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2021-10-06

Top 3 Automotive Semiconductor Stocks To Buy<blockquote>最值得买入的三只汽车半导体股票</blockquote>

Summary Despite the automotive market being at a mature stage with average vehicle unit sales growt

Top 3 Automotive Semiconductor Stocks To Buy<blockquote>最值得买入的三只汽车半导体股票</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":829610581,"tweetId":"829610581","gmtCreate":1633496855806,"gmtModify":1633497121460,"author":{"id":4096598627888600,"idStr":"4096598627888600","authorId":4096598627888600,"authorIdStr":"4096598627888600","name":"AxieMan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc3b1d0a57ea2733dbe9b73458bdb9e6","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":1,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Up</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Up</body></html>","text":"Up","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/829610581","repostId":1117147045,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1117147045","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633489335,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1117147045?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-06 11:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Top 3 Automotive Semiconductor Stocks To Buy<blockquote>最值得买入的三只汽车半导体股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117147045","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nDespite the automotive market being at a mature stage with average vehicle unit sales growt","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Despite the automotive market being at a mature stage with average vehicle unit sales growth projected at 1.24% annually to 2030, we find the use of semiconductor chips in vehicles.</li> <li>Automotive MCUs are essential in various vehicle electronic systems and are forecasted to grow at a long-term CAGR of 11.18% based on the 20-year average.</li> <li>The rise of autonomous vehicles is expected to spur demand for complex and advanced ADAS SoCs with autonomous vehicle unit growth projected to grow at a 73.9% average rate.</li> <li>Finally, automakers are incorporating more LEDs in their designs and to meet rising regulatory requirements as LED content grew at a CAGR of 18.8%.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70ecf357b9a91355cebad80e4c912bca\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Company Logos<blockquote><ul><li>尽管汽车市场正处于成熟阶段，预计到2030年平均汽车销量每年增长1.24%，但我们发现半导体芯片在汽车中的使用。</li><li>汽车MCU在各种汽车电子系统中至关重要，根据20年平均水平，预计长期复合年增长率为11.18%。</li><li>自动驾驶汽车的兴起预计将刺激对复杂和先进的ADAS SoC的需求，自动驾驶汽车的平均增长率预计为73.9%。</li><li>最后，随着LED含量以18.8%的复合年增长率增长，汽车制造商正在将更多的LED融入其设计中，以满足不断提高的监管要求。</li></ul>来源：公司标识</blockquote> Semiconductors are used in all types of electronic devices across multiple applications. Automotive&nbsp;accounts&nbsp;for 10% of the semiconductor market. Although the outlook of vehicle sales in terms of unit sales growth is flattish as the average vehicle age continue to rise due to increased reliability and better maintenance capabilities as well as the rise of alternative transportation modes such as the emergence of ride-sharing, semiconductor growth is still expected to be strong driven by rising automotive features and functionalities across safety, infotainment, connectivity and automation. In this analysis, we analyzed the trends of rising chip content per vehicle across the automotive MCU, ADAS SoC and LED chips with the evolution of technological advancements which is a continuous trend across centuries since the invention of the automobile. The global vehicle sales growth has averaged at 1.9% since 2011. Among several factors driving growth includes rising GDP per capita of 2.1% on average in the past 10 years. We estimate the GDP per capita to rise by 2.7% until 2030 based on global&nbsp;GDP&nbsp;and&nbsp;population&nbsp;growth forecasts.<blockquote>半导体用于多种应用的所有类型的电子设备中。汽车占半导体市场的10%。尽管由于可靠性提高和更好的维护能力以及拼车等替代交通方式的兴起，平均车龄持续上升，汽车销量增长前景平淡，但半导体增长预计仍将受到安全、信息娱乐、连接和自动化领域汽车特性和功能不断增加的推动。在本分析中，我们分析了随着技术进步的发展，汽车MCU、ADAS SoC和LED芯片的每辆车芯片含量不断上升的趋势，这是自汽车发明以来几个世纪的持续趋势。自2011年以来，全球汽车销量平均增长1.9%。推动增长的几个因素包括过去10年人均GDP平均增长2.1%。根据全球GDP和人口增长预测，我们估计到2030年人均GDP将增长2.7%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dab0ed2ce4b2194b2aa9e8171a411a0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: OCIA, MacroTrends, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：OCIA、MacroTrends、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> Although GDP per capita is rising, vehicle sales have been diverging from GDP growth as the average age of vehicles is also increasing to 11.85 years in 2020 worldwide on average. Vehicle owners are more&nbsp;comfortable&nbsp;holding cars longer because cars are more reliable than in the past and vehicle service contracts and other insurance products mitigate repair costs. IHS Markit&nbsp;predicts&nbsp;that the average vehicle age to continue rising, we expect this to be negative to vehicle growth as consumers hold on to their vehicles longer.<blockquote>尽管人均GDP正在上升，但汽车销量一直与GDP增长背离，因为全球汽车的平均车龄也在增加到2020年的11.85年。车主更愿意持有汽车更长时间，因为汽车比过去更可靠，而且车辆服务合同和其他保险产品可以降低维修成本。IHS Markit预测，平均车龄将继续上升，我们预计这将对汽车增长产生负面影响，因为消费者持有汽车的时间更长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2607e627d74510558fe49d2964281f2e\" tg-width=\"475\" tg-height=\"425\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: WolfStreet, Statista<blockquote>资料来源：WolfStreet、Statista</blockquote> Moreover, we also expect the rise of the ride-sharing market to weigh on vehicle sales growth as people opt for alternative modes of transport. We assumed that the expected rise of ridesharing drivers to affect vehicle sales based on&nbsp;studies&nbsp;from MDPI which indicates that between 2 to 4.5 of vehicles could be replaced per ridesharing driver, Thus, we accounted for this trend in our projections by estimating the number of global ridesharing drivers at 14.2 mln and increasing by an average rate of 4.8% annually through 2030. Overall, we expect the vehicle unit sales growth to remain flattish beyond 2022 and derived a projected vehicle growth rate of 1.24% from 2023 to 2030.<blockquote>此外，我们还预计，随着人们选择替代交通方式，拼车市场的兴起将拖累汽车销售增长。根据MDPI的研究，我们假设拼车司机的预期增长会影响汽车销售，这表明每个拼车司机可以更换2至4.5辆汽车，因此，我们在预测中通过估计全球拼车司机的数量来说明这一趋势为1420万，到2030年平均每年增长4.8%。总体而言，我们预计2022年之后汽车销量增长将保持平稳，预计2023年至2030年汽车增长率为1.24%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e471dd7dccfcac3165fd44f07949e57f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">* E = B x C;A = E - F.Source: OCIA, Statista, MacroTrends, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>*E=B × C；A=E-F。资料来源：OCIA、Statista、MacroTrends、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34311f8c2c8263b2e3e4556e8b46cf31\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: OCIA, Statista, MacroTrends, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：OCIA、Statista、MacroTrends、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> In 2020, the top automaker by sales is tabulated below with Toyota and Volkswagen as the top 2 leading automakers in the world. These automakers have set targets to produce more electric vehicles for example BMW (OTCPK:BMWYY) is&nbsp;pushing&nbsp;for 15% to 25% of sales to be electric vehicles by 2025 while Honda (HMC) is striving for two thirds by 2030.<blockquote>2020年，销量最大的汽车制造商如下表所示，丰田和大众是全球前两大汽车制造商。这些汽车制造商已经设定了生产更多电动汽车的目标，例如宝马(OTCPK：BMWYY)力争到2025年电动汽车占销量的15%至25%，而本田(HMC)则力争到2030年达到三分之二。</blockquote> Top Automakers in the World (2020)<blockquote>全球顶级汽车制造商（2020年）</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d40f179aa0bdaea075776d46ef0499fc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: OICA<blockquote>资料来源：伊斯兰会议组织</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3a9c7e7e386452d904c98710820c9e8\" tg-width=\"604\" tg-height=\"728\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: OICA<blockquote>资料来源：伊斯兰会议组织</blockquote> The chart below shows the timeline for the deployment of advanced driver assistance systems with the vision of fully automated driving. The increasing adoption of more advanced features and functionalities are key for semiconductor growth as more content is required to power more complex electronics. Since the 1980s, the number of technologies and functionalities that provides an enhanced driving experience has increased with the rise of features such as ABS, adaptive cruise control, blind-spot warning, collision warnings, etc. In the future, more functionalities and support are expected to be adopted in vehicles like automated parking, on-demand mobility and even fully autonomous vehicles.<blockquote>下图显示了以全自动驾驶为愿景的高级驾驶辅助系统的部署时间表。越来越多地采用更先进的特性和功能是半导体增长的关键，因为需要更多的内容来为更复杂的电子设备提供动力。自20世纪80年代以来，随着ABS、自适应巡航控制、盲点警告、碰撞警告等功能的兴起，提供增强驾驶体验的技术和功能的数量也在增加。未来，预计将在自动停车、按需移动甚至全自动车辆等车辆中采用更多功能和支持。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2bcda881b59b281eb3686d9f1b359f2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"328\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: ResearchGate<blockquote>来源：ResearchGate</blockquote> Overall, the rising applications of advanced automotive features and functionalities could spur the growth of the semiconductor market. For example, microcontrollers are used to&nbsp;control&nbsp;air conditioners, power windows, braking, headlights, and steering. Its adaptability and flexibility provide high performance and low power consumptions and the increasing demand for comfort, safety and fuel economic vehicles drives the automakers to introduce more microcontrollers. With increasing vehicle autonomy, advanced ADAS SoC chips will be increasingly crucial to enable seamless driverless vehicle performance. Furthermore, the rise of EV and AV could also spur the growth of LEDs for automotive interiors as automakers&nbsp;capitalize&nbsp;on the benefits of driverless vehicles providing passengers with more freedom and seek greater comfort and atmosphere through enhanced lighting.<blockquote>总体而言，先进汽车特性和功能的应用不断增加可能会刺激半导体市场的增长。例如，微控制器用于控制空调、电动车窗、制动、前灯和转向。它的适应性和灵活性提供了高性能和低功耗，对舒适性、安全性和燃油经济性车辆日益增长的需求促使汽车制造商引入更多的微控制器。随着车辆自主性的提高，先进的ADAS SoC芯片对于实现无缝无人驾驶车辆性能将变得越来越重要。此外，电动汽车和自动驾驶汽车的兴起也可能刺激汽车内饰LED的增长，因为汽车制造商利用无人驾驶汽车为乘客提供更多自由的优势，并通过增强照明寻求更大的舒适度和氛围。</blockquote> Automotive Microcontrollers<blockquote>汽车微控制器</blockquote> A microcontroller gathers input, processes this information, and outputs a certain action based on the information gathered. The&nbsp;increasing demand&nbsp;for comfort, safety and fuel economic vehicles drives the automakers to introduce microcontrollers. These new functions require local intelligence that can only be optimized using powerful microcontrollers. Microcontrollers ensure robust functionality in a harsh environment. Intense competition among automakers drives them to seek an innovative solution to differentiate their vehicles without compromising safety and cost. Microcontrollers in automobiles are present in large equipment to small devices and are used to manage air conditioners, power windows, braking, headlights, and steering. Microcontroller's adaptability and flexibility provide high performance and low power consumption and bring a revolutionary change in all aspects of the automobile industry.<blockquote>微控制器收集输入，处理这些信息，并根据收集的信息输出某个动作。对舒适性、安全性和燃油经济性车辆日益增长的需求促使汽车制造商引入微控制器。这些新功能需要本地智能，只有使用功能强大的微控制器才能进行优化。微控制器确保在恶劣环境下的强大功能。汽车制造商之间的激烈竞争促使他们寻求创新的解决方案，在不影响安全性和成本的情况下使其车辆与众不同。汽车中的微控制器存在于大型设备到小型设备中，用于管理空调、电动车窗、制动、前灯和转向。微控制器的适应性和灵活性提供了高性能和低功耗，给汽车工业的各个方面带来了革命性的变化。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b911a4f11ae85ef681eb11f30355e57f\" tg-width=\"575\" tg-height=\"249\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: ee News<blockquote>来源：ee新闻</blockquote> The communication in automobiles, which is established by&nbsp;various microcontrollers, has control over both fail-safe systems and automotive fault-tolerant systems, where the microcontrollers cannot only serve to respond to mishaps and faults that occur to the car (anti-lock brake interference, accelerator, and broken lights), but also to duplicate as secondary units that continuously check the car (anti-lock brake interference, accelerator, and broken lights). When the car tires slip on a snow-covered road, this is an example of fault tolerance. The incident elicited a response from the driver, but it was also detected by a sensor microcontroller, which engaged the anti-clock braking system when the driver slammed on the brakes.<blockquote>由各种微控制器建立的汽车中的通信具有对故障安全系统和汽车容错系统的控制，其中微控制器不仅可以用于响应发生在汽车上的事故和故障（防抱死制动干扰、加速器和损坏的灯），还可以作为连续检查汽车的辅助单元（防抱死制动干扰、加速器和损坏的灯）。当汽车轮胎在积雪路面打滑时，这就是容错的一个例子。该事件引起了驾驶员的反应，但也被传感器微控制器检测到，当驾驶员猛踩刹车时，传感器微控制器会接合逆时针制动系统。