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2021-08-03

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Fed Could Start ‘Tapering’ Soon. Don’t Expect It to Cause Havoc for the Stock Market This Time Around.<blockquote>美联储可能很快就会开始“缩减”。不要指望这次会对股市造成严重破坏。</blockquote>

The Federal Reserve is poised to reduce the size of its bond-buying program, so stocks could head lo

Fed Could Start ‘Tapering’ Soon. Don’t Expect It to Cause Havoc for the Stock Market This Time Around.<blockquote>美联储可能很快就会开始“缩减”。不要指望这次会对股市造成严重破坏。</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":807366008,"tweetId":"807366008","gmtCreate":1628001072704,"gmtModify":1631884233904,"author":{"id":3574983958126249,"idStr":"3574983958126249","authorId":3574983958126249,"authorIdStr":"3574983958126249","name":"Investendo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0570040a211beb7ab20b321dea4de68","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":10,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>👍</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>👍</body></html>","text":"👍","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/807366008","repostId":1145562808,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1145562808","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628000397,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1145562808?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-03 22:19","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Fed Could Start ‘Tapering’ Soon. Don’t Expect It to Cause Havoc for the Stock Market This Time Around.<blockquote>美联储可能很快就会开始“缩减”。不要指望这次会对股市造成严重破坏。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1145562808","media":"Barron's","summary":"The Federal Reserve is poised to reduce the size of its bond-buying program, so stocks could head lo","content":"The Federal Reserve is poised to reduce the size of its bond-buying program, so stocks could head lower soon. The pain may not be acute, though, because investors generally expect the Fed to do just that.<blockquote>美联储准备缩减债券购买计划的规模，因此股市可能很快就会走低。不过，痛苦可能并不严重，因为投资者普遍预计美联储会这么做。</blockquote> It was a different scenario in May 2013, when Ben Bernanke, the Fed’s chief at the time, told Congress that if economic conditions kept improving, and policy makers were confident that would continue, the bank could pare back its buying. Bond yields leapt, and the S&amp;P 500 fell 5% in a five-day stretch in an episode known&nbsp;as the Taper Tantrum.<blockquote>2013年5月的情况有所不同，当时美联储主席本·伯南克(Ben Bernanke)告诉国会，如果经济状况持续改善，并且政策制定者有信心这种情况会持续下去，美联储可能会削减购买量。债券收益率飙升，标普500在五天内下跌5%，这一事件被称为“缩减恐慌”。</blockquote> As bond yields rose, stocks became relatively less attractive, especially because the bank was signaling it would provide less support to markets and the economy. The Fed ultimately announced a reduction of its buying in December that year.<blockquote>随着债券收益率上升，股票的吸引力相对下降，特别是因为央行表示将减少对市场和经济的支持。美联储最终在当年12月宣布减少购买。</blockquote> This time, investors are already expecting the Fed to taper. The central bank has telegraphed the change in monetary policy on several occasions. Government- bond dealers expect the Fed’s monthly bond purchases, part of its effort to prop up the economy as the pandemic struck, to fall from $120 billion currently to zero by the start of 2023, according to a Goldman Sachs survey.<blockquote>这一次，投资者已经在预期美联储会缩减规模。央行已经多次发出货币政策变化的信号。高盛(Goldman Sachs)的一项调查显示，政府债券交易商预计，到2023年初，美联储每月的债券购买量将从目前的1200亿美元降至零，这是其在疫情爆发时支撑经济的努力的一部分。</blockquote> Stocks are already valued in a way that makes higher bond yields seem plausible. The S&amp;P 500’s equity-risk premium—the percentage return from earnings and dividends for the average stock on the index, minus the yield on 10-year Treasury debt, is currently at about 6 percentage points, according to Goldman Sachs. The number represents the extra return relative to safe bonds that investors demand for being in equities.<blockquote>股票的估值已经使得更高的债券收益率似乎是合理的。根据高盛的数据，标普500的股票风险溢价——该指数中平均股票的收益和股息回报率减去10年期国债收益率的百分比，目前约为6个百分点。该数字代表了投资者投资股票所需的相对于安全债券的额外回报。