Now is a good time to buy PP._老虎社区_美港股上老虎

HotTomato
2021-07-28

Now is a good time to buy PP.

How Plug Power Could Generate 7x Returns Over The Next Decade<blockquote>普拉格能源如何在未来十年创造7倍的回报</blockquote>

Summary PLUG is a leading hydrogen fuel cell turnkey provider in North American and European market

How Plug Power Could Generate 7x Returns Over The Next Decade<blockquote>普拉格能源如何在未来十年创造7倍的回报</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":803399669,"tweetId":"803399669","gmtCreate":1627408016951,"gmtModify":1633765299375,"author":{"id":3577523568898939,"idStr":"3577523568898939","authorId":3577523568898939,"authorIdStr":"3577523568898939","name":"HotTomato","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a294e762db92dd5d1699a791361bb38","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":6,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Now is a good time to buy PP.&nbsp;</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Now is a good time to buy PP.&nbsp;</body></html>","text":"Now is a good time to buy PP.","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/803399669","repostId":1165178450,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1165178450","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627399581,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1165178450?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-27 23:26","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How Plug Power Could Generate 7x Returns Over The Next Decade<blockquote>普拉格能源如何在未来十年创造7倍的回报</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1165178450","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPLUG is a leading hydrogen fuel cell turnkey provider in North American and European market","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>PLUG is a leading hydrogen fuel cell turnkey provider in North American and European markets.</li> <li>The company boasts advanced technology and strong growth momentum.</li> <li>We outline the company's path to growing from a $15 billion market cap to a $100 billion market cap over the next decade.</li> <li>That said, PLUG still faces significant risks to its thesis that investors should keep in mind.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06bea0bef6d6ac8eab14c3fceb2cccae\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">JONGHO SHIN/iStock via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>PLUG是北美和欧洲市场领先的氢燃料电池交钥匙供应商。</li><li>公司拥有先进的技术和强劲的增长势头。</li><li>我们概述了该公司在未来十年从150亿美元市值增长到1000亿美元市值的道路。</li><li>尽管如此，PLUG的论点仍然面临着投资者应该牢记的重大风险。</li></ul>JONGHO SHIN/iStock来自Getty Images</blockquote> Plug Power (PLUG) is a leading hydrogen fuel cell turnkey provider in North American and European markets. The company boasts advanced technology and strong growth momentum which should propel it to significant appreciation over the long term. In this article we outline the company's path to growing from a $15 billion market cap to a $100 billion market cap (nearly 7x returns) over the next decade.<blockquote>普拉格能源(PLUG)是北美和欧洲市场领先的氢燃料电池交钥匙供应商。该公司拥有先进的技术和强劲的增长势头，这将推动其长期大幅升值。在本文中，我们概述了该公司在未来十年从150亿美元市值增长到1000亿美元市值（近7倍回报率）的道路。</blockquote> #1. Addressable Market Potential<blockquote>#1.潜在市场潜力</blockquote> With the&nbsp;massive tailwinds&nbsp;for green energy and ESG investing at the moment, the hydrogen fuel cell market is likely to enjoy strong growth momentum for many years to come.<blockquote>随着目前绿色能源和ESG投资的巨大推动力，氢燃料电池市场可能在未来许多年享有强劲的增长势头。</blockquote> First and foremost, the Biden administration has executed an aggressive about-face from the previous administration in its disposition towards clean energy and fossil fuels. Between executive orders and rejoining the Paris Climate Accords, the U.S. Government is increasingly incentivizing green energy investment and consumption. The European Union and China are also increasingly headed in this direction.<blockquote>首先，拜登政府在对清洁能源和化石燃料的态度上与上届政府进行了激进的大转变。在行政命令和重新加入巴黎气候协定之间，美国。政府越来越多地激励绿色能源投资和消费。欧盟和中国也越来越多地朝着这个方向前进。</blockquote> Second, the ESG investing movement has taken off to where it now accounts for an astonishing&nbsp;one-third of total assets under management&nbsp;in the United States. Given that so much capital is attracted to environmentally friendly investments, companies across the board - including in the hydrocarbon sector - are increasingly adopting policies that appeal to the environmentally-conscious investor.<blockquote>其次，ESG投资运动已经起飞，目前占美国管理总资产的三分之一，令人震惊。鉴于如此多的资本被吸引到环保投资中，包括碳氢化合物行业在内的所有公司都越来越多地采取吸引具有环保意识的投资者的政策。</blockquote> Third, the disruption and transformation of the automotive industry to reduce emissions is driving strong demand for new fuel technologies.<blockquote>第三，汽车行业为减少排放而进行的颠覆和转型正在推动对新燃料技术的强劲需求。</blockquote> Finally - largely due to the heavy investment and market demand - green technologies such as hydrogen fuel cells are&nbsp;seeing costs decline dramatically, making them increasingly competitive on the marketplace.