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MartinKuah
2021-09-10

Airbus

Buying The 20% Dip In Boeing<blockquote>买入波音公司20%的跌幅</blockquote>

Summary Boeing has suffered some recent setbacks and shares are 20% below the YTD high. The Wall St

Buying The 20% Dip In Boeing<blockquote>买入波音公司20%的跌幅</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":883276053,"tweetId":"883276053","gmtCreate":1631249424972,"gmtModify":1632883641507,"author":{"id":3558654025923461,"idStr":"3558654025923461","authorId":3558654025923461,"authorIdStr":"3558654025923461","name":"MartinKuah","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78f32262f3c5e93d76e3fb5e489f8dd2","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":1,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Airbus</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Airbus</body></html>","text":"Airbus","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/883276053","repostId":1112768265,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1112768265","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631246069,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1112768265?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-10 11:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Buying The 20% Dip In Boeing<blockquote>买入波音公司20%的跌幅</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112768265","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nBoeing has suffered some recent setbacks and shares are 20% below the YTD high.\nThe Wall St","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Boeing has suffered some recent setbacks and shares are 20% below the YTD high.</li> <li>The Wall Street consensus outlook is bullish, with a 28% expected 12-month gain.</li> <li>The market-implied outlook (derived from options prices) has improved substantially from early 2021.</li> <li>Despite the recent news, I am shifting to a bullish rating on Boeing.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc2d7054e9e4d9e28d9adde400ba0e81\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">gk-6mt/iStock Editorial via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>波音公司最近遭受了一些挫折，股价比年初至今高点低20%。</li><li>华尔街普遍看好前景，预计12个月涨幅为28%。</li><li>自2021年初以来，市场隐含前景（源自期权价格）已大幅改善。</li><li>尽管最近有这样的消息，我仍将对波音公司的评级转为看涨。</li></ul>gk-6mt/iStock社论来自Getty Images</blockquote> Boeing (BA) has recently been hit with a spate of bad news. First, the company announced that deliveries of the&nbsp;787 Dreamliner had been (further) delayed. Next, Ryanair&nbsp;ended discussions&nbsp;for the purchase of new planes. This comes on the heels of U.K. airline Jet2&nbsp;selecting&nbsp;Airbus(OTCPK:EADSF)&nbsp;rather than Boeing for an order of 32 jets. BA shares are currently trading at $215.20, 20% below the YTD high closing price of $269.19, set on March 12th.<blockquote>波音公司（BA）最近遭遇了一系列坏消息。首先，该公司宣布787梦想飞机的交付被（进一步）推迟。接下来，瑞安航空结束了购买新飞机的讨论。此前，英国航空公司Jet 2选择空客(OTCPK：EADSF)而不是波音订购32架喷气式飞机。BA股价目前交易价格为215.20美元，比3月12日创下的年初至今最高收盘价269.19美元低20%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b74570d3815f4894fc58f3fa861ad031\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"410\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">5-year price history for Boeing (Source: Seeking Alpha)<blockquote>波音公司5年价格历史记录（来源：Seeking Alpha）</blockquote> Investors who bought into BA during the early market response to COVID, when shares went below $100, have done very well. The shares are still far below the pre-COVID levels and the challenge is how to figure out a reasonable strategy with the stock.<blockquote>在市场对新冠疫情的早期反应中，当股价跌破100美元时，买入BA的投资者表现非常好。该股仍远低于新冠疫情爆发前的水平，挑战在于如何制定合理的股票策略。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e006da60ae0e387ad72a82be4682b84a\" tg-width=\"599\" tg-height=\"730\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Performance of BA since my last analysis in January 2021 (Source: Seeking Alpha)<blockquote>自我2021年1月上次分析以来BA的表现（来源：Seeking Alpha）</blockquote> I&nbsp;last analyzed BA&nbsp;on January 17th and I gave the shares a bearish rating. From the publication of that piece until today, BA has returned 2.9% and the S&amp;P 500 has gained 19.6%. Since January, economic conditions have improved substantially, but we are facing a Northern Hemisphere winter with COVID Delta spreading rapidly. In addition, BA’s recent setbacks must be considered. In this piece, I am updating my analysis using the same approach.<blockquote>我上次分析BA是在1月17日，我给了该股看跌评级。从那篇文章发表到今天，英航的回报率为2.9%，标普500的回报率为19.6%。自1月份以来，经济状况大幅改善，但我们正面临着北半球的冬天，COVID Delta迅速蔓延。此外，还必须考虑英航最近的挫折。在这篇文章中，我用同样的方法更新了我的分析。</blockquote> Back in my January analysis, there were several red flags for BA that I cited in my write-up. First, the Wall Street consensus price target projected an 11% gain over 12 months, which seemed like a small expected gain given the high level of risk. Second, there was enormous dispersion in the analyst outlooks, which has been&nbsp;shown to reduce (or even reverse)&nbsp;the predictive value of the consensus. As a rule of thumb, when I see a factor of 2 difference between the highest and lowest analyst price targets, I get concerned. Back then, the lowest price target was less than half the highest. The third major red flag for me was that the consensus view of options traders (derived from options prices) had substantially elevated probabilities of negative returns.