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2021-08-10

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3 Reasons To Sell Airbnb And Buy Booking Holdings Instead<blockquote>出售爱彼迎并购买Booking Holdings的3个理由</blockquote>

We had been waiting for a long time for Airbnb (ABNB) to enter the stock market, as we are fans of i

3 Reasons To Sell Airbnb And Buy Booking Holdings Instead<blockquote>出售爱彼迎并购买Booking Holdings的3个理由</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":896777400,"tweetId":"896777400","gmtCreate":1628608042600,"gmtModify":1633745750829,"author":{"id":4090294040868890,"idStr":"4090294040868890","authorId":4090294040868890,"authorIdStr":"4090294040868890","name":"Weeeeeeeee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":1,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Like and comment</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Like and comment</body></html>","text":"Like and comment","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/896777400","repostId":1103660662,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1103660662","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628579372,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1103660662?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-10 15:09","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Reasons To Sell Airbnb And Buy Booking Holdings Instead<blockquote>出售爱彼迎并购买Booking Holdings的3个理由</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1103660662","media":"seeking alpha","summary":"We had been waiting for a long time for Airbnb (ABNB) to enter the stock market, as we are fans of i","content":"We had been waiting for a long time for Airbnb (ABNB) to enter the stock market, as we are fans of its house renting platform, but were deeply disappointed that its shares have never traded at what we consider reasonable prices.<blockquote>我们等待爱彼迎（ABNB）进入股市已经很长时间了，因为我们是其房屋租赁平台的粉丝，但对其股票从未以我们认为合理的价格交易深感失望。</blockquote> It seems we are not the only ones liking their platform, seeing the number of downloads of its app on the Google Play Store exceeding 50 million, and with an average rating of 4.6/5.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a6e66ca82026c922d9565d2175070fc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"477\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Google Play Store<blockquote>似乎我们不是唯一喜欢他们平台的人，看到其应用程序在谷歌Play商店的下载量超过5000万，平均评分为4.6/5。来源：谷歌Play商店</blockquote> On the other hand there is Booking Holdings (BKNG), which has traded in the stock market for over 20 years, and has not experienced as much hype recently as Airbnb has. It actually has more downloads and a better app rating than Airbnb. The Booking app has been downloaded more than 100 million times and has a 4.7/5 rating.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/490cd620f1b105fb8a7d78aa0e4c1141\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"477\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote>另一方面，还有Booking Holdings(BKNG)，该公司在股市交易了20多年，最近并没有像爱彼迎那样经历那么多炒作。它实际上比爱彼迎有更多的下载量和更好的应用评级。该预订应用程序的下载量已超过1亿次，评分为4.7/5。</blockquote> Source: Google Play Store<blockquote>来源：谷歌Play商店</blockquote> Beyond their namesake apps, Airbnb acquired Lastminute.com, and Booking Holdings owns other very popular websites and apps including OpenTable, Kayak, and Agoda.<blockquote>除了同名应用程序之外，爱彼迎还收购了Lastminute.com，Booking Holdings还拥有其他非常受欢迎的网站和应用程序，包括OpenTable、Kayak和Agoda。</blockquote> 1. Reason #1 Business model<blockquote>1.理由#1商业模式</blockquote> Both companies have very strong platform business models that benefit from network effects. People looking for travel accommodation tend to search first on the site with more/better options, and property owners tend to list their offerings on the platforms with more users. This creates a powerful network effect that reinforces the dominance of the platform. The main difference in the business model is that while they both compete on demand side of the platform for travelers, on the supply side Booking mostly features hotels while Airbnb has properties owned by individuals. We prefer Booking's focus on hotels given that it is more reliable and has less regulatory risks.<blockquote>两家公司都有非常强大的平台商业模式，受益于网络效应。寻找旅游住宿的人倾向于首先在有更多/更好选择的网站上搜索，业主倾向于在拥有更多用户的平台上列出他们的产品。这产生了强大的网络效应，强化了平台的主导地位。商业模式的主要区别在于，虽然它们都在旅行者平台的需求方面竞争，但在供应方面，预订主要以酒店为特色，而爱彼迎则拥有个人拥有的房产。我们更喜欢Booking专注于酒店，因为它更可靠且监管风险更小。</blockquote> Another important business model difference is the market focus. Looking at Alexa.com we see that Airbnb is only the #217 most popular website worldwide, but it is #63 in the United States. Most of its website traffic comes from the USA, with some significant contribution from Japan and Mexico.<blockquote>另一个重要的商业模式差异是市场焦点。看看Alexa.com，我们发现爱彼迎在全球最受欢迎的网站中排名第217位，但在美国排名第63位。