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2021-10-06

Stocks Usually Gain in the Fourth Quarter. Why This One Is Off to a Bad Start.<blockquote>股票通常在第四季度上涨。为什么这个开局不好。</blockquote>

October marks the start of the fourth quarter, often a strong three months for the stock market. But

Stocks Usually Gain in the Fourth Quarter. Why This One Is Off to a Bad Start.<blockquote>股票通常在第四季度上涨。为什么这个开局不好。</blockquote>

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Why This One Is Off to a Bad Start.<blockquote>股票通常在第四季度上涨。为什么这个开局不好。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1168850593","media":"Barron's","summary":"October marks the start of the fourth quarter, often a strong three months for the stock market. But","content":"October marks the start of the fourth quarter, often a strong three months for the stock market. But this one is off to a shaky start—a warning that investors shouldn’t ignore about what the rest of the year might bring.<blockquote>十月标志着第四季度的开始，通常是股市强劲的三个月。但这一次的开局并不稳定——这是一个警告，投资者不应忽视今年剩余时间可能带来的情况。</blockquote> The red flag isn’t a red herring: TheS&amp;P 500has risen for 79% of fourth quarters since 1950, according to strategists at commercial bank Truist. The average move was 4% in gains.<blockquote>危险信号并不是转移视线：商业银行Truist的策略师表示，自1950年以来，标准普尔500指数第四季度上涨了79%。平均涨幅为4%。</blockquote> But on Monday, the start of October’s first full trading weekthe S&amp;P 500 was selling off—like it did for much of September. The index ended the day down 1.3%.<blockquote>但周一，即10月份第一个完整交易周开始时，标普500出现抛售——就像9月份大部分时间一样。该指数当天收盘下跌1.3%。</blockquote> The reasons why are many, but let’s start with a little more history.<blockquote>原因有很多，但让我们从更多的历史开始。</blockquote> After a bad September—the S&amp;P 500 was down 5% last month—a bad October usually follows. The index has gained in just 54% of Octobers.&nbsp;On average, a down September translates to an October loss of 0.4%, according to Bank of America.<blockquote>在经历了糟糕的9月份（标普500上个月下跌了5%）之后，通常会迎来糟糕的10月份。该指数在10月份仅上涨了54%。根据美国银行的数据，平均而言，9月份下跌意味着10月份下跌0.4%。</blockquote> Then, there’s the hard reality that the market is due for a correction—a drop of 10% or more. Before last week, the S&amp;P 500 hadn’t closed more than 5% below its all-time closing highin a year.<blockquote>然后，还有一个残酷的现实，市场即将出现调整——下跌10%或更多。上周之前，标普500一年来收盘价从未低于历史收盘高点5%以上。</blockquote> “I do not think we have seen the bottom yet in stocks,” writes Jay Pestrichelli, CEO of ZEGA Financial. “While September’s stock market declines were uncomfortable, they were far from a traditional 10% market correction.”<blockquote>ZEGA Financial首席执行官杰伊·佩斯特里切利(Jay Pestrichelli)写道：“我认为我们还没有看到股市触底。”“虽然9月份股市下跌令人不安，但远未达到传统的10%市场回调。”</blockquote> Now consider the risks to economic and corporate fundamentals lurking in the background.<blockquote>现在考虑潜伏在背景中的经济和企业基本面风险。</blockquote> Inflation isn’t going away. Higher material and labor costs—driven in part by supply shortages—aredenting profit marginsfor some companies. For the broader market, rising prices have increasedthe likelihood that the Federal Reserve will raise short-term interest rates next year.If the Fed does hike rates, the economy could grow more slowly, especially since inflation is already eating into economic demand.<blockquote>通货膨胀不会消失。材料和劳动力成本上升（部分原因是供应短缺）正在削弱一些公司的利润率。对于大盘来说，物价上涨增加了美联储明年提高短期利率的可能性。如果美联储确实加息，经济增长可能会放缓，特别是因为通胀已经侵蚀了经济需求。</blockquote> “Inflation really is picking up and they [the Fed] can’t just let inflation run rampant,” says David Miller co-founder and chief investment officer of Catalyst Capital Advisors. “Markets are generally concerned until there’s a clear picture about what the Fed’s actually going to do.”<blockquote>Catalyst Capital Advisors联合创始人兼首席投资官戴维·米勒(David Miller)表示：“通胀确实在加剧，他们（美联储）不能让通胀猖獗。”“在明确美联储实际要做什么之前，市场普遍感到担忧。”</blockquote> Lastly, beware of rising long-dated bond yields. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has signaled that the central bank probably will begin “tapering,” or reducing its monthly bond buying before the end of the year.<blockquote>最后，谨防长期债券收益率上升。