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2021-10-14

Why iPhone Supply Hiccup Is Not A Problem For Apple Stock<blockquote>为什么iPhone供应中断对苹果股票来说不是问题</blockquote>

Apple stock has taken a hit due to reports of a component shortage that could impact iPhone 13 sales

Why iPhone Supply Hiccup Is Not A Problem For Apple Stock<blockquote>为什么iPhone供应中断对苹果股票来说不是问题</blockquote>

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The Apple Maven thinks that long-term investors should not worry much.<blockquote>由于有报道称零部件短缺可能影响iPhone 13的销售，苹果股价遭受重创。这位苹果专家认为，长期投资者不必太担心。</blockquote> The recent news has not been very favorable for Apple&nbsp;and its shares. According to Bloomberg, the iPhone 13 isfacingsupply chain issues. The component shortage could cause the number of Apple devices produced to drop by 10 million this year.<blockquote>最近的消息对苹果及其股票来说并不是很有利。据彭博社报道，iPhone 13正面临供应链问题。零部件短缺可能导致今年苹果设备产量下降1000万台。</blockquote> Apple stock has not fallen apart following the report, but it dipped below $140 apiece once again – levels not seen for more than a hot second since the start of July 2021. However, the Apple Maven believes that long-term investors should not worry about the recent developments involving the iPhone.<blockquote>报告发布后，苹果股价并未暴跌，但再次跌破每股140美元——这是自2021年7月上旬以来从未见过的水平。然而，这位苹果专家认为，长期投资者不应该担心最近涉及iPhone的事态发展。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7c2295e5c2fd9f6f41f8a86c0a4c8ce\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"827\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Figure 1: iPhone 13 new model.<blockquote>图1：iPhone 13新款。</blockquote> This seems familiar…<blockquote>这似乎很熟悉……</blockquote> First, it is important for readers to understand that there are different types of Apple stock investors and traders. Many buy shares in hopes of short-term gains, while others bet on the stock for the long haul. Short-term traders may, in fact, have good reasons to be concerned. What if Apple misses iPhone sales expectations in the next quarter, and the stock reacts negatively as a result?<blockquote>首先，读者必须了解苹果股票投资者和交易者有不同类型。许多人购买股票是希望获得短期收益，而另一些人则长期押注股票。事实上，短线交易者可能有充分的理由感到担忧。如果苹果下个季度的iPhone销量未达到预期，并且该股因此做出负面反应怎么办？</blockquote> But long-term holders are probably looking at Apple’s business fundamentals further out in the future. There have been enough reports suggesting that&nbsp;demand for the iPhone 13 has been high, probably even better than demand for the already successful iPhone 12.<blockquote>但长期持有者可能会进一步关注苹果未来的业务基本面。有足够多的报道表明，对iPhone 13的需求一直很高，可能甚至比对已经成功的iPhone 12的需求还要好。</blockquote> If enough demand for a product exists, it is reasonable to think that temporary supply chain hiccups will only cause sales to shift from one period to the next. This is exactly what happened in 2020, when the COVID-19 crisis caused the iPhone 12 to be unveiled and launched later in the holiday season.<blockquote>如果对一种产品有足够的需求，有理由认为暂时的供应链问题只会导致销售从一个时期转移到下一个时期。这正是2020年发生的情况，当时COVID-19危机导致iPhone 12在假期晚些时候亮相并推出。</blockquote> The chart below shows iPhone sales growth in fiscal 2019 and 2020, and in the first periods of the current year. Notice how the painful revenue decline in 2019 seems to have created pent-up demand that was not met in fiscal Q4 of last year, due to the production delays. When those were finally resolved, fiscal 2021 revenues shot through the roof.<blockquote>下图显示了2019财年和2020财年以及今年上半年的iPhone销量增长情况。请注意，由于生产延迟，2019年痛苦的收入下降似乎创造了去年第四财季未得到满足的被压抑需求。当这些问题最终得到解决时，2021财年的收入猛增。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36f351ccb2a56f417bb16d8f0246fcc4\" tg-width=\"804\" tg-height=\"568\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Figure 2: iPhone growth from 2019 to 2021.<blockquote>图2：2019-2021年iPhone增长情况。