就涨了这么点就算暴_老虎社区_美港股上老虎 - 老虎社区

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深圳的湾
11-05

就涨了这么点就算暴涨了？

恒科五连阳、阿里腾讯暴涨！港股价值重估开始了？

全球资金正从AI硬件转向低估值中国互联网资产，叠加空头回补，推动港股强势反弹。中信证券认为，港股风险已充分计价，修复行情有望开启，明年恒生科技指数盈利增速有望达到24.8%；中金指出，港股要实现趋势反转，仍有赖于居民信用周期实质性改善。估值修复已然启动，盈利能否兑现，将成为决定本轮反弹高度的关键。

恒科五连阳、阿里腾讯暴涨！港股价值重估开始了？

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就算暴涨了？","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/626122543886952","repostId":2681047490,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2681047490","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1793875009,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2681047490?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-11-05 18:36","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"恒科五连阳、阿里腾讯暴涨！港股价值重估开始了？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2681047490","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"全球资金正从AI硬件转向低估值中国互联网资产，叠加空头回补，推动港股强势反弹。中信证券认为，港股风险已充分计价，修复行情有望开启，明年恒生科技指数盈利增速有望达到24.8%；中金指出，港股要实现趋势反转，仍有赖于居民信用周期实质性改善。估值修复已然启动，盈利能否兑现，将成为决定本轮反弹高度的关键。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">港股终于迎来一轮强势反弹。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">11月5日，港股市场大幅走高，恒生科技指数盘中涨幅一度接近6%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">阿里巴巴</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>等互联网龙头集体飙升，恒生指数盘中涨幅一度达到4%，收复24000点关口。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9faee3e0c029d7ddf29977df66f91586\" data-align=\"center\" data-image-type=\"kline\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">本轮这轮反弹背后，一个值得关注的变化是：市场正在重新审视中国互联网资产的投资价值。<strong>随着美国中期选举结果扰动全球市场，部分资金开始从AI硬件、半导体等高估值方向撤出，转向估值更低、与消费需求联系更紧密的中国互联网平台。</strong></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">美国中选引发资金再平衡，港股互联网资产迎来估值修复</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此次港股反弹，一个直接催化因素来自美国中期选举后的全球市场风格变化。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>投资者正在从AI交易转向价值股和消费股，而中国互联网巨头成为这一轮资金轮动的受益者。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此前，韩国股市在AI硬件交易中的表现相对突出，但随着相关板块承压，部分资金开始重新审视中国资产。与此同时，今年以来中国市场估值持续处于低位，而全球其他市场已经经历了一轮上涨，中国互联网平台的相对估值吸引力因此有所上升。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>阿里巴巴、腾讯等公司恰好具备这一轮资金偏好的特征：估值相对较低，业务覆盖消费、广告、云计算、游戏等多个领域，与中国居民日常经济活动紧密相关。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">彭博行业研究策略师Marvin Chen表示，当前亚洲市场正在出现三重轮动：从韩国等市场转向中国的区域轮动；<strong>从高估值资产转向低估值资产的价值轮动；以及从AI硬件和纯AI投资标的转向其他科技资产的AI交易轮动。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">从估值看，<strong>港股互联网资产此前已经经历了较大幅度调整。恒生科技指数上月的远期市盈率一度降至约13倍，为2024年以来最低水平。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">超跌也意味着反弹空间。Gavekal Capital投资组合经理Leonid Mironov表示，<strong>部分港股公司已经变得非常便宜，投资者正在尝试抄底。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">阿里巴巴周四涨逾8%，腾讯涨超7%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MPNGY\">美团</a>盘中涨幅一度达到9.6%，互联网平台成为推动港股上涨的重要力量。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/058aa09727b1ae441b9bf5c1fb4c3ce2\" data-align=\"center\" data-image-type=\"kline\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/><span></span></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">反弹还伴随着一轮逼空行情</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">除了资金风格切换，港股此前极端悲观的市场情绪，也为此次反弹提供了燃料。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>当美国中期选举后的市场环境出现变化，部分投资者开始重新评估此前的悲观判断，空头回补便可能进一步放大股价上涨。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Lotus Asset Management首席投资官Hao Hong认为，美国中期选举对美国政治和港股市场而言，都构成了一次均值回归事件。此前港股遭遇过度抛售，悲观情绪达到极端水平，由此引发了近年来规模较大的逼空行情之一。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">期权市场也出现了情绪改善的迹象。彭博数据显示<strong>，恒生科技指数的三个月隐含波动率回落至7月以来低位，对冲港股下跌风险的成本有所下降；追踪香港<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02800\">盈富基金</a>的期权交易量则升至一年高位，看涨押注明显增加。</strong></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">估值修复有空间，盈利兑现才是关键</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">从国内券商11月策略来看，港股的积极因素正在累积，但市场关注重点已经从单纯的估值修复，转向企业盈利能否真正改善。