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2021-12-23

Nvidia's Bright Growth Outlook<blockquote>英伟达光明的增长前景</blockquote>

Summary The top end of our fair value estimate range for Nvidia Corporation, derived through our di

Nvidia's Bright Growth Outlook<blockquote>英伟达光明的增长前景</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":691793476,"tweetId":"691793476","gmtCreate":1640238503123,"gmtModify":1640238504059,"author":{"id":3564398446314499,"idStr":"3564398446314499","authorId":3564398446314499,"authorIdStr":"3564398446314499","name":"Gibbie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac29ad2a0a11289a908ae00b770dc0c5","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":85,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Meta&nbsp;</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Meta&nbsp;</body></html>","text":"Meta","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/691793476","repostId":1184640882,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1184640882","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640238232,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1184640882?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-23 13:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia's Bright Growth Outlook<blockquote>英伟达光明的增长前景</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184640882","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe top end of our fair value estimate range for Nvidia Corporation, derived through our di","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>The top end of our fair value estimate range for Nvidia Corporation, derived through our discounted free cash flow analysis process, sits at $311 per share.</li> <li>Several powerful secular growth tailwinds including the ongoing proliferation of e-commerce, cloud computing, AI, and autonomous driving operations underpin Nvidia's promising growth outlook.</li> <li>Nvidia is a stellar free cash flow generator with a fortress-like balance sheet and balanced capital allocation priorities.</li> <li>We think it is growing unlikely that Nvidia's planned purchase of Arm from SoftBank Group Corp will go through due to antitrust and other regulatory concerns seen around the world.</li> <li>Nvidia's recent push into the CPU market on top of its dominant position in the GPU market further underpins why the firm's growth outlook appears so promising, in our view.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0d88c6fe83f28815faabe05002aaad5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">serg3d/iStock Editorial via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>通过贴现自由现金流分析流程得出的Nvidia Corporation公允价值估计范围的上限为每股311美元。</li><li>包括电子商务、云计算、人工智能和自动驾驶业务的持续激增在内的几个强大的长期增长推动力支撑了英伟达充满希望的增长前景。</li><li>英伟达是一家出色的自由现金流产生者，拥有堡垒般的资产负债表和平衡的资本配置优先事项。</li><li>我们认为，由于全球范围内的反垄断和其他监管担忧，英伟达从软银集团公司收购Arm的计划越来越不可能实现。</li><li>我们认为，Nvidia最近在GPU市场占据主导地位的基础上进军CPU市场，这进一步证实了该公司增长前景如此光明的原因。</li></ul>serg3d/iStock社论来自Getty Images</blockquote> As part of our investment analysis process, we perform a rigorous discounted cash-flow methodology that dives into the cash-flow-derived intrinsic worth of companies. This process is built around forecasting a firm's future free cash flows, discounting those future forecasted free cash flows at the appropriate rate, and then taking its balance sheet considerations (such as its net cash/debt position, and legal/environmental/pension liabilities) into account. In NVIDIA Corporation's (NVDA) case, the top end of our fair value estimate range sits at $311 per share, modestly above where shares of NVDA are trading at as of this writing. Please note that over the coming years, the top end ofNVIDIA's fair value estimate range could grow north of $410 per share, something we will cover in this article.<blockquote>作为我们投资分析流程的一部分，我们执行严格的贴现现金流方法，深入研究公司现金流衍生的内在价值。该流程围绕预测公司未来的自由现金流而构建，以适当的利率贴现这些未来预测的自由现金流，然后考虑其资产负债表考虑因素（例如净现金/债务状况以及法律/环境/养老金负债）。在英伟达公司(NVDA)的案例中，我们的公平价值估计区间上限为每股311美元，略高于截至本文撰写时NVDA股票交易价格的情况。请注意，未来几年，Nvidia公允价值估计范围的上限可能会增长到每股410美元以上，我们将在本文中讨论这一点。</blockquote> Investment Highlights<blockquote>投资亮点</blockquote> NVIDIA is a computer graphics company. Its business is based on two technologies: the graphics processing units ('GPUs') and the&nbsp;Tegra&nbsp;system-on-a-chip ('SoC') offering. GPUs are the&nbsp;engine&nbsp;of visual computing. Tegra processors incorporate multi-core GPUs and central processing units ('CPUs') together with audio and video capabilities, and are used in smartphones, tablets, and luxury automobiles.NVIDIA was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Santa Clara, California. Like many of its peers,NVIDIA relies on&nbsp;third-party foundries&nbsp;to produce the semiconductor components (or \"chips\") that it designs.<blockquote>英伟达是一家计算机图形公司。其业务基于两种技术：图形处理单元（“GPU”）和Tegra片上系统（“SoC”）产品。GPU是视觉计算的引擎。Tegra处理器将多核GPU和中央处理器（“CPU”）以及音频和视频功能结合在一起，用于智能手机、平板电脑和豪华汽车。NVIDIA成立于1993年，总部位于加利福尼亚州圣克拉拉。与许多同行一样，英伟达依赖第三方代工厂来生产其设计的半导体组件（或“芯片”）。</blockquote> Gaming and data centers have been key sources of revenue growth forNVIDIA as demand for its core GPU offerings surged higher in the wake of the coronavirus ('COVID-19') pandemic. During the first three quarters of fiscal 2022 (period ended&nbsp;October 31, 2021),NVIDIA's GAAP revenues grew by 65% year-over-year while its GAAP operating income more than doubled during this period. This strong showing was largely made possible through the stellar performance of its 'Gaming' and 'Data Center' business segments.<blockquote>游戏和数据中心一直是英伟达收入增长的主要来源，因为在冠状病毒（“新冠肺炎”）大流行之后，对其核心GPU产品的需求激增。2022财年前三季度（截至2021年10月31日），英伟达的GAAP收入同比增长65%，而GAAP营业收入在此期间增长了一倍多。这一强劲表现在很大程度上得益于其“游戏”和“数据中心”业务部门的出色表现。</blockquote> Looking ahead, management offered guidance for the fiscal fourth quarter in conjunction withNVIDIA's latest earnings update that indicated its strong financial performance is expected to continue going forward. Its high-end graphics rendering platform,NVIDIA RTX, is setting new standards in gaming technology.<blockquote>展望未来，管理层结合英伟达最新的收益更新提供了第四财季的指引，表明其强劲的财务业绩预计将继续下去。其高端图形渲染平台NVIDIA RTX正在树立游戏技术的新标准。</blockquote> NVIDIA is also making&nbsp;inroads&nbsp;in the \"omniverse\" space, its preferred way to refer to the digital worlds that the \"metaverse\" aims to create. These are still early days, though we appreciate the effortNVIDIA's management team is making as it concerns identifying growth opportunities with long legs.<blockquote>英伟达也在进军“omniverse”领域，这是它指代“元宇宙”旨在创建的数字世界的首选方式。尽管我们赞赏英伟达管理团队在寻找长腿增长机会方面所做的努力，但现在仍处于早期阶段。