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2021-11-25

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Tesla Memes Have Peaked On WallStreetBets - Why That's Bad For The Share Price<blockquote>特斯拉迷因在WallStreetBets上达到顶峰——为什么这对股价不利</blockquote>

Summary Tesla is a Reddit darling, but coverage has peaked, which generally precedes a price fall.

Tesla Memes Have Peaked On WallStreetBets - Why That's Bad For The Share Price<blockquote>特斯拉迷因在WallStreetBets上达到顶峰——为什么这对股价不利</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":877086324,"tweetId":"877086324","gmtCreate":1637842363886,"gmtModify":1637842363886,"author":{"id":3579076958972231,"idStr":"3579076958972231","authorId":3579076958972231,"authorIdStr":"3579076958972231","name":"longls","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/447165139381fe0d9b0eab06c8fdbbd0","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":5,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Good</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Good</body></html>","text":"Good","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/877086324","repostId":1120047068,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1120047068","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1637817955,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1120047068?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-25 13:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Memes Have Peaked On WallStreetBets - Why That's Bad For The Share Price<blockquote>特斯拉迷因在WallStreetBets上达到顶峰——为什么这对股价不利</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120047068","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nTesla is a Reddit darling, but coverage has peaked, which generally precedes a price fall.\n","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Tesla is a Reddit darling, but coverage has peaked, which generally precedes a price fall.</li> <li>Elon Musk is famously aware of and actively follows the popular subreddit WallStreetBets and may leverage that following to drive the Tesla share price higher.</li> <li>WallStreetBets is made up of 11.2m members and growing, mostly retail traders, who are unpredictable in their mob mentality.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f67c9cf0e3bb1692edac18342c9aa416\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">RichVintage/E+ via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>特斯拉是Reddit的宠儿，但报道量已经达到顶峰，这通常先于价格下跌。</li><li>众所周知，Elon Musk知道并积极关注热门的Reddit子网站WallStreetBets，并可能利用这些关注来推高特斯拉股价。</li><li>WallStreetBets由1120万会员和不断增长的散户组成，他们的暴民心态不可预测。</li></ul>RichVintage/E+来自Getty Images</blockquote> Meme Stock Mentions As An Indicator<blockquote>Meme股票被提及作为指标</blockquote> I have a theory that the only reason Musk's Tesla (TSLA) has achieved the eye watering market capitalisation of $1.141T, with a P/E ratio of 368, is because Elon Musk himself is a master of PR and marketing.<blockquote>我有一个理论，马斯克的特斯拉（TSLA）之所以能以368的市盈率达到1.141美元的令人瞠目结舌的市值，唯一的原因是埃隆·马斯克本人是公关和营销大师。</blockquote> Core to this theory is that supply and demand is what drives a share's price (whereas fundamental and perceived value is what drives the individual investor to buy or sell), and demand can be manipulated through awareness and PR efforts. I believe prices will revert back to fundamental value in the long run.<blockquote>这一理论的核心是，供给和需求是推动股票价格的因素（而基本面和感知价值是推动个人投资者买入或卖出的因素），需求可以通过意识和公关努力来操纵。我相信从长远来看，价格将恢复到基本价值。</blockquote> I argue that this awareness effect applies more to retail investors than to more sophisticated investors or investment funds, though this would obviously have a flow-on effect on them.<blockquote>我认为，这种意识效应更多地适用于散户投资者，而不是更老练的投资者或投资基金，尽管这显然会对他们产生流动效应。</blockquote> A more traditional example of this theory is how news and announcements affect share prices, albeit they are more closely tied to fundamental value.<blockquote>这一理论的一个更传统的例子是新闻和公告如何影响股价，尽管它们与基本价值的关系更密切。</blockquote> Subreddit WallStreetBets As A Catalyst<blockquote>Subreddit WallStreetBets作为催化剂</blockquote> The Reddit Community WallStreetBets (WSB) is infamous for its role in the January 2021 GameStop saga, which led to a huge price increase in the retail firm's share price after the Reddit community&nbsp;popularised day trading of the firm.<blockquote>Reddit社区WallStreetBets(WSB)因其在2021年1月游戏驿站事件中所扮演的角色而臭名昭著，在Reddit社区普及该公司的日间交易后，该零售公司的股价大幅上涨。