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2021-10-21

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3 Biotech Stocks That Are Ridiculously Overpriced<blockquote>3只定价过高的生物科技股</blockquote>

Beauty is in the eye of the beholder -- and, in many cases, so is the appropriate valuation of a sto

3 Biotech Stocks That Are Ridiculously Overpriced<blockquote>3只定价过高的生物科技股</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":853976367,"tweetId":"853976367","gmtCreate":1634771141629,"gmtModify":1634771142737,"author":{"id":3582963095283492,"idStr":"3582963095283492","authorId":3582963095283492,"authorIdStr":"3582963095283492","name":"replaygoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d47b21291424a3d55039334a8de5cdb9","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":60,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>okok</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>okok</body></html>","text":"okok","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/853976367","repostId":1151911991,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1151911991","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1634728904,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1151911991?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-20 19:21","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Biotech Stocks That Are Ridiculously Overpriced<blockquote>3只定价过高的生物科技股</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151911991","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Beauty is in the eye of the beholder -- and, in many cases, so is the appropriate valuation of a sto","content":"Beauty is in the eye of the beholder -- and, in many cases, so is the appropriate valuation of a stock. One investor might view a stock as overvalued, while another investor sees it as relatively well priced.<blockquote>情人眼里出西施——在许多情况下，股票的适当估值也是如此。一位投资者可能认为一只股票被高估，而另一位投资者则认为它的定价相对合理。</blockquote> We asked three Motley Fool contributors which biotech stocks they think are ridiculously overpriced right now. Here's why they picked&nbsp;Cassava Sciences(NASDAQ:SAVA),Ocugen(NASDAQ:OCGN), and&nbsp;Moderna(NASDAQ:MRNA).<blockquote>我们询问了三位Motley Fool撰稿人，他们认为哪些生物技术股票目前定价过高。这就是他们选择的原因木薯科学（纳斯达克：萨瓦），奥库根（纳斯达克：OCGN），以及现代（纳斯达克：MRNA）。</blockquote> This biotech isn't worth the trouble<blockquote>这种生物技术不值得这么麻烦</blockquote> Prosper Junior Bakiny(Cassava Sciences):Investors have been flocking to this clinical-stage biotech all year long, pushing its share price up by well over 600%. It's still barely into the realm of mid-cap status, though, with a market cap of roughly $2 billion as of this writing.<blockquote>Prosper Junior Bakiny（木薯科学）：投资者全年都在涌向这家处于临床阶段的生物技术公司，推动其股价上涨了600%以上。不过，截至撰写本文时，该公司的市值约为20亿美元，仍勉强进入中型股领域。</blockquote> Cassava Sciences is hardly worth that much, though.<blockquote>不过，木薯科学公司并不值那么多钱。</blockquote> It's is currently developing Simufilam for the treatment of Alzheimer's disease. Positive results from a pair of clinical trials -- coupled with the&nbsp;controversial approval&nbsp;of&nbsp;Biogen's Aduhelm earlier this year -- have helped the company's stock perform as well as it has this year.<blockquote>该公司目前正在开发用于治疗阿尔茨海默病的Simufilam。两项临床试验的积极结果——加上有争议的批准Biogen今年早些时候的Aduhelm帮助该公司的股票表现出色。</blockquote> But there are some reasons to worry. First, many companies have tried to develop effective drugs directed at the underlying causes of Alzheimer's disease. Nearly all of them failed, even after successful phase 2 studies.<blockquote>但也有一些值得担心的理由。首先，许多公司试图开发针对阿尔茨海默病潜在原因的有效药物。即使在成功的二期研究之后，几乎所有的研究都失败了。</blockquote> Even the data from Biogen's pivotal trial for Aduhelm wasn't that convincing. That's why the Food and Drug Administration is insisting on a post-approval confirmatory study for the medicine. It could be taken off the market if it fails to prove that actually helps Alzheimer's patients.<blockquote>即使是百健(Biogen)对Aduhelm的关键试验的数据也不那么令人信服。这就是为什么食品和药物管理局坚持对该药物进行批准后验证性研究。如果它不能证明它实际上对阿尔茨海默氏症患者有帮助，它可能会被下架。