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2022-01-10

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Is Tesla Stock Headed to $1,400 or $67? Why Predicting Auto Makers’ Performance Is Tricky<blockquote>特斯拉股价将达到 1,400 美元还是 67 美元？为什么预测汽车制造商的业绩很棘手</blockquote>

Who needs parody cryptocurrency when car stocks are this exciting?

Is Tesla Stock Headed to $1,400 or $67? Why Predicting Auto Makers’ Performance Is Tricky<blockquote>特斯拉股价将达到 1,400 美元还是 67 美元？为什么预测汽车制造商的业绩很棘手</blockquote>

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Why Predicting Auto Makers’ Performance Is Tricky<blockquote>特斯拉股价将达到 1,400 美元还是 67 美元？为什么预测汽车制造商的业绩很棘手</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199490797","media":"Barrons","summary":"Who needs parody cryptocurrency when car stocks are this exciting?","content":"<html><head></head><body>Who needs parody cryptocurrency when car stocks are this exciting? Ford Motor, General Motors, Tesla, and Rivian Automotive each had price swings of more than 10% during the first trading week of the year. This, after some heady gains for the group last year.<blockquote><html><head></head><body>当汽车股如此令人兴奋时，谁还需要模仿加密货币？福特汽车公司、通用汽车公司、特斯拉公司和Rivian公司在今年第一个交易周的价格波动均超过 10%。这是在该集团去年取得一些令人兴奋的收益之后。</body></html></blockquote>Predicting performance from here won’t be easy. I recently spoke with one analyst who says Tesla stock (ticker: TSLA) is headed to $1,400, and another who says $67. You know what they say: Sometimes you have to agree to disagree by a factor of 20.<blockquote>从这里预测性能并不容易。我最近与一位分析师交谈过，他表示特斯拉股票（股票代码：TSLA）将达到 1,400 美元，另一位分析师表示将达到 67 美元。你知道他们说什么：有时候你必须同意20倍的不同意见。</blockquote>Tesla made the first big move, jumping 13.5% on Monday after the company reported fourth-quarter deliveries of 308,600 vehicles, trouncing estimates and its own record. Next, Ford (F) gained 11.7% on Tuesday after it announced that it would raise production of its first electric pickup, the F-150 Lightning, to 150,000 units a year.<blockquote>特斯拉公布第四季度交付量为 308,600 辆，超出预期和自身纪录，周一股价上涨 13.5%。接下来，福特 (F) 周二上涨 11.7%，此前该公司宣布将其首款电动皮卡 F-150 Lightning 的产量提高到每年 15 万辆。</blockquote>By that point in the week, General Motors stock (GM) was already up 12% in anticipation of its Chevy Silverado electric pickup truck unveiling, planned for Wednesday at the Consumer Electronics Show. But on the day of the announcement, shares slipped. Maybe investors were disappointed in the delivery timing, or maybe it was because the broad market tanked on signs that interest rates could rise sooner than expected.<blockquote>本周那个时候，通用汽车 (GM) 的股价已经上涨了 12%，预计其雪佛兰索罗德电动皮卡车将于周三在消费电子展上亮相。但在公告发布当天，股价下跌。也许投资者对交割时间感到失望，或者也许是因为大盘因利率可能比预期更早上升的迹象而下跌。</blockquote>What the Ford and Chevy pickups have in common is that they will target workers as well as suburban preeners in unblemished Carhartt jackets. Early versions will be priced around $40,000 and $100,000.<blockquote>福特和雪佛兰皮卡的共同点是，它们将瞄准穿着完美无瑕的卡哈特夹克的工人和郊区创业者。早期版本的价格将在4万美元和10万美元左右。</blockquote>The Chevy wins on electric specs—longer battery range and faster charging. But Ford wins on bringing its truck to market this spring. Chevy buyers will have to wait until spring 2023 for the cheaper truck and fall 2023 for the decked-out one. GM will also debut electric Chevy sport utility vehicles in 2023, including an Equinox that will start at $30,000.<blockquote>雪佛兰在电动规格上获胜——更长的电池续航里程和更快的充电速度。但福特在今年春天将其卡车推向市场方面取得了胜利。雪佛兰买家必须等到 2023 年春季才能买到更便宜的卡车，2023 年秋季才能买到装饰精美的卡车。通用汽车还将于 2023 年推出电动雪佛兰运动型多功能车，其中包括起售价为 30,000 美元的 Equinox。