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2021-07-26

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3 Reasons I'm Not Worried About Netflix's Domestic Subscriber Loss<blockquote>我不担心Netflix国内订户流失的3个原因</blockquote>

The underlying details of the company's net addition numbers are important.

3 Reasons I'm Not Worried About Netflix's Domestic Subscriber Loss<blockquote>我不担心Netflix国内订户流失的3个原因</blockquote>

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But the size of the loss -- a 430,000 drop in active subscribers -- still jumped off the page when Netflix released its earnings results.<blockquote>这不应该是一个大惊喜Netflix（纳斯达克：NFLX）第二季度在成熟的美国和加拿大（UCAN）地区失去了用户。但当Netflix发布财报时，损失的规模——活跃用户减少了43万——仍然引人注目。</blockquote> While the UCAN region has shown signs of saturation for several years now, there's no reason for investors to think last quarter's results are an indication of what's ahead for the video-streaming leader. Here are three reasons why the subscriber loss doesn't worry me.<blockquote>虽然UCAN地区几年来一直显示出饱和的迹象，但投资者没有理由认为上个季度的业绩预示着这家视频流媒体领导者的未来。以下是我不担心用户流失的三个原因。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac05e16288edfa9bed42606de660810c\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1125\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">IMAGE SOURCE: NETFLIX.<blockquote>图片来源：NETFLIX。</blockquote> 1. Improving subscriber engagement and retention<blockquote>1.提高用户参与度和保留率</blockquote> Netflix's subscriber losses didn't come from a spike in cancellations as businesses reopened and the weather warmed up in the U.S. and Canada. In fact, management noted subscriber engagement and retention improved in the second quarter compared to the same period two years ago. The average Netflix subscriber around the world spent 17% more time streaming in this latest period than in the second quarter of 2019.<blockquote>随着企业重新开业以及美国和加拿大天气变暖，Netflix的订户流失并不是因为取消订阅的激增。事实上，管理层指出，与两年前同期相比，第二季度的用户参与度和保留率有所提高。与2019年第二季度相比，全球网飞用户在流媒体上花费的平均时间增加了17%。</blockquote> That statistic is particularly impressive in light of two factors investors would expect to result in an increase in churn and a decrease in engagement. First, Netflix raised its prices yet again in the U.S. and Canada (and other markets) in late 2020 and early 2021. Management previously noted some sensitivity to its last price increase in 2019, which showed up in its second-quarter results that year.<blockquote>考虑到投资者预计会导致流失率增加和参与度下降的两个因素，这一统计数据尤其令人印象深刻。首先，网飞在2020年底和2021年初再次提高了在美国和加拿大（以及其他市场）的价格。管理层此前指出，2019年最后一次提价存在一定敏感性，这体现在当年第二季度业绩中。</blockquote> The second factor is the relatively light content slate of early 2021. COVID-19-related production delays forced much of Netflix's original content lineup to the second half of the year, more so than previous years. Management pointed out that content amortization over the first six months of the year increased just 9% year over year versus 17% in 2020 and 22% in 2019. Nonetheless, it seems Netflix's content spending is becoming more efficient as it scales.<blockquote>第二个因素是2021年初相对较轻的内容。与COVID-19相关的制作延迟迫使Netflix的大部分原创内容阵容推迟到今年下半年，比前几年更是如此。管理层指出，今年前六个月的内容摊销同比仅增长9%，而2020年为17%，2019年为22%。尽管如此，随着规模的扩大，Netflix的内容支出似乎变得更加高效。</blockquote> Considering&nbsp;churn is one of the most important factors&nbsp;for the video-streaming industry, seeing Netflix continue to add total paid subscribers in this environment is a great sign for long-term growth.<blockquote>考虑到流失是视频流媒体行业最重要的因素之一，看到Netflix在这种环境下继续增加付费用户总数是长期增长的一个很好的迹象。</blockquote> 2. Limited impact from competition<blockquote>2.竞争影响有限</blockquote> Netflix has a lot more competition than it did just a couple years ago.Walt Disney's Disney+ and&nbsp;AT&amp;T's HBO Max have attracted a lot of attention, and other media companies have launched or expanded their&nbsp;streaming businesses.