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2021-09-15

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You might think investors’ extreme bullishness would be good for stocks. This analysis says you’re wrong<blockquote>你可能认为投资者的极度看涨对股市有利。这个分析说你错了</blockquote>

Wall Street’s ‘wall of worry’ needs to get higher for stocks to do the same AFP via Getty Images D

You might think investors’ extreme bullishness would be good for stocks. This analysis says you’re wrong<blockquote>你可能认为投资者的极度看涨对股市有利。这个分析说你错了</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":882515296,"tweetId":"882515296","gmtCreate":1631706806615,"gmtModify":1632806717368,"author":{"id":3586927598172340,"idStr":"3586927598172340","authorId":3586927598172340,"authorIdStr":"3586927598172340","name":"Perumal","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d93dd13e5e16f0b364ef0713d6d419ad","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":0,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Go up</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Go up</body></html>","text":"Go up","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/882515296","repostId":1118561142,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1118561142","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631698272,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1118561142?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-15 17:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"You might think investors’ extreme bullishness would be good for stocks. This analysis says you’re wrong<blockquote>你可能认为投资者的极度看涨对股市有利。这个分析说你错了</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1118561142","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Wall Street’s ‘wall of worry’ needs to get higher for stocks to do the same \nAFP via Getty Images\n\nD","content":"Wall Street’s ‘wall of worry’ needs to get higher for stocks to do the same <blockquote>华尔街的“担忧之墙”需要走高，股市才能做同样的事情</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e9654a9ae3181ab6a3c529ae7a25c44\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">AFP via Getty Images<blockquote>法新社来自盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Don’t expect U.S. stocks to mount anything more than an anemic rally in coming weeks. That’s because there’s still too much bullish sentiment. According to contrarian analysis, the most impressive rallies begin when there is widespread pessimism, just as market risk is highest when there is widespread optimism.<blockquote>不要指望美国股市在未来几周内只会出现乏力的反弹。那是因为仍然有太多的看涨情绪。根据逆向分析，当普遍存在悲观情绪时，最令人印象深刻的反弹开始，正如当普遍存在乐观情绪时，市场风险最高。</blockquote> The chart below paints the picture. It plots the average recommended equity exposure level among a subset of Nasdaq-focused stock market timers I monitor (as measured by the Hulbert Nasdaq Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HNNSI). The HNNSI is my most sensitive barometer of stock market sentiment.<blockquote>下面的图表描绘了这幅画面。它绘制了我监测的专注于纳斯达克的股市计时器子集的平均推荐股票敞口水平（通过赫伯特·纳斯达克时事通讯情绪指数（HNNSI）衡量）。HNNSI是我最敏感的股市情绪晴雨表。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3534bfc17ea666411eaeb10187386c49\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"587\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Notice that March of 2020 was the last time that there was widespread pessimism, as defined by the HNNSI being in the lowest 10% of the historical distribution (the lower shaded box in the chart). Over the 18 months since then, in contrast, there have been many occasions in which the market timers were excessively bullish — as defined by the HNNSI being in the highest 10% of the historical distribution (the higher shaded box).<blockquote>请注意，2020年3月是最后一次普遍悲观情绪，定义为HNNSI处于历史分布的最低10%（图表中较低的阴影框）。相比之下，在此后的18个月里，市场计时器多次过度看涨——定义为HNNSI处于历史分布的最高10%（较高的阴影框）。</blockquote> Earlier this month was the most recent such occasion. Since then, the Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;and the NASDAQ Composite index have both fallen 2%.<blockquote>本月早些时候是最近一次这样的场合。此后，道琼斯工业平均指数和纳斯达克综合指数均下跌2%。