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Velia
2021-12-28

Long term growth investors just buy and hold, don't panic sell

Sea Limited: A Deep Dive To Understand The Recent Selloff<blockquote>Sea Limited：深入了解最近的抛售</blockquote>

Summary Sea Limited is a highly diversified business firing on all cylinders in some of the fastest

Sea Limited: A Deep Dive To Understand The Recent Selloff<blockquote>Sea Limited：深入了解最近的抛售</blockquote>

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

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I'd already done an in-depth analysis of my other nine picks in other Seeking Alpha articles, so I thought it would be good to close out the year with an article about Sea.<blockquote>我最近写了一篇文章，重点介绍了我选择的2022年十大股票。我已经在其他Seeking Alpha文章中对我的其他九个选择进行了深入分析，所以我认为最好以一篇关于Sea的文章来结束这一年。</blockquote> Furthermore, with shares down significantly over the past couple of months (but still slightly up for the year), I believe this article may prove timely. I don't speculate on short-term market movements, but I personally added to my Sea shares recently. It's one of my only losing positions that I didn't sell out of temporarily for tax-loss harvesting, and in this article, I will explain why Sea is such a high conviction holding for me.<blockquote>此外，由于过去几个月股价大幅下跌（但今年仍略有上涨），我相信这篇文章可能是及时的。我不推测短期市场走势，但我个人最近增持了Sea股票。这是我唯一没有为了收获税收损失而暂时卖出的亏损头寸之一，在本文中，我将解释为什么Sea对我来说是如此坚定的持有。</blockquote> It's also worth noting that many professional investors seem to share this opinion. Sea is the 121st largest company in the world, but it's the16thmost popular holding among hedge funds. This implies that big money is overweight Sea, with 71% of shares held by institutions.<blockquote>还值得注意的是，许多专业投资者似乎也认同这一观点。Sea是全球第121大公司，但在对冲基金中排名第16位。这暗示大资金是跑赢大盘海，71%的股份被机构持有。</blockquote> Because Sea operates in many different areas, I will do a separate analysis of each of its operating segments to justify its current valuation and explain how that valuation could drive unexpectedly strong returns for years.<blockquote>由于Sea在许多不同的领域开展业务，我将对其每个运营部门进行单独分析，以证明其当前估值的合理性，并解释该估值如何在多年来推动意想不到的强劲回报。</blockquote> Gaming<blockquote>游戏</blockquote> Sea Limited's gaming segment Garena is best known for Free Fire, a mobile battle royale game that was developed in-house.<blockquote>Sea Limited的游戏部门Garena因其内部开发的移动大逃杀游戏《Free Fire》而闻名。</blockquote> The game was released in 2017 and has been very popular ever since. It currently has the second most monthly active users among all Android games globally. The game is available worldwide, but it's particularly popular in emerging markets like SEA, LATAM, and India, where it's been the highest-grossing mobile game for over two years.<blockquote>该游戏于2017年发布，此后一直非常受欢迎。它目前在全球所有安卓游戏中拥有第二大月活跃用户。这款游戏在全球范围内都有售，但在东南亚、拉美和印度等新兴市场尤其受欢迎，两年多来，它一直是这些市场票房最高的手机游戏。</blockquote> With the game having been popular for a long time already, there's some concern that gamers will move on to the next big thing. Although there are some mobile games that are older than Free Fire and still very popular - like Roblox, Clash of Clans, and Pokemon Go - there are many more that have been forgotten. Until Garena releases more games and proves that it can be successful with them too, there will always be questions about whether its studio is a one-hit wonder.<blockquote>随着这款游戏已经流行了很长时间，有人担心游戏玩家会转向下一件大事。虽然有一些手机游戏比Free Fire更古老，但仍然非常受欢迎——如Roblox、Clash of Clans和Pokemon Go——但还有更多已经被遗忘。在Garena发布更多游戏并证明它也可以在这些游戏上取得成功之前，总会有人质疑它的工作室是否是一个昙花一现的奇迹。</blockquote> Regardless, Garena is a critical part of Sea because it's the only profitable segment and it doubles a social platform that provides free advertising for Sea's non-gaming products. Cross-promotion is a huge competitive advantage for Sea.<blockquote>无论如何，Garena是Sea的重要组成部分，因为它是唯一盈利的细分市场，并且它是为Sea非游戏产品提供免费广告的社交平台的两倍。交叉推广是Sea的巨大竞争优势。</blockquote> Thus, one reason for Sea's recent selloff could be the Q4 guidance implied for Garena.<blockquote>因此，Sea最近抛售的原因之一可能是Garena暗示的第四季度指引。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e299727cc28a887a36d88831aec8f53\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"334\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Earnings Call Presentation<blockquote>资料来源：看涨期权收益演示</blockquote> In Q2 this year, Garena raised its guidance to $4.5B-$4.7B for 2021 bookings (up from $4.3B-$4.5B). With the first three quarters already totaling $3.5B, this implies that Q4 bookings will come in at $1.0B-$1.2B, up between 0% and 20% year over year, and likely down sequentially. This is compared to 29% growth in the most recent quarter and 44% projected growth for the full year.<blockquote>今年第二季度，Garena将2021年预订量的指导上调至45亿美元至47亿美元（高于43亿美元至45亿美元）。由于前三个季度的总预订量已经达到$3.5 B，这意味着第四季度的预订量将达到$1.0 B-$1.2 B，同比增长0%至20%，并且可能会环比下降。相比之下，最近一个季度的增长率为29%，全年预计增长率为44%。</blockquote> While 20% isn't a terrible deceleration, 0% certainly is. Even 20% growth isn't spectacular compared to the historic levels. At the 10% midpoint, Garena's growth looks more similar to that of a mature company like Activision (NASDAQ:ATVI) or Zynga (NASDAQ:ZNGA) than a fast-growing company like Roblox (NYSE:RBLX).<blockquote>虽然20%并不是一个可怕的减速，但0%肯定是。与历史水平相比，即使是20%的增长也并不引人注目。在10%的中点，Garena的增长看起来更类似于动视暴雪（纳斯达克股票代码：ATVI）或Zynga（纳斯达克股票代码：ZNGA）等成熟公司，而不是Roblox（纽约证券交易所股票代码：RBLX）等快速增长的公司。</blockquote> Garena's implied valuation should - and did - suffer as a result. While a fast-growing company like Roblox can command a high double-digit P/S multiple, Activision and Zynga trade at an average P/S multiple of just 4. Garena is slightly more profitable than them and probably has more risk to the upside, so I'll use a P/S multiple of 5 for my implied valuation. This implies a P/E of about 10 for a business growing at around 10%, which is very reasonable in today's market.<blockquote>Garena的隐含估值应该——也确实——因此受到影响。虽然像Roblox这样快速增长的公司可以获得两位数的高市盈率，但动视暴雪和Zynga的平均市盈率仅为4倍。Garena的利润比他们略高，而且可能有更大的上行风险，因此我将使用市盈率倍数5作为我的隐含估值。这意味着一家增长率在10%左右的企业的市盈率约为10，这在当今市场上是非常合理的。</blockquote> This means Garena is worth $23.5B based on the high end of management's guidance.<blockquote>这意味着根据管理层指导的高端，Garena的价值为235亿美元。</blockquote> I believe this valuation is actually conservative for a few reasons:<blockquote>我相信这个估值实际上是保守的，原因有几个：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Next year has tough comps and growth could re-accelerate in the following years or even next year, especially if Garena releases a new hit game. The growth rate past next quarter is not based on explicit guidance from the company, only industry forecasts.</li> <li>The peer valuations I used are from companies also trading at the lower end of their valuation range for the past year.</li> <li>Garena has a good track record and is continuing to invest in Free Fire. One example of this is the recently released Free Fire MAX, which improves the experience for users with higher-end phones and even adds a metaverse-like customizable map called Craftland. To me, this implies that Garena believes Free Fire is still in the earlier part of its lifecycle.</li> <li>Although I'd obviously prefer that Garena develops more games in house, in the meantime it's still not a one-trick pony. In addition to Free Fire, Garena distributes games from third-party developers like Tencent (OTCMKTS:OTCPK:TCEHY). These are popular titles like League of Legends and Call of Duty, which meaningfully diversify Garena's revenue.</li> </ul> E-Commerce<blockquote><ul><li>明年的竞争很艰难，增长可能会在接下来的几年甚至明年重新加速，特别是如果Garena发布一款新的热门游戏。下个季度的增长率不是基于公司的明确指导，而是基于行业预测。</li><li>我使用的同行估值来自去年交易价格也处于估值范围下限的公司。</li><li>Garena拥有良好的业绩记录，并将继续投资Free Fire。这方面的一个例子是最近发布的Free Fire MAX，它改善了高端手机用户的体验，甚至添加了一个类似元宇宙的可定制地图，名为Craftland。对我来说，这意味着Garena认为Free Fire仍处于其生命周期的早期阶段。</li><li>虽然我显然更希望Garena在内部开发更多的游戏，但与此同时，它仍然不是一匹只会一招的小马。除了Free Fire之外，Garena还发行腾讯控股(OTCMKTS：OTCPK：TCEHY)等第三方开发商的游戏。这些都是像《英雄联盟》和《使命看涨期权》这样受欢迎的游戏，它们有意义地使Garena的收入多样化。</li></ul>电子商务</blockquote> Sea's e-commerce platform Shopee is currently its big growth driver. This platform is often considered the Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) of Southeast Asia, and it recently expanded into more markets including Brazil.<blockquote>Sea的电子商务平台Shopee目前是其最大的增长动力。该平台通常被认为是东南亚的亚马逊（纳斯达克：AMZN），最近它扩展到包括巴西在内的更多市场。