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">首先，<strong>估值处于相对低位，为市场提供了一定安全边际。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">中金公司</a>认为，港股当前的低估值与超卖情绪已经构成短期反弹的赔率价值。从横向比较来看，港股估值也具备一定吸引力。不过，<strong>如果要实现真正的趋势反转，核心仍在于居民信用周期能否实质性改善，这需要财政政策进一步发力，并更多向居民部门倾斜。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">中信证券</a>的判断则相对积极。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">该机构预计，<strong>2027年恒生指数、恒生综指盈利分别增长7.4%和9.9%，恒生科技指数盈利增速有望达到24.8%</strong>。其中，<strong>消费和科技有望接替周期板块，成为港股盈利增长的主要增量来源。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这意味着，如果未来企业盈利预期逐步改善，当前的低估值就有望从单纯的估值优势，转化为更具持续性的投资机会。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">其次，海外流动性压力有望边际缓和，但资金面仍存在约束。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601788\">光大证券</a>认为，<strong>美联储10月维持利率不变后，港股估值面临的外部利率压力有所缓和，未来科技成长板块的表现将更多取决于基本面兑现情况。</strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06030\">中信证券</a>也预计，<strong>美联储可能在2027年下半年重启降息，有望缓解贴现率压力。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">但资金流入并非没有阻力。Wind数据显示，南向资金10月累计净卖出约279.51亿港元。中信证券同时指出，融资解禁以及南向资金增量放缓，可能使2027年上半年港股资金面依然偏紧。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">因此，港股要想形成持续上涨行情，还需要看到内地资金重新流入，以及海外资金配置意愿的进一步改善。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">市场仍在等待两个信号</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">综合来看，港股当前确实具备反弹的多重条件：估值处于历史相对低位、此前空头仓位过于拥挤、海外利率压力边际缓和，加上全球资金从AI硬件向价值资产再平衡，都有利于市场情绪修复。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">短期来看，市场首先需要观察南向资金能否持续回流，以及此次空头回补行情能否转化为真正的增量买盘。内地投资者能否持续、有规模地回归港股，将是检验反弹持续性的重要因素。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">中期来看，决定港股能否真正反转的，仍然是企业盈利和内需的改善。对于科技股而言，市场的定价逻辑也正在发生变化：AI资本开支规模不再是唯一焦点，订单增长、盈利能力和自由现金流将成为更重要的考量。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601688\">华泰证券</a>首席宏观经济学家易峘认为，<strong>宏观流动性对港股的压制高峰或许已经过去，但约束难以彻底解除，港股机会更多来自结构性盈利改善和全球资金再平衡。</strong>短期市场有望迎来情绪修复型反弹，中期胜负手仍在内需改善进展。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">换句话说，港股最悲观的阶段或许正在过去，但要从估值修复走向趋势反转，还需要更多基本面证据。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>恒科五连阳、阿里腾讯暴涨！港股价值重估开始了？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n恒科五连阳、阿里腾讯暴涨！港股价值重估开始了？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-11-05 18:36</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">港股终于迎来一轮强势反弹。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">11月5日，港股市场大幅走高，恒生科技指数盘中涨幅一度接近6%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">阿里巴巴</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>等互联网龙头集体飙升，恒生指数盘中涨幅一度达到4%，收复24000点关口。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9faee3e0c029d7ddf29977df66f91586\" data-align=\"center\" data-image-type=\"kline\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">本轮这轮反弹背后，一个值得关注的变化是：市场正在重新审视中国互联网资产的投资价值。<strong>随着美国中期选举结果扰动全球市场，部分资金开始从AI硬件、半导体等高估值方向撤出，转向估值更低、与消费需求联系更紧密的中国互联网平台。</strong></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">美国中选引发资金再平衡，港股互联网资产迎来估值修复</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此次港股反弹，一个直接催化因素来自美国中期选举后的全球市场风格变化。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>投资者正在从AI交易转向价值股和消费股，而中国互联网巨头成为这一轮资金轮动的受益者。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此前，韩国股市在AI硬件交易中的表现相对突出，但随着相关板块承压，部分资金开始重新审视中国资产。与此同时，今年以来中国市场估值持续处于低位，而全球其他市场已经经历了一轮上涨，中国互联网平台的相对估值吸引力因此有所上升。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>阿里巴巴、腾讯等公司恰好具备这一轮资金偏好的特征：估值相对较低，业务覆盖消费、广告、云计算、游戏等多个领域，与中国居民日常经济活动紧密相关。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">彭博行业研究策略师Marvin Chen表示，当前亚洲市场正在出现三重轮动：从韩国等市场转向中国的区域轮动；<strong>从高估值资产转向低估值资产的价值轮动；以及从AI硬件和纯AI投资标的转向其他科技资产的AI交易轮动。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">从估值看，<strong>港股互联网资产此前已经经历了较大幅度调整。恒生科技指数上月的远期市盈率一度降至约13倍，为2024年以来最低水平。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">超跌也意味着反弹空间。