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔暗示，美联储可能会在年底前开始“缩减”，即减少每月的债券购买量。</blockquote> Less money moving into the bond market reduces bond prices and lifts their yields. That makes future profits less valuable. Already, the average forward one-year earnings multiple on the S&amp;P 500 is at 20 times, lower than the 22 times it had hit earlier in the year.<blockquote>进入债券市场的资金减少会降低债券价格并提高收益率。这使得未来的利润变得不那么有价值。标普500的平均预期一年市盈率已为20倍，低于今年早些时候的22倍。</blockquote> So the takeaway? Let history be a guide—and let the dust settle on the fundamental risks.<blockquote>那么外卖呢？以史为鉴——让根本性风险尘埃落定。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stocks Usually Gain in the Fourth Quarter. 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Why This One Is Off to a Bad Start.<blockquote>股票通常在第四季度上涨。为什么这个开局不好。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarron's2021-10-06 21:16\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nOctober marks the start of the fourth quarter, often a strong three months for the stock market. But this one is off to a shaky start—a warning that investors shouldn’t ignore about what the rest of the year might bring.<blockquote>十月标志着第四季度的开始，通常是股市强劲的三个月。但这一次的开局并不稳定——这是一个警告，投资者不应忽视今年剩余时间可能带来的情况。</blockquote> The red flag isn’t a red herring: TheS&amp;P 500has risen for 79% of fourth quarters since 1950, according to strategists at commercial bank Truist. The average move was 4% in gains.<blockquote>危险信号并不是转移视线：商业银行Truist的策略师表示，自1950年以来，标准普尔500指数第四季度上涨了79%。平均涨幅为4%。</blockquote> But on Monday, the start of October’s first full trading weekthe S&amp;P 500 was selling off—like it did for much of September. The index ended the day down 1.3%.<blockquote>但周一，即10月份第一个完整交易周开始时，标普500出现抛售——就像9月份大部分时间一样。该指数当天收盘下跌1.3%。</blockquote> The reasons why are many, but let’s start with a little more history.<blockquote>原因有很多，但让我们从更多的历史开始。</blockquote> After a bad September—the S&amp;P 500 was down 5% last month—a bad October usually follows. The index has gained in just 54% of Octobers.&nbsp;On average, a down September translates to an October loss of 0.4%, according to Bank of America.<blockquote>在经历了糟糕的9月份（标普500上个月下跌了5%）之后，通常会迎来糟糕的10月份。该指数在10月份仅上涨了54%。根据美国银行的数据，平均而言，9月份下跌意味着10月份下跌0.4%。</blockquote> Then, there’s the hard reality that the market is due for a correction—a drop of 10% or more. Before last week, the S&amp;P 500 hadn’t closed more than 5% below its all-time closing highin a year.<blockquote>然后，还有一个残酷的现实，市场即将出现调整——下跌10%或更多。上周之前，标普500一年来收盘价从未低于历史收盘高点5%以上。</blockquote> “I do not think we have seen the bottom yet in stocks,” writes Jay Pestrichelli, CEO of ZEGA Financial. “While September’s stock market declines were uncomfortable, they were far from a traditional 10% market correction.”<blockquote>ZEGA Financial首席执行官杰伊·佩斯特里切利(Jay Pestrichelli)写道：“我认为我们还没有看到股市触底。”“虽然9月份股市下跌令人不安，但远未达到传统的10%市场回调。”</blockquote> Now consider the risks to economic and corporate fundamentals lurking in the background.<blockquote>现在考虑潜伏在背景中的经济和企业基本面风险。</blockquote> Inflation isn’t going away. Higher material and labor costs—driven in part by supply shortages—aredenting profit marginsfor some companies. For the broader market, rising prices have increasedthe likelihood that the Federal Reserve will raise short-term interest rates next year.If the Fed does hike rates, the economy could grow more slowly, especially since inflation is already eating into economic demand.<blockquote>通货膨胀不会消失。材料和劳动力成本上升（部分原因是供应短缺）正在削弱一些公司的利润率。对于大盘来说，物价上涨增加了美联储明年提高短期利率的可能性。如果美联储确实加息，经济增长可能会放缓，特别是因为通胀已经侵蚀了经济需求。</blockquote> “Inflation really is picking up and they [the Fed] can’t just let inflation run rampant,” says David Miller co-founder and chief investment officer of Catalyst Capital Advisors. “Markets are generally concerned until there’s a clear picture about what the Fed’s actually going to do.”<blockquote>Catalyst Capital Advisors联合创始人兼首席投资官戴维·米勒(David Miller)表示：“通胀确实在加剧，他们（美联储）不能让通胀猖獗。”“在明确美联储实际要做什么之前，市场普遍感到担忧。”</blockquote> Lastly, beware of rising long-dated bond yields. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has signaled that the central bank probably will begin “tapering,” or reducing its monthly bond buying before the end of the year.<blockquote>最后，谨防长期债券收益率上升。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔暗示，美联储可能会在年底前开始“缩减”，即减少每月的债券购买量。</blockquote> Less money moving into the bond market reduces bond prices and lifts their yields. That makes future profits less valuable. Already, the average forward one-year earnings multiple on the S&amp;P 500 is at 20 times, lower than the 22 times it had hit earlier in the year.<blockquote>进入债券市场的资金减少会降低债券价格并提高收益率。这使得未来的利润变得不那么有价值。标普500的平均预期一年市盈率已为20倍，低于今年早些时候的22倍。</blockquote> So the takeaway? Let history be a guide—and let the dust settle on the fundamental risks.<blockquote>那么外卖呢？以史为鉴——让根本性风险尘埃落定。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-outlook-fourth-quarter-51633380291?siteid=yhoof2\">Barron's</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-outlook-fourth-quarter-51633380291?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1168850593","content_text":"October marks the start of the fourth quarter, often a strong three months for the stock market. But this one is off to a shaky start—a warning that investors shouldn’t ignore about what the rest of the year might bring.\nThe red flag isn’t a red herring: TheS&P 500has risen for 79% of fourth quarters since 1950, according to strategists at commercial bank Truist. The average move was 4% in gains.\nBut on Monday, the start of October’s first full trading weekthe S&P 500 was selling off—like it did for much of September. The index ended the day down 1.3%.\nThe reasons why are many, but let’s start with a little more history.\nAfter a bad September—the S&P 500 was down 5% last month—a bad October usually follows. The index has gained in just 54% of Octobers. On average, a down September translates to an October loss of 0.4%, according to Bank of America.\nThen, there’s the hard reality that the market is due for a correction—a drop of 10% or more. Before last week, the S&P 500 hadn’t closed more than 5% below its all-time closing highin a year.\n“I do not think we have seen the bottom yet in stocks,” writes Jay Pestrichelli, CEO of ZEGA Financial. “While September’s stock market declines were uncomfortable, they were far from a traditional 10% market correction.”\nNow consider the risks to economic and corporate fundamentals lurking in the background.\nInflation isn’t going away. Higher material and labor costs—driven in part by supply shortages—aredenting profit marginsfor some companies. For the broader market, rising prices have increasedthe likelihood that the Federal Reserve will raise short-term interest rates next year.If the Fed does hike rates, the economy could grow more slowly, especially since inflation is already eating into economic demand.\n“Inflation really is picking up and they [the Fed] can’t just let inflation run rampant,” says David Miller co-founder and chief investment officer of Catalyst Capital Advisors. “Markets are generally concerned until there’s a clear picture about what the Fed’s actually going to do.”\nLastly, beware of rising long-dated bond yields. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has signaled that the central bank probably will begin “tapering,” or reducing its monthly bond buying before the end of the year.\nLess money moving into the bond market reduces bond prices and lifts their yields. That makes future profits less valuable. Already, the average forward one-year earnings multiple on the S&P 500 is at 20 times, lower than the 22 times it had hit earlier in the year.\nSo the takeaway? Let history be a guide—and let the dust settle on the fundamental risks.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1592,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}

Stocks Usually Gain in the Fourth Quarter. Why This One Is Off to a Bad Start.<blockquote>股票通常在第四季度上涨。为什么这个开局不好。</blockquote>

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