其大部分网站流量来自美国，日本和墨西哥也有一些重要贡献。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a82d63f8f1712a2c6ffcc64529d4b870\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"303\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> Source:Alexa.com<blockquote>资料来源：Alexa.com</blockquote> Meanwhile Booking is a lot more popular internationally, with its website being the #80 in the world, but #108 in the USA. Its website visits are a lot more distributed around the globe, with the USA as the most important contributor, followed by Italy and then Russia.<blockquote>与此同时，预订在国际上更受欢迎，其网站在世界上排名第80位，但在美国排名第108位。其网站访问量更多地分布在全球各地，美国是最重要的贡献者，其次是意大利，然后是俄罗斯。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/298544cde4e5d072a731aad4163689ab\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"303\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> Source:Alexa.com<blockquote>资料来源：Alexa.com</blockquote> While both companies have relatively similar platform business models, we believe the focus on professional supply and international focus is somewhat preferable, but it can be said that both companies operate attractive and successful platforms.<blockquote>虽然两家公司的平台业务模式相对相似，但我们认为专注于专业供应和国际关注在某种程度上更可取，但可以说两家公司都运营着有吸引力且成功的平台。</blockquote> 2. Reason #2 Regulatory issues<blockquote>2.原因#2监管问题</blockquote> One big advantage Booking has is that by focusing on hotels it is not at odds with city and national government the way Airbnb is, with many cities battling the company over taxes and zoning rules.<blockquote>Booking的一大优势是，通过专注于酒店，它不会像爱彼迎那样与市政府和国家政府发生冲突，许多城市都在税收和分区规则上与该公司发生冲突。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4acb5425499a37f92debf453d1551d62\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"213\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> Source: Wired.com<blockquote>资料来源：Wired.com</blockquote> There is some nuance to this point, since Booking is starting to add alternative accommodations and Airbnb has lastminute.com which focuses on hotels, but in general it is fair to say that the accommodation supply on Airbnb tends to be more problematic in terms of regulations or lack thereof.<blockquote>这一点有一些细微差别，因为Booking开始增加替代住宿，爱彼迎有专注于酒店的lastminute.com，但总的来说，公平地说，爱彼迎的住宿供应在法规或缺乏法规方面往往更成问题。</blockquote> For readers interested in a more in depth look at the issues cities have with Airbnb we recommendthis Wired article. Below we include an extract detailing the type of legal issues the company is facing:<blockquote>对于有兴趣更深入地了解城市与爱彼迎的问题的读者，我们推荐这篇《连线》杂志的文章。下面我们包含详细介绍公司面临的法律问题类型的摘录：</blockquote> \"Read my lips: We want to pay taxes,” Chris Lehane, Airbnb’s global head of public policy,told the nation’s mayorsin 2016. In the years since, the home-sharing site has repeated the declaration in press releases,op-eds, emails, and onbillboards. On its website, Airbnb says it is “democratizing revenue by generating tens of millions of new tax dollars for governments all over the world.”But when Palm Beach County, Florida, a popular tourist destination, passed an ordinance in October 2018 requiringAirbnband other short-term rental companies to collect and pay the county’s 6 percent occupancy tax on visits arranged through their sites, Airbnb sued.Palm Beach County tax collector Anne Gannon wasn’t surprised. “We knew we were going to get sued,” she says. “That’s what they do all over the country. It’s their mode of operation.” 3. Reason #3 Valuation, valuation, valuation<blockquote>“看我的嘴唇：我们想要纳税，”爱彼迎全球公共政策主管Chris Lehane在2016年告诉全国市长。自那以后的几年里，这个家庭共享网站在新闻稿、专栏、电子邮件和广告牌上重复了这一声明。爱彼迎在其网站上表示，它正在“通过为世界各地政府创造数千万新税收来实现收入民主化。”但当热门旅游目的地佛罗里达州棕榈滩县于2018年10月通过一项法令，要求Airbnband和其他短期租赁公司对通过其网站安排的访问收取并支付该县6%的占用税时，爱彼迎提起诉讼。棕榈滩县税务员安妮·甘农并不感到惊讶。“我们知道我们会被起诉，”她说。“他们在全国都是这么做的，这是他们的运作模式。”3.理由#3估值，估值，估值</blockquote> If the 3 most important things in real estate are location, location, location. When investing the 3 most important things are valuation, valuation, valuation.<blockquote>如果房地产中最重要的三件事是位置，位置，位置。投资时，最重要的三件事是估值、估值、估值。</blockquote> Despite the similarities between the two companies, investors are paying almost twice for a dollar of revenue for Airbnb compared to Booking.<blockquote>尽管两家公司有相似之处，但与Booking相比，投资者为爱彼迎的一美元收入支付的费用几乎是其两倍。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bd720ee3691841fd400a7aed61f43d4\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据来自YCharts</blockquote> Similarly a quick look to the EV/EBITDA multiples shows again that investors are valuing Airbnb at a huge premium to Booking. Below we show the difference, with EBITDA being the estimate for the coming year (i.e. forward estimate). We do not think it is reasonable to value a dollar of earnings from Airbnb at more that 3x a dollar of earnings for Booking.<blockquote>同样，快速浏览一下EV/EBITDA倍数再次表明，投资者对爱彼迎的估值远远高于预订。下面我们展示了差异，EBITDA是来年的估计（即远期估计）。我们认为，将爱彼迎一美元收益的估值超过Booking一美元收益的3倍是不合理的。