</blockquote> While its GPU offerings areNVIDIA's bread-and-butter, the company is working on rolling out a standalone CPU offering, the&nbsp;NVIDIA Grace CPU, which is geared towards data centers. This new offering was announced in April 2021 and is expected to be made available on a commercial basis in 2023. Please note both GPUs and CPUs are used in data centers, personal computers, and for a variety of other computing purposes. Expanding into the CPU market represents a massive growth opportunity forNVIDIA and this move is one of several reasons why we view the company's growth trajectory so favorably.<blockquote>虽然其GPU产品是Envidia的主要产品，但该公司正在努力推出一款独立的CPU产品，即面向数据中心的NVIDIA Grace CPU。这项新产品于2021年4月宣布，预计将于2023年投入商业使用。请注意，GPU和CPU都用于数据中心、个人计算机和各种其他计算目的。拓展CPU市场对Nvidia来说是一个巨大的增长机会，此举是我们如此看好该公司增长轨迹的几个原因之一。</blockquote> The forecasts for our enterprise cash flow model (which we will cover in this article) assumes double-digit annual revenue growth and meaningful margin expansion over the coming fiscal years. This forecast is underpinned byNVIDIA’s relentless focus on innovation, secular growth tailwinds, and its successes in the realm of gaming, data centers, autonomous driving,and AI. Should the firm stumble for any reason, its intrinsic value would face serious headwinds.<blockquote>我们的企业现金流模型（我们将在本文中介绍）的预测假设未来财年年收入将实现两位数的增长，利润率将大幅扩张。这一预测的基础是英伟达对创新、长期增长推动力及其在游戏、数据中心、自动驾驶和人工智能领域的成功。如果公司因任何原因陷入困境，其内在价值将面临严重的阻力。</blockquote> NVIDIA expects to be a significant player in autonomous driving. Hundreds of companies use its&nbsp;Drive AGX&nbsp;open computing platform, and the list includes many of the top names in next-gen car and truck manufacturing.NVIDIA tabs autonomous vehicles as a $60 billion&nbsp;opportunity&nbsp;by 2035.<blockquote>英伟达预计将成为自动驾驶领域的重要参与者。数百家公司使用其Drive AGX开放计算平台，其中包括下一代汽车和卡车制造领域的许多顶级公司。NVIDIA将自动驾驶汽车视为到2035年价值600亿美元的机遇。</blockquote> In April 2020,NVIDIA&nbsp;completed&nbsp;its ~$7 billion acquisition of Mellanox, bolstering its operations that cater to data centers.NVIDIA is in&nbsp;the process&nbsp;of acquiring Arm Limited (designer of semiconductor architecture) from SoftBank Group Corp (OTCPK:SFTBY) and SoftBank's Vision Fund in a transaction priced at ~$40 billion (with a ~$12 billion cash component), though antitrust hurdles&nbsp;remain&nbsp;and it is looking increasingly&nbsp;unlikely&nbsp;that the deal will go forward.<blockquote>2020年4月，NVIDIA完成了对Mellanox约70亿美元的收购，加强了其数据中心业务。NVIDIA正在从软银集团公司（OTCPK：SFTBY）和软银收购Arm Limited（半导体架构设计商）愿景基金的交易价格约为400亿美元（其中现金部分约为120亿美元），尽管反垄断障碍仍然存在，而且该交易似乎越来越不可能继续进行。</blockquote> Economic Profit Analysis<blockquote>经济效益分析</blockquote> The best measure of a firm's ability to create value for shareholders is expressed by comparing its return on invested capital ['ROIC'] with its weighted average cost of capital ['WACC']. The gap or difference between ROIC and WACC is called the firm's economic profit spread.NVIDIA has historically been a stellar generator of shareholder value and we expect that this will continue being the case going forward.<blockquote>衡量公司为股东创造价值能力的最佳方法是将其投资资本回报率[“ROIC”]与其加权平均资本成本[“WACC”]进行比较。ROIC和WACC之间的差距或差异称为公司的经济利润利差。NVIDIA历来是股东价值的杰出创造者，我们预计未来这种情况将继续下去。</blockquote> NVIDIA's 3-fiscal year&nbsp;historical return&nbsp;on invested capital (without goodwill) is 94.5%, which is above the estimate of its cost of capital of 9.8%. In the upcoming graphic down below, we show the probable path of its forecasted ROIC in the fiscal years ahead based on the estimated volatility of key drivers behind the measure. The solid grey line reflects the most likely outcome (our \"base\" case scenario), in our opinion, and represents the scenario that results in our fair value estimate. The blue dots represent our \"bull\" case scenario and the green dots represent our \"bear\" case scenario.<blockquote>英伟达3个财年的历史投资资本回报率（不含商誉）为94.5%，高于其资本成本9.8%的估计。在下图中，我们根据该指标背后关键驱动因素的估计波动性，显示了未来财年预测投资回报率的可能路径。灰色实线反映了我们认为最有可能的结果（我们的“基本”案例情景），并代表了导致我们公允价值估计的情景。蓝点代表我们的“牛市”情景，绿点代表我们的“熊市”情景。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df45d00b608333d9732ab8afeaaba4a2\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"480\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Image Shown: NVIDIA is a stellar generator of shareholder value as its forecasted ROIC, excluding goodwill, is expected to vastly exceed its estimated WACC over the coming fiscal years. Historically, NVIDIA's ROIC excluding goodwill has significantly outpaced its estimated WACC, indicating that in the past it has generated substantial shareholder value, but we are most interested in its future. Image Source: Valuentum<blockquote>如图所示：英伟达是股东价值的杰出创造者，因为其预测的投资回报率（不包括商誉）预计将在未来财年大大超过其估计的WACC。从历史上看，英伟达不包括商誉的投资回报率大大超过了其估计的WACC，这表明它在过去创造了巨大的股东价值，但我们最感兴趣的是它的未来。图片来源：Valuentum</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a76899e4ecec2cb399eb536f039a8d14\" tg-width=\"559\" tg-height=\"736\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Image Shown: An overview of how we calculated NVIDIA's estimated WACC. Image Source: Valuentum<blockquote>所示图片：我们如何计算NVIDIA预计WACC的概述。图片来源：Valuentum</blockquote> Cash Flow Analysis<blockquote>现金流量分析</blockquote> NVIDIA is a tremendous generator of free cash flow. From fiscal 2019-2021 (NVIDIA's fiscal year ends in late-January), the company generated ~$4.0 billion in annual free cash flow on average. In fiscal 2020 and fiscal 2021, asNVIDIA was building up cash to fund its aforementioned acquisition activities, the firm did not repurchase a meaningful amount of its stock. However, in fiscal 2019,NVIDIA repurchased $1.6 billion of its stock. The firm exited fiscal 2021 with $0.4 billion in run-rate dividend obligations.<blockquote>英伟达是自由现金流的巨大创造者。从2019-2021财年（英伟达的财年于1月下旬结束），该公司平均每年产生约40亿美元的自由现金流。在2020财年和2021财年，英伟达正在积累现金为上述收购活动提供资金，但该公司没有回购大量股票。然而，在2019财年，英伟达回购了16亿美元的股票。该公司在2021财年结束时有4亿美元的运行率股息义务。</blockquote> Its stellar free cash flow performance continued into fiscal 2022. During the first three quarters of the current fiscal year,NVIDIA generated $5.4 billion in free cash flow while spending $0.3 billion covering its dividend obligations. The firm continued to hold off on share buybacks during this period. At the end of October 2021,NVIDIA had a net cash position of $8.4 billion with no short-term debt on the books. We are huge fans ofNVIDIA's pristine balance sheet and balanced approached to capital allocation decisions.<blockquote>其出色的自由现金流表现持续到2022财年。在本财年的前三个季度，英伟达产生了54亿美元的自由现金流，同时花费了3亿美元来支付其股息义务。在此期间，该公司继续推迟股票回购。截至2021年10月底，英伟达的净现金头寸为84亿美元，账面上没有短期债务。我们非常喜欢英伟达原始的资产负债表和平衡的资本配置决策方法。