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2021-10-12

Not to buy

It Is Finally Time To Buy GameStop Stock

GameStop looks like it is trying to form a bottom from which to rally.The balance sheet is a huge advantage at this point.The point of that is to say that GameStop is no longer a meme stock, but it has been legitimized by Wall Street. If it hadn’t, shares would be four bucks again. I’m not one for meme stocks but when I look at GameStop, I see potential for the first time in a while, and importantly, GameStopisn'ta meme stock any longer.I’m more excited about the momentum picture, which is simil

It Is Finally Time To Buy GameStop Stock

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":826868125,"tweetId":"826868125","gmtCreate":1634004123264,"gmtModify":1634004123367,"author":{"id":3579605390417452,"authorId":3579605390417452,"authorIdStr":"3579605390417452","name":"YQ17","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27a39a8720408cb33a5ee4fb46fdc580","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Not to buy</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Not to buy</body></html>","text":"Not to buy","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/826868125","repostId":1158847869,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158847869","pubTimestamp":1634001112,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1158847869?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-12 09:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"It Is Finally Time To Buy GameStop Stock","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158847869","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"GameStop looks like it is trying to form a bottom from which to rally.The balance sheet is a huge advantage at this point.The point of that is to say that GameStop is no longer a meme stock, but it has been legitimized by Wall Street. If it hadn’t, shares would be four bucks again. I’m not one for meme stocks but when I look at GameStop, I see potential for the first time in a while, and importantly, GameStopisn'ta meme stock any longer.I’m more excited about the momentum picture, which is simil","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>GameStop looks like it is trying to form a bottom from which to rally.</li>\n <li>The balance sheet is a huge advantage at this point.</li>\n <li>GME is not going to zero, and I think the bias is to the upside.</li>\n</ul>\nI don’t recall any stock in my lifetime that received as much attention as gaming retailer&nbsp;GameStop(GME) did in early 2021. We all know the story so I won’t go through it, but it is fair enough to say that GameStop has been out of the headlines for months now. However, the stock is still many times more valuable than what it was prior to the squeeze, showing a massive amount of resilience in the process. I’ll admit to thinking during the initial squeeze thatGameStopwasn’t worth anything close to $400, or $300, or $100, for that matter. But here we are, so many months later, and shares go for $172.\nThe point of that is to say that GameStop is no longer a meme stock, but it has been legitimized by Wall Street. If it hadn’t, shares would be four bucks again. I’m not one for meme stocks but when I look at GameStop, I see potential for the first time in a while, and importantly, GameStopisn'ta meme stock any longer.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04667be7a9daa0ece4603f82d745d457\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"714\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: StockCharts\nWe’ll start with the chart, which I think looks quite constructive for the bulls. First, I circled a series of higher lows the stock has made in the past six months, and while rallies have been erratic, higher lows are always bullish.\nThe accumulation/distribution line remains horrendously weak, as it has been since the initial spike early this year, so that’s not helping the bulls. But if we look at momentum, I see a much rosier picture.\nThe PPO looks like it is making a bottom just below centerline support, which is bullish on its own, but is also much higher than where it bottomed last time. This combination of a higher low in momentum and the fact that the short-term line is about to make a bullish crossover of the long-term line make me think GameStop is on the verge of another rally.\nThe 14-day RSI is showing a similar story – a higher low and a bullish move – at the same time that the 5-day RSI is coming out of oversold conditions. All of the momentum indicators are saying the same thing, and it is unequivocally bullish.\nIf we look at the weekly time frame, I see similarly bullish behavior for the longer term.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea42fdf6de7b79dc06f5c976801285f7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"714\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: StockCharts\nGME is possibly carving out a pennant formation on the weekly chart, which if true, would result in an upside breakout. We’ll know soon enough as the pennant’s sides are closing in quite rapidly, so this pattern will resolve itself one way or the other in the coming weeks. I don’t see this alone as enough of a reason to buy, but it is certainly worth watching, as pennants are powerful continuation patterns.\nI’m more excited about the momentum picture, which is similar in some ways to the daily chart. GameStop was the most overbought stock I’ve ever seen during its spike in January. Obviously, that needed to be worked off, but the good news is that weekly momentum is now testing centerline support. That means the stock is no longer overbought, and clears the way for another rally attempt. The story is similar with momentum, as the 14-week RSI is bouncing off of the centerline, and the 5-week RSI is showing a higher low as well.