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bernicee
2021-10-09

6 reasons this is a fresh multiyear bull market and 6 stocks in the surprising sector you should favor<blockquote>这是一个新的多年牛市的6个原因以及您应该青睐的令人惊讶的行业中的6只股票</blockquote>

Stock-market pessimism and excess consumer buying power point to retail stocks. Nothing like a litt

6 reasons this is a fresh multiyear bull market and 6 stocks in the surprising sector you should favor<blockquote>这是一个新的多年牛市的6个原因以及您应该青睐的令人惊讶的行业中的6只股票</blockquote>

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Nothing like a little October turbulence to help the market’s weak hands get in touch with their inner bears.<blockquote>股市悲观情绪和消费者过度购买给零售股带来了动力。没有什么比十月的一点动荡更能帮助市场的弱者与内心的空头取得联系了。</blockquote> But don’t let their negativity rub off on you. We’re still near the beginning of what will be a multiyear bull market. Here are six reasons to buy stocks now, and six names to consider in one of the best sectors to own at the moment.<blockquote>但是不要让他们的消极影响到你。我们仍接近多年牛市的开始。以下是现在购买股票的六个理由，以及目前最值得考虑的行业之一的六个名字。</blockquote> 1. Sentiment has gotten bearish enough<blockquote>1.情绪已经变得足够悲观</blockquote> I regularly track investor sentiment in my stock letter (details and link in bio below) to make contrarian “calls” on the market. While most of your money should be in long-term holdings, timing entries when most people are bearish gives you an edge. That is the case now. Sentiment is not extremely negative, but it fell enough this week to trigger a buy signal in my system.<blockquote>我定期在我的股票信中跟踪投资者情绪（详细信息和链接见下面的简历），以在市场上进行逆向“评级”。虽然你的大部分资金应该长期持有，但在大多数人看跌的时候入场会给你带来优势。现在就是这样。情绪并不是极其负面，但本周下跌足以在我的系统中触发买入信号。</blockquote> It’s also worth pointing out that major media figures turned pretty negative this week, another good contrarian signal. (I won’t name names.) And the fact that their negativity is a bullish signal in my book doesn’t mean I think they are dense. It’s just that high-profile media commentators are consensus sponges. It’s an occupational hazard – which we can use to our advantage as investors.<blockquote>还值得指出的是，主要媒体数据本周变得相当负面，这是另一个良好的逆向信号。（我就不指名道姓了。）而他们的消极在我的书里是看涨信号的事实，并不意味着我认为他们是密集的。只是高调的媒体评论员是共识海绵。这是一种职业危害——作为投资者，我们可以利用这一点。</blockquote> Pick your favorite popular financial media talking heads, then do the opposite whenever they turn consistently negative — or positive.<blockquote>挑选你最喜欢的流行财经媒体发言人，然后在他们持续消极或积极时反其道而行之。</blockquote> 2. Seasonality is in our favor<blockquote>2.季节性对我们有利</blockquote> The worst month for stocks is October, and the weakest days are Oct. 10 and Oct. 11. Then this bleak month is followed by the seasonally strong January-May phase when the market is bolstered by new money coming in. In between, November and December can be strong as stocks rebound from October weakness and the end of the mutual-fund tax-loss selling season. That’s finished at the end of October.<blockquote>股市最糟糕的月份是10月，最疲软的日子是10月10日和10月11日。然后，这个惨淡的月份之后是季节性强劲的1月至5月阶段，此时市场受到新资金流入的支撑。在此期间，随着股市从10月份的疲软中反弹以及共同基金税收损失销售季节的结束，11月和12月可能会表现强劲。那是十月底完成的。</blockquote> 3. COVID is rolling over<blockquote>3.新冠疫情正在蔓延</blockquote> It’s no secret that case counts and hospitalizations are down sharply. Last year, the cold weather did not usher in a winter COVID flu season. So, it’s not too crazy to expect the same thing this year, especially given all the people who have been vaccinated or infected. Reopening will help boost the economy.<blockquote>众所周知，病例数和住院人数急剧下降。去年，寒冷的天气并没有迎来冬季COVID流感季节。所以，今年期待同样的事情并不太疯狂，尤其是考虑到所有已经接种疫苗或被感染的人。重新开放将有助于提振经济。</blockquote> 4. A correction may have already happened<blockquote>4.修正可能已经发生</blockquote> Since the summer, the market has experienced rolling corrections in various sectors. The Russell 2000RUT,+0.14%was down over 10% in August, the definition of a correction. Cyclicals, retail, tech and so forth have all been hit. As of early October, 90% or more of S&amp;P 500SPX,-0.05%and NasdaqCOMP,-0.28%stocks had fallen at least 10% from 2021 highs, notes Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles SchwabSCHW,+1.47%.