What's Next For The S&P 500: 10% Pullback or Rolling Correction?_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

What's Next For The S&P 500: 10% Pullback or Rolling Correction?

zacks2021-08-05

The market has become increasingly rational as this 16-month bull market matures, and index-based upside potential dwindles every additional percentage they rally. This is a stock picker's market. ...

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This is a stock picker's market. ...\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zacks.com/commentary/1773639/whats-next-for-the-sp-500-10-pullback-or-rolling-correction?&art_rec=home-home-investment_ideas_stocks-ID09-txt-1278004\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":null,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What's Next For The S&P 500: 10% Pullback or Rolling Correction?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat's Next For The S&P 500: 10% Pullback or Rolling Correction?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-05 18:08 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zacks.com/commentary/1773639/whats-next-for-the-sp-500-10-pullback-or-rolling-correction?&art_rec=home-home-investment_ideas_stocks-ID09-txt-1278004>zacks</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nThe market has become increasingly rational as this 16-month bull market matures, and index-based upside potential dwindles every additional percentage they rally. This is a stock picker's market. ...\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zacks.com/commentary/1773639/whats-next-for-the-sp-500-10-pullback-or-rolling-correction?&art_rec=home-home-investment_ideas_stocks-ID09-txt-1278004\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":".SPX","symbol_name":"S&P 500 Index","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.zacks.com/commentary/1773639/whats-next-for-the-sp-500-10-pullback-or-rolling-correction?&art_rec=home-home-investment_ideas_stocks-ID09-txt-1278004","article_id":"1121866583","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121866583","pubTimestamp":1628158108,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":null,"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"The market has become increasingly rational as this 16-month bull market matures, and index-based up","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"zacks.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"translate_title":"标普500的下一步是什么：10%的回调还是滚动回调？","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9},"content_text":"The market has become increasingly rational as this 16-month bull market matures, and index-based upside potential dwindles every additional percentage they rally. This is a stock picker's market. Quality stocks in well-positioned sectors will have much higher upside potential than most index-tracking ETFs for the remainder of 2021.\nThe S&P 500 hasn't seen a pullback of more than 5% so far this year and hasn't seen an actual correction (a pullback of 10% or more) since last September, which was quickly bought back up once that down 10% mark was reached. Despite this blue-chip benchmark not exhibiting any material sell-off, over 90% of its 505 components have experienced a 10% or larger correction in 2021 thus far.\nRotations In & Out of Growth & Value\nInvestors have kept the stock market's bull drive alive by rotating in and out of growth and value sectors as portfolio's position for the reopening at the beginning of the year, then turned back to growth stocks when the yield surge began to fade mid-May. This performance deviation is clearly illustrated below with Vanguard's growth-oriented ETF (VUG Quick QuoteVUG-Free Report) in the candlesticks and its value-focused ETF (VTV Quick QuoteVTV-Free Report) represented by the orange line.\n\nImage Source: TradingView\nThe year-to-date performance divergence between these two stock groupings illustrates that investors & traders are not buying indiscriminately. Meaning that judgment is going into every trade decision (aka stock picking), causing the market to deflate overstretched areas and reallocate into relatively cheaper spaces.\nAccelerating Annualized Returns\nThe S&P 500 has remained above an extraordinary 75% annualized return trendline for over 16 months now. Unfortunately, this rate of return isn't even close to sustainable.\nThe S&P 500 has averaged 12% upside a year over the past 3 decades. However, the average annual growth rate has aged like fine wine. This blue-chip benchmark has demonstrated an average annualized return of nearly 15% over the past decade, and if narrowed down to just the last 5 years, those annual gains go up to over 16%.\nThe stock market is experiencing swelling average annual gains because of the rapid acceleration of technology that continuously accelerates companies' and our economy's growth outlook. I expect to see continued annualized return acceleration over the next decade as tech makes up a growing portion of the public equity market. Nevertheless, a rolling 75% annualized return out of the S&P 500 isn't viable.\nThere may be too much sideline capital (a record 5.5 trillion in money market funds, according to Goldman Sachs (GS Quick QuoteGS-Free Report) for the market to entirely correct. Still, we are due for consolidation over the next few months, aka a rolling correction.\nWe are now entering a pivotal point in this maturing market cycle. Q2 earnings season has been tremendous thus far, with earnings soaring 105% on sales up over 22% from a year ago. 91% of the reported companies beating EPS estimates, and over 86% beat top-line projections. The richly valued tech sector has demonstrated awe-inspiring Q2 results, with 100% of them exceeding EPS estimates and over 96% beating on revenues, which seemingly justified frothy valuations in the space.\nHowever, analysts are projecting peak earnings growth to be in the rear-view mirror as Q2 earnings season wraps up, and at these rich multiples, valuation compression may be in order. Even with these exceptional quarterly reports and growing full-year estimates, we have seen an undue level of profit-pulling and defensive market positioning. The resurging COVID fears and anticipated shift in monetary policy also weigh on bullish sentiment.\nNevertheless, the enormous amount of cash on the bench is still being put to work, with every marginal dip being bought right back up. The national consumer savings rate in the US sits sizably above the last decade's average. Americans are not only participating in the public equity market at a record rate, but they also have plenty of liquidity to keep buying their favorite stocks.\nStocks remain the most attractive asset class, with negative real interest rates in the bond market, sky-high commodity prices, highly volatile crypto prices, and pricing pressure that most publicly traded companies have been able to easily transfer to their end-markets (illustrated by Q2 margin results).\nI expect to see a rolling correction, reflected by a consolidating stock market, instead of this 10%+ correction that analysts have been postulating. Range-bound indexes(less than 10% swings) for some time (month or two) would have the same valuation compressing effect as an all-out correction because earnings would be growing while prices remain muted, leading to shrinking P/E multiples (aka rolling correction).\nI foresee a sideways broader market trade until the Delta-variant is no longer a global concern. I remain bullish on stocks for the remaining 5 months of 2021 and am confident that the S&P 500 will close out the year higher than it is trading at today.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[{"id":899359383,"gmtCreate":1628162873742,"gmtModify":1633753048239,"author":{"id":"3574047516831606","authorId":"3574047516831606","name":"5d285913","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3574047516831606","idStr":"3574047516831606"},"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/899359383","repostId":1121866583,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121866583","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628158108,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1121866583?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-05 18:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What's Next For The S&P 500: 10% Pullback or Rolling Correction?<blockquote>标普500的下一步是什么：10%回调还是滚动修正？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121866583","media":"zacks","summary":"The market has become increasingly rational as this 16-month bull market matures, and index-based up","content":"The market has become increasingly rational as this 16-month bull market matures, and index-based upside potential dwindles every additional percentage they rally. This is a stock picker's market. Quality stocks in well-positioned sectors will have much higher upside potential than most index-tracking ETFs for the remainder of 2021.<blockquote>随着这16个月的牛市的成熟，市场变得越来越理性，基于指数的上涨潜力每增加一个百分比，就会减少。这是一个选股者的市场。在 2021 年剩余时间里，定位良好的行业中的优质股票将比大多数指数跟踪 ETF 具有更高的上涨潜力。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 hasn't seen a pullback of more than 5% so far this year and hasn't seen an actual correction (a pullback of 10% or more) since last September, which was quickly bought back up once that down 10% mark was reached. Despite this blue-chip benchmark not exhibiting any material sell-off, over 90% of its 505 components have experienced a 10% or larger correction in 2021 thus far.<blockquote>今年到目前为止，标普500的回调幅度还没有超过 5%，自去年 9 月以来也没有出现过实际的调整（回调 10% 或更多），一旦达到 10% 的下跌关口，该指数就很快被买回。尽管这个蓝筹股基准没有表现出任何材料抛售，但迄今为止，其 505 个组件中有超过 90% 在 2021 年经历了 10% 或更大的调整。</blockquote> Rotations In &amp; Out of Growth &amp; Value<blockquote>增长与价值的进出轮换</blockquote> Investors have kept the stock market's bull drive alive by rotating in and out of growth and value sectors as portfolio's position for the reopening at the beginning of the year, then turned back to growth stocks when the yield surge began to fade mid-May. This performance deviation is clearly illustrated below with Vanguard's growth-oriented ETF (VUG Quick QuoteVUG-Free Report) in the candlesticks and its value-focused ETF (VTV Quick QuoteVTV-Free Report) represented by the orange line.<blockquote>投资者通过在年初重新开盘时轮换进出成长型和价值型板块来保持股市的牛市势头，然后在5月中旬收益率飙升开始消退时又转向成长型股票。下面烛台中的 Vanguard 以增长为导向的 ETF (VUG Quick QuoteVUG-Free Report) 和以价值为导向的 ETF (VTV Quick QuoteVTV-Free Report) 清楚地说明了这种业绩偏差。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80d0680692ab8ada950167692164017e\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"408\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Image Source: TradingView<blockquote>图片来源：TradingView</blockquote> The year-to-date performance divergence between these two stock groupings illustrates that investors &amp; traders are not buying indiscriminately. Meaning that judgment is going into every trade decision (aka stock picking), causing the market to deflate overstretched areas and reallocate into relatively cheaper spaces.<blockquote>这两个股票组合今年迄今为止的表现差异表明，投资者和交易员并没有不分青红皂白地购买。这意味着这种判断会渗透到每一个交易决策（又名选股）中，导致市场收缩过度紧张的领域并重新分配到相对便宜的领域。</blockquote> Accelerating Annualized Returns<blockquote>加速年化回报</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 has remained above an extraordinary 75% annualized return trendline for over 16 months now. Unfortunately, this rate of return isn't even close to sustainable.<blockquote>16 个月来，标普500一直保持在 75% 的年化回报率趋势线之上。不幸的是，这种回报率甚至远未达到可持续水平。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 has averaged 12% upside a year over the past 3 decades. However, the average annual growth rate has aged like fine wine. This blue-chip benchmark has demonstrated an average annualized return of nearly 15% over the past decade, and if narrowed down to just the last 5 years, those annual gains go up to over 16%.<blockquote>过去 30 年来，标普500平均每年上涨 12%。然而，年均增长率却像美酒一样陈年。这一蓝筹股基准在过去十年中的平均年化回报率接近 15%，如果缩小到过去 5 年，这些年收益将超过 16%。</blockquote> The stock market is experiencing swelling average annual gains because of the rapid acceleration of technology that continuously accelerates companies' and our economy's growth outlook. I expect to see continued annualized return acceleration over the next decade as tech makes up a growing portion of the public equity market. Nevertheless, a rolling 75% annualized return out of the S&amp;P 500 isn't viable.<blockquote>由于技术的快速发展不断加速公司和我们经济的增长前景，股市正在经历不断膨胀的年均涨幅。随着科技在公共股票市场中所占份额越来越大，我预计未来十年年化回报率将继续加速。然而，标普500滚动 75% 的年化回报率是不可行的。</blockquote> There may be too much sideline capital (a record 5.5 trillion in money market funds, according to Goldman Sachs (GS Quick QuoteGS-Free Report) for the market to entirely correct. Still, we are due for consolidation over the next few months, aka a rolling correction.<blockquote>可能有太多的边际资本（根据高盛（GS Quick QuoteGS-Free Report）的数据，货币市场基金达到创纪录的5.5万亿美元，市场无法完全纠正。尽管如此，我们仍将在未来几个月进行整合，也就是滚动调整。</blockquote> We are now entering a pivotal point in this maturing market cycle. Q2 earnings season has been tremendous thus far, with earnings soaring 105% on sales up over 22% from a year ago. 91% of the reported companies beating EPS estimates, and over 86% beat top-line projections. The richly valued tech sector has demonstrated awe-inspiring Q2 results, with 100% of them exceeding EPS estimates and over 96% beating on revenues, which seemingly justified frothy valuations in the space.<blockquote>我们现在正进入这个成熟市场周期的关键点。到目前为止，第二季度财报季表现非常出色，盈利飙升 105%，销售额同比增长 22% 以上。91% 的报告公司超出了每股收益预期，超过 86% 的公司超出了营收预测。估值极高的科技行业第二季度业绩令人敬畏，其中 100% 的业绩超出了每股收益预期，超过 96% 的业绩超出了收入预期，这似乎证明了该领域的泡沫估值是合理的。</blockquote> However, analysts are projecting peak earnings growth to be in the rear-view mirror as Q2 earnings season wraps up, and at these rich multiples, valuation compression may be in order. Even with these exceptional quarterly reports and growing full-year estimates, we have seen an undue level of profit-pulling and defensive market positioning. The resurging COVID fears and anticipated shift in monetary policy also weigh on bullish sentiment.<blockquote>然而，分析师预计，随着第二季度财报季的结束，盈利增长峰值将成为过去，在这些丰富的市盈率下，估值可能会压缩。即使有这些出色的季度报告和不断增长的全年预期，我们也看到了过度的利润拉动和防御性市场定位。新冠疫情担忧的死灰复燃和货币政策的预期转变也打压了看涨情绪。</blockquote> Nevertheless, the enormous amount of cash on the bench is still being put to work, with every marginal dip being bought right back up. The national consumer savings rate in the US sits sizably above the last decade's average. Americans are not only participating in the public equity market at a record rate, but they also have plenty of liquidity to keep buying their favorite stocks.<blockquote>尽管如此，板凳上的巨额现金仍在发挥作用，每一次边际下跌都会被买回。美国全国消费者储蓄率远高于过去十年的平均水平。美国人不仅以创纪录的速度参与公共股权市场，而且他们还有充足的流动性来继续购买他们喜欢的股票。</blockquote> Stocks remain the most attractive asset class, with negative real interest rates in the bond market, sky-high commodity prices, highly volatile crypto prices, and pricing pressure that most publicly traded companies have been able to easily transfer to their end-markets (illustrated by Q2 margin results).<blockquote>股票仍然是最具吸引力的资产类别，债券市场的负实际利率、天价商品价格、高度波动的加密货币价格以及大多数上市公司能够轻松转移到终端市场的定价压力（第二季度利润率结果说明）。</blockquote> I expect to see a rolling correction, reflected by a consolidating stock market, instead of this 10%+ correction that analysts have been postulating. Range-bound indexes(less than 10% swings) for some time (month or two) would have the same valuation compressing effect as an all-out correction because earnings would be growing while prices remain muted, leading to shrinking P/E multiples (aka rolling correction).<blockquote>我预计会看到股市盘整所反映的滚动调整，而不是分析师一直假设的 10% 以上的调整。在一段时间（一两个月）内（波动小于 10%）的区间指数（波动小于 10%）会产生与全面修正相同的估值压缩效果，因为收益会增长，而价格保持低迷，导致市盈率缩小（又名滚动修正）。</blockquote> I foresee a sideways broader market trade until the Delta-variant is no longer a global concern. I remain bullish on stocks for the remaining 5 months of 2021 and am confident that the S&amp;P 500 will close out the year higher than it is trading at today.<blockquote>我预计市场交易将横盘整理，直到Delta变体不再是全球关注的问题。在2021年剩余的5个月里，我仍然看好股市，并相信标普500将以高于今天的交易价格结束这一年。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What's Next For The S&P 500: 10% Pullback or Rolling Correction?<blockquote>标普500的下一步是什么：10%回调还是滚动修正？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat's Next For The S&P 500: 10% Pullback or Rolling Correction?<blockquote>标普500的下一步是什么：10%回调还是滚动修正？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzacks2021-08-05 18:08\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe market has become increasingly rational as this 16-month bull market matures, and index-based upside potential dwindles every additional percentage they rally. This is a stock picker's market. Quality stocks in well-positioned sectors will have much higher upside potential than most index-tracking ETFs for the remainder of 2021.<blockquote>随着这16个月的牛市的成熟，市场变得越来越理性，基于指数的上涨潜力每增加一个百分比，就会减少。这是一个选股者的市场。在 2021 年剩余时间里，定位良好的行业中的优质股票将比大多数指数跟踪 ETF 具有更高的上涨潜力。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 hasn't seen a pullback of more than 5% so far this year and hasn't seen an actual correction (a pullback of 10% or more) since last September, which was quickly bought back up once that down 10% mark was reached. Despite this blue-chip benchmark not exhibiting any material sell-off, over 90% of its 505 components have experienced a 10% or larger correction in 2021 thus far.<blockquote>今年到目前为止，标普500的回调幅度还没有超过 5%，自去年 9 月以来也没有出现过实际的调整（回调 10% 或更多），一旦达到 10% 的下跌关口，该指数就很快被买回。尽管这个蓝筹股基准没有表现出任何材料抛售，但迄今为止，其 505 个组件中有超过 90% 在 2021 年经历了 10% 或更大的调整。</blockquote> Rotations In &amp; Out of Growth &amp; Value<blockquote>增长与价值的进出轮换</blockquote> Investors have kept the stock market's bull drive alive by rotating in and out of growth and value sectors as portfolio's position for the reopening at the beginning of the year, then turned back to growth stocks when the yield surge began to fade mid-May. This performance deviation is clearly illustrated below with Vanguard's growth-oriented ETF (VUG Quick QuoteVUG-Free Report) in the candlesticks and its value-focused ETF (VTV Quick QuoteVTV-Free Report) represented by the orange line.<blockquote>投资者通过在年初重新开盘时轮换进出成长型和价值型板块来保持股市的牛市势头，然后在5月中旬收益率飙升开始消退时又转向成长型股票。下面烛台中的 Vanguard 以增长为导向的 ETF (VUG Quick QuoteVUG-Free Report) 和以价值为导向的 ETF (VTV Quick QuoteVTV-Free Report) 清楚地说明了这种业绩偏差。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80d0680692ab8ada950167692164017e\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"408\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Image Source: TradingView<blockquote>图片来源：TradingView</blockquote> The year-to-date performance divergence between these two stock groupings illustrates that investors &amp; traders are not buying indiscriminately. Meaning that judgment is going into every trade decision (aka stock picking), causing the market to deflate overstretched areas and reallocate into relatively cheaper spaces.<blockquote>这两个股票组合今年迄今为止的表现差异表明，投资者和交易员并没有不分青红皂白地购买。这意味着这种判断会渗透到每一个交易决策（又名选股）中，导致市场收缩过度紧张的领域并重新分配到相对便宜的领域。</blockquote> Accelerating Annualized Returns<blockquote>加速年化回报</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 has remained above an extraordinary 75% annualized return trendline for over 16 months now. Unfortunately, this rate of return isn't even close to sustainable.<blockquote>16 个月来，标普500一直保持在 75% 的年化回报率趋势线之上。不幸的是，这种回报率甚至远未达到可持续水平。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 has averaged 12% upside a year over the past 3 decades. However, the average annual growth rate has aged like fine wine. This blue-chip benchmark has demonstrated an average annualized return of nearly 15% over the past decade, and if narrowed down to just the last 5 years, those annual gains go up to over 16%.<blockquote>过去 30 年来，标普500平均每年上涨 12%。然而，年均增长率却像美酒一样陈年。这一蓝筹股基准在过去十年中的平均年化回报率接近 15%，如果缩小到过去 5 年，这些年收益将超过 16%。</blockquote> The stock market is experiencing swelling average annual gains because of the rapid acceleration of technology that continuously accelerates companies' and our economy's growth outlook. I expect to see continued annualized return acceleration over the next decade as tech makes up a growing portion of the public equity market. Nevertheless, a rolling 75% annualized return out of the S&amp;P 500 isn't viable.<blockquote>由于技术的快速发展不断加速公司和我们经济的增长前景，股市正在经历不断膨胀的年均涨幅。随着科技在公共股票市场中所占份额越来越大，我预计未来十年年化回报率将继续加速。然而，标普500滚动 75% 的年化回报率是不可行的。</blockquote> There may be too much sideline capital (a record 5.5 trillion in money market funds, according to Goldman Sachs (GS Quick QuoteGS-Free Report) for the market to entirely correct. Still, we are due for consolidation over the next few months, aka a rolling correction.<blockquote>可能有太多的边际资本（根据高盛（GS Quick QuoteGS-Free Report）的数据，货币市场基金达到创纪录的5.5万亿美元，市场无法完全纠正。尽管如此，我们仍将在未来几个月进行整合，也就是滚动调整。</blockquote> We are now entering a pivotal point in this maturing market cycle. Q2 earnings season has been tremendous thus far, with earnings soaring 105% on sales up over 22% from a year ago. 91% of the reported companies beating EPS estimates, and over 86% beat top-line projections. The richly valued tech sector has demonstrated awe-inspiring Q2 results, with 100% of them exceeding EPS estimates and over 96% beating on revenues, which seemingly justified frothy valuations in the space.<blockquote>我们现在正进入这个成熟市场周期的关键点。到目前为止，第二季度财报季表现非常出色，盈利飙升 105%，销售额同比增长 22% 以上。91% 的报告公司超出了每股收益预期，超过 86% 的公司超出了营收预测。估值极高的科技行业第二季度业绩令人敬畏，其中 100% 的业绩超出了每股收益预期，超过 96% 的业绩超出了收入预期，这似乎证明了该领域的泡沫估值是合理的。</blockquote> However, analysts are projecting peak earnings growth to be in the rear-view mirror as Q2 earnings season wraps up, and at these rich multiples, valuation compression may be in order. Even with these exceptional quarterly reports and growing full-year estimates, we have seen an undue level of profit-pulling and defensive market positioning. The resurging COVID fears and anticipated shift in monetary policy also weigh on bullish sentiment.<blockquote>然而，分析师预计，随着第二季度财报季的结束，盈利增长峰值将成为过去，在这些丰富的市盈率下，估值可能会压缩。即使有这些出色的季度报告和不断增长的全年预期，我们也看到了过度的利润拉动和防御性市场定位。新冠疫情担忧的死灰复燃和货币政策的预期转变也打压了看涨情绪。</blockquote> Nevertheless, the enormous amount of cash on the bench is still being put to work, with every marginal dip being bought right back up. The national consumer savings rate in the US sits sizably above the last decade's average. Americans are not only participating in the public equity market at a record rate, but they also have plenty of liquidity to keep buying their favorite stocks.<blockquote>尽管如此，板凳上的巨额现金仍在发挥作用，每一次边际下跌都会被买回。美国全国消费者储蓄率远高于过去十年的平均水平。美国人不仅以创纪录的速度参与公共股权市场，而且他们还有充足的流动性来继续购买他们喜欢的股票。</blockquote> Stocks remain the most attractive asset class, with negative real interest rates in the bond market, sky-high commodity prices, highly volatile crypto prices, and pricing pressure that most publicly traded companies have been able to easily transfer to their end-markets (illustrated by Q2 margin results).<blockquote>股票仍然是最具吸引力的资产类别，债券市场的负实际利率、天价商品价格、高度波动的加密货币价格以及大多数上市公司能够轻松转移到终端市场的定价压力（第二季度利润率结果说明）。</blockquote> I expect to see a rolling correction, reflected by a consolidating stock market, instead of this 10%+ correction that analysts have been postulating. Range-bound indexes(less than 10% swings) for some time (month or two) would have the same valuation compressing effect as an all-out correction because earnings would be growing while prices remain muted, leading to shrinking P/E multiples (aka rolling correction).<blockquote>我预计会看到股市盘整所反映的滚动调整，而不是分析师一直假设的 10% 以上的调整。在一段时间（一两个月）内（波动小于 10%）的区间指数（波动小于 10%）会产生与全面修正相同的估值压缩效果，因为收益会增长，而价格保持低迷，导致市盈率缩小（又名滚动修正）。</blockquote> I foresee a sideways broader market trade until the Delta-variant is no longer a global concern. I remain bullish on stocks for the remaining 5 months of 2021 and am confident that the S&amp;P 500 will close out the year higher than it is trading at today.<blockquote>我预计市场交易将横盘整理，直到Delta变体不再是全球关注的问题。在2021年剩余的5个月里，我仍然看好股市，并相信标普500将以高于今天的交易价格结束这一年。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zacks.com/commentary/1773639/whats-next-for-the-sp-500-10-pullback-or-rolling-correction?&art_rec=home-home-investment_ideas_stocks-ID09-txt-1278004\">zacks</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zacks.com/commentary/1773639/whats-next-for-the-sp-500-10-pullback-or-rolling-correction?&art_rec=home-home-investment_ideas_stocks-ID09-txt-1278004","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121866583","content_text":"The market has become increasingly rational as this 16-month bull market matures, and index-based upside potential dwindles every additional percentage they rally. This is a stock picker's market. Quality stocks in well-positioned sectors will have much higher upside potential than most index-tracking ETFs for the remainder of 2021.\nThe S&P 500 hasn't seen a pullback of more than 5% so far this year and hasn't seen an actual correction (a pullback of 10% or more) since last September, which was quickly bought back up once that down 10% mark was reached. Despite this blue-chip benchmark not exhibiting any material sell-off, over 90% of its 505 components have experienced a 10% or larger correction in 2021 thus far.\nRotations In & Out of Growth & Value\nInvestors have kept the stock market's bull drive alive by rotating in and out of growth and value sectors as portfolio's position for the reopening at the beginning of the year, then turned back to growth stocks when the yield surge began to fade mid-May. This performance deviation is clearly illustrated below with Vanguard's growth-oriented ETF (VUG Quick QuoteVUG-Free Report) in the candlesticks and its value-focused ETF (VTV Quick QuoteVTV-Free Report) represented by the orange line.\n\nImage Source: TradingView\nThe year-to-date performance divergence between these two stock groupings illustrates that investors & traders are not buying indiscriminately. Meaning that judgment is going into every trade decision (aka stock picking), causing the market to deflate overstretched areas and reallocate into relatively cheaper spaces.\nAccelerating Annualized Returns\nThe S&P 500 has remained above an extraordinary 75% annualized return trendline for over 16 months now. Unfortunately, this rate of return isn't even close to sustainable.\nThe S&P 500 has averaged 12% upside a year over the past 3 decades. However, the average annual growth rate has aged like fine wine. This blue-chip benchmark has demonstrated an average annualized return of nearly 15% over the past decade, and if narrowed down to just the last 5 years, those annual gains go up to over 16%.\nThe stock market is experiencing swelling average annual gains because of the rapid acceleration of technology that continuously accelerates companies' and our economy's growth outlook. I expect to see continued annualized return acceleration over the next decade as tech makes up a growing portion of the public equity market. Nevertheless, a rolling 75% annualized return out of the S&P 500 isn't viable.\nThere may be too much sideline capital (a record 5.5 trillion in money market funds, according to Goldman Sachs (GS Quick QuoteGS-Free Report) for the market to entirely correct. Still, we are due for consolidation over the next few months, aka a rolling correction.\nWe are now entering a pivotal point in this maturing market cycle. Q2 earnings season has been tremendous thus far, with earnings soaring 105% on sales up over 22% from a year ago. 91% of the reported companies beating EPS estimates, and over 86% beat top-line projections. The richly valued tech sector has demonstrated awe-inspiring Q2 results, with 100% of them exceeding EPS estimates and over 96% beating on revenues, which seemingly justified frothy valuations in the space.\nHowever, analysts are projecting peak earnings growth to be in the rear-view mirror as Q2 earnings season wraps up, and at these rich multiples, valuation compression may be in order. Even with these exceptional quarterly reports and growing full-year estimates, we have seen an undue level of profit-pulling and defensive market positioning. The resurging COVID fears and anticipated shift in monetary policy also weigh on bullish sentiment.\nNevertheless, the enormous amount of cash on the bench is still being put to work, with every marginal dip being bought right back up. The national consumer savings rate in the US sits sizably above the last decade's average. Americans are not only participating in the public equity market at a record rate, but they also have plenty of liquidity to keep buying their favorite stocks.\nStocks remain the most attractive asset class, with negative real interest rates in the bond market, sky-high commodity prices, highly volatile crypto prices, and pricing pressure that most publicly traded companies have been able to easily transfer to their end-markets (illustrated by Q2 margin results).\nI expect to see a rolling correction, reflected by a consolidating stock market, instead of this 10%+ correction that analysts have been postulating. Range-bound indexes(less than 10% swings) for some time (month or two) would have the same valuation compressing effect as an all-out correction because earnings would be growing while prices remain muted, leading to shrinking P/E multiples (aka rolling correction).\nI foresee a sideways broader market trade until the Delta-variant is no longer a global concern. I remain bullish on stocks for the remaining 5 months of 2021 and am confident that the S&P 500 will close out the year higher than it is trading at today.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5435906,"gmtCreate":1628163089529,"gmtModify":1635159387406,"authorId":3577853138256044,"author":{"id":3577853138256044,"idStr":"3577853138256044","authorId":3577853138256044,"name":"AlvisChung","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a0935cb5351b342a4ad73d73fb14a3f","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":899359383,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Up","text":"Up","html":"Up"},{"id":5435914,"gmtCreate":1628163154533,"gmtModify":1635159386690,"authorId":3581583439142650,"author":{"id":3581583439142650,"idStr":"3581583439142650","authorId":3581583439142650,"name":"bananafruit","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f58151b71d449711486ea1e300e563e","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":899359383,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Ok","text":"Ok","html":"Ok"},{"id":5435916,"gmtCreate":1628163163410,"gmtModify":1635159386445,"authorId":3581583439142650,"author":{"id":3581583439142650,"idStr":"3581583439142650","authorId":3581583439142650,"name":"bananafruit","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f58151b71d449711486ea1e300e563e","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":899359383,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Okok","text":"Okok","html":"Okok"},{"id":5435935,"gmtCreate":1628163297029,"gmtModify":1635159384496,"authorId":3560334266105709,"author":{"id":3560334266105709,"idStr":"3560334266105709","authorId":3560334266105709,"name":"RogerLee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":899359383,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"nice","text":"nice","html":"nice"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":899325150,"gmtCreate":1628162391770,"gmtModify":1633753050534,"author":{"id":"3576987369058453","authorId":"3576987369058453","name":"Winyss10","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3576987369058453","idStr":"3576987369058453"},"htmlText":"2 minutes ago","listText":"2 minutes ago","text":"2 minutes ago","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/899325150","repostId":1121866583,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121866583","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628158108,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1121866583?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-05 18:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What's Next For The S&P 500: 10% Pullback or Rolling Correction?<blockquote>标普500的下一步是什么：10%回调还是滚动修正？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121866583","media":"zacks","summary":"The market has become increasingly rational as this 16-month bull market matures, and index-based up","content":"The market has become increasingly rational as this 16-month bull market matures, and index-based upside potential dwindles every additional percentage they rally. This is a stock picker's market. Quality stocks in well-positioned sectors will have much higher upside potential than most index-tracking ETFs for the remainder of 2021.<blockquote>随着这16个月的牛市的成熟，市场变得越来越理性，基于指数的上涨潜力每增加一个百分比，就会减少。这是一个选股者的市场。在 2021 年剩余时间里，定位良好的行业中的优质股票将比大多数指数跟踪 ETF 具有更高的上涨潜力。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 hasn't seen a pullback of more than 5% so far this year and hasn't seen an actual correction (a pullback of 10% or more) since last September, which was quickly bought back up once that down 10% mark was reached. Despite this blue-chip benchmark not exhibiting any material sell-off, over 90% of its 505 components have experienced a 10% or larger correction in 2021 thus far.<blockquote>今年到目前为止，标普500的回调幅度还没有超过 5%，自去年 9 月以来也没有出现过实际的调整（回调 10% 或更多），一旦达到 10% 的下跌关口，该指数就很快被买回。尽管这个蓝筹股基准没有表现出任何材料抛售，但迄今为止，其 505 个组件中有超过 90% 在 2021 年经历了 10% 或更大的调整。</blockquote> Rotations In &amp; Out of Growth &amp; Value<blockquote>增长与价值的进出轮换</blockquote> Investors have kept the stock market's bull drive alive by rotating in and out of growth and value sectors as portfolio's position for the reopening at the beginning of the year, then turned back to growth stocks when the yield surge began to fade mid-May. This performance deviation is clearly illustrated below with Vanguard's growth-oriented ETF (VUG Quick QuoteVUG-Free Report) in the candlesticks and its value-focused ETF (VTV Quick QuoteVTV-Free Report) represented by the orange line.<blockquote>投资者通过在年初重新开盘时轮换进出成长型和价值型板块来保持股市的牛市势头，然后在5月中旬收益率飙升开始消退时又转向成长型股票。下面烛台中的 Vanguard 以增长为导向的 ETF (VUG Quick QuoteVUG-Free Report) 和以价值为导向的 ETF (VTV Quick QuoteVTV-Free Report) 清楚地说明了这种业绩偏差。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80d0680692ab8ada950167692164017e\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"408\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Image Source: TradingView<blockquote>图片来源：TradingView</blockquote> The year-to-date performance divergence between these two stock groupings illustrates that investors &amp; traders are not buying indiscriminately. Meaning that judgment is going into every trade decision (aka stock picking), causing the market to deflate overstretched areas and reallocate into relatively cheaper spaces.<blockquote>这两个股票组合今年迄今为止的表现差异表明，投资者和交易员并没有不分青红皂白地购买。这意味着这种判断会渗透到每一个交易决策（又名选股）中，导致市场收缩过度紧张的领域并重新分配到相对便宜的领域。</blockquote> Accelerating Annualized Returns<blockquote>加速年化回报</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 has remained above an extraordinary 75% annualized return trendline for over 16 months now. Unfortunately, this rate of return isn't even close to sustainable.<blockquote>16 个月来，标普500一直保持在 75% 的年化回报率趋势线之上。不幸的是，这种回报率甚至远未达到可持续水平。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 has averaged 12% upside a year over the past 3 decades. However, the average annual growth rate has aged like fine wine. This blue-chip benchmark has demonstrated an average annualized return of nearly 15% over the past decade, and if narrowed down to just the last 5 years, those annual gains go up to over 16%.<blockquote>过去 30 年来，标普500平均每年上涨 12%。然而，年均增长率却像美酒一样陈年。这一蓝筹股基准在过去十年中的平均年化回报率接近 15%，如果缩小到过去 5 年，这些年收益将超过 16%。</blockquote> The stock market is experiencing swelling average annual gains because of the rapid acceleration of technology that continuously accelerates companies' and our economy's growth outlook. I expect to see continued annualized return acceleration over the next decade as tech makes up a growing portion of the public equity market. Nevertheless, a rolling 75% annualized return out of the S&amp;P 500 isn't viable.<blockquote>由于技术的快速发展不断加速公司和我们经济的增长前景，股市正在经历不断膨胀的年均涨幅。随着科技在公共股票市场中所占份额越来越大，我预计未来十年年化回报率将继续加速。然而，标普500滚动 75% 的年化回报率是不可行的。</blockquote> There may be too much sideline capital (a record 5.5 trillion in money market funds, according to Goldman Sachs (GS Quick QuoteGS-Free Report) for the market to entirely correct. Still, we are due for consolidation over the next few months, aka a rolling correction.<blockquote>可能有太多的边际资本（根据高盛（GS Quick QuoteGS-Free Report）的数据，货币市场基金达到创纪录的5.5万亿美元，市场无法完全纠正。尽管如此，我们仍将在未来几个月进行整合，也就是滚动调整。</blockquote> We are now entering a pivotal point in this maturing market cycle. Q2 earnings season has been tremendous thus far, with earnings soaring 105% on sales up over 22% from a year ago. 91% of the reported companies beating EPS estimates, and over 86% beat top-line projections. The richly valued tech sector has demonstrated awe-inspiring Q2 results, with 100% of them exceeding EPS estimates and over 96% beating on revenues, which seemingly justified frothy valuations in the space.<blockquote>我们现在正进入这个成熟市场周期的关键点。到目前为止，第二季度财报季表现非常出色，盈利飙升 105%，销售额同比增长 22% 以上。91% 的报告公司超出了每股收益预期，超过 86% 的公司超出了营收预测。估值极高的科技行业第二季度业绩令人敬畏，其中 100% 的业绩超出了每股收益预期，超过 96% 的业绩超出了收入预期，这似乎证明了该领域的泡沫估值是合理的。</blockquote> However, analysts are projecting peak earnings growth to be in the rear-view mirror as Q2 earnings season wraps up, and at these rich multiples, valuation compression may be in order. Even with these exceptional quarterly reports and growing full-year estimates, we have seen an undue level of profit-pulling and defensive market positioning. The resurging COVID fears and anticipated shift in monetary policy also weigh on bullish sentiment.<blockquote>然而，分析师预计，随着第二季度财报季的结束，盈利增长峰值将成为过去，在这些丰富的市盈率下，估值可能会压缩。即使有这些出色的季度报告和不断增长的全年预期，我们也看到了过度的利润拉动和防御性市场定位。新冠疫情担忧的死灰复燃和货币政策的预期转变也打压了看涨情绪。</blockquote> Nevertheless, the enormous amount of cash on the bench is still being put to work, with every marginal dip being bought right back up. The national consumer savings rate in the US sits sizably above the last decade's average. Americans are not only participating in the public equity market at a record rate, but they also have plenty of liquidity to keep buying their favorite stocks.<blockquote>尽管如此，板凳上的巨额现金仍在发挥作用，每一次边际下跌都会被买回。美国全国消费者储蓄率远高于过去十年的平均水平。美国人不仅以创纪录的速度参与公共股权市场，而且他们还有充足的流动性来继续购买他们喜欢的股票。</blockquote> Stocks remain the most attractive asset class, with negative real interest rates in the bond market, sky-high commodity prices, highly volatile crypto prices, and pricing pressure that most publicly traded companies have been able to easily transfer to their end-markets (illustrated by Q2 margin results).<blockquote>股票仍然是最具吸引力的资产类别，债券市场的负实际利率、天价商品价格、高度波动的加密货币价格以及大多数上市公司能够轻松转移到终端市场的定价压力（第二季度利润率结果说明）。</blockquote> I expect to see a rolling correction, reflected by a consolidating stock market, instead of this 10%+ correction that analysts have been postulating. Range-bound indexes(less than 10% swings) for some time (month or two) would have the same valuation compressing effect as an all-out correction because earnings would be growing while prices remain muted, leading to shrinking P/E multiples (aka rolling correction).<blockquote>我预计会看到股市盘整所反映的滚动调整，而不是分析师一直假设的 10% 以上的调整。在一段时间（一两个月）内（波动小于 10%）的区间指数（波动小于 10%）会产生与全面修正相同的估值压缩效果，因为收益会增长，而价格保持低迷，导致市盈率缩小（又名滚动修正）。</blockquote> I foresee a sideways broader market trade until the Delta-variant is no longer a global concern. I remain bullish on stocks for the remaining 5 months of 2021 and am confident that the S&amp;P 500 will close out the year higher than it is trading at today.<blockquote>我预计市场交易将横盘整理，直到Delta变体不再是全球关注的问题。在2021年剩余的5个月里，我仍然看好股市，并相信标普500将以高于今天的交易价格结束这一年。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What's Next For The S&P 500: 10% Pullback or Rolling Correction?<blockquote>标普500的下一步是什么：10%回调还是滚动修正？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat's Next For The S&P 500: 10% Pullback or Rolling Correction?<blockquote>标普500的下一步是什么：10%回调还是滚动修正？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzacks2021-08-05 18:08\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe market has become increasingly rational as this 16-month bull market matures, and index-based upside potential dwindles every additional percentage they rally. This is a stock picker's market. Quality stocks in well-positioned sectors will have much higher upside potential than most index-tracking ETFs for the remainder of 2021.<blockquote>随着这16个月的牛市的成熟，市场变得越来越理性，基于指数的上涨潜力每增加一个百分比，就会减少。这是一个选股者的市场。在 2021 年剩余时间里，定位良好的行业中的优质股票将比大多数指数跟踪 ETF 具有更高的上涨潜力。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 hasn't seen a pullback of more than 5% so far this year and hasn't seen an actual correction (a pullback of 10% or more) since last September, which was quickly bought back up once that down 10% mark was reached. Despite this blue-chip benchmark not exhibiting any material sell-off, over 90% of its 505 components have experienced a 10% or larger correction in 2021 thus far.<blockquote>今年到目前为止，标普500的回调幅度还没有超过 5%，自去年 9 月以来也没有出现过实际的调整（回调 10% 或更多），一旦达到 10% 的下跌关口，该指数就很快被买回。尽管这个蓝筹股基准没有表现出任何材料抛售，但迄今为止，其 505 个组件中有超过 90% 在 2021 年经历了 10% 或更大的调整。</blockquote> Rotations In &amp; Out of Growth &amp; Value<blockquote>增长与价值的进出轮换</blockquote> Investors have kept the stock market's bull drive alive by rotating in and out of growth and value sectors as portfolio's position for the reopening at the beginning of the year, then turned back to growth stocks when the yield surge began to fade mid-May. This performance deviation is clearly illustrated below with Vanguard's growth-oriented ETF (VUG Quick QuoteVUG-Free Report) in the candlesticks and its value-focused ETF (VTV Quick QuoteVTV-Free Report) represented by the orange line.<blockquote>投资者通过在年初重新开盘时轮换进出成长型和价值型板块来保持股市的牛市势头，然后在5月中旬收益率飙升开始消退时又转向成长型股票。下面烛台中的 Vanguard 以增长为导向的 ETF (VUG Quick QuoteVUG-Free Report) 和以价值为导向的 ETF (VTV Quick QuoteVTV-Free Report) 清楚地说明了这种业绩偏差。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80d0680692ab8ada950167692164017e\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"408\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Image Source: TradingView<blockquote>图片来源：TradingView</blockquote> The year-to-date performance divergence between these two stock groupings illustrates that investors &amp; traders are not buying indiscriminately. Meaning that judgment is going into every trade decision (aka stock picking), causing the market to deflate overstretched areas and reallocate into relatively cheaper spaces.<blockquote>这两个股票组合今年迄今为止的表现差异表明，投资者和交易员并没有不分青红皂白地购买。这意味着这种判断会渗透到每一个交易决策（又名选股）中，导致市场收缩过度紧张的领域并重新分配到相对便宜的领域。</blockquote> Accelerating Annualized Returns<blockquote>加速年化回报</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 has remained above an extraordinary 75% annualized return trendline for over 16 months now. Unfortunately, this rate of return isn't even close to sustainable.<blockquote>16 个月来，标普500一直保持在 75% 的年化回报率趋势线之上。不幸的是，这种回报率甚至远未达到可持续水平。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 has averaged 12% upside a year over the past 3 decades. However, the average annual growth rate has aged like fine wine. This blue-chip benchmark has demonstrated an average annualized return of nearly 15% over the past decade, and if narrowed down to just the last 5 years, those annual gains go up to over 16%.<blockquote>过去 30 年来，标普500平均每年上涨 12%。然而，年均增长率却像美酒一样陈年。这一蓝筹股基准在过去十年中的平均年化回报率接近 15%，如果缩小到过去 5 年，这些年收益将超过 16%。</blockquote> The stock market is experiencing swelling average annual gains because of the rapid acceleration of technology that continuously accelerates companies' and our economy's growth outlook. I expect to see continued annualized return acceleration over the next decade as tech makes up a growing portion of the public equity market. Nevertheless, a rolling 75% annualized return out of the S&amp;P 500 isn't viable.<blockquote>由于技术的快速发展不断加速公司和我们经济的增长前景，股市正在经历不断膨胀的年均涨幅。随着科技在公共股票市场中所占份额越来越大，我预计未来十年年化回报率将继续加速。然而，标普500滚动 75% 的年化回报率是不可行的。</blockquote> There may be too much sideline capital (a record 5.5 trillion in money market funds, according to Goldman Sachs (GS Quick QuoteGS-Free Report) for the market to entirely correct. Still, we are due for consolidation over the next few months, aka a rolling correction.<blockquote>可能有太多的边际资本（根据高盛（GS Quick QuoteGS-Free Report）的数据，货币市场基金达到创纪录的5.5万亿美元，市场无法完全纠正。尽管如此，我们仍将在未来几个月进行整合，也就是滚动调整。</blockquote> We are now entering a pivotal point in this maturing market cycle. Q2 earnings season has been tremendous thus far, with earnings soaring 105% on sales up over 22% from a year ago. 91% of the reported companies beating EPS estimates, and over 86% beat top-line projections. The richly valued tech sector has demonstrated awe-inspiring Q2 results, with 100% of them exceeding EPS estimates and over 96% beating on revenues, which seemingly justified frothy valuations in the space.<blockquote>我们现在正进入这个成熟市场周期的关键点。到目前为止，第二季度财报季表现非常出色，盈利飙升 105%，销售额同比增长 22% 以上。91% 的报告公司超出了每股收益预期，超过 86% 的公司超出了营收预测。估值极高的科技行业第二季度业绩令人敬畏，其中 100% 的业绩超出了每股收益预期，超过 96% 的业绩超出了收入预期，这似乎证明了该领域的泡沫估值是合理的。</blockquote> However, analysts are projecting peak earnings growth to be in the rear-view mirror as Q2 earnings season wraps up, and at these rich multiples, valuation compression may be in order. Even with these exceptional quarterly reports and growing full-year estimates, we have seen an undue level of profit-pulling and defensive market positioning. The resurging COVID fears and anticipated shift in monetary policy also weigh on bullish sentiment.<blockquote>然而，分析师预计，随着第二季度财报季的结束，盈利增长峰值将成为过去，在这些丰富的市盈率下，估值可能会压缩。即使有这些出色的季度报告和不断增长的全年预期，我们也看到了过度的利润拉动和防御性市场定位。新冠疫情担忧的死灰复燃和货币政策的预期转变也打压了看涨情绪。</blockquote> Nevertheless, the enormous amount of cash on the bench is still being put to work, with every marginal dip being bought right back up. The national consumer savings rate in the US sits sizably above the last decade's average. Americans are not only participating in the public equity market at a record rate, but they also have plenty of liquidity to keep buying their favorite stocks.<blockquote>尽管如此，板凳上的巨额现金仍在发挥作用，每一次边际下跌都会被买回。美国全国消费者储蓄率远高于过去十年的平均水平。美国人不仅以创纪录的速度参与公共股权市场，而且他们还有充足的流动性来继续购买他们喜欢的股票。</blockquote> Stocks remain the most attractive asset class, with negative real interest rates in the bond market, sky-high commodity prices, highly volatile crypto prices, and pricing pressure that most publicly traded companies have been able to easily transfer to their end-markets (illustrated by Q2 margin results).<blockquote>股票仍然是最具吸引力的资产类别，债券市场的负实际利率、天价商品价格、高度波动的加密货币价格以及大多数上市公司能够轻松转移到终端市场的定价压力（第二季度利润率结果说明）。</blockquote> I expect to see a rolling correction, reflected by a consolidating stock market, instead of this 10%+ correction that analysts have been postulating. Range-bound indexes(less than 10% swings) for some time (month or two) would have the same valuation compressing effect as an all-out correction because earnings would be growing while prices remain muted, leading to shrinking P/E multiples (aka rolling correction).<blockquote>我预计会看到股市盘整所反映的滚动调整，而不是分析师一直假设的 10% 以上的调整。在一段时间（一两个月）内（波动小于 10%）的区间指数（波动小于 10%）会产生与全面修正相同的估值压缩效果，因为收益会增长，而价格保持低迷，导致市盈率缩小（又名滚动修正）。</blockquote> I foresee a sideways broader market trade until the Delta-variant is no longer a global concern. I remain bullish on stocks for the remaining 5 months of 2021 and am confident that the S&amp;P 500 will close out the year higher than it is trading at today.<blockquote>我预计市场交易将横盘整理，直到Delta变体不再是全球关注的问题。在2021年剩余的5个月里，我仍然看好股市，并相信标普500将以高于今天的交易价格结束这一年。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zacks.com/commentary/1773639/whats-next-for-the-sp-500-10-pullback-or-rolling-correction?&art_rec=home-home-investment_ideas_stocks-ID09-txt-1278004\">zacks</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zacks.com/commentary/1773639/whats-next-for-the-sp-500-10-pullback-or-rolling-correction?&art_rec=home-home-investment_ideas_stocks-ID09-txt-1278004","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121866583","content_text":"The market has become increasingly rational as this 16-month bull market matures, and index-based upside potential dwindles every additional percentage they rally. This is a stock picker's market. Quality stocks in well-positioned sectors will have much higher upside potential than most index-tracking ETFs for the remainder of 2021.\nThe S&P 500 hasn't seen a pullback of more than 5% so far this year and hasn't seen an actual correction (a pullback of 10% or more) since last September, which was quickly bought back up once that down 10% mark was reached. Despite this blue-chip benchmark not exhibiting any material sell-off, over 90% of its 505 components have experienced a 10% or larger correction in 2021 thus far.\nRotations In & Out of Growth & Value\nInvestors have kept the stock market's bull drive alive by rotating in and out of growth and value sectors as portfolio's position for the reopening at the beginning of the year, then turned back to growth stocks when the yield surge began to fade mid-May. This performance deviation is clearly illustrated below with Vanguard's growth-oriented ETF (VUG Quick QuoteVUG-Free Report) in the candlesticks and its value-focused ETF (VTV Quick QuoteVTV-Free Report) represented by the orange line.\n\nImage Source: TradingView\nThe year-to-date performance divergence between these two stock groupings illustrates that investors & traders are not buying indiscriminately. Meaning that judgment is going into every trade decision (aka stock picking), causing the market to deflate overstretched areas and reallocate into relatively cheaper spaces.\nAccelerating Annualized Returns\nThe S&P 500 has remained above an extraordinary 75% annualized return trendline for over 16 months now. Unfortunately, this rate of return isn't even close to sustainable.\nThe S&P 500 has averaged 12% upside a year over the past 3 decades. However, the average annual growth rate has aged like fine wine. This blue-chip benchmark has demonstrated an average annualized return of nearly 15% over the past decade, and if narrowed down to just the last 5 years, those annual gains go up to over 16%.\nThe stock market is experiencing swelling average annual gains because of the rapid acceleration of technology that continuously accelerates companies' and our economy's growth outlook. I expect to see continued annualized return acceleration over the next decade as tech makes up a growing portion of the public equity market. Nevertheless, a rolling 75% annualized return out of the S&P 500 isn't viable.\nThere may be too much sideline capital (a record 5.5 trillion in money market funds, according to Goldman Sachs (GS Quick QuoteGS-Free Report) for the market to entirely correct. Still, we are due for consolidation over the next few months, aka a rolling correction.\nWe are now entering a pivotal point in this maturing market cycle. Q2 earnings season has been tremendous thus far, with earnings soaring 105% on sales up over 22% from a year ago. 91% of the reported companies beating EPS estimates, and over 86% beat top-line projections. The richly valued tech sector has demonstrated awe-inspiring Q2 results, with 100% of them exceeding EPS estimates and over 96% beating on revenues, which seemingly justified frothy valuations in the space.\nHowever, analysts are projecting peak earnings growth to be in the rear-view mirror as Q2 earnings season wraps up, and at these rich multiples, valuation compression may be in order. Even with these exceptional quarterly reports and growing full-year estimates, we have seen an undue level of profit-pulling and defensive market positioning. The resurging COVID fears and anticipated shift in monetary policy also weigh on bullish sentiment.\nNevertheless, the enormous amount of cash on the bench is still being put to work, with every marginal dip being bought right back up. The national consumer savings rate in the US sits sizably above the last decade's average. Americans are not only participating in the public equity market at a record rate, but they also have plenty of liquidity to keep buying their favorite stocks.\nStocks remain the most attractive asset class, with negative real interest rates in the bond market, sky-high commodity prices, highly volatile crypto prices, and pricing pressure that most publicly traded companies have been able to easily transfer to their end-markets (illustrated by Q2 margin results).\nI expect to see a rolling correction, reflected by a consolidating stock market, instead of this 10%+ correction that analysts have been postulating. Range-bound indexes(less than 10% swings) for some time (month or two) would have the same valuation compressing effect as an all-out correction because earnings would be growing while prices remain muted, leading to shrinking P/E multiples (aka rolling correction).\nI foresee a sideways broader market trade until the Delta-variant is no longer a global concern. I remain bullish on stocks for the remaining 5 months of 2021 and am confident that the S&P 500 will close out the year higher than it is trading at today.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":899321756,"gmtCreate":1628162086275,"gmtModify":1631893785560,"author":{"id":"3581979721991802","authorId":"3581979721991802","name":"74c5dd72","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3581979721991802","idStr":"3581979721991802"},"htmlText":"Pls like and share","listText":"Pls like and share","text":"Pls like and share","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/899321756","repostId":1121866583,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121866583","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628158108,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1121866583?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-05 18:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What's Next For The S&P 500: 10% Pullback or Rolling Correction?<blockquote>标普500的下一步是什么：10%回调还是滚动修正？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121866583","media":"zacks","summary":"The market has become increasingly rational as this 16-month bull market matures, and index-based up","content":"The market has become increasingly rational as this 16-month bull market matures, and index-based upside potential dwindles every additional percentage they rally. This is a stock picker's market. Quality stocks in well-positioned sectors will have much higher upside potential than most index-tracking ETFs for the remainder of 2021.<blockquote>随着这16个月的牛市的成熟，市场变得越来越理性，基于指数的上涨潜力每增加一个百分比，就会减少。这是一个选股者的市场。在 2021 年剩余时间里，定位良好的行业中的优质股票将比大多数指数跟踪 ETF 具有更高的上涨潜力。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 hasn't seen a pullback of more than 5% so far this year and hasn't seen an actual correction (a pullback of 10% or more) since last September, which was quickly bought back up once that down 10% mark was reached. Despite this blue-chip benchmark not exhibiting any material sell-off, over 90% of its 505 components have experienced a 10% or larger correction in 2021 thus far.<blockquote>今年到目前为止，标普500的回调幅度还没有超过 5%，自去年 9 月以来也没有出现过实际的调整（回调 10% 或更多），一旦达到 10% 的下跌关口，该指数就很快被买回。尽管这个蓝筹股基准没有表现出任何材料抛售，但迄今为止，其 505 个组件中有超过 90% 在 2021 年经历了 10% 或更大的调整。</blockquote> Rotations In &amp; Out of Growth &amp; Value<blockquote>增长与价值的进出轮换</blockquote> Investors have kept the stock market's bull drive alive by rotating in and out of growth and value sectors as portfolio's position for the reopening at the beginning of the year, then turned back to growth stocks when the yield surge began to fade mid-May. This performance deviation is clearly illustrated below with Vanguard's growth-oriented ETF (VUG Quick QuoteVUG-Free Report) in the candlesticks and its value-focused ETF (VTV Quick QuoteVTV-Free Report) represented by the orange line.<blockquote>投资者通过在年初重新开盘时轮换进出成长型和价值型板块来保持股市的牛市势头，然后在5月中旬收益率飙升开始消退时又转向成长型股票。下面烛台中的 Vanguard 以增长为导向的 ETF (VUG Quick QuoteVUG-Free Report) 和以价值为导向的 ETF (VTV Quick QuoteVTV-Free Report) 清楚地说明了这种业绩偏差。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80d0680692ab8ada950167692164017e\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"408\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Image Source: TradingView<blockquote>图片来源：TradingView</blockquote> The year-to-date performance divergence between these two stock groupings illustrates that investors &amp; traders are not buying indiscriminately. Meaning that judgment is going into every trade decision (aka stock picking), causing the market to deflate overstretched areas and reallocate into relatively cheaper spaces.<blockquote>这两个股票组合今年迄今为止的表现差异表明，投资者和交易员并没有不分青红皂白地购买。这意味着这种判断会渗透到每一个交易决策（又名选股）中，导致市场收缩过度紧张的领域并重新分配到相对便宜的领域。</blockquote> Accelerating Annualized Returns<blockquote>加速年化回报</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 has remained above an extraordinary 75% annualized return trendline for over 16 months now. Unfortunately, this rate of return isn't even close to sustainable.