\nGameStop’s technical picture, then, has improved a bunch in my view, and that may just clear the way for another rally. This one is risky, to say the least, so don’t go mortgaging your housing again to HODL this one. I see real potential for a rally here, but let’s take a look at the fundamentals as well.\nA much improved outlook\nIt is no secret that GameStop’s core business has been under siege for years; that’s why it was a $4 stock before it became the mother of all short squeezes. However, today’s GameStop is nothing like it was a year ago, as stores have been closed and consolidated, the company has invested in fulfillment capabilities like it never had before, and the balance sheet is massively improved. The fundamental outlook isn’t what you’d call a clear path to riches, but at this stage of the turnaround, I see GameStop as doing what is necessary to help the business grow, and stay around for a long time to come.\nBears on GameStop will say it has no future and is going to zero, and that may prove to be the case. But for a company with more than a billion dollars of net cash, that seems extremely unlikely. What seems&nbsp;more&nbsp;likely is that GameStop has the cash it needs to compete in a digitally-dominated world of gaming, which is something that wasn’t the case before.\nThe company’s latest&nbsp;earnings&nbsp;showed similar characteristics to other earnings reports, in that, the company has wild swings in revenue based upon hardware releases, in particular. Revenue was up 26% year-over-year despite the store base being smaller. GameStop is also continuing to boost its ability to fulfill digital sales, which it absolutely must do in order to remain relevant.\nHowever, it is still quite reliant upon hardware sales to drive the top line, as the software business remains a slow grower. Collectibles revenue is volatile as well, and is by far the smallest revenue contributor. GameStop is working on ways to diversify away from hardware sales, but it is still a big risk for the bulls as of now. That’s something to keep in mind if you’re thinking of going long.\nAnother risk is margins, as GameStop has struggled mightily in recent years with profitability. Gross margins in the last quarter were just 27.1% of revenue, owed to the commoditized nature of most of GameStop’s revenue. GameStop needs revenue diversification to keep the top line moving higher, but it also needs it to help boost margins. Retailers generally cannot be profitable with sub-30% gross margins, and I’m not sure GameStop is an exception to that.\nIn fact, SG&amp;A costs in the last quarter were 31.5% of revenue, meaning operating margin was negative once again. GameStop’s plan of attack on profitability is to improve SG&amp;A costs with a rationalized store base, but also to boost gross margins through different ways of capturing revenue. To be clear, it will need both to succeed. To me, this is the biggest risk of owning GameStop at this point, and it’s a big one. But if the company can execute, the rewards could be substantial.\nOne point on revenue is that the light appears to be at the end of the tunnel.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d82d960cf719de5367b59bf8447bb9d5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"289\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source:Seeking Alpha\nRevisions have been quite bullish for about half a year at this point, and while we shouldn’t expect estimates to rise to prior levels anytime soon, this sort of move higher in estimates is quite bullish. Analysts are saying the bottom was found earlier this year and that the transformation is working. I like stocks with rising revenue estimates, and in particular, turnaround stories. It means the worst is behind us, and in GameStop’s case, it certainly looks that way to me.\nThat should help with the margin picture, which we can see below with quarterly gross margin and operating margin depicted for the past few years.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0ab3d33732e19ac3dbe91488be402da\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"169\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: TIKR.com\nGameStop used to post decent operating profit numbers, but it has been slow-going recently. We need to see revenue rise in order to leverage down SG&amp;A costs, and eventually see those black bars go positive. I think it will happen, but as I said, this is a big risk of owning GameStop.\nI mentioned earlier that GameStop’s balance sheet is a big deal, and I don’t think that can be overstated. Below, we have net debt in millions of dollars to see what I’m on about.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0865b52e3d390b3aac0a99f99392af23\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"163\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: TIKR.com\nThe company was operating with more debt than it could handle in recent years given declining profitability. However, the massive capital raises have put the balance sheet right, and GameStop now has cash and equivalents of more than $1.7 billion, or just over $1 billion on a net basis. This means that not only can GameStop survive indefinitely – which makes the argument of GameStop being a zero null and void – but it has all the cash it could want to invest in fulfillment, sourcing, or whatever else it fancies.\nTurnaround stories often fail because the cash runs out; investments cannot be made to become competitive again, and the companies fail. GameStop does not have that problem, and it won’t for a very long time to come, even if it continues to lose money. In essence, GameStop has a virtually unlimited lifespan at this point because of how much cash it has raised, and could raise again given its high share price.\nGME stock valuation is a tough exercise\nObviously, we cannot use P/E or other traditional valuation techniques on GameStop because it is unprofitable. However, I do think price-to-sales is a fair way to look at it, so let’s get some context on the current valuation.