<blockquote>入夏以来，市场经历了各板块的滚动回调。罗素2000RUT,+0.14%8月份下跌超过10%，这是回调的定义。周期性、零售、科技等都受到了打击。嘉信理财首席投资策略师Liz Ann Sonders指出，截至10月初，90%或更多的标准普尔500SPX(-0.05%)和纳斯达克综合指数(-0.28%)股票已较2021年高点下跌至少10%，+1.47%。</blockquote> In other words, while everyone was looking for a correction, it may have already happened. The market has a funny way of tricking most people most of the time, this way.<blockquote>换句话说，当所有人都在寻找修正时，它可能已经发生了。大多数时候，市场有一种有趣的方式来欺骗大多数人，就是这种方式。</blockquote> 5. There’s been strong household formation<blockquote>5.家庭结构强劲</blockquote> Millennials are finally giving up on the parents’ basement – if there was ever any truth to that cliché.<blockquote>千禧一代终于放弃了父母的地下室——如果这种陈词滥调有任何真实性的话。</blockquote> What is true: They’re entering the prime age for marriage and family. Plus, the economy is booming so they feel confident enough to make the plunge into homeownership.<blockquote>事实是：他们正在进入婚姻和家庭的黄金年龄。此外，经济正在蓬勃发展，所以他们有足够的信心投入到住房所有权。</blockquote> The upshot: Household formation is now at about two million per year, more than double the rate for the past five years. Home buyers have to purchase a lot of stuff to fill up those new houses. That’s a built-in economy booster.<blockquote>结果是：现在每年大约有200万个家庭组成，是过去五年的两倍多。购房者不得不购买很多东西来填满这些新房子。这是一个内置的经济助推器。</blockquote> 6. The consumer is scared, locked and loaded<blockquote>6.消费者害怕，锁定和装载</blockquote> There are at least a half-dozen natural sources of stimulus in the economy ready to drive growth whether the Fed tapers or not, points out Jim Paulsen, an economist and strategist at Leuthold Group. One is that household formation, mentioned above. Another is the low level of inventories at companies – which have to restock big time. But to me, the big one is the consumer, simply because consumer spending is the big driver of our economy.<blockquote>Leuthold Group经济学家兼策略师吉姆·保尔森(Jim Paulsen)指出，无论美联储是否缩减规模，经济中至少有六种自然刺激来源可以推动经济增长。一个是上面提到的家庭结构。另一个原因是公司库存水平较低——它们必须大量补货。但对我来说，最大的因素是消费者，因为消费者支出是我们经济的主要驱动力。</blockquote> The bottom line: Consumer are scared. But they have a ton of buying power to tap when their anxieties ease — perhaps as COVID continues to roll over.<blockquote>底线是：消费者感到害怕。但当他们的焦虑缓解时，他们有大量的购买力可以利用——也许是随着新冠疫情的继续蔓延。</blockquote> Now a little more detail.August consumer sentimentwas at the lowest level since the pandemic began, as measured by the University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment. Itnudged up in September, but it is still low.<blockquote>现在更多细节。根据密歇根大学消费者信心指数衡量，8月份消费者信心处于大流行开始以来的最低水平。9月份有所上升，但仍处于低位。</blockquote> At the same time, consumers have a tremendous amount of buying power. Personal savings are at about 12% of GDP. That’s twice the longer-term average of around 6%-7%, notes Paulsen. Net worth compared to income is at record highs.<blockquote>与此同时，消费者拥有巨大的购买力。个人储蓄约占GDP的12%。保尔森指出，这是6%-7%左右的长期平均水平的两倍。净资产与收入相比创历史新高。</blockquote> Don’t make the mistake of thinking that’s just the rich getting richer because of the stock market. Homes are up a lot too, and most people own homes. The ratio of household debt to personal income is the lowest since 1985.<blockquote>不要错误地认为这只是富人因为股市而变得更富。房价也涨了很多，大多数人都有自己的房子。家庭债务与个人收入之比为1985年以来最低。</blockquote> “Consumers are scared and loaded with untapped buying power,” says Paulsen. “This pessimistic mindset combined with the excess buying power has historically produced solid market gains with infrequent declines,” he says. “This ratio portrays a bull market that is still in its infancy.”<blockquote>“消费者感到害怕，并且充满了未开发的购买力，”保尔森说。他表示：“这种悲观心态加上购买力过剩，从历史上看，市场出现了稳健的上涨，但很少出现下跌。”“这个比率描绘了一个仍处于起步阶段的牛市。”</blockquote> Stocks&nbsp;to buy<blockquote>S托克斯购买</blockquote> Since the consumer is such a big part of this dynamic, I say go with retail stocks. They’ve been underperforming, which also makes them look attractive.<blockquote>由于消费者是这种动态的重要组成部分，我建议选择零售股。他们表现不佳，这也让他们看起来很有吸引力。</blockquote> Morningstar cites Bath &amp; Body WorksBBWI,-0.74%as a retailer with a moat and trading at a discount. The body care and home fragrance retailer has a four-star rating because its stock is trading so far below Morningstar’s “fair value” estimate of $79 for the name.