</blockquote> From 1998 to 2011, we estimate that the number of MCUs in an average vehicle has grown at a CAGR of 8.2% from&nbsp;18&nbsp;to&nbsp;over&nbsp;50 MCUs as functionalities and features rise and become more common such as airbags, steering, suspension, braking, body control functions and power train. Premium vehicles have greater adoption of advanced functionalities thus requiring greater MCUs. An electronic control unit (ECU) is an&nbsp;embedded systeminautomotive electronics&nbsp;that controls one or more of the&nbsp;electrical systems&nbsp;or subsystems in a vehicle with MCUs as the main chip of the system. For example, a BMW 7 series in 2018 is&nbsp;estimated&nbsp;to have over 150 ECUs than the same model in&nbsp;2014&nbsp;with 65 between 60 to 65 ECUs which translates to a CAGR of 23.3% in the period as more advanced functionalities were introduced such as stability management systems, GPS based navigation systems, By-wire steering and braking systems, voice recognition; collision warning systems. With the continued development of new technologies and adoption across vehicles, the MCU content per vehicle is expected to rise with new&nbsp;features&nbsp;such as blind-spot information system, reversing assistant, adaptive cruise control, active roll mitigation, night vision assist, driver fatigue alert, rear cross-traffic alert, etc.<blockquote>从1998年到2011年，我们估计，随着功能和特性的增加和变得更加普遍，如安全气囊、转向、悬架、制动、车身控制功能和动力传动系统，平均车辆中的MCU数量以8.2%的复合年增长率从18个MCU增长到超过50个MCU。高级车辆更多地采用了高级功能，因此需要更多的MCU。电子控制单元（ECU）是汽车电子设备中的嵌入式系统，它以MCU作为系统的主芯片来控制车辆中的一个或多个电气系统或子系统。例如，2018年的宝马7系估计拥有超过150个ECU，而2014年的同一车型有65个在60至65个ECU之间，这意味着在此期间的复合年增长率为23.3%，因为引入了更先进的功能，如稳定性管理系统、基于GPS的导航系统、线控转向和制动系统、语音识别；碰撞警告系统。随着新技术的不断发展和车辆的采用，每辆车的MCU含量预计将随着盲点信息系统、倒车辅助、自适应巡航控制、主动侧倾缓解、夜视辅助、驾驶员疲劳警报、后方交叉交通警报等新功能而上升。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3f3bd932a75f26d373639312813ed0a\" tg-width=\"903\" tg-height=\"332\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Elprocus, Kpit, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Elprocus、Kpit、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> The market players in the automotive microcontrollers market include Renesas (OTCPK:RNECF), NXP(NASDAQ:NXPI), Infineon (OTCQX:IFNNY), Texas Instruments (TXN) and Microchip Technology (MCHP). Renesas and NXP are the market leaders with former leverages on&nbsp;its dominant market share&nbsp;in MCU and its broad product portfolio. The latter offers comprehensive solutions for safe, connected vehicles and its S32G high-performance processor can significantly enhance calculated performance while simplifying software complexity. Infineon is a leader in the&nbsp;production&nbsp;of system-on-chip solutions for automotive applications using the C16x architecture and the award-winning 32-bit Tricore architecture. Texas Instruments leverages technology to introduce an&nbsp;all-encompassing solution. Microchip Technology has a wide&nbsp;breadth&nbsp;of a portfolio of automotive-grade microcontrollers (MCUs).<blockquote>汽车微控制器市场的市场参与者包括瑞萨(OTCPK：RNECF)、恩智浦(纳斯达克：NXPI)、英飞凌(OTCQX：IFNNY)、德州仪器(TXN)和微芯科技(MCHP)。瑞萨和恩智浦是市场领导者，之前凭借其在MCU领域的主导市场份额和广泛的产品组合。后者为安全、互联的车辆提供全面的解决方案，其S32G高性能处理器可以显著增强计算性能，同时简化软件复杂性。英飞凌是采用C16x架构和屡获殊荣的32位三核架构为汽车应用生产片上系统解决方案的领导者。德州仪器利用技术推出了全方位的解决方案。Microchip Technology拥有广泛的汽车级微控制器（MCU）产品组合。</blockquote> Market Share of Automotive Microcontrollers (2018 to 2020)<blockquote>图：车载微控制器市场份额（2018-2020）</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c907489e7885515f5dde40a5589e02d\" tg-width=\"905\" tg-height=\"529\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Infineon, Strategy Analytics<blockquote>资料来源：英飞凌、Strategy Analytics</blockquote> Based on the market share data from Strategy Analytics, Renesas and NXP are the top market leaders with market shares above 26% in 2020 respectively. However, competition is heating up as Infineon has gained market share to 16.9% in 2020 and 2019 as it acquired Cypress Semiconductors. The other companies trailing behind are Texas Instruments and Microchip. These companies cater to demand from leading automakers and Tier 1 suppliers listed in the table below. We see Infineon's strengths as having a wide customer base especially following its acquisition of Cypress in 2018 which further broadened its customer base to 11 automakers and Tier 1 manufacturers.<blockquote>根据Strategy Analytics的市场份额数据，瑞萨和恩智浦是最大的市场领导者，2020年的市场份额分别超过26%。然而，随着英飞凌收购赛普拉斯半导体，其市场份额在2020年和2019年达到16.9%，竞争正在加剧。其他落后的公司是德州仪器和Microchip。这些公司满足下表中列出的领先汽车制造商和一级供应商的需求。我们认为英飞凌的优势在于拥有广泛的客户群，特别是在2018年收购赛普拉斯之后，进一步将其客户群扩大到11家汽车制造商和一级制造商。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48fbaace4c7b6761af0363a866e6bedd\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"562\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Renesas, Dun &amp; Bradstreet, PRNewswire<blockquote>资料来源：瑞萨、邓白氏、美通社</blockquote> Top Pick: Infineon<blockquote>首选：英飞凌</blockquote> Infineon is a leader in the&nbsp;production&nbsp;of system-on-chip solutions for automotive applications using the C16x architecture and the award-winning 32-bit Tricore architecture. Infineon's product portfolio also includes infotainment-specific microcontrollers, Bluetooth, cellular and GPS controllers, as well as high-frequency ICs, power semiconductors, LEDs and optical transceivers. Following the acquisition of Cypress, it has expanded its MCU product offering spanning across the entire automotive stack.<blockquote>英飞凌是采用C16x架构和屡获殊荣的32位三核架构为汽车应用生产片上系统解决方案的领导者。英飞凌的产品组合还包括信息娱乐专用微控制器、蓝牙、蜂窝和GPS控制器，以及高频IC、功率半导体、LED和光收发器。收购赛普拉斯后，该公司扩大了其MCU产品范围，涵盖整个汽车堆栈。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d75b54014a53e0b8f82dca98e87ef933\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Infineon also recently developed its&nbsp;Traveo II Body microcontroller family. With this product family, Infineon can address a broad variety of automotive applications, including body control modules, door, window, sunroof and seat control units as well as in-cabin smartphone terminals and wireless charging units. This launch follows Infineon's acquisition of Cypress Semiconductor Corporation, which contributed to the product family. Infineon has also&nbsp;introduced&nbsp;its second-generation AURIX (TC3xx) microcontrollers. These are the first embedded safety controllers worldwide to be certified for the highest automotive safety integrity level (ASIL D). Moreover, with the&nbsp;commissioning&nbsp;of the fab in Villach that makes chips on large, 300 mm wafers, Infineon will add a twin to a similar plant in Dresden, Germany and thereby gain flexibility in production.<blockquote>英飞凌最近还开发了其Traveo II机身微控制器系列。凭借该产品系列，英飞凌可以解决各种汽车应用，包括车身控制模块、车门、车窗、天窗和座椅控制单元以及车内智能手机终端和无线充电单元。此次发布之前，英飞凌收购了赛普拉斯半导体公司，为该产品系列做出了贡献。英飞凌还推出了第二代AURIX（TC3xx）微控制器。这些是全球首款获得最高汽车安全完整性等级（ASIL D）认证的嵌入式安全控制器。此外，随着菲拉赫生产大型300毫米晶圆芯片的晶圆厂投产，英飞凌将在德国德累斯顿的类似工厂中增加一个孪生工厂，从而获得生产灵活性。</blockquote> Overall, the automotive MCU market consists of various top players with broad product developments and extensive customer bases. Though, we believe that Infineon is the best among the auto MCU suppliers following its acquisition of Cypress which expanded its product offerings across the entire automotive stack and it has key relationships with at least 4 of the top automakers and a large base of Tier 1 manufacturers. Based on our DCF valuation with a discount rate of 9.5% (company's WACC), our model shows an upside of 25.77%.<blockquote>总体而言，汽车MCU市场由拥有广泛产品开发和广泛客户群的各种顶级参与者组成。尽管如此，我们认为英飞凌在收购赛普拉斯后是汽车MCU供应商中最好的，赛普拉斯将其产品范围扩展到整个汽车堆栈，并且与至少4家顶级汽车制造商和大量一级制造商建立了重要关系。根据我们贴现率为9.5%（公司WACC）的DCF估值，我们的模型显示上涨空间为25.77%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5491210e96a9150a8992683064b88cf1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：卡文投资</blockquote> ADAS Soc<blockquote>ADAS Soc</blockquote> The growth of the automotive vehicles market is&nbsp;attributed&nbsp;to the rising number of benefits offered by an unmanned vehicle as compared to traditional vehicles such as reduced road-crash risk, enhanced safety &amp; security, elimination in driver wages, secured mobility for disabled individuals and non-drivers, and increased comfort and flexibility offered by seamless operative systems. Autonomous vehicles are&nbsp;expected&nbsp;to account for about 12% of vehicles by 2030 representing an average annual growth rate of 73.2% by 2030. Assuming that 1 ADAS per vehicle, we assume that the annual growth rate for ADAS to be also at 73.2%.<blockquote>与传统车辆相比，汽车市场的增长归因于无人驾驶车辆提供的越来越多的好处，例如降低道路碰撞风险、增强安全性、消除驾驶员工资、确保残疾人和非驾驶员的移动性，以及无缝操作系统提供的增加的舒适性和灵活性。预计到2030年，自动驾驶汽车将占汽车的12%左右，到2030年的年均增长率为73.2%。假设每辆车有1个ADAS，我们假设ADAS的年增长率也为73.2%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b99fb755a24c9d43dda9f1b6776a252\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen投资</blockquote> The role of ADAS is to prevent accidents and injuries through more sophisticated vehicle systems. Essential safety-critical ADAS applications include pedestrian detection/avoidance, lane departure warning/correction, traffic sign recognition, automatic emergency braking, blind-spot detection, etc. These systems incorporate the latest interface standards and running multiple vision-based algorithms to support real-time multimedia, vision co-processing, and sensor fusion subsystems. With increasing autonomous capabilities and complexities, more advanced&nbsp;SoCs&nbsp;are required. Hardware designs are becoming increasingly complex and using more advanced nodes to meet performance requirements, its main role is to connect sensors to actuators through interfaces and high-performance ECUs (electronic controller units). The degree of self-driving capabilities is separated into 5 levels.<blockquote>ADAS的作用是通过更复杂的车辆系统来防止事故和伤害。基本的安全关键ADAS应用包括行人检测/避让、车道偏离警告/校正、交通标志识别、自动紧急制动、盲点检测等。这些系统结合了最新的接口标准，并运行多种基于视觉的算法，以支持实时多媒体、视觉协同处理和传感器融合子系统。随着自主能力和复杂性的增加，需要更先进的SoC。硬件设计变得越来越复杂，并使用更先进的节点来满足性能要求，其主要作用是通过接口和高性能ECU（电子控制器单元）将传感器连接到执行器。自动驾驶能力的程度分为5个等级。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb74874b41b27ac551840247b4d80ec9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Synopsys<blockquote>资料来源：新思科技</blockquote> Vehicles capable of sensing their environment with the increasing shift towards higher vehicle autonomy requires an&nbsp;increase&nbsp;in the electronic architecture of these vehicles. New integrated domain controllers require higher computing performance, better power efficiency and smaller forms. Mobileye was acquired by Intel (INTC) in 2017 and is developing its EyeQ product line while Qualcomm (QCOM) is trying to expand its presence in the market with the introduction of its Snapdragon Ride Platform. Though, we believe that Nvidia (NVDA) has several advantages over competitors in terms of anticipated performance and product roadmap and securing design wins across major automakers and Tier 1 suppliers.<blockquote>随着越来越多地转向更高的车辆自主性，能够感测其环境的车辆需要增加这些车辆的电子架构。新型集成域控制器需要更高的计算性能、更好的电源效率和更小的外形。Mobileye于2017年被英特尔(INTC)收购，正在开发其EyeQ产品线，而高通(QCOM)则试图通过推出Snapdragon Ride平台来扩大其在市场上的影响力。尽管如此，我们认为英伟达(NVDA)在预期性能和产品路线图以及确保主要汽车制造商和一级供应商的设计胜利方面比竞争对手具有多项优势。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff5211e4a065a23e7883e65a2a48edbd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Company data, Research and Markets, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：公司数据、研究和市场、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> Top pick: Nvidia<blockquote>首选：英伟达</blockquote> Nvidia's product development with its Nvidia Drive lineup has been impressive. It&nbsp;introduced&nbsp;the Drive AGX Orin software-defined platform for L5 autonomous driving in 2019 with nearly 7x greater performance than previous-gen Xavier SoCs delivering over 2,000 TOPS with the integration of its GPU solutions. It is expected to begin mass production in 2022 based on Samsung's 8nm process. NVIDIA DRIVE ADAS platform is powered by Orin SoCs for active safety, automated driving, parking applications and AI cockpit capabilities. In comparison with Mobileye's EyeQ 5, the performance achieved is believed to be 24 TOPS but at a lower power consumption of 10 W than Nvidia's 750 W power consumption whereas Qualcomm's Snapdragon&nbsp;platform&nbsp;scales from 30 TOPS for L1/L2 to 700 TOPS at 130W for L4/L5.<blockquote>Nvidia的Nvidia Drive系列产品开发令人印象深刻。它于2019年推出了用于L5自动驾驶的Drive AGX Orin软件定义平台，其性能比上一代Xavier SoC提高了近7倍，通过集成其GPU解决方案，可提供超过2,000个TOPS。预计将于2022年基于三星8nm工艺开始量产。NVIDIA DRIVE ADAS平台由Orin SoC提供支持，用于主动安全、自动驾驶、停车应用和AI座舱功能。与Mobileye的EyeQ 5相比，实现的性能被认为是24 TOPS，但功耗比Nvidia的750 W功耗低10 W，而高通的骁龙平台从L1/L2的30 TOPS扩展到L4/L5的130 W的700 TOPS。