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2021-10-15

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What Happens When the Fed Tapers?<blockquote>美联储缩减规模会发生什么？</blockquote>

What happens when the Fed tapers? That is the billion (or trillion) dollar question. Before we delve

What Happens When the Fed Tapers?<blockquote>美联储缩减规模会发生什么？</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":824231277,"tweetId":"824231277","gmtCreate":1634313577900,"gmtModify":1634313660802,"author":{"id":3570093481697004,"idStr":"3570093481697004","authorId":3570093481697004,"authorIdStr":"3570093481697004","name":"Kentlieu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae3ee305e39da5ce2f99805f9a422c93","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":147,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Fed</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Fed</body></html>","text":"Fed","highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":15,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/824231277","repostId":1139202309,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1139202309","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1634280465,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1139202309?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-15 14:47","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What Happens When the Fed Tapers?<blockquote>美联储缩减规模会发生什么？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1139202309","media":"Benzinga","summary":"What happens when the Fed tapers? That is the billion (or trillion) dollar question. Before we delve","content":"What happens when the Fed tapers? That is the billion (or trillion) dollar question. Before we delve into the possible outcome(s) though, we must first understand what tapering means.<blockquote>美联储缩减规模会发生什么？这是一个价值十亿（或万亿）美元的问题。然而，在我们深入研究可能的结果之前，我们必须首先理解缩减意味着什么。</blockquote> In response to the coronavirus pandemic, the Federal Reserve&nbsp;slashed interest rates to zero in March 2020&nbsp;to help bolster growth. It also began its $120 billion in monthly asset purchases, a program known as quantitative easing (QE) that has roughly doubled the Fed’s balance sheet to about $8.5 trillion since the start of the pandemic.<blockquote>为了应对冠状病毒大流行，美联储于2020年3月将利率下调至零，以帮助提振增长。它还开始每月购买1200亿美元的资产，这是一项被称为量化宽松（QE）的计划，自疫情开始以来，该计划已使美联储的资产负债表增加了大约一倍，达到约8.5万亿美元。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d66984161d481448082b5856b1c7465c\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"800\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfe5a1c43965ba4fe7c492c026c915b8\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"800\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System<blockquote>资料来源：联邦储备系统理事会</blockquote> QE helps by reducing long-term interest rates, thereby encouraging borrowing to help spur spending, and in turn, the economy. In doing so, the Fed essentially reduces the available supply of these bonds in the open market, forcing investors who want to own them to drive up prices. Driving up bond prices has the effect of lowering interest rates, which lowers the borrowing costs of households on their mortgages, or the costs of corporations to borrow by issuing debt.<blockquote>量化宽松有助于降低长期利率，从而鼓励借贷以帮助刺激支出，进而刺激经济。通过这样做，美联储实质上减少了这些债券在公开市场上的可用供应，迫使想要持有它们的投资者推高价格。推高债券价格会降低利率，从而降低家庭抵押贷款的借贷成本，或企业通过发行债务借款的成本。</blockquote> As the Fed eases the pace and pares back the amount of these purchases, tapering begins with the ultimate goal of sending interest rates back to “normal.” Tapering can impact long-term interest rates, as this typically sends a signal to the markets that the Fed is shifting to a less accommodative policy stance in the future. The key is to understand that tapering does not mean the Fed stops purchasing assets, but it just reduces the pace of its balance sheet expansion. This is different than tightening, which means the Fed will no longer add assets to its balance sheet and will instead reduce the assets it holds by selling them — with&nbsp;large companies recently&nbsp;including&nbsp;Caterpillar Inc.