<blockquote>晨星公司将Bath&amp;Body WorksBBWI,-0.74%视为一家拥有护城河且交易折扣的零售商。这家身体护理和家用香水零售商获得四星级评级，因为其股票交易价格远低于晨星公司对该名称79美元的“公允价值”估计。</blockquote> As for the moat, analyst Jaime Katz cites the company’s strong brand, its leadership position in its space, and the 30% average return on invested capital, well above its 8% weighted average cost of capital.<blockquote>至于护城河，分析师Jaime Katz列举了该公司强大的品牌、在该领域的领导地位以及30%的平均投资资本回报率，远高于其8%的加权平均资本成本。</blockquote> Eric Marshall, a portfolio manager at the Hodges Small Cap fundHDPSX,+1.83%,likes the apparel retailer American Eagle OutfittersAEO,0.36%,which is down over 35% from highs this year. The company posted record revenue of $1.19 billion in the second quarter, up 35% year over year.<blockquote>Hodges Small Cap fundHDPSX(+1.83%)的投资组合经理埃里克·马歇尔(Eric Marshall)看好服装零售商American Eagle OutfittersAEO(0.36%)，该股较今年高点下跌了35%以上。该公司第二季度营收达到创纪录的11.9亿美元，同比增长35%。</blockquote> The core growth driver is its popular Aerie brand. Marshall thinks the company will earn over $2 a share this year, which makes American Eagle stock a bargain at around 13 times forward earnings.<blockquote>核心增长动力是其广受欢迎的Aerie品牌。马歇尔认为该公司今年每股收益将超过2美元，这使得American Eagle股票的预期市盈率约为13倍，非常便宜。</blockquote> Marshall is worth listening to because he has a hot hand. His Hodges small-cap fund is up 31% this year, beating its small blend category and Russell 2000 index benchmark by 12 to 18 percentage points, according to Morningstar.<blockquote>马歇尔值得一听，因为他有一双热情的手。据晨星公司称，他的Hodges小型股基金今年上涨了31%，比小型混合基金和罗素2000指数基准高出12至18个百分点。</blockquote> Marshall also likes Academy Sports and OutdoorsASO,-0.91%,which sells sports and outdoor recreation&nbsp;goods. The pandemic was a windfall for this company because of the popularity of outdoor activities. Strong pandemic sales helped the company chip away at its high debt levels. Analysts are worried the pandemic-inspired popularity of outdoor activities will wane, but Marshall thinks the outdoor lifestyle will stay in vogue.<blockquote>马歇尔还喜欢Academy Sports and OutdoorsASO,-0.91%，该公司销售运动和户外休闲用品。由于户外活动的流行，疫情对这家公司来说是一笔意外之财。强劲的大流行销售帮助该公司降低了高债务水平。分析师担心大流行引发的户外活动的受欢迎程度将会减弱，但马歇尔认为户外生活方式将继续流行。</blockquote> While many retail sector investors are awed by the power of Amazon.comAMZN,0.03%and WalmartWMT,0.03%,Motley Fool retail sector analyst Asit Sharma favors niche chains that have mastered the “direct to consumer” sales model. They offer great stores and solid products, but also the mix of delivery options that shoppers want – including in-store pickup of items bought online.<blockquote>虽然许多零售行业投资者对亚马逊MAMZN(0.03%)和沃尔玛WMT(0.03%)的力量感到敬畏，但Motley Fool零售行业分析师Asit Sharma更青睐掌握“直接面向消费者”销售模式的利基连锁店。他们提供很棒的商店和可靠的产品，但也提供购物者想要的送货选择组合——包括在店内提货网上购买的商品。</blockquote> “The retail sector gets a perennial bad rap because everyone is focused on yesterday’s story, that Amazon and Walmart are taking out all physical stores,” says Sharma. But that’s not the case. Many retailers provide a mix of excellent in-store experiences and unique products that the two retail giants can’t really offer.<blockquote>夏尔马说：“零售业常年受到负面评价，因为每个人都在关注昨天的故事，即亚马逊和沃尔玛正在关闭所有实体店。”但事实并非如此。许多零售商提供出色的店内体验和独特的产品，这是这两家零售巨头无法真正提供的。</blockquote> Here, Sharma cites Lululemon AthleticaLULU,-0.88%.“We love the fact that the company spends on its own research and development innovation on the fabric side.” Stores give consumers a chance to check out the custom fabrics in person.<blockquote>在这里，Sharma引用了Lululemon AthleticaLULU，-0.88%。“我们喜欢该公司在面料方面投入自己的研发创新。”商店给消费者一个亲自检查定制面料的机会。</blockquote> Sharma also favors Yeti HoldingsYETI,-1.92%,which sells coolers, “drinkware” and outdoor equipment. For a larger cap name, consider the popular retail giant TargetTGT,-0.24%for its “everything under one roof” approach to retail.<blockquote>夏尔马还青睐Yeti HoldingsYETI，-1.92%，该公司销售冷却器、“饮品”和户外设备。对于较大的股票名称，请考虑受欢迎的零售巨头TargetTGT，-0.24%，因其“一切都在一个屋檐下”的零售方式。