<blockquote>16 个月来，标普500一直保持在 75% 的年化回报率趋势线之上。不幸的是，这种回报率甚至远未达到可持续水平。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 has averaged 12% upside a year over the past 3 decades. However, the average annual growth rate has aged like fine wine. This blue-chip benchmark has demonstrated an average annualized return of nearly 15% over the past decade, and if narrowed down to just the last 5 years, those annual gains go up to over 16%.<blockquote>过去 30 年来，标普500平均每年上涨 12%。然而，年均增长率却像美酒一样陈年。这一蓝筹股基准在过去十年中的平均年化回报率接近 15%，如果缩小到过去 5 年，这些年收益将超过 16%。</blockquote> The stock market is experiencing swelling average annual gains because of the rapid acceleration of technology that continuously accelerates companies' and our economy's growth outlook. I expect to see continued annualized return acceleration over the next decade as tech makes up a growing portion of the public equity market. Nevertheless, a rolling 75% annualized return out of the S&amp;P 500 isn't viable.<blockquote>由于技术的快速发展不断加速公司和我们经济的增长前景，股市正在经历不断膨胀的年均涨幅。随着科技在公共股票市场中所占份额越来越大，我预计未来十年年化回报率将继续加速。然而，标普500滚动 75% 的年化回报率是不可行的。</blockquote> There may be too much sideline capital (a record 5.5 trillion in money market funds, according to Goldman Sachs (GS Quick QuoteGS-Free Report) for the market to entirely correct. Still, we are due for consolidation over the next few months, aka a rolling correction.<blockquote>可能有太多的边际资本（根据高盛（GS Quick QuoteGS-Free Report）的数据，货币市场基金达到创纪录的5.5万亿美元，市场无法完全纠正。尽管如此，我们仍将在未来几个月进行整合，也就是滚动调整。</blockquote> We are now entering a pivotal point in this maturing market cycle. Q2 earnings season has been tremendous thus far, with earnings soaring 105% on sales up over 22% from a year ago. 91% of the reported companies beating EPS estimates, and over 86% beat top-line projections. The richly valued tech sector has demonstrated awe-inspiring Q2 results, with 100% of them exceeding EPS estimates and over 96% beating on revenues, which seemingly justified frothy valuations in the space.<blockquote>我们现在正进入这个成熟市场周期的关键点。到目前为止，第二季度财报季表现非常出色，盈利飙升 105%，销售额同比增长 22% 以上。91% 的报告公司超出了每股收益预期，超过 86% 的公司超出了营收预测。估值极高的科技行业第二季度业绩令人敬畏，其中 100% 的业绩超出了每股收益预期，超过 96% 的业绩超出了收入预期，这似乎证明了该领域的泡沫估值是合理的。</blockquote> However, analysts are projecting peak earnings growth to be in the rear-view mirror as Q2 earnings season wraps up, and at these rich multiples, valuation compression may be in order. Even with these exceptional quarterly reports and growing full-year estimates, we have seen an undue level of profit-pulling and defensive market positioning. The resurging COVID fears and anticipated shift in monetary policy also weigh on bullish sentiment.<blockquote>然而，分析师预计，随着第二季度财报季的结束，盈利增长峰值将成为过去，在这些丰富的市盈率下，估值可能会压缩。即使有这些出色的季度报告和不断增长的全年预期，我们也看到了过度的利润拉动和防御性市场定位。新冠疫情担忧的死灰复燃和货币政策的预期转变也打压了看涨情绪。</blockquote> Nevertheless, the enormous amount of cash on the bench is still being put to work, with every marginal dip being bought right back up. The national consumer savings rate in the US sits sizably above the last decade's average. Americans are not only participating in the public equity market at a record rate, but they also have plenty of liquidity to keep buying their favorite stocks.<blockquote>尽管如此，板凳上的巨额现金仍在发挥作用，每一次边际下跌都会被买回。美国全国消费者储蓄率远高于过去十年的平均水平。美国人不仅以创纪录的速度参与公共股权市场，而且他们还有充足的流动性来继续购买他们喜欢的股票。</blockquote> Stocks remain the most attractive asset class, with negative real interest rates in the bond market, sky-high commodity prices, highly volatile crypto prices, and pricing pressure that most publicly traded companies have been able to easily transfer to their end-markets (illustrated by Q2 margin results).<blockquote>股票仍然是最具吸引力的资产类别，债券市场的负实际利率、天价商品价格、高度波动的加密货币价格以及大多数上市公司能够轻松转移到终端市场的定价压力（第二季度利润率结果说明）。</blockquote> I expect to see a rolling correction, reflected by a consolidating stock market, instead of this 10%+ correction that analysts have been postulating. Range-bound indexes(less than 10% swings) for some time (month or two) would have the same valuation compressing effect as an all-out correction because earnings would be growing while prices remain muted, leading to shrinking P/E multiples (aka rolling correction).<blockquote>我预计会看到股市盘整所反映的滚动调整，而不是分析师一直假设的 10% 以上的调整。在一段时间（一两个月）内（波动小于 10%）的区间指数（波动小于 10%）会产生与全面修正相同的估值压缩效果，因为收益会增长，而价格保持低迷，导致市盈率缩小（又名滚动修正）。</blockquote> I foresee a sideways broader market trade until the Delta-variant is no longer a global concern. I remain bullish on stocks for the remaining 5 months of 2021 and am confident that the S&amp;P 500 will close out the year higher than it is trading at today.<blockquote>我预计市场交易将横盘整理，直到Delta变体不再是全球关注的问题。在2021年剩余的5个月里，我仍然看好股市，并相信标普500将以高于今天的交易价格结束这一年。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What's Next For The S&P 500: 10% Pullback or Rolling Correction?<blockquote>标普500的下一步是什么：10%回调还是滚动修正？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat's Next For The S&P 500: 10% Pullback or Rolling Correction?<blockquote>标普500的下一步是什么：10%回调还是滚动修正？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzacks2021-08-05 18:08\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe market has become increasingly rational as this 16-month bull market matures, and index-based upside potential dwindles every additional percentage they rally. This is a stock picker's market. Quality stocks in well-positioned sectors will have much higher upside potential than most index-tracking ETFs for the remainder of 2021.<blockquote>随着这16个月的牛市的成熟，市场变得越来越理性，基于指数的上涨潜力每增加一个百分比，就会减少。这是一个选股者的市场。在 2021 年剩余时间里，定位良好的行业中的优质股票将比大多数指数跟踪 ETF 具有更高的上涨潜力。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 hasn't seen a pullback of more than 5% so far this year and hasn't seen an actual correction (a pullback of 10% or more) since last September, which was quickly bought back up once that down 10% mark was reached. Despite this blue-chip benchmark not exhibiting any material sell-off, over 90% of its 505 components have experienced a 10% or larger correction in 2021 thus far.<blockquote>今年到目前为止，标普500的回调幅度还没有超过 5%，自去年 9 月以来也没有出现过实际的调整（回调 10% 或更多），一旦达到 10% 的下跌关口，该指数就很快被买回。尽管这个蓝筹股基准没有表现出任何材料抛售，但迄今为止，其 505 个组件中有超过 90% 在 2021 年经历了 10% 或更大的调整。</blockquote> Rotations In &amp; Out of Growth &amp; Value<blockquote>增长与价值的进出轮换</blockquote> Investors have kept the stock market's bull drive alive by rotating in and out of growth and value sectors as portfolio's position for the reopening at the beginning of the year, then turned back to growth stocks when the yield surge began to fade mid-May. This performance deviation is clearly illustrated below with Vanguard's growth-oriented ETF (VUG Quick QuoteVUG-Free Report) in the candlesticks and its value-focused ETF (VTV Quick QuoteVTV-Free Report) represented by the orange line.<blockquote>投资者通过在年初重新开盘时轮换进出成长型和价值型板块来保持股市的牛市势头，然后在5月中旬收益率飙升开始消退时又转向成长型股票。下面烛台中的 Vanguard 以增长为导向的 ETF (VUG Quick QuoteVUG-Free Report) 和以价值为导向的 ETF (VTV Quick QuoteVTV-Free Report) 清楚地说明了这种业绩偏差。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80d0680692ab8ada950167692164017e\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"408\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Image Source: TradingView<blockquote>图片来源：TradingView</blockquote> The year-to-date performance divergence between these two stock groupings illustrates that investors &amp; traders are not buying indiscriminately. Meaning that judgment is going into every trade decision (aka stock picking), causing the market to deflate overstretched areas and reallocate into relatively cheaper spaces.<blockquote>这两个股票组合今年迄今为止的表现差异表明，投资者和交易员并没有不分青红皂白地购买。这意味着这种判断会渗透到每一个交易决策（又名选股）中，导致市场收缩过度紧张的领域并重新分配到相对便宜的领域。</blockquote> Accelerating Annualized Returns<blockquote>加速年化回报</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 has remained above an extraordinary 75% annualized return trendline for over 16 months now. Unfortunately, this rate of return isn't even close to sustainable.<blockquote>16 个月来，标普500一直保持在 75% 的年化回报率趋势线之上。不幸的是，这种回报率甚至远未达到可持续水平。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 has averaged 12% upside a year over the past 3 decades. However, the average annual growth rate has aged like fine wine. This blue-chip benchmark has demonstrated an average annualized return of nearly 15% over the past decade, and if narrowed down to just the last 5 years, those annual gains go up to over 16%.<blockquote>过去 30 年来，标普500平均每年上涨 12%。然而，年均增长率却像美酒一样陈年。这一蓝筹股基准在过去十年中的平均年化回报率接近 15%，如果缩小到过去 5 年，这些年收益将超过 16%。</blockquote> The stock market is experiencing swelling average annual gains because of the rapid acceleration of technology that continuously accelerates companies' and our economy's growth outlook. I expect to see continued annualized return acceleration over the next decade as tech makes up a growing portion of the public equity market. Nevertheless, a rolling 75% annualized return out of the S&amp;P 500 isn't viable.<blockquote>由于技术的快速发展不断加速公司和我们经济的增长前景，股市正在经历不断膨胀的年均涨幅。随着科技在公共股票市场中所占份额越来越大，我预计未来十年年化回报率将继续加速。然而，标普500滚动 75% 的年化回报率是不可行的。</blockquote> There may be too much sideline capital (a record 5.5 trillion in money market funds, according to Goldman Sachs (GS Quick QuoteGS-Free Report) for the market to entirely correct. Still, we are due for consolidation over the next few months, aka a rolling correction.<blockquote>可能有太多的边际资本（根据高盛（GS Quick QuoteGS-Free Report）的数据，货币市场基金达到创纪录的5.5万亿美元，市场无法完全纠正。尽管如此，我们仍将在未来几个月进行整合，也就是滚动调整。</blockquote> We are now entering a pivotal point in this maturing market cycle. Q2 earnings season has been tremendous thus far, with earnings soaring 105% on sales up over 22% from a year ago. 91% of the reported companies beating EPS estimates, and over 86% beat top-line projections. The richly valued tech sector has demonstrated awe-inspiring Q2 results, with 100% of them exceeding EPS estimates and over 96% beating on revenues, which seemingly justified frothy valuations in the space.<blockquote>我们现在正进入这个成熟市场周期的关键点。到目前为止，第二季度财报季表现非常出色，盈利飙升 105%，销售额同比增长 22% 以上。91% 的报告公司超出了每股收益预期，超过 86% 的公司超出了营收预测。估值极高的科技行业第二季度业绩令人敬畏，其中 100% 的业绩超出了每股收益预期，超过 96% 的业绩超出了收入预期，这似乎证明了该领域的泡沫估值是合理的。</blockquote> However, analysts are projecting peak earnings growth to be in the rear-view mirror as Q2 earnings season wraps up, and at these rich multiples, valuation compression may be in order. Even with these exceptional quarterly reports and growing full-year estimates, we have seen an undue level of profit-pulling and defensive market positioning. The resurging COVID fears and anticipated shift in monetary policy also weigh on bullish sentiment.<blockquote>然而，分析师预计，随着第二季度财报季的结束，盈利增长峰值将成为过去，在这些丰富的市盈率下，估值可能会压缩。即使有这些出色的季度报告和不断增长的全年预期，我们也看到了过度的利润拉动和防御性市场定位。新冠疫情担忧的死灰复燃和货币政策的预期转变也打压了看涨情绪。</blockquote> Nevertheless, the enormous amount of cash on the bench is still being put to work, with every marginal dip being bought right back up. The national consumer savings rate in the US sits sizably above the last decade's average. Americans are not only participating in the public equity market at a record rate, but they also have plenty of liquidity to keep buying their favorite stocks.<blockquote>尽管如此，板凳上的巨额现金仍在发挥作用，每一次边际下跌都会被买回。美国全国消费者储蓄率远高于过去十年的平均水平。美国人不仅以创纪录的速度参与公共股权市场，而且他们还有充足的流动性来继续购买他们喜欢的股票。</blockquote> Stocks remain the most attractive asset class, with negative real interest rates in the bond market, sky-high commodity prices, highly volatile crypto prices, and pricing pressure that most publicly traded companies have been able to easily transfer to their end-markets (illustrated by Q2 margin results).<blockquote>股票仍然是最具吸引力的资产类别，债券市场的负实际利率、天价商品价格、高度波动的加密货币价格以及大多数上市公司能够轻松转移到终端市场的定价压力（第二季度利润率结果说明）。</blockquote> I expect to see a rolling correction, reflected by a consolidating stock market, instead of this 10%+ correction that analysts have been postulating. Range-bound indexes(less than 10% swings) for some time (month or two) would have the same valuation compressing effect as an all-out correction because earnings would be growing while prices remain muted, leading to shrinking P/E multiples (aka rolling correction).<blockquote>我预计会看到股市盘整所反映的滚动调整，而不是分析师一直假设的 10% 以上的调整。在一段时间（一两个月）内（波动小于 10%）的区间指数（波动小于 10%）会产生与全面修正相同的估值压缩效果，因为收益会增长，而价格保持低迷，导致市盈率缩小（又名滚动修正）。</blockquote> I foresee a sideways broader market trade until the Delta-variant is no longer a global concern. I remain bullish on stocks for the remaining 5 months of 2021 and am confident that the S&amp;P 500 will close out the year higher than it is trading at today.<blockquote>我预计市场交易将横盘整理，直到Delta变体不再是全球关注的问题。在2021年剩余的5个月里，我仍然看好股市，并相信标普500将以高于今天的交易价格结束这一年。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zacks.com/commentary/1773639/whats-next-for-the-sp-500-10-pullback-or-rolling-correction?&art_rec=home-home-investment_ideas_stocks-ID09-txt-1278004\">zacks</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zacks.com/commentary/1773639/whats-next-for-the-sp-500-10-pullback-or-rolling-correction?&art_rec=home-home-investment_ideas_stocks-ID09-txt-1278004","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121866583","content_text":"The market has become increasingly rational as this 16-month bull market matures, and index-based upside potential dwindles every additional percentage they rally. This is a stock picker's market. Quality stocks in well-positioned sectors will have much higher upside potential than most index-tracking ETFs for the remainder of 2021.\nThe S&P 500 hasn't seen a pullback of more than 5% so far this year and hasn't seen an actual correction (a pullback of 10% or more) since last September, which was quickly bought back up once that down 10% mark was reached. Despite this blue-chip benchmark not exhibiting any material sell-off, over 90% of its 505 components have experienced a 10% or larger correction in 2021 thus far.\nRotations In & Out of Growth & Value\nInvestors have kept the stock market's bull drive alive by rotating in and out of growth and value sectors as portfolio's position for the reopening at the beginning of the year, then turned back to growth stocks when the yield surge began to fade mid-May. This performance deviation is clearly illustrated below with Vanguard's growth-oriented ETF (VUG Quick QuoteVUG-Free Report) in the candlesticks and its value-focused ETF (VTV Quick QuoteVTV-Free Report) represented by the orange line.\n\nImage Source: TradingView\nThe year-to-date performance divergence between these two stock groupings illustrates that investors & traders are not buying indiscriminately. Meaning that judgment is going into every trade decision (aka stock picking), causing the market to deflate overstretched areas and reallocate into relatively cheaper spaces.\nAccelerating Annualized Returns\nThe S&P 500 has remained above an extraordinary 75% annualized return trendline for over 16 months now. Unfortunately, this rate of return isn't even close to sustainable.\nThe S&P 500 has averaged 12% upside a year over the past 3 decades. However, the average annual growth rate has aged like fine wine. This blue-chip benchmark has demonstrated an average annualized return of nearly 15% over the past decade, and if narrowed down to just the last 5 years, those annual gains go up to over 16%.\nThe stock market is experiencing swelling average annual gains because of the rapid acceleration of technology that continuously accelerates companies' and our economy's growth outlook. I expect to see continued annualized return acceleration over the next decade as tech makes up a growing portion of the public equity market. Nevertheless, a rolling 75% annualized return out of the S&P 500 isn't viable.\nThere may be too much sideline capital (a record 5.5 trillion in money market funds, according to Goldman Sachs (GS Quick QuoteGS-Free Report) for the market to entirely correct. Still, we are due for consolidation over the next few months, aka a rolling correction.\nWe are now entering a pivotal point in this maturing market cycle. Q2 earnings season has been tremendous thus far, with earnings soaring 105% on sales up over 22% from a year ago. 91% of the reported companies beating EPS estimates, and over 86% beat top-line projections. The richly valued tech sector has demonstrated awe-inspiring Q2 results, with 100% of them exceeding EPS estimates and over 96% beating on revenues, which seemingly justified frothy valuations in the space.\nHowever, analysts are projecting peak earnings growth to be in the rear-view mirror as Q2 earnings season wraps up, and at these rich multiples, valuation compression may be in order. Even with these exceptional quarterly reports and growing full-year estimates, we have seen an undue level of profit-pulling and defensive market positioning. The resurging COVID fears and anticipated shift in monetary policy also weigh on bullish sentiment.\nNevertheless, the enormous amount of cash on the bench is still being put to work, with every marginal dip being bought right back up. The national consumer savings rate in the US sits sizably above the last decade's average. Americans are not only participating in the public equity market at a record rate, but they also have plenty of liquidity to keep buying their favorite stocks.\nStocks remain the most attractive asset class, with negative real interest rates in the bond market, sky-high commodity prices, highly volatile crypto prices, and pricing pressure that most publicly traded companies have been able to easily transfer to their end-markets (illustrated by Q2 margin results).\nI expect to see a rolling correction, reflected by a consolidating stock market, instead of this 10%+ correction that analysts have been postulating. Range-bound indexes(less than 10% swings) for some time (month or two) would have the same valuation compressing effect as an all-out correction because earnings would be growing while prices remain muted, leading to shrinking P/E multiples (aka rolling correction).\nI foresee a sideways broader market trade until the Delta-variant is no longer a global concern. I remain bullish on stocks for the remaining 5 months of 2021 and am confident that the S&P 500 will close out the year higher than it is trading at today.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5435979,"gmtCreate":1628163751930,"gmtModify":1631893785589,"authorId":4087374136362780,"author":{"id":4087374136362780,"idStr":"4087374136362780","authorId":4087374136362780,"name":"chocoying","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":899321756,"type":1,"supId":5435856,"prevId":0,"content":"lol","text":"lol","html":"lol"},{"id":5435856,"gmtCreate":1628162476270,"gmtModify":1631893785565,"authorId":3581759598893994,"author":{"id":3581759598893994,"idStr":"3581759598893994","authorId":3581759598893994,"name":"Jia92","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f0c4ac1be2c8822a722a90ccf6bdc7e","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":899321756,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Share?","text":"Share?","html":"Share?"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":899329417,"gmtCreate":1628161953739,"gmtModify":1631892507062,"author":{"id":"3575324916676606","authorId":"3575324916676606","name":"OldMan69","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a241efdf936287f65139662129e8dae4","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3575324916676606","idStr":"3575324916676606"},"htmlText":"Super!","listText":"Super!","text":"Super!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/899329417","repostId":1121866583,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121866583","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628158108,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1121866583?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-05 18:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What's Next For The S&P 500: 10% Pullback or Rolling Correction?<blockquote>标普500的下一步是什么：10%回调还是滚动修正？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121866583","media":"zacks","summary":"The market has become increasingly rational as this 16-month bull market matures, and index-based up","content":"The market has become increasingly rational as this 16-month bull market matures, and index-based upside potential dwindles every additional percentage they rally. This is a stock picker's market. Quality stocks in well-positioned sectors will have much higher upside potential than most index-tracking ETFs for the remainder of 2021.<blockquote>随着这16个月的牛市的成熟，市场变得越来越理性，基于指数的上涨潜力每增加一个百分比，就会减少。这是一个选股者的市场。在 2021 年剩余时间里，定位良好的行业中的优质股票将比大多数指数跟踪 ETF 具有更高的上涨潜力。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 hasn't seen a pullback of more than 5% so far this year and hasn't seen an actual correction (a pullback of 10% or more) since last September, which was quickly bought back up once that down 10% mark was reached. Despite this blue-chip benchmark not exhibiting any material sell-off, over 90% of its 505 components have experienced a 10% or larger correction in 2021 thus far.<blockquote>今年到目前为止，标普500的回调幅度还没有超过 5%，自去年 9 月以来也没有出现过实际的调整（回调 10% 或更多），一旦达到 10% 的下跌关口，该指数就很快被买回。尽管这个蓝筹股基准没有表现出任何材料抛售，但迄今为止，其 505 个组件中有超过 90% 在 2021 年经历了 10% 或更大的调整。</blockquote> Rotations In &amp; Out of Growth &amp; Value<blockquote>增长与价值的进出轮换</blockquote> Investors have kept the stock market's bull drive alive by rotating in and out of growth and value sectors as portfolio's position for the reopening at the beginning of the year, then turned back to growth stocks when the yield surge began to fade mid-May. This performance deviation is clearly illustrated below with Vanguard's growth-oriented ETF (VUG Quick QuoteVUG-Free Report) in the candlesticks and its value-focused ETF (VTV Quick QuoteVTV-Free Report) represented by the orange line.<blockquote>投资者通过在年初重新开盘时轮换进出成长型和价值型板块来保持股市的牛市势头，然后在5月中旬收益率飙升开始消退时又转向成长型股票。下面烛台中的 Vanguard 以增长为导向的 ETF (VUG Quick QuoteVUG-Free Report) 和以价值为导向的 ETF (VTV Quick QuoteVTV-Free Report) 清楚地说明了这种业绩偏差。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80d0680692ab8ada950167692164017e\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"408\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Image Source: TradingView<blockquote>图片来源：TradingView</blockquote> The year-to-date performance divergence between these two stock groupings illustrates that investors &amp; traders are not buying indiscriminately. Meaning that judgment is going into every trade decision (aka stock picking), causing the market to deflate overstretched areas and reallocate into relatively cheaper spaces.<blockquote>这两个股票组合今年迄今为止的表现差异表明，投资者和交易员并没有不分青红皂白地购买。这意味着这种判断会渗透到每一个交易决策（又名选股）中，导致市场收缩过度紧张的领域并重新分配到相对便宜的领域。</blockquote> Accelerating Annualized Returns<blockquote>加速年化回报</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 has remained above an extraordinary 75% annualized return trendline for over 16 months now. Unfortunately, this rate of return isn't even close to sustainable.<blockquote>16 个月来，标普500一直保持在 75% 的年化回报率趋势线之上。不幸的是，这种回报率甚至远未达到可持续水平。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 has averaged 12% upside a year over the past 3 decades. However, the average annual growth rate has aged like fine wine. This blue-chip benchmark has demonstrated an average annualized return of nearly 15% over the past decade, and if narrowed down to just the last 5 years, those annual gains go up to over 16%.<blockquote>过去 30 年来，标普500平均每年上涨 12%。然而，年均增长率却像美酒一样陈年。这一蓝筹股基准在过去十年中的平均年化回报率接近 15%，如果缩小到过去 5 年，这些年收益将超过 16%。</blockquote> The stock market is experiencing swelling average annual gains because of the rapid acceleration of technology that continuously accelerates companies' and our economy's growth outlook. I expect to see continued annualized return acceleration over the next decade as tech makes up a growing portion of the public equity market. Nevertheless, a rolling 75% annualized return out of the S&amp;P 500 isn't viable.<blockquote>由于技术的快速发展不断加速公司和我们经济的增长前景，股市正在经历不断膨胀的年均涨幅。随着科技在公共股票市场中所占份额越来越大，我预计未来十年年化回报率将继续加速。然而，标普500滚动 75% 的年化回报率是不可行的。</blockquote> There may be too much sideline capital (a record 5.5 trillion in money market funds, according to Goldman Sachs (GS Quick QuoteGS-Free Report) for the market to entirely correct. Still, we are due for consolidation over the next few months, aka a rolling correction.<blockquote>可能有太多的边际资本（根据高盛（GS Quick QuoteGS-Free Report）的数据，货币市场基金达到创纪录的5.5万亿美元，市场无法完全纠正。尽管如此，我们仍将在未来几个月进行整合，也就是滚动调整。</blockquote> We are now entering a pivotal point in this maturing market cycle. Q2 earnings season has been tremendous thus far, with earnings soaring 105% on sales up over 22% from a year ago. 91% of the reported companies beating EPS estimates, and over 86% beat top-line projections. The richly valued tech sector has demonstrated awe-inspiring Q2 results, with 100% of them exceeding EPS estimates and over 96% beating on revenues, which seemingly justified frothy valuations in the space.<blockquote>我们现在正进入这个成熟市场周期的关键点。到目前为止，第二季度财报季表现非常出色，盈利飙升 105%，销售额同比增长 22% 以上。91% 的报告公司超出了每股收益预期，超过 86% 的公司超出了营收预测。估值极高的科技行业第二季度业绩令人敬畏，其中 100% 的业绩超出了每股收益预期，超过 96% 的业绩超出了收入预期，这似乎证明了该领域的泡沫估值是合理的。</blockquote> However, analysts are projecting peak earnings growth to be in the rear-view mirror as Q2 earnings season wraps up, and at these rich multiples, valuation compression may be in order. Even with these exceptional quarterly reports and growing full-year estimates, we have seen an undue level of profit-pulling and defensive market positioning. The resurging COVID fears and anticipated shift in monetary policy also weigh on bullish sentiment.<blockquote>然而，分析师预计，随着第二季度财报季的结束，盈利增长峰值将成为过去，在这些丰富的市盈率下，估值可能会压缩。即使有这些出色的季度报告和不断增长的全年预期，我们也看到了过度的利润拉动和防御性市场定位。新冠疫情担忧的死灰复燃和货币政策的预期转变也打压了看涨情绪。</blockquote> Nevertheless, the enormous amount of cash on the bench is still being put to work, with every marginal dip being bought right back up. The national consumer savings rate in the US sits sizably above the last decade's average. Americans are not only participating in the public equity market at a record rate, but they also have plenty of liquidity to keep buying their favorite stocks.<blockquote>尽管如此，板凳上的巨额现金仍在发挥作用，每一次边际下跌都会被买回。美国全国消费者储蓄率远高于过去十年的平均水平。美国人不仅以创纪录的速度参与公共股权市场，而且他们还有充足的流动性来继续购买他们喜欢的股票。</blockquote> Stocks remain the most attractive asset class, with negative real interest rates in the bond market, sky-high commodity prices, highly volatile crypto prices, and pricing pressure that most publicly traded companies have been able to easily transfer to their end-markets (illustrated by Q2 margin results).<blockquote>股票仍然是最具吸引力的资产类别，债券市场的负实际利率、天价商品价格、高度波动的加密货币价格以及大多数上市公司能够轻松转移到终端市场的定价压力（第二季度利润率结果说明）。</blockquote> I expect to see a rolling correction, reflected by a consolidating stock market, instead of this 10%+ correction that analysts have been postulating. Range-bound indexes(less than 10% swings) for some time (month or two) would have the same valuation compressing effect as an all-out correction because earnings would be growing while prices remain muted, leading to shrinking P/E multiples (aka rolling correction).<blockquote>我预计会看到股市盘整所反映的滚动调整，而不是分析师一直假设的 10% 以上的调整。在一段时间（一两个月）内（波动小于 10%）的区间指数（波动小于 10%）会产生与全面修正相同的估值压缩效果，因为收益会增长，而价格保持低迷，导致市盈率缩小（又名滚动修正）。</blockquote> I foresee a sideways broader market trade until the Delta-variant is no longer a global concern. I remain bullish on stocks for the remaining 5 months of 2021 and am confident that the S&amp;P 500 will close out the year higher than it is trading at today.<blockquote>我预计市场交易将横盘整理，直到Delta变体不再是全球关注的问题。在2021年剩余的5个月里，我仍然看好股市，并相信标普500将以高于今天的交易价格结束这一年。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What's Next For The S&P 500: 10% Pullback or Rolling Correction?<blockquote>标普500的下一步是什么：10%回调还是滚动修正？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat's Next For The S&P 500: 10% Pullback or Rolling Correction?<blockquote>标普500的下一步是什么：10%回调还是滚动修正？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzacks2021-08-05 18:08\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe market has become increasingly rational as this 16-month bull market matures, and index-based upside potential dwindles every additional percentage they rally. This is a stock picker's market. Quality stocks in well-positioned sectors will have much higher upside potential than most index-tracking ETFs for the remainder of 2021.<blockquote>随着这16个月的牛市的成熟，市场变得越来越理性，基于指数的上涨潜力每增加一个百分比，就会减少。这是一个选股者的市场。在 2021 年剩余时间里，定位良好的行业中的优质股票将比大多数指数跟踪 ETF 具有更高的上涨潜力。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 hasn't seen a pullback of more than 5% so far this year and hasn't seen an actual correction (a pullback of 10% or more) since last September, which was quickly bought back up once that down 10% mark was reached. Despite this blue-chip benchmark not exhibiting any material sell-off, over 90% of its 505 components have experienced a 10% or larger correction in 2021 thus far.<blockquote>今年到目前为止，标普500的回调幅度还没有超过 5%，自去年 9 月以来也没有出现过实际的调整（回调 10% 或更多），一旦达到 10% 的下跌关口，该指数就很快被买回。尽管这个蓝筹股基准没有表现出任何材料抛售，但迄今为止，其 505 个组件中有超过 90% 在 2021 年经历了 10% 或更大的调整。</blockquote> Rotations In &amp; Out of Growth &amp; Value<blockquote>增长与价值的进出轮换</blockquote> Investors have kept the stock market's bull drive alive by rotating in and out of growth and value sectors as portfolio's position for the reopening at the beginning of the year, then turned back to growth stocks when the yield surge began to fade mid-May. This performance deviation is clearly illustrated below with Vanguard's growth-oriented ETF (VUG Quick QuoteVUG-Free Report) in the candlesticks and its value-focused ETF (VTV Quick QuoteVTV-Free Report) represented by the orange line.<blockquote>投资者通过在年初重新开盘时轮换进出成长型和价值型板块来保持股市的牛市势头，然后在5月中旬收益率飙升开始消退时又转向成长型股票。下面烛台中的 Vanguard 以增长为导向的 ETF (VUG Quick QuoteVUG-Free Report) 和以价值为导向的 ETF (VTV Quick QuoteVTV-Free Report) 清楚地说明了这种业绩偏差。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80d0680692ab8ada950167692164017e\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"408\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Image Source: TradingView<blockquote>图片来源：TradingView</blockquote> The year-to-date performance divergence between these two stock groupings illustrates that investors &amp; traders are not buying indiscriminately. Meaning that judgment is going into every trade decision (aka stock picking), causing the market to deflate overstretched areas and reallocate into relatively cheaper spaces.<blockquote>这两个股票组合今年迄今为止的表现差异表明，投资者和交易员并没有不分青红皂白地购买。这意味着这种判断会渗透到每一个交易决策（又名选股）中，导致市场收缩过度紧张的领域并重新分配到相对便宜的领域。</blockquote> Accelerating Annualized Returns<blockquote>加速年化回报</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 has remained above an extraordinary 75% annualized return trendline for over 16 months now. Unfortunately, this rate of return isn't even close to sustainable.<blockquote>16 个月来，标普500一直保持在 75% 的年化回报率趋势线之上。不幸的是，这种回报率甚至远未达到可持续水平。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 has averaged 12% upside a year over the past 3 decades. However, the average annual growth rate has aged like fine wine. This blue-chip benchmark has demonstrated an average annualized return of nearly 15% over the past decade, and if narrowed down to just the last 5 years, those annual gains go up to over 16%.<blockquote>过去 30 年来，标普500平均每年上涨 12%。然而，年均增长率却像美酒一样陈年。这一蓝筹股基准在过去十年中的平均年化回报率接近 15%，如果缩小到过去 5 年，这些年收益将超过 16%。</blockquote> The stock market is experiencing swelling average annual gains because of the rapid acceleration of technology that continuously accelerates companies' and our economy's growth outlook. I expect to see continued annualized return acceleration over the next decade as tech makes up a growing portion of the public equity market. Nevertheless, a rolling 75% annualized return out of the S&amp;P 500 isn't viable.<blockquote>由于技术的快速发展不断加速公司和我们经济的增长前景，股市正在经历不断膨胀的年均涨幅。随着科技在公共股票市场中所占份额越来越大，我预计未来十年年化回报率将继续加速。然而，标普500滚动 75% 的年化回报率是不可行的。</blockquote> There may be too much sideline capital (a record 5.5 trillion in money market funds, according to Goldman Sachs (GS Quick QuoteGS-Free Report) for the market to entirely correct. Still, we are due for consolidation over the next few months, aka a rolling correction.<blockquote>可能有太多的边际资本（根据高盛（GS Quick QuoteGS-Free Report）的数据，货币市场基金达到创纪录的5.5万亿美元，市场无法完全纠正。尽管如此，我们仍将在未来几个月进行整合，也就是滚动调整。</blockquote> We are now entering a pivotal point in this maturing market cycle. Q2 earnings season has been tremendous thus far, with earnings soaring 105% on sales up over 22% from a year ago. 91% of the reported companies beating EPS estimates, and over 86% beat top-line projections. The richly valued tech sector has demonstrated awe-inspiring Q2 results, with 100% of them exceeding EPS estimates and over 96% beating on revenues, which seemingly justified frothy valuations in the space.<blockquote>我们现在正进入这个成熟市场周期的关键点。到目前为止，第二季度财报季表现非常出色，盈利飙升 105%，销售额同比增长 22% 以上。91% 的报告公司超出了每股收益预期，超过 86% 的公司超出了营收预测。估值极高的科技行业第二季度业绩令人敬畏，其中 100% 的业绩超出了每股收益预期，超过 96% 的业绩超出了收入预期，这似乎证明了该领域的泡沫估值是合理的。</blockquote> However, analysts are projecting peak earnings growth to be in the rear-view mirror as Q2 earnings season wraps up, and at these rich multiples, valuation compression may be in order. Even with these exceptional quarterly reports and growing full-year estimates, we have seen an undue level of profit-pulling and defensive market positioning. The resurging COVID fears and anticipated shift in monetary policy also weigh on bullish sentiment.<blockquote>然而，分析师预计，随着第二季度财报季的结束，盈利增长峰值将成为过去，在这些丰富的市盈率下，估值可能会压缩。即使有这些出色的季度报告和不断增长的全年预期，我们也看到了过度的利润拉动和防御性市场定位。新冠疫情担忧的死灰复燃和货币政策的预期转变也打压了看涨情绪。</blockquote> Nevertheless, the enormous amount of cash on the bench is still being put to work, with every marginal dip being bought right back up. The national consumer savings rate in the US sits sizably above the last decade's average. Americans are not only participating in the public equity market at a record rate, but they also have plenty of liquidity to keep buying their favorite stocks.<blockquote>尽管如此，板凳上的巨额现金仍在发挥作用，每一次边际下跌都会被买回。美国全国消费者储蓄率远高于过去十年的平均水平。美国人不仅以创纪录的速度参与公共股权市场，而且他们还有充足的流动性来继续购买他们喜欢的股票。</blockquote> Stocks remain the most attractive asset class, with negative real interest rates in the bond market, sky-high commodity prices, highly volatile crypto prices, and pricing pressure that most publicly traded companies have been able to easily transfer to their end-markets (illustrated by Q2 margin results).<blockquote>股票仍然是最具吸引力的资产类别，债券市场的负实际利率、天价商品价格、高度波动的加密货币价格以及大多数上市公司能够轻松转移到终端市场的定价压力（第二季度利润率结果说明）。</blockquote> I expect to see a rolling correction, reflected by a consolidating stock market, instead of this 10%+ correction that analysts have been postulating. Range-bound indexes(less than 10% swings) for some time (month or two) would have the same valuation compressing effect as an all-out correction because earnings would be growing while prices remain muted, leading to shrinking P/E multiples (aka rolling correction).<blockquote>我预计会看到股市盘整所反映的滚动调整，而不是分析师一直假设的 10% 以上的调整。在一段时间（一两个月）内（波动小于 10%）的区间指数（波动小于 10%）会产生与全面修正相同的估值压缩效果，因为收益会增长，而价格保持低迷，导致市盈率缩小（又名滚动修正）。</blockquote> I foresee a sideways broader market trade until the Delta-variant is no longer a global concern. I remain bullish on stocks for the remaining 5 months of 2021 and am confident that the S&amp;P 500 will close out the year higher than it is trading at today.<blockquote>我预计市场交易将横盘整理，直到Delta变体不再是全球关注的问题。在2021年剩余的5个月里，我仍然看好股市，并相信标普500将以高于今天的交易价格结束这一年。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zacks.com/commentary/1773639/whats-next-for-the-sp-500-10-pullback-or-rolling-correction?&art_rec=home-home-investment_ideas_stocks-ID09-txt-1278004\">zacks</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zacks.com/commentary/1773639/whats-next-for-the-sp-500-10-pullback-or-rolling-correction?&art_rec=home-home-investment_ideas_stocks-ID09-txt-1278004","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121866583","content_text":"The market has become increasingly rational as this 16-month bull market matures, and index-based upside potential dwindles every additional percentage they rally. This is a stock picker's market. Quality stocks in well-positioned sectors will have much higher upside potential than most index-tracking ETFs for the remainder of 2021.\nThe S&P 500 hasn't seen a pullback of more than 5% so far this year and hasn't seen an actual correction (a pullback of 10% or more) since last September, which was quickly bought back up once that down 10% mark was reached. Despite this blue-chip benchmark not exhibiting any material sell-off, over 90% of its 505 components have experienced a 10% or larger correction in 2021 thus far.\nRotations In & Out of Growth & Value\nInvestors have kept the stock market's bull drive alive by rotating in and out of growth and value sectors as portfolio's position for the reopening at the beginning of the year, then turned back to growth stocks when the yield surge began to fade mid-May. This performance deviation is clearly illustrated below with Vanguard's growth-oriented ETF (VUG Quick QuoteVUG-Free Report) in the candlesticks and its value-focused ETF (VTV Quick QuoteVTV-Free Report) represented by the orange line.\n\nImage Source: TradingView\nThe year-to-date performance divergence between these two stock groupings illustrates that investors & traders are not buying indiscriminately. Meaning that judgment is going into every trade decision (aka stock picking), causing the market to deflate overstretched areas and reallocate into relatively cheaper spaces.\nAccelerating Annualized Returns\nThe S&P 500 has remained above an extraordinary 75% annualized return trendline for over 16 months now. Unfortunately, this rate of return isn't even close to sustainable.\nThe S&P 500 has averaged 12% upside a year over the past 3 decades. However, the average annual growth rate has aged like fine wine. This blue-chip benchmark has demonstrated an average annualized return of nearly 15% over the past decade, and if narrowed down to just the last 5 years, those annual gains go up to over 16%.\nThe stock market is experiencing swelling average annual gains because of the rapid acceleration of technology that continuously accelerates companies' and our economy's growth outlook. I expect to see continued annualized return acceleration over the next decade as tech makes up a growing portion of the public equity market. Nevertheless, a rolling 75% annualized return out of the S&P 500 isn't viable.\nThere may be too much sideline capital (a record 5.5 trillion in money market funds, according to Goldman Sachs (GS Quick QuoteGS-Free Report) for the market to entirely correct. Still, we are due for consolidation over the next few months, aka a rolling correction.\nWe are now entering a pivotal point in this maturing market cycle. Q2 earnings season has been tremendous thus far, with earnings soaring 105% on sales up over 22% from a year ago. 91% of the reported companies beating EPS estimates, and over 86% beat top-line projections. The richly valued tech sector has demonstrated awe-inspiring Q2 results, with 100% of them exceeding EPS estimates and over 96% beating on revenues, which seemingly justified frothy valuations in the space.\nHowever, analysts are projecting peak earnings growth to be in the rear-view mirror as Q2 earnings season wraps up, and at these rich multiples, valuation compression may be in order. Even with these exceptional quarterly reports and growing full-year estimates, we have seen an undue level of profit-pulling and defensive market positioning. The resurging COVID fears and anticipated shift in monetary policy also weigh on bullish sentiment.\nNevertheless, the enormous amount of cash on the bench is still being put to work, with every marginal dip being bought right back up. The national consumer savings rate in the US sits sizably above the last decade's average. Americans are not only participating in the public equity market at a record rate, but they also have plenty of liquidity to keep buying their favorite stocks.\nStocks remain the most attractive asset class, with negative real interest rates in the bond market, sky-high commodity prices, highly volatile crypto prices, and pricing pressure that most publicly traded companies have been able to easily transfer to their end-markets (illustrated by Q2 margin results).\nI expect to see a rolling correction, reflected by a consolidating stock market, instead of this 10%+ correction that analysts have been postulating. Range-bound indexes(less than 10% swings) for some time (month or two) would have the same valuation compressing effect as an all-out correction because earnings would be growing while prices remain muted, leading to shrinking P/E multiples (aka rolling correction).\nI foresee a sideways broader market trade until the Delta-variant is no longer a global concern. I remain bullish on stocks for the remaining 5 months of 2021 and am confident that the S&P 500 will close out the year higher than it is trading at today.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":899387770,"gmtCreate":1628160847090,"gmtModify":1633753062755,"author":{"id":"3553224628095486","authorId":"3553224628095486","name":"WW1012","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f992cdfebad899a930707fdd9a236024","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3553224628095486","idStr":"3553224628095486"},"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/899387770","repostId":1121866583,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121866583","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628158108,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1121866583?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-05 18:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What's Next For The S&P 500: 10% Pullback or Rolling Correction?<blockquote>标普500的下一步是什么：10%回调还是滚动修正？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121866583","media":"zacks","summary":"The market has become increasingly rational as this 16-month bull market matures, and index-based up","content":"The market has become increasingly rational as this 16-month bull market matures, and index-based upside potential dwindles every additional percentage they rally. This is a stock picker's market. Quality stocks in well-positioned sectors will have much higher upside potential than most index-tracking ETFs for the remainder of 2021.<blockquote>随着这16个月的牛市的成熟，市场变得越来越理性，基于指数的上涨潜力每增加一个百分比，就会减少。这是一个选股者的市场。在 2021 年剩余时间里，定位良好的行业中的优质股票将比大多数指数跟踪 ETF 具有更高的上涨潜力。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 hasn't seen a pullback of more than 5% so far this year and hasn't seen an actual correction (a pullback of 10% or more) since last September, which was quickly bought back up once that down 10% mark was reached. Despite this blue-chip benchmark not exhibiting any material sell-off, over 90% of its 505 components have experienced a 10% or larger correction in 2021 thus far.<blockquote>今年到目前为止，标普500的回调幅度还没有超过 5%，自去年 9 月以来也没有出现过实际的调整（回调 10% 或更多），一旦达到 10% 的下跌关口，该指数就很快被买回。尽管这个蓝筹股基准没有表现出任何材料抛售，但迄今为止，其 505 个组件中有超过 90% 在 2021 年经历了 10% 或更大的调整。</blockquote> Rotations In &amp; Out of Growth &amp; Value<blockquote>增长与价值的进出轮换</blockquote> Investors have kept the stock market's bull drive alive by rotating in and out of growth and value sectors as portfolio's position for the reopening at the beginning of the year, then turned back to growth stocks when the yield surge began to fade mid-May. This performance deviation is clearly illustrated below with Vanguard's growth-oriented ETF (VUG Quick QuoteVUG-Free Report) in the candlesticks and its value-focused ETF (VTV Quick QuoteVTV-Free Report) represented by the orange line.<blockquote>投资者通过在年初重新开盘时轮换进出成长型和价值型板块来保持股市的牛市势头，然后在5月中旬收益率飙升开始消退时又转向成长型股票。下面烛台中的 Vanguard 以增长为导向的 ETF (VUG Quick QuoteVUG-Free Report) 和以价值为导向的 ETF (VTV Quick QuoteVTV-Free Report) 清楚地说明了这种业绩偏差。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80d0680692ab8ada950167692164017e\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"408\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Image Source: TradingView<blockquote>图片来源：TradingView</blockquote> The year-to-date performance divergence between these two stock groupings illustrates that investors &amp; traders are not buying indiscriminately. Meaning that judgment is going into every trade decision (aka stock picking), causing the market to deflate overstretched areas and reallocate into relatively cheaper spaces.<blockquote>这两个股票组合今年迄今为止的表现差异表明，投资者和交易员并没有不分青红皂白地购买。这意味着这种判断会渗透到每一个交易决策（又名选股）中，导致市场收缩过度紧张的领域并重新分配到相对便宜的领域。</blockquote> Accelerating Annualized Returns<blockquote>加速年化回报</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 has remained above an extraordinary 75% annualized return trendline for over 16 months now. Unfortunately, this rate of return isn't even close to sustainable.<blockquote>16 个月来，标普500一直保持在 75% 的年化回报率趋势线之上。不幸的是，这种回报率甚至远未达到可持续水平。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 has averaged 12% upside a year over the past 3 decades. However, the average annual growth rate has aged like fine wine. This blue-chip benchmark has demonstrated an average annualized return of nearly 15% over the past decade, and if narrowed down to just the last 5 years, those annual gains go up to over 16%.<blockquote>过去 30 年来，标普500平均每年上涨 12%。然而，年均增长率却像美酒一样陈年。这一蓝筹股基准在过去十年中的平均年化回报率接近 15%，如果缩小到过去 5 年，这些年收益将超过 16%。</blockquote> The stock market is experiencing swelling average annual gains because of the rapid acceleration of technology that continuously accelerates companies' and our economy's growth outlook. I expect to see continued annualized return acceleration over the next decade as tech makes up a growing portion of the public equity market. Nevertheless, a rolling 75% annualized return out of the S&amp;P 500 isn't viable.<blockquote>由于技术的快速发展不断加速公司和我们经济的增长前景，股市正在经历不断膨胀的年均涨幅。随着科技在公共股票市场中所占份额越来越大，我预计未来十年年化回报率将继续加速。然而，标普500滚动 75% 的年化回报率是不可行的。</blockquote> There may be too much sideline capital (a record 5.5 trillion in money market funds, according to Goldman Sachs (GS Quick QuoteGS-Free Report) for the market to entirely correct. Still, we are due for consolidation over the next few months, aka a rolling correction.<blockquote>可能有太多的边际资本（根据高盛（GS Quick QuoteGS-Free Report）的数据，货币市场基金达到创纪录的5.5万亿美元，市场无法完全纠正。尽管如此，我们仍将在未来几个月进行整合，也就是滚动调整。</blockquote> We are now entering a pivotal point in this maturing market cycle. Q2 earnings season has been tremendous thus far, with earnings soaring 105% on sales up over 22% from a year ago. 91% of the reported companies beating EPS estimates, and over 86% beat top-line projections. The richly valued tech sector has demonstrated awe-inspiring Q2 results, with 100% of them exceeding EPS estimates and over 96% beating on revenues, which seemingly justified frothy valuations in the space.<blockquote>我们现在正进入这个成熟市场周期的关键点。到目前为止，第二季度财报季表现非常出色，盈利飙升 105%，销售额同比增长 22% 以上。91% 的报告公司超出了每股收益预期，超过 86% 的公司超出了营收预测。估值极高的科技行业第二季度业绩令人敬畏，其中 100% 的业绩超出了每股收益预期，超过 96% 的业绩超出了收入预期，这似乎证明了该领域的泡沫估值是合理的。</blockquote> However, analysts are projecting peak earnings growth to be in the rear-view mirror as Q2 earnings season wraps up, and at these rich multiples, valuation compression may be in order. Even with these exceptional quarterly reports and growing full-year estimates, we have seen an undue level of profit-pulling and defensive market positioning. The resurging COVID fears and anticipated shift in monetary policy also weigh on bullish sentiment.<blockquote>然而，分析师预计，随着第二季度财报季的结束，盈利增长峰值将成为过去，在这些丰富的市盈率下，估值可能会压缩。即使有这些出色的季度报告和不断增长的全年预期，我们也看到了过度的利润拉动和防御性市场定位。新冠疫情担忧的死灰复燃和货币政策的预期转变也打压了看涨情绪。</blockquote> Nevertheless, the enormous amount of cash on the bench is still being put to work, with every marginal dip being bought right back up. The national consumer savings rate in the US sits sizably above the last decade's average. Americans are not only participating in the public equity market at a record rate, but they also have plenty of liquidity to keep buying their favorite stocks.<blockquote>尽管如此，板凳上的巨额现金仍在发挥作用，每一次边际下跌都会被买回。美国全国消费者储蓄率远高于过去十年的平均水平。美国人不仅以创纪录的速度参与公共股权市场，而且他们还有充足的流动性来继续购买他们喜欢的股票。</blockquote> Stocks remain the most attractive asset class, with negative real interest rates in the bond market, sky-high commodity prices, highly volatile crypto prices, and pricing pressure that most publicly traded companies have been able to easily transfer to their end-markets (illustrated by Q2 margin results).<blockquote>股票仍然是最具吸引力的资产类别，债券市场的负实际利率、天价商品价格、高度波动的加密货币价格以及大多数上市公司能够轻松转移到终端市场的定价压力（第二季度利润率结果说明）。</blockquote> I expect to see a rolling correction, reflected by a consolidating stock market, instead of this 10%+ correction that analysts have been postulating. Range-bound indexes(less than 10% swings) for some time (month or two) would have the same valuation compressing effect as an all-out correction because earnings would be growing while prices remain muted, leading to shrinking P/E multiples (aka rolling correction).<blockquote>我预计会看到股市盘整所反映的滚动调整，而不是分析师一直假设的 10% 以上的调整。在一段时间（一两个月）内（波动小于 10%）的区间指数（波动小于 10%）会产生与全面修正相同的估值压缩效果，因为收益会增长，而价格保持低迷，导致市盈率缩小（又名滚动修正）。</blockquote> I foresee a sideways broader market trade until the Delta-variant is no longer a global concern. I remain bullish on stocks for the remaining 5 months of 2021 and am confident that the S&amp;P 500 will close out the year higher than it is trading at today.<blockquote>我预计市场交易将横盘整理，直到Delta变体不再是全球关注的问题。在2021年剩余的5个月里，我仍然看好股市，并相信标普500将以高于今天的交易价格结束这一年。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What's Next For The S&P 500: 10% Pullback or Rolling Correction?<blockquote>标普500的下一步是什么：10%回调还是滚动修正？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat's Next For The S&P 500: 10% Pullback or Rolling Correction?<blockquote>标普500的下一步是什么：10%回调还是滚动修正？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzacks2021-08-05 18:08\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe market has become increasingly rational as this 16-month bull market matures, and index-based upside potential dwindles every additional percentage they rally. This is a stock picker's market. Quality stocks in well-positioned sectors will have much higher upside potential than most index-tracking ETFs for the remainder of 2021.<blockquote>随着这16个月的牛市的成熟，市场变得越来越理性，基于指数的上涨潜力每增加一个百分比，就会减少。这是一个选股者的市场。在 2021 年剩余时间里，定位良好的行业中的优质股票将比大多数指数跟踪 ETF 具有更高的上涨潜力。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 hasn't seen a pullback of more than 5% so far this year and hasn't seen an actual correction (a pullback of 10% or more) since last September, which was quickly bought back up once that down 10% mark was reached. Despite this blue-chip benchmark not exhibiting any material sell-off, over 90% of its 505 components have experienced a 10% or larger correction in 2021 thus far.<blockquote>今年到目前为止，标普500的回调幅度还没有超过 5%，自去年 9 月以来也没有出现过实际的调整（回调 10% 或更多），一旦达到 10% 的下跌关口，该指数就很快被买回。尽管这个蓝筹股基准没有表现出任何材料抛售，但迄今为止，其 505 个组件中有超过 90% 在 2021 年经历了 10% 或更大的调整。</blockquote> Rotations In &amp; Out of Growth &amp; Value<blockquote>增长与价值的进出轮换</blockquote> Investors have kept the stock market's bull drive alive by rotating in and out of growth and value sectors as portfolio's position for the reopening at the beginning of the year, then turned back to growth stocks when the yield surge began to fade mid-May. This performance deviation is clearly illustrated below with Vanguard's growth-oriented ETF (VUG Quick QuoteVUG-Free Report) in the candlesticks and its value-focused ETF (VTV Quick QuoteVTV-Free Report) represented by the orange line.<blockquote>投资者通过在年初重新开盘时轮换进出成长型和价值型板块来保持股市的牛市势头，然后在5月中旬收益率飙升开始消退时又转向成长型股票。下面烛台中的 Vanguard 以增长为导向的 ETF (VUG Quick QuoteVUG-Free Report) 和以价值为导向的 ETF (VTV Quick QuoteVTV-Free Report) 清楚地说明了这种业绩偏差。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80d0680692ab8ada950167692164017e\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"408\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Image Source: TradingView<blockquote>图片来源：TradingView</blockquote> The year-to-date performance divergence between these two stock groupings illustrates that investors &amp; traders are not buying indiscriminately. Meaning that judgment is going into every trade decision (aka stock picking), causing the market to deflate overstretched areas and reallocate into relatively cheaper spaces.<blockquote>这两个股票组合今年迄今为止的表现差异表明，投资者和交易员并没有不分青红皂白地购买。这意味着这种判断会渗透到每一个交易决策（又名选股）中，导致市场收缩过度紧张的领域并重新分配到相对便宜的领域。</blockquote> Accelerating Annualized Returns<blockquote>加速年化回报</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 has remained above an extraordinary 75% annualized return trendline for over 16 months now. Unfortunately, this rate of return isn't even close to sustainable.<blockquote>16 个月来，标普500一直保持在 75% 的年化回报率趋势线之上。不幸的是，这种回报率甚至远未达到可持续水平。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 has averaged 12% upside a year over the past 3 decades. However, the average annual growth rate has aged like fine wine. This blue-chip benchmark has demonstrated an average annualized return of nearly 15% over the past decade, and if narrowed down to just the last 5 years, those annual gains go up to over 16%.<blockquote>过去 30 年来，标普500平均每年上涨 12%。然而，年均增长率却像美酒一样陈年。这一蓝筹股基准在过去十年中的平均年化回报率接近 15%，如果缩小到过去 5 年，这些年收益将超过 16%。</blockquote> The stock market is experiencing swelling average annual gains because of the rapid acceleration of technology that continuously accelerates companies' and our economy's growth outlook. I expect to see continued annualized return acceleration over the next decade as tech makes up a growing portion of the public equity market. Nevertheless, a rolling 75% annualized return out of the S&amp;P 500 isn't viable.<blockquote>由于技术的快速发展不断加速公司和我们经济的增长前景，股市正在经历不断膨胀的年均涨幅。随着科技在公共股票市场中所占份额越来越大，我预计未来十年年化回报率将继续加速。然而，标普500滚动 75% 的年化回报率是不可行的。</blockquote> There may be too much sideline capital (a record 5.5 trillion in money market funds, according to Goldman Sachs (GS Quick QuoteGS-Free Report) for the market to entirely correct. Still, we are due for consolidation over the next few months, aka a rolling correction.<blockquote>可能有太多的边际资本（根据高盛（GS Quick QuoteGS-Free Report）的数据，货币市场基金达到创纪录的5.5万亿美元，市场无法完全纠正。尽管如此，我们仍将在未来几个月进行整合，也就是滚动调整。</blockquote> We are now entering a pivotal point in this maturing market cycle. Q2 earnings season has been tremendous thus far, with earnings soaring 105% on sales up over 22% from a year ago. 91% of the reported companies beating EPS estimates, and over 86% beat top-line projections. The richly valued tech sector has demonstrated awe-inspiring Q2 results, with 100% of them exceeding EPS estimates and over 96% beating on revenues, which seemingly justified frothy valuations in the space.<blockquote>我们现在正进入这个成熟市场周期的关键点。到目前为止，第二季度财报季表现非常出色，盈利飙升 105%，销售额同比增长 22% 以上。91% 的报告公司超出了每股收益预期，超过 86% 的公司超出了营收预测。估值极高的科技行业第二季度业绩令人敬畏，其中 100% 的业绩超出了每股收益预期，超过 96% 的业绩超出了收入预期，这似乎证明了该领域的泡沫估值是合理的。</blockquote> However, analysts are projecting peak earnings growth to be in the rear-view mirror as Q2 earnings season wraps up, and at these rich multiples, valuation compression may be in order. Even with these exceptional quarterly reports and growing full-year estimates, we have seen an undue level of profit-pulling and defensive market positioning. The resurging COVID fears and anticipated shift in monetary policy also weigh on bullish sentiment.<blockquote>然而，分析师预计，随着第二季度财报季的结束，盈利增长峰值将成为过去，在这些丰富的市盈率下，估值可能会压缩。即使有这些出色的季度报告和不断增长的全年预期，我们也看到了过度的利润拉动和防御性市场定位。新冠疫情担忧的死灰复燃和货币政策的预期转变也打压了看涨情绪。</blockquote> Nevertheless, the enormous amount of cash on the bench is still being put to work, with every marginal dip being bought right back up. The national consumer savings rate in the US sits sizably above the last decade's average. Americans are not only participating in the public equity market at a record rate, but they also have plenty of liquidity to keep buying their favorite stocks.<blockquote>尽管如此，板凳上的巨额现金仍在发挥作用，每一次边际下跌都会被买回。美国全国消费者储蓄率远高于过去十年的平均水平。美国人不仅以创纪录的速度参与公共股权市场，而且他们还有充足的流动性来继续购买他们喜欢的股票。</blockquote> Stocks remain the most attractive asset class, with negative real interest rates in the bond market, sky-high commodity prices, highly volatile crypto prices, and pricing pressure that most publicly traded companies have been able to easily transfer to their end-markets (illustrated by Q2 margin results).<blockquote>股票仍然是最具吸引力的资产类别，债券市场的负实际利率、天价商品价格、高度波动的加密货币价格以及大多数上市公司能够轻松转移到终端市场的定价压力（第二季度利润率结果说明）。</blockquote> I expect to see a rolling correction, reflected by a consolidating stock market, instead of this 10%+ correction that analysts have been postulating. Range-bound indexes(less than 10% swings) for some time (month or two) would have the same valuation compressing effect as an all-out correction because earnings would be growing while prices remain muted, leading to shrinking P/E multiples (aka rolling correction).<blockquote>我预计会看到股市盘整所反映的滚动调整，而不是分析师一直假设的 10% 以上的调整。在一段时间（一两个月）内（波动小于 10%）的区间指数（波动小于 10%）会产生与全面修正相同的估值压缩效果，因为收益会增长，而价格保持低迷，导致市盈率缩小（又名滚动修正）。</blockquote> I foresee a sideways broader market trade until the Delta-variant is no longer a global concern. I remain bullish on stocks for the remaining 5 months of 2021 and am confident that the S&amp;P 500 will close out the year higher than it is trading at today.