<blockquote>最后，主要由于大量投资和市场需求，氢燃料电池等绿色技术的成本大幅下降，使其在市场上的竞争力越来越强。</blockquote> All of this should lead to continued strong growth in the sector. In fact, U.S. Hydrogen demand is&nbsp;expected&nbsp;to be 17 million metric tons per year by 2030 and 63 million metric tons by 2050, which is pretty substantial growth from the 10 million metric tons consumed in the U.S. last year. Globally, the hydrogen generation industry is&nbsp;expected&nbsp;to reach $201 billion by 2025 and should continue to grow rapidly in the decades to follow similar to how it is expected to grow in the U.S.<blockquote>所有这些都应该会导致该行业持续强劲增长。事实上，到2030年，美国的氢气需求预计将达到每年1700万吨，到2050年将达到6300万吨，这比美国去年的1000万吨消费量有了相当大的增长。在全球范围内，制氢行业预计到2025年将达到2010亿美元，并在接下来的几十年里继续快速增长，类似于美国的预期增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0541b1fd23777a900f3e1a1102206d7b\" tg-width=\"824\" tg-height=\"514\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> #2. Market Share Drivers<blockquote>#2.市场份额驱动因素</blockquote> We believe that PLUG has a strong chance at capturing a sizable portion of this massive addressable market for the following reasons.<blockquote>我们相信，由于以下原因，PLUG很有可能占领这个庞大的潜在市场的相当大一部分。</blockquote> First and foremost, it has advanced technology and early mover advantages in the space. It owns numerous hydrogen energy systems including proton exchange membrane fuel cells, hybrid batteries, hydrogen storage, hydrogen dispensing, and fuel processing. Its flagship product is the electric vehicle focused GenDrive system that is complemented by their GenFuel and GenCare systems.<blockquote>首先，它在该领域拥有先进的技术和先发优势。拥有质子交换膜燃料电池、混合动力电池、储氢、配氢、燃料加工等众多氢能系统。其旗舰产品是专注于电动汽车的GenDrive系统，并辅以GenFuel和GenCare系统。</blockquote> Second of all, it has a foothold in both North America and Europe which means that it has significantly more growth potential than if it was solely focused on a single continent. In fact, North America and Europe are likely to be the leaders in Hydrogen adaptation for the foreseeable future, so PLUG is well-positioned to capture a significant portion of the global market share.<blockquote>其次，它在北美和欧洲都有立足点，这意味着它比只专注于一个大陆具有更大的增长潜力。事实上，在可预见的未来，北美和欧洲很可能成为氢适应的领导者，因此PLUG处于有利地位，可以占领全球市场份额的很大一部分。</blockquote> Third, PLUG has strong growth momentum right now and is winning business from some of the biggest companies in the world, including Amazon (AMZN), Walmart (WMT), Home Depot (HD), and General Motors (GM) either currently using their products or expected to become customers in the near future. As a result, we expect the 76% year-over-year revenue growth in its most recent&nbsp;quarterly report&nbsp;(128% year-over-year growth in their fuel cell systems and related infrastructure segment) to be sustainable for the foreseeable future.<blockquote>第三，PLUG目前增长势头强劲，正在赢得世界上一些最大公司的业务，包括亚马逊(AMZN)、沃尔玛(WMT)、家得宝(HD)和通用汽车(GM)，这些公司目前正在使用他们的产品或预计在不久的将来成为客户。因此，我们预计其最新季度报告中76%的收入同比增长（燃料电池系统和相关基础设施部门同比增长128%）在可预见的未来将是可持续的。</blockquote> In fact,analysts expect&nbsp;revenue to grow by 57% in 2022, which should push the company to EBITDA profitability.<blockquote>事实上，分析师预计2022年收入将增长57%，这应该会推动该公司实现EBITDA盈利。</blockquote> #3. Valuation<blockquote>#3.估值</blockquote> While PLUG certainly operates in a hot industry and has numerous drivers that should enable it to capture significant market share, the company is also not cheap as it is currently running a loss.<blockquote>虽然PLUG确实在一个热门行业运营，并且拥有众多驱动因素，应该使其能够占领重要的市场份额，但该公司的价格也不便宜，因为它目前正在亏损。</blockquote> On the other hand, its EV/revenue figure is not outlandish given their growth runway as PLUG currently trades at 29.8x expected 2021 sales and 21x expected 2022 sales.<blockquote>另一方面，考虑到其增长跑道，其EV/收入数据并不奇怪，因为PLUG目前的交易价格是2021年预期销售额的29.8倍，2022年预期销售额的21倍。</blockquote> In fact, with a product gross margin of 38% that expanded by a whopping 600 basis points in PLUG's most recent earnings release, its profitability potential is significant. Overall, PLUG's gross margin is expected to be a fairly weak 9.71% in 2021, but is expected to nearly double in 2022 to 18.93%. This is also a massive increase from 2017 when the gross margin was a mere 1.2%. The EBITDA margin is also expected to be a somewhat respectable 10.7% in 2022 as well.<blockquote>事实上，PLUG最近发布的财报中，产品毛利率为38%，增长了600个基点，其盈利潜力巨大。总体而言，预计2021年PLUG的毛利率为相当疲软的9.71%，但预计2022年将增长近一倍，达到18.93%。这也比2017年的毛利率仅为1.2%大幅增长。预计2022年的EBITDA利润率也将达到相当可观的10.7%。</blockquote> If PLUG can continue to leverage its strong technology and massive expected economies of scale in the coming years, we think it is reasonable for it to push gross margins to 30% and net margins to 20% by 2032. Meanwhile, if it can capture even just 3% of global hydrogen market share by 2032 and the global market reaches roughly $390 billion by then (it is expected to exceed $200 billion by 2025 and will likely be growing by around 10% per year at least for the foreseeable future), PLUG should be generating $11.7 billion in revenues by 2032. That would assume a 31.9% revenue CAGR between 2022 and 2032, which we also believe is quite reasonable given its aforementioned growth momentum and competitive strengths.