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>6 reasons this is a fresh multiyear bull market and 6 stocks in the surprising sector you should favor<blockquote>这是一个新的多年牛市的6个原因以及您应该青睐的令人惊讶的行业中的6只股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n6 reasons this is a fresh multiyear bull market and 6 stocks in the surprising sector you should favor<blockquote>这是一个新的多年牛市的6个原因以及您应该青睐的令人惊讶的行业中的6只股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-10-08 22:44\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n Stock-market pessimism and excess consumer buying power point to retail stocks. Nothing like a little October turbulence to help the market’s weak hands get in touch with their inner bears.<blockquote>股市悲观情绪和消费者过度购买给零售股带来了动力。没有什么比十月的一点动荡更能帮助市场的弱者与内心的空头取得联系了。</blockquote> But don’t let their negativity rub off on you. We’re still near the beginning of what will be a multiyear bull market. Here are six reasons to buy stocks now, and six names to consider in one of the best sectors to own at the moment.<blockquote>但是不要让他们的消极影响到你。我们仍接近多年牛市的开始。以下是现在购买股票的六个理由，以及目前最值得考虑的行业之一的六个名字。</blockquote> 1. Sentiment has gotten bearish enough<blockquote>1.情绪已经变得足够悲观</blockquote> I regularly track investor sentiment in my stock letter (details and link in bio below) to make contrarian “calls” on the market. While most of your money should be in long-term holdings, timing entries when most people are bearish gives you an edge. That is the case now. Sentiment is not extremely negative, but it fell enough this week to trigger a buy signal in my system.<blockquote>我定期在我的股票信中跟踪投资者情绪（详细信息和链接见下面的简历），以在市场上进行逆向“评级”。虽然你的大部分资金应该长期持有，但在大多数人看跌的时候入场会给你带来优势。现在就是这样。情绪并不是极其负面，但本周下跌足以在我的系统中触发买入信号。</blockquote> It’s also worth pointing out that major media figures turned pretty negative this week, another good contrarian signal. (I won’t name names.) And the fact that their negativity is a bullish signal in my book doesn’t mean I think they are dense. It’s just that high-profile media commentators are consensus sponges. It’s an occupational hazard – which we can use to our advantage as investors.<blockquote>还值得指出的是，主要媒体数据本周变得相当负面，这是另一个良好的逆向信号。（我就不指名道姓了。）而他们的消极在我的书里是看涨信号的事实，并不意味着我认为他们是密集的。只是高调的媒体评论员是共识海绵。这是一种职业危害——作为投资者，我们可以利用这一点。</blockquote> Pick your favorite popular financial media talking heads, then do the opposite whenever they turn consistently negative — or positive.<blockquote>挑选你最喜欢的流行财经媒体发言人，然后在他们持续消极或积极时反其道而行之。</blockquote> 2. Seasonality is in our favor<blockquote>2.季节性对我们有利</blockquote> The worst month for stocks is October, and the weakest days are Oct. 10 and Oct. 11. Then this bleak month is followed by the seasonally strong January-May phase when the market is bolstered by new money coming in. In between, November and December can be strong as stocks rebound from October weakness and the end of the mutual-fund tax-loss selling season. That’s finished at the end of October.<blockquote>股市最糟糕的月份是10月，最疲软的日子是10月10日和10月11日。然后，这个惨淡的月份之后是季节性强劲的1月至5月阶段，此时市场受到新资金流入的支撑。在此期间，随着股市从10月份的疲软中反弹以及共同基金税收损失销售季节的结束，11月和12月可能会表现强劲。那是十月底完成的。</blockquote> 3. COVID is rolling over<blockquote>3.新冠疫情正在蔓延</blockquote> It’s no secret that case counts and hospitalizations are down sharply. Last year, the cold weather did not usher in a winter COVID flu season. So, it’s not too crazy to expect the same thing this year, especially given all the people who have been vaccinated or infected. Reopening will help boost the economy.<blockquote>众所周知，病例数和住院人数急剧下降。去年，寒冷的天气并没有迎来冬季COVID流感季节。所以，今年期待同样的事情并不太疯狂，尤其是考虑到所有已经接种疫苗或被感染的人。重新开放将有助于提振经济。</blockquote> 4. A correction may have already happened<blockquote>4.修正可能已经发生</blockquote> Since the summer, the market has experienced rolling corrections in various sectors. The Russell 2000RUT,+0.14%was down over 10% in August, the definition of a correction. Cyclicals, retail, tech and so forth have all been hit. As of early October, 90% or more of S&amp;P 500SPX,-0.05%and NasdaqCOMP,-0.28%stocks had fallen at least 10% from 2021 highs, notes Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles SchwabSCHW,+1.47%.<blockquote>入夏以来，市场经历了各板块的滚动回调。罗素2000RUT,+0.14%8月份下跌超过10%，这是回调的定义。周期性、零售、科技等都受到了打击。嘉信理财首席投资策略师Liz Ann Sonders指出，截至10月初，90%或更多的标准普尔500SPX(-0.05%)和纳斯达克综合指数(-0.28%)股票已较2021年高点下跌至少10%，+1.47%。