Definitely. The potential for _老虎社区_美港股上老虎

DylanX
2021-09-08

Definitely. The potential for SEA is huge.

Is Sea Limited Stock A Good Buy For The Long-Term?<blockquote>从长远来看，Sea Limited股票值得买入吗？</blockquote>

Summary Sea Limited is a very high-quality growth stock that surprisingly receives less attention t

Is Sea Limited Stock A Good Buy For The Long-Term?<blockquote>从长远来看，Sea Limited股票值得买入吗？</blockquote>

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The potential for SEA is huge.","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/880406178","repostId":1120889633,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1120889633","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631068652,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1120889633?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-08 10:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Sea Limited Stock A Good Buy For The Long-Term?<blockquote>从长远来看，Sea Limited股票值得买入吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120889633","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nSea Limited is a very high-quality growth stock that surprisingly receives less attention t","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Sea Limited is a very high-quality growth stock that surprisingly receives less attention than Alibaba, MercadoLibre, and Amazon, even though it has outperformed all of them, hands down.</li> <li>We help investors understand the key metrics in a useful analytical framework to evaluate Sea Limited's growth opportunities and whether it is worthy of a long-term position.</li> <li>Lastly, we present our valuation argument to help our readers to decide whether they should add Sea Limited stock right now.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6050b357f1df083177d9ed6c9d848071\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1163\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">nuttapong/iStock Editorial via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>Sea Limited是一只非常优质的成长型股票，令人惊讶的是，它受到的关注度低于阿里巴巴-SW、MercadoLibre和Amazon，尽管它的表现无疑优于所有这些股票。</li><li>我们帮助投资者在有用的分析框架中了解关键指标，以评估Sea Limited的增长机会以及是否值得长期持有。</li><li>最后，我们提出我们的估值论点，以帮助我们的读者决定是否应该立即添加Sea Limited股票。</li></ul>nuttapong/iStock社论来自Getty Images</blockquote> Investment Thesis<blockquote>投资论文</blockquote> Sea Limited(NYSE:SE)is one of our core holdings in our growth portfolio and one that we have taken the opportunity to add on major dips in the uptrend over the last year as the stock's incredible momentum saw it easily outperforming its e-commerce peers and mobile gaming peers.<blockquote>Sea Limited（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SE）是我们增长投资组合中的核心持股之一，也是我们在去年上升趋势大幅下跌时借此机会增持的股票之一，因为该股令人难以置信的势头使其轻松超越了电子商务同行和移动游戏同行。</blockquote> For growth investors, Sea's incredible growth trajectory has been truly phenomenal, coupled with it being free of Beijing's oversights that saw its Chinese peers fall like dominoes, stunning even institutional investors with the pace of the government's \"rectification\" adjustments.<blockquote>对于成长型投资者来说，Sea令人难以置信的增长轨迹确实是惊人的，再加上它没有受到北京方面的监管，导致其中国同行像多米诺骨牌一样倒下，政府“整改”调整的步伐甚至让机构投资者感到震惊。</blockquote> Sea's ascent has also been somewhat of a conundrum for value investors, as they don't get how an unprofitable company can be trading at such sky-high valuations without consequences.<blockquote>Sea的崛起对价值投资者来说也是一个难题，因为他们不明白一家不盈利的公司如何能够以如此高的估值进行交易而不承担任何后果。</blockquote> Therefore, to answer whether Sea Limited stock is a good long-term buy for investors, we will show our readers how to apply the appropriate analytical framework and valuation treatment to the company, based on its performance and its projections moving forward, so that investors can make meaningful decisions on whether they think Sea Limited is a worthy long-term addition to their portfolio now.<blockquote>因此，为了回答Sea Limited股票是否适合投资者长期买入，我们将向读者展示如何根据其业绩和未来预测对该公司应用适当的分析框架和估值处理，以便投资者可以就他们是否认为Sea Limited现在是其投资组合中值得的长期补充做出有意义的决定。</blockquote> For investors who are new to Sea Limited, we have recently written several articles on the company, which you can refer to them as a preamble.<blockquote>对于刚接触Sea Limited的投资者，我们最近写了几篇关于该公司的文章，您可以将其作为序言参考。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0396874197381d0fc087a864425a26d9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Sea &amp; Peers' stock YTD performance (as of 3 Sep 21)<blockquote>Sea&amp;Peers股票年初至今表现（截至21年9月3日）</blockquote> This year, Sea has been one of our portfolio's leading performers as the stock raced to an 83% YTD lead that easily outperformed all its peers and SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF(NYSEARCA:SPY). This performance is even more incredible because it came off an outstanding 2020, where it also outperformed with a 392% return.<blockquote>今年，Sea一直是我们投资组合中表现领先的股票之一，该股年初至今领先83%，轻松跑赢所有同行和SPDR标普500 ETF（NYSEARCA：SPDR标普500指数ETF）。这一表现更加令人难以置信，因为它在2020年表现出色，并以392%的回报率表现出色。</blockquote> While the rest of its American and Chinese peers often received more coverage than this Singapore-headquartered company, it has been Sea which has been quietly delivering. It has been executing, expanding its Garena gaming ecosystem, and reaching new milestones. It's been scaling its e-commerce footprint to LatAm and demonstrating to Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)&nbsp;that they are not experiencing any reopening headwinds. This is in contrast to what&nbsp;Amazon indicated&nbsp;in its recent earnings. The company is also growing its Sea Money footprint, especially through the Shopee/Shopee Pay flywheel, as the company stakes its FinTech leadership ambitions against Southeast Asia's FinTech leader Grab(NASDAQ:AGC).<blockquote>虽然其他美国和中国同行往往比这家总部位于新加坡的公司获得更多的报道，但Sea一直在悄悄地提供服务。它一直在执行，扩大其Garena游戏生态系统，并达到新的里程碑。该公司一直在将其电子商务业务扩展到拉丁美洲，并向亚马逊（纳斯达克股票代码：AMZN）证明他们没有遇到任何重新开放的阻力。这与亚马逊在最近的财报中表示的情况形成鲜明对比。该公司还在扩大其Sea Money足迹，特别是通过Shopee/Shopee Pay飞轮，因为该公司将其金融科技领导地位的雄心与东南亚金融科技领导者Grab（纳斯达克：AGC）进行了较量。</blockquote> As a result of Sea Limited's incredible success, the group's China-born CEO&nbsp;Forrest Li&nbsp;is also now Singapore's richest man with a net worth of $20.3B.<blockquote>由于Sea Limited取得了令人难以置信的成功，该集团出生于中国的首席执行官Forrest Li现在也以203亿美元的净资产成为新加坡首富。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1620f0a51f5f3cdb4a59c482df5ec1f1\" tg-width=\"380\" tg-height=\"236\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">SE quant rating (momentum). Source: Seeking Alpha Premium<blockquote>SE量化评级（动量）。资料来源：寻求Alpha Premium</blockquote> We have always reminded investors that Sea stock is one that you should never bet against even if you are bearish on its long-term prognosis. The stock has made one of the strongest upside moves we have seen for stocks in our growth portfolio. This is also corroborated by Seeking Alpha's proprietary quant momentum rating, giving it the best possible A+ grade on its most recent performance.<blockquote>我们一直提醒投资者，即使您看跌Sea股票的长期预测，您也不应该做空Sea股票。该股是我们成长型投资组合中股票中最强劲的上涨走势之一。Seeking Alpha专有的量化动量评级也证实了这一点，对其最近的表现给予了最好的A+评级。</blockquote> Given the company and the stock's stupendous performances so far, we think it's only apt that investors ask whether SE's future optimism has been largely priced in, which is especially important for new investors who have yet to add its stock, where we will highlight the analytical framework on how investors can use to consider the company's prospects moving forward.<blockquote>鉴于该公司及其股票迄今为止的惊人表现，我们认为投资者询问SE未来的乐观情绪是否已在很大程度上被消化是恰当的，这对于尚未增持其股票的新投资者来说尤其重要，我们将重点介绍投资者如何考虑公司未来前景的分析框架。</blockquote> Monitor Its Revenue Growth Closely<blockquote>密切监控其收入增长</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e796ddaf599085b7ad02d64a84dd3b87\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Sea Limited quarterly revenue. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ<blockquote>Sea Limited季度收入。数据来源：标普资本智商</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6ddcbf7578338f88c00c9432ab58f23\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Sea Limited quarterly revenue YoY growth. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ<blockquote>Sea Limited季度收入同比增长。数据来源：标普资本智商</blockquote> Sea Limited impressed with another awesome quarter of topline growth as total revenue grew 159% YoY on revenue of $2.28B. Its QoQ performance was also remarkable with a 29% QoQ growth, as the company shows that its gangbusters growth knows \"no limit.\"<blockquote>Sea Limited对又一个令人惊叹的季度营收增长印象深刻，总收入同比增长159%，收入为$2.28 B。其环比业绩也非常出色，环比增长29%，因为该公司表明其强劲的增长“没有限制”。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60c7db30aeda80ea916ef8aa2816c93e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Sea Limited GAAP quarterly operating margins. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ<blockquote>Sea Limited GAAP季度营业利润率。数据来源：标普资本智商</blockquote> For companies like Sea, whose strategy is still focused very much on topline growth and building scale efficiencies in the process, we should not be too concerned with its negative operating margins, as long as the company clearly demonstrated that it could grow rapidly like in Sea's case, and also achieve economies of scale through ramping revenue as it seeks out its \"blue oceans.\" We also articulated this point in a recent article on Snowflake(NYSE:SNOW), which operates in a huge market with a massive opportunity to expand, and the firm has shown that it can execute its strategies very well to capture those revenue opportunities&nbsp;despite having negative operating margins right now.<blockquote>对于像Sea这样的公司来说，其战略仍然非常注重营收增长并在此过程中建立规模效率，我们不应该太担心其负营业利润率，只要该公司清楚地证明它可以像Sea那样快速增长案例，并在寻求“蓝海”时通过增加收入来实现规模经济。我们在最近一篇关于Snowflake（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SNOW）的文章中也阐明了这一点，该公司在一个巨大的市场中运营，拥有巨大的扩张机会，并且该公司已经表明，尽管目前营业利润率为负，但它可以很好地执行其战略来抓住这些收入机会。</blockquote> Therefore, Sea Limited has certainly struck the right notes here, and we see no cause for concern so far. What matters for investors now is whether the company is still expected to grow this rapidly moving forward.<blockquote>因此，Sea Limited在这方面无疑是正确的，到目前为止我们认为没有理由担心。现在对投资者来说重要的是该公司是否仍有望如此快速地发展。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f1bb9296424b15e07d5536227010fd4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Sea Limited revenue mean consensus estimates. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ<blockquote>Sea Limited收入意味着共识估计。数据来源：标普资本智商</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5efed61b23216e709291326ae9eac3b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"291\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Sea Limited consensus revenue estimates revision trend. Source: Seeking Alpha Premium<blockquote>Sea Limited共识收入预估修正趋势。资料来源：寻求Alpha Premium</blockquote> Readers should easily glean that the Street upgraded revenue forecasts for the company after Q2's earnings release from what they projected post Q1 earnings. For example, revenue projection for FY21 has been increased by 11.5% to reflect the improved guidance from the company. Even though projections for FY24 to FY25 look rather tepid, readers should note that only three analysts covered the FY24 projections, while only two covered for FY25, compared to the 18-21 analysts who covered FY21 to FY23 numbers. As a result, we will also focus our discussion up to FY23 numbers to keep them meaningful.<blockquote>读者应该很容易发现，华尔街在第二季度财报发布后上调了该公司的收入预测，高于第一季度财报发布后的预测。例如，2021财年的收入预测增加了11.5%，以反映公司指导的改进。尽管对2024财年至2025财年的预测看起来相当不温不火，但读者应该注意到，只有三名分析师报道了2024财年的预测，而只有两名分析师报道了2025财年的预测，而有18-21名分析师报道了2021财年至2023财年的数据。因此，我们也将把讨论的重点放在2023财年数字上，以保持它们的意义。</blockquote> The expected revenue CAGR from FY20 to FY23 is 59.1%, while it reads 40.1% from FY21 to FY23. Therefore, the market is still expecting Sea Limited to deliver remarkable topline growth rates moving forward.At the same time, we are cautiously optimistic about Sea Limited's future, under the skillful stewardship of Group CEO Forrest Li and his management team. The team includes his two very competent business unit chiefs&nbsp;Chris Feng&nbsp;and Terry Zhao. Feng was born in China and leads Shopee and Sea Money. He is a Stanford alumnus like Li and he was recruited from Lazada(NYSE:BABA)by Li in 2014. Feng is said to be a “very, very smart and very, very confident” person who “reacts quickly and has excellent abilities of recall.” Zhao is the president of Garena. Li has kept Zhao by his side since the company's inception. Li is unlike Alibaba's Jack Ma and prefers to keep a&nbsp;modest&nbsp;profile. Still, his team's execution has been nothing short of outstanding, and we see no reason to think otherwise moving forward for this founder-led company.<blockquote>2023财年2020财年的预期收入复合年增长率为59.1%，而2023财年2021财年的预期收入复合年增长率为40.1%。因此，市场仍预计Sea Limited未来将实现显着的营收增长率。与此同时，在集团首席执行官Forrest Li及其管理团队的娴熟管理下，我们对Sea Limited的未来持谨慎乐观态度。该团队包括他的两位非常能干的业务部门主管Chris Feng和Terry Zhao。冯出生于中国，领导Shopee和Sea Money。他和李一样都是斯坦福大学校友，2014年被李从Lazada（纽约证券交易所股票代码：BABA）招聘。据说冯是一个“非常、非常聪明、非常、非常自信”的人，“反应迅速，回忆能力极佳”。赵是Garena的总裁。自公司成立以来，李某一直将赵留在身边。李与阿里巴巴-SW的马云不同，他更喜欢保持谦虚的形象。尽管如此，他的团队的执行力仍然非常出色，我们认为没有理由对这家创始人领导的公司抱有其他想法。</blockquote> Keep a Close Watch on Shopee's Adj. EBITDA<blockquote>密切关注Shopee的调整后。息税折旧及摊销前利润</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/070f4ed8c5f05a52744d9e20681865ce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Quarterly Adj. EBITDA. Data source: Company filings<blockquote>季度调整。息税折旧及摊销前利润。数据来源：公司备案</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a03828e68bf8d41a26be65d7ac633670\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Quarterly Adj. EBITDA by segments. Data source: Company filings<blockquote>季度调整。按部门划分的EBITDA。