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a33e177ba3b8979c4701cd8c7017c0f6\" tg-width=\"561\" tg-height=\"483\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Image Shown: NVIDIA has historically been a tremendous generator of free cash flow, and we forecast that will continue being the case going forward. Image Source: Valuentum<blockquote>如图所示：英伟达历来是自由现金流的巨大创造者，我们预测未来这种情况将继续下去。图片来源：Valuentum</blockquote> Valuation Analysis<blockquote>估值分析</blockquote> We thinkNVIDIA is worth $247 per share (under our base case scenario) with a fair value range of $183-$311 per share (the lower rung of our fair value estimate represents our bear case scenario and the upper rung represents our bull case scenario). The near-term operating forecasts we used in our enterprise cash flow models, including revenue and earnings forecasts, do not differ much from consensus estimates or management guidance.<blockquote>我们认为Nvidia的每股价值为247美元（在我们的基本情景下），公允价值范围为每股183美元至311美元（我们公允价值估计的下限代表我们的熊市情景，上限代表我们的牛市情景）。我们在企业现金流模型中使用的近期运营预测，包括收入和盈利预测，与共识估计或管理层指导没有太大差异。</blockquote> Our discounted cash flow models reflect a compound annual revenue growth rate of 24.7% during the next five full fiscal years, a pace that is higher than the firm's 3-fiscal year historical compound annual growth rate of 19.7%. Our models reflects a 5-fiscal year projected average operating margin of 49.2%, which is aboveNVIDIA's trailing 3-fiscal year average (in fiscal 2021,NVIDIA's GAAP operating margin stood at 43.6%).<blockquote>我们的贴现现金流模型反映了未来五个完整财年的复合年收入增长率为24.7%，高于该公司3个财年19.7%的历史复合年增长率。我们的模型反映了5个财年的预计平均营业利润率为49.2%，高于Vidia过去3个财年的平均水平（2021财年，NVIDIA的GAAP营业利润率为43.6%）。</blockquote> Beyond Year 5 (five full fiscal years from the end ofNVIDIA's latest fiscal year), we assume free cash flow will grow at an annual rate of 10.9% for the next 15 fiscal years and 3% in perpetuity. ForNVIDIA, we use a 9.8% weighted average cost of capital to discount future free cash flows. The coming graphic down below highlights the key valuation assumptions used in our base case scenario covering&nbsp;NVIDIA.<blockquote>超过第5年（从NVIDIA最新财年结束起的五个完整财年），我们假设自由现金流在未来15财年将以10.9%的年增长率增长，并永久增长3%。对于英伟达，我们使用9.8%的加权平均资本成本来贴现未来自由现金流。下图重点介绍了我们涵盖NVIDIA的基本案例中使用的关键估值假设。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ec17bc624989924f5e557d74e07b7f2\" tg-width=\"556\" tg-height=\"490\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Image Shown: An overview of the key valuation assumptions used in our cash flow model covering NVIDIA under our base case scenario. Image Source: Valuentum<blockquote>如图所示：在我们的基本情景下，我们涵盖NVIDIA的现金流模型中使用的关键估值假设概述。图片来源：Valuentum</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48f53155ec22cc97ef62fe0239d5930\" tg-width=\"548\" tg-height=\"505\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Image Shown: NVIDIA's long growth tail underpins why most of the intrinsic value of its equity comes from its forecasted free cash flows, discounted at the appropriate rate, during the Year 6+ period into perpetuity. Image Source: Valuentum<blockquote>如图所示：NVIDIA的长增长尾支撑了为什么其股权的大部分内在价值来自其预测的自由现金流，并在6年以上的时间内以适当的利率贴现。图片来源：Valuentum</blockquote> Please note thatNVIDIA could exceed the key valuation assumptions within our base case scenario. For instance, its revenue might grow at a faster pace than our cash flow model is assuming asNVIDIA pushes into the CPU space while powerful secular growth tailwinds underpin demand for its semiconductor offerings. Additionally,NVIDIA's operating margins could expand at a more robust pace than our cash flow models are assuming if the uplift from economies of scale and its immense pricing power outperforms.<blockquote>请注意，英伟达可能会超出我们基本情景中的关键估值假设。例如，其收入增长速度可能比我们的现金流模型假设的要快，因为英伟达进军CPU领域，而强大的长期增长推动力支撑了对其半导体产品的需求。此外，如果规模经济及其巨大定价能力的提升表现出色，英伟达的营业利润率可能会以比我们的现金流模型假设的更强劲的速度扩张。</blockquote> With this in mind, we like to provide a range of potential outcomes that take into the chance for a firm to outperform or underperform the key valuation assumptions used in our cash flow models. ShouldNVIDIA outperform, the top end of our fair value estimate range sits at $311 per share.<blockquote>考虑到这一点，我们希望提供一系列潜在结果，以考虑公司表现优于或低于我们现金流模型中使用的关键估值假设的机会。如果英伟达跑赢大盘，我们的公允价值估计范围的上限为每股311美元。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a77a92954fa4327f4f5d246ee8a84a8\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"331\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Image Shown: At the top end of our fair value estimate range, NVIDIA has an intrinsic value of $311 per share. Image Source: Valuentum<blockquote>如图所示：在我们公允价值估计范围的上限，NVIDIA的内在价值为每股311美元。图片来源：Valuentum</blockquote> Future Path of Fair Value<blockquote>公允价值的未来路径</blockquote> As time passes, companies generate cash flow and pay out cash to shareholders in the form of dividends. The upcoming graphic down below compares the firm's recent share price with the path ofNVIDIA's expected equity value per share over the next three fiscal years, assuming our long-term projections prove accurate. The range between the resulting downside fair value and upside fair value in Year 3 represents our best estimate of the value of the firm's shares three full fiscal years hence.<blockquote>久而久之，公司会产生现金流，并以股息的形式向股东支付现金。下图将该公司最近的股价与英伟达未来三个财年每股预期股权价值的路径进行了比较，假设我们的长期预测被证明是准确的。第三年产生的下行公允价值和上行公允价值之间的范围代表了我们对三个完整财年后公司股票价值的最佳估计。</blockquote> This range of potential outcomes is also subject to change over time, should our views on the firm's future cash flow potential change. The expected fair value of $327 per share in Year 3 represents our existing fair value per share of $247 increased at an annual rate of the firm's cost of equity less its dividend yield. The upside and downside ranges are derived in the same way, but from the upper and lower bounds of our fair value estimate range. ShouldNVIDIA outperform, its fair value estimate could grow to over $410 by Year 3.<blockquote>如果我们对公司未来现金流潜力的看法发生变化，这一系列潜在结果也会随着时间的推移而发生变化。第三年每股327美元的预期公允价值代表我们现有的每股公允价值247美元，按公司股本成本减去股息收益率的年率增长。上行和下行范围以相同的方式得出，但来自我们公允价值估计范围的上限和下限。如果Nvidia表现优于大盘，其公允价值估计可能会在第三年增长至410美元以上。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7bb37f5bbe479c8ce940639d804694f3\" tg-width=\"551\" tg-height=\"414\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Image Shown: We forecast that NVIDIA's fair value estimate will grow significantly over the coming fiscal years. Image Source: Valuentum<blockquote>如图所示：我们预测英伟达的公允价值估计将在未来几个财年大幅增长。