<blockquote>如果PLUG能够在未来几年继续利用其强大的技术和巨大的预期规模经济，我们认为到2032年将毛利率提高到30%，净利润率提高到20%是合理的。与此同时，如果到2032年它甚至只能占据全球氢市场3%的份额，并且届时全球市场将达到约3900亿美元（预计到2025年将超过2000亿美元，并且可能至少每年增长10%左右）在可预见的未来），到2032年，PLUG的收入将达到117亿美元。假设2022年至2032年间的收入复合年增长率为31.9%，考虑到其上述增长势头和竞争优势，我们也认为这是相当合理的。</blockquote> At a 20% net margin, that would put its net earnings at over $2.3 billion in 2032, which would require a 42.7x price to earnings multiple to warrant a $100 billion market cap. Is this a reasonable multiple? It depends a lot on interest rates, but, given that the current S&amp;P 500 (SPY) multiple is ~31x and PLUG's growth rate and growth runway will likely still be vastly superior to where the S&amp;P 500's is today, it certainly does not seem too far-fetched to us.<blockquote>如果净利润率为20%，到2032年其净利润将超过23亿美元，这需要42.7倍的市盈率才能保证1000亿美元的市值。这个倍数合理吗？这在很大程度上取决于利率，但是，考虑到目前标普500（SPDR标普500指数ETF）的市盈率约为31倍，而且PLUG的增长率和增长跑道可能仍远优于标普500目前的水平，这当然不会显得太远。对我们来说太牵强了。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02cad870534d53e0544cd0389c837b1d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据来自YCharts</blockquote> #4. Risks<blockquote>#4.风险</blockquote> If this model pans out how we think it could, PLUG is a very attractive buy on the latest pullback.<blockquote>如果这个模型如我们所想的那样成功，那么在最近的回调中，PLUG是一个非常有吸引力的买入。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e86493a3f4fcb61e8bec0de36f0f9b7\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据来自YCharts</blockquote> Of course, it assumes that PLUG will be able to overcome several risks, so investors should keep in mind that it remains a very speculative investment at this point.<blockquote>当然，它假设PLUG将能够克服一些风险，因此投资者应该记住，目前它仍然是一项非常投机性的投资。</blockquote> First and foremost, it will demand that PLUG can maintain highly competitive technology in a space that is almost certain to grow increasingly competitive in the years to come.<blockquote>首先，它将要求PLUG能够在一个几乎肯定会在未来几年竞争日益激烈的领域保持极具竞争力的技术。</blockquote> Additionally, PLUG will need to balance investing in recruiting the best talent in the industry to sustain and increase its technological edge with investing in effective marketing while also avoiding diluting shareholders or running up a big debt burden. Given that it is not yet free cash flow positive, this could prove challenging in the short term. That said, their nearly $4.8 billion in cash and cash equivalents on hand should enable it to reach free cash flow positivity without stressing its balance sheet.<blockquote>此外，PLUG需要在招聘业内最优秀人才以维持和增强其技术优势的投资与有效营销的投资之间取得平衡，同时避免稀释股东权益或增加巨额债务负担。鉴于自由现金流尚未为正，这在短期内可能具有挑战性。也就是说，他们手头近48亿美元的现金和现金等价物应该使其能够在不给资产负债表带来压力的情况下实现正自由现金流。</blockquote> Third, hydrogen power has not been without its critics over the years, most notably Tesla's (TSLA) founder and CEO Elon Musk. The wildly popular and visionary entrepreneur&nbsp;argued&nbsp;that using hydrogen to store energy can never be as efficient as storing electricity in a battery. In fact, he has gone so far as to say that using hydrogen fuel cells (which he calls \"fool cells\") to power vehicles is \"mind-bogglingly stupid.\" Obviously many individuals and corporations disagree with Musk's assessment and he has a clear incentive to try to discredit the technology, but this should still be viewed as a significant risk to keep an eye on. If hydrogen were to fall out of favor, it would significantly reduce the upside for PLUG and could even lead to permanent impairments from current levels if severe enough.<blockquote>第三，多年来，氢能并非没有批评者，最著名的是特斯拉(TSLA)创始人兼首席执行官Elon Musk。这位广受欢迎且富有远见的企业家认为，使用氢来储存能量永远不会像在电池中储存电力那样有效。事实上，他甚至说，使用氢燃料电池（他评级为“傻瓜电池”）为汽车提供动力是“愚蠢得令人难以置信”。显然，许多个人和公司不同意马斯克的评估，他有明显的动机试图诋毁这项技术，但这仍应被视为需要关注的重大风险。如果氢气失宠，将大大降低PLUG的上涨空间，如果足够严重，甚至可能导致当前水平的永久性损害。</blockquote> Investor Takeaway<blockquote>投资者要点</blockquote> PLUG is a competitively positioned company in a rapidly-growing industry. Not only that, but the industry's growth runway looks promising for many decades to come. With advanced technology, early mover advantages, and a foothold on the two most fertile continents for Hydrogen technology, PLUG should be able to generate strong revenue growth for a long time to come.<blockquote>PLUG是一家在快速增长的行业中具有竞争力的公司。不仅如此，该行业的增长跑道在未来几十年看起来充满希望。凭借先进的技术、先发优势以及在氢技术最肥沃的两大洲的立足点，PLUG应该能够在未来很长一段时间内实现强劲的收入增长。</blockquote> Given our assumptions outlined in this article, we think that PLUG could very possibly achieve a $100 billion market cap in about a decade. This would represent a 667% total return (20.9% CAGR) over that span assuming no further share dilution.<blockquote>鉴于我们在本文中概述的假设，我们认为PLUG很可能在大约十年内达到1000亿美元的市值。