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Chuah_S
2021-10-11

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Visa: Getting Closer To Its Intrinsic Value<blockquote>Visa：越来越接近其内在价值</blockquote>

Summary Visa reported impressive growth rates in the last quarter, but the same quarter last year w

Visa: Getting Closer To Its Intrinsic Value<blockquote>Visa：越来越接近其内在价值</blockquote>

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But both stocks appeared overvalued for the most time in the last few years and so far, I did not invest in either of the two businesses. However, I am keeping a close eye on both stocks as they are taking one of the top spots in my personal watchlist.<blockquote><ul><li>Visa上个季度的增长率令人印象深刻，但去年同一季度是Visa最糟糕的季度之一。</li><li>虽然COVID-19在短期内对Visa产生了负面影响，但由于现金使用量下降，它可能会带来长期推动力。</li><li>在我看来，Visa仍然有点太贵，尽管我们可以证明比我计算中使用的增长率更高。</li></ul>毫无疑问，Visa(V)和Mastercard(MA)是两项伟大的业务。但这两只股票在过去几年的大部分时间里似乎都被高估了，到目前为止，我还没有投资这两家公司中的任何一家。然而，我正在密切关注这两只股票，因为它们在我个人观察名单中名列前茅。</blockquote> In the following article, we will look at the quarterly results in which Visa could report growth for the first time since the second quarter of fiscal 2020. Additionally, we are looking at positive trends for Visa as well as risks and competitors the company is facing. And finally, I will provide another intrinsic value calculation.<blockquote>在下面的文章中，我们将关注Visa自2020财年第二季度以来首次报告增长的季度业绩。此外，我们正在关注Visa的积极趋势以及该公司面临的风险和竞争对手。最后，我将提供另一个内在价值计算。</blockquote> Quarterly Results<blockquote>季度业绩</blockquote> After Visa had to report declining revenue and earnings per share (year-over-year comparison) in the previous four quarters, the company could now report strong growth rates in the third quarter of fiscal 2021. Of course, we are comparing the results to one of the worst quarters in recent history – those months in which COVID-19 hit the world and several countries imposed lockdowns in different forms.<blockquote>在Visa不得不报告前四个季度的收入和每股收益（同比）下降后，该公司现在可以报告2021财年第三季度的强劲增长率。当然，我们将结果与近代史上最糟糕的季度之一进行比较——在这几个月里，新冠肺炎袭击了世界，几个国家以不同形式实施了封锁。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d997624389ce1626f1c30ff5d3ab1618\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"359\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Visa Q3/21 Investor Presentation<blockquote>资料来源：Visa Q3/21投资者介绍</blockquote> In Q3/21, Visa generated $6,130 million in revenue and compared to $4,837 million in the same quarter last year, this is an increase of 26.7% YoY. Operating income increased from $2,999 million in the same quarter last year to $4,064 million this quarter reflecting an increase of 35.5% YoY. And while we are seeing impressive growth rates for revenue and operating income, earnings per share increased “only” from $1.07 in the same quarter last year to $1.18 this quarter – an increase of 10.3% YoY.<blockquote>21年第三季度，Visa的收入为61.3亿美元，与去年同期的48.37亿美元相比，同比增长26.7%。营业收入从去年同季度的29.99亿美元增至本季度的40.64亿美元，同比增长35.5%。虽然我们看到收入和营业收入的增长率令人印象深刻，但每股收益“仅”从去年同季度的1.07美元增加到本季度的1.18美元，同比增长10.3%。</blockquote> We can also compare the results of Q3/21 to the results of Q3/19 as the third quarter in fiscal 2020 was kind of an outlier.<blockquote>我们还可以将21年第三季度的业绩与19年第三季度的业绩进行比较，因为2020财年第三季度是一个异常值。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e0347c4716e28a58bebce529323a645\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"354\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> When looking at the different segments, we can see especially “International Transaction Revenues” growing at a high pace (54% YoY growth), which is not surprising as this segment was hit the hardest by COVID-19. And while gross revenue increased 30%, client incentives increased even 41% which led to a net revenue growth of “only” 27%.<blockquote>当查看不同的细分市场时，我们可以看到尤其是“国际交易收入”高速增长（同比增长54%），这并不奇怪，因为该细分市场受到新冠肺炎的打击最严重。虽然总收入增长了30%，但客户激励甚至增加了41%，这导致净收入增长“仅”27%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1713204726bc14614950682e1e0baae3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"359\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Visa Q3/21 Investor Presentation<blockquote>资料来源：Visa Q3/21投资者介绍</blockquote> Past Performance<blockquote>过往表现</blockquote> When looking not only at the last quarter, but at longer timeframes, we also see strong growth rates for Visa (with only few exceptions). We only have data since 2008 although Visa is much older (the company did not go public before 2008). But we see strong growth rates during that time and Visa could grow its earnings per share with a CAGR of 28.15% between 2008 and 2020. When looking at the 5-year CAGR, Visa could still report growth rates between 15% and 20% in the last few years.<blockquote>不仅从上个季度来看，而且从更长的时间范围来看，我们还看到Visa的强劲增长率（只有少数例外）。我们只有2008年以来的数据，尽管Visa的历史要悠久得多（该公司在2008年之前没有上市）。但我们看到在此期间增长率强劲，Visa的每股收益可能在2008年至2020年间以28.15%的复合年增长率增长。从5年复合年增长率来看，Visa过去几年的增长率仍可能在15%至20%之间。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09a7aed5fb8b6915db311e371188813a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"326\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's work<blockquote>来源：作者作品</blockquote> And Visa clearly outperformed the S&amp;P 500 (SPY) in the last few years. But not only Visa and Mastercard are outperforming the rest of the stock market, the entire payments sector clearly outperformed the S&amp;P 500. It also outperformed other sectors like “asset management”, “retail banking” as well as “corporate and investment banking”. When looking at the total shareholder return, the payments sector grew with a CAGR of 25% in the years between 2009 and 2021 – clearly outperforming the other three sectors.<blockquote>Visa在过去几年中的表现明显优于标普500（SPDR标普500指数ETF）。但不仅Visa和万事达卡的表现优于股市的其他部分，整个支付行业的表现也明显优于标普500。它的表现也优于“资产管理”、“零售银行”以及“企业和投资银行”等其他行业。从股东总回报来看，支付行业在2009年至2021年间的复合年增长率为25%，明显优于其他三个行业。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75e79e45de3c4ae01c8a000857ffc3de\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"509\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: The 2020 McKinsey Global Payment Report<blockquote>资料来源：2020年麦肯锡全球支付报告</blockquote> Positive Trends<blockquote>积极趋势</blockquote> Visa outperforming in the last decade is clearly a good sign that we are dealing with a high-quality company, but the question is, if Visa can continue to grow at a high pace in the years to come. And the last few quarters, Visa struggled due to COVID-19 and when looking at the results and operational metrics, we saw a negative trend especially in 2020. In fiscal 2020, revenue declined from $22,977 million to $21,846 million (a decline of 4.9% year-over-year) while Visa was able to grow with an extremely high pace in the past. Earnings per share also declined from $5.32 in fiscal 2019 to $4.89 in fiscal 2020 – a decline of 8.1% YoY.