</blockquote> WSB is a community of mostly retail traders, some with no formal investing education or prior experience, and utilising margin loans through trading apps like Robinhood (though more experienced traders are present and active in the subreddit) to invest in the financial markets.<blockquote>WSB主要是一个由散户投资者组成的团体，有些人没有正式的投资教育或经验，并使用诸如Robinhood这样的交易应用程序（尽管有更多经验丰富的交易员在subreddit中活跃）利用保证金贷款投资金融市场。</blockquote> The GameStop saga may be (mostly) over now, but this community is still thriving. At the time of the GameStop saga, the community had less than 3m members, while today it has over 11.2m members.<blockquote>游戏驿站传奇现在可能（大部分）已经结束，但这个社区仍然蓬勃发展。在游戏驿站传奇发生时，该社区的成员不到300万，而今天它的成员超过1120万。</blockquote> Given the almost 4X growth in community size thanks to the amount of attention generated in the GameStop saga, it's arguable that the community is more powerful than ever before in the day trading space.<blockquote>由于游戏驿站传奇引起的关注，社区规模增长了近4倍，可以说社区在日内交易领域比以往任何时候都更加强大。</blockquote> The Elon Musk/WSB Connection<blockquote>埃隆·马斯克/WSB的联系</blockquote> Musk is famously aware of, and following, the WSB subreddit,once tweeting to his 43m followers a link to the subreddit&nbsp;with the caption \"Gamestonk.\"<blockquote>众所周知，马斯克了解并关注WSB subreddit，曾在推特上向他的4300万粉丝发送了该subreddit的链接，标题为“Gamestonk”。</blockquote> Musk has also claimed that short sellers have a negative impact on the valuation of TSLA, and it's not hard to imagine how he might see WSB as a tool to affect the share price.<blockquote>马斯克还声称，卖空者对TSLA的估值有负面影响，不难想象他会如何将WSB视为影响股价的工具。</blockquote> Musk is regarded as a hero by the WSB community, who are very aware that he follows them, and often post memes or comments in a worshipful manner,declaring him a \"Meme Lord.\"<blockquote>马斯克被WSB社区视为英雄，他们非常清楚他在关注他们，经常以崇拜的方式发布模因或评论，宣称他是“模因领主”。</blockquote> Tracking WSB Community Sentiment<blockquote>跟踪WSB社区情绪</blockquote> Thanks to a site called&nbsp;Swaggy Stocks, we are able to track WSB sentiment towards TSLA and count TSLA mentions (and various other firms that get attention on the subreddit, such as the infamous GameStop (GME) short squeeze).<blockquote>多亏了一个名为Swaggy Stocks的网站，我们能够跟踪WSB对TSLA的情绪并统计TSLA的提及次数（以及在subreddit上引起关注的各种其他公司，例如臭名昭著的游戏驿站(GME)空头挤压）。</blockquote> If we take a look at a 1-year history of the TSLA share price vs WSB mentions and sentiment, a cursory glance reveals a general correlation between mentions and upward price activity.<blockquote>如果我们看一下TSLA股价与WSB提及次数和情绪的1年历史，粗略浏览一下就会发现提及次数与价格上涨活动之间存在普遍相关性。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f24f2a63740b288ba4dad63e8fdaed3f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"490\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Swaggy Stocks<blockquote>资料来源：Swaggy股票</blockquote> Another clear trend is the overwhelming positive sentiment towards TSLA (and almost any other stock mentioned there) from the WSB community. Search many of these comments and posts, and you'll see the phrase \"Stonks only go up!\" appear across many, many posts.<blockquote>另一个明显的趋势是WSB社区对TSLA（以及其中提到的几乎所有其他股票）的压倒性积极情绪。搜索许多这样的评论和帖子，你会看到短语“Stonks只会上涨！”出现在很多很多帖子中。</blockquote> Do Other Mediums Have The Same Correlation?<blockquote>其他媒体也有同样的相关性吗？</blockquote> Swaggy Stocks also tracks TSLA mentions across more traditional news sources and other social media sites.<blockquote>Swaggy Stocks还跟踪更传统的新闻来源和其他社交媒体网站上对特斯拉的提及。</blockquote> Searching social media for discussion and due-diligence style posts, Swaggy Stocks is able to show the total number of mentions TSLA generates, to compare with WSB.<blockquote>Swaggy Stocks在社交媒体上搜索讨论和尽职调查风格的帖子，能够显示TSLA产生的提及总数，以便与WSB进行比较。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a1e518a39e21d05f04e11f43de66c6a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"593\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Swaggy Stocks<blockquote>资料来源：Swaggy股票</blockquote> There appears to be a very similar correlation between broader social media mentions of TSLA and stock price activity, but it appears that this attention is reactionary rather than a lead indicator. It is, however, a confirmation of awareness of the stock following along with major price movements, up or down.<blockquote>社交媒体对TSLA的更广泛提及与股价活动之间似乎存在非常相似的相关性，但这种关注似乎是反动的，而不是领先指标。然而，这证实了人们对股票跟随重大价格变动（上涨或下跌）的认识。</blockquote> What Trends Can We See?<blockquote>我们可以看到哪些趋势？