</blockquote> Average iPhone sales growth between the start of fiscal 2020 and now turned out to be a healthy 14%, although revenues were very lumpy from quarter to quarter. During the same period, and despite last year’s supply chain problems, Apple stock climbed 90%.<blockquote>从2020财年开始到现在，iPhone的平均销量增长了14%，尽管每个季度的收入都非常不稳定。同期，尽管去年存在供应链问题，苹果股价仍上涨了90%。</blockquote> Could the current component shortage cause revenues to merely shift around the calendar once again? I think it is plausible, if not likely.<blockquote>当前的零部件短缺会导致收入再次在日历上发生变化吗？我认为这是合理的，如果不太可能的话。</blockquote> Apple is a good place to hide<blockquote>苹果是个藏身的好地方</blockquote> To be clear, the alleged production delays is not an Apple-specific problem. Component shortages in this year of recovery from the pandemic has been well documented and seems to be impacting consumer tech vendors across the board.<blockquote>需要明确的是，所谓的生产延误并不是苹果特有的问题。今年从大流行中复苏的零部件短缺已被充分记录，并且似乎正在全面影响消费技术供应商。</blockquote> Of course, an investor can choose not to commit to the tech sector at all, fearing that the whole industry will underperform as the global economies continue to bounce back. But if money is to be deployed in the space, I think that Apple is a safer-than-average bet due to best-in-class supply chain management.<blockquote>当然，投资者可以选择根本不投资科技行业，因为担心随着全球经济继续反弹，整个行业的表现将不佳。但如果要在该领域投入资金，我认为苹果是一个比平均水平更安全的选择，因为它拥有一流的供应链管理。</blockquote> Last year, I explained in more detail that Apple&nbsp;has become “king of inventory management”under CEO Tim Cook – who is also the Cupertino company’s former COO. Therefore, were I to bet on one company handling supply chain issues well, it would probably be the one with most purchasing power and a solid track record at managing inventory.<blockquote>去年，我更详细地解释了苹果在首席执行官蒂姆·库克（Tim Cook）的领导下已成为“库存管理之王”，蒂姆·库克也是库比蒂诺公司的前首席运营官。因此，如果我押注一家公司能很好地处理供应链问题，它可能是最具购买力且在管理库存方面拥有良好记录的公司。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why iPhone Supply Hiccup Is Not A Problem For Apple Stock<blockquote>为什么iPhone供应中断对苹果股票来说不是问题</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy iPhone Supply Hiccup Is Not A Problem For Apple Stock<blockquote>为什么iPhone供应中断对苹果股票来说不是问题</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nTheStreet2021-10-14 21:20\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nApple stock has taken a hit due to reports of a component shortage that could impact iPhone 13 sales. The Apple Maven thinks that long-term investors should not worry much.<blockquote>由于有报道称零部件短缺可能影响iPhone 13的销售，苹果股价遭受重创。这位苹果专家认为，长期投资者不必太担心。</blockquote> The recent news has not been very favorable for Apple&nbsp;and its shares. According to Bloomberg, the iPhone 13 isfacingsupply chain issues. The component shortage could cause the number of Apple devices produced to drop by 10 million this year.<blockquote>最近的消息对苹果及其股票来说并不是很有利。据彭博社报道，iPhone 13正面临供应链问题。零部件短缺可能导致今年苹果设备产量下降1000万台。</blockquote> Apple stock has not fallen apart following the report, but it dipped below $140 apiece once again – levels not seen for more than a hot second since the start of July 2021. However, the Apple Maven believes that long-term investors should not worry about the recent developments involving the iPhone.<blockquote>报告发布后，苹果股价并未暴跌，但再次跌破每股140美元——这是自2021年7月上旬以来从未见过的水平。然而，这位苹果专家认为，长期投资者不应该担心最近涉及iPhone的事态发展。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7c2295e5c2fd9f6f41f8a86c0a4c8ce\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"827\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Figure 1: iPhone 13 new model.<blockquote>图1：iPhone 13新款。</blockquote> This seems familiar…<blockquote>这似乎很熟悉……</blockquote> First, it is important for readers to understand that there are different types of Apple stock investors and traders. Many buy shares in hopes of short-term gains, while others bet on the stock for the long haul. Short-term traders may, in fact, have good reasons to be concerned. What if Apple misses iPhone sales expectations in the next quarter, and the stock reacts negatively as a result?