</blockquote> There's always some debate about who is really the Amazon of a region. Shopee certainly has competition, including from Alibaba's (NYSE:BABA) Lazada, Tokopedia in Indonesia, MercadoLibre (MELI) in Brazil, and even Amazon itself. With most of the competition being private or tucked away into a larger company, many of the competitors don't publish exact revenue numbers, which makes it difficult to measure the competition. Even Sea hasn't published explicit revenue numbers for some countries like Brazil.<blockquote>关于谁是一个地区真正的亚马逊，总是有一些争论。Shopee当然面临竞争，包括来自阿里巴巴-SW（NYSE：BABA）的Lazada、印度尼西亚的Tokopedia、巴西的MercadoLibre(MELI)，甚至Amazon本身。由于大多数竞争都是私人的或隐藏在更大的公司中，许多竞争对手不会公布确切的收入数字，这使得衡量竞争变得困难。就连Sea也没有公布巴西等一些国家的明确收入数据。</blockquote> One neutral source that can be assessed is the Alexa site rank, which as its name suggests ranks sites by their popularity. Keep in mind that these are ranks, so a lower score is better.<blockquote>一个可以评估的中立来源是Alexa网站排名，顾名思义，它根据网站的受欢迎程度对网站进行排名。请记住，这些都是排名，所以分数越低越好。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/180367a2b64bccebf243c5b6d8fb776a\" tg-width=\"455\" tg-height=\"353\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: The Author, compiled from Alexa<blockquote>来源：作者，编译自Alexa</blockquote> Shopee is very mobile-focused, but the above table only considers the website. To check App Store app ranks for the shopping category, we can use App Annie.<blockquote>Shopee非常专注于移动，但上表只考虑了网站。要查看购物类别的App Store应用排名，我们可以使用App Annie。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6544f014a5d70d13ee14dab0ac8b6782\" tg-width=\"422\" tg-height=\"403\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: The Author, compiled from AppAnnie<blockquote>来源：作者，编译自AppAnnie</blockquote> On the mobile side, there's no need to look at the competition because Shopee is consistently the number one shopping app in every country listed. In a mobile-first world, this bodes very well. Even on the web side, Shopee wins out except in a few specific regions like LATAM and (barely) Indonesia, which have more local competitors.<blockquote>在移动端，没有必要关注竞争，因为Shopee一直是每个国家排名第一的购物应用。在移动优先的世界里，这是个好兆头。即使在网络方面，Shopee也胜出，除了拉丁美洲和（勉强）印度尼西亚等少数特定地区，这些地区有更多的本地竞争对手。</blockquote> Of course, traffic doesn't always translate to GMV. But for a shopping app where most people will use the app to buy something, it's a decent proxy. A third party estimates that Shopee accounts for57%of all e-commerce in Southeast Asia. It's Shopee's dominance in the mobile app ranks and market share that make me consider it the Amazon of Southeast Asia.<blockquote>当然，流量并不总是转化为GMV。但对于一个大多数人都会使用该应用程序购买东西的购物应用程序来说，这是一个不错的代理。第三方估计Shopee占东南亚所有电子商务的57%。正是Shopee在移动应用排名和市场份额方面的主导地位让我认为它是东南亚的亚马逊。</blockquote> So why would a company with so much potential sell off?<blockquote>那么，为什么一家潜力如此之大的公司会抛售呢？</blockquote> After the recent earnings report, some analysts expressed concern that Shopee is branching out into other countries like Poland and Mexico before validating its business model in the current markets. In these countries, Shopee has less of a presence; it's bounced between the 3-5 spots on the Mexico App Store for shopping apps, and between spots 1 and 3 in Poland. Although analysts hate uncertainty - and the CEO's comments that they don't have a concrete measure of success in these earlier stage countries won't help with that - Shopee has a history of entering new countries successfully and I am willing to give management some time to try expanding more. After all, if they're successful, then it could drive even more unexpected growth in the future.<blockquote>在最近的财报发布后，一些分析师对Shopee在当前市场验证其商业模式之前将业务扩展到波兰和墨西哥等其他国家表示担忧。在这些国家，Shopee的影响力较小；它在墨西哥应用商店购物应用的3-5位之间波动，在波兰的1-3位之间波动。尽管分析师讨厌不确定性——而且首席执行官关于他们在这些早期国家没有具体的成功衡量标准的评论对此没有帮助——但Shopee有着成功进入新国家的历史，我愿意给管理层一些时间尝试进一步扩张。毕竟，如果他们成功了，那么它可能会在未来推动更多意想不到的增长。</blockquote> Another complaint from analysts was that the basket size (average purchase size) is trending down. While that could also have contributed to the recent selloff, it's hard to complain when the overall sales increased a lot despite a decrease in basket size.<blockquote>分析师的另一个抱怨是篮子规模（平均购买规模）呈下降趋势。虽然这也可能导致了最近的抛售，但尽管篮子规模有所下降，但当整体销售额大幅增长时，很难抱怨。</blockquote> The company raised its guidance for e-commerce again in Q3, now guiding for $5.0B-$5.2B in 2021 e-commerce revenue. That's 75%-100% growth in Q4 and about 135% growth for the year. These are much more exciting numbers than the gaming side, although the guidance still implies a slight deceleration in Q4. But compared to Amazon's $340B in 2020 e-commerce sales, Shopee looks like it's just scratched the surface. E-commerce is at only11%penetration in Southeast Asia compared to18.7%in the USA, and Southeast Asia economies are generally growing faster than the USA's.<blockquote>该公司在第三季度再次上调了电子商务指引，目前预计2021年电子商务收入为$5.0 B-$5.2 B。第四季度增长75%-100%，全年增长约135%。这些数字比游戏方面更令人兴奋，尽管指导仍然意味着第四季度略有减速。但与亚马逊2020年3400亿美元的电子商务销售额相比，Shopee看起来只是触及了表面。电子商务在东南亚的渗透率仅为11%，而美国为18.7%，东南亚经济体的增长速度普遍高于美国。</blockquote> Despite being in a blue skies industry, it's more difficult to value the e-commerce segment because it operates at a loss (whereas the gaming segment is highly profitable). Shopee's success is not guaranteed because it's not clear at this point whether the platform can become profitable while retaining its market share. Stocks like this tend to experience more volatility, which could partially explain the recent selloff.<blockquote>尽管处于蓝天行业，但对电子商务部门进行估值更加困难，因为它处于亏损状态（而游戏部门利润丰厚）。Shopee的成功并不能保证，因为目前尚不清楚该平台能否在保持市场份额的同时实现盈利。像这样的股票往往会经历更大的波动，这可以部分解释最近的抛售。</blockquote> For unprofitable software companies, I like to use the Rule of 40 to assess the business. But it's difficult to apply this rule to a more cyclical e-commerce company with naturally lower margins. Even so, it's worth noting that despite being unprofitable, Sea's Rule of 40 score of 104 is better than most SaaS companies', and also better than e-commerce peers Amazon (21), MercadoLibre (73), and Alibaba (43).<blockquote>对于不盈利的软件公司，我喜欢用40法则来评估业务。但很难将这一规则应用于利润率自然较低、周期性较强的电子商务公司。即便如此，值得注意的是，尽管没有盈利，Sea的40分（104分）优于大多数SaaS公司，也优于电子商务同行Amazon（21分）、MercadoLibre（73分）和阿里巴巴-SW（43分）。</blockquote> To understand Shopee's terminal valuation once it becomes profitable, we can look at industry peers. Amazon is one profitable and slower-growing peer, and it trades at 4x P/S. AWS pushes this number up, but Amazon's high exposure to first-party sales offsets that. Other e-commerce marketplace peers trade at similar valuations: Alibaba at 3x P/S, MercadoLibre at 9x P/S. All of these valuations are basically all-time lows.<blockquote>要了解Shopee盈利后的终端估值，我们可以看看行业同行。亚马逊是一家盈利且增长较慢的同行，其市盈率为4倍。AWS推高了这一数字，但亚马逊对第一方销售的高敞口抵消了这一影响。其他电子商务市场同行的估值类似：阿里巴巴-SW的市盈率为3倍，MercadoLibre的市盈率为9倍。所有这些估值基本上都是历史低点。</blockquote> If Shopee keeps doubling revenue over the next couple of years (which it's easily done every year since 2016), becomes profitable (which scaling up tends to help with), and will have Amazon's P/S multiple in two years, then at 16 P/S today it would trade flat for two years. But if it keeps growing much faster than Amazon over a longer period like a decade, and/or if the overall industry multiples expand to more normal historical levels, then even at 16x P/S this segment has potential upside. On the other hand, if it stops growing or never becomes profitable then investors will be very disappointed at any P/S.<blockquote>如果Shopee在未来几年内收入持续翻倍（自2016年以来每年都很容易做到），实现盈利（扩大规模往往会有所帮助），并在两年内达到亚马逊的市盈率倍数，那么今天的市盈率为16倍，它将在两年内持平。但如果它在十年等较长时间内保持比亚马逊快得多的增长速度，和/或如果整个行业市盈率扩大到更正常的历史水平，那么即使市盈率为16倍，该细分市场也有潜在的上涨空间。另一方面，如果它停止增长或永远无法盈利，那么投资者将对任何市盈率感到非常失望。</blockquote> Given this wide range of outcomes, each person is going to have their own way of valuing this segment. For me, when I look at Shopee's mobile dominance, relatively small current size, the funding coming in from Garena, and the precedent set by Amazon, Alibaba, and MercadoLibre for the sustainable long-term success of this business model, I am optimistic about this segment's future. I recognize that it's currently an unprofitable and thus risky segment, but I also see the massive potential.<blockquote>鉴于这种广泛的结果，每个人都会有自己的方式来评估这一部分。