<blockquote>早在我一月份的分析中，我在文章中提到了英航的几个危险信号。首先，华尔街一致的目标价预计12个月内将上涨11%，考虑到高风险，这似乎是一个很小的预期涨幅。其次，分析师的前景存在巨大差异，这已被证明会降低（甚至逆转）共识的预测价值。根据经验，当我看到最高和最低分析师目标价之间存在2倍的差异时，我会感到担忧。当时，最低目标价还不到最高目标价的一半。对我来说，第三个主要危险信号是期权交易者的共识观点（源自期权价格）大大增加了负回报的概率。</blockquote> I rely on two forms of consensus outlooks, as discussed above. The Wall Street analyst consensus is widely followed. The market-implied outlook, the options market’s consensus view, provides another viewpoint. The price of an option is the market’s consensus estimate of the probability that the price of the underlying stock will rise (call option) or fall (put option) relative to the option strike price. By analyzing options at a range of strikes, and a common expiration date, it is possible to infer the probabilistic price return outlook that reconciles the options prices. For readers who are not familiar with this approach, I have written an&nbsp;overview, including links to the relevant financial literature.<blockquote>如上所述，我依赖于两种形式的共识观点。华尔街分析师的共识被广泛遵循。市场隐含展望，期权市场的共识观点，提供了另一种观点。期权的价格是市场对标的股票价格相对于期权执行价格上涨（看涨期权期权）或下跌（看跌期权）概率的一致估计。通过分析一系列执行和共同到期日的期权，可以推断出调和期权价格的概率价格回报前景。对于不熟悉这种方法的读者，我写了一个概述，包括相关金融文献的链接。</blockquote> Wall Street Consensus Outlook for BA<blockquote>华尔街对英航的共识前景</blockquote> eTrade’s calculation of the Wall Street consensus combines the views of 15 ranked analysts who have set ratings and price targets within the past 90 days. The consensus rating is bullish and the consensus 12-month price target is 29% above the current price. Even the lowest of the 12-month price targets is 4.75% above the current price. Of the 15 analysts, 8 assign a buy and 7 assign a hold rating. The current analyst outlook is quite a contrast to the one I cited in my&nbsp;previous analysis.<blockquote>eTrade对华尔街共识的计算结合了过去90天内设定评级和价格目标的15位排名分析师的观点。共识评级为看涨，共识12个月目标价比当前价格高出29%。即使是12个月目标价中的最低价格也比当前价格高出4.75%。在15名分析师中，8名给予买入评级，7名给予持有评级。当前分析师的前景与我在之前的分析中引用的前景形成鲜明对比。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d154bd7aaebb18c97a28b2b0f674905a\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"875\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Wall Street analyst consensus and 12-month price target for BA (Source: eTrade)<blockquote>华尔街分析师对BA的共识和12个月目标价（来源：eTrade）</blockquote> Seeking Alpha’s version of the Wall Street consensus is calculated using ratings and price targets from 22 analysts who have set views in the past 90 days. The consensus rating is bullish and the consensus price target is 27% above the current price.<blockquote>Seeking Alpha版本的华尔街共识是根据过去90天内设定观点的22名分析师的评级和价格目标计算得出的。一致评级为看涨，一致目标价较当前价格高出27%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d89f598f3a1a16150c04bc2b130bd5a4\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"645\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Wall Street analyst consensus and 12-month price target for BA (Source: Seeking Alpha)<blockquote>华尔街分析师对BA的共识和12个月目标价（来源：Seeking Alpha）</blockquote> The improvement in the consensus outlook for BA since January is especially notable given the stream of bad news stories.<blockquote>考虑到一连串的坏消息，自一月份以来，英国航空公司普遍前景的改善尤其引人注目。</blockquote> Market-Implied Outlook for BA<blockquote>BA的市场隐含前景</blockquote> I have analysed put and call options at a range of strikes to generate market-implied outlooks into the start of 2022 (using options expiring on January 21, 2022), six months out (options expiring on March 18, 2022), and nine months out (expiring on June 17, 2022). The option trading volume and open interest for BA are high, especially for the options expiring in January. This adds confidence to the meaningfulness of the market-implied outlook. The calculated expected values of the options, using the market-implied outlook, match the market prices of the options very closely (the average difference between the market prices of options and the modeled values is 0.2% for the January and March options, and 0.3% for the June options).<blockquote>我分析了一系列执行情况下的看跌期权和看涨期权期权，以生成2022年初（使用2022年1月21日到期的期权）、六个月后（2022年3月18日到期的期权）和九个月后的市场隐含前景（2022年6月17日到期）。BA的期权交易量和未平仓合约很高，尤其是1月份到期的期权。这为市场隐含前景的意义增添了信心。使用市场隐含前景计算的期权期望值与期权的市场价格非常匹配（1月和3月期权的期权市场价格与建模值之间的平均差异为0.2%，6月期权为0.3%）。</blockquote> The standard presentation of the market-implied outlook is a probability distribution of price returns, with probability on the vertical axis and return on the horizontal axis.<blockquote>市场隐含前景的标准表示是价格回报的概率分布，概率在纵轴上，回报在横轴上。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23145b7ab3bf6ce3d24d3fff1fb9854e\" tg-width=\"618\" tg-height=\"356\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Market-implied price return probabilities for BA for the 4.4-month period from today until January 21, 2022 (Source: Author’s calculations using options quotes from eTrade)<blockquote>从今天到2022年1月21日的4.4个月期间BA的市场隐含价格回报概率（来源：作者使用eTrade期权报价进行计算）</blockquote> The market-implied outlook for the next 4.4 months is generally symmetric, with comparable probabilities of positive and negative returns of the same magnitude. The peak probability corresponds to a price return of +1.75%, but this is not large enough to be meaningful. The annualized volatility derived from this distribution is 38%.