图片来源：Valuentum</blockquote> Concluding Thoughts<blockquote>结束语</blockquote> ThoughNVIDIA's planned acquisition of Arm will probably not go through due to growing and sizable antitrust concerns,NVIDIA's growth outlook is still quite bright.NVIDIA has a fortress-like balance sheet, stellar free cash flow generating abilities, and has been growing like a weed in recent fiscal years. Powerful secular growth tailwinds, such as the proliferation of e-commerce, cloud computing, AI, and autonomous driving offerings all underpinNVIDIA's bright long-term growth outlook. Shares of NVDA yield a negligible amount as of this writing as management prefers to invest in the business and build up cash on hand to fund acquisition activities. Virtually all ofNVIDIA's upside comes from its capital appreciation potential.<blockquote>尽管由于日益严重的反垄断担忧，英伟达对Arm的收购计划可能不会通过，但英伟达的增长前景仍然相当光明。英伟达拥有堡垒般的资产负债表、出色的自由现金流产生能力，并且在最近的财政年度。强大的长期增长推动力，例如电子商务、云计算、人工智能和自动驾驶产品的激增，都支撑着英伟达光明的长期增长前景。截至撰写本文时，NVDA股票的收益可以忽略不计，因为管理层更愿意投资该业务并积累手头现金来为收购活动提供资金。英伟达几乎所有的上涨空间都来自于其资本增值潜力。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia's Bright Growth Outlook<blockquote>英伟达光明的增长前景</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia's Bright Growth Outlook<blockquote>英伟达光明的增长前景</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-12-23 13:43\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>The top end of our fair value estimate range for Nvidia Corporation, derived through our discounted free cash flow analysis process, sits at $311 per share.</li> <li>Several powerful secular growth tailwinds including the ongoing proliferation of e-commerce, cloud computing, AI, and autonomous driving operations underpin Nvidia's promising growth outlook.</li> <li>Nvidia is a stellar free cash flow generator with a fortress-like balance sheet and balanced capital allocation priorities.</li> <li>We think it is growing unlikely that Nvidia's planned purchase of Arm from SoftBank Group Corp will go through due to antitrust and other regulatory concerns seen around the world.</li> <li>Nvidia's recent push into the CPU market on top of its dominant position in the GPU market further underpins why the firm's growth outlook appears so promising, in our view.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0d88c6fe83f28815faabe05002aaad5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">serg3d/iStock Editorial via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>通过贴现自由现金流分析流程得出的Nvidia Corporation公允价值估计范围的上限为每股311美元。</li><li>包括电子商务、云计算、人工智能和自动驾驶业务的持续激增在内的几个强大的长期增长推动力支撑了英伟达充满希望的增长前景。</li><li>英伟达是一家出色的自由现金流产生者，拥有堡垒般的资产负债表和平衡的资本配置优先事项。</li><li>我们认为，由于全球范围内的反垄断和其他监管担忧，英伟达从软银集团公司收购Arm的计划越来越不可能实现。</li><li>我们认为，Nvidia最近在GPU市场占据主导地位的基础上进军CPU市场，这进一步证实了该公司增长前景如此光明的原因。</li></ul>serg3d/iStock社论来自Getty Images</blockquote> As part of our investment analysis process, we perform a rigorous discounted cash-flow methodology that dives into the cash-flow-derived intrinsic worth of companies. This process is built around forecasting a firm's future free cash flows, discounting those future forecasted free cash flows at the appropriate rate, and then taking its balance sheet considerations (such as its net cash/debt position, and legal/environmental/pension liabilities) into account. In NVIDIA Corporation's (NVDA) case, the top end of our fair value estimate range sits at $311 per share, modestly above where shares of NVDA are trading at as of this writing. Please note that over the coming years, the top end ofNVIDIA's fair value estimate range could grow north of $410 per share, something we will cover in this article.<blockquote>作为我们投资分析流程的一部分，我们执行严格的贴现现金流方法，深入研究公司现金流衍生的内在价值。该流程围绕预测公司未来的自由现金流而构建，以适当的利率贴现这些未来预测的自由现金流，然后考虑其资产负债表考虑因素（例如净现金/债务状况以及法律/环境/养老金负债）。在英伟达公司(NVDA)的案例中，我们的公平价值估计区间上限为每股311美元，略高于截至本文撰写时NVDA股票交易价格的情况。请注意，未来几年，Nvidia公允价值估计范围的上限可能会增长到每股410美元以上，我们将在本文中讨论这一点。</blockquote> Investment Highlights<blockquote>投资亮点</blockquote> NVIDIA is a computer graphics company. Its business is based on two technologies: the graphics processing units ('GPUs') and the&nbsp;Tegra&nbsp;system-on-a-chip ('SoC') offering. GPUs are the&nbsp;engine&nbsp;of visual computing. Tegra processors incorporate multi-core GPUs and central processing units ('CPUs') together with audio and video capabilities, and are used in smartphones, tablets, and luxury automobiles.NVIDIA was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Santa Clara, California. Like many of its peers,NVIDIA relies on&nbsp;third-party foundries&nbsp;to produce the semiconductor components (or \"chips\") that it designs.<blockquote>英伟达是一家计算机图形公司。其业务基于两种技术：图形处理单元（“GPU”）和Tegra片上系统（“SoC”）产品。GPU是视觉计算的引擎。Tegra处理器将多核GPU和中央处理器（“CPU”）以及音频和视频功能结合在一起，用于智能手机、平板电脑和豪华汽车。NVIDIA成立于1993年，总部位于加利福尼亚州圣克拉拉。与许多同行一样，英伟达依赖第三方代工厂来生产其设计的半导体组件（或“芯片”）。</blockquote> Gaming and data centers have been key sources of revenue growth forNVIDIA as demand for its core GPU offerings surged higher in the wake of the coronavirus ('COVID-19') pandemic. During the first three quarters of fiscal 2022 (period ended&nbsp;October 31, 2021),NVIDIA's GAAP revenues grew by 65% year-over-year while its GAAP operating income more than doubled during this period. This strong showing was largely made possible through the stellar performance of its 'Gaming' and 'Data Center' business segments.<blockquote>游戏和数据中心一直是英伟达收入增长的主要来源，因为在冠状病毒（“新冠肺炎”）大流行之后，对其核心GPU产品的需求激增。2022财年前三季度（截至2021年10月31日），英伟达的GAAP收入同比增长65%，而GAAP营业收入在此期间增长了一倍多。这一强劲表现在很大程度上得益于其“游戏”和“数据中心”业务部门的出色表现。</blockquote> Looking ahead, management offered guidance for the fiscal fourth quarter in conjunction withNVIDIA's latest earnings update that indicated its strong financial performance is expected to continue going forward. Its high-end graphics rendering platform,NVIDIA RTX, is setting new standards in gaming technology.<blockquote>展望未来，管理层结合英伟达最新的收益更新提供了第四财季的指引，表明其强劲的财务业绩预计将继续下去。其高端图形渲染平台NVIDIA RTX正在树立游戏技术的新标准。</blockquote> NVIDIA is also making&nbsp;inroads&nbsp;in the \"omniverse\" space, its preferred way to refer to the digital worlds that the \"metaverse\" aims to create. These are still early days, though we appreciate the effortNVIDIA's management team is making as it concerns identifying growth opportunities with long legs.<blockquote>英伟达也在进军“omniverse”领域，这是它指代“元宇宙”旨在创建的数字世界的首选方式。尽管我们赞赏英伟达管理团队在寻找长腿增长机会方面所做的努力，但现在仍处于早期阶段。</blockquote> While its GPU offerings areNVIDIA's bread-and-butter, the company is working on rolling out a standalone CPU offering, the&nbsp;NVIDIA Grace CPU, which is geared towards data centers. This new offering was announced in April 2021 and is expected to be made available on a commercial basis in 2023. Please note both GPUs and CPUs are used in data centers, personal computers, and for a variety of other computing purposes. Expanding into the CPU market represents a massive growth opportunity forNVIDIA and this move is one of several reasons why we view the company's growth trajectory so favorably.<blockquote>虽然其GPU产品是Envidia的主要产品，但该公司正在努力推出一款独立的CPU产品，即面向数据中心的NVIDIA Grace CPU。