对我来说，当我看到Shopee的移动主导地位、目前相对较小的规模、来自Garena的资金以及Amazon、阿里巴巴-SW和MercadoLibre为这种商业模式的可持续长期成功树立的先例时，我对这个细分市场的未来持乐观态度。我认识到这是一个目前无利可图且存在风险的细分市场，但我也看到了巨大的潜力。</blockquote> So I am happy paying a 16x P/S multiple, which values the e-commerce segment at $83.2B. Some people will call that way too high, and those people will probably never get a chance to invest in this company, for better or for worse.<blockquote>因此，我很高兴支付16倍的市盈率，这使得电子商务部门的估值为$832亿。有些人的看涨期权太高，这些人可能永远没有机会投资这家公司，无论好坏。</blockquote> Thus, with just Garena and Shopee, I have Sea being worth $106.7B. Its current market cap is $123.1B. To account for the difference, let's look at the other parts of Sea.<blockquote>因此，仅算上Garena和Shopee，我认为Sea的价值为$1067亿。其目前的市值为$123.1 B。为了解释这种差异，让我们看看海洋的其他部分。</blockquote> FinTech &amp; Investments<blockquote>金融科技与投资</blockquote> The easiest addition to my computed valuation is Sea's $12B cash pile, partially offset by $4B in debt. This adds some nice optionality to the company and ensures that it won't be bankrupt any time soon despite losing money with Shopee. Adding in the $8B cash difference puts my computed valuation at $114.7B, just $8.4B short of the actual valuation.<blockquote>我计算的估值中最容易增加的是Sea的120B美元现金储备，部分被40亿美元的债务抵消。这为该公司增加了一些不错的选择，并确保尽管Shopee亏损，但它不会很快破产。加上$8B现金差额，我的计算估值为$114.7 B，仅比实际估值低$8.4 B。</blockquote> Then there is Sea's FinTech arm, SeaMoney. The main product here is a mobile wallet, which was responsible for $4.6B in payment volume in the last quarter (~$20B over a year). This segment accounted for $132 million in Q3 revenue, up a whopping 818% year over year. This implies a \"take rate\" of 2.9%, which is even better than established FinTech companies like Visa (V). Because of this high take rate, I'm not worried about SeaMoney losing money while it scales.<blockquote>然后是Sea的金融科技部门SeaMoney。这里的主要产品是移动钱包，上个季度的支付量为46亿美元（一年约为200亿美元）。该部门第三季度收入为1.32亿美元，同比增长818%。这意味着2.9%的“采用率”，甚至比Visa(V)等老牌金融科技公司还要好。由于采用率很高，我并不担心SeaMoney在扩大规模时会亏损。</blockquote> Despite SeaMoney being a small segment, it's now reaching a point where it can be factored into the valuation. Maybe it's only worth a couple of billion, but this is just the start. Five years ago, nobody would have expected that an e-commerce platform accounting for 5% of Sea's sales would today be worth more than the gaming segment. But Sea's management - combined with Garena's ability to fund new segments and drive their viral adoption - made it happen. It's certainly not guaranteed that Sea will have the same success with FinTech, but there is precedent for it.<blockquote>尽管SeaMoney只是一个很小的细分市场，但它现在已经达到了可以纳入估值的程度。也许它只值几十亿，但这只是一个开始。五年前，没有人会想到，一个占Sea销售额5%的电子商务平台今天的价值会超过游戏领域。但Sea的管理层——加上Garena为新细分市场提供资金并推动其病毒式采用的能力——实现了这一目标。当然，不能保证Sea在金融科技方面会取得同样的成功，但这是有先例的。</blockquote> If one day this segment is worth a third or more of Sea (in 2020, FinTech accounted for 36% of MercadoLibre's revenue) then getting it for just 7% of the business today will be well worth it, even if that implies a somewhat high 16x P/S multiple for the segment today. Actually, this multiple is already lower than Visa's,&nbsp;Mastercard's (NYSE:MA), and Affirm's (NASDAQ:AFRM). Realistically, a segment growing at 818% year over year should probably get a higher multiple than these slower-growing companies', but we don't even need to speculate about what a fair multiple is, since we can reach Sea's current valuation by using 16x P/S in my model valuation.<blockquote>如果有一天这个细分市场的价值达到Sea的三分之一或更多（2020年，金融科技占MercadoLibre收入的36%），那么今天仅以7%的业务获得它将是非常值得的，即使这意味着今天该细分市场的市盈率为16倍。事实上，这个倍数已经低于Visa、Mastercard（纽约证券交易所股票代码：MA）和Affirm（纳斯达克股票代码：AFRM）。实际上，同比增长818%的细分市场可能应该比这些增长较慢的公司获得更高的市盈率，但我们甚至不需要猜测什么是公平市盈率，因为我们可以通过在我的模型估值中使用16倍市盈率来达到Sea当前的估值。</blockquote> One way this segment could grow even more is through the introduction of more products besides the mobile wallet. Sea noted in their recent earnings that they have started \"early initiatives in other digital financial services such as buy now pay later, digital bank, and insurtech.\" These guys sure know how to hop on the latest high growth trend.<blockquote>这一细分市场进一步增长的一个方法是推出除移动钱包之外的更多产品。Sea在最近的财报中指出，他们已经开始“在其他数字金融服务方面采取早期举措，例如先买后付、数字银行和保险科技”。这些人肯定知道如何抓住最新的高增长趋势。</blockquote> Finally, there's the investments arm. Sea is investing in early-stage tech companies, especially in Southeast Asia. There's strong precedent for companies like Tencent (which is itself an investor in Sea) and Shopify (NYSE:SHOP) managing successful investment portfolios that ultimately factor meaningfully into their valuation. Right now Sea's investment arm is very early stage, so I don't include it in my valuation model. But it doesn't have to be factored in to justify the current share price. It's just one more area that might be worth a large part of Sea one day.<blockquote>最后是投资部门。Sea正在投资早期科技公司，尤其是在东南亚。腾讯控股（其本身就是Sea的投资者）和Shopify（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SHOP）等公司管理成功的投资组合，最终对其估值产生有意义的影响，这是有先例的。目前Sea的投资部门还处于早期阶段，因此我没有将其纳入我的估值模型中。但不一定要考虑到这一点来证明当前股价的合理性。这只是又一个有一天可能抵得上一大部分海洋的区域。</blockquote> Conclusion<blockquote>结论</blockquote> Looking at each of Sea's segments, my valuation model indicates that Sea is fairly valued today. However, my model doesn't account for the significant optionality of the newer segments. Just like e-commerce did over the last five years, FinTech (and/or investments) could grow to become a very large part of Sea's business. With the FinTech segment currently growing at 818% year over year, it doesn't take much imagination to see how this happens. Just another year or two of growth at something close to that rate will make the FinTech arm impossible for investors to ignore.<blockquote>纵观Sea的每个细分市场，我的估值模型表明Sea目前的估值相当合理。然而，我的模型没有考虑到新细分市场的重要可选性。就像电子商务在过去五年中所做的那样，金融科技（和/或投资）可能会发展成为Sea业务的一个非常重要的部分。金融科技领域目前同比增长818%，不需要太多想象力就能看出这是如何发生的。只要再以接近这一速度增长一两年，投资者就无法忽视金融科技部门。</blockquote> This optionality combined general strength in each business has allowed Sea to post an average revenue beat of 7% over the past year. Earnings haven't been as strong, and I expect that to be the main point of contention with my valuation model, as is the case for most unprofitable companies. In particular, I expect some readers will disagree with my valuation of the e-commerce segment. But even if you drop e-commerce all the way down to 5x P/S (a multiple seen today by much slower growing e-commerce companies) that implies 54% downside from today's prices. It's a steep drop for sure, but most companies in today's market would be looking at such a decline if one were to use the most conservative valuation standards possible.<blockquote>这种选择性结合了每项业务的总体实力，使Sea在过去一年的平均收入增长了7%。盈利并没有那么强劲，我预计这将成为我的估值模型的主要争论点，就像大多数未盈利公司的情况一样。特别是，我预计一些读者会不同意我对电子商务领域的估值。但即使你将电子商务的市盈率一路降至5倍（这是当今增长缓慢得多的电子商务公司的市盈率），这也意味着比今天的价格下跌54%。这肯定是一个急剧的下跌，但如果使用最保守的估值标准，当今市场上的大多数公司都会看到这样的下跌。</blockquote> Only fast-growing companies like Sea can quickly offset such a decline with revenue growth. As a result, the businesses with the most long-term potential will hardly ever trade at the most conservative valuation possible. And Sea certainly has long-term potential. It's one of the few high-growth companies I own that I could see reaching a trillion-dollar market cap this decade.<blockquote>只有像Sea这样快速增长的公司才能用收入增长迅速抵消这种下降。因此，最具长期潜力的企业很难以最保守的估值进行交易。Sea当然具有长期潜力。这是我拥有的少数几家高增长公司之一，我认为这些公司在这十年内市值将达到万亿美元。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Sea Limited: A Deep Dive To Understand The Recent Selloff<blockquote>Sea Limited：深入了解最近的抛售</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSea Limited: A Deep Dive To Understand The Recent Selloff<blockquote>Sea Limited：深入了解最近的抛售</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-12-28 13:49\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Sea Limited is a highly diversified business firing on all cylinders in some of the fastest-growing economies in the world.</li> <li>I dive into each of its segments to understand the recent selloff and justify the current valuation.</li> <li>I consider Sea one of my ten highest conviction investments.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa5cbe0a30acc723a2c6f62300024002\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">kokkai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>Sea Limited是一家高度多元化的企业，在世界上一些增长最快的经济体中全力以赴。