&nbsp;and&nbsp;Home Depot&nbsp;taking advantage of to issue new bonds.<blockquote>随着美联储放慢步伐并削减这些购买数量，缩减购债规模的最终目标是让利率回归“正常”。缩减规模可能会影响长期利率，因为这通常会向市场发出信号，表明美联储未来将转向不太宽松的政策立场。关键是要明白，缩减并不意味着美联储停止购买资产，而只是降低了其资产负债表扩张的步伐。这与紧缩不同，紧缩意味着美联储将不再在其资产负债表上增加资产，而是通过出售资产来减少其持有的资产——最近大公司包括卡特彼勒公司。和家得宝利用发行新债券。</blockquote> Aside from interest rates, tapering could have an impact on the U.S. dollar. The trajectory of the U.S. dollar is important for investors as it impacts everything from commodity prices to corporate earnings. Higher yields make dollar-denominated assets more attractive to income seeking investors. Tapering is typically bullish for the dollar as it means a move toward tighter monetary policy. Since currencies normally appreciate when their domestic short-term rates rise, as the Fed continues to signal imminent tightening, markets are pricing in higher rates. This offers support to the dollar amid an already choppy risk environment that is a positive for the safe haven dollar. As mentioned above, if the Fed will be buying fewer debt assets, there would be fewer dollars in circulation.<blockquote>除了利率之外，缩减购债规模也可能对美元产生影响。美元的走势对投资者来说很重要，因为它影响着从大宗商品价格到企业盈利的方方面面。较高的收益率使美元计价资产对寻求收入的投资者更具吸引力。缩减购债规模通常对美元有利，因为这意味着货币政策收紧。由于当国内短期利率上升时，货币通常会升值，随着美联储继续发出即将紧缩的信号，市场正在消化更高的利率。在本已动荡的风险环境中，这为美元提供了支撑，这对避险美元有利。如上所述，如果美联储购买更少的债务资产，流通中的美元就会减少。</blockquote> The market is anticipating the beginning of the taper process could begin sometime in the fourth quarter of this year, possibly as soon as November. In addition, half of the Fed vice presidents project interest rates rising at some point in 2022. Fed Chairman Powell is anticipating the taper process could end around the middle of next year, as long as the recovery remains on track. The Central Bank has insisted that they expect to keep the funds rate near zero until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with their projections of maximum employment. We are nowhere near pre-pandemic unemployment levels (with 8.4 million unemployed persons in the U.S. now versus 5.7 million in February 2020). This could lead to concern over whether the Fed risks tightening monetary policy at a time when the economy might be significantly weaker than it already is today. At the end of the day, if the Fed is priming the markets for a taper in the fourth quarter of 2021, we could be in for a period of extended volatility.<blockquote>市场预计缩减进程可能会在今年第四季度的某个时候开始，最早可能在11月。此外，一半的美联储副主席预计利率将在2022年的某个时候上升。美联储主席鲍威尔预计，只要复苏仍在正轨上，缩减进程可能会在明年年中左右结束。央行坚称，他们预计将基金利率保持在接近零的水平，直到劳动力市场状况达到与其最大就业预测一致的水平。我们远未达到大流行前的失业率水平（美国目前有840万失业人员，而2020年2月为570万）。这可能会引发人们的担忧，即在经济可能明显弱于目前的情况下，美联储是否会冒险收紧货币政策。归根结底，如果美联储为2021年第四季度缩减规模做好市场准备，我们可能会面临一段长期波动的时期。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What Happens When the Fed Tapers?<blockquote>美联储缩减规模会发生什么？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat Happens When the Fed Tapers?<blockquote>美联储缩减规模会发生什么？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\nBenzinga \n2021-10-15 14:47\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nWhat happens when the Fed tapers? That is the billion (or trillion) dollar question. Before we delve into the possible outcome(s) though, we must first understand what tapering means.<blockquote>美联储缩减规模会发生什么？这是一个价值十亿（或万亿）美元的问题。然而，在我们深入研究可能的结果之前，我们必须首先理解缩减意味着什么。</blockquote> In response to the coronavirus pandemic, the Federal Reserve&nbsp;slashed interest rates to zero in March 2020&nbsp;to help bolster growth. It also began its $120 billion in monthly asset purchases, a program known as quantitative easing (QE) that has roughly doubled the Fed’s balance sheet to about $8.5 trillion since the start of the pandemic.<blockquote>为了应对冠状病毒大流行，美联储于2020年3月将利率下调至零，以帮助提振增长。它还开始每月购买1200亿美元的资产，这是一项被称为量化宽松（QE）的计划，自疫情开始以来，该计划已使美联储的资产负债表增加了大约一倍，达到约8.5万亿美元。