</blockquote>Pickup trucks could be the key to America’s electric-vehicle uptake. Last year, EVs hit an estimated 4% of total U.S. sales, up from 2%. But Europe and China are well ahead, with penetration rates in the low teens. Americans have so far had few electric choices for the types of vehicles they like to buy. Last year, the Ford F-150 led U.S. new-vehicle sales, as always. The only surprise was that the Ram 1500 pickup pulled ahead of the Chevy Silverado 1500 to be No. 2.<blockquote>皮卡车可能是美国电动汽车普及的关键。去年，电动汽车估计占美国总销量的 4%，高于 2%。但欧洲和中国遥遥领先，渗透率仅为十几岁。到目前为止，美国人对于他们喜欢购买的车辆类型几乎没有电动选择。去年，福特 F-150 一如既往地引领美国新车销量。唯一令人惊讶的是，Ram 1500 皮卡领先于雪佛兰索罗德 1500，位居第二。</blockquote>An electric Ram will take until 2024, according to owner Stellantis (STLA), a roll-up of American, Italian, and French brands. Start-up Rivian (RIVN) says it will ship electric pickups this year, but that stock slid 11% this past Wednesday after early backer Amazon.com (AMZN) said it’s putting in an order with Ram for delivery trucks. Tesla’s Cybertruck was expected last year, but has been delayed.<blockquote>据所有者 Stellantis (STLA) 称，电动 Ram 要到 2024 年才会问世，该公司是美国、意大利和法国品牌的综合体。初创公司Rivian（RIVN）表示，今年将出货电动皮卡，但上周三，在早期支持者亚马逊（AMZN）表示将向 Ram 订购送货卡车后，该公司股价下跌了 11%。特斯拉的 Cybertruck 去年就已上市，但已被推迟。</blockquote>Pent-up vehicle demand, meanwhile, suggests that a boom is coming. Amid shortages last year, U.S. light-vehicle sales were an estimated 15.1 million units, versus closer to 17 million a year before the pandemic. Average transaction prices have soared 30% from prepandemic levels, and incentives as a percentage of prices are at record lows.<blockquote>与此同时，被压抑的汽车需求表明繁荣即将到来。由于去年出现短缺，美国轻型汽车销量估计为 1510 万辆，而疫情爆发前每年接近 1700 万辆。平均交易价格已比大流行前的水平飙升了 30%，激励措施占价格的百分比也处于历史低位。</blockquote>This year, expect unit sales to rise only modestly, but by next year, when showrooms are full and pricing has eased, units could jump to 18 million, Credit Suisse says. EV penetration in the U.S. will double again this year to 8%, and top 50% by 2030, it adds.<blockquote>瑞士信贷表示，今年预计销量只会小幅增长，但到明年，当展厅爆满且定价放缓时，销量可能会跃升至 1800 万辆。它补充说，美国的电动汽车渗透率今年将再次翻一番，达到 8%，到 2030 年将达到 50%。</blockquote>One risk for legacy car makers is that they will run to stand still—that they must ramp up EV units with low profit margins for now to offset coming losses in high-margin gasoline models.<blockquote>传统汽车制造商面临的一个风险是，他们将停滞不前——他们目前必须增加利润率较低的电动汽车，以抵消高利润率汽油车型即将出现的损失。</blockquote>On the other hand, car makers could shift capacity from gasoline vehicles to electric ones ahead of customers’ willingness to make the switch. That could leave gas vehicles with high prices and profit margins, creating a long, lucrative “farewell tour,” as Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas puts it.<blockquote>另一方面，汽车制造商可以在客户愿意转向电动汽车之前，将产能从汽油车转移到电动汽车。正如摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）分析师亚当-乔纳斯（Adam Jonas）所说，这可能会使汽油车的价格和利润率居高不下，从而造成一段漫长而利润丰厚的 “告别之旅”。</blockquote>Valuations appear undemanding. Ford goes for 12 times projected earnings, despite doubling in price last year. GM sells for nine times.<blockquote>估值似乎要求不高。尽管去年的价格翻了一番，但福特的盈利仍是预期的 12 倍。通用汽车的销量是原来的九倍。</blockquote>The bull case on Tesla is that it will do big things in both cars and adjacent markets. Philippe Houchois, who covers the stock for Jefferies, sees 35% upside from recent levels, to $1,400. Tesla lags behind legacy rivals on things like build quality and finish, but those are solvable problems, he says. It leads on software, batteries, and autonomy, which are durable advantages. He sees Tesla using software to extend the usefulness and profit potential of vehicles.<blockquote>特斯拉的看涨理由是，它将在汽车和邻近市场大展身手。