornerstone Macro:<blockquote>“这是一个很棒的数字，这是无法回避的，这真的是一个令人印象深刻的数字。但我认为，如果我们没有新的德尔塔变异毒株，我们会讨论的话题是，这是否会导致通货膨胀，这是否意味着我们将进入缩减通货膨胀等等。但由于德尔塔变异毒株，在我们对此有更多了解之前，我认为它会给我们带来不同的压力，我们会说，好吧，现在我们处于观望模式。很高兴看到就业和经济都在发展--希望在下一份就业报告中，我们就能知道经济能否继续以这样的速度发展。现在看来会的。”Cornerstone Macro 全球政策研究主管 Roberto Perli：</blockquote> “The Fed will have one more employment report before the September meeting. Assuming it will be good as well, a plausible base case is for the FOMC to say at the September meeting that the labor market continued to make good progress, and if the progress continues at the recent pace the committee will be in a position to start tapering its asset purchases over the next few months.&nbsp; That would put the onset of tapering in late December or early January.“So bottom line I think the timeline remains the same.&nbsp; It would be hard to start tapering in September because it would go against both the ‘coming meetings’ (plural) language in the July statement and the notion that the FOMC would provide ample notice before actually starting tapering.” <blockquote>“美联储将在9月会议前再发布一份就业报告。假设情况也不错，那么一个合理的基本情况是，联邦公开市场委员会在 9 月份的会议上表示，劳动力市场继续取得良好进展，如果进展继续以最近的速度进行，委员会将能够在未来几个月内开始缩减资产购买规模。这将使缩减资产购买规模的开始时间在 12 月底或 1 月初。“因此，我认为时间表保持不变。9 月份开始缩减资产规模很难，因为这既违背了 7 月份声明中'即将召开会议'（复数）的措辞，也违背了联邦公开市场委员会在实际开始缩减资产规模之前会提供充分通知的理念。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/enough-tapering-start-wall-street-reacts-blockbuster-jobs-report\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/enough-tapering-start-wall-street-reacts-blockbuster-jobs-report","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1145298738","content_text":"With the jobs report coming in at just shy of 1 million jobs on the establishment survey (and just over 1 million on the Household survey), with strong job creation, a big drop in unemployment rate, higher employment-to-population, rising wages and hours worked, and favorable revisions, consensus - at least judging by the market reaction - is that we have entered the \"substantial progress\" phase, greenlighting a tapering signal by the Fed at the end of the month during the Jackson Hole symposium.\nAnd yet there is one potential hurdle: the Delta surge and ensuing restrictions and/or lockdowns: as TD Ameritrade's JJ Kinahan says, \"because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.”\nDo others agree? Below we have excerpted some analyst and strategist reactions to today's report.\nKatherine Judge, CIBC Capital Markets:\n\n“With many states set to see the unemployment benefit top-ups expire in early September, healthy job gains should continue ahead, in line with elevated job openings. This print should be enough to allow the Fed to announce an early 2022 tapering of QE at the September meeting.”\n\nChris Turner, head of foreign exchange strategy at ING Bank:\n\nThe stronger-than-expected jobs report makes it more likely that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell may “drop heavy hints” at the Jackson Hole Symposium later this month, that the central bank may prepare to start tapering over subsequent months. The data is positive for the dollar versus the low-yielders such as the yen and euro. Still, the outlook for the greenback “should not necessarily damage the risk environment....Unless U.S. 10 year yields spike aggressively, high yield EM currencies should see demand on dips”\n\nCarl Riccadonna, Bloomberg Intelligence economist:\n\nThe jobs report is “sturdy, but not as strong as it looks.” In addition to the modest fade in the pace of private-sector hiring (703,000 in July vs. 769,000 in June), much of the July gain occurred in the tenuous leisure and hospitality sector -- and that could easily reverse due to Covid-19, he said. This already appears to be evident in metrics such as OpenTable bookings. “So if we look at private-sector hiring outside of leisure and hospitality, today’s reported gain was 323,000, a bit slower than the prior month’s 375,000.\nThis tells us that underlying economic momentum is steady-state, not accelerating.”\n\nNeil Dutta, economist at Renaissance Macro:\n\nThe FOMC could upgrade its language in the September statement to say that the economy is “on track for substantial further progress,” which would lead to a declaration of achievement of substantial further progress in “November at the earliest.”  Tapering, in that event, could begin as early as December.\n\nJJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade:\n\n“It’s a great number, there’s no way around that, it really is an impressive number. But I think if we didn’t have this new delta variant coming up, the conversation we’d be having is, is this inflationary, does this mean we’ll go into a taper, etc. But because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.”\n\nRoberto Perli, head of global policy research at Cornerstone Macro:\n\n“The Fed will have one more employment report before the September meeting. Assuming it will be good as well, a plausible base case is for the FOMC to say at the September meeting that the labor market continued to make good progress, and if the progress continues at the recent pace the committee will be in a position to start tapering its asset purchases over the next few months.  That would put the onset of tapering in late December or early January.“So bottom line I think the timeline remains the same.  It would be hard to start tapering in September because it would go against both the ‘coming meetings’ (plural) language in the July statement and the notion that the FOMC would provide ample notice before actually starting tapering.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":891118138,"gmtCreate":1628347799724,"gmtModify":1631889029695,"author":{"id":"3575090896400299","authorId":"3575090896400299","name":"Workaholyk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9032f0c616eb371f7056ee3aae5ad7be","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3575090896400299","idStr":"3575090896400299"},"htmlText":"2023 right?!&nbsp;","listText":"2023 right?!&nbsp;","text":"2023 right?!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/891118138","repostId":1145298738,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1145298738","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628259150,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1145298738?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-06 22:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"\"Enough For Tapering To Start\": Wall Street Reacts To A Blockbuster Jobs Report<blockquote>“足以开始缩减规模”：华尔街对重磅就业报告的反应</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1145298738","media":"zerohedge","summary":"With the jobs report coming in at just shy of 1 million jobs on the establishment survey (and just o","content":"With the jobs report coming in at just shy of 1 million jobs on the establishment survey (and just over 1 million on the Household survey), with strong job creation, a big drop in unemployment rate, higher employment-to-population, rising wages and hours worked, and favorable revisions, consensus - at least judging by the market reaction - is that we have entered the \"substantial progress\" phase, greenlighting a tapering signal by the Fed at the end of the month during the Jackson Hole symposium.<blockquote>就业报告显示，企业调查中的就业岗位略低于 100 万个（家庭调查中的就业岗位略高于 100 万个），就业创造强劲，失业率大幅下降，就业人口比率上升，工资和工作时间上涨，以及有利的修正，至少从市场反应来看，共识是我们已经进入了“实质性进展”阶段，为美联储在本月底杰克逊霍尔研讨会期间发出的缩减规模信号开了绿灯。</blockquote> And yet there is one potential hurdle: the Delta surge and ensuing restrictions and/or lockdowns: as TD Ameritrade's JJ Kinahan says, \"because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.”<blockquote>然而，还有一个潜在的障碍：三角洲的激增以及随之而来的限制和/或封锁： 正如德美利证券（TD Ameritrade）的 JJ Kinahan 所说：“由于德尔塔变异毒株，在我们对此有更多了解之前，我认为它会给我们带来不同的压力，我们会说，好吧，现在我们处于观望模式。很高兴看到就业岗位和经济都在增长--希望在下一份就业报告中，我们就能知道经济能否继续以这样的速度增长。现在看来会的。”</blockquote> Do others agree? Below we have excerpted some analyst and strategist reactions to today's report.<blockquote>其他人同意吗？下面我们摘录了一些分析师和策略师对今天报告的反应。</blockquote> Katherine Judge, CIBC Capital Markets:<blockquote>CIBC 资本市场 Katherine Judge：</blockquote> “With many states set to see the unemployment benefit top-ups expire in early September, healthy job gains should continue ahead, in line with elevated job openings. This print should be enough to allow the Fed to announce an early 2022 tapering of QE at the September meeting.” Chris Turner, head of foreign exchange strategy at ING Bank:<blockquote>“由于许多州的失业救济金补贴将于 9 月初到期，健康的就业增长应与职位空缺的增加保持一致。这一数字应足以让美联储在 9 月份的会议上宣布在 2022 年初缩减量化宽松政策。”荷兰国际集团银行外汇策略主管克里斯·特纳：</blockquote> The stronger-than-expected jobs report makes it more likely that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell may “drop heavy hints” at the Jackson Hole Symposium later this month, that the central bank may prepare to start tapering over subsequent months. The data is positive for the dollar versus the low-yielders such as the yen and euro. Still, the outlook for the greenback “should not necessarily damage the risk environment....Unless U.S. 10 year yields spike aggressively, high yield EM currencies should see demand on dips” Carl Riccadonna, Bloomberg Intelligence economist:<blockquote>强于预期的就业报告使得美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）更有可能在本月晚些时候的杰克逊霍尔研讨会上 “暗示”美联储可能准备在未来几个月开始缩减规模。该数据对美元兑日元和欧元等低收益货币有利。尽管如此，美元的前景“不一定会损害风险环境……除非美国 10 年期国债收益率大幅飙升，否则高收益新兴市场货币应该会在下跌时看到需求”。彭博情报经济学家卡尔·里卡多纳：</blockquote> The jobs report is “sturdy, but not as strong as it looks.” In addition to the modest fade in the pace of private-sector hiring (703,000 in July vs. 769,000 in June), much of the July gain occurred in the tenuous leisure and hospitality sector -- and that could easily reverse due to Covid-19, he said. This already appears to be evident in metrics such as OpenTable bookings. “So if we look at private-sector hiring outside of leisure and hospitality, today’s reported gain was 323,000, a bit slower than the prior month’s 375,000. This tells us that underlying economic momentum is steady-state, not accelerating.” Neil Dutta, economist at Renaissance Macro:<blockquote>就业报告 “稳健，但并不像看起来那么强劲”。他说，除了私营部门招聘速度略有放缓（7 月份为 703,000 人，6 月份为 769,000 人）之外，7 月份的大部分增长都发生在脆弱的休闲和酒店业，而且由于 Covid-19，这种情况很容易逆转。这在OpenTable预订等指标中似乎已经很明显了。“因此，如果我们看看休闲和酒店业以外的私营部门招聘情况，今天报告的增幅为 32.3 万人，略低于上月的 37.5 万人。这告诉我们，潜在的经济动能是稳定的，而不是加速的。”Neil Dutta，Renaissance Macro 经济学家:</blockquote> The FOMC could upgrade its language in the September statement to say that the economy is “on track for substantial further progress,” which would lead to a declaration of achievement of substantial further progress in “November at the earliest.”&nbsp; Tapering, in that event, could begin as early as December. JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade:<blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会可能会在 9 月份的声明中升级措辞，称经济 “有望取得实质性进一步进展”，这将导致 “最早在 11 月 ”宣布取得实质性进一步进展。在这种情况下，缩减规模最早可能在 12 月开始。德美利证券首席市场策略师 JJ Kinahan：</blockquote> “It’s a great number, there’s no way around that, it really is an impressive number. But I think if we didn’t have this new delta variant coming up, the conversation we’d be having is, is this inflationary, does this mean we’ll go into a taper, etc. But because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.” Roberto Perli, head of global policy research at Cornerstone Macro:<blockquote>“这是一个很棒的数字，这是无法回避的，这真的是一个令人印象深刻的数字。但我认为，如果我们没有新的德尔塔变异毒株，我们会讨论的话题是，这是否会导致通货膨胀，这是否意味着我们将进入缩减通货膨胀等等。但由于德尔塔变异毒株，在我们对此有更多了解之前，我认为它会给我们带来不同的压力，我们会说，好吧，现在我们处于观望模式。很高兴看到就业和经济都在发展--希望在下一份就业报告中，我们就能知道经济能否继续以这样的速度发展。现在看来会的。”Cornerstone Macro 全球政策研究主管 Roberto Perli：</blockquote> “The Fed will have one more employment report before the September meeting. Assuming it will be good as well, a plausible base case is for the FOMC to say at the September meeting that the labor market continued to make good progress, and if the progress continues at the recent pace the committee will be in a position to start tapering its asset purchases over the next few months.&nbsp; That would put the onset of tapering in late December or early January.“So bottom line I think the timeline remains the same.&nbsp; It would be hard to start tapering in September because it would go against both the ‘coming meetings’ (plural) language in the July statement and the notion that the FOMC would provide ample notice before actually starting tapering.” <blockquote>“美联储将在9月会议前再发布一份就业报告。假设情况也不错，那么一个合理的基本情况是，联邦公开市场委员会在 9 月份的会议上表示，劳动力市场继续取得良好进展，如果进展继续以最近的速度进行，委员会将能够在未来几个月内开始缩减资产购买规模。这将使缩减资产购买规模的开始时间在 12 月底或 1 月初。“因此，我认为时间表保持不变。9 月份开始缩减资产规模很难，因为这既违背了 7 月份声明中'即将召开会议'（复数）的措辞，也违背了联邦公开市场委员会在实际开始缩减资产规模之前会提供充分通知的理念。”</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.”<blockquote>然而，还有一个潜在的障碍：三角洲的激增以及随之而来的限制和/或封锁： 正如德美利证券（TD Ameritrade）的 JJ Kinahan 所说：“由于德尔塔变异毒株，在我们对此有更多了解之前，我认为它会给我们带来不同的压力，我们会说，好吧，现在我们处于观望模式。很高兴看到就业岗位和经济都在增长--希望在下一份就业报告中，我们就能知道经济能否继续以这样的速度增长。现在看来会的。”</blockquote> Do others agree? Below we have excerpted some analyst and strategist reactions to today's report.<blockquote>其他人同意吗？下面我们摘录了一些分析师和策略师对今天报告的反应。</blockquote> Katherine Judge, CIBC Capital Markets:<blockquote>CIBC 资本市场 Katherine Judge：</blockquote> “With many states set to see the unemployment benefit top-ups expire in early September, healthy job gains should continue ahead, in line with elevated job openings. This print should be enough to allow the Fed to announce an early 2022 tapering of QE at the September meeting.” Chris Turner, head of foreign exchange strategy at ING Bank:<blockquote>“由于许多州的失业救济金补贴将于 9 月初到期，健康的就业增长应与职位空缺的增加保持一致。这一数字应足以让美联储在 9 月份的会议上宣布在 2022 年初缩减量化宽松政策。”荷兰国际集团银行外汇策略主管克里斯·特纳：</blockquote> The stronger-than-expected jobs report makes it more likely that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell may “drop heavy hints” at the Jackson Hole Symposium later this month, that the central bank may prepare to start tapering over subsequent months. The data is positive for the dollar versus the low-yielders such as the yen and euro. Still, the outlook for the greenback “should not necessarily damage the risk environment....Unless U.S. 10 year yields spike aggressively, high yield EM currencies should see demand on dips” Carl Riccadonna, Bloomberg Intelligence economist:<blockquote>强于预期的就业报告使得美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）更有可能在本月晚些时候的杰克逊霍尔研讨会上 “暗示”美联储可能准备在未来几个月开始缩减规模。该数据对美元兑日元和欧元等低收益货币有利。尽管如此，美元的前景“不一定会损害风险环境……除非美国 10 年期国债收益率大幅飙升，否则高收益新兴市场货币应该会在下跌时看到需求”。彭博情报经济学家卡尔·里卡多纳：</blockquote> The jobs report is “sturdy, but not as strong as it looks.” In addition to the modest fade in the pace of private-sector hiring (703,000 in July vs. 769,000 in June), much of the July gain occurred in the tenuous leisure and hospitality sector -- and that could easily reverse due to Covid-19, he said. This already appears to be evident in metrics such as OpenTable bookings. “So if we look at private-sector hiring outside of leisure and hospitality, today’s reported gain was 323,000, a bit slower than the prior month’s 375,000. This tells us that underlying economic momentum is steady-state, not accelerating.” Neil Dutta, economist at Renaissance Macro:<blockquote>就业报告 “稳健，但并不像看起来那么强劲”。他说，除了私营部门招聘速度略有放缓（7 月份为 703,000 人，6 月份为 769,000 人）之外，7 月份的大部分增长都发生在脆弱的休闲和酒店业，而且由于 Covid-19，这种情况很容易逆转。这在OpenTable预订等指标中似乎已经很明显了。“因此，如果我们看看休闲和酒店业以外的私营部门招聘情况，今天报告的增幅为 32.3 万人，略低于上月的 37.5 万人。这告诉我们，潜在的经济动能是稳定的，而不是加速的。”Neil Dutta，Renaissance Macro 经济学家:</blockquote> The FOMC could upgrade its language in the September statement to say that the economy is “on track for substantial further progress,” which would lead to a declaration of achievement of substantial further progress in “November at the earliest.”&nbsp; Tapering, in that event, could begin as early as December. JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade:<blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会可能会在 9 月份的声明中升级措辞，称经济 “有望取得实质性进一步进展”，这将导致 “最早在 11 月 ”宣布取得实质性进一步进展。在这种情况下，缩减规模最早可能在 12 月开始。德美利证券首席市场策略师 JJ Kinahan：</blockquote> “It’s a great number, there’s no way around that, it really is an impressive number. But I think if we didn’t have this new delta variant coming up, the conversation we’d be having is, is this inflationary, does this mean we’ll go into a taper, etc. But because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.” Roberto Perli, head of global policy research at Cornerstone Macro:<blockquote>“这是一个很棒的数字，这是无法回避的，这真的是一个令人印象深刻的数字。但我认为，如果我们没有新的德尔塔变异毒株，我们会讨论的话题是，这是否会导致通货膨胀，这是否意味着我们将进入缩减通货膨胀等等。但由于德尔塔变异毒株，在我们对此有更多了解之前，我认为它会给我们带来不同的压力，我们会说，好吧，现在我们处于观望模式。很高兴看到就业和经济都在发展--希望在下一份就业报告中，我们就能知道经济能否继续以这样的速度发展。现在看来会的。”Cornerstone Macro 全球政策研究主管 Roberto Perli：</blockquote> “The Fed will have one more employment report before the September meeting. Assuming it will be good as well, a plausible base case is for the FOMC to say at the September meeting that the labor market continued to make good progress, and if the progress continues at the recent pace the committee will be in a position to start tapering its asset purchases over the next few months.&nbsp; That would put the onset of tapering in late December or early January.“So bottom line I think the timeline remains the same.&nbsp; It would be hard to start tapering in September because it would go against both the ‘coming meetings’ (plural) language in the July statement and the notion that the FOMC would provide ample notice before actually starting tapering.” <blockquote>“美联储将在9月会议前再发布一份就业报告。假设情况也不错，那么一个合理的基本情况是，联邦公开市场委员会在 9 月份的会议上表示，劳动力市场继续取得良好进展，如果进展继续以最近的速度进行，委员会将能够在未来几个月内开始缩减资产购买规模。这将使缩减资产购买规模的开始时间在 12 月底或 1 月初。“因此，我认为时间表保持不变。9 月份开始缩减资产规模很难，因为这既违背了 7 月份声明中'即将召开会议'（复数）的措辞，也违背了联邦公开市场委员会在实际开始缩减资产规模之前会提供充分通知的理念。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/enough-tapering-start-wall-street-reacts-blockbuster-jobs-report\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/enough-tapering-start-wall-street-reacts-blockbuster-jobs-report","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1145298738","content_text":"With the jobs report coming in at just shy of 1 million jobs on the establishment survey (and just over 1 million on the Household survey), with strong job creation, a big drop in unemployment rate, higher employment-to-population, rising wages and hours worked, and favorable revisions, consensus - at least judging by the market reaction - is that we have entered the \"substantial progress\" phase, greenlighting a tapering signal by the Fed at the end of the month during the Jackson Hole symposium.\nAnd yet there is one potential hurdle: the Delta surge and ensuing restrictions and/or lockdowns: as TD Ameritrade's JJ Kinahan says, \"because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.”\nDo others agree? Below we have excerpted some analyst and strategist reactions to today's report.\nKatherine Judge, CIBC Capital Markets:\n\n“With many states set to see the unemployment benefit top-ups expire in early September, healthy job gains should continue ahead, in line with elevated job openings. This print should be enough to allow the Fed to announce an early 2022 tapering of QE at the September meeting.”\n\nChris Turner, head of foreign exchange strategy at ING Bank:\n\nThe stronger-than-expected jobs report makes it more likely that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell may “drop heavy hints” at the Jackson Hole Symposium later this month, that the central bank may prepare to start tapering over subsequent months. The data is positive for the dollar versus the low-yielders such as the yen and euro. Still, the outlook for the greenback “should not necessarily damage the risk environment....Unless U.S. 10 year yields spike aggressively, high yield EM currencies should see demand on dips”\n\nCarl Riccadonna, Bloomberg Intelligence economist:\n\nThe jobs report is “sturdy, but not as strong as it looks.” In addition to the modest fade in the pace of private-sector hiring (703,000 in July vs. 769,000 in June), much of the July gain occurred in the tenuous leisure and hospitality sector -- and that could easily reverse due to Covid-19, he said. This already appears to be evident in metrics such as OpenTable bookings. “So if we look at private-sector hiring outside of leisure and hospitality, today’s reported gain was 323,000, a bit slower than the prior month’s 375,000.\nThis tells us that underlying economic momentum is steady-state, not accelerating.”\n\nNeil Dutta, economist at Renaissance Macro:\n\nThe FOMC could upgrade its language in the September statement to say that the economy is “on track for substantial further progress,” which would lead to a declaration of achievement of substantial further progress in “November at the earliest.”  Tapering, in that event, could begin as early as December.\n\nJJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade:\n\n“It’s a great number, there’s no way around that, it really is an impressive number. But I think if we didn’t have this new delta variant coming up, the conversation we’d be having is, is this inflationary, does this mean we’ll go into a taper, etc. But because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.”\n\nRoberto Perli, head of global policy research at Cornerstone Macro:\n\n“The Fed will have one more employment report before the September meeting. Assuming it will be good as well, a plausible base case is for the FOMC to say at the September meeting that the labor market continued to make good progress, and if the progress continues at the recent pace the committee will be in a position to start tapering its asset purchases over the next few months.  That would put the onset of tapering in late December or early January.“So bottom line I think the timeline remains the same.  It would be hard to start tapering in September because it would go against both the ‘coming meetings’ (plural) language in the July statement and the notion that the FOMC would provide ample notice before actually starting tapering.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5461103,"gmtCreate":1628398641352,"gmtModify":1631889029702,"authorId":3576119840362689,"author":{"id":3576119840362689,"idStr":"3576119840362689","authorId":3576119840362689,"name":"TraderNeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85e1a1e44089d2f20240d3e7bc6fc0c7","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":891118138,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"we just have to wait to hear more info from the Fed in the coming Jackson Hole and FOMC","text":"we just have to wait to hear more info from the Fed in the coming Jackson Hole and FOMC","html":"we just have to wait to hear more info from the Fed in the coming Jackson Hole and FOMC"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":891367635,"gmtCreate":1628337061627,"gmtModify":1631893408885,"author":{"id":"3571448024288156","authorId":"3571448024288156","name":"Sing2me","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f485854808e05893440cba75ca2a8b6a","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3571448024288156","idStr":"3571448024288156"},"htmlText":"Like n comment","listText":"Like n comment","text":"Like n comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/891367635","repostId":1145298738,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1145298738","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628259150,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1145298738?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-06 22:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"\"Enough For Tapering To Start\": Wall Street Reacts To A Blockbuster Jobs Report<blockquote>“足以开始缩减规模”：华尔街对重磅就业报告的反应</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1145298738","media":"zerohedge","summary":"With the jobs report coming in at just shy of 1 million jobs on the establishment survey (and just o","content":"With the jobs report coming in at just shy of 1 million jobs on the establishment survey (and just over 1 million on the Household survey), with strong job creation, a big drop in unemployment rate, higher employment-to-population, rising wages and hours worked, and favorable revisions, consensus - at least judging by the market reaction - is that we have entered the \"substantial progress\" phase, greenlighting a tapering signal by the Fed at the end of the month during the Jackson Hole symposium.<blockquote>就业报告显示，企业调查中的就业岗位略低于 100 万个（家庭调查中的就业岗位略高于 100 万个），就业创造强劲，失业率大幅下降，就业人口比率上升，工资和工作时间上涨，以及有利的修正，至少从市场反应来看，共识是我们已经进入了“实质性进展”阶段，为美联储在本月底杰克逊霍尔研讨会期间发出的缩减规模信号开了绿灯。</blockquote> And yet there is one potential hurdle: the Delta surge and ensuing restrictions and/or lockdowns: as TD Ameritrade's JJ Kinahan says, \"because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.”<blockquote>然而，还有一个潜在的障碍：三角洲的激增以及随之而来的限制和/或封锁： 正如德美利证券（TD Ameritrade）的 JJ Kinahan 所说：“由于德尔塔变异毒株，在我们对此有更多了解之前，我认为它会给我们带来不同的压力，我们会说，好吧，现在我们处于观望模式。很高兴看到就业岗位和经济都在增长--希望在下一份就业报告中，我们就能知道经济能否继续以这样的速度增长。现在看来会的。”</blockquote> Do others agree? Below we have excerpted some analyst and strategist reactions to today's report.<blockquote>其他人同意吗？下面我们摘录了一些分析师和策略师对今天报告的反应。</blockquote> Katherine Judge, CIBC Capital Markets:<blockquote>CIBC 资本市场 Katherine Judge：</blockquote> “With many states set to see the unemployment benefit top-ups expire in early September, healthy job gains should continue ahead, in line with elevated job openings. This print should be enough to allow the Fed to announce an early 2022 tapering of QE at the September meeting.” Chris Turner, head of foreign exchange strategy at ING Bank:<blockquote>“由于许多州的失业救济金补贴将于 9 月初到期，健康的就业增长应与职位空缺的增加保持一致。这一数字应足以让美联储在 9 月份的会议上宣布在 2022 年初缩减量化宽松政策。”荷兰国际集团银行外汇策略主管克里斯·特纳：</blockquote> The stronger-than-expected jobs report makes it more likely that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell may “drop heavy hints” at the Jackson Hole Symposium later this month, that the central bank may prepare to start tapering over subsequent months. The data is positive for the dollar versus the low-yielders such as the yen and euro. Still, the outlook for the greenback “should not necessarily damage the risk environment....Unless U.S. 10 year yields spike aggressively, high yield EM currencies should see demand on dips” Carl Riccadonna, Bloomberg Intelligence economist:<blockquote>强于预期的就业报告使得美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）更有可能在本月晚些时候的杰克逊霍尔研讨会上 “暗示”美联储可能准备在未来几个月开始缩减规模。该数据对美元兑日元和欧元等低收益货币有利。尽管如此，美元的前景“不一定会损害风险环境……除非美国 10 年期国债收益率大幅飙升，否则高收益新兴市场货币应该会在下跌时看到需求”。彭博情报经济学家卡尔·里卡多纳：</blockquote> The jobs report is “sturdy, but not as strong as it looks.” In addition to the modest fade in the pace of private-sector hiring (703,000 in July vs. 769,000 in June), much of the July gain occurred in the tenuous leisure and hospitality sector -- and that could easily reverse due to Covid-19, he said. This already appears to be evident in metrics such as OpenTable bookings. “So if we look at private-sector hiring outside of leisure and hospitality, today’s reported gain was 323,000, a bit slower than the prior month’s 375,000. This tells us that underlying economic momentum is steady-state, not accelerating.” Neil Dutta, economist at Renaissance Macro:<blockquote>就业报告 “稳健，但并不像看起来那么强劲”。他说，除了私营部门招聘速度略有放缓（7 月份为 703,000 人，6 月份为 769,000 人）之外，7 月份的大部分增长都发生在脆弱的休闲和酒店业，而且由于 Covid-19，这种情况很容易逆转。这在OpenTable预订等指标中似乎已经很明显了。“因此，如果我们看看休闲和酒店业以外的私营部门招聘情况，今天报告的增幅为 32.3 万人，略低于上月的 37.5 万人。这告诉我们，潜在的经济动能是稳定的，而不是加速的。”Neil Dutta，Renaissance Macro 经济学家:</blockquote> The FOMC could upgrade its language in the September statement to say that the economy is “on track for substantial further progress,” which would lead to a declaration of achievement of substantial further progress in “November at the earliest.”&nbsp; Tapering, in that event, could begin as early as December. JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade:<blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会可能会在 9 月份的声明中升级措辞，称经济 “有望取得实质性进一步进展”，这将导致 “最早在 11 月 ”宣布取得实质性进一步进展。在这种情况下，缩减规模最早可能在 12 月开始。德美利证券首席市场策略师 JJ Kinahan：</blockquote> “It’s a great number, there’s no way around that, it really is an impressive number. But I think if we didn’t have this new delta variant coming up, the conversation we’d be having is, is this inflationary, does this mean we’ll go into a taper, etc. But because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.” Roberto Perli, head of global policy research at Cornerstone Macro:<blockquote>“这是一个很棒的数字，这是无法回避的，这真的是一个令人印象深刻的数字。但我认为，如果我们没有新的德尔塔变异毒株，我们会讨论的话题是，这是否会导致通货膨胀，这是否意味着我们将进入缩减通货膨胀等等。但由于德尔塔变异毒株，在我们对此有更多了解之前，我认为它会给我们带来不同的压力，我们会说，好吧，现在我们处于观望模式。很高兴看到就业和经济都在发展--希望在下一份就业报告中，我们就能知道经济能否继续以这样的速度发展。现在看来会的。”Cornerstone Macro 全球政策研究主管 Roberto Perli：</blockquote> “The Fed will have one more employment report before the September meeting. Assuming it will be good as well, a plausible base case is for the FOMC to say at the September meeting that the labor market continued to make good progress, and if the progress continues at the recent pace the committee will be in a position to start tapering its asset purchases over the next few months.