K_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

Mb76
2021-12-01

What Powell’s Hawkish Transition Could Mean for Asian Markets<blockquote>鲍威尔的鹰派转型对亚洲市场意味着什么</blockquote>

Strategists bearish on implications for Asia equities and FX Higher U.S. rates could trigger capital

What Powell’s Hawkish Transition Could Mean for Asian Markets<blockquote>鲍威尔的鹰派转型对亚洲市场意味着什么</blockquote>

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

推荐
最新

暂无评论

热议股票

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":603025507,"tweetId":"603025507","gmtCreate":1638342965288,"gmtModify":1638342965377,"author":{"id":4087701475296490,"idStr":"4087701475296490","authorId":4087701475296490,"authorIdStr":"4087701475296490","name":"Mb76","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":12,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>K</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>K</body></html>","text":"K","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/603025507","repostId":1136781080,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1136781080","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1638341251,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1136781080?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-01 14:47","market":"sh","language":"en","title":"What Powell’s Hawkish Transition Could Mean for Asian Markets<blockquote>鲍威尔的鹰派转型对亚洲市场意味着什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1136781080","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Strategists bearish on implications for Asia equities and FX\nHigher U.S. rates could trigger capital","content":"<ul> <li>Strategists bearish on implications for Asia equities and FX</li> <li>Higher U.S. rates could trigger capital flows out of region</li> </ul> Jerome Powell sent a stir through global markets Tuesday, paving the way for quicker-than-expected U.S. hikes, which would ripple through rate-sensitive Asian assets.<blockquote><ul><li>策略师对亚洲股市和外汇的影响持悲观态度</li><li>美国利率上升可能引发资本流出该地区</li></ul>杰罗姆·鲍威尔周二在全球市场引起轰动，为美国超预期加息铺平了道路，这将波及对利率敏感的亚洲资产。</blockquote> The Federal Reserve Chair&nbsp;told&nbsp;Congress that policymakers will discuss whether to wrap up bond purchases a few months earlier and retired the word “transitory” from his commentary on inflation. Higher U.S. rates would have a significant impact on Asian assets if capital flows to America. A stronger greenback has implications for Asia’s export-heavy companies and economies and the dollar-denominated debt of the region’s sovereign and corporate borrowers.<blockquote>美联储主席告诉国会，政策制定者将在几个月前讨论是否结束债券购买，并从他对通胀的评论中删除了“暂时”一词。如果资本流向美国，美国利率上升将对亚洲资产产生重大影响。美元走强对亚洲以出口为主的企业和经济体，以及该地区主权和企业借款人以美元计价的债务都有影响。</blockquote> Still, Asia stocks and currencies are rallying Wednesday with some strategists saying Powell’s comments about a faster taper weren’t unexpected. His nod toward the uncertainty caused by the omicron variant has also blunted the hawkish tone, according to Tomo Kinoshita, global market strategist at Invesco Asset Management.<blockquote>尽管如此，亚洲股市和货币周三仍在上涨，一些策略师表示，鲍威尔关于加快缩减规模的言论并不出人意料。景顺资产管理公司全球市场策略师Tomo Kinoshita表示，他对奥密克戎变体造成的不确定性的认可也削弱了鹰派基调。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe5fb6c8c29a959328a059ba71b72f5f\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> Here are the thoughts of Asia watchers on what Powell’s shift means for the region’s markets:<blockquote>以下是亚洲观察人士对鲍威尔的转变对该地区市场意味着什么的看法：</blockquote> Deferring to the Dollar<blockquote>遵从美元</blockquote> “Prospects of quicker taper and higher U.S. rates will stress test the allure of higher returns in EM Asia and as a consequence the ‘stickiness’ of funds parked in this part of the world,” said Vishnu Varathan, head of economics and strategy at Mizuho Bank Ltd in Singapore.<blockquote>瑞穗银行经济与战略主管Vishnu Varathan表示：“更快缩减规模和美国利率上升的前景将对亚洲新兴市场更高回报的吸引力进行压力测试，从而影响存放在世界这一地区的资金的‘粘性’。”银行有限公司位于新加坡。</blockquote> “We have long maintained that the outcome will be ‘KokomoFed,’ that gets there fast and then takes it slow after,” he said, referring to a Beach Boys song. “And this in turn will prompt a ‘Kokomo dollar,’ whereby the bias is for the dollar to be skewed to strength.”