</blockquote> Of course, just because others failed to develop an effective treatment for this condition doesn't mean Cassava Sciences will too. The point is, investors should view even the positive results Simufilam has produced so far with a healthy dose of skepticism.<blockquote>当然，仅仅因为其他人未能开发出针对这种情况的有效治疗方法并不意味着木薯科学公司也会这样做。关键是，即使是Simufilam迄今为止取得的积极成果，投资者也应该以适度的怀疑态度看待。</blockquote> Results from a 12-month open-label study of Simufilam&nbsp;weren't that impressive. Then there is the citizen petition that New York-based law firm Labaton Sucharow filed with the FDA requesting that the agency halt clinical trials featuring Simufilam.&nbsp;Labaton Sucharow is representing clients with short positions in the stock, so there are some financial incentives for it to target Cassava. Still, this dark cloud will continue to hover above the biotech for a while.<blockquote>一项为期12个月的Simufilam开放标签研究的结果并不那么令人印象深刻。然后是总部位于纽约的律师事务所Labaton Sucharow向FDA提交的公民请愿书，要求该机构停止以Simufilam为特色的临床试验。Labaton Sucharow代表持有股票空头头寸的客户，因此它瞄准木薯有一些财务激励。尽管如此，这片乌云仍将在生物技术上空盘旋一段时间。</blockquote> Add these to the other headwinds that Cassava Sciences could run into, including the very real possibility that Simufilam will fail miserably in its phase 3 clinical trials or that it will encounter regulatory setbacks, and this biotech stock looks far too risky to invest in, even at current levels.<blockquote>再加上Cassava Sciences可能遇到的其他阻力，包括Simufilam在3期临床试验中惨败或遭遇监管挫折的可能性非常真实，即使在目前的水平上。</blockquote> Ocugen is too risky to take a chance on<blockquote>Ocugen风险太大，不能冒险</blockquote> David Jagielski(Ocugen):This company became popular among retail investors this year based on the hopes that it will be the next COVID-19 vaccine stock to make it big. There's just one problem: Ocugen's success in that regard will hinge on the approval of Covaxin, which it's co-developing with Indian biotech company Bharat Biotech.<blockquote>David Jagielski（Ocugen）：这家公司今年受到散户投资者的欢迎，因为人们希望它将成为下一只做大的COVID-19疫苗股。只有一个问题：Ocugen在这方面的成功将取决于科瓦克辛的批准，该公司正在与印度生物技术公司Bharat Biotech共同开发该产品。</blockquote> Ocugen announced in June that it would pursue a Biologics License Application for its COVID-19 vaccine candidate in the U.S., based on a recommendation from the Food and Drug Administration. That involves a longer process than getting an Emergency Use Authorization, and implies that the agency may have been unwilling to grant emergency approval for the vaccine.<blockquote>Ocugen在6月份宣布，根据美国食品药品监督管理局的建议，它将在美国为其新冠肺炎候选疫苗申请生物制品许可证。这涉及比获得紧急使用授权更长的过程，并意味着该机构可能不愿意授予该疫苗的紧急批准。</blockquote> There was more positive news last week when&nbsp;India granted Emergency Use Authorization for Covaxinto be used to inoculate children ages 2 to 18. Unfortunately, that doesn't mean anything for Ocugen -- it only shares in the profits that the vaccine makes in Canada and the U.S.<blockquote>上周有更多积极消息，印度授予Covaxinto紧急使用授权，用于为2至18岁的儿童接种疫苗。不幸的是，这对Ocugen来说并不意味着什么——它只分享疫苗在加拿大和美国的利润。</blockquote> But even though that good news out of India will have no notable impact on Ocugen's business, its stock price jumped anyway, topping the $10 mark for the first time in months. The performance of the company and the stock have simply not been connected. Through the first six months of this year, Ocugen has reported&nbsp;no revenue. Yet its shares have risen by more than 350% year to date.<blockquote>但尽管来自印度的好消息不会对Ocugen的业务产生明显影响，但其股价仍大幅上涨，数月来首次突破10美元大关。公司的业绩和股票根本没有联系。今年前六个月，Ocugen报告无收入然而，其股价今年迄今已上涨超过350%。</blockquote> The good news is that there is still hope for the business beyond just its COVID-19 vaccine. The company is moving forward on its gene-therapy treatment, OCU400, and it plans to begin clinical studies on it later this year. However, the human trials phase of OCU400's development, even if it's ultimately successful, will take years.<blockquote>好消息是，除了COVID-19疫苗之外，该业务仍有希望。该公司正在推进其基因疗法OCU400，并计划在今年晚些时候开始临床研究。然而，OCU400开发的人体试验阶段，即使最终成功，也需要数年时间。