Can't be s_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

wayjay1159
2022-01-24

Can't be sure if further Dr downs will occur. Nevertheless, will continue to average in on good companies.

Is the market crashing? No. Here's what's happening to stocks, bonds as the Fed aims to end the days of easy money, analysts say<blockquote>市场正在崩溃吗？不。分析师表示，随着美联储旨在结束宽松货币时代，股票和债券的情况如下</blockquote>

As the stock market has convulsed lower and yields for bonds have surged in recent weeks, culminatin

Is the market crashing? No. Here's what's happening to stocks, bonds as the Fed aims to end the days of easy money, analysts say<blockquote>市场正在崩溃吗？不。分析师表示，随着美联储旨在结束宽松货币时代，股票和债券的情况如下</blockquote>

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Nevertheless, will continue to average in on good companies.","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/630533756","repostId":2205024236,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2205024236","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1642979398,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2205024236?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-01-24 07:09","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is the market crashing? No. Here's what's happening to stocks, bonds as the Fed aims to end the days of easy money, analysts say<blockquote>市场正在崩溃吗？不。分析师表示，随着美联储旨在结束宽松货币时代，股票和债券的情况如下</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2205024236","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"As the stock market has convulsed lower and yields for bonds have surged in recent weeks, culminatin","content":"<html><head></head><body>As the stock market has convulsed lower and yields for bonds have surged in recent weeks, culminating in a so-called correction for the Nasdaq Composite Index, average Americans are wondering what’s amiss with Wall Street.<blockquote><html><head></head><body>最近几周，随着股市大幅走低，债券收益率飙升，最终导致纳斯达克综合指数出现所谓的回调，普通美国人想知道华尔街出了什么问题。</body></html></blockquote>Increasingly, Google searches have been focused on the state of the market (and the economy), and for a good reason.<blockquote>谷歌搜索越来越关注市场（和经济）的状况，这是有充分理由的。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb8919922a7b0b50fe4cc9b6dcb60555\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"442\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Timothy A. Clary/AFP/Getty Images<blockquote>蒂莫西·A·克莱里/法新社/盖蒂图片社</blockquote>The Dow Jones Industrial Average just posted its worst weekly loss since October 2020 and the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq Composite logged their worst weekly percentage drops since March 20, 2020, according to Dow Jones Market Data shows.<blockquote>道琼斯市场数据显示，道琼斯工业平均指数刚刚公布了自2020年10月以来最严重的单周跌幅，标普500和纳斯达克综合指数创下了自2020年3月20日以来最严重的单周百分比跌幅。</blockquote>Searches on Google featured the following popular queries: “Is the market crashing?” And “why is the market crashing?”<blockquote>谷歌上的搜索出现了以下热门查询：“市场正在崩溃吗？”以及“为什么市场会崩溃？”</blockquote>What is a market crash?<blockquote>什么是市场崩盘？</blockquote>To be sure, the market isn’t crashing inasmuch as the term “crashing” is even a quantifiable market condition. Declines in stocks and other assets are sometimes described in hyperbolic terms that offer little real substance about the significance of the move.<blockquote>可以肯定的是，市场并没有崩溃，因为“崩溃”一词甚至是一种可量化的市场状况。股票和其他资产的下跌有时被用夸张的术语来描述，几乎没有提供有关此举意义的实质内容。</blockquote>There is no precise definition for a “crash” but it is usually described in terms of time, suddenness, and/or by severity.<blockquote>“撞车”没有精确的定义，但通常根据时间、突发性和/或严重性来描述。</blockquote>Jay Hatfield, chief investment officer at Infrastructure Capital Management, on Saturday told MarketWatch that he might characterize a crash as a decline in an asset of at least 50%, which could happen swiftly or over a year, but acknowledged that the term is sometimes used too loosely to describe run-of-the-mill downturns. He saw bitcoin’s move as a crash, for example.<blockquote>基础设施资本管理公司(Infrastructure Capital Management)首席投资官杰伊·哈特菲尔德(Jay Hatfield)周六告诉MarketWatch，他可能会将崩盘描述为资产下跌至少50%，这可能会迅速发生，也可能会在一年内发生，但他承认这个词有时使用过于宽松，无法描述普通的经济低迷。例如，他认为比特币的举动是一次崩溃。</blockquote>He said the overall equity market’s current slump didn’t meet his crash definition, in any regard, but did say stocks were in a fragile state.<blockquote>他表示，目前整体股市的暴跌在任何方面都不符合他对崩盘的定义，但确实表示股市处于脆弱状态。</blockquote>“It’s not crashing but it is very weak,” Hatfield said.<blockquote>“它没有崩溃，但非常弱，”哈特菲尔德说。</blockquote>What’s happening? <blockquote>怎么回事？</blockquote>Equity benchmarks are being substantially recalibrated from lofty heights as the economy heads into a new monetary-policy regime in the battle against the pandemic and surging inflation. On top of that, doubts about parts of the economy, and events outside of the country, such as China-U.S. relations, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and Middle East unrest, are also contributing to a bearish, or pessimistic tone, for investors.<blockquote>随着经济在抗击疫情和通胀飙升的斗争中进入新的货币政策制度，股票基准正在从高位大幅重新调整。最重要的是，对部分经济以及国外事件（例如中美关系）的疑虑。关系、俄罗斯-乌克兰冲突和中东动荡也给投资者带来了看跌或悲观的基调。</blockquote>The confluence of uncertainties has markets in or near a correction or headed for a bear market, which are terms that are used with more precision when talking about market declines.