</blockquote> Moreover, another advantage that Nvidia has is its growing adoption of its SoCs by leading automakers. The company has 44 cars and 13 trucks Nvidia Drive partners as well as several robotaxi, Tier 1 suppliers, sensor and software partners. For example, it counts on Toyota and Mercedes Benz as two of the top automakers globally. Also, Volvo Cars, Zoox and SAIC are among the growing number of leading companies&nbsp;using&nbsp;the newest NVIDIA Drive solutions for their autonomous vehicles. Nvidia's automotive design win&nbsp;pipeline&nbsp;stood at $8 bln over the next 6 years. Whereas, Mobileye is&nbsp;active&nbsp;in 49 production programs across over 25 OEMs with key partners such as BMW, Geely (OTCPK:GELYF) and Ford.<blockquote>此外，英伟达的另一个优势是领先的汽车制造商越来越多地采用其SoC。该公司拥有44辆汽车和13辆卡车Nvidia Drive合作伙伴以及多家robotaxi、一级供应商、传感器和软件合作伙伴。例如，它将丰田和梅赛德斯奔驰视为全球两家顶级汽车制造商。此外，沃尔沃汽车、Zoox和上汽集团等越来越多的领先公司在其自动驾驶汽车中使用最新的NVIDIA Drive解决方案。未来6年，Nvidia的汽车设计win管道将达到80亿美元。鉴于Mobileye与宝马、吉利(OTCPK：GELYF)和福特等主要合作伙伴积极参与超过25家原始设备制造商的49个生产项目。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfffa1e1393ae33207769eb7245a36cd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"320\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Nvidia<blockquote>资料来源：英伟达</blockquote> Overall, despite Intel's current market leadership, we believe Nvidia to be the most promising in advanced ADAS SoCs due to its extensive partnerships with major automakers including Toyota, Mercedes Benz and Volvo and has 53 Nvidia DRIVE partners as well as Tier 1 manufacturers and software providers. Moreover, its touted Orin SoC appears to be highly promising with an impressive performance of up to 700 TOPs. As in our&nbsp;previous&nbsp;analysis on Nvidia, we valued the company based on a P/S valuation. Automotive accounts for only around 3% of revenues in FY2020 but we expect it to grow to above 8% of revenues by 2025 at a CAGR of 73.2% based on our projections of AV growth. Additionally, our base case assumes a 50% probability based on its continued progress to complete the Arm deal but also the regulatory approval headwinds. Moreover, we assume 100% of our derived synergies for the combined company to be realized through the acquisition.<blockquote>总体而言，尽管英特尔目前处于市场领先地位，但我们认为Nvidia是先进ADAS SoC领域最有前途的公司，因为它与丰田、奔驰和沃尔沃等主要汽车制造商建立了广泛的合作伙伴关系，并拥有53家Nvidia DRIVE合作伙伴以及一级制造商和软件提供商。此外，其吹捧的Orin SoC似乎非常有前途，具有高达700 TOPs的令人印象深刻的性能。正如我们之前对英伟达的分析一样，我们根据市盈率估值对该公司进行估值。2020财年，汽车仅占收入的3%左右，但根据我们对汽车增长的预测，我们预计到2025年，汽车将以73.2%的复合年增长率增长至收入的8%以上。此外，根据其完成Arm交易的持续进展以及监管批准的阻力，我们的基本案例假设有50%的概率。此外，我们假设合并后公司100%的协同效应将通过收购实现。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ecd026760c8c0853a1334b32e841b08\" tg-width=\"725\" tg-height=\"680\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：卡文投资</blockquote> Our 1-year average price target for the bear, base and bull case is $271.34.50, $289.40, $318.22 with of an upside of 21.2%, 29.2% and 42.1%<blockquote>我们对熊市、基础市和牛市的1年平均目标价为271.34.50美元、289.40美元、318.22美元，上涨空间为21.2%、29.2%和42.1%</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5ed64560aab637c2118f9752bad164f\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"354\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：卡文投资</blockquote> Auto LEDs<blockquote>自动发光二极管</blockquote> An LED is a diode that converts electrical energy into light. LEDs are almost 90% more&nbsp;efficient&nbsp;compared with halogen and incandescent lights due to their high-power efficiency and long-lasting nature. Rising demand for LEDs in vehicles is driven by&nbsp;stricter&nbsp;road safety regulations on vehicle lighting to promote passenger safety. The key advantages of LEDs are its design&nbsp;flexibility&nbsp;offered to automakers to accentuate their vehicle designs. Examples of applications where LEDs can be used are headlamps (high and low beam), brake lights, rear combination lamps, centre high mount stop lamps, daytime running lamps (DRLs), turn signals, interior reading lights (map lights), dome lights, accent lights, fog lamps, and position and marker lamps. Also, interior lighting is another area that could provide tremendous opportunities for LED adoption such as in ambient lighting, dashboard and instrument lighting. According to TrendForce, the LED&nbsp;penetration rate&nbsp;for cars has reached 53.1% in 2020 with the LED penetration rate for electric cars at 85% in 2020 and are likely to hit 60% and 90% in 2021 respectively. Besides that, the total number of LEDs for exterior and&nbsp;interior&nbsp;is expected to grow to 330 per vehicle in 2021 compared to 200 in 2019 and representing a CAGR of 28.45% with the additional innovative features. From 2010 to 2019, we estimate the CAGR to be around 16.65% from 50 LEDs per vehicle to 200 in 2019. Though, advancements in manufacturing processes are&nbsp;attributed&nbsp;to the declining ASPs of LEDs which has declined at a CAGR of -12% between 2010 to 2020. We expect that the continued advancement in LED manufacturing to result in declining ASPs by&nbsp;around&nbsp;a 5% CAGR by until 2030.<blockquote>LED是一种将电能转化为光的二极管。由于其高功率效率和持久的特性，LED比卤素灯和白炽灯的效率高出近90%。为了促进乘客安全，对车辆照明的更严格的道路安全法规推动了车辆对LED的需求不断增长。LED的主要优势是其设计灵活性，为汽车制造商提供了突出其车辆设计的优势。可以使用LED的应用的示例是前照灯(远光灯和近光灯)、制动灯、后组合灯、中央高位刹车灯、日间行车灯(DRL)、转向信号、内部阅读灯(地图灯)、顶灯、重点灯、雾灯以及位置和标记灯。此外，室内照明是另一个可以为LED采用提供巨大机会的领域，例如环境照明、仪表板和仪表照明。根据TrendForce的数据，2020年汽车LED渗透率已达到53.1%，2020年电动汽车LED渗透率为85%，并可能分别达到60%和90%。除此之外，预计2021年每辆车的外部和内部LED总数将从2019年的200个增长到330个，加上额外的创新功能，复合年增长率为28.45%。从2010年到2019年，我们估计CAGR约为16.65%，从每辆车50个LED增加到2019年的200个。尽管如此，制造工艺的进步归因于LED平均售价的下降，2010年至2020年间，LED平均售价的复合年增长率为-12%。我们预计，到2030年，LED制造的持续进步将导致平均售价复合年增长率下降约5%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5531a72a1ca25f9d3e69cff8f7c6fa2f\" tg-width=\"902\" tg-height=\"440\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: LED Professional, Osram, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：LED Professional、欧司朗、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a44120f579bede210dd5d2b592cf21fe\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"729\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Osram<blockquote>资料来源：欧司朗</blockquote> Top pick: Osram ('ams')<blockquote>首选：欧司朗（“ams”）</blockquote> In 2020, the key market leaders in the automotive LED market are Osram, Nichia and Lumileds which together accounted for 71.8% of the total market. Osram has consistently maintained its market leadership since 2018 as the number one player in LED packages with a market share of 36% in 2020 from 34.4% in the prior year. Based in Japan, Nichia is a top producer of LED packages which are&nbsp;characterized&nbsp;by high efficiency, flexible cluster configurations, and high luminous flux density. The company is a&nbsp;partner&nbsp;of Infineon and are also&nbsp;developing&nbsp;microLED technologies through a partnership. It&nbsp;claims&nbsp;that its new LED matrix will offer 180 times greater resolution than comparable solutions currently available. Furthermore, Lumileds is the third-largest LED chip company with a market share of 12.2% in 2020. The company is affiliated with Philips Lighting which serves&nbsp;automakers&nbsp;including Citroen, Ford, Kia (OTCPK:KIMTF), Tesla and Volkswagen. It also&nbsp;offers&nbsp;retrofitted LEDs to the German market allowing drivers to upgrade their headlights from halogen to Philips LED for safer driving.<blockquote>2020年，汽车LED市场的主要市场领导者是欧司朗、日亚和Lumileds，合计占总市场的71.8%。自2018年以来，欧司朗一直保持其市场领导地位，成为LED封装领域的第一大参与者，市场份额从前一年的34.4%上升到2020年的36%。Nichia总部位于日本，是LED封装的顶级生产商，其特点是高效率、灵活的集群配置和高光通量密度。该公司是英飞凌的合作伙伴，也在通过合作开发microLED技术。它声称其新的LED矩阵将提供比目前可用的同类解决方案高180倍的分辨率。此外，Lumileds是第三大LED芯片公司，2020年市场份额为12.2%。该公司隶属于飞利浦照明，飞利浦照明为雪铁龙、福特、起亚(OTCPK：KIMTF)、特斯拉和大众等汽车制造商提供服务。它还向德国市场提供改装的LED，允许驾驶员将前灯从卤素灯升级为飞利浦LED灯，以实现更安全的驾驶。</blockquote> Though, we favor Osram as the leading LED supplier due to its solid market leadership, continuous product development and integration opportunities with ams'(OTCPK:AMSSY)optoelectrical solutions. Based in Germany and with a history of more than 100 years, Osram counts on the major German automakers with the likes of&nbsp;Volkswagen, BMW, Audi as partners.<blockquote>不过，我们看好欧司朗作为领先的LED供应商，因为其稳固的市场领导地位、持续的产品开发以及与艾迈斯半导体(OTCPK：AMSSY)光电解决方案的集成机会。欧司朗总部位于德国，拥有100多年的历史，与大众、宝马、奥迪等德国主要汽车制造商合作。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9427d1c021dd4379f16758773c04f83d\" tg-width=\"629\" tg-height=\"416\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: LEDInside<blockquote>资料来源：LEDInside</blockquote> The company has a broad product portfolio of LED technologies for various aspects of vehicle lighting. It has&nbsp;collaborated&nbsp;with these automakers in product development such as with laser headlight technology as seen in the BMW i8 and the Audi (OTCPK:AUDVF) R8 LMX. Moreover, the company launched microLED developments and its Evyios hybrid headlamp module with 25,600&nbsp;pixels&nbsp;based on MicroLED technology. For more conventional LEDs, Osram's products are also&nbsp;used&nbsp;by its customers such as in the Audi A8.<blockquote>该公司拥有广泛的LED技术产品组合，适用于车辆照明的各个方面。它与这些汽车制造商在产品开发方面进行了合作，例如宝马i8和奥迪(OTCPK：AUDVF)R8 LMX中的激光头灯技术。此外，该公司还推出了microLED developments及其基于MicroLED技术的25,600像素的Evyios混合头灯模块。对于更传统的LED，欧司朗的产品也被其客户使用，例如奥迪A8。</blockquote> The business integration between ams and Osram is underway following the completion of the acquisition by ams. The combined company is running a broad set of programs to drive the creation of synergies and optimize its combined business portfolio. In terms of product innovation from the combined business, management has announced that portfolio alignment is in progress. The combined company possesses an outstanding technological and IP strength with over 15,000 patents. The integration of optics technologies, illumination and sensing across multiple active developments creates emerging opportunities in the automotive segment with a significant development focus including next-gen automotive lighting technology such as highly pixelated headlights and head-up display integrating AR to assist the driver and increase road safety. In addition, the company is also focusing on autonomous driving technologies with LIDAR and ADAS. The combination of ams and Osram edge-emitting laser and VCSEL capabilities for different LIDAR architectures put it in a unique position with a broad portfolio and leveraging the larger customer base of the combined firm.<blockquote>在艾迈斯半导体完成收购后，艾迈斯半导体和欧司朗之间的业务整合正在进行中。合并后的公司正在运行一系列广泛的计划，以推动协同效应的产生并优化其合并后的业务组合。在合并后业务的产品创新方面，管理层宣布产品组合调整正在进行中。合并后的公司拥有卓越的技术和知识产权实力，拥有超过15,000项专利。光学技术、照明和传感在多个活跃开发中的集成在汽车领域创造了新兴的机会，其重要的开发重点包括下一代汽车照明技术，如高度像素化的前灯和平视显示器，以帮助驾驶员并提高道路安全。此外，该公司还专注于激光雷达和ADAS的自动驾驶技术。艾迈斯半导体和欧司朗针对不同激光雷达架构的边缘发射激光器和VCSEL功能的结合使其处于独特的地位，拥有广泛的产品组合并利用合并后公司更大的客户群。</blockquote> Overall, we believe that Osram which is owned by AMS to be the most promising LED chipmaker due to its solid market leadership as the leading player and exciting product development spanning across various LED technologies. Not to mention, we previouslyanalyzed the integration benefits between Osram and AMS' sensor resulting in a massive portfolio of product patents with key developments in LiDAR and microLEDs for EV and AV. Based on our DCF valuation with a discount rate of 7.1% (company's WACC), our model shows an upside of 28.65%.<blockquote>总体而言，我们相信艾迈斯半导体旗下的欧司朗是最有前途的LED芯片制造商，因为其作为领先参与者的稳固市场领导地位以及跨越各种LED技术的令人兴奋的产品开发。更不用说，我们之前分析了欧司朗和艾迈斯半导体传感器之间的集成优势，从而产生了大量的产品专利组合，其中包括用于电动汽车和AV的激光雷达和MicroLED的关键开发。根据我们贴现率为7.1%（公司WACC）的DCF估值，我们的模型显示上涨空间为28.65%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ece55afb466744e5a00c6d4bf205184e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：卡文投资</blockquote> Verdict<blockquote>裁决</blockquote> Despite the flattish growth outlook of automotive sales in units at a projected rate of 1.24%, the rising semiconductor content in vehicles driven by the rising adoption of modern vehicle features and functionalities for safety, entertainment and connectivity bodes well for the semiconductor players. For example, we expect that with increasing vehicle functionality and more complex electronic systems in vehicles, the rise of MCU content in vehicles could continue at a long-term CAGR of 11.18%. With an extensive portfolio across the automotive stack, we believe Infineon could be a prime beneficiary of the growth opportunity with many relationships with automakers and Tier 1 suppliers. Moreover, the future rise of autonomous vehicle capability is expected is to drive demand for advanced ADAS SoCs in vehicles and we projected AV sales to grow by an average annual rate of 73.2% to 2030. Nvidia has extensive client wins of Nvidia Drive partners with a strong portfolio and roadmap. Lastly, we expect the rising LED adoption and content growth in both vehicle interior and exterior with a projected market growth rate of 12.9% to 2030 to benefit companies like Osram as our top pick as the leading LED chip supplier with key relationships in the German automobile industry and integration opportunities with ams. Overall, we rate Infineon as aBuywith a target price of&nbsp;$54.37, Nvidia as a Buy with a target price of&nbsp;$289.40&nbsp;and ams AG as a&nbsp;Buy&nbsp;with a target price of&nbsp;$12.53.