这项新产品于2021年4月宣布，预计将于2023年投入商业使用。请注意，GPU和CPU都用于数据中心、个人计算机和各种其他计算目的。拓展CPU市场对Nvidia来说是一个巨大的增长机会，此举是我们如此看好该公司增长轨迹的几个原因之一。</blockquote> The forecasts for our enterprise cash flow model (which we will cover in this article) assumes double-digit annual revenue growth and meaningful margin expansion over the coming fiscal years. This forecast is underpinned byNVIDIA’s relentless focus on innovation, secular growth tailwinds, and its successes in the realm of gaming, data centers, autonomous driving,and AI. Should the firm stumble for any reason, its intrinsic value would face serious headwinds.<blockquote>我们的企业现金流模型（我们将在本文中介绍）的预测假设未来财年年收入将实现两位数的增长，利润率将大幅扩张。这一预测的基础是英伟达对创新、长期增长推动力及其在游戏、数据中心、自动驾驶和人工智能领域的成功。如果公司因任何原因陷入困境，其内在价值将面临严重的阻力。</blockquote> NVIDIA expects to be a significant player in autonomous driving. Hundreds of companies use its&nbsp;Drive AGX&nbsp;open computing platform, and the list includes many of the top names in next-gen car and truck manufacturing.NVIDIA tabs autonomous vehicles as a $60 billion&nbsp;opportunity&nbsp;by 2035.<blockquote>英伟达预计将成为自动驾驶领域的重要参与者。数百家公司使用其Drive AGX开放计算平台，其中包括下一代汽车和卡车制造领域的许多顶级公司。NVIDIA将自动驾驶汽车视为到2035年价值600亿美元的机遇。</blockquote> In April 2020,NVIDIA&nbsp;completed&nbsp;its ~$7 billion acquisition of Mellanox, bolstering its operations that cater to data centers.NVIDIA is in&nbsp;the process&nbsp;of acquiring Arm Limited (designer of semiconductor architecture) from SoftBank Group Corp (OTCPK:SFTBY) and SoftBank's Vision Fund in a transaction priced at ~$40 billion (with a ~$12 billion cash component), though antitrust hurdles&nbsp;remain&nbsp;and it is looking increasingly&nbsp;unlikely&nbsp;that the deal will go forward.<blockquote>2020年4月，NVIDIA完成了对Mellanox约70亿美元的收购，加强了其数据中心业务。NVIDIA正在从软银集团公司（OTCPK：SFTBY）和软银收购Arm Limited（半导体架构设计商）愿景基金的交易价格约为400亿美元（其中现金部分约为120亿美元），尽管反垄断障碍仍然存在，而且该交易似乎越来越不可能继续进行。</blockquote> Economic Profit Analysis<blockquote>经济效益分析</blockquote> The best measure of a firm's ability to create value for shareholders is expressed by comparing its return on invested capital ['ROIC'] with its weighted average cost of capital ['WACC']. The gap or difference between ROIC and WACC is called the firm's economic profit spread.NVIDIA has historically been a stellar generator of shareholder value and we expect that this will continue being the case going forward.<blockquote>衡量公司为股东创造价值能力的最佳方法是将其投资资本回报率[“ROIC”]与其加权平均资本成本[“WACC”]进行比较。ROIC和WACC之间的差距或差异称为公司的经济利润利差。NVIDIA历来是股东价值的杰出创造者，我们预计未来这种情况将继续下去。</blockquote> NVIDIA's 3-fiscal year&nbsp;historical return&nbsp;on invested capital (without goodwill) is 94.5%, which is above the estimate of its cost of capital of 9.8%. In the upcoming graphic down below, we show the probable path of its forecasted ROIC in the fiscal years ahead based on the estimated volatility of key drivers behind the measure. The solid grey line reflects the most likely outcome (our \"base\" case scenario), in our opinion, and represents the scenario that results in our fair value estimate. The blue dots represent our \"bull\" case scenario and the green dots represent our \"bear\" case scenario.<blockquote>英伟达3个财年的历史投资资本回报率（不含商誉）为94.5%，高于其资本成本9.8%的估计。在下图中，我们根据该指标背后关键驱动因素的估计波动性，显示了未来财年预测投资回报率的可能路径。灰色实线反映了我们认为最有可能的结果（我们的“基本”案例情景），并代表了导致我们公允价值估计的情景。蓝点代表我们的“牛市”情景，绿点代表我们的“熊市”情景。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df45d00b608333d9732ab8afeaaba4a2\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"480\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Image Shown: NVIDIA is a stellar generator of shareholder value as its forecasted ROIC, excluding goodwill, is expected to vastly exceed its estimated WACC over the coming fiscal years. Historically, NVIDIA's ROIC excluding goodwill has significantly outpaced its estimated WACC, indicating that in the past it has generated substantial shareholder value, but we are most interested in its future. Image Source: Valuentum<blockquote>如图所示：英伟达是股东价值的杰出创造者，因为其预测的投资回报率（不包括商誉）预计将在未来财年大大超过其估计的WACC。从历史上看，英伟达不包括商誉的投资回报率大大超过了其估计的WACC，这表明它在过去创造了巨大的股东价值，但我们最感兴趣的是它的未来。图片来源：Valuentum</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a76899e4ecec2cb399eb536f039a8d14\" tg-width=\"559\" tg-height=\"736\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Image Shown: An overview of how we calculated NVIDIA's estimated WACC. Image Source: Valuentum<blockquote>所示图片：我们如何计算NVIDIA预计WACC的概述。图片来源：Valuentum</blockquote> Cash Flow Analysis<blockquote>现金流量分析</blockquote> NVIDIA is a tremendous generator of free cash flow. From fiscal 2019-2021 (NVIDIA's fiscal year ends in late-January), the company generated ~$4.0 billion in annual free cash flow on average. In fiscal 2020 and fiscal 2021, asNVIDIA was building up cash to fund its aforementioned acquisition activities, the firm did not repurchase a meaningful amount of its stock. However, in fiscal 2019,NVIDIA repurchased $1.6 billion of its stock. The firm exited fiscal 2021 with $0.4 billion in run-rate dividend obligations.<blockquote>英伟达是自由现金流的巨大创造者。从2019-2021财年（英伟达的财年于1月下旬结束），该公司平均每年产生约40亿美元的自由现金流。在2020财年和2021财年，英伟达正在积累现金为上述收购活动提供资金，但该公司没有回购大量股票。然而，在2019财年，英伟达回购了16亿美元的股票。该公司在2021财年结束时有4亿美元的运行率股息义务。</blockquote> Its stellar free cash flow performance continued into fiscal 2022. During the first three quarters of the current fiscal year,NVIDIA generated $5.4 billion in free cash flow while spending $0.3 billion covering its dividend obligations. The firm continued to hold off on share buybacks during this period. At the end of October 2021,NVIDIA had a net cash position of $8.4 billion with no short-term debt on the books. We are huge fans ofNVIDIA's pristine balance sheet and balanced approached to capital allocation decisions.<blockquote>其出色的自由现金流表现持续到2022财年。在本财年的前三个季度，英伟达产生了54亿美元的自由现金流，同时花费了3亿美元来支付其股息义务。在此期间，该公司继续推迟股票回购。截至2021年10月底，英伟达的净现金头寸为84亿美元，账面上没有短期债务。我们非常喜欢英伟达原始的资产负债表和平衡的资本配置决策方法。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a33e177ba3b8979c4701cd8c7017c0f6\" tg-width=\"561\" tg-height=\"483\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Image Shown: NVIDIA has historically been a tremendous generator of free cash flow, and we forecast that will continue being the case going forward. Image Source: Valuentum<blockquote>如图所示：英伟达历来是自由现金流的巨大创造者，我们预测未来这种情况将继续下去。图片来源：Valuentum</blockquote> Valuation Analysis<blockquote>估值分析</blockquote> We thinkNVIDIA is worth $247 per share (under our base case scenario) with a fair value range of $183-$311 per share (the lower rung of our fair value estimate represents our bear case scenario and the upper rung represents our bull case scenario). The near-term operating forecasts we used in our enterprise cash flow models, including revenue and earnings forecasts, do not differ much from consensus estimates or management guidance.