<blockquote>不确定性的汇合使市场处于或接近调整或走向熊市，这些术语在谈论市场下跌时使用得更精确。</blockquote>The recent drop in stocks, of course, is nothing new but it may feel a bit unsettling for new investors, and, perhaps, even some veterans.<blockquote>当然，最近股市下跌并不是什么新鲜事，但对于新投资者，甚至一些资深投资者来说，这可能会感到有点不安。</blockquote>The Nasdaq Composite entered correction last Wednesday, ringing up a fall of at least 10% from its recent Nov. 19 peak, which meets the commonly used Wall Street definition for a correction. The Nasdaq Composite last entered correction March 8, 2021. On Friday, the Nasdaq Composite stood over 14% below its November peak and was inching toward a so-called bear market, usually described by market technicians as a decline of at least 20% from a recent peak.<blockquote>纳斯达克综合指数上周三进入回调，较11月19日的近期峰值下跌至少10%，这符合华尔街常用的回调定义。纳斯达克综合指数上次进入回调是在2021年3月8日。周五，纳斯达克综合指数较11月峰值低14%以上，正在慢慢走向所谓的熊市，市场技术人员通常将其描述为较近期峰值下跌至少20%。</blockquote>Meanwhile, the blue-chip Dow industrials stood 6.89% beneath its Jan. 4 all-time high, or 3.11 percentage points from a correction, as of Friday’s close; while the S&amp;P 500 was down 8.31% from its Jan. 3 record, putting it a mere 1.69 percentage points from entering a correction.<blockquote>与此同时，截至周五收盘，蓝筹股道指较1月4日的历史高点低6.89%，较回调低3.11个百分点；而标普500较1月3日的纪录下跌8.31%，距离进入回调仅1.69个百分点。</blockquote>Worth noting also, the small-capitalization Russell 2000 index was 18.6% from its recent peak, putting it 1.4 percentage points from a bear market.<blockquote>还值得注意的是，小盘股罗素2000指数较近期峰值上涨18.6%，距离熊市还有1.4个百分点。</blockquote>Underpinning the shift in bullish sentiment is a three-pronged approach by the Federal Reserve toward tighter monetary policy: tapering market-supportive asset purchases, with an eye toward likely concluding those purchases by March; raising benchmark interest rates, which currently stand at a range between 0% and 0.25%, at least three times this year, based on market-based projections; and shrinking its nearly $9 trillion balance sheet, which has grown considerably as the central bank sought to serve as a backstop for markets during a swoon in March 2020 caused by the pandemic rocking the economy.<blockquote>支撑看涨情绪转变的是美联储收紧货币政策的三管齐下的方法：缩减支持市场的资产购买，着眼于可能在3月份之前完成这些购买；根据市场预测，今年至少将基准利率提高三次，目前基准利率在0%至0.25%之间；并缩减其近9万亿美元的资产负债表，随着央行在2020年3月疫情动摇经济造成的低迷期间寻求为市场提供支持，资产负债表大幅增长。</blockquote>Taken together, the central-bank’s tactics to combat a burst of high inflation would remove hundreds of billions of dollars of liquidity from markets that have been awash in funds from the Fed and fiscal stimulus from the government during the coronavirus crisis.<blockquote>总而言之，央行应对高通胀爆发的策略将从市场上消除数千亿美元的流动性，而在冠状病毒危机期间，市场上充斥着美联储的资金和政府的财政刺激。</blockquote>Uncertainty about economic growth this year and the prospect of higher-interest-rates are compelling investors to reprice technology and high growth stocks, whose valuations are especially tied to the present value of their cash flows, as well as undermining speculative assets, including crypto such as bitcoin and Ethereum.<blockquote>今年经济增长的不确定性和利率上升的前景迫使投资者重新定价科技股和高增长股，这些股的估值尤其与其现金流的现值挂钩，并削弱了投机性资产，包括加密货币等比特币和以太币。</blockquote>“Excessive Fed liquidity had the effect of inflating many asset classes, including meme stocks, unprofitable tech stocks, SPACs[special-purpose acquisition companies], and cryptocurrency,” Hatfield said.<blockquote>哈特菲尔德表示：“美联储流动性过剩导致许多资产类别膨胀，包括模因股票、无利可图的科技股、SPAC（特殊目的收购公司）和加密货币。”</blockquote>He said the rise in yields for the 10-year Treasury note, which has climbed more than 20 basis points in 2022, marking the biggest advance at the start of a new year since 2009, is more a symptom of the expectation of liquidity being removed.<blockquote>他表示，2022年10年期国债收益率上涨超过20个基点，创下2009年以来新年伊始最大涨幅，更多是流动性预期被消除的症状。</blockquote>“Liquidity is the key driver, not interest rates, as almost all publicly traded stocks have approximately the same duration/interest rate sensitivity so tech stocks are not disproportionately impacted by rate rises, despite market commentary to the contrary,” Hatfield said.<blockquote>哈特菲尔德表示：“流动性是关键驱动因素，而不是利率，因为几乎所有公开交易的股票都具有大致相同的久期/利率敏感性，因此科技股不会受到加息的不成比例的影响，尽管市场评论与此相反。”</blockquote>In any case, the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee is likely to spend its Jan. 25-26 meeting laying the groundwork for a further shift in policy, which the market is attempting to price into valuations.<blockquote>无论如何，制定利率的联邦公开市场委员会可能会在1月25日至26日的会议上为政策的进一步转变奠定基础，市场正试图将其反映在估值中。</blockquote>How often do markets slump?<blockquote>市场多久暴跌一次？</blockquote>Investors ought to be forgiven for thinking that markets only go up. The stock market has been resilient, even during the pandemic.<blockquote>投资者认为市场只会上涨，这是情有可原的。即使在疫情期间，股市也一直很有弹性。</blockquote>Still, declines of 5% or more are a frequent occurrence on Wall Street.<blockquote>尽管如此，下跌5%或以上在华尔街还是经常发生。</blockquote>Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA, said he viewed the current slump for markets as “a very typical tumble.”<blockquote>CFRA首席投资策略师萨姆·斯托瓦尔(Sam Stovall)表示，他认为当前的市场暴跌是“非常典型的暴跌”。</blockquote>“Is it a crash? No. But it is an average decline, believe it or not, it is,” he told MarketWatch over the weekend.