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2021-08-20

Is Etsy Stock A Buy Or Sell? Why It's One Of My Largest Positions<blockquote>Etsy股票是买入还是卖出？为什么这是我最大的头寸之一</blockquote>

Summary ETSY has been a multi-bagger over the last 2 years, but the future remains as bright as eve

Is Etsy Stock A Buy Or Sell? Why It's One Of My Largest Positions<blockquote>Etsy股票是买入还是卖出？为什么这是我最大的头寸之一</blockquote>

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Why It's One Of My Largest Positions<blockquote>Etsy股票是买入还是卖出？为什么这是我最大的头寸之一</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185599220","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nETSY has been a multi-bagger over the last 2 years, but the future remains as bright as eve","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>ETSY has been a multi-bagger over the last 2 years, but the future remains as bright as ever.</li> <li>Growth has slowed as the company laps pandemic quarters.</li> <li>ETSY trades at only 12.9x sales and 55x earnings.</li> <li>I explain why ETSY is a strong buy for long term investors.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9669924c849f0b264bfc617ae61d63fe\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1152\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Yurii Usenko/iStock via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>在过去的两年里，ETSY一直是一个多面手，但未来仍然一如既往地光明。</li><li>随着该公司度过大流行季度，增长已经放缓。</li><li>ETSY的销售额仅为12.9倍，市盈率为55倍。</li><li>我解释了为什么ETSY是长期投资者的强力买入对象。</li></ul>尤里·乌森科/iStock来自Getty Images</blockquote> Etsy(NASDAQ:ETSY)is one of those stocks that has sold off due to hopes of a pandemic recovery. Yet Wall Street may be underestimating the long term tailwinds brought upon by the pandemic, as ETSY has benefited from a dramatic boost to its name brand unlike no other. In spite of the post-earnings drop, ETSY is still producing gobs of cash and has strategically positioned itself to take on the global e-commerce market. I rate shares a strong buy for long term investors.<blockquote>Etsy（纳斯达克股票代码：ETSY）是因大流行复苏的希望而遭到抛售的股票之一。然而，华尔街可能低估了疫情带来的长期顺风，因为ETSY受益于其品牌的大幅提升，这是独一无二的。尽管盈利下降，ETSY仍在产生大量现金，并已战略性地定位自己，以挑战全球电子商务市场。我认为长期投资者强烈买入股票。</blockquote> Etsy Stock Price<blockquote>Etsy股价</blockquote> ETSY was a huge beneficiary of the pandemic as the country not only increased its appetite for face masks but also customized goods in general:<blockquote>ETSY是这一流行病的巨大受益者，因为该国不仅增加了对口罩的需求，而且还增加了一般定制商品的需求：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1e05c608845ad0b6d2bbb45239a3ba1\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Yet the stock has struggled since reaching all time highs earlier in the year. With concerns regarding the pandemic in large part in the rear view mirror, is ETSY still a buy?<blockquote>然而，自今年早些时候达到历史高点以来，该股一直在苦苦挣扎。由于对疫情的担忧在很大程度上已成为过去，ETSY仍然值得买入吗？</blockquote> What is the target price for ETSY?<blockquote>ETSY的目标价是多少？</blockquote> Wall Street analysts remain quite bullish on the company’s prospects, with an average analyst rating of 4.56 out of 5:<blockquote>华尔街分析师对该公司的前景仍然相当看好，分析师平均评级为4.56分（满分5分）：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/104e72f2308e81ede2380a11de15a041\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"229\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Seeking Alpha)<blockquote>（寻求阿尔法）</blockquote> The average price target of $215.93 suggests around 13% upside:<blockquote>平均目标价为215.93美元，上涨空间约为13%：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c50ec45b8e38b463b31b646fec10c2b2\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"156\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Seeking Alpha)<blockquote>（寻求阿尔法）</blockquote> Is Etsy Stock Overvalued?<blockquote>Etsy股票是否被高估？</blockquote> Even though ETSY fell double-digits after reporting earnings, there’s an argument that the stock is still undervalued.<blockquote>尽管ETSY在公布财报后股价下跌了两位数，但有人认为该股仍然被低估。</blockquote> Revenue grew 23% year over year - a solid growth rate but a huge deceleration from the 141% growth rate of the prior quarter.<blockquote>收入同比增长23%，增长率稳健，但较上一季度141%的增长率大幅放缓。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/330bf3e4f9de8272422337e95120ddd2\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"542\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Investor Presentation)<blockquote>（投资者介绍）</blockquote> The slowdown was to be expected. It appears that the stock fell due to what appears to be conservative guidance of just 13.5% YOY revenue growth for the next quarter:<blockquote>经济放缓是意料之中的。