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2021-12-30

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Apple: The Real Player In Autonomous Vehicles<blockquote>苹果：自动驾驶汽车的真正参与者</blockquote>

SummaryApple has now officially been working on autonomous vehicle technology and they have a specia

Apple: The Real Player In Autonomous Vehicles<blockquote>苹果：自动驾驶汽车的真正参与者</blockquote>

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Leveraging this will provide them the opportunity to quickly scale up - whether they end up releasing just the tech for autonomous driving or their own car, independently or in partnership with auto manufacturers.<blockquote>但鉴于iPhone、iPad和MacBook等设备的卓越互连性，苹果现在有能力利用其数亿忠实用户快速增加任何潜在技术的使用。利用这一点将为他们提供快速扩大规模的机会——无论他们最终只发布自动驾驶技术还是自己的汽车，无论是独立还是与汽车制造商合作。</blockquote>As a result, even though I&#39;ve been slightly bearish on Apple&#39;s near-term prospects due to valuation concerns as well as what I predict will be a slower upgrade cycle, the company&#39;s long term prospects, on which I am bullish, are heavily reliant on new tech such as this one hitting the market somewhere between 2025 and 2030 in order to aid the company&#39;s long term growth.<blockquote>因此，尽管由于估值担忧以及我预测升级周期将放缓，我对苹果的近期前景略有悲观，但我看好的该公司的长期前景严重依赖于像这样的新技术将在2025年至2030年间上市，以帮助公司的长期增长。</blockquote>Tesla Advantage Breeds Apple Opportunity<blockquote>特斯拉优势孕育苹果机遇</blockquote>For the sake of this argument, let&#39;s say that tomorrow morning we all wake up and the federal government and regulators have fully approved self-driving, or autonomous, driving technologies. What that means is that virtually all the vehicles on the road today, with several exceptions, won&#39;t be immediately equipped to handle that tech but Tesla vehicles will. So the real question is how fast can any given company ramp up production of self-driving tech adaptable vehicles and how fast can they deploy them.<blockquote>为了这个论点，让我们假设明天早上我们都醒来，联邦政府和监管机构已经完全批准了自动驾驶技术。这意味着，除了少数例外，当今道路上几乎所有的车辆都不会立即配备处理该技术的设备，但特斯拉汽车会。因此，真正的问题是，任何一家公司能以多快的速度提高自动驾驶技术适应性车辆的产量，以及他们能以多快的速度部署它们。</blockquote>For the first several months, there&#39;s no doubt that Tesla will have a monopoly on this market based on the sheer number of vehicles they have on the road right now with those capabilities but the real question becomes who will be able to deploy this tech to capable vehicles the fastest. My answer is Apple.<blockquote>在最初的几个月里，毫无疑问，根据目前道路上拥有这些功能的车辆数量，特斯拉将垄断这个市场，但真正的问题是谁将能够将这项技术部署到有能力的车辆最快。我的答案是苹果。</blockquote>Apple, as we&#39;ve seen over the past few years, has a strong and large global base of loyal customers who like their products and enjoy their interconnectivity. This means that if one of them owns an iPhone and a MacBook, chances are that they&#39;ll get smart home devices made or adaptable by Apple - driving what I believe will be a big growth avenue for them in the IoT (internet of things) space.<blockquote>正如我们在过去几年中看到的那样，苹果拥有强大而庞大的全球忠实客户群，他们喜欢他们的产品并享受他们的互联性。这意味着，如果他们中的一个人拥有iPhone和MacBook，他们很可能会获得由苹果制造或改编的智能家居设备——我相信这将是他们在IoT（物联网）领域的一个巨大增长途径。</blockquote>The same will happen with autonomous vehicle tech. Apple currently has ambitions to deploy a fully autonomous all-electric vehicle in 4 years, by 2025. This means that the actual tech will likely be around sooner and it remains unclear if or who they will end up working with to make the actual car, which leads me to think of 2 scenarios.<blockquote>自动驾驶汽车技术也会发生同样的情况。苹果目前的目标是在4年内（即2025年）部署全自动驾驶全电动汽车。这意味着实际的技术可能会更快出现，但目前尚不清楚他们最终是否会或与谁合作制造实际的汽车，这让我想到了两种情况。</blockquote>Apple&#39;s Deployment Options<blockquote>苹果的部署选项</blockquote>The company&#39;s first scenario is to develop the vehicle with an established automobile manufacturer. There have been rumors in the past that Apple can use its massive cash pile to outright buy a company like Ford (F), however ridiculous that may sound. But the more likely path, which according to Seeking Alpha News Editor Clark Schultzhas become general consensus, is for them to partner with a company like Ford or General Motors (GM) to develop and manufacture the car with their technology.<blockquote>公司的第一个场景是与知名汽车制造商合作开发车辆过去有传言称，苹果可以利用其庞大的现金储备直接收购福特(F)这样的公司，无论这听起来多么荒谬。但据Seeking Alpha新闻编辑克拉克·舒尔茨(Clark Schultz)称，更有可能的途径是他们与福特或通用汽车(GM)等公司合作，利用他们的技术开发和制造汽车，这已成为普遍共识。