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2021-11-14

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If inflation is more than transitory, consumer prices and stocks could both keep climbing<blockquote>如果通胀不仅仅是暂时的，消费者价格和股市都可能继续攀升</blockquote>

The stock market is a good inflation hedge Agence France-Presse/Getty Images Conventional wisdom sa

If inflation is more than transitory, consumer prices and stocks could both keep climbing<blockquote>如果通胀不仅仅是暂时的，消费者价格和股市都可能继续攀升</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":873303818,"tweetId":"873303818","gmtCreate":1636853198562,"gmtModify":1636853198706,"author":{"id":3569303342488537,"idStr":"3569303342488537","authorId":3569303342488537,"authorIdStr":"3569303342488537","name":"ColeHii","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":18,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>👍🏻</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>👍🏻</body></html>","text":"👍🏻","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/873303818","repostId":2183043548,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2183043548","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1636852012,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2183043548?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-14 09:06","market":"us","language":"en","title":"If inflation is more than transitory, consumer prices and stocks could both keep climbing<blockquote>如果通胀不仅仅是暂时的，消费者价格和股市都可能继续攀升</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2183043548","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"The stock market is a good inflation hedge\nAgence France-Presse/Getty Images\n\nConventional wisdom sa","content":"The stock market is a good inflation hedge<blockquote>股市是一个很好的通胀对冲工具</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd7f220695081ff57f1ed561e56d2713\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"390\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Agence France-Presse/Getty Images<blockquote>法新社/盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Conventional wisdom says that inflation is bad for the stock market. Yet the U.S. stock market this year has remained strong in the face of unexpectedly high inflation.<blockquote>传统观点认为通货膨胀对股市不利。然而，面对出乎意料的高通胀，今年美国股市仍然保持强劲。</blockquote> Since mid-May, when it was first reported that the CPI’s 12-month rate of change had spiked, the S&amp;P 500&nbsp;has gained more than 15% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index&nbsp;is up almost 23%.<blockquote>自5月中旬首次报道CPI 12个月变化率飙升以来，标普500已上涨超过15%，以科技股为主的纳斯达克100指数上涨近23%。</blockquote> Does that mean the stock market is living on borrowed time, and will soon succumb to the gravitational pull exerted by higher inflation? Or is the conventional wisdom on this subject just wrong?<blockquote>这是否意味着股市正在靠借来的时间生存，并且很快就会屈服于通胀上升带来的引力？或者在这个问题上的传统观点是错误的？</blockquote> Now is a good time to investigate these questions, since the U.S. government reported this week that the CPI over the latest 12 months has risen at its fastest rate in over 30 years.<blockquote>现在是调查这些问题的好时机，因为美国政府本周报告称，过去12个月的CPI以30多年来最快的速度上涨。</blockquote> My analysis of the historical record reveals that the relationship between equities and inflation is far more complex than it initially appears. That’s because there are both plusses and minuses to inflation’s impact, and it’s difficult to predict the net impact of inflation’s various consequences.<blockquote>我对历史记录的分析表明，股票和通胀之间的关系比最初看起来要复杂得多。这是因为通货膨胀的影响既有优点也有缺点，而且很难预测通货膨胀各种后果的净影响。</blockquote> Consider first inflation’s impact on earnings: Because companies often are able to charge higher prices when inflation heats up — they have “pricing power,” in other words — their earnings do not suffer as much as you might think. In fact, according to data back to 1871 provided by Yale University’s Robert Shiller, the S&amp;P 500’s nominal earnings per share have grown faster, on average, when inflation has been higher.