<blockquote>我预计市场交易将横盘整理，直到Delta变体不再是全球关注的问题。在2021年剩余的5个月里，我仍然看好股市，并相信标普500将以高于今天的交易价格结束这一年。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zacks.com/commentary/1773639/whats-next-for-the-sp-500-10-pullback-or-rolling-correction?&art_rec=home-home-investment_ideas_stocks-ID09-txt-1278004\">zacks</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zacks.com/commentary/1773639/whats-next-for-the-sp-500-10-pullback-or-rolling-correction?&art_rec=home-home-investment_ideas_stocks-ID09-txt-1278004","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121866583","content_text":"The market has become increasingly rational as this 16-month bull market matures, and index-based upside potential dwindles every additional percentage they rally. This is a stock picker's market. Quality stocks in well-positioned sectors will have much higher upside potential than most index-tracking ETFs for the remainder of 2021.\nThe S&P 500 hasn't seen a pullback of more than 5% so far this year and hasn't seen an actual correction (a pullback of 10% or more) since last September, which was quickly bought back up once that down 10% mark was reached. Despite this blue-chip benchmark not exhibiting any material sell-off, over 90% of its 505 components have experienced a 10% or larger correction in 2021 thus far.\nRotations In & Out of Growth & Value\nInvestors have kept the stock market's bull drive alive by rotating in and out of growth and value sectors as portfolio's position for the reopening at the beginning of the year, then turned back to growth stocks when the yield surge began to fade mid-May. This performance deviation is clearly illustrated below with Vanguard's growth-oriented ETF (VUG Quick QuoteVUG-Free Report) in the candlesticks and its value-focused ETF (VTV Quick QuoteVTV-Free Report) represented by the orange line.\n\nImage Source: TradingView\nThe year-to-date performance divergence between these two stock groupings illustrates that investors & traders are not buying indiscriminately. Meaning that judgment is going into every trade decision (aka stock picking), causing the market to deflate overstretched areas and reallocate into relatively cheaper spaces.\nAccelerating Annualized Returns\nThe S&P 500 has remained above an extraordinary 75% annualized return trendline for over 16 months now. Unfortunately, this rate of return isn't even close to sustainable.\nThe S&P 500 has averaged 12% upside a year over the past 3 decades. However, the average annual growth rate has aged like fine wine. This blue-chip benchmark has demonstrated an average annualized return of nearly 15% over the past decade, and if narrowed down to just the last 5 years, those annual gains go up to over 16%.\nThe stock market is experiencing swelling average annual gains because of the rapid acceleration of technology that continuously accelerates companies' and our economy's growth outlook. I expect to see continued annualized return acceleration over the next decade as tech makes up a growing portion of the public equity market. Nevertheless, a rolling 75% annualized return out of the S&P 500 isn't viable.\nThere may be too much sideline capital (a record 5.5 trillion in money market funds, according to Goldman Sachs (GS Quick QuoteGS-Free Report) for the market to entirely correct. Still, we are due for consolidation over the next few months, aka a rolling correction.\nWe are now entering a pivotal point in this maturing market cycle. Q2 earnings season has been tremendous thus far, with earnings soaring 105% on sales up over 22% from a year ago. 91% of the reported companies beating EPS estimates, and over 86% beat top-line projections. The richly valued tech sector has demonstrated awe-inspiring Q2 results, with 100% of them exceeding EPS estimates and over 96% beating on revenues, which seemingly justified frothy valuations in the space.\nHowever, analysts are projecting peak earnings growth to be in the rear-view mirror as Q2 earnings season wraps up, and at these rich multiples, valuation compression may be in order. Even with these exceptional quarterly reports and growing full-year estimates, we have seen an undue level of profit-pulling and defensive market positioning. The resurging COVID fears and anticipated shift in monetary policy also weigh on bullish sentiment.\nNevertheless, the enormous amount of cash on the bench is still being put to work, with every marginal dip being bought right back up. The national consumer savings rate in the US sits sizably above the last decade's average. Americans are not only participating in the public equity market at a record rate, but they also have plenty of liquidity to keep buying their favorite stocks.\nStocks remain the most attractive asset class, with negative real interest rates in the bond market, sky-high commodity prices, highly volatile crypto prices, and pricing pressure that most publicly traded companies have been able to easily transfer to their end-markets (illustrated by Q2 margin results).\nI expect to see a rolling correction, reflected by a consolidating stock market, instead of this 10%+ correction that analysts have been postulating. Range-bound indexes(less than 10% swings) for some time (month or two) would have the same valuation compressing effect as an all-out correction because earnings would be growing while prices remain muted, leading to shrinking P/E multiples (aka rolling correction).\nI foresee a sideways broader market trade until the Delta-variant is no longer a global concern. I remain bullish on stocks for the remaining 5 months of 2021 and am confident that the S&P 500 will close out the year higher than it is trading at today.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5435687,"gmtCreate":1628160856385,"gmtModify":1635159404514,"authorId":3553224628095486,"author":{"id":3553224628095486,"idStr":"3553224628095486","authorId":3553224628095486,"name":"WW1012","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f992cdfebad899a930707fdd9a236024","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":899387770,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Good","text":"Good","html":"Good"},{"id":5435794,"gmtCreate":1628161963422,"gmtModify":1635159395919,"authorId":3575324916676606,"author":{"id":3575324916676606,"idStr":"3575324916676606","authorId":3575324916676606,"name":"OldMan69","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a241efdf936287f65139662129e8dae4","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":899387770,"type":1,"supId":5435687,"prevId":0,"content":"nice","text":"nice","html":"nice"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":899385500,"gmtCreate":1628160614900,"gmtModify":1633753064161,"author":{"id":"3585722115143639","authorId":"3585722115143639","name":"Lemb77","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f5d8963029154b3c0fbba5bcc6c8c2a","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3585722115143639","idStr":"3585722115143639"},"htmlText":"Like n comment pls. Thks","listText":"Like n comment pls. Thks","text":"Like n comment pls. Thks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/899385500","repostId":1121866583,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121866583","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628158108,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1121866583?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-05 18:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What's Next For The S&P 500: 10% Pullback or Rolling Correction?<blockquote>标普500的下一步是什么：10%回调还是滚动修正？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121866583","media":"zacks","summary":"The market has become increasingly rational as this 16-month bull market matures, and index-based up","content":"The market has become increasingly rational as this 16-month bull market matures, and index-based upside potential dwindles every additional percentage they rally. This is a stock picker's market. Quality stocks in well-positioned sectors will have much higher upside potential than most index-tracking ETFs for the remainder of 2021.<blockquote>随着这16个月的牛市的成熟，市场变得越来越理性，基于指数的上涨潜力每增加一个百分比，就会减少。这是一个选股者的市场。在 2021 年剩余时间里，定位良好的行业中的优质股票将比大多数指数跟踪 ETF 具有更高的上涨潜力。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 hasn't seen a pullback of more than 5% so far this year and hasn't seen an actual correction (a pullback of 10% or more) since last September, which was quickly bought back up once that down 10% mark was reached. Despite this blue-chip benchmark not exhibiting any material sell-off, over 90% of its 505 components have experienced a 10% or larger correction in 2021 thus far.<blockquote>今年到目前为止，标普500的回调幅度还没有超过 5%，自去年 9 月以来也没有出现过实际的调整（回调 10% 或更多），一旦达到 10% 的下跌关口，该指数就很快被买回。尽管这个蓝筹股基准没有表现出任何材料抛售，但迄今为止，其 505 个组件中有超过 90% 在 2021 年经历了 10% 或更大的调整。</blockquote> Rotations In &amp; Out of Growth &amp; Value<blockquote>增长与价值的进出轮换</blockquote> Investors have kept the stock market's bull drive alive by rotating in and out of growth and value sectors as portfolio's position for the reopening at the beginning of the year, then turned back to growth stocks when the yield surge began to fade mid-May. This performance deviation is clearly illustrated below with Vanguard's growth-oriented ETF (VUG Quick QuoteVUG-Free Report) in the candlesticks and its value-focused ETF (VTV Quick QuoteVTV-Free Report) represented by the orange line.<blockquote>投资者通过在年初重新开盘时轮换进出成长型和价值型板块来保持股市的牛市势头，然后在5月中旬收益率飙升开始消退时又转向成长型股票。下面烛台中的 Vanguard 以增长为导向的 ETF (VUG Quick QuoteVUG-Free Report) 和以价值为导向的 ETF (VTV Quick QuoteVTV-Free Report) 清楚地说明了这种业绩偏差。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80d0680692ab8ada950167692164017e\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"408\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Image Source: TradingView<blockquote>图片来源：TradingView</blockquote> The year-to-date performance divergence between these two stock groupings illustrates that investors &amp; traders are not buying indiscriminately. Meaning that judgment is going into every trade decision (aka stock picking), causing the market to deflate overstretched areas and reallocate into relatively cheaper spaces.<blockquote>这两个股票组合今年迄今为止的表现差异表明，投资者和交易员并没有不分青红皂白地购买。这意味着这种判断会渗透到每一个交易决策（又名选股）中，导致市场收缩过度紧张的领域并重新分配到相对便宜的领域。</blockquote> Accelerating Annualized Returns<blockquote>加速年化回报</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 has remained above an extraordinary 75% annualized return trendline for over 16 months now. Unfortunately, this rate of return isn't even close to sustainable.<blockquote>16 个月来，标普500一直保持在 75% 的年化回报率趋势线之上。不幸的是，这种回报率甚至远未达到可持续水平。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 has averaged 12% upside a year over the past 3 decades. However, the average annual growth rate has aged like fine wine. This blue-chip benchmark has demonstrated an average annualized return of nearly 15% over the past decade, and if narrowed down to just the last 5 years, those annual gains go up to over 16%.<blockquote>过去 30 年来，标普500平均每年上涨 12%。然而，年均增长率却像美酒一样陈年。这一蓝筹股基准在过去十年中的平均年化回报率接近 15%，如果缩小到过去 5 年，这些年收益将超过 16%。</blockquote> The stock market is experiencing swelling average annual gains because of the rapid acceleration of technology that continuously accelerates companies' and our economy's growth outlook. I expect to see continued annualized return acceleration over the next decade as tech makes up a growing portion of the public equity market. Nevertheless, a rolling 75% annualized return out of the S&amp;P 500 isn't viable.<blockquote>由于技术的快速发展不断加速公司和我们经济的增长前景，股市正在经历不断膨胀的年均涨幅。随着科技在公共股票市场中所占份额越来越大，我预计未来十年年化回报率将继续加速。然而，标普500滚动 75% 的年化回报率是不可行的。</blockquote> There may be too much sideline capital (a record 5.5 trillion in money market funds, according to Goldman Sachs (GS Quick QuoteGS-Free Report) for the market to entirely correct. Still, we are due for consolidation over the next few months, aka a rolling correction.<blockquote>可能有太多的边际资本（根据高盛（GS Quick QuoteGS-Free Report）的数据，货币市场基金达到创纪录的5.5万亿美元，市场无法完全纠正。尽管如此，我们仍将在未来几个月进行整合，也就是滚动调整。</blockquote> We are now entering a pivotal point in this maturing market cycle. Q2 earnings season has been tremendous thus far, with earnings soaring 105% on sales up over 22% from a year ago. 91% of the reported companies beating EPS estimates, and over 86% beat top-line projections. The richly valued tech sector has demonstrated awe-inspiring Q2 results, with 100% of them exceeding EPS estimates and over 96% beating on revenues, which seemingly justified frothy valuations in the space.<blockquote>我们现在正进入这个成熟市场周期的关键点。到目前为止，第二季度财报季表现非常出色，盈利飙升 105%，销售额同比增长 22% 以上。91% 的报告公司超出了每股收益预期，超过 86% 的公司超出了营收预测。估值极高的科技行业第二季度业绩令人敬畏，其中 100% 的业绩超出了每股收益预期，超过 96% 的业绩超出了收入预期，这似乎证明了该领域的泡沫估值是合理的。</blockquote> However, analysts are projecting peak earnings growth to be in the rear-view mirror as Q2 earnings season wraps up, and at these rich multiples, valuation compression may be in order. Even with these exceptional quarterly reports and growing full-year estimates, we have seen an undue level of profit-pulling and defensive market positioning. The resurging COVID fears and anticipated shift in monetary policy also weigh on bullish sentiment.<blockquote>然而，分析师预计，随着第二季度财报季的结束，盈利增长峰值将成为过去，在这些丰富的市盈率下，估值可能会压缩。即使有这些出色的季度报告和不断增长的全年预期，我们也看到了过度的利润拉动和防御性市场定位。新冠疫情担忧的死灰复燃和货币政策的预期转变也打压了看涨情绪。</blockquote> Nevertheless, the enormous amount of cash on the bench is still being put to work, with every marginal dip being bought right back up. The national consumer savings rate in the US sits sizably above the last decade's average. Americans are not only participating in the public equity market at a record rate, but they also have plenty of liquidity to keep buying their favorite stocks.<blockquote>尽管如此，板凳上的巨额现金仍在发挥作用，每一次边际下跌都会被买回。美国全国消费者储蓄率远高于过去十年的平均水平。美国人不仅以创纪录的速度参与公共股权市场，而且他们还有充足的流动性来继续购买他们喜欢的股票。</blockquote> Stocks remain the most attractive asset class, with negative real interest rates in the bond market, sky-high commodity prices, highly volatile crypto prices, and pricing pressure that most publicly traded companies have been able to easily transfer to their end-markets (illustrated by Q2 margin results).<blockquote>股票仍然是最具吸引力的资产类别，债券市场的负实际利率、天价商品价格、高度波动的加密货币价格以及大多数上市公司能够轻松转移到终端市场的定价压力（第二季度利润率结果说明）。</blockquote> I expect to see a rolling correction, reflected by a consolidating stock market, instead of this 10%+ correction that analysts have been postulating. Range-bound indexes(less than 10% swings) for some time (month or two) would have the same valuation compressing effect as an all-out correction because earnings would be growing while prices remain muted, leading to shrinking P/E multiples (aka rolling correction).<blockquote>我预计会看到股市盘整所反映的滚动调整，而不是分析师一直假设的 10% 以上的调整。在一段时间（一两个月）内（波动小于 10%）的区间指数（波动小于 10%）会产生与全面修正相同的估值压缩效果，因为收益会增长，而价格保持低迷，导致市盈率缩小（又名滚动修正）。</blockquote> I foresee a sideways broader market trade until the Delta-variant is no longer a global concern. I remain bullish on stocks for the remaining 5 months of 2021 and am confident that the S&amp;P 500 will close out the year higher than it is trading at today.<blockquote>我预计市场交易将横盘整理，直到Delta变体不再是全球关注的问题。在2021年剩余的5个月里，我仍然看好股市，并相信标普500将以高于今天的交易价格结束这一年。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What's Next For The S&P 500: 10% Pullback or Rolling Correction?<blockquote>标普500的下一步是什么：10%回调还是滚动修正？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat's Next For The S&P 500: 10% Pullback or Rolling Correction?<blockquote>标普500的下一步是什么：10%回调还是滚动修正？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzacks2021-08-05 18:08\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe market has become increasingly rational as this 16-month bull market matures, and index-based upside potential dwindles every additional percentage they rally. This is a stock picker's market. Quality stocks in well-positioned sectors will have much higher upside potential than most index-tracking ETFs for the remainder of 2021.<blockquote>随着这16个月的牛市的成熟，市场变得越来越理性，基于指数的上涨潜力每增加一个百分比，就会减少。这是一个选股者的市场。在 2021 年剩余时间里，定位良好的行业中的优质股票将比大多数指数跟踪 ETF 具有更高的上涨潜力。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 hasn't seen a pullback of more than 5% so far this year and hasn't seen an actual correction (a pullback of 10% or more) since last September, which was quickly bought back up once that down 10% mark was reached. Despite this blue-chip benchmark not exhibiting any material sell-off, over 90% of its 505 components have experienced a 10% or larger correction in 2021 thus far.<blockquote>今年到目前为止，标普500的回调幅度还没有超过 5%，自去年 9 月以来也没有出现过实际的调整（回调 10% 或更多），一旦达到 10% 的下跌关口，该指数就很快被买回。尽管这个蓝筹股基准没有表现出任何材料抛售，但迄今为止，其 505 个组件中有超过 90% 在 2021 年经历了 10% 或更大的调整。</blockquote> Rotations In &amp; Out of Growth &amp; Value<blockquote>增长与价值的进出轮换</blockquote> Investors have kept the stock market's bull drive alive by rotating in and out of growth and value sectors as portfolio's position for the reopening at the beginning of the year, then turned back to growth stocks when the yield surge began to fade mid-May. This performance deviation is clearly illustrated below with Vanguard's growth-oriented ETF (VUG Quick QuoteVUG-Free Report) in the candlesticks and its value-focused ETF (VTV Quick QuoteVTV-Free Report) represented by the orange line.<blockquote>投资者通过在年初重新开盘时轮换进出成长型和价值型板块来保持股市的牛市势头，然后在5月中旬收益率飙升开始消退时又转向成长型股票。下面烛台中的 Vanguard 以增长为导向的 ETF (VUG Quick QuoteVUG-Free Report) 和以价值为导向的 ETF (VTV Quick QuoteVTV-Free Report) 清楚地说明了这种业绩偏差。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80d0680692ab8ada950167692164017e\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"408\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Image Source: TradingView<blockquote>图片来源：TradingView</blockquote> The year-to-date performance divergence between these two stock groupings illustrates that investors &amp; traders are not buying indiscriminately. Meaning that judgment is going into every trade decision (aka stock picking), causing the market to deflate overstretched areas and reallocate into relatively cheaper spaces.<blockquote>这两个股票组合今年迄今为止的表现差异表明，投资者和交易员并没有不分青红皂白地购买。这意味着这种判断会渗透到每一个交易决策（又名选股）中，导致市场收缩过度紧张的领域并重新分配到相对便宜的领域。</blockquote> Accelerating Annualized Returns<blockquote>加速年化回报</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 has remained above an extraordinary 75% annualized return trendline for over 16 months now. Unfortunately, this rate of return isn't even close to sustainable.<blockquote>16 个月来，标普500一直保持在 75% 的年化回报率趋势线之上。不幸的是，这种回报率甚至远未达到可持续水平。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 has averaged 12% upside a year over the past 3 decades. However, the average annual growth rate has aged like fine wine. This blue-chip benchmark has demonstrated an average annualized return of nearly 15% over the past decade, and if narrowed down to just the last 5 years, those annual gains go up to over 16%.<blockquote>过去 30 年来，标普500平均每年上涨 12%。然而，年均增长率却像美酒一样陈年。这一蓝筹股基准在过去十年中的平均年化回报率接近 15%，如果缩小到过去 5 年，这些年收益将超过 16%。</blockquote> The stock market is experiencing swelling average annual gains because of the rapid acceleration of technology that continuously accelerates companies' and our economy's growth outlook. I expect to see continued annualized return acceleration over the next decade as tech makes up a growing portion of the public equity market. Nevertheless, a rolling 75% annualized return out of the S&amp;P 500 isn't viable.<blockquote>由于技术的快速发展不断加速公司和我们经济的增长前景，股市正在经历不断膨胀的年均涨幅。随着科技在公共股票市场中所占份额越来越大，我预计未来十年年化回报率将继续加速。然而，标普500滚动 75% 的年化回报率是不可行的。</blockquote> There may be too much sideline capital (a record 5.5 trillion in money market funds, according to Goldman Sachs (GS Quick QuoteGS-Free Report) for the market to entirely correct. Still, we are due for consolidation over the next few months, aka a rolling correction.<blockquote>可能有太多的边际资本（根据高盛（GS Quick QuoteGS-Free Report）的数据，货币市场基金达到创纪录的5.5万亿美元，市场无法完全纠正。尽管如此，我们仍将在未来几个月进行整合，也就是滚动调整。</blockquote> We are now entering a pivotal point in this maturing market cycle. Q2 earnings season has been tremendous thus far, with earnings soaring 105% on sales up over 22% from a year ago. 91% of the reported companies beating EPS estimates, and over 86% beat top-line projections. The richly valued tech sector has demonstrated awe-inspiring Q2 results, with 100% of them exceeding EPS estimates and over 96% beating on revenues, which seemingly justified frothy valuations in the space.<blockquote>我们现在正进入这个成熟市场周期的关键点。到目前为止，第二季度财报季表现非常出色，盈利飙升 105%，销售额同比增长 22% 以上。91% 的报告公司超出了每股收益预期，超过 86% 的公司超出了营收预测。估值极高的科技行业第二季度业绩令人敬畏，其中 100% 的业绩超出了每股收益预期，超过 96% 的业绩超出了收入预期，这似乎证明了该领域的泡沫估值是合理的。</blockquote> However, analysts are projecting peak earnings growth to be in the rear-view mirror as Q2 earnings season wraps up, and at these rich multiples, valuation compression may be in order. Even with these exceptional quarterly reports and growing full-year estimates, we have seen an undue level of profit-pulling and defensive market positioning. The resurging COVID fears and anticipated shift in monetary policy also weigh on bullish sentiment.<blockquote>然而，分析师预计，随着第二季度财报季的结束，盈利增长峰值将成为过去，在这些丰富的市盈率下，估值可能会压缩。即使有这些出色的季度报告和不断增长的全年预期，我们也看到了过度的利润拉动和防御性市场定位。新冠疫情担忧的死灰复燃和货币政策的预期转变也打压了看涨情绪。</blockquote> Nevertheless, the enormous amount of cash on the bench is still being put to work, with every marginal dip being bought right back up. The national consumer savings rate in the US sits sizably above the last decade's average. Americans are not only participating in the public equity market at a record rate, but they also have plenty of liquidity to keep buying their favorite stocks.<blockquote>尽管如此，板凳上的巨额现金仍在发挥作用，每一次边际下跌都会被买回。美国全国消费者储蓄率远高于过去十年的平均水平。美国人不仅以创纪录的速度参与公共股权市场，而且他们还有充足的流动性来继续购买他们喜欢的股票。</blockquote> Stocks remain the most attractive asset class, with negative real interest rates in the bond market, sky-high commodity prices, highly volatile crypto prices, and pricing pressure that most publicly traded companies have been able to easily transfer to their end-markets (illustrated by Q2 margin results).<blockquote>股票仍然是最具吸引力的资产类别，债券市场的负实际利率、天价商品价格、高度波动的加密货币价格以及大多数上市公司能够轻松转移到终端市场的定价压力（第二季度利润率结果说明）。</blockquote> I expect to see a rolling correction, reflected by a consolidating stock market, instead of this 10%+ correction that analysts have been postulating. Range-bound indexes(less than 10% swings) for some time (month or two) would have the same valuation compressing effect as an all-out correction because earnings would be growing while prices remain muted, leading to shrinking P/E multiples (aka rolling correction).<blockquote>我预计会看到股市盘整所反映的滚动调整，而不是分析师一直假设的 10% 以上的调整。在一段时间（一两个月）内（波动小于 10%）的区间指数（波动小于 10%）会产生与全面修正相同的估值压缩效果，因为收益会增长，而价格保持低迷，导致市盈率缩小（又名滚动修正）。</blockquote> I foresee a sideways broader market trade until the Delta-variant is no longer a global concern. I remain bullish on stocks for the remaining 5 months of 2021 and am confident that the S&amp;P 500 will close out the year higher than it is trading at today.<blockquote>我预计市场交易将横盘整理，直到Delta变体不再是全球关注的问题。在2021年剩余的5个月里，我仍然看好股市，并相信标普500将以高于今天的交易价格结束这一年。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zacks.com/commentary/1773639/whats-next-for-the-sp-500-10-pullback-or-rolling-correction?&art_rec=home-home-investment_ideas_stocks-ID09-txt-1278004\">zacks</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zacks.com/commentary/1773639/whats-next-for-the-sp-500-10-pullback-or-rolling-correction?&art_rec=home-home-investment_ideas_stocks-ID09-txt-1278004","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121866583","content_text":"The market has become increasingly rational as this 16-month bull market matures, and index-based upside potential dwindles every additional percentage they rally. This is a stock picker's market. Quality stocks in well-positioned sectors will have much higher upside potential than most index-tracking ETFs for the remainder of 2021.\nThe S&P 500 hasn't seen a pullback of more than 5% so far this year and hasn't seen an actual correction (a pullback of 10% or more) since last September, which was quickly bought back up once that down 10% mark was reached. Despite this blue-chip benchmark not exhibiting any material sell-off, over 90% of its 505 components have experienced a 10% or larger correction in 2021 thus far.\nRotations In & Out of Growth & Value\nInvestors have kept the stock market's bull drive alive by rotating in and out of growth and value sectors as portfolio's position for the reopening at the beginning of the year, then turned back to growth stocks when the yield surge began to fade mid-May. This performance deviation is clearly illustrated below with Vanguard's growth-oriented ETF (VUG Quick QuoteVUG-Free Report) in the candlesticks and its value-focused ETF (VTV Quick QuoteVTV-Free Report) represented by the orange line.\n\nImage Source: TradingView\nThe year-to-date performance divergence between these two stock groupings illustrates that investors & traders are not buying indiscriminately. Meaning that judgment is going into every trade decision (aka stock picking), causing the market to deflate overstretched areas and reallocate into relatively cheaper spaces.\nAccelerating Annualized Returns\nThe S&P 500 has remained above an extraordinary 75% annualized return trendline for over 16 months now. Unfortunately, this rate of return isn't even close to sustainable.\nThe S&P 500 has averaged 12% upside a year over the past 3 decades. However, the average annual growth rate has aged like fine wine. This blue-chip benchmark has demonstrated an average annualized return of nearly 15% over the past decade, and if narrowed down to just the last 5 years, those annual gains go up to over 16%.\nThe stock market is experiencing swelling average annual gains because of the rapid acceleration of technology that continuously accelerates companies' and our economy's growth outlook. I expect to see continued annualized return acceleration over the next decade as tech makes up a growing portion of the public equity market. Nevertheless, a rolling 75% annualized return out of the S&P 500 isn't viable.\nThere may be too much sideline capital (a record 5.5 trillion in money market funds, according to Goldman Sachs (GS Quick QuoteGS-Free Report) for the market to entirely correct. Still, we are due for consolidation over the next few months, aka a rolling correction.\nWe are now entering a pivotal point in this maturing market cycle. Q2 earnings season has been tremendous thus far, with earnings soaring 105% on sales up over 22% from a year ago. 91% of the reported companies beating EPS estimates, and over 86% beat top-line projections. The richly valued tech sector has demonstrated awe-inspiring Q2 results, with 100% of them exceeding EPS estimates and over 96% beating on revenues, which seemingly justified frothy valuations in the space.\nHowever, analysts are projecting peak earnings growth to be in the rear-view mirror as Q2 earnings season wraps up, and at these rich multiples, valuation compression may be in order. Even with these exceptional quarterly reports and growing full-year estimates, we have seen an undue level of profit-pulling and defensive market positioning. The resurging COVID fears and anticipated shift in monetary policy also weigh on bullish sentiment.\nNevertheless, the enormous amount of cash on the bench is still being put to work, with every marginal dip being bought right back up. The national consumer savings rate in the US sits sizably above the last decade's average. Americans are not only participating in the public equity market at a record rate, but they also have plenty of liquidity to keep buying their favorite stocks.\nStocks remain the most attractive asset class, with negative real interest rates in the bond market, sky-high commodity prices, highly volatile crypto prices, and pricing pressure that most publicly traded companies have been able to easily transfer to their end-markets (illustrated by Q2 margin results).\nI expect to see a rolling correction, reflected by a consolidating stock market, instead of this 10%+ correction that analysts have been postulating. Range-bound indexes(less than 10% swings) for some time (month or two) would have the same valuation compressing effect as an all-out correction because earnings would be growing while prices remain muted, leading to shrinking P/E multiples (aka rolling correction).\nI foresee a sideways broader market trade until the Delta-variant is no longer a global concern. I remain bullish on stocks for the remaining 5 months of 2021 and am confident that the S&P 500 will close out the year higher than it is trading at today.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5435657,"gmtCreate":1628160644941,"gmtModify":1635159406532,"authorId":3563790138758003,"author":{"id":3563790138758003,"idStr":"3563790138758003","authorId":3563790138758003,"name":"ZCZC","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d359c8a02a4377c583da678d7e9144c4","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":899385500,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"[强]","text":"[强]","html":"[强]"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":899385215,"gmtCreate":1628160604737,"gmtModify":1633753064283,"author":{"id":"3581643164424811","authorId":"3581643164424811","name":"我不是股神我是赌神","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e971ed6e3f7b6495a07f7b9b5007ee5","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3581643164424811","idStr":"3581643164424811"},"htmlText":"Oo","listText":"Oo","text":"Oo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/899385215","repostId":1121866583,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121866583","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628158108,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1121866583?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-05 18:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What's Next For The S&P 500: 10% Pullback or Rolling Correction?<blockquote>标普500的下一步是什么：10%回调还是滚动修正？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121866583","media":"zacks","summary":"The market has become increasingly rational as this 16-month bull market matures, and index-based up","content":"The market has become increasingly rational as this 16-month bull market matures, and index-based upside potential dwindles every additional percentage they rally. This is a stock picker's market. Quality stocks in well-positioned sectors will have much higher upside potential than most index-tracking ETFs for the remainder of 2021.<blockquote>随着这16个月的牛市的成熟，市场变得越来越理性，基于指数的上涨潜力每增加一个百分比，就会减少。这是一个选股者的市场。在 2021 年剩余时间里，定位良好的行业中的优质股票将比大多数指数跟踪 ETF 具有更高的上涨潜力。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 hasn't seen a pullback of more than 5% so far this year and hasn't seen an actual correction (a pullback of 10% or more) since last September, which was quickly bought back up once that down 10% mark was reached. Despite this blue-chip benchmark not exhibiting any material sell-off, over 90% of its 505 components have experienced a 10% or larger correction in 2021 thus far.<blockquote>今年到目前为止，标普500的回调幅度还没有超过 5%，自去年 9 月以来也没有出现过实际的调整（回调 10% 或更多），一旦达到 10% 的下跌关口，该指数就很快被买回。尽管这个蓝筹股基准没有表现出任何材料抛售，但迄今为止，其 505 个组件中有超过 90% 在 2021 年经历了 10% 或更大的调整。</blockquote> Rotations In &amp; Out of Growth &amp; Value<blockquote>增长与价值的进出轮换</blockquote> Investors have kept the stock market's bull drive alive by rotating in and out of growth and value sectors as portfolio's position for the reopening at the beginning of the year, then turned back to growth stocks when the yield surge began to fade mid-May. This performance deviation is clearly illustrated below with Vanguard's growth-oriented ETF (VUG Quick QuoteVUG-Free Report) in the candlesticks and its value-focused ETF (VTV Quick QuoteVTV-Free Report) represented by the orange line.<blockquote>投资者通过在年初重新开盘时轮换进出成长型和价值型板块来保持股市的牛市势头，然后在5月中旬收益率飙升开始消退时又转向成长型股票。下面烛台中的 Vanguard 以增长为导向的 ETF (VUG Quick QuoteVUG-Free Report) 和以价值为导向的 ETF (VTV Quick QuoteVTV-Free Report) 清楚地说明了这种业绩偏差。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80d0680692ab8ada950167692164017e\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"408\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Image Source: TradingView<blockquote>图片来源：TradingView</blockquote> The year-to-date performance divergence between these two stock groupings illustrates that investors &amp; traders are not buying indiscriminately. Meaning that judgment is going into every trade decision (aka stock picking), causing the market to deflate overstretched areas and reallocate into relatively cheaper spaces.<blockquote>这两个股票组合今年迄今为止的表现差异表明，投资者和交易员并没有不分青红皂白地购买。这意味着这种判断会渗透到每一个交易决策（又名选股）中，导致市场收缩过度紧张的领域并重新分配到相对便宜的领域。</blockquote> Accelerating Annualized Returns<blockquote>加速年化回报</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 has remained above an extraordinary 75% annualized return trendline for over 16 months now. Unfortunately, this rate of return isn't even close to sustainable.<blockquote>16 个月来，标普500一直保持在 75% 的年化回报率趋势线之上。不幸的是，这种回报率甚至远未达到可持续水平。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 has averaged 12% upside a year over the past 3 decades. However, the average annual growth rate has aged like fine wine. This blue-chip benchmark has demonstrated an average annualized return of nearly 15% over the past decade, and if narrowed down to just the last 5 years, those annual gains go up to over 16%.<blockquote>过去 30 年来，标普500平均每年上涨 12%。然而，年均增长率却像美酒一样陈年。这一蓝筹股基准在过去十年中的平均年化回报率接近 15%，如果缩小到过去 5 年，这些年收益将超过 16%。</blockquote> The stock market is experiencing swelling average annual gains because of the rapid acceleration of technology that continuously accelerates companies' and our economy's growth outlook. I expect to see continued annualized return acceleration over the next decade as tech makes up a growing portion of the public equity market. Nevertheless, a rolling 75% annualized return out of the S&amp;P 500 isn't viable.<blockquote>由于技术的快速发展不断加速公司和我们经济的增长前景，股市正在经历不断膨胀的年均涨幅。随着科技在公共股票市场中所占份额越来越大，我预计未来十年年化回报率将继续加速。然而，标普500滚动 75% 的年化回报率是不可行的。</blockquote> There may be too much sideline capital (a record 5.5 trillion in money market funds, according to Goldman Sachs (GS Quick QuoteGS-Free Report) for the market to entirely correct. Still, we are due for consolidation over the next few months, aka a rolling correction.<blockquote>可能有太多的边际资本（根据高盛（GS Quick QuoteGS-Free Report）的数据，货币市场基金达到创纪录的5.5万亿美元，市场无法完全纠正。尽管如此，我们仍将在未来几个月进行整合，也就是滚动调整。</blockquote> We are now entering a pivotal point in this maturing market cycle. Q2 earnings season has been tremendous thus far, with earnings soaring 105% on sales up over 22% from a year ago. 91% of the reported companies beating EPS estimates, and over 86% beat top-line projections. The richly valued tech sector has demonstrated awe-inspiring Q2 results, with 100% of them exceeding EPS estimates and over 96% beating on revenues, which seemingly justified frothy valuations in the space.<blockquote>我们现在正进入这个成熟市场周期的关键点。到目前为止，第二季度财报季表现非常出色，盈利飙升 105%，销售额同比增长 22% 以上。91% 的报告公司超出了每股收益预期，超过 86% 的公司超出了营收预测。估值极高的科技行业第二季度业绩令人敬畏，其中 100% 的业绩超出了每股收益预期，超过 96% 的业绩超出了收入预期，这似乎证明了该领域的泡沫估值是合理的。</blockquote> However, analysts are projecting peak earnings growth to be in the rear-view mirror as Q2 earnings season wraps up, and at these rich multiples, valuation compression may be in order. Even with these exceptional quarterly reports and growing full-year estimates, we have seen an undue level of profit-pulling and defensive market positioning. The resurging COVID fears and anticipated shift in monetary policy also weigh on bullish sentiment.<blockquote>然而，分析师预计，随着第二季度财报季的结束，盈利增长峰值将成为过去，在这些丰富的市盈率下，估值可能会压缩。即使有这些出色的季度报告和不断增长的全年预期，我们也看到了过度的利润拉动和防御性市场定位。新冠疫情担忧的死灰复燃和货币政策的预期转变也打压了看涨情绪。</blockquote> Nevertheless, the enormous amount of cash on the bench is still being put to work, with every marginal dip being bought right back up. The national consumer savings rate in the US sits sizably above the last decade's average. Americans are not only participating in the public equity market at a record rate, but they also have plenty of liquidity to keep buying their favorite stocks.<blockquote>尽管如此，板凳上的巨额现金仍在发挥作用，每一次边际下跌都会被买回。美国全国消费者储蓄率远高于过去十年的平均水平。美国人不仅以创纪录的速度参与公共股权市场，而且他们还有充足的流动性来继续购买他们喜欢的股票。</blockquote> Stocks remain the most attractive asset class, with negative real interest rates in the bond market, sky-high commodity prices, highly volatile crypto prices, and pricing pressure that most publicly traded companies have been able to easily transfer to their end-markets (illustrated by Q2 margin results).<blockquote>股票仍然是最具吸引力的资产类别，债券市场的负实际利率、天价商品价格、高度波动的加密货币价格以及大多数上市公司能够轻松转移到终端市场的定价压力（第二季度利润率结果说明）。</blockquote> I expect to see a rolling correction, reflected by a consolidating stock market, instead of this 10%+ correction that analysts have been postulating. Range-bound indexes(less than 10% swings) for some time (month or two) would have the same valuation compressing effect as an all-out correction because earnings would be growing while prices remain muted, leading to shrinking P/E multiples (aka rolling correction).<blockquote>我预计会看到股市盘整所反映的滚动调整，而不是分析师一直假设的 10% 以上的调整。在一段时间（一两个月）内（波动小于 10%）的区间指数（波动小于 10%）会产生与全面修正相同的估值压缩效果，因为收益会增长，而价格保持低迷，导致市盈率缩小（又名滚动修正）。</blockquote> I foresee a sideways broader market trade until the Delta-variant is no longer a global concern. I remain bullish on stocks for the remaining 5 months of 2021 and am confident that the S&amp;P 500 will close out the year higher than it is trading at today.<blockquote>我预计市场交易将横盘整理，直到Delta变体不再是全球关注的问题。在2021年剩余的5个月里，我仍然看好股市，并相信标普500将以高于今天的交易价格结束这一年。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What's Next For The S&P 500: 10% Pullback or Rolling Correction?<blockquote>标普500的下一步是什么：10%回调还是滚动修正？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat's Next For The S&P 500: 10% Pullback or Rolling Correction?<blockquote>标普500的下一步是什么：10%回调还是滚动修正？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzacks2021-08-05 18:08\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe market has become increasingly rational as this 16-month bull market matures, and index-based upside potential dwindles every additional percentage they rally. This is a stock picker's market. Quality stocks in well-positioned sectors will have much higher upside potential than most index-tracking ETFs for the remainder of 2021.<blockquote>随着这16个月的牛市的成熟，市场变得越来越理性，基于指数的上涨潜力每增加一个百分比，就会减少。这是一个选股者的市场。在 2021 年剩余时间里，定位良好的行业中的优质股票将比大多数指数跟踪 ETF 具有更高的上涨潜力。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 hasn't seen a pullback of more than 5% so far this year and hasn't seen an actual correction (a pullback of 10% or more) since last September, which was quickly bought back up once that down 10% mark was reached. Despite this blue-chip benchmark not exhibiting any material sell-off, over 90% of its 505 components have experienced a 10% or larger correction in 2021 thus far.<blockquote>今年到目前为止，标普500的回调幅度还没有超过 5%，自去年 9 月以来也没有出现过实际的调整（回调 10% 或更多），一旦达到 10% 的下跌关口，该指数就很快被买回。尽管这个蓝筹股基准没有表现出任何材料抛售，但迄今为止，其 505 个组件中有超过 90% 在 2021 年经历了 10% 或更大的调整。</blockquote> Rotations In &amp; Out of Growth &amp; Value<blockquote>增长与价值的进出轮换</blockquote> Investors have kept the stock market's bull drive alive by rotating in and out of growth and value sectors as portfolio's position for the reopening at the beginning of the year, then turned back to growth stocks when the yield surge began to fade mid-May. This performance deviation is clearly illustrated below with Vanguard's growth-oriented ETF (VUG Quick QuoteVUG-Free Report) in the candlesticks and its value-focused ETF (VTV Quick QuoteVTV-Free Report) represented by the orange line.<blockquote>投资者通过在年初重新开盘时轮换进出成长型和价值型板块来保持股市的牛市势头，然后在5月中旬收益率飙升开始消退时又转向成长型股票。下面烛台中的 Vanguard 以增长为导向的 ETF (VUG Quick QuoteVUG-Free Report) 和以价值为导向的 ETF (VTV Quick QuoteVTV-Free Report) 清楚地说明了这种业绩偏差。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80d0680692ab8ada950167692164017e\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"408\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Image Source: TradingView<blockquote>图片来源：TradingView</blockquote> The year-to-date performance divergence between these two stock groupings illustrates that investors &amp; traders are not buying indiscriminately. Meaning that judgment is going into every trade decision (aka stock picking), causing the market to deflate overstretched areas and reallocate into relatively cheaper spaces.<blockquote>这两个股票组合今年迄今为止的表现差异表明，投资者和交易员并没有不分青红皂白地购买。这意味着这种判断会渗透到每一个交易决策（又名选股）中，导致市场收缩过度紧张的领域并重新分配到相对便宜的领域。</blockquote> Accelerating Annualized Returns<blockquote>加速年化回报</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 has remained above an extraordinary 75% annualized return trendline for over 16 months now. Unfortunately, this rate of return isn't even close to sustainable.<blockquote>16 个月来，标普500一直保持在 75% 的年化回报率趋势线之上。不幸的是，这种回报率甚至远未达到可持续水平。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 has averaged 12% upside a year over the past 3 decades. However, the average annual growth rate has aged like fine wine. This blue-chip benchmark has demonstrated an average annualized return of nearly 15% over the past decade, and if narrowed down to just the last 5 years, those annual gains go up to over 16%.<blockquote>过去 30 年来，标普500平均每年上涨 12%。然而，年均增长率却像美酒一样陈年。这一蓝筹股基准在过去十年中的平均年化回报率接近 15%，如果缩小到过去 5 年，这些年收益将超过 16%。</blockquote> The stock market is experiencing swelling average annual gains because of the rapid acceleration of technology that continuously accelerates companies' and our economy's growth outlook. I expect to see continued annualized return acceleration over the next decade as tech makes up a growing portion of the public equity market. Nevertheless, a rolling 75% annualized return out of the S&amp;P 500 isn't viable.<blockquote>由于技术的快速发展不断加速公司和我们经济的增长前景，股市正在经历不断膨胀的年均涨幅。随着科技在公共股票市场中所占份额越来越大，我预计未来十年年化回报率将继续加速。然而，标普500滚动 75% 的年化回报率是不可行的。</blockquote> There may be too much sideline capital (a record 5.5 trillion in money market funds, according to Goldman Sachs (GS Quick QuoteGS-Free Report) for the market to entirely correct. Still, we are due for consolidation over the next few months, aka a rolling correction.<blockquote>可能有太多的边际资本（根据高盛（GS Quick QuoteGS-Free Report）的数据，货币市场基金达到创纪录的5.5万亿美元，市场无法完全纠正。尽管如此，我们仍将在未来几个月进行整合，也就是滚动调整。</blockquote> We are now entering a pivotal point in this maturing market cycle. Q2 earnings season has been tremendous thus far, with earnings soaring 105% on sales up over 22% from a year ago. 91% of the reported companies beating EPS estimates, and over 86% beat top-line projections. The richly valued tech sector has demonstrated awe-inspiring Q2 results, with 100% of them exceeding EPS estimates and over 96% beating on revenues, which seemingly justified frothy valuations in the space.<blockquote>我们现在正进入这个成熟市场周期的关键点。到目前为止，第二季度财报季表现非常出色，盈利飙升 105%，销售额同比增长 22% 以上。91% 的报告公司超出了每股收益预期，超过 86% 的公司超出了营收预测。估值极高的科技行业第二季度业绩令人敬畏，其中 100% 的业绩超出了每股收益预期，超过 96% 的业绩超出了收入预期，这似乎证明了该领域的泡沫估值是合理的。</blockquote> However, analysts are projecting peak earnings growth to be in the rear-view mirror as Q2 earnings season wraps up, and at these rich multiples, valuation compression may be in order. Even with these exceptional quarterly reports and growing full-year estimates, we have seen an undue level of profit-pulling and defensive market positioning. The resurging COVID fears and anticipated shift in monetary policy also weigh on bullish sentiment.<blockquote>然而，分析师预计，随着第二季度财报季的结束，盈利增长峰值将成为过去，在这些丰富的市盈率下，估值可能会压缩。即使有这些出色的季度报告和不断增长的全年预期，我们也看到了过度的利润拉动和防御性市场定位。新冠疫情担忧的死灰复燃和货币政策的预期转变也打压了看涨情绪。</blockquote> Nevertheless, the enormous amount of cash on the bench is still being put to work, with every marginal dip being bought right back up. The national consumer savings rate in the US sits sizably above the last decade's average. Americans are not only participating in the public equity market at a record rate, but they also have plenty of liquidity to keep buying their favorite stocks.<blockquote>尽管如此，板凳上的巨额现金仍在发挥作用，每一次边际下跌都会被买回。美国全国消费者储蓄率远高于过去十年的平均水平。美国人不仅以创纪录的速度参与公共股权市场，而且他们还有充足的流动性来继续购买他们喜欢的股票。</blockquote> Stocks remain the most attractive asset class, with negative real interest rates in the bond market, sky-high commodity prices, highly volatile crypto prices, and pricing pressure that most publicly traded companies have been able to easily transfer to their end-markets (illustrated by Q2 margin results).<blockquote>股票仍然是最具吸引力的资产类别，债券市场的负实际利率、天价商品价格、高度波动的加密货币价格以及大多数上市公司能够轻松转移到终端市场的定价压力（第二季度利润率结果说明）。</blockquote> I expect to see a rolling correction, reflected by a consolidating stock market, instead of this 10%+ correction that analysts have been postulating. Range-bound indexes(less than 10% swings) for some time (month or two) would have the same valuation compressing effect as an all-out correction because earnings would be growing while prices remain muted, leading to shrinking P/E multiples (aka rolling correction).<blockquote>我预计会看到股市盘整所反映的滚动调整，而不是分析师一直假设的 10% 以上的调整。在一段时间（一两个月）内（波动小于 10%）的区间指数（波动小于 10%）会产生与全面修正相同的估值压缩效果，因为收益会增长，而价格保持低迷，导致市盈率缩小（又名滚动修正）。</blockquote> I foresee a sideways broader market trade until the Delta-variant is no longer a global concern. I remain bullish on stocks for the remaining 5 months of 2021 and am confident that the S&amp;P 500 will close out the year higher than it is trading at today.<blockquote>我预计市场交易将横盘整理，直到Delta变体不再是全球关注的问题。在2021年剩余的5个月里，我仍然看好股市，并相信标普500将以高于今天的交易价格结束这一年。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zacks.com/commentary/1773639/whats-next-for-the-sp-500-10-pullback-or-rolling-correction?&art_rec=home-home-investment_ideas_stocks-ID09-txt-1278004\">zacks</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zacks.com/commentary/1773639/whats-next-for-the-sp-500-10-pullback-or-rolling-correction?&art_rec=home-home-investment_ideas_stocks-ID09-txt-1278004","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121866583","content_text":"The market has become increasingly rational as this 16-month bull market matures, and index-based upside potential dwindles every additional percentage they rally. This is a stock picker's market. Quality stocks in well-positioned sectors will have much higher upside potential than most index-tracking ETFs for the remainder of 2021.\nThe S&P 500 hasn't seen a pullback of more than 5% so far this year and hasn't seen an actual correction (a pullback of 10% or more) since last September, which was quickly bought back up once that down 10% mark was reached. Despite this blue-chip benchmark not exhibiting any material sell-off, over 90% of its 505 components have experienced a 10% or larger correction in 2021 thus far.\nRotations In & Out of Growth & Value\nInvestors have kept the stock market's bull drive alive by rotating in and out of growth and value sectors as portfolio's position for the reopening at the beginning of the year, then turned back to growth stocks when the yield surge began to fade mid-May. This performance deviation is clearly illustrated below with Vanguard's growth-oriented ETF (VUG Quick QuoteVUG-Free Report) in the candlesticks and its value-focused ETF (VTV Quick QuoteVTV-Free Report) represented by the orange line.\n\nImage Source: TradingView\nThe year-to-date performance divergence between these two stock groupings illustrates that investors & traders are not buying indiscriminately. Meaning that judgment is going into every trade decision (aka stock picking), causing the market to deflate overstretched areas and reallocate into relatively cheaper spaces.\nAccelerating Annualized Returns\nThe S&P 500 has remained above an extraordinary 75% annualized return trendline for over 16 months now. Unfortunately, this rate of return isn't even close to sustainable.\nThe S&P 500 has averaged 12% upside a year over the past 3 decades. However, the average annual growth rate has aged like fine wine. This blue-chip benchmark has demonstrated an average annualized return of nearly 15% over the past decade, and if narrowed down to just the last 5 years, those annual gains go up to over 16%.\nThe stock market is experiencing swelling average annual gains because of the rapid acceleration of technology that continuously accelerates companies' and our economy's growth outlook. I expect to see continued annualized return acceleration over the next decade as tech makes up a growing portion of the public equity market. Nevertheless, a rolling 75% annualized return out of the S&P 500 isn't viable.\nThere may be too much sideline capital (a record 5.5 trillion in money market funds, according to Goldman Sachs (GS Quick QuoteGS-Free Report) for the market to entirely correct. Still, we are due for consolidation over the next few months, aka a rolling correction.\nWe are now entering a pivotal point in this maturing market cycle. Q2 earnings season has been tremendous thus far, with earnings soaring 105% on sales up over 22% from a year ago. 91% of the reported companies beating EPS estimates, and over 86% beat top-line projections. The richly valued tech sector has demonstrated awe-inspiring Q2 results, with 100% of them exceeding EPS estimates and over 96% beating on revenues, which seemingly justified frothy valuations in the space.\nHowever, analysts are projecting peak earnings growth to be in the rear-view mirror as Q2 earnings season wraps up, and at these rich multiples, valuation compression may be in order. Even with these exceptional quarterly reports and growing full-year estimates, we have seen an undue level of profit-pulling and defensive market positioning. The resurging COVID fears and anticipated shift in monetary policy also weigh on bullish sentiment.\nNevertheless, the enormous amount of cash on the bench is still being put to work, with every marginal dip being bought right back up. The national consumer savings rate in the US sits sizably above the last decade's average. Americans are not only participating in the public equity market at a record rate, but they also have plenty of liquidity to keep buying their favorite stocks.\nStocks remain the most attractive asset class, with negative real interest rates in the bond market, sky-high commodity prices, highly volatile crypto prices, and pricing pressure that most publicly traded companies have been able to easily transfer to their end-markets (illustrated by Q2 margin results).\nI expect to see a rolling correction, reflected by a consolidating stock market, instead of this 10%+ correction that analysts have been postulating. Range-bound indexes(less than 10% swings) for some time (month or two) would have the same valuation compressing effect as an all-out correction because earnings would be growing while prices remain muted, leading to shrinking P/E multiples (aka rolling correction).\nI foresee a sideways broader market trade until the Delta-variant is no longer a global concern. I remain bullish on stocks for the remaining 5 months of 2021 and am confident that the S&P 500 will close out the year higher than it is trading at today.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5449920,"gmtCreate":1628283075370,"gmtModify":1631895296896,"authorId":3581643164424811,"author":{"id":3581643164424811,"idStr":"3581643164424811","authorId":3581643164424811,"name":"我不是股神我是赌神","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e971ed6e3f7b6495a07f7b9b5007ee5","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":899385215,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Ic","text":"Ic","html":"Ic"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":899386520,"gmtCreate":1628160506660,"gmtModify":1633753065755,"author":{"id":"3579391265651951","authorId":"3579391265651951","name":"CharlesKing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8fbdcf3295ba7f84c1f2205610ea968","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3579391265651951","idStr":"3579391265651951"},"htmlText":"Like and comment plz👇👇👇","listText":"Like and comment plz👇👇👇","text":"Like and comment plz👇👇👇","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/899386520","repostId":1121866583,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121866583","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628158108,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1121866583?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-05 18:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What's Next For The S&P 500: 10% Pullback or Rolling Correction?<blockquote>标普500的下一步是什么：10%回调还是滚动修正？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121866583","media":"zacks","summary":"The market has become increasingly rational as this 16-month bull market matures, and index-based up","content":"The market has become increasingly rational as this 16-month bull market matures, and index-based upside potential dwindles every additional percentage they rally. This is a stock picker's market. Quality stocks in well-positioned sectors will have much higher upside potential than most index-tracking ETFs for the remainder of 2021.<blockquote>随着这16个月的牛市的成熟，市场变得越来越理性，基于指数的上涨潜力每增加一个百分比，就会减少。这是一个选股者的市场。在 2021 年剩余时间里，定位良好的行业中的优质股票将比大多数指数跟踪 ETF 具有更高的上涨潜力。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 hasn't seen a pullback of more than 5% so far this year and hasn't seen an actual correction (a pullback of 10% or more) since last September, which was quickly bought back up once that down 10% mark was reached. Despite this blue-chip benchmark not exhibiting any material sell-off, over 90% of its 505 components have experienced a 10% or larger correction in 2021 thus far.<blockquote>今年到目前为止，标普500的回调幅度还没有超过 5%，自去年 9 月以来也没有出现过实际的调整（回调 10% 或更多），一旦达到 10% 的下跌关口，该指数就很快被买回。尽管这个蓝筹股基准没有表现出任何材料抛售，但迄今为止，其 505 个组件中有超过 90% 在 2021 年经历了 10% 或更大的调整。</blockquote> Rotations In &amp; Out of Growth &amp; Value<blockquote>增长与价值的进出轮换</blockquote> Investors have kept the stock market's bull drive alive by rotating in and out of growth and value sectors as portfolio's position for the reopening at the beginning of the year, then turned back to growth stocks when the yield surge began to fade mid-May. This performance deviation is clearly illustrated below with Vanguard's growth-oriented ETF (VUG Quick QuoteVUG-Free Report) in the candlesticks and its value-focused ETF (VTV Quick QuoteVTV-Free Report) represented by the orange line.<blockquote>投资者通过在年初重新开盘时轮换进出成长型和价值型板块来保持股市的牛市势头，然后在5月中旬收益率飙升开始消退时又转向成长型股票。下面烛台中的 Vanguard 以增长为导向的 ETF (VUG Quick QuoteVUG-Free Report) 和以价值为导向的 ETF (VTV Quick QuoteVTV-Free Report) 清楚地说明了这种业绩偏差。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80d0680692ab8ada950167692164017e\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"408\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Image Source: TradingView<blockquote>图片来源：TradingView</blockquote> The year-to-date performance divergence between these two stock groupings illustrates that investors &amp; traders are not buying indiscriminately. Meaning that judgment is going into every trade decision (aka stock picking), causing the market to deflate overstretched areas and reallocate into relatively cheaper spaces.<blockquote>这两个股票组合今年迄今为止的表现差异表明，投资者和交易员并没有不分青红皂白地购买。这意味着这种判断会渗透到每一个交易决策（又名选股）中，导致市场收缩过度紧张的领域并重新分配到相对便宜的领域。</blockquote> Accelerating Annualized Returns<blockquote>加速年化回报</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 has remained above an extraordinary 75% annualized return trendline for over 16 months now. Unfortunately, this rate of return isn't even close to sustainable.<blockquote>16 个月来，标普500一直保持在 75% 的年化回报率趋势线之上。不幸的是，这种回报率甚至远未达到可持续水平。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 has averaged 12% upside a year over the past 3 decades. However, the average annual growth rate has aged like fine wine. This blue-chip benchmark has demonstrated an average annualized return of nearly 15% over the past decade, and if narrowed down to just the last 5 years, those annual gains go up to over 16%.<blockquote>过去 30 年来，标普500平均每年上涨 12%。然而，年均增长率却像美酒一样陈年。这一蓝筹股基准在过去十年中的平均年化回报率接近 15%，如果缩小到过去 5 年，这些年收益将超过 16%。</blockquote> The stock market is experiencing swelling average annual gains because of the rapid acceleration of technology that continuously accelerates companies' and our economy's growth outlook. I expect to see continued annualized return acceleration over the next decade as tech makes up a growing portion of the public equity market. Nevertheless, a rolling 75% annualized return out of the S&amp;P 500 isn't viable.<blockquote>由于技术的快速发展不断加速公司和我们经济的增长前景，股市正在经历不断膨胀的年均涨幅。随着科技在公共股票市场中所占份额越来越大，我预计未来十年年化回报率将继续加速。然而，标普500滚动 75% 的年化回报率是不可行的。</blockquote> There may be too much sideline capital (a record 5.5 trillion in money market funds, according to Goldman Sachs (GS Quick QuoteGS-Free Report) for the market to entirely correct. Still, we are due for consolidation over the next few months, aka a rolling correction.<blockquote>可能有太多的边际资本（根据高盛（GS Quick QuoteGS-Free Report）的数据，货币市场基金达到创纪录的5.5万亿美元，市场无法完全纠正。