假设没有进一步的股份稀释，这将意味着该期间的总回报率为667%（复合年增长率为20.9%）。</blockquote> That said, PLUG is also far from a conservative sleep well at night stock and investors should keep in mind that its current valuation assumes significant future growth and an ability to scale into profitability. It also assumes that it will retain a strong technological moat which will enable it to increase gross margins over time.<blockquote>也就是说，PLUG也远非保守的夜间睡眠良好股票，投资者应该记住，其目前的估值假设未来显着增长并有能力扩大盈利。它还假设它将保留强大的技术护城河，这将使其能够随着时间的推移提高毛利率。</blockquote> Overall, we rate PLUG a speculative buy at this point.<blockquote>总体而言，我们目前将PLUG评级为投机性买入。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How Plug Power Could Generate 7x Returns Over The Next Decade<blockquote>普拉格能源如何在未来十年创造7倍的回报</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow Plug Power Could Generate 7x Returns Over The Next Decade<blockquote>普拉格能源如何在未来十年创造7倍的回报</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nseekingalpha2021-07-27 23:26\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>PLUG is a leading hydrogen fuel cell turnkey provider in North American and European markets.</li> <li>The company boasts advanced technology and strong growth momentum.</li> <li>We outline the company's path to growing from a $15 billion market cap to a $100 billion market cap over the next decade.</li> <li>That said, PLUG still faces significant risks to its thesis that investors should keep in mind.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06bea0bef6d6ac8eab14c3fceb2cccae\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">JONGHO SHIN/iStock via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>PLUG是北美和欧洲市场领先的氢燃料电池交钥匙供应商。</li><li>公司拥有先进的技术和强劲的增长势头。</li><li>我们概述了该公司在未来十年从150亿美元市值增长到1000亿美元市值的道路。</li><li>尽管如此，PLUG的论点仍然面临着投资者应该牢记的重大风险。</li></ul>JONGHO SHIN/iStock来自Getty Images</blockquote> Plug Power (PLUG) is a leading hydrogen fuel cell turnkey provider in North American and European markets. The company boasts advanced technology and strong growth momentum which should propel it to significant appreciation over the long term. In this article we outline the company's path to growing from a $15 billion market cap to a $100 billion market cap (nearly 7x returns) over the next decade.<blockquote>普拉格能源(PLUG)是北美和欧洲市场领先的氢燃料电池交钥匙供应商。该公司拥有先进的技术和强劲的增长势头，这将推动其长期大幅升值。在本文中，我们概述了该公司在未来十年从150亿美元市值增长到1000亿美元市值（近7倍回报率）的道路。</blockquote> #1. Addressable Market Potential<blockquote>#1.潜在市场潜力</blockquote> With the&nbsp;massive tailwinds&nbsp;for green energy and ESG investing at the moment, the hydrogen fuel cell market is likely to enjoy strong growth momentum for many years to come.<blockquote>随着目前绿色能源和ESG投资的巨大推动力，氢燃料电池市场可能在未来许多年享有强劲的增长势头。</blockquote> First and foremost, the Biden administration has executed an aggressive about-face from the previous administration in its disposition towards clean energy and fossil fuels. Between executive orders and rejoining the Paris Climate Accords, the U.S. Government is increasingly incentivizing green energy investment and consumption. The European Union and China are also increasingly headed in this direction.<blockquote>首先，拜登政府在对清洁能源和化石燃料的态度上与上届政府进行了激进的大转变。在行政命令和重新加入巴黎气候协定之间，美国。政府越来越多地激励绿色能源投资和消费。欧盟和中国也越来越多地朝着这个方向前进。</blockquote> Second, the ESG investing movement has taken off to where it now accounts for an astonishing&nbsp;one-third of total assets under management&nbsp;in the United States. Given that so much capital is attracted to environmentally friendly investments, companies across the board - including in the hydrocarbon sector - are increasingly adopting policies that appeal to the environmentally-conscious investor.<blockquote>其次，ESG投资运动已经起飞，目前占美国管理总资产的三分之一，令人震惊。鉴于如此多的资本被吸引到环保投资中，包括碳氢化合物行业在内的所有公司都越来越多地采取吸引具有环保意识的投资者的政策。</blockquote> Third, the disruption and transformation of the automotive industry to reduce emissions is driving strong demand for new fuel technologies.<blockquote>第三，汽车行业为减少排放而进行的颠覆和转型正在推动对新燃料技术的强劲需求。</blockquote> Finally - largely due to the heavy investment and market demand - green technologies such as hydrogen fuel cells are&nbsp;seeing costs decline dramatically, making them increasingly competitive on the marketplace.<blockquote>最后，主要由于大量投资和市场需求，氢燃料电池等绿色技术的成本大幅下降，使其在市场上的竞争力越来越强。</blockquote> All of this should lead to continued strong growth in the sector. In fact, U.S. Hydrogen demand is&nbsp;expected&nbsp;to be 17 million metric tons per year by 2030 and 63 million metric tons by 2050, which is pretty substantial growth from the 10 million metric tons consumed in the U.S. last year. Globally, the hydrogen generation industry is&nbsp;expected&nbsp;to reach $201 billion by 2025 and should continue to grow rapidly in the decades to follow similar to how it is expected to grow in the U.S.<blockquote>所有这些都应该会导致该行业持续强劲增长。事实上，到2030年，美国的氢气需求预计将达到每年1700万吨，到2050年将达到6300万吨，这比美国去年的1000万吨消费量有了相当大的增长。