<blockquote>尽管汽车销量增长前景平缓，预计增长率为1.24%，但由于安全、娱乐和连接方面的现代汽车特性和功能的采用不断增加，汽车中半导体含量的上升对半导体企业来说是个好兆头。例如，我们预计，随着车辆功能的增加和车辆中更复杂的电子系统，车辆中MCU含量的增长可能会以11.18%的长期复合年增长率继续增长。凭借在汽车领域的广泛产品组合，我们相信英飞凌可能是增长机会的主要受益者，与汽车制造商和一级供应商建立了许多关系。此外，未来自动驾驶汽车能力的提升预计将推动汽车对先进ADAS SoC的需求，我们预计到2030年，自动驾驶汽车销量将以年均73.2%的速度增长。Nvidia凭借强大的产品组合和路线图赢得了Nvidia Drive合作伙伴的广泛客户。最后，我们预计LED在汽车内部和外部的采用率和内容增长（预计到2030年市场增长率为12.9%）将使欧司朗等公司受益，欧司朗是我们作为领先LED芯片供应商的首选，在德国汽车行业拥有重要关系以及与ams的整合机会。总体而言，我们将英飞凌评为购买目标价为$54.37、英伟达给予买入评级，目标价为$289.40和ams AG作为购买目标价为$12.53.</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad4fb0b3fa547a13a5131717eee6c47e\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"354\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Top 3 Automotive Semiconductor Stocks To Buy<blockquote>最值得买入的三只汽车半导体股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTop 3 Automotive Semiconductor Stocks To Buy<blockquote>最值得买入的三只汽车半导体股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-10-06 11:02\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Despite the automotive market being at a mature stage with average vehicle unit sales growth projected at 1.24% annually to 2030, we find the use of semiconductor chips in vehicles.</li> <li>Automotive MCUs are essential in various vehicle electronic systems and are forecasted to grow at a long-term CAGR of 11.18% based on the 20-year average.</li> <li>The rise of autonomous vehicles is expected to spur demand for complex and advanced ADAS SoCs with autonomous vehicle unit growth projected to grow at a 73.9% average rate.</li> <li>Finally, automakers are incorporating more LEDs in their designs and to meet rising regulatory requirements as LED content grew at a CAGR of 18.8%.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70ecf357b9a91355cebad80e4c912bca\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Company Logos<blockquote><ul><li>尽管汽车市场正处于成熟阶段，预计到2030年平均汽车销量每年增长1.24%，但我们发现半导体芯片在汽车中的使用。</li><li>汽车MCU在各种汽车电子系统中至关重要，根据20年平均水平，预计长期复合年增长率为11.18%。</li><li>自动驾驶汽车的兴起预计将刺激对复杂和先进的ADAS SoC的需求，自动驾驶汽车的平均增长率预计为73.9%。</li><li>最后，随着LED含量以18.8%的复合年增长率增长，汽车制造商正在将更多的LED融入其设计中，以满足不断提高的监管要求。</li></ul>来源：公司标识</blockquote> Semiconductors are used in all types of electronic devices across multiple applications. Automotive&nbsp;accounts&nbsp;for 10% of the semiconductor market. Although the outlook of vehicle sales in terms of unit sales growth is flattish as the average vehicle age continue to rise due to increased reliability and better maintenance capabilities as well as the rise of alternative transportation modes such as the emergence of ride-sharing, semiconductor growth is still expected to be strong driven by rising automotive features and functionalities across safety, infotainment, connectivity and automation. In this analysis, we analyzed the trends of rising chip content per vehicle across the automotive MCU, ADAS SoC and LED chips with the evolution of technological advancements which is a continuous trend across centuries since the invention of the automobile. The global vehicle sales growth has averaged at 1.9% since 2011. Among several factors driving growth includes rising GDP per capita of 2.1% on average in the past 10 years. We estimate the GDP per capita to rise by 2.7% until 2030 based on global&nbsp;GDP&nbsp;and&nbsp;population&nbsp;growth forecasts.<blockquote>半导体用于多种应用的所有类型的电子设备中。汽车占半导体市场的10%。尽管由于可靠性提高和更好的维护能力以及拼车等替代交通方式的兴起，平均车龄持续上升，汽车销量增长前景平淡，但半导体增长预计仍将受到安全、信息娱乐、连接和自动化领域汽车特性和功能不断增加的推动。在本分析中，我们分析了随着技术进步的发展，汽车MCU、ADAS SoC和LED芯片的每辆车芯片含量不断上升的趋势，这是自汽车发明以来几个世纪的持续趋势。自2011年以来，全球汽车销量平均增长1.9%。推动增长的几个因素包括过去10年人均GDP平均增长2.1%。根据全球GDP和人口增长预测，我们估计到2030年人均GDP将增长2.7%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dab0ed2ce4b2194b2aa9e8171a411a0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: OCIA, MacroTrends, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：OCIA、MacroTrends、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> Although GDP per capita is rising, vehicle sales have been diverging from GDP growth as the average age of vehicles is also increasing to 11.85 years in 2020 worldwide on average. Vehicle owners are more&nbsp;comfortable&nbsp;holding cars longer because cars are more reliable than in the past and vehicle service contracts and other insurance products mitigate repair costs. IHS Markit&nbsp;predicts&nbsp;that the average vehicle age to continue rising, we expect this to be negative to vehicle growth as consumers hold on to their vehicles longer.<blockquote>尽管人均GDP正在上升，但汽车销量一直与GDP增长背离，因为全球汽车的平均车龄也在增加到2020年的11.85年。车主更愿意持有汽车更长时间，因为汽车比过去更可靠，而且车辆服务合同和其他保险产品可以降低维修成本。IHS Markit预测，平均车龄将继续上升，我们预计这将对汽车增长产生负面影响，因为消费者持有汽车的时间更长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2607e627d74510558fe49d2964281f2e\" tg-width=\"475\" tg-height=\"425\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: WolfStreet, Statista<blockquote>资料来源：WolfStreet、Statista</blockquote> Moreover, we also expect the rise of the ride-sharing market to weigh on vehicle sales growth as people opt for alternative modes of transport. We assumed that the expected rise of ridesharing drivers to affect vehicle sales based on&nbsp;studies&nbsp;from MDPI which indicates that between 2 to 4.5 of vehicles could be replaced per ridesharing driver, Thus, we accounted for this trend in our projections by estimating the number of global ridesharing drivers at 14.2 mln and increasing by an average rate of 4.8% annually through 2030. Overall, we expect the vehicle unit sales growth to remain flattish beyond 2022 and derived a projected vehicle growth rate of 1.24% from 2023 to 2030.<blockquote>此外，我们还预计，随着人们选择替代交通方式，拼车市场的兴起将拖累汽车销售增长。根据MDPI的研究，我们假设拼车司机的预期增长会影响汽车销售，这表明每个拼车司机可以更换2至4.5辆汽车，因此，我们在预测中通过估计全球拼车司机的数量来说明这一趋势为1420万，到2030年平均每年增长4.8%。总体而言，我们预计2022年之后汽车销量增长将保持平稳，预计2023年至2030年汽车增长率为1.24%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e471dd7dccfcac3165fd44f07949e57f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">* E = B x C;A = E - F.Source: OCIA, Statista, MacroTrends, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>*E=B × C；A=E-F。资料来源：OCIA、Statista、MacroTrends、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34311f8c2c8263b2e3e4556e8b46cf31\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: OCIA, Statista, MacroTrends, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：OCIA、Statista、MacroTrends、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> In 2020, the top automaker by sales is tabulated below with Toyota and Volkswagen as the top 2 leading automakers in the world. These automakers have set targets to produce more electric vehicles for example BMW (OTCPK:BMWYY) is&nbsp;pushing&nbsp;for 15% to 25% of sales to be electric vehicles by 2025 while Honda (HMC) is striving for two thirds by 2030.<blockquote>2020年，销量最大的汽车制造商如下表所示，丰田和大众是全球前两大汽车制造商。这些汽车制造商已经设定了生产更多电动汽车的目标，例如宝马(OTCPK：BMWYY)力争到2025年电动汽车占销量的15%至25%，而本田(HMC)则力争到2030年达到三分之二。</blockquote> Top Automakers in the World (2020)<blockquote>全球顶级汽车制造商（2020年）</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d40f179aa0bdaea075776d46ef0499fc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: OICA<blockquote>资料来源：伊斯兰会议组织</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3a9c7e7e386452d904c98710820c9e8\" tg-width=\"604\" tg-height=\"728\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: OICA<blockquote>资料来源：伊斯兰会议组织</blockquote> The chart below shows the timeline for the deployment of advanced driver assistance systems with the vision of fully automated driving. The increasing adoption of more advanced features and functionalities are key for semiconductor growth as more content is required to power more complex electronics. Since the 1980s, the number of technologies and functionalities that provides an enhanced driving experience has increased with the rise of features such as ABS, adaptive cruise control, blind-spot warning, collision warnings, etc. In the future, more functionalities and support are expected to be adopted in vehicles like automated parking, on-demand mobility and even fully autonomous vehicles.<blockquote>下图显示了以全自动驾驶为愿景的高级驾驶辅助系统的部署时间表。越来越多地采用更先进的特性和功能是半导体增长的关键，因为需要更多的内容来为更复杂的电子设备提供动力。自20世纪80年代以来，随着ABS、自适应巡航控制、盲点警告、碰撞警告等功能的兴起，提供增强驾驶体验的技术和功能的数量也在增加。未来，预计将在自动停车、按需移动甚至全自动车辆等车辆中采用更多功能和支持。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2bcda881b59b281eb3686d9f1b359f2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"328\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: ResearchGate<blockquote>来源：ResearchGate</blockquote> Overall, the rising applications of advanced automotive features and functionalities could spur the growth of the semiconductor market. For example, microcontrollers are used to&nbsp;control&nbsp;air conditioners, power windows, braking, headlights, and steering. Its adaptability and flexibility provide high performance and low power consumptions and the increasing demand for comfort, safety and fuel economic vehicles drives the automakers to introduce more microcontrollers. With increasing vehicle autonomy, advanced ADAS SoC chips will be increasingly crucial to enable seamless driverless vehicle performance. Furthermore, the rise of EV and AV could also spur the growth of LEDs for automotive interiors as automakers&nbsp;capitalize&nbsp;on the benefits of driverless vehicles providing passengers with more freedom and seek greater comfort and atmosphere through enhanced lighting.<blockquote>总体而言，先进汽车特性和功能的应用不断增加可能会刺激半导体市场的增长。例如，微控制器用于控制空调、电动车窗、制动、前灯和转向。它的适应性和灵活性提供了高性能和低功耗，对舒适性、安全性和燃油经济性车辆日益增长的需求促使汽车制造商引入更多的微控制器。随着车辆自主性的提高，先进的ADAS SoC芯片对于实现无缝无人驾驶车辆性能将变得越来越重要。此外，电动汽车和自动驾驶汽车的兴起也可能刺激汽车内饰LED的增长，因为汽车制造商利用无人驾驶汽车为乘客提供更多自由的优势，并通过增强照明寻求更大的舒适度和氛围。</blockquote> Automotive Microcontrollers<blockquote>汽车微控制器</blockquote> A microcontroller gathers input, processes this information, and outputs a certain action based on the information gathered. The&nbsp;increasing demand&nbsp;for comfort, safety and fuel economic vehicles drives the automakers to introduce microcontrollers. These new functions require local intelligence that can only be optimized using powerful microcontrollers. Microcontrollers ensure robust functionality in a harsh environment. Intense competition among automakers drives them to seek an innovative solution to differentiate their vehicles without compromising safety and cost. Microcontrollers in automobiles are present in large equipment to small devices and are used to manage air conditioners, power windows, braking, headlights, and steering. Microcontroller's adaptability and flexibility provide high performance and low power consumption and bring a revolutionary change in all aspects of the automobile industry.<blockquote>微控制器收集输入，处理这些信息，并根据收集的信息输出某个动作。对舒适性、安全性和燃油经济性车辆日益增长的需求促使汽车制造商引入微控制器。这些新功能需要本地智能，只有使用功能强大的微控制器才能进行优化。微控制器确保在恶劣环境下的强大功能。汽车制造商之间的激烈竞争促使他们寻求创新的解决方案，在不影响安全性和成本的情况下使其车辆与众不同。汽车中的微控制器存在于大型设备到小型设备中，用于管理空调、电动车窗、制动、前灯和转向。微控制器的适应性和灵活性提供了高性能和低功耗，给汽车工业的各个方面带来了革命性的变化。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b911a4f11ae85ef681eb11f30355e57f\" tg-width=\"575\" tg-height=\"249\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: ee News<blockquote>来源：ee新闻</blockquote> The communication in automobiles, which is established by&nbsp;various microcontrollers, has control over both fail-safe systems and automotive fault-tolerant systems, where the microcontrollers cannot only serve to respond to mishaps and faults that occur to the car (anti-lock brake interference, accelerator, and broken lights), but also to duplicate as secondary units that continuously check the car (anti-lock brake interference, accelerator, and broken lights). When the car tires slip on a snow-covered road, this is an example of fault tolerance. The incident elicited a response from the driver, but it was also detected by a sensor microcontroller, which engaged the anti-clock braking system when the driver slammed on the brakes.<blockquote>由各种微控制器建立的汽车中的通信具有对故障安全系统和汽车容错系统的控制，其中微控制器不仅可以用于响应发生在汽车上的事故和故障（防抱死制动干扰、加速器和损坏的灯），还可以作为连续检查汽车的辅助单元（防抱死制动干扰、加速器和损坏的灯）。当汽车轮胎在积雪路面打滑时，这就是容错的一个例子。该事件引起了驾驶员的反应，但也被传感器微控制器检测到，当驾驶员猛踩刹车时，传感器微控制器会接合逆时针制动系统。