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2022-03-21

Stock Trading during ‘March Madness’ Is Not a Slam Dunk and the Reason May Surprise You<blockquote>“疯狂三月”期间的股票交易并非一帆风顺，原因可能会让您感到惊讶</blockquote>

If only we were better at keeping our emotions from influencing our investment decisionsGetty Images

Stock Trading during ‘March Madness’ Is Not a Slam Dunk and the Reason May Surprise You<blockquote>“疯狂三月”期间的股票交易并非一帆风顺，原因可能会让您感到惊讶</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":637036951,"tweetId":"637036951","gmtCreate":1647793535294,"gmtModify":1647793535519,"author":{"id":3579910050997707,"idStr":"3579910050997707","authorId":3579910050997707,"authorIdStr":"3579910050997707","name":"Lim8558","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27d2b9122c7c618a7a6a381966ec4ef7","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":14,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>L</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>L</body></html>","text":"L","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/637036951","repostId":1130885535,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1130885535","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1647740423,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1130885535?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-03-20 09:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stock Trading during ‘March Madness’ Is Not a Slam Dunk and the Reason May Surprise You<blockquote>“疯狂三月”期间的股票交易并非一帆风顺，原因可能会让您感到惊讶</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130885535","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"If only we were better at keeping our emotions from influencing our investment decisionsGetty Images","content":"<html><head></head><body>If only we were better at keeping our emotions from influencing our investment decisions<blockquote><html><head></head><body>如果我们能更好地防止情绪影响我们的投资决策就好了</body></html></blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ed05eb1ac1242f9beaf9170fc0c9b3f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"419\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Getty Images<blockquote>盖蒂图片</blockquote>You might want to avoid trading stocks during this year’s NCAA “March Madness” men’s basketball tournament, which began earlier this week and lasts until Apr. 4. That’s because researchers have found that during widely followed sporting events, enough investors act irrationally that the market’s performance is below average.<blockquote>你可能想避免在今年的NCAA“疯狂三月”男子篮球锦标赛期间交易股票，该锦标赛于本周早些时候开始，一直持续到4月4日。这是因为研究人员发现，在广泛关注的体育赛事期间，有足够多的投资者行为非理性，导致市场表现低于平均水平。</blockquote>The study that documented this pattern appeared some years ago in the Journal of Finance. Entitled “Sports Sentiment and Stock Returns,” its authors are finance professors Alex Edmans of the London Business School, Diego Garcia of the University of Colorado at Boulder and Oyvind Norli of the BI Norwegian Business School.<blockquote>记录这种模式的研究几年前发表在《金融杂志》上。该书题为“体育情绪和股票回报”，作者是伦敦商学院的金融学教授Alex Edmans、科罗拉多大学博尔德分校的Diego Garcia和BI挪威商学院的Oyvind Norli。</blockquote>Though the researchers focused primarily on World Cup soccer matches, they also studied cricket, rugby and basketball tournaments. They found that a country’s stock market performed significantly worse than average following losses by its national team in international competitions.<blockquote>虽然研究人员主要关注世界杯足球赛，但他们也研究了板球、橄榄球和篮球比赛。他们发现，在国家队在国际比赛中失利后，一个国家的股市表现明显低于平均水平。</blockquote>You might think that these negative effects of losses would be cancelled by a correspondingly positive stock market impact in countries whose teams were victorious. But the researchers did not find such evidence, probably because a win merely means that a country’s team continues in the competition while a loss means the country is out altogether. As a result, losing teams’ fans are likely to be more dejected than winning teams’ fans will be elated.<blockquote>你可能会认为，在球队获胜的国家，这些损失的负面影响会被相应的积极股市影响所抵消。但研究人员没有发现这样的证据，可能是因为获胜仅仅意味着一个国家的球队继续参加比赛，而失败则意味着这个国家完全出局。因此，输球球队的球迷可能会比获胜球队的球迷更加沮丧。</blockquote>This asymmetry between winning and losing causes the global stock market to be weaker as a widely followed sports match such as the World Cup takes place. This broad impact was confirmed by another academic study, this one by Guy Kaplanski of the Bar-Ilan University in Israel and Haim Levy of the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. They found that global stock markets experience below-average returns during World Cup.<blockquote>这种输赢之间的不对称导致全球股市在世界杯等广受关注的体育比赛举行时走软。