<blockquote>首先考虑通货膨胀对盈利的影响：因为当通货膨胀升温时，公司通常能够收取更高的价格——换句话说，他们拥有“定价权”——他们的盈利不会像你想象的那么严重。事实上，根据耶鲁大学Robert Shiller提供的1871年以来的数据，平均而言，当通货膨胀率较高时，标普500的名义每股收益增长更快。</blockquote> This tendency is why the stock market is a good inflation hedge. Yet investors all too often overlook this valuable tendency, since they focus on nominal earnings growth rates rather than real growth rates. They extrapolate the slower nominal earnings growth rate of a low-inflation period even when inflation heats up. Economists often refer to this mistake as “money illusion” or “inflation illusion.”<blockquote>这种倾向就是为什么股票市场是一个很好的通胀对冲工具。然而，投资者常常忽视这一有价值的趋势，因为他们关注的是名义盈利增长率而不是实际增长率。他们推断，即使通胀升温，低通胀时期的名义盈利增长率也会较慢。经济学家常将这种错误称为“货币错觉”或“通胀错觉”。</blockquote> Corporate earnings’ ability to hedge inflation is the good news. The bad news is that inflation causes P/E ratios to decline, since inflation reduces the discounted value of future years’ earnings.<blockquote>企业盈利对冲通胀的能力是个好消息。坏消息是通货膨胀会导致市盈率下降，因为通货膨胀会降低未来几年收益的贴现值。</blockquote> These two distinct impacts are summarized in the chart below. To construct the chart, I segregated the period since 1871 into two subsets according to the CPI’s trailing 2-year rate of change. Notice that the EPS growth rate has tended to be higher when inflation is higher, but the P/E ratio has tended to be lower.<blockquote>下图总结了这两种不同的影响。为了构建图表，我根据CPI过去两年的变化率将1871年以来的时期分为两个子集。请注意，当通胀较高时，每股收益增长率往往较高，但市盈率往往较低。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/370baeb3b581e82486aa533711b4363e\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"482\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> What to watch for — and watch out for<blockquote>要注意什么——以及要注意什么</blockquote> How do these countervailing factors interact in practice? The answer depends on whether you focus on the near-term or the long-term. Over the near-term — up to a year, or so — inflation historically has been a net negative for stocks. That’s because inflation’s negative impact on the P/E ratio is immediate, while its positive impact on earnings doesn’t kick in for a couple of years. Once your time horizon extends two or three years, these effects on average cancel each other out.<blockquote>这些抵消因素在实践中是如何相互作用的？答案取决于你关注的是近期还是长期。从历史上看，在短期内（长达一年左右），通胀对股市来说一直是净负面影响。这是因为通货膨胀对市盈率的负面影响是立竿见影的，而对盈利的积极影响在几年内不会显现。一旦你的时间范围延长了两三年，这些影响平均会相互抵消。</blockquote> The investment implication: If inflation proves to be more than transitory and the stock market declines significantly, you might want to treat the selloff as a buying opportunity.<blockquote>投资含义：如果通货膨胀被证明不仅仅是暂时的，并且股市大幅下跌，您可能需要将抛售视为买入机会。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>If inflation is more than transitory, consumer prices and stocks could both keep climbing<blockquote>如果通胀不仅仅是暂时的，消费者价格和股市都可能继续攀升</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIf inflation is more than transitory, consumer prices and stocks could both keep climbing<blockquote>如果通胀不仅仅是暂时的，消费者价格和股市都可能继续攀升</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-11-14 09:06\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe stock market is a good inflation hedge<blockquote>股市是一个很好的通胀对冲工具</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd7f220695081ff57f1ed561e56d2713\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"390\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Agence France-Presse/Getty Images<blockquote>法新社/盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Conventional wisdom says that inflation is bad for the stock market. Yet the U.S. stock market this year has remained strong in the face of unexpectedly high inflation.<blockquote>传统观点认为通货膨胀对股市不利。然而，面对出乎意料的高通胀，今年美国股市仍然保持强劲。</blockquote> Since mid-May, when it was first reported that the CPI’s 12-month rate of change had spiked, the S&amp;P 500&nbsp;has gained more than 15% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index&nbsp;is up almost 23%.<blockquote>自5月中旬首次报道CPI 12个月变化率飙升以来，标普500已上涨超过15%，以科技股为主的纳斯达克100指数上涨近23%。