</blockquote> Given its market cap of $1.6 billion, I think that investors are taking on a ton of risk by buying shares of Ocugen. My view is that this is akin to gambling onpenny stocks, except in those cases, at least, valuations can be incredibly low. In Ocugen's case, the stock may have limited upside.<blockquote>鉴于其16亿美元的市值，我认为投资者购买Ocugen股票是在承担很大的风险。我的观点是，这类似于押注细价股，除非在这些情况下，至少估值可能低得令人难以置信。就Ocugen而言，该股的上涨空间可能有限。</blockquote> A great company that's just too expensive<blockquote>一家伟大的公司，但价格太贵了</blockquote> Keith Speights(Moderna): Most of the critiques that Prosper and David had for Cassava and Ocugen don't apply to Moderna at all. The company already has a huge blockbuster on the market with its COVID-19 vaccine. It's rolling in profits as sales for the vaccine continue to soar.<blockquote>基思·斯贝茨（现代）：Prosper和David对Cassava和Ocugen的大多数批评根本不适用于Moderna。该公司的COVID-19疫苗已经在市场上取得了巨大的成功。随着疫苗销量持续飙升，该公司的利润不断增加。</blockquote> Moderna even has a promising pipeline. It hopes to soon advance cytomegalovirus (CMV) vaccine candidate mRNA-1647 into late-stage testing. The company is evaluating an experimental flu vaccine in early-stage testing and hopes to develop a combination COVID-19/flu vaccine. In total, the company has 17 clinical-stage programs.<blockquote>Moderna甚至有一个很有前途的管道。它希望很快将巨细胞病毒(CMV)候选疫苗mRNA-1647推进到后期测试。该公司正在早期测试中评估一种实验性流感疫苗，并希望开发一种新冠肺炎/流感联合疫苗。该公司总共有17个临床阶段项目。</blockquote> I think that Moderna's messenger RNA (mRNA) platform could produce many blockbuster vaccines and therapies over the coming decades. My view is that it's a great company. However, I also think that its shares are just too expensive now.<blockquote>我认为Moderna的信使RNA(mRNA)平台可以在未来几十年内生产出许多重磅疫苗和疗法。我的观点是这是一家伟大的公司。不过，我也认为它的股票现在太贵了。</blockquote> Some might point to Moderna's forward price-to-earnings multiple of 11.2 as evidence that I'm dead wrong about the stock being overvalued. However, the problem with this metric is that it only looks one year into the future. Moderna's CEO has&nbsp;predicted that the pandemic could effectively end by late 2022. If he's right, I suspect that the company's revenue and earnings could fall off significantly after that.<blockquote>有些人可能会指出Moderna 11.2的预期市盈率证明我对该股被高估的看法大错特错。然而，这个指标的问题在于它只着眼于未来一年。Moderna首席执行官预测，疫情可能会在2022年底有效结束。如果他是对的，我怀疑此后该公司的收入和盈利可能会大幅下降。</blockquote> Remember that Moderna's enormous success so far has resulted from a two-dose initial regimen of its COVID-19 vaccine. Boosters of that vaccine will only require one shot. More importantly, there's uncertainty about how frequently boosters will be needed. Governments around the world could also become more price-conscious about what they'll pay for COVID-19 vaccines in a post-pandemic environment.<blockquote>请记住，Moderna迄今为止的巨大成功归功于其COVID-19疫苗的两剂初始方案。该疫苗的加强剂只需要注射一针。更重要的是，需要助推器的频率存在不确定性。在大流行后的环境中，世界各国政府也可能对新冠肺炎疫苗的价格更加敏感。</blockquote> Perhaps things will unfold in a way that justifies Moderna's current valuation. For now, though, I think there are more outcomes that could cause this stock to fall than there are catalysts that could make it soar again.<blockquote>也许事情的发展会证明Moderna目前的估值是合理的。不过，就目前而言，我认为可能导致该股下跌的结果比可能使其再次飙升的催化剂更多。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Biotech Stocks That Are Ridiculously Overpriced<blockquote>3只定价过高的生物科技股</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Biotech Stocks That Are Ridiculously Overpriced<blockquote>3只定价过高的生物科技股</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMotley Fool2021-10-20 19:21\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nBeauty is in the eye of the beholder -- and, in many cases, so is the appropriate valuation of a stock. One investor might view a stock as overvalued, while another investor sees it as relatively well priced.<blockquote>情人眼里出西施——在许多情况下，股票的适当估值也是如此。一位投资者可能认为一只股票被高估，而另一位投资者则认为它的定价相对合理。</blockquote> We asked three Motley Fool contributors which biotech stocks they think are ridiculously overpriced right now. Here's why they picked&nbsp;Cassava Sciences(NASDAQ:SAVA),Ocugen(NASDAQ:OCGN), and&nbsp;Moderna(NASDAQ:MRNA).<blockquote>我们询问了三位Motley Fool撰稿人，他们认为哪些生物技术股票目前定价过高。