</blockquote>In this scenario, in theory, their technology being available earlier than 2025 can mean that part of the deal with the auto manufacturer can be to rapidly deploy this technology to their existing capable vehicles before or right after the launch of their own car, which can put a big dent in Tesla&#39;s advantage and make Apple a leading autonomous driving titan.<blockquote>在这种情况下，理论上，他们的技术在2025年之前可用可能意味着与汽车制造商达成的协议的一部分可能是在他们自己的汽车推出之前或之后将这项技术快速部署到他们现有的有能力的车辆上，这可以大大削弱特斯拉的优势，使苹果成为领先的自动驾驶巨头。</blockquote>The company&#39;s second scenario is to fully develop this all-electric vehicle on their own which will mean that they get to enjoy much higher margins and exclusivity among their consumer base. Sharing their loyal consumer base with an established manufacturer may increase revenues but it&#39;ll put a damper on their current exclusivity business model and margins will be much lower.<blockquote>公司的第二个场景是完全自行开发这款全电动汽车这将意味着他们将在消费者群体中享受更高的利润和排他性。与老牌制造商分享忠诚的消费者基础可能会增加收入，但这会削弱他们当前的独家商业模式，利润率也会低得多。</blockquote>In this scenario, the main advantage is what comes next. Uber (UBER), as an example, ordering 1M vehicles will have Apple with a pretty big liquidity advantage since they can use the massive cash flows from their other businesses to subsidize the sale of these vehicles and then find another way to capitalize off the already-deployed vehicles.<blockquote>在这种情况下，主要的优势是接下来会发生什么。以优步(UBER)为例，订购100万辆汽车将为苹果带来相当大的流动性优势，因为他们可以利用其他业务的大量现金流来补贴这些汽车的销售，然后找到另一种方式来利用这些汽车。已经部署的车辆。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43edb98d143e5eed2609286d7c518d31\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"283\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Source: Technavio Industry Report<blockquote>资料来源：Technavio行业报告</blockquote>This does create issues though, so let&#39;s dive into them.<blockquote>不过，这确实会产生问题，所以让我们深入探讨一下。</blockquote>Risks Are Mostly Regulatory<blockquote>风险多为监管</blockquote>The most obvious regulatory risk for this new tech is that it may not happen for a long time yet. People have been saying &#34;fully autonomous cars are 5 years away&#34; for about 15 years now and there seems to always be a new roadblock on the way to widespread deployment. The other part of this is that with the new tech being so sensitive to these roadblocks, every and any accident will be scrutinized and put a hold on potential future manufacturing.<blockquote>这项新技术最明显的监管风险是，它可能在很长一段时间内都不会发生。大约15年来，人们一直在说“全自动驾驶汽车还需要5年时间”，在广泛部署的道路上似乎总是有新的障碍。另一部分是，由于新技术对这些障碍如此敏感，每一起事故都将受到审查，并阻碍未来潜在的制造。</blockquote>Like the concord halt after 1 accident or the space shuttle holds or the more recent Tesla autonomous driver car crash that made international headlines despite it being multitudes safer than human driving.<blockquote>比如协和号在一次事故后停止，或者航天飞机失事，或者最近的特斯拉自动驾驶车祸，尽管它比人类驾驶更安全，但仍成为国际头条新闻。</blockquote>The main Apple investment related regulatory risk, however, is monopolistic. If Apple ends up developing an all-electric autonomous vehicle of their own, the chances are that it&#39;ll be putting a lot of these other established companies out of business and will very likely be forced by regulators to be spun off into a separate company. It remains unclear how that will be handled and whether Apple investors will be rewarded through a stake in the company, earnings from investment or what and that could happen before a bulk of the growth actually comes, which may hinder the ability to capture it.<blockquote>然而，与苹果投资相关的主要监管风险是垄断。如果苹果最终开发出自己的全电动自动驾驶汽车，很可能会让许多其他老牌公司破产，并且很可能会被监管机构强制分拆为一家独立公司。目前尚不清楚如何处理这一问题，也不清楚苹果投资者是否会通过公司股份、投资收益或其他方式获得回报，而这可能会在大部分增长实际到来之前发生，这可能会阻碍获取增长的能力。</blockquote>Another Long-Term Growth Factor<blockquote>另一个长期增长因素</blockquote>Apple will very clearly continue to sell millions and millions of iPhones as well as iPads, MacBook&#39;s and other devices for years and possibly decades to come, not to mention any other futuristic devices they or others come up with. But it&#39;s clear that the same growth we&#39;ve seen over the past almost 20 years will not continue at the same rate from these devices alone.<blockquote>很明显，苹果将在未来几年甚至几十年继续销售数以百万计的iPhones以及iPads、MacBook和其他设备，更不用说他们或其他人推出的任何其他未来设备了。但很明显，我们在过去近20年中看到的同样的增长不会仅靠这些设备以同样的速度继续下去。</blockquote>As I&#39;ve written before, I believe that interconnected devices in the IoT space will enable longer term growth as it becomes more integrated into everyday life.