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d76a1aebaccf9a97d60bd8c6221bad4a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"190\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: TIKR.com\nWe’re at 2.1X forward sales today, which is about average since the year began. GameStop peaked at 4.1X forward sales, and the last few times it has hit 2X sales, the stock rallied. Does that guarantee it will happen again? Absolutely not. But with the valuation at the point where we’ve seen rallies in the past, along with the technical picture also saying we’re at the point where a rally might be starting, the confluence of these events is too much to ignore.\nJust to close this out, remember GameStop is a very risky stock. Positions should be small and monitored closely. There are numerous risks to owning GameStop, which I’ve laid out above, but I also see cause for optimism. I don’t personally mess around with meme stocks, but GameStop isn’t a meme stock; it’s just a company with a lot of cash and a new strategy that looks like it is on the verge of a rally.","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>It Is Finally Time To Buy GameStop Stock</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIt Is Finally Time To Buy GameStop Stock\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-12 09:11 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459329-gamestop-stock-it-is-finally-time-to-buy>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nGameStop looks like it is trying to form a bottom from which to rally.\nThe balance sheet is a huge advantage at this point.\nGME is not going to zero, and I think the bias is to the upside.\n\nI...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459329-gamestop-stock-it-is-finally-time-to-buy\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GME":"游戏驿站"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459329-gamestop-stock-it-is-finally-time-to-buy","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1158847869","content_text":"Summary\n\nGameStop looks like it is trying to form a bottom from which to rally.\nThe balance sheet is a huge advantage at this point.\nGME is not going to zero, and I think the bias is to the upside.\n\nI don’t recall any stock in my lifetime that received as much attention as gaming retailer GameStop(GME) did in early 2021. We all know the story so I won’t go through it, but it is fair enough to say that GameStop has been out of the headlines for months now. However, the stock is still many times more valuable than what it was prior to the squeeze, showing a massive amount of resilience in the process. I’ll admit to thinking during the initial squeeze thatGameStopwasn’t worth anything close to $400, or $300, or $100, for that matter. But here we are, so many months later, and shares go for $172.\nThe point of that is to say that GameStop is no longer a meme stock, but it has been legitimized by Wall Street. If it hadn’t, shares would be four bucks again. I’m not one for meme stocks but when I look at GameStop, I see potential for the first time in a while, and importantly, GameStopisn'ta meme stock any longer.\nSource: StockCharts\nWe’ll start with the chart, which I think looks quite constructive for the bulls. First, I circled a series of higher lows the stock has made in the past six months, and while rallies have been erratic, higher lows are always bullish.\nThe accumulation/distribution line remains horrendously weak, as it has been since the initial spike early this year, so that’s not helping the bulls. But if we look at momentum, I see a much rosier picture.\nThe PPO looks like it is making a bottom just below centerline support, which is bullish on its own, but is also much higher than where it bottomed last time. This combination of a higher low in momentum and the fact that the short-term line is about to make a bullish crossover of the long-term line make me think GameStop is on the verge of another rally.\nThe 14-day RSI is showing a similar story – a higher low and a bullish move – at the same time that the 5-day RSI is coming out of oversold conditions. All of the momentum indicators are saying the same thing, and it is unequivocally bullish.\nIf we look at the weekly time frame, I see similarly bullish behavior for the longer term.\nSource: StockCharts\nGME is possibly carving out a pennant formation on the weekly chart, which if true, would result in an upside breakout. We’ll know soon enough as the pennant’s sides are closing in quite rapidly, so this pattern will resolve itself one way or the other in the coming weeks. I don’t see this alone as enough of a reason to buy, but it is certainly worth watching, as pennants are powerful continuation patterns.\nI’m more excited about the momentum picture, which is similar in some ways to the daily chart. GameStop was the most overbought stock I’ve ever seen during its spike in January. Obviously, that needed to be worked off, but the good news is that weekly momentum is now testing centerline support. That means the stock is no longer overbought, and clears the way for another rally attempt. The story is similar with momentum, as the 14-week RSI is bouncing off of the centerline, and the 5-week RSI is showing a higher low as well.\nGameStop’s technical picture, then, has improved a bunch in my view, and that may just clear the way for another rally. This one is risky, to say the least, so don’t go mortgaging your housing again to HODL this one. I see real potential for a rally here, but let’s take a look at the fundamentals as well.