这就是他们选择的原因木薯科学（纳斯达克：萨瓦），奥库根（纳斯达克：OCGN），以及现代（纳斯达克：MRNA）。</blockquote> This biotech isn't worth the trouble<blockquote>这种生物技术不值得这么麻烦</blockquote> Prosper Junior Bakiny(Cassava Sciences):Investors have been flocking to this clinical-stage biotech all year long, pushing its share price up by well over 600%. It's still barely into the realm of mid-cap status, though, with a market cap of roughly $2 billion as of this writing.<blockquote>Prosper Junior Bakiny（木薯科学）：投资者全年都在涌向这家处于临床阶段的生物技术公司，推动其股价上涨了600%以上。不过，截至撰写本文时，该公司的市值约为20亿美元，仍勉强进入中型股领域。</blockquote> Cassava Sciences is hardly worth that much, though.<blockquote>不过，木薯科学公司并不值那么多钱。</blockquote> It's is currently developing Simufilam for the treatment of Alzheimer's disease. Positive results from a pair of clinical trials -- coupled with the&nbsp;controversial approval&nbsp;of&nbsp;Biogen's Aduhelm earlier this year -- have helped the company's stock perform as well as it has this year.<blockquote>该公司目前正在开发用于治疗阿尔茨海默病的Simufilam。两项临床试验的积极结果——加上有争议的批准Biogen今年早些时候的Aduhelm帮助该公司的股票表现出色。</blockquote> But there are some reasons to worry. First, many companies have tried to develop effective drugs directed at the underlying causes of Alzheimer's disease. Nearly all of them failed, even after successful phase 2 studies.<blockquote>但也有一些值得担心的理由。首先，许多公司试图开发针对阿尔茨海默病潜在原因的有效药物。即使在成功的二期研究之后，几乎所有的研究都失败了。</blockquote> Even the data from Biogen's pivotal trial for Aduhelm wasn't that convincing. That's why the Food and Drug Administration is insisting on a post-approval confirmatory study for the medicine. It could be taken off the market if it fails to prove that actually helps Alzheimer's patients.<blockquote>即使是百健(Biogen)对Aduhelm的关键试验的数据也不那么令人信服。这就是为什么食品和药物管理局坚持对该药物进行批准后验证性研究。如果它不能证明它实际上对阿尔茨海默氏症患者有帮助，它可能会被下架。</blockquote> Of course, just because others failed to develop an effective treatment for this condition doesn't mean Cassava Sciences will too. The point is, investors should view even the positive results Simufilam has produced so far with a healthy dose of skepticism.<blockquote>当然，仅仅因为其他人未能开发出针对这种情况的有效治疗方法并不意味着木薯科学公司也会这样做。关键是，即使是Simufilam迄今为止取得的积极成果，投资者也应该以适度的怀疑态度看待。</blockquote> Results from a 12-month open-label study of Simufilam&nbsp;weren't that impressive. Then there is the citizen petition that New York-based law firm Labaton Sucharow filed with the FDA requesting that the agency halt clinical trials featuring Simufilam.&nbsp;Labaton Sucharow is representing clients with short positions in the stock, so there are some financial incentives for it to target Cassava. Still, this dark cloud will continue to hover above the biotech for a while.<blockquote>一项为期12个月的Simufilam开放标签研究的结果并不那么令人印象深刻。然后是总部位于纽约的律师事务所Labaton Sucharow向FDA提交的公民请愿书，要求该机构停止以Simufilam为特色的临床试验。Labaton Sucharow代表持有股票空头头寸的客户，因此它瞄准木薯有一些财务激励。尽管如此，这片乌云仍将在生物技术上空盘旋一段时间。</blockquote> Add these to the other headwinds that Cassava Sciences could run into, including the very real possibility that Simufilam will fail miserably in its phase 3 clinical trials or that it will encounter regulatory setbacks, and this biotech stock looks far too risky to invest in, even at current levels.<blockquote>再加上Cassava Sciences可能遇到的其他阻力，包括Simufilam在3期临床试验中惨败或遭遇监管挫折的可能性非常真实，即使在目前的水平上。</blockquote> Ocugen is too risky to take a chance on<blockquote>Ocugen风险太大，不能冒险</blockquote> David Jagielski(Ocugen):This company became popular among retail investors this year based on the hopes that it will be the next COVID-19 vaccine stock to make it big. There's just one problem: Ocugen's success in that regard will hinge on the approval of Covaxin, which it's co-developing with Indian biotech company Bharat Biotech.<blockquote>David Jagielski（Ocugen）：这家公司今年受到散户投资者的欢迎，因为人们希望它将成为下一只做大的COVID-19疫苗股。只有一个问题：Ocugen在这方面的成功将取决于科瓦克辛的批准，该公司正在与印度生物技术公司Bharat Biotech共同开发该产品。</blockquote> Ocugen announced in June that it would pursue a Biologics License Application for its COVID-19 vaccine candidate in the U.S., based on a recommendation from the Food and Drug Administration. That involves a longer process than getting an Emergency Use Authorization, and implies that the agency may have been unwilling to grant emergency approval for the vaccine.