<blockquote>“我们长期以来一直坚持认为，结果将是‘KokomoFed’，快速到达那里，然后缓慢，”他说，指的是沙滩男孩的一首歌曲。“这反过来将催生‘科科莫美元’，即美元偏向强势。”</blockquote> Bad for High Beta<blockquote>不利于高贝塔</blockquote> “The threat of faster tapering is bad news for high-beta markets such as EM,” said Sue Trinh, managing director for global macro strategy at Manulife Investment Management in Hong Kong.<blockquote>宏利投资管理公司驻香港全球宏观策略董事总经理Sue Trinh表示：“对于新兴市场等高贝塔市场来说，更快缩减规模的威胁是个坏消息。”</blockquote> “Yet we have been of the view that Asia is well-placed within EM to withstand any potential monetary volatility -- inflation in Asia more contained and Asia is less reliant on foreign capital than other EM,” she said. “The not-so-good news for Asia is that the region is far too reliant on foreign demand to absorb its exports.”<blockquote>她说：“然而，我们一直认为，亚洲在新兴市场中处于有利地位，能够抵御任何潜在的货币波动——与其他新兴市场相比，亚洲的通胀得到了更好的控制，而且亚洲对外国资本的依赖程度较低。”“对亚洲来说，不太好的消息是该地区过于依赖外国需求来吸收其出口。”</blockquote> Risk Asset Pressure<blockquote>风险资产压力</blockquote> “Expect more pressure on risk assets in general, including Asian equities,” said Alvin T. Tan, head of Asia FX strategy at RBC Capital Markets in Hong Kong.<blockquote>加拿大皇家银行资本市场驻香港亚洲外汇策略主管Alvin T.Tan表示：“预计包括亚洲股市在内的整体风险资产将面临更大压力。”</blockquote> “However, Asian FX have held up really well in this latest risk-off bout, and that was because the whole market was furiously loading up on U.S. dollars right into the omicron news,” he added. “So it is U.S. dollars that are being unwound this time. In that way it has been an unusual ‘risk-off’ experience, though JPY has behaved more conventionally.”<blockquote>“然而，亚洲外汇在最近的这场避险回合中表现非常好，这是因为整个市场在奥密克戎新闻发布后疯狂买入美元，”他补充道。“因此，这一次美元被解除了赎回权。从这个角度来看，这是一次不寻常的‘避险’经历，尽管日元的表现更加传统。”</blockquote> Focus on Renminbi<blockquote>关注人民币</blockquote> “We expect the Thai baht to be most at risk, especially since it has an additional negative that the re-emergence of Covid-19 concerns will potentially further set back the return of tourism,” said Terence Wu, a foreign-exchange strategist at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. in Singapore.<blockquote>外汇策略师Terence Wu表示：“我们预计泰铢面临的风险最大，特别是因为它还有一个额外的负面影响，即Covid-19担忧的重新出现可能会进一步阻碍旅游业的回归。”新加坡华侨银行。</blockquote> “More importantly, we will be watching closely developments in the renminbi. The RMB has been strong on a basket basis, and that has sheltered the Asian currencies. Should the RMB start to show signs of weakness, expect the flow-through of dollar strength to the EM Asian currencies to be stronger.”<blockquote>“更重要的是，我们将密切关注人民币的发展。人民币在一篮子货币基础上一直走强，这对亚洲货币起到了保护作用。如果人民币开始出现疲软迹象，预计美元走强将会对亚洲新兴市场货币产生更强影响。”</blockquote> China Chance<blockquote>中国机会</blockquote> “Extreme dollar strength because of higher U.S. interest rates is a headwind for Asia and EM equities, but China and large Asean markets such as Indonesia could still outperform western markets in 2022 because of reversion to mean,” said Michael Rainer Preiss, portfolio strategist at Golden Equator Wealth. “China already had a big correction and the valuation argument for China equities is getting stronger.”<blockquote>投资组合策略师Michael Rainer Preiss表示：“由于美国利率上升，美元极度走强对亚洲和新兴市场股市来说是一个阻力，但由于回归均值，中国和印度尼西亚等大型东盟市场在2022年仍可能跑赢西方市场。”在金赤道财富。“中国已经经历了大幅调整，中国股市的估值论据越来越强。”</blockquote> Mixed Asian FX<blockquote>混合亚洲外汇</blockquote> “While Powell’s comments suggest the Fed could bring forward their rate hike to as soon as the middle of 2022, the dollar failed to rally on the back of this.,” said Khoon Goh, head of Asia research at Australia &amp; New Zealand Banking Group in Singapore. “This is likely because the Fed Chair’s statement is only matching market expectations.”<blockquote>澳大利亚和新西兰银行集团亚洲研究主管Khoon Goh表示：“虽然鲍威尔的言论表明美联储最早可能将加息提前至2022年年中，但美元未能在此基础上反弹。”在新加坡。“这很可能是因为美联储主席的声明只是符合市场预期。”</blockquote> “The impact on Asian FX will likely be mixed. With export growth still strong in the region, as shown by today’s stronger than expected Korean numbers, currencies of export driven economies like KRW, CNH and SGD will fare well. Prospects for higher U.S. yields could weigh slightly on IDR due to reduced foreign bond inflows. THB will be more influenced by how the Omicron variant may affect Thailand’s tourism reopening.”<blockquote>“对亚洲外汇的影响可能是喜忧参半。