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45637bdfb699651c069058ea94f13de1\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据来自YCharts</blockquote> It could be argued by some that the valuation difference is due to faster growth by Airbnb, so we will proceed to compare both companies using a DCF model.<blockquote>有些人可能会认为估值差异是由于爱彼迎增长更快造成的，因此我们将继续使用DCF模型比较两家公司。</blockquote> We used the earnings estimates from Seeking Alpha to build a discounted cash flow model for each. We start with Airbnb where we use more than ten years of analyst estimates, and then we assume an above GDP long-term growth rate of 5%. For the discount rate we use 10% since that is the minimum return we would be willing to accept as investors in the company.<blockquote>我们使用Seeking Alpha的盈利预测为每个项目构建了贴现现金流模型。我们从爱彼迎开始，使用了十多年的分析师估计，然后我们假设GDP长期增长率高于5%。对于贴现率，我们使用10%，因为这是我们作为公司投资者愿意接受的最低回报。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e762de0de40f35d057d488fa9c74c804\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"315\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> Source: Seeking Alpha<blockquote>资料来源：寻求阿尔法</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Fiscal Period Ending</td> <td>EPS Estimate</td> <td># Analysts</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Dec 2021</td> <td>-$1.99</td> <td>26</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Dec 2022</td> <td>-$0.11</td> <td>24</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Dec 2023</td> <td>$0.57</td> <td>18</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Dec 2024</td> <td>$1.27</td> <td>9</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Dec 2025</td> <td>$2.42</td> <td>7</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Dec 2026</td> <td>$3.41</td> <td>5</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Dec 2027</td> <td>$5.25</td> <td>3</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Dec 2028</td> <td>$6.16</td> <td>3</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Dec 2029</td> <td>$7.55</td> <td>2</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Dec 2030</td> <td>$9.02</td> <td>2</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Terminal value</td> <td>$180.40</td> <td>5% growth per year</td> </tr> <tr> <td>DCF value per share</td> <td>$86.02</td> <td>10% discount rate</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> The DCF model result of $86 per share for Airbnb is significantly lower than its recent trading price of ~$150.<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>财政期间结束</td><td>每股收益估计</td><td>#分析师</td></tr><tr><td>2021年12月</td><td>-$1.99</td><td>26</td></tr><tr><td>2022年12月</td><td>-$0.11</td><td>24</td></tr><tr><td>2023年12月</td><td>$0.57</td><td>18</td></tr><tr><td>2024年12月</td><td>$1.27</td><td>9</td></tr><tr><td>2025年12月</td><td>$2.42</td><td>7</td></tr><tr><td>2026年12月</td><td>$3.41</td><td>5</td></tr><tr><td>2027年12月</td><td>$5.25</td><td>3</td></tr><tr><td>2028年12月</td><td>$6.16</td><td>3</td></tr><tr><td>2029年12月</td><td>$7.55</td><td>2</td></tr><tr><td>2030年12月</td><td>$9.02</td><td>2</td></tr><tr><td>终值</td><td>$180.40</td><td>每年增长5%</td></tr><tr><td>每股DCF价值</td><td>$86.02</td><td>10%贴现率</td></tr></tbody></table>爱彼迎的DCF模型结果为每股86美元，明显低于其最近约150美元的交易价格。</blockquote> Repeating the exercise for Booking we obtain an estimated value per share of $3,422 compared to a recent trading price of $2,182. We therefore believe Booking Holdings is trading at a more than 33% discount to fair value, with a very nice margin of safety.<blockquote>重复预订操作，我们获得的每股估计价值为3,422美元，而最近的交易价格为2,182美元。因此，我们认为Booking Holdings的交易价格较公允价值折价超过33%，具有非常好的安全边际。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31691e79c2a880a5a6ef83477d176106\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"315\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> Source: Seeking Alpha<blockquote>资料来源：寻求阿尔法</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Fiscal Period Ending</td> <td>EPS Estimate</td> <td># Analysts</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Dec 2021</td> <td>$40.71</td> <td>29</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Dec 2022</td> <td>$98.10</td> <td>29</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Dec 2023</td> <td>$124.71</td> <td>19</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Dec 2024</td> <td>$142.74</td> <td>6</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Dec 2025</td> <td>$156.53</td> <td>5</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Dec 2026</td> <td>$180.59</td> <td>3</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Dec 2027</td> <td>$201.19</td> <td>2</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Dec 2028</td> <td>$247.76</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Dec 