<blockquote>正如我之前所写的，我相信物联网领域的互联设备将实现长期增长，因为它变得更加融入日常生活。</blockquote>But beyond that, the rumor and reality of the company&#39;s autonomous driving technologies and vehicle have been quite volatile in past years with the company closing down its operation and reopening it and now announcing that they&#39;ve gone full throttle to develop this new tech and vehicle in the next 4 years.<blockquote>但除此之外，该公司自动驾驶技术和车辆的谣言和现实在过去几年中一直相当不稳定，该公司关闭了业务并重新开放，现在宣布他们已全力以赴开发这项新技术和车辆在未来4年内。</blockquote>The reason why I am so bullish about their prospects to do so is that so far, it seems like industry experts have not fully appreciated the scope of which the company will be able to quickly deploy these technologies once they either become good enough for people to trust and / or when regulatory agencies adapt to this futuristic technology and allow for open adaptation on the roads.<blockquote>我如此看好他们这样做的前景的原因是，到目前为止，行业专家似乎还没有完全意识到，一旦这些技术变得足够好，公司将能够快速部署这些技术的范围值得人们信任和/或当监管机构适应这种未来技术并允许在道路上开放适应时。</blockquote>Right now, with forecasts for the global autonomous vehicle market calling for the industry to grow from $23 billion in 2020 to $65 billion by 2028, this represents just a 0.7% market share within the nearly $3.6 trillion industry. If we assume a 5% market share by 2030, which is where I believe the figure is going to be given the adaptation in local global cities and communities, that represents a market of roughly $200 billion by 2030, which is higher than current forecasts by nearly double.<blockquote>目前，对全球自动驾驶汽车市场的预测要求该行业从2020年的230亿美元增长到2028年的650亿美元，这在近3.6万亿美元的行业中仅占0.7%的市场份额。如果我们假设到2030年市场份额为5%（我相信这一数字将在全球本地城市和社区进行适应），那么到2030年市场规模约为2000亿美元，比目前的预测高出近一倍。</blockquote>I&#39;m not going to venture what Apple&#39;s market share will be in 2030 given all the uncertainty within this industry but it&#39;s clear to me that industry experts are underestimating how fast companies like Tesla and Apple can deploy these technologies and how much demand there will be once they pass the final regulatory and usage hurdles, which industry experts expect by 2030.<blockquote>鉴于该行业的所有不确定性，我不打算冒险预测苹果在2030年的市场份额将是多少，但我很清楚，行业专家低估了特斯拉和苹果等公司部署这些技术的速度以及需求的多少。一旦他们通过了最终的监管和使用障碍，行业专家预计到2030年。</blockquote>Long-Term Bullish Stance Remains<blockquote>长期看涨立场依然</blockquote>Them venturing into this yet untapped and massive growth potential industry will help sustain the company&#39;s growth in the longer run and their ability to deploy fast to a loyal customer base if a main reason I continue to be bullish on the company&#39;s long term prospects despite a neutral to slightly bearish short term one.<blockquote>他们冒险进入这个尚未开发且具有巨大增长潜力的行业将有助于维持公司的长期增长，以及他们快速部署到忠诚客户群的能力，如果这是我继续看好公司长期前景的主要原因，尽管短期前景中性至略有看跌。</blockquote>This article was written by Pinxter Analytics.<blockquote>本文由Pinxter Analytics撰写。</blockquote></body></html><blockquote></blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: The Real Player In Autonomous Vehicles<blockquote>苹果：自动驾驶汽车的真正参与者</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-12-29 19:46\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body>Summary<blockquote><html><head></head><body>总结</body></html></blockquote><ul><li>Apple has now officially been working on autonomous vehicle technology and they have a special advantage over other tech giants developing the same technologies.</li><li>As Tesla will certainly hold an early monopoly on the industry, Apple has the potential to be the first major disrupter to their status.</li><li>As a result, I reiterate my bullish long-term stance on the company.</li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e22f5522fb2a61b32ce63039b9a04d8b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1022\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>AdrianHancu/iStock Editorial via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>苹果现在已经正式致力于自动驾驶汽车技术，与其他开发相同技术的科技巨头相比，他们拥有特殊的优势。</li><li>由于特斯拉肯定会在早期垄断该行业，苹果有可能成为他们地位的第一个重大颠覆者。</li><li>因此，我重申我对该公司的长期看涨立场。</li></ul>AdrianHancu/iStock社论来自Getty Images</blockquote>Apple (AAPL) is the only real potential rival to Tesla&#39;s (TSLA) autonomous tech deployment potential.<blockquote>苹果（AAPL）是特斯拉（TSLA）自动驾驶技术部署潜力的唯一真正潜在竞争对手。