&nbsp; That would put the onset of tapering in late December or early January.“So bottom line I think the timeline remains the same.&nbsp; It would be hard to start tapering in September because it would go against both the ‘coming meetings’ (plural) language in the July statement and the notion that the FOMC would provide ample notice before actually starting tapering.” <blockquote>“美联储将在9月会议前再发布一份就业报告。假设情况也不错，那么一个合理的基本情况是，联邦公开市场委员会在 9 月份的会议上表示，劳动力市场继续取得良好进展，如果进展继续以最近的速度进行，委员会将能够在未来几个月内开始缩减资产购买规模。这将使缩减资产购买规模的开始时间在 12 月底或 1 月初。“因此，我认为时间表保持不变。9 月份开始缩减资产规模很难，因为这既违背了 7 月份声明中'即将召开会议'（复数）的措辞，也违背了联邦公开市场委员会在实际开始缩减资产规模之前会提供充分通知的理念。”</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n\"Enough For Tapering To Start\": Wall Street Reacts To A Blockbuster Jobs Report<blockquote>“足以开始缩减规模”：华尔街对重磅就业报告的反应</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzerohedge2021-08-06 22:12\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nWith the jobs report coming in at just shy of 1 million jobs on the establishment survey (and just over 1 million on the Household survey), with strong job creation, a big drop in unemployment rate, higher employment-to-population, rising wages and hours worked, and favorable revisions, consensus - at least judging by the market reaction - is that we have entered the \"substantial progress\" phase, greenlighting a tapering signal by the Fed at the end of the month during the Jackson Hole symposium.<blockquote>就业报告显示，企业调查中的就业岗位略低于 100 万个（家庭调查中的就业岗位略高于 100 万个），就业创造强劲，失业率大幅下降，就业人口比率上升，工资和工作时间上涨，以及有利的修正，至少从市场反应来看，共识是我们已经进入了“实质性进展”阶段，为美联储在本月底杰克逊霍尔研讨会期间发出的缩减规模信号开了绿灯。</blockquote> And yet there is one potential hurdle: the Delta surge and ensuing restrictions and/or lockdowns: as TD Ameritrade's JJ Kinahan says, \"because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.”<blockquote>然而，还有一个潜在的障碍：三角洲的激增以及随之而来的限制和/或封锁： 正如德美利证券（TD Ameritrade）的 JJ Kinahan 所说：“由于德尔塔变异毒株，在我们对此有更多了解之前，我认为它会给我们带来不同的压力，我们会说，好吧，现在我们处于观望模式。很高兴看到就业岗位和经济都在增长--希望在下一份就业报告中，我们就能知道经济能否继续以这样的速度增长。现在看来会的。”</blockquote> Do others agree? Below we have excerpted some analyst and strategist reactions to today's report.<blockquote>其他人同意吗？下面我们摘录了一些分析师和策略师对今天报告的反应。</blockquote> Katherine Judge, CIBC Capital Markets:<blockquote>CIBC 资本市场 Katherine Judge：</blockquote> “With many states set to see the unemployment benefit top-ups expire in early September, healthy job gains should continue ahead, in line with elevated job openings. This print should be enough to allow the Fed to announce an early 2022 tapering of QE at the September meeting.” Chris Turner, head of foreign exchange strategy at ING Bank:<blockquote>“由于许多州的失业救济金补贴将于 9 月初到期，健康的就业增长应与职位空缺的增加保持一致。这一数字应足以让美联储在 9 月份的会议上宣布在 2022 年初缩减量化宽松政策。”荷兰国际集团银行外汇策略主管克里斯·特纳：</blockquote> The stronger-than-expected jobs report makes it more likely that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell may “drop heavy hints” at the Jackson Hole Symposium later this month, that the central bank may prepare to start tapering over subsequent months. The data is positive for the dollar versus the low-yielders such as the yen and euro. Still, the outlook for the greenback “should not necessarily damage the risk environment....Unless U.S. 10 year yields spike aggressively, high yield EM currencies should see demand on dips” Carl Riccadonna, Bloomberg Intelligence economist:<blockquote>强于预期的就业报告使得美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）更有可能在本月晚些时候的杰克逊霍尔研讨会上 “暗示”美联储可能准备在未来几个月开始缩减规模。该数据对美元兑日元和欧元等低收益货币有利。尽管如此，美元的前景“不一定会损害风险环境……除非美国 10 年期国债收益率大幅飙升，否则高收益新兴市场货币应该会在下跌时看到需求”。彭博情报经济学家卡尔·里卡多纳：</blockquote> The jobs report is “sturdy, but not as strong as it looks.” In addition to the modest fade in the pace of private-sector hiring (703,000 in July vs. 769,000 in June), much of the July gain occurred in the tenuous leisure and hospitality sector -- and that could easily reverse due to Covid-19, he said. This already appears to be evident in metrics such as OpenTable bookings. “So if we look at private-sector hiring outside of leisure and hospitality, today’s reported gain was 323,000, a bit slower than the prior month’s 375,000. This tells us that underlying economic momentum is steady-state, not accelerating.” Neil Dutta, economist at Renaissance Macro:<blockquote>就业报告 “稳健，但并不像看起来那么强劲”。他说，除了私营部门招聘速度略有放缓（7 月份为 703,000 人，6 月份为 769,000 人）之外，7 月份的大部分增长都发生在脆弱的休闲和酒店业，而且由于 Covid-19，这种情况很容易逆转。这在OpenTable预订等指标中似乎已经很明显了。“因此，如果我们看看休闲和酒店业以外的私营部门招聘情况，今天报告的增幅为 32.3 万人，略低于上月的 37.5 万人。这告诉我们，潜在的经济动能是稳定的，而不是加速的。”Neil Dutta，Renaissance Macro 经济学家:</blockquote> The FOMC could upgrade its language in the September statement to say that the economy is “on track for substantial further progress,” which would lead to a declaration of achievement of substantial further progress in “November at the earliest.”&nbsp; Tapering, in that event, could begin as early as December. JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade:<blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会可能会在 9 月份的声明中升级措辞，称经济 “有望取得实质性进一步进展”，这将导致 “最早在 11 月 ”宣布取得实质性进一步进展。在这种情况下，缩减规模最早可能在 12 月开始。德美利证券首席市场策略师 JJ Kinahan：</blockquote> “It’s a great number, there’s no way around that, it really is an impressive number. But I think if we didn’t have this new delta variant coming up, the conversation we’d be having is, is this inflationary, does this mean we’ll go into a taper, etc. But because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.” Roberto Perli, head of global policy research at Cornerstone Macro:<blockquote>“这是一个很棒的数字，这是无法回避的，这真的是一个令人印象深刻的数字。但我认为，如果我们没有新的德尔塔变异毒株，我们会讨论的话题是，这是否会导致通货膨胀，这是否意味着我们将进入缩减通货膨胀等等。但由于德尔塔变异毒株，在我们对此有更多了解之前，我认为它会给我们带来不同的压力，我们会说，好吧，现在我们处于观望模式。很高兴看到就业和经济都在发展--希望在下一份就业报告中，我们就能知道经济能否继续以这样的速度发展。现在看来会的。”Cornerstone Macro 全球政策研究主管 Roberto Perli：</blockquote> “The Fed will have one more employment report before the September meeting. Assuming it will be good as well, a plausible base case is for the FOMC to say at the September meeting that the labor market continued to make good progress, and if the progress continues at the recent pace the committee will be in a position to start tapering its asset purchases over the next few months.&nbsp; That would put the onset of tapering in late December or early January.“So bottom line I think the timeline remains the same.&nbsp; It would be hard to start tapering in September because it would go against both the ‘coming meetings’ (plural) language in the July statement and the notion that the FOMC would provide ample notice before actually starting tapering.” <blockquote>“美联储将在9月会议前再发布一份就业报告。假设情况也不错，那么一个合理的基本情况是，联邦公开市场委员会在 9 月份的会议上表示，劳动力市场继续取得良好进展，如果进展继续以最近的速度进行，委员会将能够在未来几个月内开始缩减资产购买规模。这将使缩减资产购买规模的开始时间在 12 月底或 1 月初。“因此，我认为时间表保持不变。9 月份开始缩减资产规模很难，因为这既违背了 7 月份声明中'即将召开会议'（复数）的措辞，也违背了联邦公开市场委员会在实际开始缩减资产规模之前会提供充分通知的理念。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/enough-tapering-start-wall-street-reacts-blockbuster-jobs-report\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/enough-tapering-start-wall-street-reacts-blockbuster-jobs-report","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1145298738","content_text":"With the jobs report coming in at just shy of 1 million jobs on the establishment survey (and just over 1 million on the Household survey), with strong job creation, a big drop in unemployment rate, higher employment-to-population, rising wages and hours worked, and favorable revisions, consensus - at least judging by the market reaction - is that we have entered the \"substantial progress\" phase, greenlighting a tapering signal by the Fed at the end of the month during the Jackson Hole symposium.\nAnd yet there is one potential hurdle: the Delta surge and ensuing restrictions and/or lockdowns: as TD Ameritrade's JJ Kinahan says, \"because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.”\nDo others agree? Below we have excerpted some analyst and strategist reactions to today's report.\nKatherine Judge, CIBC Capital Markets:\n\n“With many states set to see the unemployment benefit top-ups expire in early September, healthy job gains should continue ahead, in line with elevated job openings. This print should be enough to allow the Fed to announce an early 2022 tapering of QE at the September meeting.”\n\nChris Turner, head of foreign exchange strategy at ING Bank:\n\nThe stronger-than-expected jobs report makes it more likely that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell may “drop heavy hints” at the Jackson Hole Symposium later this month, that the central bank may prepare to start tapering over subsequent months. The data is positive for the dollar versus the low-yielders such as the yen and euro. Still, the outlook for the greenback “should not necessarily damage the risk environment....Unless U.S. 10 year yields spike aggressively, high yield EM currencies should see demand on dips”\n\nCarl Riccadonna, Bloomberg Intelligence economist:\n\nThe jobs report is “sturdy, but not as strong as it looks.” In addition to the modest fade in the pace of private-sector hiring (703,000 in July vs. 769,000 in June), much of the July gain occurred in the tenuous leisure and hospitality sector -- and that could easily reverse due to Covid-19, he said. This already appears to be evident in metrics such as OpenTable bookings. “So if we look at private-sector hiring outside of leisure and hospitality, today’s reported gain was 323,000, a bit slower than the prior month’s 375,000.\nThis tells us that underlying economic momentum is steady-state, not accelerating.”\n\nNeil Dutta, economist at Renaissance Macro:\n\nThe FOMC could upgrade its language in the September statement to say that the economy is “on track for substantial further progress,” which would lead to a declaration of achievement of substantial further progress in “November at the earliest.”  Tapering, in that event, could begin as early as December.\n\nJJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade:\n\n“It’s a great number, there’s no way around that, it really is an impressive number. But I think if we didn’t have this new delta variant coming up, the conversation we’d be having is, is this inflationary, does this mean we’ll go into a taper, etc. But because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.”\n\nRoberto Perli, head of global policy research at Cornerstone Macro:\n\n“The Fed will have one more employment report before the September meeting. Assuming it will be good as well, a plausible base case is for the FOMC to say at the September meeting that the labor market continued to make good progress, and if the progress continues at the recent pace the committee will be in a position to start tapering its asset purchases over the next few months.  That would put the onset of tapering in late December or early January.“So bottom line I think the timeline remains the same.  It would be hard to start tapering in September because it would go against both the ‘coming meetings’ (plural) language in the July statement and the notion that the FOMC would provide ample notice before actually starting tapering.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":891972971,"gmtCreate":1628325340093,"gmtModify":1633751639220,"author":{"id":"4087283870161050","authorId":"4087283870161050","name":"Yvonne75","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10f7679b7264996bacb95bbc9091139d","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"4087283870161050","idStr":"4087283870161050"},"htmlText":"😃","listText":"😃","text":"😃","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/891972971","repostId":1145298738,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1145298738","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628259150,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1145298738?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-06 22:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"\"Enough For Tapering To Start\": Wall Street Reacts To A Blockbuster Jobs Report<blockquote>“足以开始缩减规模”：华尔街对重磅就业报告的反应</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1145298738","media":"zerohedge","summary":"With the jobs report coming in at just shy of 1 million jobs on the establishment survey (and just o","content":"With the jobs report coming in at just shy of 1 million jobs on the establishment survey (and just over 1 million on the Household survey), with strong job creation, a big drop in unemployment rate, higher employment-to-population, rising wages and hours worked, and favorable revisions, consensus - at least judging by the market reaction - is that we have entered the \"substantial progress\" phase, greenlighting a tapering signal by the Fed at the end of the month during the Jackson Hole symposium.<blockquote>就业报告显示，企业调查中的就业岗位略低于 100 万个（家庭调查中的就业岗位略高于 100 万个），就业创造强劲，失业率大幅下降，就业人口比率上升，工资和工作时间上涨，以及有利的修正，至少从市场反应来看，共识是我们已经进入了“实质性进展”阶段，为美联储在本月底杰克逊霍尔研讨会期间发出的缩减规模信号开了绿灯。</blockquote> And yet there is one potential hurdle: the Delta surge and ensuing restrictions and/or lockdowns: as TD Ameritrade's JJ Kinahan says, \"because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.”<blockquote>然而，还有一个潜在的障碍：三角洲的激增以及随之而来的限制和/或封锁： 正如德美利证券（TD Ameritrade）的 JJ Kinahan 所说：“由于德尔塔变异毒株，在我们对此有更多了解之前，我认为它会给我们带来不同的压力，我们会说，好吧，现在我们处于观望模式。很高兴看到就业岗位和经济都在增长--希望在下一份就业报告中，我们就能知道经济能否继续以这样的速度增长。现在看来会的。”</blockquote> Do others agree? Below we have excerpted some analyst and strategist reactions to today's report.<blockquote>其他人同意吗？下面我们摘录了一些分析师和策略师对今天报告的反应。</blockquote> Katherine Judge, CIBC Capital Markets:<blockquote>CIBC 资本市场 Katherine Judge：</blockquote> “With many states set to see the unemployment benefit top-ups expire in early September, healthy job gains should continue ahead, in line with elevated job openings. This print should be enough to allow the Fed to announce an early 2022 tapering of QE at the September meeting.” Chris Turner, head of foreign exchange strategy at ING Bank:<blockquote>“由于许多州的失业救济金补贴将于 9 月初到期，健康的就业增长应与职位空缺的增加保持一致。这一数字应足以让美联储在 9 月份的会议上宣布在 2022 年初缩减量化宽松政策。”荷兰国际集团银行外汇策略主管克里斯·特纳：</blockquote> The stronger-than-expected jobs report makes it more likely that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell may “drop heavy hints” at the Jackson Hole Symposium later this month, that the central bank may prepare to start tapering over subsequent months. The data is positive for the dollar versus the low-yielders such as the yen and euro. Still, the outlook for the greenback “should not necessarily damage the risk environment....Unless U.S. 10 year yields spike aggressively, high yield EM currencies should see demand on dips” Carl Riccadonna, Bloomberg Intelligence economist:<blockquote>强于预期的就业报告使得美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）更有可能在本月晚些时候的杰克逊霍尔研讨会上 “暗示”美联储可能准备在未来几个月开始缩减规模。该数据对美元兑日元和欧元等低收益货币有利。尽管如此，美元的前景“不一定会损害风险环境……除非美国 10 年期国债收益率大幅飙升，否则高收益新兴市场货币应该会在下跌时看到需求”。彭博情报经济学家卡尔·里卡多纳：</blockquote> The jobs report is “sturdy, but not as strong as it looks.” In addition to the modest fade in the pace of private-sector hiring (703,000 in July vs. 769,000 in June), much of the July gain occurred in the tenuous leisure and hospitality sector -- and that could easily reverse due to Covid-19, he said. This already appears to be evident in metrics such as OpenTable bookings. “So if we look at private-sector hiring outside of leisure and hospitality, today’s reported gain was 323,000, a bit slower than the prior month’s 375,000. This tells us that underlying economic momentum is steady-state, not accelerating.” Neil Dutta, economist at Renaissance Macro:<blockquote>就业报告 “稳健，但并不像看起来那么强劲”。他说，除了私营部门招聘速度略有放缓（7 月份为 703,000 人，6 月份为 769,000 人）之外，7 月份的大部分增长都发生在脆弱的休闲和酒店业，而且由于 Covid-19，这种情况很容易逆转。这在OpenTable预订等指标中似乎已经很明显了。“因此，如果我们看看休闲和酒店业以外的私营部门招聘情况，今天报告的增幅为 32.3 万人，略低于上月的 37.5 万人。这告诉我们，潜在的经济动能是稳定的，而不是加速的。”Neil Dutta，Renaissance Macro 经济学家:</blockquote> The FOMC could upgrade its language in the September statement to say that the economy is “on track for substantial further progress,” which would lead to a declaration of achievement of substantial further progress in “November at the earliest.”&nbsp; Tapering, in that event, could begin as early as December. JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade:<blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会可能会在 9 月份的声明中升级措辞，称经济 “有望取得实质性进一步进展”，这将导致 “最早在 11 月 ”宣布取得实质性进一步进展。在这种情况下，缩减规模最早可能在 12 月开始。德美利证券首席市场策略师 JJ Kinahan：</blockquote> “It’s a great number, there’s no way around that, it really is an impressive number. But I think if we didn’t have this new delta variant coming up, the conversation we’d be having is, is this inflationary, does this mean we’ll go into a taper, etc. But because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.” Roberto Perli, head of global policy research at Cornerstone Macro:<blockquote>“这是一个很棒的数字，这是无法回避的，这真的是一个令人印象深刻的数字。但我认为，如果我们没有新的德尔塔变异毒株，我们会讨论的话题是，这是否会导致通货膨胀，这是否意味着我们将进入缩减通货膨胀等等。但由于德尔塔变异毒株，在我们对此有更多了解之前，我认为它会给我们带来不同的压力，我们会说，好吧，现在我们处于观望模式。很高兴看到就业和经济都在发展--希望在下一份就业报告中，我们就能知道经济能否继续以这样的速度发展。现在看来会的。”Cornerstone Macro 全球政策研究主管 Roberto Perli：</blockquote> “The Fed will have one more employment report before the September meeting. Assuming it will be good as well, a plausible base case is for the FOMC to say at the September meeting that the labor market continued to make good progress, and if the progress continues at the recent pace the committee will be in a position to start tapering its asset purchases over the next few months.&nbsp; That would put the onset of tapering in late December or early January.“So bottom line I think the timeline remains the same.&nbsp; It would be hard to start tapering in September because it would go against both the ‘coming meetings’ (plural) language in the July statement and the notion that the FOMC would provide ample notice before actually starting tapering.” <blockquote>“美联储将在9月会议前再发布一份就业报告。假设情况也不错，那么一个合理的基本情况是，联邦公开市场委员会在 9 月份的会议上表示，劳动力市场继续取得良好进展，如果进展继续以最近的速度进行，委员会将能够在未来几个月内开始缩减资产购买规模。这将使缩减资产购买规模的开始时间在 12 月底或 1 月初。“因此，我认为时间表保持不变。9 月份开始缩减资产规模很难，因为这既违背了 7 月份声明中'即将召开会议'（复数）的措辞，也违背了联邦公开市场委员会在实际开始缩减资产规模之前会提供充分通知的理念。”</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.”<blockquote>然而，还有一个潜在的障碍：三角洲的激增以及随之而来的限制和/或封锁： 正如德美利证券（TD Ameritrade）的 JJ Kinahan 所说：“由于德尔塔变异毒株，在我们对此有更多了解之前，我认为它会给我们带来不同的压力，我们会说，好吧，现在我们处于观望模式。很高兴看到就业岗位和经济都在增长--希望在下一份就业报告中，我们就能知道经济能否继续以这样的速度增长。现在看来会的。”</blockquote> Do others agree? Below we have excerpted some analyst and strategist reactions to today's report.<blockquote>其他人同意吗？下面我们摘录了一些分析师和策略师对今天报告的反应。</blockquote> Katherine Judge, CIBC Capital Markets:<blockquote>CIBC 资本市场 Katherine Judge：</blockquote> “With many states set to see the unemployment benefit top-ups expire in early September, healthy job gains should continue ahead, in line with elevated job openings. This print should be enough to allow the Fed to announce an early 2022 tapering of QE at the September meeting.” Chris Turner, head of foreign exchange strategy at ING Bank:<blockquote>“由于许多州的失业救济金补贴将于 9 月初到期，健康的就业增长应与职位空缺的增加保持一致。这一数字应足以让美联储在 9 月份的会议上宣布在 2022 年初缩减量化宽松政策。”荷兰国际集团银行外汇策略主管克里斯·特纳：</blockquote> The stronger-than-expected jobs report makes it more likely that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell may “drop heavy hints” at the Jackson Hole Symposium later this month, that the central bank may prepare to start tapering over subsequent months. The data is positive for the dollar versus the low-yielders such as the yen and euro. Still, the outlook for the greenback “should not necessarily damage the risk environment....Unless U.S. 10 year yields spike aggressively, high yield EM currencies should see demand on dips” Carl Riccadonna, Bloomberg Intelligence economist:<blockquote>强于预期的就业报告使得美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）更有可能在本月晚些时候的杰克逊霍尔研讨会上 “暗示”美联储可能准备在未来几个月开始缩减规模。该数据对美元兑日元和欧元等低收益货币有利。尽管如此，美元的前景“不一定会损害风险环境……除非美国 10 年期国债收益率大幅飙升，否则高收益新兴市场货币应该会在下跌时看到需求”。彭博情报经济学家卡尔·里卡多纳：</blockquote> The jobs report is “sturdy, but not as strong as it looks.” In addition to the modest fade in the pace of private-sector hiring (703,000 in July vs. 769,000 in June), much of the July gain occurred in the tenuous leisure and hospitality sector -- and that could easily reverse due to Covid-19, he said. This already appears to be evident in metrics such as OpenTable bookings. “So if we look at private-sector hiring outside of leisure and hospitality, today’s reported gain was 323,000, a bit slower than the prior month’s 375,000. This tells us that underlying economic momentum is steady-state, not accelerating.” Neil Dutta, economist at Renaissance Macro:<blockquote>就业报告 “稳健，但并不像看起来那么强劲”。他说，除了私营部门招聘速度略有放缓（7 月份为 703,000 人，6 月份为 769,000 人）之外，7 月份的大部分增长都发生在脆弱的休闲和酒店业，而且由于 Covid-19，这种情况很容易逆转。这在OpenTable预订等指标中似乎已经很明显了。“因此，如果我们看看休闲和酒店业以外的私营部门招聘情况，今天报告的增幅为 32.3 万人，略低于上月的 37.5 万人。这告诉我们，潜在的经济动能是稳定的，而不是加速的。”Neil Dutta，Renaissance Macro 经济学家:</blockquote> The FOMC could upgrade its language in the September statement to say that the economy is “on track for substantial further progress,” which would lead to a declaration of achievement of substantial further progress in “November at the earliest.”&nbsp; Tapering, in that event, could begin as early as December. JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade:<blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会可能会在 9 月份的声明中升级措辞，称经济 “有望取得实质性进一步进展”，这将导致 “最早在 11 月 ”宣布取得实质性进一步进展。在这种情况下，缩减规模最早可能在 12 月开始。德美利证券首席市场策略师 JJ Kinahan：</blockquote> “It’s a great number, there’s no way around that, it really is an impressive number. But I think if we didn’t have this new delta variant coming up, the conversation we’d be having is, is this inflationary, does this mean we’ll go into a taper, etc. But because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.” Roberto Perli, head of global policy research at Cornerstone Macro:<blockquote>“这是一个很棒的数字，这是无法回避的，这真的是一个令人印象深刻的数字。但我认为，如果我们没有新的德尔塔变异毒株，我们会讨论的话题是，这是否会导致通货膨胀，这是否意味着我们将进入缩减通货膨胀等等。但由于德尔塔变异毒株，在我们对此有更多了解之前，我认为它会给我们带来不同的压力，我们会说，好吧，现在我们处于观望模式。很高兴看到就业和经济都在发展--希望在下一份就业报告中，我们就能知道经济能否继续以这样的速度发展。现在看来会的。”Cornerstone Macro 全球政策研究主管 Roberto Perli：</blockquote> “The Fed will have one more employment report before the September meeting. Assuming it will be good as well, a plausible base case is for the FOMC to say at the September meeting that the labor market continued to make good progress, and if the progress continues at the recent pace the committee will be in a position to start tapering its asset purchases over the next few months.&nbsp; That would put the onset of tapering in late December or early January.“So bottom line I think the timeline remains the same.&nbsp; It would be hard to start tapering in September because it would go against both the ‘coming meetings’ (plural) language in the July statement and the notion that the FOMC would provide ample notice before actually starting tapering.” <blockquote>“美联储将在9月会议前再发布一份就业报告。假设情况也不错，那么一个合理的基本情况是，联邦公开市场委员会在 9 月份的会议上表示，劳动力市场继续取得良好进展，如果进展继续以最近的速度进行，委员会将能够在未来几个月内开始缩减资产购买规模。这将使缩减资产购买规模的开始时间在 12 月底或 1 月初。“因此，我认为时间表保持不变。9 月份开始缩减资产规模很难，因为这既违背了 7 月份声明中'即将召开会议'（复数）的措辞，也违背了联邦公开市场委员会在实际开始缩减资产规模之前会提供充分通知的理念。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/enough-tapering-start-wall-street-reacts-blockbuster-jobs-report\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/enough-tapering-start-wall-street-reacts-blockbuster-jobs-report","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1145298738","content_text":"With the jobs report coming in at just shy of 1 million jobs on the establishment survey (and just over 1 million on the Household survey), with strong job creation, a big drop in unemployment rate, higher employment-to-population, rising wages and hours worked, and favorable revisions, consensus - at least judging by the market reaction - is that we have entered the \"substantial progress\" phase, greenlighting a tapering signal by the Fed at the end of the month during the Jackson Hole symposium.\nAnd yet there is one potential hurdle: the Delta surge and ensuing restrictions and/or lockdowns: as TD Ameritrade's JJ Kinahan says, \"because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.”\nDo others agree? Below we have excerpted some analyst and strategist reactions to today's report.\nKatherine Judge, CIBC Capital Markets:\n\n“With many states set to see the unemployment benefit top-ups expire in early September, healthy job gains should continue ahead, in line with elevated job openings. This print should be enough to allow the Fed to announce an early 2022 tapering of QE at the September meeting.”\n\nChris Turner, head of foreign exchange strategy at ING Bank:\n\nThe stronger-than-expected jobs report makes it more likely that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell may “drop heavy hints” at the Jackson Hole Symposium later this month, that the central bank may prepare to start tapering over subsequent months. The data is positive for the dollar versus the low-yielders such as the yen and euro. Still, the outlook for the greenback “should not necessarily damage the risk environment....Unless U.S. 10 year yields spike aggressively, high yield EM currencies should see demand on dips”\n\nCarl Riccadonna, Bloomberg Intelligence economist:\n\nThe jobs report is “sturdy, but not as strong as it looks.” In addition to the modest fade in the pace of private-sector hiring (703,000 in July vs. 769,000 in June), much of the July gain occurred in the tenuous leisure and hospitality sector -- and that could easily reverse due to Covid-19, he said. This already appears to be evident in metrics such as OpenTable bookings. “So if we look at private-sector hiring outside of leisure and hospitality, today’s reported gain was 323,000, a bit slower than the prior month’s 375,000.\nThis tells us that underlying economic momentum is steady-state, not accelerating.”\n\nNeil Dutta, economist at Renaissance Macro:\n\nThe FOMC could upgrade its language in the September statement to say that the economy is “on track for substantial further progress,” which would lead to a declaration of achievement of substantial further progress in “November at the earliest.”  Tapering, in that event, could begin as early as December.\n\nJJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade:\n\n“It’s a great number, there’s no way around that, it really is an impressive number. But I think if we didn’t have this new delta variant coming up, the conversation we’d be having is, is this inflationary, does this mean we’ll go into a taper, etc. But because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.”\n\nRoberto Perli, head of global policy research at Cornerstone Macro:\n\n“The Fed will have one more employment report before the September meeting. Assuming it will be good as well, a plausible base case is for the FOMC to say at the September meeting that the labor market continued to make good progress, and if the progress continues at the recent pace the committee will be in a position to start tapering its asset purchases over the next few months.  That would put the onset of tapering in late December or early January.“So bottom line I think the timeline remains the same.  It would be hard to start tapering in September because it would go against both the ‘coming meetings’ (plural) language in the July statement and the notion that the FOMC would provide ample notice before actually starting tapering.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5455356,"gmtCreate":1628325365847,"gmtModify":1635157731767,"authorId":4087283870161050,"author":{"id":4087283870161050,"idStr":"4087283870161050","authorId":4087283870161050,"name":"Yvonne75","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10f7679b7264996bacb95bbc9091139d","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":891972971,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"666","text":"666","html":"666"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":891989521,"gmtCreate":1628317185063,"gmtModify":1631886899918,"author":{"id":"3582787377527417","authorId":"3582787377527417","name":"48abff9e","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3582787377527417","idStr":"3582787377527417"},"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":92,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/891989521","repostId":1145298738,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1145298738","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628259150,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1145298738?