在全球范围内，制氢行业预计到2025年将达到2010亿美元，并在接下来的几十年里继续快速增长，类似于美国的预期增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0541b1fd23777a900f3e1a1102206d7b\" tg-width=\"824\" tg-height=\"514\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> #2. Market Share Drivers<blockquote>#2.市场份额驱动因素</blockquote> We believe that PLUG has a strong chance at capturing a sizable portion of this massive addressable market for the following reasons.<blockquote>我们相信，由于以下原因，PLUG很有可能占领这个庞大的潜在市场的相当大一部分。</blockquote> First and foremost, it has advanced technology and early mover advantages in the space. It owns numerous hydrogen energy systems including proton exchange membrane fuel cells, hybrid batteries, hydrogen storage, hydrogen dispensing, and fuel processing. Its flagship product is the electric vehicle focused GenDrive system that is complemented by their GenFuel and GenCare systems.<blockquote>首先，它在该领域拥有先进的技术和先发优势。拥有质子交换膜燃料电池、混合动力电池、储氢、配氢、燃料加工等众多氢能系统。其旗舰产品是专注于电动汽车的GenDrive系统，并辅以GenFuel和GenCare系统。</blockquote> Second of all, it has a foothold in both North America and Europe which means that it has significantly more growth potential than if it was solely focused on a single continent. In fact, North America and Europe are likely to be the leaders in Hydrogen adaptation for the foreseeable future, so PLUG is well-positioned to capture a significant portion of the global market share.<blockquote>其次，它在北美和欧洲都有立足点，这意味着它比只专注于一个大陆具有更大的增长潜力。事实上，在可预见的未来，北美和欧洲很可能成为氢适应的领导者，因此PLUG处于有利地位，可以占领全球市场份额的很大一部分。</blockquote> Third, PLUG has strong growth momentum right now and is winning business from some of the biggest companies in the world, including Amazon (AMZN), Walmart (WMT), Home Depot (HD), and General Motors (GM) either currently using their products or expected to become customers in the near future. As a result, we expect the 76% year-over-year revenue growth in its most recent&nbsp;quarterly report&nbsp;(128% year-over-year growth in their fuel cell systems and related infrastructure segment) to be sustainable for the foreseeable future.<blockquote>第三，PLUG目前增长势头强劲，正在赢得世界上一些最大公司的业务，包括亚马逊(AMZN)、沃尔玛(WMT)、家得宝(HD)和通用汽车(GM)，这些公司目前正在使用他们的产品或预计在不久的将来成为客户。因此，我们预计其最新季度报告中76%的收入同比增长（燃料电池系统和相关基础设施部门同比增长128%）在可预见的未来将是可持续的。</blockquote> In fact,analysts expect&nbsp;revenue to grow by 57% in 2022, which should push the company to EBITDA profitability.<blockquote>事实上，分析师预计2022年收入将增长57%，这应该会推动该公司实现EBITDA盈利。</blockquote> #3. Valuation<blockquote>#3.估值</blockquote> While PLUG certainly operates in a hot industry and has numerous drivers that should enable it to capture significant market share, the company is also not cheap as it is currently running a loss.<blockquote>虽然PLUG确实在一个热门行业运营，并且拥有众多驱动因素，应该使其能够占领重要的市场份额，但该公司的价格也不便宜，因为它目前正在亏损。</blockquote> On the other hand, its EV/revenue figure is not outlandish given their growth runway as PLUG currently trades at 29.8x expected 2021 sales and 21x expected 2022 sales.<blockquote>另一方面，考虑到其增长跑道，其EV/收入数据并不奇怪，因为PLUG目前的交易价格是2021年预期销售额的29.8倍，2022年预期销售额的21倍。</blockquote> In fact, with a product gross margin of 38% that expanded by a whopping 600 basis points in PLUG's most recent earnings release, its profitability potential is significant. Overall, PLUG's gross margin is expected to be a fairly weak 9.71% in 2021, but is expected to nearly double in 2022 to 18.93%. This is also a massive increase from 2017 when the gross margin was a mere 1.2%. The EBITDA margin is also expected to be a somewhat respectable 10.7% in 2022 as well.<blockquote>事实上，PLUG最近发布的财报中，产品毛利率为38%，增长了600个基点，其盈利潜力巨大。总体而言，预计2021年PLUG的毛利率为相当疲软的9.71%，但预计2022年将增长近一倍，达到18.93%。这也比2017年的毛利率仅为1.2%大幅增长。预计2022年的EBITDA利润率也将达到相当可观的10.7%。</blockquote> If PLUG can continue to leverage its strong technology and massive expected economies of scale in the coming years, we think it is reasonable for it to push gross margins to 30% and net margins to 20% by 2032. Meanwhile, if it can capture even just 3% of global hydrogen market share by 2032 and the global market reaches roughly $390 billion by then (it is expected to exceed $200 billion by 2025 and will likely be growing by around 10% per year at least for the foreseeable future), PLUG should be generating $11.7 billion in revenues by 2032. That would assume a 31.9% revenue CAGR between 2022 and 2032, which we also believe is quite reasonable given its aforementioned growth momentum and competitive strengths.<blockquote>如果PLUG能够在未来几年继续利用其强大的技术和巨大的预期规模经济，我们认为到2032年将毛利率提高到30%，净利润率提高到20%是合理的。与此同时，如果到2032年它甚至只能占据全球氢市场3%的份额，并且届时全球市场将达到约3900亿美元（预计到2025年将超过2000亿美元，并且可能至少每年增长10%左右）在可预见的未来），到2032年，PLUG的收入将达到117亿美元。假设2022年至2032年间的收入复合年增长率为31.9%，考虑到其上述增长势头和竞争优势，我们也认为这是相当合理的。