尽管如此，我们仍将在未来几个月进行整合，也就是滚动调整。</blockquote> We are now entering a pivotal point in this maturing market cycle. Q2 earnings season has been tremendous thus far, with earnings soaring 105% on sales up over 22% from a year ago. 91% of the reported companies beating EPS estimates, and over 86% beat top-line projections. The richly valued tech sector has demonstrated awe-inspiring Q2 results, with 100% of them exceeding EPS estimates and over 96% beating on revenues, which seemingly justified frothy valuations in the space.<blockquote>我们现在正进入这个成熟市场周期的关键点。到目前为止，第二季度财报季表现非常出色，盈利飙升 105%，销售额同比增长 22% 以上。91% 的报告公司超出了每股收益预期，超过 86% 的公司超出了营收预测。估值极高的科技行业第二季度业绩令人敬畏，其中 100% 的业绩超出了每股收益预期，超过 96% 的业绩超出了收入预期，这似乎证明了该领域的泡沫估值是合理的。</blockquote> However, analysts are projecting peak earnings growth to be in the rear-view mirror as Q2 earnings season wraps up, and at these rich multiples, valuation compression may be in order. Even with these exceptional quarterly reports and growing full-year estimates, we have seen an undue level of profit-pulling and defensive market positioning. The resurging COVID fears and anticipated shift in monetary policy also weigh on bullish sentiment.<blockquote>然而，分析师预计，随着第二季度财报季的结束，盈利增长峰值将成为过去，在这些丰富的市盈率下，估值可能会压缩。即使有这些出色的季度报告和不断增长的全年预期，我们也看到了过度的利润拉动和防御性市场定位。新冠疫情担忧的死灰复燃和货币政策的预期转变也打压了看涨情绪。</blockquote> Nevertheless, the enormous amount of cash on the bench is still being put to work, with every marginal dip being bought right back up. The national consumer savings rate in the US sits sizably above the last decade's average. Americans are not only participating in the public equity market at a record rate, but they also have plenty of liquidity to keep buying their favorite stocks.<blockquote>尽管如此，板凳上的巨额现金仍在发挥作用，每一次边际下跌都会被买回。美国全国消费者储蓄率远高于过去十年的平均水平。美国人不仅以创纪录的速度参与公共股权市场，而且他们还有充足的流动性来继续购买他们喜欢的股票。</blockquote> Stocks remain the most attractive asset class, with negative real interest rates in the bond market, sky-high commodity prices, highly volatile crypto prices, and pricing pressure that most publicly traded companies have been able to easily transfer to their end-markets (illustrated by Q2 margin results).<blockquote>股票仍然是最具吸引力的资产类别，债券市场的负实际利率、天价商品价格、高度波动的加密货币价格以及大多数上市公司能够轻松转移到终端市场的定价压力（第二季度利润率结果说明）。</blockquote> I expect to see a rolling correction, reflected by a consolidating stock market, instead of this 10%+ correction that analysts have been postulating. Range-bound indexes(less than 10% swings) for some time (month or two) would have the same valuation compressing effect as an all-out correction because earnings would be growing while prices remain muted, leading to shrinking P/E multiples (aka rolling correction).<blockquote>我预计会看到股市盘整所反映的滚动调整，而不是分析师一直假设的 10% 以上的调整。在一段时间（一两个月）内（波动小于 10%）的区间指数（波动小于 10%）会产生与全面修正相同的估值压缩效果，因为收益会增长，而价格保持低迷，导致市盈率缩小（又名滚动修正）。</blockquote> I foresee a sideways broader market trade until the Delta-variant is no longer a global concern. I remain bullish on stocks for the remaining 5 months of 2021 and am confident that the S&amp;P 500 will close out the year higher than it is trading at today.<blockquote>我预计市场交易将横盘整理，直到Delta变体不再是全球关注的问题。在2021年剩余的5个月里，我仍然看好股市，并相信标普500将以高于今天的交易价格结束这一年。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What's Next For The S&P 500: 10% Pullback or Rolling Correction?<blockquote>标普500的下一步是什么：10%回调还是滚动修正？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat's Next For The S&P 500: 10% Pullback or Rolling Correction?<blockquote>标普500的下一步是什么：10%回调还是滚动修正？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzacks2021-08-05 18:08\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe market has become increasingly rational as this 16-month bull market matures, and index-based upside potential dwindles every additional percentage they rally. This is a stock picker's market. Quality stocks in well-positioned sectors will have much higher upside potential than most index-tracking ETFs for the remainder of 2021.<blockquote>随着这16个月的牛市的成熟，市场变得越来越理性，基于指数的上涨潜力每增加一个百分比，就会减少。这是一个选股者的市场。在 2021 年剩余时间里，定位良好的行业中的优质股票将比大多数指数跟踪 ETF 具有更高的上涨潜力。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 hasn't seen a pullback of more than 5% so far this year and hasn't seen an actual correction (a pullback of 10% or more) since last September, which was quickly bought back up once that down 10% mark was reached. Despite this blue-chip benchmark not exhibiting any material sell-off, over 90% of its 505 components have experienced a 10% or larger correction in 2021 thus far.<blockquote>今年到目前为止，标普500的回调幅度还没有超过 5%，自去年 9 月以来也没有出现过实际的调整（回调 10% 或更多），一旦达到 10% 的下跌关口，该指数就很快被买回。尽管这个蓝筹股基准没有表现出任何材料抛售，但迄今为止，其 505 个组件中有超过 90% 在 2021 年经历了 10% 或更大的调整。</blockquote> Rotations In &amp; Out of Growth &amp; Value<blockquote>增长与价值的进出轮换</blockquote> Investors have kept the stock market's bull drive alive by rotating in and out of growth and value sectors as portfolio's position for the reopening at the beginning of the year, then turned back to growth stocks when the yield surge began to fade mid-May. This performance deviation is clearly illustrated below with Vanguard's growth-oriented ETF (VUG Quick QuoteVUG-Free Report) in the candlesticks and its value-focused ETF (VTV Quick QuoteVTV-Free Report) represented by the orange line.<blockquote>投资者通过在年初重新开盘时轮换进出成长型和价值型板块来保持股市的牛市势头，然后在5月中旬收益率飙升开始消退时又转向成长型股票。下面烛台中的 Vanguard 以增长为导向的 ETF (VUG Quick QuoteVUG-Free Report) 和以价值为导向的 ETF (VTV Quick QuoteVTV-Free Report) 清楚地说明了这种业绩偏差。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80d0680692ab8ada950167692164017e\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"408\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Image Source: TradingView<blockquote>图片来源：TradingView</blockquote> The year-to-date performance divergence between these two stock groupings illustrates that investors &amp; traders are not buying indiscriminately. Meaning that judgment is going into every trade decision (aka stock picking), causing the market to deflate overstretched areas and reallocate into relatively cheaper spaces.<blockquote>这两个股票组合今年迄今为止的表现差异表明，投资者和交易员并没有不分青红皂白地购买。这意味着这种判断会渗透到每一个交易决策（又名选股）中，导致市场收缩过度紧张的领域并重新分配到相对便宜的领域。</blockquote> Accelerating Annualized Returns<blockquote>加速年化回报</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 has remained above an extraordinary 75% annualized return trendline for over 16 months now. Unfortunately, this rate of return isn't even close to sustainable.<blockquote>16 个月来，标普500一直保持在 75% 的年化回报率趋势线之上。不幸的是，这种回报率甚至远未达到可持续水平。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 has averaged 12% upside a year over the past 3 decades. However, the average annual growth rate has aged like fine wine. This blue-chip benchmark has demonstrated an average annualized return of nearly 15% over the past decade, and if narrowed down to just the last 5 years, those annual gains go up to over 16%.<blockquote>过去 30 年来，标普500平均每年上涨 12%。然而，年均增长率却像美酒一样陈年。这一蓝筹股基准在过去十年中的平均年化回报率接近 15%，如果缩小到过去 5 年，这些年收益将超过 16%。</blockquote> The stock market is experiencing swelling average annual gains because of the rapid acceleration of technology that continuously accelerates companies' and our economy's growth outlook. I expect to see continued annualized return acceleration over the next decade as tech makes up a growing portion of the public equity market. Nevertheless, a rolling 75% annualized return out of the S&amp;P 500 isn't viable.<blockquote>由于技术的快速发展不断加速公司和我们经济的增长前景，股市正在经历不断膨胀的年均涨幅。随着科技在公共股票市场中所占份额越来越大，我预计未来十年年化回报率将继续加速。然而，标普500滚动 75% 的年化回报率是不可行的。</blockquote> There may be too much sideline capital (a record 5.5 trillion in money market funds, according to Goldman Sachs (GS Quick QuoteGS-Free Report) for the market to entirely correct. Still, we are due for consolidation over the next few months, aka a rolling correction.<blockquote>可能有太多的边际资本（根据高盛（GS Quick QuoteGS-Free Report）的数据，货币市场基金达到创纪录的5.5万亿美元，市场无法完全纠正。尽管如此，我们仍将在未来几个月进行整合，也就是滚动调整。</blockquote> We are now entering a pivotal point in this maturing market cycle. Q2 earnings season has been tremendous thus far, with earnings soaring 105% on sales up over 22% from a year ago. 91% of the reported companies beating EPS estimates, and over 86% beat top-line projections. The richly valued tech sector has demonstrated awe-inspiring Q2 results, with 100% of them exceeding EPS estimates and over 96% beating on revenues, which seemingly justified frothy valuations in the space.<blockquote>我们现在正进入这个成熟市场周期的关键点。到目前为止，第二季度财报季表现非常出色，盈利飙升 105%，销售额同比增长 22% 以上。91% 的报告公司超出了每股收益预期，超过 86% 的公司超出了营收预测。估值极高的科技行业第二季度业绩令人敬畏，其中 100% 的业绩超出了每股收益预期，超过 96% 的业绩超出了收入预期，这似乎证明了该领域的泡沫估值是合理的。</blockquote> However, analysts are projecting peak earnings growth to be in the rear-view mirror as Q2 earnings season wraps up, and at these rich multiples, valuation compression may be in order. Even with these exceptional quarterly reports and growing full-year estimates, we have seen an undue level of profit-pulling and defensive market positioning. The resurging COVID fears and anticipated shift in monetary policy also weigh on bullish sentiment.<blockquote>然而，分析师预计，随着第二季度财报季的结束，盈利增长峰值将成为过去，在这些丰富的市盈率下，估值可能会压缩。即使有这些出色的季度报告和不断增长的全年预期，我们也看到了过度的利润拉动和防御性市场定位。新冠疫情担忧的死灰复燃和货币政策的预期转变也打压了看涨情绪。</blockquote> Nevertheless, the enormous amount of cash on the bench is still being put to work, with every marginal dip being bought right back up. The national consumer savings rate in the US sits sizably above the last decade's average. Americans are not only participating in the public equity market at a record rate, but they also have plenty of liquidity to keep buying their favorite stocks.<blockquote>尽管如此，板凳上的巨额现金仍在发挥作用，每一次边际下跌都会被买回。美国全国消费者储蓄率远高于过去十年的平均水平。美国人不仅以创纪录的速度参与公共股权市场，而且他们还有充足的流动性来继续购买他们喜欢的股票。</blockquote> Stocks remain the most attractive asset class, with negative real interest rates in the bond market, sky-high commodity prices, highly volatile crypto prices, and pricing pressure that most publicly traded companies have been able to easily transfer to their end-markets (illustrated by Q2 margin results).<blockquote>股票仍然是最具吸引力的资产类别，债券市场的负实际利率、天价商品价格、高度波动的加密货币价格以及大多数上市公司能够轻松转移到终端市场的定价压力（第二季度利润率结果说明）。</blockquote> I expect to see a rolling correction, reflected by a consolidating stock market, instead of this 10%+ correction that analysts have been postulating. Range-bound indexes(less than 10% swings) for some time (month or two) would have the same valuation compressing effect as an all-out correction because earnings would be growing while prices remain muted, leading to shrinking P/E multiples (aka rolling correction).<blockquote>我预计会看到股市盘整所反映的滚动调整，而不是分析师一直假设的 10% 以上的调整。在一段时间（一两个月）内（波动小于 10%）的区间指数（波动小于 10%）会产生与全面修正相同的估值压缩效果，因为收益会增长，而价格保持低迷，导致市盈率缩小（又名滚动修正）。</blockquote> I foresee a sideways broader market trade until the Delta-variant is no longer a global concern. I remain bullish on stocks for the remaining 5 months of 2021 and am confident that the S&amp;P 500 will close out the year higher than it is trading at today.<blockquote>我预计市场交易将横盘整理，直到Delta变体不再是全球关注的问题。在2021年剩余的5个月里，我仍然看好股市，并相信标普500将以高于今天的交易价格结束这一年。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zacks.com/commentary/1773639/whats-next-for-the-sp-500-10-pullback-or-rolling-correction?&art_rec=home-home-investment_ideas_stocks-ID09-txt-1278004\">zacks</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zacks.com/commentary/1773639/whats-next-for-the-sp-500-10-pullback-or-rolling-correction?&art_rec=home-home-investment_ideas_stocks-ID09-txt-1278004","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121866583","content_text":"The market has become increasingly rational as this 16-month bull market matures, and index-based upside potential dwindles every additional percentage they rally. This is a stock picker's market. Quality stocks in well-positioned sectors will have much higher upside potential than most index-tracking ETFs for the remainder of 2021.\nThe S&P 500 hasn't seen a pullback of more than 5% so far this year and hasn't seen an actual correction (a pullback of 10% or more) since last September, which was quickly bought back up once that down 10% mark was reached. Despite this blue-chip benchmark not exhibiting any material sell-off, over 90% of its 505 components have experienced a 10% or larger correction in 2021 thus far.\nRotations In & Out of Growth & Value\nInvestors have kept the stock market's bull drive alive by rotating in and out of growth and value sectors as portfolio's position for the reopening at the beginning of the year, then turned back to growth stocks when the yield surge began to fade mid-May. This performance deviation is clearly illustrated below with Vanguard's growth-oriented ETF (VUG Quick QuoteVUG-Free Report) in the candlesticks and its value-focused ETF (VTV Quick QuoteVTV-Free Report) represented by the orange line.\n\nImage Source: TradingView\nThe year-to-date performance divergence between these two stock groupings illustrates that investors & traders are not buying indiscriminately. Meaning that judgment is going into every trade decision (aka stock picking), causing the market to deflate overstretched areas and reallocate into relatively cheaper spaces.\nAccelerating Annualized Returns\nThe S&P 500 has remained above an extraordinary 75% annualized return trendline for over 16 months now. Unfortunately, this rate of return isn't even close to sustainable.\nThe S&P 500 has averaged 12% upside a year over the past 3 decades. However, the average annual growth rate has aged like fine wine. This blue-chip benchmark has demonstrated an average annualized return of nearly 15% over the past decade, and if narrowed down to just the last 5 years, those annual gains go up to over 16%.\nThe stock market is experiencing swelling average annual gains because of the rapid acceleration of technology that continuously accelerates companies' and our economy's growth outlook. I expect to see continued annualized return acceleration over the next decade as tech makes up a growing portion of the public equity market. Nevertheless, a rolling 75% annualized return out of the S&P 500 isn't viable.\nThere may be too much sideline capital (a record 5.5 trillion in money market funds, according to Goldman Sachs (GS Quick QuoteGS-Free Report) for the market to entirely correct. Still, we are due for consolidation over the next few months, aka a rolling correction.\nWe are now entering a pivotal point in this maturing market cycle. Q2 earnings season has been tremendous thus far, with earnings soaring 105% on sales up over 22% from a year ago. 91% of the reported companies beating EPS estimates, and over 86% beat top-line projections. The richly valued tech sector has demonstrated awe-inspiring Q2 results, with 100% of them exceeding EPS estimates and over 96% beating on revenues, which seemingly justified frothy valuations in the space.\nHowever, analysts are projecting peak earnings growth to be in the rear-view mirror as Q2 earnings season wraps up, and at these rich multiples, valuation compression may be in order. Even with these exceptional quarterly reports and growing full-year estimates, we have seen an undue level of profit-pulling and defensive market positioning. The resurging COVID fears and anticipated shift in monetary policy also weigh on bullish sentiment.\nNevertheless, the enormous amount of cash on the bench is still being put to work, with every marginal dip being bought right back up. The national consumer savings rate in the US sits sizably above the last decade's average. Americans are not only participating in the public equity market at a record rate, but they also have plenty of liquidity to keep buying their favorite stocks.\nStocks remain the most attractive asset class, with negative real interest rates in the bond market, sky-high commodity prices, highly volatile crypto prices, and pricing pressure that most publicly traded companies have been able to easily transfer to their end-markets (illustrated by Q2 margin results).\nI expect to see a rolling correction, reflected by a consolidating stock market, instead of this 10%+ correction that analysts have been postulating. Range-bound indexes(less than 10% swings) for some time (month or two) would have the same valuation compressing effect as an all-out correction because earnings would be growing while prices remain muted, leading to shrinking P/E multiples (aka rolling correction).\nI foresee a sideways broader market trade until the Delta-variant is no longer a global concern. I remain bullish on stocks for the remaining 5 months of 2021 and am confident that the S&P 500 will close out the year higher than it is trading at today.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5435645,"gmtCreate":1628160582340,"gmtModify":1635159407268,"authorId":3585722115143639,"author":{"id":3585722115143639,"idStr":"3585722115143639","authorId":3585722115143639,"name":"Lemb77","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f5d8963029154b3c0fbba5bcc6c8c2a","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":899386520,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Like ","text":"Like ","html":"Like "}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":899381968,"gmtCreate":1628160291754,"gmtModify":1633753067425,"author":{"id":"3566353609041424","authorId":"3566353609041424","name":"carceng","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3566353609041424","idStr":"3566353609041424"},"htmlText":"Please like thank you","listText":"Please like thank you","text":"Please like thank you","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/899381968","repostId":1121866583,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121866583","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628158108,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1121866583?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-05 18:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What's Next For The S&P 500: 10% Pullback or Rolling Correction?<blockquote>标普500的下一步是什么：10%回调还是滚动修正？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121866583","media":"zacks","summary":"The market has become increasingly rational as this 16-month bull market matures, and index-based up","content":"The market has become increasingly rational as this 16-month bull market matures, and index-based upside potential dwindles every additional percentage they rally. This is a stock picker's market. Quality stocks in well-positioned sectors will have much higher upside potential than most index-tracking ETFs for the remainder of 2021.<blockquote>随着这16个月的牛市的成熟，市场变得越来越理性，基于指数的上涨潜力每增加一个百分比，就会减少。这是一个选股者的市场。在 2021 年剩余时间里，定位良好的行业中的优质股票将比大多数指数跟踪 ETF 具有更高的上涨潜力。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 hasn't seen a pullback of more than 5% so far this year and hasn't seen an actual correction (a pullback of 10% or more) since last September, which was quickly bought back up once that down 10% mark was reached. Despite this blue-chip benchmark not exhibiting any material sell-off, over 90% of its 505 components have experienced a 10% or larger correction in 2021 thus far.<blockquote>今年到目前为止，标普500的回调幅度还没有超过 5%，自去年 9 月以来也没有出现过实际的调整（回调 10% 或更多），一旦达到 10% 的下跌关口，该指数就很快被买回。尽管这个蓝筹股基准没有表现出任何材料抛售，但迄今为止，其 505 个组件中有超过 90% 在 2021 年经历了 10% 或更大的调整。</blockquote> Rotations In &amp; Out of Growth &amp; Value<blockquote>增长与价值的进出轮换</blockquote> Investors have kept the stock market's bull drive alive by rotating in and out of growth and value sectors as portfolio's position for the reopening at the beginning of the year, then turned back to growth stocks when the yield surge began to fade mid-May. This performance deviation is clearly illustrated below with Vanguard's growth-oriented ETF (VUG Quick QuoteVUG-Free Report) in the candlesticks and its value-focused ETF (VTV Quick QuoteVTV-Free Report) represented by the orange line.<blockquote>投资者通过在年初重新开盘时轮换进出成长型和价值型板块来保持股市的牛市势头，然后在5月中旬收益率飙升开始消退时又转向成长型股票。下面烛台中的 Vanguard 以增长为导向的 ETF (VUG Quick QuoteVUG-Free Report) 和以价值为导向的 ETF (VTV Quick QuoteVTV-Free Report) 清楚地说明了这种业绩偏差。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80d0680692ab8ada950167692164017e\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"408\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Image Source: TradingView<blockquote>图片来源：TradingView</blockquote> The year-to-date performance divergence between these two stock groupings illustrates that investors &amp; traders are not buying indiscriminately. Meaning that judgment is going into every trade decision (aka stock picking), causing the market to deflate overstretched areas and reallocate into relatively cheaper spaces.<blockquote>这两个股票组合今年迄今为止的表现差异表明，投资者和交易员并没有不分青红皂白地购买。这意味着这种判断会渗透到每一个交易决策（又名选股）中，导致市场收缩过度紧张的领域并重新分配到相对便宜的领域。</blockquote> Accelerating Annualized Returns<blockquote>加速年化回报</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 has remained above an extraordinary 75% annualized return trendline for over 16 months now. Unfortunately, this rate of return isn't even close to sustainable.<blockquote>16 个月来，标普500一直保持在 75% 的年化回报率趋势线之上。不幸的是，这种回报率甚至远未达到可持续水平。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 has averaged 12% upside a year over the past 3 decades. However, the average annual growth rate has aged like fine wine. This blue-chip benchmark has demonstrated an average annualized return of nearly 15% over the past decade, and if narrowed down to just the last 5 years, those annual gains go up to over 16%.<blockquote>过去 30 年来，标普500平均每年上涨 12%。然而，年均增长率却像美酒一样陈年。这一蓝筹股基准在过去十年中的平均年化回报率接近 15%，如果缩小到过去 5 年，这些年收益将超过 16%。</blockquote> The stock market is experiencing swelling average annual gains because of the rapid acceleration of technology that continuously accelerates companies' and our economy's growth outlook. I expect to see continued annualized return acceleration over the next decade as tech makes up a growing portion of the public equity market. Nevertheless, a rolling 75% annualized return out of the S&amp;P 500 isn't viable.<blockquote>由于技术的快速发展不断加速公司和我们经济的增长前景，股市正在经历不断膨胀的年均涨幅。随着科技在公共股票市场中所占份额越来越大，我预计未来十年年化回报率将继续加速。然而，标普500滚动 75% 的年化回报率是不可行的。</blockquote> There may be too much sideline capital (a record 5.5 trillion in money market funds, according to Goldman Sachs (GS Quick QuoteGS-Free Report) for the market to entirely correct. Still, we are due for consolidation over the next few months, aka a rolling correction.<blockquote>可能有太多的边际资本（根据高盛（GS Quick QuoteGS-Free Report）的数据，货币市场基金达到创纪录的5.5万亿美元，市场无法完全纠正。尽管如此，我们仍将在未来几个月进行整合，也就是滚动调整。</blockquote> We are now entering a pivotal point in this maturing market cycle. Q2 earnings season has been tremendous thus far, with earnings soaring 105% on sales up over 22% from a year ago. 91% of the reported companies beating EPS estimates, and over 86% beat top-line projections. The richly valued tech sector has demonstrated awe-inspiring Q2 results, with 100% of them exceeding EPS estimates and over 96% beating on revenues, which seemingly justified frothy valuations in the space.<blockquote>我们现在正进入这个成熟市场周期的关键点。到目前为止，第二季度财报季表现非常出色，盈利飙升 105%，销售额同比增长 22% 以上。91% 的报告公司超出了每股收益预期，超过 86% 的公司超出了营收预测。估值极高的科技行业第二季度业绩令人敬畏，其中 100% 的业绩超出了每股收益预期，超过 96% 的业绩超出了收入预期，这似乎证明了该领域的泡沫估值是合理的。</blockquote> However, analysts are projecting peak earnings growth to be in the rear-view mirror as Q2 earnings season wraps up, and at these rich multiples, valuation compression may be in order. Even with these exceptional quarterly reports and growing full-year estimates, we have seen an undue level of profit-pulling and defensive market positioning. The resurging COVID fears and anticipated shift in monetary policy also weigh on bullish sentiment.<blockquote>然而，分析师预计，随着第二季度财报季的结束，盈利增长峰值将成为过去，在这些丰富的市盈率下，估值可能会压缩。即使有这些出色的季度报告和不断增长的全年预期，我们也看到了过度的利润拉动和防御性市场定位。新冠疫情担忧的死灰复燃和货币政策的预期转变也打压了看涨情绪。</blockquote> Nevertheless, the enormous amount of cash on the bench is still being put to work, with every marginal dip being bought right back up. The national consumer savings rate in the US sits sizably above the last decade's average. Americans are not only participating in the public equity market at a record rate, but they also have plenty of liquidity to keep buying their favorite stocks.<blockquote>尽管如此，板凳上的巨额现金仍在发挥作用，每一次边际下跌都会被买回。美国全国消费者储蓄率远高于过去十年的平均水平。美国人不仅以创纪录的速度参与公共股权市场，而且他们还有充足的流动性来继续购买他们喜欢的股票。</blockquote> Stocks remain the most attractive asset class, with negative real interest rates in the bond market, sky-high commodity prices, highly volatile crypto prices, and pricing pressure that most publicly traded companies have been able to easily transfer to their end-markets (illustrated by Q2 margin results).<blockquote>股票仍然是最具吸引力的资产类别，债券市场的负实际利率、天价商品价格、高度波动的加密货币价格以及大多数上市公司能够轻松转移到终端市场的定价压力（第二季度利润率结果说明）。</blockquote> I expect to see a rolling correction, reflected by a consolidating stock market, instead of this 10%+ correction that analysts have been postulating. Range-bound indexes(less than 10% swings) for some time (month or two) would have the same valuation compressing effect as an all-out correction because earnings would be growing while prices remain muted, leading to shrinking P/E multiples (aka rolling correction).<blockquote>我预计会看到股市盘整所反映的滚动调整，而不是分析师一直假设的 10% 以上的调整。在一段时间（一两个月）内（波动小于 10%）的区间指数（波动小于 10%）会产生与全面修正相同的估值压缩效果，因为收益会增长，而价格保持低迷，导致市盈率缩小（又名滚动修正）。</blockquote> I foresee a sideways broader market trade until the Delta-variant is no longer a global concern. I remain bullish on stocks for the remaining 5 months of 2021 and am confident that the S&amp;P 500 will close out the year higher than it is trading at today.<blockquote>我预计市场交易将横盘整理，直到Delta变体不再是全球关注的问题。在2021年剩余的5个月里，我仍然看好股市，并相信标普500将以高于今天的交易价格结束这一年。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What's Next For The S&P 500: 10% Pullback or Rolling Correction?<blockquote>标普500的下一步是什么：10%回调还是滚动修正？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat's Next For The S&P 500: 10% Pullback or Rolling Correction?<blockquote>标普500的下一步是什么：10%回调还是滚动修正？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzacks2021-08-05 18:08\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe market has become increasingly rational as this 16-month bull market matures, and index-based upside potential dwindles every additional percentage they rally. This is a stock picker's market. Quality stocks in well-positioned sectors will have much higher upside potential than most index-tracking ETFs for the remainder of 2021.<blockquote>随着这16个月的牛市的成熟，市场变得越来越理性，基于指数的上涨潜力每增加一个百分比，就会减少。这是一个选股者的市场。在 2021 年剩余时间里，定位良好的行业中的优质股票将比大多数指数跟踪 ETF 具有更高的上涨潜力。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 hasn't seen a pullback of more than 5% so far this year and hasn't seen an actual correction (a pullback of 10% or more) since last September, which was quickly bought back up once that down 10% mark was reached. Despite this blue-chip benchmark not exhibiting any material sell-off, over 90% of its 505 components have experienced a 10% or larger correction in 2021 thus far.<blockquote>今年到目前为止，标普500的回调幅度还没有超过 5%，自去年 9 月以来也没有出现过实际的调整（回调 10% 或更多），一旦达到 10% 的下跌关口，该指数就很快被买回。尽管这个蓝筹股基准没有表现出任何材料抛售，但迄今为止，其 505 个组件中有超过 90% 在 2021 年经历了 10% 或更大的调整。</blockquote> Rotations In &amp; Out of Growth &amp; Value<blockquote>增长与价值的进出轮换</blockquote> Investors have kept the stock market's bull drive alive by rotating in and out of growth and value sectors as portfolio's position for the reopening at the beginning of the year, then turned back to growth stocks when the yield surge began to fade mid-May. This performance deviation is clearly illustrated below with Vanguard's growth-oriented ETF (VUG Quick QuoteVUG-Free Report) in the candlesticks and its value-focused ETF (VTV Quick QuoteVTV-Free Report) represented by the orange line.<blockquote>投资者通过在年初重新开盘时轮换进出成长型和价值型板块来保持股市的牛市势头，然后在5月中旬收益率飙升开始消退时又转向成长型股票。下面烛台中的 Vanguard 以增长为导向的 ETF (VUG Quick QuoteVUG-Free Report) 和以价值为导向的 ETF (VTV Quick QuoteVTV-Free Report) 清楚地说明了这种业绩偏差。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80d0680692ab8ada950167692164017e\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"408\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Image Source: TradingView<blockquote>图片来源：TradingView</blockquote> The year-to-date performance divergence between these two stock groupings illustrates that investors &amp; traders are not buying indiscriminately. Meaning that judgment is going into every trade decision (aka stock picking), causing the market to deflate overstretched areas and reallocate into relatively cheaper spaces.<blockquote>这两个股票组合今年迄今为止的表现差异表明，投资者和交易员并没有不分青红皂白地购买。这意味着这种判断会渗透到每一个交易决策（又名选股）中，导致市场收缩过度紧张的领域并重新分配到相对便宜的领域。</blockquote> Accelerating Annualized Returns<blockquote>加速年化回报</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 has remained above an extraordinary 75% annualized return trendline for over 16 months now. Unfortunately, this rate of return isn't even close to sustainable.<blockquote>16 个月来，标普500一直保持在 75% 的年化回报率趋势线之上。不幸的是，这种回报率甚至远未达到可持续水平。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 has averaged 12% upside a year over the past 3 decades. However, the average annual growth rate has aged like fine wine. This blue-chip benchmark has demonstrated an average annualized return of nearly 15% over the past decade, and if narrowed down to just the last 5 years, those annual gains go up to over 16%.<blockquote>过去 30 年来，标普500平均每年上涨 12%。然而，年均增长率却像美酒一样陈年。这一蓝筹股基准在过去十年中的平均年化回报率接近 15%，如果缩小到过去 5 年，这些年收益将超过 16%。</blockquote> The stock market is experiencing swelling average annual gains because of the rapid acceleration of technology that continuously accelerates companies' and our economy's growth outlook. I expect to see continued annualized return acceleration over the next decade as tech makes up a growing portion of the public equity market. Nevertheless, a rolling 75% annualized return out of the S&amp;P 500 isn't viable.<blockquote>由于技术的快速发展不断加速公司和我们经济的增长前景，股市正在经历不断膨胀的年均涨幅。随着科技在公共股票市场中所占份额越来越大，我预计未来十年年化回报率将继续加速。然而，标普500滚动 75% 的年化回报率是不可行的。</blockquote> There may be too much sideline capital (a record 5.5 trillion in money market funds, according to Goldman Sachs (GS Quick QuoteGS-Free Report) for the market to entirely correct. Still, we are due for consolidation over the next few months, aka a rolling correction.<blockquote>可能有太多的边际资本（根据高盛（GS Quick QuoteGS-Free Report）的数据，货币市场基金达到创纪录的5.5万亿美元，市场无法完全纠正。尽管如此，我们仍将在未来几个月进行整合，也就是滚动调整。</blockquote> We are now entering a pivotal point in this maturing market cycle. Q2 earnings season has been tremendous thus far, with earnings soaring 105% on sales up over 22% from a year ago. 91% of the reported companies beating EPS estimates, and over 86% beat top-line projections. The richly valued tech sector has demonstrated awe-inspiring Q2 results, with 100% of them exceeding EPS estimates and over 96% beating on revenues, which seemingly justified frothy valuations in the space.<blockquote>我们现在正进入这个成熟市场周期的关键点。到目前为止，第二季度财报季表现非常出色，盈利飙升 105%，销售额同比增长 22% 以上。91% 的报告公司超出了每股收益预期，超过 86% 的公司超出了营收预测。估值极高的科技行业第二季度业绩令人敬畏，其中 100% 的业绩超出了每股收益预期，超过 96% 的业绩超出了收入预期，这似乎证明了该领域的泡沫估值是合理的。</blockquote> However, analysts are projecting peak earnings growth to be in the rear-view mirror as Q2 earnings season wraps up, and at these rich multiples, valuation compression may be in order. Even with these exceptional quarterly reports and growing full-year estimates, we have seen an undue level of profit-pulling and defensive market positioning. The resurging COVID fears and anticipated shift in monetary policy also weigh on bullish sentiment.<blockquote>然而，分析师预计，随着第二季度财报季的结束，盈利增长峰值将成为过去，在这些丰富的市盈率下，估值可能会压缩。即使有这些出色的季度报告和不断增长的全年预期，我们也看到了过度的利润拉动和防御性市场定位。新冠疫情担忧的死灰复燃和货币政策的预期转变也打压了看涨情绪。</blockquote> Nevertheless, the enormous amount of cash on the bench is still being put to work, with every marginal dip being bought right back up. The national consumer savings rate in the US sits sizably above the last decade's average. Americans are not only participating in the public equity market at a record rate, but they also have plenty of liquidity to keep buying their favorite stocks.<blockquote>尽管如此，板凳上的巨额现金仍在发挥作用，每一次边际下跌都会被买回。美国全国消费者储蓄率远高于过去十年的平均水平。美国人不仅以创纪录的速度参与公共股权市场，而且他们还有充足的流动性来继续购买他们喜欢的股票。</blockquote> Stocks remain the most attractive asset class, with negative real interest rates in the bond market, sky-high commodity prices, highly volatile crypto prices, and pricing pressure that most publicly traded companies have been able to easily transfer to their end-markets (illustrated by Q2 margin results).<blockquote>股票仍然是最具吸引力的资产类别，债券市场的负实际利率、天价商品价格、高度波动的加密货币价格以及大多数上市公司能够轻松转移到终端市场的定价压力（第二季度利润率结果说明）。</blockquote> I expect to see a rolling correction, reflected by a consolidating stock market, instead of this 10%+ correction that analysts have been postulating. Range-bound indexes(less than 10% swings) for some time (month or two) would have the same valuation compressing effect as an all-out correction because earnings would be growing while prices remain muted, leading to shrinking P/E multiples (aka rolling correction).<blockquote>我预计会看到股市盘整所反映的滚动调整，而不是分析师一直假设的 10% 以上的调整。在一段时间（一两个月）内（波动小于 10%）的区间指数（波动小于 10%）会产生与全面修正相同的估值压缩效果，因为收益会增长，而价格保持低迷，导致市盈率缩小（又名滚动修正）。</blockquote> I foresee a sideways broader market trade until the Delta-variant is no longer a global concern. I remain bullish on stocks for the remaining 5 months of 2021 and am confident that the S&amp;P 500 will close out the year higher than it is trading at today.<blockquote>我预计市场交易将横盘整理，直到Delta变体不再是全球关注的问题。在2021年剩余的5个月里，我仍然看好股市，并相信标普500将以高于今天的交易价格结束这一年。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zacks.com/commentary/1773639/whats-next-for-the-sp-500-10-pullback-or-rolling-correction?&art_rec=home-home-investment_ideas_stocks-ID09-txt-1278004\">zacks</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zacks.com/commentary/1773639/whats-next-for-the-sp-500-10-pullback-or-rolling-correction?&art_rec=home-home-investment_ideas_stocks-ID09-txt-1278004","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121866583","content_text":"The market has become increasingly rational as this 16-month bull market matures, and index-based upside potential dwindles every additional percentage they rally. This is a stock picker's market. Quality stocks in well-positioned sectors will have much higher upside potential than most index-tracking ETFs for the remainder of 2021.\nThe S&P 500 hasn't seen a pullback of more than 5% so far this year and hasn't seen an actual correction (a pullback of 10% or more) since last September, which was quickly bought back up once that down 10% mark was reached. Despite this blue-chip benchmark not exhibiting any material sell-off, over 90% of its 505 components have experienced a 10% or larger correction in 2021 thus far.\nRotations In & Out of Growth & Value\nInvestors have kept the stock market's bull drive alive by rotating in and out of growth and value sectors as portfolio's position for the reopening at the beginning of the year, then turned back to growth stocks when the yield surge began to fade mid-May. This performance deviation is clearly illustrated below with Vanguard's growth-oriented ETF (VUG Quick QuoteVUG-Free Report) in the candlesticks and its value-focused ETF (VTV Quick QuoteVTV-Free Report) represented by the orange line.\n\nImage Source: TradingView\nThe year-to-date performance divergence between these two stock groupings illustrates that investors & traders are not buying indiscriminately. Meaning that judgment is going into every trade decision (aka stock picking), causing the market to deflate overstretched areas and reallocate into relatively cheaper spaces.\nAccelerating Annualized Returns\nThe S&P 500 has remained above an extraordinary 75% annualized return trendline for over 16 months now. Unfortunately, this rate of return isn't even close to sustainable.\nThe S&P 500 has averaged 12% upside a year over the past 3 decades. However, the average annual growth rate has aged like fine wine. This blue-chip benchmark has demonstrated an average annualized return of nearly 15% over the past decade, and if narrowed down to just the last 5 years, those annual gains go up to over 16%.\nThe stock market is experiencing swelling average annual gains because of the rapid acceleration of technology that continuously accelerates companies' and our economy's growth outlook. I expect to see continued annualized return acceleration over the next decade as tech makes up a growing portion of the public equity market. Nevertheless, a rolling 75% annualized return out of the S&P 500 isn't viable.\nThere may be too much sideline capital (a record 5.5 trillion in money market funds, according to Goldman Sachs (GS Quick QuoteGS-Free Report) for the market to entirely correct. Still, we are due for consolidation over the next few months, aka a rolling correction.\nWe are now entering a pivotal point in this maturing market cycle. Q2 earnings season has been tremendous thus far, with earnings soaring 105% on sales up over 22% from a year ago. 91% of the reported companies beating EPS estimates, and over 86% beat top-line projections. The richly valued tech sector has demonstrated awe-inspiring Q2 results, with 100% of them exceeding EPS estimates and over 96% beating on revenues, which seemingly justified frothy valuations in the space.\nHowever, analysts are projecting peak earnings growth to be in the rear-view mirror as Q2 earnings season wraps up, and at these rich multiples, valuation compression may be in order. Even with these exceptional quarterly reports and growing full-year estimates, we have seen an undue level of profit-pulling and defensive market positioning. The resurging COVID fears and anticipated shift in monetary policy also weigh on bullish sentiment.\nNevertheless, the enormous amount of cash on the bench is still being put to work, with every marginal dip being bought right back up. The national consumer savings rate in the US sits sizably above the last decade's average. Americans are not only participating in the public equity market at a record rate, but they also have plenty of liquidity to keep buying their favorite stocks.\nStocks remain the most attractive asset class, with negative real interest rates in the bond market, sky-high commodity prices, highly volatile crypto prices, and pricing pressure that most publicly traded companies have been able to easily transfer to their end-markets (illustrated by Q2 margin results).\nI expect to see a rolling correction, reflected by a consolidating stock market, instead of this 10%+ correction that analysts have been postulating. Range-bound indexes(less than 10% swings) for some time (month or two) would have the same valuation compressing effect as an all-out correction because earnings would be growing while prices remain muted, leading to shrinking P/E multiples (aka rolling correction).\nI foresee a sideways broader market trade until the Delta-variant is no longer a global concern. I remain bullish on stocks for the remaining 5 months of 2021 and am confident that the S&P 500 will close out the year higher than it is trading at today.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":899381098,"gmtCreate":1628160268114,"gmtModify":1633753067546,"author":{"id":"3587034039252261","authorId":"3587034039252261","name":"Kimmikim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5245979307e650b7f31c25334244e006","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3587034039252261","idStr":"3587034039252261"},"htmlText":"H","listText":"H","text":"H","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/899381098","repostId":1121866583,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121866583","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628158108,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1121866583?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-05 18:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What's Next For The S&P 500: 10% Pullback or Rolling Correction?<blockquote>标普500的下一步是什么：10%回调还是滚动修正？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121866583","media":"zacks","summary":"The market has become increasingly rational as this 16-month bull market matures, and index-based up","content":"The market has become increasingly rational as this 16-month bull market matures, and index-based upside potential dwindles every additional percentage they rally. This is a stock picker's market. Quality stocks in well-positioned sectors will have much higher upside potential than most index-tracking ETFs for the remainder of 2021.<blockquote>随着这16个月的牛市的成熟，市场变得越来越理性，基于指数的上涨潜力每增加一个百分比，就会减少。这是一个选股者的市场。在 2021 年剩余时间里，定位良好的行业中的优质股票将比大多数指数跟踪 ETF 具有更高的上涨潜力。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 hasn't seen a pullback of more than 5% so far this year and hasn't seen an actual correction (a pullback of 10% or more) since last September, which was quickly bought back up once that down 10% mark was reached. Despite this blue-chip benchmark not exhibiting any material sell-off, over 90% of its 505 components have experienced a 10% or larger correction in 2021 thus far.<blockquote>今年到目前为止，标普500的回调幅度还没有超过 5%，自去年 9 月以来也没有出现过实际的调整（回调 10% 或更多），一旦达到 10% 的下跌关口，该指数就很快被买回。尽管这个蓝筹股基准没有表现出任何材料抛售，但迄今为止，其 505 个组件中有超过 90% 在 2021 年经历了 10% 或更大的调整。</blockquote> Rotations In &amp; Out of Growth &amp; Value<blockquote>增长与价值的进出轮换</blockquote> Investors have kept the stock market's bull drive alive by rotating in and out of growth and value sectors as portfolio's position for the reopening at the beginning of the year, then turned back to growth stocks when the yield surge began to fade mid-May. This performance deviation is clearly illustrated below with Vanguard's growth-oriented ETF (VUG Quick QuoteVUG-Free Report) in the candlesticks and its value-focused ETF (VTV Quick QuoteVTV-Free Report) represented by the orange line.<blockquote>投资者通过在年初重新开盘时轮换进出成长型和价值型板块来保持股市的牛市势头，然后在5月中旬收益率飙升开始消退时又转向成长型股票。下面烛台中的 Vanguard 以增长为导向的 ETF (VUG Quick QuoteVUG-Free Report) 和以价值为导向的 ETF (VTV Quick QuoteVTV-Free Report) 清楚地说明了这种业绩偏差。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80d0680692ab8ada950167692164017e\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"408\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Image Source: TradingView<blockquote>图片来源：TradingView</blockquote> The year-to-date performance divergence between these two stock groupings illustrates that investors &amp; traders are not buying indiscriminately. Meaning that judgment is going into every trade decision (aka stock picking), causing the market to deflate overstretched areas and reallocate into relatively cheaper spaces.<blockquote>这两个股票组合今年迄今为止的表现差异表明，投资者和交易员并没有不分青红皂白地购买。这意味着这种判断会渗透到每一个交易决策（又名选股）中，导致市场收缩过度紧张的领域并重新分配到相对便宜的领域。</blockquote> Accelerating Annualized Returns<blockquote>加速年化回报</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 has remained above an extraordinary 75% annualized return trendline for over 16 months now. Unfortunately, this rate of return isn't even close to sustainable.<blockquote>16 个月来，标普500一直保持在 75% 的年化回报率趋势线之上。不幸的是，这种回报率甚至远未达到可持续水平。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 has averaged 12% upside a year over the past 3 decades. However, the average annual growth rate has aged like fine wine. This blue-chip benchmark has demonstrated an average annualized return of nearly 15% over the past decade, and if narrowed down to just the last 5 years, those annual gains go up to over 16%.<blockquote>过去 30 年来，标普500平均每年上涨 12%。然而，年均增长率却像美酒一样陈年。这一蓝筹股基准在过去十年中的平均年化回报率接近 15%，如果缩小到过去 5 年，这些年收益将超过 16%。</blockquote> The stock market is experiencing swelling average annual gains because of the rapid acceleration of technology that continuously accelerates companies' and our economy's growth outlook. I expect to see continued annualized return acceleration over the next decade as tech makes up a growing portion of the public equity market. Nevertheless, a rolling 75% annualized return out of the S&amp;P 500 isn't viable.<blockquote>由于技术的快速发展不断加速公司和我们经济的增长前景，股市正在经历不断膨胀的年均涨幅。随着科技在公共股票市场中所占份额越来越大，我预计未来十年年化回报率将继续加速。然而，标普500滚动 75% 的年化回报率是不可行的。</blockquote> There may be too much sideline capital (a record 5.5 trillion in money market funds, according to Goldman Sachs (GS Quick QuoteGS-Free Report) for the market to entirely correct. Still, we are due for consolidation over the next few months, aka a rolling correction.<blockquote>可能有太多的边际资本（根据高盛（GS Quick QuoteGS-Free Report）的数据，货币市场基金达到创纪录的5.5万亿美元，市场无法完全纠正。尽管如此，我们仍将在未来几个月进行整合，也就是滚动调整。</blockquote> We are now entering a pivotal point in this maturing market cycle. Q2 earnings season has been tremendous thus far, with earnings soaring 105% on sales up over 22% from a year ago. 91% of the reported companies beating EPS estimates, and over 86% beat top-line projections. The richly valued tech sector has demonstrated awe-inspiring Q2 results, with 100% of them exceeding EPS estimates and over 96% beating on revenues, which seemingly justified frothy valuations in the space.<blockquote>我们现在正进入这个成熟市场周期的关键点。到目前为止，第二季度财报季表现非常出色，盈利飙升 105%，销售额同比增长 22% 以上。91% 的报告公司超出了每股收益预期，超过 86% 的公司超出了营收预测。估值极高的科技行业第二季度业绩令人敬畏，其中 100% 的业绩超出了每股收益预期，超过 96% 的业绩超出了收入预期，这似乎证明了该领域的泡沫估值是合理的。</blockquote> However, analysts are projecting peak earnings growth to be in the rear-view mirror as Q2 earnings season wraps up, and at these rich multiples, valuation compression may be in order. Even with these exceptional quarterly reports and growing full-year estimates, we have seen an undue level of profit-pulling and defensive market positioning. The resurging COVID fears and anticipated shift in monetary policy also weigh on bullish sentiment.<blockquote>然而，分析师预计，随着第二季度财报季的结束，盈利增长峰值将成为过去，在这些丰富的市盈率下，估值可能会压缩。即使有这些出色的季度报告和不断增长的全年预期，我们也看到了过度的利润拉动和防御性市场定位。新冠疫情担忧的死灰复燃和货币政策的预期转变也打压了看涨情绪。</blockquote> Nevertheless, the enormous amount of cash on the bench is still being put to work, with every marginal dip being bought right back up. The national consumer savings rate in the US sits sizably above the last decade's average. Americans are not only participating in the public equity market at a record rate, but they also have plenty of liquidity to keep buying their favorite stocks.<blockquote>尽管如此，板凳上的巨额现金仍在发挥作用，每一次边际下跌都会被买回。美国全国消费者储蓄率远高于过去十年的平均水平。美国人不仅以创纪录的速度参与公共股权市场，而且他们还有充足的流动性来继续购买他们喜欢的股票。</blockquote> Stocks remain the most attractive asset class, with negative real interest rates in the bond market, sky-high commodity prices, highly volatile crypto prices, and pricing pressure that most publicly traded companies have been able to easily transfer to their end-markets (illustrated by Q2 margin results).<blockquote>股票仍然是最具吸引力的资产类别，债券市场的负实际利率、天价商品价格、高度波动的加密货币价格以及大多数上市公司能够轻松转移到终端市场的定价压力（第二季度利润率结果说明）。</blockquote> I expect to see a rolling correction, reflected by a consolidating stock market, instead of this 10%+ correction that analysts have been postulating. Range-bound indexes(less than 10% swings) for some time (month or two) would have the same valuation compressing effect as an all-out correction because earnings would be growing while prices remain muted, leading to shrinking P/E multiples (aka rolling correction).<blockquote>我预计会看到股市盘整所反映的滚动调整，而不是分析师一直假设的 10% 以上的调整。在一段时间（一两个月）内（波动小于 10%）的区间指数（波动小于 10%）会产生与全面修正相同的估值压缩效果，因为收益会增长，而价格保持低迷，导致市盈率缩小（又名滚动修正）。</blockquote> I foresee a sideways broader market trade until the Delta-variant is no longer a global concern. I remain bullish on stocks for the remaining 5 months of 2021 and am confident that the S&amp;P 500 will close out the year higher than it is trading at today.<blockquote>我预计市场交易将横盘整理，直到Delta变体不再是全球关注的问题。在2021年剩余的5个月里，我仍然看好股市，并相信标普500将以高于今天的交易价格结束这一年。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What's Next For The S&P 500: 10% Pullback or Rolling Correction?<blockquote>标普500的下一步是什么：10%回调还是滚动修正？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat's Next For The S&P 500: 10% Pullback or Rolling Correction?<blockquote>标普500的下一步是什么：10%回调还是滚动修正？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzacks2021-08-05 18:08\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe market has become increasingly rational as this 16-month bull market matures, and index-based upside potential dwindles every additional percentage they rally. This is a stock picker's market. Quality stocks in well-positioned sectors will have much higher upside potential than most index-tracking ETFs for the remainder of 2021.<blockquote>随着这16个月的牛市的成熟，市场变得越来越理性，基于指数的上涨潜力每增加一个百分比，就会减少。这是一个选股者的市场。在 2021 年剩余时间里，定位良好的行业中的优质股票将比大多数指数跟踪 ETF 具有更高的上涨潜力。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 hasn't seen a pullback of more than 5% so far this year and hasn't seen an actual correction (a pullback of 10% or more) since last September, which was quickly bought back up once that down 10% mark was reached. Despite this blue-chip benchmark not exhibiting any material sell-off, over 90% of its 505 components have experienced a 10% or larger correction in 2021 thus far.<blockquote>今年到目前为止，标普500的回调幅度还没有超过 5%，自去年 9 月以来也没有出现过实际的调整（回调 10% 或更多），一旦达到 10% 的下跌关口，该指数就很快被买回。尽管这个蓝筹股基准没有表现出任何材料抛售，但迄今为止，其 505 个组件中有超过 90% 在 2021 年经历了 10% 或更大的调整。</blockquote> Rotations In &amp; Out of Growth &amp; Value<blockquote>增长与价值的进出轮换</blockquote> Investors have kept the stock market's bull drive alive by rotating in and out of growth and value sectors as portfolio's position for the reopening at the beginning of the year, then turned back to growth stocks when the yield surge began to fade mid-May. This performance deviation is clearly illustrated below with Vanguard's growth-oriented ETF (VUG Quick QuoteVUG-Free Report) in the candlesticks and its value-focused ETF (VTV Quick QuoteVTV-Free Report) represented by the orange line.<blockquote>投资者通过在年初重新开盘时轮换进出成长型和价值型板块来保持股市的牛市势头，然后在5月中旬收益率飙升开始消退时又转向成长型股票。下面烛台中的 Vanguard 以增长为导向的 ETF (VUG Quick QuoteVUG-Free Report) 和以价值为导向的 ETF (VTV Quick QuoteVTV-Free Report) 清楚地说明了这种业绩偏差。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80d0680692ab8ada950167692164017e\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"408\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Image Source: TradingView<blockquote>图片来源：TradingView</blockquote> The year-to-date performance divergence between these two stock groupings illustrates that investors &amp; traders are not buying indiscriminately. Meaning that judgment is going into every trade decision (aka stock picking), causing the market to deflate overstretched areas and reallocate into relatively cheaper spaces.<blockquote>这两个股票组合今年迄今为止的表现差异表明，投资者和交易员并没有不分青红皂白地购买。这意味着这种判断会渗透到每一个交易决策（又名选股）中，导致市场收缩过度紧张的领域并重新分配到相对便宜的领域。</blockquote> Accelerating Annualized Returns<blockquote>加速年化回报</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 has remained above an extraordinary 75% annualized return trendline for over 16 months now. Unfortunately, this rate of return isn't even close to sustainable.<blockquote>16 个月来，标普500一直保持在 75% 的年化回报率趋势线之上。不幸的是，这种回报率甚至远未达到可持续水平。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 has averaged 12% upside a year over the past 3 decades. However, the average annual growth rate has aged like fine wine. This blue-chip benchmark has demonstrated an average annualized return of nearly 15% over the past decade, and if narrowed down to just the last 5 years, those annual gains go up to over 16%.<blockquote>过去 30 年来，标普500平均每年上涨 12%。然而，年均增长率却像美酒一样陈年。这一蓝筹股基准在过去十年中的平均年化回报率接近 15%，如果缩小到过去 5 年，这些年收益将超过 16%。</blockquote> The stock market is experiencing swelling average annual gains because of the rapid acceleration of technology that continuously accelerates companies' and our economy's growth outlook. I expect to see continued annualized return acceleration over the next decade as tech makes up a growing portion of the public equity market. Nevertheless, a rolling 75% annualized return out of the S&amp;P 500 isn't viable.<blockquote>由于技术的快速发展不断加速公司和我们经济的增长前景，股市正在经历不断膨胀的年均涨幅。随着科技在公共股票市场中所占份额越来越大，我预计未来十年年化回报率将继续加速。然而，标普500滚动 75% 的年化回报率是不可行的。</blockquote> There may be too much sideline capital (a record 5.5 trillion in money market funds, according to Goldman Sachs (GS Quick QuoteGS-Free Report) for the market to entirely correct. Still, we are due for consolidation over the next few months, aka a rolling correction.<blockquote>可能有太多的边际资本（根据高盛（GS Quick QuoteGS-Free Report）的数据，货币市场基金达到创纪录的5.5万亿美元，市场无法完全纠正。尽管如此，我们仍将在未来几个月进行整合，也就是滚动调整。</blockquote> We are now entering a pivotal point in this maturing market cycle. Q2 earnings season has been tremendous thus far, with earnings soaring 105% on sales up over 22% from a year ago. 91% of the reported companies beating EPS estimates, and over 86% beat top-line projections. The richly valued tech sector has demonstrated awe-inspiring Q2 results, with 100% of them exceeding EPS estimates and over 96% beating on revenues, which seemingly justified frothy valuations in the space.<blockquote>我们现在正进入这个成熟市场周期的关键点。到目前为止，第二季度财报季表现非常出色，盈利飙升 105%，销售额同比增长 22% 以上。91% 的报告公司超出了每股收益预期，超过 86% 的公司超出了营收预测。估值极高的科技行业第二季度业绩令人敬畏，其中 100% 的业绩超出了每股收益预期，超过 96% 的业绩超出了收入预期，这似乎证明了该领域的泡沫估值是合理的。</blockquote> However, analysts are projecting peak earnings growth to be in the rear-view mirror as Q2 earnings season wraps up, and at these rich multiples, valuation compression may be in order. Even with these exceptional quarterly reports and growing full-year estimates, we have seen an undue level of profit-pulling and defensive market positioning. The resurging COVID fears and anticipated shift in monetary policy also weigh on bullish sentiment.<blockquote>然而，分析师预计，随着第二季度财报季的结束，盈利增长峰值将成为过去，在这些丰富的市盈率下，估值可能会压缩。即使有这些出色的季度报告和不断增长的全年预期，我们也看到了过度的利润拉动和防御性市场定位。新冠疫情担忧的死灰复燃和货币政策的预期转变也打压了看涨情绪。</blockquote> Nevertheless, the enormous amount of cash on the bench is still being put to work, with every marginal dip being bought right back up. The national consumer savings rate in the US sits sizably above the last decade's average. Americans are not only participating in the public equity market at a record rate, but they also have plenty of liquidity to keep buying their favorite stocks.<blockquote>尽管如此，板凳上的巨额现金仍在发挥作用，每一次边际下跌都会被买回。美国全国消费者储蓄率远高于过去十年的平均水平。美国人不仅以创纪录的速度参与公共股权市场，而且他们还有充足的流动性来继续购买他们喜欢的股票。</blockquote> Stocks remain the most attractive asset class, with negative real interest rates in the bond market, sky-high commodity prices, highly volatile crypto prices, and pricing pressure that most publicly traded companies have been able to easily transfer to their end-markets (illustrated by Q2 margin results).<blockquote>股票仍然是最具吸引力的资产类别，债券市场的负实际利率、天价商品价格、高度波动的加密货币价格以及大多数上市公司能够轻松转移到终端市场的定价压力（第二季度利润率结果说明）。</blockquote> I expect to see a rolling correction, reflected by a consolidating stock market, instead of this 10%+ correction that analysts have been postulating. Range-bound indexes(less than 10% swings) for some time (month or two) would have the same valuation compressing effect as an all-out correction because earnings would be growing while prices remain muted, leading to shrinking P/E multiples (aka rolling correction).<blockquote>我预计会看到股市盘整所反映的滚动调整，而不是分析师一直假设的 10% 以上的调整。在一段时间（一两个月）内（波动小于 10%）的区间指数（波动小于 10%）会产生与全面修正相同的估值压缩效果，因为收益会增长，而价格保持低迷，导致市盈率缩小（又名滚动修正）。</blockquote> I foresee a sideways broader market trade until the Delta-variant is no longer a global concern. I remain bullish on stocks for the remaining 5 months of 2021 and am confident that the S&amp;P 500 will close out the year higher than it is trading at today.<blockquote>我预计市场交易将横盘整理，直到Delta变体不再是全球关注的问题。在2021年剩余的5个月里，我仍然看好股市，并相信标普500将以高于今天的交易价格结束这一年。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zacks.com/commentary/1773639/whats-next-for-the-sp-500-10-pullback-or-rolling-correction?&art_rec=home-home-investment_ideas_stocks-ID09-txt-1278004\">zacks</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zacks.com/commentary/1773639/whats-next-for-the-sp-500-10-pullback-or-rolling-correction?&art_rec=home-home-investment_ideas_stocks-ID09-txt-1278004","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121866583","content_text":"The market has become increasingly rational as this 16-month bull market matures, and index-based upside potential dwindles every additional percentage they rally. This is a stock picker's market. Quality stocks in well-positioned sectors will have much higher upside potential than most index-tracking ETFs for the remainder of 2021.\nThe S&P 500 hasn't seen a pullback of more than 5% so far this year and hasn't seen an actual correction (a pullback of 10% or more) since last September, which was quickly bought back up once that down 10% mark was reached. Despite this blue-chip benchmark not exhibiting any material sell-off, over 90% of its 505 components have experienced a 10% or larger correction in 2021 thus far.\nRotations In & Out of Growth & Value\nInvestors have kept the stock market's bull drive alive by rotating in and out of growth and value sectors as portfolio's position for the reopening at the beginning of the year, then turned back to growth stocks when the yield surge began to fade mid-May. This performance deviation is clearly illustrated below with Vanguard's growth-oriented ETF (VUG Quick QuoteVUG-Free Report) in the candlesticks and its value-focused ETF (VTV Quick QuoteVTV-Free Report) represented by the orange line.