数据来源：公司备案</blockquote> Of particular concern, though, is that the company's Adj. EBITDA turned negative for the first time since Q2'20 as the increase in Adj. EBITDA losses from Shopee were greater than what Garena could cover in Q2'21. Investors should be able to glean from the second chart where it shows that Shopee's Adj. EBITDA losses increased to $679.77M in Q2'21, representing a 64.8% QoQ increase, while Garena's Adj. EBITDA only managed a 3.3% QoQ increase in Q2'21.<blockquote>不过，特别令人担忧的是，该公司的调整后。由于调整后的增长，EBITDA自20年第二季度以来首次转为负值。Shopee的EBITDA损失大于Garena在21年第二季度所能弥补的损失。投资者应该能够从第二张图表中收集信息，该图表显示Shopee的调整后。21年第二季度EBITDA亏损增至6.7977亿美元，环比增长64.8%，而Garena的调整后亏损。21年第二季度EBITDA仅环比增长3.3%。</blockquote> Despite this observation, the company highlighted that its Malaysia market had turned Adj. EBITDA profitable, joining its Taiwan market. Therefore, we believe the huge increase in burn rate for Shopee is likely in its largest markets by gross merchandise value (GMV), such as Indonesia and Thailand. The company also alluded to this in its earnings call as it emphasized:<blockquote>尽管有这一观察，该公司强调其马来西亚市场已转为调整后。EBITDA盈利，加入台湾市场。因此，我们认为Shopee的消耗率可能会在其商品总值(GMV)最大的市场（例如印度尼西亚和泰国）大幅增加。该公司在其收益看涨期权中也提到了这一点，并强调：</blockquote> And in terms of sales and marketing&nbsp;and related to competitive dynamics, I think we are -- again, as we discussed it before, given our strong market leadership, we're in a good position now that our sales and marketing is more driven by our view about the efficiency of investment into various markets at various points of time, for example, any shopping event season, any particular opportunities to promote the brand, et cetera... And in terms of the cash burn...as we look at the market opportunities, the timing of the market, for example, in Q2, we have Ramadan season in our several largest markets including Indonesia.And this is a time where investment into the growth and to promote e-commerce adoption is very efficient. We have increased our buy frequency overall to more than 6x a month. And in Indonesia, it has exceeded 7x per month, which we believe is very healthy for a marketplace platform. <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3151acc225456e4078f859b16c1cb114\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Shopee Indonesia 76th Independence Day poster (Shopee ada untuk Indonesia: Shopee is for Indonesia). Source: Shopee Indonesia LinkedIn<blockquote>在销售和营销以及与竞争动态相关的方面，我认为我们是——正如我们之前讨论的那样，鉴于我们强大的市场领导地位，我们现在处于有利地位，因为我们的销售和营销更多地受到我们对不同时间点投资各种市场效率的看法的驱动，例如，任何购物活动季节、任何推广品牌的特定机会等……就现金消耗而言……当我们审视市场机会和市场时机时，例如，在第二季度，包括印度尼西亚在内的几个最大市场都迎来了斋月季节。这是一个投资增长和促进电子商务采用非常有效的时代。我们已经将购买频率提高到每月6次以上。在印度尼西亚，这个数字已经超过了每月7倍，我们认为这对于一个市场平台来说是非常健康的。Shopee印度尼西亚第76届独立日海报（Shopee ada untuk Indonesia：Shopee代表印度尼西亚）。资料来源：Shopee印度尼西亚LinkedIn</blockquote> Now, we emphasized Ramadan (which is not exclusive to Indonesia per se) because it's a massive annual event in Indonesia. We had a sojourn in Jakarta, Indonesia, for a year, and we can tell you it's one of the most important highlights in Indonesia's annual calendar. Therefore, we cannot further underscore the opportunities to boost sales during this important event. It shows that Shopee's management clearly understands its most important market very well, and Shopee also aligned its progress with Indonesia's progress as the country celebrated its 76th Independence Day on 17 Aug 21, as Shopee Indonesia reminded Indonesians that\"Shopee is for Indonesia.\"<blockquote>现在，我们强调斋月（这本身并不是印度尼西亚独有的），因为这是印度尼西亚一年一度的大型活动。我们在印度尼西亚雅加达逗留了一年，我们可以告诉你这是印度尼西亚年度日历中最重要的亮点之一。因此，我们不能进一步强调在这一重要活动期间促进销售的机会。这表明Shopee的管理层显然非常了解其最重要的市场，而且Shopee也将其进展与印度尼西亚的进展保持一致，因为该国于8月17日庆祝了第76个独立日，Shopee Indonesia提醒印度尼西亚人“Shopee代表印度尼西亚。”</blockquote> Shopee Indonesia has quickly moved onto its next big 9.9 shopping event, and this time around, they recruited well-known Indonesian actor and martial artist Joe Taslim, who starred in the recent Mortal Kombat film as Sub-Zero. For readers familiar with Shopee's advertising strategy, the company often stars well-known local artists in its promotional campaigns. The ads are often quirky and dramatic, which helps capture the users' attention very easily and is often memorable. This recipe has served Shopee very well, and somehow its keen regional competitors such as Lazada and Tokopedia have found it difficult to emulate. We encourage investors and readers to continue keeping a close watch on Shopee's most important market moving forward.<blockquote>Shopee Indonesia迅速进入了下一个大型9.9购物活动，这一次，他们招募了印度尼西亚著名演员和武术家Joe Taslim，他在最近的真人快打电影中饰演Sub-Zero。对于熟悉Shopee广告策略的读者来说，该公司经常在其促销活动中让当地知名艺术家出演。广告通常是古怪和戏剧性的，这有助于非常容易地抓住用户的注意力，并且通常令人难忘。这个食谱为Shopee提供了很好的服务，不知何故，其敏锐的区域竞争对手如Lazada和Tokopedia发现很难效仿。我们鼓励投资者和读者继续密切关注Shopee最重要市场的发展。</blockquote> Therefore, while observing quarterly Adj. EBITDA moving back into negative territory wasn't exactly a welcome development; we need to consider the context. In Shopee's case, it was certainly an opportunity that they needed to undertake to take full advantage of the opportunity to boost sales during the important Ramadan festival which is mainly celebrated in Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore. Therefore, we wouldn't be too concerned over a quarter's development and start to be worried, but instead, we should continue to monitor Shopee's Adj. EBITDA's development over the next few quarters, and give the company some space to execute its e-commerce strategies.<blockquote>因此，在观察季度调整后。EBITDA回到负值区域并不是一个受欢迎的发展；我们需要考虑背景。就Shopee而言，这无疑是一个他们需要充分利用这个机会在主要在印度尼西亚、马来西亚和新加坡庆祝的重要斋月期间促进销售的机会。因此，我们不会太担心一个季度的发展并开始担心，而是应该继续关注Shopee的调整后。EBITDA在未来几个季度的发展，并给公司一些空间来执行其电子商务战略。</blockquote> Watch for Advertising's Share of Revenue<blockquote>关注广告在收入中的份额</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aad9a6a626381510c8e2399b70a4d7ea\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Shopee Adj. EBITDA per order. Data source: Company filings<blockquote>Shopee调整后每个订单的EBITDA。数据来源：公司备案</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72fa0e85e8eb2ba3d4eb65c68e2f68f3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Shopee quarterly take rate. Data source: Company filings<blockquote>Shopee季度采用率。数据来源：公司备案</blockquote> As a result of Shoppe's increased Adj. EBITDA losses due to its heavier burn rate for Q2'21, we observed Shopee's Adj. EBITDA loss per order regressed to $0.41, from $0.38 in Q1'21. However, readers should note that this only represented a 7.9% QoQ increase, which is certainly much lower than the 64.8% QoQ increase in total Adj. EBITDA losses. This clearly shows that Shopee is benefiting from greater scale efficiencies, despite the larger burn rate due to the heavier investments in the quarter. In addition, the Adj. EBITDA loss per order was also not \"that bad,\" as it was still in line with Q4'20's metric. Moreover, we have certainly seen worse days, and this was nothing spectacular.<blockquote>由于Shoppe的调整增加。由于21年第二季度的烧钱率较高，我们观察到Shopee的调整后EBITDA损失。每个订单的EBITDA损失从21年第一季度的0.38美元回落至0.41美元。然而，读者应该注意，这仅代表7.9%的环比增长，这肯定远低于调整后总额64.8%的环比增长。EBITDA损失。这清楚地表明，Shopee正受益于更高的规模效率，尽管由于本季度投资较大，烧钱率较高。此外，调整后的每个订单的EBITDA损失也没有“那么糟糕”，因为它仍然符合20年第4季度的指标。此外，我们肯定见过更糟糕的日子，这没什么了不起的。</blockquote> Importantly, we noticed a marked and consistent improvement in Shopee's take rate for Q2'21 as it improved to 6.7% compared to 6.1% in Q1'21. Sea Limited was very clear on its earnings call where this improvement was mainly attributed to as it emphasized: \"This deepening monetization was driven mainly bygrowing merchant investments in marketing and advertisement on the Shopee platformto attract better and serve buyers.\"<blockquote>重要的是，我们注意到Shopee 21年第二季度的接受率显着且持续的改善，从21年第一季度的6.1%提高至6.7%。Sea Limited在其收益看涨期权上非常清楚，这种改善主要归因于，正如它所强调的那样：“这种货币化的深化主要是由商家对Shopee平台营销和广告的投资不断增加更好地吸引和服务买家。”</blockquote> We think this is a critical development in Shopee's progress as it continues to scale rapidly. For example, in our recent Amazon article, we showed just how massive the advertising opportunity is for the company as it's now Amazon's fastest-growing revenue driver, and 90% of its ad revenue is centered on its e-commerce marketplace.<blockquote>我们认为，随着Shopee继续快速扩张，这是其进步的一个关键发展。例如，在我们最近的亚马逊文章中，我们展示了该公司的广告机会有多大，因为它现在是亚马逊增长最快的收入驱动力，并且其90%的广告收入集中在其电子商务市场。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0d892ee4f3fa12a1d7c862ecf56cf3b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Shopee quarterly sales &amp; marketing (S&amp;M) margin. Data source: Company filings<blockquote>Shopee季度销售和营销(S&amp;M)利润率。数据来源：公司备案</blockquote> Therefore, even though we saw a marked increase in Shopee's S&amp;M margin from 49% in Q1'21 to 56.2% in Q2'21 (14.7% QoQ increase), we encourage investors to consider the company's overall Adj. EBITDA per order, which shows that the company has tremendous leverage to engage in aggressive marketing activities through better monetization in Shopee's platform.<blockquote>因此，尽管我们看到Shopee的S&amp;M利润率从21年第一季度的49%显着增长到21年第二季度的56.2%（环比增长14.7%），但我们鼓励投资者考虑该公司的整体调整后。每个订单的EBITDA，这表明该公司拥有巨大的影响力，可以通过Shopee平台更好地货币化来参与积极的营销活动。</blockquote> Garena's Bookings Growth Seems to Be Slowing Down<blockquote>Garena的预订量增长似乎正在放缓</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1b13b4908d9a6b7a2ebd889cf4fc198\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Garena bookings. Data source: Company filings<blockquote>加雷娜预订公司。数据来源：公司备案</blockquote> The company reported a fantastic quarter for Garena again as it topped several charts. Sea highlighted that Garena's Free Fire continues to maintain incredible momentum in Southeast Asia, LatAm, and India as the highest-grossing game. In the US, Free Fire was \"ranked the highest-grossing mobile battle royale game for the past two quarters based on App Annie. Additionally, Free Fire was the second highest-grossing mobile game in the U.S. on Google Play across all games categories in the second quarter as well.\"<blockquote>该公司再次公布了Garena出色的季度业绩，在多个排行榜上名列前茅。Sea强调，Garena的Free Fire在东南亚、拉丁美洲和印度继续保持令人难以置信的势头，成为票房最高的游戏。在美国，《自由之火》“根据App Annie的数据，被评为过去两个季度票房最高的移动大逃杀游戏。此外，《自由之火》是美国Google Play上所有游戏类别中票房第二高的移动游戏”第二季度也是如此。”</blockquote> While this is certainly impressive, we prefer to look at the global perspective on how Free Fire has performed against its peers. According to&nbsp;Sensor Tower&nbsp;data for H1'21, while Free Fire is the #2 top gross gaming app behind Moon Active's Coin Master on Google Play, it ranked only #8 in overall revenue when we included the App Store's top-grossing gaming apps such as Tencent's(OTCPK:TCEHY)Honor of Kings (#1 overall) and PUBG Mobile battle-royale game (#2 overall), and also Roblox (#4 overall)(NYSE:RBLX). Therefore, while Free Fire has been doing well in markets where the Android operating system (OS) is dominant, it hasn't performed quite as well in North America, where iOS is the leading OS (as we showed in our Digital Turbine(NASDAQ:APPS)article appendedhere). The US is the largest and the most important mobile gaming market, as it accounted for28%of the mobile gaming market share in 2020. Garena has never been a strong performer on iOS, and if the company can improve its performance in the App Store, the boost could be tremendous to Garena.<blockquote>虽然这确实令人印象深刻，但我们更愿意从全球角度来看Free Fire相对于同行的表现。根据H1 21年的Sensor Tower数据，虽然Free Fire是Google Play上总收入排名第二的游戏应用程序，仅次于Moon Active的Coin Master，但当我们将App Store收入最高的游戏应用程序包括在内时，它在总收入中仅排名第八，例如腾讯控股（OTCPK：TCEHY）的王者荣耀（总排名第一）和PUBG Mobile battle-royale游戏（总排名第二），以及Roblox（总排名第四）（纽约证券交易所代码：RBLX）。因此，虽然Free Fire在Android操作系统(OS)占主导地位的市场表现良好，但它在iOS是领先操作系统的北美表现不佳（正如我们在Digital Turbine（纳斯达克：APPS）文章中所展示的那样）。美国是最大和最重要的移动游戏市场，因为它在2020年占移动游戏市场份额的28%。Garena在iOS上从来都不是一个强劲的表现，如果该公司能够提高其在App Store中的表现，对Garena来说可能是巨大的。</blockquote> While the company's bookings for Q2'21 remain strong as it posted a QoQ increase of 9.1% to $1.2B from $1.1B in Q1'21, the company only raised the guidance from $4.5B to $4.7B in bookings for FY21. When we consider H1'21's collective bookings of $2.3B, the company is therefore expecting H2'21 bookings to come in at $2.3B, which means they aren't expecting any material growth in bookings for the rest of the year as compared to H1'21. This was also picked up by one of the analysts on the conference call, and Group Chief Corporate Officer Yanjun Wang reminded:<blockquote>虽然该公司21年第二季度的预订量依然强劲，从21年第一季度的1.1 B美元环比增长9.1%至1.2 B美元，但该公司仅将21财年的预订量指引从4.5 B美元上调至4.7 B美元。当我们考虑H1'21的总预订量为$2.3 B时，该公司因此预计H2'21的预订量为$2.3 B，这意味着他们预计今年剩余时间的预订量与H1相比不会有任何实质性增长'21。这也被电话会议的一位分析师注意到，集团首席企业官王彦军提醒：</blockquote> We believe the overall guidance showed a more than 40% year-on-year growth compared to last year, which is also a record year for us with the commencement of lockdown. And I think this is a very strong performance already. And our focus, as you can tell from game and the metrics we have indicated as well as our views in terms of how to grow our gaming platform, is to continue to first and foremost to grow our user base and also pay user baseacross the various markets in the world as we continue to see strong potential growth. (from Q2'21 earnings call) <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e708cd17fe0c5aaf6c51772d63f48fd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Quarter paying users (QPU) / Quarterly active users (QAU). Data source: Company filings<blockquote>我们认为，总体指引显示，与去年相比，去年同比增长超过40%，随着封锁的开始，去年也是我们创纪录的一年。我认为这已经是一个非常强劲的表现了。正如您可以从游戏和我们指出的指标以及我们对如何发展游戏平台的看法中看出我们的重点，首先是继续扩大我们的用户群和付费用户群我们继续看到强劲的潜在增长。（来自21年第二季度收益看涨期权）季度付费用户（QPU）/季度活跃用户（QAU）。数据来源：公司备案</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5f5b4c4cef797d04f34591d7cb7ea08\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Average Booking Per User (ABPU) and Average Booking Per Paying User (ABPPU)). Data source: Company filings<blockquote>每个用户的平均预订量(ABPU)和每个付费用户的平均预订量(ABPPU))。