<blockquote>未来4.4个月的市场隐含前景总体上是对称的，相同幅度的正回报和负回报的概率相当。峰值概率对应的价格回报为+1.75%，但这还没有大到有意义。由此分布得出的年化波动率为38%。</blockquote> To make it easier to directly compare the probabilities of positive and negative returns, I look at the version of the market-implied probability chart in which I rotate the negative return side of the distribution about the vertical axis (see chart below).<blockquote>为了更容易直接比较正回报和负回报的概率，我查看了市场隐含概率图的版本，其中我绕垂直轴旋转分布的负回报侧（见下图）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f72f2063e003fa4af1a9cae06bfb8486\" tg-width=\"573\" tg-height=\"356\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Market-implied price return probabilities for BA for the 4.4-month period from today until January 21, 2022. The negative return side of the distribution has been rotated about the vertical axis (Source: Author’s calculations using options quotes from eTrade)<blockquote>从今天到2022年1月21日的4.4个月期间BA的市场隐含价格回报概率。分布的负回报侧已绕垂直轴旋转（来源：作者使用eTrade的期权报价进行计算）</blockquote> The probabilities of positive and negative returns of the same magnitude match very closely in the 4.4-month outlook (the solid blue line and the dashed red line are very close to one another). Theoretically, the market-implied outlook should be somewhat negatively biased because risk-averse investors tend to pay more than fair value for downside protection. With this consideration, the 4.4-month market-implied outlook is slightly bullish.<blockquote>在4.4个月的展望中，相同幅度的正回报和负回报的概率非常接近（蓝色实线和红色虚线彼此非常接近）。从理论上讲，市场隐含的前景应该有些负面偏差，因为规避风险的投资者往往会为下行保护支付高于公允价值的费用。考虑到这一点，4.4个月的市场隐含前景略有看涨。</blockquote> Looking out 6.2 months (calculating the market-implied outlook using options expiring on March 18, 2022), there is a shift towards slightly elevated probabilities of negative returns relative to positive returns. Given the (theoretical) tendency towards a negative bias, this market-implied outlook is neutral. The annualized volatility derived from this distribution is 38%.<blockquote>展望6.2个月（使用2022年3月18日到期的期权计算市场隐含前景），相对于正回报，负回报的概率略高。鉴于（理论上）负面偏见的趋势，这种市场隐含的前景是中性的。由此分布得出的年化波动率为38%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab21906a1af9153b4b0020e595e3e866\" tg-width=\"573\" tg-height=\"356\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Market-implied price return probabilities for BA for the 6.2-month period from today until March 18, 2022. The negative return side of the distribution has been rotated about the vertical axis (Source: author’s calculations using options quotes from eTrade)<blockquote>从今天到2022年3月18日的6.2个月期间BA的市场隐含价格回报概率。分布的负回报侧已绕垂直轴旋转（来源：作者使用eTrade的期权报价进行计算）</blockquote> Looking out to June of 2022 (9.2 months into the future), the market-implied outlook has shifted to become somewhat bearish, with meaningfully higher probabilities of negative returns relative to positive returns. The annualized volatility derived from this distribution is 38%.<blockquote>展望2022年6月（未来9.2个月），市场隐含的前景已转向有些看跌，相对于正回报，负回报的概率明显更高。由此分布得出的年化波动率为38%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7827202f1afc0ee691beb9c81c1c3b4\" tg-width=\"573\" tg-height=\"356\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Market-implied price return probabilities for BA for the 9.2-month period from today until June 17, 2022. The negative return side of the distribution has been rotated about the vertical axis (Source: author’s calculations using options quotes from eTrade)<blockquote>从今天到2022年6月17日的9.2个月期间BA的市场隐含价格回报概率。分布的负回报侧已绕垂直轴旋转（来源：作者使用eTrade的期权报价进行计算）</blockquote> The market-implied outlook is modestly bullish over the next 4.4 months, shifting to a neutral outlook over the 6.2-month period, and evolving to become somewhat bearish for the 9.2-month period.<blockquote>市场隐含的前景在未来4.4个月适度看涨，在6.2个月期间转向中性前景，在9.2个月期间演变为有些看跌。</blockquote> Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> Even with the recent litany of bad news, the consensus outlook from Wall Street analysts is bullish, and the consensus 12-month price target for BA is about 28% above the current price. The consensus outlook is markedly more positive than in early 2021. Granted, the consensus rating and price target includes analysis within the past 90 days, so the consensus price targets may not reflect the most current information.<blockquote>尽管最近出现了一连串的坏消息，但华尔街分析师的普遍前景是看涨的，BA的普遍12个月目标价比当前价格高出约28%。共识前景明显比2021年初更加乐观。诚然，共识评级和价格目标包括过去90天内的分析，因此共识价格目标可能无法反映最新信息。</blockquote> The market-implied outlook for BA are slightly bullish into the start of 2022, shifting to neutral by mid-March, and then becoming somewhat bearish by the middle of 2022. The somewhat bullish near-term market-implied outlook reduces my concerns that the Wall Street consensus may not fully reflect recent bad news. The expected volatility derived from the market-implied outlooks is 38% (annualized).<blockquote>英航的市场隐含前景在2022年初略有看涨，到3月中旬转为中性，然后到2022年中期变得有些看跌。近期市场隐含的前景有些看涨，减少了我对华尔街共识可能无法完全反映近期坏消息的担忧。