</blockquote> Looking at the two graphs of mentions vs stock price, the most prominent trend is how TSLA mentions, and discussion peaks mostly as major price spikes occur. It does not appear that mentions are a leading indicator, but perhaps a slow-down in mentions might indicate that any further major price movements are not to be expected.<blockquote>从提及次数与股价的两张图表来看，最突出的趋势是TSLA的提及方式，讨论大多在价格大幅飙升时达到顶峰。提及次数似乎不是一个领先指标，但提及次数的放缓可能表明预计不会出现任何进一步的重大价格变动。</blockquote> In my eyes, the more interesting time period (circled in red below) is where mentions of TSLA slowed considerably, and the stock price dwindled following the peak in mentions.<blockquote>在我看来，更有趣的时期（下面用红色圈出）是特斯拉的提及量大幅放缓，股价在提及量达到峰值后下跌。</blockquote> I argue that in this instance, when the stock fell from $900 to $600, WSB retail investors attention was diverted from the firm and this halted the upward price movement, sending the stock backward towards it's true long-run fundamental value.<blockquote>我认为，在这种情况下，当股票从900美元跌至600美元时，WSB散户投资者的注意力从该公司转移，这阻止了价格上涨，使股票回到其真正的长期基本价值。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5f5e7c4dafad1ac25fb02d09b089e56\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"490\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Swaggy Stocks<blockquote>资料来源：Swaggy股票</blockquote> Does This Awareness Effect Apply To Other Stocks?<blockquote>这种认知效应是否适用于其他股票？</blockquote> Given GME was the beginning of notoriety for WSB, it's worth comparing the GME ticker to WSB sentiment to search for similar trends.<blockquote>鉴于GME是WSB声名狼藉的开始，因此值得将GME股票与WSB情绪进行比较以寻找类似的趋势。</blockquote> Again, large price movements occur around the same time as WSB commentary spikes, and prices tend to drift lower as attention drifts away.<blockquote>同样，价格大幅波动大约与WSB评论高峰同时发生，随着注意力的转移，价格往往会走低。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bcda7b46bafc07f02eaa854255c64d63\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"679\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Swaggy Stocks<blockquote>资料来源：Swaggy股票</blockquote> Looking at a third firm, Apple (AAPL), to compare WSB activity with the largest market cap firm in the US, the correlation between mentions and price activity is much weaker, suggesting that there may be a limit to the WSB community's influence. While activity still follows price movements, there is also the possibility WSB is just simply not as interested in AAPL as it is in TSLA or GME.<blockquote>以第三家公司苹果(AAPL)为例，将WSB活动与美国市值最大的公司进行比较，提及次数与价格活动之间的相关性要弱得多，这表明WSB社区的影响力可能有限。虽然活动仍然跟随价格变动，但WSB也有可能对AAPL不像对TSLA或GME那样感兴趣。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af3145b857ea22dc2550227f9f93826b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"354\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Swaggy Stocks<blockquote>资料来源：Swaggy股票</blockquote> The Investment View: Results May Vary<blockquote>投资观点：结果可能有所不同</blockquote> I would argue that WSB is not perhaps a leading indicator, but it does play a part in stock awareness and encourages new investors to enter the market.<blockquote>我认为WSB可能不是一个领先指标，但它确实在股票认知度方面发挥了作用，并鼓励新投资者进入市场。</blockquote> I would also argue that 11.2m retail investors is certainly a force to be reckoned with and worth paying attention to - perhaps not a guidance of which stock will boom next but rather which ones are overpriced or have peaked.<blockquote>我还认为，1120万散户投资者无疑是一股不可忽视、值得关注的力量——也许不是哪只股票接下来会繁荣的指引，而是哪些股票定价过高或已经见顶。</blockquote> Overall, there's a strong sense that stocks that receive attention from WSB undergo price volatility, and do drift back to their long-run fundamental value given enough time.<blockquote>总体而言，人们强烈认为，受到WSB关注的股票会经历价格波动，并且在足够的时间内确实会回到其长期基本价值。</blockquote> Perhaps it's a case of, if WSB is promoting the stock, you're already too late.<blockquote>也许是这样的情况，如果WSB正在推广该股票，那么你已经太晚了。</blockquote> So What Does This Mean For TSLA?<blockquote>那么这对特斯拉意味着什么呢？</blockquote> Coming full circle back to TSLA, and reviewing their WSB sentiment chart, I feel there is strong argument to be made that the stock is over-priced due to the presence of retail traders.<blockquote>回到特斯拉，回顾他们的WSB情绪图表，我觉得有强有力的论据表明，由于散户交易者的存在，该股定价过高。</blockquote> However, monitoring WSB activity may give investors a helpful indicator of when TSLA may be about to experience a price correction as retail investor's attention is drawn away from the firm.<blockquote>然而，监控WSB活动可能会为投资者提供一个有用的指标，表明随着散户投资者的注意力从该公司转移，特斯拉何时可能会经历价格调整。</blockquote> With that said, Elon Musk remains a variable worth watching given his awareness of the subreddit and its effect on the market, and he has the platform to drive attention back onto TSLA as he sees fit.