<blockquote>Visa在过去十年中的表现显然是一个好迹象，表明我们正在与一家高质量的公司打交道，但问题是，Visa能否在未来几年继续高速增长。过去几个季度，Visa因COVID-19而陷入困境，在查看业绩和运营指标时，我们看到了负面趋势，尤其是在2020年。2020财年，收入从229.77亿美元下降至218.46亿美元（同比下降4.9%），而Visa过去能够以极高的速度增长。每股收益也从2019财年的5.32美元下降至2020财年的4.89美元，同比下降8.1%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26a682a825f7fa81260215b7045c89ac\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"359\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Visa Q3/21 Investor Presentation<blockquote>资料来源：Visa Q3/21投资者介绍</blockquote> And when looking at the U.S. Payment volume for example, we also see the business suffering during 2020 – especially “card present” saw steep declines, which is not surprising in times of lockdowns and without people traveling. And it is also not surprising that “card present” is now showing the highest growth rates compared to the year before.<blockquote>当看着美国时。例如，支付量，我们也看到业务在2020年遭受了损失——尤其是“持卡”急剧下降，这在封锁和没有人旅行的情况下并不奇怪。与前一年相比，“卡片礼物”现在显示出最高的增长率也就不足为奇了。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68f2e939f213b330aba1db7628758a29\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Visa Q3/21 Investor Presentation<blockquote>资料来源：Visa Q3/21投资者介绍</blockquote> And when looking at processed transactions for example, we can see a constant improvement in the weeks of April till July 2021 and the processed transactions being about 20% higher than in fiscal 2019.<blockquote>例如，当查看已处理的交易时，我们可以看到2021年4月至7月的几周内不断改善，已处理的交易比2019财年高出约20%。</blockquote> Visa is constantly improving, but we can’t deny that in the short-run, the COVID-19 pandemic had a negative effect on Visa’s business. However, over the long run, the pandemic could have been a huge tailwind for Visa (and similar businesses). Not only did the percentage of people paying with cash decrease, but many businesses were also forced to accept payments per card as people did not want to use cash anymore. In Germany for example, I can now pay with my Mastercard in almost any bakery - before COVID-19, people would have laughed at me if I asked in a small bakery if I can pay with my Mastercard.<blockquote>Visa在不断改进，但我们不能否认，在短期内，COVID-19大流行对Visa的业务产生了负面影响。然而，从长远来看，疫情可能会成为Visa（以及类似企业）的巨大推动力。不仅用现金支付的人的比例下降了，而且许多企业也被迫接受每张卡支付，因为人们不想再使用现金了。例如，在德国，我现在几乎可以在任何一家面包店用万事达卡付款——在新冠肺炎之前，如果我在一家小面包店问我是否可以用万事达卡付款，人们会嘲笑我。</blockquote> McKinsey&nbsp;is showing that the cash usage declined in most mature markets during the last ten years and especially in countries like the Netherlands (from 52% of people using cash in 2010 to only 14% in 2020) or in Sweden (from 56% to only 9%) almost nobody is using cash anymore, which is good for companies like Visa as people need other forms of payment – and credit cards are one way.<blockquote>麦肯锡表明，在过去十年中，大多数成熟市场的现金使用量都有所下降，特别是在荷兰（从2010年的52%使用现金降至2020年的14%）或瑞典（从56%降至仅9%）等国家，几乎没有人再使用现金，这对Visa等公司来说是件好事，因为人们需要其他形式的支付——信用卡是一种方式。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29910f5464a53310baf2a19a4e71e22a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"486\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: The 2020 McKinsey Global Payment Report<blockquote>资料来源：2020年麦肯锡全球支付报告</blockquote> The authors of the McKinsey study assume that COVID-19 will lead to a further decline in cash usage in the years to come and that the pandemic might have changed the buying behavior in a dramatic and lasting way:<blockquote>麦肯锡研究的作者假设，COVID-19将导致未来几年现金使用量进一步下降，并且大流行可能会以戏剧性和持久的方式改变购买行为：</blockquote> Overall, in retail, the impact was not a decline but a shift in buying behavior. In the first six months of the year, consumers spent $347 billion online with US retailers, up 30 percent from the same period in 2019—corresponding to six times the annualized 2019 growth rate of online retail. Amazon’s second- quarter 2020 numbers recorded 40 percent year-over-year growth, boosted in particular by the tripling of grocery sales. In Europe, differences in shopping behavior between geographies were strongly reduced and differences between age groups eroded as many consumers (in particular, older shoppers) turned to online shopping for the first time. And Visa and Mastercard will profit from two shifts. Both companies will profit from customers, which are buying in traditional brick-and-mortar stores but using credit cards instead of cash. And Visa and Mastercard will also profit from customers shopping online as one way to pay is by using Visa/Mastercard. And not only are emerging markets offering growth potential as in countries like Mexico (86%), Indonesia (96%), Argentina (87%) or Brazil (74%) a high percentage of people are still paying with cash. In developed markets like Japan (54%), Korea (34%), Singapore (39%) or the United States (28%) a huge part of the population is also still using cash – giving Visa still room to grow.<blockquote>总体而言，在零售业，影响不是下降，而是购买行为的转变。今年前六个月，消费者在美国零售商的在线支出为3470亿美元，比2019年同期增长30%，相当于2019年在线零售年化增长率的六倍。亚马逊2020年第二季度的数据同比增长了40%，尤其是杂货销售额增长了两倍。在欧洲，随着许多消费者（尤其是老年购物者）首次转向网上购物，不同地区之间购物行为的差异大大减少，年龄组之间的差异也缩小了。维萨卡和万事达卡将从两次转变中获利。两家公司都将从顾客那里获利，这些顾客在传统的实体店购物，但使用信用卡而不是现金。Visa和Mastercard也将从网上购物的顾客中获利，因为一种支付方式是使用Visa/Mastercard。不仅新兴市场提供了增长潜力，在墨西哥（86%）、印度尼西亚（96%）、阿根廷（87%）或巴西（74%）等国家，很大一部分人仍然用现金支付。在日本（54%）、韩国（34%）、新加坡（39%）或美国（28%）等发达市场，很大一部分人口仍在使用现金签证，仍有增长空间。</blockquote> Competition<blockquote>竞争</blockquote> In theory, Visa could profit from more and more people not using cash anymore. But aside from competitor Mastercard, there are several other companies that could profit from that trend and credit cards issued by Visa or Mastercard are not the only way how people can pay.<blockquote>理论上，Visa可以从越来越多的人不再使用现金中获利。但除了竞争对手万事达卡之外，还有其他几家公司可以从这一趋势中获利，而且Visa或万事达卡发行的信用卡并不是人们支付的唯一方式。</blockquote> One method to pay without cash is by using digital/mobile wallets – like Apple Pay (AAPL) or Google Pay (GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL). But right now, Apple Pay is not a challenge to Visa. As long as Apple Pay still needs a credit card (like a Visa credit card), this is not a huge threat. However, the threat would emerge if Apple were to come up with its own payment network and Apple Pay would not need a credit card from Mastercard or Visa anymore. For 2025,analysts estimate&nbsp;that Apple Pay could account for 10% of all card transactions. And then it is also not a problem that digital/mobile wallets are already the dominant e-com payment method (about 45% market share) and will gain market share in the next few years.