市场隐含前景的预期波动率为38%（年化）。</blockquote> If we take the Wall Street consensus price target at face value, the 28% 12-month expected gain looks like a good bet for a stock with 38% volatility. As a rule of thumb, I look for expected annual return of at least ½ the value of the expected volatility, and BA easily exceeds this criterion. With the substantially bullish Wall Street consensus and the bullish-to-neutral outlook to mid-March, I am changing my overall rating for BA to bullish, although I want to revisit this analysis in early 2022 due to the bearish tilt in the 9-month market-implied outlook.<blockquote>如果我们从表面上看华尔街共识目标价，那么对于一只波动率为38%的股票来说，28%的12个月预期涨幅看起来是一个不错的选择。根据经验，我寻找的预期年回报率至少是预期波动率值的1/2，而BA很容易超过这个标准。鉴于华尔街的普遍看涨共识以及截至3月中旬的看涨至中性前景，我将对BA的总体评级更改为看涨，尽管由于9月份的看跌倾向，我希望在2022年初重新审视这一分析-月市场隐含前景。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Buying The 20% Dip In Boeing<blockquote>买入波音公司20%的跌幅</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBuying The 20% Dip In Boeing<blockquote>买入波音公司20%的跌幅</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-09-10 11:54\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Boeing has suffered some recent setbacks and shares are 20% below the YTD high.</li> <li>The Wall Street consensus outlook is bullish, with a 28% expected 12-month gain.</li> <li>The market-implied outlook (derived from options prices) has improved substantially from early 2021.</li> <li>Despite the recent news, I am shifting to a bullish rating on Boeing.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc2d7054e9e4d9e28d9adde400ba0e81\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">gk-6mt/iStock Editorial via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>波音公司最近遭受了一些挫折，股价比年初至今高点低20%。</li><li>华尔街普遍看好前景，预计12个月涨幅为28%。</li><li>自2021年初以来，市场隐含前景（源自期权价格）已大幅改善。</li><li>尽管最近有这样的消息，我仍将对波音公司的评级转为看涨。</li></ul>gk-6mt/iStock社论来自Getty Images</blockquote> Boeing (BA) has recently been hit with a spate of bad news. First, the company announced that deliveries of the&nbsp;787 Dreamliner had been (further) delayed. Next, Ryanair&nbsp;ended discussions&nbsp;for the purchase of new planes. This comes on the heels of U.K. airline Jet2&nbsp;selecting&nbsp;Airbus(OTCPK:EADSF)&nbsp;rather than Boeing for an order of 32 jets. BA shares are currently trading at $215.20, 20% below the YTD high closing price of $269.19, set on March 12th.<blockquote>波音公司（BA）最近遭遇了一系列坏消息。首先，该公司宣布787梦想飞机的交付被（进一步）推迟。接下来，瑞安航空结束了购买新飞机的讨论。此前，英国航空公司Jet 2选择空客(OTCPK：EADSF)而不是波音订购32架喷气式飞机。BA股价目前交易价格为215.20美元，比3月12日创下的年初至今最高收盘价269.19美元低20%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b74570d3815f4894fc58f3fa861ad031\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"410\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">5-year price history for Boeing (Source: Seeking Alpha)<blockquote>波音公司5年价格历史记录（来源：Seeking Alpha）</blockquote> Investors who bought into BA during the early market response to COVID, when shares went below $100, have done very well. The shares are still far below the pre-COVID levels and the challenge is how to figure out a reasonable strategy with the stock.<blockquote>在市场对新冠疫情的早期反应中，当股价跌破100美元时，买入BA的投资者表现非常好。该股仍远低于新冠疫情爆发前的水平，挑战在于如何制定合理的股票策略。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e006da60ae0e387ad72a82be4682b84a\" tg-width=\"599\" tg-height=\"730\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Performance of BA since my last analysis in January 2021 (Source: Seeking Alpha)<blockquote>自我2021年1月上次分析以来BA的表现（来源：Seeking Alpha）</blockquote> I&nbsp;last analyzed BA&nbsp;on January 17th and I gave the shares a bearish rating. From the publication of that piece until today, BA has returned 2.9% and the S&amp;P 500 has gained 19.6%. Since January, economic conditions have improved substantially, but we are facing a Northern Hemisphere winter with COVID Delta spreading rapidly. In addition, BA’s recent setbacks must be considered. In this piece, I am updating my analysis using the same approach.<blockquote>我上次分析BA是在1月17日，我给了该股看跌评级。从那篇文章发表到今天，英航的回报率为2.9%，标普500的回报率为19.6%。自1月份以来，经济状况大幅改善，但我们正面临着北半球的冬天，COVID Delta迅速蔓延。此外，还必须考虑英航最近的挫折。在这篇文章中，我用同样的方法更新了我的分析。</blockquote> Back in my January analysis, there were several red flags for BA that I cited in my write-up. First, the Wall Street consensus price target projected an 11% gain over 12 months, which seemed like a small expected gain given the high level of risk. Second, there was enormous dispersion in the analyst outlooks, which has been&nbsp;shown to reduce (or even reverse)&nbsp;the predictive value of the consensus. As a rule of thumb, when I see a factor of 2 difference between the highest and lowest analyst price targets, I get concerned. Back then, the lowest price target was less than half the highest. The third major red flag for me was that the consensus view of options traders (derived from options prices) had substantially elevated probabilities of negative returns.<blockquote>早在我一月份的分析中，我在文章中提到了英航的几个危险信号。首先，华尔街一致的目标价预计12个月内将上涨11%，考虑到高风险，这似乎是一个很小的预期涨幅。其次，分析师的前景存在巨大差异，这已被证明会降低（甚至逆转）共识的预测价值。根据经验，当我看到最高和最低分析师目标价之间存在2倍的差异时，我会感到担忧。当时，最低目标价还不到最高目标价的一半。对我来说，第三个主要危险信号是期权交易者的共识观点（源自期权价格）大大增加了负回报的概率。