杰富瑞 (Jefferies) 负责该股的 Philippe Houchois 认为，该股较近期水平上涨 35%，至 1,400 美元。他说，特斯拉在制造质量和表面处理等方面落后于传统竞争对手，但这些都是可以解决的问题。它在软件、电池和自主性方面处于领先地位，这些都是持久的优势。他认为特斯拉正在利用软件来扩展车辆的实用性和利润潜力。</blockquote>Most versions of the Tesla bear case assume that the company will do well in cars, but not well enough to justify a market value above $1 trillion. For example, J.P. Morgan’s Ryan Brinkman calls his price target of $295 “not ungenerous,” even though it implies a 70% stock plunge, because it values Tesla slightly ahead of world leader Toyota Motor (TM), despite producing a tenth as many cars for now.<blockquote>大多数版本的特斯拉贝尔案例都假设该公司在汽车领域会表现出色，但还不足以证明其超过 1 万亿美元的市值是合理的。例如，摩根大通（J.P. Morgan）的 Ryan Brinkman 评级，他将 295 美元的目标价定为 “并不慷慨”，尽管这意味着股价将暴跌 70%，因为特斯拉的估值略高于世界领先的丰田汽车（TM），尽管丰田汽车目前的产量只有丰田汽车的十分之一。</blockquote>Then there’s Gordon Johnson. He worked at large investment banks before starting GLJ Research, where he covers 20 stocks. He’s bullish on uranium stocks and bearish on cannabis, but all anyone wants to talk about, he says, is his $67 price target on Tesla. “I’ve gotten death threats,” he says. “Now I don’t even answer the phone when I have unknown calls.”<blockquote>然后是戈登-约翰逊。在开始 GLJ Research 之前，他曾在大型投资银行工作，在那里他研究了 20 只股票。他看好铀股，看跌大麻，但他说，大家只想谈论他对特斯拉的 67 美元目标价。“他说：”我收到了死亡威胁。“现在，当我有未知评级时，我甚至不接电话。”</blockquote>In Johnson’s view, there’s no reason to assume Tesla will do well in adjacent businesses. “You could take McDonald’s and say they’re going to start selling Nikes and chairs and pianos and add those valuations,” he says. In cars, he calculates that the stock price implies a production ramp-up that no car maker could achieve. “Selling cars is not selling iPhones or shirts,” he says.<blockquote>在约翰逊看来，没有理由认为特斯拉会在邻近业务中表现出色。“他说：”你可以拿麦当劳来说，他们将开始销售耐克鞋、椅子和钢琴，然后增加这些估值。在汽车方面，他计算出股价意味着任何汽车制造商都无法实现的产量增长。“他说：”卖车不是卖 iPhone 或衬衫。</blockquote>If Tesla’s three-year stock gain of nearly 1,400% has shaken Johnson’s confidence, it doesn’t show. After walking me through his valuation model, he said he’s concerned that his price target might be too high.<blockquote>如果说特斯拉三年内近 1400% 的股价涨幅动摇了约翰逊的信心，那么约翰逊的信心并没有显现出来。在向我介绍了他的估值模型后，他说他担心他的目标价可能太高。</blockquote></body></html><blockquote></blockquote>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Tesla Stock Headed to $1,400 or $67? Why Predicting Auto Makers’ Performance Is Tricky<blockquote>特斯拉股价将达到 1,400 美元还是 67 美元？为什么预测汽车制造商的业绩很棘手</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Tesla Stock Headed to $1,400 or $67? Why Predicting Auto Makers’ Performance Is Tricky<blockquote>特斯拉股价将达到 1,400 美元还是 67 美元？为什么预测汽车制造商的业绩很棘手</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarrons2022-01-10 23:32\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body>Who needs parody cryptocurrency when car stocks are this exciting? Ford Motor, General Motors, Tesla, and Rivian Automotive each had price swings of more than 10% during the first trading week of the year. This, after some heady gains for the group last year.<blockquote><html><head></head><body>当汽车股如此令人兴奋时，谁还需要模仿加密货币？福特汽车公司、通用汽车公司、特斯拉公司和Rivian公司在今年第一个交易周的价格波动均超过 10%。这是在该集团去年取得一些令人兴奋的收益之后。</body></html></blockquote>Predicting performance from here won’t be easy. I recently spoke with one analyst who says Tesla stock (ticker: TSLA) is headed to $1,400, and another who says $67. You know what they say: Sometimes you have to agree to disagree by a factor of 20.<blockquote>从这里预测性能并不容易。我最近与一位分析师交谈过，他表示特斯拉股票（股票代码：TSLA）将达到 1,400 美元，另一位分析师表示将达到 67 美元。你知道他们说什么：有时候你必须同意20倍的不同意见。