</blockquote>Tesla has built a second-to-none system for autonomous driving through the hundreds of thousands of vehicles they have out there on the road analyzing and gathering information in a human-style collection of data system, and as a result I believe that they are miles ahead of any potential competition in the area by Alphabet&#39;s Google&#39;s Waymo (GOOG) (GOOGL) and the likes.<blockquote>特斯拉已经建立了一个首屈一指的自动驾驶系统，通过他们在道路上的数十万辆汽车在人性化的数据收集系统中分析和收集信息，因此我相信他们远远领先于Alphabet的谷歌的Waymo(GOOG)（GOOGL）等公司在该领域的任何潜在竞争。</blockquote>The reason for this is that once regulators approve any of this tech, it&#39;ll take months or years before this technology can be used in enough vehicles on the road or installed in existing ones while Tesla can convert their hundreds of thousands of vehicles to self-driving ones at the flick of a metaphorical switch.<blockquote>其原因是，一旦监管机构批准了任何这项技术，这项技术需要几个月或几年的时间才能用于道路上足够多的车辆或安装在现有车辆中，而特斯拉可以将其数十万辆汽车转换为自动驾驶汽车只需轻轻一按隐喻开关即可驾驶。</blockquote>But what Apple now has the ability to do is leverage their hundreds of millions of loyal users to quickly ramp up the use of any potential technology given the superior interconnectivity of their devices like the iPhone, iPad and MacBook. Leveraging this will provide them the opportunity to quickly scale up - whether they end up releasing just the tech for autonomous driving or their own car, independently or in partnership with auto manufacturers.<blockquote>但鉴于iPhone、iPad和MacBook等设备的卓越互连性，苹果现在有能力利用其数亿忠实用户快速增加任何潜在技术的使用。利用这一点将为他们提供快速扩大规模的机会——无论他们最终只发布自动驾驶技术还是自己的汽车，无论是独立还是与汽车制造商合作。</blockquote>As a result, even though I&#39;ve been slightly bearish on Apple&#39;s near-term prospects due to valuation concerns as well as what I predict will be a slower upgrade cycle, the company&#39;s long term prospects, on which I am bullish, are heavily reliant on new tech such as this one hitting the market somewhere between 2025 and 2030 in order to aid the company&#39;s long term growth.<blockquote>因此，尽管由于估值担忧以及我预测升级周期将放缓，我对苹果的近期前景略有悲观，但我看好的该公司的长期前景严重依赖于像这样的新技术将在2025年至2030年间上市，以帮助公司的长期增长。</blockquote>Tesla Advantage Breeds Apple Opportunity<blockquote>特斯拉优势孕育苹果机遇</blockquote>For the sake of this argument, let&#39;s say that tomorrow morning we all wake up and the federal government and regulators have fully approved self-driving, or autonomous, driving technologies. What that means is that virtually all the vehicles on the road today, with several exceptions, won&#39;t be immediately equipped to handle that tech but Tesla vehicles will. So the real question is how fast can any given company ramp up production of self-driving tech adaptable vehicles and how fast can they deploy them.<blockquote>为了这个论点，让我们假设明天早上我们都醒来，联邦政府和监管机构已经完全批准了自动驾驶技术。这意味着，除了少数例外，当今道路上几乎所有的车辆都不会立即配备处理该技术的设备，但特斯拉汽车会。因此，真正的问题是，任何一家公司能以多快的速度提高自动驾驶技术适应性车辆的产量，以及他们能以多快的速度部署它们。</blockquote>For the first several months, there&#39;s no doubt that Tesla will have a monopoly on this market based on the sheer number of vehicles they have on the road right now with those capabilities but the real question becomes who will be able to deploy this tech to capable vehicles the fastest. My answer is Apple.<blockquote>在最初的几个月里，毫无疑问，根据目前道路上拥有这些功能的车辆数量，特斯拉将垄断这个市场，但真正的问题是谁将能够将这项技术部署到有能力的车辆最快。我的答案是苹果。</blockquote>Apple, as we&#39;ve seen over the past few years, has a strong and large global base of loyal customers who like their products and enjoy their interconnectivity. This means that if one of them owns an iPhone and a MacBook, chances are that they&#39;ll get smart home devices made or adaptable by Apple - driving what I believe will be a big growth avenue for them in the IoT (internet of things) space.<blockquote>正如我们在过去几年中看到的那样，苹果拥有强大而庞大的全球忠实客户群，他们喜欢他们的产品并享受他们的互联性。这意味着，如果他们中的一个人拥有iPhone和MacBook，他们很可能会获得由苹果制造或改编的智能家居设备——我相信这将是他们在IoT（物联网）领域的一个巨大增长途径。</blockquote>The same will happen with autonomous vehicle tech. Apple currently has ambitions to deploy a fully autonomous all-electric vehicle in 4 years, by 2025. This means that the actual tech will likely be around sooner and it remains unclear if or who they will end up working with to make the actual car, which leads me to think of 2 scenarios.<blockquote>自动驾驶汽车技术也会发生同样的情况。苹果目前的目标是在4年内（即2025年）部署全自动驾驶全电动汽车。这意味着实际的技术可能会更快出现，但目前尚不清楚他们最终是否会或与谁合作制造实际的汽车，这让我想到了两种情况。