<blockquote>首先，读者必须了解苹果股票投资者和交易者有不同类型。许多人购买股票是希望获得短期收益，而另一些人则长期押注股票。事实上，短线交易者可能有充分的理由感到担忧。如果苹果下个季度的iPhone销量未达到预期，并且该股因此做出负面反应怎么办？</blockquote> But long-term holders are probably looking at Apple’s business fundamentals further out in the future. There have been enough reports suggesting that&nbsp;demand for the iPhone 13 has been high, probably even better than demand for the already successful iPhone 12.<blockquote>但长期持有者可能会进一步关注苹果未来的业务基本面。有足够多的报道表明，对iPhone 13的需求一直很高，可能甚至比对已经成功的iPhone 12的需求还要好。</blockquote> If enough demand for a product exists, it is reasonable to think that temporary supply chain hiccups will only cause sales to shift from one period to the next. This is exactly what happened in 2020, when the COVID-19 crisis caused the iPhone 12 to be unveiled and launched later in the holiday season.<blockquote>如果对一种产品有足够的需求，有理由认为暂时的供应链问题只会导致销售从一个时期转移到下一个时期。这正是2020年发生的情况，当时COVID-19危机导致iPhone 12在假期晚些时候亮相并推出。</blockquote> The chart below shows iPhone sales growth in fiscal 2019 and 2020, and in the first periods of the current year. Notice how the painful revenue decline in 2019 seems to have created pent-up demand that was not met in fiscal Q4 of last year, due to the production delays. When those were finally resolved, fiscal 2021 revenues shot through the roof.<blockquote>下图显示了2019财年和2020财年以及今年上半年的iPhone销量增长情况。请注意，由于生产延迟，2019年痛苦的收入下降似乎创造了去年第四财季未得到满足的被压抑需求。当这些问题最终得到解决时，2021财年的收入猛增。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36f351ccb2a56f417bb16d8f0246fcc4\" tg-width=\"804\" tg-height=\"568\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Figure 2: iPhone growth from 2019 to 2021.<blockquote>图2：2019-2021年iPhone增长情况。</blockquote> Average iPhone sales growth between the start of fiscal 2020 and now turned out to be a healthy 14%, although revenues were very lumpy from quarter to quarter. During the same period, and despite last year’s supply chain problems, Apple stock climbed 90%.<blockquote>从2020财年开始到现在，iPhone的平均销量增长了14%，尽管每个季度的收入都非常不稳定。同期，尽管去年存在供应链问题，苹果股价仍上涨了90%。</blockquote> Could the current component shortage cause revenues to merely shift around the calendar once again? I think it is plausible, if not likely.<blockquote>当前的零部件短缺会导致收入再次在日历上发生变化吗？我认为这是合理的，如果不太可能的话。</blockquote> Apple is a good place to hide<blockquote>苹果是个藏身的好地方</blockquote> To be clear, the alleged production delays is not an Apple-specific problem. Component shortages in this year of recovery from the pandemic has been well documented and seems to be impacting consumer tech vendors across the board.<blockquote>需要明确的是，所谓的生产延误并不是苹果特有的问题。今年从大流行中复苏的零部件短缺已被充分记录，并且似乎正在全面影响消费技术供应商。</blockquote> Of course, an investor can choose not to commit to the tech sector at all, fearing that the whole industry will underperform as the global economies continue to bounce back. But if money is to be deployed in the space, I think that Apple is a safer-than-average bet due to best-in-class supply chain management.<blockquote>当然，投资者可以选择根本不投资科技行业，因为担心随着全球经济继续反弹，整个行业的表现将不佳。但如果要在该领域投入资金，我认为苹果是一个比平均水平更安全的选择，因为它拥有一流的供应链管理。</blockquote> Last year, I explained in more detail that Apple&nbsp;has become “king of inventory management”under CEO Tim Cook – who is also the Cupertino company’s former COO. Therefore, were I to bet on one company handling supply chain issues well, it would probably be the one with most purchasing power and a solid track record at managing inventory.<blockquote>去年，我更详细地解释了苹果在首席执行官蒂姆·库克（Tim Cook）的领导下已成为“库存管理之王”，蒂姆·库克也是库比蒂诺公司的前首席运营官。因此，如果我押注一家公司能很好地处理供应链问题，它可能是最具购买力且在管理库存方面拥有良好记录的公司。