\n\nImage Source: TradingView\nThe year-to-date performance divergence between these two stock groupings illustrates that investors & traders are not buying indiscriminately. Meaning that judgment is going into every trade decision (aka stock picking), causing the market to deflate overstretched areas and reallocate into relatively cheaper spaces.\nAccelerating Annualized Returns\nThe S&P 500 has remained above an extraordinary 75% annualized return trendline for over 16 months now. Unfortunately, this rate of return isn't even close to sustainable.\nThe S&P 500 has averaged 12% upside a year over the past 3 decades. However, the average annual growth rate has aged like fine wine. This blue-chip benchmark has demonstrated an average annualized return of nearly 15% over the past decade, and if narrowed down to just the last 5 years, those annual gains go up to over 16%.\nThe stock market is experiencing swelling average annual gains because of the rapid acceleration of technology that continuously accelerates companies' and our economy's growth outlook. I expect to see continued annualized return acceleration over the next decade as tech makes up a growing portion of the public equity market. Nevertheless, a rolling 75% annualized return out of the S&P 500 isn't viable.\nThere may be too much sideline capital (a record 5.5 trillion in money market funds, according to Goldman Sachs (GS Quick QuoteGS-Free Report) for the market to entirely correct. Still, we are due for consolidation over the next few months, aka a rolling correction.\nWe are now entering a pivotal point in this maturing market cycle. Q2 earnings season has been tremendous thus far, with earnings soaring 105% on sales up over 22% from a year ago. 91% of the reported companies beating EPS estimates, and over 86% beat top-line projections. The richly valued tech sector has demonstrated awe-inspiring Q2 results, with 100% of them exceeding EPS estimates and over 96% beating on revenues, which seemingly justified frothy valuations in the space.\nHowever, analysts are projecting peak earnings growth to be in the rear-view mirror as Q2 earnings season wraps up, and at these rich multiples, valuation compression may be in order. Even with these exceptional quarterly reports and growing full-year estimates, we have seen an undue level of profit-pulling and defensive market positioning. The resurging COVID fears and anticipated shift in monetary policy also weigh on bullish sentiment.\nNevertheless, the enormous amount of cash on the bench is still being put to work, with every marginal dip being bought right back up. The national consumer savings rate in the US sits sizably above the last decade's average. Americans are not only participating in the public equity market at a record rate, but they also have plenty of liquidity to keep buying their favorite stocks.\nStocks remain the most attractive asset class, with negative real interest rates in the bond market, sky-high commodity prices, highly volatile crypto prices, and pricing pressure that most publicly traded companies have been able to easily transfer to their end-markets (illustrated by Q2 margin results).\nI expect to see a rolling correction, reflected by a consolidating stock market, instead of this 10%+ correction that analysts have been postulating. Range-bound indexes(less than 10% swings) for some time (month or two) would have the same valuation compressing effect as an all-out correction because earnings would be growing while prices remain muted, leading to shrinking P/E multiples (aka rolling correction).\nI foresee a sideways broader market trade until the Delta-variant is no longer a global concern. I remain bullish on stocks for the remaining 5 months of 2021 and am confident that the S&P 500 will close out the year higher than it is trading at today.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":899383272,"gmtCreate":1628160252996,"gmtModify":1633753067770,"author":{"id":"3579641974902127","authorId":"3579641974902127","name":"ivy888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10358949b7fc96b011ec29ca7fd9c9a4","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3579641974902127","idStr":"3579641974902127"},"htmlText":"Like&nbsp;","listText":"Like&nbsp;","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/899383272","repostId":1121866583,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121866583","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628158108,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1121866583?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-05 18:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What's Next For The S&P 500: 10% Pullback or Rolling Correction?<blockquote>标普500的下一步是什么：10%回调还是滚动修正？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121866583","media":"zacks","summary":"The market has become increasingly rational as this 16-month bull market matures, and index-based up","content":"The market has become increasingly rational as this 16-month bull market matures, and index-based upside potential dwindles every additional percentage they rally. This is a stock picker's market. Quality stocks in well-positioned sectors will have much higher upside potential than most index-tracking ETFs for the remainder of 2021.<blockquote>随着这16个月的牛市的成熟，市场变得越来越理性，基于指数的上涨潜力每增加一个百分比，就会减少。这是一个选股者的市场。在 2021 年剩余时间里，定位良好的行业中的优质股票将比大多数指数跟踪 ETF 具有更高的上涨潜力。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 hasn't seen a pullback of more than 5% so far this year and hasn't seen an actual correction (a pullback of 10% or more) since last September, which was quickly bought back up once that down 10% mark was reached. Despite this blue-chip benchmark not exhibiting any material sell-off, over 90% of its 505 components have experienced a 10% or larger correction in 2021 thus far.<blockquote>今年到目前为止，标普500的回调幅度还没有超过 5%，自去年 9 月以来也没有出现过实际的调整（回调 10% 或更多），一旦达到 10% 的下跌关口，该指数就很快被买回。尽管这个蓝筹股基准没有表现出任何材料抛售，但迄今为止，其 505 个组件中有超过 90% 在 2021 年经历了 10% 或更大的调整。</blockquote> Rotations In &amp; Out of Growth &amp; Value<blockquote>增长与价值的进出轮换</blockquote> Investors have kept the stock market's bull drive alive by rotating in and out of growth and value sectors as portfolio's position for the reopening at the beginning of the year, then turned back to growth stocks when the yield surge began to fade mid-May. This performance deviation is clearly illustrated below with Vanguard's growth-oriented ETF (VUG Quick QuoteVUG-Free Report) in the candlesticks and its value-focused ETF (VTV Quick QuoteVTV-Free Report) represented by the orange line.<blockquote>投资者通过在年初重新开盘时轮换进出成长型和价值型板块来保持股市的牛市势头，然后在5月中旬收益率飙升开始消退时又转向成长型股票。下面烛台中的 Vanguard 以增长为导向的 ETF (VUG Quick QuoteVUG-Free Report) 和以价值为导向的 ETF (VTV Quick QuoteVTV-Free Report) 清楚地说明了这种业绩偏差。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80d0680692ab8ada950167692164017e\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"408\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Image Source: TradingView<blockquote>图片来源：TradingView</blockquote> The year-to-date performance divergence between these two stock groupings illustrates that investors &amp; traders are not buying indiscriminately. Meaning that judgment is going into every trade decision (aka stock picking), causing the market to deflate overstretched areas and reallocate into relatively cheaper spaces.<blockquote>这两个股票组合今年迄今为止的表现差异表明，投资者和交易员并没有不分青红皂白地购买。这意味着这种判断会渗透到每一个交易决策（又名选股）中，导致市场收缩过度紧张的领域并重新分配到相对便宜的领域。</blockquote> Accelerating Annualized Returns<blockquote>加速年化回报</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 has remained above an extraordinary 75% annualized return trendline for over 16 months now. Unfortunately, this rate of return isn't even close to sustainable.<blockquote>16 个月来，标普500一直保持在 75% 的年化回报率趋势线之上。不幸的是，这种回报率甚至远未达到可持续水平。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 has averaged 12% upside a year over the past 3 decades. However, the average annual growth rate has aged like fine wine. This blue-chip benchmark has demonstrated an average annualized return of nearly 15% over the past decade, and if narrowed down to just the last 5 years, those annual gains go up to over 16%.<blockquote>过去 30 年来，标普500平均每年上涨 12%。然而，年均增长率却像美酒一样陈年。这一蓝筹股基准在过去十年中的平均年化回报率接近 15%，如果缩小到过去 5 年，这些年收益将超过 16%。</blockquote> The stock market is experiencing swelling average annual gains because of the rapid acceleration of technology that continuously accelerates companies' and our economy's growth outlook. I expect to see continued annualized return acceleration over the next decade as tech makes up a growing portion of the public equity market. Nevertheless, a rolling 75% annualized return out of the S&amp;P 500 isn't viable.<blockquote>由于技术的快速发展不断加速公司和我们经济的增长前景，股市正在经历不断膨胀的年均涨幅。随着科技在公共股票市场中所占份额越来越大，我预计未来十年年化回报率将继续加速。然而，标普500滚动 75% 的年化回报率是不可行的。</blockquote> There may be too much sideline capital (a record 5.5 trillion in money market funds, according to Goldman Sachs (GS Quick QuoteGS-Free Report) for the market to entirely correct. Still, we are due for consolidation over the next few months, aka a rolling correction.<blockquote>可能有太多的边际资本（根据高盛（GS Quick QuoteGS-Free Report）的数据，货币市场基金达到创纪录的5.5万亿美元，市场无法完全纠正。尽管如此，我们仍将在未来几个月进行整合，也就是滚动调整。</blockquote> We are now entering a pivotal point in this maturing market cycle. Q2 earnings season has been tremendous thus far, with earnings soaring 105% on sales up over 22% from a year ago. 91% of the reported companies beating EPS estimates, and over 86% beat top-line projections. The richly valued tech sector has demonstrated awe-inspiring Q2 results, with 100% of them exceeding EPS estimates and over 96% beating on revenues, which seemingly justified frothy valuations in the space.<blockquote>我们现在正进入这个成熟市场周期的关键点。到目前为止，第二季度财报季表现非常出色，盈利飙升 105%，销售额同比增长 22% 以上。91% 的报告公司超出了每股收益预期，超过 86% 的公司超出了营收预测。估值极高的科技行业第二季度业绩令人敬畏，其中 100% 的业绩超出了每股收益预期，超过 96% 的业绩超出了收入预期，这似乎证明了该领域的泡沫估值是合理的。</blockquote> However, analysts are projecting peak earnings growth to be in the rear-view mirror as Q2 earnings season wraps up, and at these rich multiples, valuation compression may be in order. Even with these exceptional quarterly reports and growing full-year estimates, we have seen an undue level of profit-pulling and defensive market positioning. The resurging COVID fears and anticipated shift in monetary policy also weigh on bullish sentiment.<blockquote>然而，分析师预计，随着第二季度财报季的结束，盈利增长峰值将成为过去，在这些丰富的市盈率下，估值可能会压缩。即使有这些出色的季度报告和不断增长的全年预期，我们也看到了过度的利润拉动和防御性市场定位。新冠疫情担忧的死灰复燃和货币政策的预期转变也打压了看涨情绪。</blockquote> Nevertheless, the enormous amount of cash on the bench is still being put to work, with every marginal dip being bought right back up. The national consumer savings rate in the US sits sizably above the last decade's average. Americans are not only participating in the public equity market at a record rate, but they also have plenty of liquidity to keep buying their favorite stocks.<blockquote>尽管如此，板凳上的巨额现金仍在发挥作用，每一次边际下跌都会被买回。美国全国消费者储蓄率远高于过去十年的平均水平。美国人不仅以创纪录的速度参与公共股权市场，而且他们还有充足的流动性来继续购买他们喜欢的股票。</blockquote> Stocks remain the most attractive asset class, with negative real interest rates in the bond market, sky-high commodity prices, highly volatile crypto prices, and pricing pressure that most publicly traded companies have been able to easily transfer to their end-markets (illustrated by Q2 margin results).<blockquote>股票仍然是最具吸引力的资产类别，债券市场的负实际利率、天价商品价格、高度波动的加密货币价格以及大多数上市公司能够轻松转移到终端市场的定价压力（第二季度利润率结果说明）。</blockquote> I expect to see a rolling correction, reflected by a consolidating stock market, instead of this 10%+ correction that analysts have been postulating. Range-bound indexes(less than 10% swings) for some time (month or two) would have the same valuation compressing effect as an all-out correction because earnings would be growing while prices remain muted, leading to shrinking P/E multiples (aka rolling correction).<blockquote>我预计会看到股市盘整所反映的滚动调整，而不是分析师一直假设的 10% 以上的调整。在一段时间（一两个月）内（波动小于 10%）的区间指数（波动小于 10%）会产生与全面修正相同的估值压缩效果，因为收益会增长，而价格保持低迷，导致市盈率缩小（又名滚动修正）。</blockquote> I foresee a sideways broader market trade until the Delta-variant is no longer a global concern. I remain bullish on stocks for the remaining 5 months of 2021 and am confident that the S&amp;P 500 will close out the year higher than it is trading at today.<blockquote>我预计市场交易将横盘整理，直到Delta变体不再是全球关注的问题。在2021年剩余的5个月里，我仍然看好股市，并相信标普500将以高于今天的交易价格结束这一年。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What's Next For The S&P 500: 10% Pullback or Rolling Correction?<blockquote>标普500的下一步是什么：10%回调还是滚动修正？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat's Next For The S&P 500: 10% Pullback or Rolling Correction?<blockquote>标普500的下一步是什么：10%回调还是滚动修正？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzacks2021-08-05 18:08\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe market has become increasingly rational as this 16-month bull market matures, and index-based upside potential dwindles every additional percentage they rally. This is a stock picker's market. Quality stocks in well-positioned sectors will have much higher upside potential than most index-tracking ETFs for the remainder of 2021.<blockquote>随着这16个月的牛市的成熟，市场变得越来越理性，基于指数的上涨潜力每增加一个百分比，就会减少。这是一个选股者的市场。在 2021 年剩余时间里，定位良好的行业中的优质股票将比大多数指数跟踪 ETF 具有更高的上涨潜力。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 hasn't seen a pullback of more than 5% so far this year and hasn't seen an actual correction (a pullback of 10% or more) since last September, which was quickly bought back up once that down 10% mark was reached. Despite this blue-chip benchmark not exhibiting any material sell-off, over 90% of its 505 components have experienced a 10% or larger correction in 2021 thus far.<blockquote>今年到目前为止，标普500的回调幅度还没有超过 5%，自去年 9 月以来也没有出现过实际的调整（回调 10% 或更多），一旦达到 10% 的下跌关口，该指数就很快被买回。尽管这个蓝筹股基准没有表现出任何材料抛售，但迄今为止，其 505 个组件中有超过 90% 在 2021 年经历了 10% 或更大的调整。</blockquote> Rotations In &amp; Out of Growth &amp; Value<blockquote>增长与价值的进出轮换</blockquote> Investors have kept the stock market's bull drive alive by rotating in and out of growth and value sectors as portfolio's position for the reopening at the beginning of the year, then turned back to growth stocks when the yield surge began to fade mid-May. This performance deviation is clearly illustrated below with Vanguard's growth-oriented ETF (VUG Quick QuoteVUG-Free Report) in the candlesticks and its value-focused ETF (VTV Quick QuoteVTV-Free Report) represented by the orange line.<blockquote>投资者通过在年初重新开盘时轮换进出成长型和价值型板块来保持股市的牛市势头，然后在5月中旬收益率飙升开始消退时又转向成长型股票。下面烛台中的 Vanguard 以增长为导向的 ETF (VUG Quick QuoteVUG-Free Report) 和以价值为导向的 ETF (VTV Quick QuoteVTV-Free Report) 清楚地说明了这种业绩偏差。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80d0680692ab8ada950167692164017e\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"408\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Image Source: TradingView<blockquote>图片来源：TradingView</blockquote> The year-to-date performance divergence between these two stock groupings illustrates that investors &amp; traders are not buying indiscriminately. Meaning that judgment is going into every trade decision (aka stock picking), causing the market to deflate overstretched areas and reallocate into relatively cheaper spaces.<blockquote>这两个股票组合今年迄今为止的表现差异表明，投资者和交易员并没有不分青红皂白地购买。这意味着这种判断会渗透到每一个交易决策（又名选股）中，导致市场收缩过度紧张的领域并重新分配到相对便宜的领域。</blockquote> Accelerating Annualized Returns<blockquote>加速年化回报</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 has remained above an extraordinary 75% annualized return trendline for over 16 months now. Unfortunately, this rate of return isn't even close to sustainable.<blockquote>16 个月来，标普500一直保持在 75% 的年化回报率趋势线之上。不幸的是，这种回报率甚至远未达到可持续水平。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 has averaged 12% upside a year over the past 3 decades. However, the average annual growth rate has aged like fine wine. This blue-chip benchmark has demonstrated an average annualized return of nearly 15% over the past decade, and if narrowed down to just the last 5 years, those annual gains go up to over 16%.<blockquote>过去 30 年来，标普500平均每年上涨 12%。然而，年均增长率却像美酒一样陈年。这一蓝筹股基准在过去十年中的平均年化回报率接近 15%，如果缩小到过去 5 年，这些年收益将超过 16%。</blockquote> The stock market is experiencing swelling average annual gains because of the rapid acceleration of technology that continuously accelerates companies' and our economy's growth outlook. I expect to see continued annualized return acceleration over the next decade as tech makes up a growing portion of the public equity market. Nevertheless, a rolling 75% annualized return out of the S&amp;P 500 isn't viable.<blockquote>由于技术的快速发展不断加速公司和我们经济的增长前景，股市正在经历不断膨胀的年均涨幅。随着科技在公共股票市场中所占份额越来越大，我预计未来十年年化回报率将继续加速。然而，标普500滚动 75% 的年化回报率是不可行的。</blockquote> There may be too much sideline capital (a record 5.5 trillion in money market funds, according to Goldman Sachs (GS Quick QuoteGS-Free Report) for the market to entirely correct. Still, we are due for consolidation over the next few months, aka a rolling correction.<blockquote>可能有太多的边际资本（根据高盛（GS Quick QuoteGS-Free Report）的数据，货币市场基金达到创纪录的5.5万亿美元，市场无法完全纠正。尽管如此，我们仍将在未来几个月进行整合，也就是滚动调整。</blockquote> We are now entering a pivotal point in this maturing market cycle. Q2 earnings season has been tremendous thus far, with earnings soaring 105% on sales up over 22% from a year ago. 91% of the reported companies beating EPS estimates, and over 86% beat top-line projections. The richly valued tech sector has demonstrated awe-inspiring Q2 results, with 100% of them exceeding EPS estimates and over 96% beating on revenues, which seemingly justified frothy valuations in the space.<blockquote>我们现在正进入这个成熟市场周期的关键点。到目前为止，第二季度财报季表现非常出色，盈利飙升 105%，销售额同比增长 22% 以上。91% 的报告公司超出了每股收益预期，超过 86% 的公司超出了营收预测。估值极高的科技行业第二季度业绩令人敬畏，其中 100% 的业绩超出了每股收益预期，超过 96% 的业绩超出了收入预期，这似乎证明了该领域的泡沫估值是合理的。</blockquote> However, analysts are projecting peak earnings growth to be in the rear-view mirror as Q2 earnings season wraps up, and at these rich multiples, valuation compression may be in order. Even with these exceptional quarterly reports and growing full-year estimates, we have seen an undue level of profit-pulling and defensive market positioning. The resurging COVID fears and anticipated shift in monetary policy also weigh on bullish sentiment.<blockquote>然而，分析师预计，随着第二季度财报季的结束，盈利增长峰值将成为过去，在这些丰富的市盈率下，估值可能会压缩。即使有这些出色的季度报告和不断增长的全年预期，我们也看到了过度的利润拉动和防御性市场定位。新冠疫情担忧的死灰复燃和货币政策的预期转变也打压了看涨情绪。</blockquote> Nevertheless, the enormous amount of cash on the bench is still being put to work, with every marginal dip being bought right back up. The national consumer savings rate in the US sits sizably above the last decade's average. Americans are not only participating in the public equity market at a record rate, but they also have plenty of liquidity to keep buying their favorite stocks.<blockquote>尽管如此，板凳上的巨额现金仍在发挥作用，每一次边际下跌都会被买回。美国全国消费者储蓄率远高于过去十年的平均水平。美国人不仅以创纪录的速度参与公共股权市场，而且他们还有充足的流动性来继续购买他们喜欢的股票。</blockquote> Stocks remain the most attractive asset class, with negative real interest rates in the bond market, sky-high commodity prices, highly volatile crypto prices, and pricing pressure that most publicly traded companies have been able to easily transfer to their end-markets (illustrated by Q2 margin results).<blockquote>股票仍然是最具吸引力的资产类别，债券市场的负实际利率、天价商品价格、高度波动的加密货币价格以及大多数上市公司能够轻松转移到终端市场的定价压力（第二季度利润率结果说明）。</blockquote> I expect to see a rolling correction, reflected by a consolidating stock market, instead of this 10%+ correction that analysts have been postulating. Range-bound indexes(less than 10% swings) for some time (month or two) would have the same valuation compressing effect as an all-out correction because earnings would be growing while prices remain muted, leading to shrinking P/E multiples (aka rolling correction).<blockquote>我预计会看到股市盘整所反映的滚动调整，而不是分析师一直假设的 10% 以上的调整。在一段时间（一两个月）内（波动小于 10%）的区间指数（波动小于 10%）会产生与全面修正相同的估值压缩效果，因为收益会增长，而价格保持低迷，导致市盈率缩小（又名滚动修正）。</blockquote> I foresee a sideways broader market trade until the Delta-variant is no longer a global concern. I remain bullish on stocks for the remaining 5 months of 2021 and am confident that the S&amp;P 500 will close out the year higher than it is trading at today.<blockquote>我预计市场交易将横盘整理，直到Delta变体不再是全球关注的问题。在2021年剩余的5个月里，我仍然看好股市，并相信标普500将以高于今天的交易价格结束这一年。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zacks.com/commentary/1773639/whats-next-for-the-sp-500-10-pullback-or-rolling-correction?&art_rec=home-home-investment_ideas_stocks-ID09-txt-1278004\">zacks</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zacks.com/commentary/1773639/whats-next-for-the-sp-500-10-pullback-or-rolling-correction?&art_rec=home-home-investment_ideas_stocks-ID09-txt-1278004","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121866583","content_text":"The market has become increasingly rational as this 16-month bull market matures, and index-based upside potential dwindles every additional percentage they rally. This is a stock picker's market. Quality stocks in well-positioned sectors will have much higher upside potential than most index-tracking ETFs for the remainder of 2021.\nThe S&P 500 hasn't seen a pullback of more than 5% so far this year and hasn't seen an actual correction (a pullback of 10% or more) since last September, which was quickly bought back up once that down 10% mark was reached. Despite this blue-chip benchmark not exhibiting any material sell-off, over 90% of its 505 components have experienced a 10% or larger correction in 2021 thus far.\nRotations In & Out of Growth & Value\nInvestors have kept the stock market's bull drive alive by rotating in and out of growth and value sectors as portfolio's position for the reopening at the beginning of the year, then turned back to growth stocks when the yield surge began to fade mid-May. This performance deviation is clearly illustrated below with Vanguard's growth-oriented ETF (VUG Quick QuoteVUG-Free Report) in the candlesticks and its value-focused ETF (VTV Quick QuoteVTV-Free Report) represented by the orange line.\n\nImage Source: TradingView\nThe year-to-date performance divergence between these two stock groupings illustrates that investors & traders are not buying indiscriminately. Meaning that judgment is going into every trade decision (aka stock picking), causing the market to deflate overstretched areas and reallocate into relatively cheaper spaces.\nAccelerating Annualized Returns\nThe S&P 500 has remained above an extraordinary 75% annualized return trendline for over 16 months now. Unfortunately, this rate of return isn't even close to sustainable.\nThe S&P 500 has averaged 12% upside a year over the past 3 decades. However, the average annual growth rate has aged like fine wine. This blue-chip benchmark has demonstrated an average annualized return of nearly 15% over the past decade, and if narrowed down to just the last 5 years, those annual gains go up to over 16%.\nThe stock market is experiencing swelling average annual gains because of the rapid acceleration of technology that continuously accelerates companies' and our economy's growth outlook. I expect to see continued annualized return acceleration over the next decade as tech makes up a growing portion of the public equity market. Nevertheless, a rolling 75% annualized return out of the S&P 500 isn't viable.\nThere may be too much sideline capital (a record 5.5 trillion in money market funds, according to Goldman Sachs (GS Quick QuoteGS-Free Report) for the market to entirely correct. Still, we are due for consolidation over the next few months, aka a rolling correction.\nWe are now entering a pivotal point in this maturing market cycle. Q2 earnings season has been tremendous thus far, with earnings soaring 105% on sales up over 22% from a year ago. 91% of the reported companies beating EPS estimates, and over 86% beat top-line projections. The richly valued tech sector has demonstrated awe-inspiring Q2 results, with 100% of them exceeding EPS estimates and over 96% beating on revenues, which seemingly justified frothy valuations in the space.\nHowever, analysts are projecting peak earnings growth to be in the rear-view mirror as Q2 earnings season wraps up, and at these rich multiples, valuation compression may be in order. Even with these exceptional quarterly reports and growing full-year estimates, we have seen an undue level of profit-pulling and defensive market positioning. The resurging COVID fears and anticipated shift in monetary policy also weigh on bullish sentiment.\nNevertheless, the enormous amount of cash on the bench is still being put to work, with every marginal dip being bought right back up. The national consumer savings rate in the US sits sizably above the last decade's average. Americans are not only participating in the public equity market at a record rate, but they also have plenty of liquidity to keep buying their favorite stocks.\nStocks remain the most attractive asset class, with negative real interest rates in the bond market, sky-high commodity prices, highly volatile crypto prices, and pricing pressure that most publicly traded companies have been able to easily transfer to their end-markets (illustrated by Q2 margin results).\nI expect to see a rolling correction, reflected by a consolidating stock market, instead of this 10%+ correction that analysts have been postulating. Range-bound indexes(less than 10% swings) for some time (month or two) would have the same valuation compressing effect as an all-out correction because earnings would be growing while prices remain muted, leading to shrinking P/E multiples (aka rolling correction).\nI foresee a sideways broader market trade until the Delta-variant is no longer a global concern. I remain bullish on stocks for the remaining 5 months of 2021 and am confident that the S&P 500 will close out the year higher than it is trading at today.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5435608,"gmtCreate":1628160278280,"gmtModify":1635159410767,"authorId":3587034039252261,"author":{"id":3587034039252261,"idStr":"3587034039252261","authorId":3587034039252261,"name":"Kimmikim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5245979307e650b7f31c25334244e006","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":899383272,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Haha","text":"Haha","html":"Haha"},{"id":5435610,"gmtCreate":1628160283334,"gmtModify":1635159410521,"authorId":3566353609041424,"author":{"id":3566353609041424,"idStr":"3566353609041424","authorId":3566353609041424,"name":"carceng","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":899383272,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Hi","text":"Hi","html":"Hi"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":899380807,"gmtCreate":1628160017909,"gmtModify":1631893229288,"author":{"id":"3560893220281291","authorId":"3560893220281291","name":"Ipster","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3560893220281291","idStr":"3560893220281291"},"htmlText":"Give me a like please? [Happy]&nbsp;","listText":"Give me a like please? [Happy]&nbsp;","text":"Give me a like please? [Happy]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/899380807","repostId":1121866583,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121866583","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628158108,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1121866583?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-05 18:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What's Next For The S&P 500: 10% Pullback or Rolling Correction?<blockquote>标普500的下一步是什么：10%回调还是滚动修正？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121866583","media":"zacks","summary":"The market has become increasingly rational as this 16-month bull market matures, and index-based up","content":"The market has become increasingly rational as this 16-month bull market matures, and index-based upside potential dwindles every additional percentage they rally. This is a stock picker's market. Quality stocks in well-positioned sectors will have much higher upside potential than most index-tracking ETFs for the remainder of 2021.<blockquote>随着这16个月的牛市的成熟，市场变得越来越理性，基于指数的上涨潜力每增加一个百分比，就会减少。这是一个选股者的市场。在 2021 年剩余时间里，定位良好的行业中的优质股票将比大多数指数跟踪 ETF 具有更高的上涨潜力。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 hasn't seen a pullback of more than 5% so far this year and hasn't seen an actual correction (a pullback of 10% or more) since last September, which was quickly bought back up once that down 10% mark was reached. Despite this blue-chip benchmark not exhibiting any material sell-off, over 90% of its 505 components have experienced a 10% or larger correction in 2021 thus far.<blockquote>今年到目前为止，标普500的回调幅度还没有超过 5%，自去年 9 月以来也没有出现过实际的调整（回调 10% 或更多），一旦达到 10% 的下跌关口，该指数就很快被买回。尽管这个蓝筹股基准没有表现出任何材料抛售，但迄今为止，其 505 个组件中有超过 90% 在 2021 年经历了 10% 或更大的调整。</blockquote> Rotations In &amp; Out of Growth &amp; Value<blockquote>增长与价值的进出轮换</blockquote> Investors have kept the stock market's bull drive alive by rotating in and out of growth and value sectors as portfolio's position for the reopening at the beginning of the year, then turned back to growth stocks when the yield surge began to fade mid-May. This performance deviation is clearly illustrated below with Vanguard's growth-oriented ETF (VUG Quick QuoteVUG-Free Report) in the candlesticks and its value-focused ETF (VTV Quick QuoteVTV-Free Report) represented by the orange line.<blockquote>投资者通过在年初重新开盘时轮换进出成长型和价值型板块来保持股市的牛市势头，然后在5月中旬收益率飙升开始消退时又转向成长型股票。下面烛台中的 Vanguard 以增长为导向的 ETF (VUG Quick QuoteVUG-Free Report) 和以价值为导向的 ETF (VTV Quick QuoteVTV-Free Report) 清楚地说明了这种业绩偏差。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80d0680692ab8ada950167692164017e\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"408\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Image Source: TradingView<blockquote>图片来源：TradingView</blockquote> The year-to-date performance divergence between these two stock groupings illustrates that investors &amp; traders are not buying indiscriminately. Meaning that judgment is going into every trade decision (aka stock picking), causing the market to deflate overstretched areas and reallocate into relatively cheaper spaces.<blockquote>这两个股票组合今年迄今为止的表现差异表明，投资者和交易员并没有不分青红皂白地购买。这意味着这种判断会渗透到每一个交易决策（又名选股）中，导致市场收缩过度紧张的领域并重新分配到相对便宜的领域。</blockquote> Accelerating Annualized Returns<blockquote>加速年化回报</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 has remained above an extraordinary 75% annualized return trendline for over 16 months now. Unfortunately, this rate of return isn't even close to sustainable.<blockquote>16 个月来，标普500一直保持在 75% 的年化回报率趋势线之上。不幸的是，这种回报率甚至远未达到可持续水平。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 has averaged 12% upside a year over the past 3 decades. However, the average annual growth rate has aged like fine wine. This blue-chip benchmark has demonstrated an average annualized return of nearly 15% over the past decade, and if narrowed down to just the last 5 years, those annual gains go up to over 16%.<blockquote>过去 30 年来，标普500平均每年上涨 12%。然而，年均增长率却像美酒一样陈年。这一蓝筹股基准在过去十年中的平均年化回报率接近 15%，如果缩小到过去 5 年，这些年收益将超过 16%。</blockquote> The stock market is experiencing swelling average annual gains because of the rapid acceleration of technology that continuously accelerates companies' and our economy's growth outlook. I expect to see continued annualized return acceleration over the next decade as tech makes up a growing portion of the public equity market. Nevertheless, a rolling 75% annualized return out of the S&amp;P 500 isn't viable.<blockquote>由于技术的快速发展不断加速公司和我们经济的增长前景，股市正在经历不断膨胀的年均涨幅。随着科技在公共股票市场中所占份额越来越大，我预计未来十年年化回报率将继续加速。然而，标普500滚动 75% 的年化回报率是不可行的。</blockquote> There may be too much sideline capital (a record 5.5 trillion in money market funds, according to Goldman Sachs (GS Quick QuoteGS-Free Report) for the market to entirely correct. Still, we are due for consolidation over the next few months, aka a rolling correction.<blockquote>可能有太多的边际资本（根据高盛（GS Quick QuoteGS-Free Report）的数据，货币市场基金达到创纪录的5.5万亿美元，市场无法完全纠正。尽管如此，我们仍将在未来几个月进行整合，也就是滚动调整。</blockquote> We are now entering a pivotal point in this maturing market cycle. Q2 earnings season has been tremendous thus far, with earnings soaring 105% on sales up over 22% from a year ago. 91% of the reported companies beating EPS estimates, and over 86% beat top-line projections. The richly valued tech sector has demonstrated awe-inspiring Q2 results, with 100% of them exceeding EPS estimates and over 96% beating on revenues, which seemingly justified frothy valuations in the space.<blockquote>我们现在正进入这个成熟市场周期的关键点。到目前为止，第二季度财报季表现非常出色，盈利飙升 105%，销售额同比增长 22% 以上。91% 的报告公司超出了每股收益预期，超过 86% 的公司超出了营收预测。估值极高的科技行业第二季度业绩令人敬畏，其中 100% 的业绩超出了每股收益预期，超过 96% 的业绩超出了收入预期，这似乎证明了该领域的泡沫估值是合理的。</blockquote> However, analysts are projecting peak earnings growth to be in the rear-view mirror as Q2 earnings season wraps up, and at these rich multiples, valuation compression may be in order. Even with these exceptional quarterly reports and growing full-year estimates, we have seen an undue level of profit-pulling and defensive market positioning. The resurging COVID fears and anticipated shift in monetary policy also weigh on bullish sentiment.<blockquote>然而，分析师预计，随着第二季度财报季的结束，盈利增长峰值将成为过去，在这些丰富的市盈率下，估值可能会压缩。即使有这些出色的季度报告和不断增长的全年预期，我们也看到了过度的利润拉动和防御性市场定位。新冠疫情担忧的死灰复燃和货币政策的预期转变也打压了看涨情绪。</blockquote> Nevertheless, the enormous amount of cash on the bench is still being put to work, with every marginal dip being bought right back up. The national consumer savings rate in the US sits sizably above the last decade's average. Americans are not only participating in the public equity market at a record rate, but they also have plenty of liquidity to keep buying their favorite stocks.<blockquote>尽管如此，板凳上的巨额现金仍在发挥作用，每一次边际下跌都会被买回。美国全国消费者储蓄率远高于过去十年的平均水平。美国人不仅以创纪录的速度参与公共股权市场，而且他们还有充足的流动性来继续购买他们喜欢的股票。</blockquote> Stocks remain the most attractive asset class, with negative real interest rates in the bond market, sky-high commodity prices, highly volatile crypto prices, and pricing pressure that most publicly traded companies have been able to easily transfer to their end-markets (illustrated by Q2 margin results).<blockquote>股票仍然是最具吸引力的资产类别，债券市场的负实际利率、天价商品价格、高度波动的加密货币价格以及大多数上市公司能够轻松转移到终端市场的定价压力（第二季度利润率结果说明）。</blockquote> I expect to see a rolling correction, reflected by a consolidating stock market, instead of this 10%+ correction that analysts have been postulating. Range-bound indexes(less than 10% swings) for some time (month or two) would have the same valuation compressing effect as an all-out correction because earnings would be growing while prices remain muted, leading to shrinking P/E multiples (aka rolling correction).<blockquote>我预计会看到股市盘整所反映的滚动调整，而不是分析师一直假设的 10% 以上的调整。在一段时间（一两个月）内（波动小于 10%）的区间指数（波动小于 10%）会产生与全面修正相同的估值压缩效果，因为收益会增长，而价格保持低迷，导致市盈率缩小（又名滚动修正）。</blockquote> I foresee a sideways broader market trade until the Delta-variant is no longer a global concern. I remain bullish on stocks for the remaining 5 months of 2021 and am confident that the S&amp;P 500 will close out the year higher than it is trading at today.<blockquote>我预计市场交易将横盘整理，直到Delta变体不再是全球关注的问题。在2021年剩余的5个月里，我仍然看好股市，并相信标普500将以高于今天的交易价格结束这一年。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What's Next For The S&P 500: 10% Pullback or Rolling Correction?<blockquote>标普500的下一步是什么：10%回调还是滚动修正？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat's Next For The S&P 500: 10% Pullback or Rolling Correction?<blockquote>标普500的下一步是什么：10%回调还是滚动修正？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzacks2021-08-05 18:08\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe market has become increasingly rational as this 16-month bull market matures, and index-based upside potential dwindles every additional percentage they rally. This is a stock picker's market. Quality stocks in well-positioned sectors will have much higher upside potential than most index-tracking ETFs for the remainder of 2021.<blockquote>随着这16个月的牛市的成熟，市场变得越来越理性，基于指数的上涨潜力每增加一个百分比，就会减少。这是一个选股者的市场。在 2021 年剩余时间里，定位良好的行业中的优质股票将比大多数指数跟踪 ETF 具有更高的上涨潜力。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 hasn't seen a pullback of more than 5% so far this year and hasn't seen an actual correction (a pullback of 10% or more) since last September, which was quickly bought back up once that down 10% mark was reached. Despite this blue-chip benchmark not exhibiting any material sell-off, over 90% of its 505 components have experienced a 10% or larger correction in 2021 thus far.<blockquote>今年到目前为止，标普500的回调幅度还没有超过 5%，自去年 9 月以来也没有出现过实际的调整（回调 10% 或更多），一旦达到 10% 的下跌关口，该指数就很快被买回。尽管这个蓝筹股基准没有表现出任何材料抛售，但迄今为止，其 505 个组件中有超过 90% 在 2021 年经历了 10% 或更大的调整。</blockquote> Rotations In &amp; Out of Growth &amp; Value<blockquote>增长与价值的进出轮换</blockquote> Investors have kept the stock market's bull drive alive by rotating in and out of growth and value sectors as portfolio's position for the reopening at the beginning of the year, then turned back to growth stocks when the yield surge began to fade mid-May. This performance deviation is clearly illustrated below with Vanguard's growth-oriented ETF (VUG Quick QuoteVUG-Free Report) in the candlesticks and its value-focused ETF (VTV Quick QuoteVTV-Free Report) represented by the orange line.<blockquote>投资者通过在年初重新开盘时轮换进出成长型和价值型板块来保持股市的牛市势头，然后在5月中旬收益率飙升开始消退时又转向成长型股票。下面烛台中的 Vanguard 以增长为导向的 ETF (VUG Quick QuoteVUG-Free Report) 和以价值为导向的 ETF (VTV Quick QuoteVTV-Free Report) 清楚地说明了这种业绩偏差。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80d0680692ab8ada950167692164017e\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"408\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Image Source: TradingView<blockquote>图片来源：TradingView</blockquote> The year-to-date performance divergence between these two stock groupings illustrates that investors &amp; traders are not buying indiscriminately. Meaning that judgment is going into every trade decision (aka stock picking), causing the market to deflate overstretched areas and reallocate into relatively cheaper spaces.<blockquote>这两个股票组合今年迄今为止的表现差异表明，投资者和交易员并没有不分青红皂白地购买。这意味着这种判断会渗透到每一个交易决策（又名选股）中，导致市场收缩过度紧张的领域并重新分配到相对便宜的领域。</blockquote> Accelerating Annualized Returns<blockquote>加速年化回报</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 has remained above an extraordinary 75% annualized return trendline for over 16 months now. Unfortunately, this rate of return isn't even close to sustainable.<blockquote>16 个月来，标普500一直保持在 75% 的年化回报率趋势线之上。不幸的是，这种回报率甚至远未达到可持续水平。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 has averaged 12% upside a year over the past 3 decades. However, the average annual growth rate has aged like fine wine. This blue-chip benchmark has demonstrated an average annualized return of nearly 15% over the past decade, and if narrowed down to just the last 5 years, those annual gains go up to over 16%.<blockquote>过去 30 年来，标普500平均每年上涨 12%。然而，年均增长率却像美酒一样陈年。这一蓝筹股基准在过去十年中的平均年化回报率接近 15%，如果缩小到过去 5 年，这些年收益将超过 16%。</blockquote> The stock market is experiencing swelling average annual gains because of the rapid acceleration of technology that continuously accelerates companies' and our economy's growth outlook. I expect to see continued annualized return acceleration over the next decade as tech makes up a growing portion of the public equity market. Nevertheless, a rolling 75% annualized return out of the S&amp;P 500 isn't viable.<blockquote>由于技术的快速发展不断加速公司和我们经济的增长前景，股市正在经历不断膨胀的年均涨幅。随着科技在公共股票市场中所占份额越来越大，我预计未来十年年化回报率将继续加速。然而，标普500滚动 75% 的年化回报率是不可行的。</blockquote> There may be too much sideline capital (a record 5.5 trillion in money market funds, according to Goldman Sachs (GS Quick QuoteGS-Free Report) for the market to entirely correct. Still, we are due for consolidation over the next few months, aka a rolling correction.<blockquote>可能有太多的边际资本（根据高盛（GS Quick QuoteGS-Free Report）的数据，货币市场基金达到创纪录的5.5万亿美元，市场无法完全纠正。尽管如此，我们仍将在未来几个月进行整合，也就是滚动调整。</blockquote> We are now entering a pivotal point in this maturing market cycle. Q2 earnings season has been tremendous thus far, with earnings soaring 105% on sales up over 22% from a year ago. 91% of the reported companies beating EPS estimates, and over 86% beat top-line projections. The richly valued tech sector has demonstrated awe-inspiring Q2 results, with 100% of them exceeding EPS estimates and over 96% beating on revenues, which seemingly justified frothy valuations in the space.<blockquote>我们现在正进入这个成熟市场周期的关键点。到目前为止，第二季度财报季表现非常出色，盈利飙升 105%，销售额同比增长 22% 以上。91% 的报告公司超出了每股收益预期，超过 86% 的公司超出了营收预测。估值极高的科技行业第二季度业绩令人敬畏，其中 100% 的业绩超出了每股收益预期，超过 96% 的业绩超出了收入预期，这似乎证明了该领域的泡沫估值是合理的。</blockquote> However, analysts are projecting peak earnings growth to be in the rear-view mirror as Q2 earnings season wraps up, and at these rich multiples, valuation compression may be in order. Even with these exceptional quarterly reports and growing full-year estimates, we have seen an undue level of profit-pulling and defensive market positioning. The resurging COVID fears and anticipated shift in monetary policy also weigh on bullish sentiment.<blockquote>然而，分析师预计，随着第二季度财报季的结束，盈利增长峰值将成为过去，在这些丰富的市盈率下，估值可能会压缩。即使有这些出色的季度报告和不断增长的全年预期，我们也看到了过度的利润拉动和防御性市场定位。新冠疫情担忧的死灰复燃和货币政策的预期转变也打压了看涨情绪。</blockquote> Nevertheless, the enormous amount of cash on the bench is still being put to work, with every marginal dip being bought right back up. The national consumer savings rate in the US sits sizably above the last decade's average. Americans are not only participating in the public equity market at a record rate, but they also have plenty of liquidity to keep buying their favorite stocks.<blockquote>尽管如此，板凳上的巨额现金仍在发挥作用，每一次边际下跌都会被买回。美国全国消费者储蓄率远高于过去十年的平均水平。美国人不仅以创纪录的速度参与公共股权市场，而且他们还有充足的流动性来继续购买他们喜欢的股票。</blockquote> Stocks remain the most attractive asset class, with negative real interest rates in the bond market, sky-high commodity prices, highly volatile crypto prices, and pricing pressure that most publicly traded companies have been able to easily transfer to their end-markets (illustrated by Q2 margin results).<blockquote>股票仍然是最具吸引力的资产类别，债券市场的负实际利率、天价商品价格、高度波动的加密货币价格以及大多数上市公司能够轻松转移到终端市场的定价压力（第二季度利润率结果说明）。</blockquote> I expect to see a rolling correction, reflected by a consolidating stock market, instead of this 10%+ correction that analysts have been postulating. Range-bound indexes(less than 10% swings) for some time (month or two) would have the same valuation compressing effect as an all-out correction because earnings would be growing while prices remain muted, leading to shrinking P/E multiples (aka rolling correction).<blockquote>我预计会看到股市盘整所反映的滚动调整，而不是分析师一直假设的 10% 以上的调整。在一段时间（一两个月）内（波动小于 10%）的区间指数（波动小于 10%）会产生与全面修正相同的估值压缩效果，因为收益会增长，而价格保持低迷，导致市盈率缩小（又名滚动修正）。</blockquote> I foresee a sideways broader market trade until the Delta-variant is no longer a global concern. I remain bullish on stocks for the remaining 5 months of 2021 and am confident that the S&amp;P 500 will close out the year higher than it is trading at today.<blockquote>我预计市场交易将横盘整理，直到Delta变体不再是全球关注的问题。在2021年剩余的5个月里，我仍然看好股市，并相信标普500将以高于今天的交易价格结束这一年。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zacks.com/commentary/1773639/whats-next-for-the-sp-500-10-pullback-or-rolling-correction?&art_rec=home-home-investment_ideas_stocks-ID09-txt-1278004\">zacks</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zacks.com/commentary/1773639/whats-next-for-the-sp-500-10-pullback-or-rolling-correction?&art_rec=home-home-investment_ideas_stocks-ID09-txt-1278004","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121866583","content_text":"The market has become increasingly rational as this 16-month bull market matures, and index-based upside potential dwindles every additional percentage they rally. This is a stock picker's market. Quality stocks in well-positioned sectors will have much higher upside potential than most index-tracking ETFs for the remainder of 2021.\nThe S&P 500 hasn't seen a pullback of more than 5% so far this year and hasn't seen an actual correction (a pullback of 10% or more) since last September, which was quickly bought back up once that down 10% mark was reached. Despite this blue-chip benchmark not exhibiting any material sell-off, over 90% of its 505 components have experienced a 10% or larger correction in 2021 thus far.\nRotations In & Out of Growth & Value\nInvestors have kept the stock market's bull drive alive by rotating in and out of growth and value sectors as portfolio's position for the reopening at the beginning of the year, then turned back to growth stocks when the yield surge began to fade mid-May. This performance deviation is clearly illustrated below with Vanguard's growth-oriented ETF (VUG Quick QuoteVUG-Free Report) in the candlesticks and its value-focused ETF (VTV Quick QuoteVTV-Free Report) represented by the orange line.\n\nImage Source: TradingView\nThe year-to-date performance divergence between these two stock groupings illustrates that investors & traders are not buying indiscriminately. Meaning that judgment is going into every trade decision (aka stock picking), causing the market to deflate overstretched areas and reallocate into relatively cheaper spaces.\nAccelerating Annualized Returns\nThe S&P 500 has remained above an extraordinary 75% annualized return trendline for over 16 months now. Unfortunately, this rate of return isn't even close to sustainable.\nThe S&P 500 has averaged 12% upside a year over the past 3 decades. However, the average annual growth rate has aged like fine wine. This blue-chip benchmark has demonstrated an average annualized return of nearly 15% over the past decade, and if narrowed down to just the last 5 years, those annual gains go up to over 16%.\nThe stock market is experiencing swelling average annual gains because of the rapid acceleration of technology that continuously accelerates companies' and our economy's growth outlook. I expect to see continued annualized return acceleration over the next decade as tech makes up a growing portion of the public equity market. Nevertheless, a rolling 75% annualized return out of the S&P 500 isn't viable.\nThere may be too much sideline capital (a record 5.5 trillion in money market funds, according to Goldman Sachs (GS Quick QuoteGS-Free Report) for the market to entirely correct. Still, we are due for consolidation over the next few months, aka a rolling correction.\nWe are now entering a pivotal point in this maturing market cycle. Q2 earnings season has been tremendous thus far, with earnings soaring 105% on sales up over 22% from a year ago. 91% of the reported companies beating EPS estimates, and over 86% beat top-line projections. The richly valued tech sector has demonstrated awe-inspiring Q2 results, with 100% of them exceeding EPS estimates and over 96% beating on revenues, which seemingly justified frothy valuations in the space.\nHowever, analysts are projecting peak earnings growth to be in the rear-view mirror as Q2 earnings season wraps up, and at these rich multiples, valuation compression may be in order. Even with these exceptional quarterly reports and growing full-year estimates, we have seen an undue level of profit-pulling and defensive market positioning. The resurging COVID fears and anticipated shift in monetary policy also weigh on bullish sentiment.\nNevertheless, the enormous amount of cash on the bench is still being put to work, with every marginal dip being bought right back up. The national consumer savings rate in the US sits sizably above the last decade's average. Americans are not only participating in the public equity market at a record rate, but they also have plenty of liquidity to keep buying their favorite stocks.\nStocks remain the most attractive asset class, with negative real interest rates in the bond market, sky-high commodity prices, highly volatile crypto prices, and pricing pressure that most publicly traded companies have been able to easily transfer to their end-markets (illustrated by Q2 margin results).\nI expect to see a rolling correction, reflected by a consolidating stock market, instead of this 10%+ correction that analysts have been postulating. Range-bound indexes(less than 10% swings) for some time (month or two) would have the same valuation compressing effect as an all-out correction because earnings would be growing while prices remain muted, leading to shrinking P/E multiples (aka rolling correction).\nI foresee a sideways broader market trade until the Delta-variant is no longer a global concern. I remain bullish on stocks for the remaining 5 months of 2021 and am confident that the S&P 500 will close out the year higher than it is trading at today.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5435602,"gmtCreate":1628160250375,"gmtModify":1635159411380,"authorId":3565233205257422,"author":{"id":3565233205257422,"idStr":"3565233205257422","authorId":3565233205257422,"name":"LouTrader","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":899380807,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"liked","text":"liked","html":"liked"},{"id":5435617,"gmtCreate":1628160324364,"gmtModify":1635159410030,"authorId":3579641974902127,"author":{"id":3579641974902127,"idStr":"3579641974902127","authorId":3579641974902127,"name":"ivy888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10358949b7fc96b011ec29ca7fd9c9a4","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":899380807,"type":1,"supId":5435602,"prevId":0,"content":"ok","text":"ok","html":"ok"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":899380905,"gmtCreate":1628159992107,"gmtModify":1633753068807,"author":{"id":"3586861020503175","authorId":"3586861020503175","name":"Aliciachua","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46077ddef996400773bd21764e81c243","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3586861020503175","idStr":"3586861020503175"},"htmlText":"👍🏻","listText":"👍🏻","text":"👍🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/899380905","repostId":1121866583,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121866583","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628158108,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1121866583?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-05 18:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What's Next For The S&P 500: 10% Pullback or Rolling Correction?<blockquote>标普500的下一步是什么：10%回调还是滚动修正？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121866583","media":"zacks","summary":"The market has become increasingly rational as this 16-month bull market matures, and index-based up","content":"The market has become increasingly rational as this 16-month bull market matures, and index-based upside potential dwindles every additional percentage they rally. This is a stock picker's market. Quality stocks in well-positioned sectors will have much higher upside potential than most index-tracking ETFs for the remainder of 2021.<blockquote>随着这16个月的牛市的成熟，市场变得越来越理性，基于指数的上涨潜力每增加一个百分比，就会减少。这是一个选股者的市场。在 2021 年剩余时间里，定位良好的行业中的优质股票将比大多数指数跟踪 ETF 具有更高的上涨潜力。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 hasn't seen a pullback of more than 5% so far this year and hasn't seen an actual correction (a pullback of 10% or more) since last September, which was quickly bought back up once that down 10% mark was reached. Despite this blue-chip benchmark not exhibiting any material sell-off, over 90% of its 505 components have experienced a 10% or larger correction in 2021 thus far.<blockquote>今年到目前为止，标普500的回调幅度还没有超过 5%，自去年 9 月以来也没有出现过实际的调整（回调 10% 或更多），一旦达到 10% 的下跌关口，该指数就很快被买回。尽管这个蓝筹股基准没有表现出任何材料抛售，但迄今为止，其 505 个组件中有超过 90% 在 2021 年经历了 10% 或更大的调整。</blockquote> Rotations In &amp; Out of Growth &amp; Value<blockquote>增长与价值的进出轮换</blockquote> Investors have kept the stock market's bull drive alive by rotating in and out of growth and value sectors as portfolio's position for the reopening at the beginning of the year, then turned back to growth stocks when the yield surge began to fade mid-May. This performance deviation is clearly illustrated below with Vanguard's growth-oriented ETF (VUG Quick QuoteVUG-Free Report) in the candlesticks and its value-focused ETF (VTV Quick QuoteVTV-Free Report) represented by the orange line.<blockquote>投资者通过在年初重新开盘时轮换进出成长型和价值型板块来保持股市的牛市势头，然后在5月中旬收益率飙升开始消退时又转向成长型股票。下面烛台中的 Vanguard 以增长为导向的 ETF (VUG Quick QuoteVUG-Free Report) 和以价值为导向的 ETF (VTV Quick QuoteVTV-Free Report) 清楚地说明了这种业绩偏差。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80d0680692ab8ada950167692164017e\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"408\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Image Source: TradingView<blockquote>图片来源：TradingView</blockquote> The year-to-date performance divergence between these two stock groupings illustrates that investors &amp; traders are not buying indiscriminately. Meaning that judgment is going into every trade decision (aka stock picking), causing the market to deflate overstretched areas and reallocate into relatively cheaper spaces.<blockquote>这两个股票组合今年迄今为止的表现差异表明，投资者和交易员并没有不分青红皂白地购买。这意味着这种判断会渗透到每一个交易决策（又名选股）中，导致市场收缩过度紧张的领域并重新分配到相对便宜的领域。</blockquote> Accelerating Annualized Returns<blockquote>加速年化回报</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 has remained above an extraordinary 75% annualized return trendline for over 16 months now. Unfortunately, this rate of return isn't even close to sustainable.<blockquote>16 个月来，标普500一直保持在 75% 的年化回报率趋势线之上。不幸的是，这种回报率甚至远未达到可持续水平。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 has averaged 12% upside a year over the past 3 decades. However, the average annual growth rate has aged like fine wine. This blue-chip benchmark has demonstrated an average annualized return of nearly 15% over the past decade, and if narrowed down to just the last 5 years, those annual gains go up to over 16%.<blockquote>过去 30 年来，标普500平均每年上涨 12%。然而，年均增长率却像美酒一样陈年。这一蓝筹股基准在过去十年中的平均年化回报率接近 15%，如果缩小到过去 5 年，这些年收益将超过 16%。</blockquote> The stock market is experiencing swelling average annual gains because of the rapid acceleration of technology that continuously accelerates companies' and our economy's growth outlook. I expect to see continued annualized return acceleration over the next decade as tech makes up a growing portion of the public equity market. Nevertheless, a rolling 75% annualized return out of the S&amp;P 500 isn't viable.<blockquote>由于技术的快速发展不断加速公司和我们经济的增长前景，股市正在经历不断膨胀的年均涨幅。随着科技在公共股票市场中所占份额越来越大，我预计未来十年年化回报率将继续加速。然而，标普500滚动 75% 的年化回报率是不可行的。</blockquote> There may be too much sideline capital (a record 5.5 trillion in money market funds, according to Goldman Sachs (GS Quick QuoteGS-Free Report) for the market to entirely correct. Still, we are due for consolidation over the next few months, aka a rolling correction.<blockquote>可能有太多的边际资本（根据高盛（GS Quick QuoteGS-Free Report）的数据，货币市场基金达到创纪录的5.5万亿美元，市场无法完全纠正。尽管如此，我们仍将在未来几个月进行整合，也就是滚动调整。</blockquote> We are now entering a pivotal point in this maturing market cycle. Q2 earnings season has been tremendous thus far, with earnings soaring 105% on sales up over 22% from a year ago. 91% of the reported companies beating EPS estimates, and over 86% beat top-line projections. The richly valued tech sector has demonstrated awe-inspiring Q2 results, with 100% of them exceeding EPS estimates and over 96% beating on revenues, which seemingly justified frothy valuations in the space.<blockquote>我们现在正进入这个成熟市场周期的关键点。到目前为止，第二季度财报季表现非常出色，盈利飙升 105%，销售额同比增长 22% 以上。91% 的报告公司超出了每股收益预期，超过 86% 的公司超出了营收预测。估值极高的科技行业第二季度业绩令人敬畏，其中 100% 的业绩超出了每股收益预期，超过 96% 的业绩超出了收入预期，这似乎证明了该领域的泡沫估值是合理的。</blockquote> However, analysts are projecting peak earnings growth to be in the rear-view mirror as Q2 earnings season wraps up, and at these rich multiples, valuation compression may be in order. Even with these exceptional quarterly reports and growing full-year estimates, we have seen an undue level of profit-pulling and defensive market positioning. The resurging COVID fears and anticipated shift in monetary policy also weigh on bullish sentiment.<blockquote>然而，分析师预计，随着第二季度财报季的结束，盈利增长峰值将成为过去，在这些丰富的市盈率下，估值可能会压缩。即使有这些出色的季度报告和不断增长的全年预期，我们也看到了过度的利润拉动和防御性市场定位。新冠疫情担忧的死灰复燃和货币政策的预期转变也打压了看涨情绪。</blockquote> Nevertheless, the enormous amount of cash on the bench is still being put to work, with every marginal dip being bought right back up. The national consumer savings rate in the US sits sizably above the last decade's average. Americans are not only participating in the public equity market at a record rate, but they also have plenty of liquidity to keep buying their favorite stocks.<blockquote>尽管如此，板凳上的巨额现金仍在发挥作用，每一次边际下跌都会被买回。美国全国消费者储蓄率远高于过去十年的平均水平。美国人不仅以创纪录的速度参与公共股权市场，而且他们还有充足的流动性来继续购买他们喜欢的股票。</blockquote> Stocks remain the most attractive asset class, with negative real interest rates in the bond market, sky-high commodity prices, highly volatile crypto prices, and pricing pressure that most publicly traded companies have been able to easily transfer to their end-markets (illustrated by Q2 margin results).