<blockquote>“这是崩盘吗？不。但这是平均下跌，信不信由你，确实如此，”他周末告诉MarketWatch。</blockquote>“I would say that the market is doing what it does. A bull market takes the escalator up but bear markets take the elevator down, and as a result people get very scared when the market declines,” he said.<blockquote>“我想说，市场正在做它该做的事情。牛市乘自动扶梯上升，但熊市乘电梯下降，结果当市场下跌时，人们会非常害怕，”他说。</blockquote>Stovall prefers to categorize market declines by overall magnitude and doesn’t offer specific criteria for a “crash.”<blockquote>斯托瓦尔更喜欢根据总体幅度对市场下跌进行分类，并且没有提供“崩盘”的具体标准。</blockquote>“[Declines of] zero to 5%, I call noise but the closer we get to 5% the louder the noise,” he said. He said a 5%-10% decline qualifies as a pullback, a drop of at least 10% is a correction for him and a fall of 20% or greater is a bear market.<blockquote>“看涨期权噪音从零下降到5%，但越接近5%，噪音就越大，”他说。他表示，下跌5%-10%就属于回调，下跌至少10%对他来说是修正，下跌20%或更多就是熊市。</blockquote>Salil Mehta, a statistician and a former director of analytics for the U.S. Treasury Department’s TARP program following the 2008 financial crisis, told MarketWatch that given the S&amp;P 500’s drop of over 8%, the probability of a 10%-14% drop from here is 31%, while there is a one-out-of-five chance of a total drop of 30% or more from current levels.<blockquote>统计学家、2008年金融危机后美国财政部TARP计划前分析总监Salil Mehta告诉MarketWatch，鉴于标普500下跌超过8%，从这里下跌10%-14%的可能性为31%，而总体下跌30%或更多的可能性为五分之一。</blockquote>The statistician said there is “a similar probability that the current drawdown eventually turns into something twice as large. And a similar probability the current drawdown instead is over.”<blockquote>这位统计学家表示，“当前的缩水最终有类似的可能性会变成两倍。当前的缩水也有类似的可能性会结束。”</blockquote>Stovall said it is important to know that markets can swing back in a hurry after downturns. He said it can take the S&amp;P 500 on average of 135 days to get to a correction from peak to trough and only 116 days on average to get back to break even based on data going back to World War II.<blockquote>斯托瓦尔表示，重要的是要知道市场在低迷后可能会很快回落。他表示，根据二战以来的数据，标普500从高峰到低谷的调整平均需要135天，而恢复盈亏平衡平均只需116天。</blockquote>Stovall says that this downturn may also be exacerbated by seasonal factors. The researcher said that markets tend to do poorly in the second year of a president’s tenure. “We call it the sophomore slump,” he said.<blockquote>斯托瓦尔表示，季节性因素也可能加剧这种低迷。这位研究人员表示，在总统任期的第二年，市场往往表现不佳。“我们看涨期权了大二的低迷，”他说。</blockquote>“Volatility has been 40% higher in the sophomore year, compared with the other three years of the presidential term,” he said.<blockquote>“与总统任期的其他三年相比，第二年的波动性增加了40%，”他说。</blockquote>Stovall said one other factor to consider is that markets tend to do a lot of digesting after a year when returns have been 20% or greater. The S&amp;P 500 registered a 26.89% gain in 2021 and is down 7.7% so far in 2022.<blockquote>斯托瓦尔表示，另一个需要考虑的因素是，在回报率达到20%或更高的一年后，市场往往会进行大量消化。标普500 2021年上涨26.89%，2022年迄今下跌7.7%。</blockquote>There have been 20 other occasions when the S&amp;P 500 index posted a calendar year gain of 20% or more and experienced a decline of at least 5% in the subsequent year. When such a decline, after a big gain in the previous year, has happened in the first half of the new year, and it has on 12 occasions, the market has gotten back to break even 100% of the times.<blockquote>还有20次标普500指数在日历年上涨20%或以上，并在次年下跌至少5%。当这样的下跌，在前一年的大幅上涨之后，在新年的上半年发生了12次，市场在100%的时间里恢复了盈亏平衡。</blockquote>Stovall notes that that’s not statistically significant but still notable.<blockquote>斯托瓦尔指出，这在统计上并不显着，但仍然值得注意。</blockquote>What should investors do? <blockquote>投资者应该怎么做？</blockquote>The best strategy during downturns may be no strategy at all, but it all depends on your risk tolerance and your time horizon. “Doing nothing is often the best strategy,” Hatfield said.<blockquote>经济低迷时期的最佳策略可能根本没有策略，但这完全取决于您的风险承受能力和时间范围。“什么都不做往往是最好的策略，”哈特菲尔德说。</blockquote>He also pointed to defensive sectors, such as consumer staples, utilities and energy, which often carry healthy dividends and higher-yielding investments like preferred stock as a good option for investors looking to hedge in the face of possibly more volatility.<blockquote>他还指出，消费必需品、公用事业和能源等防御性行业通常具有健康的股息和优先股等高收益投资，对于希望在面临可能更大波动时进行对冲的投资者来说是一个不错的选择。</blockquote>Financial experts normally caution against doing anything rash, but they also say some Americans have more reason to be concerned than others, depending on their age and investment profile. Someone who is older may want to discuss the situation with their financial adviser and a younger investor may be able to hold tight if they are comfortable with their current investment setup, strategists say.<blockquote>金融专家通常警告不要做任何鲁莽的事情，但他们也表示，一些美国人比其他人更有理由担心，这取决于他们的年龄和投资状况。策略师表示，年长的人可能想与他们的财务顾问讨论这种情况，而年轻的投资者如果对当前的投资设置感到满意，也许可以坚持下去。</blockquote>Pullbacks can be opportunities for asset accumulation if an investor is prudent and judicious in selecting their investments. However, downturns often result in hive thinking, with market participants selling in droves.<blockquote>如果投资者在选择投资时谨慎明智，回调可能是资产积累的机会。然而，经济低迷往往会导致蜂巢思维，市场参与者成群结队地抛售。</blockquote>Market declines “shake investor confidence and tends to beget more selling,” Hatfield said.<blockquote>哈特菲尔德表示，市场下跌“动摇了投资者的信心，往往会引发更多抛售”。