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2022-05-27

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Nvidia Earnings: A Battle Of Sentiment Vs. Fundamentals

SummaryA rather surprising reaction from Nvidia stock after the close yesterday.Earnings were poor,

Nvidia Earnings: A Battle Of Sentiment Vs. Fundamentals

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Fundamentals","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2238693248","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"SummaryA rather surprising reaction from Nvidia stock after the close yesterday.Earnings were poor, ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>A rather surprising reaction from Nvidia stock after the close yesterday.</li><li>Earnings were poor, with growth decelerating and margins declining.</li><li>The stock contemplated a big drop but then maintained composure.</li><li>We own Nvidia stock in staff personal accounts but rate the name at Hold pending a full market reaction to earnings - we are not adding at this time, nor are we selling.</li><li>If the stock starts moving up, there is plenty of time to catch the upside.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2dbe430393052522ad4a7b9838c314a9\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>serg3d/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><b>Let&#39;s Not Overthink It</b></p><p>You can read elsewhere - like, literally <i>everywhere -</i> the details on where NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) went wrong this quarter. No doubt the reasons will include Russia, China, the weather, supply chains and almost certainly inflation and/or the Fed. Also, it rained in Wichita during the last week of the quarter and, as everyone knows, that can play havoc with your supply chain.</p><p>The bottom line though is that revenue growth slowed, accounting profit margins fell, and cash flow margins fell. The balance sheet remains a tower of strength and nobody is taking NVDA&#39;s crown away anytime soon - not Lisa Su, nobody. But slower is slower and lower is lower.</p><p>Here&#39;s the numbers.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7690d7b8fa8b7fc035da73cbf62bc881\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>NVDA Financials (Company SEC filings, YCharts.com, Cestrian Analysis)</span></p><p>You can see the company go on a revenue growth ramp then back off the gas from the July 2021 quarter. Margins continued to ramp until this quarter when they fell somewhat. So, not so hot.</p><p>Here&#39;s the valuation.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d598c96df273753524b7c2cba2150b9\" tg-width=\"237\" tg-height=\"349\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>NVDA Valuation (Company SEC filings, YCharts.com, Cestrian Analysis)</span></p><p>13x TTM revenue isn&#39;t nothing, and indeed at 53% growth, you are being asked to pay more at every level (cash flow multiple, EBITDA multiple, r*ven*e multiple - we starred that out as the phrase can easily offend right now) than for say <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a> at 65% growth.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3057f50df2a2677fe5de7125e9d096b3\" tg-width=\"323\" tg-height=\"459\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>AMD Valuation (Company SEC filings, YCharts.com, Cestrian Analysis)</span></p><p>So NVDA&#39;s fundamental valuation remains elevated but its financial fundamentals are slowing. Not a great combination and had the stock not already fallen off a cliff, you would say it was likely bad news for the stock price.</p><p>Fortunately, pestilence has already been visited upon growth stock valuations and there is talk that maybe, <i>maybe</i>, a bottom of sorts is in. Or at least that the panic is easing. And so the question of where next for NVDA&#39;s stock price is to our mind purely <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of sentiment. Sentiment flat, stock should drop pending improved fundamentals. Sentiment giddy at the thought of only 8% inflation (it&#39;s all about expectations!), stock could move up.</p><p>To us, that&#39;s not a stock we want to buy right now. We own NVDA in staff personal accounts and see no reason why it can&#39;t continue to be a solid long-term investment. Generally speaking, writing off these growth champs is usually a bad idea, even when they truly spoil your summer. They have a habit of roaring back, and we suspect NVDA will be no exception. But for now, we rate NVDA at Neutral pending a resolution in sentiment and/or improving company numbers.</p><p>Here&#39;s a chart to illustrate where the stock stands. You can open a full page version, here.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ed697547b08066a8d19ae7552c337eb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"335\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>NVDA Stock Chart (TradingView, Cestrian Analysis)</span></p><p>That might look a mess but it&#39;s simple really. Solid move up from Q4 2018 - Q4 2019. Craters in Q1-Q2 2020 along with everything else. Then, and get this, puts in a 5.618 Fibonacci extension of Wave 1 up from 2020-end 2021, which is one huge move up in any language you choose. And has thus far bottomed in a Wave 4 down right around the 0.618 retracement of that big move up. Chart logic says that the stock can rebound here and, yikes, maybe make new highs. And that can certainly happen. If it does however, there will be plenty of time to add to our holdings on the way up. And if it drops further, we&#39;d prefer to avoid the falling knife. So for now, doing nothing, Neutral rating. Positive long-term on the stock (hence not selling) and once we see a proven-out bottoming, likely to add.