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2022-01-24

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Apple Stock: How It Could Reach $5 Trillion By 2025<blockquote>苹果股票：如何到 2025 年达到 5 万亿美元</blockquote>

AAPL has failed to stay above the $3 trillion valuation mark, but it could reach well past it in a f

Apple Stock: How It Could Reach $5 Trillion By 2025<blockquote>苹果股票：如何到 2025 年达到 5 万亿美元</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":630540480,"tweetId":"630540480","gmtCreate":1642998622750,"gmtModify":1642998622882,"author":{"id":4088149740978250,"idStr":"4088149740978250","authorId":4088149740978250,"authorIdStr":"4088149740978250","name":"Afrinbanu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61df4dd897beb5ddf10fd20887f3626c","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":8,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>[财迷]&nbsp;</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>[财迷]&nbsp;</body></html>","text":"[财迷]","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/630540480","repostId":1157407942,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1157407942","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1642993691,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1157407942?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-01-24 11:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Stock: How It Could Reach $5 Trillion By 2025<blockquote>苹果股票：如何到 2025 年达到 5 万亿美元</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157407942","media":"TheStreet","summary":"AAPL has failed to stay above the $3 trillion valuation mark, but it could reach well past it in a f","content":"<html><head></head><body>AAPL has failed to stay above the $3 trillion valuation mark, but it could reach well past it in a few years. In fact, I think that Apple stock might be worth $5 trillion by 2025.<blockquote><html><head></head><body>苹果公司的估值未能保持在 3 万亿美元以上，但几年后可能会远远超过这一水平。事实上，我认为到 2025 年，苹果股票的价值可能达到 5 万亿美元。</body></html></blockquote>Apple stock has failed to stay above the $3 trillion market cap by any longer than a day or two. But this is not to say that share value can not climb substantially above these levels in the next four years.<blockquote>苹果股票的市值未能保持在 3 万亿美元以上超过一两天。但这并不是说股价在未来四年内不能大幅攀升至这些水平之上。</blockquote>In fact, I believe that Apple could be worth $ 5 trillion by then. Here is how I see the journey unfolding through the end of 2025.<blockquote>事实上，我相信到那时苹果可能价值5万亿美元。以下是我对2025年底旅程的看法。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a182a349bbd4ca16a13dace221ec341e\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"827\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Figure 1: Apple Stock: It Could Reach $5 Trillion By 2025<blockquote>图 1：苹果股票：到 2025 年可能达到 5 万亿美元</blockquote>AAPL: $5 trillion around the corner<blockquote>AAPL：5万亿美元即将到来</blockquote>The number “5 trillion” may sound a bit too large to our limited human brains that are not used to dealing with such figures. Also, considering that Apple stock is worth around $2.8 trillion today, the near doubling of the market cap seems a bit aggressive over such a short period of time.<blockquote>对于我们有限的人类大脑来说，“5 万亿 ”这个数字可能听起来有点太大了，因为我们不习惯处理这样的数字。此外，考虑到苹果股票目前的价值约为 2.8 万亿美元，市值在如此短的时间内翻了一番似乎有点激进。</blockquote>But for AAPL to get to $5 trillion in value, its market cap would need to “only” rise by about 15% compounded annually through the end of 2025 (the math: $2.8 trillion times 1.15 to the power of 4 years), or about 75% cumulative. Does this rate of growth sound unrealistic?<blockquote>但要使苹果公司的市值达到 5 万亿美元，到 2025 年底，其市值 “只 ”每年复合增长约 15%（数学计算：2.8 万亿美元乘以 1.15 的 4 年次方），即累计增长约 75%。这个增长率听起来不现实吗？</blockquote>Glass half empty<blockquote>半空玻璃杯</blockquote>The more pessimistic investor might say “no way!” Apple stock has already climbed 550% over the past five years alone, with annual peaks of 89% in 2019 and 82% in 2020 (see below). It did so, in part, due to lower interest rates and the tailwinds of the pandemic-era, stay-at-home consumer trends. Both will have been left in the rearview mirror by the end of 2022.<blockquote>更悲观的投资者可能会说 “不可能!”