</blockquote>Ultimately, though investors need to be cautious and smart about how they think about the market, even in the face of so-called crashes.<blockquote>最终，尽管投资者需要谨慎和明智地看待市场，即使面对所谓的崩盘。</blockquote></body></html><blockquote></blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is the market crashing? No. Here's what's happening to stocks, bonds as the Fed aims to end the days of easy money, analysts say<blockquote>市场正在崩溃吗？不。分析师表示，随着美联储旨在结束宽松货币时代，股票和债券的情况如下</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs the market crashing? No. Here's what's happening to stocks, bonds as the Fed aims to end the days of easy money, analysts say<blockquote>市场正在崩溃吗？不。分析师表示，随着美联储旨在结束宽松货币时代，股票和债券的情况如下</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2022-01-24 07:09\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body>As the stock market has convulsed lower and yields for bonds have surged in recent weeks, culminating in a so-called correction for the Nasdaq Composite Index, average Americans are wondering what’s amiss with Wall Street.<blockquote><html><head></head><body>最近几周，随着股市大幅走低，债券收益率飙升，最终导致纳斯达克综合指数出现所谓的回调，普通美国人想知道华尔街出了什么问题。</body></html></blockquote>Increasingly, Google searches have been focused on the state of the market (and the economy), and for a good reason.<blockquote>谷歌搜索越来越关注市场（和经济）的状况，这是有充分理由的。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb8919922a7b0b50fe4cc9b6dcb60555\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"442\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Timothy A. Clary/AFP/Getty Images<blockquote>蒂莫西·A·克莱里/法新社/盖蒂图片社</blockquote>The Dow Jones Industrial Average just posted its worst weekly loss since October 2020 and the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq Composite logged their worst weekly percentage drops since March 20, 2020, according to Dow Jones Market Data shows.<blockquote>道琼斯市场数据显示，道琼斯工业平均指数刚刚公布了自2020年10月以来最严重的单周跌幅，标普500和纳斯达克综合指数创下了自2020年3月20日以来最严重的单周百分比跌幅。</blockquote>Searches on Google featured the following popular queries: “Is the market crashing?” And “why is the market crashing?”<blockquote>谷歌上的搜索出现了以下热门查询：“市场正在崩溃吗？”以及“为什么市场会崩溃？”</blockquote>What is a market crash?<blockquote>什么是市场崩盘？</blockquote>To be sure, the market isn’t crashing inasmuch as the term “crashing” is even a quantifiable market condition. Declines in stocks and other assets are sometimes described in hyperbolic terms that offer little real substance about the significance of the move.<blockquote>可以肯定的是，市场并没有崩溃，因为“崩溃”一词甚至是一种可量化的市场状况。股票和其他资产的下跌有时被用夸张的术语来描述，几乎没有提供有关此举意义的实质内容。</blockquote>There is no precise definition for a “crash” but it is usually described in terms of time, suddenness, and/or by severity.<blockquote>“撞车”没有精确的定义，但通常根据时间、突发性和/或严重性来描述。</blockquote>Jay Hatfield, chief investment officer at Infrastructure Capital Management, on Saturday told MarketWatch that he might characterize a crash as a decline in an asset of at least 50%, which could happen swiftly or over a year, but acknowledged that the term is sometimes used too loosely to describe run-of-the-mill downturns. He saw bitcoin’s move as a crash, for example.<blockquote>基础设施资本管理公司(Infrastructure Capital Management)首席投资官杰伊·哈特菲尔德(Jay Hatfield)周六告诉MarketWatch，他可能会将崩盘描述为资产下跌至少50%，这可能会迅速发生，也可能会在一年内发生，但他承认这个词有时使用过于宽松，无法描述普通的经济低迷。例如，他认为比特币的举动是一次崩溃。</blockquote>He said the overall equity market’s current slump didn’t meet his crash definition, in any regard, but did say stocks were in a fragile state.<blockquote>他表示，目前整体股市的暴跌在任何方面都不符合他对崩盘的定义，但确实表示股市处于脆弱状态。</blockquote>“It’s not crashing but it is very weak,” Hatfield said.<blockquote>“它没有崩溃，但非常弱，”哈特菲尔德说。</blockquote>What’s happening? <blockquote>怎么回事？</blockquote>Equity benchmarks are being substantially recalibrated from lofty heights as the economy heads into a new monetary-policy regime in the battle against the pandemic and surging inflation. On top of that, doubts about parts of the economy, and events outside of the country, such as China-U.S. relations, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and Middle East unrest, are also contributing to a bearish, or pessimistic tone, for investors.<blockquote>随着经济在抗击疫情和通胀飙升的斗争中进入新的货币政策制度，股票基准正在从高位大幅重新调整。最重要的是，对部分经济以及国外事件（例如中美关系）的疑虑。关系、俄罗斯-乌克兰冲突和中东动荡也给投资者带来了看跌或悲观的基调。</blockquote>The confluence of uncertainties has markets in or near a correction or headed for a bear market, which are terms that are used with more precision when talking about market declines.<blockquote>不确定性的汇合使市场处于或接近调整或走向熊市，这些术语在谈论市场下跌时使用得更精确。</blockquote>The recent drop in stocks, of course, is nothing new but it may feel a bit unsettling for new investors, and, perhaps, even some veterans.<blockquote>当然，最近股市下跌并不是什么新鲜事，但对于新投资者，甚至一些资深投资者来说，这可能会感到有点不安。</blockquote>The Nasdaq Composite entered correction last Wednesday, ringing up a fall of at least 10% from its recent Nov. 19 peak, which meets the commonly used Wall Street definition for a correction. The Nasdaq Composite last entered correction March 8, 2021. On Friday, the Nasdaq Composite stood over 14% below its November peak and was inching toward a so-called bear market, usually described by market technicians as a decline of at least 20% from a recent peak.