</blockquote> Does that mean the stock market is living on borrowed time, and will soon succumb to the gravitational pull exerted by higher inflation? Or is the conventional wisdom on this subject just wrong?<blockquote>这是否意味着股市正在靠借来的时间生存，并且很快就会屈服于通胀上升带来的引力？或者在这个问题上的传统观点是错误的？</blockquote> Now is a good time to investigate these questions, since the U.S. government reported this week that the CPI over the latest 12 months has risen at its fastest rate in over 30 years.<blockquote>现在是调查这些问题的好时机，因为美国政府本周报告称，过去12个月的CPI以30多年来最快的速度上涨。</blockquote> My analysis of the historical record reveals that the relationship between equities and inflation is far more complex than it initially appears. That’s because there are both plusses and minuses to inflation’s impact, and it’s difficult to predict the net impact of inflation’s various consequences.<blockquote>我对历史记录的分析表明，股票和通胀之间的关系比最初看起来要复杂得多。这是因为通货膨胀的影响既有优点也有缺点，而且很难预测通货膨胀各种后果的净影响。</blockquote> Consider first inflation’s impact on earnings: Because companies often are able to charge higher prices when inflation heats up — they have “pricing power,” in other words — their earnings do not suffer as much as you might think. In fact, according to data back to 1871 provided by Yale University’s Robert Shiller, the S&amp;P 500’s nominal earnings per share have grown faster, on average, when inflation has been higher.<blockquote>首先考虑通货膨胀对盈利的影响：因为当通货膨胀升温时，公司通常能够收取更高的价格——换句话说，他们拥有“定价权”——他们的盈利不会像你想象的那么严重。事实上，根据耶鲁大学Robert Shiller提供的1871年以来的数据，平均而言，当通货膨胀率较高时，标普500的名义每股收益增长更快。</blockquote> This tendency is why the stock market is a good inflation hedge. Yet investors all too often overlook this valuable tendency, since they focus on nominal earnings growth rates rather than real growth rates. They extrapolate the slower nominal earnings growth rate of a low-inflation period even when inflation heats up. Economists often refer to this mistake as “money illusion” or “inflation illusion.”<blockquote>这种倾向就是为什么股票市场是一个很好的通胀对冲工具。然而，投资者常常忽视这一有价值的趋势，因为他们关注的是名义盈利增长率而不是实际增长率。他们推断，即使通胀升温，低通胀时期的名义盈利增长率也会较慢。经济学家常将这种错误称为“货币错觉”或“通胀错觉”。</blockquote> Corporate earnings’ ability to hedge inflation is the good news. The bad news is that inflation causes P/E ratios to decline, since inflation reduces the discounted value of future years’ earnings.<blockquote>企业盈利对冲通胀的能力是个好消息。坏消息是通货膨胀会导致市盈率下降，因为通货膨胀会降低未来几年收益的贴现值。</blockquote> These two distinct impacts are summarized in the chart below. To construct the chart, I segregated the period since 1871 into two subsets according to the CPI’s trailing 2-year rate of change. Notice that the EPS growth rate has tended to be higher when inflation is higher, but the P/E ratio has tended to be lower.<blockquote>下图总结了这两种不同的影响。为了构建图表，我根据CPI过去两年的变化率将1871年以来的时期分为两个子集。请注意，当通胀较高时，每股收益增长率往往较高，但市盈率往往较低。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/370baeb3b581e82486aa533711b4363e\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"482\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> What to watch for — and watch out for<blockquote>要注意什么——以及要注意什么</blockquote> How do these countervailing factors interact in practice? The answer depends on whether you focus on the near-term or the long-term. Over the near-term — up to a year, or so — inflation historically has been a net negative for stocks. That’s because inflation’s negative impact on the P/E ratio is immediate, while its positive impact on earnings doesn’t kick in for a couple of years. Once your time horizon extends two or three years, these effects on average cancel each other out.<blockquote>这些抵消因素在实践中是如何相互作用的？答案取决于你关注的是近期还是长期。从历史上看，在短期内（长达一年左右），通胀对股市来说一直是净负面影响。这是因为通货膨胀对市盈率的负面影响是立竿见影的，而对盈利的积极影响在几年内不会显现。一旦你的时间范围延长了两三年，这些影响平均会相互抵消。</blockquote> The investment implication: If inflation proves to be more than transitory and the stock market declines significantly, you might want to treat the selloff as a buying opportunity.<blockquote>投资含义：如果通货膨胀被证明不仅仅是暂时的，并且股市大幅下跌，您可能需要将抛售视为买入机会。