</blockquote> From 1998 to 2011, we estimate that the number of MCUs in an average vehicle has grown at a CAGR of 8.2% from&nbsp;18&nbsp;to&nbsp;over&nbsp;50 MCUs as functionalities and features rise and become more common such as airbags, steering, suspension, braking, body control functions and power train. Premium vehicles have greater adoption of advanced functionalities thus requiring greater MCUs. An electronic control unit (ECU) is an&nbsp;embedded systeminautomotive electronics&nbsp;that controls one or more of the&nbsp;electrical systems&nbsp;or subsystems in a vehicle with MCUs as the main chip of the system. For example, a BMW 7 series in 2018 is&nbsp;estimated&nbsp;to have over 150 ECUs than the same model in&nbsp;2014&nbsp;with 65 between 60 to 65 ECUs which translates to a CAGR of 23.3% in the period as more advanced functionalities were introduced such as stability management systems, GPS based navigation systems, By-wire steering and braking systems, voice recognition; collision warning systems. With the continued development of new technologies and adoption across vehicles, the MCU content per vehicle is expected to rise with new&nbsp;features&nbsp;such as blind-spot information system, reversing assistant, adaptive cruise control, active roll mitigation, night vision assist, driver fatigue alert, rear cross-traffic alert, etc.<blockquote>从1998年到2011年，我们估计，随着功能和特性的增加和变得更加普遍，如安全气囊、转向、悬架、制动、车身控制功能和动力传动系统，平均车辆中的MCU数量以8.2%的复合年增长率从18个MCU增长到超过50个MCU。高级车辆更多地采用了高级功能，因此需要更多的MCU。电子控制单元（ECU）是汽车电子设备中的嵌入式系统，它以MCU作为系统的主芯片来控制车辆中的一个或多个电气系统或子系统。例如，2018年的宝马7系估计拥有超过150个ECU，而2014年的同一车型有65个在60至65个ECU之间，这意味着在此期间的复合年增长率为23.3%，因为引入了更先进的功能，如稳定性管理系统、基于GPS的导航系统、线控转向和制动系统、语音识别；碰撞警告系统。随着新技术的不断发展和车辆的采用，每辆车的MCU含量预计将随着盲点信息系统、倒车辅助、自适应巡航控制、主动侧倾缓解、夜视辅助、驾驶员疲劳警报、后方交叉交通警报等新功能而上升。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3f3bd932a75f26d373639312813ed0a\" tg-width=\"903\" tg-height=\"332\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Elprocus, Kpit, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Elprocus、Kpit、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> The market players in the automotive microcontrollers market include Renesas (OTCPK:RNECF), NXP(NASDAQ:NXPI), Infineon (OTCQX:IFNNY), Texas Instruments (TXN) and Microchip Technology (MCHP). Renesas and NXP are the market leaders with former leverages on&nbsp;its dominant market share&nbsp;in MCU and its broad product portfolio. The latter offers comprehensive solutions for safe, connected vehicles and its S32G high-performance processor can significantly enhance calculated performance while simplifying software complexity. Infineon is a leader in the&nbsp;production&nbsp;of system-on-chip solutions for automotive applications using the C16x architecture and the award-winning 32-bit Tricore architecture. Texas Instruments leverages technology to introduce an&nbsp;all-encompassing solution. Microchip Technology has a wide&nbsp;breadth&nbsp;of a portfolio of automotive-grade microcontrollers (MCUs).<blockquote>汽车微控制器市场的市场参与者包括瑞萨(OTCPK：RNECF)、恩智浦(纳斯达克：NXPI)、英飞凌(OTCQX：IFNNY)、德州仪器(TXN)和微芯科技(MCHP)。瑞萨和恩智浦是市场领导者，之前凭借其在MCU领域的主导市场份额和广泛的产品组合。后者为安全、互联的车辆提供全面的解决方案，其S32G高性能处理器可以显著增强计算性能，同时简化软件复杂性。英飞凌是采用C16x架构和屡获殊荣的32位三核架构为汽车应用生产片上系统解决方案的领导者。德州仪器利用技术推出了全方位的解决方案。Microchip Technology拥有广泛的汽车级微控制器（MCU）产品组合。</blockquote> Market Share of Automotive Microcontrollers (2018 to 2020)<blockquote>图：车载微控制器市场份额（2018-2020）</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c907489e7885515f5dde40a5589e02d\" tg-width=\"905\" tg-height=\"529\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Infineon, Strategy Analytics<blockquote>资料来源：英飞凌、Strategy Analytics</blockquote> Based on the market share data from Strategy Analytics, Renesas and NXP are the top market leaders with market shares above 26% in 2020 respectively. However, competition is heating up as Infineon has gained market share to 16.9% in 2020 and 2019 as it acquired Cypress Semiconductors. The other companies trailing behind are Texas Instruments and Microchip. These companies cater to demand from leading automakers and Tier 1 suppliers listed in the table below. We see Infineon's strengths as having a wide customer base especially following its acquisition of Cypress in 2018 which further broadened its customer base to 11 automakers and Tier 1 manufacturers.<blockquote>根据Strategy Analytics的市场份额数据，瑞萨和恩智浦是最大的市场领导者，2020年的市场份额分别超过26%。然而，随着英飞凌收购赛普拉斯半导体，其市场份额在2020年和2019年达到16.9%，竞争正在加剧。其他落后的公司是德州仪器和Microchip。这些公司满足下表中列出的领先汽车制造商和一级供应商的需求。我们认为英飞凌的优势在于拥有广泛的客户群，特别是在2018年收购赛普拉斯之后，进一步将其客户群扩大到11家汽车制造商和一级制造商。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48fbaace4c7b6761af0363a866e6bedd\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"562\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Renesas, Dun &amp; Bradstreet, PRNewswire<blockquote>资料来源：瑞萨、邓白氏、美通社</blockquote> Top Pick: Infineon<blockquote>首选：英飞凌</blockquote> Infineon is a leader in the&nbsp;production&nbsp;of system-on-chip solutions for automotive applications using the C16x architecture and the award-winning 32-bit Tricore architecture. Infineon's product portfolio also includes infotainment-specific microcontrollers, Bluetooth, cellular and GPS controllers, as well as high-frequency ICs, power semiconductors, LEDs and optical transceivers. Following the acquisition of Cypress, it has expanded its MCU product offering spanning across the entire automotive stack.<blockquote>英飞凌是采用C16x架构和屡获殊荣的32位三核架构为汽车应用生产片上系统解决方案的领导者。英飞凌的产品组合还包括信息娱乐专用微控制器、蓝牙、蜂窝和GPS控制器，以及高频IC、功率半导体、LED和光收发器。收购赛普拉斯后，该公司扩大了其MCU产品范围，涵盖整个汽车堆栈。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d75b54014a53e0b8f82dca98e87ef933\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Infineon also recently developed its&nbsp;Traveo II Body microcontroller family. With this product family, Infineon can address a broad variety of automotive applications, including body control modules, door, window, sunroof and seat control units as well as in-cabin smartphone terminals and wireless charging units. This launch follows Infineon's acquisition of Cypress Semiconductor Corporation, which contributed to the product family. Infineon has also&nbsp;introduced&nbsp;its second-generation AURIX (TC3xx) microcontrollers. These are the first embedded safety controllers worldwide to be certified for the highest automotive safety integrity level (ASIL D). Moreover, with the&nbsp;commissioning&nbsp;of the fab in Villach that makes chips on large, 300 mm wafers, Infineon will add a twin to a similar plant in Dresden, Germany and thereby gain flexibility in production.<blockquote>英飞凌最近还开发了其Traveo II机身微控制器系列。凭借该产品系列，英飞凌可以解决各种汽车应用，包括车身控制模块、车门、车窗、天窗和座椅控制单元以及车内智能手机终端和无线充电单元。此次发布之前，英飞凌收购了赛普拉斯半导体公司，为该产品系列做出了贡献。英飞凌还推出了第二代AURIX（TC3xx）微控制器。这些是全球首款获得最高汽车安全完整性等级（ASIL D）认证的嵌入式安全控制器。此外，随着菲拉赫生产大型300毫米晶圆芯片的晶圆厂投产，英飞凌将在德国德累斯顿的类似工厂中增加一个孪生工厂，从而获得生产灵活性。</blockquote> Overall, the automotive MCU market consists of various top players with broad product developments and extensive customer bases. Though, we believe that Infineon is the best among the auto MCU suppliers following its acquisition of Cypress which expanded its product offerings across the entire automotive stack and it has key relationships with at least 4 of the top automakers and a large base of Tier 1 manufacturers. Based on our DCF valuation with a discount rate of 9.5% (company's WACC), our model shows an upside of 25.77%.<blockquote>总体而言，汽车MCU市场由拥有广泛产品开发和广泛客户群的各种顶级参与者组成。尽管如此，我们认为英飞凌在收购赛普拉斯后是汽车MCU供应商中最好的，赛普拉斯将其产品范围扩展到整个汽车堆栈，并且与至少4家顶级汽车制造商和大量一级制造商建立了重要关系。根据我们贴现率为9.5%（公司WACC）的DCF估值，我们的模型显示上涨空间为25.77%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5491210e96a9150a8992683064b88cf1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：卡文投资</blockquote> ADAS Soc<blockquote>ADAS Soc</blockquote> The growth of the automotive vehicles market is&nbsp;attributed&nbsp;to the rising number of benefits offered by an unmanned vehicle as compared to traditional vehicles such as reduced road-crash risk, enhanced safety &amp; security, elimination in driver wages, secured mobility for disabled individuals and non-drivers, and increased comfort and flexibility offered by seamless operative systems. Autonomous vehicles are&nbsp;expected&nbsp;to account for about 12% of vehicles by 2030 representing an average annual growth rate of 73.2% by 2030. Assuming that 1 ADAS per vehicle, we assume that the annual growth rate for ADAS to be also at 73.2%.<blockquote>与传统车辆相比，汽车市场的增长归因于无人驾驶车辆提供的越来越多的好处，例如降低道路碰撞风险、增强安全性、消除驾驶员工资、确保残疾人和非驾驶员的移动性，以及无缝操作系统提供的增加的舒适性和灵活性。预计到2030年，自动驾驶汽车将占汽车的12%左右，到2030年的年均增长率为73.2%。假设每辆车有1个ADAS，我们假设ADAS的年增长率也为73.2%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b99fb755a24c9d43dda9f1b6776a252\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen投资</blockquote> The role of ADAS is to prevent accidents and injuries through more sophisticated vehicle systems. Essential safety-critical ADAS applications include pedestrian detection/avoidance, lane departure warning/correction, traffic sign recognition, automatic emergency braking, blind-spot detection, etc. These systems incorporate the latest interface standards and running multiple vision-based algorithms to support real-time multimedia, vision co-processing, and sensor fusion subsystems. With increasing autonomous capabilities and complexities, more advanced&nbsp;SoCs&nbsp;are required. Hardware designs are becoming increasingly complex and using more advanced nodes to meet performance requirements, its main role is to connect sensors to actuators through interfaces and high-performance ECUs (electronic controller units). The degree of self-driving capabilities is separated into 5 levels.<blockquote>ADAS的作用是通过更复杂的车辆系统来防止事故和伤害。基本的安全关键ADAS应用包括行人检测/避让、车道偏离警告/校正、交通标志识别、自动紧急制动、盲点检测等。这些系统结合了最新的接口标准，并运行多种基于视觉的算法，以支持实时多媒体、视觉协同处理和传感器融合子系统。随着自主能力和复杂性的增加，需要更先进的SoC。硬件设计变得越来越复杂，并使用更先进的节点来满足性能要求，其主要作用是通过接口和高性能ECU（电子控制器单元）将传感器连接到执行器。自动驾驶能力的程度分为5个等级。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb74874b41b27ac551840247b4d80ec9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Synopsys<blockquote>资料来源：新思科技</blockquote> Vehicles capable of sensing their environment with the increasing shift towards higher vehicle autonomy requires an&nbsp;increase&nbsp;in the electronic architecture of these vehicles. New integrated domain controllers require higher computing performance, better power efficiency and smaller forms. Mobileye was acquired by Intel (INTC) in 2017 and is developing its EyeQ product line while Qualcomm (QCOM) is trying to expand its presence in the market with the introduction of its Snapdragon Ride Platform. Though, we believe that Nvidia (NVDA) has several advantages over competitors in terms of anticipated performance and product roadmap and securing design wins across major automakers and Tier 1 suppliers.<blockquote>随着越来越多地转向更高的车辆自主性，能够感测其环境的车辆需要增加这些车辆的电子架构。新型集成域控制器需要更高的计算性能、更好的电源效率和更小的外形。Mobileye于2017年被英特尔(INTC)收购，正在开发其EyeQ产品线，而高通(QCOM)则试图通过推出Snapdragon Ride平台来扩大其在市场上的影响力。尽管如此，我们认为英伟达(NVDA)在预期性能和产品路线图以及确保主要汽车制造商和一级供应商的设计胜利方面比竞争对手具有多项优势。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff5211e4a065a23e7883e65a2a48edbd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Company data, Research and Markets, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：公司数据、研究和市场、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> Top pick: Nvidia<blockquote>首选：英伟达</blockquote> Nvidia's product development with its Nvidia Drive lineup has been impressive. It&nbsp;introduced&nbsp;the Drive AGX Orin software-defined platform for L5 autonomous driving in 2019 with nearly 7x greater performance than previous-gen Xavier SoCs delivering over 2,000 TOPS with the integration of its GPU solutions. It is expected to begin mass production in 2022 based on Samsung's 8nm process. NVIDIA DRIVE ADAS platform is powered by Orin SoCs for active safety, automated driving, parking applications and AI cockpit capabilities. In comparison with Mobileye's EyeQ 5, the performance achieved is believed to be 24 TOPS but at a lower power consumption of 10 W than Nvidia's 750 W power consumption whereas Qualcomm's Snapdragon&nbsp;platform&nbsp;scales from 30 TOPS for L1/L2 to 700 TOPS at 130W for L4/L5.<blockquote>Nvidia的Nvidia Drive系列产品开发令人印象深刻。它于2019年推出了用于L5自动驾驶的Drive AGX Orin软件定义平台，其性能比上一代Xavier SoC提高了近7倍，通过集成其GPU解决方案，可提供超过2,000个TOPS。预计将于2022年基于三星8nm工艺开始量产。NVIDIA DRIVE ADAS平台由Orin SoC提供支持，用于主动安全、自动驾驶、停车应用和AI座舱功能。与Mobileye的EyeQ 5相比，实现的性能被认为是24 TOPS，但功耗比Nvidia的750 W功耗低10 W，而高通的骁龙平台从L1/L2的30 TOPS扩展到L4/L5的130 W的700 TOPS。</blockquote> Moreover, another advantage that Nvidia has is its growing adoption of its SoCs by leading automakers. The company has 44 cars and 13 trucks Nvidia Drive partners as well as several robotaxi, Tier 1 suppliers, sensor and software partners. For example, it counts on Toyota and Mercedes Benz as two of the top automakers globally. Also, Volvo Cars, Zoox and SAIC are among the growing number of leading companies&nbsp;using&nbsp;the newest NVIDIA Drive solutions for their autonomous vehicles. Nvidia's automotive design win&nbsp;pipeline&nbsp;stood at $8 bln over the next 6 years. Whereas, Mobileye is&nbsp;active&nbsp;in 49 production programs across over 25 OEMs with key partners such as BMW, Geely (OTCPK:GELYF) and Ford.