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-06 22:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"\"Enough For Tapering To Start\": Wall Street Reacts To A Blockbuster Jobs Report<blockquote>“足以开始缩减规模”：华尔街对重磅就业报告的反应</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1145298738","media":"zerohedge","summary":"With the jobs report coming in at just shy of 1 million jobs on the establishment survey (and just o","content":"With the jobs report coming in at just shy of 1 million jobs on the establishment survey (and just over 1 million on the Household survey), with strong job creation, a big drop in unemployment rate, higher employment-to-population, rising wages and hours worked, and favorable revisions, consensus - at least judging by the market reaction - is that we have entered the \"substantial progress\" phase, greenlighting a tapering signal by the Fed at the end of the month during the Jackson Hole symposium.<blockquote>就业报告显示，企业调查中的就业岗位略低于 100 万个（家庭调查中的就业岗位略高于 100 万个），就业创造强劲，失业率大幅下降，就业人口比率上升，工资和工作时间上涨，以及有利的修正，至少从市场反应来看，共识是我们已经进入了“实质性进展”阶段，为美联储在本月底杰克逊霍尔研讨会期间发出的缩减规模信号开了绿灯。</blockquote> And yet there is one potential hurdle: the Delta surge and ensuing restrictions and/or lockdowns: as TD Ameritrade's JJ Kinahan says, \"because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.”<blockquote>然而，还有一个潜在的障碍：三角洲的激增以及随之而来的限制和/或封锁： 正如德美利证券（TD Ameritrade）的 JJ Kinahan 所说：“由于德尔塔变异毒株，在我们对此有更多了解之前，我认为它会给我们带来不同的压力，我们会说，好吧，现在我们处于观望模式。很高兴看到就业岗位和经济都在增长--希望在下一份就业报告中，我们就能知道经济能否继续以这样的速度增长。现在看来会的。”</blockquote> Do others agree? Below we have excerpted some analyst and strategist reactions to today's report.<blockquote>其他人同意吗？下面我们摘录了一些分析师和策略师对今天报告的反应。</blockquote> Katherine Judge, CIBC Capital Markets:<blockquote>CIBC 资本市场 Katherine Judge：</blockquote> “With many states set to see the unemployment benefit top-ups expire in early September, healthy job gains should continue ahead, in line with elevated job openings. This print should be enough to allow the Fed to announce an early 2022 tapering of QE at the September meeting.” Chris Turner, head of foreign exchange strategy at ING Bank:<blockquote>“由于许多州的失业救济金补贴将于 9 月初到期，健康的就业增长应与职位空缺的增加保持一致。这一数字应足以让美联储在 9 月份的会议上宣布在 2022 年初缩减量化宽松政策。”荷兰国际集团银行外汇策略主管克里斯·特纳：</blockquote> The stronger-than-expected jobs report makes it more likely that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell may “drop heavy hints” at the Jackson Hole Symposium later this month, that the central bank may prepare to start tapering over subsequent months. The data is positive for the dollar versus the low-yielders such as the yen and euro. Still, the outlook for the greenback “should not necessarily damage the risk environment....Unless U.S. 10 year yields spike aggressively, high yield EM currencies should see demand on dips” Carl Riccadonna, Bloomberg Intelligence economist:<blockquote>强于预期的就业报告使得美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）更有可能在本月晚些时候的杰克逊霍尔研讨会上 “暗示”美联储可能准备在未来几个月开始缩减规模。该数据对美元兑日元和欧元等低收益货币有利。尽管如此，美元的前景“不一定会损害风险环境……除非美国 10 年期国债收益率大幅飙升，否则高收益新兴市场货币应该会在下跌时看到需求”。彭博情报经济学家卡尔·里卡多纳：</blockquote> The jobs report is “sturdy, but not as strong as it looks.” In addition to the modest fade in the pace of private-sector hiring (703,000 in July vs. 769,000 in June), much of the July gain occurred in the tenuous leisure and hospitality sector -- and that could easily reverse due to Covid-19, he said. This already appears to be evident in metrics such as OpenTable bookings. “So if we look at private-sector hiring outside of leisure and hospitality, today’s reported gain was 323,000, a bit slower than the prior month’s 375,000. This tells us that underlying economic momentum is steady-state, not accelerating.” Neil Dutta, economist at Renaissance Macro:<blockquote>就业报告 “稳健，但并不像看起来那么强劲”。他说，除了私营部门招聘速度略有放缓（7 月份为 703,000 人，6 月份为 769,000 人）之外，7 月份的大部分增长都发生在脆弱的休闲和酒店业，而且由于 Covid-19，这种情况很容易逆转。这在OpenTable预订等指标中似乎已经很明显了。“因此，如果我们看看休闲和酒店业以外的私营部门招聘情况，今天报告的增幅为 32.3 万人，略低于上月的 37.5 万人。这告诉我们，潜在的经济动能是稳定的，而不是加速的。”Neil Dutta，Renaissance Macro 经济学家:</blockquote> The FOMC could upgrade its language in the September statement to say that the economy is “on track for substantial further progress,” which would lead to a declaration of achievement of substantial further progress in “November at the earliest.”&nbsp; Tapering, in that event, could begin as early as December. JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade:<blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会可能会在 9 月份的声明中升级措辞，称经济 “有望取得实质性进一步进展”，这将导致 “最早在 11 月 ”宣布取得实质性进一步进展。在这种情况下，缩减规模最早可能在 12 月开始。德美利证券首席市场策略师 JJ Kinahan：</blockquote> “It’s a great number, there’s no way around that, it really is an impressive number. But I think if we didn’t have this new delta variant coming up, the conversation we’d be having is, is this inflationary, does this mean we’ll go into a taper, etc. But because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.” Roberto Perli, head of global policy research at Cornerstone Macro:<blockquote>“这是一个很棒的数字，这是无法回避的，这真的是一个令人印象深刻的数字。但我认为，如果我们没有新的德尔塔变异毒株，我们会讨论的话题是，这是否会导致通货膨胀，这是否意味着我们将进入缩减通货膨胀等等。但由于德尔塔变异毒株，在我们对此有更多了解之前，我认为它会给我们带来不同的压力，我们会说，好吧，现在我们处于观望模式。很高兴看到就业和经济都在发展--希望在下一份就业报告中，我们就能知道经济能否继续以这样的速度发展。现在看来会的。”Cornerstone Macro 全球政策研究主管 Roberto Perli：</blockquote> “The Fed will have one more employment report before the September meeting. Assuming it will be good as well, a plausible base case is for the FOMC to say at the September meeting that the labor market continued to make good progress, and if the progress continues at the recent pace the committee will be in a position to start tapering its asset purchases over the next few months.&nbsp; That would put the onset of tapering in late December or early January.“So bottom line I think the timeline remains the same.&nbsp; It would be hard to start tapering in September because it would go against both the ‘coming meetings’ (plural) language in the July statement and the notion that the FOMC would provide ample notice before actually starting tapering.” <blockquote>“美联储将在9月会议前再发布一份就业报告。假设情况也不错，那么一个合理的基本情况是，联邦公开市场委员会在 9 月份的会议上表示，劳动力市场继续取得良好进展，如果进展继续以最近的速度进行，委员会将能够在未来几个月内开始缩减资产购买规模。这将使缩减资产购买规模的开始时间在 12 月底或 1 月初。“因此，我认为时间表保持不变。9 月份开始缩减资产规模很难，因为这既违背了 7 月份声明中'即将召开会议'（复数）的措辞，也违背了联邦公开市场委员会在实际开始缩减资产规模之前会提供充分通知的理念。”</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.”<blockquote>然而，还有一个潜在的障碍：三角洲的激增以及随之而来的限制和/或封锁： 正如德美利证券（TD Ameritrade）的 JJ Kinahan 所说：“由于德尔塔变异毒株，在我们对此有更多了解之前，我认为它会给我们带来不同的压力，我们会说，好吧，现在我们处于观望模式。很高兴看到就业岗位和经济都在增长--希望在下一份就业报告中，我们就能知道经济能否继续以这样的速度增长。现在看来会的。”</blockquote> Do others agree? Below we have excerpted some analyst and strategist reactions to today's report.<blockquote>其他人同意吗？下面我们摘录了一些分析师和策略师对今天报告的反应。</blockquote> Katherine Judge, CIBC Capital Markets:<blockquote>CIBC 资本市场 Katherine Judge：</blockquote> “With many states set to see the unemployment benefit top-ups expire in early September, healthy job gains should continue ahead, in line with elevated job openings. This print should be enough to allow the Fed to announce an early 2022 tapering of QE at the September meeting.” Chris Turner, head of foreign exchange strategy at ING Bank:<blockquote>“由于许多州的失业救济金补贴将于 9 月初到期，健康的就业增长应与职位空缺的增加保持一致。这一数字应足以让美联储在 9 月份的会议上宣布在 2022 年初缩减量化宽松政策。”荷兰国际集团银行外汇策略主管克里斯·特纳：</blockquote> The stronger-than-expected jobs report makes it more likely that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell may “drop heavy hints” at the Jackson Hole Symposium later this month, that the central bank may prepare to start tapering over subsequent months. The data is positive for the dollar versus the low-yielders such as the yen and euro. Still, the outlook for the greenback “should not necessarily damage the risk environment....Unless U.S. 10 year yields spike aggressively, high yield EM currencies should see demand on dips” Carl Riccadonna, Bloomberg Intelligence economist:<blockquote>强于预期的就业报告使得美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）更有可能在本月晚些时候的杰克逊霍尔研讨会上 “暗示”美联储可能准备在未来几个月开始缩减规模。该数据对美元兑日元和欧元等低收益货币有利。尽管如此，美元的前景“不一定会损害风险环境……除非美国 10 年期国债收益率大幅飙升，否则高收益新兴市场货币应该会在下跌时看到需求”。彭博情报经济学家卡尔·里卡多纳：</blockquote> The jobs report is “sturdy, but not as strong as it looks.” In addition to the modest fade in the pace of private-sector hiring (703,000 in July vs. 769,000 in June), much of the July gain occurred in the tenuous leisure and hospitality sector -- and that could easily reverse due to Covid-19, he said. This already appears to be evident in metrics such as OpenTable bookings. “So if we look at private-sector hiring outside of leisure and hospitality, today’s reported gain was 323,000, a bit slower than the prior month’s 375,000. This tells us that underlying economic momentum is steady-state, not accelerating.” Neil Dutta, economist at Renaissance Macro:<blockquote>就业报告 “稳健，但并不像看起来那么强劲”。他说，除了私营部门招聘速度略有放缓（7 月份为 703,000 人，6 月份为 769,000 人）之外，7 月份的大部分增长都发生在脆弱的休闲和酒店业，而且由于 Covid-19，这种情况很容易逆转。这在OpenTable预订等指标中似乎已经很明显了。“因此，如果我们看看休闲和酒店业以外的私营部门招聘情况，今天报告的增幅为 32.3 万人，略低于上月的 37.5 万人。这告诉我们，潜在的经济动能是稳定的，而不是加速的。”Neil Dutta，Renaissance Macro 经济学家:</blockquote> The FOMC could upgrade its language in the September statement to say that the economy is “on track for substantial further progress,” which would lead to a declaration of achievement of substantial further progress in “November at the earliest.”&nbsp; Tapering, in that event, could begin as early as December. JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade:<blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会可能会在 9 月份的声明中升级措辞，称经济 “有望取得实质性进一步进展”，这将导致 “最早在 11 月 ”宣布取得实质性进一步进展。在这种情况下，缩减规模最早可能在 12 月开始。德美利证券首席市场策略师 JJ Kinahan：</blockquote> “It’s a great number, there’s no way around that, it really is an impressive number. But I think if we didn’t have this new delta variant coming up, the conversation we’d be having is, is this inflationary, does this mean we’ll go into a taper, etc. But because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.” Roberto Perli, head of global policy research at Cornerstone Macro:<blockquote>“这是一个很棒的数字，这是无法回避的，这真的是一个令人印象深刻的数字。但我认为，如果我们没有新的德尔塔变异毒株，我们会讨论的话题是，这是否会导致通货膨胀，这是否意味着我们将进入缩减通货膨胀等等。但由于德尔塔变异毒株，在我们对此有更多了解之前，我认为它会给我们带来不同的压力，我们会说，好吧，现在我们处于观望模式。很高兴看到就业和经济都在发展--希望在下一份就业报告中，我们就能知道经济能否继续以这样的速度发展。现在看来会的。”Cornerstone Macro 全球政策研究主管 Roberto Perli：</blockquote> “The Fed will have one more employment report before the September meeting. Assuming it will be good as well, a plausible base case is for the FOMC to say at the September meeting that the labor market continued to make good progress, and if the progress continues at the recent pace the committee will be in a position to start tapering its asset purchases over the next few months.&nbsp; That would put the onset of tapering in late December or early January.“So bottom line I think the timeline remains the same.&nbsp; It would be hard to start tapering in September because it would go against both the ‘coming meetings’ (plural) language in the July statement and the notion that the FOMC would provide ample notice before actually starting tapering.” <blockquote>“美联储将在9月会议前再发布一份就业报告。假设情况也不错，那么一个合理的基本情况是，联邦公开市场委员会在 9 月份的会议上表示，劳动力市场继续取得良好进展，如果进展继续以最近的速度进行，委员会将能够在未来几个月内开始缩减资产购买规模。这将使缩减资产购买规模的开始时间在 12 月底或 1 月初。“因此，我认为时间表保持不变。9 月份开始缩减资产规模很难，因为这既违背了 7 月份声明中'即将召开会议'（复数）的措辞，也违背了联邦公开市场委员会在实际开始缩减资产规模之前会提供充分通知的理念。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/enough-tapering-start-wall-street-reacts-blockbuster-jobs-report\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/enough-tapering-start-wall-street-reacts-blockbuster-jobs-report","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1145298738","content_text":"With the jobs report coming in at just shy of 1 million jobs on the establishment survey (and just over 1 million on the Household survey), with strong job creation, a big drop in unemployment rate, higher employment-to-population, rising wages and hours worked, and favorable revisions, consensus - at least judging by the market reaction - is that we have entered the \"substantial progress\" phase, greenlighting a tapering signal by the Fed at the end of the month during the Jackson Hole symposium.\nAnd yet there is one potential hurdle: the Delta surge and ensuing restrictions and/or lockdowns: as TD Ameritrade's JJ Kinahan says, \"because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.”\nDo others agree? Below we have excerpted some analyst and strategist reactions to today's report.\nKatherine Judge, CIBC Capital Markets:\n\n“With many states set to see the unemployment benefit top-ups expire in early September, healthy job gains should continue ahead, in line with elevated job openings. This print should be enough to allow the Fed to announce an early 2022 tapering of QE at the September meeting.”\n\nChris Turner, head of foreign exchange strategy at ING Bank:\n\nThe stronger-than-expected jobs report makes it more likely that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell may “drop heavy hints” at the Jackson Hole Symposium later this month, that the central bank may prepare to start tapering over subsequent months. The data is positive for the dollar versus the low-yielders such as the yen and euro. Still, the outlook for the greenback “should not necessarily damage the risk environment....Unless U.S. 10 year yields spike aggressively, high yield EM currencies should see demand on dips”\n\nCarl Riccadonna, Bloomberg Intelligence economist:\n\nThe jobs report is “sturdy, but not as strong as it looks.” In addition to the modest fade in the pace of private-sector hiring (703,000 in July vs. 769,000 in June), much of the July gain occurred in the tenuous leisure and hospitality sector -- and that could easily reverse due to Covid-19, he said. This already appears to be evident in metrics such as OpenTable bookings. “So if we look at private-sector hiring outside of leisure and hospitality, today’s reported gain was 323,000, a bit slower than the prior month’s 375,000.\nThis tells us that underlying economic momentum is steady-state, not accelerating.”\n\nNeil Dutta, economist at Renaissance Macro:\n\nThe FOMC could upgrade its language in the September statement to say that the economy is “on track for substantial further progress,” which would lead to a declaration of achievement of substantial further progress in “November at the earliest.”  Tapering, in that event, could begin as early as December.\n\nJJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade:\n\n“It’s a great number, there’s no way around that, it really is an impressive number. But I think if we didn’t have this new delta variant coming up, the conversation we’d be having is, is this inflationary, does this mean we’ll go into a taper, etc. But because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.”\n\nRoberto Perli, head of global policy research at Cornerstone Macro:\n\n“The Fed will have one more employment report before the September meeting. Assuming it will be good as well, a plausible base case is for the FOMC to say at the September meeting that the labor market continued to make good progress, and if the progress continues at the recent pace the committee will be in a position to start tapering its asset purchases over the next few months.  That would put the onset of tapering in late December or early January.“So bottom line I think the timeline remains the same.  It would be hard to start tapering in September because it would go against both the ‘coming meetings’ (plural) language in the July statement and the notion that the FOMC would provide ample notice before actually starting tapering.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6385310,"gmtCreate":1635576806121,"gmtModify":1635576806152,"authorId":3582787377527417,"author":{"id":3582787377527417,"idStr":"3582787377527417","authorId":3582787377527417,"name":"48abff9e","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":891989521,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Like","text":"Like","html":"Like"},{"id":6353351,"gmtCreate":1635387496901,"gmtModify":1635387496989,"authorId":3582787377527417,"author":{"id":3582787377527417,"idStr":"3582787377527417","authorId":3582787377527417,"name":"48abff9e","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":891989521,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Like","text":"Like","html":"Like"},{"id":6353241,"gmtCreate":1635386980507,"gmtModify":1635386980539,"authorId":3565310354947569,"author":{"id":3565310354947569,"idStr":"3565310354947569","authorId":3565310354947569,"name":"Che111","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7607549a76ff5ec77f8d3bffa482d66a","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":891989521,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Like","text":"Like","html":"Like"},{"id":6330546,"gmtCreate":1635237885495,"gmtModify":1635237885535,"authorId":3565310354947569,"author":{"id":3565310354947569,"idStr":"3565310354947569","authorId":3565310354947569,"name":"Che111","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7607549a76ff5ec77f8d3bffa482d66a","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":891989521,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Like","text":"Like","html":"Like"},{"id":6308425,"gmtCreate":1635072012629,"gmtModify":1635072012740,"authorId":3582787377527417,"author":{"id":3582787377527417,"idStr":"3582787377527417","authorId":3582787377527417,"name":"48abff9e","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":891989521,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Like","text":"Like","html":"Like"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":891044073,"gmtCreate":1628310936392,"gmtModify":1633751729002,"author":{"id":"3586717747076728","authorId":"3586717747076728","name":"HeoMoi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd9a6f58d920c83ea98052a3d88760b6","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3586717747076728","idStr":"3586717747076728"},"htmlText":"I like","listText":"I like","text":"I like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/891044073","repostId":1145298738,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1145298738","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628259150,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1145298738?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-06 22:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"\"Enough For Tapering To Start\": Wall Street Reacts To A Blockbuster Jobs Report<blockquote>“足以开始缩减规模”：华尔街对重磅就业报告的反应</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1145298738","media":"zerohedge","summary":"With the jobs report coming in at just shy of 1 million jobs on the establishment survey (and just o","content":"With the jobs report coming in at just shy of 1 million jobs on the establishment survey (and just over 1 million on the Household survey), with strong job creation, a big drop in unemployment rate, higher employment-to-population, rising wages and hours worked, and favorable revisions, consensus - at least judging by the market reaction - is that we have entered the \"substantial progress\" phase, greenlighting a tapering signal by the Fed at the end of the month during the Jackson Hole symposium.<blockquote>就业报告显示，企业调查中的就业岗位略低于 100 万个（家庭调查中的就业岗位略高于 100 万个），就业创造强劲，失业率大幅下降，就业人口比率上升，工资和工作时间上涨，以及有利的修正，至少从市场反应来看，共识是我们已经进入了“实质性进展”阶段，为美联储在本月底杰克逊霍尔研讨会期间发出的缩减规模信号开了绿灯。</blockquote> And yet there is one potential hurdle: the Delta surge and ensuing restrictions and/or lockdowns: as TD Ameritrade's JJ Kinahan says, \"because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.”<blockquote>然而，还有一个潜在的障碍：三角洲的激增以及随之而来的限制和/或封锁： 正如德美利证券（TD Ameritrade）的 JJ Kinahan 所说：“由于德尔塔变异毒株，在我们对此有更多了解之前，我认为它会给我们带来不同的压力，我们会说，好吧，现在我们处于观望模式。很高兴看到就业岗位和经济都在增长--希望在下一份就业报告中，我们就能知道经济能否继续以这样的速度增长。现在看来会的。”</blockquote> Do others agree? Below we have excerpted some analyst and strategist reactions to today's report.<blockquote>其他人同意吗？下面我们摘录了一些分析师和策略师对今天报告的反应。</blockquote> Katherine Judge, CIBC Capital Markets:<blockquote>CIBC 资本市场 Katherine Judge：</blockquote> “With many states set to see the unemployment benefit top-ups expire in early September, healthy job gains should continue ahead, in line with elevated job openings. This print should be enough to allow the Fed to announce an early 2022 tapering of QE at the September meeting.” Chris Turner, head of foreign exchange strategy at ING Bank:<blockquote>“由于许多州的失业救济金补贴将于 9 月初到期，健康的就业增长应与职位空缺的增加保持一致。这一数字应足以让美联储在 9 月份的会议上宣布在 2022 年初缩减量化宽松政策。”荷兰国际集团银行外汇策略主管克里斯·特纳：</blockquote> The stronger-than-expected jobs report makes it more likely that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell may “drop heavy hints” at the Jackson Hole Symposium later this month, that the central bank may prepare to start tapering over subsequent months. The data is positive for the dollar versus the low-yielders such as the yen and euro. Still, the outlook for the greenback “should not necessarily damage the risk environment....Unless U.S. 10 year yields spike aggressively, high yield EM currencies should see demand on dips” Carl Riccadonna, Bloomberg Intelligence economist:<blockquote>强于预期的就业报告使得美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）更有可能在本月晚些时候的杰克逊霍尔研讨会上 “暗示”美联储可能准备在未来几个月开始缩减规模。该数据对美元兑日元和欧元等低收益货币有利。尽管如此，美元的前景“不一定会损害风险环境……除非美国 10 年期国债收益率大幅飙升，否则高收益新兴市场货币应该会在下跌时看到需求”。彭博情报经济学家卡尔·里卡多纳：</blockquote> The jobs report is “sturdy, but not as strong as it looks.” In addition to the modest fade in the pace of private-sector hiring (703,000 in July vs. 769,000 in June), much of the July gain occurred in the tenuous leisure and hospitality sector -- and that could easily reverse due to Covid-19, he said. This already appears to be evident in metrics such as OpenTable bookings. “So if we look at private-sector hiring outside of leisure and hospitality, today’s reported gain was 323,000, a bit slower than the prior month’s 375,000. This tells us that underlying economic momentum is steady-state, not accelerating.” Neil Dutta, economist at Renaissance Macro:<blockquote>就业报告 “稳健，但并不像看起来那么强劲”。他说，除了私营部门招聘速度略有放缓（7 月份为 703,000 人，6 月份为 769,000 人）之外，7 月份的大部分增长都发生在脆弱的休闲和酒店业，而且由于 Covid-19，这种情况很容易逆转。这在OpenTable预订等指标中似乎已经很明显了。“因此，如果我们看看休闲和酒店业以外的私营部门招聘情况，今天报告的增幅为 32.3 万人，略低于上月的 37.5 万人。这告诉我们，潜在的经济动能是稳定的，而不是加速的。”Neil Dutta，Renaissance Macro 经济学家:</blockquote> The FOMC could upgrade its language in the September statement to say that the economy is “on track for substantial further progress,” which would lead to a declaration of achievement of substantial further progress in “November at the earliest.”&nbsp; Tapering, in that event, could begin as early as December. JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade:<blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会可能会在 9 月份的声明中升级措辞，称经济 “有望取得实质性进一步进展”，这将导致 “最早在 11 月 ”宣布取得实质性进一步进展。在这种情况下，缩减规模最早可能在 12 月开始。德美利证券首席市场策略师 JJ Kinahan：</blockquote> “It’s a great number, there’s no way around that, it really is an impressive number. But I think if we didn’t have this new delta variant coming up, the conversation we’d be having is, is this inflationary, does this mean we’ll go into a taper, etc. But because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.” Roberto Perli, head of global policy research at Cornerstone Macro:<blockquote>“这是一个很棒的数字，这是无法回避的，这真的是一个令人印象深刻的数字。但我认为，如果我们没有新的德尔塔变异毒株，我们会讨论的话题是，这是否会导致通货膨胀，这是否意味着我们将进入缩减通货膨胀等等。但由于德尔塔变异毒株，在我们对此有更多了解之前，我认为它会给我们带来不同的压力，我们会说，好吧，现在我们处于观望模式。很高兴看到就业和经济都在发展--希望在下一份就业报告中，我们就能知道经济能否继续以这样的速度发展。现在看来会的。”Cornerstone Macro 全球政策研究主管 Roberto Perli：</blockquote> “The Fed will have one more employment report before the September meeting. Assuming it will be good as well, a plausible base case is for the FOMC to say at the September meeting that the labor market continued to make good progress, and if the progress continues at the recent pace the committee will be in a position to start tapering its asset purchases over the next few months.&nbsp; That would put the onset of tapering in late December or early January.“So bottom line I think the timeline remains the same.&nbsp; It would be hard to start tapering in September because it would go against both the ‘coming meetings’ (plural) language in the July statement and the notion that the FOMC would provide ample notice before actually starting tapering.” <blockquote>“美联储将在9月会议前再发布一份就业报告。假设情况也不错，那么一个合理的基本情况是，联邦公开市场委员会在 9 月份的会议上表示，劳动力市场继续取得良好进展，如果进展继续以最近的速度进行，委员会将能够在未来几个月内开始缩减资产购买规模。这将使缩减资产购买规模的开始时间在 12 月底或 1 月初。“因此，我认为时间表保持不变。9 月份开始缩减资产规模很难，因为这既违背了 7 月份声明中'即将召开会议'（复数）的措辞，也违背了联邦公开市场委员会在实际开始缩减资产规模之前会提供充分通知的理念。”</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>\"Enough For Tapering To Start\": Wall Street Reacts To A Blockbuster Jobs Report<blockquote>“足以开始缩减规模”：华尔街对重磅就业报告的反应</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.”<blockquote>然而，还有一个潜在的障碍：三角洲的激增以及随之而来的限制和/或封锁： 正如德美利证券（TD Ameritrade）的 JJ Kinahan 所说：“由于德尔塔变异毒株，在我们对此有更多了解之前，我认为它会给我们带来不同的压力，我们会说，好吧，现在我们处于观望模式。很高兴看到就业岗位和经济都在增长--希望在下一份就业报告中，我们就能知道经济能否继续以这样的速度增长。现在看来会的。”</blockquote> Do others agree? Below we have excerpted some analyst and strategist reactions to today's report.<blockquote>其他人同意吗？下面我们摘录了一些分析师和策略师对今天报告的反应。</blockquote> Katherine Judge, CIBC Capital Markets:<blockquote>CIBC 资本市场 Katherine Judge：</blockquote> “With many states set to see the unemployment benefit top-ups expire in early September, healthy job gains should continue ahead, in line with elevated job openings. This print should be enough to allow the Fed to announce an early 2022 tapering of QE at the September meeting.” Chris Turner, head of foreign exchange strategy at ING Bank:<blockquote>“由于许多州的失业救济金补贴将于 9 月初到期，健康的就业增长应与职位空缺的增加保持一致。这一数字应足以让美联储在 9 月份的会议上宣布在 2022 年初缩减量化宽松政策。”荷兰国际集团银行外汇策略主管克里斯·特纳：</blockquote> The stronger-than-expected jobs report makes it more likely that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell may “drop heavy hints” at the Jackson Hole Symposium later this month, that the central bank may prepare to start tapering over subsequent months. The data is positive for the dollar versus the low-yielders such as the yen and euro. Still, the outlook for the greenback “should not necessarily damage the risk environment....Unless U.S. 10 year yields spike aggressively, high yield EM currencies should see demand on dips” Carl Riccadonna, Bloomberg Intelligence economist:<blockquote>强于预期的就业报告使得美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）更有可能在本月晚些时候的杰克逊霍尔研讨会上 “暗示”美联储可能准备在未来几个月开始缩减规模。该数据对美元兑日元和欧元等低收益货币有利。尽管如此，美元的前景“不一定会损害风险环境……除非美国 10 年期国债收益率大幅飙升，否则高收益新兴市场货币应该会在下跌时看到需求”。彭博情报经济学家卡尔·里卡多纳：</blockquote> The jobs report is “sturdy, but not as strong as it looks.” In addition to the modest fade in the pace of private-sector hiring (703,000 in July vs. 769,000 in June), much of the July gain occurred in the tenuous leisure and hospitality sector -- and that could easily reverse due to Covid-19, he said. This already appears to be evident in metrics such as OpenTable bookings. “So if we look at private-sector hiring outside of leisure and hospitality, today’s reported gain was 323,000, a bit slower than the prior month’s 375,000. This tells us that underlying economic momentum is steady-state, not accelerating.” Neil Dutta, economist at Renaissance Macro:<blockquote>就业报告 “稳健，但并不像看起来那么强劲”。他说，除了私营部门招聘速度略有放缓（7 月份为 703,000 人，6 月份为 769,000 人）之外，7 月份的大部分增长都发生在脆弱的休闲和酒店业，而且由于 Covid-19，这种情况很容易逆转。这在OpenTable预订等指标中似乎已经很明显了。“因此，如果我们看看休闲和酒店业以外的私营部门招聘情况，今天报告的增幅为 32.3 万人，略低于上月的 37.5 万人。这告诉我们，潜在的经济动能是稳定的，而不是加速的。”Neil Dutta，Renaissance Macro 经济学家:</blockquote> The FOMC could upgrade its language in the September statement to say that the economy is “on track for substantial further progress,” which would lead to a declaration of achievement of substantial further progress in “November at the earliest.”&nbsp; Tapering, in that event, could begin as early as December. JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade:<blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会可能会在 9 月份的声明中升级措辞，称经济 “有望取得实质性进一步进展”，这将导致 “最早在 11 月 ”宣布取得实质性进一步进展。在这种情况下，缩减规模最早可能在 12 月开始。德美利证券首席市场策略师 JJ Kinahan：</blockquote> “It’s a great number, there’s no way around that, it really is an impressive number. But I think if we didn’t have this new delta variant coming up, the conversation we’d be having is, is this inflationary, does this mean we’ll go into a taper, etc. But because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.” Roberto Perli, head of global policy research at Cornerstone Macro:<blockquote>“这是一个很棒的数字，这是无法回避的，这真的是一个令人印象深刻的数字。但我认为，如果我们没有新的德尔塔变异毒株，我们会讨论的话题是，这是否会导致通货膨胀，这是否意味着我们将进入缩减通货膨胀等等。但由于德尔塔变异毒株，在我们对此有更多了解之前，我认为它会给我们带来不同的压力，我们会说，好吧，现在我们处于观望模式。很高兴看到就业和经济都在发展--希望在下一份就业报告中，我们就能知道经济能否继续以这样的速度发展。现在看来会的。”Cornerstone Macro 全球政策研究主管 Roberto Perli：</blockquote> “The Fed will have one more employment report before the September meeting. Assuming it will be good as well, a plausible base case is for the FOMC to say at the September meeting that the labor market continued to make good progress, and if the progress continues at the recent pace the committee will be in a position to start tapering its asset purchases over the next few months.&nbsp; That would put the onset of tapering in late December or early January.“So bottom line I think the timeline remains the same.&nbsp; It would be hard to start tapering in September because it would go against both the ‘coming meetings’ (plural) language in the July statement and the notion that the FOMC would provide ample notice before actually starting tapering.” <blockquote>“美联储将在9月会议前再发布一份就业报告。