</li><li>我深入研究了它的每个细分市场，以了解最近的抛售并证明当前估值的合理性。</li><li>我认为Sea是我最有信心的十项投资之一。</li></ul>kokkai/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</blockquote> Thesis<blockquote>论文</blockquote> A by-parts analysis of Sea Limited's (NYSE:SE) segments shows that its current valuation is roughly fair, but there are many long-term growth drivers that could surprise to the upside and drive very strong returns for years to come.<blockquote>对Sea Limited（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SE）部门的细分分析表明，其目前的估值大致公平，但有许多长期增长动力可能会出人意料地上涨，并在未来几年推动非常强劲的回报。</blockquote> Introduction<blockquote>介绍</blockquote> I recently wrote an&nbsp;article&nbsp;highlighting my top 10 stock picks for 2022. I'd already done an in-depth analysis of my other nine picks in other Seeking Alpha articles, so I thought it would be good to close out the year with an article about Sea.<blockquote>我最近写了一篇文章，重点介绍了我选择的2022年十大股票。我已经在其他Seeking Alpha文章中对我的其他九个选择进行了深入分析，所以我认为最好以一篇关于Sea的文章来结束这一年。</blockquote> Furthermore, with shares down significantly over the past couple of months (but still slightly up for the year), I believe this article may prove timely. I don't speculate on short-term market movements, but I personally added to my Sea shares recently. It's one of my only losing positions that I didn't sell out of temporarily for tax-loss harvesting, and in this article, I will explain why Sea is such a high conviction holding for me.<blockquote>此外，由于过去几个月股价大幅下跌（但今年仍略有上涨），我相信这篇文章可能是及时的。我不推测短期市场走势，但我个人最近增持了Sea股票。这是我唯一没有为了收获税收损失而暂时卖出的亏损头寸之一，在本文中，我将解释为什么Sea对我来说是如此坚定的持有。</blockquote> It's also worth noting that many professional investors seem to share this opinion. Sea is the 121st largest company in the world, but it's the16thmost popular holding among hedge funds. This implies that big money is overweight Sea, with 71% of shares held by institutions.<blockquote>还值得注意的是，许多专业投资者似乎也认同这一观点。Sea是全球第121大公司，但在对冲基金中排名第16位。这暗示大资金是跑赢大盘海，71%的股份被机构持有。</blockquote> Because Sea operates in many different areas, I will do a separate analysis of each of its operating segments to justify its current valuation and explain how that valuation could drive unexpectedly strong returns for years.<blockquote>由于Sea在许多不同的领域开展业务，我将对其每个运营部门进行单独分析，以证明其当前估值的合理性，并解释该估值如何在多年来推动意想不到的强劲回报。</blockquote> Gaming<blockquote>游戏</blockquote> Sea Limited's gaming segment Garena is best known for Free Fire, a mobile battle royale game that was developed in-house.<blockquote>Sea Limited的游戏部门Garena因其内部开发的移动大逃杀游戏《Free Fire》而闻名。</blockquote> The game was released in 2017 and has been very popular ever since. It currently has the second most monthly active users among all Android games globally. The game is available worldwide, but it's particularly popular in emerging markets like SEA, LATAM, and India, where it's been the highest-grossing mobile game for over two years.<blockquote>该游戏于2017年发布，此后一直非常受欢迎。它目前在全球所有安卓游戏中拥有第二大月活跃用户。这款游戏在全球范围内都有售，但在东南亚、拉美和印度等新兴市场尤其受欢迎，两年多来，它一直是这些市场票房最高的手机游戏。</blockquote> With the game having been popular for a long time already, there's some concern that gamers will move on to the next big thing. Although there are some mobile games that are older than Free Fire and still very popular - like Roblox, Clash of Clans, and Pokemon Go - there are many more that have been forgotten. Until Garena releases more games and proves that it can be successful with them too, there will always be questions about whether its studio is a one-hit wonder.<blockquote>随着这款游戏已经流行了很长时间，有人担心游戏玩家会转向下一件大事。虽然有一些手机游戏比Free Fire更古老，但仍然非常受欢迎——如Roblox、Clash of Clans和Pokemon Go——但还有更多已经被遗忘。在Garena发布更多游戏并证明它也可以在这些游戏上取得成功之前，总会有人质疑它的工作室是否是一个昙花一现的奇迹。</blockquote> Regardless, Garena is a critical part of Sea because it's the only profitable segment and it doubles a social platform that provides free advertising for Sea's non-gaming products. Cross-promotion is a huge competitive advantage for Sea.<blockquote>无论如何，Garena是Sea的重要组成部分，因为它是唯一盈利的细分市场，并且它是为Sea非游戏产品提供免费广告的社交平台的两倍。交叉推广是Sea的巨大竞争优势。</blockquote> Thus, one reason for Sea's recent selloff could be the Q4 guidance implied for Garena.<blockquote>因此，Sea最近抛售的原因之一可能是Garena暗示的第四季度指引。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e299727cc28a887a36d88831aec8f53\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"334\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Earnings Call Presentation<blockquote>资料来源：看涨期权收益演示</blockquote> In Q2 this year, Garena raised its guidance to $4.5B-$4.7B for 2021 bookings (up from $4.3B-$4.5B). With the first three quarters already totaling $3.5B, this implies that Q4 bookings will come in at $1.0B-$1.2B, up between 0% and 20% year over year, and likely down sequentially. This is compared to 29% growth in the most recent quarter and 44% projected growth for the full year.<blockquote>今年第二季度，Garena将2021年预订量的指导上调至45亿美元至47亿美元（高于43亿美元至45亿美元）。由于前三个季度的总预订量已经达到$3.5 B，这意味着第四季度的预订量将达到$1.0 B-$1.2 B，同比增长0%至20%，并且可能会环比下降。相比之下，最近一个季度的增长率为29%，全年预计增长率为44%。</blockquote> While 20% isn't a terrible deceleration, 0% certainly is. Even 20% growth isn't spectacular compared to the historic levels. At the 10% midpoint, Garena's growth looks more similar to that of a mature company like Activision (NASDAQ:ATVI) or Zynga (NASDAQ:ZNGA) than a fast-growing company like Roblox (NYSE:RBLX).<blockquote>虽然20%并不是一个可怕的减速，但0%肯定是。与历史水平相比，即使是20%的增长也并不引人注目。在10%的中点，Garena的增长看起来更类似于动视暴雪（纳斯达克股票代码：ATVI）或Zynga（纳斯达克股票代码：ZNGA）等成熟公司，而不是Roblox（纽约证券交易所股票代码：RBLX）等快速增长的公司。</blockquote> Garena's implied valuation should - and did - suffer as a result. While a fast-growing company like Roblox can command a high double-digit P/S multiple, Activision and Zynga trade at an average P/S multiple of just 4. Garena is slightly more profitable than them and probably has more risk to the upside, so I'll use a P/S multiple of 5 for my implied valuation. This implies a P/E of about 10 for a business growing at around 10%, which is very reasonable in today's market.<blockquote>Garena的隐含估值应该——也确实——因此受到影响。虽然像Roblox这样快速增长的公司可以获得两位数的高市盈率，但动视暴雪和Zynga的平均市盈率仅为4倍。Garena的利润比他们略高，而且可能有更大的上行风险，因此我将使用市盈率倍数5作为我的隐含估值。这意味着一家增长率在10%左右的企业的市盈率约为10，这在当今市场上是非常合理的。</blockquote> This means Garena is worth $23.5B based on the high end of management's guidance.<blockquote>这意味着根据管理层指导的高端，Garena的价值为235亿美元。</blockquote> I believe this valuation is actually conservative for a few reasons:<blockquote>我相信这个估值实际上是保守的，原因有几个：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Next year has tough comps and growth could re-accelerate in the following years or even next year, especially if Garena releases a new hit game. The growth rate past next quarter is not based on explicit guidance from the company, only industry forecasts.</li> <li>The peer valuations I used are from companies also trading at the lower end of their valuation range for the past year.</li> <li>Garena has a good track record and is continuing to invest in Free Fire. One example of this is the recently released Free Fire MAX, which improves the experience for users with higher-end phones and even adds a metaverse-like customizable map called Craftland. To me, this implies that Garena believes Free Fire is still in the earlier part of its lifecycle.</li> <li>Although I'd obviously prefer that Garena develops more games in house, in the meantime it's still not a one-trick pony. In addition to Free Fire, Garena distributes games from third-party developers like Tencent (OTCMKTS:OTCPK:TCEHY). These are popular titles like League of Legends and Call of Duty, which meaningfully diversify Garena's revenue.</li> </ul> E-Commerce<blockquote><ul><li>明年的竞争很艰难，增长可能会在接下来的几年甚至明年重新加速，特别是如果Garena发布一款新的热门游戏。下个季度的增长率不是基于公司的明确指导，而是基于行业预测。</li><li>我使用的同行估值来自去年交易价格也处于估值范围下限的公司。</li><li>Garena拥有良好的业绩记录，并将继续投资Free Fire。这方面的一个例子是最近发布的Free Fire MAX，它改善了高端手机用户的体验，甚至添加了一个类似元宇宙的可定制地图，名为Craftland。对我来说，这意味着Garena认为Free Fire仍处于其生命周期的早期阶段。</li><li>虽然我显然更希望Garena在内部开发更多的游戏，但与此同时，它仍然不是一匹只会一招的小马。除了Free Fire之外，Garena还发行腾讯控股(OTCMKTS：OTCPK：TCEHY)等第三方开发商的游戏。这些都是像《英雄联盟》和《使命看涨期权》这样受欢迎的游戏，它们有意义地使Garena的收入多样化。</li></ul>电子商务</blockquote> Sea's e-commerce platform Shopee is currently its big growth driver. This platform is often considered the Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) of Southeast Asia, and it recently expanded into more markets including Brazil.