<blockquote>此外，英伟达的另一个优势是领先的汽车制造商越来越多地采用其SoC。该公司拥有44辆汽车和13辆卡车Nvidia Drive合作伙伴以及多家robotaxi、一级供应商、传感器和软件合作伙伴。例如，它将丰田和梅赛德斯奔驰视为全球两家顶级汽车制造商。此外，沃尔沃汽车、Zoox和上汽集团等越来越多的领先公司在其自动驾驶汽车中使用最新的NVIDIA Drive解决方案。未来6年，Nvidia的汽车设计win管道将达到80亿美元。鉴于Mobileye与宝马、吉利(OTCPK：GELYF)和福特等主要合作伙伴积极参与超过25家原始设备制造商的49个生产项目。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfffa1e1393ae33207769eb7245a36cd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"320\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Nvidia<blockquote>资料来源：英伟达</blockquote> Overall, despite Intel's current market leadership, we believe Nvidia to be the most promising in advanced ADAS SoCs due to its extensive partnerships with major automakers including Toyota, Mercedes Benz and Volvo and has 53 Nvidia DRIVE partners as well as Tier 1 manufacturers and software providers. Moreover, its touted Orin SoC appears to be highly promising with an impressive performance of up to 700 TOPs. As in our&nbsp;previous&nbsp;analysis on Nvidia, we valued the company based on a P/S valuation. Automotive accounts for only around 3% of revenues in FY2020 but we expect it to grow to above 8% of revenues by 2025 at a CAGR of 73.2% based on our projections of AV growth. Additionally, our base case assumes a 50% probability based on its continued progress to complete the Arm deal but also the regulatory approval headwinds. Moreover, we assume 100% of our derived synergies for the combined company to be realized through the acquisition.<blockquote>总体而言，尽管英特尔目前处于市场领先地位，但我们认为Nvidia是先进ADAS SoC领域最有前途的公司，因为它与丰田、奔驰和沃尔沃等主要汽车制造商建立了广泛的合作伙伴关系，并拥有53家Nvidia DRIVE合作伙伴以及一级制造商和软件提供商。此外，其吹捧的Orin SoC似乎非常有前途，具有高达700 TOPs的令人印象深刻的性能。正如我们之前对英伟达的分析一样，我们根据市盈率估值对该公司进行估值。2020财年，汽车仅占收入的3%左右，但根据我们对汽车增长的预测，我们预计到2025年，汽车将以73.2%的复合年增长率增长至收入的8%以上。此外，根据其完成Arm交易的持续进展以及监管批准的阻力，我们的基本案例假设有50%的概率。此外，我们假设合并后公司100%的协同效应将通过收购实现。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ecd026760c8c0853a1334b32e841b08\" tg-width=\"725\" tg-height=\"680\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：卡文投资</blockquote> Our 1-year average price target for the bear, base and bull case is $271.34.50, $289.40, $318.22 with of an upside of 21.2%, 29.2% and 42.1%<blockquote>我们对熊市、基础市和牛市的1年平均目标价为271.34.50美元、289.40美元、318.22美元，上涨空间为21.2%、29.2%和42.1%</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5ed64560aab637c2118f9752bad164f\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"354\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：卡文投资</blockquote> Auto LEDs<blockquote>自动发光二极管</blockquote> An LED is a diode that converts electrical energy into light. LEDs are almost 90% more&nbsp;efficient&nbsp;compared with halogen and incandescent lights due to their high-power efficiency and long-lasting nature. Rising demand for LEDs in vehicles is driven by&nbsp;stricter&nbsp;road safety regulations on vehicle lighting to promote passenger safety. The key advantages of LEDs are its design&nbsp;flexibility&nbsp;offered to automakers to accentuate their vehicle designs. Examples of applications where LEDs can be used are headlamps (high and low beam), brake lights, rear combination lamps, centre high mount stop lamps, daytime running lamps (DRLs), turn signals, interior reading lights (map lights), dome lights, accent lights, fog lamps, and position and marker lamps. Also, interior lighting is another area that could provide tremendous opportunities for LED adoption such as in ambient lighting, dashboard and instrument lighting. According to TrendForce, the LED&nbsp;penetration rate&nbsp;for cars has reached 53.1% in 2020 with the LED penetration rate for electric cars at 85% in 2020 and are likely to hit 60% and 90% in 2021 respectively. Besides that, the total number of LEDs for exterior and&nbsp;interior&nbsp;is expected to grow to 330 per vehicle in 2021 compared to 200 in 2019 and representing a CAGR of 28.45% with the additional innovative features. From 2010 to 2019, we estimate the CAGR to be around 16.65% from 50 LEDs per vehicle to 200 in 2019. Though, advancements in manufacturing processes are&nbsp;attributed&nbsp;to the declining ASPs of LEDs which has declined at a CAGR of -12% between 2010 to 2020. We expect that the continued advancement in LED manufacturing to result in declining ASPs by&nbsp;around&nbsp;a 5% CAGR by until 2030.<blockquote>LED是一种将电能转化为光的二极管。由于其高功率效率和持久的特性，LED比卤素灯和白炽灯的效率高出近90%。为了促进乘客安全，对车辆照明的更严格的道路安全法规推动了车辆对LED的需求不断增长。LED的主要优势是其设计灵活性，为汽车制造商提供了突出其车辆设计的优势。可以使用LED的应用的示例是前照灯(远光灯和近光灯)、制动灯、后组合灯、中央高位刹车灯、日间行车灯(DRL)、转向信号、内部阅读灯(地图灯)、顶灯、重点灯、雾灯以及位置和标记灯。此外，室内照明是另一个可以为LED采用提供巨大机会的领域，例如环境照明、仪表板和仪表照明。根据TrendForce的数据，2020年汽车LED渗透率已达到53.1%，2020年电动汽车LED渗透率为85%，并可能分别达到60%和90%。除此之外，预计2021年每辆车的外部和内部LED总数将从2019年的200个增长到330个，加上额外的创新功能，复合年增长率为28.45%。从2010年到2019年，我们估计CAGR约为16.65%，从每辆车50个LED增加到2019年的200个。尽管如此，制造工艺的进步归因于LED平均售价的下降，2010年至2020年间，LED平均售价的复合年增长率为-12%。我们预计，到2030年，LED制造的持续进步将导致平均售价复合年增长率下降约5%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5531a72a1ca25f9d3e69cff8f7c6fa2f\" tg-width=\"902\" tg-height=\"440\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: LED Professional, Osram, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：LED Professional、欧司朗、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a44120f579bede210dd5d2b592cf21fe\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"729\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Osram<blockquote>资料来源：欧司朗</blockquote> Top pick: Osram ('ams')<blockquote>首选：欧司朗（“ams”）</blockquote> In 2020, the key market leaders in the automotive LED market are Osram, Nichia and Lumileds which together accounted for 71.8% of the total market. Osram has consistently maintained its market leadership since 2018 as the number one player in LED packages with a market share of 36% in 2020 from 34.4% in the prior year. Based in Japan, Nichia is a top producer of LED packages which are&nbsp;characterized&nbsp;by high efficiency, flexible cluster configurations, and high luminous flux density. The company is a&nbsp;partner&nbsp;of Infineon and are also&nbsp;developing&nbsp;microLED technologies through a partnership. It&nbsp;claims&nbsp;that its new LED matrix will offer 180 times greater resolution than comparable solutions currently available. Furthermore, Lumileds is the third-largest LED chip company with a market share of 12.2% in 2020. The company is affiliated with Philips Lighting which serves&nbsp;automakers&nbsp;including Citroen, Ford, Kia (OTCPK:KIMTF), Tesla and Volkswagen. It also&nbsp;offers&nbsp;retrofitted LEDs to the German market allowing drivers to upgrade their headlights from halogen to Philips LED for safer driving.<blockquote>2020年，汽车LED市场的主要市场领导者是欧司朗、日亚和Lumileds，合计占总市场的71.8%。自2018年以来，欧司朗一直保持其市场领导地位，成为LED封装领域的第一大参与者，市场份额从前一年的34.4%上升到2020年的36%。Nichia总部位于日本，是LED封装的顶级生产商，其特点是高效率、灵活的集群配置和高光通量密度。该公司是英飞凌的合作伙伴，也在通过合作开发microLED技术。它声称其新的LED矩阵将提供比目前可用的同类解决方案高180倍的分辨率。此外，Lumileds是第三大LED芯片公司，2020年市场份额为12.2%。该公司隶属于飞利浦照明，飞利浦照明为雪铁龙、福特、起亚(OTCPK：KIMTF)、特斯拉和大众等汽车制造商提供服务。它还向德国市场提供改装的LED，允许驾驶员将前灯从卤素灯升级为飞利浦LED灯，以实现更安全的驾驶。</blockquote> Though, we favor Osram as the leading LED supplier due to its solid market leadership, continuous product development and integration opportunities with ams'(OTCPK:AMSSY)optoelectrical solutions. Based in Germany and with a history of more than 100 years, Osram counts on the major German automakers with the likes of&nbsp;Volkswagen, BMW, Audi as partners.<blockquote>不过，我们看好欧司朗作为领先的LED供应商，因为其稳固的市场领导地位、持续的产品开发以及与艾迈斯半导体(OTCPK：AMSSY)光电解决方案的集成机会。欧司朗总部位于德国，拥有100多年的历史，与大众、宝马、奥迪等德国主要汽车制造商合作。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9427d1c021dd4379f16758773c04f83d\" tg-width=\"629\" tg-height=\"416\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: LEDInside<blockquote>资料来源：LEDInside</blockquote> The company has a broad product portfolio of LED technologies for various aspects of vehicle lighting. It has&nbsp;collaborated&nbsp;with these automakers in product development such as with laser headlight technology as seen in the BMW i8 and the Audi (OTCPK:AUDVF) R8 LMX. Moreover, the company launched microLED developments and its Evyios hybrid headlamp module with 25,600&nbsp;pixels&nbsp;based on MicroLED technology. For more conventional LEDs, Osram's products are also&nbsp;used&nbsp;by its customers such as in the Audi A8.<blockquote>该公司拥有广泛的LED技术产品组合，适用于车辆照明的各个方面。它与这些汽车制造商在产品开发方面进行了合作，例如宝马i8和奥迪(OTCPK：AUDVF)R8 LMX中的激光头灯技术。此外，该公司还推出了microLED developments及其基于MicroLED技术的25,600像素的Evyios混合头灯模块。对于更传统的LED，欧司朗的产品也被其客户使用，例如奥迪A8。</blockquote> The business integration between ams and Osram is underway following the completion of the acquisition by ams. The combined company is running a broad set of programs to drive the creation of synergies and optimize its combined business portfolio. In terms of product innovation from the combined business, management has announced that portfolio alignment is in progress. The combined company possesses an outstanding technological and IP strength with over 15,000 patents. The integration of optics technologies, illumination and sensing across multiple active developments creates emerging opportunities in the automotive segment with a significant development focus including next-gen automotive lighting technology such as highly pixelated headlights and head-up display integrating AR to assist the driver and increase road safety. In addition, the company is also focusing on autonomous driving technologies with LIDAR and ADAS. The combination of ams and Osram edge-emitting laser and VCSEL capabilities for different LIDAR architectures put it in a unique position with a broad portfolio and leveraging the larger customer base of the combined firm.<blockquote>在艾迈斯半导体完成收购后，艾迈斯半导体和欧司朗之间的业务整合正在进行中。合并后的公司正在运行一系列广泛的计划，以推动协同效应的产生并优化其合并后的业务组合。在合并后业务的产品创新方面，管理层宣布产品组合调整正在进行中。合并后的公司拥有卓越的技术和知识产权实力，拥有超过15,000项专利。光学技术、照明和传感在多个活跃开发中的集成在汽车领域创造了新兴的机会，其重要的开发重点包括下一代汽车照明技术，如高度像素化的前灯和平视显示器，以帮助驾驶员并提高道路安全。此外，该公司还专注于激光雷达和ADAS的自动驾驶技术。艾迈斯半导体和欧司朗针对不同激光雷达架构的边缘发射激光器和VCSEL功能的结合使其处于独特的地位，拥有广泛的产品组合并利用合并后公司更大的客户群。</blockquote> Overall, we believe that Osram which is owned by AMS to be the most promising LED chipmaker due to its solid market leadership as the leading player and exciting product development spanning across various LED technologies. Not to mention, we previouslyanalyzed the integration benefits between Osram and AMS' sensor resulting in a massive portfolio of product patents with key developments in LiDAR and microLEDs for EV and AV. Based on our DCF valuation with a discount rate of 7.1% (company's WACC), our model shows an upside of 28.65%.<blockquote>总体而言，我们相信艾迈斯半导体旗下的欧司朗是最有前途的LED芯片制造商，因为其作为领先参与者的稳固市场领导地位以及跨越各种LED技术的令人兴奋的产品开发。更不用说，我们之前分析了欧司朗和艾迈斯半导体传感器之间的集成优势，从而产生了大量的产品专利组合，其中包括用于电动汽车和AV的激光雷达和MicroLED的关键开发。根据我们贴现率为7.1%（公司WACC）的DCF估值，我们的模型显示上涨空间为28.65%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ece55afb466744e5a00c6d4bf205184e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：卡文投资</blockquote> Verdict<blockquote>裁决</blockquote> Despite the flattish growth outlook of automotive sales in units at a projected rate of 1.24%, the rising semiconductor content in vehicles driven by the rising adoption of modern vehicle features and functionalities for safety, entertainment and connectivity bodes well for the semiconductor players. For example, we expect that with increasing vehicle functionality and more complex electronic systems in vehicles, the rise of MCU content in vehicles could continue at a long-term CAGR of 11.18%. With an extensive portfolio across the automotive stack, we believe Infineon could be a prime beneficiary of the growth opportunity with many relationships with automakers and Tier 1 suppliers. Moreover, the future rise of autonomous vehicle capability is expected is to drive demand for advanced ADAS SoCs in vehicles and we projected AV sales to grow by an average annual rate of 73.2% to 2030. Nvidia has extensive client wins of Nvidia Drive partners with a strong portfolio and roadmap. Lastly, we expect the rising LED adoption and content growth in both vehicle interior and exterior with a projected market growth rate of 12.9% to 2030 to benefit companies like Osram as our top pick as the leading LED chip supplier with key relationships in the German automobile industry and integration opportunities with ams. Overall, we rate Infineon as aBuywith a target price of&nbsp;$54.37, Nvidia as a Buy with a target price of&nbsp;$289.40&nbsp;and ams AG as a&nbsp;Buy&nbsp;with a target price of&nbsp;$12.53.