以色列Bar-Ilan大学的Guy Kaplanski和耶路撒冷希伯来大学的Haim Levy的另一项学术研究证实了这种广泛的影响。他们发现，世界杯期间全球股市的回报率低于平均水平。</blockquote>Neither of these studies focused on the March Madness tournament. But the same psychological forces are likely ingrained in people, regardless, and if so there should be an above-average amount of selling pressure in the U.S. stock market between now and early April.<blockquote>这两项研究都没有关注三月疯狂锦标赛。但无论如何，同样的心理力量可能在人们心中根深蒂固，如果是这样，从现在到4月初，美国股市的抛售压力应该会高于平均水平。</blockquote>To be sure, neither set of researchers who authored these studies is recommending that you should go completely to cash during big sports competitions. The magnitude of the stock market’s below-average performance during those competitions is not great enough to overcome transaction costs — especially if you take taxes into account. Plus, their findings reflect an average over hundreds of games, and there’s no guarantee that the market during any one competition will in fact be a below-average performer.<blockquote>可以肯定的是，撰写这些研究的两组研究人员都没有建议你在大型体育比赛中完全用现金。在这些竞争中，股市低于平均水平的表现不足以克服交易成本——特别是如果你考虑到税收的话。此外，他们的发现反映了数百场比赛的平均值，不能保证任何一场比赛的市场实际上会低于平均水平。</blockquote>Consider the Nasdaq Composite’s performance during all March Madness competitions since 2000. I calculate that its average return was 0.35%, versus an average gain of 0.48% across all three-week periods over the last two decades. It’s difficult to imagine how you could exploit that difference into much of a profit, however statistically significant it may be.<blockquote>想想自2000年以来纳斯达克综合指数在所有疯狂三月比赛中的表现。我计算出其平均回报率为0.35%，而过去二十年所有三周期间的平均涨幅为0.48%。很难想象你如何利用这种差异获得大量利润，无论它在统计上有多重要。</blockquote>Emotions matter<blockquote>情绪很重要</blockquote>But that’s not the point of these research studies. The broader implication of the research is to remind us, yet again, how difficult it is to keep our emotions from influencing our investment decisions. It wouldn’t otherwise even occur to us that, however depressed we are after our favorite team losses, our despondency could affect which stocks we think are worth buying or selling.<blockquote>但这并不是这些研究的重点。这项研究更广泛的含义是再次提醒我们，不让我们的情绪影响我们的投资决策是多么困难。否则，我们根本不会想到，尽管我们在最喜欢的球队输掉比赛后感到沮丧，但我们的沮丧情绪会影响我们认为哪些股票值得购买或出售。</blockquote>But it very much could. In fact, behavioral finance literature is filled with such examples. I’ll mention just one that is relevant to this week: Researchers have found that stock market returns around the world tend to be below-average on the Monday following shifts to daylight savings time. The likely cause, according to the researchers, is that on such Mondays we are “weighed down by weariness, fighting lethargy, and perhaps even facing despondency.”<blockquote>但很有可能。事实上，行为金融学文献中充满了这样的例子。我只提一个与本周相关的问题：研究人员发现，在转向夏令时后的周一，世界各地的股市回报率往往低于平均水平。根据研究人员的说法，可能的原因是，在这样的星期一，我们“被疲劳压垮，与昏睡作斗争，甚至可能面临沮丧”。</blockquote>This past Monday was the day after this year’s shift to daylight savings time, and the S&amp;P 500 fell by 0.7%.<blockquote>刚刚过去的本周一是今年转向夏令时的第二天，标普500下跌了0.7%。</blockquote></body></html><blockquote></blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stock Trading during ‘March Madness’ Is Not a Slam Dunk and the Reason May Surprise You<blockquote>“疯狂三月”期间的股票交易并非一帆风顺，原因可能会让您感到惊讶</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStock Trading during ‘March Madness’ Is Not a Slam Dunk and the Reason May Surprise You<blockquote>“疯狂三月”期间的股票交易并非一帆风顺，原因可能会让您感到惊讶</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2022-03-20 09:40\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body>If only we were better at keeping our emotions from influencing our investment decisions<blockquote><html><head></head><body>如果我们能更好地防止情绪影响我们的投资决策就好了</body></html></blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ed05eb1ac1242f9beaf9170fc0c9b3f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"419\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Getty Images<blockquote>盖蒂图片</blockquote>You might want to avoid trading stocks during this year’s NCAA “March Madness” men’s basketball tournament, which began earlier this week and lasts until Apr. 4. That’s because researchers have found that during widely followed sporting events, enough investors act irrationally that the market’s performance is below average.<blockquote>你可能想避免在今年的NCAA“疯狂三月”男子篮球锦标赛期间交易股票，该锦标赛于本周早些时候开始，一直持续到4月4日。这是因为研究人员发现，在广泛关注的体育赛事期间，有足够多的投资者行为非理性，导致市场表现低于平均水平。</blockquote>The study that documented this pattern appeared some years ago in the Journal of Finance. Entitled “Sports Sentiment and Stock Returns,” its authors are finance professors Alex Edmans of the London Business School, Diego Garcia of the University of Colorado at Boulder and Oyvind Norli of the BI Norwegian Business School.