<blockquote>Sea的电子商务平台Shopee目前是其最大的增长动力。该平台通常被认为是东南亚的亚马逊（纳斯达克：AMZN），最近它扩展到包括巴西在内的更多市场。</blockquote> There's always some debate about who is really the Amazon of a region. Shopee certainly has competition, including from Alibaba's (NYSE:BABA) Lazada, Tokopedia in Indonesia, MercadoLibre (MELI) in Brazil, and even Amazon itself. With most of the competition being private or tucked away into a larger company, many of the competitors don't publish exact revenue numbers, which makes it difficult to measure the competition. Even Sea hasn't published explicit revenue numbers for some countries like Brazil.<blockquote>关于谁是一个地区真正的亚马逊，总是有一些争论。Shopee当然面临竞争，包括来自阿里巴巴-SW（NYSE：BABA）的Lazada、印度尼西亚的Tokopedia、巴西的MercadoLibre(MELI)，甚至Amazon本身。由于大多数竞争都是私人的或隐藏在更大的公司中，许多竞争对手不会公布确切的收入数字，这使得衡量竞争变得困难。就连Sea也没有公布巴西等一些国家的明确收入数据。</blockquote> One neutral source that can be assessed is the Alexa site rank, which as its name suggests ranks sites by their popularity. Keep in mind that these are ranks, so a lower score is better.<blockquote>一个可以评估的中立来源是Alexa网站排名，顾名思义，它根据网站的受欢迎程度对网站进行排名。请记住，这些都是排名，所以分数越低越好。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/180367a2b64bccebf243c5b6d8fb776a\" tg-width=\"455\" tg-height=\"353\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: The Author, compiled from Alexa<blockquote>来源：作者，编译自Alexa</blockquote> Shopee is very mobile-focused, but the above table only considers the website. To check App Store app ranks for the shopping category, we can use App Annie.<blockquote>Shopee非常专注于移动，但上表只考虑了网站。要查看购物类别的App Store应用排名，我们可以使用App Annie。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6544f014a5d70d13ee14dab0ac8b6782\" tg-width=\"422\" tg-height=\"403\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: The Author, compiled from AppAnnie<blockquote>来源：作者，编译自AppAnnie</blockquote> On the mobile side, there's no need to look at the competition because Shopee is consistently the number one shopping app in every country listed. In a mobile-first world, this bodes very well. Even on the web side, Shopee wins out except in a few specific regions like LATAM and (barely) Indonesia, which have more local competitors.<blockquote>在移动端，没有必要关注竞争，因为Shopee一直是每个国家排名第一的购物应用。在移动优先的世界里，这是个好兆头。即使在网络方面，Shopee也胜出，除了拉丁美洲和（勉强）印度尼西亚等少数特定地区，这些地区有更多的本地竞争对手。</blockquote> Of course, traffic doesn't always translate to GMV. But for a shopping app where most people will use the app to buy something, it's a decent proxy. A third party estimates that Shopee accounts for57%of all e-commerce in Southeast Asia. It's Shopee's dominance in the mobile app ranks and market share that make me consider it the Amazon of Southeast Asia.<blockquote>当然，流量并不总是转化为GMV。但对于一个大多数人都会使用该应用程序购买东西的购物应用程序来说，这是一个不错的代理。第三方估计Shopee占东南亚所有电子商务的57%。正是Shopee在移动应用排名和市场份额方面的主导地位让我认为它是东南亚的亚马逊。</blockquote> So why would a company with so much potential sell off?<blockquote>那么，为什么一家潜力如此之大的公司会抛售呢？</blockquote> After the recent earnings report, some analysts expressed concern that Shopee is branching out into other countries like Poland and Mexico before validating its business model in the current markets. In these countries, Shopee has less of a presence; it's bounced between the 3-5 spots on the Mexico App Store for shopping apps, and between spots 1 and 3 in Poland. Although analysts hate uncertainty - and the CEO's comments that they don't have a concrete measure of success in these earlier stage countries won't help with that - Shopee has a history of entering new countries successfully and I am willing to give management some time to try expanding more. After all, if they're successful, then it could drive even more unexpected growth in the future.<blockquote>在最近的财报发布后，一些分析师对Shopee在当前市场验证其商业模式之前将业务扩展到波兰和墨西哥等其他国家表示担忧。在这些国家，Shopee的影响力较小；它在墨西哥应用商店购物应用的3-5位之间波动，在波兰的1-3位之间波动。尽管分析师讨厌不确定性——而且首席执行官关于他们在这些早期国家没有具体的成功衡量标准的评论对此没有帮助——但Shopee有着成功进入新国家的历史，我愿意给管理层一些时间尝试进一步扩张。毕竟，如果他们成功了，那么它可能会在未来推动更多意想不到的增长。</blockquote> Another complaint from analysts was that the basket size (average purchase size) is trending down. While that could also have contributed to the recent selloff, it's hard to complain when the overall sales increased a lot despite a decrease in basket size.<blockquote>分析师的另一个抱怨是篮子规模（平均购买规模）呈下降趋势。虽然这也可能导致了最近的抛售，但尽管篮子规模有所下降，但当整体销售额大幅增长时，很难抱怨。</blockquote> The company raised its guidance for e-commerce again in Q3, now guiding for $5.0B-$5.2B in 2021 e-commerce revenue. That's 75%-100% growth in Q4 and about 135% growth for the year. These are much more exciting numbers than the gaming side, although the guidance still implies a slight deceleration in Q4. But compared to Amazon's $340B in 2020 e-commerce sales, Shopee looks like it's just scratched the surface. E-commerce is at only11%penetration in Southeast Asia compared to18.7%in the USA, and Southeast Asia economies are generally growing faster than the USA's.<blockquote>该公司在第三季度再次上调了电子商务指引，目前预计2021年电子商务收入为$5.0 B-$5.2 B。第四季度增长75%-100%，全年增长约135%。这些数字比游戏方面更令人兴奋，尽管指导仍然意味着第四季度略有减速。但与亚马逊2020年3400亿美元的电子商务销售额相比，Shopee看起来只是触及了表面。电子商务在东南亚的渗透率仅为11%，而美国为18.7%，东南亚经济体的增长速度普遍高于美国。</blockquote> Despite being in a blue skies industry, it's more difficult to value the e-commerce segment because it operates at a loss (whereas the gaming segment is highly profitable). Shopee's success is not guaranteed because it's not clear at this point whether the platform can become profitable while retaining its market share. Stocks like this tend to experience more volatility, which could partially explain the recent selloff.<blockquote>尽管处于蓝天行业，但对电子商务部门进行估值更加困难，因为它处于亏损状态（而游戏部门利润丰厚）。Shopee的成功并不能保证，因为目前尚不清楚该平台能否在保持市场份额的同时实现盈利。像这样的股票往往会经历更大的波动，这可以部分解释最近的抛售。</blockquote> For unprofitable software companies, I like to use the Rule of 40 to assess the business. But it's difficult to apply this rule to a more cyclical e-commerce company with naturally lower margins. Even so, it's worth noting that despite being unprofitable, Sea's Rule of 40 score of 104 is better than most SaaS companies', and also better than e-commerce peers Amazon (21), MercadoLibre (73), and Alibaba (43).<blockquote>对于不盈利的软件公司，我喜欢用40法则来评估业务。但很难将这一规则应用于利润率自然较低、周期性较强的电子商务公司。即便如此，值得注意的是，尽管没有盈利，Sea的40分（104分）优于大多数SaaS公司，也优于电子商务同行Amazon（21分）、MercadoLibre（73分）和阿里巴巴-SW（43分）。</blockquote> To understand Shopee's terminal valuation once it becomes profitable, we can look at industry peers. Amazon is one profitable and slower-growing peer, and it trades at 4x P/S. AWS pushes this number up, but Amazon's high exposure to first-party sales offsets that. Other e-commerce marketplace peers trade at similar valuations: Alibaba at 3x P/S, MercadoLibre at 9x P/S. All of these valuations are basically all-time lows.<blockquote>要了解Shopee盈利后的终端估值，我们可以看看行业同行。亚马逊是一家盈利且增长较慢的同行，其市盈率为4倍。AWS推高了这一数字，但亚马逊对第一方销售的高敞口抵消了这一影响。其他电子商务市场同行的估值类似：阿里巴巴-SW的市盈率为3倍，MercadoLibre的市盈率为9倍。所有这些估值基本上都是历史低点。</blockquote> If Shopee keeps doubling revenue over the next couple of years (which it's easily done every year since 2016), becomes profitable (which scaling up tends to help with), and will have Amazon's P/S multiple in two years, then at 16 P/S today it would trade flat for two years. But if it keeps growing much faster than Amazon over a longer period like a decade, and/or if the overall industry multiples expand to more normal historical levels, then even at 16x P/S this segment has potential upside. On the other hand, if it stops growing or never becomes profitable then investors will be very disappointed at any P/S.<blockquote>如果Shopee在未来几年内收入持续翻倍（自2016年以来每年都很容易做到），实现盈利（扩大规模往往会有所帮助），并在两年内达到亚马逊的市盈率倍数，那么今天的市盈率为16倍，它将在两年内持平。但如果它在十年等较长时间内保持比亚马逊快得多的增长速度，和/或如果整个行业市盈率扩大到更正常的历史水平，那么即使市盈率为16倍，该细分市场也有潜在的上涨空间。另一方面，如果它停止增长或永远无法盈利，那么投资者将对任何市盈率感到非常失望。</blockquote> Given this wide range of outcomes, each person is going to have their own way of valuing this segment. For me, when I look at Shopee's mobile dominance, relatively small current size, the funding coming in from Garena, and the precedent set by Amazon, Alibaba, and MercadoLibre for the sustainable long-term success of this business model, I am optimistic about this segment's future. I recognize that it's currently an unprofitable and thus risky segment, but I also see the massive potential.