<blockquote>我们认为Nvidia的每股价值为247美元（在我们的基本情景下），公允价值范围为每股183美元至311美元（我们公允价值估计的下限代表我们的熊市情景，上限代表我们的牛市情景）。我们在企业现金流模型中使用的近期运营预测，包括收入和盈利预测，与共识估计或管理层指导没有太大差异。</blockquote> Our discounted cash flow models reflect a compound annual revenue growth rate of 24.7% during the next five full fiscal years, a pace that is higher than the firm's 3-fiscal year historical compound annual growth rate of 19.7%. Our models reflects a 5-fiscal year projected average operating margin of 49.2%, which is aboveNVIDIA's trailing 3-fiscal year average (in fiscal 2021,NVIDIA's GAAP operating margin stood at 43.6%).<blockquote>我们的贴现现金流模型反映了未来五个完整财年的复合年收入增长率为24.7%，高于该公司3个财年19.7%的历史复合年增长率。我们的模型反映了5个财年的预计平均营业利润率为49.2%，高于Vidia过去3个财年的平均水平（2021财年，NVIDIA的GAAP营业利润率为43.6%）。</blockquote> Beyond Year 5 (five full fiscal years from the end ofNVIDIA's latest fiscal year), we assume free cash flow will grow at an annual rate of 10.9% for the next 15 fiscal years and 3% in perpetuity. ForNVIDIA, we use a 9.8% weighted average cost of capital to discount future free cash flows. The coming graphic down below highlights the key valuation assumptions used in our base case scenario covering&nbsp;NVIDIA.<blockquote>超过第5年（从NVIDIA最新财年结束起的五个完整财年），我们假设自由现金流在未来15财年将以10.9%的年增长率增长，并永久增长3%。对于英伟达，我们使用9.8%的加权平均资本成本来贴现未来自由现金流。下图重点介绍了我们涵盖NVIDIA的基本案例中使用的关键估值假设。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ec17bc624989924f5e557d74e07b7f2\" tg-width=\"556\" tg-height=\"490\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Image Shown: An overview of the key valuation assumptions used in our cash flow model covering NVIDIA under our base case scenario. Image Source: Valuentum<blockquote>如图所示：在我们的基本情景下，我们涵盖NVIDIA的现金流模型中使用的关键估值假设概述。图片来源：Valuentum</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48f53155ec22cc97ef62fe0239d5930\" tg-width=\"548\" tg-height=\"505\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Image Shown: NVIDIA's long growth tail underpins why most of the intrinsic value of its equity comes from its forecasted free cash flows, discounted at the appropriate rate, during the Year 6+ period into perpetuity. Image Source: Valuentum<blockquote>如图所示：NVIDIA的长增长尾支撑了为什么其股权的大部分内在价值来自其预测的自由现金流，并在6年以上的时间内以适当的利率贴现。图片来源：Valuentum</blockquote> Please note thatNVIDIA could exceed the key valuation assumptions within our base case scenario. For instance, its revenue might grow at a faster pace than our cash flow model is assuming asNVIDIA pushes into the CPU space while powerful secular growth tailwinds underpin demand for its semiconductor offerings. Additionally,NVIDIA's operating margins could expand at a more robust pace than our cash flow models are assuming if the uplift from economies of scale and its immense pricing power outperforms.<blockquote>请注意，英伟达可能会超出我们基本情景中的关键估值假设。例如，其收入增长速度可能比我们的现金流模型假设的要快，因为英伟达进军CPU领域，而强大的长期增长推动力支撑了对其半导体产品的需求。此外，如果规模经济及其巨大定价能力的提升表现出色，英伟达的营业利润率可能会以比我们的现金流模型假设的更强劲的速度扩张。</blockquote> With this in mind, we like to provide a range of potential outcomes that take into the chance for a firm to outperform or underperform the key valuation assumptions used in our cash flow models. ShouldNVIDIA outperform, the top end of our fair value estimate range sits at $311 per share.<blockquote>考虑到这一点，我们希望提供一系列潜在结果，以考虑公司表现优于或低于我们现金流模型中使用的关键估值假设的机会。如果英伟达跑赢大盘，我们的公允价值估计范围的上限为每股311美元。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a77a92954fa4327f4f5d246ee8a84a8\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"331\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Image Shown: At the top end of our fair value estimate range, NVIDIA has an intrinsic value of $311 per share. Image Source: Valuentum<blockquote>如图所示：在我们公允价值估计范围的上限，NVIDIA的内在价值为每股311美元。图片来源：Valuentum</blockquote> Future Path of Fair Value<blockquote>公允价值的未来路径</blockquote> As time passes, companies generate cash flow and pay out cash to shareholders in the form of dividends. The upcoming graphic down below compares the firm's recent share price with the path ofNVIDIA's expected equity value per share over the next three fiscal years, assuming our long-term projections prove accurate. The range between the resulting downside fair value and upside fair value in Year 3 represents our best estimate of the value of the firm's shares three full fiscal years hence.<blockquote>久而久之，公司会产生现金流，并以股息的形式向股东支付现金。下图将该公司最近的股价与英伟达未来三个财年每股预期股权价值的路径进行了比较，假设我们的长期预测被证明是准确的。第三年产生的下行公允价值和上行公允价值之间的范围代表了我们对三个完整财年后公司股票价值的最佳估计。</blockquote> This range of potential outcomes is also subject to change over time, should our views on the firm's future cash flow potential change. The expected fair value of $327 per share in Year 3 represents our existing fair value per share of $247 increased at an annual rate of the firm's cost of equity less its dividend yield. The upside and downside ranges are derived in the same way, but from the upper and lower bounds of our fair value estimate range. ShouldNVIDIA outperform, its fair value estimate could grow to over $410 by Year 3.<blockquote>如果我们对公司未来现金流潜力的看法发生变化，这一系列潜在结果也会随着时间的推移而发生变化。第三年每股327美元的预期公允价值代表我们现有的每股公允价值247美元，按公司股本成本减去股息收益率的年率增长。上行和下行范围以相同的方式得出，但来自我们公允价值估计范围的上限和下限。如果Nvidia表现优于大盘，其公允价值估计可能会在第三年增长至410美元以上。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7bb37f5bbe479c8ce940639d804694f3\" tg-width=\"551\" tg-height=\"414\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Image Shown: We forecast that NVIDIA's fair value estimate will grow significantly over the coming fiscal years. Image Source: Valuentum<blockquote>如图所示：我们预测英伟达的公允价值估计将在未来几个财年大幅增长。图片来源：Valuentum</blockquote> Concluding Thoughts<blockquote>结束语</blockquote> ThoughNVIDIA's planned acquisition of Arm will probably not go through due to growing and sizable antitrust concerns,NVIDIA's growth outlook is still quite bright.NVIDIA has a fortress-like balance sheet, stellar free cash flow generating abilities, and has been growing like a weed in recent fiscal years. Powerful secular growth tailwinds, such as the proliferation of e-commerce, cloud computing, AI, and autonomous driving offerings all underpinNVIDIA's bright long-term growth outlook. Shares of NVDA yield a negligible amount as of this writing as management prefers to invest in the business and build up cash on hand to fund acquisition activities. Virtually all ofNVIDIA's upside comes from its capital appreciation potential.<blockquote>尽管由于日益严重的反垄断担忧，英伟达对Arm的收购计划可能不会通过，但英伟达的增长前景仍然相当光明。英伟达拥有堡垒般的资产负债表、出色的自由现金流产生能力，并且在最近的财政年度。强大的长期增长推动力，例如电子商务、云计算、人工智能和自动驾驶产品的激增，都支撑着英伟达光明的长期增长前景。