<blockquote>话虽如此，鉴于埃隆·马斯克对Reddit子版块的认识及其对市场的影响，他仍然是一个值得关注的变量，而且他有一个平台可以在他认为合适的时候将注意力重新吸引到TSLA上。</blockquote> The Value Of A Mention<blockquote>提及的价值</blockquote> It's hard to place a quantifiable value on what a mention on WSB is worth to a firm, as individually they are probably worth close to $0. But more significant interest could have a life changing short term impact on current shareholders as the value of their portfolio balloons thanks to retail traders taking an interest in one of their holdings.<blockquote>很难量化提及WSB对一家公司的价值，因为它们的价值可能接近0美元。但更大的兴趣可能会对现有股东产生改变生活的短期影响，因为由于散户交易者对其持有的一种股票感兴趣，他们的投资组合价值会膨胀。</blockquote> On the other hand, short sellers (such as those shorting GME earlier this year) could feel substantial pain, as their positions require covering at ever increasing prices.<blockquote>另一方面，卖空者（例如今年早些时候做空GME的人）可能会感到巨大的痛苦，因为他们的头寸需要以不断上涨的价格进行回补。</blockquote> If I was to place a value on it, I would suggest adjusting price targets by as much as 2X current price if a firm were to see significant interest through WSB - but this is tempered by the expectation that long term, the stock would return to its fundamental value.<blockquote>如果我要对其进行估值，如果一家公司通过WSB看到巨大的兴趣，我会建议将价格目标调整多达当前价格的2倍——但这受到长期该股将回归的预期的影响。其基本价值。</blockquote> If you're holding TSLA shares, it appears the music has stopped over at WSB, and prices may fall back to around $700 in the coming weeks.<blockquote>如果您持有TSLA股票，那么WSB的音乐似乎已经停止，未来几周价格可能会回落至700美元左右。</blockquote> In short, if your holding becomes a 'meme stock', take 2X your money and run - things are about to get volatile.<blockquote>简而言之，如果你持有的股票变成了“模因股票”，拿两倍的钱就跑——事情将会变得不稳定。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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I believe prices will revert back to fundamental value in the long run.<blockquote>这一理论的核心是，供给和需求是推动股票价格的因素（而基本面和感知价值是推动个人投资者买入或卖出的因素），需求可以通过意识和公关努力来操纵。我相信从长远来看，价格将恢复到基本价值。</blockquote> I argue that this awareness effect applies more to retail investors than to more sophisticated investors or investment funds, though this would obviously have a flow-on effect on them.<blockquote>我认为，这种意识效应更多地适用于散户投资者，而不是更老练的投资者或投资基金，尽管这显然会对他们产生流动效应。</blockquote> A more traditional example of this theory is how news and announcements affect share prices, albeit they are more closely tied to fundamental value.<blockquote>这一理论的一个更传统的例子是新闻和公告如何影响股价，尽管它们与基本价值的关系更密切。</blockquote> Subreddit WallStreetBets As A Catalyst<blockquote>Subreddit WallStreetBets作为催化剂</blockquote> The Reddit Community WallStreetBets (WSB) is infamous for its role in the January 2021 GameStop saga, which led to a huge price increase in the retail firm's share price after the Reddit community&nbsp;popularised day trading of the firm.<blockquote>Reddit社区WallStreetBets(WSB)因其在2021年1月游戏驿站事件中所扮演的角色而臭名昭著，在Reddit社区普及该公司的日间交易后，该零售公司的股价大幅上涨。</blockquote> WSB is a community of mostly retail traders, some with no formal investing education or prior experience, and utilising margin loans through trading apps like Robinhood (though more experienced traders are present and active in the subreddit) to invest in the financial markets.<blockquote>WSB主要是一个由散户投资者组成的团体，有些人没有正式的投资教育或经验，并使用诸如Robinhood这样的交易应用程序（尽管有更多经验丰富的交易员在subreddit中活跃）利用保证金贷款投资金融市场。</blockquote> The GameStop saga may be (mostly) over now, but this community is still thriving. At the time of the GameStop saga, the community had less than 3m members, while today it has over 11.2m members.<blockquote>游戏驿站传奇现在可能（大部分）已经结束，但这个社区仍然蓬勃发展。在游戏驿站传奇发生时，该社区的成员不到300万，而今天它的成员超过1120万。</blockquote> Given the almost 4X growth in community size thanks to the amount of attention generated in the GameStop saga, it's arguable that the community is more powerful than ever before in the day trading space.<blockquote>由于游戏驿站传奇引起的关注，社区规模增长了近4倍，可以说社区在日内交易领域比以往任何时候都更加强大。</blockquote> The Elon Musk/WSB Connection<blockquote>埃隆·马斯克/WSB的联系</blockquote> Musk is famously aware of, and following, the WSB subreddit,once tweeting to his 43m followers a link to the subreddit&nbsp;with the caption \"Gamestonk.\"<blockquote>众所周知，马斯克了解并关注WSB subreddit，曾在推特上向他的4300万粉丝发送了该subreddit的链接，标题为“Gamestonk”。</blockquote> Musk has also claimed that short sellers have a negative impact on the valuation of TSLA, and it's not hard to imagine how he might see WSB as a tool to affect the share price.