2029</td> <td>$278.76</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Dec 2030</td> <td>$308.11</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Terminal value</td> <td>$6,162.20</td> <td>5% growth per year</td> </tr> <tr> <td>DCF value per share</td> <td>$3,422.16</td> <td>10% discount rate</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Conclusion<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>财政期间结束</td><td>每股收益估计</td><td>#分析师</td></tr><tr><td>2021年12月</td><td>$40.71</td><td>29</td></tr><tr><td>2022年12月</td><td>$98.10</td><td>29</td></tr><tr><td>2023年12月</td><td>$124.71</td><td>19</td></tr><tr><td>2024年12月</td><td>$142.74</td><td>6</td></tr><tr><td>2025年12月</td><td>$156.53</td><td>5</td></tr><tr><td>2026年12月</td><td>$180.59</td><td>3</td></tr><tr><td>2027年12月</td><td>$201.19</td><td>2</td></tr><tr><td>2028年12月</td><td>$247.76</td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>2029年12月</td><td>$278.76</td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>2030年12月</td><td>$308.11</td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>终值</td><td>$6,162.20</td><td>每年增长5%</td></tr><tr><td>每股DCF价值</td><td>$3,422.16</td><td>10%贴现率</td></tr></tbody></table>结论</blockquote> Airbnb and Booking Holdings are both high-quality platform businesses that will likely benefit from the increase in online travel bookings. However, at present time, we think Booking Holdings is the better option thanks to its international strategy, focus on hotels, and more than anything a much more reasonable valuation.<blockquote>爱彼迎和Booking Holdings都是优质的平台业务，可能会受益于在线旅游预订的增长。然而，目前我们认为Booking Holdings是更好的选择，这要归功于其国际战略、专注于酒店，最重要的是估值更合理。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Reasons To Sell Airbnb And Buy Booking Holdings Instead<blockquote>出售爱彼迎并购买Booking Holdings的3个理由</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Reasons To Sell Airbnb And Buy Booking Holdings Instead<blockquote>出售爱彼迎并购买Booking Holdings的3个理由</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nseeking alpha2021-08-10 15:09\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nWe had been waiting for a long time for Airbnb (ABNB) to enter the stock market, as we are fans of its house renting platform, but were deeply disappointed that its shares have never traded at what we consider reasonable prices.<blockquote>我们等待爱彼迎（ABNB）进入股市已经很长时间了，因为我们是其房屋租赁平台的粉丝，但对其股票从未以我们认为合理的价格交易深感失望。</blockquote> It seems we are not the only ones liking their platform, seeing the number of downloads of its app on the Google Play Store exceeding 50 million, and with an average rating of 4.6/5.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a6e66ca82026c922d9565d2175070fc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"477\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Google Play Store<blockquote>似乎我们不是唯一喜欢他们平台的人，看到其应用程序在谷歌Play商店的下载量超过5000万，平均评分为4.6/5。来源：谷歌Play商店</blockquote> On the other hand there is Booking Holdings (BKNG), which has traded in the stock market for over 20 years, and has not experienced as much hype recently as Airbnb has. It actually has more downloads and a better app rating than Airbnb. The Booking app has been downloaded more than 100 million times and has a 4.7/5 rating.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/490cd620f1b105fb8a7d78aa0e4c1141\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"477\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote>另一方面，还有Booking Holdings(BKNG)，该公司在股市交易了20多年，最近并没有像爱彼迎那样经历那么多炒作。它实际上比爱彼迎有更多的下载量和更好的应用评级。该预订应用程序的下载量已超过1亿次，评分为4.7/5。</blockquote> Source: Google Play Store<blockquote>来源：谷歌Play商店</blockquote> Beyond their namesake apps, Airbnb acquired Lastminute.com, and Booking Holdings owns other very popular websites and apps including OpenTable, Kayak, and Agoda.<blockquote>除了同名应用程序之外，爱彼迎还收购了Lastminute.com，Booking Holdings还拥有其他非常受欢迎的网站和应用程序，包括OpenTable、Kayak和Agoda。</blockquote> 1. Reason #1 Business model<blockquote>1.理由#1商业模式</blockquote> Both companies have very strong platform business models that benefit from network effects. People looking for travel accommodation tend to search first on the site with more/better options, and property owners tend to list their offerings on the platforms with more users. This creates a powerful network effect that reinforces the dominance of the platform. The main difference in the business model is that while they both compete on demand side of the platform for travelers, on the supply side Booking mostly features hotels while Airbnb has properties owned by individuals. We prefer Booking's focus on hotels given that it is more reliable and has less regulatory risks.<blockquote>两家公司都有非常强大的平台商业模式，受益于网络效应。寻找旅游住宿的人倾向于首先在有更多/更好选择的网站上搜索，业主倾向于在拥有更多用户的平台上列出他们的产品。这产生了强大的网络效应，强化了平台的主导地位。商业模式的主要区别在于，虽然它们都在旅行者平台的需求方面竞争，但在供应方面，预订主要以酒店为特色，而爱彼迎则拥有个人拥有的房产。我们更喜欢Booking专注于酒店，因为它更可靠且监管风险更小。