</blockquote> This decline provided a good opportunity to assess the strength of the bullishness held by the market timers. It would have been a good sign, from a contrarian perspective, if these timers had reacted to last week’s weakness by running for the exits. That would have suggested that their erstwhile bullishness was skittishly held; that’s far different from the stubbornly-held bullishness that is particularly toxic. But that didn’t happen, as you can see from the chart.<blockquote>这次下跌提供了一个很好的机会来评估市场计时器持有的看涨情绪的强度。从逆向思维的角度来看，如果这些计时器对上周的疲软做出反应，纷纷退出，这将是一个好兆头。这表明他们以前的看涨情绪被动摇了；这与顽固的看涨情绪有很大不同，后者尤其有毒。但这并没有发生，正如你从图表中看到的那样。</blockquote> In fact, the HNNSI has carved out a pattern of higher lows in recent months. That means that the average Nasdaq market timer has grown progressively more confident that any decline is nothing to worry about and should instead be treated as a buying opportunity. As a result, the sentiment foundation beneath the bull market is becoming weaker and weaker.<blockquote>事实上，近几个月来，HNNSI已经形成了更高低点的模式。这意味着纳斯达克市场的普通计时器越来越有信心，认为任何下跌都无需担心，而应该被视为买入机会。如此一来，牛市背后的情绪基础越来越弱。</blockquote> Watch what they do<blockquote>看他们做什么</blockquote> You may wonder how to square this conclusion with that of a recent Deutsche Bank survey, which found a growing “wall of worry” among 550 global market professionals. Specifically, a majority of them now say that they expect a 5% to 10% market pullback between now and the end of the year.<blockquote>你可能想知道如何将这一结论与德意志银行最近的一项调查相一致，该调查发现，在550名全球市场专业人士中，“担忧之墙”越来越大。具体来说，他们中的大多数人现在表示，他们预计从现在到年底市场将回调5%至10%。</blockquote> My explanation: The HNNSI reflects what market timers are doing, as opposed to what they are saying. It’s one thing for an adviser to say where he thinks the market will be at the end of the year, and quite another to increase or decrease his equity exposure level. Though the Deutsche Bank survey doesn’t report the average equity exposure level among the 550 professionals who participated, I’m confident that, on average, they have not significantly increased their recommended cash level.<blockquote>我的解释是：HNNSI反映了市场计时器在做什么，而不是他们在说什么。对于顾问来说，说出他认为年底市场的走势是一回事，增加或减少他的股票敞口水平则是另一回事。尽管德意志银行的调查没有报告参与的550名专业人士的平均股票敞口水平，但我相信，平均而言，他们并没有显着增加建议的现金水平。</blockquote> Over the years, we have found that actions speak louder than words. Average exposure levels tell us more about prevailing market sentiment than opinions, so it behooves contrarians to pay attention to what advisers are doing as opposed to what they’re saying.<blockquote>这些年来，我们发现行动胜于雄辩。平均风险敞口水平比观点更能告诉我们当前的市场情绪，因此逆向投资者应该关注顾问在做什么，而不是他们在说什么。</blockquote> Even though a growing number of market professionals may be expressing concern, they appear not to be concerned enough to make big changes to their portfolios. Only when they are that concerned will contrarians become confident that a strong rally is imminent.<blockquote>尽管越来越多的市场专业人士可能表达了担忧，但他们似乎还没有足够的担忧来对自己的投资组合做出重大改变。只有当他们如此担心时，逆向投资者才会相信强劲的反弹即将到来。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>You might think investors’ extreme bullishness would be good for stocks. This analysis says you’re wrong<blockquote>你可能认为投资者的极度看涨对股市有利。这个分析说你错了</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nYou might think investors’ extreme bullishness would be good for stocks. This analysis says you’re wrong<blockquote>你可能认为投资者的极度看涨对股市有利。这个分析说你错了</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-09-15 17:31\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nWall Street’s ‘wall of worry’ needs to get higher for stocks to do the same <blockquote>华尔街的“担忧之墙”需要走高，股市才能做同样的事情</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e9654a9ae3181ab6a3c529ae7a25c44\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">AFP via Getty Images<blockquote>法新社来自盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Don’t expect U.S. stocks to mount anything more than an anemic rally in coming weeks. That’s because there’s still too much bullish sentiment. According to contrarian analysis, the most impressive rallies begin when there is widespread pessimism, just as market risk is highest when there is widespread optimism.<blockquote>不要指望美国股市在未来几周内只会出现乏力的反弹。那是因为仍然有太多的看涨情绪。根据逆向分析，当普遍存在悲观情绪时，最令人印象深刻的反弹开始，正如当普遍存在乐观情绪时，市场风险最高。