<blockquote>Netflix的竞争比几年前要激烈得多。迪斯尼迪士尼+和AT&amp;THBO Max吸引了大量关注，其他媒体公司也推出或扩大了流媒体业务。</blockquote> But management says their entries into the market haven't had a big impact on Netflix's business. \"Does HBO or Disney or other entries have a differential impact compared to the past?\" co-CEO Reed Hastings asked rhetorically during Netflix's second-quarter earnings call. \"[W]e're not seeing that in the detail that we have per country,\" he said before adding, \"We're not seeing it in the total viewing.\"<blockquote>但管理层表示，他们进入市场并未对Netflix的业务产生重大影响。“与过去相比，HBO或迪士尼或其他条目是否有不同的影响？”联席CEO Reed Hastings在Netflix第二季度财报看涨期权上反问。“我们没有在每个国家的细节中看到这一点，”他说，然后补充道，“我们没有在总观看量中看到这一点。”</blockquote> In other words, when you look at Netflix's results in countries where the competitors are and where they aren't, management doesn't see a significant impact from the competition on its respective growth trajectories.<blockquote>换句话说，当你查看Netflix在竞争对手所在国家和不所在国家的业绩时，管理层并没有看到竞争对其各自的增长轨迹产生重大影响。</blockquote> Netflix's third-quarter outlook calls for 3.5 million global net additions. That's still a relatively low number of net additions for Netflix, but looking past the third quarter, there are a couple reasons to be optimistic.<blockquote>Netflix第三季度全球净增评级为350万。对于Netflix来说，这仍然是一个相对较低的净增数量，但展望第三季度，有几个理由保持乐观。</blockquote> First of all, management expects net additions to normalize in the fourth quarter as the content slate catches back up, and it moves into a seasonally strong period. Netflix managed a strong fourth quarter in 2020 that was practically normal compared to 2019 and 2018. That didn't prevent the COVID-19 hangover from showing up in the first half of 2020, though. Nonetheless, a more normal fourth quarter is a sign that content is the key to driving subscriber growth and should provide confidence for 2022 and beyond.<blockquote>首先，管理层预计，随着内容清单的恢复，净新增内容将在第四季度正常化，并进入季节性强劲时期。Netflix在2020年第四季度表现强劲，与2019年和2018年相比几乎正常。不过，这并没有阻止新冠肺炎的后遗症在2020年上半年出现。尽管如此，更加正常的第四季度表明内容是推动用户增长的关键，应该会为2022年及以后提供信心。</blockquote> Second, the secular growth of streaming is still in its early stages. Management pointed to&nbsp;Nielsen&nbsp;data that showedstreaming accounted for just 26% of screen timein the U.S., and the vast majority of time spent watching television still goes to linear networks. Nielsen expects streaming to increase its share of screen time to 33% by the end of the year and to keep growing in 2022 and beyond. Netflix should be a beneficiary of this secular trend as more people cut the cord and shift to streaming as their primary source of video entertainment.<blockquote>其次，流媒体的长期增长仍处于早期阶段。管理层指出尼尔森数据显示，在美国，流媒体仅占屏幕时间的26%，而且绝大多数看电视的时间仍然花在线性网络上。尼尔森预计，到今年年底，流媒体在屏幕时间中的份额将增加到33%，并在2022年及以后继续增长。随着越来越多的人切断脐带并转向流媒体作为视频娱乐的主要来源，Netflix应该是这一长期趋势的受益者。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Reasons I'm Not Worried About Netflix's Domestic Subscriber Loss<blockquote>我不担心Netflix国内订户流失的3个原因</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Reasons I'm Not Worried About Netflix's Domestic Subscriber Loss<blockquote>我不担心Netflix国内订户流失的3个原因</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMotley Fool2021-07-26 20:58\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nKey Points<blockquote>要点</blockquote> <ul> <li>Netflix lost 430,000 subscribers in the U.S. and Canada during the second quarter.</li> <li>Digging into the factors impacting subscriber growth shows more bullish trends.</li> <li>The long-term picture also favors Netflix.</li> </ul> <blockquote><ul><li>Netflix第二季度在美国和加拿大失去了43万订户。</li><li>深入研究影响用户增长的因素显示出更多看涨趋势。</li><li>长期前景也有利于Netflix。