数据来源：公司备案</blockquote> The company's bookings trends can certainly be observed on a per-user or per paying user basis. The ABPPU has certainly been trending down, which reflects a drop in monetization per paying user, which is important as paying users are the ones that generate revenue for Garena. However, we didn't really observe a meaningful drop in the ABPU trend, despite the drop in ABPPU. This shows that even though there is \"less meat\" per paying user, newly minted paying users have been supporting the bookings, which we can certainly observe from the first chart where the QPU / QAU ratio has been consistently increasing, indicating that Garena has been getting better at converting and monetizing its huge non-paying users base. We think this is of huge significance when we consider that only 12.7% of users are paying users as of Q2'21, leaving the company massive opportunities to continue \"working its magic\" on monetizing the non-paying users. On this matter, Sea Limited was unabashed as it emphasized: \"...Our past track record has shown that we're generally good at commercialization in even markets that are known to be difficult for commercialization. So we don't really worry about not being able to commercialize the content down the road. But our focus continues to be growing the user base and making this an even larger platform that allows us to really tap on into it to build a stronger game ecosystem with very strong social elements in it.\"<blockquote>该公司的预订趋势当然可以在每个用户或每个付费用户的基础上观察到。ABPPU肯定一直在下降，这反映出每个付费用户的货币化程度下降，这一点很重要，因为付费用户是Garena创收的人。然而，尽管ABPPU有所下降，但我们并没有真正观察到ABPU趋势有意义的下降。这表明，尽管每个付费用户的“肉更少”，但新形成的付费用户一直在支持预订，我们可以从第一张图表中肯定地观察到这一点，其中QPU/QAU比率一直在持续增加，这表明Garena在转化和货币化其庞大的非付费用户群方面变得越来越好。考虑到截至21年第二季度，只有12.7%的用户是付费用户，我们认为这具有巨大的意义，这给公司留下了大量机会继续“发挥其魔力”，将非付费用户货币化。在这件事上，Sea Limited毫不掩饰地强调：“...我们过去的记录表明，即使在众所周知难以商业化的市场，我们通常也擅长商业化。所以我们并不真正担心无法将内容商业化。但我们的重点仍然是扩大用户群，使其成为一个更大的平台，使我们能够真正利用它来建立一个更强大的游戏生态系统，其中包含非常强大的社交元素。”</blockquote> Building up eSports as a Social Platform<blockquote>将电子竞技打造为社交平台</blockquote> We shared in our previous deep dive on Garena (link to the article is appendedhere), where Garena's ambitions are beyond just a mobile gaming app. The company has huge ambitions, and they have already been using eSports as the basis to build the community for its gamers and developing it into a social platform that perhaps is similar to what Roblox has advanced. Garena has already highlighted previously its ambitions on building this cohesive and broad social community as it emphasized:<blockquote>我们在之前对Garena的深入研究中分享过（文章链接附在此处），Garena的雄心不仅仅是一个移动游戏应用程序。该公司有着巨大的野心，他们已经在以电子竞技为基础，为其游戏玩家建立社区，并将其发展成为一个社交平台，或许类似于Roblox所推进的。Garena此前已经强调了其建立这个有凝聚力且广泛的社交社区的雄心，并强调：</blockquote> ...developingit into a social platformwhere people not only come to play the core gameplay, but also enjoy other modes: hangout, listen to music, social lives… So our focus is to continue to promote a massive-based online platform and online community and provide them with content and opportunities for socializing engagement, try out different modes of games, try out different characters, avatars or having different ways of playing. The revenue in global eSports is not that significant as it's only expected to reach $1.62B by 2024, as we highlighted in our Garena article. Still, the whole strategic intent is to build the all-encompassing social platform that will drive incredible engagement, platform stickiness beyond what a typical gaming app can do. Importantly, the company is also headquartered in Singapore, where the Singapore government is focused on building the global hub for eSports, as Southeast Asia is expected to be the fastest-growing region for eSports, and the city-state recently opened a huge 12,000-sqft eSports experience center, as the Singapore Tourism Board emphasized:<blockquote>...把它发展成一个社交平台人们不仅来玩核心游戏，还享受其他模式：闲逛、听音乐、社交生活……因此，我们的重点是继续推广基于海量的在线平台和在线社区，为他们提供社交参与的内容和机会，尝试不同的游戏模式，尝试不同的角色、头像或不同的游戏方式。正如我们在Garena文章中强调的那样，全球电子竞技的收入并不那么重要，因为预计到2024年仅会达到$16.2亿。尽管如此，整个战略意图是建立一个包罗万象的社交平台，这将推动难以置信的参与度和平台粘性，超越典型的游戏应用程序。重要的是，该公司的总部也设在新加坡，新加坡政府正致力于在新加坡建设全球电子竞技中心，因为东南亚预计将成为电子竞技发展最快的地区，而这个城市国家最近开设了一个巨大的12,000平方英尺的电子竞技体验中心，正如新加坡旅游局所强调的那样：</blockquote> Our world-class events&nbsp;and digital infrastructure have also made Singapore an attractive location for the industry to hold gaming and e-sports events here. The government will continue to support companies as they push boundaries through experimenting with new and immersive content formats and business models, as well as level up the quality of our local talent to become leading creators of world-class content. Garena also recently brought in \"globally renowned DJs&nbsp;Dimitri Vegas &amp; Like Mike, Alok, and KSHMR for Free Fire’s 4th-anniversary theme song, ‘Reunion,’\" following successful strategies adopted by Roblox in its metaverse development, and we think Garena is really still very early in its opportunity to develop its own metaverse.<blockquote>我们世界级的赛事和数字基础设施也使新加坡成为业界在这里举办游戏和电子竞技赛事的有吸引力的地点。政府将继续支持公司通过尝试新的沉浸式内容格式和商业模式来突破界限，并提高我们本地人才的素质，成为世界级内容的领先创作者。Garena最近还为Free Fire的四周年主题曲《Reunion》带来了“全球知名的DJ Dimitri Vegas&amp;如Mike、Alok和KSHMR”，遵循Roblox在元宇宙开发中采取的成功策略，我们认为Garena开发自己的元宇宙的机会确实还很早。</blockquote> Sea Limited Stakes Its Claim On MercadoLibre's LatAm Leadership<blockquote>Sea Limited押注MercadoLibre在拉丁美洲的领导地位</blockquote> Without a doubt, the one that generates the most interest is the company's foray into LatAm, which Sea Limited recently updated that it has seen tremendous progress. We did a deep dive recently on this topic, and we encourage you to refer to our articlehere. While we think MercadoLibre(NASDAQ:MELI)is the undisputed e-commerce and FinTech leader in LatAm, especially in LatAm's most important market: Brazil, Shopee's progress has been truly remarkable as it's now the #2 ranked e-commerce app in downloads in Brazil according to App Annie. However, although Shopee is surely making meaningful headway in Brazil, MELI is a different competitor than Tokopedia and Lazada. MELI understands LatAm's e-commerce space comprehensively and has a very impressive logistics and fulfillment network that is second to none in LatAm's notoriously challenging logistics infrastructure. Sea Limited also noted this, but the company thinks that it will be able to overcome these difficulties as it continues to invest in LatAm, which will help these third-party logistics providers to improve their efficiencies and competencies over time and close the gap with MELI as SE emphasized:<blockquote>毫无疑问，最令人感兴趣的是该公司进军拉丁美洲，Sea Limited最近更新称，该公司取得了巨大进展。我们最近对这个话题进行了深入探讨，我们鼓励您参考我们的文章。虽然我们认为MercadoLibre（纳斯达克：MELI）是拉丁美洲无可争议的电子商务和金融科技领导者，尤其是在拉丁美洲最重要的市场：巴西，但Shopee的进步确实令人瞩目，因为根据App Annie的数据，它现在是巴西下载量排名第二的电子商务应用程序。然而，尽管Shopee确实在巴西取得了有意义的进展，但MELI是与Tokopedia和Lazada不同的竞争对手。MELI全面了解LatAm的电子商务领域，并拥有令人印象深刻的物流和履行网络，在LatAm众所周知具有挑战性的物流基础设施中首屈一指。Sea Limited也注意到了这一点，但该公司认为，随着继续投资LatAm，它将能够克服这些困难，这将帮助这些第三方物流提供商随着时间的推移提高效率和能力，并缩小与MELI的差距SE强调：</blockquote> ...There hasn't been a lot of volume or traffic broadly generated across different platforms, then probably there is also a lack of initial growth opportunity for logistics. But on the one hand, we are also hopeful that with the growing e-commerce scene in the region and more focus of our global investors into the growth opportunities in the region, we may also see similar trends in those markets. And this is hopefully some contribution we can make to the market in terms of bringing more opportunities, bringing more digitization as well as e-commerce ecosystem that helps not just growth of Shopee but also growth of the surrounding services, including 3PLs within the region. And we've been partnering with 3PLs in our region very successfully in growing the e-commerce ecosystem. And at the same time, these third-party partners also enjoy the very strong growth on their end as well and the close partnership with Shopee. We are very happy to continue to adopt that model going forward in Brazil or the new markets as well. (from Q2'21 earnings call) We have indeed seen this great partnership between Shopee and its logistics partners in Southeast Asia, so much so that one of its key logistics partners in Indonesia:J&amp;T Express, is on track for its own IPO either in Hong Kong or the US. Therefore, while MELI certainly has the important lead in logistics right now, we believe it's only a matter of time the logistics infrastructure in LatAm improves with Shopee's involvement if it is willing to adopt the aggressiveness of its approach with Southeast Asia.<blockquote>……不同平台之间没有广泛产生大量的交易量或流量，那么物流可能也缺乏初始增长机会。但一方面，我们也希望随着该地区电子商务的发展以及我们的全球投资者更加关注该地区的增长机会，我们也可能在这些市场看到类似的趋势。希望这是我们可以为市场做出的一些贡献，带来更多机会，带来更多数字化和电子商务生态系统，这不仅有助于Shopee的增长，也有助于周边服务的增长，包括该地区的第三方物流。我们一直在与我们地区的第三方物流合作，非常成功地发展电子商务生态系统。与此同时，这些第三方合作伙伴也享有非常强劲的增长以及与Shopee的密切合作关系。我们很高兴在巴西或新市场继续采用这种模式。（来自看涨期权21年第二季度财报）我们确实看到了Shopee与其东南亚物流合作伙伴之间的良好合作伙伴关系，以至于其在印度尼西亚的主要物流合作伙伴之一：J&amp;T Express正在进行自己的IPO无论是在香港还是在美国。因此，虽然MELI目前在物流领域确实占据着重要的领先地位，但我们相信，如果Shopee愿意在东南亚采取积极的做法，那么拉丁美洲的物流基础设施在Shopee的参与下得到改善只是时间问题。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b58c9691ecea1beaa8e7bbec9861713\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">MELI Commerce Take Rate. Data source: Company filings<blockquote>MELI商业采取率。数据来源：公司备案</blockquote> If we consider MELI's commerce take rate as compared to Shopee's take rate, readers can easily observe the incredible monetization opportunities that are available in LatAm, and we can easily understand why Sea Limited is so keen to carve out MercadoLibre's leadership there because it's just so attractive. We think as Sea Limited gets more aggressive in its marketing in LatAm, MercadoLibre will start to feel the pressure to rein in its lucrative take rate to compete with Shopee's aggressive marketing tactics.<blockquote>如果我们将MELI的商务采用率与Shopee的采用率进行比较，读者可以很容易地观察到拉丁美洲令人难以置信的货币化机会，我们也可以很容易地理解为什么Sea Limited如此热衷于开拓MercadoLibre在那里的领导地位，因为它太有吸引力了。我们认为，随着Sea Limited在拉丁美洲的营销变得更加积极，MercadoLibre将开始感受到控制其利润丰厚的接受率以与Shopee激进的营销策略竞争的压力。</blockquote> Shopee has engaged international film star Jackie Chan for its global 9.9 campaign, and its Brazilian version (see above) has received even more views (3.3M) than some of its Asian counterparts that we last surveyed: Indonesia (1.2M views) and Singapore (1.6M views). We think Shopee has the potential to inflict huge damage to MELI's highly lucrative take rate as its Southeast Asian operations have achieved significant scale, and we think they are ready to take on LatAm's e-commerce leader with confidence. Readers should note that Shopee's e-commerce operations are way larger than MELI as Shopee boasts an LTM GMV of $48.8B as compared to MELI LTM GMV of $25.6B.<blockquote>Shopee聘请了国际电影明星成龙参与其全球9.9活动，其巴西版本（见上图）的浏览量（330万次）甚至超过了我们上次调查的一些亚洲同行：印度尼西亚（120万次浏览）和新加坡（160万次浏览）。我们认为Shopee有可能对MELI利润丰厚的采用率造成巨大损害，因为其东南亚业务已经达到了相当大的规模，而且我们认为他们已准备好充满信心地与拉丁美洲的电子商务领导者竞争。读者应该注意到，Shopee的电子商务业务比MELI大得多，因为Shopee的LTM GMV为$488亿，而MELI LTM GMV为$256亿。</blockquote> Valuations Are Never Going to be Cheap<blockquote>估值永远不会便宜</blockquote> We used a blended comps valuation comprising its EV/Fwd Rev multiples and its EV/Fwd EBITDA multiples using the following companies in the comps set: Amazon, Tencent, Roblox, MercadoLibre, and Square(NYSE:SQ).<blockquote>我们使用了混合比较估值，包括其EV/Fwd Rev倍数和EV/Fwd EBITDA倍数，使用了比较集中的以下公司：Amazon、腾讯控股、Roblox、MercadoLibre和Square(NYSE：SQ)。</blockquote> Using an aggressive valuation approach based on FY23 consensus estimates of EBITDA and Revenue, we arrived at an implied fair value of about $336.19 (mid-point) under the EBITDA multiples approach and $352.62 (mid-point) under the Revenue approach. Averaging out those fair values will give us a blended fair value of $344.41, which indicates a potential downside of about 2.5% from its last closing price of $353.36.<blockquote>我们使用基于2023财年对EBITDA和收入的共识估计的激进估值方法，根据EBITDA倍数方法得出的隐含公允价值约为336.19美元（中点），根据收入方法得出的隐含公允价值约为352.62美元（中点）。对这些公允价值进行平均后，我们的混合公允价值为344.41美元，这表明较上一收盘价353.36美元可能下跌约2.5%。</blockquote> Readers should also note that we have used an aggressive approach and have not considered a reasonable margin of safety. So, in essence, SE stock looks expensive right now, even though we don't expect it to be cheap for a high-quality growth stock like Sea Limited.<blockquote>读者还应该注意到，我们使用了激进的方法，没有考虑合理的安全边际。因此，从本质上讲，SE股票现在看起来很昂贵，尽管我们预计它对于像Sea Limited这样的优质成长型股票来说并不便宜。</blockquote> SE Stock Price Action and Trend Analysis<blockquote>SE股价走势及趋势分析</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd66ba3ffcdaf31167f72ad7ac24d34c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"420\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">SE stock price action (weekly).<blockquote>SE股价走势（每周）。</blockquote> The rapid ascent of SE stock has left price action investors with little opportunities to add more exposure. However, we have still taken the opportunities in May to add more exposure to our portfolio and haven't added anymore since.<blockquote>SE股票的快速上涨使得价格行为投资者几乎没有机会增加更多敞口。然而，我们仍然抓住5月份的机会增加了投资组合的更多敞口，此后就没有再增加。</blockquote> While we have not witnessed any indication of a momentum shift in SE stock, we seriously don't think we will even consider adding exposure at this price level, as our aggressive valuation approach has shown us that quite a bit of the optimism has already been priced in. The stock is also starting to show flashes of flush-up price action that are indicative of potential bull-trap scenarios. While the price action has not been resolved yet, we are still monitoring for opportunities to perhaps enter cash-secured puts at more reasonable strike prices relative to the expected premium collected to try and take advantage of SE stock's incredible momentum.<blockquote>虽然我们没有看到SE股票势头转变的任何迹象，但我们严重认为我们甚至不会考虑在这个价格水平上增加敞口，因为我们激进的估值方法向我们表明，相当多的乐观情绪已经被定价。