<blockquote>纳斯达克综合指数上周三进入回调，较11月19日的近期峰值下跌至少10%，这符合华尔街常用的回调定义。纳斯达克综合指数上次进入回调是在2021年3月8日。周五，纳斯达克综合指数较11月峰值低14%以上，正在慢慢走向所谓的熊市，市场技术人员通常将其描述为较近期峰值下跌至少20%。</blockquote>Meanwhile, the blue-chip Dow industrials stood 6.89% beneath its Jan. 4 all-time high, or 3.11 percentage points from a correction, as of Friday’s close; while the S&amp;P 500 was down 8.31% from its Jan. 3 record, putting it a mere 1.69 percentage points from entering a correction.<blockquote>与此同时，截至周五收盘，蓝筹股道指较1月4日的历史高点低6.89%，较回调低3.11个百分点；而标普500较1月3日的纪录下跌8.31%，距离进入回调仅1.69个百分点。</blockquote>Worth noting also, the small-capitalization Russell 2000 index was 18.6% from its recent peak, putting it 1.4 percentage points from a bear market.<blockquote>还值得注意的是，小盘股罗素2000指数较近期峰值上涨18.6%，距离熊市还有1.4个百分点。</blockquote>Underpinning the shift in bullish sentiment is a three-pronged approach by the Federal Reserve toward tighter monetary policy: tapering market-supportive asset purchases, with an eye toward likely concluding those purchases by March; raising benchmark interest rates, which currently stand at a range between 0% and 0.25%, at least three times this year, based on market-based projections; and shrinking its nearly $9 trillion balance sheet, which has grown considerably as the central bank sought to serve as a backstop for markets during a swoon in March 2020 caused by the pandemic rocking the economy.<blockquote>支撑看涨情绪转变的是美联储收紧货币政策的三管齐下的方法：缩减支持市场的资产购买，着眼于可能在3月份之前完成这些购买；根据市场预测，今年至少将基准利率提高三次，目前基准利率在0%至0.25%之间；并缩减其近9万亿美元的资产负债表，随着央行在2020年3月疫情动摇经济造成的低迷期间寻求为市场提供支持，资产负债表大幅增长。</blockquote>Taken together, the central-bank’s tactics to combat a burst of high inflation would remove hundreds of billions of dollars of liquidity from markets that have been awash in funds from the Fed and fiscal stimulus from the government during the coronavirus crisis.<blockquote>总而言之，央行应对高通胀爆发的策略将从市场上消除数千亿美元的流动性，而在冠状病毒危机期间，市场上充斥着美联储的资金和政府的财政刺激。</blockquote>Uncertainty about economic growth this year and the prospect of higher-interest-rates are compelling investors to reprice technology and high growth stocks, whose valuations are especially tied to the present value of their cash flows, as well as undermining speculative assets, including crypto such as bitcoin and Ethereum.<blockquote>今年经济增长的不确定性和利率上升的前景迫使投资者重新定价科技股和高增长股，这些股的估值尤其与其现金流的现值挂钩，并削弱了投机性资产，包括加密货币等比特币和以太币。</blockquote>“Excessive Fed liquidity had the effect of inflating many asset classes, including meme stocks, unprofitable tech stocks, SPACs[special-purpose acquisition companies], and cryptocurrency,” Hatfield said.<blockquote>哈特菲尔德表示：“美联储流动性过剩导致许多资产类别膨胀，包括模因股票、无利可图的科技股、SPAC（特殊目的收购公司）和加密货币。”</blockquote>He said the rise in yields for the 10-year Treasury note, which has climbed more than 20 basis points in 2022, marking the biggest advance at the start of a new year since 2009, is more a symptom of the expectation of liquidity being removed.<blockquote>他表示，2022年10年期国债收益率上涨超过20个基点，创下2009年以来新年伊始最大涨幅，更多是流动性预期被消除的症状。</blockquote>“Liquidity is the key driver, not interest rates, as almost all publicly traded stocks have approximately the same duration/interest rate sensitivity so tech stocks are not disproportionately impacted by rate rises, despite market commentary to the contrary,” Hatfield said.<blockquote>哈特菲尔德表示：“流动性是关键驱动因素，而不是利率，因为几乎所有公开交易的股票都具有大致相同的久期/利率敏感性，因此科技股不会受到加息的不成比例的影响，尽管市场评论与此相反。”</blockquote>In any case, the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee is likely to spend its Jan. 25-26 meeting laying the groundwork for a further shift in policy, which the market is attempting to price into valuations.<blockquote>无论如何，制定利率的联邦公开市场委员会可能会在1月25日至26日的会议上为政策的进一步转变奠定基础，市场正试图将其反映在估值中。</blockquote>How often do markets slump?<blockquote>市场多久暴跌一次？</blockquote>Investors ought to be forgiven for thinking that markets only go up. The stock market has been resilient, even during the pandemic.<blockquote>投资者认为市场只会上涨，这是情有可原的。即使在疫情期间，股市也一直很有弹性。</blockquote>Still, declines of 5% or more are a frequent occurrence on Wall Street.<blockquote>尽管如此，下跌5%或以上在华尔街还是经常发生。</blockquote>Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA, said he viewed the current slump for markets as “a very typical tumble.”<blockquote>CFRA首席投资策略师萨姆·斯托瓦尔(Sam Stovall)表示，他认为当前的市场暴跌是“非常典型的暴跌”。</blockquote>“Is it a crash? No. But it is an average decline, believe it or not, it is,” he told MarketWatch over the weekend.<blockquote>“这是崩盘吗？不。但这是平均下跌，信不信由你，确实如此，”他周末告诉MarketWatch。</blockquote>“I would say that the market is doing what it does. A bull market takes the escalator up but bear markets take the elevator down, and as a result people get very scared when the market declines,” he said.<blockquote>“我想说，市场正在做它该做的事情。牛市乘自动扶梯上升，但熊市乘电梯下降，结果当市场下跌时，人们会非常害怕，”他说。</blockquote>Stovall prefers to categorize market declines by overall magnitude and doesn’t offer specific criteria for a “crash.”<blockquote>斯托瓦尔更喜欢根据总体幅度对市场下跌进行分类，并且没有提供“崩盘”的具体标准。</blockquote>“[Declines of] zero to 5%, I call noise but the closer we get to 5% the louder the noise,” he said. He said a 5%-10% decline qualifies as a pullback, a drop of at least 10% is a correction for him and a fall of 20% or greater is a bear market.<blockquote>“看涨期权噪音从零下降到5%，但越接近5%，噪音就越大，”他说。他表示，下跌5%-10%就属于回调，下跌至少10%对他来说是修正，下跌20%或更多就是熊市。