</blockquote> I rely on two forms of consensus outlooks, as discussed above. The Wall Street analyst consensus is widely followed. The market-implied outlook, the options market’s consensus view, provides another viewpoint. The price of an option is the market’s consensus estimate of the probability that the price of the underlying stock will rise (call option) or fall (put option) relative to the option strike price. By analyzing options at a range of strikes, and a common expiration date, it is possible to infer the probabilistic price return outlook that reconciles the options prices. For readers who are not familiar with this approach, I have written an&nbsp;overview, including links to the relevant financial literature.<blockquote>如上所述，我依赖于两种形式的共识观点。华尔街分析师的共识被广泛遵循。市场隐含展望，期权市场的共识观点，提供了另一种观点。期权的价格是市场对标的股票价格相对于期权执行价格上涨（看涨期权期权）或下跌（看跌期权）概率的一致估计。通过分析一系列执行和共同到期日的期权，可以推断出调和期权价格的概率价格回报前景。对于不熟悉这种方法的读者，我写了一个概述，包括相关金融文献的链接。</blockquote> Wall Street Consensus Outlook for BA<blockquote>华尔街对英航的共识前景</blockquote> eTrade’s calculation of the Wall Street consensus combines the views of 15 ranked analysts who have set ratings and price targets within the past 90 days. The consensus rating is bullish and the consensus 12-month price target is 29% above the current price. Even the lowest of the 12-month price targets is 4.75% above the current price. Of the 15 analysts, 8 assign a buy and 7 assign a hold rating. The current analyst outlook is quite a contrast to the one I cited in my&nbsp;previous analysis.<blockquote>eTrade对华尔街共识的计算结合了过去90天内设定评级和价格目标的15位排名分析师的观点。共识评级为看涨，共识12个月目标价比当前价格高出29%。即使是12个月目标价中的最低价格也比当前价格高出4.75%。在15名分析师中，8名给予买入评级，7名给予持有评级。当前分析师的前景与我在之前的分析中引用的前景形成鲜明对比。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d154bd7aaebb18c97a28b2b0f674905a\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"875\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Wall Street analyst consensus and 12-month price target for BA (Source: eTrade)<blockquote>华尔街分析师对BA的共识和12个月目标价（来源：eTrade）</blockquote> Seeking Alpha’s version of the Wall Street consensus is calculated using ratings and price targets from 22 analysts who have set views in the past 90 days. The consensus rating is bullish and the consensus price target is 27% above the current price.<blockquote>Seeking Alpha版本的华尔街共识是根据过去90天内设定观点的22名分析师的评级和价格目标计算得出的。一致评级为看涨，一致目标价较当前价格高出27%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d89f598f3a1a16150c04bc2b130bd5a4\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"645\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Wall Street analyst consensus and 12-month price target for BA (Source: Seeking Alpha)<blockquote>华尔街分析师对BA的共识和12个月目标价（来源：Seeking Alpha）</blockquote> The improvement in the consensus outlook for BA since January is especially notable given the stream of bad news stories.<blockquote>考虑到一连串的坏消息，自一月份以来，英国航空公司普遍前景的改善尤其引人注目。</blockquote> Market-Implied Outlook for BA<blockquote>BA的市场隐含前景</blockquote> I have analysed put and call options at a range of strikes to generate market-implied outlooks into the start of 2022 (using options expiring on January 21, 2022), six months out (options expiring on March 18, 2022), and nine months out (expiring on June 17, 2022). The option trading volume and open interest for BA are high, especially for the options expiring in January. This adds confidence to the meaningfulness of the market-implied outlook. The calculated expected values of the options, using the market-implied outlook, match the market prices of the options very closely (the average difference between the market prices of options and the modeled values is 0.2% for the January and March options, and 0.3% for the June options).<blockquote>我分析了一系列执行情况下的看跌期权和看涨期权期权，以生成2022年初（使用2022年1月21日到期的期权）、六个月后（2022年3月18日到期的期权）和九个月后的市场隐含前景（2022年6月17日到期）。BA的期权交易量和未平仓合约很高，尤其是1月份到期的期权。这为市场隐含前景的意义增添了信心。使用市场隐含前景计算的期权期望值与期权的市场价格非常匹配（1月和3月期权的期权市场价格与建模值之间的平均差异为0.2%，6月期权为0.3%）。</blockquote> The standard presentation of the market-implied outlook is a probability distribution of price returns, with probability on the vertical axis and return on the horizontal axis.<blockquote>市场隐含前景的标准表示是价格回报的概率分布，概率在纵轴上，回报在横轴上。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23145b7ab3bf6ce3d24d3fff1fb9854e\" tg-width=\"618\" tg-height=\"356\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Market-implied price return probabilities for BA for the 4.4-month period from today until January 21, 2022 (Source: Author’s calculations using options quotes from eTrade)<blockquote>从今天到2022年1月21日的4.4个月期间BA的市场隐含价格回报概率（来源：作者使用eTrade期权报价进行计算）</blockquote> The market-implied outlook for the next 4.4 months is generally symmetric, with comparable probabilities of positive and negative returns of the same magnitude. The peak probability corresponds to a price return of +1.75%, but this is not large enough to be meaningful. The annualized volatility derived from this distribution is 38%.<blockquote>未来4.4个月的市场隐含前景总体上是对称的，相同幅度的正回报和负回报的概率相当。峰值概率对应的价格回报为+1.75%，但这还没有大到有意义。由此分布得出的年化波动率为38%。