假设情况也不错，那么一个合理的基本情况是，联邦公开市场委员会在 9 月份的会议上表示，劳动力市场继续取得良好进展，如果进展继续以最近的速度进行，委员会将能够在未来几个月内开始缩减资产购买规模。这将使缩减资产购买规模的开始时间在 12 月底或 1 月初。“因此，我认为时间表保持不变。9 月份开始缩减资产规模很难，因为这既违背了 7 月份声明中'即将召开会议'（复数）的措辞，也违背了联邦公开市场委员会在实际开始缩减资产规模之前会提供充分通知的理念。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/enough-tapering-start-wall-street-reacts-blockbuster-jobs-report\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/enough-tapering-start-wall-street-reacts-blockbuster-jobs-report","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1145298738","content_text":"With the jobs report coming in at just shy of 1 million jobs on the establishment survey (and just over 1 million on the Household survey), with strong job creation, a big drop in unemployment rate, higher employment-to-population, rising wages and hours worked, and favorable revisions, consensus - at least judging by the market reaction - is that we have entered the \"substantial progress\" phase, greenlighting a tapering signal by the Fed at the end of the month during the Jackson Hole symposium.\nAnd yet there is one potential hurdle: the Delta surge and ensuing restrictions and/or lockdowns: as TD Ameritrade's JJ Kinahan says, \"because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.”\nDo others agree? Below we have excerpted some analyst and strategist reactions to today's report.\nKatherine Judge, CIBC Capital Markets:\n\n“With many states set to see the unemployment benefit top-ups expire in early September, healthy job gains should continue ahead, in line with elevated job openings. This print should be enough to allow the Fed to announce an early 2022 tapering of QE at the September meeting.”\n\nChris Turner, head of foreign exchange strategy at ING Bank:\n\nThe stronger-than-expected jobs report makes it more likely that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell may “drop heavy hints” at the Jackson Hole Symposium later this month, that the central bank may prepare to start tapering over subsequent months. The data is positive for the dollar versus the low-yielders such as the yen and euro. Still, the outlook for the greenback “should not necessarily damage the risk environment....Unless U.S. 10 year yields spike aggressively, high yield EM currencies should see demand on dips”\n\nCarl Riccadonna, Bloomberg Intelligence economist:\n\nThe jobs report is “sturdy, but not as strong as it looks.” In addition to the modest fade in the pace of private-sector hiring (703,000 in July vs. 769,000 in June), much of the July gain occurred in the tenuous leisure and hospitality sector -- and that could easily reverse due to Covid-19, he said. This already appears to be evident in metrics such as OpenTable bookings. “So if we look at private-sector hiring outside of leisure and hospitality, today’s reported gain was 323,000, a bit slower than the prior month’s 375,000.\nThis tells us that underlying economic momentum is steady-state, not accelerating.”\n\nNeil Dutta, economist at Renaissance Macro:\n\nThe FOMC could upgrade its language in the September statement to say that the economy is “on track for substantial further progress,” which would lead to a declaration of achievement of substantial further progress in “November at the earliest.”  Tapering, in that event, could begin as early as December.\n\nJJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade:\n\n“It’s a great number, there’s no way around that, it really is an impressive number. But I think if we didn’t have this new delta variant coming up, the conversation we’d be having is, is this inflationary, does this mean we’ll go into a taper, etc. But because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.”\n\nRoberto Perli, head of global policy research at Cornerstone Macro:\n\n“The Fed will have one more employment report before the September meeting. Assuming it will be good as well, a plausible base case is for the FOMC to say at the September meeting that the labor market continued to make good progress, and if the progress continues at the recent pace the committee will be in a position to start tapering its asset purchases over the next few months.  That would put the onset of tapering in late December or early January.“So bottom line I think the timeline remains the same.  It would be hard to start tapering in September because it would go against both the ‘coming meetings’ (plural) language in the July statement and the notion that the FOMC would provide ample notice before actually starting tapering.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5454523,"gmtCreate":1628316139785,"gmtModify":1635157801489,"authorId":3569655834816623,"author":{"id":3569655834816623,"idStr":"3569655834816623","authorId":3569655834816623,"name":"CCKK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6aea8804777ae257ed50c99419ad048","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":891044073,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"👍🏻","text":"👍🏻","html":"👍🏻"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":891045160,"gmtCreate":1628310898150,"gmtModify":1633751729470,"author":{"id":"3585352116267703","authorId":"3585352116267703","name":"ac1887","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4f5865f79452e7da123e88ff35959e5","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3585352116267703","idStr":"3585352116267703"},"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/891045160","repostId":1145298738,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1145298738","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628259150,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1145298738?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-06 22:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"\"Enough For Tapering To Start\": Wall Street Reacts To A Blockbuster Jobs Report<blockquote>“足以开始缩减规模”：华尔街对重磅就业报告的反应</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1145298738","media":"zerohedge","summary":"With the jobs report coming in at just shy of 1 million jobs on the establishment survey (and just o","content":"With the jobs report coming in at just shy of 1 million jobs on the establishment survey (and just over 1 million on the Household survey), with strong job creation, a big drop in unemployment rate, higher employment-to-population, rising wages and hours worked, and favorable revisions, consensus - at least judging by the market reaction - is that we have entered the \"substantial progress\" phase, greenlighting a tapering signal by the Fed at the end of the month during the Jackson Hole symposium.<blockquote>就业报告显示，企业调查中的就业岗位略低于 100 万个（家庭调查中的就业岗位略高于 100 万个），就业创造强劲，失业率大幅下降，就业人口比率上升，工资和工作时间上涨，以及有利的修正，至少从市场反应来看，共识是我们已经进入了“实质性进展”阶段，为美联储在本月底杰克逊霍尔研讨会期间发出的缩减规模信号开了绿灯。</blockquote> And yet there is one potential hurdle: the Delta surge and ensuing restrictions and/or lockdowns: as TD Ameritrade's JJ Kinahan says, \"because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.”<blockquote>然而，还有一个潜在的障碍：三角洲的激增以及随之而来的限制和/或封锁： 正如德美利证券（TD Ameritrade）的 JJ Kinahan 所说：“由于德尔塔变异毒株，在我们对此有更多了解之前，我认为它会给我们带来不同的压力，我们会说，好吧，现在我们处于观望模式。很高兴看到就业岗位和经济都在增长--希望在下一份就业报告中，我们就能知道经济能否继续以这样的速度增长。现在看来会的。”</blockquote> Do others agree? Below we have excerpted some analyst and strategist reactions to today's report.<blockquote>其他人同意吗？下面我们摘录了一些分析师和策略师对今天报告的反应。</blockquote> Katherine Judge, CIBC Capital Markets:<blockquote>CIBC 资本市场 Katherine Judge：</blockquote> “With many states set to see the unemployment benefit top-ups expire in early September, healthy job gains should continue ahead, in line with elevated job openings. This print should be enough to allow the Fed to announce an early 2022 tapering of QE at the September meeting.” Chris Turner, head of foreign exchange strategy at ING Bank:<blockquote>“由于许多州的失业救济金补贴将于 9 月初到期，健康的就业增长应与职位空缺的增加保持一致。这一数字应足以让美联储在 9 月份的会议上宣布在 2022 年初缩减量化宽松政策。”荷兰国际集团银行外汇策略主管克里斯·特纳：</blockquote> The stronger-than-expected jobs report makes it more likely that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell may “drop heavy hints” at the Jackson Hole Symposium later this month, that the central bank may prepare to start tapering over subsequent months. The data is positive for the dollar versus the low-yielders such as the yen and euro. Still, the outlook for the greenback “should not necessarily damage the risk environment....Unless U.S. 10 year yields spike aggressively, high yield EM currencies should see demand on dips” Carl Riccadonna, Bloomberg Intelligence economist:<blockquote>强于预期的就业报告使得美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）更有可能在本月晚些时候的杰克逊霍尔研讨会上 “暗示”美联储可能准备在未来几个月开始缩减规模。该数据对美元兑日元和欧元等低收益货币有利。尽管如此，美元的前景“不一定会损害风险环境……除非美国 10 年期国债收益率大幅飙升，否则高收益新兴市场货币应该会在下跌时看到需求”。彭博情报经济学家卡尔·里卡多纳：</blockquote> The jobs report is “sturdy, but not as strong as it looks.” In addition to the modest fade in the pace of private-sector hiring (703,000 in July vs. 769,000 in June), much of the July gain occurred in the tenuous leisure and hospitality sector -- and that could easily reverse due to Covid-19, he said. This already appears to be evident in metrics such as OpenTable bookings. “So if we look at private-sector hiring outside of leisure and hospitality, today’s reported gain was 323,000, a bit slower than the prior month’s 375,000. This tells us that underlying economic momentum is steady-state, not accelerating.” Neil Dutta, economist at Renaissance Macro:<blockquote>就业报告 “稳健，但并不像看起来那么强劲”。他说，除了私营部门招聘速度略有放缓（7 月份为 703,000 人，6 月份为 769,000 人）之外，7 月份的大部分增长都发生在脆弱的休闲和酒店业，而且由于 Covid-19，这种情况很容易逆转。这在OpenTable预订等指标中似乎已经很明显了。“因此，如果我们看看休闲和酒店业以外的私营部门招聘情况，今天报告的增幅为 32.3 万人，略低于上月的 37.5 万人。这告诉我们，潜在的经济动能是稳定的，而不是加速的。”Neil Dutta，Renaissance Macro 经济学家:</blockquote> The FOMC could upgrade its language in the September statement to say that the economy is “on track for substantial further progress,” which would lead to a declaration of achievement of substantial further progress in “November at the earliest.”&nbsp; Tapering, in that event, could begin as early as December. JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade:<blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会可能会在 9 月份的声明中升级措辞，称经济 “有望取得实质性进一步进展”，这将导致 “最早在 11 月 ”宣布取得实质性进一步进展。在这种情况下，缩减规模最早可能在 12 月开始。德美利证券首席市场策略师 JJ Kinahan：</blockquote> “It’s a great number, there’s no way around that, it really is an impressive number. But I think if we didn’t have this new delta variant coming up, the conversation we’d be having is, is this inflationary, does this mean we’ll go into a taper, etc. But because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.” Roberto Perli, head of global policy research at Cornerstone Macro:<blockquote>“这是一个很棒的数字，这是无法回避的，这真的是一个令人印象深刻的数字。但我认为，如果我们没有新的德尔塔变异毒株，我们会讨论的话题是，这是否会导致通货膨胀，这是否意味着我们将进入缩减通货膨胀等等。但由于德尔塔变异毒株，在我们对此有更多了解之前，我认为它会给我们带来不同的压力，我们会说，好吧，现在我们处于观望模式。很高兴看到就业和经济都在发展--希望在下一份就业报告中，我们就能知道经济能否继续以这样的速度发展。现在看来会的。”Cornerstone Macro 全球政策研究主管 Roberto Perli：</blockquote> “The Fed will have one more employment report before the September meeting. Assuming it will be good as well, a plausible base case is for the FOMC to say at the September meeting that the labor market continued to make good progress, and if the progress continues at the recent pace the committee will be in a position to start tapering its asset purchases over the next few months.&nbsp; That would put the onset of tapering in late December or early January.“So bottom line I think the timeline remains the same.&nbsp; It would be hard to start tapering in September because it would go against both the ‘coming meetings’ (plural) language in the July statement and the notion that the FOMC would provide ample notice before actually starting tapering.” <blockquote>“美联储将在9月会议前再发布一份就业报告。假设情况也不错，那么一个合理的基本情况是，联邦公开市场委员会在 9 月份的会议上表示，劳动力市场继续取得良好进展，如果进展继续以最近的速度进行，委员会将能够在未来几个月内开始缩减资产购买规模。这将使缩减资产购买规模的开始时间在 12 月底或 1 月初。“因此，我认为时间表保持不变。9 月份开始缩减资产规模很难，因为这既违背了 7 月份声明中'即将召开会议'（复数）的措辞，也违背了联邦公开市场委员会在实际开始缩减资产规模之前会提供充分通知的理念。”</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.”<blockquote>然而，还有一个潜在的障碍：三角洲的激增以及随之而来的限制和/或封锁： 正如德美利证券（TD Ameritrade）的 JJ Kinahan 所说：“由于德尔塔变异毒株，在我们对此有更多了解之前，我认为它会给我们带来不同的压力，我们会说，好吧，现在我们处于观望模式。很高兴看到就业岗位和经济都在增长--希望在下一份就业报告中，我们就能知道经济能否继续以这样的速度增长。现在看来会的。”</blockquote> Do others agree? Below we have excerpted some analyst and strategist reactions to today's report.<blockquote>其他人同意吗？下面我们摘录了一些分析师和策略师对今天报告的反应。</blockquote> Katherine Judge, CIBC Capital Markets:<blockquote>CIBC 资本市场 Katherine Judge：</blockquote> “With many states set to see the unemployment benefit top-ups expire in early September, healthy job gains should continue ahead, in line with elevated job openings. This print should be enough to allow the Fed to announce an early 2022 tapering of QE at the September meeting.” Chris Turner, head of foreign exchange strategy at ING Bank:<blockquote>“由于许多州的失业救济金补贴将于 9 月初到期，健康的就业增长应与职位空缺的增加保持一致。这一数字应足以让美联储在 9 月份的会议上宣布在 2022 年初缩减量化宽松政策。”荷兰国际集团银行外汇策略主管克里斯·特纳：</blockquote> The stronger-than-expected jobs report makes it more likely that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell may “drop heavy hints” at the Jackson Hole Symposium later this month, that the central bank may prepare to start tapering over subsequent months. The data is positive for the dollar versus the low-yielders such as the yen and euro. Still, the outlook for the greenback “should not necessarily damage the risk environment....Unless U.S. 10 year yields spike aggressively, high yield EM currencies should see demand on dips” Carl Riccadonna, Bloomberg Intelligence economist:<blockquote>强于预期的就业报告使得美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）更有可能在本月晚些时候的杰克逊霍尔研讨会上 “暗示”美联储可能准备在未来几个月开始缩减规模。该数据对美元兑日元和欧元等低收益货币有利。尽管如此，美元的前景“不一定会损害风险环境……除非美国 10 年期国债收益率大幅飙升，否则高收益新兴市场货币应该会在下跌时看到需求”。彭博情报经济学家卡尔·里卡多纳：</blockquote> The jobs report is “sturdy, but not as strong as it looks.” In addition to the modest fade in the pace of private-sector hiring (703,000 in July vs. 769,000 in June), much of the July gain occurred in the tenuous leisure and hospitality sector -- and that could easily reverse due to Covid-19, he said. This already appears to be evident in metrics such as OpenTable bookings. “So if we look at private-sector hiring outside of leisure and hospitality, today’s reported gain was 323,000, a bit slower than the prior month’s 375,000. This tells us that underlying economic momentum is steady-state, not accelerating.” Neil Dutta, economist at Renaissance Macro:<blockquote>就业报告 “稳健，但并不像看起来那么强劲”。他说，除了私营部门招聘速度略有放缓（7 月份为 703,000 人，6 月份为 769,000 人）之外，7 月份的大部分增长都发生在脆弱的休闲和酒店业，而且由于 Covid-19，这种情况很容易逆转。这在OpenTable预订等指标中似乎已经很明显了。“因此，如果我们看看休闲和酒店业以外的私营部门招聘情况，今天报告的增幅为 32.3 万人，略低于上月的 37.5 万人。这告诉我们，潜在的经济动能是稳定的，而不是加速的。”Neil Dutta，Renaissance Macro 经济学家:</blockquote> The FOMC could upgrade its language in the September statement to say that the economy is “on track for substantial further progress,” which would lead to a declaration of achievement of substantial further progress in “November at the earliest.”&nbsp; Tapering, in that event, could begin as early as December. JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade:<blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会可能会在 9 月份的声明中升级措辞，称经济 “有望取得实质性进一步进展”，这将导致 “最早在 11 月 ”宣布取得实质性进一步进展。在这种情况下，缩减规模最早可能在 12 月开始。德美利证券首席市场策略师 JJ Kinahan：</blockquote> “It’s a great number, there’s no way around that, it really is an impressive number. But I think if we didn’t have this new delta variant coming up, the conversation we’d be having is, is this inflationary, does this mean we’ll go into a taper, etc. But because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.” Roberto Perli, head of global policy research at Cornerstone Macro:<blockquote>“这是一个很棒的数字，这是无法回避的，这真的是一个令人印象深刻的数字。但我认为，如果我们没有新的德尔塔变异毒株，我们会讨论的话题是，这是否会导致通货膨胀，这是否意味着我们将进入缩减通货膨胀等等。但由于德尔塔变异毒株，在我们对此有更多了解之前，我认为它会给我们带来不同的压力，我们会说，好吧，现在我们处于观望模式。很高兴看到就业和经济都在发展--希望在下一份就业报告中，我们就能知道经济能否继续以这样的速度发展。现在看来会的。”Cornerstone Macro 全球政策研究主管 Roberto Perli：</blockquote> “The Fed will have one more employment report before the September meeting. Assuming it will be good as well, a plausible base case is for the FOMC to say at the September meeting that the labor market continued to make good progress, and if the progress continues at the recent pace the committee will be in a position to start tapering its asset purchases over the next few months.&nbsp; That would put the onset of tapering in late December or early January.“So bottom line I think the timeline remains the same.&nbsp; It would be hard to start tapering in September because it would go against both the ‘coming meetings’ (plural) language in the July statement and the notion that the FOMC would provide ample notice before actually starting tapering.” <blockquote>“美联储将在9月会议前再发布一份就业报告。假设情况也不错，那么一个合理的基本情况是，联邦公开市场委员会在 9 月份的会议上表示，劳动力市场继续取得良好进展，如果进展继续以最近的速度进行，委员会将能够在未来几个月内开始缩减资产购买规模。这将使缩减资产购买规模的开始时间在 12 月底或 1 月初。“因此，我认为时间表保持不变。9 月份开始缩减资产规模很难，因为这既违背了 7 月份声明中'即将召开会议'（复数）的措辞，也违背了联邦公开市场委员会在实际开始缩减资产规模之前会提供充分通知的理念。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/enough-tapering-start-wall-street-reacts-blockbuster-jobs-report\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/enough-tapering-start-wall-street-reacts-blockbuster-jobs-report","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1145298738","content_text":"With the jobs report coming in at just shy of 1 million jobs on the establishment survey (and just over 1 million on the Household survey), with strong job creation, a big drop in unemployment rate, higher employment-to-population, rising wages and hours worked, and favorable revisions, consensus - at least judging by the market reaction - is that we have entered the \"substantial progress\" phase, greenlighting a tapering signal by the Fed at the end of the month during the Jackson Hole symposium.\nAnd yet there is one potential hurdle: the Delta surge and ensuing restrictions and/or lockdowns: as TD Ameritrade's JJ Kinahan says, \"because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.”\nDo others agree? Below we have excerpted some analyst and strategist reactions to today's report.\nKatherine Judge, CIBC Capital Markets:\n\n“With many states set to see the unemployment benefit top-ups expire in early September, healthy job gains should continue ahead, in line with elevated job openings. This print should be enough to allow the Fed to announce an early 2022 tapering of QE at the September meeting.”\n\nChris Turner, head of foreign exchange strategy at ING Bank:\n\nThe stronger-than-expected jobs report makes it more likely that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell may “drop heavy hints” at the Jackson Hole Symposium later this month, that the central bank may prepare to start tapering over subsequent months. The data is positive for the dollar versus the low-yielders such as the yen and euro. Still, the outlook for the greenback “should not necessarily damage the risk environment....Unless U.S. 10 year yields spike aggressively, high yield EM currencies should see demand on dips”\n\nCarl Riccadonna, Bloomberg Intelligence economist:\n\nThe jobs report is “sturdy, but not as strong as it looks.” In addition to the modest fade in the pace of private-sector hiring (703,000 in July vs. 769,000 in June), much of the July gain occurred in the tenuous leisure and hospitality sector -- and that could easily reverse due to Covid-19, he said. This already appears to be evident in metrics such as OpenTable bookings. “So if we look at private-sector hiring outside of leisure and hospitality, today’s reported gain was 323,000, a bit slower than the prior month’s 375,000.\nThis tells us that underlying economic momentum is steady-state, not accelerating.”\n\nNeil Dutta, economist at Renaissance Macro:\n\nThe FOMC could upgrade its language in the September statement to say that the economy is “on track for substantial further progress,” which would lead to a declaration of achievement of substantial further progress in “November at the earliest.”  Tapering, in that event, could begin as early as December.\n\nJJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade:\n\n“It’s a great number, there’s no way around that, it really is an impressive number. But I think if we didn’t have this new delta variant coming up, the conversation we’d be having is, is this inflationary, does this mean we’ll go into a taper, etc. But because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.”\n\nRoberto Perli, head of global policy research at Cornerstone Macro:\n\n“The Fed will have one more employment report before the September meeting. Assuming it will be good as well, a plausible base case is for the FOMC to say at the September meeting that the labor market continued to make good progress, and if the progress continues at the recent pace the committee will be in a position to start tapering its asset purchases over the next few months.  That would put the onset of tapering in late December or early January.“So bottom line I think the timeline remains the same.  It would be hard to start tapering in September because it would go against both the ‘coming meetings’ (plural) language in the July statement and the notion that the FOMC would provide ample notice before actually starting tapering.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5454577,"gmtCreate":1628316490878,"gmtModify":1635157795842,"authorId":3567209681027469,"author":{"id":3567209681027469,"idStr":"3567209681027469","authorId":3567209681027469,"name":"CHOOTC","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a825ae81d7f171dbbad58815b5ddda79","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":891045160,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"like","text":"like","html":"like"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":891045998,"gmtCreate":1628310881914,"gmtModify":1633751729713,"author":{"id":"3573788625955643","authorId":"3573788625955643","name":"Alvin1975","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/beba0668af2d109b87221754e75935b3","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3573788625955643","idStr":"3573788625955643"},"htmlText":"Like and comment pls","listText":"Like and comment pls","text":"Like and comment pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/891045998","repostId":1145298738,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1145298738","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628259150,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1145298738?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-06 22:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"\"Enough For Tapering To Start\": Wall Street Reacts To A Blockbuster Jobs Report<blockquote>“足以开始缩减规模”：华尔街对重磅就业报告的反应</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1145298738","media":"zerohedge","summary":"With the jobs report coming in at just shy of 1 million jobs on the establishment survey (and just o","content":"With the jobs report coming in at just shy of 1 million jobs on the establishment survey (and just over 1 million on the Household survey), with strong job creation, a big drop in unemployment rate, higher employment-to-population, rising wages and hours worked, and favorable revisions, consensus - at least judging by the market reaction - is that we have entered the \"substantial progress\" phase, greenlighting a tapering signal by the Fed at the end of the month during the Jackson Hole symposium.<blockquote>就业报告显示，企业调查中的就业岗位略低于 100 万个（家庭调查中的就业岗位略高于 100 万个），就业创造强劲，失业率大幅下降，就业人口比率上升，工资和工作时间上涨，以及有利的修正，至少从市场反应来看，共识是我们已经进入了“实质性进展”阶段，为美联储在本月底杰克逊霍尔研讨会期间发出的缩减规模信号开了绿灯。</blockquote> And yet there is one potential hurdle: the Delta surge and ensuing restrictions and/or lockdowns: as TD Ameritrade's JJ Kinahan says, \"because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.”<blockquote>然而，还有一个潜在的障碍：三角洲的激增以及随之而来的限制和/或封锁： 正如德美利证券（TD Ameritrade）的 JJ Kinahan 所说：“由于德尔塔变异毒株，在我们对此有更多了解之前，我认为它会给我们带来不同的压力，我们会说，好吧，现在我们处于观望模式。很高兴看到就业岗位和经济都在增长--希望在下一份就业报告中，我们就能知道经济能否继续以这样的速度增长。现在看来会的。”</blockquote> Do others agree? Below we have excerpted some analyst and strategist reactions to today's report.<blockquote>其他人同意吗？下面我们摘录了一些分析师和策略师对今天报告的反应。</blockquote> Katherine Judge, CIBC Capital Markets:<blockquote>CIBC 资本市场 Katherine Judge：</blockquote> “With many states set to see the unemployment benefit top-ups expire in early September, healthy job gains should continue ahead, in line with elevated job openings. This print should be enough to allow the Fed to announce an early 2022 tapering of QE at the September meeting.” Chris Turner, head of foreign exchange strategy at ING Bank:<blockquote>“由于许多州的失业救济金补贴将于 9 月初到期，健康的就业增长应与职位空缺的增加保持一致。这一数字应足以让美联储在 9 月份的会议上宣布在 2022 年初缩减量化宽松政策。”荷兰国际集团银行外汇策略主管克里斯·特纳：</blockquote> The stronger-than-expected jobs report makes it more likely that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell may “drop heavy hints” at the Jackson Hole Symposium later this month, that the central bank may prepare to start tapering over subsequent months. The data is positive for the dollar versus the low-yielders such as the yen and euro. Still, the outlook for the greenback “should not necessarily damage the risk environment....Unless U.S. 10 year yields spike aggressively, high yield EM currencies should see demand on dips” Carl Riccadonna, Bloomberg Intelligence economist:<blockquote>强于预期的就业报告使得美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）更有可能在本月晚些时候的杰克逊霍尔研讨会上 “暗示”美联储可能准备在未来几个月开始缩减规模。该数据对美元兑日元和欧元等低收益货币有利。尽管如此，美元的前景“不一定会损害风险环境……除非美国 10 年期国债收益率大幅飙升，否则高收益新兴市场货币应该会在下跌时看到需求”。彭博情报经济学家卡尔·里卡多纳：</blockquote> The jobs report is “sturdy, but not as strong as it looks.” In addition to the modest fade in the pace of private-sector hiring (703,000 in July vs. 769,000 in June), much of the July gain occurred in the tenuous leisure and hospitality sector -- and that could easily reverse due to Covid-19, he said. This already appears to be evident in metrics such as OpenTable bookings. “So if we look at private-sector hiring outside of leisure and hospitality, today’s reported gain was 323,000, a bit slower than the prior month’s 375,000. This tells us that underlying economic momentum is steady-state, not accelerating.” Neil Dutta, economist at Renaissance Macro:<blockquote>就业报告 “稳健，但并不像看起来那么强劲”。他说，除了私营部门招聘速度略有放缓（7 月份为 703,000 人，6 月份为 769,000 人）之外，7 月份的大部分增长都发生在脆弱的休闲和酒店业，而且由于 Covid-19，这种情况很容易逆转。这在OpenTable预订等指标中似乎已经很明显了。“因此，如果我们看看休闲和酒店业以外的私营部门招聘情况，今天报告的增幅为 32.3 万人，略低于上月的 37.5 万人。这告诉我们，潜在的经济动能是稳定的，而不是加速的。”Neil Dutta，Renaissance Macro 经济学家:</blockquote> The FOMC could upgrade its language in the September statement to say that the economy is “on track for substantial further progress,” which would lead to a declaration of achievement of substantial further progress in “November at the earliest.”&nbsp; Tapering, in that event, could begin as early as December. JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade:<blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会可能会在 9 月份的声明中升级措辞，称经济 “有望取得实质性进一步进展”，这将导致 “最早在 11 月 ”宣布取得实质性进一步进展。在这种情况下，缩减规模最早可能在 12 月开始。德美利证券首席市场策略师 JJ Kinahan：</blockquote> “It’s a great number, there’s no way around that, it really is an impressive number. But I think if we didn’t have this new delta variant coming up, the conversation we’d be having is, is this inflationary, does this mean we’ll go into a taper, etc. But because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.” Roberto Perli, head of global policy research at Cornerstone Macro:<blockquote>“这是一个很棒的数字，这是无法回避的，这真的是一个令人印象深刻的数字。但我认为，如果我们没有新的德尔塔变异毒株，我们会讨论的话题是，这是否会导致通货膨胀，这是否意味着我们将进入缩减通货膨胀等等。但由于德尔塔变异毒株，在我们对此有更多了解之前，我认为它会给我们带来不同的压力，我们会说，好吧，现在我们处于观望模式。很高兴看到就业和经济都在发展--希望在下一份就业报告中，我们就能知道经济能否继续以这样的速度发展。现在看来会的。”Cornerstone Macro 全球政策研究主管 Roberto Perli：</blockquote> “The Fed will have one more employment report before the September meeting. Assuming it will be good as well, a plausible base case is for the FOMC to say at the September meeting that the labor market continued to make good progress, and if the progress continues at the recent pace the committee will be in a position to start tapering its asset purchases over the next few months.&nbsp; That would put the onset of tapering in late December or early January.“So bottom line I think the timeline remains the same.&nbsp; It would be hard to start tapering in September because it would go against both the ‘coming meetings’ (plural) language in the July statement and the notion that the FOMC would provide ample notice before actually starting tapering.” <blockquote>“美联储将在9月会议前再发布一份就业报告。假设情况也不错，那么一个合理的基本情况是，联邦公开市场委员会在 9 月份的会议上表示，劳动力市场继续取得良好进展，如果进展继续以最近的速度进行，委员会将能够在未来几个月内开始缩减资产购买规模。这将使缩减资产购买规模的开始时间在 12 月底或 1 月初。“因此，我认为时间表保持不变。9 月份开始缩减资产规模很难，因为这既违背了 7 月份声明中'即将召开会议'（复数）的措辞，也违背了联邦公开市场委员会在实际开始缩减资产规模之前会提供充分通知的理念。”</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.”<blockquote>然而，还有一个潜在的障碍：三角洲的激增以及随之而来的限制和/或封锁： 正如德美利证券（TD Ameritrade）的 JJ Kinahan 所说：“由于德尔塔变异毒株，在我们对此有更多了解之前，我认为它会给我们带来不同的压力，我们会说，好吧，现在我们处于观望模式。