</blockquote>Tesla made the first big move, jumping 13.5% on Monday after the company reported fourth-quarter deliveries of 308,600 vehicles, trouncing estimates and its own record. Next, Ford (F) gained 11.7% on Tuesday after it announced that it would raise production of its first electric pickup, the F-150 Lightning, to 150,000 units a year.<blockquote>特斯拉公布第四季度交付量为 308,600 辆，超出预期和自身纪录，周一股价上涨 13.5%。接下来，福特 (F) 周二上涨 11.7%，此前该公司宣布将其首款电动皮卡 F-150 Lightning 的产量提高到每年 15 万辆。</blockquote>By that point in the week, General Motors stock (GM) was already up 12% in anticipation of its Chevy Silverado electric pickup truck unveiling, planned for Wednesday at the Consumer Electronics Show. But on the day of the announcement, shares slipped. Maybe investors were disappointed in the delivery timing, or maybe it was because the broad market tanked on signs that interest rates could rise sooner than expected.<blockquote>本周那个时候，通用汽车 (GM) 的股价已经上涨了 12%，预计其雪佛兰索罗德电动皮卡车将于周三在消费电子展上亮相。但在公告发布当天，股价下跌。也许投资者对交割时间感到失望，或者也许是因为大盘因利率可能比预期更早上升的迹象而下跌。</blockquote>What the Ford and Chevy pickups have in common is that they will target workers as well as suburban preeners in unblemished Carhartt jackets. Early versions will be priced around $40,000 and $100,000.<blockquote>福特和雪佛兰皮卡的共同点是，它们将瞄准穿着完美无瑕的卡哈特夹克的工人和郊区创业者。早期版本的价格将在4万美元和10万美元左右。</blockquote>The Chevy wins on electric specs—longer battery range and faster charging. But Ford wins on bringing its truck to market this spring. Chevy buyers will have to wait until spring 2023 for the cheaper truck and fall 2023 for the decked-out one. GM will also debut electric Chevy sport utility vehicles in 2023, including an Equinox that will start at $30,000.<blockquote>雪佛兰在电动规格上获胜——更长的电池续航里程和更快的充电速度。但福特在今年春天将其卡车推向市场方面取得了胜利。雪佛兰买家必须等到 2023 年春季才能买到更便宜的卡车，2023 年秋季才能买到装饰精美的卡车。通用汽车还将于 2023 年推出电动雪佛兰运动型多功能车，其中包括起售价为 30,000 美元的 Equinox。</blockquote>Pickup trucks could be the key to America’s electric-vehicle uptake. Last year, EVs hit an estimated 4% of total U.S. sales, up from 2%. But Europe and China are well ahead, with penetration rates in the low teens. Americans have so far had few electric choices for the types of vehicles they like to buy. Last year, the Ford F-150 led U.S. new-vehicle sales, as always. The only surprise was that the Ram 1500 pickup pulled ahead of the Chevy Silverado 1500 to be No. 2.<blockquote>皮卡车可能是美国电动汽车普及的关键。去年，电动汽车估计占美国总销量的 4%，高于 2%。但欧洲和中国遥遥领先，渗透率仅为十几岁。到目前为止，美国人对于他们喜欢购买的车辆类型几乎没有电动选择。去年，福特 F-150 一如既往地引领美国新车销量。唯一令人惊讶的是，Ram 1500 皮卡领先于雪佛兰索罗德 1500，位居第二。</blockquote>An electric Ram will take until 2024, according to owner Stellantis (STLA), a roll-up of American, Italian, and French brands. Start-up Rivian (RIVN) says it will ship electric pickups this year, but that stock slid 11% this past Wednesday after early backer Amazon.com (AMZN) said it’s putting in an order with Ram for delivery trucks. Tesla’s Cybertruck was expected last year, but has been delayed.<blockquote>据所有者 Stellantis (STLA) 称，电动 Ram 要到 2024 年才会问世，该公司是美国、意大利和法国品牌的综合体。初创公司Rivian（RIVN）表示，今年将出货电动皮卡，但上周三，在早期支持者亚马逊（AMZN）表示将向 Ram 订购送货卡车后，该公司股价下跌了 11%。特斯拉的 Cybertruck 去年就已上市，但已被推迟。</blockquote>Pent-up vehicle demand, meanwhile, suggests that a boom is coming. Amid shortages last year, U.S. light-vehicle sales were an estimated 15.1 million units, versus closer to 17 million a year before the pandemic. Average transaction prices have soared 30% from prepandemic levels, and incentives as a percentage of prices are at record lows.<blockquote>与此同时，被压抑的汽车需求表明繁荣即将到来。由于去年出现短缺，美国轻型汽车销量估计为 1510 万辆，而疫情爆发前每年接近 1700 万辆。平均交易价格已比大流行前的水平飙升了 30%，激励措施占价格的百分比也处于历史低位。