<blockquote>马斯克还声称，卖空者对TSLA的估值有负面影响，不难想象他会如何将WSB视为影响股价的工具。</blockquote> Musk is regarded as a hero by the WSB community, who are very aware that he follows them, and often post memes or comments in a worshipful manner,declaring him a \"Meme Lord.\"<blockquote>马斯克被WSB社区视为英雄，他们非常清楚他在关注他们，经常以崇拜的方式发布模因或评论，宣称他是“模因领主”。</blockquote> Tracking WSB Community Sentiment<blockquote>跟踪WSB社区情绪</blockquote> Thanks to a site called&nbsp;Swaggy Stocks, we are able to track WSB sentiment towards TSLA and count TSLA mentions (and various other firms that get attention on the subreddit, such as the infamous GameStop (GME) short squeeze).<blockquote>多亏了一个名为Swaggy Stocks的网站，我们能够跟踪WSB对TSLA的情绪并统计TSLA的提及次数（以及在subreddit上引起关注的各种其他公司，例如臭名昭著的游戏驿站(GME)空头挤压）。</blockquote> If we take a look at a 1-year history of the TSLA share price vs WSB mentions and sentiment, a cursory glance reveals a general correlation between mentions and upward price activity.<blockquote>如果我们看一下TSLA股价与WSB提及次数和情绪的1年历史，粗略浏览一下就会发现提及次数与价格上涨活动之间存在普遍相关性。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f24f2a63740b288ba4dad63e8fdaed3f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"490\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Swaggy Stocks<blockquote>资料来源：Swaggy股票</blockquote> Another clear trend is the overwhelming positive sentiment towards TSLA (and almost any other stock mentioned there) from the WSB community. Search many of these comments and posts, and you'll see the phrase \"Stonks only go up!\" appear across many, many posts.<blockquote>另一个明显的趋势是WSB社区对TSLA（以及其中提到的几乎所有其他股票）的压倒性积极情绪。搜索许多这样的评论和帖子，你会看到短语“Stonks只会上涨！”出现在很多很多帖子中。</blockquote> Do Other Mediums Have The Same Correlation?<blockquote>其他媒体也有同样的相关性吗？</blockquote> Swaggy Stocks also tracks TSLA mentions across more traditional news sources and other social media sites.<blockquote>Swaggy Stocks还跟踪更传统的新闻来源和其他社交媒体网站上对特斯拉的提及。</blockquote> Searching social media for discussion and due-diligence style posts, Swaggy Stocks is able to show the total number of mentions TSLA generates, to compare with WSB.<blockquote>Swaggy Stocks在社交媒体上搜索讨论和尽职调查风格的帖子，能够显示TSLA产生的提及总数，以便与WSB进行比较。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a1e518a39e21d05f04e11f43de66c6a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"593\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Swaggy Stocks<blockquote>资料来源：Swaggy股票</blockquote> There appears to be a very similar correlation between broader social media mentions of TSLA and stock price activity, but it appears that this attention is reactionary rather than a lead indicator. It is, however, a confirmation of awareness of the stock following along with major price movements, up or down.<blockquote>社交媒体对TSLA的更广泛提及与股价活动之间似乎存在非常相似的相关性，但这种关注似乎是反动的，而不是领先指标。然而，这证实了人们对股票跟随重大价格变动（上涨或下跌）的认识。</blockquote> What Trends Can We See?<blockquote>我们可以看到哪些趋势？</blockquote> Looking at the two graphs of mentions vs stock price, the most prominent trend is how TSLA mentions, and discussion peaks mostly as major price spikes occur. It does not appear that mentions are a leading indicator, but perhaps a slow-down in mentions might indicate that any further major price movements are not to be expected.<blockquote>从提及次数与股价的两张图表来看，最突出的趋势是TSLA的提及方式，讨论大多在价格大幅飙升时达到顶峰。提及次数似乎不是一个领先指标，但提及次数的放缓可能表明预计不会出现任何进一步的重大价格变动。</blockquote> In my eyes, the more interesting time period (circled in red below) is where mentions of TSLA slowed considerably, and the stock price dwindled following the peak in mentions.<blockquote>在我看来，更有趣的时期（下面用红色圈出）是特斯拉的提及量大幅放缓，股价在提及量达到峰值后下跌。</blockquote> I argue that in this instance, when the stock fell from $900 to $600, WSB retail investors attention was diverted from the firm and this halted the upward price movement, sending the stock backward towards it's true long-run fundamental value.<blockquote>我认为，在这种情况下，当股票从900美元跌至600美元时，WSB散户投资者的注意力从该公司转移，这阻止了价格上涨，使股票回到其真正的长期基本价值。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5f5e7c4dafad1ac25fb02d09b089e56\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"490\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Swaggy Stocks<blockquote>资料来源：Swaggy股票</blockquote> Does This Awareness Effect Apply To Other Stocks?<blockquote>这种认知效应是否适用于其他股票？</blockquote> Given GME was the beginning of notoriety for WSB, it's worth comparing the GME ticker to WSB sentiment to search for similar trends.<blockquote>鉴于GME是WSB声名狼藉的开始，因此值得将GME股票与WSB情绪进行比较以寻找类似的趋势。