很高兴看到就业岗位和经济都在增长--希望在下一份就业报告中，我们就能知道经济能否继续以这样的速度增长。现在看来会的。”</blockquote> Do others agree? Below we have excerpted some analyst and strategist reactions to today's report.<blockquote>其他人同意吗？下面我们摘录了一些分析师和策略师对今天报告的反应。</blockquote> Katherine Judge, CIBC Capital Markets:<blockquote>CIBC 资本市场 Katherine Judge：</blockquote> “With many states set to see the unemployment benefit top-ups expire in early September, healthy job gains should continue ahead, in line with elevated job openings. This print should be enough to allow the Fed to announce an early 2022 tapering of QE at the September meeting.” Chris Turner, head of foreign exchange strategy at ING Bank:<blockquote>“由于许多州的失业救济金补贴将于 9 月初到期，健康的就业增长应与职位空缺的增加保持一致。这一数字应足以让美联储在 9 月份的会议上宣布在 2022 年初缩减量化宽松政策。”荷兰国际集团银行外汇策略主管克里斯·特纳：</blockquote> The stronger-than-expected jobs report makes it more likely that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell may “drop heavy hints” at the Jackson Hole Symposium later this month, that the central bank may prepare to start tapering over subsequent months. The data is positive for the dollar versus the low-yielders such as the yen and euro. Still, the outlook for the greenback “should not necessarily damage the risk environment....Unless U.S. 10 year yields spike aggressively, high yield EM currencies should see demand on dips” Carl Riccadonna, Bloomberg Intelligence economist:<blockquote>强于预期的就业报告使得美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）更有可能在本月晚些时候的杰克逊霍尔研讨会上 “暗示”美联储可能准备在未来几个月开始缩减规模。该数据对美元兑日元和欧元等低收益货币有利。尽管如此，美元的前景“不一定会损害风险环境……除非美国 10 年期国债收益率大幅飙升，否则高收益新兴市场货币应该会在下跌时看到需求”。彭博情报经济学家卡尔·里卡多纳：</blockquote> The jobs report is “sturdy, but not as strong as it looks.” In addition to the modest fade in the pace of private-sector hiring (703,000 in July vs. 769,000 in June), much of the July gain occurred in the tenuous leisure and hospitality sector -- and that could easily reverse due to Covid-19, he said. This already appears to be evident in metrics such as OpenTable bookings. “So if we look at private-sector hiring outside of leisure and hospitality, today’s reported gain was 323,000, a bit slower than the prior month’s 375,000. This tells us that underlying economic momentum is steady-state, not accelerating.” Neil Dutta, economist at Renaissance Macro:<blockquote>就业报告 “稳健，但并不像看起来那么强劲”。他说，除了私营部门招聘速度略有放缓（7 月份为 703,000 人，6 月份为 769,000 人）之外，7 月份的大部分增长都发生在脆弱的休闲和酒店业，而且由于 Covid-19，这种情况很容易逆转。这在OpenTable预订等指标中似乎已经很明显了。“因此，如果我们看看休闲和酒店业以外的私营部门招聘情况，今天报告的增幅为 32.3 万人，略低于上月的 37.5 万人。这告诉我们，潜在的经济动能是稳定的，而不是加速的。”Neil Dutta，Renaissance Macro 经济学家:</blockquote> The FOMC could upgrade its language in the September statement to say that the economy is “on track for substantial further progress,” which would lead to a declaration of achievement of substantial further progress in “November at the earliest.”&nbsp; Tapering, in that event, could begin as early as December. JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade:<blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会可能会在 9 月份的声明中升级措辞，称经济 “有望取得实质性进一步进展”，这将导致 “最早在 11 月 ”宣布取得实质性进一步进展。在这种情况下，缩减规模最早可能在 12 月开始。德美利证券首席市场策略师 JJ Kinahan：</blockquote> “It’s a great number, there’s no way around that, it really is an impressive number. But I think if we didn’t have this new delta variant coming up, the conversation we’d be having is, is this inflationary, does this mean we’ll go into a taper, etc. But because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.” Roberto Perli, head of global policy research at Cornerstone Macro:<blockquote>“这是一个很棒的数字，这是无法回避的，这真的是一个令人印象深刻的数字。但我认为，如果我们没有新的德尔塔变异毒株，我们会讨论的话题是，这是否会导致通货膨胀，这是否意味着我们将进入缩减通货膨胀等等。但由于德尔塔变异毒株，在我们对此有更多了解之前，我认为它会给我们带来不同的压力，我们会说，好吧，现在我们处于观望模式。很高兴看到就业和经济都在发展--希望在下一份就业报告中，我们就能知道经济能否继续以这样的速度发展。现在看来会的。”Cornerstone Macro 全球政策研究主管 Roberto Perli：</blockquote> “The Fed will have one more employment report before the September meeting. Assuming it will be good as well, a plausible base case is for the FOMC to say at the September meeting that the labor market continued to make good progress, and if the progress continues at the recent pace the committee will be in a position to start tapering its asset purchases over the next few months.&nbsp; That would put the onset of tapering in late December or early January.“So bottom line I think the timeline remains the same.&nbsp; It would be hard to start tapering in September because it would go against both the ‘coming meetings’ (plural) language in the July statement and the notion that the FOMC would provide ample notice before actually starting tapering.” <blockquote>“美联储将在9月会议前再发布一份就业报告。假设情况也不错，那么一个合理的基本情况是，联邦公开市场委员会在 9 月份的会议上表示，劳动力市场继续取得良好进展，如果进展继续以最近的速度进行，委员会将能够在未来几个月内开始缩减资产购买规模。这将使缩减资产购买规模的开始时间在 12 月底或 1 月初。“因此，我认为时间表保持不变。9 月份开始缩减资产规模很难，因为这既违背了 7 月份声明中'即将召开会议'（复数）的措辞，也违背了联邦公开市场委员会在实际开始缩减资产规模之前会提供充分通知的理念。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/enough-tapering-start-wall-street-reacts-blockbuster-jobs-report\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/enough-tapering-start-wall-street-reacts-blockbuster-jobs-report","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1145298738","content_text":"With the jobs report coming in at just shy of 1 million jobs on the establishment survey (and just over 1 million on the Household survey), with strong job creation, a big drop in unemployment rate, higher employment-to-population, rising wages and hours worked, and favorable revisions, consensus - at least judging by the market reaction - is that we have entered the \"substantial progress\" phase, greenlighting a tapering signal by the Fed at the end of the month during the Jackson Hole symposium.\nAnd yet there is one potential hurdle: the Delta surge and ensuing restrictions and/or lockdowns: as TD Ameritrade's JJ Kinahan says, \"because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.”\nDo others agree? Below we have excerpted some analyst and strategist reactions to today's report.\nKatherine Judge, CIBC Capital Markets:\n\n“With many states set to see the unemployment benefit top-ups expire in early September, healthy job gains should continue ahead, in line with elevated job openings. This print should be enough to allow the Fed to announce an early 2022 tapering of QE at the September meeting.”\n\nChris Turner, head of foreign exchange strategy at ING Bank:\n\nThe stronger-than-expected jobs report makes it more likely that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell may “drop heavy hints” at the Jackson Hole Symposium later this month, that the central bank may prepare to start tapering over subsequent months. The data is positive for the dollar versus the low-yielders such as the yen and euro. Still, the outlook for the greenback “should not necessarily damage the risk environment....Unless U.S. 10 year yields spike aggressively, high yield EM currencies should see demand on dips”\n\nCarl Riccadonna, Bloomberg Intelligence economist:\n\nThe jobs report is “sturdy, but not as strong as it looks.” In addition to the modest fade in the pace of private-sector hiring (703,000 in July vs. 769,000 in June), much of the July gain occurred in the tenuous leisure and hospitality sector -- and that could easily reverse due to Covid-19, he said. This already appears to be evident in metrics such as OpenTable bookings. “So if we look at private-sector hiring outside of leisure and hospitality, today’s reported gain was 323,000, a bit slower than the prior month’s 375,000.\nThis tells us that underlying economic momentum is steady-state, not accelerating.”\n\nNeil Dutta, economist at Renaissance Macro:\n\nThe FOMC could upgrade its language in the September statement to say that the economy is “on track for substantial further progress,” which would lead to a declaration of achievement of substantial further progress in “November at the earliest.”  Tapering, in that event, could begin as early as December.\n\nJJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade:\n\n“It’s a great number, there’s no way around that, it really is an impressive number. But I think if we didn’t have this new delta variant coming up, the conversation we’d be having is, is this inflationary, does this mean we’ll go into a taper, etc. But because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.”\n\nRoberto Perli, head of global policy research at Cornerstone Macro:\n\n“The Fed will have one more employment report before the September meeting. Assuming it will be good as well, a plausible base case is for the FOMC to say at the September meeting that the labor market continued to make good progress, and if the progress continues at the recent pace the committee will be in a position to start tapering its asset purchases over the next few months.  That would put the onset of tapering in late December or early January.“So bottom line I think the timeline remains the same.  It would be hard to start tapering in September because it would go against both the ‘coming meetings’ (plural) language in the July statement and the notion that the FOMC would provide ample notice before actually starting tapering.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":891067852,"gmtCreate":1628308912376,"gmtModify":1633751753905,"author":{"id":"3584083942205926","authorId":"3584083942205926","name":"HappyTum","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e17e8fe0f76bab142b7afa480ad9e85b","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3584083942205926","idStr":"3584083942205926"},"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/891067852","repostId":1145298738,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1145298738","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628259150,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1145298738?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-06 22:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"\"Enough For Tapering To Start\": Wall Street Reacts To A Blockbuster Jobs Report<blockquote>“足以开始缩减规模”：华尔街对重磅就业报告的反应</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1145298738","media":"zerohedge","summary":"With the jobs report coming in at just shy of 1 million jobs on the establishment survey (and just o","content":"With the jobs report coming in at just shy of 1 million jobs on the establishment survey (and just over 1 million on the Household survey), with strong job creation, a big drop in unemployment rate, higher employment-to-population, rising wages and hours worked, and favorable revisions, consensus - at least judging by the market reaction - is that we have entered the \"substantial progress\" phase, greenlighting a tapering signal by the Fed at the end of the month during the Jackson Hole symposium.<blockquote>就业报告显示，企业调查中的就业岗位略低于 100 万个（家庭调查中的就业岗位略高于 100 万个），就业创造强劲，失业率大幅下降，就业人口比率上升，工资和工作时间上涨，以及有利的修正，至少从市场反应来看，共识是我们已经进入了“实质性进展”阶段，为美联储在本月底杰克逊霍尔研讨会期间发出的缩减规模信号开了绿灯。</blockquote> And yet there is one potential hurdle: the Delta surge and ensuing restrictions and/or lockdowns: as TD Ameritrade's JJ Kinahan says, \"because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.”<blockquote>然而，还有一个潜在的障碍：三角洲的激增以及随之而来的限制和/或封锁： 正如德美利证券（TD Ameritrade）的 JJ Kinahan 所说：“由于德尔塔变异毒株，在我们对此有更多了解之前，我认为它会给我们带来不同的压力，我们会说，好吧，现在我们处于观望模式。很高兴看到就业岗位和经济都在增长--希望在下一份就业报告中，我们就能知道经济能否继续以这样的速度增长。现在看来会的。”</blockquote> Do others agree? Below we have excerpted some analyst and strategist reactions to today's report.<blockquote>其他人同意吗？下面我们摘录了一些分析师和策略师对今天报告的反应。</blockquote> Katherine Judge, CIBC Capital Markets:<blockquote>CIBC 资本市场 Katherine Judge：</blockquote> “With many states set to see the unemployment benefit top-ups expire in early September, healthy job gains should continue ahead, in line with elevated job openings. This print should be enough to allow the Fed to announce an early 2022 tapering of QE at the September meeting.” Chris Turner, head of foreign exchange strategy at ING Bank:<blockquote>“由于许多州的失业救济金补贴将于 9 月初到期，健康的就业增长应与职位空缺的增加保持一致。这一数字应足以让美联储在 9 月份的会议上宣布在 2022 年初缩减量化宽松政策。”荷兰国际集团银行外汇策略主管克里斯·特纳：</blockquote> The stronger-than-expected jobs report makes it more likely that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell may “drop heavy hints” at the Jackson Hole Symposium later this month, that the central bank may prepare to start tapering over subsequent months. The data is positive for the dollar versus the low-yielders such as the yen and euro. Still, the outlook for the greenback “should not necessarily damage the risk environment....Unless U.S. 10 year yields spike aggressively, high yield EM currencies should see demand on dips” Carl Riccadonna, Bloomberg Intelligence economist:<blockquote>强于预期的就业报告使得美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）更有可能在本月晚些时候的杰克逊霍尔研讨会上 “暗示”美联储可能准备在未来几个月开始缩减规模。该数据对美元兑日元和欧元等低收益货币有利。尽管如此，美元的前景“不一定会损害风险环境……除非美国 10 年期国债收益率大幅飙升，否则高收益新兴市场货币应该会在下跌时看到需求”。彭博情报经济学家卡尔·里卡多纳：</blockquote> The jobs report is “sturdy, but not as strong as it looks.” In addition to the modest fade in the pace of private-sector hiring (703,000 in July vs. 769,000 in June), much of the July gain occurred in the tenuous leisure and hospitality sector -- and that could easily reverse due to Covid-19, he said. This already appears to be evident in metrics such as OpenTable bookings. “So if we look at private-sector hiring outside of leisure and hospitality, today’s reported gain was 323,000, a bit slower than the prior month’s 375,000. This tells us that underlying economic momentum is steady-state, not accelerating.” Neil Dutta, economist at Renaissance Macro:<blockquote>就业报告 “稳健，但并不像看起来那么强劲”。他说，除了私营部门招聘速度略有放缓（7 月份为 703,000 人，6 月份为 769,000 人）之外，7 月份的大部分增长都发生在脆弱的休闲和酒店业，而且由于 Covid-19，这种情况很容易逆转。这在OpenTable预订等指标中似乎已经很明显了。“因此，如果我们看看休闲和酒店业以外的私营部门招聘情况，今天报告的增幅为 32.3 万人，略低于上月的 37.5 万人。这告诉我们，潜在的经济动能是稳定的，而不是加速的。”Neil Dutta，Renaissance Macro 经济学家:</blockquote> The FOMC could upgrade its language in the September statement to say that the economy is “on track for substantial further progress,” which would lead to a declaration of achievement of substantial further progress in “November at the earliest.”&nbsp; Tapering, in that event, could begin as early as December. JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade:<blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会可能会在 9 月份的声明中升级措辞，称经济 “有望取得实质性进一步进展”，这将导致 “最早在 11 月 ”宣布取得实质性进一步进展。在这种情况下，缩减规模最早可能在 12 月开始。德美利证券首席市场策略师 JJ Kinahan：</blockquote> “It’s a great number, there’s no way around that, it really is an impressive number. But I think if we didn’t have this new delta variant coming up, the conversation we’d be having is, is this inflationary, does this mean we’ll go into a taper, etc. But because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.” Roberto Perli, head of global policy research at Cornerstone Macro:<blockquote>“这是一个很棒的数字，这是无法回避的，这真的是一个令人印象深刻的数字。但我认为，如果我们没有新的德尔塔变异毒株，我们会讨论的话题是，这是否会导致通货膨胀，这是否意味着我们将进入缩减通货膨胀等等。但由于德尔塔变异毒株，在我们对此有更多了解之前，我认为它会给我们带来不同的压力，我们会说，好吧，现在我们处于观望模式。很高兴看到就业和经济都在发展--希望在下一份就业报告中，我们就能知道经济能否继续以这样的速度发展。现在看来会的。”Cornerstone Macro 全球政策研究主管 Roberto Perli：</blockquote> “The Fed will have one more employment report before the September meeting. Assuming it will be good as well, a plausible base case is for the FOMC to say at the September meeting that the labor market continued to make good progress, and if the progress continues at the recent pace the committee will be in a position to start tapering its asset purchases over the next few months.&nbsp; That would put the onset of tapering in late December or early January.“So bottom line I think the timeline remains the same.&nbsp; It would be hard to start tapering in September because it would go against both the ‘coming meetings’ (plural) language in the July statement and the notion that the FOMC would provide ample notice before actually starting tapering.” <blockquote>“美联储将在9月会议前再发布一份就业报告。假设情况也不错，那么一个合理的基本情况是，联邦公开市场委员会在 9 月份的会议上表示，劳动力市场继续取得良好进展，如果进展继续以最近的速度进行，委员会将能够在未来几个月内开始缩减资产购买规模。这将使缩减资产购买规模的开始时间在 12 月底或 1 月初。“因此，我认为时间表保持不变。9 月份开始缩减资产规模很难，因为这既违背了 7 月份声明中'即将召开会议'（复数）的措辞，也违背了联邦公开市场委员会在实际开始缩减资产规模之前会提供充分通知的理念。”</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n\"Enough For Tapering To Start\": Wall Street Reacts To A Blockbuster Jobs Report<blockquote>“足以开始缩减规模”：华尔街对重磅就业报告的反应</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzerohedge2021-08-06 22:12\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nWith the jobs report coming in at just shy of 1 million jobs on the establishment survey (and just over 1 million on the Household survey), with strong job creation, a big drop in unemployment rate, higher employment-to-population, rising wages and hours worked, and favorable revisions, consensus - at least judging by the market reaction - is that we have entered the \"substantial progress\" phase, greenlighting a tapering signal by the Fed at the end of the month during the Jackson Hole symposium.<blockquote>就业报告显示，企业调查中的就业岗位略低于 100 万个（家庭调查中的就业岗位略高于 100 万个），就业创造强劲，失业率大幅下降，就业人口比率上升，工资和工作时间上涨，以及有利的修正，至少从市场反应来看，共识是我们已经进入了“实质性进展”阶段，为美联储在本月底杰克逊霍尔研讨会期间发出的缩减规模信号开了绿灯。</blockquote> And yet there is one potential hurdle: the Delta surge and ensuing restrictions and/or lockdowns: as TD Ameritrade's JJ Kinahan says, \"because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.”<blockquote>然而，还有一个潜在的障碍：三角洲的激增以及随之而来的限制和/或封锁： 正如德美利证券（TD Ameritrade）的 JJ Kinahan 所说：“由于德尔塔变异毒株，在我们对此有更多了解之前，我认为它会给我们带来不同的压力，我们会说，好吧，现在我们处于观望模式。很高兴看到就业岗位和经济都在增长--希望在下一份就业报告中，我们就能知道经济能否继续以这样的速度增长。现在看来会的。”</blockquote> Do others agree? Below we have excerpted some analyst and strategist reactions to today's report.<blockquote>其他人同意吗？下面我们摘录了一些分析师和策略师对今天报告的反应。</blockquote> Katherine Judge, CIBC Capital Markets:<blockquote>CIBC 资本市场 Katherine Judge：</blockquote> “With many states set to see the unemployment benefit top-ups expire in early September, healthy job gains should continue ahead, in line with elevated job openings. This print should be enough to allow the Fed to announce an early 2022 tapering of QE at the September meeting.” Chris Turner, head of foreign exchange strategy at ING Bank:<blockquote>“由于许多州的失业救济金补贴将于 9 月初到期，健康的就业增长应与职位空缺的增加保持一致。这一数字应足以让美联储在 9 月份的会议上宣布在 2022 年初缩减量化宽松政策。”荷兰国际集团银行外汇策略主管克里斯·特纳：</blockquote> The stronger-than-expected jobs report makes it more likely that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell may “drop heavy hints” at the Jackson Hole Symposium later this month, that the central bank may prepare to start tapering over subsequent months. The data is positive for the dollar versus the low-yielders such as the yen and euro. Still, the outlook for the greenback “should not necessarily damage the risk environment....Unless U.S. 10 year yields spike aggressively, high yield EM currencies should see demand on dips” Carl Riccadonna, Bloomberg Intelligence economist:<blockquote>强于预期的就业报告使得美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）更有可能在本月晚些时候的杰克逊霍尔研讨会上 “暗示”美联储可能准备在未来几个月开始缩减规模。该数据对美元兑日元和欧元等低收益货币有利。尽管如此，美元的前景“不一定会损害风险环境……除非美国 10 年期国债收益率大幅飙升，否则高收益新兴市场货币应该会在下跌时看到需求”。彭博情报经济学家卡尔·里卡多纳：</blockquote> The jobs report is “sturdy, but not as strong as it looks.” In addition to the modest fade in the pace of private-sector hiring (703,000 in July vs. 769,000 in June), much of the July gain occurred in the tenuous leisure and hospitality sector -- and that could easily reverse due to Covid-19, he said. This already appears to be evident in metrics such as OpenTable bookings. “So if we look at private-sector hiring outside of leisure and hospitality, today’s reported gain was 323,000, a bit slower than the prior month’s 375,000. This tells us that underlying economic momentum is steady-state, not accelerating.” Neil Dutta, economist at Renaissance Macro:<blockquote>就业报告 “稳健，但并不像看起来那么强劲”。他说，除了私营部门招聘速度略有放缓（7 月份为 703,000 人，6 月份为 769,000 人）之外，7 月份的大部分增长都发生在脆弱的休闲和酒店业，而且由于 Covid-19，这种情况很容易逆转。这在OpenTable预订等指标中似乎已经很明显了。“因此，如果我们看看休闲和酒店业以外的私营部门招聘情况，今天报告的增幅为 32.3 万人，略低于上月的 37.5 万人。这告诉我们，潜在的经济动能是稳定的，而不是加速的。”Neil Dutta，Renaissance Macro 经济学家:</blockquote> The FOMC could upgrade its language in the September statement to say that the economy is “on track for substantial further progress,” which would lead to a declaration of achievement of substantial further progress in “November at the earliest.”&nbsp; Tapering, in that event, could begin as early as December. JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade:<blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会可能会在 9 月份的声明中升级措辞，称经济 “有望取得实质性进一步进展”，这将导致 “最早在 11 月 ”宣布取得实质性进一步进展。在这种情况下，缩减规模最早可能在 12 月开始。德美利证券首席市场策略师 JJ Kinahan：</blockquote> “It’s a great number, there’s no way around that, it really is an impressive number. But I think if we didn’t have this new delta variant coming up, the conversation we’d be having is, is this inflationary, does this mean we’ll go into a taper, etc. But because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.” Roberto Perli, head of global policy research at Cornerstone Macro:<blockquote>“这是一个很棒的数字，这是无法回避的，这真的是一个令人印象深刻的数字。但我认为，如果我们没有新的德尔塔变异毒株，我们会讨论的话题是，这是否会导致通货膨胀，这是否意味着我们将进入缩减通货膨胀等等。但由于德尔塔变异毒株，在我们对此有更多了解之前，我认为它会给我们带来不同的压力，我们会说，好吧，现在我们处于观望模式。很高兴看到就业和经济都在发展--希望在下一份就业报告中，我们就能知道经济能否继续以这样的速度发展。现在看来会的。”Cornerstone Macro 全球政策研究主管 Roberto Perli：</blockquote> “The Fed will have one more employment report before the September meeting. Assuming it will be good as well, a plausible base case is for the FOMC to say at the September meeting that the labor market continued to make good progress, and if the progress continues at the recent pace the committee will be in a position to start tapering its asset purchases over the next few months.&nbsp; That would put the onset of tapering in late December or early January.“So bottom line I think the timeline remains the same.&nbsp; It would be hard to start tapering in September because it would go against both the ‘coming meetings’ (plural) language in the July statement and the notion that the FOMC would provide ample notice before actually starting tapering.” <blockquote>“美联储将在9月会议前再发布一份就业报告。假设情况也不错，那么一个合理的基本情况是，联邦公开市场委员会在 9 月份的会议上表示，劳动力市场继续取得良好进展，如果进展继续以最近的速度进行，委员会将能够在未来几个月内开始缩减资产购买规模。这将使缩减资产购买规模的开始时间在 12 月底或 1 月初。“因此，我认为时间表保持不变。9 月份开始缩减资产规模很难，因为这既违背了 7 月份声明中'即将召开会议'（复数）的措辞，也违背了联邦公开市场委员会在实际开始缩减资产规模之前会提供充分通知的理念。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/enough-tapering-start-wall-street-reacts-blockbuster-jobs-report\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/enough-tapering-start-wall-street-reacts-blockbuster-jobs-report","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1145298738","content_text":"With the jobs report coming in at just shy of 1 million jobs on the establishment survey (and just over 1 million on the Household survey), with strong job creation, a big drop in unemployment rate, higher employment-to-population, rising wages and hours worked, and favorable revisions, consensus - at least judging by the market reaction - is that we have entered the \"substantial progress\" phase, greenlighting a tapering signal by the Fed at the end of the month during the Jackson Hole symposium.\nAnd yet there is one potential hurdle: the Delta surge and ensuing restrictions and/or lockdowns: as TD Ameritrade's JJ Kinahan says, \"because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.”\nDo others agree? Below we have excerpted some analyst and strategist reactions to today's report.\nKatherine Judge, CIBC Capital Markets:\n\n“With many states set to see the unemployment benefit top-ups expire in early September, healthy job gains should continue ahead, in line with elevated job openings. This print should be enough to allow the Fed to announce an early 2022 tapering of QE at the September meeting.”\n\nChris Turner, head of foreign exchange strategy at ING Bank:\n\nThe stronger-than-expected jobs report makes it more likely that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell may “drop heavy hints” at the Jackson Hole Symposium later this month, that the central bank may prepare to start tapering over subsequent months. The data is positive for the dollar versus the low-yielders such as the yen and euro. Still, the outlook for the greenback “should not necessarily damage the risk environment....Unless U.S. 10 year yields spike aggressively, high yield EM currencies should see demand on dips”\n\nCarl Riccadonna, Bloomberg Intelligence economist:\n\nThe jobs report is “sturdy, but not as strong as it looks.” In addition to the modest fade in the pace of private-sector hiring (703,000 in July vs. 769,000 in June), much of the July gain occurred in the tenuous leisure and hospitality sector -- and that could easily reverse due to Covid-19, he said. This already appears to be evident in metrics such as OpenTable bookings. “So if we look at private-sector hiring outside of leisure and hospitality, today’s reported gain was 323,000, a bit slower than the prior month’s 375,000.\nThis tells us that underlying economic momentum is steady-state, not accelerating.”\n\nNeil Dutta, economist at Renaissance Macro:\n\nThe FOMC could upgrade its language in the September statement to say that the economy is “on track for substantial further progress,” which would lead to a declaration of achievement of substantial further progress in “November at the earliest.”  Tapering, in that event, could begin as early as December.\n\nJJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade:\n\n“It’s a great number, there’s no way around that, it really is an impressive number. But I think if we didn’t have this new delta variant coming up, the conversation we’d be having is, is this inflationary, does this mean we’ll go into a taper, etc. But because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.”\n\nRoberto Perli, head of global policy research at Cornerstone Macro:\n\n“The Fed will have one more employment report before the September meeting. Assuming it will be good as well, a plausible base case is for the FOMC to say at the September meeting that the labor market continued to make good progress, and if the progress continues at the recent pace the committee will be in a position to start tapering its asset purchases over the next few months.  That would put the onset of tapering in late December or early January.“So bottom line I think the timeline remains the same.  It would be hard to start tapering in September because it would go against both the ‘coming meetings’ (plural) language in the July statement and the notion that the FOMC would provide ample notice before actually starting tapering.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":893771534,"gmtCreate":1628303652528,"gmtModify":1633751808762,"author":{"id":"3584333947690568","authorId":"3584333947690568","name":"MrTig3r","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b99cfe4b0a492018c40761a39a193aa8","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[{"categoryType":1104,"badgeId":"99a38ff64bfd44f891fd016771fc8f64-1","name":"超级披露者","description":"在交易分享中开启超级披露","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70e97d213ed3e4f4820224f1366d402f","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/802f4014829adb4e63332fc230b97e42","isScarce":1,"plateColors":{"bgColor":{"dark":"#2f2a1f","tint":"#fcf6e5"},"fontColor":{"dark":"#dea95e","tint":"#885600"}},"effectEnabled":0,"redirectLinkEnabled":1,"redirectLinkType":1,"redirectLink":"https://www.itigerup.com/activity/forapp/star-investor","redirectLinkValidityFrom":1776816000000,"redirectLinkValidityTo":2156198400000,"sortingWeight":0,"wearable":1}],"authorIdStr":"3584333947690568","idStr":"3584333947690568"},"htmlText":"taper taper taper","listText":"taper taper taper","text":"taper taper taper","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/893771534","repostId":1145298738,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1145298738","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628259150,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1145298738?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-06 22:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"\"Enough For Tapering To Start\": Wall Street Reacts To A Blockbuster Jobs Report<blockquote>“足以开始缩减规模”：华尔街对重磅就业报告的反应</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1145298738","media":"zerohedge","summary":"With the jobs report coming in at just shy of 1 million jobs on the establishment survey (and just o","content":"With the jobs report coming in at just shy of 1 million jobs on the establishment survey (and just over 1 million on the Household survey), with strong job creation, a big drop in unemployment rate, higher employment-to-population, rising wages and hours worked, and favorable revisions, consensus - at least judging by the market reaction - is that we have entered the \"substantial progress\" phase, greenlighting a tapering signal by the Fed at the end of the month during the Jackson Hole symposium.<blockquote>就业报告显示，企业调查中的就业岗位略低于 100 万个（家庭调查中的就业岗位略高于 100 万个），就业创造强劲，失业率大幅下降，就业人口比率上升，工资和工作时间上涨，以及有利的修正，至少从市场反应来看，共识是我们已经进入了“实质性进展”阶段，为美联储在本月底杰克逊霍尔研讨会期间发出的缩减规模信号开了绿灯。