Gavekal Capital投资组合经理Leonid Mironov表示，<strong>部分港股公司已经变得非常便宜，投资者正在尝试抄底。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">阿里巴巴周四涨逾8%，腾讯涨超7%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MPNGY\">美团</a>盘中涨幅一度达到9.6%，互联网平台成为推动港股上涨的重要力量。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/058aa09727b1ae441b9bf5c1fb4c3ce2\" data-align=\"center\" data-image-type=\"kline\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/><span></span></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">反弹还伴随着一轮逼空行情</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">除了资金风格切换，港股此前极端悲观的市场情绪，也为此次反弹提供了燃料。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>当美国中期选举后的市场环境出现变化，部分投资者开始重新评估此前的悲观判断，空头回补便可能进一步放大股价上涨。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Lotus Asset Management首席投资官Hao Hong认为，美国中期选举对美国政治和港股市场而言，都构成了一次均值回归事件。此前港股遭遇过度抛售，悲观情绪达到极端水平，由此引发了近年来规模较大的逼空行情之一。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">期权市场也出现了情绪改善的迹象。彭博数据显示<strong>，恒生科技指数的三个月隐含波动率回落至7月以来低位，对冲港股下跌风险的成本有所下降；追踪香港<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02800\">盈富基金</a>的期权交易量则升至一年高位，看涨押注明显增加。</strong></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">估值修复有空间，盈利兑现才是关键</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">从国内券商11月策略来看，港股的积极因素正在累积，但市场关注重点已经从单纯的估值修复，转向企业盈利能否真正改善。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">首先，<strong>估值处于相对低位，为市场提供了一定安全边际。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">中金公司</a>认为，港股当前的低估值与超卖情绪已经构成短期反弹的赔率价值。从横向比较来看，港股估值也具备一定吸引力。不过，<strong>如果要实现真正的趋势反转，核心仍在于居民信用周期能否实质性改善，这需要财政政策进一步发力，并更多向居民部门倾斜。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">中信证券</a>的判断则相对积极。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">该机构预计，<strong>2027年恒生指数、恒生综指盈利分别增长7.4%和9.9%，恒生科技指数盈利增速有望达到24.8%</strong>。其中，<strong>消费和科技有望接替周期板块，成为港股盈利增长的主要增量来源。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这意味着，如果未来企业盈利预期逐步改善，当前的低估值就有望从单纯的估值优势，转化为更具持续性的投资机会。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">其次，海外流动性压力有望边际缓和，但资金面仍存在约束。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601788\">光大证券</a>认为，<strong>美联储10月维持利率不变后，港股估值面临的外部利率压力有所缓和，未来科技成长板块的表现将更多取决于基本面兑现情况。</strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06030\">中信证券</a>也预计，<strong>美联储可能在2027年下半年重启降息，有望缓解贴现率压力。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">但资金流入并非没有阻力。Wind数据显示，南向资金10月累计净卖出约279.51亿港元。中信证券同时指出，融资解禁以及南向资金增量放缓，可能使2027年上半年港股资金面依然偏紧。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">因此，港股要想形成持续上涨行情，还需要看到内地资金重新流入，以及海外资金配置意愿的进一步改善。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">市场仍在等待两个信号</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">综合来看，港股当前确实具备反弹的多重条件：估值处于历史相对低位、此前空头仓位过于拥挤、海外利率压力边际缓和，加上全球资金从AI硬件向价值资产再平衡，都有利于市场情绪修复。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">短期来看，市场首先需要观察南向资金能否持续回流，以及此次空头回补行情能否转化为真正的增量买盘。内地投资者能否持续、有规模地回归港股，将是检验反弹持续性的重要因素。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">中期来看，决定港股能否真正反转的，仍然是企业盈利和内需的改善。对于科技股而言，市场的定价逻辑也正在发生变化：AI资本开支规模不再是唯一焦点，订单增长、盈利能力和自由现金流将成为更重要的考量。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601688\">华泰证券</a>首席宏观经济学家易峘认为，<strong>宏观流动性对港股的压制高峰或许已经过去，但约束难以彻底解除，港股机会更多来自结构性盈利改善和全球资金再平衡。</strong>短期市场有望迎来情绪修复型反弹，中期胜负手仍在内需改善进展。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">换句话说，港股最悲观的阶段或许正在过去，但要从估值修复走向趋势反转，还需要更多基本面证据。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1cb237e736a4e03c939622e7b71e8e7","relate_stocks":{"89988":"阿里巴巴-WR","LU2226246903.HKD":"ALLIANZ TOTAL RETURN ASIAN EQUITY \"AT4\" (HKD) ACC","LU0173614495.USD":"富达中国焦点A","HK0000914660.USD":"GFI Global Select Equity Fund Class A (USD)","LU1251922891.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF ALL CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0650527681.SGD":"Fidelity China Consumer A-SGD","HK0000288743.USD":"VALUE PARTNERS 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