</blockquote> Again, large price movements occur around the same time as WSB commentary spikes, and prices tend to drift lower as attention drifts away.<blockquote>同样，价格大幅波动大约与WSB评论高峰同时发生，随着注意力的转移，价格往往会走低。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bcda7b46bafc07f02eaa854255c64d63\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"679\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Swaggy Stocks<blockquote>资料来源：Swaggy股票</blockquote> Looking at a third firm, Apple (AAPL), to compare WSB activity with the largest market cap firm in the US, the correlation between mentions and price activity is much weaker, suggesting that there may be a limit to the WSB community's influence. While activity still follows price movements, there is also the possibility WSB is just simply not as interested in AAPL as it is in TSLA or GME.<blockquote>以第三家公司苹果(AAPL)为例，将WSB活动与美国市值最大的公司进行比较，提及次数与价格活动之间的相关性要弱得多，这表明WSB社区的影响力可能有限。虽然活动仍然跟随价格变动，但WSB也有可能对AAPL不像对TSLA或GME那样感兴趣。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af3145b857ea22dc2550227f9f93826b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"354\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Swaggy Stocks<blockquote>资料来源：Swaggy股票</blockquote> The Investment View: Results May Vary<blockquote>投资观点：结果可能有所不同</blockquote> I would argue that WSB is not perhaps a leading indicator, but it does play a part in stock awareness and encourages new investors to enter the market.<blockquote>我认为WSB可能不是一个领先指标，但它确实在股票认知度方面发挥了作用，并鼓励新投资者进入市场。</blockquote> I would also argue that 11.2m retail investors is certainly a force to be reckoned with and worth paying attention to - perhaps not a guidance of which stock will boom next but rather which ones are overpriced or have peaked.<blockquote>我还认为，1120万散户投资者无疑是一股不可忽视、值得关注的力量——也许不是哪只股票接下来会繁荣的指引，而是哪些股票定价过高或已经见顶。</blockquote> Overall, there's a strong sense that stocks that receive attention from WSB undergo price volatility, and do drift back to their long-run fundamental value given enough time.<blockquote>总体而言，人们强烈认为，受到WSB关注的股票会经历价格波动，并且在足够的时间内确实会回到其长期基本价值。</blockquote> Perhaps it's a case of, if WSB is promoting the stock, you're already too late.<blockquote>也许是这样的情况，如果WSB正在推广该股票，那么你已经太晚了。</blockquote> So What Does This Mean For TSLA?<blockquote>那么这对特斯拉意味着什么呢？</blockquote> Coming full circle back to TSLA, and reviewing their WSB sentiment chart, I feel there is strong argument to be made that the stock is over-priced due to the presence of retail traders.<blockquote>回到特斯拉，回顾他们的WSB情绪图表，我觉得有强有力的论据表明，由于散户交易者的存在，该股定价过高。</blockquote> However, monitoring WSB activity may give investors a helpful indicator of when TSLA may be about to experience a price correction as retail investor's attention is drawn away from the firm.<blockquote>然而，监控WSB活动可能会为投资者提供一个有用的指标，表明随着散户投资者的注意力从该公司转移，特斯拉何时可能会经历价格调整。</blockquote> With that said, Elon Musk remains a variable worth watching given his awareness of the subreddit and its effect on the market, and he has the platform to drive attention back onto TSLA as he sees fit.<blockquote>话虽如此，鉴于埃隆·马斯克对Reddit子版块的认识及其对市场的影响，他仍然是一个值得关注的变量，而且他有一个平台可以在他认为合适的时候将注意力重新吸引到TSLA上。</blockquote> The Value Of A Mention<blockquote>提及的价值</blockquote> It's hard to place a quantifiable value on what a mention on WSB is worth to a firm, as individually they are probably worth close to $0. But more significant interest could have a life changing short term impact on current shareholders as the value of their portfolio balloons thanks to retail traders taking an interest in one of their holdings.<blockquote>很难量化提及WSB对一家公司的价值，因为它们的价值可能接近0美元。但更大的兴趣可能会对现有股东产生改变生活的短期影响，因为由于散户交易者对其持有的一种股票感兴趣，他们的投资组合价值会膨胀。</blockquote> On the other hand, short sellers (such as those shorting GME earlier this year) could feel substantial pain, as their positions require covering at ever increasing prices.<blockquote>另一方面，卖空者（例如今年早些时候做空GME的人）可能会感到巨大的痛苦，因为他们的头寸需要以不断上涨的价格进行回补。</blockquote> If I was to place a value on it, I would suggest adjusting price targets by as much as 2X current price if a firm were to see significant interest through WSB - but this is tempered by the expectation that long term, the stock would return to its fundamental value.<blockquote>如果我要对其进行估值，如果一家公司通过WSB看到巨大的兴趣，我会建议将价格目标调整多达当前价格的2倍——但这受到长期该股将回归的预期的影响。其基本价值。</blockquote> If you're holding TSLA shares, it appears the music has stopped over at WSB, and prices may fall back to around $700 in the coming weeks.