</blockquote> Another important business model difference is the market focus. Looking at Alexa.com we see that Airbnb is only the #217 most popular website worldwide, but it is #63 in the United States. Most of its website traffic comes from the USA, with some significant contribution from Japan and Mexico.<blockquote>另一个重要的商业模式差异是市场焦点。看看Alexa.com，我们发现爱彼迎在全球最受欢迎的网站中排名第217位，但在美国排名第63位。其大部分网站流量来自美国，日本和墨西哥也有一些重要贡献。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a82d63f8f1712a2c6ffcc64529d4b870\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"303\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> Source:Alexa.com<blockquote>资料来源：Alexa.com</blockquote> Meanwhile Booking is a lot more popular internationally, with its website being the #80 in the world, but #108 in the USA. Its website visits are a lot more distributed around the globe, with the USA as the most important contributor, followed by Italy and then Russia.<blockquote>与此同时，预订在国际上更受欢迎，其网站在世界上排名第80位，但在美国排名第108位。其网站访问量更多地分布在全球各地，美国是最重要的贡献者，其次是意大利，然后是俄罗斯。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/298544cde4e5d072a731aad4163689ab\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"303\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> Source:Alexa.com<blockquote>资料来源：Alexa.com</blockquote> While both companies have relatively similar platform business models, we believe the focus on professional supply and international focus is somewhat preferable, but it can be said that both companies operate attractive and successful platforms.<blockquote>虽然两家公司的平台业务模式相对相似，但我们认为专注于专业供应和国际关注在某种程度上更可取，但可以说两家公司都运营着有吸引力且成功的平台。</blockquote> 2. Reason #2 Regulatory issues<blockquote>2.原因#2监管问题</blockquote> One big advantage Booking has is that by focusing on hotels it is not at odds with city and national government the way Airbnb is, with many cities battling the company over taxes and zoning rules.<blockquote>Booking的一大优势是，通过专注于酒店，它不会像爱彼迎那样与市政府和国家政府发生冲突，许多城市都在税收和分区规则上与该公司发生冲突。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4acb5425499a37f92debf453d1551d62\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"213\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> Source: Wired.com<blockquote>资料来源：Wired.com</blockquote> There is some nuance to this point, since Booking is starting to add alternative accommodations and Airbnb has lastminute.com which focuses on hotels, but in general it is fair to say that the accommodation supply on Airbnb tends to be more problematic in terms of regulations or lack thereof.<blockquote>这一点有一些细微差别，因为Booking开始增加替代住宿，爱彼迎有专注于酒店的lastminute.com，但总的来说，公平地说，爱彼迎的住宿供应在法规或缺乏法规方面往往更成问题。</blockquote> For readers interested in a more in depth look at the issues cities have with Airbnb we recommendthis Wired article. Below we include an extract detailing the type of legal issues the company is facing:<blockquote>对于有兴趣更深入地了解城市与爱彼迎的问题的读者，我们推荐这篇《连线》杂志的文章。下面我们包含详细介绍公司面临的法律问题类型的摘录：</blockquote> \"Read my lips: We want to pay taxes,” Chris Lehane, Airbnb’s global head of public policy,told the nation’s mayorsin 2016. In the years since, the home-sharing site has repeated the declaration in press releases,op-eds, emails, and onbillboards. On its website, Airbnb says it is “democratizing revenue by generating tens of millions of new tax dollars for governments all over the world.”But when Palm Beach County, Florida, a popular tourist destination, passed an ordinance in October 2018 requiringAirbnband other short-term rental companies to collect and pay the county’s 6 percent occupancy tax on visits arranged through their sites, Airbnb sued.Palm Beach County tax collector Anne Gannon wasn’t surprised. “We knew we were going to get sued,” she says. “That’s what they do all over the country. It’s their mode of operation.” 3. Reason #3 Valuation, valuation, valuation<blockquote>“看我的嘴唇：我们想要纳税，”爱彼迎全球公共政策主管Chris Lehane在2016年告诉全国市长。自那以后的几年里，这个家庭共享网站在新闻稿、专栏、电子邮件和广告牌上重复了这一声明。爱彼迎在其网站上表示，它正在“通过为世界各地政府创造数千万新税收来实现收入民主化。”但当热门旅游目的地佛罗里达州棕榈滩县于2018年10月通过一项法令，要求Airbnband和其他短期租赁公司对通过其网站安排的访问收取并支付该县6%的占用税时，爱彼迎提起诉讼。棕榈滩县税务员安妮·甘农并不感到惊讶。“我们知道我们会被起诉，”她说。“他们在全国都是这么做的，这是他们的运作模式。”3.理由#3估值，估值，估值</blockquote> If the 3 most important things in real estate are location, location, location. When investing the 3 most important things are valuation, valuation, valuation.<blockquote>如果房地产中最重要的三件事是位置，位置，位置。投资时，最重要的三件事是估值、估值、估值。</blockquote> Despite the similarities between the two companies, investors are paying almost twice for a dollar of revenue for Airbnb compared to Booking.<blockquote>尽管两家公司有相似之处，但与Booking相比，投资者为爱彼迎的一美元收入支付的费用几乎是其两倍。