该股下跌的原因似乎是保守的下一季度收入同比增长仅为13.5%：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ec1f609911fcf3a676d007481a56943\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"598\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Investor Presentation)<blockquote>（投资者介绍）</blockquote> Wall Street, as you no doubt know, often focuses too much on near term earnings numbers. If one zooms out and takes a longer term lens, they might find that stocks can experience great volatility around earnings even if they are still trending up longer term. We can see below that weekly app downloads have been getting stronger in recent months:<blockquote>毫无疑问，正如您所知，华尔街往往过于关注近期盈利数据。如果人们缩小范围并采取更长期的视角，他们可能会发现，即使股票在长期内仍呈上涨趋势，其盈利也可能会经历巨大的波动。我们可以在下面看到，最近几个月每周的应用程序下载量越来越强劲：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fba3add965636c9ec27a72cbfa2a7f57\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"618\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Investor Presentation)<blockquote>（投资者介绍）</blockquote> ETSY has been trying to emerge as an e-commerce powerhouse that can rival Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN). Part of that strategy is dominating the resale space, an area it entered through its acquisition of Depop.<blockquote>ETSY一直试图成为一家可以与亚马逊（纳斯达克：AMZN）竞争的电子商务巨头。该战略的一部分是主导转售领域，该公司通过收购Depop进入了这一领域。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1b01e04c65564d0f2874193d943be25\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"590\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Investor Presentation)<blockquote>（投资者介绍）</blockquote> ETSY has also acquired Elo7 - the “Etsy of Brazil.”<blockquote>Etsy还收购了“巴西Etsy”Elo7。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7831f087a04cdd771a5aa6437fc0840c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"638\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Investor Presentation)<blockquote>（投资者介绍）</blockquote> I expect this acquisition to prove to be an important growth driver in the future. ETSY was able to become an incredible marketplace on its own. Elo7 will benefit from ETSY’s investment.<blockquote>我预计此次收购将成为未来重要的增长动力。ETSY能够凭借自己的力量成为一个令人难以置信的市场。Elo7将受益于ETSY的投资。</blockquote> Together, these platforms position ETSY to become more than just a niche e-commerce marketplace: ETSY is set to become a legitimate e-commerce challenger to the likes of Amazon and Shopify(NYSE:SHOP).<blockquote>这些平台共同使ETSY不仅仅是一个利基电子商务市场：ETSY将成为亚马逊和Shopify（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SHOP）等公司的合法电子商务挑战者。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c07c53d66c2bbefa348455469ed8f34\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"677\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Investor Presentation)<blockquote>（投资者介绍）</blockquote> Is ETSY Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?<blockquote>ETSY股票是买入、卖出还是持有？</blockquote> As of recent prices, ETSY is trading at 12.9x trailing sales and 55x earnings. Net income is likely held back due to accelerated investment in sales &amp; marketing. When one wants to buy something on Etsy.com, the search results are much better on that website itself, as opposed to Google. That’s why it makes sense for ETSY to invest so aggressively in sales &amp; marketing so people know about Etsy in the first place. At some point, I expect ETSY to scale back sales &amp; marketing and just let the cash flow to the bottomline.<blockquote>截至最近的价格，ETSY的交易价格是往绩销售额的12.9倍，市盈率是55倍。由于销售和营销投资的加速，净利润可能会受到抑制。当一个人想在Etsy.com买东西时，与谷歌相比，该网站本身的搜索结果要好得多。这就是为什么Etsy如此积极地投资于销售和营销是有意义的，这样人们就可以首先了解Etsy。在某些时候，我预计ETSY会缩减销售和营销规模，让现金流向底线。</blockquote> The stock might not look so cheap right now, but this is a cash cow which I can see returning to 20+% growth next year and beyond. For what it’s worth, Wall Street analysts expect ETSY to maintain robust growth rates through 2025:<blockquote>该股现在可能看起来不那么便宜，但这是一棵摇钱树，我可以看到明年及以后将恢复20%以上的增长。