<blockquote>一种无现金支付的方法是使用数字/移动钱包，例如苹果支付（AAPL）或谷歌支付（GOOG）（纳斯达克：GOOGL）。但目前，苹果支付对Visa来说并不是一个挑战。只要苹果支付还需要信用卡（比如Visa信用卡），这就不是一个巨大的威胁。然而，如果苹果推出自己的支付网络，并且苹果支付不再需要万事达卡或Visa的信用卡，威胁就会出现。分析师估计，到2025年，苹果支付可能占所有卡交易的10%。此外，数字/移动钱包已经是占主导地位的电子商务支付方式（约45%的市场份额），并将在未来几年获得市场份额，这也不是问题。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68107ced876e65315a5c91ae5d514cc4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"551\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> One of the competitors is PayPal (PYPL) and Visa must take that company seriously.In my last article about PayPalI already talked a bit about the competition between Visa and Mastercard on the one side and PayPal on the other side. In the article I pointed out that neither the number of cardholders/accounts nor the TPV of PayPal is anywhere close to Visa. While Visa has almost 3.5 billion cardholders, PayPal has only slightly above 400 million accounts. And the total process volume of PayPal was $937 billion while Visa’s TPV is $8,941 billion. And Visa’s operating margin (64.6%) is much higher than PayPal’s operating margin (17.7%). Nevertheless, PayPal is already generating more revenue than Visa and is already generating billions in free cash flow. It would certainly be a huge mistake for Visa to underestimate PayPal.<blockquote>竞争对手之一是PayPal(PYPL)，Visa必须认真对待该公司。在我上一篇关于PayPalI的文章中，已经谈到了Visa和Mastercard与PayPal之间的竞争。在文章中，我指出PayPal的持卡人/账户数量和TPV都远不及Visa。虽然Visa拥有近35亿持卡人，但PayPal的账户数量仅略高于4亿。PayPal的总处理量为9370亿美元，而Visa的TPV为89410亿美元。而Visa的营业利润率（64.6%）远高于PayPal的营业利润率（17.7%）。尽管如此，PayPal的收入已经超过了Visa，并且已经产生了数十亿美元的自由现金流。Visa低估PayPal肯定是一个巨大的错误。</blockquote> And when talking about competition and risks for “classical” payment methods, we must mention cryptocurrencies as many people see it as a serious threat. I personally don’t see Bitcoin (or any other cryptocurrency) ever replacing today’s payment methods (cash, credit cards) in a meaningful way. And if it should happen that cryptocurrencies will replace today’s payment methods (and currencies) it will take decades. I still consider Bitcoin a long-lasting hype that will vanish again at some point in the future. When talking about risks for Visa,the following article&nbsp;is also mentioning some aspects and worth reading.<blockquote>当谈到“经典”支付方式的竞争和风险时，我们必须提到加密货币，因为许多人将其视为严重威胁。我个人不认为比特币（或任何其他加密货币）会以有意义的方式取代今天的支付方式（现金、信用卡）。如果加密货币取代今天的支付方式（和货币），这将需要几十年的时间。我仍然认为比特币是一个长期的炒作，将在未来的某个时候再次消失。在谈到Visa的风险时，下面的文章也提到了一些方面，值得一读。</blockquote> Intrinsic Value Calculation<blockquote>内在价值计算</blockquote> Another “risk” for Visa are the high valuation multiples the stock has been trading for in the last few years (with some brief exceptions). The stock is trading for a P/E ratio of almost 45 and a forward P/E ratio of 39.55 right now. And Visa is now trading for 39.5 times free cash flow, which is in line with the average P/FCF ratio of the last 10 years.<blockquote>Visa的另一个“风险”是该股过去几年的高估值倍数（有一些短暂的例外）。该股目前的市盈率接近45，远期市盈率为39.55。Visa目前的交易价格是自由现金流的39.5倍，与过去10年的平均P/FCF比率一致。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7064775d745628081a12ec19225d729d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据来自YCharts</blockquote> A high pace, which should justify a higher valuation multiple for Visa compared to many other companies. I have pointed out several times that P/E ratios as well as P/FCF ratios might give us hints about the valuation of a stock, but as they are ignoring the growth potential of a business, a discounted cash flow calculation is usually the better way to determine an intrinsic value.<blockquote>与许多其他公司相比，Visa的估值倍数应该更高。我已经多次指出，市盈率和市盈率可能会给我们关于股票估值的提示，但由于它们忽略了企业的增长潜力，贴现现金流计算通常是确定内在价值的更好方法。</blockquote> In my last article about Visa, I calculated the intrinsic value in two different scenarios – a less optimistic scenario, which led to an intrinsic value of $151.21 and a more optimistic one, which led to an intrinsic value of $174.20. In this article, I want to provide an update for my intrinsic value calculation.<blockquote>在我上一篇关于Visa的文章中，我计算了两种不同情景下的内在价值——一种不太乐观的情景，其内在价值为151.21美元，另一种更乐观的情景，其内在价值为174.20美元。在本文中，我想为我的内在价值计算提供一个更新。</blockquote> As basis, we either can take the free cash flow of the last fiscal year ($9,704 million) or the free cash flow of the last four quarters ($12,687 million). Let’s be optimistic and take the free cash flow of the last four quarter as basis and for the next ten years, we assume that Visa can grow 11% annually (the same growth assumption as I used in my more optimistic scenario in the last article). Considering that Visa can still report EPS growth rates in the high teens, 11% growth seems realistic (with a reasonable margin of safety). For perpetuity, we assume once again 6% growth (as we always do when talking about companies with a wide economic moat). When using these assumptions (and 2,184 million in diluted outstanding shares as well as a discount rate of 10%), we get an intrinsic value of&nbsp;$206.84.<blockquote>作为基础，我们可以采用上一财年的自由现金流（97.04亿美元）或过去四个季度的自由现金流（126.87亿美元）。让我们保持乐观，以过去四个季度的自由现金流为基础，在未来十年，我们假设Visa每年可以增长11%（与我在上一篇文章中更乐观的场景中使用的增长假设相同）。考虑到Visa仍然可以报告高达十几岁的每股收益增长率，11%的增长似乎是现实的（具有合理的安全边际）。对于永久性，我们再次假设6%的增长率（正如我们在谈论拥有广泛经济护城河的公司时所做的那样）。当使用这些假设（以及21.84亿股稀释流通股以及10%的贴现率）时，我们得到的内在价值为$206.84.</blockquote> Conclusion<blockquote>结论</blockquote> Visa is still a bit overvalued in my opinion, but it is trading closer to its intrinsic value than 10 months ago, when my last article was published. And we can also make the case that Visa can grow even at a higher pace in the years to come (maybe 12% or 13%) and this would make the stock fairly valued. And when assuming that the declining cash usage will be an additional driver for growth, it seems not unlikely that Visa will grow at a higher pace than 11% in the years to come.<blockquote>在我看来，Visa的估值仍然有点高估，但与10个月前（我发表上一篇文章时）相比，它的交易价格更接近其内在价值。我们还可以证明，Visa在未来几年可以以更高的速度增长（可能是12%或13%），这将使该股票的估值合理。当假设现金使用量的下降将成为增长的额外驱动力时，Visa在未来几年以高于11%的速度增长似乎并非不可能。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Visa: Getting Closer To Its Intrinsic Value<blockquote>Visa：越来越接近其内在价值</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nVisa: Getting Closer To Its Intrinsic Value<blockquote>Visa：越来越接近其内在价值</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-10-11 20:48\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Visa reported impressive growth rates in the last quarter, but the same quarter last year was one of the worst for Visa.