<blockquote>如果您持有TSLA股票，那么WSB的音乐似乎已经停止，未来几周价格可能会回落至700美元左右。</blockquote> In short, if your holding becomes a 'meme stock', take 2X your money and run - things are about to get volatile.<blockquote>简而言之，如果你持有的股票变成了“模因股票”，拿两倍的钱就跑——事情将会变得不稳定。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4471848-tesla-memes-have-peaked-on-wallstreetbets-why-thats-bad-for-the-share-price\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4471848-tesla-memes-have-peaked-on-wallstreetbets-why-thats-bad-for-the-share-price","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120047068","content_text":"Summary\n\nTesla is a Reddit darling, but coverage has peaked, which generally precedes a price fall.\nElon Musk is famously aware of and actively follows the popular subreddit WallStreetBets and may leverage that following to drive the Tesla share price higher.\nWallStreetBets is made up of 11.2m members and growing, mostly retail traders, who are unpredictable in their mob mentality.\n\nRichVintage/E+ via Getty Images\nMeme Stock Mentions As An Indicator\nI have a theory that the only reason Musk's Tesla (TSLA) has achieved the eye watering market capitalisation of $1.141T, with a P/E ratio of 368, is because Elon Musk himself is a master of PR and marketing.\nCore to this theory is that supply and demand is what drives a share's price (whereas fundamental and perceived value is what drives the individual investor to buy or sell), and demand can be manipulated through awareness and PR efforts. I believe prices will revert back to fundamental value in the long run.\nI argue that this awareness effect applies more to retail investors than to more sophisticated investors or investment funds, though this would obviously have a flow-on effect on them.\nA more traditional example of this theory is how news and announcements affect share prices, albeit they are more closely tied to fundamental value.\nSubreddit WallStreetBets As A Catalyst\nThe Reddit Community WallStreetBets (WSB) is infamous for its role in the January 2021 GameStop saga, which led to a huge price increase in the retail firm's share price after the Reddit community popularised day trading of the firm.\nWSB is a community of mostly retail traders, some with no formal investing education or prior experience, and utilising margin loans through trading apps like Robinhood (though more experienced traders are present and active in the subreddit) to invest in the financial markets.\nThe GameStop saga may be (mostly) over now, but this community is still thriving. At the time of the GameStop saga, the community had less than 3m members, while today it has over 11.2m members.\nGiven the almost 4X growth in community size thanks to the amount of attention generated in the GameStop saga, it's arguable that the community is more powerful than ever before in the day trading space.\nThe Elon Musk/WSB Connection\nMusk is famously aware of, and following, the WSB subreddit,once tweeting to his 43m followers a link to the subreddit with the caption \"Gamestonk.\"\nMusk has also claimed that short sellers have a negative impact on the valuation of TSLA, and it's not hard to imagine how he might see WSB as a tool to affect the share price.\nMusk is regarded as a hero by the WSB community, who are very aware that he follows them, and often post memes or comments in a worshipful manner,declaring him a \"Meme Lord.\"\nTracking WSB Community Sentiment\nThanks to a site called Swaggy Stocks, we are able to track WSB sentiment towards TSLA and count TSLA mentions (and various other firms that get attention on the subreddit, such as the infamous GameStop (GME) short squeeze).\nIf we take a look at a 1-year history of the TSLA share price vs WSB mentions and sentiment, a cursory glance reveals a general correlation between mentions and upward price activity.\nSource: Swaggy Stocks\nAnother clear trend is the overwhelming positive sentiment towards TSLA (and almost any other stock mentioned there) from the WSB community. Search many of these comments and posts, and you'll see the phrase \"Stonks only go up!\" appear across many, many posts.\nDo Other Mediums Have The Same Correlation?\nSwaggy Stocks also tracks TSLA mentions across more traditional news sources and other social media sites.\nSearching social media for discussion and due-diligence style posts, Swaggy Stocks is able to show the total number of mentions TSLA generates, to compare with WSB.