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/iphone/why-iphone-supply-hiccup-is-not-a-problem-for-apple-stock\">TheStreet</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/iphone/why-iphone-supply-hiccup-is-not-a-problem-for-apple-stock","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176037392","content_text":"Apple stock has taken a hit due to reports of a component shortage that could impact iPhone 13 sales. The Apple Maven thinks that long-term investors should not worry much.\nThe recent news has not been very favorable for Apple and its shares. According to Bloomberg, the iPhone 13 isfacingsupply chain issues. The component shortage could cause the number of Apple devices produced to drop by 10 million this year.\nApple stock has not fallen apart following the report, but it dipped below $140 apiece once again – levels not seen for more than a hot second since the start of July 2021. However, the Apple Maven believes that long-term investors should not worry about the recent developments involving the iPhone.\nFigure 1: iPhone 13 new model.\nThis seems familiar…\nFirst, it is important for readers to understand that there are different types of Apple stock investors and traders. Many buy shares in hopes of short-term gains, while others bet on the stock for the long haul. Short-term traders may, in fact, have good reasons to be concerned. What if Apple misses iPhone sales expectations in the next quarter, and the stock reacts negatively as a result?\nBut long-term holders are probably looking at Apple’s business fundamentals further out in the future. There have been enough reports suggesting that demand for the iPhone 13 has been high, probably even better than demand for the already successful iPhone 12.\nIf enough demand for a product exists, it is reasonable to think that temporary supply chain hiccups will only cause sales to shift from one period to the next. This is exactly what happened in 2020, when the COVID-19 crisis caused the iPhone 12 to be unveiled and launched later in the holiday season.\nThe chart below shows iPhone sales growth in fiscal 2019 and 2020, and in the first periods of the current year. Notice how the painful revenue decline in 2019 seems to have created pent-up demand that was not met in fiscal Q4 of last year, due to the production delays. When those were finally resolved, fiscal 2021 revenues shot through the roof.\nFigure 2: iPhone growth from 2019 to 2021.\nAverage iPhone sales growth between the start of fiscal 2020 and now turned out to be a healthy 14%, although revenues were very lumpy from quarter to quarter. During the same period, and despite last year’s supply chain problems, Apple stock climbed 90%.\nCould the current component shortage cause revenues to merely shift around the calendar once again? I think it is plausible, if not likely.\nApple is a good place to hide\nTo be clear, the alleged production delays is not an Apple-specific problem. Component shortages in this year of recovery from the pandemic has been well documented and seems to be impacting consumer tech vendors across the board.\nOf course, an investor can choose not to commit to the tech sector at all, fearing that the whole industry will underperform as the global economies continue to bounce back. But if money is to be deployed in the space, I think that Apple is a safer-than-average bet due to best-in-class supply chain management.\nLast year, I explained in more detail that Apple has become “king of inventory management”under CEO Tim Cook – who is also the Cupertino company’s former COO. Therefore, were I to bet on one company handling supply chain issues well, it would probably be the one with most purchasing power and a solid track record at managing inventory.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1925,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}