</blockquote> At a 20% net margin, that would put its net earnings at over $2.3 billion in 2032, which would require a 42.7x price to earnings multiple to warrant a $100 billion market cap. Is this a reasonable multiple? It depends a lot on interest rates, but, given that the current S&amp;P 500 (SPY) multiple is ~31x and PLUG's growth rate and growth runway will likely still be vastly superior to where the S&amp;P 500's is today, it certainly does not seem too far-fetched to us.<blockquote>如果净利润率为20%，到2032年其净利润将超过23亿美元，这需要42.7倍的市盈率才能保证1000亿美元的市值。这个倍数合理吗？这在很大程度上取决于利率，但是，考虑到目前标普500（SPDR标普500指数ETF）的市盈率约为31倍，而且PLUG的增长率和增长跑道可能仍远优于标普500目前的水平，这当然不会显得太远。对我们来说太牵强了。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02cad870534d53e0544cd0389c837b1d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据来自YCharts</blockquote> #4. Risks<blockquote>#4.风险</blockquote> If this model pans out how we think it could, PLUG is a very attractive buy on the latest pullback.<blockquote>如果这个模型如我们所想的那样成功，那么在最近的回调中，PLUG是一个非常有吸引力的买入。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e86493a3f4fcb61e8bec0de36f0f9b7\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据来自YCharts</blockquote> Of course, it assumes that PLUG will be able to overcome several risks, so investors should keep in mind that it remains a very speculative investment at this point.<blockquote>当然，它假设PLUG将能够克服一些风险，因此投资者应该记住，目前它仍然是一项非常投机性的投资。</blockquote> First and foremost, it will demand that PLUG can maintain highly competitive technology in a space that is almost certain to grow increasingly competitive in the years to come.<blockquote>首先，它将要求PLUG能够在一个几乎肯定会在未来几年竞争日益激烈的领域保持极具竞争力的技术。</blockquote> Additionally, PLUG will need to balance investing in recruiting the best talent in the industry to sustain and increase its technological edge with investing in effective marketing while also avoiding diluting shareholders or running up a big debt burden. Given that it is not yet free cash flow positive, this could prove challenging in the short term. That said, their nearly $4.8 billion in cash and cash equivalents on hand should enable it to reach free cash flow positivity without stressing its balance sheet.<blockquote>此外，PLUG需要在招聘业内最优秀人才以维持和增强其技术优势的投资与有效营销的投资之间取得平衡，同时避免稀释股东权益或增加巨额债务负担。鉴于自由现金流尚未为正，这在短期内可能具有挑战性。也就是说，他们手头近48亿美元的现金和现金等价物应该使其能够在不给资产负债表带来压力的情况下实现正自由现金流。</blockquote> Third, hydrogen power has not been without its critics over the years, most notably Tesla's (TSLA) founder and CEO Elon Musk. The wildly popular and visionary entrepreneur&nbsp;argued&nbsp;that using hydrogen to store energy can never be as efficient as storing electricity in a battery. In fact, he has gone so far as to say that using hydrogen fuel cells (which he calls \"fool cells\") to power vehicles is \"mind-bogglingly stupid.\" Obviously many individuals and corporations disagree with Musk's assessment and he has a clear incentive to try to discredit the technology, but this should still be viewed as a significant risk to keep an eye on. If hydrogen were to fall out of favor, it would significantly reduce the upside for PLUG and could even lead to permanent impairments from current levels if severe enough.<blockquote>第三，多年来，氢能并非没有批评者，最著名的是特斯拉(TSLA)创始人兼首席执行官Elon Musk。这位广受欢迎且富有远见的企业家认为，使用氢来储存能量永远不会像在电池中储存电力那样有效。事实上，他甚至说，使用氢燃料电池（他评级为“傻瓜电池”）为汽车提供动力是“愚蠢得令人难以置信”。显然，许多个人和公司不同意马斯克的评估，他有明显的动机试图诋毁这项技术，但这仍应被视为需要关注的重大风险。如果氢气失宠，将大大降低PLUG的上涨空间，如果足够严重，甚至可能导致当前水平的永久性损害。</blockquote> Investor Takeaway<blockquote>投资者要点</blockquote> PLUG is a competitively positioned company in a rapidly-growing industry. Not only that, but the industry's growth runway looks promising for many decades to come. With advanced technology, early mover advantages, and a foothold on the two most fertile continents for Hydrogen technology, PLUG should be able to generate strong revenue growth for a long time to come.<blockquote>PLUG是一家在快速增长的行业中具有竞争力的公司。不仅如此，该行业的增长跑道在未来几十年看起来充满希望。凭借先进的技术、先发优势以及在氢技术最肥沃的两大洲的立足点，PLUG应该能够在未来很长一段时间内实现强劲的收入增长。</blockquote> Given our assumptions outlined in this article, we think that PLUG could very possibly achieve a $100 billion market cap in about a decade. This would represent a 667% total return (20.9% CAGR) over that span assuming no further share dilution.<blockquote>鉴于我们在本文中概述的假设，我们认为PLUG很可能在大约十年内达到1000亿美元的市值。假设没有进一步的股份稀释，这将意味着该期间的总回报率为667%（复合年增长率为20.9%）。</blockquote> That said, PLUG is also far from a conservative sleep well at night stock and investors should keep in mind that its current valuation assumes significant future growth and an ability to scale into profitability. It also assumes that it will retain a strong technological moat which will enable it to increase gross margins over time.<blockquote>也就是说，PLUG也远非保守的夜间睡眠良好股票，投资者应该记住，其目前的估值假设未来显着增长并有能力扩大盈利。它还假设它将保留强大的技术护城河，这将使其能够随着时间的推移提高毛利率。</blockquote> Overall, we rate PLUG a speculative buy at this point.<blockquote>总体而言，我们目前将PLUG评级为投机性买入。