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RICHSG2021
2021-10-08

Its about time. And time to accumulate good ones.

Is The Stock Market Starting To Discount An Earnings Recession?<blockquote>股市是否开始低估盈利衰退？</blockquote>

Summary Earnings growth has been terrific over the past several quarters, proving a strong tailwind

Is The Stock Market Starting To Discount An Earnings Recession?<blockquote>股市是否开始低估盈利衰退？</blockquote>

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And time to accumulate good ones.","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/823262033","repostId":1122483864,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122483864","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633612054,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1122483864?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-07 21:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is The Stock Market Starting To Discount An Earnings Recession?<blockquote>股市是否开始低估盈利衰退？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122483864","media":"The Felder Report","summary":"Summary\n\nEarnings growth has been terrific over the past several quarters, proving a strong tailwind","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Earnings growth has been terrific over the past several quarters, proving a strong tailwind for stock prices.</li>  <li>For astute market watchers, however, this should not come as any surprise.</li>  <li>Considering valuations are more extreme than ever before and investors are also more highly leveraged than any other time in the past, a shifting in this fundamental driver of stock prices from tailwind to headwind should be something investors pay close attention to.</li> </ul> Earnings growth has been terrific over the past several quarters, proving a strong tailwind for stock prices. For astute market watchers, however, this should not come as any surprise. The decline in interest rates, oil prices, and the dollar over the past couple of years, in fact, predicted it. As a group, these markets have proven for decades now to be a far better forecaster of S&amp;P 500 earnings growth than any analyst on Wall Street. The chart below plots a composite of these indicators, shifted forward 24 months, against the 12-month change in S&amp;P 500 earnings. The relationship is not perfect but generally gets the trend right.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>过去几个季度的盈利增长非常出色，为股价提供了强劲的推动力。</li><li>然而，对于精明的市场观察人士来说，这并不奇怪。</li><li>考虑到估值比以往任何时候都更加极端，投资者的杠杆率也比过去任何时候都高，股价的这一基本面驱动因素从顺风向逆风的转变应该是投资者密切关注的事情。</li></ul>过去几个季度的盈利增长非常出色，为股价提供了强劲的推动力。然而，对于精明的市场观察人士来说，这并不奇怪。事实上，过去几年利率、油价和美元的下跌预示了这一点。作为一个整体，几十年来，这些市场已被证明比华尔街任何分析师都更能预测标普500的盈利增长。下图绘制了这些指标向前移动24个月后与标普500盈利12个月变化的综合图。这种关系并不完美，但通常会得到正确的趋势。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe8828707d84ad373cdfa67b61274b6c\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"740\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> With inflation pressures continuing to rise even as record amounts of fiscal stimulus begin to wear off and the economy clearly slows, however, an earnings recession over the next several quarters should also come as no surprise. In fact, that is exactly what the recent action in interest rates, oil prices, and the dollar now point to. Considering valuations aremore extreme than ever beforeand investors are alsomore highly leveraged than any other time in the past, a shifting in this fundamental driver of stock prices from tailwind to headwind should be something investors pay close attention to.</p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管创纪录的财政刺激措施开始消退且经济明显放缓，但通胀压力仍在继续上升，未来几个季度的盈利衰退也不足为奇。事实上，这正是最近利率、油价和美元走势所指向的。考虑到估值比以往任何时候都更加极端，投资者的杠杆率也比过去任何时候都高，股价的基本驱动因素从顺风转向逆风应该是投资者密切关注的事情。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1633612154156","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is The Stock Market Starting To Discount An Earnings Recession?<blockquote>股市是否开始低估盈利衰退？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs The Stock Market Starting To Discount An Earnings Recession?<blockquote>股市是否开始低估盈利衰退？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Felder Report</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-07 21:07</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Earnings growth has been terrific over the past several quarters, proving a strong tailwind for stock prices.