<blockquote>鉴于这种广泛的结果，每个人都会有自己的方式来评估这一部分。对我来说，当我看到Shopee的移动主导地位、目前相对较小的规模、来自Garena的资金以及Amazon、阿里巴巴-SW和MercadoLibre为这种商业模式的可持续长期成功树立的先例时，我对这个细分市场的未来持乐观态度。我认识到这是一个目前无利可图且存在风险的细分市场，但我也看到了巨大的潜力。</blockquote> So I am happy paying a 16x P/S multiple, which values the e-commerce segment at $83.2B. Some people will call that way too high, and those people will probably never get a chance to invest in this company, for better or for worse.<blockquote>因此，我很高兴支付16倍的市盈率，这使得电子商务部门的估值为$832亿。有些人的看涨期权太高，这些人可能永远没有机会投资这家公司，无论好坏。</blockquote> Thus, with just Garena and Shopee, I have Sea being worth $106.7B. Its current market cap is $123.1B. To account for the difference, let's look at the other parts of Sea.<blockquote>因此，仅算上Garena和Shopee，我认为Sea的价值为$1067亿。其目前的市值为$123.1 B。为了解释这种差异，让我们看看海洋的其他部分。</blockquote> FinTech &amp; Investments<blockquote>金融科技与投资</blockquote> The easiest addition to my computed valuation is Sea's $12B cash pile, partially offset by $4B in debt. This adds some nice optionality to the company and ensures that it won't be bankrupt any time soon despite losing money with Shopee. Adding in the $8B cash difference puts my computed valuation at $114.7B, just $8.4B short of the actual valuation.<blockquote>我计算的估值中最容易增加的是Sea的120B美元现金储备，部分被40亿美元的债务抵消。这为该公司增加了一些不错的选择，并确保尽管Shopee亏损，但它不会很快破产。加上$8B现金差额，我的计算估值为$114.7 B，仅比实际估值低$8.4 B。</blockquote> Then there is Sea's FinTech arm, SeaMoney. The main product here is a mobile wallet, which was responsible for $4.6B in payment volume in the last quarter (~$20B over a year). This segment accounted for $132 million in Q3 revenue, up a whopping 818% year over year. This implies a \"take rate\" of 2.9%, which is even better than established FinTech companies like Visa (V). Because of this high take rate, I'm not worried about SeaMoney losing money while it scales.<blockquote>然后是Sea的金融科技部门SeaMoney。这里的主要产品是移动钱包，上个季度的支付量为46亿美元（一年约为200亿美元）。该部门第三季度收入为1.32亿美元，同比增长818%。这意味着2.9%的“采用率”，甚至比Visa(V)等老牌金融科技公司还要好。由于采用率很高，我并不担心SeaMoney在扩大规模时会亏损。</blockquote> Despite SeaMoney being a small segment, it's now reaching a point where it can be factored into the valuation. Maybe it's only worth a couple of billion, but this is just the start. Five years ago, nobody would have expected that an e-commerce platform accounting for 5% of Sea's sales would today be worth more than the gaming segment. But Sea's management - combined with Garena's ability to fund new segments and drive their viral adoption - made it happen. It's certainly not guaranteed that Sea will have the same success with FinTech, but there is precedent for it.<blockquote>尽管SeaMoney只是一个很小的细分市场，但它现在已经达到了可以纳入估值的程度。也许它只值几十亿，但这只是一个开始。五年前，没有人会想到，一个占Sea销售额5%的电子商务平台今天的价值会超过游戏领域。但Sea的管理层——加上Garena为新细分市场提供资金并推动其病毒式采用的能力——实现了这一目标。当然，不能保证Sea在金融科技方面会取得同样的成功，但这是有先例的。</blockquote> If one day this segment is worth a third or more of Sea (in 2020, FinTech accounted for 36% of MercadoLibre's revenue) then getting it for just 7% of the business today will be well worth it, even if that implies a somewhat high 16x P/S multiple for the segment today. Actually, this multiple is already lower than Visa's,&nbsp;Mastercard's (NYSE:MA), and Affirm's (NASDAQ:AFRM). Realistically, a segment growing at 818% year over year should probably get a higher multiple than these slower-growing companies', but we don't even need to speculate about what a fair multiple is, since we can reach Sea's current valuation by using 16x P/S in my model valuation.<blockquote>如果有一天这个细分市场的价值达到Sea的三分之一或更多（2020年，金融科技占MercadoLibre收入的36%），那么今天仅以7%的业务获得它将是非常值得的，即使这意味着今天该细分市场的市盈率为16倍。事实上，这个倍数已经低于Visa、Mastercard（纽约证券交易所股票代码：MA）和Affirm（纳斯达克股票代码：AFRM）。实际上，同比增长818%的细分市场可能应该比这些增长较慢的公司获得更高的市盈率，但我们甚至不需要猜测什么是公平市盈率，因为我们可以通过在我的模型估值中使用16倍市盈率来达到Sea当前的估值。</blockquote> One way this segment could grow even more is through the introduction of more products besides the mobile wallet. Sea noted in their recent earnings that they have started \"early initiatives in other digital financial services such as buy now pay later, digital bank, and insurtech.\" These guys sure know how to hop on the latest high growth trend.<blockquote>这一细分市场进一步增长的一个方法是推出除移动钱包之外的更多产品。Sea在最近的财报中指出，他们已经开始“在其他数字金融服务方面采取早期举措，例如先买后付、数字银行和保险科技”。这些人肯定知道如何抓住最新的高增长趋势。</blockquote> Finally, there's the investments arm. Sea is investing in early-stage tech companies, especially in Southeast Asia. There's strong precedent for companies like Tencent (which is itself an investor in Sea) and Shopify (NYSE:SHOP) managing successful investment portfolios that ultimately factor meaningfully into their valuation. Right now Sea's investment arm is very early stage, so I don't include it in my valuation model. But it doesn't have to be factored in to justify the current share price. It's just one more area that might be worth a large part of Sea one day.<blockquote>最后是投资部门。Sea正在投资早期科技公司，尤其是在东南亚。腾讯控股（其本身就是Sea的投资者）和Shopify（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SHOP）等公司管理成功的投资组合，最终对其估值产生有意义的影响，这是有先例的。目前Sea的投资部门还处于早期阶段，因此我没有将其纳入我的估值模型中。但不一定要考虑到这一点来证明当前股价的合理性。这只是又一个有一天可能抵得上一大部分海洋的区域。</blockquote> Conclusion<blockquote>结论</blockquote> Looking at each of Sea's segments, my valuation model indicates that Sea is fairly valued today. However, my model doesn't account for the significant optionality of the newer segments. Just like e-commerce did over the last five years, FinTech (and/or investments) could grow to become a very large part of Sea's business. With the FinTech segment currently growing at 818% year over year, it doesn't take much imagination to see how this happens. Just another year or two of growth at something close to that rate will make the FinTech arm impossible for investors to ignore.<blockquote>纵观Sea的每个细分市场，我的估值模型表明Sea目前的估值相当合理。然而，我的模型没有考虑到新细分市场的重要可选性。就像电子商务在过去五年中所做的那样，金融科技（和/或投资）可能会发展成为Sea业务的一个非常重要的部分。金融科技领域目前同比增长818%，不需要太多想象力就能看出这是如何发生的。只要再以接近这一速度增长一两年，投资者就无法忽视金融科技部门。</blockquote> This optionality combined general strength in each business has allowed Sea to post an average revenue beat of 7% over the past year. Earnings haven't been as strong, and I expect that to be the main point of contention with my valuation model, as is the case for most unprofitable companies. In particular, I expect some readers will disagree with my valuation of the e-commerce segment. But even if you drop e-commerce all the way down to 5x P/S (a multiple seen today by much slower growing e-commerce companies) that implies 54% downside from today's prices. It's a steep drop for sure, but most companies in today's market would be looking at such a decline if one were to use the most conservative valuation standards possible.<blockquote>这种选择性结合了每项业务的总体实力，使Sea在过去一年的平均收入增长了7%。盈利并没有那么强劲，我预计这将成为我的估值模型的主要争论点，就像大多数未盈利公司的情况一样。特别是，我预计一些读者会不同意我对电子商务领域的估值。但即使你将电子商务的市盈率一路降至5倍（这是当今增长缓慢得多的电子商务公司的市盈率），这也意味着比今天的价格下跌54%。这肯定是一个急剧的下跌，但如果使用最保守的估值标准，当今市场上的大多数公司都会看到这样的下跌。</blockquote> Only fast-growing companies like Sea can quickly offset such a decline with revenue growth. As a result, the businesses with the most long-term potential will hardly ever trade at the most conservative valuation possible. And Sea certainly has long-term potential. It's one of the few high-growth companies I own that I could see reaching a trillion-dollar market cap this decade.<blockquote>只有像Sea这样快速增长的公司才能用收入增长迅速抵消这种下降。因此，最具长期潜力的企业很难以最保守的估值进行交易。Sea当然具有长期潜力。这是我拥有的少数几家高增长公司之一，我认为这些公司在这十年内市值将达到万亿美元。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4476940-sea-limited-understand-the-recent-selloff\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SE":"Sea Ltd"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4476940-sea-limited-understand-the-recent-selloff","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1102262158","content_text":"Summary\n\nSea Limited is a highly diversified business firing on all cylinders in some of the fastest-growing economies in the world.\nI dive into each of its segments to understand the recent selloff and justify the current valuation.\nI consider Sea one of my ten highest conviction investments.