</blockquote>This year, expect unit sales to rise only modestly, but by next year, when showrooms are full and pricing has eased, units could jump to 18 million, Credit Suisse says. EV penetration in the U.S. will double again this year to 8%, and top 50% by 2030, it adds.<blockquote>瑞士信贷表示，今年预计销量只会小幅增长，但到明年，当展厅爆满且定价放缓时，销量可能会跃升至 1800 万辆。它补充说，美国的电动汽车渗透率今年将再次翻一番，达到 8%，到 2030 年将达到 50%。</blockquote>One risk for legacy car makers is that they will run to stand still—that they must ramp up EV units with low profit margins for now to offset coming losses in high-margin gasoline models.<blockquote>传统汽车制造商面临的一个风险是，他们将停滞不前——他们目前必须增加利润率较低的电动汽车，以抵消高利润率汽油车型即将出现的损失。</blockquote>On the other hand, car makers could shift capacity from gasoline vehicles to electric ones ahead of customers’ willingness to make the switch. That could leave gas vehicles with high prices and profit margins, creating a long, lucrative “farewell tour,” as Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas puts it.<blockquote>另一方面，汽车制造商可以在客户愿意转向电动汽车之前，将产能从汽油车转移到电动汽车。正如摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）分析师亚当-乔纳斯（Adam Jonas）所说，这可能会使汽油车的价格和利润率居高不下，从而造成一段漫长而利润丰厚的 “告别之旅”。</blockquote>Valuations appear undemanding. Ford goes for 12 times projected earnings, despite doubling in price last year. GM sells for nine times.<blockquote>估值似乎要求不高。尽管去年的价格翻了一番，但福特的盈利仍是预期的 12 倍。通用汽车的销量是原来的九倍。</blockquote>The bull case on Tesla is that it will do big things in both cars and adjacent markets. Philippe Houchois, who covers the stock for Jefferies, sees 35% upside from recent levels, to $1,400. Tesla lags behind legacy rivals on things like build quality and finish, but those are solvable problems, he says. It leads on software, batteries, and autonomy, which are durable advantages. He sees Tesla using software to extend the usefulness and profit potential of vehicles.<blockquote>特斯拉的看涨理由是，它将在汽车和邻近市场大展身手。杰富瑞 (Jefferies) 负责该股的 Philippe Houchois 认为，该股较近期水平上涨 35%，至 1,400 美元。他说，特斯拉在制造质量和表面处理等方面落后于传统竞争对手，但这些都是可以解决的问题。它在软件、电池和自主性方面处于领先地位，这些都是持久的优势。他认为特斯拉正在利用软件来扩展车辆的实用性和利润潜力。</blockquote>Most versions of the Tesla bear case assume that the company will do well in cars, but not well enough to justify a market value above $1 trillion. For example, J.P. Morgan’s Ryan Brinkman calls his price target of $295 “not ungenerous,” even though it implies a 70% stock plunge, because it values Tesla slightly ahead of world leader Toyota Motor (TM), despite producing a tenth as many cars for now.<blockquote>大多数版本的特斯拉贝尔案例都假设该公司在汽车领域会表现出色，但还不足以证明其超过 1 万亿美元的市值是合理的。例如，摩根大通（J.P. Morgan）的 Ryan Brinkman 评级，他将 295 美元的目标价定为 “并不慷慨”，尽管这意味着股价将暴跌 70%，因为特斯拉的估值略高于世界领先的丰田汽车（TM），尽管丰田汽车目前的产量只有丰田汽车的十分之一。</blockquote>Then there’s Gordon Johnson. He worked at large investment banks before starting GLJ Research, where he covers 20 stocks. He’s bullish on uranium stocks and bearish on cannabis, but all anyone wants to talk about, he says, is his $67 price target on Tesla. “I’ve gotten death threats,” he says. “Now I don’t even answer the phone when I have unknown calls.”<blockquote>然后是戈登-约翰逊。在开始 GLJ Research 之前，他曾在大型投资银行工作，在那里他研究了 20 只股票。他看好铀股，看跌大麻，但他说，大家只想谈论他对特斯拉的 67 美元目标价。“他说：”我收到了死亡威胁。“现在，当我有未知评级时，我甚至不接电话。”</blockquote>In Johnson’s view, there’s no reason to assume Tesla will do well in adjacent businesses. “You could take McDonald’s and say they’re going to start selling Nikes and chairs and pianos and add those valuations,” he says. In cars, he calculates that the stock price implies a production ramp-up that no car maker could achieve. “Selling cars is not selling iPhones or shirts,” he says.