<blockquote>Ocugen在6月份宣布，根据美国食品药品监督管理局的建议，它将在美国为其新冠肺炎候选疫苗申请生物制品许可证。这涉及比获得紧急使用授权更长的过程，并意味着该机构可能不愿意授予该疫苗的紧急批准。</blockquote> There was more positive news last week when&nbsp;India granted Emergency Use Authorization for Covaxinto be used to inoculate children ages 2 to 18. Unfortunately, that doesn't mean anything for Ocugen -- it only shares in the profits that the vaccine makes in Canada and the U.S.<blockquote>上周有更多积极消息，印度授予Covaxinto紧急使用授权，用于为2至18岁的儿童接种疫苗。不幸的是，这对Ocugen来说并不意味着什么——它只分享疫苗在加拿大和美国的利润。</blockquote> But even though that good news out of India will have no notable impact on Ocugen's business, its stock price jumped anyway, topping the $10 mark for the first time in months. The performance of the company and the stock have simply not been connected. Through the first six months of this year, Ocugen has reported&nbsp;no revenue. Yet its shares have risen by more than 350% year to date.<blockquote>但尽管来自印度的好消息不会对Ocugen的业务产生明显影响，但其股价仍大幅上涨，数月来首次突破10美元大关。公司的业绩和股票根本没有联系。今年前六个月，Ocugen报告无收入然而，其股价今年迄今已上涨超过350%。</blockquote> The good news is that there is still hope for the business beyond just its COVID-19 vaccine. The company is moving forward on its gene-therapy treatment, OCU400, and it plans to begin clinical studies on it later this year. However, the human trials phase of OCU400's development, even if it's ultimately successful, will take years.<blockquote>好消息是，除了COVID-19疫苗之外，该业务仍有希望。该公司正在推进其基因疗法OCU400，并计划在今年晚些时候开始临床研究。然而，OCU400开发的人体试验阶段，即使最终成功，也需要数年时间。</blockquote> Given its market cap of $1.6 billion, I think that investors are taking on a ton of risk by buying shares of Ocugen. My view is that this is akin to gambling onpenny stocks, except in those cases, at least, valuations can be incredibly low. In Ocugen's case, the stock may have limited upside.<blockquote>鉴于其16亿美元的市值，我认为投资者购买Ocugen股票是在承担很大的风险。我的观点是，这类似于押注细价股，除非在这些情况下，至少估值可能低得令人难以置信。就Ocugen而言，该股的上涨空间可能有限。</blockquote> A great company that's just too expensive<blockquote>一家伟大的公司，但价格太贵了</blockquote> Keith Speights(Moderna): Most of the critiques that Prosper and David had for Cassava and Ocugen don't apply to Moderna at all. The company already has a huge blockbuster on the market with its COVID-19 vaccine. It's rolling in profits as sales for the vaccine continue to soar.<blockquote>基思·斯贝茨（现代）：Prosper和David对Cassava和Ocugen的大多数批评根本不适用于Moderna。该公司的COVID-19疫苗已经在市场上取得了巨大的成功。随着疫苗销量持续飙升，该公司的利润不断增加。</blockquote> Moderna even has a promising pipeline. It hopes to soon advance cytomegalovirus (CMV) vaccine candidate mRNA-1647 into late-stage testing. The company is evaluating an experimental flu vaccine in early-stage testing and hopes to develop a combination COVID-19/flu vaccine. In total, the company has 17 clinical-stage programs.<blockquote>Moderna甚至有一个很有前途的管道。它希望很快将巨细胞病毒(CMV)候选疫苗mRNA-1647推进到后期测试。该公司正在早期测试中评估一种实验性流感疫苗，并希望开发一种新冠肺炎/流感联合疫苗。该公司总共有17个临床阶段项目。</blockquote> I think that Moderna's messenger RNA (mRNA) platform could produce many blockbuster vaccines and therapies over the coming decades. My view is that it's a great company. However, I also think that its shares are just too expensive now.<blockquote>我认为Moderna的信使RNA(mRNA)平台可以在未来几十年内生产出许多重磅疫苗和疗法。我的观点是这是一家伟大的公司。不过，我也认为它的股票现在太贵了。</blockquote> Some might point to Moderna's forward price-to-earnings multiple of 11.2 as evidence that I'm dead wrong about the stock being overvalued. However, the problem with this metric is that it only looks one year into the future. Moderna's CEO has&nbsp;predicted that the pandemic could effectively end by late 2022. If he's right, I suspect that the company's revenue and earnings could fall off significantly after that.<blockquote>有些人可能会指出Moderna 11.2的预期市盈率证明我对该股被高估的看法大错特错。然而，这个指标的问题在于它只着眼于未来一年。Moderna首席执行官预测，疫情可能会在2022年底有效结束。如果他是对的，我怀疑此后该公司的收入和盈利可能会大幅下降。