仅在过去五年中，苹果股价就已经上涨了 550%，2019 年的年度峰值为 89%，2020 年为 82%（见下文）。它这样做的部分原因是较低的利率和疫情时代的顺风，即呆在家里的消费趋势。到 2022 年底，两者都将被搁置一旁。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d6d76e0bfe5c508a69aacb9c74814ba\" tg-width=\"837\" tg-height=\"649\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Figure 2: Apple&#39;s porfolio growth and annual returns.<blockquote>图2：苹果的投资组合增长和年回报率。</blockquote>Glass half full<blockquote>玻璃杯半满</blockquote>But the more optimistic investor may see a different path forward. From a historical perspective, Apple stock has produced annual returns that are substantially better than the S&amp;P 500’s over a long period: 33% vs. the broad market’s 11% since the start of the iPhone era.<blockquote>但更乐观的投资者可能会看到不同的前进道路。从历史角度来看，苹果股票的年回报率在很长一段时间内都大大好于标普500：自 iPhone 时代开始以来，为 33%，而大盘的年回报率为 11%。</blockquote>Because I am looking four years into the future through the end of 2025, it helps to analyze AAPL’s rolling four-year performance. Since 2007, when the iPhone was introduced, AAPL’s market cap climbed an average of 315% over any given four-year stretch (median 135%). This would be more than enough to send Apple stock well past $5 trillion by 2025.<blockquote>因为我展望未来四年，到 2025 年底，所以分析 AAPL 四年的滚动业绩很有帮助。自 2007 年推出 iPhone 以来，苹果公司的市值在任何四年内平均攀升了 315%（中位数为 135%）。到 2025 年，这足以让苹果股票远远超过 5 万亿美元。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d025e76441a7722d110a5972c182abd4\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"555\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Figure 3: AAPL&#39;s Rolling 4-year market cap growth (est.).<blockquote>图 3：AAPL 的滚动 4 年市值增长（估计。）.</blockquote>What could make it happen<blockquote>什么能让它发生</blockquote>Of course, past results are not a guarantee of future performance. Apple’s market cap managed to grow aggressively over the last several years because it had plenty of room to do so. Today, Apple is already the most valuable company in the world.<blockquote>当然，过去的成绩并不能保证未来的表现。苹果的市值在过去几年中实现了强劲增长，因为它有足够的空间这样做。今天，苹果已经是世界上最有价值的公司。</blockquote>So, for $5 trillion to happen, the Cupertino company would need growth catalysts. Luckily for its shareholders, Apple has plenty of potential candidates.<blockquote>因此，为了实现 5 万亿美元的目标，这家库比蒂诺公司需要增长催化剂。对股东来说幸运的是，苹果有很多潜在的候选人。</blockquote>The first is increased adoption of existing technology: smartphones, tablets, wearables and associated services, like streaming subscriptions and in-app purchases. While the US and Europe are more mature markets in which Apple is already a dominant force, developing markets offer much better growth prospects — see below.<blockquote>首先是增加对现有技术的采用：智能手机、平板电脑、可穿戴设备和相关服务，如流媒体订阅和应用内购买。虽然美国和欧洲是更成熟的市场，苹果已经是其中的主导力量，但发展中市场提供了更好的增长前景——见下文。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45801a6a31a965eb3e194b237097ef12\" tg-width=\"919\" tg-height=\"518\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Figure 4: Smartphones market - growth rate by region (2021-2026).<blockquote>图4：智能手机市场-按地区划分的增长率（2021-2026）。</blockquote>The other growth route is through new technologies. This is the most likely path to $5 trillion by 2025, in my view.<blockquote>另一条增长途径是通过新技术。在我看来，这是到 2025 年达到 5 万亿美元的最有可能途径。</blockquote>Mixed reality devices will probably be a key building block of the metaverse.Morgan Stanley’s research team thinks that the yet-to-be-released Apple Glass will be the game changer that ultimately sparks the new internet 3.0 revolution.<blockquote>摩根士丹利的研究团队认为，尚未发布的苹果眼镜将成为游戏规则的改变者，最终引发新的互联网3.0革命。</blockquote>Then, a bit later, the Cupertino giant is likely to launch the Apple Car — its official entry into the autonomous and electric vehicle space. Wedbush’s Dan Ives has chimed in on the opportunity, and he even quantified it during our conversation last year:<blockquote>然后，过了一会儿，这家库比蒂诺巨头可能会推出苹果汽车——正式进入自动驾驶和电动汽车领域。韦德布什的丹-艾夫斯（Dan Ives）也谈到了这个机会，他甚至在去年的谈话中对这个机会进行了量化：</blockquote>“When I look at the Apple Car, it’s not a matter of if, it’s a matter of when. I believe they are continuing to build a vision, the infrastructure, they are looking for partnerships on the battery side. […] They are not going to miss out on the $5 trillion green tidal wave.”The combination of historical precedence in share price movements and growth opportunities in “old” and new technologies lead me to believe that Apple stock could, in fact, be worth $5 trillion in just a few years.