<blockquote>在约翰逊看来，没有理由认为特斯拉会在邻近业务中表现出色。“他说：”你可以拿麦当劳来说，他们将开始销售耐克鞋、椅子和钢琴，然后增加这些估值。在汽车方面，他计算出股价意味着任何汽车制造商都无法实现的产量增长。“他说：”卖车不是卖 iPhone 或衬衫。</blockquote>If Tesla’s three-year stock gain of nearly 1,400% has shaken Johnson’s confidence, it doesn’t show. After walking me through his valuation model, he said he’s concerned that his price target might be too high.<blockquote>如果说特斯拉三年内近 1400% 的股价涨幅动摇了约翰逊的信心，那么约翰逊的信心并没有显现出来。在向我介绍了他的估值模型后，他说他担心他的目标价可能太高。</blockquote></body></html><blockquote></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/tesla-ford-rivian-gm-stock-51641597012?mod=mw_quote_news\">Barrons</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"RIVN":"Rivian Automotive, Inc.","TSLA":"特斯拉","GM":"通用汽车","F":"福特汽车"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/tesla-ford-rivian-gm-stock-51641597012?mod=mw_quote_news","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1199490797","content_text":"Who needs parody cryptocurrency when car stocks are this exciting? Ford Motor, General Motors, Tesla, and Rivian Automotive each had price swings of more than 10% during the first trading week of the year. This, after some heady gains for the group last year.Predicting performance from here won’t be easy. I recently spoke with one analyst who says Tesla stock (ticker: TSLA) is headed to $1,400, and another who says $67. You know what they say: Sometimes you have to agree to disagree by a factor of 20.Tesla made the first big move, jumping 13.5% on Monday after the company reported fourth-quarter deliveries of 308,600 vehicles, trouncing estimates and its own record. Next, Ford (F) gained 11.7% on Tuesday after it announced that it would raise production of its first electric pickup, the F-150 Lightning, to 150,000 units a year.By that point in the week, General Motors stock (GM) was already up 12% in anticipation of its Chevy Silverado electric pickup truck unveiling, planned for Wednesday at the Consumer Electronics Show. But on the day of the announcement, shares slipped. Maybe investors were disappointed in the delivery timing, or maybe it was because the broad market tanked on signs that interest rates could rise sooner than expected.What the Ford and Chevy pickups have in common is that they will target workers as well as suburban preeners in unblemished Carhartt jackets. Early versions will be priced around $40,000 and $100,000.The Chevy wins on electric specs—longer battery range and faster charging. But Ford wins on bringing its truck to market this spring. Chevy buyers will have to wait until spring 2023 for the cheaper truck and fall 2023 for the decked-out one. GM will also debut electric Chevy sport utility vehicles in 2023, including an Equinox that will start at $30,000.Pickup trucks could be the key to America’s electric-vehicle uptake. Last year, EVs hit an estimated 4% of total U.S. sales, up from 2%. But Europe and China are well ahead, with penetration rates in the low teens. Americans have so far had few electric choices for the types of vehicles they like to buy. Last year, the Ford F-150 led U.S. new-vehicle sales, as always. The only surprise was that the Ram 1500 pickup pulled ahead of the Chevy Silverado 1500 to be No. 2.An electric Ram will take until 2024, according to owner Stellantis (STLA), a roll-up of American, Italian, and French brands. Start-up Rivian (RIVN) says it will ship electric pickups this year, but that stock slid 11% this past Wednesday after early backer Amazon.com (AMZN) said it’s putting in an order with Ram for delivery trucks. Tesla’s Cybertruck was expected