</blockquote> Remember that Moderna's enormous success so far has resulted from a two-dose initial regimen of its COVID-19 vaccine. Boosters of that vaccine will only require one shot. More importantly, there's uncertainty about how frequently boosters will be needed. Governments around the world could also become more price-conscious about what they'll pay for COVID-19 vaccines in a post-pandemic environment.<blockquote>请记住，Moderna迄今为止的巨大成功归功于其COVID-19疫苗的两剂初始方案。该疫苗的加强剂只需要注射一针。更重要的是，需要助推器的频率存在不确定性。在大流行后的环境中，世界各国政府也可能对新冠肺炎疫苗的价格更加敏感。</blockquote> Perhaps things will unfold in a way that justifies Moderna's current valuation. For now, though, I think there are more outcomes that could cause this stock to fall than there are catalysts that could make it soar again.<blockquote>也许事情的发展会证明Moderna目前的估值是合理的。不过，就目前而言，我认为可能导致该股下跌的结果比可能使其再次飙升的催化剂更多。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/10/20/3-biotech-stocks-that-are-ridiculously-overpriced/\">Motley Fool</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MRNA":"Moderna, Inc.","OCGN":"Ocugen","SAVA":"Cassava Sciences Inc"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/10/20/3-biotech-stocks-that-are-ridiculously-overpriced/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151911991","content_text":"Beauty is in the eye of the beholder -- and, in many cases, so is the appropriate valuation of a stock. One investor might view a stock as overvalued, while another investor sees it as relatively well priced.\nWe asked three Motley Fool contributors which biotech stocks they think are ridiculously overpriced right now. Here's why they picked Cassava Sciences(NASDAQ:SAVA),Ocugen(NASDAQ:OCGN), and Moderna(NASDAQ:MRNA).\nThis biotech isn't worth the trouble\nProsper Junior Bakiny(Cassava Sciences):Investors have been flocking to this clinical-stage biotech all year long, pushing its share price up by well over 600%. It's still barely into the realm of mid-cap status, though, with a market cap of roughly $2 billion as of this writing.\nCassava Sciences is hardly worth that much, though.\nIt's is currently developing Simufilam for the treatment of Alzheimer's disease. Positive results from a pair of clinical trials -- coupled with the controversial approval of Biogen's Aduhelm earlier this year -- have helped the company's stock perform as well as it has this year.\nBut there are some reasons to worry. First, many companies have tried to develop effective drugs directed at the underlying causes of Alzheimer's disease. Nearly all of them failed, even after successful phase 2 studies.\nEven the data from Biogen's pivotal trial for Aduhelm wasn't that convincing. That's why the Food and Drug Administration is insisting on a post-approval confirmatory study for the medicine. It could be taken off the market if it fails to prove that actually helps Alzheimer's patients.\nOf course, just because others failed to develop an effective treatment for this condition doesn't mean Cassava Sciences will too. The point is, investors should view even the positive results Simufilam has produced so far with a healthy dose of skepticism.\nResults from a 12-month open-label study of Simufilam weren't that impressive. Then there is the citizen petition that New York-based law firm Labaton Sucharow filed with the FDA requesting that the agency halt clinical trials featuring Simufilam. Labaton Sucharow is representing clients with short positions in the stock, so there are some financial incentives for it to target Cassava. Still, this dark cloud will continue to hover above the biotech for a while.\nAdd these to the other headwinds that Cassava Sciences could run into, including the very real possibility that Simufilam will fail miserably in its phase 3 clinical trials or that it will encounter regulatory setbacks, and this biotech stock looks far too risky to invest in, even at current levels.