\n\nkokkai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nThesis\nA by-parts analysis of Sea Limited's (NYSE:SE) segments shows that its current valuation is roughly fair, but there are many long-term growth drivers that could surprise to the upside and drive very strong returns for years to come.\nIntroduction\nI recently wrote an article highlighting my top 10 stock picks for 2022. I'd already done an in-depth analysis of my other nine picks in other Seeking Alpha articles, so I thought it would be good to close out the year with an article about Sea.\nFurthermore, with shares down significantly over the past couple of months (but still slightly up for the year), I believe this article may prove timely. I don't speculate on short-term market movements, but I personally added to my Sea shares recently. It's one of my only losing positions that I didn't sell out of temporarily for tax-loss harvesting, and in this article, I will explain why Sea is such a high conviction holding for me.\nIt's also worth noting that many professional investors seem to share this opinion. Sea is the 121st largest company in the world, but it's the16thmost popular holding among hedge funds. This implies that big money is overweight Sea, with 71% of shares held by institutions.\nBecause Sea operates in many different areas, I will do a separate analysis of each of its operating segments to justify its current valuation and explain how that valuation could drive unexpectedly strong returns for years.\nGaming\nSea Limited's gaming segment Garena is best known for Free Fire, a mobile battle royale game that was developed in-house.\nThe game was released in 2017 and has been very popular ever since. It currently has the second most monthly active users among all Android games globally. The game is available worldwide, but it's particularly popular in emerging markets like SEA, LATAM, and India, where it's been the highest-grossing mobile game for over two years.\nWith the game having been popular for a long time already, there's some concern that gamers will move on to the next big thing. Although there are some mobile games that are older than Free Fire and still very popular - like Roblox, Clash of Clans, and Pokemon Go - there are many more that have been forgotten. Until Garena releases more games and proves that it can be successful with them too, there will always be questions about whether its studio is a one-hit wonder.\nRegardless, Garena is a critical part of Sea because it's the only profitable segment and it doubles a social platform that provides free advertising for Sea's non-gaming products. Cross-promotion is a huge competitive advantage for Sea.\nThus, one reason for Sea's recent selloff could be the Q4 guidance implied for Garena.\nSource: Earnings Call Presentation\nIn Q2 this year, Garena raised its guidance to $4.5B-$4.7B for 2021 bookings (up from $4.3B-$4.5B). With the first three quarters already totaling $3.5B, this implies that Q4 bookings will come in at $1.0B-$1.2B, up between 0% and 20% year over year, and likely down sequentially. This is compared to 29% growth in the most recent quarter and 44% projected growth for the full year.\nWhile 20% isn't a terrible deceleration, 0% certainly is. Even 20% growth isn't spectacular compared to the historic levels. At the 10% midpoint, Garena's growth looks more similar to that of a mature company like Activision (NASDAQ:ATVI) or Zynga (NASDAQ:ZNGA) than a fast-growing company like Roblox (NYSE:RBLX).\nGarena's implied valuation should - and did - suffer as a result. While a fast-growing company like Roblox can command a high double-digit P/S multiple, Activision and Zynga trade at an average P/S multiple of just 4. Garena is slightly more profitable than them and probably has more risk to the upside, so I'll use a P/S multiple of 5 for my implied valuation. This implies a P/E of about 10 for a business growing at around 10%, which is very reasonable in today's market.\nThis means Garena is worth $23.5B based on the high end of management's guidance.\nI believe this valuation is actually conservative for a few reasons:\n\nNext year has tough comps and growth could re-accelerate in the following years or even next year, especially if Garena releases a new hit game. The growth rate past next quarter is not based on explicit guidance from the company, only industry forecasts.\nThe peer valuations I used are from companies also trading at the lower end of their valuation range for the past year.\nGarena has a good track record and is continuing to invest in Free Fire. One example of this is the recently released Free Fire MAX, which improves the experience for users with higher-end phones and even adds a metaverse-like customizable map called Craftland. To me, this implies that Garena believes Free Fire is still in the earlier part of its lifecycle.\nAlthough I'd obviously prefer that Garena develops more games in house, in the meantime it's still not a one-trick pony. In addition to Free Fire, Garena distributes games from third-party developers like Tencent (OTCMKTS:OTCPK:TCEHY). These are popular titles like League of Legends and Call of Duty, which meaningfully diversify Garena's revenue.\n\nE-Commerce\nSea's e-commerce platform Shopee is currently its big growth driver. This platform is often considered the Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) of Southeast Asia, and it recently expanded into more markets including Brazil.\nThere's always some debate about who is really the Amazon of a region. Shopee certainly has competition, including from Alibaba's (NYSE:BABA) Lazada, Tokopedia in Indonesia, MercadoLibre (MELI) in Brazil, and even Amazon itself. With most of the competition being private or tucked away into a larger company, many of the competitors don't publish exact revenue numbers, which makes it difficult to measure the competition. Even Sea hasn't published explicit revenue numbers for some countries like Brazil.\nOne neutral source that can be assessed is the Alexa site rank, which as its name suggests ranks sites by their popularity. Keep in mind that these are ranks, so a lower score is better.\nSource: The Author, compiled from Alexa\nShopee is very mobile-focused, but the above table only considers the website. To check App Store app ranks for the shopping category, we can use App Annie.\nSource: The Author, compiled from AppAnnie\nOn the mobile side, there's no need to look at the competition because Shopee is consistently the number one shopping app in every country listed. In a mobile-first world, this bodes very well. Even on the web side, Shopee wins out except in a few specific regions like LATAM and (barely) Indonesia, which have more local competitors.\nOf course, traffic doesn't always translate to GMV. But for a shopping app where most people will use the app to buy something, it's a decent proxy. A third party estimates that Shopee accounts for57%of all e-commerce in Southeast Asia. It's Shopee's dominance in the mobile app ranks and market share that make me consider it the Amazon of Southeast Asia.\nSo why would a company with so much potential sell off?\nAfter the recent earnings report, some analysts expressed concern that Shopee is branching out into other countries like Poland and Mexico before validating its business model in the current markets. In these countries, Shopee has less of a presence; it's bounced between the 3-5 spots on the Mexico App Store for shopping apps, and between spots 1 and 3 in Poland. Although analysts hate uncertainty - and the CEO's comments that they don't have a concrete measure of success in these earlier stage countries won't help with that - Shopee has a history of entering new countries successfully and I am willing to give management some time to try expanding more. After all, if they're successful, then it could drive even more unexpected growth in the future.\nAnother complaint from analysts was that the basket size (average purchase size) is trending down. While that could also have contributed to the recent selloff, it's hard to complain when the overall sales increased a lot despite a decrease in basket size.