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d66984161d481448082b5856b1c7465c\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"800\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfe5a1c43965ba4fe7c492c026c915b8\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"800\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System<blockquote>资料来源：联邦储备系统理事会</blockquote> QE helps by reducing long-term interest rates, thereby encouraging borrowing to help spur spending, and in turn, the economy. In doing so, the Fed essentially reduces the available supply of these bonds in the open market, forcing investors who want to own them to drive up prices. Driving up bond prices has the effect of lowering interest rates, which lowers the borrowing costs of households on their mortgages, or the costs of corporations to borrow by issuing debt.<blockquote>量化宽松有助于降低长期利率，从而鼓励借贷以帮助刺激支出，进而刺激经济。通过这样做，美联储实质上减少了这些债券在公开市场上的可用供应，迫使想要持有它们的投资者推高价格。推高债券价格会降低利率，从而降低家庭抵押贷款的借贷成本，或企业通过发行债务借款的成本。</blockquote> As the Fed eases the pace and pares back the amount of these purchases, tapering begins with the ultimate goal of sending interest rates back to “normal.” Tapering can impact long-term interest rates, as this typically sends a signal to the markets that the Fed is shifting to a less accommodative policy stance in the future. The key is to understand that tapering does not mean the Fed stops purchasing assets, but it just reduces the pace of its balance sheet expansion. This is different than tightening, which means the Fed will no longer add assets to its balance sheet and will instead reduce the assets it holds by selling them — with&nbsp;large companies recently&nbsp;including&nbsp;Caterpillar Inc.&nbsp;and&nbsp;Home Depot&nbsp;taking advantage of to issue new bonds.<blockquote>随着美联储放慢步伐并削减这些购买数量，缩减购债规模的最终目标是让利率回归“正常”。缩减规模可能会影响长期利率，因为这通常会向市场发出信号，表明美联储未来将转向不太宽松的政策立场。关键是要明白，缩减并不意味着美联储停止购买资产，而只是降低了其资产负债表扩张的步伐。这与紧缩不同，紧缩意味着美联储将不再在其资产负债表上增加资产，而是通过出售资产来减少其持有的资产——最近大公司包括卡特彼勒公司。和家得宝利用发行新债券。</blockquote> Aside from interest rates, tapering could have an impact on the U.S. dollar. The trajectory of the U.S. dollar is important for investors as it impacts everything from commodity prices to corporate earnings. Higher yields make dollar-denominated assets more attractive to income seeking investors. Tapering is typically bullish for the dollar as it means a move toward tighter monetary policy. Since currencies normally appreciate when their domestic short-term rates rise, as the Fed continues to signal imminent tightening, markets are pricing in higher rates. This offers support to the dollar amid an already choppy risk environment that is a positive for the safe haven dollar. As mentioned above, if the Fed will be buying fewer debt assets, there would be fewer dollars in circulation.<blockquote>除了利率之外，缩减购债规模也可能对美元产生影响。美元的走势对投资者来说很重要，因为它影响着从大宗商品价格到企业盈利的方方面面。较高的收益率使美元计价资产对寻求收入的投资者更具吸引力。缩减购债规模通常对美元有利，因为这意味着货币政策收紧。由于当国内短期利率上升时，货币通常会升值，随着美联储继续发出即将紧缩的信号，市场正在消化更高的利率。在本已动荡的风险环境中，这为美元提供了支撑，这对避险美元有利。如上所述，如果美联储购买更少的债务资产，流通中的美元就会减少。</blockquote> The market is anticipating the beginning of the taper process could begin sometime in the fourth quarter of this year, possibly as soon as November. In addition, half of the Fed vice presidents project interest rates rising at some point in 2022. Fed Chairman Powell is anticipating the taper process could end around the middle of next year, as long as the recovery remains on track. The Central Bank has insisted that they expect to keep the funds rate near zero until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with their projections of maximum employment. We are nowhere near pre-pandemic unemployment levels (with 8.4 million unemployed persons in the U.S. now versus 5.7 million in February 2020). This could lead to concern over whether the Fed risks tightening monetary policy at a time when the economy might be significantly weaker than it already is today. At the end of the day, if the Fed is priming the markets for a taper in the fourth quarter of 2021, we could be in for a period of extended volatility.<blockquote>市场预计缩减进程可能会在今年第四季度的某个时候开始，最早可能在11月。此外，一半的美联储副主席预计利率将在2022年的某个时候上升。美联储主席鲍威尔预计，只要复苏仍在正轨上，缩减进程可能会在明年年中左右结束。央行坚称，他们预计将基金利率保持在接近零的水平，直到劳动力市场状况达到与其最大就业预测一致的水平。我们远未达到大流行前的失业率水平（美国目前有840万失业人员，而2020年2月为570万）。这可能会引发人们的担忧，即在经济可能明显弱于目前的情况下，美联储是否会冒险收紧货币政策。