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bd720ee3691841fd400a7aed61f43d4\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据来自YCharts</blockquote> Similarly a quick look to the EV/EBITDA multiples shows again that investors are valuing Airbnb at a huge premium to Booking. Below we show the difference, with EBITDA being the estimate for the coming year (i.e. forward estimate). We do not think it is reasonable to value a dollar of earnings from Airbnb at more that 3x a dollar of earnings for Booking.<blockquote>同样，快速浏览一下EV/EBITDA倍数再次表明，投资者对爱彼迎的估值远远高于预订。下面我们展示了差异，EBITDA是来年的估计（即远期估计）。我们认为，将爱彼迎一美元收益的估值超过Booking一美元收益的3倍是不合理的。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45637bdfb699651c069058ea94f13de1\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据来自YCharts</blockquote> It could be argued by some that the valuation difference is due to faster growth by Airbnb, so we will proceed to compare both companies using a DCF model.<blockquote>有些人可能会认为估值差异是由于爱彼迎增长更快造成的，因此我们将继续使用DCF模型比较两家公司。</blockquote> We used the earnings estimates from Seeking Alpha to build a discounted cash flow model for each. We start with Airbnb where we use more than ten years of analyst estimates, and then we assume an above GDP long-term growth rate of 5%. For the discount rate we use 10% since that is the minimum return we would be willing to accept as investors in the company.<blockquote>我们使用Seeking Alpha的盈利预测为每个项目构建了贴现现金流模型。我们从爱彼迎开始，使用了十多年的分析师估计，然后我们假设GDP长期增长率高于5%。对于贴现率，我们使用10%，因为这是我们作为公司投资者愿意接受的最低回报。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e762de0de40f35d057d488fa9c74c804\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"315\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> Source: Seeking Alpha<blockquote>资料来源：寻求阿尔法</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Fiscal Period Ending</td> <td>EPS Estimate</td> <td># Analysts</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Dec 2021</td> <td>-$1.99</td> <td>26</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Dec 2022</td> <td>-$0.11</td> <td>24</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Dec 2023</td> <td>$0.57</td> <td>18</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Dec 2024</td> <td>$1.27</td> <td>9</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Dec 2025</td> <td>$2.42</td> <td>7</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Dec 2026</td> <td>$3.41</td> <td>5</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Dec 2027</td> <td>$5.25</td> <td>3</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Dec 2028</td> <td>$6.16</td> <td>3</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Dec 2029</td> <td>$7.55</td> <td>2</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Dec 2030</td> <td>$9.02</td> <td>2</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Terminal value</td> <td>$180.40</td> <td>5% growth per year</td> </tr> <tr> <td>DCF value per share</td> <td>$86.02</td> <td>10% discount rate</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> The DCF model result of $86 per share for Airbnb is significantly lower than its recent trading price of ~$150.<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>财政期间结束</td><td>每股收益估计</td><td>#分析师</td></tr><tr><td>2021年12月</td><td>-$1.99</td><td>26</td></tr><tr><td>2022年12月</td><td>-$0.11</td><td>24</td></tr><tr><td>2023年12月</td><td>$0.57</td><td>18</td></tr><tr><td>2024年12月</td><td>$1.27</td><td>9</td></tr><tr><td>2025年12月</td><td>$2.42</td><td>7</td></tr><tr><td>2026年12月</td><td>$3.41</td><td>5</td></tr><tr><td>2027年12月</td><td>$5.25</td><td>3</td></tr><tr><td>2028年12月</td><td>$6.16</td><td>3</td></tr><tr><td>2029年12月</td><td>$7.55</td><td>2</td></tr><tr><td>2030年12月</td><td>$9.02</td><td>2</td></tr><tr><td>终值</td><td>$180.40</td><td>每年增长5%</td></tr><tr><td>每股DCF价值</td><td>$86.02</td><td>10%贴现率</td></tr></tbody></table>爱彼迎的DCF模型结果为每股86美元，明显低于其最近约150美元的交易价格。</blockquote> Repeating the exercise for Booking we obtain an estimated value per share of $3,422 compared to a recent trading price of $2,182. We therefore believe Booking Holdings is trading at a more than 33% discount to fair value, with a very nice margin of safety.<blockquote>重复预订操作，我们获得的每股估计价值为3,422美元，而最近的交易价格为2,182美元。因此，我们认为Booking Holdings的交易价格较公允价值折价超过33%，具有非常好的安全边际。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31691e79c2a880a5a6ef83477d176106\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"315\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> Source: Seeking Alpha<blockquote>资料来源：寻求阿尔法</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Fiscal Period Ending</td> <td>EPS Estimate</td> <td># Analysts</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Dec 2021</td> <td>$40.71</td> <td>29</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Dec 2022</td> <td>$98.10</td> <td>29</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Dec 2023</td> <td>$124.71</td> <td>19</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Dec 2024</td> <td>$142.74</td> <td>6</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Dec 