</blockquote> The chart below paints the picture. It plots the average recommended equity exposure level among a subset of Nasdaq-focused stock market timers I monitor (as measured by the Hulbert Nasdaq Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HNNSI). The HNNSI is my most sensitive barometer of stock market sentiment.<blockquote>下面的图表描绘了这幅画面。它绘制了我监测的专注于纳斯达克的股市计时器子集的平均推荐股票敞口水平（通过赫伯特·纳斯达克时事通讯情绪指数（HNNSI）衡量）。HNNSI是我最敏感的股市情绪晴雨表。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3534bfc17ea666411eaeb10187386c49\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"587\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Notice that March of 2020 was the last time that there was widespread pessimism, as defined by the HNNSI being in the lowest 10% of the historical distribution (the lower shaded box in the chart). Over the 18 months since then, in contrast, there have been many occasions in which the market timers were excessively bullish — as defined by the HNNSI being in the highest 10% of the historical distribution (the higher shaded box).<blockquote>请注意，2020年3月是最后一次普遍悲观情绪，定义为HNNSI处于历史分布的最低10%（图表中较低的阴影框）。相比之下，在此后的18个月里，市场计时器多次过度看涨——定义为HNNSI处于历史分布的最高10%（较高的阴影框）。</blockquote> Earlier this month was the most recent such occasion. Since then, the Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;and the NASDAQ Composite index have both fallen 2%.<blockquote>本月早些时候是最近一次这样的场合。此后，道琼斯工业平均指数和纳斯达克综合指数均下跌2%。</blockquote> This decline provided a good opportunity to assess the strength of the bullishness held by the market timers. It would have been a good sign, from a contrarian perspective, if these timers had reacted to last week’s weakness by running for the exits. That would have suggested that their erstwhile bullishness was skittishly held; that’s far different from the stubbornly-held bullishness that is particularly toxic. But that didn’t happen, as you can see from the chart.<blockquote>这次下跌提供了一个很好的机会来评估市场计时器持有的看涨情绪的强度。从逆向思维的角度来看，如果这些计时器对上周的疲软做出反应，纷纷退出，这将是一个好兆头。这表明他们以前的看涨情绪被动摇了；这与顽固的看涨情绪有很大不同，后者尤其有毒。但这并没有发生，正如你从图表中看到的那样。</blockquote> In fact, the HNNSI has carved out a pattern of higher lows in recent months. That means that the average Nasdaq market timer has grown progressively more confident that any decline is nothing to worry about and should instead be treated as a buying opportunity. As a result, the sentiment foundation beneath the bull market is becoming weaker and weaker.<blockquote>事实上，近几个月来，HNNSI已经形成了更高低点的模式。这意味着纳斯达克市场的普通计时器越来越有信心，认为任何下跌都无需担心，而应该被视为买入机会。如此一来，牛市背后的情绪基础越来越弱。</blockquote> Watch what they do<blockquote>看他们做什么</blockquote> You may wonder how to square this conclusion with that of a recent Deutsche Bank survey, which found a growing “wall of worry” among 550 global market professionals. Specifically, a majority of them now say that they expect a 5% to 10% market pullback between now and the end of the year.<blockquote>你可能想知道如何将这一结论与德意志银行最近的一项调查相一致，该调查发现，在550名全球市场专业人士中，“担忧之墙”越来越大。具体来说，他们中的大多数人现在表示，他们预计从现在到年底市场将回调5%至10%。</blockquote> My explanation: The HNNSI reflects what market timers are doing, as opposed to what they are saying. It’s one thing for an adviser to say where he thinks the market will be at the end of the year, and quite another to increase or decrease his equity exposure level. Though the Deutsche Bank survey doesn’t report the average equity exposure level among the 550 professionals who participated, I’m confident that, on average, they have not significantly increased their recommended cash level.<blockquote>我的解释是：HNNSI反映了市场计时器在做什么，而不是他们在说什么。对于顾问来说，说出他认为年底市场的走势是一回事，增加或减少他的股票敞口水平则是另一回事。尽管德意志银行的调查没有报告参与的550名专业人士的平均股票敞口水平，但我相信，平均而言，他们并没有显着增加建议的现金水平。</blockquote> Over the years, we have found that actions speak louder than words. Average exposure levels tell us more about prevailing market sentiment than opinions, so it behooves contrarians to pay attention to what advisers are doing as opposed to what they’re saying.<blockquote>这些年来，我们发现行动胜于雄辩。平均风险敞口水平比观点更能告诉我们当前的市场情绪，因此逆向投资者应该关注顾问在做什么，而不是他们在说什么。</blockquote> Even though a growing number of market professionals may be expressing concern, they appear not to be concerned enough to make big changes to their portfolios. Only when they are that concerned will contrarians become confident that a strong rally is imminent.<blockquote>尽管越来越多的市场专业人士可能表达了担忧，但他们似乎还没有足够的担忧来对自己的投资组合做出重大改变。