归根结底，如果美联储为2021年第四季度缩减规模做好市场准备，我们可能会面临一段长期波动的时期。</blockquote>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1139202309","content_text":"What happens when the Fed tapers? That is the billion (or trillion) dollar question. Before we delve into the possible outcome(s) though, we must first understand what tapering means.\nIn response to the coronavirus pandemic, the Federal Reserve slashed interest rates to zero in March 2020 to help bolster growth. It also began its $120 billion in monthly asset purchases, a program known as quantitative easing (QE) that has roughly doubled the Fed’s balance sheet to about $8.5 trillion since the start of the pandemic.\n\nSource: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System\nQE helps by reducing long-term interest rates, thereby encouraging borrowing to help spur spending, and in turn, the economy. In doing so, the Fed essentially reduces the available supply of these bonds in the open market, forcing investors who want to own them to drive up prices. Driving up bond prices has the effect of lowering interest rates, which lowers the borrowing costs of households on their mortgages, or the costs of corporations to borrow by issuing debt.\nAs the Fed eases the pace and pares back the amount of these purchases, tapering begins with the ultimate goal of sending interest rates back to “normal.” Tapering can impact long-term interest rates, as this typically sends a signal to the markets that the Fed is shifting to a less accommodative policy stance in the future. The key is to understand that tapering does not mean the Fed stops purchasing assets, but it just reduces the pace of its balance sheet expansion. This is different than tightening, which means the Fed will no longer add assets to its balance sheet and will instead reduce the assets it holds by selling them — with large companies recently including Caterpillar Inc. and Home Depot taking advantage of to issue new bonds.\nAside from interest rates, tapering could have an impact on the U.S. dollar. The trajectory of the U.S. dollar is important for investors as it impacts everything from commodity prices to corporate earnings. Higher yields make dollar-denominated assets more attractive to income seeking investors. Tapering is typically bullish for the dollar as it means a move toward tighter monetary policy. Since currencies normally appreciate when their domestic short-term rates rise, as the Fed continues to signal imminent tightening, markets are pricing in higher rates. This offers support to the dollar amid an already choppy risk environment that is a positive for the safe haven dollar. As mentioned above, if the Fed will be buying fewer debt assets, there would be fewer dollars in circulation.\nThe market is anticipating the beginning of the taper process could begin sometime in the fourth quarter of this year, possibly as soon as November. In addition, half of the Fed vice presidents project interest rates rising at some point in 2022. Fed Chairman Powell is anticipating the taper process could end around the middle of next year, as long as the recovery remains on track. The Central Bank has insisted that they expect to keep the funds rate near zero until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with their projections of maximum employment. We are nowhere near pre-pandemic unemployment levels (with 8.4 million unemployed persons in the U.S. now versus 5.7 million in February 2020). This could lead to concern over whether the Fed risks tightening monetary policy at a time when the economy might be significantly weaker than it already is today. At the end of the day, if the Fed is priming the markets for a taper in the fourth quarter of 2021, we could be in for a period of extended volatility.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3134,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":3,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}

What Happens When the Fed Tapers?<blockquote>美联储缩减规模会发生什么？</blockquote>

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