2025</td> <td>$156.53</td> <td>5</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Dec 2026</td> <td>$180.59</td> <td>3</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Dec 2027</td> <td>$201.19</td> <td>2</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Dec 2028</td> <td>$247.76</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Dec 2029</td> <td>$278.76</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Dec 2030</td> <td>$308.11</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Terminal value</td> <td>$6,162.20</td> <td>5% growth per year</td> </tr> <tr> <td>DCF value per share</td> <td>$3,422.16</td> <td>10% discount rate</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Conclusion<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>财政期间结束</td><td>每股收益估计</td><td>#分析师</td></tr><tr><td>2021年12月</td><td>$40.71</td><td>29</td></tr><tr><td>2022年12月</td><td>$98.10</td><td>29</td></tr><tr><td>2023年12月</td><td>$124.71</td><td>19</td></tr><tr><td>2024年12月</td><td>$142.74</td><td>6</td></tr><tr><td>2025年12月</td><td>$156.53</td><td>5</td></tr><tr><td>2026年12月</td><td>$180.59</td><td>3</td></tr><tr><td>2027年12月</td><td>$201.19</td><td>2</td></tr><tr><td>2028年12月</td><td>$247.76</td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>2029年12月</td><td>$278.76</td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>2030年12月</td><td>$308.11</td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>终值</td><td>$6,162.20</td><td>每年增长5%</td></tr><tr><td>每股DCF价值</td><td>$3,422.16</td><td>10%贴现率</td></tr></tbody></table>结论</blockquote> Airbnb and Booking Holdings are both high-quality platform businesses that will likely benefit from the increase in online travel bookings. However, at present time, we think Booking Holdings is the better option thanks to its international strategy, focus on hotels, and more than anything a much more reasonable valuation.<blockquote>爱彼迎和Booking Holdings都是优质的平台业务，可能会受益于在线旅游预订的增长。然而，目前我们认为Booking Holdings是更好的选择，这要归功于其国际战略、专注于酒店，最重要的是估值更合理。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4447055-sell-airbnb-buy-booking-holdings\">seeking alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","BKNG":"Booking Holdings"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4447055-sell-airbnb-buy-booking-holdings","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1103660662","content_text":"We had been waiting for a long time for Airbnb (ABNB) to enter the stock market, as we are fans of its house renting platform, but were deeply disappointed that its shares have never traded at what we consider reasonable prices.\nIt seems we are not the only ones liking their platform, seeing the number of downloads of its app on the Google Play Store exceeding 50 million, and with an average rating of 4.6/5.Source: Google Play Store\nOn the other hand there is Booking Holdings (BKNG), which has traded in the stock market for over 20 years, and has not experienced as much hype recently as Airbnb has. It actually has more downloads and a better app rating than Airbnb. The Booking app has been downloaded more than 100 million times and has a 4.7/5 rating.\nSource: Google Play Store\nBeyond their namesake apps, Airbnb acquired Lastminute.com, and Booking Holdings owns other very popular websites and apps including OpenTable, Kayak, and Agoda.\n1. Reason #1 Business model\nBoth companies have very strong platform business models that benefit from network effects. People looking for travel accommodation tend to search first on the site with more/better options, and property owners tend to list their offerings on the platforms with more users. This creates a powerful network effect that reinforces the dominance of the platform. The main difference in the business model is that while they both compete on demand side of the platform for travelers, on the supply side Booking mostly features hotels while Airbnb has properties owned by individuals. We prefer Booking's focus on hotels given that it is more reliable and has less regulatory risks.\nAnother important business model difference is the market focus. Looking at Alexa.com we see that Airbnb is only the #217 most popular website worldwide, but it is #63 in the United States. Most of its website traffic comes from the USA, with some significant contribution from Japan and Mexico.\n\nSource:Alexa.com\nMeanwhile Booking is a lot more popular internationally, with its website being the #80 in the world, but #108 in the USA. Its website visits are a lot more distributed around the globe, with the USA as the most important contributor, followed by Italy and then Russia.\n\nSource:Alexa.com\nWhile both companies have relatively similar platform business models, we believe the focus on professional supply and international focus is somewhat preferable, but it can be said that both companies operate attractive and successful platforms.