\nThe company raised its guidance for e-commerce again in Q3, now guiding for $5.0B-$5.2B in 2021 e-commerce revenue. That's 75%-100% growth in Q4 and about 135% growth for the year. These are much more exciting numbers than the gaming side, although the guidance still implies a slight deceleration in Q4. But compared to Amazon's $340B in 2020 e-commerce sales, Shopee looks like it's just scratched the surface. E-commerce is at only11%penetration in Southeast Asia compared to18.7%in the USA, and Southeast Asia economies are generally growing faster than the USA's.\nDespite being in a blue skies industry, it's more difficult to value the e-commerce segment because it operates at a loss (whereas the gaming segment is highly profitable). Shopee's success is not guaranteed because it's not clear at this point whether the platform can become profitable while retaining its market share. Stocks like this tend to experience more volatility, which could partially explain the recent selloff.\nFor unprofitable software companies, I like to use the Rule of 40 to assess the business. But it's difficult to apply this rule to a more cyclical e-commerce company with naturally lower margins. Even so, it's worth noting that despite being unprofitable, Sea's Rule of 40 score of 104 is better than most SaaS companies', and also better than e-commerce peers Amazon (21), MercadoLibre (73), and Alibaba (43).\nTo understand Shopee's terminal valuation once it becomes profitable, we can look at industry peers. Amazon is one profitable and slower-growing peer, and it trades at 4x P/S. AWS pushes this number up, but Amazon's high exposure to first-party sales offsets that. Other e-commerce marketplace peers trade at similar valuations: Alibaba at 3x P/S, MercadoLibre at 9x P/S. All of these valuations are basically all-time lows.\nIf Shopee keeps doubling revenue over the next couple of years (which it's easily done every year since 2016), becomes profitable (which scaling up tends to help with), and will have Amazon's P/S multiple in two years, then at 16 P/S today it would trade flat for two years. But if it keeps growing much faster than Amazon over a longer period like a decade, and/or if the overall industry multiples expand to more normal historical levels, then even at 16x P/S this segment has potential upside. On the other hand, if it stops growing or never becomes profitable then investors will be very disappointed at any P/S.\nGiven this wide range of outcomes, each person is going to have their own way of valuing this segment. For me, when I look at Shopee's mobile dominance, relatively small current size, the funding coming in from Garena, and the precedent set by Amazon, Alibaba, and MercadoLibre for the sustainable long-term success of this business model, I am optimistic about this segment's future. I recognize that it's currently an unprofitable and thus risky segment, but I also see the massive potential.\nSo I am happy paying a 16x P/S multiple, which values the e-commerce segment at $83.2B. Some people will call that way too high, and those people will probably never get a chance to invest in this company, for better or for worse.\nThus, with just Garena and Shopee, I have Sea being worth $106.7B. Its current market cap is $123.1B. To account for the difference, let's look at the other parts of Sea.\nFinTech & Investments\nThe easiest addition to my computed valuation is Sea's $12B cash pile, partially offset by $4B in debt. This adds some nice optionality to the company and ensures that it won't be bankrupt any time soon despite losing money with Shopee. Adding in the $8B cash difference puts my computed valuation at $114.7B, just $8.4B short of the actual valuation.\nThen there is Sea's FinTech arm, SeaMoney. The main product here is a mobile wallet, which was responsible for $4.6B in payment volume in the last quarter (~$20B over a year). This segment accounted for $132 million in Q3 revenue, up a whopping 818% year over year. This implies a \"take rate\" of 2.9%, which is even better than established FinTech companies like Visa (V). Because of this high take rate, I'm not worried about SeaMoney losing money while it scales.\nDespite SeaMoney being a small segment, it's now reaching a point where it can be factored into the valuation. Maybe it's only worth a couple of billion, but this is just the start. Five years ago, nobody would have expected that an e-commerce platform accounting for 5% of Sea's sales would today be worth more than the gaming segment. But Sea's management - combined with Garena's ability to fund new segments and drive their viral adoption - made it happen. It's certainly not guaranteed that Sea will have the same success with FinTech, but there is precedent for it.\nIf one day this segment is worth a third or more of Sea (in 2020, FinTech accounted for 36% of MercadoLibre's revenue) then getting it for just 7% of the business today will be well worth it, even if that implies a somewhat high 16x P/S multiple for the segment today. Actually, this multiple is already lower than Visa's, Mastercard's (NYSE:MA), and Affirm's (NASDAQ:AFRM). Realistically, a segment growing at 818% year over year should probably get a higher multiple than these slower-growing companies', but we don't even need to speculate about what a fair multiple is, since we can reach Sea's current valuation by using 16x P/S in my model valuation.\nOne way this segment could grow even more is through the introduction of more products besides the mobile wallet. Sea noted in their recent earnings that they have started \"early initiatives in other digital financial services such as buy now pay later, digital bank, and insurtech.\" These guys sure know how to hop on the latest high growth trend.\nFinally, there's the investments arm. Sea is investing in early-stage tech companies, especially in Southeast Asia. There's strong precedent for companies like Tencent (which is itself an investor in Sea) and Shopify (NYSE:SHOP) managing successful investment portfolios that ultimately factor meaningfully into their valuation. Right now Sea's investment arm is very early stage, so I don't include it in my valuation model. But it doesn't have to be factored in to justify the current share price. It's just one more area that might be worth a large part of Sea one day.\nConclusion\nLooking at each of Sea's segments, my valuation model indicates that Sea is fairly valued today. However, my model doesn't account for the significant optionality of the newer segments. Just like e-commerce did over the last five years, FinTech (and/or investments) could grow to become a very large part of Sea's business. With the FinTech segment currently growing at 818% year over year, it doesn't take much imagination to see how this happens. Just another year or two of growth at something close to that rate will make the FinTech arm impossible for investors to ignore.\nThis optionality combined general strength in each business has allowed Sea to post an average revenue beat of 7% over the past year. Earnings haven't been as strong, and I expect that to be the main point of contention with my valuation model, as is the case for most unprofitable companies. In particular, I expect some readers will disagree with my valuation of the e-commerce segment. But even if you drop e-commerce all the way down to 5x P/S (a multiple seen today by much slower growing e-commerce companies) that implies 54% downside from today's prices. It's a steep drop for sure, but most companies in today's market would be looking at such a decline if one were to use the most conservative valuation standards possible.\nOnly fast-growing companies like Sea can quickly offset such a decline with revenue growth. As a result, the businesses with the most long-term potential will hardly ever trade at the most conservative valuation possible. And Sea certainly has long-term potential. It's one of the few high-growth companies I own that I could see reaching a trillion-dollar market cap this decade.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1593,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":52,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}