<blockquote>“当我审视苹果汽车时，这不是一个是否的问题，而是一个什么时候的问题。我相信他们正在继续构建愿景、基础设施，他们正在寻找电池方面的合作伙伴。[.]他们不会错过 5 万亿美元的绿色浪潮。股价变动的历史先例和 “旧 ”技术和新技术的增长机会相结合，让我相信苹果的股票实际上可能在短短几年内价值 5 万亿美元。</blockquote></body></html><blockquote></blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock: How It Could Reach $5 Trillion By 2025<blockquote>苹果股票：如何到 2025 年达到 5 万亿美元</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock: How It Could Reach $5 Trillion By 2025<blockquote>苹果股票：如何到 2025 年达到 5 万亿美元</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nTheStreet2022-01-24 11:08\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body>AAPL has failed to stay above the $3 trillion valuation mark, but it could reach well past it in a few years. In fact, I think that Apple stock might be worth $5 trillion by 2025.<blockquote><html><head></head><body>苹果公司的估值未能保持在 3 万亿美元以上，但几年后可能会远远超过这一水平。事实上，我认为到 2025 年，苹果股票的价值可能达到 5 万亿美元。</body></html></blockquote>Apple stock has failed to stay above the $3 trillion market cap by any longer than a day or two. But this is not to say that share value can not climb substantially above these levels in the next four years.<blockquote>苹果股票的市值未能保持在 3 万亿美元以上超过一两天。但这并不是说股价在未来四年内不能大幅攀升至这些水平之上。</blockquote>In fact, I believe that Apple could be worth $ 5 trillion by then. Here is how I see the journey unfolding through the end of 2025.<blockquote>事实上，我相信到那时苹果可能价值5万亿美元。以下是我对2025年底旅程的看法。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a182a349bbd4ca16a13dace221ec341e\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"827\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Figure 1: Apple Stock: It Could Reach $5 Trillion By 2025<blockquote>图 1：苹果股票：到 2025 年可能达到 5 万亿美元</blockquote>AAPL: $5 trillion around the corner<blockquote>AAPL：5万亿美元即将到来</blockquote>The number “5 trillion” may sound a bit too large to our limited human brains that are not used to dealing with such figures. Also, considering that Apple stock is worth around $2.8 trillion today, the near doubling of the market cap seems a bit aggressive over such a short period of time.<blockquote>对于我们有限的人类大脑来说，“5 万亿 ”这个数字可能听起来有点太大了，因为我们不习惯处理这样的数字。此外，考虑到苹果股票目前的价值约为 2.8 万亿美元，市值在如此短的时间内翻了一番似乎有点激进。</blockquote>But for AAPL to get to $5 trillion in value, its market cap would need to “only” rise by about 15% compounded annually through the end of 2025 (the math: $2.8 trillion times 1.15 to the power of 4 years), or about 75% cumulative. Does this rate of growth sound unrealistic?<blockquote>但要使苹果公司的市值达到 5 万亿美元，到 2025 年底，其市值 “只 ”每年复合增长约 15%（数学计算：2.8 万亿美元乘以 1.15 的 4 年次方），即累计增长约 75%。这个增长率听起来不现实吗？</blockquote>Glass half empty<blockquote>半空玻璃杯</blockquote>The more pessimistic investor might say “no way!” Apple stock has already climbed 550% over the past five years alone, with annual peaks of 89% in 2019 and 82% in 2020 (see below). It did so, in part, due to lower interest rates and the tailwinds of the pandemic-era, stay-at-home consumer trends. Both will have been left in the rearview mirror by the end of 2022.<blockquote>更悲观的投资者可能会说 “不可能!”仅在过去五年中，苹果股价就已经上涨了 550%，2019 年的年度峰值为 89%，2020 年为 82%（见下文）。它这样做的部分原因是较低的利率和疫情时代的顺风，即呆在家里的消费趋势。到 2022 年底，两者都将被搁置一旁。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d6d76e0bfe5c508a69aacb9c74814ba\" tg-width=\"837\" tg-height=\"649\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Figure 2: Apple&#39;s porfolio growth and annual returns.<blockquote>图2：苹果的投资组合增长和年回报率。</blockquote>Glass half full<blockquote>玻璃杯半满</blockquote>But the more optimistic investor may see a different path forward. From a historical perspective, Apple stock has produced annual returns that are substantially better than the S&amp;P 500’s over a long period: 33% vs. the broad market’s 11% since the start of the iPhone era.<blockquote>但更乐观的投资者可能会看到不同的前进道路。从历史角度来看，苹果股票的年回报率在很长一段时间内都大大好于标普500：自 iPhone 时代开始以来，为 33%，而大盘的年回报率为 11%。