</blockquote> The figure is higher than the sub 6% levels often seen since 2010, implying that even if bond yields move higher, narrowing the equity-risk premium, stocks would still offer relatively strong returns in historical terms. “Market participants appear aware of tapering,” writes David Kostin, chief U.S. equity strategist at Goldman Sachs. “The equity risk premium remains high versus history.”<blockquote>这一数字高于2010年以来经常出现的低于6%的水平，这意味着即使债券收益率走高，缩小股票风险溢价，从历史角度来看，股票仍将提供相对强劲的回报。高盛首席美国股票策略师David Kostin写道：“市场参与者似乎意识到了缩减购债规模。”“与历史相比，股票风险溢价仍然很高。”</blockquote> Others agree that markets are pricing in tapering by the Fed. “An orderly and transparent removal of easy monetary policy should not be disruptive, particularly if it’s undertaken in reaction to improvements in the underlying economy, “ wrote Jason Pride, chief investment officer for private wealth at Glenmede.<blockquote>其他人同意市场正在消化美联储的缩减规模。Glenmede私人财富首席投资官贾森·普莱德(Jason Pride)写道：“有序、透明地取消宽松货币政策不应具有破坏性，特别是如果它是为了应对基础经济的改善而采取的。”</blockquote> At the very least, investors should monitor how much money the Fed pulls out from the bond market and how quickly it does so. A sharp selloff in response to the simple news that the Fed is tapering is far from certain.<blockquote>至少，投资者应该监控美联储从债券市场撤出多少资金以及撤出的速度。美联储正在缩减购债规模这一简单消息引发的大幅抛售还远未确定。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed Could Start ‘Tapering’ Soon. Don’t Expect It to Cause Havoc for the Stock Market This Time Around.<blockquote>美联储可能很快就会开始“缩减”。不要指望这次会对股市造成严重破坏。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed Could Start ‘Tapering’ Soon. Don’t Expect It to Cause Havoc for the Stock Market This Time Around.<blockquote>美联储可能很快就会开始“缩减”。不要指望这次会对股市造成严重破坏。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarron's2021-08-03 22:19\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe Federal Reserve is poised to reduce the size of its bond-buying program, so stocks could head lower soon. The pain may not be acute, though, because investors generally expect the Fed to do just that.<blockquote>美联储准备缩减债券购买计划的规模，因此股市可能很快就会走低。不过，痛苦可能并不严重，因为投资者普遍预计美联储会这么做。</blockquote> It was a different scenario in May 2013, when Ben Bernanke, the Fed’s chief at the time, told Congress that if economic conditions kept improving, and policy makers were confident that would continue, the bank could pare back its buying. Bond yields leapt, and the S&amp;P 500 fell 5% in a five-day stretch in an episode known&nbsp;as the Taper Tantrum.<blockquote>2013年5月的情况有所不同，当时美联储主席本·伯南克(Ben Bernanke)告诉国会，如果经济状况持续改善，并且政策制定者有信心这种情况会持续下去，美联储可能会削减购买量。债券收益率飙升，标普500在五天内下跌5%，这一事件被称为“缩减恐慌”。</blockquote> As bond yields rose, stocks became relatively less attractive, especially because the bank was signaling it would provide less support to markets and the economy. The Fed ultimately announced a reduction of its buying in December that year.<blockquote>随着债券收益率上升，股票的吸引力相对下降，特别是因为央行表示将减少对市场和经济的支持。美联储最终在当年12月宣布减少购买。</blockquote> This time, investors are already expecting the Fed to taper. The central bank has telegraphed the change in monetary policy on several occasions. Government- bond dealers expect the Fed’s monthly bond purchases, part of its effort to prop up the economy as the pandemic struck, to fall from $120 billion currently to zero by the start of 2023, according to a Goldman Sachs survey.<blockquote>这一次，投资者已经在预期美联储会缩减规模。央行已经多次发出货币政策变化的信号。高盛(Goldman Sachs)的一项调查显示，政府债券交易商预计，到2023年初，美联储每月的债券购买量将从目前的1200亿美元降至零，这是其在疫情爆发时支撑经济的努力的一部分。</blockquote> Stocks are already valued in a way that makes higher bond yields seem plausible. The S&amp;P 500’s equity-risk premium—the percentage return from earnings and dividends for the average stock on the index, minus the yield on 10-year Treasury debt, is currently at about 6 percentage points, according to Goldman Sachs. The number represents the extra return relative to safe bonds that investors demand for being in equities.<blockquote>股票的估值已经使得更高的债券收益率似乎是合理的。根据高盛的数据，标普500的股票风险溢价——该指数中平均股票的收益和股息回报率减去10年期国债收益率的百分比，目前约为6个百分点。该数字代表了投资者投资股票所需的相对于安全债券的额外回报。