</blockquote> In other words, while everyone was looking for a correction, it may have already happened. The market has a funny way of tricking most people most of the time, this way.<blockquote>换句话说，当所有人都在寻找修正时，它可能已经发生了。大多数时候，市场有一种有趣的方式来欺骗大多数人，就是这种方式。</blockquote> 5. There’s been strong household formation<blockquote>5.家庭结构强劲</blockquote> Millennials are finally giving up on the parents’ basement – if there was ever any truth to that cliché.<blockquote>千禧一代终于放弃了父母的地下室——如果这种陈词滥调有任何真实性的话。</blockquote> What is true: They’re entering the prime age for marriage and family. Plus, the economy is booming so they feel confident enough to make the plunge into homeownership.<blockquote>事实是：他们正在进入婚姻和家庭的黄金年龄。此外，经济正在蓬勃发展，所以他们有足够的信心投入到住房所有权。</blockquote> The upshot: Household formation is now at about two million per year, more than double the rate for the past five years. Home buyers have to purchase a lot of stuff to fill up those new houses. That’s a built-in economy booster.<blockquote>结果是：现在每年大约有200万个家庭组成，是过去五年的两倍多。购房者不得不购买很多东西来填满这些新房子。这是一个内置的经济助推器。</blockquote> 6. The consumer is scared, locked and loaded<blockquote>6.消费者害怕，锁定和装载</blockquote> There are at least a half-dozen natural sources of stimulus in the economy ready to drive growth whether the Fed tapers or not, points out Jim Paulsen, an economist and strategist at Leuthold Group. One is that household formation, mentioned above. Another is the low level of inventories at companies – which have to restock big time. But to me, the big one is the consumer, simply because consumer spending is the big driver of our economy.<blockquote>Leuthold Group经济学家兼策略师吉姆·保尔森(Jim Paulsen)指出，无论美联储是否缩减规模，经济中至少有六种自然刺激来源可以推动经济增长。一个是上面提到的家庭结构。另一个原因是公司库存水平较低——它们必须大量补货。但对我来说，最大的因素是消费者，因为消费者支出是我们经济的主要驱动力。</blockquote> The bottom line: Consumer are scared. But they have a ton of buying power to tap when their anxieties ease — perhaps as COVID continues to roll over.<blockquote>底线是：消费者感到害怕。但当他们的焦虑缓解时，他们有大量的购买力可以利用——也许是随着新冠疫情的继续蔓延。</blockquote> Now a little more detail.August consumer sentimentwas at the lowest level since the pandemic began, as measured by the University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment. Itnudged up in September, but it is still low.<blockquote>现在更多细节。根据密歇根大学消费者信心指数衡量，8月份消费者信心处于大流行开始以来的最低水平。9月份有所上升，但仍处于低位。</blockquote> At the same time, consumers have a tremendous amount of buying power. Personal savings are at about 12% of GDP. That’s twice the longer-term average of around 6%-7%, notes Paulsen. Net worth compared to income is at record highs.<blockquote>与此同时，消费者拥有巨大的购买力。个人储蓄约占GDP的12%。保尔森指出，这是6%-7%左右的长期平均水平的两倍。净资产与收入相比创历史新高。</blockquote> Don’t make the mistake of thinking that’s just the rich getting richer because of the stock market. Homes are up a lot too, and most people own homes. The ratio of household debt to personal income is the lowest since 1985.<blockquote>不要错误地认为这只是富人因为股市而变得更富。房价也涨了很多，大多数人都有自己的房子。家庭债务与个人收入之比为1985年以来最低。</blockquote> “Consumers are scared and loaded with untapped buying power,” says Paulsen. “This pessimistic mindset combined with the excess buying power has historically produced solid market gains with infrequent declines,” he says. “This ratio portrays a bull market that is still in its infancy.”<blockquote>“消费者感到害怕，并且充满了未开发的购买力，”保尔森说。他表示：“这种悲观心态加上购买力过剩，从历史上看，市场出现了稳健的上涨，但很少出现下跌。”“这个比率描绘了一个仍处于起步阶段的牛市。”</blockquote> Stocks&nbsp;to buy<blockquote>S托克斯购买</blockquote> Since the consumer is such a big part of this dynamic, I say go with retail stocks. They’ve been underperforming, which also makes them look attractive.<blockquote>由于消费者是这种动态的重要组成部分，我建议选择零售股。他们表现不佳，这也让他们看起来很有吸引力。</blockquote> Morningstar cites Bath &amp; Body WorksBBWI,-0.74%as a retailer with a moat and trading at a discount. The body care and home fragrance retailer has a four-star rating because its stock is trading so far below Morningstar’s “fair value” estimate of $79 for the name.<blockquote>晨星公司将Bath&amp;Body WorksBBWI,-0.74%视为一家拥有护城河且交易折扣的零售商。这家身体护理和家用香水零售商获得四星级评级，因为其股票交易价格远低于晨星公司对该名称79美元的“公允价值”估计。