</blockquote>Apple&#39;s Deployment Options<blockquote>苹果的部署选项</blockquote>The company&#39;s first scenario is to develop the vehicle with an established automobile manufacturer. There have been rumors in the past that Apple can use its massive cash pile to outright buy a company like Ford (F), however ridiculous that may sound. But the more likely path, which according to Seeking Alpha News Editor Clark Schultzhas become general consensus, is for them to partner with a company like Ford or General Motors (GM) to develop and manufacture the car with their technology.<blockquote>公司的第一个场景是与知名汽车制造商合作开发车辆过去有传言称，苹果可以利用其庞大的现金储备直接收购福特(F)这样的公司，无论这听起来多么荒谬。但据Seeking Alpha新闻编辑克拉克·舒尔茨(Clark Schultz)称，更有可能的途径是他们与福特或通用汽车(GM)等公司合作，利用他们的技术开发和制造汽车，这已成为普遍共识。</blockquote>In this scenario, in theory, their technology being available earlier than 2025 can mean that part of the deal with the auto manufacturer can be to rapidly deploy this technology to their existing capable vehicles before or right after the launch of their own car, which can put a big dent in Tesla&#39;s advantage and make Apple a leading autonomous driving titan.<blockquote>在这种情况下，理论上，他们的技术在2025年之前可用可能意味着与汽车制造商达成的协议的一部分可能是在他们自己的汽车推出之前或之后将这项技术快速部署到他们现有的有能力的车辆上，这可以大大削弱特斯拉的优势，使苹果成为领先的自动驾驶巨头。</blockquote>The company&#39;s second scenario is to fully develop this all-electric vehicle on their own which will mean that they get to enjoy much higher margins and exclusivity among their consumer base. Sharing their loyal consumer base with an established manufacturer may increase revenues but it&#39;ll put a damper on their current exclusivity business model and margins will be much lower.<blockquote>公司的第二个场景是完全自行开发这款全电动汽车这将意味着他们将在消费者群体中享受更高的利润和排他性。与老牌制造商分享忠诚的消费者基础可能会增加收入，但这会削弱他们当前的独家商业模式，利润率也会低得多。</blockquote>In this scenario, the main advantage is what comes next. Uber (UBER), as an example, ordering 1M vehicles will have Apple with a pretty big liquidity advantage since they can use the massive cash flows from their other businesses to subsidize the sale of these vehicles and then find another way to capitalize off the already-deployed vehicles.<blockquote>在这种情况下，主要的优势是接下来会发生什么。以优步(UBER)为例，订购100万辆汽车将为苹果带来相当大的流动性优势，因为他们可以利用其他业务的大量现金流来补贴这些汽车的销售，然后找到另一种方式来利用这些汽车。已经部署的车辆。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43edb98d143e5eed2609286d7c518d31\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"283\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Source: Technavio Industry Report<blockquote>资料来源：Technavio行业报告</blockquote>This does create issues though, so let&#39;s dive into them.<blockquote>不过，这确实会产生问题，所以让我们深入探讨一下。</blockquote>Risks Are Mostly Regulatory<blockquote>风险多为监管</blockquote>The most obvious regulatory risk for this new tech is that it may not happen for a long time yet. People have been saying &#34;fully autonomous cars are 5 years away&#34; for about 15 years now and there seems to always be a new roadblock on the way to widespread deployment. The other part of this is that with the new tech being so sensitive to these roadblocks, every and any accident will be scrutinized and put a hold on potential future manufacturing.<blockquote>这项新技术最明显的监管风险是，它可能在很长一段时间内都不会发生。大约15年来，人们一直在说“全自动驾驶汽车还需要5年时间”，在广泛部署的道路上似乎总是有新的障碍。另一部分是，由于新技术对这些障碍如此敏感，每一起事故都将受到审查，并阻碍未来潜在的制造。</blockquote>Like the concord halt after 1 accident or the space shuttle holds or the more recent Tesla autonomous driver car crash that made international headlines despite it being multitudes safer than human driving.<blockquote>比如协和号在一次事故后停止，或者航天飞机失事，或者最近的特斯拉自动驾驶车祸，尽管它比人类驾驶更安全，但仍成为国际头条新闻。</blockquote>The main Apple investment related regulatory risk, however, is monopolistic. If Apple ends up developing an all-electric autonomous vehicle of their own, the chances are that it&#39;ll be putting a lot of these other established companies out of business and will very likely be forced by regulators to be spun off into a separate company. It remains unclear how that will be handled and whether Apple investors will be rewarded through a stake in the company, earnings from investment or what and that could happen before a bulk of the growth actually comes, which may hinder the ability to capture it.<blockquote>然而，与苹果投资相关的主要监管风险是垄断。如果苹果最终开发出自己的全电动自动驾驶汽车，很可能会让许多其他老牌公司破产，并且很可能会被监管机构强制分拆为一家独立公司。目前尚不清楚如何处理这一问题，也不清楚苹果投资者是否会通过公司股份、投资收益或其他方式获得回报，而这可能会在大部分增长实际到来之前发生，这可能会阻碍获取增长的能力。