只有当他们如此担心时，逆向投资者才会相信强劲的反弹即将到来。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/investors-are-still-too-bullish-for-the-stock-market-to-rally-from-here-11631634536?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/investors-are-still-too-bullish-for-the-stock-market-to-rally-from-here-11631634536?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1118561142","content_text":"Wall Street’s ‘wall of worry’ needs to get higher for stocks to do the same \nAFP via Getty Images\n\nDon’t expect U.S. stocks to mount anything more than an anemic rally in coming weeks. That’s because there’s still too much bullish sentiment. According to contrarian analysis, the most impressive rallies begin when there is widespread pessimism, just as market risk is highest when there is widespread optimism.\nThe chart below paints the picture. It plots the average recommended equity exposure level among a subset of Nasdaq-focused stock market timers I monitor (as measured by the Hulbert Nasdaq Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HNNSI). The HNNSI is my most sensitive barometer of stock market sentiment.\n\n\nNotice that March of 2020 was the last time that there was widespread pessimism, as defined by the HNNSI being in the lowest 10% of the historical distribution (the lower shaded box in the chart). Over the 18 months since then, in contrast, there have been many occasions in which the market timers were excessively bullish — as defined by the HNNSI being in the highest 10% of the historical distribution (the higher shaded box).\nEarlier this month was the most recent such occasion. Since then, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the NASDAQ Composite index have both fallen 2%.\n\nThis decline provided a good opportunity to assess the strength of the bullishness held by the market timers. It would have been a good sign, from a contrarian perspective, if these timers had reacted to last week’s weakness by running for the exits. That would have suggested that their erstwhile bullishness was skittishly held; that’s far different from the stubbornly-held bullishness that is particularly toxic. But that didn’t happen, as you can see from the chart.\nIn fact, the HNNSI has carved out a pattern of higher lows in recent months. That means that the average Nasdaq market timer has grown progressively more confident that any decline is nothing to worry about and should instead be treated as a buying opportunity. As a result, the sentiment foundation beneath the bull market is becoming weaker and weaker.\nWatch what they do\nYou may wonder how to square this conclusion with that of a recent Deutsche Bank survey, which found a growing “wall of worry” among 550 global market professionals. Specifically, a majority of them now say that they expect a 5% to 10% market pullback between now and the end of the year.\n\nMy explanation: The HNNSI reflects what market timers are doing, as opposed to what they are saying. It’s one thing for an adviser to say where he thinks the market will be at the end of the year, and quite another to increase or decrease his equity exposure level. Though the Deutsche Bank survey doesn’t report the average equity exposure level among the 550 professionals who participated, I’m confident that, on average, they have not significantly increased their recommended cash level.\nOver the years, we have found that actions speak louder than words. Average exposure levels tell us more about prevailing market sentiment than opinions, so it behooves contrarians to pay attention to what advisers are doing as opposed to what they’re saying.\nEven though a growing number of market professionals may be expressing concern, they appear not to be concerned enough to make big changes to their portfolios. Only when they are that concerned will contrarians become confident that a strong rally is imminent.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1230,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}

You might think investors’ extreme bullishness would be good for stocks. This analysis says you’re wrong<blockquote>你可能认为投资者的极度看涨对股市有利。这个分析说你错了</blockquote>

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