</blockquote> As for the moat, analyst Jaime Katz cites the company’s strong brand, its leadership position in its space, and the 30% average return on invested capital, well above its 8% weighted average cost of capital.<blockquote>至于护城河，分析师Jaime Katz列举了该公司强大的品牌、在该领域的领导地位以及30%的平均投资资本回报率，远高于其8%的加权平均资本成本。</blockquote> Eric Marshall, a portfolio manager at the Hodges Small Cap fundHDPSX,+1.83%,likes the apparel retailer American Eagle OutfittersAEO,0.36%,which is down over 35% from highs this year. The company posted record revenue of $1.19 billion in the second quarter, up 35% year over year.<blockquote>Hodges Small Cap fundHDPSX(+1.83%)的投资组合经理埃里克·马歇尔(Eric Marshall)看好服装零售商American Eagle OutfittersAEO(0.36%)，该股较今年高点下跌了35%以上。该公司第二季度营收达到创纪录的11.9亿美元，同比增长35%。</blockquote> The core growth driver is its popular Aerie brand. Marshall thinks the company will earn over $2 a share this year, which makes American Eagle stock a bargain at around 13 times forward earnings.<blockquote>核心增长动力是其广受欢迎的Aerie品牌。马歇尔认为该公司今年每股收益将超过2美元，这使得American Eagle股票的预期市盈率约为13倍，非常便宜。</blockquote> Marshall is worth listening to because he has a hot hand. His Hodges small-cap fund is up 31% this year, beating its small blend category and Russell 2000 index benchmark by 12 to 18 percentage points, according to Morningstar.<blockquote>马歇尔值得一听，因为他有一双热情的手。据晨星公司称，他的Hodges小型股基金今年上涨了31%，比小型混合基金和罗素2000指数基准高出12至18个百分点。</blockquote> Marshall also likes Academy Sports and OutdoorsASO,-0.91%,which sells sports and outdoor recreation&nbsp;goods. The pandemic was a windfall for this company because of the popularity of outdoor activities. Strong pandemic sales helped the company chip away at its high debt levels. Analysts are worried the pandemic-inspired popularity of outdoor activities will wane, but Marshall thinks the outdoor lifestyle will stay in vogue.<blockquote>马歇尔还喜欢Academy Sports and OutdoorsASO,-0.91%，该公司销售运动和户外休闲用品。由于户外活动的流行，疫情对这家公司来说是一笔意外之财。强劲的大流行销售帮助该公司降低了高债务水平。分析师担心大流行引发的户外活动的受欢迎程度将会减弱，但马歇尔认为户外生活方式将继续流行。</blockquote> While many retail sector investors are awed by the power of Amazon.comAMZN,0.03%and WalmartWMT,0.03%,Motley Fool retail sector analyst Asit Sharma favors niche chains that have mastered the “direct to consumer” sales model. They offer great stores and solid products, but also the mix of delivery options that shoppers want – including in-store pickup of items bought online.<blockquote>虽然许多零售行业投资者对亚马逊MAMZN(0.03%)和沃尔玛WMT(0.03%)的力量感到敬畏，但Motley Fool零售行业分析师Asit Sharma更青睐掌握“直接面向消费者”销售模式的利基连锁店。他们提供很棒的商店和可靠的产品，但也提供购物者想要的送货选择组合——包括在店内提货网上购买的商品。</blockquote> “The retail sector gets a perennial bad rap because everyone is focused on yesterday’s story, that Amazon and Walmart are taking out all physical stores,” says Sharma. But that’s not the case. Many retailers provide a mix of excellent in-store experiences and unique products that the two retail giants can’t really offer.<blockquote>夏尔马说：“零售业常年受到负面评价，因为每个人都在关注昨天的故事，即亚马逊和沃尔玛正在关闭所有实体店。”但事实并非如此。许多零售商提供出色的店内体验和独特的产品，这是这两家零售巨头无法真正提供的。</blockquote> Here, Sharma cites Lululemon AthleticaLULU,-0.88%.“We love the fact that the company spends on its own research and development innovation on the fabric side.” Stores give consumers a chance to check out the custom fabrics in person.<blockquote>在这里，Sharma引用了Lululemon AthleticaLULU，-0.88%。“我们喜欢该公司在面料方面投入自己的研发创新。”商店给消费者一个亲自检查定制面料的机会。</blockquote> Sharma also favors Yeti HoldingsYETI,-1.92%,which sells coolers, “drinkware” and outdoor equipment. For a larger cap name, consider the popular retail giant TargetTGT,-0.24%for its “everything under one roof” approach to retail.<blockquote>夏尔马还青睐Yeti HoldingsYETI，-1.92%，该公司销售冷却器、“饮品”和户外设备。对于较大的股票名称，请考虑受欢迎的零售巨头TargetTGT，-0.24%，因其“一切都在一个屋檐下”的零售方式。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/6-reasons-this-is-a-fresh-multiyear-bull-market-and-6-stocks-in-the-surprising-sector-you-should-favor-11633701844?siteid=yhoof2\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/6-reasons-this-is-a-fresh-multiyear-bull-market-and-6-stocks-in-the-surprising-sector-you-should-favor-11633701844?