市场“大战”美联储，这场抵抗会如何收场_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

市场“大战”美联储，这场抵抗会如何收场

华尔街见闻2022-08-05

在今年早些时候，美联储想要说服市场配合央行的货币政策，还远不像现在这么费力。然而仅仅半年之后，即便美联储发出数十年来最强烈的紧缩信号，市场依旧“我行我素”甚至助推美股刷新近年最佳表现。这导致美联储只好派出一位又一位高官开启车轮战，让他们直接对着市场疯狂“泼冷水”，高声“放鹰”。昨日这项任务轮到克利夫兰联储行长的Loretta Mester。媒体称，周四Mester在接受采访时发出警告称“需要...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

财经梅逻辑
·2022-08-06
这篇文章没什么脑子
回复
点赞
举报
大亏货
·2022-08-05
等，不在乎这几个月，抄底是愚蠢的，等彻底明朗后再给仓位。底部这么贵，买不起，宁可在趋势中买回调，也不无脑抄底。
回复
14
举报
收起
- 航天者Spark:
  阅
  2022-08-05
  回复
  举报
- 每有昵称:
  ，
  2022-08-05
  回复
  举报
- 長乐:
  😊
  2022-08-05
  回复
  举报
查看更多 1 条评论
UC震惊部主编
·2022-08-05
阴跌半年了，给个月级别的小反弹不过分
回复
2
举报
大萌萌萌萌哒
·2022-08-05
谁在抵抗？美股低点已过，再不可能回去了。
回复
1
举报
Mr.L19
·2022-08-05
谁在抵抗？你丫踏空了吧！
回复
3
举报