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/inflation-is-boosting-prices-and-stocks-heres-why-that-isnt-a-surprise-11636672378?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","NDX":"纳斯达克100指数",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/inflation-is-boosting-prices-and-stocks-heres-why-that-isnt-a-surprise-11636672378?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2183043548","content_text":"The stock market is a good inflation hedge\nAgence France-Presse/Getty Images\n\nConventional wisdom says that inflation is bad for the stock market. Yet the U.S. stock market this year has remained strong in the face of unexpectedly high inflation.\nSince mid-May, when it was first reported that the CPI’s 12-month rate of change had spiked, the S&P 500 has gained more than 15% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index is up almost 23%.\nDoes that mean the stock market is living on borrowed time, and will soon succumb to the gravitational pull exerted by higher inflation? Or is the conventional wisdom on this subject just wrong?\nNow is a good time to investigate these questions, since the U.S. government reported this week that the CPI over the latest 12 months has risen at its fastest rate in over 30 years.\nMy analysis of the historical record reveals that the relationship between equities and inflation is far more complex than it initially appears. That’s because there are both plusses and minuses to inflation’s impact, and it’s difficult to predict the net impact of inflation’s various consequences.\nConsider first inflation’s impact on earnings: Because companies often are able to charge higher prices when inflation heats up — they have “pricing power,” in other words — their earnings do not suffer as much as you might think. In fact, according to data back to 1871 provided by Yale University’s Robert Shiller, the S&P 500’s nominal earnings per share have grown faster, on average, when inflation has been higher.\nThis tendency is why the stock market is a good inflation hedge. Yet investors all too often overlook this valuable tendency, since they focus on nominal earnings growth rates rather than real growth rates. They extrapolate the slower nominal earnings growth rate of a low-inflation period even when inflation heats up. Economists often refer to this mistake as “money illusion” or “inflation illusion.”\nCorporate earnings’ ability to hedge inflation is the good news. The bad news is that inflation causes P/E ratios to decline, since inflation reduces the discounted value of future years’ earnings.\nThese two distinct impacts are summarized in the chart below. To construct the chart, I segregated the period since 1871 into two subsets according to the CPI’s trailing 2-year rate of change. Notice that the EPS growth rate has tended to be higher when inflation is higher, but the P/E ratio has tended to be lower.\n\nWhat to watch for — and watch out for\n\nHow do these countervailing factors interact in practice? The answer depends on whether you focus on the near-term or the long-term. Over the near-term — up to a year, or so — inflation historically has been a net negative for stocks. That’s because inflation’s negative impact on the P/E ratio is immediate, while its positive impact on earnings doesn’t kick in for a couple of years. Once your time horizon extends two or three years, these effects on average cancel each other out.\nThe investment implication: If inflation proves to be more than transitory and the stock market declines significantly, you might want to treat the selloff as a buying opportunity.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"NDX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2246,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}

If inflation is more than transitory, consumer prices and stocks could both keep climbing<blockquote>如果通胀不仅仅是暂时的，消费者价格和股市都可能继续攀升</blockquote>

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