</blockquote>Another Long-Term Growth Factor<blockquote>另一个长期增长因素</blockquote>Apple will very clearly continue to sell millions and millions of iPhones as well as iPads, MacBook&#39;s and other devices for years and possibly decades to come, not to mention any other futuristic devices they or others come up with. But it&#39;s clear that the same growth we&#39;ve seen over the past almost 20 years will not continue at the same rate from these devices alone.<blockquote>很明显，苹果将在未来几年甚至几十年继续销售数以百万计的iPhones以及iPads、MacBook和其他设备，更不用说他们或其他人推出的任何其他未来设备了。但很明显，我们在过去近20年中看到的同样的增长不会仅靠这些设备以同样的速度继续下去。</blockquote>As I&#39;ve written before, I believe that interconnected devices in the IoT space will enable longer term growth as it becomes more integrated into everyday life.<blockquote>正如我之前所写的，我相信物联网领域的互联设备将实现长期增长，因为它变得更加融入日常生活。</blockquote>But beyond that, the rumor and reality of the company&#39;s autonomous driving technologies and vehicle have been quite volatile in past years with the company closing down its operation and reopening it and now announcing that they&#39;ve gone full throttle to develop this new tech and vehicle in the next 4 years.<blockquote>但除此之外，该公司自动驾驶技术和车辆的谣言和现实在过去几年中一直相当不稳定，该公司关闭了业务并重新开放，现在宣布他们已全力以赴开发这项新技术和车辆在未来4年内。</blockquote>The reason why I am so bullish about their prospects to do so is that so far, it seems like industry experts have not fully appreciated the scope of which the company will be able to quickly deploy these technologies once they either become good enough for people to trust and / or when regulatory agencies adapt to this futuristic technology and allow for open adaptation on the roads.<blockquote>我如此看好他们这样做的前景的原因是，到目前为止，行业专家似乎还没有完全意识到，一旦这些技术变得足够好，公司将能够快速部署这些技术的范围值得人们信任和/或当监管机构适应这种未来技术并允许在道路上开放适应时。</blockquote>Right now, with forecasts for the global autonomous vehicle market calling for the industry to grow from $23 billion in 2020 to $65 billion by 2028, this represents just a 0.7% market share within the nearly $3.6 trillion industry. If we assume a 5% market share by 2030, which is where I believe the figure is going to be given the adaptation in local global cities and communities, that represents a market of roughly $200 billion by 2030, which is higher than current forecasts by nearly double.<blockquote>目前，对全球自动驾驶汽车市场的预测要求该行业从2020年的230亿美元增长到2028年的650亿美元，这在近3.6万亿美元的行业中仅占0.7%的市场份额。如果我们假设到2030年市场份额为5%（我相信这一数字将在全球本地城市和社区进行适应），那么到2030年市场规模约为2000亿美元，比目前的预测高出近一倍。</blockquote>I&#39;m not going to venture what Apple&#39;s market share will be in 2030 given all the uncertainty within this industry but it&#39;s clear to me that industry experts are underestimating how fast companies like Tesla and Apple can deploy these technologies and how much demand there will be once they pass the final regulatory and usage hurdles, which industry experts expect by 2030.<blockquote>鉴于该行业的所有不确定性，我不打算冒险预测苹果在2030年的市场份额将是多少，但我很清楚，行业专家低估了特斯拉和苹果等公司部署这些技术的速度以及需求的多少。一旦他们通过了最终的监管和使用障碍，行业专家预计到2030年。</blockquote>Long-Term Bullish Stance Remains<blockquote>长期看涨立场依然</blockquote>Them venturing into this yet untapped and massive growth potential industry will help sustain the company&#39;s growth in the longer run and their ability to deploy fast to a loyal customer base if a main reason I continue to be bullish on the company&#39;s long term prospects despite a neutral to slightly bearish short term one.<blockquote>他们冒险进入这个尚未开发且具有巨大增长潜力的行业将有助于维持公司的长期增长，以及他们快速部署到忠诚客户群的能力，如果这是我继续看好公司长期前景的主要原因，尽管短期前景中性至略有看跌。</blockquote>This article was written by Pinxter Analytics.<blockquote>本文由Pinxter Analytics撰写。</blockquote></body></html><blockquote></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4477156-apple-the-real-player-in-autonomous-vehicles\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4477156-apple-the-real-player-in-autonomous-vehicles","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148298060","content_text":"SummaryApple has now officially been working on autonomous vehicle technology and they have a special advantage over other tech giants developing the same technologies.As Tesla will certainly hold an early monopoly on the industry, Apple has the potential to be the first major disrupter to their status.As a result, I reiterate my bullish long-term stance on the company.AdrianHancu/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesApple (AAPL) is the only real potential rival to Tesla's (TSLA) autonomous tech deployment potential.Tesla has built a second-to-none system for autonomous driving through the hundreds of thousands of