</li> <li>While COVID-19 impacted Visa negatively in the short term, it might create long-term tailwinds due to declining cash usage.</li> <li>In my opinion, Visa is still a bit too expensive although we could make the case for even higher growth rates than used in my calculation.</li> </ul> Visa (V) and Mastercard (MA) are without any doubt two great businesses. But both stocks appeared overvalued for the most time in the last few years and so far, I did not invest in either of the two businesses. However, I am keeping a close eye on both stocks as they are taking one of the top spots in my personal watchlist.<blockquote><ul><li>Visa上个季度的增长率令人印象深刻，但去年同一季度是Visa最糟糕的季度之一。</li><li>虽然COVID-19在短期内对Visa产生了负面影响，但由于现金使用量下降，它可能会带来长期推动力。</li><li>在我看来，Visa仍然有点太贵，尽管我们可以证明比我计算中使用的增长率更高。</li></ul>毫无疑问，Visa(V)和Mastercard(MA)是两项伟大的业务。但这两只股票在过去几年的大部分时间里似乎都被高估了，到目前为止，我还没有投资这两家公司中的任何一家。然而，我正在密切关注这两只股票，因为它们在我个人观察名单中名列前茅。</blockquote> In the following article, we will look at the quarterly results in which Visa could report growth for the first time since the second quarter of fiscal 2020. Additionally, we are looking at positive trends for Visa as well as risks and competitors the company is facing. And finally, I will provide another intrinsic value calculation.<blockquote>在下面的文章中，我们将关注Visa自2020财年第二季度以来首次报告增长的季度业绩。此外，我们正在关注Visa的积极趋势以及该公司面临的风险和竞争对手。最后，我将提供另一个内在价值计算。</blockquote> Quarterly Results<blockquote>季度业绩</blockquote> After Visa had to report declining revenue and earnings per share (year-over-year comparison) in the previous four quarters, the company could now report strong growth rates in the third quarter of fiscal 2021. Of course, we are comparing the results to one of the worst quarters in recent history – those months in which COVID-19 hit the world and several countries imposed lockdowns in different forms.<blockquote>在Visa不得不报告前四个季度的收入和每股收益（同比）下降后，该公司现在可以报告2021财年第三季度的强劲增长率。当然，我们将结果与近代史上最糟糕的季度之一进行比较——在这几个月里，新冠肺炎袭击了世界，几个国家以不同形式实施了封锁。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d997624389ce1626f1c30ff5d3ab1618\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"359\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Visa Q3/21 Investor Presentation<blockquote>资料来源：Visa Q3/21投资者介绍</blockquote> In Q3/21, Visa generated $6,130 million in revenue and compared to $4,837 million in the same quarter last year, this is an increase of 26.7% YoY. Operating income increased from $2,999 million in the same quarter last year to $4,064 million this quarter reflecting an increase of 35.5% YoY. And while we are seeing impressive growth rates for revenue and operating income, earnings per share increased “only” from $1.07 in the same quarter last year to $1.18 this quarter – an increase of 10.3% YoY.<blockquote>21年第三季度，Visa的收入为61.3亿美元，与去年同期的48.37亿美元相比，同比增长26.7%。营业收入从去年同季度的29.99亿美元增至本季度的40.64亿美元，同比增长35.5%。虽然我们看到收入和营业收入的增长率令人印象深刻，但每股收益“仅”从去年同季度的1.07美元增加到本季度的1.18美元，同比增长10.3%。</blockquote> We can also compare the results of Q3/21 to the results of Q3/19 as the third quarter in fiscal 2020 was kind of an outlier.<blockquote>我们还可以将21年第三季度的业绩与19年第三季度的业绩进行比较，因为2020财年第三季度是一个异常值。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e0347c4716e28a58bebce529323a645\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"354\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> When looking at the different segments, we can see especially “International Transaction Revenues” growing at a high pace (54% YoY growth), which is not surprising as this segment was hit the hardest by COVID-19. And while gross revenue increased 30%, client incentives increased even 41% which led to a net revenue growth of “only” 27%.<blockquote>当查看不同的细分市场时，我们可以看到尤其是“国际交易收入”高速增长（同比增长54%），这并不奇怪，因为该细分市场受到新冠肺炎的打击最严重。虽然总收入增长了30%，但客户激励甚至增加了41%，这导致净收入增长“仅”27%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1713204726bc14614950682e1e0baae3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"359\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Visa Q3/21 Investor Presentation<blockquote>资料来源：Visa Q3/21投资者介绍</blockquote> Past Performance<blockquote>过往表现</blockquote> When looking not only at the last quarter, but at longer timeframes, we also see strong growth rates for Visa (with only few exceptions). We only have data since 2008 although Visa is much older (the company did not go public before 2008). But we see strong growth rates during that time and Visa could grow its earnings per share with a CAGR of 28.15% between 2008 and 2020. When looking at the 5-year CAGR, Visa could still report growth rates between 15% and 20% in the last few years.<blockquote>不仅从上个季度来看，而且从更长的时间范围来看，我们还看到Visa的强劲增长率（只有少数例外）。我们只有2008年以来的数据，尽管Visa的历史要悠久得多（该公司在2008年之前没有上市）。但我们看到在此期间增长率强劲，Visa的每股收益可能在2008年至2020年间以28.15%的复合年增长率增长。从5年复合年增长率来看，Visa过去几年的增长率仍可能在15%至20%之间。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09a7aed5fb8b6915db311e371188813a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"326\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's work<blockquote>来源：作者作品</blockquote> And Visa clearly outperformed the S&amp;P 500 (SPY) in the last few years. But not only Visa and Mastercard are outperforming the rest of the stock market, the entire payments sector clearly outperformed the S&amp;P 500. It also outperformed other sectors like “asset management”, “retail banking” as well as “corporate and investment banking”. When looking at the total shareholder return, the payments sector grew with a CAGR of 25% in the years between 2009 and 2021 – clearly outperforming the other three sectors.<blockquote>Visa在过去几年中的表现明显优于标普500（SPDR标普500指数ETF）。但不仅Visa和万事达卡的表现优于股市的其他部分，整个支付行业的表现也明显优于标普500。它的表现也优于“资产管理”、“零售银行”以及“企业和投资银行”等其他行业。从股东总回报来看，支付行业在2009年至2021年间的复合年增长率为25%，明显优于其他三个行业。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75e79e45de3c4ae01c8a000857ffc3de\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"509\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: The 2020 McKinsey Global Payment Report<blockquote>资料来源：2020年麦肯锡全球支付报告</blockquote> Positive Trends<blockquote>积极趋势</blockquote> Visa outperforming in the last decade is clearly a good sign that we are dealing with a high-quality company, but the question is, if Visa can continue to grow at a high pace in the years to come. And the last few quarters, Visa struggled due to COVID-19 and when looking at the results and operational metrics, we saw a negative trend especially in 2020. In fiscal 2020, revenue declined from $22,977 million to $21,846 million (a decline of 4.9% year-over-year) while Visa was able to grow with an extremely high pace in the past. Earnings per share also declined from $5.32 in fiscal 2019 to $4.89 in fiscal 2020 – a decline of 8.1% YoY.