</blockquote> To make it easier to directly compare the probabilities of positive and negative returns, I look at the version of the market-implied probability chart in which I rotate the negative return side of the distribution about the vertical axis (see chart below).<blockquote>为了更容易直接比较正回报和负回报的概率，我查看了市场隐含概率图的版本，其中我绕垂直轴旋转分布的负回报侧（见下图）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f72f2063e003fa4af1a9cae06bfb8486\" tg-width=\"573\" tg-height=\"356\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Market-implied price return probabilities for BA for the 4.4-month period from today until January 21, 2022. The negative return side of the distribution has been rotated about the vertical axis (Source: Author’s calculations using options quotes from eTrade)<blockquote>从今天到2022年1月21日的4.4个月期间BA的市场隐含价格回报概率。分布的负回报侧已绕垂直轴旋转（来源：作者使用eTrade的期权报价进行计算）</blockquote> The probabilities of positive and negative returns of the same magnitude match very closely in the 4.4-month outlook (the solid blue line and the dashed red line are very close to one another). Theoretically, the market-implied outlook should be somewhat negatively biased because risk-averse investors tend to pay more than fair value for downside protection. With this consideration, the 4.4-month market-implied outlook is slightly bullish.<blockquote>在4.4个月的展望中，相同幅度的正回报和负回报的概率非常接近（蓝色实线和红色虚线彼此非常接近）。从理论上讲，市场隐含的前景应该有些负面偏差，因为规避风险的投资者往往会为下行保护支付高于公允价值的费用。考虑到这一点，4.4个月的市场隐含前景略有看涨。</blockquote> Looking out 6.2 months (calculating the market-implied outlook using options expiring on March 18, 2022), there is a shift towards slightly elevated probabilities of negative returns relative to positive returns. Given the (theoretical) tendency towards a negative bias, this market-implied outlook is neutral. The annualized volatility derived from this distribution is 38%.<blockquote>展望6.2个月（使用2022年3月18日到期的期权计算市场隐含前景），相对于正回报，负回报的概率略高。鉴于（理论上）负面偏见的趋势，这种市场隐含的前景是中性的。由此分布得出的年化波动率为38%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab21906a1af9153b4b0020e595e3e866\" tg-width=\"573\" tg-height=\"356\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Market-implied price return probabilities for BA for the 6.2-month period from today until March 18, 2022. The negative return side of the distribution has been rotated about the vertical axis (Source: author’s calculations using options quotes from eTrade)<blockquote>从今天到2022年3月18日的6.2个月期间BA的市场隐含价格回报概率。分布的负回报侧已绕垂直轴旋转（来源：作者使用eTrade的期权报价进行计算）</blockquote> Looking out to June of 2022 (9.2 months into the future), the market-implied outlook has shifted to become somewhat bearish, with meaningfully higher probabilities of negative returns relative to positive returns. The annualized volatility derived from this distribution is 38%.<blockquote>展望2022年6月（未来9.2个月），市场隐含的前景已转向有些看跌，相对于正回报，负回报的概率明显更高。由此分布得出的年化波动率为38%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7827202f1afc0ee691beb9c81c1c3b4\" tg-width=\"573\" tg-height=\"356\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Market-implied price return probabilities for BA for the 9.2-month period from today until June 17, 2022. The negative return side of the distribution has been rotated about the vertical axis (Source: author’s calculations using options quotes from eTrade)<blockquote>从今天到2022年6月17日的9.2个月期间BA的市场隐含价格回报概率。分布的负回报侧已绕垂直轴旋转（来源：作者使用eTrade的期权报价进行计算）</blockquote> The market-implied outlook is modestly bullish over the next 4.4 months, shifting to a neutral outlook over the 6.2-month period, and evolving to become somewhat bearish for the 9.2-month period.<blockquote>市场隐含的前景在未来4.4个月适度看涨，在6.2个月期间转向中性前景，在9.2个月期间演变为有些看跌。</blockquote> Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> Even with the recent litany of bad news, the consensus outlook from Wall Street analysts is bullish, and the consensus 12-month price target for BA is about 28% above the current price. The consensus outlook is markedly more positive than in early 2021. Granted, the consensus rating and price target includes analysis within the past 90 days, so the consensus price targets may not reflect the most current information.<blockquote>尽管最近出现了一连串的坏消息，但华尔街分析师的普遍前景是看涨的，BA的普遍12个月目标价比当前价格高出约28%。共识前景明显比2021年初更加乐观。诚然，共识评级和价格目标包括过去90天内的分析，因此共识价格目标可能无法反映最新信息。</blockquote> The market-implied outlook for BA are slightly bullish into the start of 2022, shifting to neutral by mid-March, and then becoming somewhat bearish by the middle of 2022. The somewhat bullish near-term market-implied outlook reduces my concerns that the Wall Street consensus may not fully reflect recent bad news. The expected volatility derived from the market-implied outlooks is 38% (annualized).<blockquote>英航的市场隐含前景在2022年初略有看涨，到3月中旬转为中性，然后到2022年中期变得有些看跌。近期市场隐含的前景有些看涨，减少了我对华尔街共识可能无法完全反映近期坏消息的担忧。市场隐含前景的预期波动率为38%（年化）。</blockquote> If we take the Wall Street consensus price target at face value, the 28% 12-month expected gain looks like a good bet for a stock with 38% volatility. As a rule of thumb, I look for expected annual return of at least ½ the value of the expected volatility, and BA easily exceeds this criterion. With the substantially bullish Wall Street consensus and the bullish-to-neutral outlook to mid-March, I am changing my overall rating for BA to bullish, although I want to revisit this analysis in early 2022 due to the bearish tilt in the 9-month market-implied outlook.