<blockquote>股票仍然是最具吸引力的资产类别，债券市场的负实际利率、天价商品价格、高度波动的加密货币价格以及大多数上市公司能够轻松转移到终端市场的定价压力（第二季度利润率结果说明）。</blockquote> I expect to see a rolling correction, reflected by a consolidating stock market, instead of this 10%+ correction that analysts have been postulating. Range-bound indexes(less than 10% swings) for some time (month or two) would have the same valuation compressing effect as an all-out correction because earnings would be growing while prices remain muted, leading to shrinking P/E multiples (aka rolling correction).<blockquote>我预计会看到股市盘整所反映的滚动调整，而不是分析师一直假设的 10% 以上的调整。在一段时间（一两个月）内（波动小于 10%）的区间指数（波动小于 10%）会产生与全面修正相同的估值压缩效果，因为收益会增长，而价格保持低迷，导致市盈率缩小（又名滚动修正）。</blockquote> I foresee a sideways broader market trade until the Delta-variant is no longer a global concern. I remain bullish on stocks for the remaining 5 months of 2021 and am confident that the S&amp;P 500 will close out the year higher than it is trading at today.<blockquote>我预计市场交易将横盘整理，直到Delta变体不再是全球关注的问题。在2021年剩余的5个月里，我仍然看好股市，并相信标普500将以高于今天的交易价格结束这一年。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What's Next For The S&P 500: 10% Pullback or Rolling Correction?<blockquote>标普500的下一步是什么：10%回调还是滚动修正？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat's Next For The S&P 500: 10% Pullback or Rolling Correction?<blockquote>标普500的下一步是什么：10%回调还是滚动修正？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzacks2021-08-05 18:08\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe market has become increasingly rational as this 16-month bull market matures, and index-based upside potential dwindles every additional percentage they rally. This is a stock picker's market. Quality stocks in well-positioned sectors will have much higher upside potential than most index-tracking ETFs for the remainder of 2021.<blockquote>随着这16个月的牛市的成熟，市场变得越来越理性，基于指数的上涨潜力每增加一个百分比，就会减少。这是一个选股者的市场。在 2021 年剩余时间里，定位良好的行业中的优质股票将比大多数指数跟踪 ETF 具有更高的上涨潜力。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 hasn't seen a pullback of more than 5% so far this year and hasn't seen an actual correction (a pullback of 10% or more) since last September, which was quickly bought back up once that down 10% mark was reached. Despite this blue-chip benchmark not exhibiting any material sell-off, over 90% of its 505 components have experienced a 10% or larger correction in 2021 thus far.<blockquote>今年到目前为止，标普500的回调幅度还没有超过 5%，自去年 9 月以来也没有出现过实际的调整（回调 10% 或更多），一旦达到 10% 的下跌关口，该指数就很快被买回。尽管这个蓝筹股基准没有表现出任何材料抛售，但迄今为止，其 505 个组件中有超过 90% 在 2021 年经历了 10% 或更大的调整。</blockquote> Rotations In &amp; Out of Growth &amp; Value<blockquote>增长与价值的进出轮换</blockquote> Investors have kept the stock market's bull drive alive by rotating in and out of growth and value sectors as portfolio's position for the reopening at the beginning of the year, then turned back to growth stocks when the yield surge began to fade mid-May. This performance deviation is clearly illustrated below with Vanguard's growth-oriented ETF (VUG Quick QuoteVUG-Free Report) in the candlesticks and its value-focused ETF (VTV Quick QuoteVTV-Free Report) represented by the orange line.<blockquote>投资者通过在年初重新开盘时轮换进出成长型和价值型板块来保持股市的牛市势头，然后在5月中旬收益率飙升开始消退时又转向成长型股票。下面烛台中的 Vanguard 以增长为导向的 ETF (VUG Quick QuoteVUG-Free Report) 和以价值为导向的 ETF (VTV Quick QuoteVTV-Free Report) 清楚地说明了这种业绩偏差。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80d0680692ab8ada950167692164017e\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"408\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Image Source: TradingView<blockquote>图片来源：TradingView</blockquote> The year-to-date performance divergence between these two stock groupings illustrates that investors &amp; traders are not buying indiscriminately. Meaning that judgment is going into every trade decision (aka stock picking), causing the market to deflate overstretched areas and reallocate into relatively cheaper spaces.<blockquote>这两个股票组合今年迄今为止的表现差异表明，投资者和交易员并没有不分青红皂白地购买。这意味着这种判断会渗透到每一个交易决策（又名选股）中，导致市场收缩过度紧张的领域并重新分配到相对便宜的领域。</blockquote> Accelerating Annualized Returns<blockquote>加速年化回报</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 has remained above an extraordinary 75% annualized return trendline for over 16 months now. Unfortunately, this rate of return isn't even close to sustainable.<blockquote>16 个月来，标普500一直保持在 75% 的年化回报率趋势线之上。不幸的是，这种回报率甚至远未达到可持续水平。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 has averaged 12% upside a year over the past 3 decades. However, the average annual growth rate has aged like fine wine. This blue-chip benchmark has demonstrated an average annualized return of nearly 15% over the past decade, and if narrowed down to just the last 5 years, those annual gains go up to over 16%.<blockquote>过去 30 年来，标普500平均每年上涨 12%。然而，年均增长率却像美酒一样陈年。这一蓝筹股基准在过去十年中的平均年化回报率接近 15%，如果缩小到过去 5 年，这些年收益将超过 16%。</blockquote> The stock market is experiencing swelling average annual gains because of the rapid acceleration of technology that continuously accelerates companies' and our economy's growth outlook. I expect to see continued annualized return acceleration over the next decade as tech makes up a growing portion of the public equity market. Nevertheless, a rolling 75% annualized return out of the S&amp;P 500 isn't viable.<blockquote>由于技术的快速发展不断加速公司和我们经济的增长前景，股市正在经历不断膨胀的年均涨幅。随着科技在公共股票市场中所占份额越来越大，我预计未来十年年化回报率将继续加速。然而，标普500滚动 75% 的年化回报率是不可行的。</blockquote> There may be too much sideline capital (a record 5.5 trillion in money market funds, according to Goldman Sachs (GS Quick QuoteGS-Free Report) for the market to entirely correct. Still, we are due for consolidation over the next few months, aka a rolling correction.<blockquote>可能有太多的边际资本（根据高盛（GS Quick QuoteGS-Free Report）的数据，货币市场基金达到创纪录的5.5万亿美元，市场无法完全纠正。尽管如此，我们仍将在未来几个月进行整合，也就是滚动调整。</blockquote> We are now entering a pivotal point in this maturing market cycle. Q2 earnings season has been tremendous thus far, with earnings soaring 105% on sales up over 22% from a year ago. 91% of the reported companies beating EPS estimates, and over 86% beat top-line projections. The richly valued tech sector has demonstrated awe-inspiring Q2 results, with 100% of them exceeding EPS estimates and over 96% beating on revenues, which seemingly justified frothy valuations in the space.<blockquote>我们现在正进入这个成熟市场周期的关键点。到目前为止，第二季度财报季表现非常出色，盈利飙升 105%，销售额同比增长 22% 以上。91% 的报告公司超出了每股收益预期，超过 86% 的公司超出了营收预测。估值极高的科技行业第二季度业绩令人敬畏，其中 100% 的业绩超出了每股收益预期，超过 96% 的业绩超出了收入预期，这似乎证明了该领域的泡沫估值是合理的。</blockquote> However, analysts are projecting peak earnings growth to be in the rear-view mirror as Q2 earnings season wraps up, and at these rich multiples, valuation compression may be in order. Even with these exceptional quarterly reports and growing full-year estimates, we have seen an undue level of profit-pulling and defensive market positioning. The resurging COVID fears and anticipated shift in monetary policy also weigh on bullish sentiment.<blockquote>然而，分析师预计，随着第二季度财报季的结束，盈利增长峰值将成为过去，在这些丰富的市盈率下，估值可能会压缩。即使有这些出色的季度报告和不断增长的全年预期，我们也看到了过度的利润拉动和防御性市场定位。新冠疫情担忧的死灰复燃和货币政策的预期转变也打压了看涨情绪。</blockquote> Nevertheless, the enormous amount of cash on the bench is still being put to work, with every marginal dip being bought right back up. The national consumer savings rate in the US sits sizably above the last decade's average. Americans are not only participating in the public equity market at a record rate, but they also have plenty of liquidity to keep buying their favorite stocks.<blockquote>尽管如此，板凳上的巨额现金仍在发挥作用，每一次边际下跌都会被买回。美国全国消费者储蓄率远高于过去十年的平均水平。美国人不仅以创纪录的速度参与公共股权市场，而且他们还有充足的流动性来继续购买他们喜欢的股票。</blockquote> Stocks remain the most attractive asset class, with negative real interest rates in the bond market, sky-high commodity prices, highly volatile crypto prices, and pricing pressure that most publicly traded companies have been able to easily transfer to their end-markets (illustrated by Q2 margin results).<blockquote>股票仍然是最具吸引力的资产类别，债券市场的负实际利率、天价商品价格、高度波动的加密货币价格以及大多数上市公司能够轻松转移到终端市场的定价压力（第二季度利润率结果说明）。</blockquote> I expect to see a rolling correction, reflected by a consolidating stock market, instead of this 10%+ correction that analysts have been postulating. Range-bound indexes(less than 10% swings) for some time (month or two) would have the same valuation compressing effect as an all-out correction because earnings would be growing while prices remain muted, leading to shrinking P/E multiples (aka rolling correction).<blockquote>我预计会看到股市盘整所反映的滚动调整，而不是分析师一直假设的 10% 以上的调整。在一段时间（一两个月）内（波动小于 10%）的区间指数（波动小于 10%）会产生与全面修正相同的估值压缩效果，因为收益会增长，而价格保持低迷，导致市盈率缩小（又名滚动修正）。</blockquote> I foresee a sideways broader market trade until the Delta-variant is no longer a global concern. I remain bullish on stocks for the remaining 5 months of 2021 and am confident that the S&amp;P 500 will close out the year higher than it is trading at today.<blockquote>我预计市场交易将横盘整理，直到Delta变体不再是全球关注的问题。在2021年剩余的5个月里，我仍然看好股市，并相信标普500将以高于今天的交易价格结束这一年。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zacks.com/commentary/1773639/whats-next-for-the-sp-500-10-pullback-or-rolling-correction?&art_rec=home-home-investment_ideas_stocks-ID09-txt-1278004\">zacks</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zacks.com/commentary/1773639/whats-next-for-the-sp-500-10-pullback-or-rolling-correction?&art_rec=home-home-investment_ideas_stocks-ID09-txt-1278004","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121866583","content_text":"The market has become increasingly rational as this 16-month bull market matures, and index-based upside potential dwindles every additional percentage they rally. This is a stock picker's market. Quality stocks in well-positioned sectors will have much higher upside potential than most index-tracking ETFs for the remainder of 2021.\nThe S&P 500 hasn't seen a pullback of more than 5% so far this year and hasn't seen an actual correction (a pullback of 10% or more) since last September, which was quickly bought back up once that down 10% mark was reached. Despite this blue-chip benchmark not exhibiting any material sell-off, over 90% of its 505 components have experienced a 10% or larger correction in 2021 thus far.\nRotations In & Out of Growth & Value\nInvestors have kept the stock market's bull drive alive by rotating in and out of growth and value sectors as portfolio's position for the reopening at the beginning of the year, then turned back to growth stocks when the yield surge began to fade mid-May. This performance deviation is clearly illustrated below with Vanguard's growth-oriented ETF (VUG Quick QuoteVUG-Free Report) in the candlesticks and its value-focused ETF (VTV Quick QuoteVTV-Free Report) represented by the orange line.\n\nImage Source: TradingView\nThe year-to-date performance divergence between these two stock groupings illustrates that investors & traders are not buying indiscriminately. Meaning that judgment is going into every trade decision (aka stock picking), causing the market to deflate overstretched areas and reallocate into relatively cheaper spaces.\nAccelerating Annualized Returns\nThe S&P 500 has remained above an extraordinary 75% annualized return trendline for over 16 months now. Unfortunately, this rate of return isn't even close to sustainable.\nThe S&P 500 has averaged 12% upside a year over the past 3 decades. However, the average annual growth rate has aged like fine wine. This blue-chip benchmark has demonstrated an average annualized return of nearly 15% over the past decade, and if narrowed down to just the last 5 years, those annual gains go up to over 16%.\nThe stock market is experiencing swelling average annual gains because of the rapid acceleration of technology that continuously accelerates companies' and our economy's growth outlook. I expect to see continued annualized return acceleration over the next decade as tech makes up a growing portion of the public equity market. Nevertheless, a rolling 75% annualized return out of the S&P 500 isn't viable.\nThere may be too much sideline capital (a record 5.5 trillion in money market funds, according to Goldman Sachs (GS Quick QuoteGS-Free Report) for the market to entirely correct. Still, we are due for consolidation over the next few months, aka a rolling correction.\nWe are now entering a pivotal point in this maturing market cycle. Q2 earnings season has been tremendous thus far, with earnings soaring 105% on sales up over 22% from a year ago. 91% of the reported companies beating EPS estimates, and over 86% beat top-line projections. The richly valued tech sector has demonstrated awe-inspiring Q2 results, with 100% of them exceeding EPS estimates and over 96% beating on revenues, which seemingly justified frothy valuations in the space.\nHowever, analysts are projecting peak earnings growth to be in the rear-view mirror as Q2 earnings season wraps up, and at these rich multiples, valuation compression may be in order. Even with these exceptional quarterly reports and growing full-year estimates, we have seen an undue level of profit-pulling and defensive market positioning. The resurging COVID fears and anticipated shift in monetary policy also weigh on bullish sentiment.\nNevertheless, the enormous amount of cash on the bench is still being put to work, with every marginal dip being bought right back up. The national consumer savings rate in the US sits sizably above the last decade's average. Americans are not only participating in the public equity market at a record rate, but they also have plenty of liquidity to keep buying their favorite stocks.\nStocks remain the most attractive asset class, with negative real interest rates in the bond market, sky-high commodity prices, highly volatile crypto prices, and pricing pressure that most publicly traded companies have been able to easily transfer to their end-markets (illustrated by Q2 margin results).\nI expect to see a rolling correction, reflected by a consolidating stock market, instead of this 10%+ correction that analysts have been postulating. Range-bound indexes(less than 10% swings) for some time (month or two) would have the same valuation compressing effect as an all-out correction because earnings would be growing while prices remain muted, leading to shrinking P/E multiples (aka rolling correction).\nI foresee a sideways broader market trade until the Delta-variant is no longer a global concern. I remain bullish on stocks for the remaining 5 months of 2021 and am confident that the S&P 500 will close out the year higher than it is trading at today.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":899314184,"gmtCreate":1628159815549,"gmtModify":1633753069845,"author":{"id":"3573107359557183","authorId":"3573107359557183","name":"3a4ebe3e","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3573107359557183","idStr":"3573107359557183"},"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/899314184","repostId":1121866583,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121866583","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628158108,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1121866583?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-05 18:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What's Next For The S&P 500: 10% Pullback or Rolling Correction?<blockquote>标普500的下一步是什么：10%回调还是滚动修正？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121866583","media":"zacks","summary":"The market has become increasingly rational as this 16-month bull market matures, and index-based up","content":"The market has become increasingly rational as this 16-month bull market matures, and index-based upside potential dwindles every additional percentage they rally. This is a stock picker's market. Quality stocks in well-positioned sectors will have much higher upside potential than most index-tracking ETFs for the remainder of 2021.<blockquote>随着这16个月的牛市的成熟，市场变得越来越理性，基于指数的上涨潜力每增加一个百分比，就会减少。这是一个选股者的市场。在 2021 年剩余时间里，定位良好的行业中的优质股票将比大多数指数跟踪 ETF 具有更高的上涨潜力。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 hasn't seen a pullback of more than 5% so far this year and hasn't seen an actual correction (a pullback of 10% or more) since last September, which was quickly bought back up once that down 10% mark was reached. Despite this blue-chip benchmark not exhibiting any material sell-off, over 90% of its 505 components have experienced a 10% or larger correction in 2021 thus far.<blockquote>今年到目前为止，标普500的回调幅度还没有超过 5%，自去年 9 月以来也没有出现过实际的调整（回调 10% 或更多），一旦达到 10% 的下跌关口，该指数就很快被买回。尽管这个蓝筹股基准没有表现出任何材料抛售，但迄今为止，其 505 个组件中有超过 90% 在 2021 年经历了 10% 或更大的调整。</blockquote> Rotations In &amp; Out of Growth &amp; Value<blockquote>增长与价值的进出轮换</blockquote> Investors have kept the stock market's bull drive alive by rotating in and out of growth and value sectors as portfolio's position for the reopening at the beginning of the year, then turned back to growth stocks when the yield surge began to fade mid-May. This performance deviation is clearly illustrated below with Vanguard's growth-oriented ETF (VUG Quick QuoteVUG-Free Report) in the candlesticks and its value-focused ETF (VTV Quick QuoteVTV-Free Report) represented by the orange line.<blockquote>投资者通过在年初重新开盘时轮换进出成长型和价值型板块来保持股市的牛市势头，然后在5月中旬收益率飙升开始消退时又转向成长型股票。下面烛台中的 Vanguard 以增长为导向的 ETF (VUG Quick QuoteVUG-Free Report) 和以价值为导向的 ETF (VTV Quick QuoteVTV-Free Report) 清楚地说明了这种业绩偏差。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80d0680692ab8ada950167692164017e\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"408\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Image Source: TradingView<blockquote>图片来源：TradingView</blockquote> The year-to-date performance divergence between these two stock groupings illustrates that investors &amp; traders are not buying indiscriminately. Meaning that judgment is going into every trade decision (aka stock picking), causing the market to deflate overstretched areas and reallocate into relatively cheaper spaces.<blockquote>这两个股票组合今年迄今为止的表现差异表明，投资者和交易员并没有不分青红皂白地购买。这意味着这种判断会渗透到每一个交易决策（又名选股）中，导致市场收缩过度紧张的领域并重新分配到相对便宜的领域。</blockquote> Accelerating Annualized Returns<blockquote>加速年化回报</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 has remained above an extraordinary 75% annualized return trendline for over 16 months now. Unfortunately, this rate of return isn't even close to sustainable.<blockquote>16 个月来，标普500一直保持在 75% 的年化回报率趋势线之上。不幸的是，这种回报率甚至远未达到可持续水平。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 has averaged 12% upside a year over the past 3 decades. However, the average annual growth rate has aged like fine wine. This blue-chip benchmark has demonstrated an average annualized return of nearly 15% over the past decade, and if narrowed down to just the last 5 years, those annual gains go up to over 16%.<blockquote>过去 30 年来，标普500平均每年上涨 12%。然而，年均增长率却像美酒一样陈年。这一蓝筹股基准在过去十年中的平均年化回报率接近 15%，如果缩小到过去 5 年，这些年收益将超过 16%。</blockquote> The stock market is experiencing swelling average annual gains because of the rapid acceleration of technology that continuously accelerates companies' and our economy's growth outlook. I expect to see continued annualized return acceleration over the next decade as tech makes up a growing portion of the public equity market. Nevertheless, a rolling 75% annualized return out of the S&amp;P 500 isn't viable.<blockquote>由于技术的快速发展不断加速公司和我们经济的增长前景，股市正在经历不断膨胀的年均涨幅。随着科技在公共股票市场中所占份额越来越大，我预计未来十年年化回报率将继续加速。然而，标普500滚动 75% 的年化回报率是不可行的。</blockquote> There may be too much sideline capital (a record 5.5 trillion in money market funds, according to Goldman Sachs (GS Quick QuoteGS-Free Report) for the market to entirely correct. Still, we are due for consolidation over the next few months, aka a rolling correction.<blockquote>可能有太多的边际资本（根据高盛（GS Quick QuoteGS-Free Report）的数据，货币市场基金达到创纪录的5.5万亿美元，市场无法完全纠正。尽管如此，我们仍将在未来几个月进行整合，也就是滚动调整。</blockquote> We are now entering a pivotal point in this maturing market cycle. Q2 earnings season has been tremendous thus far, with earnings soaring 105% on sales up over 22% from a year ago. 91% of the reported companies beating EPS estimates, and over 86% beat top-line projections. The richly valued tech sector has demonstrated awe-inspiring Q2 results, with 100% of them exceeding EPS estimates and over 96% beating on revenues, which seemingly justified frothy valuations in the space.<blockquote>我们现在正进入这个成熟市场周期的关键点。到目前为止，第二季度财报季表现非常出色，盈利飙升 105%，销售额同比增长 22% 以上。91% 的报告公司超出了每股收益预期，超过 86% 的公司超出了营收预测。估值极高的科技行业第二季度业绩令人敬畏，其中 100% 的业绩超出了每股收益预期，超过 96% 的业绩超出了收入预期，这似乎证明了该领域的泡沫估值是合理的。</blockquote> However, analysts are projecting peak earnings growth to be in the rear-view mirror as Q2 earnings season wraps up, and at these rich multiples, valuation compression may be in order. Even with these exceptional quarterly reports and growing full-year estimates, we have seen an undue level of profit-pulling and defensive market positioning. The resurging COVID fears and anticipated shift in monetary policy also weigh on bullish sentiment.<blockquote>然而，分析师预计，随着第二季度财报季的结束，盈利增长峰值将成为过去，在这些丰富的市盈率下，估值可能会压缩。即使有这些出色的季度报告和不断增长的全年预期，我们也看到了过度的利润拉动和防御性市场定位。新冠疫情担忧的死灰复燃和货币政策的预期转变也打压了看涨情绪。</blockquote> Nevertheless, the enormous amount of cash on the bench is still being put to work, with every marginal dip being bought right back up. The national consumer savings rate in the US sits sizably above the last decade's average. Americans are not only participating in the public equity market at a record rate, but they also have plenty of liquidity to keep buying their favorite stocks.<blockquote>尽管如此，板凳上的巨额现金仍在发挥作用，每一次边际下跌都会被买回。美国全国消费者储蓄率远高于过去十年的平均水平。美国人不仅以创纪录的速度参与公共股权市场，而且他们还有充足的流动性来继续购买他们喜欢的股票。</blockquote> Stocks remain the most attractive asset class, with negative real interest rates in the bond market, sky-high commodity prices, highly volatile crypto prices, and pricing pressure that most publicly traded companies have been able to easily transfer to their end-markets (illustrated by Q2 margin results).<blockquote>股票仍然是最具吸引力的资产类别，债券市场的负实际利率、天价商品价格、高度波动的加密货币价格以及大多数上市公司能够轻松转移到终端市场的定价压力（第二季度利润率结果说明）。</blockquote> I expect to see a rolling correction, reflected by a consolidating stock market, instead of this 10%+ correction that analysts have been postulating. Range-bound indexes(less than 10% swings) for some time (month or two) would have the same valuation compressing effect as an all-out correction because earnings would be growing while prices remain muted, leading to shrinking P/E multiples (aka rolling correction).<blockquote>我预计会看到股市盘整所反映的滚动调整，而不是分析师一直假设的 10% 以上的调整。在一段时间（一两个月）内（波动小于 10%）的区间指数（波动小于 10%）会产生与全面修正相同的估值压缩效果，因为收益会增长，而价格保持低迷，导致市盈率缩小（又名滚动修正）。</blockquote> I foresee a sideways broader market trade until the Delta-variant is no longer a global concern. I remain bullish on stocks for the remaining 5 months of 2021 and am confident that the S&amp;P 500 will close out the year higher than it is trading at today.<blockquote>我预计市场交易将横盘整理，直到Delta变体不再是全球关注的问题。在2021年剩余的5个月里，我仍然看好股市，并相信标普500将以高于今天的交易价格结束这一年。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What's Next For The S&P 500: 10% Pullback or Rolling Correction?<blockquote>标普500的下一步是什么：10%回调还是滚动修正？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat's Next For The S&P 500: 10% Pullback or Rolling Correction?<blockquote>标普500的下一步是什么：10%回调还是滚动修正？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzacks2021-08-05 18:08\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe market has become increasingly rational as this 16-month bull market matures, and index-based upside potential dwindles every additional percentage they rally. This is a stock picker's market. Quality stocks in well-positioned sectors will have much higher upside potential than most index-tracking ETFs for the remainder of 2021.<blockquote>随着这16个月的牛市的成熟，市场变得越来越理性，基于指数的上涨潜力每增加一个百分比，就会减少。这是一个选股者的市场。在 2021 年剩余时间里，定位良好的行业中的优质股票将比大多数指数跟踪 ETF 具有更高的上涨潜力。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 hasn't seen a pullback of more than 5% so far this year and hasn't seen an actual correction (a pullback of 10% or more) since last September, which was quickly bought back up once that down 10% mark was reached. Despite this blue-chip benchmark not exhibiting any material sell-off, over 90% of its 505 components have experienced a 10% or larger correction in 2021 thus far.<blockquote>今年到目前为止，标普500的回调幅度还没有超过 5%，自去年 9 月以来也没有出现过实际的调整（回调 10% 或更多），一旦达到 10% 的下跌关口，该指数就很快被买回。尽管这个蓝筹股基准没有表现出任何材料抛售，但迄今为止，其 505 个组件中有超过 90% 在 2021 年经历了 10% 或更大的调整。</blockquote> Rotations In &amp; Out of Growth &amp; Value<blockquote>增长与价值的进出轮换</blockquote> Investors have kept the stock market's bull drive alive by rotating in and out of growth and value sectors as portfolio's position for the reopening at the beginning of the year, then turned back to growth stocks when the yield surge began to fade mid-May. This performance deviation is clearly illustrated below with Vanguard's growth-oriented ETF (VUG Quick QuoteVUG-Free Report) in the candlesticks and its value-focused ETF (VTV Quick QuoteVTV-Free Report) represented by the orange line.<blockquote>投资者通过在年初重新开盘时轮换进出成长型和价值型板块来保持股市的牛市势头，然后在5月中旬收益率飙升开始消退时又转向成长型股票。下面烛台中的 Vanguard 以增长为导向的 ETF (VUG Quick QuoteVUG-Free Report) 和以价值为导向的 ETF (VTV Quick QuoteVTV-Free Report) 清楚地说明了这种业绩偏差。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80d0680692ab8ada950167692164017e\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"408\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Image Source: TradingView<blockquote>图片来源：TradingView</blockquote> The year-to-date performance divergence between these two stock groupings illustrates that investors &amp; traders are not buying indiscriminately. Meaning that judgment is going into every trade decision (aka stock picking), causing the market to deflate overstretched areas and reallocate into relatively cheaper spaces.<blockquote>这两个股票组合今年迄今为止的表现差异表明，投资者和交易员并没有不分青红皂白地购买。这意味着这种判断会渗透到每一个交易决策（又名选股）中，导致市场收缩过度紧张的领域并重新分配到相对便宜的领域。</blockquote> Accelerating Annualized Returns<blockquote>加速年化回报</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 has remained above an extraordinary 75% annualized return trendline for over 16 months now. Unfortunately, this rate of return isn't even close to sustainable.<blockquote>16 个月来，标普500一直保持在 75% 的年化回报率趋势线之上。不幸的是，这种回报率甚至远未达到可持续水平。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 has averaged 12% upside a year over the past 3 decades. However, the average annual growth rate has aged like fine wine. This blue-chip benchmark has demonstrated an average annualized return of nearly 15% over the past decade, and if narrowed down to just the last 5 years, those annual gains go up to over 16%.<blockquote>过去 30 年来，标普500平均每年上涨 12%。然而，年均增长率却像美酒一样陈年。这一蓝筹股基准在过去十年中的平均年化回报率接近 15%，如果缩小到过去 5 年，这些年收益将超过 16%。</blockquote> The stock market is experiencing swelling average annual gains because of the rapid acceleration of technology that continuously accelerates companies' and our economy's growth outlook. I expect to see continued annualized return acceleration over the next decade as tech makes up a growing portion of the public equity market. Nevertheless, a rolling 75% annualized return out of the S&amp;P 500 isn't viable.<blockquote>由于技术的快速发展不断加速公司和我们经济的增长前景，股市正在经历不断膨胀的年均涨幅。随着科技在公共股票市场中所占份额越来越大，我预计未来十年年化回报率将继续加速。然而，标普500滚动 75% 的年化回报率是不可行的。</blockquote> There may be too much sideline capital (a record 5.5 trillion in money market funds, according to Goldman Sachs (GS Quick QuoteGS-Free Report) for the market to entirely correct. Still, we are due for consolidation over the next few months, aka a rolling correction.<blockquote>可能有太多的边际资本（根据高盛（GS Quick QuoteGS-Free Report）的数据，货币市场基金达到创纪录的5.5万亿美元，市场无法完全纠正。尽管如此，我们仍将在未来几个月进行整合，也就是滚动调整。</blockquote> We are now entering a pivotal point in this maturing market cycle. Q2 earnings season has been tremendous thus far, with earnings soaring 105% on sales up over 22% from a year ago. 91% of the reported companies beating EPS estimates, and over 86% beat top-line projections. The richly valued tech sector has demonstrated awe-inspiring Q2 results, with 100% of them exceeding EPS estimates and over 96% beating on revenues, which seemingly justified frothy valuations in the space.<blockquote>我们现在正进入这个成熟市场周期的关键点。到目前为止，第二季度财报季表现非常出色，盈利飙升 105%，销售额同比增长 22% 以上。91% 的报告公司超出了每股收益预期，超过 86% 的公司超出了营收预测。估值极高的科技行业第二季度业绩令人敬畏，其中 100% 的业绩超出了每股收益预期，超过 96% 的业绩超出了收入预期，这似乎证明了该领域的泡沫估值是合理的。</blockquote> However, analysts are projecting peak earnings growth to be in the rear-view mirror as Q2 earnings season wraps up, and at these rich multiples, valuation compression may be in order. Even with these exceptional quarterly reports and growing full-year estimates, we have seen an undue level of profit-pulling and defensive market positioning. The resurging COVID fears and anticipated shift in monetary policy also weigh on bullish sentiment.<blockquote>然而，分析师预计，随着第二季度财报季的结束，盈利增长峰值将成为过去，在这些丰富的市盈率下，估值可能会压缩。即使有这些出色的季度报告和不断增长的全年预期，我们也看到了过度的利润拉动和防御性市场定位。新冠疫情担忧的死灰复燃和货币政策的预期转变也打压了看涨情绪。</blockquote> Nevertheless, the enormous amount of cash on the bench is still being put to work, with every marginal dip being bought right back up. The national consumer savings rate in the US sits sizably above the last decade's average. Americans are not only participating in the public equity market at a record rate, but they also have plenty of liquidity to keep buying their favorite stocks.<blockquote>尽管如此，板凳上的巨额现金仍在发挥作用，每一次边际下跌都会被买回。美国全国消费者储蓄率远高于过去十年的平均水平。美国人不仅以创纪录的速度参与公共股权市场，而且他们还有充足的流动性来继续购买他们喜欢的股票。</blockquote> Stocks remain the most attractive asset class, with negative real interest rates in the bond market, sky-high commodity prices, highly volatile crypto prices, and pricing pressure that most publicly traded companies have been able to easily transfer to their end-markets (illustrated by Q2 margin results).<blockquote>股票仍然是最具吸引力的资产类别，债券市场的负实际利率、天价商品价格、高度波动的加密货币价格以及大多数上市公司能够轻松转移到终端市场的定价压力（第二季度利润率结果说明）。</blockquote> I expect to see a rolling correction, reflected by a consolidating stock market, instead of this 10%+ correction that analysts have been postulating. Range-bound indexes(less than 10% swings) for some time (month or two) would have the same valuation compressing effect as an all-out correction because earnings would be growing while prices remain muted, leading to shrinking P/E multiples (aka rolling correction).<blockquote>我预计会看到股市盘整所反映的滚动调整，而不是分析师一直假设的 10% 以上的调整。在一段时间（一两个月）内（波动小于 10%）的区间指数（波动小于 10%）会产生与全面修正相同的估值压缩效果，因为收益会增长，而价格保持低迷，导致市盈率缩小（又名滚动修正）。</blockquote> I foresee a sideways broader market trade until the Delta-variant is no longer a global concern. I remain bullish on stocks for the remaining 5 months of 2021 and am confident that the S&amp;P 500 will close out the year higher than it is trading at today.<blockquote>我预计市场交易将横盘整理，直到Delta变体不再是全球关注的问题。在2021年剩余的5个月里，我仍然看好股市，并相信标普500将以高于今天的交易价格结束这一年。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zacks.com/commentary/1773639/whats-next-for-the-sp-500-10-pullback-or-rolling-correction?&art_rec=home-home-investment_ideas_stocks-ID09-txt-1278004\">zacks</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zacks.com/commentary/1773639/whats-next-for-the-sp-500-10-pullback-or-rolling-correction?&art_rec=home-home-investment_ideas_stocks-ID09-txt-1278004","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121866583","content_text":"The market has become increasingly rational as this 16-month bull market matures, and index-based upside potential dwindles every additional percentage they rally. This is a stock picker's market. Quality stocks in well-positioned sectors will have much higher upside potential than most index-tracking ETFs for the remainder of 2021.\nThe S&P 500 hasn't seen a pullback of more than 5% so far this year and hasn't seen an actual correction (a pullback of 10% or more) since last September, which was quickly bought back up once that down 10% mark was reached. Despite this blue-chip benchmark not exhibiting any material sell-off, over 90% of its 505 components have experienced a 10% or larger correction in 2021 thus far.\nRotations In & Out of Growth & Value\nInvestors have kept the stock market's bull drive alive by rotating in and out of growth and value sectors as portfolio's position for the reopening at the beginning of the year, then turned back to growth stocks when the yield surge began to fade mid-May. This performance deviation is clearly illustrated below with Vanguard's growth-oriented ETF (VUG Quick QuoteVUG-Free Report) in the candlesticks and its value-focused ETF (VTV Quick QuoteVTV-Free Report) represented by the orange line.\n\nImage Source: TradingView\nThe year-to-date performance divergence between these two stock groupings illustrates that investors & traders are not buying indiscriminately. Meaning that judgment is going into every trade decision (aka stock picking), causing the market to deflate overstretched areas and reallocate into relatively cheaper spaces.\nAccelerating Annualized Returns\nThe S&P 500 has remained above an extraordinary 75% annualized return trendline for over 16 months now. Unfortunately, this rate of return isn't even close to sustainable.\nThe S&P 500 has averaged 12% upside a year over the past 3 decades. However, the average annual growth rate has aged like fine wine. This blue-chip benchmark has demonstrated an average annualized return of nearly 15% over the past decade, and if narrowed down to just the last 5 years, those annual gains go up to over 16%.\nThe stock market is experiencing swelling average annual gains because of the rapid acceleration of technology that continuously accelerates companies' and our economy's growth outlook. I expect to see continued annualized return acceleration over the next decade as tech makes up a growing portion of the public equity market. Nevertheless, a rolling 75% annualized return out of the S&P 500 isn't viable.\nThere may be too much sideline capital (a record 5.5 trillion in money market funds, according to Goldman Sachs (GS Quick QuoteGS-Free Report) for the market to entirely correct. Still, we are due for consolidation over the next few months, aka a rolling correction.\nWe are now entering a pivotal point in this maturing market cycle. Q2 earnings season has been tremendous thus far, with earnings soaring 105% on sales up over 22% from a year ago. 91% of the reported companies beating EPS estimates, and over 86% beat top-line projections. The richly valued tech sector has demonstrated awe-inspiring Q2 results, with 100% of them exceeding EPS estimates and over 96% beating on revenues, which seemingly justified frothy valuations in the space.\nHowever, analysts are projecting peak earnings growth to be in the rear-view mirror as Q2 earnings season wraps up, and at these rich multiples, valuation compression may be in order. Even with these exceptional quarterly reports and growing full-year estimates, we have seen an undue level of profit-pulling and defensive market positioning. The resurging COVID fears and anticipated shift in monetary policy also weigh on bullish sentiment.\nNevertheless, the enormous amount of cash on the bench is still being put to work, with every marginal dip being bought right back up. The national consumer savings rate in the US sits sizably above the last decade's average. Americans are not only participating in the public equity market at a record rate, but they also have plenty of liquidity to keep buying their favorite stocks.\nStocks remain the most attractive asset class, with negative real interest rates in the bond market, sky-high commodity prices, highly volatile crypto prices, and pricing pressure that most publicly traded companies have been able to easily transfer to their end-markets (illustrated by Q2 margin results).\nI expect to see a rolling correction, reflected by a consolidating stock market, instead of this 10%+ correction that analysts have been postulating. Range-bound indexes(less than 10% swings) for some time (month or two) would have the same valuation compressing effect as an all-out correction because earnings would be growing while prices remain muted, leading to shrinking P/E multiples (aka rolling correction).\nI foresee a sideways broader market trade until the Delta-variant is no longer a global concern. I remain bullish on stocks for the remaining 5 months of 2021 and am confident that the S&P 500 will close out the year higher than it is trading at today.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":899314903,"gmtCreate":1628159795402,"gmtModify":1633753070070,"author":{"id":"3575958434174944","authorId":"3575958434174944","name":"Shadotaiger","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c26a9d060fabab1c1347edbfc7329574","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3575958434174944","idStr":"3575958434174944"},"htmlText":"me me","listText":"me me","text":"me me","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/899314903","repostId":1121866583,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121866583","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628158108,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1121866583?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-05 18:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What's Next For The S&P 500: 10% Pullback or Rolling Correction?<blockquote>标普500的下一步是什么：10%回调还是滚动修正？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121866583","media":"zacks","summary":"The market has become increasingly rational as this 16-month bull market matures, and index-based up","content":"The market has become increasingly rational as this 16-month bull market matures, and index-based upside potential dwindles every additional percentage they rally. This is a stock picker's market. Quality stocks in well-positioned sectors will have much higher upside potential than most index-tracking ETFs for the remainder of 2021.<blockquote>随着这16个月的牛市的成熟，市场变得越来越理性，基于指数的上涨潜力每增加一个百分比，就会减少。这是一个选股者的市场。在 2021 年剩余时间里，定位良好的行业中的优质股票将比大多数指数跟踪 ETF 具有更高的上涨潜力。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 hasn't seen a pullback of more than 5% so far this year and hasn't seen an actual correction (a pullback of 10% or more) since last September, which was quickly bought back up once that down 10% mark was reached. Despite this blue-chip benchmark not exhibiting any material sell-off, over 90% of its 505 components have experienced a 10% or larger correction in 2021 thus far.<blockquote>今年到目前为止，标普500的回调幅度还没有超过 5%，自去年 9 月以来也没有出现过实际的调整（回调 10% 或更多），一旦达到 10% 的下跌关口，该指数就很快被买回。尽管这个蓝筹股基准没有表现出任何材料抛售，但迄今为止，其 505 个组件中有超过 90% 在 2021 年经历了 10% 或更大的调整。</blockquote> Rotations In &amp; Out of Growth &amp; Value<blockquote>增长与价值的进出轮换</blockquote> Investors have kept the stock market's bull drive alive by rotating in and out of growth and value sectors as portfolio's position for the reopening at the beginning of the year, then turned back to growth stocks when the yield surge began to fade mid-May. This performance deviation is clearly illustrated below with Vanguard's growth-oriented ETF (VUG Quick QuoteVUG-Free Report) in the candlesticks and its value-focused ETF (VTV Quick QuoteVTV-Free Report) represented by the orange line.<blockquote>投资者通过在年初重新开盘时轮换进出成长型和价值型板块来保持股市的牛市势头，然后在5月中旬收益率飙升开始消退时又转向成长型股票。下面烛台中的 Vanguard 以增长为导向的 ETF (VUG Quick QuoteVUG-Free Report) 和以价值为导向的 ETF (VTV Quick QuoteVTV-Free Report) 清楚地说明了这种业绩偏差。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80d0680692ab8ada950167692164017e\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"408\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Image Source: TradingView<blockquote>图片来源：TradingView</blockquote> The year-to-date performance divergence between these two stock groupings illustrates that investors &amp; traders are not buying indiscriminately. Meaning that judgment is going into every trade decision (aka stock picking), causing the market to deflate overstretched areas and reallocate into relatively cheaper spaces.<blockquote>这两个股票组合今年迄今为止的表现差异表明，投资者和交易员并没有不分青红皂白地购买。这意味着这种判断会渗透到每一个交易决策（又名选股）中，导致市场收缩过度紧张的领域并重新分配到相对便宜的领域。</blockquote> Accelerating Annualized Returns<blockquote>加速年化回报</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 has remained above an extraordinary 75% annualized return trendline for over 16 months now. Unfortunately, this rate of return isn't even close to sustainable.<blockquote>16 个月来，标普500一直保持在 75% 的年化回报率趋势线之上。不幸的是，这种回报率甚至远未达到可持续水平。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 has averaged 12% upside a year over the past 3 decades. However, the average annual growth rate has aged like fine wine. This blue-chip benchmark has demonstrated an average annualized return of nearly 15% over the past decade, and if narrowed down to just the last 5 years, those annual gains go up to over 16%.<blockquote>过去 30 年来，标普500平均每年上涨 12%。然而，年均增长率却像美酒一样陈年。这一蓝筹股基准在过去十年中的平均年化回报率接近 15%，如果缩小到过去 5 年，这些年收益将超过 16%。</blockquote> The stock market is experiencing swelling average annual gains because of the rapid acceleration of technology that continuously accelerates companies' and our economy's growth outlook. I expect to see continued annualized return acceleration over the next decade as tech makes up a growing portion of the public equity market. Nevertheless, a rolling 75% annualized return out of the S&amp;P 500 isn't viable.<blockquote>由于技术的快速发展不断加速公司和我们经济的增长前景，股市正在经历不断膨胀的年均涨幅。随着科技在公共股票市场中所占份额越来越大，我预计未来十年年化回报率将继续加速。然而，标普500滚动 75% 的年化回报率是不可行的。</blockquote> There may be too much sideline capital (a record 5.5 trillion in money market funds, according to Goldman Sachs (GS Quick QuoteGS-Free Report) for the market to entirely correct. Still, we are due for consolidation over the next few months, aka a rolling correction.<blockquote>可能有太多的边际资本（根据高盛（GS Quick QuoteGS-Free Report）的数据，货币市场基金达到创纪录的5.5万亿美元，市场无法完全纠正。尽管如此，我们仍将在未来几个月进行整合，也就是滚动调整。</blockquote> We are now entering a pivotal point in this maturing market cycle. Q2 earnings season has been tremendous thus far, with earnings soaring 105% on sales up over 22% from a year ago. 91% of the reported companies beating EPS estimates, and over 86% beat top-line projections. The richly valued tech sector has demonstrated awe-inspiring Q2 results, with 100% of them exceeding EPS estimates and over 96% beating on revenues, which seemingly justified frothy valuations in the space.<blockquote>我们现在正进入这个成熟市场周期的关键点。到目前为止，第二季度财报季表现非常出色，盈利飙升 105%，销售额同比增长 22% 以上。91% 的报告公司超出了每股收益预期，超过 86% 的公司超出了营收预测。估值极高的科技行业第二季度业绩令人敬畏，其中 100% 的业绩超出了每股收益预期，超过 96% 的业绩超出了收入预期，这似乎证明了该领域的泡沫估值是合理的。</blockquote> However, analysts are projecting peak earnings growth to be in the rear-view mirror as Q2 earnings season wraps up, and at these rich multiples, valuation compression may be in order. Even with these exceptional quarterly reports and growing full-year estimates, we have seen an undue level of profit-pulling and defensive market positioning. The resurging COVID fears and anticipated shift in monetary policy also weigh on bullish sentiment.<blockquote>然而，分析师预计，随着第二季度财报季的结束，盈利增长峰值将成为过去，在这些丰富的市盈率下，估值可能会压缩。即使有这些出色的季度报告和不断增长的全年预期，我们也看到了过度的利润拉动和防御性市场定位。新冠疫情担忧的死灰复燃和货币政策的预期转变也打压了看涨情绪。</blockquote> Nevertheless, the enormous amount of cash on the bench is still being put to work, with every marginal dip being bought right back up. The national consumer savings rate in the US sits sizably above the last decade's average. Americans are not only participating in the public equity market at a record rate, but they also have plenty of liquidity to keep buying their favorite stocks.<blockquote>尽管如此，板凳上的巨额现金仍在发挥作用，每一次边际下跌都会被买回。美国全国消费者储蓄率远高于过去十年的平均水平。美国人不仅以创纪录的速度参与公共股权市场，而且他们还有充足的流动性来继续购买他们喜欢的股票。</blockquote> Stocks remain the most attractive asset class, with negative real interest rates in the bond market, sky-high commodity prices, highly volatile crypto prices, and pricing pressure that most publicly traded companies have been able to easily transfer to their end-markets (illustrated by Q2 margin results).<blockquote>股票仍然是最具吸引力的资产类别，债券市场的负实际利率、天价商品价格、高度波动的加密货币价格以及大多数上市公司能够轻松转移到终端市场的定价压力（第二季度利润率结果说明）。</blockquote> I expect to see a rolling correction, reflected by a consolidating stock market, instead of this 10%+ correction that analysts have been postulating. Range-bound indexes(less than 10% swings) for some time (month or two) would have the same valuation compressing effect as an all-out correction because earnings would be growing while prices remain muted, leading to shrinking P/E multiples (aka rolling correction).<blockquote>我预计会看到股市盘整所反映的滚动调整，而不是分析师一直假设的 10% 以上的调整。在一段时间（一两个月）内（波动小于 10%）的区间指数（波动小于 10%）会产生与全面修正相同的估值压缩效果，因为收益会增长，而价格保持低迷，导致市盈率缩小（又名滚动修正）。</blockquote> I foresee a sideways broader market trade until the Delta-variant is no longer a global concern. I remain bullish on stocks for the remaining 5 months of 2021 and am confident that the S&amp;P 500 will close out the year higher than it is trading at today.<blockquote>我预计市场交易将横盘整理，直到Delta变体不再是全球关注的问题。在2021年剩余的5个月里，我仍然看好股市，并相信标普500将以高于今天的交易价格结束这一年。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What's Next For The S&P 500: 10% Pullback or Rolling Correction?<blockquote>标普500的下一步是什么：10%回调还是滚动修正？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat's Next For The S&P 500: 10% Pullback or Rolling Correction?<blockquote>标普500的下一步是什么：10%回调还是滚动修正？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzacks2021-08-05 18:08\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe market has become increasingly rational as this 16-month bull market matures, and index-based upside potential dwindles every additional percentage they rally. This is a stock picker's market. Quality stocks in well-positioned sectors will have much higher upside potential than most index-tracking ETFs for the remainder of 2021.<blockquote>随着这16个月的牛市的成熟，市场变得越来越理性，基于指数的上涨潜力每增加一个百分比，就会减少。这是一个选股者的市场。在 2021 年剩余时间里，定位良好的行业中的优质股票将比大多数指数跟踪 ETF 具有更高的上涨潜力。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 hasn't seen a pullback of more than 5% so far this year and hasn't seen an actual correction (a pullback of 10% or more) since last September, which was quickly bought back up once that down 10% mark was reached. Despite this blue-chip benchmark not exhibiting any material sell-off, over 90% of its 505 components have experienced a 10% or larger correction in 2021 thus far.<blockquote>今年到目前为止，标普500的回调幅度还没有超过 5%，自去年 9 月以来也没有出现过实际的调整（回调 10% 或更多），一旦达到 10% 的下跌关口，该指数就很快被买回。尽管这个蓝筹股基准没有表现出任何材料抛售，但迄今为止，其 505 个组件中有超过 90% 在 2021 年经历了 10% 或更大的调整。</blockquote> Rotations In &amp; Out of Growth &amp; Value<blockquote>增长与价值的进出轮换</blockquote> Investors have kept the stock market's bull drive alive by rotating in and out of growth and value sectors as portfolio's position for the reopening at the beginning of the year, then turned back to growth stocks when the yield surge began to fade mid-May. This performance deviation is clearly illustrated below with Vanguard's growth-oriented ETF (VUG Quick QuoteVUG-Free Report) in the candlesticks and its value-focused ETF (VTV Quick QuoteVTV-Free Report) represented by the orange line.<blockquote>投资者通过在年初重新开盘时轮换进出成长型和价值型板块来保持股市的牛市势头，然后在5月中旬收益率飙升开始消退时又转向成长型股票。下面烛台中的 Vanguard 以增长为导向的 ETF (VUG Quick QuoteVUG-Free Report) 和以价值为导向的 ETF (VTV Quick QuoteVTV-Free Report) 清楚地说明了这种业绩偏差。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80d0680692ab8ada950167692164017e\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"408\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Image Source: TradingView<blockquote>图片来源：TradingView</blockquote> The year-to-date performance divergence between these two stock groupings illustrates that investors &amp; traders are not buying indiscriminately. Meaning that judgment is going into every trade decision (aka stock picking), causing the market to deflate overstretched areas and reallocate into relatively cheaper spaces.<blockquote>这两个股票组合今年迄今为止的表现差异表明，投资者和交易员并没有不分青红皂白地购买。这意味着这种判断会渗透到每一个交易决策（又名选股）中，导致市场收缩过度紧张的领域并重新分配到相对便宜的领域。</blockquote> Accelerating Annualized Returns<blockquote>加速年化回报</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 has remained above an extraordinary 75% annualized return trendline for over 16 months now. Unfortunately, this rate of return isn't even close to sustainable.<blockquote>16 个月来，标普500一直保持在 75% 的年化回报率趋势线之上。不幸的是，这种回报率甚至远未达到可持续水平。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 has averaged 12% upside a year over the past 3 decades. However, the average annual growth rate has aged like fine wine. This blue-chip benchmark has demonstrated an average annualized return of nearly 15% over the past decade, and if narrowed down to just the last 5 years, those annual gains go up to over 16%.<blockquote>过去 30 年来，标普500平均每年上涨 12%。然而，年均增长率却像美酒一样陈年。这一蓝筹股基准在过去十年中的平均年化回报率接近 15%，如果缩小到过去 5 年，这些年收益将超过 16%。</blockquote> The stock market is experiencing swelling average annual gains because of the rapid acceleration of technology that continuously accelerates companies' and our economy's growth outlook. I expect to see continued annualized return acceleration over the next decade as tech makes up a growing portion of the public equity market. Nevertheless, a rolling 75% annualized return out of the S&amp;P 500 isn't viable.<blockquote>由于技术的快速发展不断加速公司和我们经济的增长前景，股市正在经历不断膨胀的年均涨幅。随着科技在公共股票市场中所占份额越来越大，我预计未来十年年化回报率将继续加速。然而，标普500滚动 75% 的年化回报率是不可行的。</blockquote> There may be too much sideline capital (a record 5.5 trillion in money market funds, according to Goldman Sachs (GS Quick QuoteGS-Free Report) for the market to entirely correct. Still, we are due for consolidation over the next few months, aka a rolling correction.<blockquote>可能有太多的边际资本（根据高盛（GS Quick QuoteGS-Free Report）的数据，货币市场基金达到创纪录的5.5万亿美元，市场无法完全纠正。尽管如此，我们仍将在未来几个月进行整合，也就是滚动调整。</blockquote> We are now entering a pivotal point in this maturing market cycle. Q2 earnings season has been tremendous thus far, with earnings soaring 105% on sales up over 22% from a year ago. 91% of the reported companies beating EPS estimates, and over 86% beat top-line projections. The richly valued tech sector has demonstrated awe-inspiring Q2 results, with 100% of them exceeding EPS estimates and over 96% beating on revenues, which seemingly justified frothy valuations in the space.<blockquote>我们现在正进入这个成熟市场周期的关键点。到目前为止，第二季度财报季表现非常出色，盈利飙升 105%，销售额同比增长 22% 以上。91% 的报告公司超出了每股收益预期，超过 86% 的公司超出了营收预测。估值极高的科技行业第二季度业绩令人敬畏，其中 100% 的业绩超出了每股收益预期，超过 96% 的业绩超出了收入预期，这似乎证明了该领域的泡沫估值是合理的。</blockquote> However, analysts are projecting peak earnings growth to be in the rear-view mirror as Q2 earnings season wraps up, and at these rich multiples, valuation compression may be in order. Even with these exceptional quarterly reports and growing full-year estimates, we have seen an undue level of profit-pulling and defensive market positioning. The resurging COVID fears and anticipated shift in monetary policy also weigh on bullish sentiment.<blockquote>然而，分析师预计，随着第二季度财报季的结束，盈利增长峰值将成为过去，在这些丰富的市盈率下，估值可能会压缩。即使有这些出色的季度报告和不断增长的全年预期，我们也看到了过度的利润拉动和防御性市场定位。新冠疫情担忧的死灰复燃和货币政策的预期转变也打压了看涨情绪。</blockquote> Nevertheless, the enormous amount of cash on the bench is still being put to work, with every marginal dip being bought right back up. The national consumer savings rate in the US sits sizably above the last decade's average. Americans are not only participating in the public equity market at a record rate, but they also have plenty of liquidity to keep buying their favorite stocks.<blockquote>尽管如此，板凳上的巨额现金仍在发挥作用，每一次边际下跌都会被买回。美国全国消费者储蓄率远高于过去十年的平均水平。美国人不仅以创纪录的速度参与公共股权市场，而且他们还有充足的流动性来继续购买他们喜欢的股票。</blockquote> Stocks remain the most attractive asset class, with negative real interest rates in the bond market, sky-high commodity prices, highly volatile crypto prices, and pricing pressure that most publicly traded companies have been able to easily transfer to their end-markets (illustrated by Q2 margin results).<blockquote>股票仍然是最具吸引力的资产类别，债券市场的负实际利率、天价商品价格、高度波动的加密货币价格以及大多数上市公司能够轻松转移到终端市场的定价压力（第二季度利润率结果说明）。</blockquote> I expect to see a rolling correction, reflected by a consolidating stock market, instead of this 10%+ correction that analysts have been postulating. Range-bound indexes(less than 10% swings) for some time (month or two) would have the same valuation compressing effect as an all-out correction because earnings would be growing while prices remain muted, leading to shrinking P/E multiples (aka rolling correction).<blockquote>我预计会看到股市盘整所反映的滚动调整，而不是分析师一直假设的 10% 以上的调整。在一段时间（一两个月）内（波动小于 10%）的区间指数（波动小于 10%）会产生与全面修正相同的估值压缩效果，因为收益会增长，而价格保持低迷，导致市盈率缩小（又名滚动修正）。</blockquote> I foresee a sideways broader market trade until the Delta-variant is no longer a global concern. I remain bullish on stocks for the remaining 5 months of 2021 and am confident that the S&amp;P 500 will close out the year higher than it is trading at today.<blockquote>我预计市场交易将横盘整理，直到Delta变体不再是全球关注的问题。在2021年剩余的5个月里，我仍然看好股市，并相信标普500将以高于今天的交易价格结束这一年。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zacks.com/commentary/1773639/whats-next-for-the-sp-500-10-pullback-or-rolling-correction?&art_rec=home-home-investment_ideas_stocks-ID09-txt-1278004\">zacks</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zacks.com/commentary/1773639/whats-next-for-the-sp-500-10-pullback-or-rolling-correction?&art_rec=home-home-investment_ideas_stocks-ID09-txt-1278004","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121866583","content_text":"The market has become increasingly rational as this 16-month bull market matures, and index-based upside potential dwindles every additional percentage they rally. This is a stock picker's market. Quality stocks in well-positioned sectors will have much higher upside potential than most index-tracking ETFs for the remainder of 2021.\nThe S&P 500 hasn't seen a pullback of more than 5% so far this year and hasn't seen an actual correction (a pullback of 10% or more) since last September, which was quickly bought back up once that down 10% mark was reached. Despite this blue-chip benchmark not exhibiting any material sell-off, over 90% of its 505 components have experienced a 10% or larger correction in 2021 thus far.\nRotations In & Out of Growth & Value\nInvestors have kept the stock market's bull drive alive by rotating in and out of growth and value sectors as portfolio's position for the reopening at the beginning of the year, then turned back to growth stocks when the yield surge began to fade mid-May. This performance deviation is clearly illustrated below with Vanguard's growth-oriented ETF (VUG Quick QuoteVUG-Free Report) in the candlesticks and its value-focused ETF (VTV Quick QuoteVTV-Free Report) represented by the orange line.\n\nImage Source: TradingView\nThe year-to-date performance divergence between these two stock groupings illustrates that investors & traders are not buying indiscriminately. Meaning that judgment is going into every trade decision (aka stock picking), causing the market to deflate overstretched areas and reallocate into relatively cheaper spaces.\nAccelerating Annualized Returns\nThe S&P 500 has remained above an extraordinary 75% annualized return trendline for over 16 months now. Unfortunately, this rate of return isn't even close to sustainable.\nThe S&P 500 has averaged 12% upside a year over the past 3 decades. However, the average annual growth rate has aged like fine wine. This blue-chip benchmark has demonstrated an average annualized return of nearly 15% over the past decade, and if narrowed down to just the last 5 years, those annual gains go up to over 16%.\nThe stock market is experiencing swelling average annual gains because of the rapid acceleration of technology that continuously accelerates companies' and our economy's growth outlook. I expect to see continued annualized return acceleration over the next decade as tech makes up a growing portion of the public equity market. Nevertheless, a rolling 75% annualized return out of the S&P 500 isn't viable.\nThere may be too much sideline capital (a record 5.5 trillion in money market funds, according to Goldman Sachs (GS Quick QuoteGS-Free Report) for the market to entirely correct. Still, we are due for consolidation over the next few months, aka a rolling correction.\nWe are now entering a pivotal point in this maturing market cycle. Q2 earnings season has been tremendous thus far, with earnings soaring 105% on sales up over 22% from a year ago. 91% of the reported companies beating EPS estimates, and over 86% beat top-line projections. The richly valued tech sector has demonstrated awe-inspiring Q2 results, with 100% of them exceeding EPS estimates and over 96% beating on revenues, which seemingly justified frothy valuations in the space.\nHowever, analysts are projecting peak earnings growth to be in the rear-view mirror as Q2 earnings season wraps up, and at these rich multiples, valuation compression may be in order. Even with these exceptional quarterly reports and growing full-year estimates, we have seen an undue level of profit-pulling and defensive market positioning. The resurging COVID fears and anticipated shift in monetary policy also weigh on bullish sentiment.