<blockquote>Visa在过去十年中的表现显然是一个好迹象，表明我们正在与一家高质量的公司打交道，但问题是，Visa能否在未来几年继续高速增长。过去几个季度，Visa因COVID-19而陷入困境，在查看业绩和运营指标时，我们看到了负面趋势，尤其是在2020年。2020财年，收入从229.77亿美元下降至218.46亿美元（同比下降4.9%），而Visa过去能够以极高的速度增长。每股收益也从2019财年的5.32美元下降至2020财年的4.89美元，同比下降8.1%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26a682a825f7fa81260215b7045c89ac\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"359\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Visa Q3/21 Investor Presentation<blockquote>资料来源：Visa Q3/21投资者介绍</blockquote> And when looking at the U.S. Payment volume for example, we also see the business suffering during 2020 – especially “card present” saw steep declines, which is not surprising in times of lockdowns and without people traveling. And it is also not surprising that “card present” is now showing the highest growth rates compared to the year before.<blockquote>当看着美国时。例如，支付量，我们也看到业务在2020年遭受了损失——尤其是“持卡”急剧下降，这在封锁和没有人旅行的情况下并不奇怪。与前一年相比，“卡片礼物”现在显示出最高的增长率也就不足为奇了。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68f2e939f213b330aba1db7628758a29\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Visa Q3/21 Investor Presentation<blockquote>资料来源：Visa Q3/21投资者介绍</blockquote> And when looking at processed transactions for example, we can see a constant improvement in the weeks of April till July 2021 and the processed transactions being about 20% higher than in fiscal 2019.<blockquote>例如，当查看已处理的交易时，我们可以看到2021年4月至7月的几周内不断改善，已处理的交易比2019财年高出约20%。</blockquote> Visa is constantly improving, but we can’t deny that in the short-run, the COVID-19 pandemic had a negative effect on Visa’s business. However, over the long run, the pandemic could have been a huge tailwind for Visa (and similar businesses). Not only did the percentage of people paying with cash decrease, but many businesses were also forced to accept payments per card as people did not want to use cash anymore. In Germany for example, I can now pay with my Mastercard in almost any bakery - before COVID-19, people would have laughed at me if I asked in a small bakery if I can pay with my Mastercard.<blockquote>Visa在不断改进，但我们不能否认，在短期内，COVID-19大流行对Visa的业务产生了负面影响。然而，从长远来看，疫情可能会成为Visa（以及类似企业）的巨大推动力。不仅用现金支付的人的比例下降了，而且许多企业也被迫接受每张卡支付，因为人们不想再使用现金了。例如，在德国，我现在几乎可以在任何一家面包店用万事达卡付款——在新冠肺炎之前，如果我在一家小面包店问我是否可以用万事达卡付款，人们会嘲笑我。</blockquote> McKinsey&nbsp;is showing that the cash usage declined in most mature markets during the last ten years and especially in countries like the Netherlands (from 52% of people using cash in 2010 to only 14% in 2020) or in Sweden (from 56% to only 9%) almost nobody is using cash anymore, which is good for companies like Visa as people need other forms of payment – and credit cards are one way.<blockquote>麦肯锡表明，在过去十年中，大多数成熟市场的现金使用量都有所下降，特别是在荷兰（从2010年的52%使用现金降至2020年的14%）或瑞典（从56%降至仅9%）等国家，几乎没有人再使用现金，这对Visa等公司来说是件好事，因为人们需要其他形式的支付——信用卡是一种方式。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29910f5464a53310baf2a19a4e71e22a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"486\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: The 2020 McKinsey Global Payment Report<blockquote>资料来源：2020年麦肯锡全球支付报告</blockquote> The authors of the McKinsey study assume that COVID-19 will lead to a further decline in cash usage in the years to come and that the pandemic might have changed the buying behavior in a dramatic and lasting way:<blockquote>麦肯锡研究的作者假设，COVID-19将导致未来几年现金使用量进一步下降，并且大流行可能会以戏剧性和持久的方式改变购买行为：</blockquote> Overall, in retail, the impact was not a decline but a shift in buying behavior. In the first six months of the year, consumers spent $347 billion online with US retailers, up 30 percent from the same period in 2019—corresponding to six times the annualized 2019 growth rate of online retail. Amazon’s second- quarter 2020 numbers recorded 40 percent year-over-year growth, boosted in particular by the tripling of grocery sales. In Europe, differences in shopping behavior between geographies were strongly reduced and differences between age groups eroded as many consumers (in particular, older shoppers) turned to online shopping for the first time. And Visa and Mastercard will profit from two shifts. Both companies will profit from customers, which are buying in traditional brick-and-mortar stores but using credit cards instead of cash. And Visa and Mastercard will also profit from customers shopping online as one way to pay is by using Visa/Mastercard. And not only are emerging markets offering growth potential as in countries like Mexico (86%), Indonesia (96%), Argentina (87%) or Brazil (74%) a high percentage of people are still paying with cash. In developed markets like Japan (54%), Korea (34%), Singapore (39%) or the United States (28%) a huge part of the population is also still using cash – giving Visa still room to grow.<blockquote>总体而言，在零售业，影响不是下降，而是购买行为的转变。今年前六个月，消费者在美国零售商的在线支出为3470亿美元，比2019年同期增长30%，相当于2019年在线零售年化增长率的六倍。亚马逊2020年第二季度的数据同比增长了40%，尤其是杂货销售额增长了两倍。在欧洲，随着许多消费者（尤其是老年购物者）首次转向网上购物，不同地区之间购物行为的差异大大减少，年龄组之间的差异也缩小了。维萨卡和万事达卡将从两次转变中获利。两家公司都将从顾客那里获利，这些顾客在传统的实体店购物，但使用信用卡而不是现金。Visa和Mastercard也将从网上购物的顾客中获利，因为一种支付方式是使用Visa/Mastercard。不仅新兴市场提供了增长潜力，在墨西哥（86%）、印度尼西亚（96%）、阿根廷（87%）或巴西（74%）等国家，很大一部分人仍然用现金支付。在日本（54%）、韩国（34%）、新加坡（39%）或美国（28%）等发达市场，很大一部分人口仍在使用现金签证，仍有增长空间。</blockquote> Competition<blockquote>竞争</blockquote> In theory, Visa could profit from more and more people not using cash anymore. But aside from competitor Mastercard, there are several other companies that could profit from that trend and credit cards issued by Visa or Mastercard are not the only way how people can pay.<blockquote>理论上，Visa可以从越来越多的人不再使用现金中获利。但除了竞争对手万事达卡之外，还有其他几家公司可以从这一趋势中获利，而且Visa或万事达卡发行的信用卡并不是人们支付的唯一方式。</blockquote> One method to pay without cash is by using digital/mobile wallets – like Apple Pay (AAPL) or Google Pay (GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL). But right now, Apple Pay is not a challenge to Visa. As long as Apple Pay still needs a credit card (like a Visa credit card), this is not a huge threat. However, the threat would emerge if Apple were to come up with its own payment network and Apple Pay would not need a credit card from Mastercard or Visa anymore. For 2025,analysts estimate&nbsp;that Apple Pay could account for 10% of all card transactions. And then it is also not a problem that digital/mobile wallets are already the dominant e-com payment method (about 45% market share) and will gain market share in the next few years.