无论如何，华尔街分析师预计ETSY将在2025年之前保持强劲的增长率：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f67eafd008c1ce7321559d34fdff053b\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"331\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Seeking Alpha)<blockquote>（寻求阿尔法）</blockquote> I expect ETSY to be able to drive strong operating leverage as it eventually scales back its reliance on sales &amp; marketing spend. I expect the company to be able to eventually earn 35% net margins. I anticipate a 30x 2025 earnings multiple, which based on 35% long term margins, suggests a 10.5x price to sales multiple. That represents roughly 110% upside through 2025 - a compounded annual return of around 20%. There may be substantial upside surprise potential to that projection, as ETSY is already earning 20+% net margins and may be able to sustain elevated growth rates for a longer period of time. I rate shares a strong buy with a high likelihood of outperforming the market for many years.<blockquote>我预计ETSY最终能够减少对销售和营销支出的依赖，从而推动强大的运营杠杆。我预计该公司最终能够获得35%的净利润率。我预计2025年市盈率为30倍，基于35%的长期利润率，这意味着市销率为10.5倍。这意味着到2025年，其上涨空间约为110%，复合年回报率约为20%。这一预测可能存在巨大的上行潜力，因为ETSY的净利润率已经超过20%，并且可能能够在更长的时间内维持较高的增长率。我将该股评级为强力买入，多年来表现出色的可能性很高。</blockquote> Risks<blockquote>风险</blockquote> <ul> <li>The e-commerce market is highly competitive. While ETSY appears to have a niche in customized goods, it is possible that other platforms try to compete in the space. For now, I find this to not be so likely due to the network effects provided by the ETSY platform.<blockquote><ul><li>电子商务市场竞争激烈。虽然ETSY似乎在定制商品领域占有一席之地，但其他平台可能会试图在这一领域竞争。目前，我发现由于ETSY平台提供的网络效应，这种可能性不大。</li></ul></blockquote></li> <li>ETSY sellers may try to sell on their own website in order to avoid commission fees. Through services like Shopify, sellers may be able to host their own e-commerce stores. I expect overall sales to remain reliant on ETSY’s sales funnel, and ETSY’s diverse list of stores helps mitigate the risk of any one seller moving off the platform.<blockquote><li>ETSY卖家可能会尝试在自己的网站上销售，以避免佣金费用。通过Shopify等服务，卖家或许能够托管自己的电子商务商店。我预计整体销售仍将依赖ETSY的销售漏斗，ETSY多样化的商店列表有助于降低任何一个卖家离开平台的风险。</li></blockquote></li> <li>ETSY might not be able to show the operating leverage that I anticipate. I see two main scenarios that this might occur. ETSY might have to compete on commission fees if another e-commerce platform poses competition. ETSY might also have to continually increase its sales &amp; marketing expense to third-party advertisements like Google if it is unable to build strong enough name brand recognition.<blockquote><li>ETSY可能无法显示我预期的运营杠杆。我认为这种情况可能会发生两种主要情况。如果另一个电子商务平台构成竞争，ETSY可能不得不在佣金上竞争。如果ETSY无法建立足够强大的品牌认知度，它可能还必须不断增加谷歌等第三方广告的销售和营销费用。</li></blockquote></li> </ul> Conclusion<blockquote>结论</blockquote> While ETSY has run up dramatically since only several years ago, much of that outperformance appears to have been due to the absurd undervaluation at which the shares had traded before. The pandemic has boosted ETSY’s business and brand recognition, positioning it nicely to continuing taking market share in the overall e-commerce market. While the current valuation might not make undervaluation immediately apparent, the high profitability and potential for operating leverage suggests that if ETSY can keep up robust growth rates, then it should produce returns far outpacing the broader market. I rate shares a strong buy for long term investors.<blockquote>虽然ETSY自几年前以来就大幅上涨，但其优异表现似乎很大程度上是由于该股之前的交易价格被荒谬地低估。疫情提高了ETSY的业务和品牌认知度，使其能够继续在整个电子商务市场占据市场份额。虽然目前的估值可能不会立即使低估变得明显，但高盈利能力和运营杠杆潜力表明，如果ETSY能够保持强劲的增长率，那么它应该会产生远远超过大盘的回报。我认为长期投资者强烈买入股票。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Etsy Stock A Buy Or Sell? 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Why It's One Of My Largest Positions<blockquote>Etsy股票是买入还是卖出？为什么这是我最大的头寸之一</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nseekingalpha2021-08-20 13:43\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>ETSY has been a multi-bagger over the last 2 years, but the future remains as bright as ever.</li> <li>Growth has slowed as the company laps pandemic quarters.</li> <li>ETSY trades at only 12.9x sales and 55x earnings.</li> <li>I explain why ETSY is a strong buy for long term investors.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9669924c849f0b264bfc617ae61d63fe\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1152\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Yurii Usenko/iStock via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>在过去的两年里，ETSY一直是一个多面手，但未来仍然一如既往地光明。</li><li>随着该公司度过大流行季度，增长已经放缓。