</blockquote>Because I am looking four years into the future through the end of 2025, it helps to analyze AAPL’s rolling four-year performance. Since 2007, when the iPhone was introduced, AAPL’s market cap climbed an average of 315% over any given four-year stretch (median 135%). This would be more than enough to send Apple stock well past $5 trillion by 2025.<blockquote>因为我展望未来四年，到 2025 年底，所以分析 AAPL 四年的滚动业绩很有帮助。自 2007 年推出 iPhone 以来，苹果公司的市值在任何四年内平均攀升了 315%（中位数为 135%）。到 2025 年，这足以让苹果股票远远超过 5 万亿美元。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d025e76441a7722d110a5972c182abd4\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"555\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Figure 3: AAPL&#39;s Rolling 4-year market cap growth (est.).<blockquote>图 3：AAPL 的滚动 4 年市值增长（估计。）.</blockquote>What could make it happen<blockquote>什么能让它发生</blockquote>Of course, past results are not a guarantee of future performance. Apple’s market cap managed to grow aggressively over the last several years because it had plenty of room to do so. Today, Apple is already the most valuable company in the world.<blockquote>当然，过去的成绩并不能保证未来的表现。苹果的市值在过去几年中实现了强劲增长，因为它有足够的空间这样做。今天，苹果已经是世界上最有价值的公司。</blockquote>So, for $5 trillion to happen, the Cupertino company would need growth catalysts. Luckily for its shareholders, Apple has plenty of potential candidates.<blockquote>因此，为了实现 5 万亿美元的目标，这家库比蒂诺公司需要增长催化剂。对股东来说幸运的是，苹果有很多潜在的候选人。</blockquote>The first is increased adoption of existing technology: smartphones, tablets, wearables and associated services, like streaming subscriptions and in-app purchases. While the US and Europe are more mature markets in which Apple is already a dominant force, developing markets offer much better growth prospects — see below.<blockquote>首先是增加对现有技术的采用：智能手机、平板电脑、可穿戴设备和相关服务，如流媒体订阅和应用内购买。虽然美国和欧洲是更成熟的市场，苹果已经是其中的主导力量，但发展中市场提供了更好的增长前景——见下文。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45801a6a31a965eb3e194b237097ef12\" tg-width=\"919\" tg-height=\"518\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Figure 4: Smartphones market - growth rate by region (2021-2026).<blockquote>图4：智能手机市场-按地区划分的增长率（2021-2026）。</blockquote>The other growth route is through new technologies. This is the most likely path to $5 trillion by 2025, in my view.<blockquote>另一条增长途径是通过新技术。在我看来，这是到 2025 年达到 5 万亿美元的最有可能途径。</blockquote>Mixed reality devices will probably be a key building block of the metaverse.Morgan Stanley’s research team thinks that the yet-to-be-released Apple Glass will be the game changer that ultimately sparks the new internet 3.0 revolution.<blockquote>摩根士丹利的研究团队认为，尚未发布的苹果眼镜将成为游戏规则的改变者，最终引发新的互联网3.0革命。</blockquote>Then, a bit later, the Cupertino giant is likely to launch the Apple Car — its official entry into the autonomous and electric vehicle space. Wedbush’s Dan Ives has chimed in on the opportunity, and he even quantified it during our conversation last year:<blockquote>然后，过了一会儿，这家库比蒂诺巨头可能会推出苹果汽车——正式进入自动驾驶和电动汽车领域。韦德布什的丹-艾夫斯（Dan Ives）也谈到了这个机会，他甚至在去年的谈话中对这个机会进行了量化：</blockquote>“When I look at the Apple Car, it’s not a matter of if, it’s a matter of when. I believe they are continuing to build a vision, the infrastructure, they are looking for partnerships on the battery side. […] They are not going to miss out on the $5 trillion green tidal wave.”The combination of historical precedence in share price movements and growth opportunities in “old” and new technologies lead me to believe that Apple stock could, in fact, be worth $5 trillion in just a few years.<blockquote>“当我审视苹果汽车时，这不是一个是否的问题，而是一个什么时候的问题。我相信他们正在继续构建愿景、基础设施，他们正在寻找电池方面的合作伙伴。[.]他们不会错过 5 万亿美元的绿色浪潮。股价变动的历史先例和 “旧 ”技术和新技术的增长机会相结合，让我相信苹果的股票实际上可能在短短几年内价值 5 万亿美元。