<blockquote>记录这种模式的研究几年前发表在《金融杂志》上。该书题为“体育情绪和股票回报”，作者是伦敦商学院的金融学教授Alex Edmans、科罗拉多大学博尔德分校的Diego Garcia和BI挪威商学院的Oyvind Norli。</blockquote>Though the researchers focused primarily on World Cup soccer matches, they also studied cricket, rugby and basketball tournaments. They found that a country’s stock market performed significantly worse than average following losses by its national team in international competitions.<blockquote>虽然研究人员主要关注世界杯足球赛，但他们也研究了板球、橄榄球和篮球比赛。他们发现，在国家队在国际比赛中失利后，一个国家的股市表现明显低于平均水平。</blockquote>You might think that these negative effects of losses would be cancelled by a correspondingly positive stock market impact in countries whose teams were victorious. But the researchers did not find such evidence, probably because a win merely means that a country’s team continues in the competition while a loss means the country is out altogether. As a result, losing teams’ fans are likely to be more dejected than winning teams’ fans will be elated.<blockquote>你可能会认为，在球队获胜的国家，这些损失的负面影响会被相应的积极股市影响所抵消。但研究人员没有发现这样的证据，可能是因为获胜仅仅意味着一个国家的球队继续参加比赛，而失败则意味着这个国家完全出局。因此，输球球队的球迷可能会比获胜球队的球迷更加沮丧。</blockquote>This asymmetry between winning and losing causes the global stock market to be weaker as a widely followed sports match such as the World Cup takes place. This broad impact was confirmed by another academic study, this one by Guy Kaplanski of the Bar-Ilan University in Israel and Haim Levy of the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. They found that global stock markets experience below-average returns during World Cup.<blockquote>这种输赢之间的不对称导致全球股市在世界杯等广受关注的体育比赛举行时走软。以色列Bar-Ilan大学的Guy Kaplanski和耶路撒冷希伯来大学的Haim Levy的另一项学术研究证实了这种广泛的影响。他们发现，世界杯期间全球股市的回报率低于平均水平。</blockquote>Neither of these studies focused on the March Madness tournament. But the same psychological forces are likely ingrained in people, regardless, and if so there should be an above-average amount of selling pressure in the U.S. stock market between now and early April.<blockquote>这两项研究都没有关注三月疯狂锦标赛。但无论如何，同样的心理力量可能在人们心中根深蒂固，如果是这样，从现在到4月初，美国股市的抛售压力应该会高于平均水平。</blockquote>To be sure, neither set of researchers who authored these studies is recommending that you should go completely to cash during big sports competitions. The magnitude of the stock market’s below-average performance during those competitions is not great enough to overcome transaction costs — especially if you take taxes into account. Plus, their findings reflect an average over hundreds of games, and there’s no guarantee that the market during any one competition will in fact be a below-average performer.<blockquote>可以肯定的是，撰写这些研究的两组研究人员都没有建议你在大型体育比赛中完全用现金。在这些竞争中，股市低于平均水平的表现不足以克服交易成本——特别是如果你考虑到税收的话。此外，他们的发现反映了数百场比赛的平均值，不能保证任何一场比赛的市场实际上会低于平均水平。</blockquote>Consider the Nasdaq Composite’s performance during all March Madness competitions since 2000. I calculate that its average return was 0.35%, versus an average gain of 0.48% across all three-week periods over the last two decades. It’s difficult to imagine how you could exploit that difference into much of a profit, however statistically significant it may be.<blockquote>想想自2000年以来纳斯达克综合指数在所有疯狂三月比赛中的表现。我计算出其平均回报率为0.35%，而过去二十年所有三周期间的平均涨幅为0.48%。很难想象你如何利用这种差异获得大量利润，无论它在统计上有多重要。</blockquote>Emotions matter<blockquote>情绪很重要</blockquote>But that’s not the point of these research studies. The broader implication of the research is to remind us, yet again, how difficult it is to keep our emotions from influencing our investment decisions. It wouldn’t otherwise even occur to us that, however depressed we are after our favorite team losses, our despondency could affect which stocks we think are worth buying or selling.<blockquote>但这并不是这些研究的重点。这项研究更广泛的含义是再次提醒我们，不让我们的情绪影响我们的投资决策是多么困难。否则，我们根本不会想到，尽管我们在最喜欢的球队输掉比赛后感到沮丧，但我们的沮丧情绪会影响我们认为哪些股票值得购买或出售。</blockquote>But it very much could. In fact, behavioral finance literature is filled with such examples. I’ll mention just one that is relevant to this week: Researchers have found that stock market returns around the world tend to be below-average on the Monday following shifts to daylight savings time. The likely cause, according to the researchers, is that on such Mondays we are “weighed down by weariness, fighting lethargy, and perhaps even facing despondency.”<blockquote>但很有可能。事实上，行为金融学文献中充满了这样的例子。我只提一个与本周相关的问题：研究人员发现，在转向夏令时后的周一，世界各地的股市回报率往往低于平均水平。根据研究人员的说法，可能的原因是，在这样的星期一，我们“被疲劳压垮，与昏睡作斗争，甚至可能面临沮丧”。</blockquote>This past Monday was the day after this year’s shift to daylight savings time, and the S&amp;P 500 fell by 0.7%.