</li><li>ETSY的销售额仅为12.9倍，市盈率为55倍。</li><li>我解释了为什么ETSY是长期投资者的强力买入对象。</li></ul>尤里·乌森科/iStock来自Getty Images</blockquote> Etsy(NASDAQ:ETSY)is one of those stocks that has sold off due to hopes of a pandemic recovery. Yet Wall Street may be underestimating the long term tailwinds brought upon by the pandemic, as ETSY has benefited from a dramatic boost to its name brand unlike no other. In spite of the post-earnings drop, ETSY is still producing gobs of cash and has strategically positioned itself to take on the global e-commerce market. I rate shares a strong buy for long term investors.<blockquote>Etsy（纳斯达克股票代码：ETSY）是因大流行复苏的希望而遭到抛售的股票之一。然而，华尔街可能低估了疫情带来的长期顺风，因为ETSY受益于其品牌的大幅提升，这是独一无二的。尽管盈利下降，ETSY仍在产生大量现金，并已战略性地定位自己，以挑战全球电子商务市场。我认为长期投资者强烈买入股票。</blockquote> Etsy Stock Price<blockquote>Etsy股价</blockquote> ETSY was a huge beneficiary of the pandemic as the country not only increased its appetite for face masks but also customized goods in general:<blockquote>ETSY是这一流行病的巨大受益者，因为该国不仅增加了对口罩的需求，而且还增加了一般定制商品的需求：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1e05c608845ad0b6d2bbb45239a3ba1\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Yet the stock has struggled since reaching all time highs earlier in the year. With concerns regarding the pandemic in large part in the rear view mirror, is ETSY still a buy?<blockquote>然而，自今年早些时候达到历史高点以来，该股一直在苦苦挣扎。由于对疫情的担忧在很大程度上已成为过去，ETSY仍然值得买入吗？</blockquote> What is the target price for ETSY?<blockquote>ETSY的目标价是多少？</blockquote> Wall Street analysts remain quite bullish on the company’s prospects, with an average analyst rating of 4.56 out of 5:<blockquote>华尔街分析师对该公司的前景仍然相当看好，分析师平均评级为4.56分（满分5分）：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/104e72f2308e81ede2380a11de15a041\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"229\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Seeking Alpha)<blockquote>（寻求阿尔法）</blockquote> The average price target of $215.93 suggests around 13% upside:<blockquote>平均目标价为215.93美元，上涨空间约为13%：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c50ec45b8e38b463b31b646fec10c2b2\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"156\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Seeking Alpha)<blockquote>（寻求阿尔法）</blockquote> Is Etsy Stock Overvalued?<blockquote>Etsy股票是否被高估？</blockquote> Even though ETSY fell double-digits after reporting earnings, there’s an argument that the stock is still undervalued.<blockquote>尽管ETSY在公布财报后股价下跌了两位数，但有人认为该股仍然被低估。</blockquote> Revenue grew 23% year over year - a solid growth rate but a huge deceleration from the 141% growth rate of the prior quarter.<blockquote>收入同比增长23%，增长率稳健，但较上一季度141%的增长率大幅放缓。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/330bf3e4f9de8272422337e95120ddd2\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"542\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Investor Presentation)<blockquote>（投资者介绍）</blockquote> The slowdown was to be expected. It appears that the stock fell due to what appears to be conservative guidance of just 13.5% YOY revenue growth for the next quarter:<blockquote>经济放缓是意料之中的。该股下跌的原因似乎是保守的下一季度收入同比增长仅为13.5%：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ec1f609911fcf3a676d007481a56943\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"598\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Investor Presentation)<blockquote>（投资者介绍）</blockquote> Wall Street, as you no doubt know, often focuses too much on near term earnings numbers. If one zooms out and takes a longer term lens, they might find that stocks can experience great volatility around earnings even if they are still trending up longer term. We can see below that weekly app downloads have been getting stronger in recent months:<blockquote>毫无疑问，正如您所知，华尔街往往过于关注近期盈利数据。如果人们缩小范围并采取更长期的视角，他们可能会发现，即使股票在长期内仍呈上涨趋势，其盈利也可能会经历巨大的波动。我们可以在下面看到，最近几个月每周的应用程序下载量越来越强劲：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fba3add965636c9ec27a72cbfa2a7f57\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"618\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Investor Presentation)<blockquote>（投资者介绍）</blockquote> ETSY has been trying to emerge as an e-commerce powerhouse that can rival Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN). Part of that strategy is dominating the resale space, an area it entered through its acquisition of Depop.