\nA much improved outlook\nIt is no secret that GameStop’s core business has been under siege for years; that’s why it was a $4 stock before it became the mother of all short squeezes. However, today’s GameStop is nothing like it was a year ago, as stores have been closed and consolidated, the company has invested in fulfillment capabilities like it never had before, and the balance sheet is massively improved. The fundamental outlook isn’t what you’d call a clear path to riches, but at this stage of the turnaround, I see GameStop as doing what is necessary to help the business grow, and stay around for a long time to come.\nBears on GameStop will say it has no future and is going to zero, and that may prove to be the case. But for a company with more than a billion dollars of net cash, that seems extremely unlikely. What seems more likely is that GameStop has the cash it needs to compete in a digitally-dominated world of gaming, which is something that wasn’t the case before.\nThe company’s latest earnings showed similar characteristics to other earnings reports, in that, the company has wild swings in revenue based upon hardware releases, in particular. Revenue was up 26% year-over-year despite the store base being smaller. GameStop is also continuing to boost its ability to fulfill digital sales, which it absolutely must do in order to remain relevant.\nHowever, it is still quite reliant upon hardware sales to drive the top line, as the software business remains a slow grower. Collectibles revenue is volatile as well, and is by far the smallest revenue contributor. GameStop is working on ways to diversify away from hardware sales, but it is still a big risk for the bulls as of now. That’s something to keep in mind if you’re thinking of going long.\nAnother risk is margins, as GameStop has struggled mightily in recent years with profitability. Gross margins in the last quarter were just 27.1% of revenue, owed to the commoditized nature of most of GameStop’s revenue. GameStop needs revenue diversification to keep the top line moving higher, but it also needs it to help boost margins. Retailers generally cannot be profitable with sub-30% gross margins, and I’m not sure GameStop is an exception to that.\nIn fact, SG&A costs in the last quarter were 31.5% of revenue, meaning operating margin was negative once again. GameStop’s plan of attack on profitability is to improve SG&A costs with a rationalized store base, but also to boost gross margins through different ways of capturing revenue. To be clear, it will need both to succeed. To me, this is the biggest risk of owning GameStop at this point, and it’s a big one. But if the company can execute, the rewards could be substantial.\nOne point on revenue is that the light appears to be at the end of the tunnel.\nSource:Seeking Alpha\nRevisions have been quite bullish for about half a year at this point, and while we shouldn’t expect estimates to rise to prior levels anytime soon, this sort of move higher in estimates is quite bullish. Analysts are saying the bottom was found earlier this year and that the transformation is working. I like stocks with rising revenue estimates, and in particular, turnaround stories. It means the worst is behind us, and in GameStop’s case, it certainly looks that way to me.\nThat should help with the margin picture, which we can see below with quarterly gross margin and operating margin depicted for the past few years.\nSource: TIKR.com\nGameStop used to post decent operating profit numbers, but it has been slow-going recently. We need to see revenue rise in order to leverage down SG&A costs, and eventually see those black bars go positive. I think it will happen, but as I said, this is a big risk of owning GameStop.\nI mentioned earlier that GameStop’s balance sheet is a big deal, and I don’t think that can be overstated. Below, we have net debt in millions of dollars to see what I’m on about.\nSource: TIKR.com\nThe company was operating with more debt than it could handle in recent years given declining profitability. However, the massive capital raises have put the balance sheet right, and GameStop now has cash and equivalents of more than $1.7 billion, or just over $1 billion on a net basis. This means that not only can GameStop survive indefinitely – which makes the argument of GameStop being a zero null and void – but it has all the cash it could want to invest in fulfillment, sourcing, or whatever else it fancies.\nTurnaround stories often fail because the cash runs out; investments cannot be made to become competitive again, and the companies fail. GameStop does not have that problem, and it won’t for a very long time to come, even if it continues to lose money. In essence, GameStop has a virtually unlimited lifespan at this point because of how much cash it has raised, and could raise again given its high share price.\nGME stock valuation is a tough exercise\nObviously, we cannot use P/E or other traditional valuation techniques on GameStop because it is unprofitable. However, I do think price-to-sales is a fair way to look at it, so let’s get some context on the current valuation.\nSource: TIKR.com\nWe’re at 2.1X forward sales today, which is about average since the year began. GameStop peaked at 4.1X forward sales, and the last few times it has hit 2X sales, the stock rallied. Does that guarantee it will happen again? Absolutely not. But with the valuation at the point where we’ve seen rallies in the past, along with the technical picture also saying we’re at the point where a rally might be starting, the confluence of these events is too much to ignore.\nJust to close this out, remember GameStop is a very risky stock. Positions should be small and monitored closely. There are numerous risks to owning GameStop, which I’ve laid out above, but I also see cause for optimism. I don’t personally mess around with meme stocks, but GameStop isn’t a meme stock; it’s just a company with a lot of cash and a new strategy that looks like it is on the verge of a rally.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":384,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":8,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}