</blockquote>Salil Mehta, a statistician and a former director of analytics for the U.S. Treasury Department’s TARP program following the 2008 financial crisis, told MarketWatch that given the S&amp;P 500’s drop of over 8%, the probability of a 10%-14% drop from here is 31%, while there is a one-out-of-five chance of a total drop of 30% or more from current levels.<blockquote>统计学家、2008年金融危机后美国财政部TARP计划前分析总监Salil Mehta告诉MarketWatch，鉴于标普500下跌超过8%，从这里下跌10%-14%的可能性为31%，而总体下跌30%或更多的可能性为五分之一。</blockquote>The statistician said there is “a similar probability that the current drawdown eventually turns into something twice as large. And a similar probability the current drawdown instead is over.”<blockquote>这位统计学家表示，“当前的缩水最终有类似的可能性会变成两倍。当前的缩水也有类似的可能性会结束。”</blockquote>Stovall said it is important to know that markets can swing back in a hurry after downturns. He said it can take the S&amp;P 500 on average of 135 days to get to a correction from peak to trough and only 116 days on average to get back to break even based on data going back to World War II.<blockquote>斯托瓦尔表示，重要的是要知道市场在低迷后可能会很快回落。他表示，根据二战以来的数据，标普500从高峰到低谷的调整平均需要135天，而恢复盈亏平衡平均只需116天。</blockquote>Stovall says that this downturn may also be exacerbated by seasonal factors. The researcher said that markets tend to do poorly in the second year of a president’s tenure. “We call it the sophomore slump,” he said.<blockquote>斯托瓦尔表示，季节性因素也可能加剧这种低迷。这位研究人员表示，在总统任期的第二年，市场往往表现不佳。“我们看涨期权了大二的低迷，”他说。</blockquote>“Volatility has been 40% higher in the sophomore year, compared with the other three years of the presidential term,” he said.<blockquote>“与总统任期的其他三年相比，第二年的波动性增加了40%，”他说。</blockquote>Stovall said one other factor to consider is that markets tend to do a lot of digesting after a year when returns have been 20% or greater. The S&amp;P 500 registered a 26.89% gain in 2021 and is down 7.7% so far in 2022.<blockquote>斯托瓦尔表示，另一个需要考虑的因素是，在回报率达到20%或更高的一年后，市场往往会进行大量消化。标普500 2021年上涨26.89%，2022年迄今下跌7.7%。</blockquote>There have been 20 other occasions when the S&amp;P 500 index posted a calendar year gain of 20% or more and experienced a decline of at least 5% in the subsequent year. When such a decline, after a big gain in the previous year, has happened in the first half of the new year, and it has on 12 occasions, the market has gotten back to break even 100% of the times.<blockquote>还有20次标普500指数在日历年上涨20%或以上，并在次年下跌至少5%。当这样的下跌，在前一年的大幅上涨之后，在新年的上半年发生了12次，市场在100%的时间里恢复了盈亏平衡。</blockquote>Stovall notes that that’s not statistically significant but still notable.<blockquote>斯托瓦尔指出，这在统计上并不显着，但仍然值得注意。</blockquote>What should investors do? <blockquote>投资者应该怎么做？</blockquote>The best strategy during downturns may be no strategy at all, but it all depends on your risk tolerance and your time horizon. “Doing nothing is often the best strategy,” Hatfield said.<blockquote>经济低迷时期的最佳策略可能根本没有策略，但这完全取决于您的风险承受能力和时间范围。“什么都不做往往是最好的策略，”哈特菲尔德说。</blockquote>He also pointed to defensive sectors, such as consumer staples, utilities and energy, which often carry healthy dividends and higher-yielding investments like preferred stock as a good option for investors looking to hedge in the face of possibly more volatility.<blockquote>他还指出，消费必需品、公用事业和能源等防御性行业通常具有健康的股息和优先股等高收益投资，对于希望在面临可能更大波动时进行对冲的投资者来说是一个不错的选择。</blockquote>Financial experts normally caution against doing anything rash, but they also say some Americans have more reason to be concerned than others, depending on their age and investment profile. Someone who is older may want to discuss the situation with their financial adviser and a younger investor may be able to hold tight if they are comfortable with their current investment setup, strategists say.<blockquote>金融专家通常警告不要做任何鲁莽的事情，但他们也表示，一些美国人比其他人更有理由担心，这取决于他们的年龄和投资状况。策略师表示，年长的人可能想与他们的财务顾问讨论这种情况，而年轻的投资者如果对当前的投资设置感到满意，也许可以坚持下去。</blockquote>Pullbacks can be opportunities for asset accumulation if an investor is prudent and judicious in selecting their investments. However, downturns often result in hive thinking, with market participants selling in droves.<blockquote>如果投资者在选择投资时谨慎明智，回调可能是资产积累的机会。然而，经济低迷往往会导致蜂巢思维，市场参与者成群结队地抛售。</blockquote>Market declines “shake investor confidence and tends to beget more selling,” Hatfield said.<blockquote>哈特菲尔德表示，市场下跌“动摇了投资者的信心，往往会引发更多抛售”。</blockquote>Ultimately, though investors need to be cautious and smart about how they think about the market, even in the face of so-called crashes.<blockquote>最终，尽管投资者需要谨慎和明智地看待市场，即使面对所谓的崩盘。</blockquote></body></html><blockquote></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/is-the-market-crashing-no-heres-whats-happening-to-stocks-bonds-as-the-fed-aims-to-end-the-days-of-easy-money-analysts-say-11642892638?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","XLU":"公共事业指数ETF-SPDR","BK4525":"远程办公概念","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4527":"明星科技股","GOOG":"谷歌","XLE":"SPDR能源指数ETF","BK4077":"互动媒体与服务","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4514":"搜索引擎","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4566":"资本集团",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4504":"桥水持仓",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","XLP":"消费品指数ETF-SPDR主要消费品","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4507":"流媒体概念"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/is-the-market-crashing-no-heres-whats-happening-to-stocks-bonds-as-the-fed-aims-to-end-the-days-of-easy-money-analysts-say-11642892638?