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133780035","content_text":"Stock-market pessimism and excess consumer buying power point to retail stocks.\n\nNothing like a little October turbulence to help the market’s weak hands get in touch with their inner bears.\nBut don’t let their negativity rub off on you. We’re still near the beginning of what will be a multiyear bull market. Here are six reasons to buy stocks now, and six names to consider in one of the best sectors to own at the moment.\n1. Sentiment has gotten bearish enough\nI regularly track investor sentiment in my stock letter (details and link in bio below) to make contrarian “calls” on the market. While most of your money should be in long-term holdings, timing entries when most people are bearish gives you an edge. That is the case now. Sentiment is not extremely negative, but it fell enough this week to trigger a buy signal in my system.\nIt’s also worth pointing out that major media figures turned pretty negative this week, another good contrarian signal. (I won’t name names.) And the fact that their negativity is a bullish signal in my book doesn’t mean I think they are dense. It’s just that high-profile media commentators are consensus sponges. It’s an occupational hazard – which we can use to our advantage as investors.\nPick your favorite popular financial media talking heads, then do the opposite whenever they turn consistently negative — or positive.\n2. Seasonality is in our favor\nThe worst month for stocks is October, and the weakest days are Oct. 10 and Oct. 11. Then this bleak month is followed by the seasonally strong January-May phase when the market is bolstered by new money coming in. In between, November and December can be strong as stocks rebound from October weakness and the end of the mutual-fund tax-loss selling season. That’s finished at the end of October.\n3. COVID is rolling over\nIt’s no secret that case counts and hospitalizations are down sharply. Last year, the cold weather did not usher in a winter COVID flu season. So, it’s not too crazy to expect the same thing this year, especially given all the people who have been vaccinated or infected. Reopening will help boost the economy.\n4. A correction may have already happened\nSince the summer, the market has experienced rolling corrections in various sectors. The Russell 2000RUT,+0.14%was down over 10% in August, the definition of a correction. Cyclicals, retail, tech and so forth have all been hit. As of early October, 90% or more of S&P 500SPX,-0.05%and NasdaqCOMP,-0.28%stocks had fallen at least 10% from 2021 highs, notes Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles SchwabSCHW,+1.47%.\nIn other words, while everyone was looking for a correction, it may have already happened. The market has a funny way of tricking most people most of the time, this way.\n5. There’s been strong household formation\nMillennials are finally giving up on the parents’ basement – if there was ever any truth to that cliché.\nWhat is true: They’re entering the prime age for marriage and family. Plus, the economy is booming so they feel confident enough to make the plunge into homeownership.\nThe upshot: Household formation is now at about two million per year, more than double the rate for the past five years. Home buyers have to purchase a lot of stuff to fill up those new houses. That’s a built-in economy booster.\n6. The consumer is scared, locked and loaded\nThere are at least a half-dozen natural sources of stimulus in the economy ready to drive growth whether the Fed tapers or not, points out Jim Paulsen, an economist and strategist at Leuthold Group. One is that household formation, mentioned above. Another is the low level of inventories at companies – which have to restock big time. But to me, the big one is the consumer, simply because consumer spending is the big driver of our economy.\nThe bottom line: Consumer are scared. But they have a ton of buying power to tap when their anxieties ease — perhaps as COVID continues to roll over.