该股也开始出现价格上涨的闪光，这表明潜在的牛市陷阱情景。虽然价格走势尚未解决，但我们仍在监测是否有机会以相对于预期收取的溢价更合理的执行价格进入现金担保看跌期权，以尝试利用SE股票令人难以置信的势头。</blockquote> Hence, we hope that we have demonstrated in our earlier sections that Sea Limited is definitely in the early innings of its market opportunity. Still, the level of optimism in the stock will need some leveling off first so that long-term investors can add exposure at a more reasonable price level.<blockquote>因此，我们希望我们已经在前面的章节中证明了Sea Limited肯定正处于市场机会的早期阶段。尽管如此，该股的乐观程度首先需要趋于平稳，以便长期投资者能够以更合理的价格水平增加投资。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Sea Limited Stock A Good Buy For The Long-Term?<blockquote>从长远来看，Sea Limited股票值得买入吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Sea Limited Stock A Good Buy For The Long-Term?<blockquote>从长远来看，Sea Limited股票值得买入吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-09-08 10:37\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Sea Limited is a very high-quality growth stock that surprisingly receives less attention than Alibaba, MercadoLibre, and Amazon, even though it has outperformed all of them, hands down.</li> <li>We help investors understand the key metrics in a useful analytical framework to evaluate Sea Limited's growth opportunities and whether it is worthy of a long-term position.</li> <li>Lastly, we present our valuation argument to help our readers to decide whether they should add Sea Limited stock right now.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6050b357f1df083177d9ed6c9d848071\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1163\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">nuttapong/iStock Editorial via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>Sea Limited是一只非常优质的成长型股票，令人惊讶的是，它受到的关注度低于阿里巴巴-SW、MercadoLibre和Amazon，尽管它的表现无疑优于所有这些股票。</li><li>我们帮助投资者在有用的分析框架中了解关键指标，以评估Sea Limited的增长机会以及是否值得长期持有。</li><li>最后，我们提出我们的估值论点，以帮助我们的读者决定是否应该立即添加Sea Limited股票。</li></ul>nuttapong/iStock社论来自Getty Images</blockquote> Investment Thesis<blockquote>投资论文</blockquote> Sea Limited(NYSE:SE)is one of our core holdings in our growth portfolio and one that we have taken the opportunity to add on major dips in the uptrend over the last year as the stock's incredible momentum saw it easily outperforming its e-commerce peers and mobile gaming peers.<blockquote>Sea Limited（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SE）是我们增长投资组合中的核心持股之一，也是我们在去年上升趋势大幅下跌时借此机会增持的股票之一，因为该股令人难以置信的势头使其轻松超越了电子商务同行和移动游戏同行。</blockquote> For growth investors, Sea's incredible growth trajectory has been truly phenomenal, coupled with it being free of Beijing's oversights that saw its Chinese peers fall like dominoes, stunning even institutional investors with the pace of the government's \"rectification\" adjustments.<blockquote>对于成长型投资者来说，Sea令人难以置信的增长轨迹确实是惊人的，再加上它没有受到北京方面的监管，导致其中国同行像多米诺骨牌一样倒下，政府“整改”调整的步伐甚至让机构投资者感到震惊。</blockquote> Sea's ascent has also been somewhat of a conundrum for value investors, as they don't get how an unprofitable company can be trading at such sky-high valuations without consequences.<blockquote>Sea的崛起对价值投资者来说也是一个难题，因为他们不明白一家不盈利的公司如何能够以如此高的估值进行交易而不承担任何后果。</blockquote> Therefore, to answer whether Sea Limited stock is a good long-term buy for investors, we will show our readers how to apply the appropriate analytical framework and valuation treatment to the company, based on its performance and its projections moving forward, so that investors can make meaningful decisions on whether they think Sea Limited is a worthy long-term addition to their portfolio now.<blockquote>因此，为了回答Sea Limited股票是否适合投资者长期买入，我们将向读者展示如何根据其业绩和未来预测对该公司应用适当的分析框架和估值处理，以便投资者可以就他们是否认为Sea Limited现在是其投资组合中值得的长期补充做出有意义的决定。</blockquote> For investors who are new to Sea Limited, we have recently written several articles on the company, which you can refer to them as a preamble.<blockquote>对于刚接触Sea Limited的投资者，我们最近写了几篇关于该公司的文章，您可以将其作为序言参考。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0396874197381d0fc087a864425a26d9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Sea &amp; Peers' stock YTD performance (as of 3 Sep 21)<blockquote>Sea&amp;Peers股票年初至今表现（截至21年9月3日）</blockquote> This year, Sea has been one of our portfolio's leading performers as the stock raced to an 83% YTD lead that easily outperformed all its peers and SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF(NYSEARCA:SPY). This performance is even more incredible because it came off an outstanding 2020, where it also outperformed with a 392% return.<blockquote>今年，Sea一直是我们投资组合中表现领先的股票之一，该股年初至今领先83%，轻松跑赢所有同行和SPDR标普500 ETF（NYSEARCA：SPDR标普500指数ETF）。这一表现更加令人难以置信，因为它在2020年表现出色，并以392%的回报率表现出色。</blockquote> While the rest of its American and Chinese peers often received more coverage than this Singapore-headquartered company, it has been Sea which has been quietly delivering. It has been executing, expanding its Garena gaming ecosystem, and reaching new milestones. It's been scaling its e-commerce footprint to LatAm and demonstrating to Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)&nbsp;that they are not experiencing any reopening headwinds. This is in contrast to what&nbsp;Amazon indicated&nbsp;in its recent earnings. The company is also growing its Sea Money footprint, especially through the Shopee/Shopee Pay flywheel, as the company stakes its FinTech leadership ambitions against Southeast Asia's FinTech leader Grab(NASDAQ:AGC).<blockquote>虽然其他美国和中国同行往往比这家总部位于新加坡的公司获得更多的报道，但Sea一直在悄悄地提供服务。它一直在执行，扩大其Garena游戏生态系统，并达到新的里程碑。该公司一直在将其电子商务业务扩展到拉丁美洲，并向亚马逊（纳斯达克股票代码：AMZN）证明他们没有遇到任何重新开放的阻力。这与亚马逊在最近的财报中表示的情况形成鲜明对比。该公司还在扩大其Sea Money足迹，特别是通过Shopee/Shopee Pay飞轮，因为该公司将其金融科技领导地位的雄心与东南亚金融科技领导者Grab（纳斯达克：AGC）进行了较量。</blockquote> As a result of Sea Limited's incredible success, the group's China-born CEO&nbsp;Forrest Li&nbsp;is also now Singapore's richest man with a net worth of $20.3B.<blockquote>由于Sea Limited取得了令人难以置信的成功，该集团出生于中国的首席执行官Forrest Li现在也以203亿美元的净资产成为新加坡首富。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1620f0a51f5f3cdb4a59c482df5ec1f1\" tg-width=\"380\" tg-height=\"236\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">SE quant rating (momentum). Source: Seeking Alpha Premium<blockquote>SE量化评级（动量）。资料来源：寻求Alpha Premium</blockquote> We have always reminded investors that Sea stock is one that you should never bet against even if you are bearish on its long-term prognosis. The stock has made one of the strongest upside moves we have seen for stocks in our growth portfolio. This is also corroborated by Seeking Alpha's proprietary quant momentum rating, giving it the best possible A+ grade on its most recent performance.<blockquote>我们一直提醒投资者，即使您看跌Sea股票的长期预测，您也不应该做空Sea股票。该股是我们成长型投资组合中股票中最强劲的上涨走势之一。Seeking Alpha专有的量化动量评级也证实了这一点，对其最近的表现给予了最好的A+评级。</blockquote> Given the company and the stock's stupendous performances so far, we think it's only apt that investors ask whether SE's future optimism has been largely priced in, which is especially important for new investors who have yet to add its stock, where we will highlight the analytical framework on how investors can use to consider the company's prospects moving forward.<blockquote>鉴于该公司及其股票迄今为止的惊人表现，我们认为投资者询问SE未来的乐观情绪是否已在很大程度上被消化是恰当的，这对于尚未增持其股票的新投资者来说尤其重要，我们将重点介绍投资者如何考虑公司未来前景的分析框架。</blockquote> Monitor Its Revenue Growth Closely<blockquote>密切监控其收入增长</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e796ddaf599085b7ad02d64a84dd3b87\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Sea Limited quarterly revenue. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ<blockquote>Sea Limited季度收入。数据来源：标普资本智商</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6ddcbf7578338f88c00c9432ab58f23\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Sea Limited quarterly revenue YoY growth. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ<blockquote>Sea Limited季度收入同比增长。数据来源：标普资本智商</blockquote> Sea Limited impressed with another awesome quarter of topline growth as total revenue grew 159% YoY on revenue of $2.28B. Its QoQ performance was also remarkable with a 29% QoQ growth, as the company shows that its gangbusters growth knows \"no limit.\"<blockquote>Sea Limited对又一个令人惊叹的季度营收增长印象深刻，总收入同比增长159%，收入为$2.28 B。其环比业绩也非常出色，环比增长29%，因为该公司表明其强劲的增长“没有限制”。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60c7db30aeda80ea916ef8aa2816c93e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Sea Limited GAAP quarterly operating margins. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ<blockquote>Sea Limited GAAP季度营业利润率。数据来源：标普资本智商</blockquote> For companies like Sea, whose strategy is still focused very much on topline growth and building scale efficiencies in the process, we should not be too concerned with its negative operating margins, as long as the company clearly demonstrated that it could grow rapidly like in Sea's case, and also achieve economies of scale through ramping revenue as it seeks out its \"blue oceans.\" We also articulated this point in a recent article on Snowflake(NYSE:SNOW), which operates in a huge market with a massive opportunity to expand, and the firm has shown that it can execute its strategies very well to capture those revenue opportunities&nbsp;despite having negative operating margins right now.<blockquote>对于像Sea这样的公司来说，其战略仍然非常注重营收增长并在此过程中建立规模效率，我们不应该太担心其负营业利润率，只要该公司清楚地证明它可以像Sea那样快速增长案例，并在寻求“蓝海”时通过增加收入来实现规模经济。我们在最近一篇关于Snowflake（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SNOW）的文章中也阐明了这一点，该公司在一个巨大的市场中运营，拥有巨大的扩张机会，并且该公司已经表明，尽管目前营业利润率为负，但它可以很好地执行其战略来抓住这些收入机会。</blockquote> Therefore, Sea Limited has certainly struck the right notes here, and we see no cause for concern so far. What matters for investors now is whether the company is still expected to grow this rapidly moving forward.<blockquote>因此，Sea Limited在这方面无疑是正确的，到目前为止我们认为没有理由担心。现在对投资者来说重要的是该公司是否仍有望如此快速地发展。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f1bb9296424b15e07d5536227010fd4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Sea Limited revenue mean consensus estimates. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ<blockquote>Sea Limited收入意味着共识估计。数据来源：标普资本智商</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5efed61b23216e709291326ae9eac3b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"291\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Sea Limited consensus revenue estimates revision trend. Source: Seeking Alpha Premium<blockquote>Sea Limited共识收入预估修正趋势。资料来源：寻求Alpha Premium</blockquote> Readers should easily glean that the Street upgraded revenue forecasts for the company after Q2's earnings release from what they projected post Q1 earnings. For example, revenue projection for FY21 has been increased by 11.5% to reflect the improved guidance from the company. Even though projections for FY24 to FY25 look rather tepid, readers should note that only three analysts covered the FY24 projections, while only two covered for FY25, compared to the 18-21 analysts who covered FY21 to FY23 numbers. As a result, we will also focus our discussion up to FY23 numbers to keep them meaningful.<blockquote>读者应该很容易发现，华尔街在第二季度财报发布后上调了该公司的收入预测，高于第一季度财报发布后的预测。例如，2021财年的收入预测增加了11.5%，以反映公司指导的改进。尽管对2024财年至2025财年的预测看起来相当不温不火，但读者应该注意到，只有三名分析师报道了2024财年的预测，而只有两名分析师报道了2025财年的预测，而有18-21名分析师报道了2021财年至2023财年的数据。因此，我们也将把讨论的重点放在2023财年数字上，以保持它们的意义。</blockquote> The expected revenue CAGR from FY20 to FY23 is 59.1%, while it reads 40.1% from FY21 to FY23. Therefore, the market is still expecting Sea Limited to deliver remarkable topline growth rates moving forward.At the same time, we are cautiously optimistic about Sea Limited's future, under the skillful stewardship of Group CEO Forrest Li and his management team. The team includes his two very competent business unit chiefs&nbsp;Chris Feng&nbsp;and Terry Zhao. Feng was born in China and leads Shopee and Sea Money. He is a Stanford alumnus like Li and he was recruited from Lazada(NYSE:BABA)by Li in 2014. Feng is said to be a “very, very smart and very, very confident” person who “reacts quickly and has excellent abilities of recall.” Zhao is the president of Garena. Li has kept Zhao by his side since the company's inception. Li is unlike Alibaba's Jack Ma and prefers to keep a&nbsp;modest&nbsp;profile. Still, his team's execution has been nothing short of outstanding, and we see no reason to think otherwise moving forward for this founder-led company.<blockquote>2023财年2020财年的预期收入复合年增长率为59.1%，而2023财年2021财年的预期收入复合年增长率为40.1%。因此，市场仍预计Sea Limited未来将实现显着的营收增长率。与此同时，在集团首席执行官Forrest Li及其管理团队的娴熟管理下，我们对Sea Limited的未来持谨慎乐观态度。该团队包括他的两位非常能干的业务部门主管Chris Feng和Terry Zhao。冯出生于中国，领导Shopee和Sea Money。他和李一样都是斯坦福大学校友，2014年被李从Lazada（纽约证券交易所股票代码：BABA）招聘。据说冯是一个“非常、非常聪明、非常、非常自信”的人，“反应迅速，回忆能力极佳”。赵是Garena的总裁。自公司成立以来，李某一直将赵留在身边。李与阿里巴巴-SW的马云不同，他更喜欢保持谦虚的形象。尽管如此，他的团队的执行力仍然非常出色，我们认为没有理由对这家创始人领导的公司抱有其他想法。</blockquote> Keep a Close Watch on Shopee's Adj. EBITDA<blockquote>密切关注Shopee的调整后。息税折旧及摊销前利润</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/070f4ed8c5f05a52744d9e20681865ce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Quarterly Adj. EBITDA. Data source: Company filings<blockquote>季度调整。息税折旧及摊销前利润。数据来源：公司备案</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a03828e68bf8d41a26be65d7ac633670\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Quarterly Adj. EBITDA by segments. Data source: Company filings<blockquote>季度调整。按部门划分的EBITDA。数据来源：公司备案</blockquote> Of particular concern, though, is that the company's Adj. EBITDA turned negative for the first time since Q2'20 as the increase in Adj. EBITDA losses from Shopee were greater than what Garena could cover in Q2'21. Investors should be able to glean from the second chart where it shows that Shopee's Adj. EBITDA losses increased to $679.77M in Q2'21, representing a 64.8% QoQ increase, while Garena's Adj. EBITDA only managed a 3.3% QoQ increase in Q2'21.