last year, but has been delayed.Pent-up vehicle demand, meanwhile, suggests that a boom is coming. Amid shortages last year, U.S. light-vehicle sales were an estimated 15.1 million units, versus closer to 17 million a year before the pandemic. Average transaction prices have soared 30% from prepandemic levels, and incentives as a percentage of prices are at record lows.This year, expect unit sales to rise only modestly, but by next year, when showrooms are full and pricing has eased, units could jump to 18 million, Credit Suisse says. EV penetration in the U.S. will double again this year to 8%, and top 50% by 2030, it adds.One risk for legacy car makers is that they will run to stand still—that they must ramp up EV units with low profit margins for now to offset coming losses in high-margin gasoline models.On the other hand, car makers could shift capacity from gasoline vehicles to electric ones ahead of customers’ willingness to make the switch. That could leave gas vehicles with high prices and profit margins, creating a long, lucrative “farewell tour,” as Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas puts it.Valuations appear undemanding. Ford goes for 12 times projected earnings, despite doubling in price last year. GM sells for nine times.The bull case on Tesla is that it will do big things in both cars and adjacent markets. Philippe Houchois, who covers the stock for Jefferies, sees 35% upside from recent levels, to $1,400. Tesla lags behind legacy rivals on things like build quality and finish, but those are solvable problems, he says. It leads on software, batteries, and autonomy, which are durable advantages. He sees Tesla using software to extend the usefulness and profit potential of vehicles.Most versions of the Tesla bear case assume that the company will do well in cars, but not well enough to justify a market value above $1 trillion. For example, J.P. Morgan’s Ryan Brinkman calls his price target of $295 “not ungenerous,” even though it implies a 70% stock plunge, because it values Tesla slightly ahead of world leader Toyota Motor (TM), despite producing a tenth as many cars for now.Then there’s Gordon Johnson. He worked at large investment banks before starting GLJ Research, where he covers 20 stocks. He’s bullish on uranium stocks and bearish on cannabis, but all anyone wants to talk about, he says, is his $67 price target on Tesla. “I’ve gotten death threats,” he says. “Now I don’t even answer the phone when I have unknown calls.”In Johnson’s view, there’s no reason to assume Tesla will do well in adjacent businesses. “You could take McDonald’s and say they’re going to start selling Nikes and chairs and pianos and add those valuations,” he says. In cars, he calculates that the stock price implies a production ramp-up that no car maker could achieve. “Selling cars is not selling iPhones or shirts,” he says.If Tesla’s three-year stock gain of nearly 1,400% has shaken Johnson’s confidence, it doesn’t show. After walking me through his valuation model, he said he’s concerned that his price target might be too high.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"RIVN":0.9,"F":0.9,"GM":0.9,"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5551,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":5,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}

Is Tesla Stock Headed to $1,400 or $67? Why Predicting Auto Makers’ Performance Is Tricky<blockquote>特斯拉股价将达到 1,400 美元还是 67 美元？为什么预测汽车制造商的业绩很棘手</blockquote>

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