</blockquote></body></html><blockquote></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-it-could-reach-5-trillion-by-2025\">TheStreet</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-it-could-reach-5-trillion-by-2025","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157407942","content_text":"AAPL has failed to stay above the $3 trillion valuation mark, but it could reach well past it in a few years. In fact, I think that Apple stock might be worth $5 trillion by 2025.Apple stock has failed to stay above the $3 trillion market cap by any longer than a day or two. But this is not to say that share value can not climb substantially above these levels in the next four years.In fact, I believe that Apple could be worth $ 5 trillion by then. Here is how I see the journey unfolding through the end of 2025.Figure 1: Apple Stock: It Could Reach $5 Trillion By 2025AAPL: $5 trillion around the cornerThe number “5 trillion” may sound a bit too large to our limited human brains that are not used to dealing with such figures. Also, considering that Apple stock is worth around $2.8 trillion today, the near doubling of the market cap seems a bit aggressive over such a short period of time.But for AAPL to get to $5 trillion in value, its market cap would need to “only” rise by about 15% compounded annually through the end of 2025 (the math: $2.8 trillion times 1.15 to the power of 4 years), or about 75% cumulative. Does this rate of growth sound unrealistic?Glass half emptyThe more pessimistic investor might say “no way!” Apple stock has already climbed 550% over the past five years alone, with annual peaks of 89% in 2019 and 82% in 2020 (see below). It did so, in part, due to lower interest rates and the tailwinds of the pandemic-era, stay-at-home consumer trends. Both will have been left in the rearview mirror by the end of 2022.Figure 2: Apple's porfolio growth and annual returns.Glass half fullBut the more optimistic investor may see a different path forward. From a historical perspective, Apple stock has produced annual returns that are substantially better than the S&P 500’s over a long period: 33% vs. the broad market’s 11% since the start of the iPhone era.Because I am looking four years into the future through the end of 2025, it helps to analyze AAPL’s rolling four-year performance. Since 2007, when the iPhone was introduced, AAPL’s market cap climbed an average of 315% over any given four-year stretch (median 135%). This would be more than enough to send Apple stock well past $5 trillion by 2025.Figure 3: AAPL's Rolling 4-year market cap growth (est.).What could make it happenOf course, past results are not a guarantee of future performance. Apple’s market cap managed to grow aggressively over the last several years because it had plenty of room to do so. Today, Apple is already the most valuable company in the world.So, for $5 trillion to happen, the Cupertino company would need growth catalysts. Luckily for its shareholders, Apple has plenty of potential candidates.The first is increased adoption of existing technology: smartphones, tablets, wearables and associated services, like streaming subscriptions and in-app purchases. While the US and Europe are more mature markets in which Apple is already a dominant force, developing markets offer much better growth prospects — see below.Figure 4: Smartphones market - growth rate by region (2021-2026).The other growth route is through new technologies. This is the most likely path to $5 trillion by 2025, in my view.Mixed reality devices will probably be a key building block of the metaverse.Morgan Stanley’s research team thinks that the yet-to-be-released Apple Glass will be the game changer that ultimately sparks the new internet 3.0 revolution.Then, a bit later, the Cupertino giant is likely to launch the Apple Car — its official entry into the autonomous and electric vehicle space. Wedbush’s Dan Ives has chimed in on the opportunity, and he even quantified it during our conversation last year:“When I look at the Apple Car, it’s not a matter of if, it’s a matter of when. I believe they are continuing to build a vision, the infrastructure, they are looking for partnerships on the battery side. […] They are not going to miss out on the $5 trillion green tidal wave.”The combination of historical precedence in share price movements and growth opportunities in “old” and new technologies lead me to believe that Apple stock could, in fact, be worth $5 trillion in just a few years.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3377,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":6,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}