<blockquote>不过，特别令人担忧的是，该公司的调整后。由于调整后的增长，EBITDA自20年第二季度以来首次转为负值。Shopee的EBITDA损失大于Garena在21年第二季度所能弥补的损失。投资者应该能够从第二张图表中收集信息，该图表显示Shopee的调整后。21年第二季度EBITDA亏损增至6.7977亿美元，环比增长64.8%，而Garena的调整后亏损。21年第二季度EBITDA仅环比增长3.3%。</blockquote> Despite this observation, the company highlighted that its Malaysia market had turned Adj. EBITDA profitable, joining its Taiwan market. Therefore, we believe the huge increase in burn rate for Shopee is likely in its largest markets by gross merchandise value (GMV), such as Indonesia and Thailand. The company also alluded to this in its earnings call as it emphasized:<blockquote>尽管有这一观察，该公司强调其马来西亚市场已转为调整后。EBITDA盈利，加入台湾市场。因此，我们认为Shopee的消耗率可能会在其商品总值(GMV)最大的市场（例如印度尼西亚和泰国）大幅增加。该公司在其收益看涨期权中也提到了这一点，并强调：</blockquote> And in terms of sales and marketing&nbsp;and related to competitive dynamics, I think we are -- again, as we discussed it before, given our strong market leadership, we're in a good position now that our sales and marketing is more driven by our view about the efficiency of investment into various markets at various points of time, for example, any shopping event season, any particular opportunities to promote the brand, et cetera... And in terms of the cash burn...as we look at the market opportunities, the timing of the market, for example, in Q2, we have Ramadan season in our several largest markets including Indonesia.And this is a time where investment into the growth and to promote e-commerce adoption is very efficient. We have increased our buy frequency overall to more than 6x a month. And in Indonesia, it has exceeded 7x per month, which we believe is very healthy for a marketplace platform. <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3151acc225456e4078f859b16c1cb114\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Shopee Indonesia 76th Independence Day poster (Shopee ada untuk Indonesia: Shopee is for Indonesia). Source: Shopee Indonesia LinkedIn<blockquote>在销售和营销以及与竞争动态相关的方面，我认为我们是——正如我们之前讨论的那样，鉴于我们强大的市场领导地位，我们现在处于有利地位，因为我们的销售和营销更多地受到我们对不同时间点投资各种市场效率的看法的驱动，例如，任何购物活动季节、任何推广品牌的特定机会等……就现金消耗而言……当我们审视市场机会和市场时机时，例如，在第二季度，包括印度尼西亚在内的几个最大市场都迎来了斋月季节。这是一个投资增长和促进电子商务采用非常有效的时代。我们已经将购买频率提高到每月6次以上。在印度尼西亚，这个数字已经超过了每月7倍，我们认为这对于一个市场平台来说是非常健康的。Shopee印度尼西亚第76届独立日海报（Shopee ada untuk Indonesia：Shopee代表印度尼西亚）。资料来源：Shopee印度尼西亚LinkedIn</blockquote> Now, we emphasized Ramadan (which is not exclusive to Indonesia per se) because it's a massive annual event in Indonesia. We had a sojourn in Jakarta, Indonesia, for a year, and we can tell you it's one of the most important highlights in Indonesia's annual calendar. Therefore, we cannot further underscore the opportunities to boost sales during this important event. It shows that Shopee's management clearly understands its most important market very well, and Shopee also aligned its progress with Indonesia's progress as the country celebrated its 76th Independence Day on 17 Aug 21, as Shopee Indonesia reminded Indonesians that\"Shopee is for Indonesia.\"<blockquote>现在，我们强调斋月（这本身并不是印度尼西亚独有的），因为这是印度尼西亚一年一度的大型活动。我们在印度尼西亚雅加达逗留了一年，我们可以告诉你这是印度尼西亚年度日历中最重要的亮点之一。因此，我们不能进一步强调在这一重要活动期间促进销售的机会。这表明Shopee的管理层显然非常了解其最重要的市场，而且Shopee也将其进展与印度尼西亚的进展保持一致，因为该国于8月17日庆祝了第76个独立日，Shopee Indonesia提醒印度尼西亚人“Shopee代表印度尼西亚。”</blockquote> Shopee Indonesia has quickly moved onto its next big 9.9 shopping event, and this time around, they recruited well-known Indonesian actor and martial artist Joe Taslim, who starred in the recent Mortal Kombat film as Sub-Zero. For readers familiar with Shopee's advertising strategy, the company often stars well-known local artists in its promotional campaigns. The ads are often quirky and dramatic, which helps capture the users' attention very easily and is often memorable. This recipe has served Shopee very well, and somehow its keen regional competitors such as Lazada and Tokopedia have found it difficult to emulate. We encourage investors and readers to continue keeping a close watch on Shopee's most important market moving forward.<blockquote>Shopee Indonesia迅速进入了下一个大型9.9购物活动，这一次，他们招募了印度尼西亚著名演员和武术家Joe Taslim，他在最近的真人快打电影中饰演Sub-Zero。对于熟悉Shopee广告策略的读者来说，该公司经常在其促销活动中让当地知名艺术家出演。广告通常是古怪和戏剧性的，这有助于非常容易地抓住用户的注意力，并且通常令人难忘。这个食谱为Shopee提供了很好的服务，不知何故，其敏锐的区域竞争对手如Lazada和Tokopedia发现很难效仿。我们鼓励投资者和读者继续密切关注Shopee最重要市场的发展。</blockquote> Therefore, while observing quarterly Adj. EBITDA moving back into negative territory wasn't exactly a welcome development; we need to consider the context. In Shopee's case, it was certainly an opportunity that they needed to undertake to take full advantage of the opportunity to boost sales during the important Ramadan festival which is mainly celebrated in Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore. Therefore, we wouldn't be too concerned over a quarter's development and start to be worried, but instead, we should continue to monitor Shopee's Adj. EBITDA's development over the next few quarters, and give the company some space to execute its e-commerce strategies.<blockquote>因此，在观察季度调整后。EBITDA回到负值区域并不是一个受欢迎的发展；我们需要考虑背景。就Shopee而言，这无疑是一个他们需要充分利用这个机会在主要在印度尼西亚、马来西亚和新加坡庆祝的重要斋月期间促进销售的机会。因此，我们不会太担心一个季度的发展并开始担心，而是应该继续关注Shopee的调整后。EBITDA在未来几个季度的发展，并给公司一些空间来执行其电子商务战略。</blockquote> Watch for Advertising's Share of Revenue<blockquote>关注广告在收入中的份额</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aad9a6a626381510c8e2399b70a4d7ea\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Shopee Adj. EBITDA per order. Data source: Company filings<blockquote>Shopee调整后每个订单的EBITDA。数据来源：公司备案</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72fa0e85e8eb2ba3d4eb65c68e2f68f3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Shopee quarterly take rate. Data source: Company filings<blockquote>Shopee季度采用率。数据来源：公司备案</blockquote> As a result of Shoppe's increased Adj. EBITDA losses due to its heavier burn rate for Q2'21, we observed Shopee's Adj. EBITDA loss per order regressed to $0.41, from $0.38 in Q1'21. However, readers should note that this only represented a 7.9% QoQ increase, which is certainly much lower than the 64.8% QoQ increase in total Adj. EBITDA losses. This clearly shows that Shopee is benefiting from greater scale efficiencies, despite the larger burn rate due to the heavier investments in the quarter. In addition, the Adj. EBITDA loss per order was also not \"that bad,\" as it was still in line with Q4'20's metric. Moreover, we have certainly seen worse days, and this was nothing spectacular.<blockquote>由于Shoppe的调整增加。由于21年第二季度的烧钱率较高，我们观察到Shopee的调整后EBITDA损失。每个订单的EBITDA损失从21年第一季度的0.38美元回落至0.41美元。然而，读者应该注意，这仅代表7.9%的环比增长，这肯定远低于调整后总额64.8%的环比增长。EBITDA损失。这清楚地表明，Shopee正受益于更高的规模效率，尽管由于本季度投资较大，烧钱率较高。此外，调整后的每个订单的EBITDA损失也没有“那么糟糕”，因为它仍然符合20年第4季度的指标。此外，我们肯定见过更糟糕的日子，这没什么了不起的。</blockquote> Importantly, we noticed a marked and consistent improvement in Shopee's take rate for Q2'21 as it improved to 6.7% compared to 6.1% in Q1'21. Sea Limited was very clear on its earnings call where this improvement was mainly attributed to as it emphasized: \"This deepening monetization was driven mainly bygrowing merchant investments in marketing and advertisement on the Shopee platformto attract better and serve buyers.\"<blockquote>重要的是，我们注意到Shopee 21年第二季度的接受率显着且持续的改善，从21年第一季度的6.1%提高至6.7%。Sea Limited在其收益看涨期权上非常清楚，这种改善主要归因于，正如它所强调的那样：“这种货币化的深化主要是由商家对Shopee平台营销和广告的投资不断增加更好地吸引和服务买家。”</blockquote> We think this is a critical development in Shopee's progress as it continues to scale rapidly. For example, in our recent Amazon article, we showed just how massive the advertising opportunity is for the company as it's now Amazon's fastest-growing revenue driver, and 90% of its ad revenue is centered on its e-commerce marketplace.<blockquote>我们认为，随着Shopee继续快速扩张，这是其进步的一个关键发展。例如，在我们最近的亚马逊文章中，我们展示了该公司的广告机会有多大，因为它现在是亚马逊增长最快的收入驱动力，并且其90%的广告收入集中在其电子商务市场。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0d892ee4f3fa12a1d7c862ecf56cf3b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Shopee quarterly sales &amp; marketing (S&amp;M) margin. Data source: Company filings<blockquote>Shopee季度销售和营销(S&amp;M)利润率。数据来源：公司备案</blockquote> Therefore, even though we saw a marked increase in Shopee's S&amp;M margin from 49% in Q1'21 to 56.2% in Q2'21 (14.7% QoQ increase), we encourage investors to consider the company's overall Adj. EBITDA per order, which shows that the company has tremendous leverage to engage in aggressive marketing activities through better monetization in Shopee's platform.<blockquote>因此，尽管我们看到Shopee的S&amp;M利润率从21年第一季度的49%显着增长到21年第二季度的56.2%（环比增长14.7%），但我们鼓励投资者考虑该公司的整体调整后。每个订单的EBITDA，这表明该公司拥有巨大的影响力，可以通过Shopee平台更好地货币化来参与积极的营销活动。</blockquote> Garena's Bookings Growth Seems to Be Slowing Down<blockquote>Garena的预订量增长似乎正在放缓</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1b13b4908d9a6b7a2ebd889cf4fc198\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Garena bookings. Data source: Company filings<blockquote>加雷娜预订公司。数据来源：公司备案</blockquote> The company reported a fantastic quarter for Garena again as it topped several charts. Sea highlighted that Garena's Free Fire continues to maintain incredible momentum in Southeast Asia, LatAm, and India as the highest-grossing game. In the US, Free Fire was \"ranked the highest-grossing mobile battle royale game for the past two quarters based on App Annie. Additionally, Free Fire was the second highest-grossing mobile game in the U.S. on Google Play across all games categories in the second quarter as well.\"<blockquote>该公司再次公布了Garena出色的季度业绩，在多个排行榜上名列前茅。Sea强调，Garena的Free Fire在东南亚、拉丁美洲和印度继续保持令人难以置信的势头，成为票房最高的游戏。在美国，《自由之火》“根据App Annie的数据，被评为过去两个季度票房最高的移动大逃杀游戏。此外，《自由之火》是美国Google Play上所有游戏类别中票房第二高的移动游戏”第二季度也是如此。”</blockquote> While this is certainly impressive, we prefer to look at the global perspective on how Free Fire has performed against its peers. According to&nbsp;Sensor Tower&nbsp;data for H1'21, while Free Fire is the #2 top gross gaming app behind Moon Active's Coin Master on Google Play, it ranked only #8 in overall revenue when we included the App Store's top-grossing gaming apps such as Tencent's(OTCPK:TCEHY)Honor of Kings (#1 overall) and PUBG Mobile battle-royale game (#2 overall), and also Roblox (#4 overall)(NYSE:RBLX). Therefore, while Free Fire has been doing well in markets where the Android operating system (OS) is dominant, it hasn't performed quite as well in North America, where iOS is the leading OS (as we showed in our Digital Turbine(NASDAQ:APPS)article appendedhere). The US is the largest and the most important mobile gaming market, as it accounted for28%of the mobile gaming market share in 2020. Garena has never been a strong performer on iOS, and if the company can improve its performance in the App Store, the boost could be tremendous to Garena.<blockquote>虽然这确实令人印象深刻，但我们更愿意从全球角度来看Free Fire相对于同行的表现。根据H1 21年的Sensor Tower数据，虽然Free Fire是Google Play上总收入排名第二的游戏应用程序，仅次于Moon Active的Coin Master，但当我们将App Store收入最高的游戏应用程序包括在内时，它在总收入中仅排名第八，例如腾讯控股（OTCPK：TCEHY）的王者荣耀（总排名第一）和PUBG Mobile battle-royale游戏（总排名第二），以及Roblox（总排名第四）（纽约证券交易所代码：RBLX）。因此，虽然Free Fire在Android操作系统(OS)占主导地位的市场表现良好，但它在iOS是领先操作系统的北美表现不佳（正如我们在Digital Turbine（纳斯达克：APPS）文章中所展示的那样）。美国是最大和最重要的移动游戏市场，因为它在2020年占移动游戏市场份额的28%。Garena在iOS上从来都不是一个强劲的表现，如果该公司能够提高其在App Store中的表现，对Garena来说可能是巨大的。</blockquote> While the company's bookings for Q2'21 remain strong as it posted a QoQ increase of 9.1% to $1.2B from $1.1B in Q1'21, the company only raised the guidance from $4.5B to $4.7B in bookings for FY21. When we consider H1'21's collective bookings of $2.3B, the company is therefore expecting H2'21 bookings to come in at $2.3B, which means they aren't expecting any material growth in bookings for the rest of the year as compared to H1'21. This was also picked up by one of the analysts on the conference call, and Group Chief Corporate Officer Yanjun Wang reminded:<blockquote>虽然该公司21年第二季度的预订量依然强劲，从21年第一季度的1.1 B美元环比增长9.1%至1.2 B美元，但该公司仅将21财年的预订量指引从4.5 B美元上调至4.7 B美元。当我们考虑H1'21的总预订量为$2.3 B时，该公司因此预计H2'21的预订量为$2.3 B，这意味着他们预计今年剩余时间的预订量与H1相比不会有任何实质性增长'21。这也被电话会议的一位分析师注意到，集团首席企业官王彦军提醒：</blockquote> We believe the overall guidance showed a more than 40% year-on-year growth compared to last year, which is also a record year for us with the commencement of lockdown. And I think this is a very strong performance already. And our focus, as you can tell from game and the metrics we have indicated as well as our views in terms of how to grow our gaming platform, is to continue to first and foremost to grow our user base and also pay user baseacross the various markets in the world as we continue to see strong potential growth. (from Q2'21 earnings call) <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e708cd17fe0c5aaf6c51772d63f48fd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Quarter paying users (QPU) / Quarterly active users (QAU). Data source: Company filings<blockquote>我们认为，总体指引显示，与去年相比，去年同比增长超过40%，随着封锁的开始，去年也是我们创纪录的一年。我认为这已经是一个非常强劲的表现了。正如您可以从游戏和我们指出的指标以及我们对如何发展游戏平台的看法中看出我们的重点，首先是继续扩大我们的用户群和付费用户群我们继续看到强劲的潜在增长。（来自21年第二季度收益看涨期权）季度付费用户（QPU）/季度活跃用户（QAU）。数据来源：公司备案</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5f5b4c4cef797d04f34591d7cb7ea08\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Average Booking Per User (ABPU) and Average Booking Per Paying User (ABPPU)). Data source: Company filings<blockquote>每个用户的平均预订量(ABPU)和每个付费用户的平均预订量(ABPPU))。