<blockquote>刚刚过去的本周一是今年转向夏令时的第二天，标普500下跌了0.7%。</blockquote></body></html><blockquote></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-trading-during-march-madness-is-not-a-slam-dunk-and-the-reason-may-surprise-you-11647563671?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-trading-during-march-madness-is-not-a-slam-dunk-and-the-reason-may-surprise-you-11647563671?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130885535","content_text":"If only we were better at keeping our emotions from influencing our investment decisionsGetty ImagesYou might want to avoid trading stocks during this year’s NCAA “March Madness” men’s basketball tournament, which began earlier this week and lasts until Apr. 4. That’s because researchers have found that during widely followed sporting events, enough investors act irrationally that the market’s performance is below average.The study that documented this pattern appeared some years ago in the Journal of Finance. Entitled “Sports Sentiment and Stock Returns,” its authors are finance professors Alex Edmans of the London Business School, Diego Garcia of the University of Colorado at Boulder and Oyvind Norli of the BI Norwegian Business School.Though the researchers focused primarily on World Cup soccer matches, they also studied cricket, rugby and basketball tournaments. They found that a country’s stock market performed significantly worse than average following losses by its national team in international competitions.You might think that these negative effects of losses would be cancelled by a correspondingly positive stock market impact in countries whose teams were victorious. But the researchers did not find such evidence, probably because a win merely means that a country’s team continues in the competition while a loss means the country is out altogether. As a result, losing teams’ fans are likely to be more dejected than winning teams’ fans will be elated.This asymmetry between winning and losing causes the global stock market to be weaker as a widely followed sports match such as the World Cup takes place. This broad impact was confirmed by another academic study, this one by Guy Kaplanski of the Bar-Ilan University in Israel and Haim Levy of the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. They found that global stock markets experience below-average returns during World Cup.Neither of these studies focused on the March Madness tournament. But the same psychological forces are likely ingrained in people, regardless, and if so there should be an above-average amount of selling pressure in the U.S. stock market between now and early April.To be sure, neither set of researchers who authored these studies is recommending that you should go completely to cash during big sports competitions. The magnitude of the stock market’s below-average performance during those competitions is not great enough to overcome transaction costs — especially if you take taxes into account. Plus, their findings reflect an average over hundreds of games, and there’s no guarantee that the market during any one competition will in fact be a below-average performer.Consider the Nasdaq Composite’s performance during all March Madness competitions since 2000. I calculate that its average return was 0.35%, versus an average gain of 0.48% across all three-week periods over the last two decades. It’s difficult to imagine how you could exploit that difference into much of a profit, however statistically significant it may be.Emotions matterBut that’s not the point of these research studies. The broader implication of the research is to remind us, yet again, how difficult it is to keep our emotions from influencing our investment decisions. It wouldn’t otherwise even occur to us that, however depressed we are after our favorite team losses, our despondency could affect which stocks we think are worth buying or selling.But it very much could. In fact, behavioral finance literature is filled with such examples. I’ll mention just one that is relevant to this week: Researchers have found that stock market returns around the world tend to be below-average on the Monday following shifts to daylight savings time. The likely cause, according to the researchers, is that on such Mondays we are “weighed down by weariness, fighting lethargy, and perhaps even facing despondency.”This past Monday was the day after this year’s shift to daylight savings time, and the S&P 500 fell by 0.7%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3707,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}