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441600-plug-power-could-generate-7x-returns-over-the-next-decade\">seekingalpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLUG":"普拉格能源"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441600-plug-power-could-generate-7x-returns-over-the-next-decade","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1165178450","content_text":"Summary\n\nPLUG is a leading hydrogen fuel cell turnkey provider in North American and European markets.\nThe company boasts advanced technology and strong growth momentum.\nWe outline the company's path to growing from a $15 billion market cap to a $100 billion market cap over the next decade.\nThat said, PLUG still faces significant risks to its thesis that investors should keep in mind.\n\nJONGHO SHIN/iStock via Getty Images\nPlug Power (PLUG) is a leading hydrogen fuel cell turnkey provider in North American and European markets. The company boasts advanced technology and strong growth momentum which should propel it to significant appreciation over the long term. In this article we outline the company's path to growing from a $15 billion market cap to a $100 billion market cap (nearly 7x returns) over the next decade.\n#1. Addressable Market Potential\nWith the massive tailwinds for green energy and ESG investing at the moment, the hydrogen fuel cell market is likely to enjoy strong growth momentum for many years to come.\nFirst and foremost, the Biden administration has executed an aggressive about-face from the previous administration in its disposition towards clean energy and fossil fuels. Between executive orders and rejoining the Paris Climate Accords, the U.S. Government is increasingly incentivizing green energy investment and consumption. The European Union and China are also increasingly headed in this direction.\nSecond, the ESG investing movement has taken off to where it now accounts for an astonishing one-third of total assets under management in the United States. Given that so much capital is attracted to environmentally friendly investments, companies across the board - including in the hydrocarbon sector - are increasingly adopting policies that appeal to the environmentally-conscious investor.\nThird, the disruption and transformation of the automotive industry to reduce emissions is driving strong demand for new fuel technologies.\nFinally - largely due to the heavy investment and market demand - green technologies such as hydrogen fuel cells are seeing costs decline dramatically, making them increasingly competitive on the marketplace.\nAll of this should lead to continued strong growth in the sector. In fact, U.S. Hydrogen demand is expected to be 17 million metric tons per year by 2030 and 63 million metric tons by 2050, which is pretty substantial growth from the 10 million metric tons consumed in the U.S. last year. Globally, the hydrogen generation industry is expected to reach $201 billion by 2025 and should continue to grow rapidly in the decades to follow similar to how it is expected to grow in the U.S.\n\n#2. Market Share Drivers\nWe believe that PLUG has a strong chance at capturing a sizable portion of this massive addressable market for the following reasons.\nFirst and foremost, it has advanced technology and early mover advantages in the space. It owns numerous hydrogen energy systems including proton exchange membrane fuel cells, hybrid batteries, hydrogen storage, hydrogen dispensing, and fuel processing. Its flagship product is the electric vehicle focused GenDrive system that is complemented by their GenFuel and GenCare systems.\nSecond of all, it has a foothold in both North America and Europe which means that it has significantly more growth potential than if it was solely focused on a single continent. In fact, North America and Europe are likely to be the leaders in Hydrogen adaptation for the foreseeable future, so PLUG is well-positioned to capture a significant portion of the global market share.\nThird, PLUG has strong growth momentum right now and is winning business from some of the biggest companies in the world, including Amazon (AMZN), Walmart (WMT), Home Depot (HD), and General Motors (GM) either currently using their products or expected to become customers in the near future. As a result, we expect the 76% year-over-year revenue growth in its most recent quarterly report (128% year-over-year growth in their fuel cell systems and related infrastructure segment) to be sustainable for the foreseeable future.\nIn fact,analysts expect revenue to grow by 57% in 2022, which should push the company to EBITDA profitability.\n#3. Valuation\nWhile PLUG certainly operates in a hot industry and has numerous drivers that should enable it to capture significant market share, the company is also not cheap as it is currently running a loss.\nOn the other hand, its EV/revenue figure is not outlandish given their growth runway as PLUG currently trades at 29.8x expected 2021 sales and 21x expected 2022 sales.