数据来源：公司备案</blockquote> The company's bookings trends can certainly be observed on a per-user or per paying user basis. The ABPPU has certainly been trending down, which reflects a drop in monetization per paying user, which is important as paying users are the ones that generate revenue for Garena. However, we didn't really observe a meaningful drop in the ABPU trend, despite the drop in ABPPU. This shows that even though there is \"less meat\" per paying user, newly minted paying users have been supporting the bookings, which we can certainly observe from the first chart where the QPU / QAU ratio has been consistently increasing, indicating that Garena has been getting better at converting and monetizing its huge non-paying users base. We think this is of huge significance when we consider that only 12.7% of users are paying users as of Q2'21, leaving the company massive opportunities to continue \"working its magic\" on monetizing the non-paying users. On this matter, Sea Limited was unabashed as it emphasized: \"...Our past track record has shown that we're generally good at commercialization in even markets that are known to be difficult for commercialization. So we don't really worry about not being able to commercialize the content down the road. But our focus continues to be growing the user base and making this an even larger platform that allows us to really tap on into it to build a stronger game ecosystem with very strong social elements in it.\"<blockquote>该公司的预订趋势当然可以在每个用户或每个付费用户的基础上观察到。ABPPU肯定一直在下降，这反映出每个付费用户的货币化程度下降，这一点很重要，因为付费用户是Garena创收的人。然而，尽管ABPPU有所下降，但我们并没有真正观察到ABPU趋势有意义的下降。这表明，尽管每个付费用户的“肉更少”，但新形成的付费用户一直在支持预订，我们可以从第一张图表中肯定地观察到这一点，其中QPU/QAU比率一直在持续增加，这表明Garena在转化和货币化其庞大的非付费用户群方面变得越来越好。考虑到截至21年第二季度，只有12.7%的用户是付费用户，我们认为这具有巨大的意义，这给公司留下了大量机会继续“发挥其魔力”，将非付费用户货币化。在这件事上，Sea Limited毫不掩饰地强调：“...我们过去的记录表明，即使在众所周知难以商业化的市场，我们通常也擅长商业化。所以我们并不真正担心无法将内容商业化。但我们的重点仍然是扩大用户群，使其成为一个更大的平台，使我们能够真正利用它来建立一个更强大的游戏生态系统，其中包含非常强大的社交元素。”</blockquote> Building up eSports as a Social Platform<blockquote>将电子竞技打造为社交平台</blockquote> We shared in our previous deep dive on Garena (link to the article is appendedhere), where Garena's ambitions are beyond just a mobile gaming app. The company has huge ambitions, and they have already been using eSports as the basis to build the community for its gamers and developing it into a social platform that perhaps is similar to what Roblox has advanced. Garena has already highlighted previously its ambitions on building this cohesive and broad social community as it emphasized:<blockquote>我们在之前对Garena的深入研究中分享过（文章链接附在此处），Garena的雄心不仅仅是一个移动游戏应用程序。该公司有着巨大的野心，他们已经在以电子竞技为基础，为其游戏玩家建立社区，并将其发展成为一个社交平台，或许类似于Roblox所推进的。Garena此前已经强调了其建立这个有凝聚力且广泛的社交社区的雄心，并强调：</blockquote> ...developingit into a social platformwhere people not only come to play the core gameplay, but also enjoy other modes: hangout, listen to music, social lives… So our focus is to continue to promote a massive-based online platform and online community and provide them with content and opportunities for socializing engagement, try out different modes of games, try out different characters, avatars or having different ways of playing. The revenue in global eSports is not that significant as it's only expected to reach $1.62B by 2024, as we highlighted in our Garena article. Still, the whole strategic intent is to build the all-encompassing social platform that will drive incredible engagement, platform stickiness beyond what a typical gaming app can do. Importantly, the company is also headquartered in Singapore, where the Singapore government is focused on building the global hub for eSports, as Southeast Asia is expected to be the fastest-growing region for eSports, and the city-state recently opened a huge 12,000-sqft eSports experience center, as the Singapore Tourism Board emphasized:<blockquote>...把它发展成一个社交平台人们不仅来玩核心游戏，还享受其他模式：闲逛、听音乐、社交生活……因此，我们的重点是继续推广基于海量的在线平台和在线社区，为他们提供社交参与的内容和机会，尝试不同的游戏模式，尝试不同的角色、头像或不同的游戏方式。正如我们在Garena文章中强调的那样，全球电子竞技的收入并不那么重要，因为预计到2024年仅会达到$16.2亿。尽管如此，整个战略意图是建立一个包罗万象的社交平台，这将推动难以置信的参与度和平台粘性，超越典型的游戏应用程序。重要的是，该公司的总部也设在新加坡，新加坡政府正致力于在新加坡建设全球电子竞技中心，因为东南亚预计将成为电子竞技发展最快的地区，而这个城市国家最近开设了一个巨大的12,000平方英尺的电子竞技体验中心，正如新加坡旅游局所强调的那样：</blockquote> Our world-class events&nbsp;and digital infrastructure have also made Singapore an attractive location for the industry to hold gaming and e-sports events here. The government will continue to support companies as they push boundaries through experimenting with new and immersive content formats and business models, as well as level up the quality of our local talent to become leading creators of world-class content. Garena also recently brought in \"globally renowned DJs&nbsp;Dimitri Vegas &amp; Like Mike, Alok, and KSHMR for Free Fire’s 4th-anniversary theme song, ‘Reunion,’\" following successful strategies adopted by Roblox in its metaverse development, and we think Garena is really still very early in its opportunity to develop its own metaverse.<blockquote>我们世界级的赛事和数字基础设施也使新加坡成为业界在这里举办游戏和电子竞技赛事的有吸引力的地点。政府将继续支持公司通过尝试新的沉浸式内容格式和商业模式来突破界限，并提高我们本地人才的素质，成为世界级内容的领先创作者。Garena最近还为Free Fire的四周年主题曲《Reunion》带来了“全球知名的DJ Dimitri Vegas&amp;如Mike、Alok和KSHMR”，遵循Roblox在元宇宙开发中采取的成功策略，我们认为Garena开发自己的元宇宙的机会确实还很早。</blockquote> Sea Limited Stakes Its Claim On MercadoLibre's LatAm Leadership<blockquote>Sea Limited押注MercadoLibre在拉丁美洲的领导地位</blockquote> Without a doubt, the one that generates the most interest is the company's foray into LatAm, which Sea Limited recently updated that it has seen tremendous progress. We did a deep dive recently on this topic, and we encourage you to refer to our articlehere. While we think MercadoLibre(NASDAQ:MELI)is the undisputed e-commerce and FinTech leader in LatAm, especially in LatAm's most important market: Brazil, Shopee's progress has been truly remarkable as it's now the #2 ranked e-commerce app in downloads in Brazil according to App Annie. However, although Shopee is surely making meaningful headway in Brazil, MELI is a different competitor than Tokopedia and Lazada. MELI understands LatAm's e-commerce space comprehensively and has a very impressive logistics and fulfillment network that is second to none in LatAm's notoriously challenging logistics infrastructure. Sea Limited also noted this, but the company thinks that it will be able to overcome these difficulties as it continues to invest in LatAm, which will help these third-party logistics providers to improve their efficiencies and competencies over time and close the gap with MELI as SE emphasized:<blockquote>毫无疑问，最令人感兴趣的是该公司进军拉丁美洲，Sea Limited最近更新称，该公司取得了巨大进展。我们最近对这个话题进行了深入探讨，我们鼓励您参考我们的文章。虽然我们认为MercadoLibre（纳斯达克：MELI）是拉丁美洲无可争议的电子商务和金融科技领导者，尤其是在拉丁美洲最重要的市场：巴西，但Shopee的进步确实令人瞩目，因为根据App Annie的数据，它现在是巴西下载量排名第二的电子商务应用程序。然而，尽管Shopee确实在巴西取得了有意义的进展，但MELI是与Tokopedia和Lazada不同的竞争对手。MELI全面了解LatAm的电子商务领域，并拥有令人印象深刻的物流和履行网络，在LatAm众所周知具有挑战性的物流基础设施中首屈一指。Sea Limited也注意到了这一点，但该公司认为，随着继续投资LatAm，它将能够克服这些困难，这将帮助这些第三方物流提供商随着时间的推移提高效率和能力，并缩小与MELI的差距SE强调：</blockquote> ...There hasn't been a lot of volume or traffic broadly generated across different platforms, then probably there is also a lack of initial growth opportunity for logistics. But on the one hand, we are also hopeful that with the growing e-commerce scene in the region and more focus of our global investors into the growth opportunities in the region, we may also see similar trends in those markets. And this is hopefully some contribution we can make to the market in terms of bringing more opportunities, bringing more digitization as well as e-commerce ecosystem that helps not just growth of Shopee but also growth of the surrounding services, including 3PLs within the region. And we've been partnering with 3PLs in our region very successfully in growing the e-commerce ecosystem. And at the same time, these third-party partners also enjoy the very strong growth on their end as well and the close partnership with Shopee. We are very happy to continue to adopt that model going forward in Brazil or the new markets as well. (from Q2'21 earnings call) We have indeed seen this great partnership between Shopee and its logistics partners in Southeast Asia, so much so that one of its key logistics partners in Indonesia:J&amp;T Express, is on track for its own IPO either in Hong Kong or the US. Therefore, while MELI certainly has the important lead in logistics right now, we believe it's only a matter of time the logistics infrastructure in LatAm improves with Shopee's involvement if it is willing to adopt the aggressiveness of its approach with Southeast Asia.<blockquote>……不同平台之间没有广泛产生大量的交易量或流量，那么物流可能也缺乏初始增长机会。但一方面，我们也希望随着该地区电子商务的发展以及我们的全球投资者更加关注该地区的增长机会，我们也可能在这些市场看到类似的趋势。希望这是我们可以为市场做出的一些贡献，带来更多机会，带来更多数字化和电子商务生态系统，这不仅有助于Shopee的增长，也有助于周边服务的增长，包括该地区的第三方物流。我们一直在与我们地区的第三方物流合作，非常成功地发展电子商务生态系统。与此同时，这些第三方合作伙伴也享有非常强劲的增长以及与Shopee的密切合作关系。我们很高兴在巴西或新市场继续采用这种模式。（来自看涨期权21年第二季度财报）我们确实看到了Shopee与其东南亚物流合作伙伴之间的良好合作伙伴关系，以至于其在印度尼西亚的主要物流合作伙伴之一：J&amp;T Express正在进行自己的IPO无论是在香港还是在美国。因此，虽然MELI目前在物流领域确实占据着重要的领先地位，但我们相信，如果Shopee愿意在东南亚采取积极的做法，那么拉丁美洲的物流基础设施在Shopee的参与下得到改善只是时间问题。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b58c9691ecea1beaa8e7bbec9861713\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">MELI Commerce Take Rate. Data source: Company filings<blockquote>MELI商业采取率。数据来源：公司备案</blockquote> If we consider MELI's commerce take rate as compared to Shopee's take rate, readers can easily observe the incredible monetization opportunities that are available in LatAm, and we can easily understand why Sea Limited is so keen to carve out MercadoLibre's leadership there because it's just so attractive. We think as Sea Limited gets more aggressive in its marketing in LatAm, MercadoLibre will start to feel the pressure to rein in its lucrative take rate to compete with Shopee's aggressive marketing tactics.<blockquote>如果我们将MELI的商务采用率与Shopee的采用率进行比较，读者可以很容易地观察到拉丁美洲令人难以置信的货币化机会，我们也可以很容易地理解为什么Sea Limited如此热衷于开拓MercadoLibre在那里的领导地位，因为它太有吸引力了。我们认为，随着Sea Limited在拉丁美洲的营销变得更加积极，MercadoLibre将开始感受到控制其利润丰厚的接受率以与Shopee激进的营销策略竞争的压力。</blockquote> Shopee has engaged international film star Jackie Chan for its global 9.9 campaign, and its Brazilian version (see above) has received even more views (3.3M) than some of its Asian counterparts that we last surveyed: Indonesia (1.2M views) and Singapore (1.6M views). We think Shopee has the potential to inflict huge damage to MELI's highly lucrative take rate as its Southeast Asian operations have achieved significant scale, and we think they are ready to take on LatAm's e-commerce leader with confidence. Readers should note that Shopee's e-commerce operations are way larger than MELI as Shopee boasts an LTM GMV of $48.8B as compared to MELI LTM GMV of $25.6B.<blockquote>Shopee聘请了国际电影明星成龙参与其全球9.9活动，其巴西版本（见上图）的浏览量（330万次）甚至超过了我们上次调查的一些亚洲同行：印度尼西亚（120万次浏览）和新加坡（160万次浏览）。我们认为Shopee有可能对MELI利润丰厚的采用率造成巨大损害，因为其东南亚业务已经达到了相当大的规模，而且我们认为他们已准备好充满信心地与拉丁美洲的电子商务领导者竞争。读者应该注意到，Shopee的电子商务业务比MELI大得多，因为Shopee的LTM GMV为$488亿，而MELI LTM GMV为$256亿。</blockquote> Valuations Are Never Going to be Cheap<blockquote>估值永远不会便宜</blockquote> We used a blended comps valuation comprising its EV/Fwd Rev multiples and its EV/Fwd EBITDA multiples using the following companies in the comps set: Amazon, Tencent, Roblox, MercadoLibre, and Square(NYSE:SQ).<blockquote>我们使用了混合比较估值，包括其EV/Fwd Rev倍数和EV/Fwd EBITDA倍数，使用了比较集中的以下公司：Amazon、腾讯控股、Roblox、MercadoLibre和Square(NYSE：SQ)。</blockquote> Using an aggressive valuation approach based on FY23 consensus estimates of EBITDA and Revenue, we arrived at an implied fair value of about $336.19 (mid-point) under the EBITDA multiples approach and $352.62 (mid-point) under the Revenue approach. Averaging out those fair values will give us a blended fair value of $344.41, which indicates a potential downside of about 2.5% from its last closing price of $353.36.<blockquote>我们使用基于2023财年对EBITDA和收入的共识估计的激进估值方法，根据EBITDA倍数方法得出的隐含公允价值约为336.19美元（中点），根据收入方法得出的隐含公允价值约为352.62美元（中点）。对这些公允价值进行平均后，我们的混合公允价值为344.41美元，这表明较上一收盘价353.36美元可能下跌约2.5%。</blockquote> Readers should also note that we have used an aggressive approach and have not considered a reasonable margin of safety. So, in essence, SE stock looks expensive right now, even though we don't expect it to be cheap for a high-quality growth stock like Sea Limited.<blockquote>读者还应该注意到，我们使用了激进的方法，没有考虑合理的安全边际。因此，从本质上讲，SE股票现在看起来很昂贵，尽管我们预计它对于像Sea Limited这样的优质成长型股票来说并不便宜。</blockquote> SE Stock Price Action and Trend Analysis<blockquote>SE股价走势及趋势分析</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd66ba3ffcdaf31167f72ad7ac24d34c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"420\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">SE stock price action (weekly).<blockquote>SE股价走势（每周）。</blockquote> The rapid ascent of SE stock has left price action investors with little opportunities to add more exposure. However, we have still taken the opportunities in May to add more exposure to our portfolio and haven't added anymore since.<blockquote>SE股票的快速上涨使得价格行为投资者几乎没有机会增加更多敞口。然而，我们仍然抓住5月份的机会增加了投资组合的更多敞口，此后就没有再增加。</blockquote> While we have not witnessed any indication of a momentum shift in SE stock, we seriously don't think we will even consider adding exposure at this price level, as our aggressive valuation approach has shown us that quite a bit of the optimism has already been priced in. The stock is also starting to show flashes of flush-up price action that are indicative of potential bull-trap scenarios. While the price action has not been resolved yet, we are still monitoring for opportunities to perhaps enter cash-secured puts at more reasonable strike prices relative to the expected premium collected to try and take advantage of SE stock's incredible momentum.<blockquote>虽然我们没有看到SE股票势头转变的任何迹象，但我们严重认为我们甚至不会考虑在这个价格水平上增加敞口，因为我们激进的估值方法向我们表明，相当多的乐观情绪已经被定价。该股也开始出现价格上涨的闪光，这表明潜在的牛市陷阱情景。虽然价格走势尚未解决，但我们仍在监测是否有机会以相对于预期收取的溢价更合理的执行价格进入现金担保看跌期权，以尝试利用SE股票令人难以置信的势头。</blockquote> Hence, we hope that we have demonstrated in our earlier sections that Sea Limited is definitely in the early innings of its market opportunity. Still, the level of optimism in the stock will need some leveling off first so that long-term investors can add exposure at a more reasonable price level.