热议股票

7x24

全部

关于我们·老虎社区守则·老虎社区账号管理规范·老虎社区服务协议·老虎社区隐私政策

公司名称：北京至简风宜信息技术有限公司

违法和不良信息投诉：010-5681-3562（工作时间9:30-18:30）

邮箱：service@laohu8.com

营业执照：91110105MA01A4U55R

ICP备：京ICP备18016422号

网安备：京公网安备11010502036490

关注我们

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1120012174?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2022-08-05 11:06","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","id":"1120012174","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"市场“大战”美联储，这场抵抗会如何收场","media":"华尔街见闻","content":"<div>\n<p>在今年早些时候，美联储想要说服市场配合央行的货币政策，还远不像现在这么费力。然而仅仅半年之后，即便美联储发出数十年来最强烈的紧缩信号，市场依旧“我行我素”甚至助推美股刷新近年最佳表现。这导致美联储只好派出一位又一位高官开启车轮战，让他们直接对着市场疯狂“泼冷水”，高声“放鹰”。昨日这项任务轮到克利夫兰联储行长的Loretta Mester。媒体称，周四Mester在接受采访时发出警告称“需要...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3666843\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>市场“大战”美联储，这场抵抗会如何收场</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n市场“大战”美联储，这场抵抗会如何收场\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-05 11:06 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3666843><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>在今年早些时候，美联储想要说服市场配合央行的货币政策，还远不像现在这么费力。然而仅仅半年之后，即便美联储发出数十年来最强烈的紧缩信号，市场依旧“我行我素”甚至助推美股刷新近年最佳表现。这导致美联储只好派出一位又一位高官开启车轮战，让他们直接对着市场疯狂“泼冷水”，高声“放鹰”。昨日这项任务轮到克利夫兰联储行长的Loretta Mester。媒体称，周四Mester在接受采访时发出警告称“需要...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3666843\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":".DJI","symbol_name":"道琼斯","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3666843","article_id":"1120012174","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54"],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120012174","pubTimestamp":1659668807,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"highlight_wallstreetcn","name":"华尔街见闻"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"市场不再相信美联储。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"wallstreetcn.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"translate_title":"The market \"fights\" the Fed. How will this resistance end","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2b96733a9ea2dea3413ff8fcf203a98","symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9},"content_text":"在今年早些时候，美联储想要说服市场配合央行的货币政策，还远不像现在这么费力。然而仅仅半年之后，即便美联储发出数十年来最强烈的紧缩信号，市场依旧“我行我素”甚至助推美股刷新近年最佳表现。这导致美联储只好派出一位又一位高官开启车轮战，让他们直接对着市场疯狂“泼冷水”，高声“放鹰”。昨日这项任务轮到克利夫兰联储行长的Loretta Mester。媒体称，周四Mester在接受采访时发出警告称“需要进一步提高利率以缓解需求”，并且重申，她并没有看见任何衰退可以威胁到美联储的政策。此外她还强调称，加息速度“可能比我之前预计的还要快”：我目前认为利率可被酌情上调至4%以上......我认为坚持这个观点是合理的，我们会达到那里，我们会看到。她还补充道：利率将在今年和明年上半年继续上调，也许到那时我们会暂停，然后我们可以开始把利率降下来，但是现在很难设想到那么远。Mester还再次强调控制通胀的重要性。她认为在美联储下调利率之前，她需要看到通胀水平在数月中出现下降。总而言之，Mester的“鹰派”发言延续美联储的统一外宣观点，旨在告诫市场，不要低估他们抗击通胀的决心，不要再“唱反调”。但现在问题就是，市场真的会听吗？市场不再相信美联储市场与美联储之间的大战，7月第二次加息75基点就是“导火索”。在此之前，市场基本还能接受美联储所讲的故事。当去年的“通胀暂时论”被现实狠狠教育之后，在今年早些时候，美联储开始正视通胀压力。当时美联储告诉市场，控制通胀是眼下第一要务。而他们控制通胀的方式就是，通过提高利率和缩减资产负债表的“量化紧缩”政策来收紧金融环境，从而提高借贷成本，抑制投资和需求，消除助推通胀上行的“燃料”，在持续一段时间之后，最终实现物价平稳。其中，美联储需要通过市场来将货币政策传导至金融环境之中，之后再逐步传递至实体经济。由此可见，市场在其中的地位举足轻重。起初，市场接受了这套说辞。所以他们接受了债券价格下跌收益率飙升，接受了股票和加密货币市场被暴风袭击，接受了房地产市场出现放缓迹象，认为一切都是为了控制通胀。然而他们看到的结果是，美国6月CPI通胀上涨9.1%，再度刷新40年新高。美联储“通胀斗士”的声誉就这样一点点被消磨殆尽，市场不再相信美联储。因此当美联储再度超大幅度加息75基点之后，立刻引起了市场的“逆反心理”。市场拒绝再为美联储传递货币政策，他们开始押注在衰退阴霾面前，美联储将很快“屈服”，并在紧缩道路上“转向”，最快在9月会议上就将启动降息。在这种预期的指引下，资产价格开始飙升，美股大涨、美债收益率暴跌。到这个时候，市场欢欣鼓舞，认为他们已经拿下了这一局。然而他们可能没想到的是，他们抗争得越久，结局就会越惨烈。顽强抵抗 等来的可能只是一地鸡毛因为美联储不会放弃。当市场押注美联储“转向”，从而推高美股价格并压低美债收益率时，相当于放松了金融市场环境。而这导致的后果是，高企通胀因此被“火上浇油”，更多需求被激发出来，缓和了经济衰退风险，抵消了美联储为控制通胀所作出的努力。而且讽刺的是，这也有悖于他们自身的逻辑立场。市场之所以预计美联储可能“转向”，就是认为美联储将难以抵挡衰退压力。然而他们自身努力推高美股的行动，却是在缓和这种风险。总之，如果市场继续拒绝为美联储传递货币政策，那么美联储将不得不在紧缩道路上飞速前进，通过继续加息来打击市场，直到市场屈服。而这个过程注定是惨烈的。因为市场的抵抗行为会进一步推高通胀，进一步让通胀变得根深蒂固，导致美联储的加息幅度将远超预期。而等到市场终于无力抵抗，愿意和美联储达成合作时，一切只会变得非常糟糕。而且抵抗时间越长，情况越糟糕。到时候，已经屈服的市场再没有可以和美联储谈判的权利，摆在他们面前的或许只有这种惨淡结局。顽强抵抗，等来的可能只是一地鸡毛。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":685562017,"gmtCreate":1659718128041,"gmtModify":1659718128041,"author":{"id":"3576160273978157","authorId":"3576160273978157","name":"财经梅逻辑","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1590a19d3a2b7b48028bb5789a533454","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"这篇文章没什么脑子","listText":"这篇文章没什么脑子","text":"这篇文章没什么脑子","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/685562017","repostId":1120012174,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":685580049,"gmtCreate":1659710894186,"gmtModify":1659711547298,"author":{"id":"4113349255696412","authorId":"4113349255696412","name":"大亏货","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aaeeec5c047caa0b39340be71fdf19f0","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b073a07f77dbe6b3bec6b12311fde6bd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"htmlText":"等，不在乎这几个月，抄底是愚蠢的，等彻底明朗后再给仓位。