</li></ul></blockquote> It shouldn't be a big surprise that&nbsp;Netflix(NASDAQ:NFLX)lost subscribers in its mature U.S. and Canada (UCAN) region during the second quarter. But the size of the loss -- a 430,000 drop in active subscribers -- still jumped off the page when Netflix released its earnings results.<blockquote>这不应该是一个大惊喜Netflix（纳斯达克：NFLX）第二季度在成熟的美国和加拿大（UCAN）地区失去了用户。但当Netflix发布财报时，损失的规模——活跃用户减少了43万——仍然引人注目。</blockquote> While the UCAN region has shown signs of saturation for several years now, there's no reason for investors to think last quarter's results are an indication of what's ahead for the video-streaming leader. Here are three reasons why the subscriber loss doesn't worry me.<blockquote>虽然UCAN地区几年来一直显示出饱和的迹象，但投资者没有理由认为上个季度的业绩预示着这家视频流媒体领导者的未来。以下是我不担心用户流失的三个原因。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac05e16288edfa9bed42606de660810c\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1125\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">IMAGE SOURCE: NETFLIX.<blockquote>图片来源：NETFLIX。</blockquote> 1. Improving subscriber engagement and retention<blockquote>1.提高用户参与度和保留率</blockquote> Netflix's subscriber losses didn't come from a spike in cancellations as businesses reopened and the weather warmed up in the U.S. and Canada. In fact, management noted subscriber engagement and retention improved in the second quarter compared to the same period two years ago. The average Netflix subscriber around the world spent 17% more time streaming in this latest period than in the second quarter of 2019.<blockquote>随着企业重新开业以及美国和加拿大天气变暖，Netflix的订户流失并不是因为取消订阅的激增。事实上，管理层指出，与两年前同期相比，第二季度的用户参与度和保留率有所提高。与2019年第二季度相比，全球网飞用户在流媒体上花费的平均时间增加了17%。</blockquote> That statistic is particularly impressive in light of two factors investors would expect to result in an increase in churn and a decrease in engagement. First, Netflix raised its prices yet again in the U.S. and Canada (and other markets) in late 2020 and early 2021. Management previously noted some sensitivity to its last price increase in 2019, which showed up in its second-quarter results that year.<blockquote>考虑到投资者预计会导致流失率增加和参与度下降的两个因素，这一统计数据尤其令人印象深刻。首先，网飞在2020年底和2021年初再次提高了在美国和加拿大（以及其他市场）的价格。管理层此前指出，2019年最后一次提价存在一定敏感性，这体现在当年第二季度业绩中。</blockquote> The second factor is the relatively light content slate of early 2021. COVID-19-related production delays forced much of Netflix's original content lineup to the second half of the year, more so than previous years. Management pointed out that content amortization over the first six months of the year increased just 9% year over year versus 17% in 2020 and 22% in 2019. Nonetheless, it seems Netflix's content spending is becoming more efficient as it scales.<blockquote>第二个因素是2021年初相对较轻的内容。与COVID-19相关的制作延迟迫使Netflix的大部分原创内容阵容推迟到今年下半年，比前几年更是如此。管理层指出，今年前六个月的内容摊销同比仅增长9%，而2020年为17%，2019年为22%。尽管如此，随着规模的扩大，Netflix的内容支出似乎变得更加高效。</blockquote> Considering&nbsp;churn is one of the most important factors&nbsp;for the video-streaming industry, seeing Netflix continue to add total paid subscribers in this environment is a great sign for long-term growth.<blockquote>考虑到流失是视频流媒体行业最重要的因素之一，看到Netflix在这种环境下继续增加付费用户总数是长期增长的一个很好的迹象。</blockquote> 2. Limited impact from competition<blockquote>2.竞争影响有限</blockquote> Netflix has a lot more competition than it did just a couple years ago.Walt Disney's Disney+ and&nbsp;AT&amp;T's HBO Max have attracted a lot of attention, and other media companies have launched or expanded their&nbsp;streaming businesses.<blockquote>Netflix的竞争比几年前要激烈得多。迪斯尼迪士尼+和AT&amp;THBO Max吸引了大量关注，其他媒体公司也推出或扩大了流媒体业务。</blockquote> But management says their entries into the market haven't had a big impact on Netflix's business. \"Does HBO or Disney or other entries have a differential impact compared to the past?