vehicles they have out there on the road analyzing and gathering information in a human-style collection of data system, and as a result I believe that they are miles ahead of any potential competition in the area by Alphabet's Google's Waymo (GOOG) (GOOGL) and the likes.The reason for this is that once regulators approve any of this tech, it'll take months or years before this technology can be used in enough vehicles on the road or installed in existing ones while Tesla can convert their hundreds of thousands of vehicles to self-driving ones at the flick of a metaphorical switch.But what Apple now has the ability to do is leverage their hundreds of millions of loyal users to quickly ramp up the use of any potential technology given the superior interconnectivity of their devices like the iPhone, iPad and MacBook. Leveraging this will provide them the opportunity to quickly scale up - whether they end up releasing just the tech for autonomous driving or their own car, independently or in partnership with auto manufacturers.As a result, even though I've been slightly bearish on Apple's near-term prospects due to valuation concerns as well as what I predict will be a slower upgrade cycle, the company's long term prospects, on which I am bullish, are heavily reliant on new tech such as this one hitting the market somewhere between 2025 and 2030 in order to aid the company's long term growth.Tesla Advantage Breeds Apple OpportunityFor the sake of this argument, let's say that tomorrow morning we all wake up and the federal government and regulators have fully approved self-driving, or autonomous, driving technologies. What that means is that virtually all the vehicles on the road today, with several exceptions, won't be immediately equipped to handle that tech but Tesla vehicles will. So the real question is how fast can any given company ramp up production of self-driving tech adaptable vehicles and how fast can they deploy them.For the first several months, there's no doubt that Tesla will have a monopoly on this market based on the sheer number of vehicles they have on the road right now with those capabilities but the real question becomes who will be able to deploy this tech to capable vehicles the fastest. My answer is Apple.Apple, as we've seen over the past few years, has a strong and large global base of loyal customers who like their products and enjoy their interconnectivity. This means that if one of them owns an iPhone and a MacBook, chances are that they'll get smart home devices made or adaptable by Apple - driving what I believe will be a big growth avenue for them in the IoT (internet of things) space.The same will happen with autonomous vehicle tech. Apple currently has ambitions to deploy a fully autonomous all-electric vehicle in 4 years, by 2025. This means that the actual tech will likely be around sooner and it remains unclear if or who they will end up working with to make the actual car, which leads me to think of 2 scenarios.Apple's Deployment OptionsThe company's first scenario is to develop the vehicle with an established automobile manufacturer. There have been rumors in the past that Apple can use its massive cash pile to outright buy a company like Ford (F), however ridiculous that may sound. But the more likely path, which according to Seeking Alpha News Editor Clark Schultzhas become general consensus, is for them to partner with a company like Ford or General Motors (GM) to develop and manufacture the car with their technology.In this scenario, in theory, their technology being available earlier than 2025 can mean that part of the deal with the auto manufacturer can be to rapidly deploy this technology to their existing capable vehicles before or right after the launch of their own car, which can put a big dent in Tesla's advantage and make Apple a leading autonomous driving titan.The company's second scenario is to fully develop this all-electric vehicle on their own which will mean that they get to enjoy much higher margins and exclusivity among their consumer base. Sharing their loyal consumer base with an established manufacturer may increase revenues but it'll put a damper on their current exclusivity business model and margins will be much lower.In this scenario, the main advantage is what comes next. Uber (UBER), as an