<blockquote>尽管汽车销量增长前景平缓，预计增长率为1.24%，但由于安全、娱乐和连接方面的现代汽车特性和功能的采用不断增加，汽车中半导体含量的上升对半导体企业来说是个好兆头。例如，我们预计，随着车辆功能的增加和车辆中更复杂的电子系统，车辆中MCU含量的增长可能会以11.18%的长期复合年增长率继续增长。凭借在汽车领域的广泛产品组合，我们相信英飞凌可能是增长机会的主要受益者，与汽车制造商和一级供应商建立了许多关系。此外，未来自动驾驶汽车能力的提升预计将推动汽车对先进ADAS SoC的需求，我们预计到2030年，自动驾驶汽车销量将以年均73.2%的速度增长。Nvidia凭借强大的产品组合和路线图赢得了Nvidia Drive合作伙伴的广泛客户。最后，我们预计LED在汽车内部和外部的采用率和内容增长（预计到2030年市场增长率为12.9%）将使欧司朗等公司受益，欧司朗是我们作为领先LED芯片供应商的首选，在德国汽车行业拥有重要关系以及与ams的整合机会。总体而言，我们将英飞凌评为购买目标价为$54.37、英伟达给予买入评级，目标价为$289.40和ams AG作为购买目标价为$12.53.</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad4fb0b3fa547a13a5131717eee6c47e\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"354\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4458577-top-3-automotive-semiconductor-stocks-to-buy\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达","IFNNF":"Infineon Technologies AG","OSAGF":"Osram Licht AG"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4458577-top-3-automotive-semiconductor-stocks-to-buy","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117147045","content_text":"Summary\n\nDespite the automotive market being at a mature stage with average vehicle unit sales growth projected at 1.24% annually to 2030, we find the use of semiconductor chips in vehicles.\nAutomotive MCUs are essential in various vehicle electronic systems and are forecasted to grow at a long-term CAGR of 11.18% based on the 20-year average.\nThe rise of autonomous vehicles is expected to spur demand for complex and advanced ADAS SoCs with autonomous vehicle unit growth projected to grow at a 73.9% average rate.\nFinally, automakers are incorporating more LEDs in their designs and to meet rising regulatory requirements as LED content grew at a CAGR of 18.8%.\n\nSource: Company Logos\nSemiconductors are used in all types of electronic devices across multiple applications. Automotive accounts for 10% of the semiconductor market. Although the outlook of vehicle sales in terms of unit sales growth is flattish as the average vehicle age continue to rise due to increased reliability and better maintenance capabilities as well as the rise of alternative transportation modes such as the emergence of ride-sharing, semiconductor growth is still expected to be strong driven by rising automotive features and functionalities across safety, infotainment, connectivity and automation. In this analysis, we analyzed the trends of rising chip content per vehicle across the automotive MCU, ADAS SoC and LED chips with the evolution of technological advancements which is a continuous trend across centuries since the invention of the automobile. The global vehicle sales growth has averaged at 1.9% since 2011. Among several factors driving growth includes rising GDP per capita of 2.1% on average in the past 10 years. We estimate the GDP per capita to rise by 2.7% until 2030 based on global GDP and population growth forecasts.\nSource: OCIA, MacroTrends, Khaveen Investments\nAlthough GDP per capita is rising, vehicle sales have been diverging from GDP growth as the average age of vehicles is also increasing to 11.85 years in 2020 worldwide on average. Vehicle owners are more comfortable holding cars longer because cars are more reliable than in the past and vehicle service contracts and other insurance products mitigate repair costs. IHS Markit predicts that the average vehicle age to continue rising, we expect this to be negative to vehicle growth as consumers hold on to their vehicles longer.\nSource: WolfStreet, Statista\nMoreover, we also expect the rise of the ride-sharing market to weigh on vehicle sales growth as people opt for alternative modes of transport. We assumed that the expected rise of ridesharing drivers to affect vehicle sales based on studies from MDPI which indicates that between 2 to 4.5 of vehicles could be replaced per ridesharing driver, Thus, we accounted for this trend in our projections by estimating the number of global ridesharing drivers at 14.2 mln and increasing by an average rate of 4.8% annually through 2030. Overall, we expect the vehicle unit sales growth to remain flattish beyond 2022 and derived a projected vehicle growth rate of 1.24% from 2023 to 2030.\n* E = B x C;A = E - F.Source: OCIA, Statista, MacroTrends, Khaveen Investments\nSource: OCIA, Statista, MacroTrends, Khaveen Investments\nIn 2020, the top automaker by sales is tabulated below with Toyota and Volkswagen as the top 2 leading automakers in the world. These automakers have set targets to produce more electric vehicles for example BMW (OTCPK:BMWYY) is pushing for 15% to 25% of sales to be electric vehicles by 2025 while Honda (HMC) is striving for two thirds by 2030.\nTop Automakers in the World (2020)\nSource: OICA\nSource: OICA\nThe chart below shows the timeline for the deployment of advanced driver assistance systems with the vision of fully automated driving. The increasing adoption of more advanced features and functionalities are key for semiconductor growth as more content is required to power more complex electronics. Since the 1980s, the number of technologies and functionalities that provides an enhanced driving experience has increased with the rise of features such as ABS, adaptive cruise control, blind-spot warning, collision warnings, etc. In the future, more functionalities and support are expected to be adopted in vehicles like automated parking, on-demand mobility and even fully autonomous vehicles.\nSource: ResearchGate\nOverall, the rising applications of advanced automotive features and functionalities could spur the growth of the semiconductor market. For example, microcontrollers are used to control air conditioners, power windows, braking, headlights, and steering. Its adaptability and flexibility provide high performance and low power consumptions and the increasing demand for comfort, safety and fuel economic vehicles drives the automakers to introduce more microcontrollers. With increasing vehicle autonomy, advanced ADAS SoC chips will be increasingly crucial to enable seamless driverless vehicle performance. Furthermore, the rise of EV and AV could also spur the growth of LEDs for automotive interiors as automakers capitalize on the benefits of driverless vehicles providing passengers with more freedom and seek greater comfort and atmosphere through enhanced lighting.\nAutomotive Microcontrollers\nA microcontroller gathers input, processes this information, and outputs a certain action based on the information gathered. The increasing demand for comfort, safety and fuel economic vehicles drives the automakers to introduce microcontrollers. These new functions require local intelligence that can only be optimized using powerful microcontrollers. Microcontrollers ensure robust functionality in a harsh environment. Intense competition among automakers drives them to seek an innovative solution to differentiate their vehicles without compromising safety and cost. Microcontrollers in automobiles are present in large equipment to small devices and are used to manage air conditioners, power windows, braking, headlights, and steering. Microcontroller's adaptability and flexibility provide high performance and low power consumption and bring a revolutionary change in all aspects of the automobile industry.\nSource: ee News\nThe communication in automobiles, which is established by various microcontrollers, has control over both fail-safe systems and automotive fault-tolerant systems, where the microcontrollers cannot only serve to respond to mishaps and faults that occur to the car (anti-lock brake interference, accelerator, and broken lights), but also to duplicate as secondary units that continuously check the car (anti-lock brake interference, accelerator, and broken lights). When the car tires slip on a snow-covered road, this is an example of fault tolerance. The incident elicited a response from the driver, but it was also detected by a sensor microcontroller, which engaged the anti-clock braking system when the driver slammed on the brakes.\nFrom 1998 to 2011, we estimate that the number of MCUs in an average vehicle has grown at a CAGR of 8.2% from 18 to over 50 MCUs as functionalities and features rise and become more common such as airbags, steering, suspension, braking, body control functions and power train. Premium vehicles have greater adoption of advanced functionalities thus requiring greater MCUs. An electronic control unit (ECU) is an embedded systeminautomotive electronics that controls one or more of the electrical systems or subsystems in a vehicle with MCUs as the main chip of the system. For example, a BMW 7 series in 2018 is estimated to have over 150 ECUs than the same model in 2014 with 65 between 60 to 65 ECUs which translates to a CAGR of 23.3% in the period as more advanced functionalities were introduced such as stability management systems, GPS based navigation systems, By-wire steering and braking systems, voice recognition; collision warning systems. With the continued development of new technologies and adoption across vehicles, the MCU content per vehicle is expected to rise with new features such as blind-spot information system, reversing assistant, adaptive cruise control, active roll mitigation, night vision assist, driver fatigue alert, rear cross-traffic alert, etc.\nSource: Elprocus, Kpit, Khaveen Investments\nThe market players in the automotive microcontrollers market include Renesas (OTCPK:RNECF), NXP(NASDAQ:NXPI), Infineon (OTCQX:IFNNY), Texas Instruments (TXN) and Microchip Technology (MCHP). Renesas and NXP are the market leaders with former leverages on its dominant market share in MCU and its broad product portfolio. The latter offers comprehensive solutions for safe, connected vehicles and its S32G high-performance processor can significantly enhance calculated performance while simplifying software complexity. Infineon is a leader in the production of system-on-chip solutions for automotive applications using the C16x architecture and the award-winning 32-bit Tricore architecture. Texas Instruments leverages technology to introduce an all-encompassing solution. Microchip Technology has a wide breadth of a portfolio of automotive-grade microcontrollers (MCUs).\nMarket Share of Automotive Microcontrollers (2018 to 2020)\nSource: Infineon, Strategy Analytics\nBased on the market share data from Strategy Analytics, Renesas and NXP are the top market leaders with market shares above 26% in 2020 respectively. However, competition is heating up as Infineon has gained market share to 16.9% in 2020 and 2019 as it acquired Cypress Semiconductors. The other companies trailing behind are Texas Instruments and Microchip. These companies cater to demand from leading automakers and Tier 1 suppliers listed in the table below. We see Infineon's strengths as having a wide customer base especially following its acquisition of Cypress in 2018 which further broadened its customer base to 11 automakers and Tier 1 manufacturers.\nSource: Renesas, Dun & Bradstreet, PRNewswire\nTop Pick: Infineon\nInfineon is a leader in the production of system-on-chip solutions for automotive applications using the C16x architecture and the award-winning 32-bit Tricore architecture. Infineon's product portfolio also includes infotainment-specific microcontrollers, Bluetooth, cellular and GPS controllers, as well as high-frequency ICs, power semiconductors, LEDs and optical transceivers. Following the acquisition of Cypress, it has expanded its MCU product offering spanning across the entire automotive stack.\n\nInfineon also recently developed its Traveo II Body microcontroller family. With this product family, Infineon can address a broad variety of automotive applications, including body control modules, door, window, sunroof and seat control units as well as in-cabin smartphone terminals and wireless charging units. This launch follows Infineon's acquisition of Cypress Semiconductor Corporation, which contributed to the product family. Infineon has also introduced its second-generation AURIX (TC3xx) microcontrollers. These are the first embedded safety controllers worldwide to be certified for the highest automotive safety integrity level (ASIL D). Moreover, with the commissioning of the fab in Villach that makes chips on large, 300 mm wafers, Infineon will add a twin to a similar plant in Dresden, Germany and thereby gain flexibility in production.