</blockquote> And yet there is one potential hurdle: the Delta surge and ensuing restrictions and/or lockdowns: as TD Ameritrade's JJ Kinahan says, \"because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.”<blockquote>然而，还有一个潜在的障碍：三角洲的激增以及随之而来的限制和/或封锁： 正如德美利证券（TD Ameritrade）的 JJ Kinahan 所说：“由于德尔塔变异毒株，在我们对此有更多了解之前，我认为它会给我们带来不同的压力，我们会说，好吧，现在我们处于观望模式。很高兴看到就业岗位和经济都在增长--希望在下一份就业报告中，我们就能知道经济能否继续以这样的速度增长。现在看来会的。”</blockquote> Do others agree? Below we have excerpted some analyst and strategist reactions to today's report.<blockquote>其他人同意吗？下面我们摘录了一些分析师和策略师对今天报告的反应。</blockquote> Katherine Judge, CIBC Capital Markets:<blockquote>CIBC 资本市场 Katherine Judge：</blockquote> “With many states set to see the unemployment benefit top-ups expire in early September, healthy job gains should continue ahead, in line with elevated job openings. This print should be enough to allow the Fed to announce an early 2022 tapering of QE at the September meeting.” Chris Turner, head of foreign exchange strategy at ING Bank:<blockquote>“由于许多州的失业救济金补贴将于 9 月初到期，健康的就业增长应与职位空缺的增加保持一致。这一数字应足以让美联储在 9 月份的会议上宣布在 2022 年初缩减量化宽松政策。”荷兰国际集团银行外汇策略主管克里斯·特纳：</blockquote> The stronger-than-expected jobs report makes it more likely that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell may “drop heavy hints” at the Jackson Hole Symposium later this month, that the central bank may prepare to start tapering over subsequent months. The data is positive for the dollar versus the low-yielders such as the yen and euro. Still, the outlook for the greenback “should not necessarily damage the risk environment....Unless U.S. 10 year yields spike aggressively, high yield EM currencies should see demand on dips” Carl Riccadonna, Bloomberg Intelligence economist:<blockquote>强于预期的就业报告使得美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）更有可能在本月晚些时候的杰克逊霍尔研讨会上 “暗示”美联储可能准备在未来几个月开始缩减规模。该数据对美元兑日元和欧元等低收益货币有利。尽管如此，美元的前景“不一定会损害风险环境……除非美国 10 年期国债收益率大幅飙升，否则高收益新兴市场货币应该会在下跌时看到需求”。彭博情报经济学家卡尔·里卡多纳：</blockquote> The jobs report is “sturdy, but not as strong as it looks.” In addition to the modest fade in the pace of private-sector hiring (703,000 in July vs. 769,000 in June), much of the July gain occurred in the tenuous leisure and hospitality sector -- and that could easily reverse due to Covid-19, he said. This already appears to be evident in metrics such as OpenTable bookings. “So if we look at private-sector hiring outside of leisure and hospitality, today’s reported gain was 323,000, a bit slower than the prior month’s 375,000. This tells us that underlying economic momentum is steady-state, not accelerating.” Neil Dutta, economist at Renaissance Macro:<blockquote>就业报告 “稳健，但并不像看起来那么强劲”。他说，除了私营部门招聘速度略有放缓（7 月份为 703,000 人，6 月份为 769,000 人）之外，7 月份的大部分增长都发生在脆弱的休闲和酒店业，而且由于 Covid-19，这种情况很容易逆转。这在OpenTable预订等指标中似乎已经很明显了。“因此，如果我们看看休闲和酒店业以外的私营部门招聘情况，今天报告的增幅为 32.3 万人，略低于上月的 37.5 万人。这告诉我们，潜在的经济动能是稳定的，而不是加速的。”Neil Dutta，Renaissance Macro 经济学家:</blockquote> The FOMC could upgrade its language in the September statement to say that the economy is “on track for substantial further progress,” which would lead to a declaration of achievement of substantial further progress in “November at the earliest.”&nbsp; Tapering, in that event, could begin as early as December. JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade:<blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会可能会在 9 月份的声明中升级措辞，称经济 “有望取得实质性进一步进展”，这将导致 “最早在 11 月 ”宣布取得实质性进一步进展。在这种情况下，缩减规模最早可能在 12 月开始。德美利证券首席市场策略师 JJ Kinahan：</blockquote> “It’s a great number, there’s no way around that, it really is an impressive number. But I think if we didn’t have this new delta variant coming up, the conversation we’d be having is, is this inflationary, does this mean we’ll go into a taper, etc. But because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.” Roberto Perli, head of global policy research at Cornerstone Macro:<blockquote>“这是一个很棒的数字，这是无法回避的，这真的是一个令人印象深刻的数字。但我认为，如果我们没有新的德尔塔变异毒株，我们会讨论的话题是，这是否会导致通货膨胀，这是否意味着我们将进入缩减通货膨胀等等。但由于德尔塔变异毒株，在我们对此有更多了解之前，我认为它会给我们带来不同的压力，我们会说，好吧，现在我们处于观望模式。很高兴看到就业和经济都在发展--希望在下一份就业报告中，我们就能知道经济能否继续以这样的速度发展。现在看来会的。”Cornerstone Macro 全球政策研究主管 Roberto Perli：</blockquote> “The Fed will have one more employment report before the September meeting. Assuming it will be good as well, a plausible base case is for the FOMC to say at the September meeting that the labor market continued to make good progress, and if the progress continues at the recent pace the committee will be in a position to start tapering its asset purchases over the next few months.&nbsp; That would put the onset of tapering in late December or early January.“So bottom line I think the timeline remains the same.&nbsp; It would be hard to start tapering in September because it would go against both the ‘coming meetings’ (plural) language in the July statement and the notion that the FOMC would provide ample notice before actually starting tapering.” <blockquote>“美联储将在9月会议前再发布一份就业报告。假设情况也不错，那么一个合理的基本情况是，联邦公开市场委员会在 9 月份的会议上表示，劳动力市场继续取得良好进展，如果进展继续以最近的速度进行，委员会将能够在未来几个月内开始缩减资产购买规模。这将使缩减资产购买规模的开始时间在 12 月底或 1 月初。“因此，我认为时间表保持不变。9 月份开始缩减资产规模很难，因为这既违背了 7 月份声明中'即将召开会议'（复数）的措辞，也违背了联邦公开市场委员会在实际开始缩减资产规模之前会提供充分通知的理念。”</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.”<blockquote>然而，还有一个潜在的障碍：三角洲的激增以及随之而来的限制和/或封锁： 正如德美利证券（TD Ameritrade）的 JJ Kinahan 所说：“由于德尔塔变异毒株，在我们对此有更多了解之前，我认为它会给我们带来不同的压力，我们会说，好吧，现在我们处于观望模式。很高兴看到就业岗位和经济都在增长--希望在下一份就业报告中，我们就能知道经济能否继续以这样的速度增长。现在看来会的。”</blockquote> Do others agree? Below we have excerpted some analyst and strategist reactions to today's report.<blockquote>其他人同意吗？下面我们摘录了一些分析师和策略师对今天报告的反应。</blockquote> Katherine Judge, CIBC Capital Markets:<blockquote>CIBC 资本市场 Katherine Judge：</blockquote> “With many states set to see the unemployment benefit top-ups expire in early September, healthy job gains should continue ahead, in line with elevated job openings. This print should be enough to allow the Fed to announce an early 2022 tapering of QE at the September meeting.” Chris Turner, head of foreign exchange strategy at ING Bank:<blockquote>“由于许多州的失业救济金补贴将于 9 月初到期，健康的就业增长应与职位空缺的增加保持一致。这一数字应足以让美联储在 9 月份的会议上宣布在 2022 年初缩减量化宽松政策。”荷兰国际集团银行外汇策略主管克里斯·特纳：</blockquote> The stronger-than-expected jobs report makes it more likely that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell may “drop heavy hints” at the Jackson Hole Symposium later this month, that the central bank may prepare to start tapering over subsequent months. The data is positive for the dollar versus the low-yielders such as the yen and euro. Still, the outlook for the greenback “should not necessarily damage the risk environment....Unless U.S. 10 year yields spike aggressively, high yield EM currencies should see demand on dips” Carl Riccadonna, Bloomberg Intelligence economist:<blockquote>强于预期的就业报告使得美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）更有可能在本月晚些时候的杰克逊霍尔研讨会上 “暗示”美联储可能准备在未来几个月开始缩减规模。该数据对美元兑日元和欧元等低收益货币有利。尽管如此，美元的前景“不一定会损害风险环境……除非美国 10 年期国债收益率大幅飙升，否则高收益新兴市场货币应该会在下跌时看到需求”。彭博情报经济学家卡尔·里卡多纳：</blockquote> The jobs report is “sturdy, but not as strong as it looks.” In addition to the modest fade in the pace of private-sector hiring (703,000 in July vs. 769,000 in June), much of the July gain occurred in the tenuous leisure and hospitality sector -- and that could easily reverse due to Covid-19, he said. This already appears to be evident in metrics such as OpenTable bookings. “So if we look at private-sector hiring outside of leisure and hospitality, today’s reported gain was 323,000, a bit slower than the prior month’s 375,000. This tells us that underlying economic momentum is steady-state, not accelerating.” Neil Dutta, economist at Renaissance Macro:<blockquote>就业报告 “稳健，但并不像看起来那么强劲”。他说，除了私营部门招聘速度略有放缓（7 月份为 703,000 人，6 月份为 769,000 人）之外，7 月份的大部分增长都发生在脆弱的休闲和酒店业，而且由于 Covid-19，这种情况很容易逆转。这在OpenTable预订等指标中似乎已经很明显了。“因此，如果我们看看休闲和酒店业以外的私营部门招聘情况，今天报告的增幅为 32.3 万人，略低于上月的 37.5 万人。这告诉我们，潜在的经济动能是稳定的，而不是加速的。”Neil Dutta，Renaissance Macro 经济学家:</blockquote> The FOMC could upgrade its language in the September statement to say that the economy is “on track for substantial further progress,” which would lead to a declaration of achievement of substantial further progress in “November at the earliest.”&nbsp; Tapering, in that event, could begin as early as December. JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade:<blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会可能会在 9 月份的声明中升级措辞，称经济 “有望取得实质性进一步进展”，这将导致 “最早在 11 月 ”宣布取得实质性进一步进展。在这种情况下，缩减规模最早可能在 12 月开始。德美利证券首席市场策略师 JJ Kinahan：</blockquote> “It’s a great number, there’s no way around that, it really is an impressive number. But I think if we didn’t have this new delta variant coming up, the conversation we’d be having is, is this inflationary, does this mean we’ll go into a taper, etc. But because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.” Roberto Perli, head of global policy research at Cornerstone Macro:<blockquote>“这是一个很棒的数字，这是无法回避的，这真的是一个令人印象深刻的数字。但我认为，如果我们没有新的德尔塔变异毒株，我们会讨论的话题是，这是否会导致通货膨胀，这是否意味着我们将进入缩减通货膨胀等等。但由于德尔塔变异毒株，在我们对此有更多了解之前，我认为它会给我们带来不同的压力，我们会说，好吧，现在我们处于观望模式。很高兴看到就业和经济都在发展--希望在下一份就业报告中，我们就能知道经济能否继续以这样的速度发展。现在看来会的。”Cornerstone Macro 全球政策研究主管 Roberto Perli：</blockquote> “The Fed will have one more employment report before the September meeting. Assuming it will be good as well, a plausible base case is for the FOMC to say at the September meeting that the labor market continued to make good progress, and if the progress continues at the recent pace the committee will be in a position to start tapering its asset purchases over the next few months.&nbsp; That would put the onset of tapering in late December or early January.“So bottom line I think the timeline remains the same.&nbsp; It would be hard to start tapering in September because it would go against both the ‘coming meetings’ (plural) language in the July statement and the notion that the FOMC would provide ample notice before actually starting tapering.” <blockquote>“美联储将在9月会议前再发布一份就业报告。假设情况也不错，那么一个合理的基本情况是，联邦公开市场委员会在 9 月份的会议上表示，劳动力市场继续取得良好进展，如果进展继续以最近的速度进行，委员会将能够在未来几个月内开始缩减资产购买规模。这将使缩减资产购买规模的开始时间在 12 月底或 1 月初。“因此，我认为时间表保持不变。9 月份开始缩减资产规模很难，因为这既违背了 7 月份声明中'即将召开会议'（复数）的措辞，也违背了联邦公开市场委员会在实际开始缩减资产规模之前会提供充分通知的理念。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/enough-tapering-start-wall-street-reacts-blockbuster-jobs-report\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/enough-tapering-start-wall-street-reacts-blockbuster-jobs-report","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1145298738","content_text":"With the jobs report coming in at just shy of 1 million jobs on the establishment survey (and just over 1 million on the Household survey), with strong job creation, a big drop in unemployment rate, higher employment-to-population, rising wages and hours worked, and favorable revisions, consensus - at least judging by the market reaction - is that we have entered the \"substantial progress\" phase, greenlighting a tapering signal by the Fed at the end of the month during the Jackson Hole symposium.\nAnd yet there is one potential hurdle: the Delta surge and ensuing restrictions and/or lockdowns: as TD Ameritrade's JJ Kinahan says, \"because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.”\nDo others agree? Below we have excerpted some analyst and strategist reactions to today's report.\nKatherine Judge, CIBC Capital Markets:\n\n“With many states set to see the unemployment benefit top-ups expire in early September, healthy job gains should continue ahead, in line with elevated job openings. This print should be enough to allow the Fed to announce an early 2022 tapering of QE at the September meeting.”\n\nChris Turner, head of foreign exchange strategy at ING Bank:\n\nThe stronger-than-expected jobs report makes it more likely that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell may “drop heavy hints” at the Jackson Hole Symposium later this month, that the central bank may prepare to start tapering over subsequent months. The data is positive for the dollar versus the low-yielders such as the yen and euro. Still, the outlook for the greenback “should not necessarily damage the risk environment....Unless U.S. 10 year yields spike aggressively, high yield EM currencies should see demand on dips”\n\nCarl Riccadonna, Bloomberg Intelligence economist:\n\nThe jobs report is “sturdy, but not as strong as it looks.” In addition to the modest fade in the pace of private-sector hiring (703,000 in July vs. 769,000 in June), much of the July gain occurred in the tenuous leisure and hospitality sector -- and that could easily reverse due to Covid-19, he said. This already appears to be evident in metrics such as OpenTable bookings. “So if we look at private-sector hiring outside of leisure and hospitality, today’s reported gain was 323,000, a bit slower than the prior month’s 375,000.\nThis tells us that underlying economic momentum is steady-state, not accelerating.”\n\nNeil Dutta, economist at Renaissance Macro:\n\nThe FOMC could upgrade its language in the September statement to say that the economy is “on track for substantial further progress,” which would lead to a declaration of achievement of substantial further progress in “November at the earliest.”  Tapering, in that event, could begin as early as December.\n\nJJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade:\n\n“It’s a great number, there’s no way around that, it really is an impressive number. But I think if we didn’t have this new delta variant coming up, the conversation we’d be having is, is this inflationary, does this mean we’ll go into a taper, etc. But because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.”\n\nRoberto Perli, head of global policy research at Cornerstone Macro:\n\n“The Fed will have one more employment report before the September meeting. Assuming it will be good as well, a plausible base case is for the FOMC to say at the September meeting that the labor market continued to make good progress, and if the progress continues at the recent pace the committee will be in a position to start tapering its asset purchases over the next few months.  That would put the onset of tapering in late December or early January.“So bottom line I think the timeline remains the same.  It would be hard to start tapering in September because it would go against both the ‘coming meetings’ (plural) language in the July statement and the notion that the FOMC would provide ample notice before actually starting tapering.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5453474,"gmtCreate":1628307576268,"gmtModify":1635157899845,"authorId":3574119575606145,"author":{"id":3574119575606145,"idStr":"3574119575606145","authorId":3574119575606145,"name":"L1324","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b05b9f32dd8af2590c80da38d48e37fc","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":893771534,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"tap tap tap","text":"tap tap tap","html":"tap tap tap"},{"id":5453663,"gmtCreate":1628308863828,"gmtModify":1635157883000,"authorId":3569829429894333,"author":{"id":3569829429894333,"idStr":"3569829429894333","authorId":3569829429894333,"name":"Weijielim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f15e78cf1614d5802ab8dfb0d542754d","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":893771534,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"ok","text":"ok","html":"ok"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":893717495,"gmtCreate":1628300636917,"gmtModify":1633751857583,"author":{"id":"4089160892475280","authorId":"4089160892475280","name":"EeEeEeE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3284dd3badb8943784e84f83871c482c","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"4089160892475280","idStr":"4089160892475280"},"htmlText":"[Miser]&nbsp;","listText":"[Miser]&nbsp;","text":"[Miser]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/893717495","repostId":1145298738,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1145298738","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628259150,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1145298738?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-06 22:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"\"Enough For Tapering To Start\": Wall Street Reacts To A Blockbuster Jobs Report<blockquote>“足以开始缩减规模”：华尔街对重磅就业报告的反应</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1145298738","media":"zerohedge","summary":"With the jobs report coming in at just shy of 1 million jobs on the establishment survey (and just o","content":"With the jobs report coming in at just shy of 1 million jobs on the establishment survey (and just over 1 million on the Household survey), with strong job creation, a big drop in unemployment rate, higher employment-to-population, rising wages and hours worked, and favorable revisions, consensus - at least judging by the market reaction - is that we have entered the \"substantial progress\" phase, greenlighting a tapering signal by the Fed at the end of the month during the Jackson Hole symposium.<blockquote>就业报告显示，企业调查中的就业岗位略低于 100 万个（家庭调查中的就业岗位略高于 100 万个），就业创造强劲，失业率大幅下降，就业人口比率上升，工资和工作时间上涨，以及有利的修正，至少从市场反应来看，共识是我们已经进入了“实质性进展”阶段，为美联储在本月底杰克逊霍尔研讨会期间发出的缩减规模信号开了绿灯。</blockquote> And yet there is one potential hurdle: the Delta surge and ensuing restrictions and/or lockdowns: as TD Ameritrade's JJ Kinahan says, \"because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.”<blockquote>然而，还有一个潜在的障碍：三角洲的激增以及随之而来的限制和/或封锁： 正如德美利证券（TD Ameritrade）的 JJ Kinahan 所说：“由于德尔塔变异毒株，在我们对此有更多了解之前，我认为它会给我们带来不同的压力，我们会说，好吧，现在我们处于观望模式。很高兴看到就业岗位和经济都在增长--希望在下一份就业报告中，我们就能知道经济能否继续以这样的速度增长。现在看来会的。”</blockquote> Do others agree? Below we have excerpted some analyst and strategist reactions to today's report.<blockquote>其他人同意吗？下面我们摘录了一些分析师和策略师对今天报告的反应。</blockquote> Katherine Judge, CIBC Capital Markets:<blockquote>CIBC 资本市场 Katherine Judge：</blockquote> “With many states set to see the unemployment benefit top-ups expire in early September, healthy job gains should continue ahead, in line with elevated job openings. This print should be enough to allow the Fed to announce an early 2022 tapering of QE at the September meeting.” Chris Turner, head of foreign exchange strategy at ING Bank:<blockquote>“由于许多州的失业救济金补贴将于 9 月初到期，健康的就业增长应与职位空缺的增加保持一致。这一数字应足以让美联储在 9 月份的会议上宣布在 2022 年初缩减量化宽松政策。”荷兰国际集团银行外汇策略主管克里斯·特纳：</blockquote> The stronger-than-expected jobs report makes it more likely that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell may “drop heavy hints” at the Jackson Hole Symposium later this month, that the central bank may prepare to start tapering over subsequent months. The data is positive for the dollar versus the low-yielders such as the yen and euro. Still, the outlook for the greenback “should not necessarily damage the risk environment....Unless U.S. 10 year yields spike aggressively, high yield EM currencies should see demand on dips” Carl Riccadonna, Bloomberg Intelligence economist:<blockquote>强于预期的就业报告使得美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）更有可能在本月晚些时候的杰克逊霍尔研讨会上 “暗示”美联储可能准备在未来几个月开始缩减规模。该数据对美元兑日元和欧元等低收益货币有利。尽管如此，美元的前景“不一定会损害风险环境……除非美国 10 年期国债收益率大幅飙升，否则高收益新兴市场货币应该会在下跌时看到需求”。彭博情报经济学家卡尔·里卡多纳：</blockquote> The jobs report is “sturdy, but not as strong as it looks.” In addition to the modest fade in the pace of private-sector hiring (703,000 in July vs. 769,000 in June), much of the July gain occurred in the tenuous leisure and hospitality sector -- and that could easily reverse due to Covid-19, he said. This already appears to be evident in metrics such as OpenTable bookings. “So if we look at private-sector hiring outside of leisure and hospitality, today’s reported gain was 323,000, a bit slower than the prior month’s 375,000. This tells us that underlying economic momentum is steady-state, not accelerating.” Neil Dutta, economist at Renaissance Macro:<blockquote>就业报告 “稳健，但并不像看起来那么强劲”。他说，除了私营部门招聘速度略有放缓（7 月份为 703,000 人，6 月份为 769,000 人）之外，7 月份的大部分增长都发生在脆弱的休闲和酒店业，而且由于 Covid-19，这种情况很容易逆转。这在OpenTable预订等指标中似乎已经很明显了。“因此，如果我们看看休闲和酒店业以外的私营部门招聘情况，今天报告的增幅为 32.3 万人，略低于上月的 37.5 万人。这告诉我们，潜在的经济动能是稳定的，而不是加速的。”Neil Dutta，Renaissance Macro 经济学家:</blockquote> The FOMC could upgrade its language in the September statement to say that the economy is “on track for substantial further progress,” which would lead to a declaration of achievement of substantial further progress in “November at the earliest.”&nbsp; Tapering, in that event, could begin as early as December. JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade:<blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会可能会在 9 月份的声明中升级措辞，称经济 “有望取得实质性进一步进展”，这将导致 “最早在 11 月 ”宣布取得实质性进一步进展。在这种情况下，缩减规模最早可能在 12 月开始。德美利证券首席市场策略师 JJ Kinahan：</blockquote> “It’s a great number, there’s no way around that, it really is an impressive number. But I think if we didn’t have this new delta variant coming up, the conversation we’d be having is, is this inflationary, does this mean we’ll go into a taper, etc. But because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.” Roberto Perli, head of global policy research at Cornerstone Macro:<blockquote>“这是一个很棒的数字，这是无法回避的，这真的是一个令人印象深刻的数字。但我认为，如果我们没有新的德尔塔变异毒株，我们会讨论的话题是，这是否会导致通货膨胀，这是否意味着我们将进入缩减通货膨胀等等。但由于德尔塔变异毒株，在我们对此有更多了解之前，我认为它会给我们带来不同的压力，我们会说，好吧，现在我们处于观望模式。很高兴看到就业和经济都在发展--希望在下一份就业报告中，我们就能知道经济能否继续以这样的速度发展。现在看来会的。”Cornerstone Macro 全球政策研究主管 Roberto Perli：</blockquote> “The Fed will have one more employment report before the September meeting. Assuming it will be good as well, a plausible base case is for the FOMC to say at the September meeting that the labor market continued to make good progress, and if the progress continues at the recent pace the committee will be in a position to start tapering its asset purchases over the next few months.&nbsp; That would put the onset of tapering in late December or early January.“So bottom line I think the timeline remains the same.&nbsp; It would be hard to start tapering in September because it would go against both the ‘coming meetings’ (plural) language in the July statement and the notion that the FOMC would provide ample notice before actually starting tapering.” <blockquote>“美联储将在9月会议前再发布一份就业报告。假设情况也不错，那么一个合理的基本情况是，联邦公开市场委员会在 9 月份的会议上表示，劳动力市场继续取得良好进展，如果进展继续以最近的速度进行，委员会将能够在未来几个月内开始缩减资产购买规模。这将使缩减资产购买规模的开始时间在 12 月底或 1 月初。“因此，我认为时间表保持不变。9 月份开始缩减资产规模很难，因为这既违背了 7 月份声明中'即将召开会议'（复数）的措辞，也违背了联邦公开市场委员会在实际开始缩减资产规模之前会提供充分通知的理念。”</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.”<blockquote>然而，还有一个潜在的障碍：三角洲的激增以及随之而来的限制和/或封锁： 正如德美利证券（TD Ameritrade）的 JJ Kinahan 所说：“由于德尔塔变异毒株，在我们对此有更多了解之前，我认为它会给我们带来不同的压力，我们会说，好吧，现在我们处于观望模式。很高兴看到就业岗位和经济都在增长--希望在下一份就业报告中，我们就能知道经济能否继续以这样的速度增长。现在看来会的。”</blockquote> Do others agree? Below we have excerpted some analyst and strategist reactions to today's report.<blockquote>其他人同意吗？下面我们摘录了一些分析师和策略师对今天报告的反应。</blockquote> Katherine Judge, CIBC Capital Markets:<blockquote>CIBC 资本市场 Katherine Judge：</blockquote> “With many states set to see the unemployment benefit top-ups expire in early September, healthy job gains should continue ahead, in line with elevated job openings. This print should be enough to allow the Fed to announce an early 2022 tapering of QE at the September meeting.” Chris Turner, head of foreign exchange strategy at ING Bank:<blockquote>“由于许多州的失业救济金补贴将于 9 月初到期，健康的就业增长应与职位空缺的增加保持一致。这一数字应足以让美联储在 9 月份的会议上宣布在 2022 年初缩减量化宽松政策。”荷兰国际集团银行外汇策略主管克里斯·特纳：</blockquote> The stronger-than-expected jobs report makes it more likely that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell may “drop heavy hints” at the Jackson Hole Symposium later this month, that the central bank may prepare to start tapering over subsequent months. The data is positive for the dollar versus the low-yielders such as the yen and euro. Still, the outlook for the greenback “should not necessarily damage the risk environment....Unless U.S. 10 year yields spike aggressively, high yield EM currencies should see demand on dips” Carl Riccadonna, Bloomberg Intelligence economist:<blockquote>强于预期的就业报告使得美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）更有可能在本月晚些时候的杰克逊霍尔研讨会上 “暗示”美联储可能准备在未来几个月开始缩减规模。该数据对美元兑日元和欧元等低收益货币有利。尽管如此，美元的前景“不一定会损害风险环境……除非美国 10 年期国债收益率大幅飙升，否则高收益新兴市场货币应该会在下跌时看到需求”。彭博情报经济学家卡尔·里卡多纳：</blockquote> The jobs report is “sturdy, but not as strong as it looks.” In addition to the modest fade in the pace of private-sector hiring (703,000 in July vs. 769,000 in June), much of the July gain occurred in the tenuous leisure and hospitality sector -- and that could easily reverse due to Covid-19, he said. This already appears to be evident in metrics such as OpenTable bookings. “So if we look at private-sector hiring outside of leisure and hospitality, today’s reported gain was 323,000, a bit slower than the prior month’s 375,000. This tells us that underlying economic momentum is steady-state, not accelerating.” Neil Dutta, economist at Renaissance Macro:<blockquote>就业报告 “稳健，但并不像看起来那么强劲”。他说，除了私营部门招聘速度略有放缓（7 月份为 703,000 人，6 月份为 769,000 人）之外，7 月份的大部分增长都发生在脆弱的休闲和酒店业，而且由于 Covid-19，这种情况很容易逆转。这在OpenTable预订等指标中似乎已经很明显了。“因此，如果我们看看休闲和酒店业以外的私营部门招聘情况，今天报告的增幅为 32.3 万人，略低于上月的 37.5 万人。这告诉我们，潜在的经济动能是稳定的，而不是加速的。”Neil Dutta，Renaissance Macro 经济学家:</blockquote> The FOMC could upgrade its language in the September statement to say that the economy is “on track for substantial further progress,” which would lead to a declaration of achievement of substantial further progress in “November at the earliest.”&nbsp; Tapering, in that event, could begin as early as December. JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade:<blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会可能会在 9 月份的声明中升级措辞，称经济 “有望取得实质性进一步进展”，这将导致 “最早在 11 月 ”宣布取得实质性进一步进展。在这种情况下，缩减规模最早可能在 12 月开始。德美利证券首席市场策略师 JJ Kinahan：</blockquote> “It’s a great number, there’s no way around that, it really is an impressive number. But I think if we didn’t have this new delta variant coming up, the conversation we’d be having is, is this inflationary, does this mean we’ll go into a taper, etc. But because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.” Roberto Perli, head of global policy research at Cornerstone Macro:<blockquote>“这是一个很棒的数字，这是无法回避的，这真的是一个令人印象深刻的数字。但我认为，如果我们没有新的德尔塔变异毒株，我们会讨论的话题是，这是否会导致通货膨胀，这是否意味着我们将进入缩减通货膨胀等等。但由于德尔塔变异毒株，在我们对此有更多了解之前，我认为它会给我们带来不同的压力，我们会说，好吧，现在我们处于观望模式。很高兴看到就业和经济都在发展--希望在下一份就业报告中，我们就能知道经济能否继续以这样的速度发展。现在看来会的。”Cornerstone Macro 全球政策研究主管 Roberto Perli：</blockquote> “The Fed will have one more employment report before the September meeting. Assuming it will be good as well, a plausible base case is for the FOMC to say at the September meeting that the labor market continued to make good progress, and if the progress continues at the recent pace the committee will be in a position to start tapering its asset purchases over the next few months.&nbsp; That would put the onset of tapering in late December or early January.“So bottom line I think the timeline remains the same.&nbsp; It would be hard to start tapering in September because it would go against both the ‘coming meetings’ (plural) language in the July statement and the notion that the FOMC would provide ample notice before actually starting tapering.” <blockquote>“美联储将在9月会议前再发布一份就业报告。假设情况也不错，那么一个合理的基本情况是，联邦公开市场委员会在 9 月份的会议上表示，劳动力市场继续取得良好进展，如果进展继续以最近的速度进行，委员会将能够在未来几个月内开始缩减资产购买规模。这将使缩减资产购买规模的开始时间在 12 月底或 1 月初。“因此，我认为时间表保持不变。9 月份开始缩减资产规模很难，因为这既违背了 7 月份声明中'即将召开会议'（复数）的措辞，也违背了联邦公开市场委员会在实际开始缩减资产规模之前会提供充分通知的理念。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/enough-tapering-start-wall-street-reacts-blockbuster-jobs-report\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/enough-tapering-start-wall-street-reacts-blockbuster-jobs-report","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1145298738","content_text":"With the jobs report coming in at just shy of 1 million jobs on the establishment survey (and just over 1 million on the Household survey), with strong job creation, a big drop in unemployment rate, higher employment-to-population, rising wages and hours worked, and favorable revisions, consensus - at least judging by the market reaction - is that we have entered the \"substantial progress\" phase, greenlighting a tapering signal by the Fed at the end of the month during the Jackson Hole symposium.\nAnd yet there is one potential hurdle: the Delta surge and ensuing restrictions and/or lockdowns: as TD Ameritrade's JJ Kinahan says, \"because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.”\nDo others agree? Below we have excerpted some analyst and strategist reactions to today's report.\nKatherine Judge, CIBC Capital Markets:\n\n“With many states set to see the unemployment benefit top-ups expire in early September, healthy job gains should continue ahead, in line with elevated job openings. This print should be enough to allow the Fed to announce an early 2022 tapering of QE at the September meeting.”