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2021-10-01

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Professor who called Dow 20,000 says he’s nervous about trends in inflation that could spark a stock-market correction<blockquote>道琼斯指数为 20,000 点的教授表示，他对可能引发股市调整的通胀趋势感到紧张</blockquote>

Jeremy Siegel, professor of finance at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School of Business,

Professor who called Dow 20,000 says he’s nervous about trends in inflation that could spark a stock-market correction<blockquote>道琼斯指数为 20,000 点的教授表示，他对可能引发股市调整的通胀趋势感到紧张</blockquote>

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That is the fastest increase in 30 years. Inflation is running even hotter based on the better-known consumer-price index, a measure of the average prices paid by consumers for a common basket of goods and services that serves as a barometer of economic health.<blockquote>使用美联储首选个人消费支出价格指数，美国通货膨胀率在截至 7 月份的 12 个月中以 4.2% 的速度上涨。这是30年来最快的增长。根据更广为人知的消费者价格指数，通货膨胀甚至更高，该指数衡量消费者为一篮子普通商品和服务支付的平均价格，是经济健康状况的晴雨表。</blockquote> Powell and others at the Fed have contended for months that the surge in inflation was “transitory.”<blockquote>鲍威尔和美联储的其他人几个月来一直认为通胀飙升是 “暂时的”。</blockquote> However, that view is starting to shift and investors are starting to factor in more persistent inflation than previously thought,analysts say.<blockquote>然而，分析师表示，这种观点正在开始转变，投资者开始考虑比之前想象的更持久的通胀。</blockquote> Siegel said the anticipated timeline that the Fed will start tapering in November and end it the middle of 2022, with an eye toward starting to raise interest rates sometime next year, is a fair timetable, but he but fears that the surge in inflation could hasten moves, which would drive yields higher and stocks lower.<blockquote>西格尔表示，预计美联储将于 11 月开始缩减规模，并于 2022 年中期结束缩减规模，并着眼于明年某个时候开始加息，这是一个公平的时间表，但他担心通胀飙升可能会加速行动，这将推高收益率，降低股市。</blockquote> On Wednesday, the S&amp;P 500 indexSPX,-1.19%ended higher but was still down 3.9% from its Sept. 2 record close, and the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-1.59%was off 3.5% from its Aug. 16 record high, following marginal gains on the session. The technology-laden Nasdaq Composite IndexCOMP,-0.44%is down 5.6% from its Sept. 7 closing peak after finishing lower on Wednesday.<blockquote>周三，标普500指数SPX,-1.19%收高，但仍较9月2日创纪录收盘价下跌3.9%，道琼斯工业平均指数JIA,-1.59%较8月16日创纪录高点下跌3.5%，盘中小幅上涨。科技股充足的纳斯达克综合指数COMP,-0.44%在周三收低后，较9月7日收盘峰值下跌5.6%。</blockquote> A correction in an asset is usually defined by market technicians as a fall of at least 10%, but no more than 20%, from a recent peak.<blockquote>市场技术人员通常将资产调整定义为较近期峰值下跌至少 10%，但不超过 20%。</blockquote> Meanwhile, the benchmark 10-year Treasury noteTMUBMUSD10Y,1.504%,used to price everything from car loans to mortgages, yielded 1.54%, up from 1.534% on Tuesday. The note is up nearly 10 basis points so far this quarter and up 23.7 basis points in September alone, according data compiled by Dow Jones Market Data.<blockquote>与此同时，基准 10 年期国债 TETMUBMUSD10Y（1.504%）的收益率为 1.54%，高于周二的 1.534%，该收益率为 1.54%。根据道琼斯市场数据汇编的数据，本季度迄今为止，该票据已上涨近 10 个基点，仅 9 月份就上涨了 23.7 个基点。</blockquote>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Professor who called Dow 20,000 says he’s nervous about trends in inflation that could spark a stock-market correction<blockquote>道琼斯指数为 20,000 点的教授表示，他对可能引发股市调整的通胀趋势感到紧张</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nProfessor who called Dow 20,000 says he’s nervous about trends in inflation that could spark a stock-market correction<blockquote>道琼斯指数为 20,000 点的教授表示，他对可能引发股市调整的通胀趋势感到紧张</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-10-01 08:27\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nJeremy Siegel, professor of finance at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School of Business, on Wednesday said that a fresh surge in inflation is making him nervous and warned that accelerating pricing pressures could compel the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at a faster clip than currently anticipated, which could deliver a correction to equity benchmarks.<blockquote>宾夕法尼亚大学沃顿商学院金融学教授杰里米-西格尔（Jeremy Siegel）周三表示，通胀的新一轮飙升让他感到紧张，并警告说，加速的定价压力可能会迫使美联储以比目前预期更快的速度加息，这可能会对股市基准进行调整。