<blockquote>一种无现金支付的方法是使用数字/移动钱包，例如苹果支付（AAPL）或谷歌支付（GOOG）（纳斯达克：GOOGL）。但目前，苹果支付对Visa来说并不是一个挑战。只要苹果支付还需要信用卡（比如Visa信用卡），这就不是一个巨大的威胁。然而，如果苹果推出自己的支付网络，并且苹果支付不再需要万事达卡或Visa的信用卡，威胁就会出现。分析师估计，到2025年，苹果支付可能占所有卡交易的10%。此外，数字/移动钱包已经是占主导地位的电子商务支付方式（约45%的市场份额），并将在未来几年获得市场份额，这也不是问题。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68107ced876e65315a5c91ae5d514cc4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"551\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> One of the competitors is PayPal (PYPL) and Visa must take that company seriously.In my last article about PayPalI already talked a bit about the competition between Visa and Mastercard on the one side and PayPal on the other side. In the article I pointed out that neither the number of cardholders/accounts nor the TPV of PayPal is anywhere close to Visa. While Visa has almost 3.5 billion cardholders, PayPal has only slightly above 400 million accounts. And the total process volume of PayPal was $937 billion while Visa’s TPV is $8,941 billion. And Visa’s operating margin (64.6%) is much higher than PayPal’s operating margin (17.7%). Nevertheless, PayPal is already generating more revenue than Visa and is already generating billions in free cash flow. It would certainly be a huge mistake for Visa to underestimate PayPal.<blockquote>竞争对手之一是PayPal(PYPL)，Visa必须认真对待该公司。在我上一篇关于PayPalI的文章中，已经谈到了Visa和Mastercard与PayPal之间的竞争。在文章中，我指出PayPal的持卡人/账户数量和TPV都远不及Visa。虽然Visa拥有近35亿持卡人，但PayPal的账户数量仅略高于4亿。PayPal的总处理量为9370亿美元，而Visa的TPV为89410亿美元。而Visa的营业利润率（64.6%）远高于PayPal的营业利润率（17.7%）。尽管如此，PayPal的收入已经超过了Visa，并且已经产生了数十亿美元的自由现金流。Visa低估PayPal肯定是一个巨大的错误。</blockquote> And when talking about competition and risks for “classical” payment methods, we must mention cryptocurrencies as many people see it as a serious threat. I personally don’t see Bitcoin (or any other cryptocurrency) ever replacing today’s payment methods (cash, credit cards) in a meaningful way. And if it should happen that cryptocurrencies will replace today’s payment methods (and currencies) it will take decades. I still consider Bitcoin a long-lasting hype that will vanish again at some point in the future. When talking about risks for Visa,the following article&nbsp;is also mentioning some aspects and worth reading.<blockquote>当谈到“经典”支付方式的竞争和风险时，我们必须提到加密货币，因为许多人将其视为严重威胁。我个人不认为比特币（或任何其他加密货币）会以有意义的方式取代今天的支付方式（现金、信用卡）。如果加密货币取代今天的支付方式（和货币），这将需要几十年的时间。我仍然认为比特币是一个长期的炒作，将在未来的某个时候再次消失。在谈到Visa的风险时，下面的文章也提到了一些方面，值得一读。</blockquote> Intrinsic Value Calculation<blockquote>内在价值计算</blockquote> Another “risk” for Visa are the high valuation multiples the stock has been trading for in the last few years (with some brief exceptions). The stock is trading for a P/E ratio of almost 45 and a forward P/E ratio of 39.55 right now. And Visa is now trading for 39.5 times free cash flow, which is in line with the average P/FCF ratio of the last 10 years.<blockquote>Visa的另一个“风险”是该股过去几年的高估值倍数（有一些短暂的例外）。该股目前的市盈率接近45，远期市盈率为39.55。Visa目前的交易价格是自由现金流的39.5倍，与过去10年的平均P/FCF比率一致。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7064775d745628081a12ec19225d729d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据来自YCharts</blockquote> A high pace, which should justify a higher valuation multiple for Visa compared to many other companies. I have pointed out several times that P/E ratios as well as P/FCF ratios might give us hints about the valuation of a stock, but as they are ignoring the growth potential of a business, a discounted cash flow calculation is usually the better way to determine an intrinsic value.<blockquote>与许多其他公司相比，Visa的估值倍数应该更高。我已经多次指出，市盈率和市盈率可能会给我们关于股票估值的提示，但由于它们忽略了企业的增长潜力，贴现现金流计算通常是确定内在价值的更好方法。</blockquote> In my last article about Visa, I calculated the intrinsic value in two different scenarios – a less optimistic scenario, which led to an intrinsic value of $151.21 and a more optimistic one, which led to an intrinsic value of $174.20. In this article, I want to provide an update for my intrinsic value calculation.<blockquote>在我上一篇关于Visa的文章中，我计算了两种不同情景下的内在价值——一种不太乐观的情景，其内在价值为151.21美元，另一种更乐观的情景，其内在价值为174.20美元。在本文中，我想为我的内在价值计算提供一个更新。</blockquote> As basis, we either can take the free cash flow of the last fiscal year ($9,704 million) or the free cash flow of the last four quarters ($12,687 million). Let’s be optimistic and take the free cash flow of the last four quarter as basis and for the next ten years, we assume that Visa can grow 11% annually (the same growth assumption as I used in my more optimistic scenario in the last article). Considering that Visa can still report EPS growth rates in the high teens, 11% growth seems realistic (with a reasonable margin of safety). For perpetuity, we assume once again 6% growth (as we always do when talking about companies with a wide economic moat). When using these assumptions (and 2,184 million in diluted outstanding shares as well as a discount rate of 10%), we get an intrinsic value of&nbsp;$206.84.<blockquote>作为基础，我们可以采用上一财年的自由现金流（97.04亿美元）或过去四个季度的自由现金流（126.87亿美元）。让我们保持乐观，以过去四个季度的自由现金流为基础，在未来十年，我们假设Visa每年可以增长11%（与我在上一篇文章中更乐观的场景中使用的增长假设相同）。考虑到Visa仍然可以报告高达十几岁的每股收益增长率，11%的增长似乎是现实的（具有合理的安全边际）。对于永久性，我们再次假设6%的增长率（正如我们在谈论拥有广泛经济护城河的公司时所做的那样）。当使用这些假设（以及21.84亿股稀释流通股以及10%的贴现率）时，我们得到的内在价值为$206.84.</blockquote> Conclusion<blockquote>结论</blockquote> Visa is still a bit overvalued in my opinion, but it is trading closer to its intrinsic value than 10 months ago, when my last article was published. And we can also make the case that Visa can grow even at a higher pace in the years to come (maybe 12% or 13%) and this would make the stock fairly valued. And when assuming that the declining cash usage will be an additional driver for growth, it seems not unlikely that Visa will grow at a higher pace than 11% in the years to come.<blockquote>在我看来，Visa的估值仍然有点高估，但与10个月前（我发表上一篇文章时）相比，它的交易价格更接近其内在价值。我们还可以证明，Visa在未来几年可以以更高的速度增长（可能是12%或13%），这将使该股票的估值合理。当假设现金使用量的下降将成为增长的额外驱动力时，Visa在未来几年以高于11%的速度增长似乎并非不可能。