\nNevertheless, the enormous amount of cash on the bench is still being put to work, with every marginal dip being bought right back up. The national consumer savings rate in the US sits sizably above the last decade's average. Americans are not only participating in the public equity market at a record rate, but they also have plenty of liquidity to keep buying their favorite stocks.\nStocks remain the most attractive asset class, with negative real interest rates in the bond market, sky-high commodity prices, highly volatile crypto prices, and pricing pressure that most publicly traded companies have been able to easily transfer to their end-markets (illustrated by Q2 margin results).\nI expect to see a rolling correction, reflected by a consolidating stock market, instead of this 10%+ correction that analysts have been postulating. Range-bound indexes(less than 10% swings) for some time (month or two) would have the same valuation compressing effect as an all-out correction because earnings would be growing while prices remain muted, leading to shrinking P/E multiples (aka rolling correction).\nI foresee a sideways broader market trade until the Delta-variant is no longer a global concern. I remain bullish on stocks for the remaining 5 months of 2021 and am confident that the S&P 500 will close out the year higher than it is trading at today.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":899315349,"gmtCreate":1628159701181,"gmtModify":1633753070682,"author":{"id":"3576816969360521","authorId":"3576816969360521","name":"股你怕么","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea4af6f5bc52855706c4d530b3901e85","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3576816969360521","idStr":"3576816969360521"},"htmlText":"Please like and comment","listText":"Please like and comment","text":"Please like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/899315349","repostId":1121866583,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121866583","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628158108,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1121866583?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-05 18:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What's Next For The S&P 500: 10% Pullback or Rolling Correction?<blockquote>标普500的下一步是什么：10%回调还是滚动修正？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121866583","media":"zacks","summary":"The market has become increasingly rational as this 16-month bull market matures, and index-based up","content":"The market has become increasingly rational as this 16-month bull market matures, and index-based upside potential dwindles every additional percentage they rally. This is a stock picker's market. Quality stocks in well-positioned sectors will have much higher upside potential than most index-tracking ETFs for the remainder of 2021.<blockquote>随着这16个月的牛市的成熟，市场变得越来越理性，基于指数的上涨潜力每增加一个百分比，就会减少。这是一个选股者的市场。在 2021 年剩余时间里，定位良好的行业中的优质股票将比大多数指数跟踪 ETF 具有更高的上涨潜力。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 hasn't seen a pullback of more than 5% so far this year and hasn't seen an actual correction (a pullback of 10% or more) since last September, which was quickly bought back up once that down 10% mark was reached. Despite this blue-chip benchmark not exhibiting any material sell-off, over 90% of its 505 components have experienced a 10% or larger correction in 2021 thus far.<blockquote>今年到目前为止，标普500的回调幅度还没有超过 5%，自去年 9 月以来也没有出现过实际的调整（回调 10% 或更多），一旦达到 10% 的下跌关口，该指数就很快被买回。尽管这个蓝筹股基准没有表现出任何材料抛售，但迄今为止，其 505 个组件中有超过 90% 在 2021 年经历了 10% 或更大的调整。</blockquote> Rotations In &amp; Out of Growth &amp; Value<blockquote>增长与价值的进出轮换</blockquote> Investors have kept the stock market's bull drive alive by rotating in and out of growth and value sectors as portfolio's position for the reopening at the beginning of the year, then turned back to growth stocks when the yield surge began to fade mid-May. This performance deviation is clearly illustrated below with Vanguard's growth-oriented ETF (VUG Quick QuoteVUG-Free Report) in the candlesticks and its value-focused ETF (VTV Quick QuoteVTV-Free Report) represented by the orange line.<blockquote>投资者通过在年初重新开盘时轮换进出成长型和价值型板块来保持股市的牛市势头，然后在5月中旬收益率飙升开始消退时又转向成长型股票。下面烛台中的 Vanguard 以增长为导向的 ETF (VUG Quick QuoteVUG-Free Report) 和以价值为导向的 ETF (VTV Quick QuoteVTV-Free Report) 清楚地说明了这种业绩偏差。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80d0680692ab8ada950167692164017e\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"408\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Image Source: TradingView<blockquote>图片来源：TradingView</blockquote> The year-to-date performance divergence between these two stock groupings illustrates that investors &amp; traders are not buying indiscriminately. Meaning that judgment is going into every trade decision (aka stock picking), causing the market to deflate overstretched areas and reallocate into relatively cheaper spaces.<blockquote>这两个股票组合今年迄今为止的表现差异表明，投资者和交易员并没有不分青红皂白地购买。这意味着这种判断会渗透到每一个交易决策（又名选股）中，导致市场收缩过度紧张的领域并重新分配到相对便宜的领域。</blockquote> Accelerating Annualized Returns<blockquote>加速年化回报</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 has remained above an extraordinary 75% annualized return trendline for over 16 months now. Unfortunately, this rate of return isn't even close to sustainable.<blockquote>16 个月来，标普500一直保持在 75% 的年化回报率趋势线之上。不幸的是，这种回报率甚至远未达到可持续水平。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 has averaged 12% upside a year over the past 3 decades. However, the average annual growth rate has aged like fine wine. This blue-chip benchmark has demonstrated an average annualized return of nearly 15% over the past decade, and if narrowed down to just the last 5 years, those annual gains go up to over 16%.<blockquote>过去 30 年来，标普500平均每年上涨 12%。然而，年均增长率却像美酒一样陈年。这一蓝筹股基准在过去十年中的平均年化回报率接近 15%，如果缩小到过去 5 年，这些年收益将超过 16%。</blockquote> The stock market is experiencing swelling average annual gains because of the rapid acceleration of technology that continuously accelerates companies' and our economy's growth outlook. I expect to see continued annualized return acceleration over the next decade as tech makes up a growing portion of the public equity market. Nevertheless, a rolling 75% annualized return out of the S&amp;P 500 isn't viable.<blockquote>由于技术的快速发展不断加速公司和我们经济的增长前景，股市正在经历不断膨胀的年均涨幅。随着科技在公共股票市场中所占份额越来越大，我预计未来十年年化回报率将继续加速。然而，标普500滚动 75% 的年化回报率是不可行的。</blockquote> There may be too much sideline capital (a record 5.5 trillion in money market funds, according to Goldman Sachs (GS Quick QuoteGS-Free Report) for the market to entirely correct. Still, we are due for consolidation over the next few months, aka a rolling correction.<blockquote>可能有太多的边际资本（根据高盛（GS Quick QuoteGS-Free Report）的数据，货币市场基金达到创纪录的5.5万亿美元，市场无法完全纠正。尽管如此，我们仍将在未来几个月进行整合，也就是滚动调整。</blockquote> We are now entering a pivotal point in this maturing market cycle. Q2 earnings season has been tremendous thus far, with earnings soaring 105% on sales up over 22% from a year ago. 91% of the reported companies beating EPS estimates, and over 86% beat top-line projections. The richly valued tech sector has demonstrated awe-inspiring Q2 results, with 100% of them exceeding EPS estimates and over 96% beating on revenues, which seemingly justified frothy valuations in the space.<blockquote>我们现在正进入这个成熟市场周期的关键点。到目前为止，第二季度财报季表现非常出色，盈利飙升 105%，销售额同比增长 22% 以上。91% 的报告公司超出了每股收益预期，超过 86% 的公司超出了营收预测。估值极高的科技行业第二季度业绩令人敬畏，其中 100% 的业绩超出了每股收益预期，超过 96% 的业绩超出了收入预期，这似乎证明了该领域的泡沫估值是合理的。</blockquote> However, analysts are projecting peak earnings growth to be in the rear-view mirror as Q2 earnings season wraps up, and at these rich multiples, valuation compression may be in order. Even with these exceptional quarterly reports and growing full-year estimates, we have seen an undue level of profit-pulling and defensive market positioning. The resurging COVID fears and anticipated shift in monetary policy also weigh on bullish sentiment.<blockquote>然而，分析师预计，随着第二季度财报季的结束，盈利增长峰值将成为过去，在这些丰富的市盈率下，估值可能会压缩。即使有这些出色的季度报告和不断增长的全年预期，我们也看到了过度的利润拉动和防御性市场定位。新冠疫情担忧的死灰复燃和货币政策的预期转变也打压了看涨情绪。</blockquote> Nevertheless, the enormous amount of cash on the bench is still being put to work, with every marginal dip being bought right back up. The national consumer savings rate in the US sits sizably above the last decade's average. Americans are not only participating in the public equity market at a record rate, but they also have plenty of liquidity to keep buying their favorite stocks.<blockquote>尽管如此，板凳上的巨额现金仍在发挥作用，每一次边际下跌都会被买回。美国全国消费者储蓄率远高于过去十年的平均水平。美国人不仅以创纪录的速度参与公共股权市场，而且他们还有充足的流动性来继续购买他们喜欢的股票。</blockquote> Stocks remain the most attractive asset class, with negative real interest rates in the bond market, sky-high commodity prices, highly volatile crypto prices, and pricing pressure that most publicly traded companies have been able to easily transfer to their end-markets (illustrated by Q2 margin results).<blockquote>股票仍然是最具吸引力的资产类别，债券市场的负实际利率、天价商品价格、高度波动的加密货币价格以及大多数上市公司能够轻松转移到终端市场的定价压力（第二季度利润率结果说明）。</blockquote> I expect to see a rolling correction, reflected by a consolidating stock market, instead of this 10%+ correction that analysts have been postulating. Range-bound indexes(less than 10% swings) for some time (month or two) would have the same valuation compressing effect as an all-out correction because earnings would be growing while prices remain muted, leading to shrinking P/E multiples (aka rolling correction).<blockquote>我预计会看到股市盘整所反映的滚动调整，而不是分析师一直假设的 10% 以上的调整。在一段时间（一两个月）内（波动小于 10%）的区间指数（波动小于 10%）会产生与全面修正相同的估值压缩效果，因为收益会增长，而价格保持低迷，导致市盈率缩小（又名滚动修正）。</blockquote> I foresee a sideways broader market trade until the Delta-variant is no longer a global concern. I remain bullish on stocks for the remaining 5 months of 2021 and am confident that the S&amp;P 500 will close out the year higher than it is trading at today.<blockquote>我预计市场交易将横盘整理，直到Delta变体不再是全球关注的问题。在2021年剩余的5个月里，我仍然看好股市，并相信标普500将以高于今天的交易价格结束这一年。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What's Next For The S&P 500: 10% Pullback or Rolling Correction?<blockquote>标普500的下一步是什么：10%回调还是滚动修正？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat's Next For The S&P 500: 10% Pullback or Rolling Correction?<blockquote>标普500的下一步是什么：10%回调还是滚动修正？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzacks2021-08-05 18:08\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe market has become increasingly rational as this 16-month bull market matures, and index-based upside potential dwindles every additional percentage they rally. This is a stock picker's market. Quality stocks in well-positioned sectors will have much higher upside potential than most index-tracking ETFs for the remainder of 2021.<blockquote>随着这16个月的牛市的成熟，市场变得越来越理性，基于指数的上涨潜力每增加一个百分比，就会减少。这是一个选股者的市场。在 2021 年剩余时间里，定位良好的行业中的优质股票将比大多数指数跟踪 ETF 具有更高的上涨潜力。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 hasn't seen a pullback of more than 5% so far this year and hasn't seen an actual correction (a pullback of 10% or more) since last September, which was quickly bought back up once that down 10% mark was reached. Despite this blue-chip benchmark not exhibiting any material sell-off, over 90% of its 505 components have experienced a 10% or larger correction in 2021 thus far.<blockquote>今年到目前为止，标普500的回调幅度还没有超过 5%，自去年 9 月以来也没有出现过实际的调整（回调 10% 或更多），一旦达到 10% 的下跌关口，该指数就很快被买回。尽管这个蓝筹股基准没有表现出任何材料抛售，但迄今为止，其 505 个组件中有超过 90% 在 2021 年经历了 10% 或更大的调整。</blockquote> Rotations In &amp; Out of Growth &amp; Value<blockquote>增长与价值的进出轮换</blockquote> Investors have kept the stock market's bull drive alive by rotating in and out of growth and value sectors as portfolio's position for the reopening at the beginning of the year, then turned back to growth stocks when the yield surge began to fade mid-May. This performance deviation is clearly illustrated below with Vanguard's growth-oriented ETF (VUG Quick QuoteVUG-Free Report) in the candlesticks and its value-focused ETF (VTV Quick QuoteVTV-Free Report) represented by the orange line.<blockquote>投资者通过在年初重新开盘时轮换进出成长型和价值型板块来保持股市的牛市势头，然后在5月中旬收益率飙升开始消退时又转向成长型股票。下面烛台中的 Vanguard 以增长为导向的 ETF (VUG Quick QuoteVUG-Free Report) 和以价值为导向的 ETF (VTV Quick QuoteVTV-Free Report) 清楚地说明了这种业绩偏差。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80d0680692ab8ada950167692164017e\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"408\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Image Source: TradingView<blockquote>图片来源：TradingView</blockquote> The year-to-date performance divergence between these two stock groupings illustrates that investors &amp; traders are not buying indiscriminately. Meaning that judgment is going into every trade decision (aka stock picking), causing the market to deflate overstretched areas and reallocate into relatively cheaper spaces.<blockquote>这两个股票组合今年迄今为止的表现差异表明，投资者和交易员并没有不分青红皂白地购买。这意味着这种判断会渗透到每一个交易决策（又名选股）中，导致市场收缩过度紧张的领域并重新分配到相对便宜的领域。</blockquote> Accelerating Annualized Returns<blockquote>加速年化回报</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 has remained above an extraordinary 75% annualized return trendline for over 16 months now. Unfortunately, this rate of return isn't even close to sustainable.<blockquote>16 个月来，标普500一直保持在 75% 的年化回报率趋势线之上。不幸的是，这种回报率甚至远未达到可持续水平。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 has averaged 12% upside a year over the past 3 decades. However, the average annual growth rate has aged like fine wine. This blue-chip benchmark has demonstrated an average annualized return of nearly 15% over the past decade, and if narrowed down to just the last 5 years, those annual gains go up to over 16%.<blockquote>过去 30 年来，标普500平均每年上涨 12%。然而，年均增长率却像美酒一样陈年。这一蓝筹股基准在过去十年中的平均年化回报率接近 15%，如果缩小到过去 5 年，这些年收益将超过 16%。</blockquote> The stock market is experiencing swelling average annual gains because of the rapid acceleration of technology that continuously accelerates companies' and our economy's growth outlook. I expect to see continued annualized return acceleration over the next decade as tech makes up a growing portion of the public equity market. Nevertheless, a rolling 75% annualized return out of the S&amp;P 500 isn't viable.<blockquote>由于技术的快速发展不断加速公司和我们经济的增长前景，股市正在经历不断膨胀的年均涨幅。随着科技在公共股票市场中所占份额越来越大，我预计未来十年年化回报率将继续加速。然而，标普500滚动 75% 的年化回报率是不可行的。</blockquote> There may be too much sideline capital (a record 5.5 trillion in money market funds, according to Goldman Sachs (GS Quick QuoteGS-Free Report) for the market to entirely correct. Still, we are due for consolidation over the next few months, aka a rolling correction.<blockquote>可能有太多的边际资本（根据高盛（GS Quick QuoteGS-Free Report）的数据，货币市场基金达到创纪录的5.5万亿美元，市场无法完全纠正。尽管如此，我们仍将在未来几个月进行整合，也就是滚动调整。</blockquote> We are now entering a pivotal point in this maturing market cycle. Q2 earnings season has been tremendous thus far, with earnings soaring 105% on sales up over 22% from a year ago. 91% of the reported companies beating EPS estimates, and over 86% beat top-line projections. The richly valued tech sector has demonstrated awe-inspiring Q2 results, with 100% of them exceeding EPS estimates and over 96% beating on revenues, which seemingly justified frothy valuations in the space.<blockquote>我们现在正进入这个成熟市场周期的关键点。到目前为止，第二季度财报季表现非常出色，盈利飙升 105%，销售额同比增长 22% 以上。91% 的报告公司超出了每股收益预期，超过 86% 的公司超出了营收预测。估值极高的科技行业第二季度业绩令人敬畏，其中 100% 的业绩超出了每股收益预期，超过 96% 的业绩超出了收入预期，这似乎证明了该领域的泡沫估值是合理的。</blockquote> However, analysts are projecting peak earnings growth to be in the rear-view mirror as Q2 earnings season wraps up, and at these rich multiples, valuation compression may be in order. Even with these exceptional quarterly reports and growing full-year estimates, we have seen an undue level of profit-pulling and defensive market positioning. The resurging COVID fears and anticipated shift in monetary policy also weigh on bullish sentiment.<blockquote>然而，分析师预计，随着第二季度财报季的结束，盈利增长峰值将成为过去，在这些丰富的市盈率下，估值可能会压缩。即使有这些出色的季度报告和不断增长的全年预期，我们也看到了过度的利润拉动和防御性市场定位。新冠疫情担忧的死灰复燃和货币政策的预期转变也打压了看涨情绪。</blockquote> Nevertheless, the enormous amount of cash on the bench is still being put to work, with every marginal dip being bought right back up. The national consumer savings rate in the US sits sizably above the last decade's average. Americans are not only participating in the public equity market at a record rate, but they also have plenty of liquidity to keep buying their favorite stocks.<blockquote>尽管如此，板凳上的巨额现金仍在发挥作用，每一次边际下跌都会被买回。美国全国消费者储蓄率远高于过去十年的平均水平。美国人不仅以创纪录的速度参与公共股权市场，而且他们还有充足的流动性来继续购买他们喜欢的股票。</blockquote> Stocks remain the most attractive asset class, with negative real interest rates in the bond market, sky-high commodity prices, highly volatile crypto prices, and pricing pressure that most publicly traded companies have been able to easily transfer to their end-markets (illustrated by Q2 margin results).<blockquote>股票仍然是最具吸引力的资产类别，债券市场的负实际利率、天价商品价格、高度波动的加密货币价格以及大多数上市公司能够轻松转移到终端市场的定价压力（第二季度利润率结果说明）。</blockquote> I expect to see a rolling correction, reflected by a consolidating stock market, instead of this 10%+ correction that analysts have been postulating. Range-bound indexes(less than 10% swings) for some time (month or two) would have the same valuation compressing effect as an all-out correction because earnings would be growing while prices remain muted, leading to shrinking P/E multiples (aka rolling correction).<blockquote>我预计会看到股市盘整所反映的滚动调整，而不是分析师一直假设的 10% 以上的调整。在一段时间（一两个月）内（波动小于 10%）的区间指数（波动小于 10%）会产生与全面修正相同的估值压缩效果，因为收益会增长，而价格保持低迷，导致市盈率缩小（又名滚动修正）。</blockquote> I foresee a sideways broader market trade until the Delta-variant is no longer a global concern. I remain bullish on stocks for the remaining 5 months of 2021 and am confident that the S&amp;P 500 will close out the year higher than it is trading at today.<blockquote>我预计市场交易将横盘整理，直到Delta变体不再是全球关注的问题。在2021年剩余的5个月里，我仍然看好股市，并相信标普500将以高于今天的交易价格结束这一年。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zacks.com/commentary/1773639/whats-next-for-the-sp-500-10-pullback-or-rolling-correction?&art_rec=home-home-investment_ideas_stocks-ID09-txt-1278004\">zacks</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zacks.com/commentary/1773639/whats-next-for-the-sp-500-10-pullback-or-rolling-correction?&art_rec=home-home-investment_ideas_stocks-ID09-txt-1278004","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121866583","content_text":"The market has become increasingly rational as this 16-month bull market matures, and index-based upside potential dwindles every additional percentage they rally. This is a stock picker's market. Quality stocks in well-positioned sectors will have much higher upside potential than most index-tracking ETFs for the remainder of 2021.\nThe S&P 500 hasn't seen a pullback of more than 5% so far this year and hasn't seen an actual correction (a pullback of 10% or more) since last September, which was quickly bought back up once that down 10% mark was reached. Despite this blue-chip benchmark not exhibiting any material sell-off, over 90% of its 505 components have experienced a 10% or larger correction in 2021 thus far.\nRotations In & Out of Growth & Value\nInvestors have kept the stock market's bull drive alive by rotating in and out of growth and value sectors as portfolio's position for the reopening at the beginning of the year, then turned back to growth stocks when the yield surge began to fade mid-May. This performance deviation is clearly illustrated below with Vanguard's growth-oriented ETF (VUG Quick QuoteVUG-Free Report) in the candlesticks and its value-focused ETF (VTV Quick QuoteVTV-Free Report) represented by the orange line.\n\nImage Source: TradingView\nThe year-to-date performance divergence between these two stock groupings illustrates that investors & traders are not buying indiscriminately. Meaning that judgment is going into every trade decision (aka stock picking), causing the market to deflate overstretched areas and reallocate into relatively cheaper spaces.\nAccelerating Annualized Returns\nThe S&P 500 has remained above an extraordinary 75% annualized return trendline for over 16 months now. Unfortunately, this rate of return isn't even close to sustainable.\nThe S&P 500 has averaged 12% upside a year over the past 3 decades. However, the average annual growth rate has aged like fine wine. This blue-chip benchmark has demonstrated an average annualized return of nearly 15% over the past decade, and if narrowed down to just the last 5 years, those annual gains go up to over 16%.\nThe stock market is experiencing swelling average annual gains because of the rapid acceleration of technology that continuously accelerates companies' and our economy's growth outlook. I expect to see continued annualized return acceleration over the next decade as tech makes up a growing portion of the public equity market. Nevertheless, a rolling 75% annualized return out of the S&P 500 isn't viable.\nThere may be too much sideline capital (a record 5.5 trillion in money market funds, according to Goldman Sachs (GS Quick QuoteGS-Free Report) for the market to entirely correct. Still, we are due for consolidation over the next few months, aka a rolling correction.\nWe are now entering a pivotal point in this maturing market cycle. Q2 earnings season has been tremendous thus far, with earnings soaring 105% on sales up over 22% from a year ago. 91% of the reported companies beating EPS estimates, and over 86% beat top-line projections. The richly valued tech sector has demonstrated awe-inspiring Q2 results, with 100% of them exceeding EPS estimates and over 96% beating on revenues, which seemingly justified frothy valuations in the space.\nHowever, analysts are projecting peak earnings growth to be in the rear-view mirror as Q2 earnings season wraps up, and at these rich multiples, valuation compression may be in order. Even with these exceptional quarterly reports and growing full-year estimates, we have seen an undue level of profit-pulling and defensive market positioning. The resurging COVID fears and anticipated shift in monetary policy also weigh on bullish sentiment.\nNevertheless, the enormous amount of cash on the bench is still being put to work, with every marginal dip being bought right back up. The national consumer savings rate in the US sits sizably above the last decade's average. Americans are not only participating in the public equity market at a record rate, but they also have plenty of liquidity to keep buying their favorite stocks.\nStocks remain the most attractive asset class, with negative real interest rates in the bond market, sky-high commodity prices, highly volatile crypto prices, and pricing pressure that most publicly traded companies have been able to easily transfer to their end-markets (illustrated by Q2 margin results).\nI expect to see a rolling correction, reflected by a consolidating stock market, instead of this 10%+ correction that analysts have been postulating. Range-bound indexes(less than 10% swings) for some time (month or two) would have the same valuation compressing effect as an all-out correction because earnings would be growing while prices remain muted, leading to shrinking P/E multiples (aka rolling correction).\nI foresee a sideways broader market trade until the Delta-variant is no longer a global concern. I remain bullish on stocks for the remaining 5 months of 2021 and am confident that the S&P 500 will close out the year higher than it is trading at today.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5435584,"gmtCreate":1628159993581,"gmtModify":1631896519844,"authorId":3567211743735274,"author":{"id":3567211743735274,"idStr":"3567211743735274","authorId":3567211743735274,"name":"Gzong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab57e9e3bb9415705d707b7525879ebc","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":3575958434174944,"repliedAuthor":{"id":3575958434174944,"idStr":"3575958434174944","authorId":3575958434174944,"name":"Shadotaiger","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c26a9d060fabab1c1347edbfc7329574","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"objectId":899315349,"type":1,"supId":5435567,"prevId":5435570,"content":"buy more!","text":"buy more!","html":"buy more!"},{"id":5435570,"gmtCreate":1628159783801,"gmtModify":1631896519835,"authorId":3575958434174944,"author":{"id":3575958434174944,"idStr":"3575958434174944","authorId":3575958434174944,"name":"Shadotaiger","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c26a9d060fabab1c1347edbfc7329574","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":899315349,"type":1,"supId":5435567,"prevId":0,"content":"ok","text":"ok","html":"ok"},{"id":5435567,"gmtCreate":1628159739166,"gmtModify":1631896519825,"authorId":3585533190234168,"author":{"id":3585533190234168,"idStr":"3585533190234168","authorId":3585533190234168,"name":"百万王子","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ddf905b898fe0752bea7c6d549654cb4","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":899315349,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"noted","text":"noted","html":"noted"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":899315957,"gmtCreate":1628159698679,"gmtModify":1633753070805,"author":{"id":"3582936698066263","authorId":"3582936698066263","name":"aiyohyun","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5efe05924fc38dd8db647c314e32c5b2","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3582936698066263","idStr":"3582936698066263"},"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/899315957","repostId":1121866583,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121866583","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628158108,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1121866583?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-05 18:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What's Next For The S&P 500: 10% Pullback or Rolling Correction?<blockquote>标普500的下一步是什么：10%回调还是滚动修正？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121866583","media":"zacks","summary":"The market has become increasingly rational as this 16-month bull market matures, and index-based up","content":"The market has become increasingly rational as this 16-month bull market matures, and index-based upside potential dwindles every additional percentage they rally. This is a stock picker's market. Quality stocks in well-positioned sectors will have much higher upside potential than most index-tracking ETFs for the remainder of 2021.<blockquote>随着这16个月的牛市的成熟，市场变得越来越理性，基于指数的上涨潜力每增加一个百分比，就会减少。这是一个选股者的市场。在 2021 年剩余时间里，定位良好的行业中的优质股票将比大多数指数跟踪 ETF 具有更高的上涨潜力。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 hasn't seen a pullback of more than 5% so far this year and hasn't seen an actual correction (a pullback of 10% or more) since last September, which was quickly bought back up once that down 10% mark was reached. Despite this blue-chip benchmark not exhibiting any material sell-off, over 90% of its 505 components have experienced a 10% or larger correction in 2021 thus far.<blockquote>今年到目前为止，标普500的回调幅度还没有超过 5%，自去年 9 月以来也没有出现过实际的调整（回调 10% 或更多），一旦达到 10% 的下跌关口，该指数就很快被买回。尽管这个蓝筹股基准没有表现出任何材料抛售，但迄今为止，其 505 个组件中有超过 90% 在 2021 年经历了 10% 或更大的调整。</blockquote> Rotations In &amp; Out of Growth &amp; Value<blockquote>增长与价值的进出轮换</blockquote> Investors have kept the stock market's bull drive alive by rotating in and out of growth and value sectors as portfolio's position for the reopening at the beginning of the year, then turned back to growth stocks when the yield surge began to fade mid-May. This performance deviation is clearly illustrated below with Vanguard's growth-oriented ETF (VUG Quick QuoteVUG-Free Report) in the candlesticks and its value-focused ETF (VTV Quick QuoteVTV-Free Report) represented by the orange line.<blockquote>投资者通过在年初重新开盘时轮换进出成长型和价值型板块来保持股市的牛市势头，然后在5月中旬收益率飙升开始消退时又转向成长型股票。下面烛台中的 Vanguard 以增长为导向的 ETF (VUG Quick QuoteVUG-Free Report) 和以价值为导向的 ETF (VTV Quick QuoteVTV-Free Report) 清楚地说明了这种业绩偏差。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80d0680692ab8ada950167692164017e\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"408\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Image Source: TradingView<blockquote>图片来源：TradingView</blockquote> The year-to-date performance divergence between these two stock groupings illustrates that investors &amp; traders are not buying indiscriminately. Meaning that judgment is going into every trade decision (aka stock picking), causing the market to deflate overstretched areas and reallocate into relatively cheaper spaces.<blockquote>这两个股票组合今年迄今为止的表现差异表明，投资者和交易员并没有不分青红皂白地购买。这意味着这种判断会渗透到每一个交易决策（又名选股）中，导致市场收缩过度紧张的领域并重新分配到相对便宜的领域。</blockquote> Accelerating Annualized Returns<blockquote>加速年化回报</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 has remained above an extraordinary 75% annualized return trendline for over 16 months now. Unfortunately, this rate of return isn't even close to sustainable.<blockquote>16 个月来，标普500一直保持在 75% 的年化回报率趋势线之上。不幸的是，这种回报率甚至远未达到可持续水平。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 has averaged 12% upside a year over the past 3 decades. However, the average annual growth rate has aged like fine wine. This blue-chip benchmark has demonstrated an average annualized return of nearly 15% over the past decade, and if narrowed down to just the last 5 years, those annual gains go up to over 16%.<blockquote>过去 30 年来，标普500平均每年上涨 12%。然而，年均增长率却像美酒一样陈年。这一蓝筹股基准在过去十年中的平均年化回报率接近 15%，如果缩小到过去 5 年，这些年收益将超过 16%。</blockquote> The stock market is experiencing swelling average annual gains because of the rapid acceleration of technology that continuously accelerates companies' and our economy's growth outlook. I expect to see continued annualized return acceleration over the next decade as tech makes up a growing portion of the public equity market. Nevertheless, a rolling 75% annualized return out of the S&amp;P 500 isn't viable.<blockquote>由于技术的快速发展不断加速公司和我们经济的增长前景，股市正在经历不断膨胀的年均涨幅。随着科技在公共股票市场中所占份额越来越大，我预计未来十年年化回报率将继续加速。然而，标普500滚动 75% 的年化回报率是不可行的。</blockquote> There may be too much sideline capital (a record 5.5 trillion in money market funds, according to Goldman Sachs (GS Quick QuoteGS-Free Report) for the market to entirely correct. Still, we are due for consolidation over the next few months, aka a rolling correction.<blockquote>可能有太多的边际资本（根据高盛（GS Quick QuoteGS-Free Report）的数据，货币市场基金达到创纪录的5.5万亿美元，市场无法完全纠正。尽管如此，我们仍将在未来几个月进行整合，也就是滚动调整。</blockquote> We are now entering a pivotal point in this maturing market cycle. Q2 earnings season has been tremendous thus far, with earnings soaring 105% on sales up over 22% from a year ago. 91% of the reported companies beating EPS estimates, and over 86% beat top-line projections. The richly valued tech sector has demonstrated awe-inspiring Q2 results, with 100% of them exceeding EPS estimates and over 96% beating on revenues, which seemingly justified frothy valuations in the space.<blockquote>我们现在正进入这个成熟市场周期的关键点。到目前为止，第二季度财报季表现非常出色，盈利飙升 105%，销售额同比增长 22% 以上。91% 的报告公司超出了每股收益预期，超过 86% 的公司超出了营收预测。估值极高的科技行业第二季度业绩令人敬畏，其中 100% 的业绩超出了每股收益预期，超过 96% 的业绩超出了收入预期，这似乎证明了该领域的泡沫估值是合理的。</blockquote> However, analysts are projecting peak earnings growth to be in the rear-view mirror as Q2 earnings season wraps up, and at these rich multiples, valuation compression may be in order. Even with these exceptional quarterly reports and growing full-year estimates, we have seen an undue level of profit-pulling and defensive market positioning. The resurging COVID fears and anticipated shift in monetary policy also weigh on bullish sentiment.<blockquote>然而，分析师预计，随着第二季度财报季的结束，盈利增长峰值将成为过去，在这些丰富的市盈率下，估值可能会压缩。即使有这些出色的季度报告和不断增长的全年预期，我们也看到了过度的利润拉动和防御性市场定位。新冠疫情担忧的死灰复燃和货币政策的预期转变也打压了看涨情绪。</blockquote> Nevertheless, the enormous amount of cash on the bench is still being put to work, with every marginal dip being bought right back up. The national consumer savings rate in the US sits sizably above the last decade's average. Americans are not only participating in the public equity market at a record rate, but they also have plenty of liquidity to keep buying their favorite stocks.<blockquote>尽管如此，板凳上的巨额现金仍在发挥作用，每一次边际下跌都会被买回。美国全国消费者储蓄率远高于过去十年的平均水平。美国人不仅以创纪录的速度参与公共股权市场，而且他们还有充足的流动性来继续购买他们喜欢的股票。</blockquote> Stocks remain the most attractive asset class, with negative real interest rates in the bond market, sky-high commodity prices, highly volatile crypto prices, and pricing pressure that most publicly traded companies have been able to easily transfer to their end-markets (illustrated by Q2 margin results).<blockquote>股票仍然是最具吸引力的资产类别，债券市场的负实际利率、天价商品价格、高度波动的加密货币价格以及大多数上市公司能够轻松转移到终端市场的定价压力（第二季度利润率结果说明）。</blockquote> I expect to see a rolling correction, reflected by a consolidating stock market, instead of this 10%+ correction that analysts have been postulating. Range-bound indexes(less than 10% swings) for some time (month or two) would have the same valuation compressing effect as an all-out correction because earnings would be growing while prices remain muted, leading to shrinking P/E multiples (aka rolling correction).<blockquote>我预计会看到股市盘整所反映的滚动调整，而不是分析师一直假设的 10% 以上的调整。在一段时间（一两个月）内（波动小于 10%）的区间指数（波动小于 10%）会产生与全面修正相同的估值压缩效果，因为收益会增长，而价格保持低迷，导致市盈率缩小（又名滚动修正）。</blockquote> I foresee a sideways broader market trade until the Delta-variant is no longer a global concern. I remain bullish on stocks for the remaining 5 months of 2021 and am confident that the S&amp;P 500 will close out the year higher than it is trading at today.<blockquote>我预计市场交易将横盘整理，直到Delta变体不再是全球关注的问题。在2021年剩余的5个月里，我仍然看好股市，并相信标普500将以高于今天的交易价格结束这一年。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What's Next For The S&P 500: 10% Pullback or Rolling Correction?<blockquote>标普500的下一步是什么：10%回调还是滚动修正？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat's Next For The S&P 500: 10% Pullback or Rolling Correction?<blockquote>标普500的下一步是什么：10%回调还是滚动修正？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzacks2021-08-05 18:08\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe market has become increasingly rational as this 16-month bull market matures, and index-based upside potential dwindles every additional percentage they rally. This is a stock picker's market. Quality stocks in well-positioned sectors will have much higher upside potential than most index-tracking ETFs for the remainder of 2021.<blockquote>随着这16个月的牛市的成熟，市场变得越来越理性，基于指数的上涨潜力每增加一个百分比，就会减少。这是一个选股者的市场。在 2021 年剩余时间里，定位良好的行业中的优质股票将比大多数指数跟踪 ETF 具有更高的上涨潜力。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 hasn't seen a pullback of more than 5% so far this year and hasn't seen an actual correction (a pullback of 10% or more) since last September, which was quickly bought back up once that down 10% mark was reached. Despite this blue-chip benchmark not exhibiting any material sell-off, over 90% of its 505 components have experienced a 10% or larger correction in 2021 thus far.<blockquote>今年到目前为止，标普500的回调幅度还没有超过 5%，自去年 9 月以来也没有出现过实际的调整（回调 10% 或更多），一旦达到 10% 的下跌关口，该指数就很快被买回。尽管这个蓝筹股基准没有表现出任何材料抛售，但迄今为止，其 505 个组件中有超过 90% 在 2021 年经历了 10% 或更大的调整。</blockquote> Rotations In &amp; Out of Growth &amp; Value<blockquote>增长与价值的进出轮换</blockquote> Investors have kept the stock market's bull drive alive by rotating in and out of growth and value sectors as portfolio's position for the reopening at the beginning of the year, then turned back to growth stocks when the yield surge began to fade mid-May. This performance deviation is clearly illustrated below with Vanguard's growth-oriented ETF (VUG Quick QuoteVUG-Free Report) in the candlesticks and its value-focused ETF (VTV Quick QuoteVTV-Free Report) represented by the orange line.<blockquote>投资者通过在年初重新开盘时轮换进出成长型和价值型板块来保持股市的牛市势头，然后在5月中旬收益率飙升开始消退时又转向成长型股票。下面烛台中的 Vanguard 以增长为导向的 ETF (VUG Quick QuoteVUG-Free Report) 和以价值为导向的 ETF (VTV Quick QuoteVTV-Free Report) 清楚地说明了这种业绩偏差。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80d0680692ab8ada950167692164017e\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"408\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Image Source: TradingView<blockquote>图片来源：TradingView</blockquote> The year-to-date performance divergence between these two stock groupings illustrates that investors &amp; traders are not buying indiscriminately. Meaning that judgment is going into every trade decision (aka stock picking), causing the market to deflate overstretched areas and reallocate into relatively cheaper spaces.<blockquote>这两个股票组合今年迄今为止的表现差异表明，投资者和交易员并没有不分青红皂白地购买。这意味着这种判断会渗透到每一个交易决策（又名选股）中，导致市场收缩过度紧张的领域并重新分配到相对便宜的领域。</blockquote> Accelerating Annualized Returns<blockquote>加速年化回报</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 has remained above an extraordinary 75% annualized return trendline for over 16 months now. Unfortunately, this rate of return isn't even close to sustainable.<blockquote>16 个月来，标普500一直保持在 75% 的年化回报率趋势线之上。不幸的是，这种回报率甚至远未达到可持续水平。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 has averaged 12% upside a year over the past 3 decades. However, the average annual growth rate has aged like fine wine. This blue-chip benchmark has demonstrated an average annualized return of nearly 15% over the past decade, and if narrowed down to just the last 5 years, those annual gains go up to over 16%.<blockquote>过去 30 年来，标普500平均每年上涨 12%。然而，年均增长率却像美酒一样陈年。这一蓝筹股基准在过去十年中的平均年化回报率接近 15%，如果缩小到过去 5 年，这些年收益将超过 16%。</blockquote> The stock market is experiencing swelling average annual gains because of the rapid acceleration of technology that continuously accelerates companies' and our economy's growth outlook. I expect to see continued annualized return acceleration over the next decade as tech makes up a growing portion of the public equity market. Nevertheless, a rolling 75% annualized return out of the S&amp;P 500 isn't viable.<blockquote>由于技术的快速发展不断加速公司和我们经济的增长前景，股市正在经历不断膨胀的年均涨幅。随着科技在公共股票市场中所占份额越来越大，我预计未来十年年化回报率将继续加速。然而，标普500滚动 75% 的年化回报率是不可行的。</blockquote> There may be too much sideline capital (a record 5.5 trillion in money market funds, according to Goldman Sachs (GS Quick QuoteGS-Free Report) for the market to entirely correct. Still, we are due for consolidation over the next few months, aka a rolling correction.<blockquote>可能有太多的边际资本（根据高盛（GS Quick QuoteGS-Free Report）的数据，货币市场基金达到创纪录的5.5万亿美元，市场无法完全纠正。尽管如此，我们仍将在未来几个月进行整合，也就是滚动调整。</blockquote> We are now entering a pivotal point in this maturing market cycle. Q2 earnings season has been tremendous thus far, with earnings soaring 105% on sales up over 22% from a year ago. 91% of the reported companies beating EPS estimates, and over 86% beat top-line projections. The richly valued tech sector has demonstrated awe-inspiring Q2 results, with 100% of them exceeding EPS estimates and over 96% beating on revenues, which seemingly justified frothy valuations in the space.<blockquote>我们现在正进入这个成熟市场周期的关键点。到目前为止，第二季度财报季表现非常出色，盈利飙升 105%，销售额同比增长 22% 以上。91% 的报告公司超出了每股收益预期，超过 86% 的公司超出了营收预测。估值极高的科技行业第二季度业绩令人敬畏，其中 100% 的业绩超出了每股收益预期，超过 96% 的业绩超出了收入预期，这似乎证明了该领域的泡沫估值是合理的。</blockquote> However, analysts are projecting peak earnings growth to be in the rear-view mirror as Q2 earnings season wraps up, and at these rich multiples, valuation compression may be in order. Even with these exceptional quarterly reports and growing full-year estimates, we have seen an undue level of profit-pulling and defensive market positioning. The resurging COVID fears and anticipated shift in monetary policy also weigh on bullish sentiment.<blockquote>然而，分析师预计，随着第二季度财报季的结束，盈利增长峰值将成为过去，在这些丰富的市盈率下，估值可能会压缩。即使有这些出色的季度报告和不断增长的全年预期，我们也看到了过度的利润拉动和防御性市场定位。新冠疫情担忧的死灰复燃和货币政策的预期转变也打压了看涨情绪。</blockquote> Nevertheless, the enormous amount of cash on the bench is still being put to work, with every marginal dip being bought right back up. The national consumer savings rate in the US sits sizably above the last decade's average. Americans are not only participating in the public equity market at a record rate, but they also have plenty of liquidity to keep buying their favorite stocks.<blockquote>尽管如此，板凳上的巨额现金仍在发挥作用，每一次边际下跌都会被买回。美国全国消费者储蓄率远高于过去十年的平均水平。美国人不仅以创纪录的速度参与公共股权市场，而且他们还有充足的流动性来继续购买他们喜欢的股票。</blockquote> Stocks remain the most attractive asset class, with negative real interest rates in the bond market, sky-high commodity prices, highly volatile crypto prices, and pricing pressure that most publicly traded companies have been able to easily transfer to their end-markets (illustrated by Q2 margin results).<blockquote>股票仍然是最具吸引力的资产类别，债券市场的负实际利率、天价商品价格、高度波动的加密货币价格以及大多数上市公司能够轻松转移到终端市场的定价压力（第二季度利润率结果说明）。</blockquote> I expect to see a rolling correction, reflected by a consolidating stock market, instead of this 10%+ correction that analysts have been postulating. Range-bound indexes(less than 10% swings) for some time (month or two) would have the same valuation compressing effect as an all-out correction because earnings would be growing while prices remain muted, leading to shrinking P/E multiples (aka rolling correction).<blockquote>我预计会看到股市盘整所反映的滚动调整，而不是分析师一直假设的 10% 以上的调整。在一段时间（一两个月）内（波动小于 10%）的区间指数（波动小于 10%）会产生与全面修正相同的估值压缩效果，因为收益会增长，而价格保持低迷，导致市盈率缩小（又名滚动修正）。</blockquote> I foresee a sideways broader market trade until the Delta-variant is no longer a global concern. I remain bullish on stocks for the remaining 5 months of 2021 and am confident that the S&amp;P 500 will close out the year higher than it is trading at today.<blockquote>我预计市场交易将横盘整理，直到Delta变体不再是全球关注的问题。在2021年剩余的5个月里，我仍然看好股市，并相信标普500将以高于今天的交易价格结束这一年。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zacks.com/commentary/1773639/whats-next-for-the-sp-500-10-pullback-or-rolling-correction?&art_rec=home-home-investment_ideas_stocks-ID09-txt-1278004\">zacks</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zacks.com/commentary/1773639/whats-next-for-the-sp-500-10-pullback-or-rolling-correction?&art_rec=home-home-investment_ideas_stocks-ID09-txt-1278004","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121866583","content_text":"The market has become increasingly rational as this 16-month bull market matures, and index-based upside potential dwindles every additional percentage they rally. This is a stock picker's market. Quality stocks in well-positioned sectors will have much higher upside potential than most index-tracking ETFs for the remainder of 2021.\nThe S&P 500 hasn't seen a pullback of more than 5% so far this year and hasn't seen an actual correction (a pullback of 10% or more) since last September, which was quickly bought back up once that down 10% mark was reached. Despite this blue-chip benchmark not exhibiting any material sell-off, over 90% of its 505 components have experienced a 10% or larger correction in 2021 thus far.\nRotations In & Out of Growth & Value\nInvestors have kept the stock market's bull drive alive by rotating in and out of growth and value sectors as portfolio's position for the reopening at the beginning of the year, then turned back to growth stocks when the yield surge began to fade mid-May. This performance deviation is clearly illustrated below with Vanguard's growth-oriented ETF (VUG Quick QuoteVUG-Free Report) in the candlesticks and its value-focused ETF (VTV Quick QuoteVTV-Free Report) represented by the orange line.\n\nImage Source: TradingView\nThe year-to-date performance divergence between these two stock groupings illustrates that investors & traders are not buying indiscriminately. Meaning that judgment is going into every trade decision (aka stock picking), causing the market to deflate overstretched areas and reallocate into relatively cheaper spaces.\nAccelerating Annualized Returns\nThe S&P 500 has remained above an extraordinary 75% annualized return trendline for over 16 months now. Unfortunately, this rate of return isn't even close to sustainable.\nThe S&P 500 has averaged 12% upside a year over the past 3 decades. However, the average annual growth rate has aged like fine wine. This blue-chip benchmark has demonstrated an average annualized return of nearly 15% over the past decade, and if narrowed down to just the last 5 years, those annual gains go up to over 16%.\nThe stock market is experiencing swelling average annual gains because of the rapid acceleration of technology that continuously accelerates companies' and our economy's growth outlook. I expect to see continued annualized return acceleration over the next decade as tech makes up a growing portion of the public equity market. Nevertheless, a rolling 75% annualized return out of the S&P 500 isn't viable.\nThere may be too much sideline capital (a record 5.5 trillion in money market funds, according to Goldman Sachs (GS Quick QuoteGS-Free Report) for the market to entirely correct. Still, we are due for consolidation over the next few months, aka a rolling correction.\nWe are now entering a pivotal point in this maturing market cycle. Q2 earnings season has been tremendous thus far, with earnings soaring 105% on sales up over 22% from a year ago. 91% of the reported companies beating EPS estimates, and over 86% beat top-line projections. The richly valued tech sector has demonstrated awe-inspiring Q2 results, with 100% of them exceeding EPS estimates and over 96% beating on revenues, which seemingly justified frothy valuations in the space.\nHowever, analysts are projecting peak earnings growth to be in the rear-view mirror as Q2 earnings season wraps up, and at these rich multiples, valuation compression may be in order. Even with these exceptional quarterly reports and growing full-year estimates, we have seen an undue level of profit-pulling and defensive market positioning. The resurging COVID fears and anticipated shift in monetary policy also weigh on bullish sentiment.\nNevertheless, the enormous amount of cash on the bench is still being put to work, with every marginal dip being bought right back up. The national consumer savings rate in the US sits sizably above the last decade's average. Americans are not only participating in the public equity market at a record rate, but they also have plenty of liquidity to keep buying their favorite stocks.\nStocks remain the most attractive asset class, with negative real interest rates in the bond market, sky-high commodity prices, highly volatile crypto prices, and pricing pressure that most publicly traded companies have been able to easily transfer to their end-markets (illustrated by Q2 margin results).\nI expect to see a rolling correction, reflected by a consolidating stock market, instead of this 10%+ correction that analysts have been postulating. Range-bound indexes(less than 10% swings) for some time (month or two) would have the same valuation compressing effect as an all-out correction because earnings would be growing while prices remain muted, leading to shrinking P/E multiples (aka rolling correction).\nI foresee a sideways broader market trade until the Delta-variant is no longer a global concern. I remain bullish on stocks for the remaining 5 months of 2021 and am confident that the S&P 500 will close out the year higher than it is trading at today.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5435563,"gmtCreate":1628159711527,"gmtModify":1635159414911,"authorId":3582936698066263,"author":{"id":3582936698066263,"idStr":"3582936698066263","authorId":3582936698066263,"name":"aiyohyun","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5efe05924fc38dd8db647c314e32c5b2","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":899315957,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"ok","text":"ok","html":"ok"},{"id":5435590,"gmtCreate":1628160044884,"gmtModify":1635159412462,"authorId":3560893220281291,"author":{"id":3560893220281291,"idStr":"3560893220281291","authorId":3560893220281291,"name":"Ipster","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":899315957,"type":1,"supId":5435563,"prevId":0,"content":"Great","text":"Great","html":"Great"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":899312405,"gmtCreate":1628159685507,"gmtModify":1631891292424,"author":{"id":"3575927670533252","authorId":"3575927670533252","name":"schsch","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3575927670533252","idStr":"3575927670533252"},"htmlText":"help me like","listText":"help me like","text":"help me like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/899312405","repostId":1121866583,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121866583","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628158108,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1121866583?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-05 18:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What's Next For The S&P 500: 10% Pullback or Rolling Correction?<blockquote>标普500的下一步是什么：10%回调还是滚动修正？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121866583","media":"zacks","summary":"The market has become increasingly rational as this 16-month bull market matures, and index-based up","content":"The market has become increasingly rational as this 16-month bull market matures, and index-based upside potential dwindles every additional percentage they rally. This is a stock picker's market. Quality stocks in well-positioned sectors will have much higher upside potential than most index-tracking ETFs for the remainder of 2021.<blockquote>随着这16个月的牛市的成熟，市场变得越来越理性，基于指数的上涨潜力每增加一个百分比，就会减少。这是一个选股者的市场。在 2021 年剩余时间里，定位良好的行业中的优质股票将比大多数指数跟踪 ETF 具有更高的上涨潜力。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 hasn't seen a pullback of more than 5% so far this year and hasn't seen an actual correction (a pullback of 10% or more) since last September, which was quickly bought back up once that down 10% mark was reached. Despite this blue-chip benchmark not exhibiting any material sell-off, over 90% of its 505 components have experienced a 10% or larger correction in 2021 thus far.<blockquote>今年到目前为止，标普500的回调幅度还没有超过 5%，自去年 9 月以来也没有出现过实际的调整（回调 10% 或更多），一旦达到 10% 的下跌关口，该指数就很快被买回。尽管这个蓝筹股基准没有表现出任何材料抛售，但迄今为止，其 505 个组件中有超过 90% 在 2021 年经历了 10% 或更大的调整。</blockquote> Rotations In &amp; Out of Growth &amp; Value<blockquote>增长与价值的进出轮换</blockquote> Investors have kept the stock market's bull drive alive by rotating in and out of growth and value sectors as portfolio's position for the reopening at the beginning of the year, then turned back to growth stocks when the yield surge began to fade mid-May. This performance deviation is clearly illustrated below with Vanguard's growth-oriented ETF (VUG Quick QuoteVUG-Free Report) in the candlesticks and its value-focused ETF (VTV Quick QuoteVTV-Free Report) represented by the orange line.<blockquote>投资者通过在年初重新开盘时轮换进出成长型和价值型板块来保持股市的牛市势头，然后在5月中旬收益率飙升开始消退时又转向成长型股票。下面烛台中的 Vanguard 以增长为导向的 ETF (VUG Quick QuoteVUG-Free Report) 和以价值为导向的 ETF (VTV Quick QuoteVTV-Free Report) 清楚地说明了这种业绩偏差。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80d0680692ab8ada950167692164017e\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"408\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Image Source: TradingView<blockquote>图片来源：TradingView</blockquote> The year-to-date performance divergence between these two stock groupings illustrates that investors &amp; traders are not buying indiscriminately. Meaning that judgment is going into every trade decision (aka stock picking), causing the market to deflate overstretched areas and reallocate into relatively cheaper spaces.<blockquote>这两个股票组合今年迄今为止的表现差异表明，投资者和交易员并没有不分青红皂白地购买。这意味着这种判断会渗透到每一个交易决策（又名选股）中，导致市场收缩过度紧张的领域并重新分配到相对便宜的领域。</blockquote> Accelerating Annualized Returns<blockquote>加速年化回报</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 has remained above an extraordinary 75% annualized return trendline for over 16 months now. Unfortunately, this rate of return isn't even close to sustainable.<blockquote>16 个月来，标普500一直保持在 75% 的年化回报率趋势线之上。不幸的是，这种回报率甚至远未达到可持续水平。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 has averaged 12% upside a year over the past 3 decades. However, the average annual growth rate has aged like fine wine. This blue-chip benchmark has demonstrated an average annualized return of nearly 15% over the past decade, and if narrowed down to just the last 5 years, those annual gains go up to over 16%.<blockquote>过去 30 年来，标普500平均每年上涨 12%。然而，年均增长率却像美酒一样陈年。这一蓝筹股基准在过去十年中的平均年化回报率接近 15%，如果缩小到过去 5 年，这些年收益将超过 16%。</blockquote> The stock market is experiencing swelling average annual gains because of the rapid acceleration of technology that continuously accelerates companies' and our economy's growth outlook. I expect to see continued annualized return acceleration over the next decade as tech makes up a growing portion of the public equity market. Nevertheless, a rolling 75% annualized return out of the S&amp;P 500 isn't viable.<blockquote>由于技术的快速发展不断加速公司和我们经济的增长前景，股市正在经历不断膨胀的年均涨幅。随着科技在公共股票市场中所占份额越来越大，我预计未来十年年化回报率将继续加速。然而，标普500滚动 75% 的年化回报率是不可行的。</blockquote> There may be too much sideline capital (a record 5.5 trillion in money market funds, according to Goldman Sachs (GS Quick QuoteGS-Free Report) for the market to entirely correct. Still, we are due for consolidation over the next few months, aka a rolling correction.<blockquote>可能有太多的边际资本（根据高盛（GS Quick QuoteGS-Free Report）的数据，货币市场基金达到创纪录的5.5万亿美元，市场无法完全纠正。尽管如此，我们仍将在未来几个月进行整合，也就是滚动调整。</blockquote> We are now entering a pivotal point in this maturing market cycle. Q2 earnings season has been tremendous thus far, with earnings soaring 105% on sales up over 22% from a year ago. 91% of the reported companies beating EPS estimates, and over 86% beat top-line projections. The richly valued tech sector has demonstrated awe-inspiring Q2 results, with 100% of them exceeding EPS estimates and over 96% beating on revenues, which seemingly justified frothy valuations in the space.<blockquote>我们现在正进入这个成熟市场周期的关键点。到目前为止，第二季度财报季表现非常出色，盈利飙升 105%，销售额同比增长 22% 以上。91% 的报告公司超出了每股收益预期，超过 86% 的公司超出了营收预测。估值极高的科技行业第二季度业绩令人敬畏，其中 100% 的业绩超出了每股收益预期，超过 96% 的业绩超出了收入预期，这似乎证明了该领域的泡沫估值是合理的。</blockquote> However, analysts are projecting peak earnings growth to be in the rear-view mirror as Q2 earnings season wraps up, and at these rich multiples, valuation compression may be in order. Even with these exceptional quarterly reports and growing full-year estimates, we have seen an undue level of profit-pulling and defensive market positioning. The resurging COVID fears and anticipated shift in monetary policy also weigh on bullish sentiment.<blockquote>然而，分析师预计，随着第二季度财报季的结束，盈利增长峰值将成为过去，在这些丰富的市盈率下，估值可能会压缩。即使有这些出色的季度报告和不断增长的全年预期，我们也看到了过度的利润拉动和防御性市场定位。新冠疫情担忧的死灰复燃和货币政策的预期转变也打压了看涨情绪。</blockquote> Nevertheless, the enormous amount of cash on the bench is still being put to work, with every marginal dip being bought right back up. The national consumer savings rate in the US sits sizably above the last decade's average. Americans are not only participating in the public equity market at a record rate, but they also have plenty of liquidity to keep buying their favorite stocks.<blockquote>尽管如此，板凳上的巨额现金仍在发挥作用，每一次边际下跌都会被买回。美国全国消费者储蓄率远高于过去十年的平均水平。美国人不仅以创纪录的速度参与公共股权市场，而且他们还有充足的流动性来继续购买他们喜欢的股票。</blockquote> Stocks remain the most attractive asset class, with negative real interest rates in the bond market, sky-high commodity prices, highly volatile crypto prices, and pricing pressure that most publicly traded companies have been able to easily transfer to their end-markets (illustrated by Q2 margin results).<blockquote>股票仍然是最具吸引力的资产类别，债券市场的负实际利率、天价商品价格、高度波动的加密货币价格以及大多数上市公司能够轻松转移到终端市场的定价压力（第二季度利润率结果说明）。</blockquote> I expect to see a rolling correction, reflected by a consolidating stock market, instead of this 10%+ correction that analysts have been postulating. Range-bound indexes(less than 10% swings) for some time (month or two) would have the same valuation compressing effect as an all-out correction because earnings would be growing while prices remain muted, leading to shrinking P/E multiples (aka rolling correction).<blockquote>我预计会看到股市盘整所反映的滚动调整，而不是分析师一直假设的 10% 以上的调整。在一段时间（一两个月）内（波动小于 10%）的区间指数（波动小于 10%）会产生与全面修正相同的估值压缩效果，因为收益会增长，而价格保持低迷，导致市盈率缩小（又名滚动修正）。</blockquote> I foresee a sideways broader market trade until the Delta-variant is no longer a global concern. I remain bullish on stocks for the remaining 5 months of 2021 and am confident that the S&amp;P 500 will close out the year higher than it is trading at today.<blockquote>我预计市场交易将横盘整理，直到Delta变体不再是全球关注的问题。在2021年剩余的5个月里，我仍然看好股市，并相信标普500将以高于今天的交易价格结束这一年。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What's Next For The S&P 500: 10% Pullback or Rolling Correction?<blockquote>标普500的下一步是什么：10%回调还是滚动修正？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat's Next For The S&P 500: 10% Pullback or Rolling Correction?<blockquote>标普500的下一步是什么：10%回调还是滚动修正？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzacks2021-08-05 18:08\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe market has become increasingly rational as this 16-month bull market matures, and index-based upside potential dwindles every additional percentage they rally. This is a stock picker's market. Quality stocks in well-positioned sectors will have much higher upside potential than most index-tracking ETFs for the remainder of 2021.<blockquote>随着这16个月的牛市的成熟，市场变得越来越理性，基于指数的上涨潜力每增加一个百分比，就会减少。这是一个选股者的市场。在 2021 年剩余时间里，定位良好的行业中的优质股票将比大多数指数跟踪 ETF 具有更高的上涨潜力。