</blockquote> The Wharton professorcredited with calling Dow 20,000&nbsp;in 2015 told CNBC during a Wednesday interview that he is “nervous about the trends I see in inflation currently.”<blockquote>这位沃顿商学院教授在 2015 年将道琼斯指数预测为 20,000 点，他在周三接受 CNBC 采访时表示，他 “对我目前看到的通胀趋势感到紧张”。</blockquote> The academic’s comments came as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Wednesday said a bout of high U.S. inflation could be prolonged into early next year because parts and material shortages might be getting worse.<blockquote>这位学者发表上述言论之际，美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）周三表示，美国一轮高通胀可能会持续到明年初，因为零部件和材料短缺可能会变得更糟。</blockquote> Parts of the financial market are undergoing big price surges, including natural-gas futuresNG00,+1.81%,whichsurged 11% on Monday,reaching levels not seen since 2014 amid tight U.S. supplies and strengthening demand across the globe.<blockquote>部分金融市场正在经历大幅价格飙升，包括天然气期货NG00,+1.81%，周一飙升11%，在美国供应紧张和全球需求走强的情况下，达到2014年以来的最高水平。</blockquote> Read:Inflation in the U.S. is running at the highest level in 30 years<blockquote>阅读：美国通货膨胀率处于30年来的最高水平</blockquote> Also:Fed’s Williams predicts the high rate of inflation will cool to 2% in 2022<blockquote>所以：美联储威廉姆斯预测2022年高通胀率将降至2%</blockquote> “It’s frustrating to see the supply-chain problems not getting better, in fact they are probably getting worse,” Powell said during a virtual forum with other central bank leaders, including those from the European Central Bank. “It’s very difficult to say how big the effects will be in the meantime and how long they will last.”<blockquote>“鲍威尔在与包括欧洲央行在内的其他央行领导人举行的虚拟论坛上说：”看到供应链问题没有好转，事实上它们可能正在恶化，这令人沮丧。“在此期间，很难说影响会有多大，会持续多久。”</blockquote> The rate of inflation in the U.S., using the Fed’s preferred personal-consumption expenditures price index, rose at a 4.2% pace in the 12 months ended in July. That is the fastest increase in 30 years. Inflation is running even hotter based on the better-known consumer-price index, a measure of the average prices paid by consumers for a common basket of goods and services that serves as a barometer of economic health.<blockquote>使用美联储首选个人消费支出价格指数，美国通货膨胀率在截至 7 月份的 12 个月中以 4.2% 的速度上涨。这是30年来最快的增长。根据更广为人知的消费者价格指数，通货膨胀甚至更高，该指数衡量消费者为一篮子普通商品和服务支付的平均价格，是经济健康状况的晴雨表。</blockquote> Powell and others at the Fed have contended for months that the surge in inflation was “transitory.”<blockquote>鲍威尔和美联储的其他人几个月来一直认为通胀飙升是 “暂时的”。</blockquote> However, that view is starting to shift and investors are starting to factor in more persistent inflation than previously thought,analysts say.<blockquote>然而，分析师表示，这种观点正在开始转变，投资者开始考虑比之前想象的更持久的通胀。</blockquote> Siegel said the anticipated timeline that the Fed will start tapering in November and end it the middle of 2022, with an eye toward starting to raise interest rates sometime next year, is a fair timetable, but he but fears that the surge in inflation could hasten moves, which would drive yields higher and stocks lower.<blockquote>西格尔表示，预计美联储将于 11 月开始缩减规模，并于 2022 年中期结束缩减规模，并着眼于明年某个时候开始加息，这是一个公平的时间表，但他担心通胀飙升可能会加速行动，这将推高收益率，降低股市。</blockquote> On Wednesday, the S&amp;P 500 indexSPX,-1.19%ended higher but was still down 3.9% from its Sept. 2 record close, and the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-1.59%was off 3.5% from its Aug. 16 record high, following marginal gains on the session. The technology-laden Nasdaq Composite IndexCOMP,-0.44%is down 5.6% from its Sept. 7 closing peak after finishing lower on Wednesday.<blockquote>周三，标普500指数SPX,-1.19%收高，但仍较9月2日创纪录收盘价下跌3.9%，道琼斯工业平均指数JIA,-1.59%较8月16日创纪录高点下跌3.5%，盘中小幅上涨。科技股充足的纳斯达克综合指数COMP,-0.44%在周三收低后，较9月7日收盘峰值下跌5.6%。</blockquote> A correction in an asset is usually defined by market technicians as a fall of at least 10%, but no more than 20%, from a recent peak.<blockquote>市场技术人员通常将资产调整定义为较近期峰值下跌至少 10%，但不超过 20%。</blockquote> Meanwhile, the benchmark 10-year Treasury noteTMUBMUSD10Y,1.504%,used to price everything from car loans to mortgages, yielded 1.54%, up from 1.534% on Tuesday. The note is up nearly 10 basis points so far this quarter and up 23.7 basis points in September alone, according data compiled by Dow Jones Market Data.<blockquote>与此同时，基准 10 年期国债 TETMUBMUSD10Y（1.504%）的收益率为 1.54%，高于周二的 1.534%，该收益率为 1.54%。