<blockquote>如果我们从表面上看华尔街共识目标价，那么对于一只波动率为38%的股票来说，28%的12个月预期涨幅看起来是一个不错的选择。根据经验，我寻找的预期年回报率至少是预期波动率值的1/2，而BA很容易超过这个标准。鉴于华尔街的普遍看涨共识以及截至3月中旬的看涨至中性前景，我将对BA的总体评级更改为看涨，尽管由于9月份的看跌倾向，我希望在2022年初重新审视这一分析-月市场隐含前景。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4454405-buying-the-20-percent-dip-in-boeing\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BA":"波音"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4454405-buying-the-20-percent-dip-in-boeing","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112768265","content_text":"Summary\n\nBoeing has suffered some recent setbacks and shares are 20% below the YTD high.\nThe Wall Street consensus outlook is bullish, with a 28% expected 12-month gain.\nThe market-implied outlook (derived from options prices) has improved substantially from early 2021.\nDespite the recent news, I am shifting to a bullish rating on Boeing.\n\ngk-6mt/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nBoeing (BA) has recently been hit with a spate of bad news. First, the company announced that deliveries of the 787 Dreamliner had been (further) delayed. Next, Ryanair ended discussions for the purchase of new planes. This comes on the heels of U.K. airline Jet2 selecting Airbus(OTCPK:EADSF) rather than Boeing for an order of 32 jets. BA shares are currently trading at $215.20, 20% below the YTD high closing price of $269.19, set on March 12th.\n5-year price history for Boeing (Source: Seeking Alpha)\nInvestors who bought into BA during the early market response to COVID, when shares went below $100, have done very well. The shares are still far below the pre-COVID levels and the challenge is how to figure out a reasonable strategy with the stock.\nPerformance of BA since my last analysis in January 2021 (Source: Seeking Alpha)\nI last analyzed BA on January 17th and I gave the shares a bearish rating. From the publication of that piece until today, BA has returned 2.9% and the S&P 500 has gained 19.6%. Since January, economic conditions have improved substantially, but we are facing a Northern Hemisphere winter with COVID Delta spreading rapidly. In addition, BA’s recent setbacks must be considered. In this piece, I am updating my analysis using the same approach.\nBack in my January analysis, there were several red flags for BA that I cited in my write-up. First, the Wall Street consensus price target projected an 11% gain over 12 months, which seemed like a small expected gain given the high level of risk. Second, there was enormous dispersion in the analyst outlooks, which has been shown to reduce (or even reverse) the predictive value of the consensus. As a rule of thumb, when I see a factor of 2 difference between the highest and lowest analyst price targets, I get concerned. Back then, the lowest price target was less than half the highest. The third major red flag for me was that the consensus view of options traders (derived from options prices) had substantially elevated probabilities of negative returns.\nI rely on two forms of consensus outlooks, as discussed above. The Wall Street analyst consensus is widely followed. The market-implied outlook, the options market’s consensus view, provides another viewpoint. The price of an option is the market’s consensus estimate of the probability that the price of the underlying stock will rise (call option) or fall (put option) relative to the option strike price. By analyzing options at a range of strikes, and a common expiration date, it is possible to infer the probabilistic price return outlook that reconciles the options prices. For readers who are not familiar with this approach, I have written an overview, including links to the relevant financial literature.\nWall Street Consensus Outlook for BA\neTrade’s calculation of the Wall Street consensus combines the views of 15 ranked analysts who have set ratings and price targets within the past 90 days. The consensus rating is bullish and the consensus 12-month price target is 29% above the current price. Even the lowest of the 12-month price targets is 4.75% above the current price. Of the 15 analysts, 8 assign a buy and 7 assign a hold rating. The current analyst outlook is quite a contrast to the one I cited in my previous analysis.\nWall Street analyst consensus and 12-month price target for BA (Source: eTrade)\nSeeking Alpha’s version of the Wall Street consensus is calculated using ratings and price targets from 22 analysts who have set views in the past 90 days. The consensus rating is bullish and the consensus price target is 27% above the current price.\nWall Street analyst consensus and 12-month price target for BA (Source: Seeking Alpha)\nThe improvement in the consensus outlook for BA since January is especially notable given the stream of bad news stories.