\n\nChris Turner, head of foreign exchange strategy at ING Bank:\n\nThe stronger-than-expected jobs report makes it more likely that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell may “drop heavy hints” at the Jackson Hole Symposium later this month, that the central bank may prepare to start tapering over subsequent months. The data is positive for the dollar versus the low-yielders such as the yen and euro. Still, the outlook for the greenback “should not necessarily damage the risk environment....Unless U.S. 10 year yields spike aggressively, high yield EM currencies should see demand on dips”\n\nCarl Riccadonna, Bloomberg Intelligence economist:\n\nThe jobs report is “sturdy, but not as strong as it looks.” In addition to the modest fade in the pace of private-sector hiring (703,000 in July vs. 769,000 in June), much of the July gain occurred in the tenuous leisure and hospitality sector -- and that could easily reverse due to Covid-19, he said. This already appears to be evident in metrics such as OpenTable bookings. “So if we look at private-sector hiring outside of leisure and hospitality, today’s reported gain was 323,000, a bit slower than the prior month’s 375,000.\nThis tells us that underlying economic momentum is steady-state, not accelerating.”\n\nNeil Dutta, economist at Renaissance Macro:\n\nThe FOMC could upgrade its language in the September statement to say that the economy is “on track for substantial further progress,” which would lead to a declaration of achievement of substantial further progress in “November at the earliest.”  Tapering, in that event, could begin as early as December.\n\nJJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade:\n\n“It’s a great number, there’s no way around that, it really is an impressive number. But I think if we didn’t have this new delta variant coming up, the conversation we’d be having is, is this inflationary, does this mean we’ll go into a taper, etc. But because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.”\n\nRoberto Perli, head of global policy research at Cornerstone Macro:\n\n“The Fed will have one more employment report before the September meeting. Assuming it will be good as well, a plausible base case is for the FOMC to say at the September meeting that the labor market continued to make good progress, and if the progress continues at the recent pace the committee will be in a position to start tapering its asset purchases over the next few months.  That would put the onset of tapering in late December or early January.“So bottom line I think the timeline remains the same.  It would be hard to start tapering in September because it would go against both the ‘coming meetings’ (plural) language in the July statement and the notion that the FOMC would provide ample notice before actually starting tapering.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":893710959,"gmtCreate":1628299920471,"gmtModify":1628299920471,"author":{"id":"3581063216443091","authorId":"3581063216443091","name":"老Uncle","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef0828d104dbb47c9e2122177cf0d3b5","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3581063216443091","idStr":"3581063216443091"},"htmlText":"ah lai liao lor 😁😁","listText":"ah lai liao lor 😁😁","text":"ah lai liao lor 😁😁","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":13,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/893710959","repostId":1145298738,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1145298738","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628259150,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1145298738?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-06 22:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"\"Enough For Tapering To Start\": Wall Street Reacts To A Blockbuster Jobs Report<blockquote>“足以开始缩减规模”：华尔街对重磅就业报告的反应</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1145298738","media":"zerohedge","summary":"With the jobs report coming in at just shy of 1 million jobs on the establishment survey (and just o","content":"With the jobs report coming in at just shy of 1 million jobs on the establishment survey (and just over 1 million on the Household survey), with strong job creation, a big drop in unemployment rate, higher employment-to-population, rising wages and hours worked, and favorable revisions, consensus - at least judging by the market reaction - is that we have entered the \"substantial progress\" phase, greenlighting a tapering signal by the Fed at the end of the month during the Jackson Hole symposium.<blockquote>就业报告显示，企业调查中的就业岗位略低于 100 万个（家庭调查中的就业岗位略高于 100 万个），就业创造强劲，失业率大幅下降，就业人口比率上升，工资和工作时间上涨，以及有利的修正，至少从市场反应来看，共识是我们已经进入了“实质性进展”阶段，为美联储在本月底杰克逊霍尔研讨会期间发出的缩减规模信号开了绿灯。</blockquote> And yet there is one potential hurdle: the Delta surge and ensuing restrictions and/or lockdowns: as TD Ameritrade's JJ Kinahan says, \"because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.”<blockquote>然而，还有一个潜在的障碍：三角洲的激增以及随之而来的限制和/或封锁： 正如德美利证券（TD Ameritrade）的 JJ Kinahan 所说：“由于德尔塔变异毒株，在我们对此有更多了解之前，我认为它会给我们带来不同的压力，我们会说，好吧，现在我们处于观望模式。很高兴看到就业岗位和经济都在增长--希望在下一份就业报告中，我们就能知道经济能否继续以这样的速度增长。现在看来会的。”</blockquote> Do others agree? Below we have excerpted some analyst and strategist reactions to today's report.<blockquote>其他人同意吗？下面我们摘录了一些分析师和策略师对今天报告的反应。</blockquote> Katherine Judge, CIBC Capital Markets:<blockquote>CIBC 资本市场 Katherine Judge：</blockquote> “With many states set to see the unemployment benefit top-ups expire in early September, healthy job gains should continue ahead, in line with elevated job openings. This print should be enough to allow the Fed to announce an early 2022 tapering of QE at the September meeting.” Chris Turner, head of foreign exchange strategy at ING Bank:<blockquote>“由于许多州的失业救济金补贴将于 9 月初到期，健康的就业增长应与职位空缺的增加保持一致。这一数字应足以让美联储在 9 月份的会议上宣布在 2022 年初缩减量化宽松政策。”荷兰国际集团银行外汇策略主管克里斯·特纳：</blockquote> The stronger-than-expected jobs report makes it more likely that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell may “drop heavy hints” at the Jackson Hole Symposium later this month, that the central bank may prepare to start tapering over subsequent months. The data is positive for the dollar versus the low-yielders such as the yen and euro. Still, the outlook for the greenback “should not necessarily damage the risk environment....Unless U.S. 10 year yields spike aggressively, high yield EM currencies should see demand on dips” Carl Riccadonna, Bloomberg Intelligence economist:<blockquote>强于预期的就业报告使得美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）更有可能在本月晚些时候的杰克逊霍尔研讨会上 “暗示”美联储可能准备在未来几个月开始缩减规模。该数据对美元兑日元和欧元等低收益货币有利。尽管如此，美元的前景“不一定会损害风险环境……除非美国 10 年期国债收益率大幅飙升，否则高收益新兴市场货币应该会在下跌时看到需求”。彭博情报经济学家卡尔·里卡多纳：</blockquote> The jobs report is “sturdy, but not as strong as it looks.” In addition to the modest fade in the pace of private-sector hiring (703,000 in July vs. 769,000 in June), much of the July gain occurred in the tenuous leisure and hospitality sector -- and that could easily reverse due to Covid-19, he said. This already appears to be evident in metrics such as OpenTable bookings. “So if we look at private-sector hiring outside of leisure and hospitality, today’s reported gain was 323,000, a bit slower than the prior month’s 375,000. This tells us that underlying economic momentum is steady-state, not accelerating.” Neil Dutta, economist at Renaissance Macro:<blockquote>就业报告 “稳健，但并不像看起来那么强劲”。他说，除了私营部门招聘速度略有放缓（7 月份为 703,000 人，6 月份为 769,000 人）之外，7 月份的大部分增长都发生在脆弱的休闲和酒店业，而且由于 Covid-19，这种情况很容易逆转。这在OpenTable预订等指标中似乎已经很明显了。“因此，如果我们看看休闲和酒店业以外的私营部门招聘情况，今天报告的增幅为 32.3 万人，略低于上月的 37.5 万人。这告诉我们，潜在的经济动能是稳定的，而不是加速的。”Neil Dutta，Renaissance Macro 经济学家:</blockquote> The FOMC could upgrade its language in the September statement to say that the economy is “on track for substantial further progress,” which would lead to a declaration of achievement of substantial further progress in “November at the earliest.”&nbsp; Tapering, in that event, could begin as early as December. JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade:<blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会可能会在 9 月份的声明中升级措辞，称经济 “有望取得实质性进一步进展”，这将导致 “最早在 11 月 ”宣布取得实质性进一步进展。在这种情况下，缩减规模最早可能在 12 月开始。德美利证券首席市场策略师 JJ Kinahan：</blockquote> “It’s a great number, there’s no way around that, it really is an impressive number. But I think if we didn’t have this new delta variant coming up, the conversation we’d be having is, is this inflationary, does this mean we’ll go into a taper, etc. But because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.” Roberto Perli, head of global policy research at Cornerstone Macro:<blockquote>“这是一个很棒的数字，这是无法回避的，这真的是一个令人印象深刻的数字。但我认为，如果我们没有新的德尔塔变异毒株，我们会讨论的话题是，这是否会导致通货膨胀，这是否意味着我们将进入缩减通货膨胀等等。但由于德尔塔变异毒株，在我们对此有更多了解之前，我认为它会给我们带来不同的压力，我们会说，好吧，现在我们处于观望模式。很高兴看到就业和经济都在发展--希望在下一份就业报告中，我们就能知道经济能否继续以这样的速度发展。现在看来会的。”Cornerstone Macro 全球政策研究主管 Roberto Perli：</blockquote> “The Fed will have one more employment report before the September meeting. Assuming it will be good as well, a plausible base case is for the FOMC to say at the September meeting that the labor market continued to make good progress, and if the progress continues at the recent pace the committee will be in a position to start tapering its asset purchases over the next few months.&nbsp; That would put the onset of tapering in late December or early January.“So bottom line I think the timeline remains the same.&nbsp; It would be hard to start tapering in September because it would go against both the ‘coming meetings’ (plural) language in the July statement and the notion that the FOMC would provide ample notice before actually starting tapering.” <blockquote>“美联储将在9月会议前再发布一份就业报告。假设情况也不错，那么一个合理的基本情况是，联邦公开市场委员会在 9 月份的会议上表示，劳动力市场继续取得良好进展，如果进展继续以最近的速度进行，委员会将能够在未来几个月内开始缩减资产购买规模。这将使缩减资产购买规模的开始时间在 12 月底或 1 月初。“因此，我认为时间表保持不变。9 月份开始缩减资产规模很难，因为这既违背了 7 月份声明中'即将召开会议'（复数）的措辞，也违背了联邦公开市场委员会在实际开始缩减资产规模之前会提供充分通知的理念。”</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n\"Enough For Tapering To Start\": Wall Street Reacts To A Blockbuster Jobs Report<blockquote>“足以开始缩减规模”：华尔街对重磅就业报告的反应</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzerohedge2021-08-06 22:12\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nWith the jobs report coming in at just shy of 1 million jobs on the establishment survey (and just over 1 million on the Household survey), with strong job creation, a big drop in unemployment rate, higher employment-to-population, rising wages and hours worked, and favorable revisions, consensus - at least judging by the market reaction - is that we have entered the \"substantial progress\" phase, greenlighting a tapering signal by the Fed at the end of the month during the Jackson Hole symposium.<blockquote>就业报告显示，企业调查中的就业岗位略低于 100 万个（家庭调查中的就业岗位略高于 100 万个），就业创造强劲，失业率大幅下降，就业人口比率上升，工资和工作时间上涨，以及有利的修正，至少从市场反应来看，共识是我们已经进入了“实质性进展”阶段，为美联储在本月底杰克逊霍尔研讨会期间发出的缩减规模信号开了绿灯。</blockquote> And yet there is one potential hurdle: the Delta surge and ensuing restrictions and/or lockdowns: as TD Ameritrade's JJ Kinahan says, \"because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.”<blockquote>然而，还有一个潜在的障碍：三角洲的激增以及随之而来的限制和/或封锁： 正如德美利证券（TD Ameritrade）的 JJ Kinahan 所说：“由于德尔塔变异毒株，在我们对此有更多了解之前，我认为它会给我们带来不同的压力，我们会说，好吧，现在我们处于观望模式。很高兴看到就业岗位和经济都在增长--希望在下一份就业报告中，我们就能知道经济能否继续以这样的速度增长。现在看来会的。”</blockquote> Do others agree? Below we have excerpted some analyst and strategist reactions to today's report.<blockquote>其他人同意吗？下面我们摘录了一些分析师和策略师对今天报告的反应。</blockquote> Katherine Judge, CIBC Capital Markets:<blockquote>CIBC 资本市场 Katherine Judge：</blockquote> “With many states set to see the unemployment benefit top-ups expire in early September, healthy job gains should continue ahead, in line with elevated job openings. This print should be enough to allow the Fed to announce an early 2022 tapering of QE at the September meeting.” Chris Turner, head of foreign exchange strategy at ING Bank:<blockquote>“由于许多州的失业救济金补贴将于 9 月初到期，健康的就业增长应与职位空缺的增加保持一致。这一数字应足以让美联储在 9 月份的会议上宣布在 2022 年初缩减量化宽松政策。”荷兰国际集团银行外汇策略主管克里斯·特纳：</blockquote> The stronger-than-expected jobs report makes it more likely that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell may “drop heavy hints” at the Jackson Hole Symposium later this month, that the central bank may prepare to start tapering over subsequent months. The data is positive for the dollar versus the low-yielders such as the yen and euro. Still, the outlook for the greenback “should not necessarily damage the risk environment....Unless U.S. 10 year yields spike aggressively, high yield EM currencies should see demand on dips” Carl Riccadonna, Bloomberg Intelligence economist:<blockquote>强于预期的就业报告使得美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）更有可能在本月晚些时候的杰克逊霍尔研讨会上 “暗示”美联储可能准备在未来几个月开始缩减规模。该数据对美元兑日元和欧元等低收益货币有利。尽管如此，美元的前景“不一定会损害风险环境……除非美国 10 年期国债收益率大幅飙升，否则高收益新兴市场货币应该会在下跌时看到需求”。彭博情报经济学家卡尔·里卡多纳：</blockquote> The jobs report is “sturdy, but not as strong as it looks.” In addition to the modest fade in the pace of private-sector hiring (703,000 in July vs. 769,000 in June), much of the July gain occurred in the tenuous leisure and hospitality sector -- and that could easily reverse due to Covid-19, he said. This already appears to be evident in metrics such as OpenTable bookings. “So if we look at private-sector hiring outside of leisure and hospitality, today’s reported gain was 323,000, a bit slower than the prior month’s 375,000. This tells us that underlying economic momentum is steady-state, not accelerating.” Neil Dutta, economist at Renaissance Macro:<blockquote>就业报告 “稳健，但并不像看起来那么强劲”。他说，除了私营部门招聘速度略有放缓（7 月份为 703,000 人，6 月份为 769,000 人）之外，7 月份的大部分增长都发生在脆弱的休闲和酒店业，而且由于 Covid-19，这种情况很容易逆转。这在OpenTable预订等指标中似乎已经很明显了。“因此，如果我们看看休闲和酒店业以外的私营部门招聘情况，今天报告的增幅为 32.3 万人，略低于上月的 37.5 万人。这告诉我们，潜在的经济动能是稳定的，而不是加速的。”Neil Dutta，Renaissance Macro 经济学家:</blockquote> The FOMC could upgrade its language in the September statement to say that the economy is “on track for substantial further progress,” which would lead to a declaration of achievement of substantial further progress in “November at the earliest.”&nbsp; Tapering, in that event, could begin as early as December. JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade:<blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会可能会在 9 月份的声明中升级措辞，称经济 “有望取得实质性进一步进展”，这将导致 “最早在 11 月 ”宣布取得实质性进一步进展。在这种情况下，缩减规模最早可能在 12 月开始。德美利证券首席市场策略师 JJ Kinahan：</blockquote> “It’s a great number, there’s no way around that, it really is an impressive number. But I think if we didn’t have this new delta variant coming up, the conversation we’d be having is, is this inflationary, does this mean we’ll go into a taper, etc. But because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.” Roberto Perli, head of global policy research at Cornerstone Macro:<blockquote>“这是一个很棒的数字，这是无法回避的，这真的是一个令人印象深刻的数字。但我认为，如果我们没有新的德尔塔变异毒株，我们会讨论的话题是，这是否会导致通货膨胀，这是否意味着我们将进入缩减通货膨胀等等。但由于德尔塔变异毒株，在我们对此有更多了解之前，我认为它会给我们带来不同的压力，我们会说，好吧，现在我们处于观望模式。很高兴看到就业和经济都在发展--希望在下一份就业报告中，我们就能知道经济能否继续以这样的速度发展。现在看来会的。”Cornerstone Macro 全球政策研究主管 Roberto Perli：</blockquote> “The Fed will have one more employment report before the September meeting. Assuming it will be good as well, a plausible base case is for the FOMC to say at the September meeting that the labor market continued to make good progress, and if the progress continues at the recent pace the committee will be in a position to start tapering its asset purchases over the next few months.&nbsp; That would put the onset of tapering in late December or early January.“So bottom line I think the timeline remains the same.&nbsp; It would be hard to start tapering in September because it would go against both the ‘coming meetings’ (plural) language in the July statement and the notion that the FOMC would provide ample notice before actually starting tapering.” <blockquote>“美联储将在9月会议前再发布一份就业报告。假设情况也不错，那么一个合理的基本情况是，联邦公开市场委员会在 9 月份的会议上表示，劳动力市场继续取得良好进展，如果进展继续以最近的速度进行，委员会将能够在未来几个月内开始缩减资产购买规模。这将使缩减资产购买规模的开始时间在 12 月底或 1 月初。“因此，我认为时间表保持不变。9 月份开始缩减资产规模很难，因为这既违背了 7 月份声明中'即将召开会议'（复数）的措辞，也违背了联邦公开市场委员会在实际开始缩减资产规模之前会提供充分通知的理念。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/enough-tapering-start-wall-street-reacts-blockbuster-jobs-report\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/enough-tapering-start-wall-street-reacts-blockbuster-jobs-report","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1145298738","content_text":"With the jobs report coming in at just shy of 1 million jobs on the establishment survey (and just over 1 million on the Household survey), with strong job creation, a big drop in unemployment rate, higher employment-to-population, rising wages and hours worked, and favorable revisions, consensus - at least judging by the market reaction - is that we have entered the \"substantial progress\" phase, greenlighting a tapering signal by the Fed at the end of the month during the Jackson Hole symposium.\nAnd yet there is one potential hurdle: the Delta surge and ensuing restrictions and/or lockdowns: as TD Ameritrade's JJ Kinahan says, \"because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.”\nDo others agree? Below we have excerpted some analyst and strategist reactions to today's report.\nKatherine Judge, CIBC Capital Markets:\n\n“With many states set to see the unemployment benefit top-ups expire in early September, healthy job gains should continue ahead, in line with elevated job openings. This print should be enough to allow the Fed to announce an early 2022 tapering of QE at the September meeting.”\n\nChris Turner, head of foreign exchange strategy at ING Bank:\n\nThe stronger-than-expected jobs report makes it more likely that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell may “drop heavy hints” at the Jackson Hole Symposium later this month, that the central bank may prepare to start tapering over subsequent months. The data is positive for the dollar versus the low-yielders such as the yen and euro. Still, the outlook for the greenback “should not necessarily damage the risk environment....Unless U.S. 10 year yields spike aggressively, high yield EM currencies should see demand on dips”\n\nCarl Riccadonna, Bloomberg Intelligence economist:\n\nThe jobs report is “sturdy, but not as strong as it looks.” In addition to the modest fade in the pace of private-sector hiring (703,000 in July vs. 769,000 in June), much of the July gain occurred in the tenuous leisure and hospitality sector -- and that could easily reverse due to Covid-19, he said. This already appears to be evident in metrics such as OpenTable bookings. “So if we look at private-sector hiring outside of leisure and hospitality, today’s reported gain was 323,000, a bit slower than the prior month’s 375,000.\nThis tells us that underlying economic momentum is steady-state, not accelerating.”\n\nNeil Dutta, economist at Renaissance Macro:\n\nThe FOMC could upgrade its language in the September statement to say that the economy is “on track for substantial further progress,” which would lead to a declaration of achievement of substantial further progress in “November at the earliest.”  Tapering, in that event, could begin as early as December.\n\nJJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade:\n\n“It’s a great number, there’s no way around that, it really is an impressive number. But I think if we didn’t have this new delta variant coming up, the conversation we’d be having is, is this inflationary, does this mean we’ll go into a taper, etc. But because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.”\n\nRoberto Perli, head of global policy research at Cornerstone Macro:\n\n“The Fed will have one more employment report before the September meeting. Assuming it will be good as well, a plausible base case is for the FOMC to say at the September meeting that the labor market continued to make good progress, and if the progress continues at the recent pace the committee will be in a position to start tapering its asset purchases over the next few months.  That would put the onset of tapering in late December or early January.“So bottom line I think the timeline remains the same.  It would be hard to start tapering in September because it would go against both the ‘coming meetings’ (plural) language in the July statement and the notion that the FOMC would provide ample notice before actually starting tapering.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5452552,"gmtCreate":1628302070130,"gmtModify":1635157988413,"authorId":4087706766405160,"author":{"id":4087706766405160,"idStr":"4087706766405160","authorId":4087706766405160,"name":"rogue66","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d05ef0a0c416c4b001aaa84f3a84e3fb","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":893710959,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"taper soon","text":"taper soon","html":"taper soon"},{"id":5452671,"gmtCreate":1628302808880,"gmtModify":1635157976324,"authorId":3584321582315403,"author":{"id":3584321582315403,"idStr":"3584321582315403","authorId":3584321582315403,"name":"43175c63","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":893710959,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"💪🏼","text":"💪🏼","html":"💪🏼"},{"id":5452808,"gmtCreate":1628303631840,"gmtModify":1635157962754,"authorId":3581565649060536,"author":{"id":3581565649060536,"idStr":"3581565649060536","authorId":3581565649060536,"name":"StockWatcher","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/648f98c0d0a1e2a6bdf618a2b6cf1878","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":893710959,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Put Put car On the way","text":"Put Put car On the way","html":"Put Put car On the way"},{"id":5453754,"gmtCreate":1628309355255,"gmtModify":1635157873563,"authorId":3581063216443091,"author":{"id":3581063216443091,"idStr":"3581063216443091","authorId":3581063216443091,"name":"老Uncle","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef0828d104dbb47c9e2122177cf0d3b5","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":893710959,"type":1,"supId":5452552,"prevId":0,"content":"😬😬😬","text":"😬😬😬","html":"😬😬😬"},{"id":5453757,"gmtCreate":1628309362571,"gmtModify":1635157873187,"authorId":3581063216443091,"author":{"id":3581063216443091,"idStr":"3581063216443091","authorId":3581063216443091,"name":"老Uncle","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef0828d104dbb47c9e2122177cf0d3b5","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":893710959,"type":1,"supId":5452671,"prevId":0,"content":"🔥🔥👍🏻","text":"🔥🔥👍🏻","html":"🔥🔥👍🏻"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":893797163,"gmtCreate":1628299291252,"gmtModify":1633751876971,"author":{"id":"3583636949773464","authorId":"3583636949773464","name":"Athenwyk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3583636949773464","idStr":"3583636949773464"},"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/893797163","repostId":1145298738,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1145298738","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628259150,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1145298738?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-06 22:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"\"Enough For Tapering To Start\": Wall Street Reacts To A Blockbuster Jobs Report<blockquote>“足以开始缩减规模”：华尔街对重磅就业报告的反应</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1145298738","media":"zerohedge","summary":"With the jobs report coming in at just shy of 1 million jobs on the establishment survey (and just o","content":"With the jobs report coming in at just shy of 1 million jobs on the establishment survey (and just over 1 million on the Household survey), with strong job creation, a big drop in unemployment rate, higher employment-to-population, rising wages and hours worked, and favorable revisions, consensus - at least judging by the market reaction - is that we have entered the \"substantial progress\" phase, greenlighting a tapering signal by the Fed at the end of the month during the Jackson Hole symposium.<blockquote>就业报告显示，企业调查中的就业岗位略低于 100 万个（家庭调查中的就业岗位略高于 100 万个），就业创造强劲，失业率大幅下降，就业人口比率上升，工资和工作时间上涨，以及有利的修正，至少从市场反应来看，共识是我们已经进入了“实质性进展”阶段，为美联储在本月底杰克逊霍尔研讨会期间发出的缩减规模信号开了绿灯。</blockquote> And yet there is one potential hurdle: the Delta surge and ensuing restrictions and/or lockdowns: as TD Ameritrade's JJ Kinahan says, \"because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.”<blockquote>然而，还有一个潜在的障碍：三角洲的激增以及随之而来的限制和/或封锁： 正如德美利证券（TD Ameritrade）的 JJ Kinahan 所说：“由于德尔塔变异毒株，在我们对此有更多了解之前，我认为它会给我们带来不同的压力，我们会说，好吧，现在我们处于观望模式。很高兴看到就业岗位和经济都在增长--希望在下一份就业报告中，我们就能知道经济能否继续以这样的速度增长。现在看来会的。”</blockquote> Do others agree? Below we have excerpted some analyst and strategist reactions to today's report.<blockquote>其他人同意吗？下面我们摘录了一些分析师和策略师对今天报告的反应。</blockquote> Katherine Judge, CIBC Capital Markets:<blockquote>CIBC 资本市场 Katherine Judge：</blockquote> “With many states set to see the unemployment benefit top-ups expire in early September, healthy job gains should continue ahead, in line with elevated job openings. This print should be enough to allow the Fed to announce an early 2022 tapering of QE at the September meeting.” Chris Turner, head of foreign exchange strategy at ING Bank:<blockquote>“由于许多州的失业救济金补贴将于 9 月初到期，健康的就业增长应与职位空缺的增加保持一致。这一数字应足以让美联储在 9 月份的会议上宣布在 2022 年初缩减量化宽松政策。”荷兰国际集团银行外汇策略主管克里斯·特纳：</blockquote> The stronger-than-expected jobs report makes it more likely that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell may “drop heavy hints” at the Jackson Hole Symposium later this month, that the central bank may prepare to start tapering over subsequent months. The data is positive for the dollar versus the low-yielders such as the yen and euro. Still, the outlook for the greenback “should not necessarily damage the risk environment....Unless U.S. 10 year yields spike aggressively, high yield EM currencies should see demand on dips” Carl Riccadonna, Bloomberg Intelligence economist:<blockquote>强于预期的就业报告使得美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）更有可能在本月晚些时候的杰克逊霍尔研讨会上 “暗示”美联储可能准备在未来几个月开始缩减规模。该数据对美元兑日元和欧元等低收益货币有利。尽管如此，美元的前景“不一定会损害风险环境……除非美国 10 年期国债收益率大幅飙升，否则高收益新兴市场货币应该会在下跌时看到需求”。彭博情报经济学家卡尔·里卡多纳：</blockquote> The jobs report is “sturdy, but not as strong as it looks.” In addition to the modest fade in the pace of private-sector hiring (703,000 in July vs. 769,000 in June), much of the July gain occurred in the tenuous leisure and hospitality sector -- and that could easily reverse due to Covid-19, he said. This already appears to be evident in metrics such as OpenTable bookings. “So if we look at private-sector hiring outside of leisure and hospitality, today’s reported gain was 323,000, a bit slower than the prior month’s 375,000. This tells us that underlying economic momentum is steady-state, not accelerating.” Neil Dutta, economist at Renaissance Macro:<blockquote>就业报告 “稳健，但并不像看起来那么强劲”。他说，除了私营部门招聘速度略有放缓（7 月份为 703,000 人，6 月份为 769,000 人）之外，7 月份的大部分增长都发生在脆弱的休闲和酒店业，而且由于 Covid-19，这种情况很容易逆转。这在OpenTable预订等指标中似乎已经很明显了。“因此，如果我们看看休闲和酒店业以外的私营部门招聘情况，今天报告的增幅为 32.3 万人，略低于上月的 37.5 万人。这告诉我们，潜在的经济动能是稳定的，而不是加速的。”Neil Dutta，Renaissance Macro 经济学家:</blockquote> The FOMC could upgrade its language in the September statement to say that the economy is “on track for substantial further progress,” which would lead to a declaration of achievement of substantial further progress in “November at the earliest.”&nbsp; Tapering, in that event, could begin as early as December. JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade:<blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会可能会在 9 月份的声明中升级措辞，称经济 “有望取得实质性进一步进展”，这将导致 “最早在 11 月 ”宣布取得实质性进一步进展。在这种情况下，缩减规模最早可能在 12 月开始。德美利证券首席市场策略师 JJ Kinahan：</blockquote> “It’s a great number, there’s no way around that, it really is an impressive number. But I think if we didn’t have this new delta variant coming up, the conversation we’d be having is, is this inflationary, does this mean we’ll go into a taper, etc. But because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.” Roberto Perli, head of global policy research at Cornerstone Macro:<blockquote>“这是一个很棒的数字，这是无法回避的，这真的是一个令人印象深刻的数字。但我认为，如果我们没有新的德尔塔变异毒株，我们会讨论的话题是，这是否会导致通货膨胀，这是否意味着我们将进入缩减通货膨胀等等。但由于德尔塔变异毒株，在我们对此有更多了解之前，我认为它会给我们带来不同的压力，我们会说，好吧，现在我们处于观望模式。很高兴看到就业和经济都在发展--希望在下一份就业报告中，我们就能知道经济能否继续以这样的速度发展。现在看来会的。”Cornerstone Macro 全球政策研究主管 Roberto Perli：</blockquote> “The Fed will have one more employment report before the September meeting. Assuming it will be good as well, a plausible base case is for the FOMC to say at the September meeting that the labor market continued to make good progress, and if the progress continues at the recent pace the committee will be in a position to start tapering its asset purchases over the next few months.&nbsp; That would put the onset of tapering in late December or early January.“So bottom line I think the timeline remains the same.