<blockquote>因此，我们希望我们已经在前面的章节中证明了Sea Limited肯定正处于市场机会的早期阶段。尽管如此，该股的乐观程度首先需要趋于平稳，以便长期投资者能够以更合理的价格水平增加投资。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453936-sea-limited-stock-good-buy-long-term\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SE":"Sea Ltd"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453936-sea-limited-stock-good-buy-long-term","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120889633","content_text":"Summary\n\nSea Limited is a very high-quality growth stock that surprisingly receives less attention than Alibaba, MercadoLibre, and Amazon, even though it has outperformed all of them, hands down.\nWe help investors understand the key metrics in a useful analytical framework to evaluate Sea Limited's growth opportunities and whether it is worthy of a long-term position.\nLastly, we present our valuation argument to help our readers to decide whether they should add Sea Limited stock right now.\n\nnuttapong/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nInvestment Thesis\nSea Limited(NYSE:SE)is one of our core holdings in our growth portfolio and one that we have taken the opportunity to add on major dips in the uptrend over the last year as the stock's incredible momentum saw it easily outperforming its e-commerce peers and mobile gaming peers.\nFor growth investors, Sea's incredible growth trajectory has been truly phenomenal, coupled with it being free of Beijing's oversights that saw its Chinese peers fall like dominoes, stunning even institutional investors with the pace of the government's \"rectification\" adjustments.\nSea's ascent has also been somewhat of a conundrum for value investors, as they don't get how an unprofitable company can be trading at such sky-high valuations without consequences.\nTherefore, to answer whether Sea Limited stock is a good long-term buy for investors, we will show our readers how to apply the appropriate analytical framework and valuation treatment to the company, based on its performance and its projections moving forward, so that investors can make meaningful decisions on whether they think Sea Limited is a worthy long-term addition to their portfolio now.\nFor investors who are new to Sea Limited, we have recently written several articles on the company, which you can refer to them as a preamble.\nSea & Peers' stock YTD performance (as of 3 Sep 21)\nThis year, Sea has been one of our portfolio's leading performers as the stock raced to an 83% YTD lead that easily outperformed all its peers and SPDR S&P 500 ETF(NYSEARCA:SPY). This performance is even more incredible because it came off an outstanding 2020, where it also outperformed with a 392% return.\nWhile the rest of its American and Chinese peers often received more coverage than this Singapore-headquartered company, it has been Sea which has been quietly delivering. It has been executing, expanding its Garena gaming ecosystem, and reaching new milestones. It's been scaling its e-commerce footprint to LatAm and demonstrating to Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN) that they are not experiencing any reopening headwinds. This is in contrast to what Amazon indicated in its recent earnings. The company is also growing its Sea Money footprint, especially through the Shopee/Shopee Pay flywheel, as the company stakes its FinTech leadership ambitions against Southeast Asia's FinTech leader Grab(NASDAQ:AGC).\nAs a result of Sea Limited's incredible success, the group's China-born CEO Forrest Li is also now Singapore's richest man with a net worth of $20.3B.\nSE quant rating (momentum). Source: Seeking Alpha Premium\nWe have always reminded investors that Sea stock is one that you should never bet against even if you are bearish on its long-term prognosis. The stock has made one of the strongest upside moves we have seen for stocks in our growth portfolio. This is also corroborated by Seeking Alpha's proprietary quant momentum rating, giving it the best possible A+ grade on its most recent performance.\nGiven the company and the stock's stupendous performances so far, we think it's only apt that investors ask whether SE's future optimism has been largely priced in, which is especially important for new investors who have yet to add its stock, where we will highlight the analytical framework on how investors can use to consider the company's prospects moving forward.\nMonitor Its Revenue Growth Closely\nSea Limited quarterly revenue. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nSea Limited quarterly revenue YoY growth. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nSea Limited impressed with another awesome quarter of topline growth as total revenue grew 159% YoY on revenue of $2.28B. Its QoQ performance was also remarkable with a 29% QoQ growth, as the company shows that its gangbusters growth knows \"no limit.\"\nSea Limited GAAP quarterly operating margins. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nFor companies like Sea, whose strategy is still focused very much on topline growth and building scale efficiencies in the process, we should not be too concerned with its negative operating margins, as long as the company clearly demonstrated that it could grow rapidly like in Sea's case, and also achieve economies of scale through ramping revenue as it seeks out its \"blue oceans.\" We also articulated this point in a recent article on Snowflake(NYSE:SNOW), which operates in a huge market with a massive opportunity to expand, and the firm has shown that it can execute its strategies very well to capture those revenue opportunities despite having negative operating margins right now.\nTherefore, Sea Limited has certainly struck the right notes here, and we see no cause for concern so far. What matters for investors now is whether the company is still expected to grow this rapidly moving forward.\nSea Limited revenue mean consensus estimates. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nSea Limited consensus revenue estimates revision trend. Source: Seeking Alpha Premium\nReaders should easily glean that the Street upgraded revenue forecasts for the company after Q2's earnings release from what they projected post Q1 earnings. For example, revenue projection for FY21 has been increased by 11.5% to reflect the improved guidance from the company. Even though projections for FY24 to FY25 look rather tepid, readers should note that only three analysts covered the FY24 projections, while only two covered for FY25, compared to the 18-21 analysts who covered FY21 to FY23 numbers. As a result, we will also focus our discussion up to FY23 numbers to keep them meaningful.\nThe expected revenue CAGR from FY20 to FY23 is 59.1%, while it reads 40.1% from FY21 to FY23. Therefore, the market is still expecting Sea Limited to deliver remarkable topline growth rates moving forward.At the same time, we are cautiously optimistic about Sea Limited's future, under the skillful stewardship of Group CEO Forrest Li and his management team. The team includes his two very competent business unit chiefs Chris Feng and Terry Zhao. Feng was born in China and leads Shopee and Sea Money. He is a Stanford alumnus like Li and he was recruited from Lazada(NYSE:BABA)by Li in 2014. Feng is said to be a “very, very smart and very, very confident” person who “reacts quickly and has excellent abilities of recall.” Zhao is the president of Garena. Li has kept Zhao by his side since the company's inception. Li is unlike Alibaba's Jack Ma and prefers to keep a modest profile. Still, his team's execution has been nothing short of outstanding, and we see no reason to think otherwise moving forward for this founder-led company.\nKeep a Close Watch on Shopee's Adj. EBITDA\nQuarterly Adj. EBITDA. Data source: Company filings\nQuarterly Adj. EBITDA by segments. Data source: Company filings\nOf particular concern, though, is that the company's Adj. EBITDA turned negative for the first time since Q2'20 as the increase in Adj. EBITDA losses from Shopee were greater than what Garena could cover in Q2'21. Investors should be able to glean from the second chart where it shows that Shopee's Adj. EBITDA losses increased to $679.77M in Q2'21, representing a 64.8% QoQ increase, while Garena's Adj. EBITDA only managed a 3.3% QoQ increase in Q2'21.\nDespite this observation, the company highlighted that its Malaysia market had turned Adj. EBITDA profitable, joining its Taiwan market. Therefore, we believe the huge increase in burn rate for Shopee is likely in its largest markets by gross merchandise value (GMV), such as Indonesia and Thailand. The company also alluded to this in its earnings call as it emphasized:\n\n And in terms of sales and marketing and related to competitive dynamics, I think we are -- again, as we discussed it before, given our strong market leadership, we're in a good position now that our sales and marketing is more driven by our view about the efficiency of investment into various markets at various points of time, for example, any shopping event season, any particular opportunities to promote the brand, et cetera...\n And in terms of the cash burn...as we look at the market opportunities, the timing of the market, for example, in Q2, we have Ramadan season in our several largest markets including Indonesia.And this is a time where investment into the growth and to promote e-commerce adoption is very efficient. We have increased our buy frequency overall to more than 6x a month.\n And in Indonesia, it has exceeded 7x per month, which we believe is very healthy for a marketplace platform.\n\nShopee Indonesia 76th Independence Day poster (Shopee ada untuk Indonesia: Shopee is for Indonesia). Source: Shopee Indonesia LinkedIn\nNow, we emphasized Ramadan (which is not exclusive to Indonesia per se) because it's a massive annual event in Indonesia. We had a sojourn in Jakarta, Indonesia, for a year, and we can tell you it's one of the most important highlights in Indonesia's annual calendar. Therefore, we cannot further underscore the opportunities to boost sales during this important event. It shows that Shopee's management clearly understands its most important market very well, and Shopee also aligned its progress with Indonesia's progress as the country celebrated its 76th Independence Day on 17 Aug 21, as Shopee Indonesia reminded Indonesians that\"Shopee is for Indonesia.\"\nShopee Indonesia has quickly moved onto its next big 9.9 shopping event, and this time around, they recruited well-known Indonesian actor and martial artist Joe Taslim, who starred in the recent Mortal Kombat film as Sub-Zero. For readers familiar with Shopee's advertising strategy, the company often stars well-known local artists in its promotional campaigns. The ads are often quirky and dramatic, which helps capture the users' attention very easily and is often memorable. This recipe has served Shopee very well, and somehow its keen regional competitors such as Lazada and Tokopedia have found it difficult to emulate. We encourage investors and readers to continue keeping a close watch on Shopee's most important market moving forward.\nTherefore, while observing quarterly Adj. EBITDA moving back into negative territory wasn't exactly a welcome development; we need to consider the context. In Shopee's case, it was certainly an opportunity that they needed to undertake to take full advantage of the opportunity to boost sales during the important Ramadan festival which is mainly celebrated in Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore. Therefore, we wouldn't be too concerned over a quarter's development and start to be worried, but instead, we should continue to monitor Shopee's Adj. EBITDA's development over the next few quarters, and give the company some space to execute its e-commerce strategies.\nWatch for Advertising's Share of Revenue\nShopee Adj. EBITDA per order. Data source: Company filings\nShopee quarterly take rate. Data source: Company filings\nAs a result of Shoppe's increased Adj. EBITDA losses due to its heavier burn rate for Q2'21, we observed Shopee's Adj. EBITDA loss per order regressed to $0.41, from $0.38 in Q1'21. However, readers should note that this only represented a 7.9% QoQ increase, which is certainly much lower than the 64.8% QoQ increase in total Adj. EBITDA losses. This clearly shows that Shopee is benefiting from greater scale efficiencies, despite the larger burn rate due to the heavier investments in the quarter. In addition, the Adj. EBITDA loss per order was also not \"that bad,\" as it was still in line with Q4'20's metric. Moreover, we have certainly seen worse days, and this was nothing spectacular.\nImportantly, we noticed a marked and consistent improvement in Shopee's take rate for Q2'21 as it improved to 6.7% compared to 6.1% in Q1'21. Sea Limited was very clear on its earnings call where this improvement was mainly attributed to as it emphasized: \"This deepening monetization was driven mainly bygrowing merchant investments in marketing and advertisement on the Shopee platformto attract better and serve buyers.\"\nWe think this is a critical development in Shopee's progress as it continues to scale rapidly. For example, in our recent Amazon article, we showed just how massive the advertising opportunity is for the company as it's now Amazon's fastest-growing revenue driver, and 90% of its ad revenue is centered on its e-commerce marketplace.