<blockquote>ETSY一直试图成为一家可以与亚马逊（纳斯达克：AMZN）竞争的电子商务巨头。该战略的一部分是主导转售领域，该公司通过收购Depop进入了这一领域。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1b01e04c65564d0f2874193d943be25\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"590\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Investor Presentation)<blockquote>（投资者介绍）</blockquote> ETSY has also acquired Elo7 - the “Etsy of Brazil.”<blockquote>Etsy还收购了“巴西Etsy”Elo7。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7831f087a04cdd771a5aa6437fc0840c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"638\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Investor Presentation)<blockquote>（投资者介绍）</blockquote> I expect this acquisition to prove to be an important growth driver in the future. ETSY was able to become an incredible marketplace on its own. Elo7 will benefit from ETSY’s investment.<blockquote>我预计此次收购将成为未来重要的增长动力。ETSY能够凭借自己的力量成为一个令人难以置信的市场。Elo7将受益于ETSY的投资。</blockquote> Together, these platforms position ETSY to become more than just a niche e-commerce marketplace: ETSY is set to become a legitimate e-commerce challenger to the likes of Amazon and Shopify(NYSE:SHOP).<blockquote>这些平台共同使ETSY不仅仅是一个利基电子商务市场：ETSY将成为亚马逊和Shopify（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SHOP）等公司的合法电子商务挑战者。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c07c53d66c2bbefa348455469ed8f34\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"677\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Investor Presentation)<blockquote>（投资者介绍）</blockquote> Is ETSY Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?<blockquote>ETSY股票是买入、卖出还是持有？</blockquote> As of recent prices, ETSY is trading at 12.9x trailing sales and 55x earnings. Net income is likely held back due to accelerated investment in sales &amp; marketing. When one wants to buy something on Etsy.com, the search results are much better on that website itself, as opposed to Google. That’s why it makes sense for ETSY to invest so aggressively in sales &amp; marketing so people know about Etsy in the first place. At some point, I expect ETSY to scale back sales &amp; marketing and just let the cash flow to the bottomline.<blockquote>截至最近的价格，ETSY的交易价格是往绩销售额的12.9倍，市盈率是55倍。由于销售和营销投资的加速，净利润可能会受到抑制。当一个人想在Etsy.com买东西时，与谷歌相比，该网站本身的搜索结果要好得多。这就是为什么Etsy如此积极地投资于销售和营销是有意义的，这样人们就可以首先了解Etsy。在某些时候，我预计ETSY会缩减销售和营销规模，让现金流向底线。</blockquote> The stock might not look so cheap right now, but this is a cash cow which I can see returning to 20+% growth next year and beyond. For what it’s worth, Wall Street analysts expect ETSY to maintain robust growth rates through 2025:<blockquote>该股现在可能看起来不那么便宜，但这是一棵摇钱树，我可以看到明年及以后将恢复20%以上的增长。无论如何，华尔街分析师预计ETSY将在2025年之前保持强劲的增长率：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f67eafd008c1ce7321559d34fdff053b\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"331\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Seeking Alpha)<blockquote>（寻求阿尔法）</blockquote> I expect ETSY to be able to drive strong operating leverage as it eventually scales back its reliance on sales &amp; marketing spend. I expect the company to be able to eventually earn 35% net margins. I anticipate a 30x 2025 earnings multiple, which based on 35% long term margins, suggests a 10.5x price to sales multiple. That represents roughly 110% upside through 2025 - a compounded annual return of around 20%. There may be substantial upside surprise potential to that projection, as ETSY is already earning 20+% net margins and may be able to sustain elevated growth rates for a longer period of time. I rate shares a strong buy with a high likelihood of outperforming the market for many years.<blockquote>我预计ETSY最终能够减少对销售和营销支出的依赖，从而推动强大的运营杠杆。我预计该公司最终能够获得35%的净利润率。我预计2025年市盈率为30倍，基于35%的长期利润率，这意味着市销率为10.5倍。这意味着到2025年，其上涨空间约为110%，复合年回报率约为20%。这一预测可能存在巨大的上行潜力，因为ETSY的净利润率已经超过20%，并且可能能够在更长的时间内维持较高的增长率。我将该股评级为强力买入，多年来表现出色的可能性很高。</blockquote> Risks<blockquote>风险</blockquote> <ul> <li>The e-commerce market is highly competitive. While ETSY appears to have a niche in customized goods, it is possible that other platforms try to compete in the space. For now, I find this to not be so likely due to the network effects provided by the ETSY platform.<blockquote><ul><li>电子商务市场竞争激烈。虽然ETSY似乎在定制商品领域占有一席之地，但其他平台可能会试图在这一领域竞争。目前，我发现由于ETSY平台提供的网络效应，这种可能性不大。