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459306-visa-stock-getting-closer-intrinsic-value\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"V":"Visa"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459306-visa-stock-getting-closer-intrinsic-value","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1134101513","content_text":"Summary\n\nVisa reported impressive growth rates in the last quarter, but the same quarter last year was one of the worst for Visa.\nWhile COVID-19 impacted Visa negatively in the short term, it might create long-term tailwinds due to declining cash usage.\nIn my opinion, Visa is still a bit too expensive although we could make the case for even higher growth rates than used in my calculation.\n\nVisa (V) and Mastercard (MA) are without any doubt two great businesses. But both stocks appeared overvalued for the most time in the last few years and so far, I did not invest in either of the two businesses. However, I am keeping a close eye on both stocks as they are taking one of the top spots in my personal watchlist.\nIn the following article, we will look at the quarterly results in which Visa could report growth for the first time since the second quarter of fiscal 2020. Additionally, we are looking at positive trends for Visa as well as risks and competitors the company is facing. And finally, I will provide another intrinsic value calculation.\nQuarterly Results\nAfter Visa had to report declining revenue and earnings per share (year-over-year comparison) in the previous four quarters, the company could now report strong growth rates in the third quarter of fiscal 2021. Of course, we are comparing the results to one of the worst quarters in recent history – those months in which COVID-19 hit the world and several countries imposed lockdowns in different forms.\nSource: Visa Q3/21 Investor Presentation\nIn Q3/21, Visa generated $6,130 million in revenue and compared to $4,837 million in the same quarter last year, this is an increase of 26.7% YoY. Operating income increased from $2,999 million in the same quarter last year to $4,064 million this quarter reflecting an increase of 35.5% YoY. And while we are seeing impressive growth rates for revenue and operating income, earnings per share increased “only” from $1.07 in the same quarter last year to $1.18 this quarter – an increase of 10.3% YoY.\nWe can also compare the results of Q3/21 to the results of Q3/19 as the third quarter in fiscal 2020 was kind of an outlier.\n\nWhen looking at the different segments, we can see especially “International Transaction Revenues” growing at a high pace (54% YoY growth), which is not surprising as this segment was hit the hardest by COVID-19. And while gross revenue increased 30%, client incentives increased even 41% which led to a net revenue growth of “only” 27%.\nSource: Visa Q3/21 Investor Presentation\nPast Performance\nWhen looking not only at the last quarter, but at longer timeframes, we also see strong growth rates for Visa (with only few exceptions). We only have data since 2008 although Visa is much older (the company did not go public before 2008). But we see strong growth rates during that time and Visa could grow its earnings per share with a CAGR of 28.15% between 2008 and 2020. When looking at the 5-year CAGR, Visa could still report growth rates between 15% and 20% in the last few years.\nSource: Author's work\nAnd Visa clearly outperformed the S&P 500 (SPY) in the last few years. But not only Visa and Mastercard are outperforming the rest of the stock market, the entire payments sector clearly outperformed the S&P 500. It also outperformed other sectors like “asset management”, “retail banking” as well as “corporate and investment banking”. When looking at the total shareholder return, the payments sector grew with a CAGR of 25% in the years between 2009 and 2021 – clearly outperforming the other three sectors.\nSource: The 2020 McKinsey Global Payment Report\nPositive Trends\nVisa outperforming in the last decade is clearly a good sign that we are dealing with a high-quality company, but the question is, if Visa can continue to grow at a high pace in the years to come. And the last few quarters, Visa struggled due to COVID-19 and when looking at the results and operational metrics, we saw a negative trend especially in 2020. In fiscal 2020, revenue declined from $22,977 million to $21,846 million (a decline of 4.9% year-over-year) while Visa was able to grow with an extremely high pace in the past. Earnings per share also declined from $5.32 in fiscal 2019 to $4.89 in fiscal 2020 – a decline of 8.1% YoY.\nSource: Visa Q3/21 Investor Presentation\nAnd when looking at the U.S. Payment volume for example, we also see the business suffering during 2020 – especially “card present” saw steep declines, which is not surprising in times of lockdowns and without people traveling. And it is also not surprising that “card present” is now showing the highest growth rates compared to the year before.\nSource: Visa Q3/21 Investor Presentation\nAnd when looking at processed transactions for example, we can see a constant improvement in the weeks of April till July 2021 and the processed transactions being about 20% higher than in fiscal 2019.\nVisa is constantly improving, but we can’t deny that in the short-run, the COVID-19 pandemic had a negative effect on Visa’s business. However, over the long run, the pandemic could have been a huge tailwind for Visa (and similar businesses). Not only did the percentage of people paying with cash decrease, but many businesses were also forced to accept payments per card as people did not want to use cash anymore. In Germany for example, I can now pay with my Mastercard in almost any bakery - before COVID-19, people would have laughed at me if I asked in a small bakery if I can pay with my Mastercard.\nMcKinsey is showing that the cash usage declined in most mature markets during the last ten years and especially in countries like the Netherlands (from 52% of people using cash in 2010 to only 14% in 2020) or in Sweden (from 56% to only 9%) almost nobody is using cash anymore, which is good for companies like Visa as people need other forms of payment – and credit cards are one way.