\nShopee quarterly sales & marketing (S&M) margin. Data source: Company filings\nTherefore, even though we saw a marked increase in Shopee's S&M margin from 49% in Q1'21 to 56.2% in Q2'21 (14.7% QoQ increase), we encourage investors to consider the company's overall Adj. EBITDA per order, which shows that the company has tremendous leverage to engage in aggressive marketing activities through better monetization in Shopee's platform.\nGarena's Bookings Growth Seems to Be Slowing Down\nGarena bookings. Data source: Company filings\nThe company reported a fantastic quarter for Garena again as it topped several charts. Sea highlighted that Garena's Free Fire continues to maintain incredible momentum in Southeast Asia, LatAm, and India as the highest-grossing game. In the US, Free Fire was \"ranked the highest-grossing mobile battle royale game for the past two quarters based on App Annie. Additionally, Free Fire was the second highest-grossing mobile game in the U.S. on Google Play across all games categories in the second quarter as well.\"\nWhile this is certainly impressive, we prefer to look at the global perspective on how Free Fire has performed against its peers. According to Sensor Tower data for H1'21, while Free Fire is the #2 top gross gaming app behind Moon Active's Coin Master on Google Play, it ranked only #8 in overall revenue when we included the App Store's top-grossing gaming apps such as Tencent's(OTCPK:TCEHY)Honor of Kings (#1 overall) and PUBG Mobile battle-royale game (#2 overall), and also Roblox (#4 overall)(NYSE:RBLX). Therefore, while Free Fire has been doing well in markets where the Android operating system (OS) is dominant, it hasn't performed quite as well in North America, where iOS is the leading OS (as we showed in our Digital Turbine(NASDAQ:APPS)article appendedhere). The US is the largest and the most important mobile gaming market, as it accounted for28%of the mobile gaming market share in 2020. Garena has never been a strong performer on iOS, and if the company can improve its performance in the App Store, the boost could be tremendous to Garena.\nWhile the company's bookings for Q2'21 remain strong as it posted a QoQ increase of 9.1% to $1.2B from $1.1B in Q1'21, the company only raised the guidance from $4.5B to $4.7B in bookings for FY21. When we consider H1'21's collective bookings of $2.3B, the company is therefore expecting H2'21 bookings to come in at $2.3B, which means they aren't expecting any material growth in bookings for the rest of the year as compared to H1'21. This was also picked up by one of the analysts on the conference call, and Group Chief Corporate Officer Yanjun Wang reminded:\n\n We believe the overall guidance showed a more than 40% year-on-year growth compared to last year, which is also a record year for us with the commencement of lockdown. And I think this is a very strong performance already. And our focus, as you can tell from game and the metrics we have indicated as well as our views in terms of how to grow our gaming platform,\n is to continue to first and foremost to grow our user base and also pay user baseacross the various markets in the world as we continue to see strong potential growth. (from Q2'21 earnings call)\n\nQuarter paying users (QPU) / Quarterly active users (QAU). Data source: Company filings\nAverage Booking Per User (ABPU) and Average Booking Per Paying User (ABPPU)). Data source: Company filings\nThe company's bookings trends can certainly be observed on a per-user or per paying user basis. The ABPPU has certainly been trending down, which reflects a drop in monetization per paying user, which is important as paying users are the ones that generate revenue for Garena. However, we didn't really observe a meaningful drop in the ABPU trend, despite the drop in ABPPU. This shows that even though there is \"less meat\" per paying user, newly minted paying users have been supporting the bookings, which we can certainly observe from the first chart where the QPU / QAU ratio has been consistently increasing, indicating that Garena has been getting better at converting and monetizing its huge non-paying users base. We think this is of huge significance when we consider that only 12.7% of users are paying users as of Q2'21, leaving the company massive opportunities to continue \"working its magic\" on monetizing the non-paying users. On this matter, Sea Limited was unabashed as it emphasized: \"...Our past track record has shown that we're generally good at commercialization in even markets that are known to be difficult for commercialization. So we don't really worry about not being able to commercialize the content down the road. But our focus continues to be growing the user base and making this an even larger platform that allows us to really tap on into it to build a stronger game ecosystem with very strong social elements in it.\"\nBuilding up eSports as a Social Platform\nWe shared in our previous deep dive on Garena (link to the article is appendedhere), where Garena's ambitions are beyond just a mobile gaming app. The company has huge ambitions, and they have already been using eSports as the basis to build the community for its gamers and developing it into a social platform that perhaps is similar to what Roblox has advanced. Garena has already highlighted previously its ambitions on building this cohesive and broad social community as it emphasized:\n\n...developingit into a social platformwhere people not only come to play the core gameplay, but also enjoy other modes: hangout, listen to music, social lives… So our focus is to continue to promote a massive-based online platform and online community and provide them with content and opportunities for socializing engagement, try out different modes of games, try out different characters, avatars or having different ways of playing.\n\nThe revenue in global eSports is not that significant as it's only expected to reach $1.62B by 2024, as we highlighted in our Garena article. Still, the whole strategic intent is to build the all-encompassing social platform that will drive incredible engagement, platform stickiness beyond what a typical gaming app can do. Importantly, the company is also headquartered in Singapore, where the Singapore government is focused on building the global hub for eSports, as Southeast Asia is expected to be the fastest-growing region for eSports, and the city-state recently opened a huge 12,000-sqft eSports experience center, as the Singapore Tourism Board emphasized:\n\n Our world-class events and digital infrastructure have also made Singapore an attractive location for the industry to hold gaming and e-sports events here. The government will continue to support companies as they push boundaries through experimenting with new and immersive content formats and business models, as well as level up the quality of our local talent to become leading creators of world-class content.\n\nGarena also recently brought in \"globally renowned DJs Dimitri Vegas & Like Mike, Alok, and KSHMR for Free Fire’s 4th-anniversary theme song, ‘Reunion,’\" following successful strategies adopted by Roblox in its metaverse development, and we think Garena is really still very early in its opportunity to develop its own metaverse.\nSea Limited Stakes Its Claim On MercadoLibre's LatAm Leadership\nWithout a doubt, the one that generates the most interest is the company's foray into LatAm, which Sea Limited recently updated that it has seen tremendous progress. We did a deep dive recently on this topic, and we encourage you to refer to our articlehere. While we think MercadoLibre(NASDAQ:MELI)is the undisputed e-commerce and FinTech leader in LatAm, especially in LatAm's most important market: Brazil, Shopee's progress has been truly remarkable as it's now the #2 ranked e-commerce app in downloads in Brazil according to App Annie. However, although Shopee is surely making meaningful headway in Brazil, MELI is a different competitor than Tokopedia and Lazada. MELI understands LatAm's e-commerce space comprehensively and has a very impressive logistics and fulfillment network that is second to none in LatAm's notoriously challenging logistics infrastructure. Sea Limited also noted this, but the company thinks that it will be able to overcome these difficulties as it continues to invest in LatAm, which will help these third-party logistics providers to improve their efficiencies and competencies over time and close the gap with MELI as SE emphasized:\n\n ...There hasn't been a lot of volume or traffic broadly generated across different platforms, then probably there is also a lack of initial growth opportunity for logistics. But on the one hand, we are also hopeful that with the growing e-commerce scene in the region and more focus of our global investors into the growth opportunities in the region, we may also see similar trends in those markets. And this is hopefully some contribution we can make to the market in terms of bringing more opportunities, bringing more digitization as well as e-commerce ecosystem that helps not just growth of Shopee but also growth of the surrounding services, including 3PLs within the region. And we've been partnering with 3PLs in our region very successfully in growing the e-commerce ecosystem. And at the same time, these third-party partners also enjoy the very strong growth on their end as well and the close partnership with Shopee. We are very happy to continue to adopt that model going forward in Brazil or the new markets as well. (from Q2'21 earnings call)\n\nWe have indeed seen this great partnership between Shopee and its logistics partners in Southeast Asia, so much so that one of its key logistics partners in Indonesia:J&T Express, is on track for its own IPO either in Hong Kong or the US. Therefore, while MELI certainly has the important lead in logistics right now, we believe it's only a matter of time the logistics infrastructure in LatAm improves with Shopee's involvement if it is willing to adopt the aggressiveness of its approach with Southeast Asia.\nMELI Commerce Take Rate. Data source: Company filings\nIf we consider MELI's commerce take rate as compared to Shopee's take rate, readers can easily observe the incredible monetization opportunities that are available in LatAm, and we can easily understand why Sea Limited is so keen to carve out MercadoLibre's leadership there because it's just so attractive. We think as Sea Limited gets more aggressive in its marketing in LatAm, MercadoLibre will start to feel the pressure to rein in its lucrative take rate to compete with Shopee's aggressive marketing tactics.\nShopee has engaged international film star Jackie Chan for its global 9.9 campaign, and its Brazilian version (see above) has received even more views (3.3M) than some of its Asian counterparts that we last surveyed: Indonesia (1.2M views) and Singapore (1.6M views). We think Shopee has the potential to inflict huge damage to MELI's highly lucrative take rate as its Southeast Asian operations have achieved significant scale, and we think they are ready to take on LatAm's e-commerce leader with confidence. Readers should note that Shopee's e-commerce operations are way larger than MELI as Shopee boasts an LTM GMV of $48.8B as compared to MELI LTM GMV of $25.6B.\nValuations Are Never Going to be Cheap\nWe used a blended comps valuation comprising its EV/Fwd Rev multiples and its EV/Fwd EBITDA multiples using the following companies in the comps set: Amazon, Tencent, Roblox, MercadoLibre, and Square(NYSE:SQ).\nUsing an aggressive valuation approach based on FY23 consensus estimates of EBITDA and Revenue, we arrived at an implied fair value of about $336.19 (mid-point) under the EBITDA multiples approach and $352.62 (mid-point) under the Revenue approach. Averaging out those fair values will give us a blended fair value of $344.41, which indicates a potential downside of about 2.5% from its last closing price of $353.36.\nReaders should also note that we have used an aggressive approach and have not considered a reasonable margin of safety. So, in essence, SE stock looks expensive right now, even though we don't expect it to be cheap for a high-quality growth stock like Sea Limited.\nSE Stock Price Action and Trend Analysis\nSE stock price action (weekly).\nThe rapid ascent of SE stock has left price action investors with little opportunities to add more exposure. However, we have still taken the opportunities in May to add more exposure to our portfolio and haven't added anymore since.\nWhile we have not witnessed any indication of a momentum shift in SE stock, we seriously don't think we will even consider adding exposure at this price level, as our aggressive valuation approach has shown us that quite a bit of the optimism has already been priced in. The stock is also starting to show flashes of flush-up price action that are indicative of potential bull-trap scenarios. While the price action has not been resolved yet, we are still monitoring for opportunities to perhaps enter cash-secured puts at more reasonable strike prices relative to the expected premium collected to try and take advantage of SE stock's incredible momentum.\nHence, we hope that we have demonstrated in our earlier sections that Sea Limited is definitely in the early innings of its market opportunity. Still, the level of optimism in the stock will need some leveling off first so that long-term investors can add exposure at a more reasonable price level.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1292,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":36,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}

Is Sea Limited Stock A Good Buy For The Long-Term?<blockquote>从长远来看，Sea Limited股票值得买入吗？</blockquote>

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