example, ordering 1M vehicles will have Apple with a pretty big liquidity advantage since they can use the massive cash flows from their other businesses to subsidize the sale of these vehicles and then find another way to capitalize off the already-deployed vehicles.Source: Technavio Industry ReportThis does create issues though, so let's dive into them.Risks Are Mostly RegulatoryThe most obvious regulatory risk for this new tech is that it may not happen for a long time yet. People have been saying \"fully autonomous cars are 5 years away\" for about 15 years now and there seems to always be a new roadblock on the way to widespread deployment. The other part of this is that with the new tech being so sensitive to these roadblocks, every and any accident will be scrutinized and put a hold on potential future manufacturing.Like the concord halt after 1 accident or the space shuttle holds or the more recent Tesla autonomous driver car crash that made international headlines despite it being multitudes safer than human driving.The main Apple investment related regulatory risk, however, is monopolistic. If Apple ends up developing an all-electric autonomous vehicle of their own, the chances are that it'll be putting a lot of these other established companies out of business and will very likely be forced by regulators to be spun off into a separate company. It remains unclear how that will be handled and whether Apple investors will be rewarded through a stake in the company, earnings from investment or what and that could happen before a bulk of the growth actually comes, which may hinder the ability to capture it.Another Long-Term Growth FactorApple will very clearly continue to sell millions and millions of iPhones as well as iPads, MacBook's and other devices for years and possibly decades to come, not to mention any other futuristic devices they or others come up with. But it's clear that the same growth we've seen over the past almost 20 years will not continue at the same rate from these devices alone.As I've written before, I believe that interconnected devices in the IoT space will enable longer term growth as it becomes more integrated into everyday life.But beyond that, the rumor and reality of the company's autonomous driving technologies and vehicle have been quite volatile in past years with the company closing down its operation and reopening it and now announcing that they've gone full throttle to develop this new tech and vehicle in the next 4 years.The reason why I am so bullish about their prospects to do so is that so far, it seems like industry experts have not fully appreciated the scope of which the company will be able to quickly deploy these technologies once they either become good enough for people to trust and / or when regulatory agencies adapt to this futuristic technology and allow for open adaptation on the roads.Right now, with forecasts for the global autonomous vehicle market calling for the industry to grow from $23 billion in 2020 to $65 billion by 2028, this represents just a 0.7% market share within the nearly $3.6 trillion industry. If we assume a 5% market share by 2030, which is where I believe the figure is going to be given the adaptation in local global cities and communities, that represents a market of roughly $200 billion by 2030, which is higher than current forecasts by nearly double.I'm not going to venture what Apple's market share will be in 2030 given all the uncertainty within this industry but it's clear to me that industry experts are underestimating how fast companies like Tesla and Apple can deploy these technologies and how much demand there will be once they pass the final regulatory and usage hurdles, which industry experts expect by 2030.Long-Term Bullish Stance RemainsThem venturing into this yet untapped and massive growth potential industry will help sustain the company's growth in the longer run and their ability to deploy fast to a loyal customer base if a main reason I continue to be bullish on the company's long term prospects despite a neutral to slightly bearish short term one.This article was written by Pinxter Analytics.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2126,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":6,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}