</li>  <li>For astute market watchers, however, this should not come as any surprise.</li>  <li>Considering valuations are more extreme than ever before and investors are also more highly leveraged than any other time in the past, a shifting in this fundamental driver of stock prices from tailwind to headwind should be something investors pay close attention to.</li> </ul> Earnings growth has been terrific over the past several quarters, proving a strong tailwind for stock prices. For astute market watchers, however, this should not come as any surprise. The decline in interest rates, oil prices, and the dollar over the past couple of years, in fact, predicted it. As a group, these markets have proven for decades now to be a far better forecaster of S&amp;P 500 earnings growth than any analyst on Wall Street. The chart below plots a composite of these indicators, shifted forward 24 months, against the 12-month change in S&amp;P 500 earnings. The relationship is not perfect but generally gets the trend right.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>过去几个季度的盈利增长非常出色，为股价提供了强劲的推动力。</li><li>然而，对于精明的市场观察人士来说，这并不奇怪。</li><li>考虑到估值比以往任何时候都更加极端，投资者的杠杆率也比过去任何时候都高，股价的这一基本面驱动因素从顺风向逆风的转变应该是投资者密切关注的事情。</li></ul>过去几个季度的盈利增长非常出色，为股价提供了强劲的推动力。然而，对于精明的市场观察人士来说，这并不奇怪。事实上，过去几年利率、油价和美元的下跌预示了这一点。作为一个整体，几十年来，这些市场已被证明比华尔街任何分析师都更能预测标普500的盈利增长。下图绘制了这些指标向前移动24个月后与标普500盈利12个月变化的综合图。这种关系并不完美，但通常会得到正确的趋势。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe8828707d84ad373cdfa67b61274b6c\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"740\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> With inflation pressures continuing to rise even as record amounts of fiscal stimulus begin to wear off and the economy clearly slows, however, an earnings recession over the next several quarters should also come as no surprise. In fact, that is exactly what the recent action in interest rates, oil prices, and the dollar now point to. Considering valuations aremore extreme than ever beforeand investors are alsomore highly leveraged than any other time in the past, a shifting in this fundamental driver of stock prices from tailwind to headwind should be something investors pay close attention to.</p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管创纪录的财政刺激措施开始消退且经济明显放缓，但通胀压力仍在继续上升，未来几个季度的盈利衰退也不足为奇。事实上，这正是最近利率、油价和美元走势所指向的。考虑到估值比以往任何时候都更加极端，投资者的杠杆率也比过去任何时候都高，股价的基本驱动因素从顺风转向逆风应该是投资者密切关注的事情。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://thefelderreport.com/2021/10/06/is-the-stock-market-starting-to-discount-an-earnings-recession/\">The Felder Report</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://thefelderreport.com/2021/10/06/is-the-stock-market-starting-to-discount-an-earnings-recession/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122483864","content_text":"Summary\n\nEarnings growth has been terrific over the past several quarters, proving a strong tailwind for stock prices.\nFor astute market watchers, however, this should not come as any surprise.\nConsidering valuations are more extreme than ever before and investors are also more highly leveraged than any other time in the past, a shifting in this fundamental driver of stock prices from tailwind to headwind should be something investors pay close attention to.\n\nEarnings growth has been terrific over the past several quarters, proving a strong tailwind for stock prices. For astute market watchers, however, this should not come as any surprise. The decline in interest rates, oil prices, and the dollar over the past couple of years, in fact, predicted it. As a group, these markets have proven for decades now to be a far better forecaster of S&P 500 earnings growth than any analyst on Wall Street. The chart below plots a composite of these indicators, shifted forward 24 months, against the 12-month change in S&P 500 earnings. The relationship is not perfect but generally gets the trend right.\n\nWith inflation pressures continuing to rise even as record amounts of fiscal stimulus begin to wear off and the economy clearly slows, however, an earnings recession over the next several quarters should also come as no surprise. In fact, that is exactly what the recent action in interest rates, oil prices, and the dollar now point to. 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