揭秘美股反弹的真正支撑：5.2万亿美元的新资金_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

揭秘美股反弹的真正支撑：5.2万亿美元的新资金

金十数据2020-06-04

在分析股市的时候，国家的经济状态似乎是绝对不可忽视的一个因素。但其实归根结底，股市主要就受两个因素驱动：恐惧与资金流动。它不关心人；不关心2009年新出现的住在帐篷里的无家可归者；也不关心2020年苦苦挣扎的服务员与酒店清洁工。它只关心能获得的资金。而这，也解释了今年美股的上涨——因为市场的资金很多。分析机构ANG Traders指出，从3月23日开始的股市反弹关键全在于资金，它与经济状况或人们...

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阿呆宝
·2020-06-05
到目前为止，这场危机中总共创造了5.2万亿美元的新资金，并注入了经济。这就是推动股市上涨的原因。
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梓源之源
·2020-06-05
牛市啊
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阿里帕帕
·2020-06-05
WQNMLGB！按照各种“分析师”观点看跌经济做空股市能赔的裤头都不剩。总之美联储就一句话：美股永远不跌！是的，来跟我一起读：美股永远不跌！
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- 申屠青竹:
  都熔断的裤衩都没了，，还死抱着这两句？？ [笑哭]
  发现蓝筹，谨慎入场才是真的好吧。。
  乱出手在哪里都会死得很惨
  2020-06-05
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宁死不屈的韭菜
·2020-06-04
你写了这么多，但我没看懂
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猛逃
·2020-06-04
主要是前景看好……
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晏南天
·2020-06-04
这什么水平文章也推出来，你怎么不仔细看看人家公司盈利多少，不可替代性多强，财富分配制度……笑死人了，人家住帐篷，睡大街怎了，一个月失业金能顶某些地区半年工资。
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- 申屠青竹回复晏南天:
  并不碰大A谢谢。。
  我的标的从来都是中概股 [白眼] [呆住]
  2020-06-13
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- 晏南天回复申屠青竹:
  看看你文到现在才跌了多少，没事您多看看中石油，中国中车，中国重工 [微笑]
  2020-06-13
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- 申屠青竹回复晏南天:
  走着瞧吧
  2020-06-13
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查看更多 2 条评论
真的英雄
·2020-06-04
才5.2万亿美元，还不够买咱们中国一个城市的房子[弱]
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老大之
·2020-06-04
事后就不要说了，已经涨了，可以找一万个理由，下跌依然
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地产大亨
·2020-06-04
第一段2019写成了2009
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潜力股
·2020-06-04
现在看来人家是成功的，癌股真丢
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大吼一声喵
·2020-06-04
是啊，不单美国，某国也是啦。听说6月结束。
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Funds","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a36125dc2a14a2ee55dff77a8290780e","symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9},"content_text":"在分析股市的时候，国家的经济状态似乎是绝对不可忽视的一个因素。但其实归根结底，股市主要就受两个因素驱动：恐惧与资金流动。它不关心人；不关心2009年新出现的住在帐篷里的无家可归者；也不关心2020年苦苦挣扎的服务员与酒店清洁工。它只关心能获得的资金。\n而这，也解释了今年美股的上涨——因为市场的资金很多。分析机构ANG Traders指出，从3月23日开始的股市反弹关键全在于资金，它与经济状况或人们的身体健康毫无关联，而现在，股市的资金流动出现放缓迹象。在下面这篇文章里，ANG Traders就探讨了资金数据中出现的一些“问题”，以及它们可能会对股市产生中期影响。\n货币创造\n货币的来源有两个：政府支出和银行信贷。类似地，它也以两种方式被消耗：税收与偿还贷款。\n联邦政府的公共“债务”能体现出政府创造了多少货币，需要注意的是，那并不是实际意义上的债务。联邦政府是美元的创造者，所以它不需要去“借”美元——就好像种苹果的果农不需要跟别人借苹果一样。\n所谓的“债务”指的是美国国债的存量，它只是提供能安全存放美元的付息储蓄账户，而不是将美元存放在不付利息的活期存款账户中。它有助于维持对美元的需求。\n与贷款不同的是，当一份美债到期时，它的面值金额加上利息会从储蓄账户（债券）转移到持有者的活期存款账户中，这其中并没有资金被消耗（实际上，因为利息支付，还有新资金产生了）。如果美债是真正的贷款，那么这笔钱将不复存在，就好像偿还银行贷款，会消除银行一方账本上的资产一样。\n自这场疫情危机爆发以来，联邦政府新印货币达2.2万亿美元，再加上银行信贷，共同推动了此次始于3月23日的股市反弹。（见下图）\n\n其中新增的1万亿美元已经进入国库现金余额（TCB）中且仍未动用，这是尚未通过政府支出进入经济的资金。（见下图）\n\n（3月23日后的）新印货币与进入TCB那部分之间的差额正好等于赤字——政府支出比税收多出了1.2万亿美元。下图显示了财政部的每日净支出，可以看见债券出售与赎回的波动被消除了。\n\n自3月23日以来，美国财政部投入经济的资金比税收多出了1.2万亿美元，而它的账户里还有1.4万亿美元备用。这笔巨大的资金可以用于未来，并且应该可以用来帮助支持股市。\n除了财政部新印的货币，还有银行系统以银行贷款的形式创造出来的货币，以及美联储以在公开市场上直接购买资产（量化宽松）所创造的货币。自3月23日以来，美联储市场公开操作账户（SOMA）增持了近3万亿美元的资产（见下图）。\n\n银行信贷的扩张比SOMA早一个月。自2月中旬以来，银行已发放了1万亿美元的贷款。（如下图）\n\n到目前为止，这场危机中总共创造了5.2万亿美元的新资金，并注入了经济。这就是推动股市上涨的原因。\n资金流动出现放缓迹象？\n然而最近，ANG Traders注意到SOMA和银行业总数据变化的速度有所放缓（上图的蓝色矩形框）。在SOMA方面，流动性的增长几乎停止了。银行数据的下降代表着货币的消耗，这是偿还贷款时才会发生的事情。信贷资金的减少发生在以下几个贷款类别中。（见下图）\n\n\n\n\n信贷减少无益于帮助经济恢复增长。因为偿还贷款，许多本能流向消费者和企业的救济资金都会消失。\n一个例外是汽车贷款。不同于其他类型的贷款，它已开始趋于稳定。\n\n从资金流动的角度来看，ANG 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[白眼] [呆住]","text":"并不碰大A谢谢。。<br>\n我的标的从来都是中概股 [白眼] [呆住]","html":"并不碰大A谢谢。。<br>\n我的标的从来都是中概股 [白眼] 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