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 hasn't seen a pullback of more than 5% so far this year and hasn't seen an actual correction (a pullback of 10% or more) since last September, which was quickly bought back up once that down 10% mark was reached. Despite this blue-chip benchmark not exhibiting any material sell-off, over 90% of its 505 components have experienced a 10% or larger correction in 2021 thus far.<blockquote>今年到目前为止，标普500的回调幅度还没有超过 5%，自去年 9 月以来也没有出现过实际的调整（回调 10% 或更多），一旦达到 10% 的下跌关口，该指数就很快被买回。尽管这个蓝筹股基准没有表现出任何材料抛售，但迄今为止，其 505 个组件中有超过 90% 在 2021 年经历了 10% 或更大的调整。</blockquote> Rotations In &amp; Out of Growth &amp; Value<blockquote>增长与价值的进出轮换</blockquote> Investors have kept the stock market's bull drive alive by rotating in and out of growth and value sectors as portfolio's position for the reopening at the beginning of the year, then turned back to growth stocks when the yield surge began to fade mid-May. This performance deviation is clearly illustrated below with Vanguard's growth-oriented ETF (VUG Quick QuoteVUG-Free Report) in the candlesticks and its value-focused ETF (VTV Quick QuoteVTV-Free Report) represented by the orange line.<blockquote>投资者通过在年初重新开盘时轮换进出成长型和价值型板块来保持股市的牛市势头，然后在5月中旬收益率飙升开始消退时又转向成长型股票。下面烛台中的 Vanguard 以增长为导向的 ETF (VUG Quick QuoteVUG-Free Report) 和以价值为导向的 ETF (VTV Quick QuoteVTV-Free Report) 清楚地说明了这种业绩偏差。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80d0680692ab8ada950167692164017e\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"408\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Image Source: TradingView<blockquote>图片来源：TradingView</blockquote> The year-to-date performance divergence between these two stock groupings illustrates that investors &amp; traders are not buying indiscriminately. Meaning that judgment is going into every trade decision (aka stock picking), causing the market to deflate overstretched areas and reallocate into relatively cheaper spaces.<blockquote>这两个股票组合今年迄今为止的表现差异表明，投资者和交易员并没有不分青红皂白地购买。这意味着这种判断会渗透到每一个交易决策（又名选股）中，导致市场收缩过度紧张的领域并重新分配到相对便宜的领域。</blockquote> Accelerating Annualized Returns<blockquote>加速年化回报</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 has remained above an extraordinary 75% annualized return trendline for over 16 months now. Unfortunately, this rate of return isn't even close to sustainable.<blockquote>16 个月来，标普500一直保持在 75% 的年化回报率趋势线之上。不幸的是，这种回报率甚至远未达到可持续水平。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 has averaged 12% upside a year over the past 3 decades. However, the average annual growth rate has aged like fine wine. This blue-chip benchmark has demonstrated an average annualized return of nearly 15% over the past decade, and if narrowed down to just the last 5 years, those annual gains go up to over 16%.<blockquote>过去 30 年来，标普500平均每年上涨 12%。然而，年均增长率却像美酒一样陈年。这一蓝筹股基准在过去十年中的平均年化回报率接近 15%，如果缩小到过去 5 年，这些年收益将超过 16%。</blockquote> The stock market is experiencing swelling average annual gains because of the rapid acceleration of technology that continuously accelerates companies' and our economy's growth outlook. I expect to see continued annualized return acceleration over the next decade as tech makes up a growing portion of the public equity market. Nevertheless, a rolling 75% annualized return out of the S&amp;P 500 isn't viable.<blockquote>由于技术的快速发展不断加速公司和我们经济的增长前景，股市正在经历不断膨胀的年均涨幅。随着科技在公共股票市场中所占份额越来越大，我预计未来十年年化回报率将继续加速。然而，标普500滚动 75% 的年化回报率是不可行的。</blockquote> There may be too much sideline capital (a record 5.5 trillion in money market funds, according to Goldman Sachs (GS Quick QuoteGS-Free Report) for the market to entirely correct. Still, we are due for consolidation over the next few months, aka a rolling correction.<blockquote>可能有太多的边际资本（根据高盛（GS Quick QuoteGS-Free Report）的数据，货币市场基金达到创纪录的5.5万亿美元，市场无法完全纠正。尽管如此，我们仍将在未来几个月进行整合，也就是滚动调整。</blockquote> We are now entering a pivotal point in this maturing market cycle. Q2 earnings season has been tremendous thus far, with earnings soaring 105% on sales up over 22% from a year ago. 91% of the reported companies beating EPS estimates, and over 86% beat top-line projections. The richly valued tech sector has demonstrated awe-inspiring Q2 results, with 100% of them exceeding EPS estimates and over 96% beating on revenues, which seemingly justified frothy valuations in the space.<blockquote>我们现在正进入这个成熟市场周期的关键点。到目前为止，第二季度财报季表现非常出色，盈利飙升 105%，销售额同比增长 22% 以上。91% 的报告公司超出了每股收益预期，超过 86% 的公司超出了营收预测。估值极高的科技行业第二季度业绩令人敬畏，其中 100% 的业绩超出了每股收益预期，超过 96% 的业绩超出了收入预期，这似乎证明了该领域的泡沫估值是合理的。</blockquote> However, analysts are projecting peak earnings growth to be in the rear-view mirror as Q2 earnings season wraps up, and at these rich multiples, valuation compression may be in order. Even with these exceptional quarterly reports and growing full-year estimates, we have seen an undue level of profit-pulling and defensive market positioning. The resurging COVID fears and anticipated shift in monetary policy also weigh on bullish sentiment.<blockquote>然而，分析师预计，随着第二季度财报季的结束，盈利增长峰值将成为过去，在这些丰富的市盈率下，估值可能会压缩。即使有这些出色的季度报告和不断增长的全年预期，我们也看到了过度的利润拉动和防御性市场定位。新冠疫情担忧的死灰复燃和货币政策的预期转变也打压了看涨情绪。</blockquote> Nevertheless, the enormous amount of cash on the bench is still being put to work, with every marginal dip being bought right back up. The national consumer savings rate in the US sits sizably above the last decade's average. Americans are not only participating in the public equity market at a record rate, but they also have plenty of liquidity to keep buying their favorite stocks.<blockquote>尽管如此，板凳上的巨额现金仍在发挥作用，每一次边际下跌都会被买回。美国全国消费者储蓄率远高于过去十年的平均水平。美国人不仅以创纪录的速度参与公共股权市场，而且他们还有充足的流动性来继续购买他们喜欢的股票。</blockquote> Stocks remain the most attractive asset class, with negative real interest rates in the bond market, sky-high commodity prices, highly volatile crypto prices, and pricing pressure that most publicly traded companies have been able to easily transfer to their end-markets (illustrated by Q2 margin results).<blockquote>股票仍然是最具吸引力的资产类别，债券市场的负实际利率、天价商品价格、高度波动的加密货币价格以及大多数上市公司能够轻松转移到终端市场的定价压力（第二季度利润率结果说明）。</blockquote> I expect to see a rolling correction, reflected by a consolidating stock market, instead of this 10%+ correction that analysts have been postulating. Range-bound indexes(less than 10% swings) for some time (month or two) would have the same valuation compressing effect as an all-out correction because earnings would be growing while prices remain muted, leading to shrinking P/E multiples (aka rolling correction).<blockquote>我预计会看到股市盘整所反映的滚动调整，而不是分析师一直假设的 10% 以上的调整。在一段时间（一两个月）内（波动小于 10%）的区间指数（波动小于 10%）会产生与全面修正相同的估值压缩效果，因为收益会增长，而价格保持低迷，导致市盈率缩小（又名滚动修正）。</blockquote> I foresee a sideways broader market trade until the Delta-variant is no longer a global concern. I remain bullish on stocks for the remaining 5 months of 2021 and am confident that the S&amp;P 500 will close out the year higher than it is trading at today.<blockquote>我预计市场交易将横盘整理，直到Delta变体不再是全球关注的问题。在2021年剩余的5个月里，我仍然看好股市，并相信标普500将以高于今天的交易价格结束这一年。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zacks.com/commentary/1773639/whats-next-for-the-sp-500-10-pullback-or-rolling-correction?&art_rec=home-home-investment_ideas_stocks-ID09-txt-1278004\">zacks</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zacks.com/commentary/1773639/whats-next-for-the-sp-500-10-pullback-or-rolling-correction?&art_rec=home-home-investment_ideas_stocks-ID09-txt-1278004","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121866583","content_text":"The market has become increasingly rational as this 16-month bull market matures, and index-based upside potential dwindles every additional percentage they rally. This is a stock picker's market. Quality stocks in well-positioned sectors will have much higher upside potential than most index-tracking ETFs for the remainder of 2021.\nThe S&P 500 hasn't seen a pullback of more than 5% so far this year and hasn't seen an actual correction (a pullback of 10% or more) since last September, which was quickly bought back up once that down 10% mark was reached. Despite this blue-chip benchmark not exhibiting any material sell-off, over 90% of its 505 components have experienced a 10% or larger correction in 2021 thus far.\nRotations In & Out of Growth & Value\nInvestors have kept the stock market's bull drive alive by rotating in and out of growth and value sectors as portfolio's position for the reopening at the beginning of the year, then turned back to growth stocks when the yield surge began to fade mid-May. This performance deviation is clearly illustrated below with Vanguard's growth-oriented ETF (VUG Quick QuoteVUG-Free Report) in the candlesticks and its value-focused ETF (VTV Quick QuoteVTV-Free Report) represented by the orange line.\n\nImage Source: TradingView\nThe year-to-date performance divergence between these two stock groupings illustrates that investors & traders are not buying indiscriminately. Meaning that judgment is going into every trade decision (aka stock picking), causing the market to deflate overstretched areas and reallocate into relatively cheaper spaces.\nAccelerating Annualized Returns\nThe S&P 500 has remained above an extraordinary 75% annualized return trendline for over 16 months now. Unfortunately, this rate of return isn't even close to sustainable.\nThe S&P 500 has averaged 12% upside a year over the past 3 decades. However, the average annual growth rate has aged like fine wine. This blue-chip benchmark has demonstrated an average annualized return of nearly 15% over the past decade, and if narrowed down to just the last 5 years, those annual gains go up to over 16%.\nThe stock market is experiencing swelling average annual gains because of the rapid acceleration of technology that continuously accelerates companies' and our economy's growth outlook. I expect to see continued annualized return acceleration over the next decade as tech makes up a growing portion of the public equity market. Nevertheless, a rolling 75% annualized return out of the S&P 500 isn't viable.\nThere may be too much sideline capital (a record 5.5 trillion in money market funds, according to Goldman Sachs (GS Quick QuoteGS-Free Report) for the market to entirely correct. Still, we are due for consolidation over the next few months, aka a rolling correction.\nWe are now entering a pivotal point in this maturing market cycle. Q2 earnings season has been tremendous thus far, with earnings soaring 105% on sales up over 22% from a year ago. 91% of the reported companies beating EPS estimates, and over 86% beat top-line projections. The richly valued tech sector has demonstrated awe-inspiring Q2 results, with 100% of them exceeding EPS estimates and over 96% beating on revenues, which seemingly justified frothy valuations in the space.\nHowever, analysts are projecting peak earnings growth to be in the rear-view mirror as Q2 earnings season wraps up, and at these rich multiples, valuation compression may be in order. Even with these exceptional quarterly reports and growing full-year estimates, we have seen an undue level of profit-pulling and defensive market positioning. The resurging COVID fears and anticipated shift in monetary policy also weigh on bullish sentiment.\nNevertheless, the enormous amount of cash on the bench is still being put to work, with every marginal dip being bought right back up. The national consumer savings rate in the US sits sizably above the last decade's average. Americans are not only participating in the public equity market at a record rate, but they also have plenty of liquidity to keep buying their favorite stocks.\nStocks remain the most attractive asset class, with negative real interest rates in the bond market, sky-high commodity prices, highly volatile crypto prices, and pricing pressure that most publicly traded companies have been able to easily transfer to their end-markets (illustrated by Q2 margin results).\nI expect to see a rolling correction, reflected by a consolidating stock market, instead of this 10%+ correction that analysts have been postulating. Range-bound indexes(less than 10% swings) for some time (month or two) would have the same valuation compressing effect as an all-out correction because earnings would be growing while prices remain muted, leading to shrinking P/E multiples (aka rolling correction).\nI foresee a sideways broader market trade until the Delta-variant is no longer a global concern. I remain bullish on stocks for the remaining 5 months of 2021 and am confident that the S&P 500 will close out the year higher than it is trading at today.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5435597,"gmtCreate":1628160157424,"gmtModify":1635159411727,"authorId":3576051773113837,"author":{"id":3576051773113837,"idStr":"3576051773113837","authorId":3576051773113837,"name":"EV97","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7c5abc0090a7661479c5bde2eeab0c5","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":899312405,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Ok","text":"Ok","html":"Ok"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":899312845,"gmtCreate":1628159664987,"gmtModify":1631891292437,"author":{"id":"3575927670533252","authorId":"3575927670533252","name":"schsch","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3575927670533252","idStr":"3575927670533252"},"htmlText":"can i have a like","listText":"can i have a like","text":"can i have a like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/899312845","repostId":1121866583,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121866583","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628158108,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1121866583?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-05 18:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What's Next For The S&P 500: 10% Pullback or Rolling Correction?<blockquote>标普500的下一步是什么：10%回调还是滚动修正？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121866583","media":"zacks","summary":"The market has become increasingly rational as this 16-month bull market matures, and index-based up","content":"The market has become increasingly rational as this 16-month bull market matures, and index-based upside potential dwindles every additional percentage they rally. This is a stock picker's market. Quality stocks in well-positioned sectors will have much higher upside potential than most index-tracking ETFs for the remainder of 2021.<blockquote>随着这16个月的牛市的成熟，市场变得越来越理性，基于指数的上涨潜力每增加一个百分比，就会减少。这是一个选股者的市场。在 2021 年剩余时间里，定位良好的行业中的优质股票将比大多数指数跟踪 ETF 具有更高的上涨潜力。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 hasn't seen a pullback of more than 5% so far this year and hasn't seen an actual correction (a pullback of 10% or more) since last September, which was quickly bought back up once that down 10% mark was reached. Despite this blue-chip benchmark not exhibiting any material sell-off, over 90% of its 505 components have experienced a 10% or larger correction in 2021 thus far.<blockquote>今年到目前为止，标普500的回调幅度还没有超过 5%，自去年 9 月以来也没有出现过实际的调整（回调 10% 或更多），一旦达到 10% 的下跌关口，该指数就很快被买回。尽管这个蓝筹股基准没有表现出任何材料抛售，但迄今为止，其 505 个组件中有超过 90% 在 2021 年经历了 10% 或更大的调整。</blockquote> Rotations In &amp; Out of Growth &amp; Value<blockquote>增长与价值的进出轮换</blockquote> Investors have kept the stock market's bull drive alive by rotating in and out of growth and value sectors as portfolio's position for the reopening at the beginning of the year, then turned back to growth stocks when the yield surge began to fade mid-May. This performance deviation is clearly illustrated below with Vanguard's growth-oriented ETF (VUG Quick QuoteVUG-Free Report) in the candlesticks and its value-focused ETF (VTV Quick QuoteVTV-Free Report) represented by the orange line.<blockquote>投资者通过在年初重新开盘时轮换进出成长型和价值型板块来保持股市的牛市势头，然后在5月中旬收益率飙升开始消退时又转向成长型股票。下面烛台中的 Vanguard 以增长为导向的 ETF (VUG Quick QuoteVUG-Free Report) 和以价值为导向的 ETF (VTV Quick QuoteVTV-Free Report) 清楚地说明了这种业绩偏差。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80d0680692ab8ada950167692164017e\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"408\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Image Source: TradingView<blockquote>图片来源：TradingView</blockquote> The year-to-date performance divergence between these two stock groupings illustrates that investors &amp; traders are not buying indiscriminately. Meaning that judgment is going into every trade decision (aka stock picking), causing the market to deflate overstretched areas and reallocate into relatively cheaper spaces.<blockquote>这两个股票组合今年迄今为止的表现差异表明，投资者和交易员并没有不分青红皂白地购买。这意味着这种判断会渗透到每一个交易决策（又名选股）中，导致市场收缩过度紧张的领域并重新分配到相对便宜的领域。</blockquote> Accelerating Annualized Returns<blockquote>加速年化回报</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 has remained above an extraordinary 75% annualized return trendline for over 16 months now. Unfortunately, this rate of return isn't even close to sustainable.<blockquote>16 个月来，标普500一直保持在 75% 的年化回报率趋势线之上。不幸的是，这种回报率甚至远未达到可持续水平。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 has averaged 12% upside a year over the past 3 decades. However, the average annual growth rate has aged like fine wine. This blue-chip benchmark has demonstrated an average annualized return of nearly 15% over the past decade, and if narrowed down to just the last 5 years, those annual gains go up to over 16%.<blockquote>过去 30 年来，标普500平均每年上涨 12%。然而，年均增长率却像美酒一样陈年。这一蓝筹股基准在过去十年中的平均年化回报率接近 15%，如果缩小到过去 5 年，这些年收益将超过 16%。</blockquote> The stock market is experiencing swelling average annual gains because of the rapid acceleration of technology that continuously accelerates companies' and our economy's growth outlook. I expect to see continued annualized return acceleration over the next decade as tech makes up a growing portion of the public equity market. Nevertheless, a rolling 75% annualized return out of the S&amp;P 500 isn't viable.<blockquote>由于技术的快速发展不断加速公司和我们经济的增长前景，股市正在经历不断膨胀的年均涨幅。随着科技在公共股票市场中所占份额越来越大，我预计未来十年年化回报率将继续加速。然而，标普500滚动 75% 的年化回报率是不可行的。</blockquote> There may be too much sideline capital (a record 5.5 trillion in money market funds, according to Goldman Sachs (GS Quick QuoteGS-Free Report) for the market to entirely correct. Still, we are due for consolidation over the next few months, aka a rolling correction.<blockquote>可能有太多的边际资本（根据高盛（GS Quick QuoteGS-Free Report）的数据，货币市场基金达到创纪录的5.5万亿美元，市场无法完全纠正。尽管如此，我们仍将在未来几个月进行整合，也就是滚动调整。</blockquote> We are now entering a pivotal point in this maturing market cycle. Q2 earnings season has been tremendous thus far, with earnings soaring 105% on sales up over 22% from a year ago. 91% of the reported companies beating EPS estimates, and over 86% beat top-line projections. The richly valued tech sector has demonstrated awe-inspiring Q2 results, with 100% of them exceeding EPS estimates and over 96% beating on revenues, which seemingly justified frothy valuations in the space.<blockquote>我们现在正进入这个成熟市场周期的关键点。到目前为止，第二季度财报季表现非常出色，盈利飙升 105%，销售额同比增长 22% 以上。91% 的报告公司超出了每股收益预期，超过 86% 的公司超出了营收预测。估值极高的科技行业第二季度业绩令人敬畏，其中 100% 的业绩超出了每股收益预期，超过 96% 的业绩超出了收入预期，这似乎证明了该领域的泡沫估值是合理的。</blockquote> However, analysts are projecting peak earnings growth to be in the rear-view mirror as Q2 earnings season wraps up, and at these rich multiples, valuation compression may be in order. Even with these exceptional quarterly reports and growing full-year estimates, we have seen an undue level of profit-pulling and defensive market positioning. The resurging COVID fears and anticipated shift in monetary policy also weigh on bullish sentiment.<blockquote>然而，分析师预计，随着第二季度财报季的结束，盈利增长峰值将成为过去，在这些丰富的市盈率下，估值可能会压缩。即使有这些出色的季度报告和不断增长的全年预期，我们也看到了过度的利润拉动和防御性市场定位。新冠疫情担忧的死灰复燃和货币政策的预期转变也打压了看涨情绪。</blockquote> Nevertheless, the enormous amount of cash on the bench is still being put to work, with every marginal dip being bought right back up. The national consumer savings rate in the US sits sizably above the last decade's average. Americans are not only participating in the public equity market at a record rate, but they also have plenty of liquidity to keep buying their favorite stocks.<blockquote>尽管如此，板凳上的巨额现金仍在发挥作用，每一次边际下跌都会被买回。美国全国消费者储蓄率远高于过去十年的平均水平。美国人不仅以创纪录的速度参与公共股权市场，而且他们还有充足的流动性来继续购买他们喜欢的股票。</blockquote> Stocks remain the most attractive asset class, with negative real interest rates in the bond market, sky-high commodity prices, highly volatile crypto prices, and pricing pressure that most publicly traded companies have been able to easily transfer to their end-markets (illustrated by Q2 margin results).<blockquote>股票仍然是最具吸引力的资产类别，债券市场的负实际利率、天价商品价格、高度波动的加密货币价格以及大多数上市公司能够轻松转移到终端市场的定价压力（第二季度利润率结果说明）。</blockquote> I expect to see a rolling correction, reflected by a consolidating stock market, instead of this 10%+ correction that analysts have been postulating. Range-bound indexes(less than 10% swings) for some time (month or two) would have the same valuation compressing effect as an all-out correction because earnings would be growing while prices remain muted, leading to shrinking P/E multiples (aka rolling correction).<blockquote>我预计会看到股市盘整所反映的滚动调整，而不是分析师一直假设的 10% 以上的调整。在一段时间（一两个月）内（波动小于 10%）的区间指数（波动小于 10%）会产生与全面修正相同的估值压缩效果，因为收益会增长，而价格保持低迷，导致市盈率缩小（又名滚动修正）。</blockquote> I foresee a sideways broader market trade until the Delta-variant is no longer a global concern. I remain bullish on stocks for the remaining 5 months of 2021 and am confident that the S&amp;P 500 will close out the year higher than it is trading at today.<blockquote>我预计市场交易将横盘整理，直到Delta变体不再是全球关注的问题。在2021年剩余的5个月里，我仍然看好股市，并相信标普500将以高于今天的交易价格结束这一年。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What's Next For The S&P 500: 10% Pullback or Rolling Correction?<blockquote>标普500的下一步是什么：10%回调还是滚动修正？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat's Next For The S&P 500: 10% Pullback or Rolling Correction?<blockquote>标普500的下一步是什么：10%回调还是滚动修正？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzacks2021-08-05 18:08\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe market has become increasingly rational as this 16-month bull market matures, and index-based upside potential dwindles every additional percentage they rally. This is a stock picker's market. Quality stocks in well-positioned sectors will have much higher upside potential than most index-tracking ETFs for the remainder of 2021.<blockquote>随着这16个月的牛市的成熟，市场变得越来越理性，基于指数的上涨潜力每增加一个百分比，就会减少。这是一个选股者的市场。在 2021 年剩余时间里，定位良好的行业中的优质股票将比大多数指数跟踪 ETF 具有更高的上涨潜力。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 hasn't seen a pullback of more than 5% so far this year and hasn't seen an actual correction (a pullback of 10% or more) since last September, which was quickly bought back up once that down 10% mark was reached. Despite this blue-chip benchmark not exhibiting any material sell-off, over 90% of its 505 components have experienced a 10% or larger correction in 2021 thus far.<blockquote>今年到目前为止，标普500的回调幅度还没有超过 5%，自去年 9 月以来也没有出现过实际的调整（回调 10% 或更多），一旦达到 10% 的下跌关口，该指数就很快被买回。尽管这个蓝筹股基准没有表现出任何材料抛售，但迄今为止，其 505 个组件中有超过 90% 在 2021 年经历了 10% 或更大的调整。</blockquote> Rotations In &amp; Out of Growth &amp; Value<blockquote>增长与价值的进出轮换</blockquote> Investors have kept the stock market's bull drive alive by rotating in and out of growth and value sectors as portfolio's position for the reopening at the beginning of the year, then turned back to growth stocks when the yield surge began to fade mid-May. This performance deviation is clearly illustrated below with Vanguard's growth-oriented ETF (VUG Quick QuoteVUG-Free Report) in the candlesticks and its value-focused ETF (VTV Quick QuoteVTV-Free Report) represented by the orange line.<blockquote>投资者通过在年初重新开盘时轮换进出成长型和价值型板块来保持股市的牛市势头，然后在5月中旬收益率飙升开始消退时又转向成长型股票。下面烛台中的 Vanguard 以增长为导向的 ETF (VUG Quick QuoteVUG-Free Report) 和以价值为导向的 ETF (VTV Quick QuoteVTV-Free Report) 清楚地说明了这种业绩偏差。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80d0680692ab8ada950167692164017e\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"408\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Image Source: TradingView<blockquote>图片来源：TradingView</blockquote> The year-to-date performance divergence between these two stock groupings illustrates that investors &amp; traders are not buying indiscriminately. Meaning that judgment is going into every trade decision (aka stock picking), causing the market to deflate overstretched areas and reallocate into relatively cheaper spaces.<blockquote>这两个股票组合今年迄今为止的表现差异表明，投资者和交易员并没有不分青红皂白地购买。这意味着这种判断会渗透到每一个交易决策（又名选股）中，导致市场收缩过度紧张的领域并重新分配到相对便宜的领域。</blockquote> Accelerating Annualized Returns<blockquote>加速年化回报</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 has remained above an extraordinary 75% annualized return trendline for over 16 months now. Unfortunately, this rate of return isn't even close to sustainable.<blockquote>16 个月来，标普500一直保持在 75% 的年化回报率趋势线之上。不幸的是，这种回报率甚至远未达到可持续水平。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 has averaged 12% upside a year over the past 3 decades. However, the average annual growth rate has aged like fine wine. This blue-chip benchmark has demonstrated an average annualized return of nearly 15% over the past decade, and if narrowed down to just the last 5 years, those annual gains go up to over 16%.<blockquote>过去 30 年来，标普500平均每年上涨 12%。然而，年均增长率却像美酒一样陈年。这一蓝筹股基准在过去十年中的平均年化回报率接近 15%，如果缩小到过去 5 年，这些年收益将超过 16%。</blockquote> The stock market is experiencing swelling average annual gains because of the rapid acceleration of technology that continuously accelerates companies' and our economy's growth outlook. I expect to see continued annualized return acceleration over the next decade as tech makes up a growing portion of the public equity market. Nevertheless, a rolling 75% annualized return out of the S&amp;P 500 isn't viable.<blockquote>由于技术的快速发展不断加速公司和我们经济的增长前景，股市正在经历不断膨胀的年均涨幅。随着科技在公共股票市场中所占份额越来越大，我预计未来十年年化回报率将继续加速。然而，标普500滚动 75% 的年化回报率是不可行的。</blockquote> There may be too much sideline capital (a record 5.5 trillion in money market funds, according to Goldman Sachs (GS Quick QuoteGS-Free Report) for the market to entirely correct. Still, we are due for consolidation over the next few months, aka a rolling correction.<blockquote>可能有太多的边际资本（根据高盛（GS Quick QuoteGS-Free Report）的数据，货币市场基金达到创纪录的5.5万亿美元，市场无法完全纠正。尽管如此，我们仍将在未来几个月进行整合，也就是滚动调整。</blockquote> We are now entering a pivotal point in this maturing market cycle. Q2 earnings season has been tremendous thus far, with earnings soaring 105% on sales up over 22% from a year ago. 91% of the reported companies beating EPS estimates, and over 86% beat top-line projections. The richly valued tech sector has demonstrated awe-inspiring Q2 results, with 100% of them exceeding EPS estimates and over 96% beating on revenues, which seemingly justified frothy valuations in the space.<blockquote>我们现在正进入这个成熟市场周期的关键点。到目前为止，第二季度财报季表现非常出色，盈利飙升 105%，销售额同比增长 22% 以上。91% 的报告公司超出了每股收益预期，超过 86% 的公司超出了营收预测。估值极高的科技行业第二季度业绩令人敬畏，其中 100% 的业绩超出了每股收益预期，超过 96% 的业绩超出了收入预期，这似乎证明了该领域的泡沫估值是合理的。</blockquote> However, analysts are projecting peak earnings growth to be in the rear-view mirror as Q2 earnings season wraps up, and at these rich multiples, valuation compression may be in order. Even with these exceptional quarterly reports and growing full-year estimates, we have seen an undue level of profit-pulling and defensive market positioning. The resurging COVID fears and anticipated shift in monetary policy also weigh on bullish sentiment.<blockquote>然而，分析师预计，随着第二季度财报季的结束，盈利增长峰值将成为过去，在这些丰富的市盈率下，估值可能会压缩。即使有这些出色的季度报告和不断增长的全年预期，我们也看到了过度的利润拉动和防御性市场定位。新冠疫情担忧的死灰复燃和货币政策的预期转变也打压了看涨情绪。</blockquote> Nevertheless, the enormous amount of cash on the bench is still being put to work, with every marginal dip being bought right back up. The national consumer savings rate in the US sits sizably above the last decade's average. Americans are not only participating in the public equity market at a record rate, but they also have plenty of liquidity to keep buying their favorite stocks.<blockquote>尽管如此，板凳上的巨额现金仍在发挥作用，每一次边际下跌都会被买回。美国全国消费者储蓄率远高于过去十年的平均水平。美国人不仅以创纪录的速度参与公共股权市场，而且他们还有充足的流动性来继续购买他们喜欢的股票。</blockquote> Stocks remain the most attractive asset class, with negative real interest rates in the bond market, sky-high commodity prices, highly volatile crypto prices, and pricing pressure that most publicly traded companies have been able to easily transfer to their end-markets (illustrated by Q2 margin results).<blockquote>股票仍然是最具吸引力的资产类别，债券市场的负实际利率、天价商品价格、高度波动的加密货币价格以及大多数上市公司能够轻松转移到终端市场的定价压力（第二季度利润率结果说明）。</blockquote> I expect to see a rolling correction, reflected by a consolidating stock market, instead of this 10%+ correction that analysts have been postulating. Range-bound indexes(less than 10% swings) for some time (month or two) would have the same valuation compressing effect as an all-out correction because earnings would be growing while prices remain muted, leading to shrinking P/E multiples (aka rolling correction).<blockquote>我预计会看到股市盘整所反映的滚动调整，而不是分析师一直假设的 10% 以上的调整。在一段时间（一两个月）内（波动小于 10%）的区间指数（波动小于 10%）会产生与全面修正相同的估值压缩效果，因为收益会增长，而价格保持低迷，导致市盈率缩小（又名滚动修正）。</blockquote> I foresee a sideways broader market trade until the Delta-variant is no longer a global concern. I remain bullish on stocks for the remaining 5 months of 2021 and am confident that the S&amp;P 500 will close out the year higher than it is trading at today.<blockquote>我预计市场交易将横盘整理，直到Delta变体不再是全球关注的问题。在2021年剩余的5个月里，我仍然看好股市，并相信标普500将以高于今天的交易价格结束这一年。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zacks.com/commentary/1773639/whats-next-for-the-sp-500-10-pullback-or-rolling-correction?&art_rec=home-home-investment_ideas_stocks-ID09-txt-1278004\">zacks</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zacks.com/commentary/1773639/whats-next-for-the-sp-500-10-pullback-or-rolling-correction?&art_rec=home-home-investment_ideas_stocks-ID09-txt-1278004","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121866583","content_text":"The market has become increasingly rational as this 16-month bull market matures, and index-based upside potential dwindles every additional percentage they rally. This is a stock picker's market. Quality stocks in well-positioned sectors will have much higher upside potential than most index-tracking ETFs for the remainder of 2021.\nThe S&P 500 hasn't seen a pullback of more than 5% so far this year and hasn't seen an actual correction (a pullback of 10% or more) since last September, which was quickly bought back up once that down 10% mark was reached. Despite this blue-chip benchmark not exhibiting any material sell-off, over 90% of its 505 components have experienced a 10% or larger correction in 2021 thus far.\nRotations In & Out of Growth & Value\nInvestors have kept the stock market's bull drive alive by rotating in and out of growth and value sectors as portfolio's position for the reopening at the beginning of the year, then turned back to growth stocks when the yield surge began to fade mid-May. This performance deviation is clearly illustrated below with Vanguard's growth-oriented ETF (VUG Quick QuoteVUG-Free Report) in the candlesticks and its value-focused ETF (VTV Quick QuoteVTV-Free Report) represented by the orange line.\n\nImage Source: TradingView\nThe year-to-date performance divergence between these two stock groupings illustrates that investors & traders are not buying indiscriminately. Meaning that judgment is going into every trade decision (aka stock picking), causing the market to deflate overstretched areas and reallocate into relatively cheaper spaces.\nAccelerating Annualized Returns\nThe S&P 500 has remained above an extraordinary 75% annualized return trendline for over 16 months now. Unfortunately, this rate of return isn't even close to sustainable.\nThe S&P 500 has averaged 12% upside a year over the past 3 decades. However, the average annual growth rate has aged like fine wine. This blue-chip benchmark has demonstrated an average annualized return of nearly 15% over the past decade, and if narrowed down to just the last 5 years, those annual gains go up to over 16%.\nThe stock market is experiencing swelling average annual gains because of the rapid acceleration of technology that continuously accelerates companies' and our economy's growth outlook. I expect to see continued annualized return acceleration over the next decade as tech makes up a growing portion of the public equity market. Nevertheless, a rolling 75% annualized return out of the S&P 500 isn't viable.\nThere may be too much sideline capital (a record 5.5 trillion in money market funds, according to Goldman Sachs (GS Quick QuoteGS-Free Report) for the market to entirely correct. Still, we are due for consolidation over the next few months, aka a rolling correction.\nWe are now entering a pivotal point in this maturing market cycle. Q2 earnings season has been tremendous thus far, with earnings soaring 105% on sales up over 22% from a year ago. 91% of the reported companies beating EPS estimates, and over 86% beat top-line projections. The richly valued tech sector has demonstrated awe-inspiring Q2 results, with 100% of them exceeding EPS estimates and over 96% beating on revenues, which seemingly justified frothy valuations in the space.\nHowever, analysts are projecting peak earnings growth to be in the rear-view mirror as Q2 earnings season wraps up, and at these rich multiples, valuation compression may be in order. Even with these exceptional quarterly reports and growing full-year estimates, we have seen an undue level of profit-pulling and defensive market positioning. The resurging COVID fears and anticipated shift in monetary policy also weigh on bullish sentiment.\nNevertheless, the enormous amount of cash on the bench is still being put to work, with every marginal dip being bought right back up. The national consumer savings rate in the US sits sizably above the last decade's average. Americans are not only participating in the public equity market at a record rate, but they also have plenty of liquidity to keep buying their favorite stocks.\nStocks remain the most attractive asset class, with negative real interest rates in the bond market, sky-high commodity prices, highly volatile crypto prices, and pricing pressure that most publicly traded companies have been able to easily transfer to their end-markets (illustrated by Q2 margin results).\nI expect to see a rolling correction, reflected by a consolidating stock market, instead of this 10%+ correction that analysts have been postulating. Range-bound indexes(less than 10% swings) for some time (month or two) would have the same valuation compressing effect as an all-out correction because earnings would be growing while prices remain muted, leading to shrinking P/E multiples (aka rolling correction).\nI foresee a sideways broader market trade until the Delta-variant is no longer a global concern. I remain bullish on stocks for the remaining 5 months of 2021 and am confident that the S&P 500 will close out the year higher than it is trading at today.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":899312098,"gmtCreate":1628159631314,"gmtModify":1633753071356,"author":{"id":"3558500464606684","authorId":"3558500464606684","name":"thesushimao","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53952a1b873d03c715d3711a2395a297","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3558500464606684","idStr":"3558500464606684"},"htmlText":"Wow pls like","listText":"Wow pls like","text":"Wow pls like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/899312098","repostId":1121866583,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121866583","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628158108,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1121866583?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-05 18:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What's Next For The S&P 500: 10% Pullback or Rolling Correction?<blockquote>标普500的下一步是什么：10%回调还是滚动修正？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121866583","media":"zacks","summary":"The market has become increasingly rational as this 16-month bull market matures, and index-based up","content":"The market has become increasingly rational as this 16-month bull market matures, and index-based upside potential dwindles every additional percentage they rally. This is a stock picker's market. Quality stocks in well-positioned sectors will have much higher upside potential than most index-tracking ETFs for the remainder of 2021.<blockquote>随着这16个月的牛市的成熟，市场变得越来越理性，基于指数的上涨潜力每增加一个百分比，就会减少。这是一个选股者的市场。在 2021 年剩余时间里，定位良好的行业中的优质股票将比大多数指数跟踪 ETF 具有更高的上涨潜力。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 hasn't seen a pullback of more than 5% so far this year and hasn't seen an actual correction (a pullback of 10% or more) since last September, which was quickly bought back up once that down 10% mark was reached. Despite this blue-chip benchmark not exhibiting any material sell-off, over 90% of its 505 components have experienced a 10% or larger correction in 2021 thus far.<blockquote>今年到目前为止，标普500的回调幅度还没有超过 5%，自去年 9 月以来也没有出现过实际的调整（回调 10% 或更多），一旦达到 10% 的下跌关口，该指数就很快被买回。尽管这个蓝筹股基准没有表现出任何材料抛售，但迄今为止，其 505 个组件中有超过 90% 在 2021 年经历了 10% 或更大的调整。</blockquote> Rotations In &amp; Out of Growth &amp; Value<blockquote>增长与价值的进出轮换</blockquote> Investors have kept the stock market's bull drive alive by rotating in and out of growth and value sectors as portfolio's position for the reopening at the beginning of the year, then turned back to growth stocks when the yield surge began to fade mid-May. This performance deviation is clearly illustrated below with Vanguard's growth-oriented ETF (VUG Quick QuoteVUG-Free Report) in the candlesticks and its value-focused ETF (VTV Quick QuoteVTV-Free Report) represented by the orange line.<blockquote>投资者通过在年初重新开盘时轮换进出成长型和价值型板块来保持股市的牛市势头，然后在5月中旬收益率飙升开始消退时又转向成长型股票。下面烛台中的 Vanguard 以增长为导向的 ETF (VUG Quick QuoteVUG-Free Report) 和以价值为导向的 ETF (VTV Quick QuoteVTV-Free Report) 清楚地说明了这种业绩偏差。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80d0680692ab8ada950167692164017e\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"408\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Image Source: TradingView<blockquote>图片来源：TradingView</blockquote> The year-to-date performance divergence between these two stock groupings illustrates that investors &amp; traders are not buying indiscriminately. Meaning that judgment is going into every trade decision (aka stock picking), causing the market to deflate overstretched areas and reallocate into relatively cheaper spaces.<blockquote>这两个股票组合今年迄今为止的表现差异表明，投资者和交易员并没有不分青红皂白地购买。这意味着这种判断会渗透到每一个交易决策（又名选股）中，导致市场收缩过度紧张的领域并重新分配到相对便宜的领域。</blockquote> Accelerating Annualized Returns<blockquote>加速年化回报</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 has remained above an extraordinary 75% annualized return trendline for over 16 months now. Unfortunately, this rate of return isn't even close to sustainable.<blockquote>16 个月来，标普500一直保持在 75% 的年化回报率趋势线之上。不幸的是，这种回报率甚至远未达到可持续水平。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 has averaged 12% upside a year over the past 3 decades. However, the average annual growth rate has aged like fine wine. This blue-chip benchmark has demonstrated an average annualized return of nearly 15% over the past decade, and if narrowed down to just the last 5 years, those annual gains go up to over 16%.<blockquote>过去 30 年来，标普500平均每年上涨 12%。然而，年均增长率却像美酒一样陈年。这一蓝筹股基准在过去十年中的平均年化回报率接近 15%，如果缩小到过去 5 年，这些年收益将超过 16%。</blockquote> The stock market is experiencing swelling average annual gains because of the rapid acceleration of technology that continuously accelerates companies' and our economy's growth outlook. I expect to see continued annualized return acceleration over the next decade as tech makes up a growing portion of the public equity market. Nevertheless, a rolling 75% annualized return out of the S&amp;P 500 isn't viable.<blockquote>由于技术的快速发展不断加速公司和我们经济的增长前景，股市正在经历不断膨胀的年均涨幅。随着科技在公共股票市场中所占份额越来越大，我预计未来十年年化回报率将继续加速。然而，标普500滚动 75% 的年化回报率是不可行的。</blockquote> There may be too much sideline capital (a record 5.5 trillion in money market funds, according to Goldman Sachs (GS Quick QuoteGS-Free Report) for the market to entirely correct. Still, we are due for consolidation over the next few months, aka a rolling correction.<blockquote>可能有太多的边际资本（根据高盛（GS Quick QuoteGS-Free Report）的数据，货币市场基金达到创纪录的5.5万亿美元，市场无法完全纠正。尽管如此，我们仍将在未来几个月进行整合，也就是滚动调整。</blockquote> We are now entering a pivotal point in this maturing market cycle. Q2 earnings season has been tremendous thus far, with earnings soaring 105% on sales up over 22% from a year ago. 91% of the reported companies beating EPS estimates, and over 86% beat top-line projections. The richly valued tech sector has demonstrated awe-inspiring Q2 results, with 100% of them exceeding EPS estimates and over 96% beating on revenues, which seemingly justified frothy valuations in the space.<blockquote>我们现在正进入这个成熟市场周期的关键点。到目前为止，第二季度财报季表现非常出色，盈利飙升 105%，销售额同比增长 22% 以上。91% 的报告公司超出了每股收益预期，超过 86% 的公司超出了营收预测。估值极高的科技行业第二季度业绩令人敬畏，其中 100% 的业绩超出了每股收益预期，超过 96% 的业绩超出了收入预期，这似乎证明了该领域的泡沫估值是合理的。</blockquote> However, analysts are projecting peak earnings growth to be in the rear-view mirror as Q2 earnings season wraps up, and at these rich multiples, valuation compression may be in order. Even with these exceptional quarterly reports and growing full-year estimates, we have seen an undue level of profit-pulling and defensive market positioning. The resurging COVID fears and anticipated shift in monetary policy also weigh on bullish sentiment.<blockquote>然而，分析师预计，随着第二季度财报季的结束，盈利增长峰值将成为过去，在这些丰富的市盈率下，估值可能会压缩。即使有这些出色的季度报告和不断增长的全年预期，我们也看到了过度的利润拉动和防御性市场定位。新冠疫情担忧的死灰复燃和货币政策的预期转变也打压了看涨情绪。</blockquote> Nevertheless, the enormous amount of cash on the bench is still being put to work, with every marginal dip being bought right back up. The national consumer savings rate in the US sits sizably above the last decade's average. Americans are not only participating in the public equity market at a record rate, but they also have plenty of liquidity to keep buying their favorite stocks.<blockquote>尽管如此，板凳上的巨额现金仍在发挥作用，每一次边际下跌都会被买回。美国全国消费者储蓄率远高于过去十年的平均水平。美国人不仅以创纪录的速度参与公共股权市场，而且他们还有充足的流动性来继续购买他们喜欢的股票。</blockquote> Stocks remain the most attractive asset class, with negative real interest rates in the bond market, sky-high commodity prices, highly volatile crypto prices, and pricing pressure that most publicly traded companies have been able to easily transfer to their end-markets (illustrated by Q2 margin results).<blockquote>股票仍然是最具吸引力的资产类别，债券市场的负实际利率、天价商品价格、高度波动的加密货币价格以及大多数上市公司能够轻松转移到终端市场的定价压力（第二季度利润率结果说明）。</blockquote> I expect to see a rolling correction, reflected by a consolidating stock market, instead of this 10%+ correction that analysts have been postulating. Range-bound indexes(less than 10% swings) for some time (month or two) would have the same valuation compressing effect as an all-out correction because earnings would be growing while prices remain muted, leading to shrinking P/E multiples (aka rolling correction).<blockquote>我预计会看到股市盘整所反映的滚动调整，而不是分析师一直假设的 10% 以上的调整。在一段时间（一两个月）内（波动小于 10%）的区间指数（波动小于 10%）会产生与全面修正相同的估值压缩效果，因为收益会增长，而价格保持低迷，导致市盈率缩小（又名滚动修正）。</blockquote> I foresee a sideways broader market trade until the Delta-variant is no longer a global concern. I remain bullish on stocks for the remaining 5 months of 2021 and am confident that the S&amp;P 500 will close out the year higher than it is trading at today.<blockquote>我预计市场交易将横盘整理，直到Delta变体不再是全球关注的问题。在2021年剩余的5个月里，我仍然看好股市，并相信标普500将以高于今天的交易价格结束这一年。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What's Next For The S&P 500: 10% Pullback or Rolling Correction?<blockquote>标普500的下一步是什么：10%回调还是滚动修正？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat's Next For The S&P 500: 10% Pullback or Rolling Correction?<blockquote>标普500的下一步是什么：10%回调还是滚动修正？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzacks2021-08-05 18:08\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe market has become increasingly rational as this 16-month bull market matures, and index-based upside potential dwindles every additional percentage they rally. This is a stock picker's market. Quality stocks in well-positioned sectors will have much higher upside potential than most index-tracking ETFs for the remainder of 2021.<blockquote>随着这16个月的牛市的成熟，市场变得越来越理性，基于指数的上涨潜力每增加一个百分比，就会减少。这是一个选股者的市场。在 2021 年剩余时间里，定位良好的行业中的优质股票将比大多数指数跟踪 ETF 具有更高的上涨潜力。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 hasn't seen a pullback of more than 5% so far this year and hasn't seen an actual correction (a pullback of 10% or more) since last September, which was quickly bought back up once that down 10% mark was reached. Despite this blue-chip benchmark not exhibiting any material sell-off, over 90% of its 505 components have experienced a 10% or larger correction in 2021 thus far.<blockquote>今年到目前为止，标普500的回调幅度还没有超过 5%，自去年 9 月以来也没有出现过实际的调整（回调 10% 或更多），一旦达到 10% 的下跌关口，该指数就很快被买回。尽管这个蓝筹股基准没有表现出任何材料抛售，但迄今为止，其 505 个组件中有超过 90% 在 2021 年经历了 10% 或更大的调整。</blockquote> Rotations In &amp; Out of Growth &amp; Value<blockquote>增长与价值的进出轮换</blockquote> Investors have kept the stock market's bull drive alive by rotating in and out of growth and value sectors as portfolio's position for the reopening at the beginning of the year, then turned back to growth stocks when the yield surge began to fade mid-May. This performance deviation is clearly illustrated below with Vanguard's growth-oriented ETF (VUG Quick QuoteVUG-Free Report) in the candlesticks and its value-focused ETF (VTV Quick QuoteVTV-Free Report) represented by the orange line.<blockquote>投资者通过在年初重新开盘时轮换进出成长型和价值型板块来保持股市的牛市势头，然后在5月中旬收益率飙升开始消退时又转向成长型股票。下面烛台中的 Vanguard 以增长为导向的 ETF (VUG Quick QuoteVUG-Free Report) 和以价值为导向的 ETF (VTV Quick QuoteVTV-Free Report) 清楚地说明了这种业绩偏差。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80d0680692ab8ada950167692164017e\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"408\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Image Source: TradingView<blockquote>图片来源：TradingView</blockquote> The year-to-date performance divergence between these two stock groupings illustrates that investors &amp; traders are not buying indiscriminately. Meaning that judgment is going into every trade decision (aka stock picking), causing the market to deflate overstretched areas and reallocate into relatively cheaper spaces.<blockquote>这两个股票组合今年迄今为止的表现差异表明，投资者和交易员并没有不分青红皂白地购买。这意味着这种判断会渗透到每一个交易决策（又名选股）中，导致市场收缩过度紧张的领域并重新分配到相对便宜的领域。</blockquote> Accelerating Annualized Returns<blockquote>加速年化回报</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 has remained above an extraordinary 75% annualized return trendline for over 16 months now. Unfortunately, this rate of return isn't even close to sustainable.<blockquote>16 个月来，标普500一直保持在 75% 的年化回报率趋势线之上。不幸的是，这种回报率甚至远未达到可持续水平。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 has averaged 12% upside a year over the past 3 decades. However, the average annual growth rate has aged like fine wine. This blue-chip benchmark has demonstrated an average annualized return of nearly 15% over the past decade, and if narrowed down to just the last 5 years, those annual gains go up to over 16%.<blockquote>过去 30 年来，标普500平均每年上涨 12%。然而，年均增长率却像美酒一样陈年。这一蓝筹股基准在过去十年中的平均年化回报率接近 15%，如果缩小到过去 5 年，这些年收益将超过 16%。</blockquote> The stock market is experiencing swelling average annual gains because of the rapid acceleration of technology that continuously accelerates companies' and our economy's growth outlook. I expect to see continued annualized return acceleration over the next decade as tech makes up a growing portion of the public equity market. Nevertheless, a rolling 75% annualized return out of the S&amp;P 500 isn't viable.<blockquote>由于技术的快速发展不断加速公司和我们经济的增长前景，股市正在经历不断膨胀的年均涨幅。随着科技在公共股票市场中所占份额越来越大，我预计未来十年年化回报率将继续加速。然而，标普500滚动 75% 的年化回报率是不可行的。</blockquote> There may be too much sideline capital (a record 5.5 trillion in money market funds, according to Goldman Sachs (GS Quick QuoteGS-Free Report) for the market to entirely correct. Still, we are due for consolidation over the next few months, aka a rolling correction.<blockquote>可能有太多的边际资本（根据高盛（GS Quick QuoteGS-Free Report）的数据，货币市场基金达到创纪录的5.5万亿美元，市场无法完全纠正。尽管如此，我们仍将在未来几个月进行整合，也就是滚动调整。</blockquote> We are now entering a pivotal point in this maturing market cycle. Q2 earnings season has been tremendous thus far, with earnings soaring 105% on sales up over 22% from a year ago. 91% of the reported companies beating EPS estimates, and over 86% beat top-line projections. The richly valued tech sector has demonstrated awe-inspiring Q2 results, with 100% of them exceeding EPS estimates and over 96% beating on revenues, which seemingly justified frothy valuations in the space.<blockquote>我们现在正进入这个成熟市场周期的关键点。到目前为止，第二季度财报季表现非常出色，盈利飙升 105%，销售额同比增长 22% 以上。91% 的报告公司超出了每股收益预期，超过 86% 的公司超出了营收预测。估值极高的科技行业第二季度业绩令人敬畏，其中 100% 的业绩超出了每股收益预期，超过 96% 的业绩超出了收入预期，这似乎证明了该领域的泡沫估值是合理的。</blockquote> However, analysts are projecting peak earnings growth to be in the rear-view mirror as Q2 earnings season wraps up, and at these rich multiples, valuation compression may be in order. Even with these exceptional quarterly reports and growing full-year estimates, we have seen an undue level of profit-pulling and defensive market positioning. The resurging COVID fears and anticipated shift in monetary policy also weigh on bullish sentiment.<blockquote>然而，分析师预计，随着第二季度财报季的结束，盈利增长峰值将成为过去，在这些丰富的市盈率下，估值可能会压缩。即使有这些出色的季度报告和不断增长的全年预期，我们也看到了过度的利润拉动和防御性市场定位。新冠疫情担忧的死灰复燃和货币政策的预期转变也打压了看涨情绪。</blockquote> Nevertheless, the enormous amount of cash on the bench is still being put to work, with every marginal dip being bought right back up. The national consumer savings rate in the US sits sizably above the last decade's average. Americans are not only participating in the public equity market at a record rate, but they also have plenty of liquidity to keep buying their favorite stocks.<blockquote>尽管如此，板凳上的巨额现金仍在发挥作用，每一次边际下跌都会被买回。美国全国消费者储蓄率远高于过去十年的平均水平。美国人不仅以创纪录的速度参与公共股权市场，而且他们还有充足的流动性来继续购买他们喜欢的股票。</blockquote> Stocks remain the most attractive asset class, with negative real interest rates in the bond market, sky-high commodity prices, highly volatile crypto prices, and pricing pressure that most publicly traded companies have been able to easily transfer to their end-markets (illustrated by Q2 margin results).<blockquote>股票仍然是最具吸引力的资产类别，债券市场的负实际利率、天价商品价格、高度波动的加密货币价格以及大多数上市公司能够轻松转移到终端市场的定价压力（第二季度利润率结果说明）。</blockquote> I expect to see a rolling correction, reflected by a consolidating stock market, instead of this 10%+ correction that analysts have been postulating. Range-bound indexes(less than 10% swings) for some time (month or two) would have the same valuation compressing effect as an all-out correction because earnings would be growing while prices remain muted, leading to shrinking P/E multiples (aka rolling correction).<blockquote>我预计会看到股市盘整所反映的滚动调整，而不是分析师一直假设的 10% 以上的调整。在一段时间（一两个月）内（波动小于 10%）的区间指数（波动小于 10%）会产生与全面修正相同的估值压缩效果，因为收益会增长，而价格保持低迷，导致市盈率缩小（又名滚动修正）。</blockquote> I foresee a sideways broader market trade until the Delta-variant is no longer a global concern. I remain bullish on stocks for the remaining 5 months of 2021 and am confident that the S&amp;P 500 will close out the year higher than it is trading at today.<blockquote>我预计市场交易将横盘整理，直到Delta变体不再是全球关注的问题。在2021年剩余的5个月里，我仍然看好股市，并相信标普500将以高于今天的交易价格结束这一年。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zacks.com/commentary/1773639/whats-next-for-the-sp-500-10-pullback-or-rolling-correction?&art_rec=home-home-investment_ideas_stocks-ID09-txt-1278004\">zacks</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zacks.com/commentary/1773639/whats-next-for-the-sp-500-10-pullback-or-rolling-correction?&art_rec=home-home-investment_ideas_stocks-ID09-txt-1278004","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121866583","content_text":"The market has become increasingly rational as this 16-month bull market matures, and index-based upside potential dwindles every additional percentage they rally. This is a stock picker's market. Quality stocks in well-positioned sectors will have much higher upside potential than most index-tracking ETFs for the remainder of 2021.\nThe S&P 500 hasn't seen a pullback of more than 5% so far this year and hasn't seen an actual correction (a pullback of 10% or more) since last September, which was quickly bought back up once that down 10% mark was reached. Despite this blue-chip benchmark not exhibiting any material sell-off, over 90% of its 505 components have experienced a 10% or larger correction in 2021 thus far.\nRotations In & Out of Growth & Value\nInvestors have kept the stock market's bull drive alive by rotating in and out of growth and value sectors as portfolio's position for the reopening at the beginning of the year, then turned back to growth stocks when the yield surge began to fade mid-May. This performance deviation is clearly illustrated below with Vanguard's growth-oriented ETF (VUG Quick QuoteVUG-Free Report) in the candlesticks and its value-focused ETF (VTV Quick QuoteVTV-Free Report) represented by the orange line.\n\nImage Source: TradingView\nThe year-to-date performance divergence between these two stock groupings illustrates that investors & traders are not buying indiscriminately. Meaning that judgment is going into every trade decision (aka stock picking), causing the market to deflate overstretched areas and reallocate into relatively cheaper spaces.\nAccelerating Annualized Returns\nThe S&P 500 has remained above an extraordinary 75% annualized return trendline for over 16 months now. Unfortunately, this rate of return isn't even close to sustainable.\nThe S&P 500 has averaged 12% upside a year over the past 3 decades. However, the average annual growth rate has aged like fine wine. This blue-chip benchmark has demonstrated an average annualized return of nearly 15% over the past decade, and if narrowed down to just the last 5 years, those annual gains go up to over 16%.\nThe stock market is experiencing swelling average annual gains because of the rapid acceleration of technology that continuously accelerates companies' and our economy's growth outlook. I expect to see continued annualized return acceleration over the next decade as tech makes up a growing portion of the public equity market. Nevertheless, a rolling 75% annualized return out of the S&P 500 isn't viable.\nThere may be too much sideline capital (a record 5.5 trillion in money market funds, according to Goldman Sachs (GS Quick QuoteGS-Free Report) for the market to entirely correct. Still, we are due for consolidation over the next few months, aka a rolling correction.\nWe are now entering a pivotal point in this maturing market cycle. Q2 earnings season has been tremendous thus far, with earnings soaring 105% on sales up over 22% from a year ago. 91% of the reported companies beating EPS estimates, and over 86% beat top-line projections. The richly valued tech sector has demonstrated awe-inspiring Q2 results, with 100% of them exceeding EPS estimates and over 96% beating on revenues, which seemingly justified frothy valuations in the space.\nHowever, analysts are projecting peak earnings growth to be in the rear-view mirror as Q2 earnings season wraps up, and at these rich multiples, valuation compression may be in order. Even with these exceptional quarterly reports and growing full-year estimates, we have seen an undue level of profit-pulling and defensive market positioning. The resurging COVID fears and anticipated shift in monetary policy also weigh on bullish sentiment.\nNevertheless, the enormous amount of cash on the bench is still being put to work, with every marginal dip being bought right back up. The national consumer savings rate in the US sits sizably above the last decade's average. Americans are not only participating in the public equity market at a record rate, but they also have plenty of liquidity to keep buying their favorite stocks.\nStocks remain the most attractive asset class, with negative real interest rates in the bond market, sky-high commodity prices, highly volatile crypto prices, and pricing pressure that most publicly traded companies have been able to easily transfer to their end-markets (illustrated by Q2 margin results).\nI expect to see a rolling correction, reflected by a consolidating stock market, instead of this 10%+ correction that analysts have been postulating. Range-bound indexes(less than 10% swings) for some time (month or two) would have the same valuation compressing effect as an all-out correction because earnings would be growing while prices remain muted, leading to shrinking P/E multiples (aka rolling correction).\nI foresee a sideways broader market trade until the Delta-variant is no longer a global concern. I remain bullish on stocks for the remaining 5 months of 2021 and am confident that the S&P 500 will close out the year higher than it is trading at today.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":116,"commentSize":34,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}