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia Earnings: A Battle Of Sentiment Vs. 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Fundamentals\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-27 17:36 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4514879-nvidia-q1-2023-earnings-sentiment-vs-fundamentals><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryA rather surprising reaction from Nvidia stock after the close yesterday.Earnings were poor, with growth decelerating and margins declining.The stock contemplated a big drop but then maintained...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4514879-nvidia-q1-2023-earnings-sentiment-vs-fundamentals\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4514879-nvidia-q1-2023-earnings-sentiment-vs-fundamentals","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2238693248","content_text":"SummaryA rather surprising reaction from Nvidia stock after the close yesterday.Earnings were poor, with growth decelerating and margins declining.The stock contemplated a big drop but then maintained composure.We own Nvidia stock in staff personal accounts but rate the name at Hold pending a full market reaction to earnings - we are not adding at this time, nor are we selling.If the stock starts moving up, there is plenty of time to catch the upside.serg3d/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesLet's Not Overthink ItYou can read elsewhere - like, literally everywhere - the details on where NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) went wrong this quarter. No doubt the reasons will include Russia, China, the weather, supply chains and almost certainly inflation and/or the Fed. Also, it rained in Wichita during the last week of the quarter and, as everyone knows, that can play havoc with your supply chain.The bottom line though is that revenue growth slowed, accounting profit margins fell, and cash flow margins fell. The balance sheet remains a tower of strength and nobody is taking NVDA's crown away anytime soon - not Lisa Su, nobody. But slower is slower and lower is lower.Here's the numbers.NVDA Financials (Company SEC filings, YCharts.com, Cestrian Analysis)You can see the company go on a revenue growth ramp then back off the gas from the July 2021 quarter. Margins continued to ramp until this quarter when they fell somewhat. So, not so hot.Here's the valuation.NVDA Valuation (Company SEC filings, YCharts.com, Cestrian Analysis)13x TTM revenue isn't nothing, and indeed at 53% growth, you are being asked to pay more at every level (cash flow multiple, EBITDA multiple, r*ven*e multiple - we starred that out as the phrase can easily offend right now) than for say AMD at 65% growth.AMD Valuation (Company SEC filings, YCharts.com, Cestrian Analysis)So NVDA's fundamental valuation remains elevated but its financial fundamentals are slowing. Not a great combination and had the stock not already fallen off a cliff, you would say it was likely bad news for the stock price.Fortunately, pestilence has already been visited upon growth stock valuations and there is talk that maybe, maybe, a bottom of sorts is in. Or at least that the panic is easing. And so the question of where next for NVDA's stock price is to our mind purely one of sentiment. Sentiment flat, stock should drop pending improved fundamentals. Sentiment giddy at the thought of only 8% inflation (it's all about expectations!), stock could move up.To us, that's not a stock we want to buy right now. We own NVDA in staff personal accounts and see no reason why it can't continue to be a solid long-term investment. Generally speaking, writing off these growth champs is usually a bad idea, even when they truly spoil your summer. They have a habit of roaring back, and we suspect NVDA will be no exception. But for now, we rate NVDA at Neutral pending a resolution in sentiment and/or improving company numbers.Here's a chart to illustrate where the stock stands. You can open a full page version, here.NVDA Stock Chart (TradingView, Cestrian Analysis)That might look a mess but it's simple really. Solid move up from Q4 2018 - Q4 2019. Craters in Q1-Q2 2020 along with everything else. Then, and get this, puts in a 5.618 Fibonacci extension of Wave 1 up from 2020-end 2021, which is one huge move up in any language you choose. And has thus far bottomed in a Wave 4 down right around the 0.618 retracement of that big move up. Chart logic says that the stock can rebound here and, yikes, maybe make new highs. And that can certainly happen. If it does however, there will be plenty of time to add to our holdings on the way up. And if it drops further, we'd prefer to avoid the falling knife. So for now, doing nothing, Neutral rating. Positive long-term on the stock (hence not selling) and once we see a proven-out bottoming, likely to add.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":641,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":3,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}