\nIn fact, with a product gross margin of 38% that expanded by a whopping 600 basis points in PLUG's most recent earnings release, its profitability potential is significant. Overall, PLUG's gross margin is expected to be a fairly weak 9.71% in 2021, but is expected to nearly double in 2022 to 18.93%. This is also a massive increase from 2017 when the gross margin was a mere 1.2%. The EBITDA margin is also expected to be a somewhat respectable 10.7% in 2022 as well.\nIf PLUG can continue to leverage its strong technology and massive expected economies of scale in the coming years, we think it is reasonable for it to push gross margins to 30% and net margins to 20% by 2032. Meanwhile, if it can capture even just 3% of global hydrogen market share by 2032 and the global market reaches roughly $390 billion by then (it is expected to exceed $200 billion by 2025 and will likely be growing by around 10% per year at least for the foreseeable future), PLUG should be generating $11.7 billion in revenues by 2032. That would assume a 31.9% revenue CAGR between 2022 and 2032, which we also believe is quite reasonable given its aforementioned growth momentum and competitive strengths.\nAt a 20% net margin, that would put its net earnings at over $2.3 billion in 2032, which would require a 42.7x price to earnings multiple to warrant a $100 billion market cap. Is this a reasonable multiple? It depends a lot on interest rates, but, given that the current S&P 500 (SPY) multiple is ~31x and PLUG's growth rate and growth runway will likely still be vastly superior to where the S&P 500's is today, it certainly does not seem too far-fetched to us.\nData by YCharts\n#4. Risks\nIf this model pans out how we think it could, PLUG is a very attractive buy on the latest pullback.\nData by YCharts\nOf course, it assumes that PLUG will be able to overcome several risks, so investors should keep in mind that it remains a very speculative investment at this point.\nFirst and foremost, it will demand that PLUG can maintain highly competitive technology in a space that is almost certain to grow increasingly competitive in the years to come.\nAdditionally, PLUG will need to balance investing in recruiting the best talent in the industry to sustain and increase its technological edge with investing in effective marketing while also avoiding diluting shareholders or running up a big debt burden. Given that it is not yet free cash flow positive, this could prove challenging in the short term. That said, their nearly $4.8 billion in cash and cash equivalents on hand should enable it to reach free cash flow positivity without stressing its balance sheet.\nThird, hydrogen power has not been without its critics over the years, most notably Tesla's (TSLA) founder and CEO Elon Musk. The wildly popular and visionary entrepreneur argued that using hydrogen to store energy can never be as efficient as storing electricity in a battery. In fact, he has gone so far as to say that using hydrogen fuel cells (which he calls \"fool cells\") to power vehicles is \"mind-bogglingly stupid.\" Obviously many individuals and corporations disagree with Musk's assessment and he has a clear incentive to try to discredit the technology, but this should still be viewed as a significant risk to keep an eye on. If hydrogen were to fall out of favor, it would significantly reduce the upside for PLUG and could even lead to permanent impairments from current levels if severe enough.\nInvestor Takeaway\nPLUG is a competitively positioned company in a rapidly-growing industry. Not only that, but the industry's growth runway looks promising for many decades to come. With advanced technology, early mover advantages, and a foothold on the two most fertile continents for Hydrogen technology, PLUG should be able to generate strong revenue growth for a long time to come.\nGiven our assumptions outlined in this article, we think that PLUG could very possibly achieve a $100 billion market cap in about a decade. This would represent a 667% total return (20.9% CAGR) over that span assuming no further share dilution.\nThat said, PLUG is also far from a conservative sleep well at night stock and investors should keep in mind that its current valuation assumes significant future growth and an ability to scale into profitability. It also assumes that it will retain a strong technological moat which will enable it to increase gross margins over time.\nOverall, we rate PLUG a speculative buy at this point.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLUG":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":483,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":22,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}

How Plug Power Could Generate 7x Returns Over The Next Decade<blockquote>普拉格能源如何在未来十年创造7倍的回报</blockquote>

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