截至撰写本文时，NVDA股票的收益可以忽略不计，因为管理层更愿意投资该业务并积累手头现金来为收购活动提供资金。英伟达几乎所有的上涨空间都来自于其资本增值潜力。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4476513-nvidia-nvda-stock-bright-growth-outlook\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4476513-nvidia-nvda-stock-bright-growth-outlook","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184640882","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe top end of our fair value estimate range for Nvidia Corporation, derived through our discounted free cash flow analysis process, sits at $311 per share.\nSeveral powerful secular growth tailwinds including the ongoing proliferation of e-commerce, cloud computing, AI, and autonomous driving operations underpin Nvidia's promising growth outlook.\nNvidia is a stellar free cash flow generator with a fortress-like balance sheet and balanced capital allocation priorities.\nWe think it is growing unlikely that Nvidia's planned purchase of Arm from SoftBank Group Corp will go through due to antitrust and other regulatory concerns seen around the world.\nNvidia's recent push into the CPU market on top of its dominant position in the GPU market further underpins why the firm's growth outlook appears so promising, in our view.\n\nserg3d/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nAs part of our investment analysis process, we perform a rigorous discounted cash-flow methodology that dives into the cash-flow-derived intrinsic worth of companies. This process is built around forecasting a firm's future free cash flows, discounting those future forecasted free cash flows at the appropriate rate, and then taking its balance sheet considerations (such as its net cash/debt position, and legal/environmental/pension liabilities) into account. In NVIDIA Corporation's (NVDA) case, the top end of our fair value estimate range sits at $311 per share, modestly above where shares of NVDA are trading at as of this writing. Please note that over the coming years, the top end ofNVIDIA's fair value estimate range could grow north of $410 per share, something we will cover in this article.\nInvestment Highlights\nNVIDIA is a computer graphics company. Its business is based on two technologies: the graphics processing units ('GPUs') and the Tegra system-on-a-chip ('SoC') offering. GPUs are the engine of visual computing. Tegra processors incorporate multi-core GPUs and central processing units ('CPUs') together with audio and video capabilities, and are used in smartphones, tablets, and luxury automobiles.NVIDIA was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Santa Clara, California. Like many of its peers,NVIDIA relies on third-party foundries to produce the semiconductor components (or \"chips\") that it designs.\nGaming and data centers have been key sources of revenue growth forNVIDIA as demand for its core GPU offerings surged higher in the wake of the coronavirus ('COVID-19') pandemic. During the first three quarters of fiscal 2022 (period ended October 31, 2021),NVIDIA's GAAP revenues grew by 65% year-over-year while its GAAP operating income more than doubled during this period. This strong showing was largely made possible through the stellar performance of its 'Gaming' and 'Data Center' business segments.\nLooking ahead, management offered guidance for the fiscal fourth quarter in conjunction withNVIDIA's latest earnings update that indicated its strong financial performance is expected to continue going forward. Its high-end graphics rendering platform,NVIDIA RTX, is setting new standards in gaming technology.\nNVIDIA is also making inroads in the \"omniverse\" space, its preferred way to refer to the digital worlds that the \"metaverse\" aims to create. These are still early days, though we appreciate the effortNVIDIA's management team is making as it concerns identifying growth opportunities with long legs.\nWhile its GPU offerings areNVIDIA's bread-and-butter, the company is working on rolling out a standalone CPU offering, the NVIDIA Grace CPU, which is geared towards data centers. This new offering was announced in April 2021 and is expected to be made available on a commercial basis in 2023. Please note both GPUs and CPUs are used in data centers, personal computers, and for a variety of other computing purposes. Expanding into the CPU market represents a massive growth opportunity forNVIDIA and this move is one of several reasons why we view the company's growth trajectory so favorably.\nThe forecasts for our enterprise cash flow model (which we will cover in this article) assumes double-digit annual revenue growth and meaningful margin expansion over the coming fiscal years. This forecast is underpinned byNVIDIA’s relentless focus on innovation, secular growth tailwinds, and its successes in the realm of gaming, data centers, autonomous driving,and AI. Should the firm stumble for any reason, its intrinsic value would face serious headwinds.\nNVIDIA expects to be a significant player in autonomous driving. Hundreds of companies use its Drive AGX open computing platform, and the list includes many of the top names in next-gen car and truck manufacturing.NVIDIA tabs autonomous vehicles as a $60 billion opportunity by 2035.\nIn April 2020,NVIDIA completed its ~$7 billion acquisition of Mellanox, bolstering its operations that cater to data centers.NVIDIA is in the process of acquiring Arm Limited (designer of semiconductor architecture) from SoftBank Group Corp (OTCPK:SFTBY) and SoftBank's Vision Fund in a transaction priced at ~$40 billion (with a ~$12 billion cash component), though antitrust hurdles remain and it is looking increasingly unlikely that the deal will go forward.\nEconomic Profit Analysis\nThe best measure of a firm's ability to create value for shareholders is expressed by comparing its return on invested capital ['ROIC'] with its weighted average cost of capital ['WACC']. The gap or difference between ROIC and WACC is called the firm's economic profit spread.NVIDIA has historically been a stellar generator of shareholder value and we expect that this will continue being the case going forward.\nNVIDIA's 3-fiscal year historical return on invested capital (without goodwill) is 94.5%, which is above the estimate of its cost of capital of 9.8%. In the upcoming graphic down below, we show the probable path of its forecasted ROIC in the fiscal years ahead based on the estimated volatility of key drivers behind the measure. The solid grey line reflects the most likely outcome (our \"base\" case scenario), in our opinion, and represents the scenario that results in our fair value estimate. The blue dots represent our \"bull\" case scenario and the green dots represent our \"bear\" case scenario.