\" co-CEO Reed Hastings asked rhetorically during Netflix's second-quarter earnings call. \"[W]e're not seeing that in the detail that we have per country,\" he said before adding, \"We're not seeing it in the total viewing.\"<blockquote>但管理层表示，他们进入市场并未对Netflix的业务产生重大影响。“与过去相比，HBO或迪士尼或其他条目是否有不同的影响？”联席CEO Reed Hastings在Netflix第二季度财报看涨期权上反问。“我们没有在每个国家的细节中看到这一点，”他说，然后补充道，“我们没有在总观看量中看到这一点。”</blockquote> In other words, when you look at Netflix's results in countries where the competitors are and where they aren't, management doesn't see a significant impact from the competition on its respective growth trajectories.<blockquote>换句话说，当你查看Netflix在竞争对手所在国家和不所在国家的业绩时，管理层并没有看到竞争对其各自的增长轨迹产生重大影响。</blockquote> Netflix's third-quarter outlook calls for 3.5 million global net additions. That's still a relatively low number of net additions for Netflix, but looking past the third quarter, there are a couple reasons to be optimistic.<blockquote>Netflix第三季度全球净增评级为350万。对于Netflix来说，这仍然是一个相对较低的净增数量，但展望第三季度，有几个理由保持乐观。</blockquote> First of all, management expects net additions to normalize in the fourth quarter as the content slate catches back up, and it moves into a seasonally strong period. Netflix managed a strong fourth quarter in 2020 that was practically normal compared to 2019 and 2018. That didn't prevent the COVID-19 hangover from showing up in the first half of 2020, though. Nonetheless, a more normal fourth quarter is a sign that content is the key to driving subscriber growth and should provide confidence for 2022 and beyond.<blockquote>首先，管理层预计，随着内容清单的恢复，净新增内容将在第四季度正常化，并进入季节性强劲时期。Netflix在2020年第四季度表现强劲，与2019年和2018年相比几乎正常。不过，这并没有阻止新冠肺炎的后遗症在2020年上半年出现。尽管如此，更加正常的第四季度表明内容是推动用户增长的关键，应该会为2022年及以后提供信心。</blockquote> Second, the secular growth of streaming is still in its early stages. Management pointed to&nbsp;Nielsen&nbsp;data that showedstreaming accounted for just 26% of screen timein the U.S., and the vast majority of time spent watching television still goes to linear networks. Nielsen expects streaming to increase its share of screen time to 33% by the end of the year and to keep growing in 2022 and beyond. Netflix should be a beneficiary of this secular trend as more people cut the cord and shift to streaming as their primary source of video entertainment.<blockquote>其次，流媒体的长期增长仍处于早期阶段。管理层指出尼尔森数据显示，在美国，流媒体仅占屏幕时间的26%，而且绝大多数看电视的时间仍然花在线性网络上。尼尔森预计，到今年年底，流媒体在屏幕时间中的份额将增加到33%，并在2022年及以后继续增长。随着越来越多的人切断脐带并转向流媒体作为视频娱乐的主要来源，Netflix应该是这一长期趋势的受益者。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/25/3-reasons-im-not-worried-netflixs-subscriber-loss/\">Motley Fool</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NFLX":"奈飞"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/25/3-reasons-im-not-worried-netflixs-subscriber-loss/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1180556152","content_text":"Key Points\n\nNetflix lost 430,000 subscribers in the U.S. and Canada during the second quarter.\nDigging into the factors impacting subscriber growth shows more bullish trends.\nThe long-term picture also favors Netflix.\n\n\nIt shouldn't be a big surprise that Netflix(NASDAQ:NFLX)lost subscribers in its mature U.S. and Canada (UCAN) region during the second quarter. But the size of the loss -- a 430,000 drop in active subscribers -- still jumped off the page when Netflix released its earnings results.\nWhile the UCAN region has shown signs of saturation for several years now, there's no reason for investors to think last quarter's results are an indication of what's ahead for the video-streaming leader. Here are three reasons why the subscriber loss doesn't worry me.\nIMAGE SOURCE: NETFLIX.