根据道琼斯市场数据汇编的数据，本季度迄今为止，该票据已上涨近 10 个基点，仅 9 月份就上涨了 23.7 个基点。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/professor-who-called-dow-20-000-says-hes-nervous-about-trends-in-inflation-that-could-spark-a-stock-market-correction-11632949212?siteid=yhoof2\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/professor-who-called-dow-20-000-says-hes-nervous-about-trends-in-inflation-that-could-spark-a-stock-market-correction-11632949212?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1124647688","content_text":"Jeremy Siegel, professor of finance at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School of Business, on Wednesday said that a fresh surge in inflation is making him nervous and warned that accelerating pricing pressures could compel the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at a faster clip than currently anticipated, which could deliver a correction to equity benchmarks.\nThe Wharton professorcredited with calling Dow 20,000 in 2015 told CNBC during a Wednesday interview that he is “nervous about the trends I see in inflation currently.”\nThe academic’s comments came as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Wednesday said a bout of high U.S. inflation could be prolonged into early next year because parts and material shortages might be getting worse.\nParts of the financial market are undergoing big price surges, including natural-gas futuresNG00,+1.81%,whichsurged 11% on Monday,reaching levels not seen since 2014 amid tight U.S. supplies and strengthening demand across the globe.\nRead:Inflation in the U.S. is running at the highest level in 30 years\nAlso:Fed’s Williams predicts the high rate of inflation will cool to 2% in 2022\n“It’s frustrating to see the supply-chain problems not getting better, in fact they are probably getting worse,” Powell said during a virtual forum with other central bank leaders, including those from the European Central Bank. “It’s very difficult to say how big the effects will be in the meantime and how long they will last.”\nThe rate of inflation in the U.S., using the Fed’s preferred personal-consumption expenditures price index, rose at a 4.2% pace in the 12 months ended in July. That is the fastest increase in 30 years. Inflation is running even hotter based on the better-known consumer-price index, a measure of the average prices paid by consumers for a common basket of goods and services that serves as a barometer of economic health.\nPowell and others at the Fed have contended for months that the surge in inflation was “transitory.”\nHowever, that view is starting to shift and investors are starting to factor in more persistent inflation than previously thought,analysts say.\nSiegel said the anticipated timeline that the Fed will start tapering in November and end it the middle of 2022, with an eye toward starting to raise interest rates sometime next year, is a fair timetable, but he but fears that the surge in inflation could hasten moves, which would drive yields higher and stocks lower.\nOn Wednesday, the S&P 500 indexSPX,-1.19%ended higher but was still down 3.9% from its Sept. 2 record close, and the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-1.59%was off 3.5% from its Aug. 16 record high, following marginal gains on the session. The technology-laden Nasdaq Composite IndexCOMP,-0.44%is down 5.6% from its Sept. 7 closing peak after finishing lower on Wednesday.\nA correction in an asset is usually defined by market technicians as a fall of at least 10%, but no more than 20%, from a recent peak.\nMeanwhile, the benchmark 10-year Treasury noteTMUBMUSD10Y,1.504%,used to price everything from car loans to mortgages, yielded 1.54%, up from 1.534% on Tuesday. The note is up nearly 10 basis points so far this quarter and up 23.7 basis points in September alone, according data compiled by Dow Jones Market Data.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2529,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}

Professor who called Dow 20,000 says he’s nervous about trends in inflation that could spark a stock-market correction<blockquote>道琼斯指数为 20,000 点的教授表示，他对可能引发股市调整的通胀趋势感到紧张</blockquote>

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