</li></ul></blockquote></li> <li>ETSY sellers may try to sell on their own website in order to avoid commission fees. Through services like Shopify, sellers may be able to host their own e-commerce stores. I expect overall sales to remain reliant on ETSY’s sales funnel, and ETSY’s diverse list of stores helps mitigate the risk of any one seller moving off the platform.<blockquote><li>ETSY卖家可能会尝试在自己的网站上销售，以避免佣金费用。通过Shopify等服务，卖家或许能够托管自己的电子商务商店。我预计整体销售仍将依赖ETSY的销售漏斗，ETSY多样化的商店列表有助于降低任何一个卖家离开平台的风险。</li></blockquote></li> <li>ETSY might not be able to show the operating leverage that I anticipate. I see two main scenarios that this might occur. ETSY might have to compete on commission fees if another e-commerce platform poses competition. ETSY might also have to continually increase its sales &amp; marketing expense to third-party advertisements like Google if it is unable to build strong enough name brand recognition.<blockquote><li>ETSY可能无法显示我预期的运营杠杆。我认为这种情况可能会发生两种主要情况。如果另一个电子商务平台构成竞争，ETSY可能不得不在佣金上竞争。如果ETSY无法建立足够强大的品牌认知度，它可能还必须不断增加谷歌等第三方广告的销售和营销费用。</li></blockquote></li> </ul> Conclusion<blockquote>结论</blockquote> While ETSY has run up dramatically since only several years ago, much of that outperformance appears to have been due to the absurd undervaluation at which the shares had traded before. The pandemic has boosted ETSY’s business and brand recognition, positioning it nicely to continuing taking market share in the overall e-commerce market. While the current valuation might not make undervaluation immediately apparent, the high profitability and potential for operating leverage suggests that if ETSY can keep up robust growth rates, then it should produce returns far outpacing the broader market. I rate shares a strong buy for long term investors.<blockquote>虽然ETSY自几年前以来就大幅上涨，但其优异表现似乎很大程度上是由于该股之前的交易价格被荒谬地低估。疫情提高了ETSY的业务和品牌认知度，使其能够继续在整个电子商务市场占据市场份额。虽然目前的估值可能不会立即使低估变得明显，但高盈利能力和运营杠杆潜力表明，如果ETSY能够保持强劲的增长率，那么它应该会产生远远超过大盘的回报。我认为长期投资者强烈买入股票。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4450661-etsy-stock-buy-sell-largest-positions\">seekingalpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ETSY":"Etsy, Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4450661-etsy-stock-buy-sell-largest-positions","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185599220","content_text":"Summary\n\nETSY has been a multi-bagger over the last 2 years, but the future remains as bright as ever.\nGrowth has slowed as the company laps pandemic quarters.\nETSY trades at only 12.9x sales and 55x earnings.\nI explain why ETSY is a strong buy for long term investors.\n\nYurii Usenko/iStock via Getty Images\nEtsy(NASDAQ:ETSY)is one of those stocks that has sold off due to hopes of a pandemic recovery. Yet Wall Street may be underestimating the long term tailwinds brought upon by the pandemic, as ETSY has benefited from a dramatic boost to its name brand unlike no other. In spite of the post-earnings drop, ETSY is still producing gobs of cash and has strategically positioned itself to take on the global e-commerce market. I rate shares a strong buy for long term investors.\nEtsy Stock Price\nETSY was a huge beneficiary of the pandemic as the country not only increased its appetite for face masks but also customized goods in general:\n\nYet the stock has struggled since reaching all time highs earlier in the year. With concerns regarding the pandemic in large part in the rear view mirror, is ETSY still a buy?\nWhat is the target price for ETSY?\nWall Street analysts remain quite bullish on the company’s prospects, with an average analyst rating of 4.56 out of 5:\n(Seeking Alpha)\nThe average price target of $215.93 suggests around 13% upside:\n(Seeking Alpha)\nIs Etsy Stock Overvalued?\nEven though ETSY fell double-digits after reporting earnings, there’s an argument that the stock is still undervalued.\nRevenue grew 23% year over year - a solid growth rate but a huge deceleration from the 141% growth rate of the prior quarter.