\nOverall, the automotive MCU market consists of various top players with broad product developments and extensive customer bases. Though, we believe that Infineon is the best among the auto MCU suppliers following its acquisition of Cypress which expanded its product offerings across the entire automotive stack and it has key relationships with at least 4 of the top automakers and a large base of Tier 1 manufacturers. Based on our DCF valuation with a discount rate of 9.5% (company's WACC), our model shows an upside of 25.77%.\nSource: Khaveen Investments\nADAS Soc\nThe growth of the automotive vehicles market is attributed to the rising number of benefits offered by an unmanned vehicle as compared to traditional vehicles such as reduced road-crash risk, enhanced safety & security, elimination in driver wages, secured mobility for disabled individuals and non-drivers, and increased comfort and flexibility offered by seamless operative systems. Autonomous vehicles are expected to account for about 12% of vehicles by 2030 representing an average annual growth rate of 73.2% by 2030. Assuming that 1 ADAS per vehicle, we assume that the annual growth rate for ADAS to be also at 73.2%.\nSource: Statista, Khaveen Investments\nThe role of ADAS is to prevent accidents and injuries through more sophisticated vehicle systems. Essential safety-critical ADAS applications include pedestrian detection/avoidance, lane departure warning/correction, traffic sign recognition, automatic emergency braking, blind-spot detection, etc. These systems incorporate the latest interface standards and running multiple vision-based algorithms to support real-time multimedia, vision co-processing, and sensor fusion subsystems. With increasing autonomous capabilities and complexities, more advanced SoCs are required. Hardware designs are becoming increasingly complex and using more advanced nodes to meet performance requirements, its main role is to connect sensors to actuators through interfaces and high-performance ECUs (electronic controller units). The degree of self-driving capabilities is separated into 5 levels.\nSource: Synopsys\nVehicles capable of sensing their environment with the increasing shift towards higher vehicle autonomy requires an increase in the electronic architecture of these vehicles. New integrated domain controllers require higher computing performance, better power efficiency and smaller forms. Mobileye was acquired by Intel (INTC) in 2017 and is developing its EyeQ product line while Qualcomm (QCOM) is trying to expand its presence in the market with the introduction of its Snapdragon Ride Platform. Though, we believe that Nvidia (NVDA) has several advantages over competitors in terms of anticipated performance and product roadmap and securing design wins across major automakers and Tier 1 suppliers.\nSource: Company data, Research and Markets, Khaveen Investments\nTop pick: Nvidia\nNvidia's product development with its Nvidia Drive lineup has been impressive. It introduced the Drive AGX Orin software-defined platform for L5 autonomous driving in 2019 with nearly 7x greater performance than previous-gen Xavier SoCs delivering over 2,000 TOPS with the integration of its GPU solutions. It is expected to begin mass production in 2022 based on Samsung's 8nm process. NVIDIA DRIVE ADAS platform is powered by Orin SoCs for active safety, automated driving, parking applications and AI cockpit capabilities. In comparison with Mobileye's EyeQ 5, the performance achieved is believed to be 24 TOPS but at a lower power consumption of 10 W than Nvidia's 750 W power consumption whereas Qualcomm's Snapdragon platform scales from 30 TOPS for L1/L2 to 700 TOPS at 130W for L4/L5.\nMoreover, another advantage that Nvidia has is its growing adoption of its SoCs by leading automakers. The company has 44 cars and 13 trucks Nvidia Drive partners as well as several robotaxi, Tier 1 suppliers, sensor and software partners. For example, it counts on Toyota and Mercedes Benz as two of the top automakers globally. Also, Volvo Cars, Zoox and SAIC are among the growing number of leading companies using the newest NVIDIA Drive solutions for their autonomous vehicles. Nvidia's automotive design win pipeline stood at $8 bln over the next 6 years. Whereas, Mobileye is active in 49 production programs across over 25 OEMs with key partners such as BMW, Geely (OTCPK:GELYF) and Ford.\nSource: Nvidia\nOverall, despite Intel's current market leadership, we believe Nvidia to be the most promising in advanced ADAS SoCs due to its extensive partnerships with major automakers including Toyota, Mercedes Benz and Volvo and has 53 Nvidia DRIVE partners as well as Tier 1 manufacturers and software providers. Moreover, its touted Orin SoC appears to be highly promising with an impressive performance of up to 700 TOPs. As in our previous analysis on Nvidia, we valued the company based on a P/S valuation. Automotive accounts for only around 3% of revenues in FY2020 but we expect it to grow to above 8% of revenues by 2025 at a CAGR of 73.2% based on our projections of AV growth. Additionally, our base case assumes a 50% probability based on its continued progress to complete the Arm deal but also the regulatory approval headwinds. Moreover, we assume 100% of our derived synergies for the combined company to be realized through the acquisition.\nSource: Khaveen Investments\nOur 1-year average price target for the bear, base and bull case is $271.34.50, $289.40, $318.22 with of an upside of 21.2%, 29.2% and 42.1%\nSource: Khaveen Investments\nAuto LEDs\nAn LED is a diode that converts electrical energy into light. LEDs are almost 90% more efficient compared with halogen and incandescent lights due to their high-power efficiency and long-lasting nature. Rising demand for LEDs in vehicles is driven by stricter road safety regulations on vehicle lighting to promote passenger safety. The key advantages of LEDs are its design flexibility offered to automakers to accentuate their vehicle designs. Examples of applications where LEDs can be used are headlamps (high and low beam), brake lights, rear combination lamps, centre high mount stop lamps, daytime running lamps (DRLs), turn signals, interior reading lights (map lights), dome lights, accent lights, fog lamps, and position and marker lamps. Also, interior lighting is another area that could provide tremendous opportunities for LED adoption such as in ambient lighting, dashboard and instrument lighting. According to TrendForce, the LED penetration rate for cars has reached 53.1% in 2020 with the LED penetration rate for electric cars at 85% in 2020 and are likely to hit 60% and 90% in 2021 respectively. Besides that, the total number of LEDs for exterior and interior is expected to grow to 330 per vehicle in 2021 compared to 200 in 2019 and representing a CAGR of 28.45% with the additional innovative features. From 2010 to 2019, we estimate the CAGR to be around 16.65% from 50 LEDs per vehicle to 200 in 2019. Though, advancements in manufacturing processes are attributed to the declining ASPs of LEDs which has declined at a CAGR of -12% between 2010 to 2020. We expect that the continued advancement in LED manufacturing to result in declining ASPs by around a 5% CAGR by until 2030.\nSource: LED Professional, Osram, Khaveen Investments\nSource: Osram\nTop pick: Osram ('ams')\nIn 2020, the key market leaders in the automotive LED market are Osram, Nichia and Lumileds which together accounted for 71.8% of the total market. Osram has consistently maintained its market leadership since 2018 as the number one player in LED packages with a market share of 36% in 2020 from 34.4% in the prior year. Based in Japan, Nichia is a top producer of LED packages which are characterized by high efficiency, flexible cluster configurations, and high luminous flux density. The company is a partner of Infineon and are also developing microLED technologies through a partnership. It claims that its new LED matrix will offer 180 times greater resolution than comparable solutions currently available. Furthermore, Lumileds is the third-largest LED chip company with a market share of 12.2% in 2020. The company is affiliated with Philips Lighting which serves automakers including Citroen, Ford, Kia (OTCPK:KIMTF), Tesla and Volkswagen. It also offers retrofitted LEDs to the German market allowing drivers to upgrade their headlights from halogen to Philips LED for safer driving.\nThough, we favor Osram as the leading LED supplier due to its solid market leadership, continuous product development and integration opportunities with ams'(OTCPK:AMSSY)optoelectrical solutions. Based in Germany and with a history of more than 100 years, Osram counts on the major German automakers with the likes of Volkswagen, BMW, Audi as partners.\nSource: LEDInside\nThe company has a broad product portfolio of LED technologies for various aspects of vehicle lighting. It has collaborated with these automakers in product development such as with laser headlight technology as seen in the BMW i8 and the Audi (OTCPK:AUDVF) R8 LMX. Moreover, the company launched microLED developments and its Evyios hybrid headlamp module with 25,600 pixels based on MicroLED technology. For more conventional LEDs, Osram's products are also used by its customers such as in the Audi A8.\nThe business integration between ams and Osram is underway following the completion of the acquisition by ams. The combined company is running a broad set of programs to drive the creation of synergies and optimize its combined business portfolio. In terms of product innovation from the combined business, management has announced that portfolio alignment is in progress. The combined company possesses an outstanding technological and IP strength with over 15,000 patents. The integration of optics technologies, illumination and sensing across multiple active developments creates emerging opportunities in the automotive segment with a significant development focus including next-gen automotive lighting technology such as highly pixelated headlights and head-up display integrating AR to assist the driver and increase road safety. In addition, the company is also focusing on autonomous driving technologies with LIDAR and ADAS. The combination of ams and Osram edge-emitting laser and VCSEL capabilities for different LIDAR architectures put it in a unique position with a broad portfolio and leveraging the larger customer base of the combined firm.\nOverall, we believe that Osram which is owned by AMS to be the most promising LED chipmaker due to its solid market leadership as the leading player and exciting product development spanning across various LED technologies. Not to mention, we previouslyanalyzed the integration benefits between Osram and AMS' sensor resulting in a massive portfolio of product patents with key developments in LiDAR and microLEDs for EV and AV. Based on our DCF valuation with a discount rate of 7.1% (company's WACC), our model shows an upside of 28.65%.\nSource: Khaveen Investments\nVerdict\nDespite the flattish growth outlook of automotive sales in units at a projected rate of 1.24%, the rising semiconductor content in vehicles driven by the rising adoption of modern vehicle features and functionalities for safety, entertainment and connectivity bodes well for the semiconductor players. For example, we expect that with increasing vehicle functionality and more complex electronic systems in vehicles, the rise of MCU content in vehicles could continue at a long-term CAGR of 11.18%. With an extensive portfolio across the automotive stack, we believe Infineon could be a prime beneficiary of the growth opportunity with many relationships with automakers and Tier 1 suppliers. Moreover, the future rise of autonomous vehicle capability is expected is to drive demand for advanced ADAS SoCs in vehicles and we projected AV sales to grow by an average annual rate of 73.2% to 2030. Nvidia has extensive client wins of Nvidia Drive partners with a strong portfolio and roadmap. Lastly, we expect the rising LED adoption and content growth in both vehicle interior and exterior with a projected market growth rate of 12.9% to 2030 to benefit companies like Osram as our top pick as the leading LED chip supplier with key relationships in the German automobile industry and integration opportunities with ams. Overall, we rate Infineon as aBuywith a target price of $54.37, Nvidia as a Buy with a target price of $289.40 and ams AG as a Buy with a target price of $12.53.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":0.9,"OSAGF":0.9,"IFNNF":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2674,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}