\nSource: The 2020 McKinsey Global Payment Report\nThe authors of the McKinsey study assume that COVID-19 will lead to a further decline in cash usage in the years to come and that the pandemic might have changed the buying behavior in a dramatic and lasting way:\n\n Overall, in retail, the impact was not a decline but a shift in buying behavior. In the first six months of the year, consumers spent $347 billion online with US retailers, up 30 percent from the same period in 2019—corresponding to six times the annualized 2019 growth rate of online retail. Amazon’s second- quarter 2020 numbers recorded 40 percent year-over-year growth, boosted in particular by the tripling of grocery sales. In Europe, differences in shopping behavior between geographies were strongly reduced and differences between age groups eroded as many consumers (in particular, older shoppers) turned to online shopping for the first time.\n\nAnd Visa and Mastercard will profit from two shifts. Both companies will profit from customers, which are buying in traditional brick-and-mortar stores but using credit cards instead of cash. And Visa and Mastercard will also profit from customers shopping online as one way to pay is by using Visa/Mastercard. And not only are emerging markets offering growth potential as in countries like Mexico (86%), Indonesia (96%), Argentina (87%) or Brazil (74%) a high percentage of people are still paying with cash. In developed markets like Japan (54%), Korea (34%), Singapore (39%) or the United States (28%) a huge part of the population is also still using cash – giving Visa still room to grow.\nCompetition\nIn theory, Visa could profit from more and more people not using cash anymore. But aside from competitor Mastercard, there are several other companies that could profit from that trend and credit cards issued by Visa or Mastercard are not the only way how people can pay.\nOne method to pay without cash is by using digital/mobile wallets – like Apple Pay (AAPL) or Google Pay (GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL). But right now, Apple Pay is not a challenge to Visa. As long as Apple Pay still needs a credit card (like a Visa credit card), this is not a huge threat. However, the threat would emerge if Apple were to come up with its own payment network and Apple Pay would not need a credit card from Mastercard or Visa anymore. For 2025,analysts estimate that Apple Pay could account for 10% of all card transactions. And then it is also not a problem that digital/mobile wallets are already the dominant e-com payment method (about 45% market share) and will gain market share in the next few years.\n\nOne of the competitors is PayPal (PYPL) and Visa must take that company seriously.In my last article about PayPalI already talked a bit about the competition between Visa and Mastercard on the one side and PayPal on the other side. In the article I pointed out that neither the number of cardholders/accounts nor the TPV of PayPal is anywhere close to Visa. While Visa has almost 3.5 billion cardholders, PayPal has only slightly above 400 million accounts. And the total process volume of PayPal was $937 billion while Visa’s TPV is $8,941 billion. And Visa’s operating margin (64.6%) is much higher than PayPal’s operating margin (17.7%). Nevertheless, PayPal is already generating more revenue than Visa and is already generating billions in free cash flow. It would certainly be a huge mistake for Visa to underestimate PayPal.\nAnd when talking about competition and risks for “classical” payment methods, we must mention cryptocurrencies as many people see it as a serious threat. I personally don’t see Bitcoin (or any other cryptocurrency) ever replacing today’s payment methods (cash, credit cards) in a meaningful way. And if it should happen that cryptocurrencies will replace today’s payment methods (and currencies) it will take decades. I still consider Bitcoin a long-lasting hype that will vanish again at some point in the future. When talking about risks for Visa,the following article is also mentioning some aspects and worth reading.\nIntrinsic Value Calculation\nAnother “risk” for Visa are the high valuation multiples the stock has been trading for in the last few years (with some brief exceptions). The stock is trading for a P/E ratio of almost 45 and a forward P/E ratio of 39.55 right now. And Visa is now trading for 39.5 times free cash flow, which is in line with the average P/FCF ratio of the last 10 years.\nData by YCharts\nA high pace, which should justify a higher valuation multiple for Visa compared to many other companies. I have pointed out several times that P/E ratios as well as P/FCF ratios might give us hints about the valuation of a stock, but as they are ignoring the growth potential of a business, a discounted cash flow calculation is usually the better way to determine an intrinsic value.\nIn my last article about Visa, I calculated the intrinsic value in two different scenarios – a less optimistic scenario, which led to an intrinsic value of $151.21 and a more optimistic one, which led to an intrinsic value of $174.20. In this article, I want to provide an update for my intrinsic value calculation.\nAs basis, we either can take the free cash flow of the last fiscal year ($9,704 million) or the free cash flow of the last four quarters ($12,687 million). Let’s be optimistic and take the free cash flow of the last four quarter as basis and for the next ten years, we assume that Visa can grow 11% annually (the same growth assumption as I used in my more optimistic scenario in the last article). Considering that Visa can still report EPS growth rates in the high teens, 11% growth seems realistic (with a reasonable margin of safety). For perpetuity, we assume once again 6% growth (as we always do when talking about companies with a wide economic moat). When using these assumptions (and 2,184 million in diluted outstanding shares as well as a discount rate of 10%), we get an intrinsic value of $206.84.\nConclusion\nVisa is still a bit overvalued in my opinion, but it is trading closer to its intrinsic value than 10 months ago, when my last article was published. And we can also make the case that Visa can grow even at a higher pace in the years to come (maybe 12% or 13%) and this would make the stock fairly valued. And when assuming that the declining cash usage will be an additional driver for growth, it seems not unlikely that Visa will grow at a higher pace than 11% in the years to come.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"V":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4034,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":3,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}

Visa: Getting Closer To Its Intrinsic Value<blockquote>Visa：越来越接近其内在价值</blockquote>

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