\nMarket-Implied Outlook for BA\nI have analysed put and call options at a range of strikes to generate market-implied outlooks into the start of 2022 (using options expiring on January 21, 2022), six months out (options expiring on March 18, 2022), and nine months out (expiring on June 17, 2022). The option trading volume and open interest for BA are high, especially for the options expiring in January. This adds confidence to the meaningfulness of the market-implied outlook. The calculated expected values of the options, using the market-implied outlook, match the market prices of the options very closely (the average difference between the market prices of options and the modeled values is 0.2% for the January and March options, and 0.3% for the June options).\nThe standard presentation of the market-implied outlook is a probability distribution of price returns, with probability on the vertical axis and return on the horizontal axis.\nMarket-implied price return probabilities for BA for the 4.4-month period from today until January 21, 2022 (Source: Author’s calculations using options quotes from eTrade)\nThe market-implied outlook for the next 4.4 months is generally symmetric, with comparable probabilities of positive and negative returns of the same magnitude. The peak probability corresponds to a price return of +1.75%, but this is not large enough to be meaningful. The annualized volatility derived from this distribution is 38%.\nTo make it easier to directly compare the probabilities of positive and negative returns, I look at the version of the market-implied probability chart in which I rotate the negative return side of the distribution about the vertical axis (see chart below).\nMarket-implied price return probabilities for BA for the 4.4-month period from today until January 21, 2022. The negative return side of the distribution has been rotated about the vertical axis (Source: Author’s calculations using options quotes from eTrade)\nThe probabilities of positive and negative returns of the same magnitude match very closely in the 4.4-month outlook (the solid blue line and the dashed red line are very close to one another). Theoretically, the market-implied outlook should be somewhat negatively biased because risk-averse investors tend to pay more than fair value for downside protection. With this consideration, the 4.4-month market-implied outlook is slightly bullish.\nLooking out 6.2 months (calculating the market-implied outlook using options expiring on March 18, 2022), there is a shift towards slightly elevated probabilities of negative returns relative to positive returns. Given the (theoretical) tendency towards a negative bias, this market-implied outlook is neutral. The annualized volatility derived from this distribution is 38%.\nMarket-implied price return probabilities for BA for the 6.2-month period from today until March 18, 2022. The negative return side of the distribution has been rotated about the vertical axis (Source: author’s calculations using options quotes from eTrade)\nLooking out to June of 2022 (9.2 months into the future), the market-implied outlook has shifted to become somewhat bearish, with meaningfully higher probabilities of negative returns relative to positive returns. The annualized volatility derived from this distribution is 38%.\nMarket-implied price return probabilities for BA for the 9.2-month period from today until June 17, 2022. The negative return side of the distribution has been rotated about the vertical axis (Source: author’s calculations using options quotes from eTrade)\nThe market-implied outlook is modestly bullish over the next 4.4 months, shifting to a neutral outlook over the 6.2-month period, and evolving to become somewhat bearish for the 9.2-month period.\nSummary\nEven with the recent litany of bad news, the consensus outlook from Wall Street analysts is bullish, and the consensus 12-month price target for BA is about 28% above the current price. The consensus outlook is markedly more positive than in early 2021. Granted, the consensus rating and price target includes analysis within the past 90 days, so the consensus price targets may not reflect the most current information.\nThe market-implied outlook for BA are slightly bullish into the start of 2022, shifting to neutral by mid-March, and then becoming somewhat bearish by the middle of 2022. The somewhat bullish near-term market-implied outlook reduces my concerns that the Wall Street consensus may not fully reflect recent bad news. The expected volatility derived from the market-implied outlooks is 38% (annualized).\nIf we take the Wall Street consensus price target at face value, the 28% 12-month expected gain looks like a good bet for a stock with 38% volatility. As a rule of thumb, I look for expected annual return of at least ½ the value of the expected volatility, and BA easily exceeds this criterion. With the substantially bullish Wall Street consensus and the bullish-to-neutral outlook to mid-March, I am changing my overall rating for BA to bullish, although I want to revisit this analysis in early 2022 due to the bearish tilt in the 9-month market-implied outlook.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1079,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":6,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}