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2205024236","content_text":"As the stock market has convulsed lower and yields for bonds have surged in recent weeks, culminating in a so-called correction for the Nasdaq Composite Index, average Americans are wondering what’s amiss with Wall Street.Increasingly, Google searches have been focused on the state of the market (and the economy), and for a good reason.Timothy A. Clary/AFP/Getty ImagesThe Dow Jones Industrial Average just posted its worst weekly loss since October 2020 and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite logged their worst weekly percentage drops since March 20, 2020, according to Dow Jones Market Data shows.Searches on Google featured the following popular queries: “Is the market crashing?” And “why is the market crashing?”What is a market crash?To be sure, the market isn’t crashing inasmuch as the term “crashing” is even a quantifiable market condition. Declines in stocks and other assets are sometimes described in hyperbolic terms that offer little real substance about the significance of the move.There is no precise definition for a “crash” but it is usually described in terms of time, suddenness, and/or by severity.Jay Hatfield, chief investment officer at Infrastructure Capital Management, on Saturday told MarketWatch that he might characterize a crash as a decline in an asset of at least 50%, which could happen swiftly or over a year, but acknowledged that the term is sometimes used too loosely to describe run-of-the-mill downturns. He saw bitcoin’s move as a crash, for example.He said the overall equity market’s current slump didn’t meet his crash definition, in any regard, but did say stocks were in a fragile state.“It’s not crashing but it is very weak,” Hatfield said.What’s happening? Equity benchmarks are being substantially recalibrated from lofty heights as the economy heads into a new monetary-policy regime in the battle against the pandemic and surging inflation. On top of that, doubts about parts of the economy, and events outside of the country, such as China-U.S. relations, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and Middle East unrest, are also contributing to a bearish, or pessimistic tone, for investors.The confluence of uncertainties has markets in or near a correction or headed for a bear market, which are terms that are used with more precision when talking about market declines.The recent drop in stocks, of course, is nothing new but it may feel a bit unsettling for new investors, and, perhaps, even some veterans.The Nasdaq Composite entered correction last Wednesday, ringing up a fall of at least 10% from its recent Nov. 19 peak, which meets the commonly used Wall Street definition for a correction. The Nasdaq Composite last entered correction March 8, 2021. On Friday, the Nasdaq Composite stood over 14% below its November peak and was inching toward a so-called bear market, usually described by market technicians as a decline of at least 20% from a recent peak.Meanwhile, the blue-chip Dow industrials stood 6.89% beneath its Jan. 4 all-time high, or 3.11 percentage points from a correction, as of Friday’s close; while the S&P 500 was down 8.31% from its Jan. 3 record, putting it a mere 1.69 percentage points from entering a correction.Worth noting also, the small-capitalization Russell 2000 index was 18.6% from its recent peak, putting it 1.4 percentage points from a bear market.Underpinning the shift in bullish sentiment is a three-pronged approach by the Federal Reserve toward tighter monetary policy: tapering market-supportive asset purchases, with an eye toward likely concluding those purchases by March; raising benchmark interest rates, which currently stand at a range between 0% and 0.25%, at least three times this year, based on market-based projections; and shrinking its nearly $9 trillion balance sheet, which has grown considerably as the central bank sought to serve as a backstop for markets during a swoon in March 2020 caused by the pandemic rocking the economy.Taken together, the central-bank’s tactics to combat a burst of high inflation would remove hundreds of billions of dollars of liquidity from markets that have been awash in funds from the Fed and fiscal stimulus from the government during the coronavirus crisis.Uncertainty about economic growth this year and the prospect of higher-interest-rates are compelling investors to reprice technology and high growth stocks, whose valuations are especially tied to the present value of their cash flows, as well as undermining speculative assets, including crypto such as bitcoin and Ethereum.“Excessive Fed liquidity had the effect of inflating many asset classes, including meme stocks, unprofitable tech stocks, SPACs[special-purpose acquisition companies], and cryptocurrency,” Hatfield said.He said the rise in yields for the 10-year Treasury note, which has climbed more than 20 basis points in 2022, marking the biggest advance at the start of a new year since 2009, is more a symptom of the expectation of liquidity being removed.