\nSource: Swaggy Stocks\nThere appears to be a very similar correlation between broader social media mentions of TSLA and stock price activity, but it appears that this attention is reactionary rather than a lead indicator. It is, however, a confirmation of awareness of the stock following along with major price movements, up or down.\nWhat Trends Can We See?\nLooking at the two graphs of mentions vs stock price, the most prominent trend is how TSLA mentions, and discussion peaks mostly as major price spikes occur. It does not appear that mentions are a leading indicator, but perhaps a slow-down in mentions might indicate that any further major price movements are not to be expected.\nIn my eyes, the more interesting time period (circled in red below) is where mentions of TSLA slowed considerably, and the stock price dwindled following the peak in mentions.\nI argue that in this instance, when the stock fell from $900 to $600, WSB retail investors attention was diverted from the firm and this halted the upward price movement, sending the stock backward towards it's true long-run fundamental value.\nSource: Swaggy Stocks\nDoes This Awareness Effect Apply To Other Stocks?\nGiven GME was the beginning of notoriety for WSB, it's worth comparing the GME ticker to WSB sentiment to search for similar trends.\nAgain, large price movements occur around the same time as WSB commentary spikes, and prices tend to drift lower as attention drifts away.\nSource: Swaggy Stocks\nLooking at a third firm, Apple (AAPL), to compare WSB activity with the largest market cap firm in the US, the correlation between mentions and price activity is much weaker, suggesting that there may be a limit to the WSB community's influence. While activity still follows price movements, there is also the possibility WSB is just simply not as interested in AAPL as it is in TSLA or GME.\nSource: Swaggy Stocks\nThe Investment View: Results May Vary\nI would argue that WSB is not perhaps a leading indicator, but it does play a part in stock awareness and encourages new investors to enter the market.\nI would also argue that 11.2m retail investors is certainly a force to be reckoned with and worth paying attention to - perhaps not a guidance of which stock will boom next but rather which ones are overpriced or have peaked.\nOverall, there's a strong sense that stocks that receive attention from WSB undergo price volatility, and do drift back to their long-run fundamental value given enough time.\nPerhaps it's a case of, if WSB is promoting the stock, you're already too late.\nSo What Does This Mean For TSLA?\nComing full circle back to TSLA, and reviewing their WSB sentiment chart, I feel there is strong argument to be made that the stock is over-priced due to the presence of retail traders.\nHowever, monitoring WSB activity may give investors a helpful indicator of when TSLA may be about to experience a price correction as retail investor's attention is drawn away from the firm.\nWith that said, Elon Musk remains a variable worth watching given his awareness of the subreddit and its effect on the market, and he has the platform to drive attention back onto TSLA as he sees fit.\nThe Value Of A Mention\nIt's hard to place a quantifiable value on what a mention on WSB is worth to a firm, as individually they are probably worth close to $0. But more significant interest could have a life changing short term impact on current shareholders as the value of their portfolio balloons thanks to retail traders taking an interest in one of their holdings.\nOn the other hand, short sellers (such as those shorting GME earlier this year) could feel substantial pain, as their positions require covering at ever increasing prices.\nIf I was to place a value on it, I would suggest adjusting price targets by as much as 2X current price if a firm were to see significant interest through WSB - but this is tempered by the expectation that long term, the stock would return to its fundamental value.\nIf you're holding TSLA shares, it appears the music has stopped over at WSB, and prices may fall back to around $700 in the coming weeks.\nIn short, if your holding becomes a 'meme stock', take 2X your money and run - things are about to get volatile.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2497,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}