\nNow a little more detail.August consumer sentimentwas at the lowest level since the pandemic began, as measured by the University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment. Itnudged up in September, but it is still low.\nAt the same time, consumers have a tremendous amount of buying power. Personal savings are at about 12% of GDP. That’s twice the longer-term average of around 6%-7%, notes Paulsen. Net worth compared to income is at record highs.\nDon’t make the mistake of thinking that’s just the rich getting richer because of the stock market. Homes are up a lot too, and most people own homes. The ratio of household debt to personal income is the lowest since 1985.\n“Consumers are scared and loaded with untapped buying power,” says Paulsen. “This pessimistic mindset combined with the excess buying power has historically produced solid market gains with infrequent declines,” he says. “This ratio portrays a bull market that is still in its infancy.”\nStocks to buy\nSince the consumer is such a big part of this dynamic, I say go with retail stocks. They’ve been underperforming, which also makes them look attractive.\nMorningstar cites Bath & Body WorksBBWI,-0.74%as a retailer with a moat and trading at a discount. The body care and home fragrance retailer has a four-star rating because its stock is trading so far below Morningstar’s “fair value” estimate of $79 for the name.\nAs for the moat, analyst Jaime Katz cites the company’s strong brand, its leadership position in its space, and the 30% average return on invested capital, well above its 8% weighted average cost of capital.\nEric Marshall, a portfolio manager at the Hodges Small Cap fundHDPSX,+1.83%,likes the apparel retailer American Eagle OutfittersAEO,0.36%,which is down over 35% from highs this year. The company posted record revenue of $1.19 billion in the second quarter, up 35% year over year.\nThe core growth driver is its popular Aerie brand. Marshall thinks the company will earn over $2 a share this year, which makes American Eagle stock a bargain at around 13 times forward earnings.\nMarshall is worth listening to because he has a hot hand. His Hodges small-cap fund is up 31% this year, beating its small blend category and Russell 2000 index benchmark by 12 to 18 percentage points, according to Morningstar.\nMarshall also likes Academy Sports and OutdoorsASO,-0.91%,which sells sports and outdoor recreation goods. The pandemic was a windfall for this company because of the popularity of outdoor activities. Strong pandemic sales helped the company chip away at its high debt levels. Analysts are worried the pandemic-inspired popularity of outdoor activities will wane, but Marshall thinks the outdoor lifestyle will stay in vogue.\nWhile many retail sector investors are awed by the power of Amazon.comAMZN,0.03%and WalmartWMT,0.03%,Motley Fool retail sector analyst Asit Sharma favors niche chains that have mastered the “direct to consumer” sales model. They offer great stores and solid products, but also the mix of delivery options that shoppers want – including in-store pickup of items bought online.\n“The retail sector gets a perennial bad rap because everyone is focused on yesterday’s story, that Amazon and Walmart are taking out all physical stores,” says Sharma. But that’s not the case. Many retailers provide a mix of excellent in-store experiences and unique products that the two retail giants can’t really offer.\nHere, Sharma cites Lululemon AthleticaLULU,-0.88%.“We love the fact that the company spends on its own research and development innovation on the fabric side.” Stores give consumers a chance to check out the custom fabrics in person.\nSharma also favors Yeti HoldingsYETI,-1.92%,which sells coolers, “drinkware” and outdoor equipment. For a larger cap name, consider the popular retail giant TargetTGT,-0.24%for its “everything under one roof” approach to retail.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2693,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}