&nbsp; It would be hard to start tapering in September because it would go against both the ‘coming meetings’ (plural) language in the July statement and the notion that the FOMC would provide ample notice before actually starting tapering.” <blockquote>“美联储将在9月会议前再发布一份就业报告。假设情况也不错，那么一个合理的基本情况是，联邦公开市场委员会在 9 月份的会议上表示，劳动力市场继续取得良好进展，如果进展继续以最近的速度进行，委员会将能够在未来几个月内开始缩减资产购买规模。这将使缩减资产购买规模的开始时间在 12 月底或 1 月初。“因此，我认为时间表保持不变。9 月份开始缩减资产规模很难，因为这既违背了 7 月份声明中'即将召开会议'（复数）的措辞，也违背了联邦公开市场委员会在实际开始缩减资产规模之前会提供充分通知的理念。”</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.”<blockquote>然而，还有一个潜在的障碍：三角洲的激增以及随之而来的限制和/或封锁： 正如德美利证券（TD Ameritrade）的 JJ Kinahan 所说：“由于德尔塔变异毒株，在我们对此有更多了解之前，我认为它会给我们带来不同的压力，我们会说，好吧，现在我们处于观望模式。很高兴看到就业岗位和经济都在增长--希望在下一份就业报告中，我们就能知道经济能否继续以这样的速度增长。现在看来会的。”</blockquote> Do others agree? Below we have excerpted some analyst and strategist reactions to today's report.<blockquote>其他人同意吗？下面我们摘录了一些分析师和策略师对今天报告的反应。</blockquote> Katherine Judge, CIBC Capital Markets:<blockquote>CIBC 资本市场 Katherine Judge：</blockquote> “With many states set to see the unemployment benefit top-ups expire in early September, healthy job gains should continue ahead, in line with elevated job openings. This print should be enough to allow the Fed to announce an early 2022 tapering of QE at the September meeting.” Chris Turner, head of foreign exchange strategy at ING Bank:<blockquote>“由于许多州的失业救济金补贴将于 9 月初到期，健康的就业增长应与职位空缺的增加保持一致。这一数字应足以让美联储在 9 月份的会议上宣布在 2022 年初缩减量化宽松政策。”荷兰国际集团银行外汇策略主管克里斯·特纳：</blockquote> The stronger-than-expected jobs report makes it more likely that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell may “drop heavy hints” at the Jackson Hole Symposium later this month, that the central bank may prepare to start tapering over subsequent months. The data is positive for the dollar versus the low-yielders such as the yen and euro. Still, the outlook for the greenback “should not necessarily damage the risk environment....Unless U.S. 10 year yields spike aggressively, high yield EM currencies should see demand on dips” Carl Riccadonna, Bloomberg Intelligence economist:<blockquote>强于预期的就业报告使得美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）更有可能在本月晚些时候的杰克逊霍尔研讨会上 “暗示”美联储可能准备在未来几个月开始缩减规模。该数据对美元兑日元和欧元等低收益货币有利。尽管如此，美元的前景“不一定会损害风险环境……除非美国 10 年期国债收益率大幅飙升，否则高收益新兴市场货币应该会在下跌时看到需求”。彭博情报经济学家卡尔·里卡多纳：</blockquote> The jobs report is “sturdy, but not as strong as it looks.” In addition to the modest fade in the pace of private-sector hiring (703,000 in July vs. 769,000 in June), much of the July gain occurred in the tenuous leisure and hospitality sector -- and that could easily reverse due to Covid-19, he said. This already appears to be evident in metrics such as OpenTable bookings. “So if we look at private-sector hiring outside of leisure and hospitality, today’s reported gain was 323,000, a bit slower than the prior month’s 375,000. This tells us that underlying economic momentum is steady-state, not accelerating.” Neil Dutta, economist at Renaissance Macro:<blockquote>就业报告 “稳健，但并不像看起来那么强劲”。他说，除了私营部门招聘速度略有放缓（7 月份为 703,000 人，6 月份为 769,000 人）之外，7 月份的大部分增长都发生在脆弱的休闲和酒店业，而且由于 Covid-19，这种情况很容易逆转。这在OpenTable预订等指标中似乎已经很明显了。“因此，如果我们看看休闲和酒店业以外的私营部门招聘情况，今天报告的增幅为 32.3 万人，略低于上月的 37.5 万人。这告诉我们，潜在的经济动能是稳定的，而不是加速的。”Neil Dutta，Renaissance Macro 经济学家:</blockquote> The FOMC could upgrade its language in the September statement to say that the economy is “on track for substantial further progress,” which would lead to a declaration of achievement of substantial further progress in “November at the earliest.”&nbsp; Tapering, in that event, could begin as early as December. JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade:<blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会可能会在 9 月份的声明中升级措辞，称经济 “有望取得实质性进一步进展”，这将导致 “最早在 11 月 ”宣布取得实质性进一步进展。在这种情况下，缩减规模最早可能在 12 月开始。德美利证券首席市场策略师 JJ Kinahan：</blockquote> “It’s a great number, there’s no way around that, it really is an impressive number. But I think if we didn’t have this new delta variant coming up, the conversation we’d be having is, is this inflationary, does this mean we’ll go into a taper, etc. But because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.” Roberto Perli, head of global policy research at Cornerstone Macro:<blockquote>“这是一个很棒的数字，这是无法回避的，这真的是一个令人印象深刻的数字。但我认为，如果我们没有新的德尔塔变异毒株，我们会讨论的话题是，这是否会导致通货膨胀，这是否意味着我们将进入缩减通货膨胀等等。但由于德尔塔变异毒株，在我们对此有更多了解之前，我认为它会给我们带来不同的压力，我们会说，好吧，现在我们处于观望模式。很高兴看到就业和经济都在发展--希望在下一份就业报告中，我们就能知道经济能否继续以这样的速度发展。现在看来会的。”Cornerstone Macro 全球政策研究主管 Roberto Perli：</blockquote> “The Fed will have one more employment report before the September meeting. Assuming it will be good as well, a plausible base case is for the FOMC to say at the September meeting that the labor market continued to make good progress, and if the progress continues at the recent pace the committee will be in a position to start tapering its asset purchases over the next few months.&nbsp; That would put the onset of tapering in late December or early January.“So bottom line I think the timeline remains the same.&nbsp; It would be hard to start tapering in September because it would go against both the ‘coming meetings’ (plural) language in the July statement and the notion that the FOMC would provide ample notice before actually starting tapering.” <blockquote>“美联储将在9月会议前再发布一份就业报告。假设情况也不错，那么一个合理的基本情况是，联邦公开市场委员会在 9 月份的会议上表示，劳动力市场继续取得良好进展，如果进展继续以最近的速度进行，委员会将能够在未来几个月内开始缩减资产购买规模。这将使缩减资产购买规模的开始时间在 12 月底或 1 月初。“因此，我认为时间表保持不变。9 月份开始缩减资产规模很难，因为这既违背了 7 月份声明中'即将召开会议'（复数）的措辞，也违背了联邦公开市场委员会在实际开始缩减资产规模之前会提供充分通知的理念。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/enough-tapering-start-wall-street-reacts-blockbuster-jobs-report\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/enough-tapering-start-wall-street-reacts-blockbuster-jobs-report","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1145298738","content_text":"With the jobs report coming in at just shy of 1 million jobs on the establishment survey (and just over 1 million on the Household survey), with strong job creation, a big drop in unemployment rate, higher employment-to-population, rising wages and hours worked, and favorable revisions, consensus - at least judging by the market reaction - is that we have entered the \"substantial progress\" phase, greenlighting a tapering signal by the Fed at the end of the month during the Jackson Hole symposium.\nAnd yet there is one potential hurdle: the Delta surge and ensuing restrictions and/or lockdowns: as TD Ameritrade's JJ Kinahan says, \"because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.”\nDo others agree? Below we have excerpted some analyst and strategist reactions to today's report.\nKatherine Judge, CIBC Capital Markets:\n\n“With many states set to see the unemployment benefit top-ups expire in early September, healthy job gains should continue ahead, in line with elevated job openings. This print should be enough to allow the Fed to announce an early 2022 tapering of QE at the September meeting.”\n\nChris Turner, head of foreign exchange strategy at ING Bank:\n\nThe stronger-than-expected jobs report makes it more likely that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell may “drop heavy hints” at the Jackson Hole Symposium later this month, that the central bank may prepare to start tapering over subsequent months. The data is positive for the dollar versus the low-yielders such as the yen and euro. Still, the outlook for the greenback “should not necessarily damage the risk environment....Unless U.S. 10 year yields spike aggressively, high yield EM currencies should see demand on dips”\n\nCarl Riccadonna, Bloomberg Intelligence economist:\n\nThe jobs report is “sturdy, but not as strong as it looks.” In addition to the modest fade in the pace of private-sector hiring (703,000 in July vs. 769,000 in June), much of the July gain occurred in the tenuous leisure and hospitality sector -- and that could easily reverse due to Covid-19, he said. This already appears to be evident in metrics such as OpenTable bookings. “So if we look at private-sector hiring outside of leisure and hospitality, today’s reported gain was 323,000, a bit slower than the prior month’s 375,000.\nThis tells us that underlying economic momentum is steady-state, not accelerating.”\n\nNeil Dutta, economist at Renaissance Macro:\n\nThe FOMC could upgrade its language in the September statement to say that the economy is “on track for substantial further progress,” which would lead to a declaration of achievement of substantial further progress in “November at the earliest.”  Tapering, in that event, could begin as early as December.\n\nJJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade:\n\n“It’s a great number, there’s no way around that, it really is an impressive number. But I think if we didn’t have this new delta variant coming up, the conversation we’d be having is, is this inflationary, does this mean we’ll go into a taper, etc. But because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.”\n\nRoberto Perli, head of global policy research at Cornerstone Macro:\n\n“The Fed will have one more employment report before the September meeting. Assuming it will be good as well, a plausible base case is for the FOMC to say at the September meeting that the labor market continued to make good progress, and if the progress continues at the recent pace the committee will be in a position to start tapering its asset purchases over the next few months.  That would put the onset of tapering in late December or early January.“So bottom line I think the timeline remains the same.  It would be hard to start tapering in September because it would go against both the ‘coming meetings’ (plural) language in the July statement and the notion that the FOMC would provide ample notice before actually starting tapering.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5452112,"gmtCreate":1628299727203,"gmtModify":1635158033014,"authorId":3584018386160869,"author":{"id":3584018386160869,"idStr":"3584018386160869","authorId":3584018386160869,"name":"stephyK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56f12c47a520760d7d2b963baca0a3c3","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":893797163,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Like and comment ","text":"Like and comment ","html":"Like and comment "},{"id":5452681,"gmtCreate":1628302867989,"gmtModify":1635157975093,"authorId":3574026189533561,"author":{"id":3574026189533561,"idStr":"3574026189533561","authorId":3574026189533561,"name":"1PerCentClub","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/137535c7b4b589ca0f194fe3094266bf","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":893797163,"type":1,"supId":5452112,"prevId":0,"content":"Done","text":"Done","html":"Done"},{"id":5452814,"gmtCreate":1628303673047,"gmtModify":1635157962005,"authorId":3584333947690568,"author":{"id":3584333947690568,"idStr":"3584333947690568","authorId":3584333947690568,"name":"MrTig3r","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b99cfe4b0a492018c40761a39a193aa8","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"99a38ff64bfd44f891fd016771fc8f64-1","templateUuid":"99a38ff64bfd44f891fd016771fc8f64","name":"超级披露者","description":"在交易分享中开启超级披露","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/802f4014829adb4e63332fc230b97e42","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70e97d213ed3e4f4820224f1366d402f","redirectLinkEnabled":1,"redirectLinkType":1,"redirectLink":"https://www.itigerup.com/activity/forapp/star-investor","redirectLinkValidityFrom":1776816000000,"redirectLinkValidityTo":2156198400000,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2026.04.23","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1104,"isScarce":1,"effectEnabled":0,"wearingSort":1},"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[{"categoryType":1104,"badgeId":"99a38ff64bfd44f891fd016771fc8f64-1","name":"超级披露者","description":"在交易分享中开启超级披露","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70e97d213ed3e4f4820224f1366d402f","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/802f4014829adb4e63332fc230b97e42","isScarce":1,"plateColors":{"bgColor":{"dark":"#2f2a1f","tint":"#fcf6e5"},"fontColor":{"dark":"#dea95e","tint":"#885600"}},"effectEnabled":0,"redirectLinkEnabled":1,"redirectLinkType":1,"redirectLink":"https://www.itigerup.com/activity/forapp/star-investor","redirectLinkValidityFrom":1776816000000,"redirectLinkValidityTo":2156198400000,"sortingWeight":0,"wearable":1}]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":893797163,"type":1,"supId":5452112,"prevId":0,"content":"can taper faster?","text":"can taper faster?","html":"can taper faster?"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":893791027,"gmtCreate":1628299039269,"gmtModify":1633751882871,"author":{"id":"3571612770300673","authorId":"3571612770300673","name":"Rickyt089","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e75fb09fa53aa8d7db329d6599d40c1","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3571612770300673","idStr":"3571612770300673"},"htmlText":"&nbsp;Like pls","listText":"&nbsp;Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/893791027","repostId":1145298738,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1145298738","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628259150,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1145298738?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-06 22:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"\"Enough For Tapering To Start\": Wall Street Reacts To A Blockbuster Jobs Report<blockquote>“足以开始缩减规模”：华尔街对重磅就业报告的反应</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1145298738","media":"zerohedge","summary":"With the jobs report coming in at just shy of 1 million jobs on the establishment survey (and just o","content":"With the jobs report coming in at just shy of 1 million jobs on the establishment survey (and just over 1 million on the Household survey), with strong job creation, a big drop in unemployment rate, higher employment-to-population, rising wages and hours worked, and favorable revisions, consensus - at least judging by the market reaction - is that we have entered the \"substantial progress\" phase, greenlighting a tapering signal by the Fed at the end of the month during the Jackson Hole symposium.<blockquote>就业报告显示，企业调查中的就业岗位略低于 100 万个（家庭调查中的就业岗位略高于 100 万个），就业创造强劲，失业率大幅下降，就业人口比率上升，工资和工作时间上涨，以及有利的修正，至少从市场反应来看，共识是我们已经进入了“实质性进展”阶段，为美联储在本月底杰克逊霍尔研讨会期间发出的缩减规模信号开了绿灯。</blockquote> And yet there is one potential hurdle: the Delta surge and ensuing restrictions and/or lockdowns: as TD Ameritrade's JJ Kinahan says, \"because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.”<blockquote>然而，还有一个潜在的障碍：三角洲的激增以及随之而来的限制和/或封锁： 正如德美利证券（TD Ameritrade）的 JJ Kinahan 所说：“由于德尔塔变异毒株，在我们对此有更多了解之前，我认为它会给我们带来不同的压力，我们会说，好吧，现在我们处于观望模式。很高兴看到就业岗位和经济都在增长--希望在下一份就业报告中，我们就能知道经济能否继续以这样的速度增长。现在看来会的。”</blockquote> Do others agree? Below we have excerpted some analyst and strategist reactions to today's report.<blockquote>其他人同意吗？下面我们摘录了一些分析师和策略师对今天报告的反应。</blockquote> Katherine Judge, CIBC Capital Markets:<blockquote>CIBC 资本市场 Katherine Judge：</blockquote> “With many states set to see the unemployment benefit top-ups expire in early September, healthy job gains should continue ahead, in line with elevated job openings. This print should be enough to allow the Fed to announce an early 2022 tapering of QE at the September meeting.” Chris Turner, head of foreign exchange strategy at ING Bank:<blockquote>“由于许多州的失业救济金补贴将于 9 月初到期，健康的就业增长应与职位空缺的增加保持一致。这一数字应足以让美联储在 9 月份的会议上宣布在 2022 年初缩减量化宽松政策。”荷兰国际集团银行外汇策略主管克里斯·特纳：</blockquote> The stronger-than-expected jobs report makes it more likely that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell may “drop heavy hints” at the Jackson Hole Symposium later this month, that the central bank may prepare to start tapering over subsequent months. The data is positive for the dollar versus the low-yielders such as the yen and euro. Still, the outlook for the greenback “should not necessarily damage the risk environment....Unless U.S. 10 year yields spike aggressively, high yield EM currencies should see demand on dips” Carl Riccadonna, Bloomberg Intelligence economist:<blockquote>强于预期的就业报告使得美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）更有可能在本月晚些时候的杰克逊霍尔研讨会上 “暗示”美联储可能准备在未来几个月开始缩减规模。该数据对美元兑日元和欧元等低收益货币有利。尽管如此，美元的前景“不一定会损害风险环境……除非美国 10 年期国债收益率大幅飙升，否则高收益新兴市场货币应该会在下跌时看到需求”。彭博情报经济学家卡尔·里卡多纳：</blockquote> The jobs report is “sturdy, but not as strong as it looks.” In addition to the modest fade in the pace of private-sector hiring (703,000 in July vs. 769,000 in June), much of the July gain occurred in the tenuous leisure and hospitality sector -- and that could easily reverse due to Covid-19, he said. This already appears to be evident in metrics such as OpenTable bookings. “So if we look at private-sector hiring outside of leisure and hospitality, today’s reported gain was 323,000, a bit slower than the prior month’s 375,000. This tells us that underlying economic momentum is steady-state, not accelerating.” Neil Dutta, economist at Renaissance Macro:<blockquote>就业报告 “稳健，但并不像看起来那么强劲”。他说，除了私营部门招聘速度略有放缓（7 月份为 703,000 人，6 月份为 769,000 人）之外，7 月份的大部分增长都发生在脆弱的休闲和酒店业，而且由于 Covid-19，这种情况很容易逆转。这在OpenTable预订等指标中似乎已经很明显了。“因此，如果我们看看休闲和酒店业以外的私营部门招聘情况，今天报告的增幅为 32.3 万人，略低于上月的 37.5 万人。这告诉我们，潜在的经济动能是稳定的，而不是加速的。”Neil Dutta，Renaissance Macro 经济学家:</blockquote> The FOMC could upgrade its language in the September statement to say that the economy is “on track for substantial further progress,” which would lead to a declaration of achievement of substantial further progress in “November at the earliest.”&nbsp; Tapering, in that event, could begin as early as December. JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade:<blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会可能会在 9 月份的声明中升级措辞，称经济 “有望取得实质性进一步进展”，这将导致 “最早在 11 月 ”宣布取得实质性进一步进展。在这种情况下，缩减规模最早可能在 12 月开始。德美利证券首席市场策略师 JJ Kinahan：</blockquote> “It’s a great number, there’s no way around that, it really is an impressive number. But I think if we didn’t have this new delta variant coming up, the conversation we’d be having is, is this inflationary, does this mean we’ll go into a taper, etc. But because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.” Roberto Perli, head of global policy research at Cornerstone Macro:<blockquote>“这是一个很棒的数字，这是无法回避的，这真的是一个令人印象深刻的数字。但我认为，如果我们没有新的德尔塔变异毒株，我们会讨论的话题是，这是否会导致通货膨胀，这是否意味着我们将进入缩减通货膨胀等等。但由于德尔塔变异毒株，在我们对此有更多了解之前，我认为它会给我们带来不同的压力，我们会说，好吧，现在我们处于观望模式。很高兴看到就业和经济都在发展--希望在下一份就业报告中，我们就能知道经济能否继续以这样的速度发展。现在看来会的。”Cornerstone Macro 全球政策研究主管 Roberto Perli：</blockquote> “The Fed will have one more employment report before the September meeting. Assuming it will be good as well, a plausible base case is for the FOMC to say at the September meeting that the labor market continued to make good progress, and if the progress continues at the recent pace the committee will be in a position to start tapering its asset purchases over the next few months.&nbsp; That would put the onset of tapering in late December or early January.“So bottom line I think the timeline remains the same.&nbsp; It would be hard to start tapering in September because it would go against both the ‘coming meetings’ (plural) language in the July statement and the notion that the FOMC would provide ample notice before actually starting tapering.” <blockquote>“美联储将在9月会议前再发布一份就业报告。假设情况也不错，那么一个合理的基本情况是，联邦公开市场委员会在 9 月份的会议上表示，劳动力市场继续取得良好进展，如果进展继续以最近的速度进行，委员会将能够在未来几个月内开始缩减资产购买规模。这将使缩减资产购买规模的开始时间在 12 月底或 1 月初。“因此，我认为时间表保持不变。9 月份开始缩减资产规模很难，因为这既违背了 7 月份声明中'即将召开会议'（复数）的措辞，也违背了联邦公开市场委员会在实际开始缩减资产规模之前会提供充分通知的理念。”</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.”<blockquote>然而，还有一个潜在的障碍：三角洲的激增以及随之而来的限制和/或封锁： 正如德美利证券（TD Ameritrade）的 JJ Kinahan 所说：“由于德尔塔变异毒株，在我们对此有更多了解之前，我认为它会给我们带来不同的压力，我们会说，好吧，现在我们处于观望模式。很高兴看到就业岗位和经济都在增长--希望在下一份就业报告中，我们就能知道经济能否继续以这样的速度增长。现在看来会的。”</blockquote> Do others agree? Below we have excerpted some analyst and strategist reactions to today's report.<blockquote>其他人同意吗？下面我们摘录了一些分析师和策略师对今天报告的反应。</blockquote> Katherine Judge, CIBC Capital Markets:<blockquote>CIBC 资本市场 Katherine Judge：</blockquote> “With many states set to see the unemployment benefit top-ups expire in early September, healthy job gains should continue ahead, in line with elevated job openings. This print should be enough to allow the Fed to announce an early 2022 tapering of QE at the September meeting.” Chris Turner, head of foreign exchange strategy at ING Bank:<blockquote>“由于许多州的失业救济金补贴将于 9 月初到期，健康的就业增长应与职位空缺的增加保持一致。这一数字应足以让美联储在 9 月份的会议上宣布在 2022 年初缩减量化宽松政策。”荷兰国际集团银行外汇策略主管克里斯·特纳：</blockquote> The stronger-than-expected jobs report makes it more likely that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell may “drop heavy hints” at the Jackson Hole Symposium later this month, that the central bank may prepare to start tapering over subsequent months. The data is positive for the dollar versus the low-yielders such as the yen and euro. Still, the outlook for the greenback “should not necessarily damage the risk environment....Unless U.S. 10 year yields spike aggressively, high yield EM currencies should see demand on dips” Carl Riccadonna, Bloomberg Intelligence economist:<blockquote>强于预期的就业报告使得美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）更有可能在本月晚些时候的杰克逊霍尔研讨会上 “暗示”美联储可能准备在未来几个月开始缩减规模。该数据对美元兑日元和欧元等低收益货币有利。尽管如此，美元的前景“不一定会损害风险环境……除非美国 10 年期国债收益率大幅飙升，否则高收益新兴市场货币应该会在下跌时看到需求”。彭博情报经济学家卡尔·里卡多纳：</blockquote> The jobs report is “sturdy, but not as strong as it looks.” In addition to the modest fade in the pace of private-sector hiring (703,000 in July vs. 769,000 in June), much of the July gain occurred in the tenuous leisure and hospitality sector -- and that could easily reverse due to Covid-19, he said. This already appears to be evident in metrics such as OpenTable bookings. “So if we look at private-sector hiring outside of leisure and hospitality, today’s reported gain was 323,000, a bit slower than the prior month’s 375,000. This tells us that underlying economic momentum is steady-state, not accelerating.” Neil Dutta, economist at Renaissance Macro:<blockquote>就业报告 “稳健，但并不像看起来那么强劲”。他说，除了私营部门招聘速度略有放缓（7 月份为 703,000 人，6 月份为 769,000 人）之外，7 月份的大部分增长都发生在脆弱的休闲和酒店业，而且由于 Covid-19，这种情况很容易逆转。这在OpenTable预订等指标中似乎已经很明显了。“因此，如果我们看看休闲和酒店业以外的私营部门招聘情况，今天报告的增幅为 32.3 万人，略低于上月的 37.5 万人。这告诉我们，潜在的经济动能是稳定的，而不是加速的。”Neil Dutta，Renaissance Macro 经济学家:</blockquote> The FOMC could upgrade its language in the September statement to say that the economy is “on track for substantial further progress,” which would lead to a declaration of achievement of substantial further progress in “November at the earliest.”&nbsp; Tapering, in that event, could begin as early as December. JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade:<blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会可能会在 9 月份的声明中升级措辞，称经济 “有望取得实质性进一步进展”，这将导致 “最早在 11 月 ”宣布取得实质性进一步进展。在这种情况下，缩减规模最早可能在 12 月开始。德美利证券首席市场策略师 JJ Kinahan：</blockquote> “It’s a great number, there’s no way around that, it really is an impressive number. But I think if we didn’t have this new delta variant coming up, the conversation we’d be having is, is this inflationary, does this mean we’ll go into a taper, etc. But because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.” Roberto Perli, head of global policy research at Cornerstone Macro:<blockquote>“这是一个很棒的数字，这是无法回避的，这真的是一个令人印象深刻的数字。但我认为，如果我们没有新的德尔塔变异毒株，我们会讨论的话题是，这是否会导致通货膨胀，这是否意味着我们将进入缩减通货膨胀等等。但由于德尔塔变异毒株，在我们对此有更多了解之前，我认为它会给我们带来不同的压力，我们会说，好吧，现在我们处于观望模式。很高兴看到就业和经济都在发展--希望在下一份就业报告中，我们就能知道经济能否继续以这样的速度发展。现在看来会的。”Cornerstone Macro 全球政策研究主管 Roberto Perli：</blockquote> “The Fed will have one more employment report before the September meeting. Assuming it will be good as well, a plausible base case is for the FOMC to say at the September meeting that the labor market continued to make good progress, and if the progress continues at the recent pace the committee will be in a position to start tapering its asset purchases over the next few months.&nbsp; That would put the onset of tapering in late December or early January.“So bottom line I think the timeline remains the same.&nbsp; It would be hard to start tapering in September because it would go against both the ‘coming meetings’ (plural) language in the July statement and the notion that the FOMC would provide ample notice before actually starting tapering.” <blockquote>“美联储将在9月会议前再发布一份就业报告。假设情况也不错，那么一个合理的基本情况是，联邦公开市场委员会在 9 月份的会议上表示，劳动力市场继续取得良好进展，如果进展继续以最近的速度进行，委员会将能够在未来几个月内开始缩减资产购买规模。这将使缩减资产购买规模的开始时间在 12 月底或 1 月初。“因此，我认为时间表保持不变。9 月份开始缩减资产规模很难，因为这既违背了 7 月份声明中'即将召开会议'（复数）的措辞，也违背了联邦公开市场委员会在实际开始缩减资产规模之前会提供充分通知的理念。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/enough-tapering-start-wall-street-reacts-blockbuster-jobs-report\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/enough-tapering-start-wall-street-reacts-blockbuster-jobs-report","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1145298738","content_text":"With the jobs report coming in at just shy of 1 million jobs on the establishment survey (and just over 1 million on the Household survey), with strong job creation, a big drop in unemployment rate, higher employment-to-population, rising wages and hours worked, and favorable revisions, consensus - at least judging by the market reaction - is that we have entered the \"substantial progress\" phase, greenlighting a tapering signal by the Fed at the end of the month during the Jackson Hole symposium.\nAnd yet there is one potential hurdle: the Delta surge and ensuing restrictions and/or lockdowns: as TD Ameritrade's JJ Kinahan says, \"because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.”\nDo others agree? Below we have excerpted some analyst and strategist reactions to today's report.\nKatherine Judge, CIBC Capital Markets:\n\n“With many states set to see the unemployment benefit top-ups expire in early September, healthy job gains should continue ahead, in line with elevated job openings. This print should be enough to allow the Fed to announce an early 2022 tapering of QE at the September meeting.”\n\nChris Turner, head of foreign exchange strategy at ING Bank:\n\nThe stronger-than-expected jobs report makes it more likely that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell may “drop heavy hints” at the Jackson Hole Symposium later this month, that the central bank may prepare to start tapering over subsequent months. The data is positive for the dollar versus the low-yielders such as the yen and euro. Still, the outlook for the greenback “should not necessarily damage the risk environment....Unless U.S. 10 year yields spike aggressively, high yield EM currencies should see demand on dips”\n\nCarl Riccadonna, Bloomberg Intelligence economist:\n\nThe jobs report is “sturdy, but not as strong as it looks.” In addition to the modest fade in the pace of private-sector hiring (703,000 in July vs. 769,000 in June), much of the July gain occurred in the tenuous leisure and hospitality sector -- and that could easily reverse due to Covid-19, he said. This already appears to be evident in metrics such as OpenTable bookings. “So if we look at private-sector hiring outside of leisure and hospitality, today’s reported gain was 323,000, a bit slower than the prior month’s 375,000.\nThis tells us that underlying economic momentum is steady-state, not accelerating.”\n\nNeil Dutta, economist at Renaissance Macro:\n\nThe FOMC could upgrade its language in the September statement to say that the economy is “on track for substantial further progress,” which would lead to a declaration of achievement of substantial further progress in “November at the earliest.”  Tapering, in that event, could begin as early as December.\n\nJJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade:\n\n“It’s a great number, there’s no way around that, it really is an impressive number. But I think if we didn’t have this new delta variant coming up, the conversation we’d be having is, is this inflationary, does this mean we’ll go into a taper, etc. But because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.”\n\nRoberto Perli, head of global policy research at Cornerstone Macro:\n\n“The Fed will have one more employment report before the September meeting. Assuming it will be good as well, a plausible base case is for the FOMC to say at the September meeting that the labor market continued to make good progress, and if the progress continues at the recent pace the committee will be in a position to start tapering its asset purchases over the next few months.  That would put the onset of tapering in late December or early January.“So bottom line I think the timeline remains the same.  It would be hard to start tapering in September because it would go against both the ‘coming meetings’ (plural) language in the July statement and the notion that the FOMC would provide ample notice before actually starting tapering.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":525,"commentSize":53,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}