\nImage Shown: NVIDIA is a stellar generator of shareholder value as its forecasted ROIC, excluding goodwill, is expected to vastly exceed its estimated WACC over the coming fiscal years. Historically, NVIDIA's ROIC excluding goodwill has significantly outpaced its estimated WACC, indicating that in the past it has generated substantial shareholder value, but we are most interested in its future. Image Source: Valuentum\nImage Shown: An overview of how we calculated NVIDIA's estimated WACC. Image Source: Valuentum\nCash Flow Analysis\nNVIDIA is a tremendous generator of free cash flow. From fiscal 2019-2021 (NVIDIA's fiscal year ends in late-January), the company generated ~$4.0 billion in annual free cash flow on average. In fiscal 2020 and fiscal 2021, asNVIDIA was building up cash to fund its aforementioned acquisition activities, the firm did not repurchase a meaningful amount of its stock. However, in fiscal 2019,NVIDIA repurchased $1.6 billion of its stock. The firm exited fiscal 2021 with $0.4 billion in run-rate dividend obligations.\nIts stellar free cash flow performance continued into fiscal 2022. During the first three quarters of the current fiscal year,NVIDIA generated $5.4 billion in free cash flow while spending $0.3 billion covering its dividend obligations. The firm continued to hold off on share buybacks during this period. At the end of October 2021,NVIDIA had a net cash position of $8.4 billion with no short-term debt on the books. We are huge fans ofNVIDIA's pristine balance sheet and balanced approached to capital allocation decisions.\nImage Shown: NVIDIA has historically been a tremendous generator of free cash flow, and we forecast that will continue being the case going forward. Image Source: Valuentum\nValuation Analysis\nWe thinkNVIDIA is worth $247 per share (under our base case scenario) with a fair value range of $183-$311 per share (the lower rung of our fair value estimate represents our bear case scenario and the upper rung represents our bull case scenario). The near-term operating forecasts we used in our enterprise cash flow models, including revenue and earnings forecasts, do not differ much from consensus estimates or management guidance.\nOur discounted cash flow models reflect a compound annual revenue growth rate of 24.7% during the next five full fiscal years, a pace that is higher than the firm's 3-fiscal year historical compound annual growth rate of 19.7%. Our models reflects a 5-fiscal year projected average operating margin of 49.2%, which is aboveNVIDIA's trailing 3-fiscal year average (in fiscal 2021,NVIDIA's GAAP operating margin stood at 43.6%).\nBeyond Year 5 (five full fiscal years from the end ofNVIDIA's latest fiscal year), we assume free cash flow will grow at an annual rate of 10.9% for the next 15 fiscal years and 3% in perpetuity. ForNVIDIA, we use a 9.8% weighted average cost of capital to discount future free cash flows. The coming graphic down below highlights the key valuation assumptions used in our base case scenario covering NVIDIA.\nImage Shown: An overview of the key valuation assumptions used in our cash flow model covering NVIDIA under our base case scenario. Image Source: Valuentum\nImage Shown: NVIDIA's long growth tail underpins why most of the intrinsic value of its equity comes from its forecasted free cash flows, discounted at the appropriate rate, during the Year 6+ period into perpetuity. Image Source: Valuentum\nPlease note thatNVIDIA could exceed the key valuation assumptions within our base case scenario. For instance, its revenue might grow at a faster pace than our cash flow model is assuming asNVIDIA pushes into the CPU space while powerful secular growth tailwinds underpin demand for its semiconductor offerings. Additionally,NVIDIA's operating margins could expand at a more robust pace than our cash flow models are assuming if the uplift from economies of scale and its immense pricing power outperforms.\nWith this in mind, we like to provide a range of potential outcomes that take into the chance for a firm to outperform or underperform the key valuation assumptions used in our cash flow models. ShouldNVIDIA outperform, the top end of our fair value estimate range sits at $311 per share.\nImage Shown: At the top end of our fair value estimate range, NVIDIA has an intrinsic value of $311 per share. Image Source: Valuentum\nFuture Path of Fair Value\nAs time passes, companies generate cash flow and pay out cash to shareholders in the form of dividends. The upcoming graphic down below compares the firm's recent share price with the path ofNVIDIA's expected equity value per share over the next three fiscal years, assuming our long-term projections prove accurate. The range between the resulting downside fair value and upside fair value in Year 3 represents our best estimate of the value of the firm's shares three full fiscal years hence.\nThis range of potential outcomes is also subject to change over time, should our views on the firm's future cash flow potential change. The expected fair value of $327 per share in Year 3 represents our existing fair value per share of $247 increased at an annual rate of the firm's cost of equity less its dividend yield. The upside and downside ranges are derived in the same way, but from the upper and lower bounds of our fair value estimate range. ShouldNVIDIA outperform, its fair value estimate could grow to over $410 by Year 3.\nImage Shown: We forecast that NVIDIA's fair value estimate will grow significantly over the coming fiscal years. Image Source: Valuentum\nConcluding Thoughts\nThoughNVIDIA's planned acquisition of Arm will probably not go through due to growing and sizable antitrust concerns,NVIDIA's growth outlook is still quite bright.NVIDIA has a fortress-like balance sheet, stellar free cash flow generating abilities, and has been growing like a weed in recent fiscal years. Powerful secular growth tailwinds, such as the proliferation of e-commerce, cloud computing, AI, and autonomous driving offerings all underpinNVIDIA's bright long-term growth outlook. Shares of NVDA yield a negligible amount as of this writing as management prefers to invest in the business and build up cash on hand to fund acquisition activities. Virtually all ofNVIDIA's upside comes from its capital appreciation potential.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2864,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":["CASH"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}