“Liquidity is the key driver, not interest rates, as almost all publicly traded stocks have approximately the same duration/interest rate sensitivity so tech stocks are not disproportionately impacted by rate rises, despite market commentary to the contrary,” Hatfield said.In any case, the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee is likely to spend its Jan. 25-26 meeting laying the groundwork for a further shift in policy, which the market is attempting to price into valuations.How often do markets slump?Investors ought to be forgiven for thinking that markets only go up. The stock market has been resilient, even during the pandemic.Still, declines of 5% or more are a frequent occurrence on Wall Street.Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA, said he viewed the current slump for markets as “a very typical tumble.”“Is it a crash? No. But it is an average decline, believe it or not, it is,” he told MarketWatch over the weekend.“I would say that the market is doing what it does. A bull market takes the escalator up but bear markets take the elevator down, and as a result people get very scared when the market declines,” he said.Stovall prefers to categorize market declines by overall magnitude and doesn’t offer specific criteria for a “crash.”“[Declines of] zero to 5%, I call noise but the closer we get to 5% the louder the noise,” he said. He said a 5%-10% decline qualifies as a pullback, a drop of at least 10% is a correction for him and a fall of 20% or greater is a bear market.Salil Mehta, a statistician and a former director of analytics for the U.S. Treasury Department’s TARP program following the 2008 financial crisis, told MarketWatch that given the S&P 500’s drop of over 8%, the probability of a 10%-14% drop from here is 31%, while there is a one-out-of-five chance of a total drop of 30% or more from current levels.The statistician said there is “a similar probability that the current drawdown eventually turns into something twice as large. And a similar probability the current drawdown instead is over.”Stovall said it is important to know that markets can swing back in a hurry after downturns. He said it can take the S&P 500 on average of 135 days to get to a correction from peak to trough and only 116 days on average to get back to break even based on data going back to World War II.Stovall says that this downturn may also be exacerbated by seasonal factors. The researcher said that markets tend to do poorly in the second year of a president’s tenure. “We call it the sophomore slump,” he said.“Volatility has been 40% higher in the sophomore year, compared with the other three years of the presidential term,” he said.Stovall said one other factor to consider is that markets tend to do a lot of digesting after a year when returns have been 20% or greater. The S&P 500 registered a 26.89% gain in 2021 and is down 7.7% so far in 2022.There have been 20 other occasions when the S&P 500 index posted a calendar year gain of 20% or more and experienced a decline of at least 5% in the subsequent year. When such a decline, after a big gain in the previous year, has happened in the first half of the new year, and it has on 12 occasions, the market has gotten back to break even 100% of the times.Stovall notes that that’s not statistically significant but still notable.What should investors do? The best strategy during downturns may be no strategy at all, but it all depends on your risk tolerance and your time horizon. “Doing nothing is often the best strategy,” Hatfield said.He also pointed to defensive sectors, such as consumer staples, utilities and energy, which often carry healthy dividends and higher-yielding investments like preferred stock as a good option for investors looking to hedge in the face of possibly more volatility.Financial experts normally caution against doing anything rash, but they also say some Americans have more reason to be concerned than others, depending on their age and investment profile. Someone who is older may want to discuss the situation with their financial adviser and a younger investor may be able to hold tight if they are comfortable with their current investment setup, strategists say.Pullbacks can be opportunities for asset accumulation if an investor is prudent and judicious in selecting their investments. However, downturns often result in hive thinking, with market participants selling in droves.Market declines “shake investor confidence and tends to beget more selling,” Hatfield said.Ultimately, though investors need to be cautious and smart about how they think about the market, even in the face of so-called crashes.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"NQmain":0.85,".DJI":0.9,"GOOG":0.68,".SPX":0.9,"XLU":0.9,"END":1,"SPY":0.6,"XLE":0.9,"XLP":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2304,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":89,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}