\n(Investor Presentation)\nThe slowdown was to be expected. It appears that the stock fell due to what appears to be conservative guidance of just 13.5% YOY revenue growth for the next quarter:\n(Investor Presentation)\nWall Street, as you no doubt know, often focuses too much on near term earnings numbers. If one zooms out and takes a longer term lens, they might find that stocks can experience great volatility around earnings even if they are still trending up longer term. We can see below that weekly app downloads have been getting stronger in recent months:\n(Investor Presentation)\nETSY has been trying to emerge as an e-commerce powerhouse that can rival Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN). Part of that strategy is dominating the resale space, an area it entered through its acquisition of Depop.\n(Investor Presentation)\nETSY has also acquired Elo7 - the “Etsy of Brazil.”\n(Investor Presentation)\nI expect this acquisition to prove to be an important growth driver in the future. ETSY was able to become an incredible marketplace on its own. Elo7 will benefit from ETSY’s investment.\nTogether, these platforms position ETSY to become more than just a niche e-commerce marketplace: ETSY is set to become a legitimate e-commerce challenger to the likes of Amazon and Shopify(NYSE:SHOP).\n(Investor Presentation)\nIs ETSY Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?\nAs of recent prices, ETSY is trading at 12.9x trailing sales and 55x earnings. Net income is likely held back due to accelerated investment in sales & marketing. When one wants to buy something on Etsy.com, the search results are much better on that website itself, as opposed to Google. That’s why it makes sense for ETSY to invest so aggressively in sales & marketing so people know about Etsy in the first place. At some point, I expect ETSY to scale back sales & marketing and just let the cash flow to the bottomline.\nThe stock might not look so cheap right now, but this is a cash cow which I can see returning to 20+% growth next year and beyond. For what it’s worth, Wall Street analysts expect ETSY to maintain robust growth rates through 2025:\n(Seeking Alpha)\nI expect ETSY to be able to drive strong operating leverage as it eventually scales back its reliance on sales & marketing spend. I expect the company to be able to eventually earn 35% net margins. I anticipate a 30x 2025 earnings multiple, which based on 35% long term margins, suggests a 10.5x price to sales multiple. That represents roughly 110% upside through 2025 - a compounded annual return of around 20%. There may be substantial upside surprise potential to that projection, as ETSY is already earning 20+% net margins and may be able to sustain elevated growth rates for a longer period of time. I rate shares a strong buy with a high likelihood of outperforming the market for many years.\nRisks\n\nThe e-commerce market is highly competitive. While ETSY appears to have a niche in customized goods, it is possible that other platforms try to compete in the space. For now, I find this to not be so likely due to the network effects provided by the ETSY platform.\nETSY sellers may try to sell on their own website in order to avoid commission fees. Through services like Shopify, sellers may be able to host their own e-commerce stores. I expect overall sales to remain reliant on ETSY’s sales funnel, and ETSY’s diverse list of stores helps mitigate the risk of any one seller moving off the platform.\nETSY might not be able to show the operating leverage that I anticipate. I see two main scenarios that this might occur. ETSY might have to compete on commission fees if another e-commerce platform poses competition. ETSY might also have to continually increase its sales & marketing expense to third-party advertisements like Google if it is unable to build strong enough name brand recognition.\n\nConclusion\nWhile ETSY has run up dramatically since only several years ago, much of that outperformance appears to have been due to the absurd undervaluation at which the shares had traded before. The pandemic has boosted ETSY’s business and brand recognition, positioning it nicely to continuing taking market share in the overall e-commerce market. While the current valuation might not make undervaluation immediately apparent, the high profitability and potential for operating leverage suggests that if ETSY can keep up robust growth rates, then it should produce returns far outpacing the broader market. I rate shares a strong buy for long term investors.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ETSY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1058,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}