\n1. Improving subscriber engagement and retention\nNetflix's subscriber losses didn't come from a spike in cancellations as businesses reopened and the weather warmed up in the U.S. and Canada. In fact, management noted subscriber engagement and retention improved in the second quarter compared to the same period two years ago. The average Netflix subscriber around the world spent 17% more time streaming in this latest period than in the second quarter of 2019.\nThat statistic is particularly impressive in light of two factors investors would expect to result in an increase in churn and a decrease in engagement. First, Netflix raised its prices yet again in the U.S. and Canada (and other markets) in late 2020 and early 2021. Management previously noted some sensitivity to its last price increase in 2019, which showed up in its second-quarter results that year.\nThe second factor is the relatively light content slate of early 2021. COVID-19-related production delays forced much of Netflix's original content lineup to the second half of the year, more so than previous years. Management pointed out that content amortization over the first six months of the year increased just 9% year over year versus 17% in 2020 and 22% in 2019. Nonetheless, it seems Netflix's content spending is becoming more efficient as it scales.\nConsidering churn is one of the most important factors for the video-streaming industry, seeing Netflix continue to add total paid subscribers in this environment is a great sign for long-term growth.\n2. Limited impact from competition\nNetflix has a lot more competition than it did just a couple years ago.Walt Disney's Disney+ and AT&T's HBO Max have attracted a lot of attention, and other media companies have launched or expanded their streaming businesses.\nBut management says their entries into the market haven't had a big impact on Netflix's business. \"Does HBO or Disney or other entries have a differential impact compared to the past?\" co-CEO Reed Hastings asked rhetorically during Netflix's second-quarter earnings call. \"[W]e're not seeing that in the detail that we have per country,\" he said before adding, \"We're not seeing it in the total viewing.\"\nIn other words, when you look at Netflix's results in countries where the competitors are and where they aren't, management doesn't see a significant impact from the competition on its respective growth trajectories.\nNetflix's third-quarter outlook calls for 3.5 million global net additions. That's still a relatively low number of net additions for Netflix, but looking past the third quarter, there are a couple reasons to be optimistic.\nFirst of all, management expects net additions to normalize in the fourth quarter as the content slate catches back up, and it moves into a seasonally strong period. Netflix managed a strong fourth quarter in 2020 that was practically normal compared to 2019 and 2018. That didn't prevent the COVID-19 hangover from showing up in the first half of 2020, though. Nonetheless, a more normal fourth quarter is a sign that content is the key to driving subscriber growth and should provide confidence for 2022 and beyond.\nSecond, the secular growth of streaming is still in its early stages. Management pointed to Nielsen data that showedstreaming accounted for just 26% of screen timein the U.S., and the vast majority of time spent watching television still goes to linear networks. Nielsen expects streaming to increase its share of screen time to 33% by the end of the year and to keep growing in 2022 and beyond. Netflix should be a beneficiary of this secular trend as more people cut the cord and shift to streaming as their primary source of video entertainment.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NFLX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1012,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}