\n2. Reason #2 Regulatory issues\nOne big advantage Booking has is that by focusing on hotels it is not at odds with city and national government the way Airbnb is, with many cities battling the company over taxes and zoning rules.\n\nSource: Wired.com\nThere is some nuance to this point, since Booking is starting to add alternative accommodations and Airbnb has lastminute.com which focuses on hotels, but in general it is fair to say that the accommodation supply on Airbnb tends to be more problematic in terms of regulations or lack thereof.\nFor readers interested in a more in depth look at the issues cities have with Airbnb we recommendthis Wired article. Below we include an extract detailing the type of legal issues the company is facing:\n\n \"Read my lips: We want to pay taxes,” Chris Lehane, Airbnb’s global head of public policy,told the nation’s mayorsin 2016. In the years since, the home-sharing site has repeated the declaration in press releases,op-eds, emails, and onbillboards. On its website, Airbnb says it is “democratizing revenue by generating tens of millions of new tax dollars for governments all over the world.”But when Palm Beach County, Florida, a popular tourist destination, passed an ordinance in October 2018 requiringAirbnband other short-term rental companies to collect and pay the county’s 6 percent occupancy tax on visits arranged through their sites, Airbnb sued.Palm Beach County tax collector Anne Gannon wasn’t surprised. “We knew we were going to get sued,” she says. “That’s what they do all over the country. It’s their mode of operation.”\n\n3. Reason #3 Valuation, valuation, valuation\nIf the 3 most important things in real estate are location, location, location. When investing the 3 most important things are valuation, valuation, valuation.\nDespite the similarities between the two companies, investors are paying almost twice for a dollar of revenue for Airbnb compared to Booking.\nData by YCharts\nSimilarly a quick look to the EV/EBITDA multiples shows again that investors are valuing Airbnb at a huge premium to Booking. Below we show the difference, with EBITDA being the estimate for the coming year (i.e. forward estimate). We do not think it is reasonable to value a dollar of earnings from Airbnb at more that 3x a dollar of earnings for Booking.\nData by YCharts\nIt could be argued by some that the valuation difference is due to faster growth by Airbnb, so we will proceed to compare both companies using a DCF model.\nWe used the earnings estimates from Seeking Alpha to build a discounted cash flow model for each. We start with Airbnb where we use more than ten years of analyst estimates, and then we assume an above GDP long-term growth rate of 5%. For the discount rate we use 10% since that is the minimum return we would be willing to accept as investors in the company.\n\nSource: Seeking Alpha\n\n\n\nFiscal Period Ending\nEPS Estimate\n# Analysts\n\n\nDec 2021\n-$1.99\n26\n\n\nDec 2022\n-$0.11\n24\n\n\nDec 2023\n$0.57\n18\n\n\nDec 2024\n$1.27\n9\n\n\nDec 2025\n$2.42\n7\n\n\nDec 2026\n$3.41\n5\n\n\nDec 2027\n$5.25\n3\n\n\nDec 2028\n$6.16\n3\n\n\nDec 2029\n$7.55\n2\n\n\nDec 2030\n$9.02\n2\n\n\nTerminal value\n$180.40\n5% growth per year\n\n\nDCF value per share\n$86.02\n10% discount rate\n\n\n\nThe DCF model result of $86 per share for Airbnb is significantly lower than its recent trading price of ~$150.\nRepeating the exercise for Booking we obtain an estimated value per share of $3,422 compared to a recent trading price of $2,182. We therefore believe Booking Holdings is trading at a more than 33% discount to fair value, with a very nice margin of safety.\n\nSource: Seeking Alpha\n\n\n\nFiscal Period Ending\nEPS Estimate\n# Analysts\n\n\nDec 2021\n$40.71\n29\n\n\nDec 2022\n$98.10\n29\n\n\nDec 2023\n$124.71\n19\n\n\nDec 2024\n$142.74\n6\n\n\nDec 2025\n$156.53\n5\n\n\nDec 2026\n$180.59\n3\n\n\nDec 2027\n$201.19\n2\n\n\nDec 2028\n$247.76\n1\n\n\nDec 2029\n$278.76\n1\n\n\nDec 2030\n$308.11\n1\n\n\nTerminal value\n$6,162.20\n5% growth per year\n\n\nDCF value per share\n$3,422.16\n10% discount rate\n\n\n\nConclusion\nAirbnb and Booking Holdings are both high-quality platform businesses that will likely benefit from the increase in online travel bookings. However, at present time, we think Booking Holdings is the better option thanks to its international strategy, focus on hotels, and more than anything a much more reasonable valuation.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"QNETCN":0.9,"BKNG":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2605,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":14,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}