\nOcugen is too risky to take a chance on\nDavid Jagielski(Ocugen):This company became popular among retail investors this year based on the hopes that it will be the next COVID-19 vaccine stock to make it big. There's just one problem: Ocugen's success in that regard will hinge on the approval of Covaxin, which it's co-developing with Indian biotech company Bharat Biotech.\nOcugen announced in June that it would pursue a Biologics License Application for its COVID-19 vaccine candidate in the U.S., based on a recommendation from the Food and Drug Administration. That involves a longer process than getting an Emergency Use Authorization, and implies that the agency may have been unwilling to grant emergency approval for the vaccine.\nThere was more positive news last week when India granted Emergency Use Authorization for Covaxinto be used to inoculate children ages 2 to 18. Unfortunately, that doesn't mean anything for Ocugen -- it only shares in the profits that the vaccine makes in Canada and the U.S.\nBut even though that good news out of India will have no notable impact on Ocugen's business, its stock price jumped anyway, topping the $10 mark for the first time in months. The performance of the company and the stock have simply not been connected. Through the first six months of this year, Ocugen has reported no revenue. Yet its shares have risen by more than 350% year to date.\nThe good news is that there is still hope for the business beyond just its COVID-19 vaccine. The company is moving forward on its gene-therapy treatment, OCU400, and it plans to begin clinical studies on it later this year. However, the human trials phase of OCU400's development, even if it's ultimately successful, will take years.\nGiven its market cap of $1.6 billion, I think that investors are taking on a ton of risk by buying shares of Ocugen. My view is that this is akin to gambling onpenny stocks, except in those cases, at least, valuations can be incredibly low. In Ocugen's case, the stock may have limited upside.\nA great company that's just too expensive\nKeith Speights(Moderna): Most of the critiques that Prosper and David had for Cassava and Ocugen don't apply to Moderna at all. The company already has a huge blockbuster on the market with its COVID-19 vaccine. It's rolling in profits as sales for the vaccine continue to soar.\nModerna even has a promising pipeline. It hopes to soon advance cytomegalovirus (CMV) vaccine candidate mRNA-1647 into late-stage testing. The company is evaluating an experimental flu vaccine in early-stage testing and hopes to develop a combination COVID-19/flu vaccine. In total, the company has 17 clinical-stage programs.\nI think that Moderna's messenger RNA (mRNA) platform could produce many blockbuster vaccines and therapies over the coming decades. My view is that it's a great company. However, I also think that its shares are just too expensive now.\nSome might point to Moderna's forward price-to-earnings multiple of 11.2 as evidence that I'm dead wrong about the stock being overvalued. However, the problem with this metric is that it only looks one year into the future. Moderna's CEO has predicted that the pandemic could effectively end by late 2022. If he's right, I suspect that the company's revenue and earnings could fall off significantly after that.\nRemember that Moderna's enormous success so far has resulted from a two-dose initial regimen of its COVID-19 vaccine. Boosters of that vaccine will only require one shot. More importantly, there's uncertainty about how frequently boosters will be needed. Governments around the world could also become more price-conscious about what they'll pay for COVID-19 vaccines in a post-pandemic environment.\nPerhaps things will unfold in a way that justifies Moderna's current valuation. For now, though, I think there are more outcomes that could cause this stock to fall than there are catalysts that could make it soar again.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MRNA":0.9,"SAVA":0.9,"OCGN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2651,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}