底部这么贵，买不起，宁可在趋势中买回调，也不无脑抄底。","listText":"等，不在乎这几个月，抄底是愚蠢的，等彻底明朗后再给仓位。底部这么贵，买不起，宁可在趋势中买回调，也不无脑抄底。","text":"等，不在乎这几个月，抄底是愚蠢的，等彻底明朗后再给仓位。底部这么贵，买不起，宁可在趋势中买回调，也不无脑抄底。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":14,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/685580049","repostId":1120012174,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":7582369,"gmtCreate":1659713002891,"gmtModify":1659713006518,"authorId":3491499683313675,"author":{"id":3491499683313675,"authorId":3491499683313675,"name":"航天者Spark","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bde2839422f80e1314cc86a5158e22f","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"3f8f4b8c193b4343a88817ce07587dbd-1","templateUuid":"3f8f4b8c193b4343a88817ce07587dbd","name":"星级创作者","description":"社区优质创作者：发表过3篇及以上精华帖，且30天内发表过至少一篇精华帖并参与过评论","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1866dcf97a73be1c330f85862546aedc","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f5c5fa8e2c7683bb5a7fce8753ee456","redirectLinkEnabled":1,"redirectLink":"https://www.laohu8.com/activity/market/2023/star-contributors/","hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.11.29","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":2007},"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":685580049,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"阅","text":"阅","html":"阅"},{"id":7582363,"gmtCreate":1659712691738,"gmtModify":1659712696255,"authorId":4114309218322020,"author":{"id":4114309218322020,"authorId":4114309218322020,"name":"每有昵称","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a773a6eb3187049ab6a039398c2ae03","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":685580049,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"，","text":"，","html":"，"},{"id":7582362,"gmtCreate":1659712656595,"gmtModify":1659712661180,"authorId":3534308765331303,"author":{"id":3534308765331303,"authorId":3534308765331303,"name":"長乐","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7300e78b907cf4351b20882e2419653a","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":685580049,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"😊","text":"😊","html":"😊"},{"id":7582346,"gmtCreate":1659712305925,"gmtModify":1659712310710,"authorId":3566872988123799,"author":{"id":3566872988123799,"authorId":3566872988123799,"name":"雨中漫步2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4bd90a1c77feeb25a61a96d40bbd1fa","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":685580049,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"赞赞赞","text":"赞赞赞","html":"赞赞赞"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":685517720,"gmtCreate":1659710800262,"gmtModify":1659710800262,"author":{"id":"3573203313070353","authorId":"3573203313070353","name":"UC震惊部主编","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dea323dda0e8135c793f5d1b17cb2dcd","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"阴跌半年了，给个月级别的小反弹不过分","listText":"阴跌半年了，给个月级别的小反弹不过分","text":"阴跌半年了，给个月级别的小反弹不过分","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/685517720","repostId":1120012174,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":685517465,"gmtCreate":1659710797358,"gmtModify":1659711550820,"author":{"id":"3566963788402909","authorId":"3566963788402909","name":"大萌萌萌萌哒","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7b9cf0d5159a0e4f722ff8988925249","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"谁在抵抗？美股低点已过，再不可能回去了。","listText":"谁在抵抗？美股低点已过，再不可能回去了。","text":"谁在抵抗？美股低点已过，再不可能回去了。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/685517465","repostId":1120012174,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":685518126,"gmtCreate":1659708743669,"gmtModify":1659709075180,"author":{"id":"3572989831559422","authorId":"3572989831559422","name":"Mr.L19","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc16b2ad8f212507858dd846c61de1bf","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"谁在抵抗？你丫踏空了吧！","listText":"谁在抵抗？你丫踏空了吧！","text":"谁在抵抗？你丫踏空了吧！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/685518126","repostId":1120012174,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":32,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":6,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}