</blockquote> The figure is higher than the sub 6% levels often seen since 2010, implying that even if bond yields move higher, narrowing the equity-risk premium, stocks would still offer relatively strong returns in historical terms. “Market participants appear aware of tapering,” writes David Kostin, chief U.S. equity strategist at Goldman Sachs. “The equity risk premium remains high versus history.”<blockquote>这一数字高于2010年以来经常出现的低于6%的水平，这意味着即使债券收益率走高，缩小股票风险溢价，从历史角度来看，股票仍将提供相对强劲的回报。高盛首席美国股票策略师David Kostin写道：“市场参与者似乎意识到了缩减购债规模。”“与历史相比，股票风险溢价仍然很高。”</blockquote> Others agree that markets are pricing in tapering by the Fed. “An orderly and transparent removal of easy monetary policy should not be disruptive, particularly if it’s undertaken in reaction to improvements in the underlying economy, “ wrote Jason Pride, chief investment officer for private wealth at Glenmede.<blockquote>其他人同意市场正在消化美联储的缩减规模。Glenmede私人财富首席投资官贾森·普莱德(Jason Pride)写道：“有序、透明地取消宽松货币政策不应具有破坏性，特别是如果它是为了应对基础经济的改善而采取的。”</blockquote> At the very least, investors should monitor how much money the Fed pulls out from the bond market and how quickly it does so. A sharp selloff in response to the simple news that the Fed is tapering is far from certain.<blockquote>至少，投资者应该监控美联储从债券市场撤出多少资金以及撤出的速度。美联储正在缩减购债规模这一简单消息引发的大幅抛售还远未确定。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/federal-reserve-stocks-tapering-51627939038?mod=hp_LEAD_2_B_1\">Barron's</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/federal-reserve-stocks-tapering-51627939038?mod=hp_LEAD_2_B_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1145562808","content_text":"The Federal Reserve is poised to reduce the size of its bond-buying program, so stocks could head lower soon. The pain may not be acute, though, because investors generally expect the Fed to do just that.\nIt was a different scenario in May 2013, when Ben Bernanke, the Fed’s chief at the time, told Congress that if economic conditions kept improving, and policy makers were confident that would continue, the bank could pare back its buying. Bond yields leapt, and the S&P 500 fell 5% in a five-day stretch in an episode known as the Taper Tantrum.\nAs bond yields rose, stocks became relatively less attractive, especially because the bank was signaling it would provide less support to markets and the economy. The Fed ultimately announced a reduction of its buying in December that year.\nThis time, investors are already expecting the Fed to taper. The central bank has telegraphed the change in monetary policy on several occasions. Government- bond dealers expect the Fed’s monthly bond purchases, part of its effort to prop up the economy as the pandemic struck, to fall from $120 billion currently to zero by the start of 2023, according to a Goldman Sachs survey.\nStocks are already valued in a way that makes higher bond yields seem plausible. The S&P 500’s equity-risk premium—the percentage return from earnings and dividends for the average stock on the index, minus the yield on 10-year Treasury debt, is currently at about 6 percentage points, according to Goldman Sachs. The number represents the extra return relative to safe bonds that investors demand for being in equities.\nThe figure is higher than the sub 6% levels often seen since 2010, implying that even if bond yields move higher, narrowing the equity-risk premium, stocks would still offer relatively strong returns in historical terms. “Market participants appear aware of tapering,” writes David Kostin, chief U.S. equity strategist at Goldman Sachs. “The equity risk premium remains high versus history.”\nOthers agree that markets are pricing in tapering by the Fed. “An orderly and transparent removal of easy monetary policy should not be disruptive, particularly if it’s undertaken in reaction to improvements in the underlying economy, “ wrote Jason Pride, chief investment officer for private wealth at Glenmede.\nAt the very least, investors should monitor how much money the Fed pulls out from the bond market and how quickly it does so. A sharp selloff in response to the simple news that the Fed is tapering is far from certain.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1239,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}