由于该地区的出口增长仍然强劲，正如今天强于预期的韩国数据所显示的那样，韩元、CNH和新加坡元等出口驱动型经济体的货币将表现良好。由于外国债券流入减少，美国收益率上升的前景可能会略微打压印度卢比。泰铢将更多地受到奥密克戎变种如何影响泰国旅游业重新开放的影响。”</blockquote> Thin Spreads<blockquote>稀薄价差</blockquote> The spread cushion on Asian dollar bonds from rising Treasury yields is “thin at best” with valuations near multi-year tights, with the exception of China’s property issuers, according to Ek Pon Tay, BNP Paribas Asset Management’s senior portfolio manager in Singapore.<blockquote>法国巴黎资产管理公司驻新加坡高级投资组合经理Ek Pon Tay表示，美国国债收益率上升对亚洲美元债券的利差缓冲“充其量很薄”，估值接近多年低点，但中国房地产发行人除外。</blockquote> Tay recommends investors overweight investment-grade rated China property credits as these issuers are likely to survive in the event of a prolonged sector downturn and valuations offer ample spread cushion versus others.<blockquote>Tay向投资者推荐跑赢大盘投资级评级的中华地产信贷，因为这些发行人可能会在行业长期低迷的情况下生存下来，而且估值与其他发行人相比提供了充足的利差缓冲。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What Powell’s Hawkish Transition Could Mean for Asian Markets<blockquote>鲍威尔的鹰派转型对亚洲市场意味着什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat Powell’s Hawkish Transition Could Mean for Asian Markets<blockquote>鲍威尔的鹰派转型对亚洲市场意味着什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBloomberg2021-12-01 14:47\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<ul> <li>Strategists bearish on implications for Asia equities and FX</li> <li>Higher U.S. rates could trigger capital flows out of region</li> </ul> Jerome Powell sent a stir through global markets Tuesday, paving the way for quicker-than-expected U.S. hikes, which would ripple through rate-sensitive Asian assets.<blockquote><ul><li>策略师对亚洲股市和外汇的影响持悲观态度</li><li>美国利率上升可能引发资本流出该地区</li></ul>杰罗姆·鲍威尔周二在全球市场引起轰动，为美国超预期加息铺平了道路，这将波及对利率敏感的亚洲资产。</blockquote> The Federal Reserve Chair&nbsp;told&nbsp;Congress that policymakers will discuss whether to wrap up bond purchases a few months earlier and retired the word “transitory” from his commentary on inflation. Higher U.S. rates would have a significant impact on Asian assets if capital flows to America. A stronger greenback has implications for Asia’s export-heavy companies and economies and the dollar-denominated debt of the region’s sovereign and corporate borrowers.<blockquote>美联储主席告诉国会，政策制定者将在几个月前讨论是否结束债券购买，并从他对通胀的评论中删除了“暂时”一词。如果资本流向美国，美国利率上升将对亚洲资产产生重大影响。美元走强对亚洲以出口为主的企业和经济体，以及该地区主权和企业借款人以美元计价的债务都有影响。</blockquote> Still, Asia stocks and currencies are rallying Wednesday with some strategists saying Powell’s comments about a faster taper weren’t unexpected. His nod toward the uncertainty caused by the omicron variant has also blunted the hawkish tone, according to Tomo Kinoshita, global market strategist at Invesco Asset Management.<blockquote>尽管如此，亚洲股市和货币周三仍在上涨，一些策略师表示，鲍威尔关于加快缩减规模的言论并不出人意料。景顺资产管理公司全球市场策略师Tomo Kinoshita表示，他对奥密克戎变体造成的不确定性的认可也削弱了鹰派基调。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe5fb6c8c29a959328a059ba71b72f5f\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> Here are the thoughts of Asia watchers on what Powell’s shift means for the region’s markets:<blockquote>以下是亚洲观察人士对鲍威尔的转变对该地区市场意味着什么的看法：</blockquote> Deferring to the Dollar<blockquote>遵从美元</blockquote> “Prospects of quicker taper and higher U.S. rates will stress test the allure of higher returns in EM Asia and as a consequence the ‘stickiness’ of funds parked in this part of the world,” said Vishnu Varathan, head of economics and strategy at Mizuho Bank Ltd in Singapore.<blockquote>瑞穗银行经济与战略主管Vishnu Varathan表示：“更快缩减规模和美国利率上升的前景将对亚洲新兴市场更高回报的吸引力进行压力测试，从而影响存放在世界这一地区的资金的‘粘性’。”银行有限公司位于新加坡。</blockquote> “We have long maintained that the outcome will be ‘KokomoFed,’ that gets there fast and then takes it slow after,” he said, referring to a Beach Boys song. “And this in turn will prompt a ‘Kokomo dollar,’ whereby the bias is for the dollar to be skewed to strength.”<blockquote>“我们长期以来一直坚持认为，结果将是‘KokomoFed’，快速到达那里，然后缓慢，”他说，指的是沙滩男孩的一首歌曲。“这反过来将催生‘科科莫美元’，即美元偏向强势。”</blockquote> Bad for High Beta<blockquote>不利于高贝塔</blockquote> “The threat of faster tapering is bad news for high-beta markets such as EM,” said Sue Trinh, managing director for global macro strategy at Manulife Investment Management in Hong Kong.<blockquote>宏利投资管理公司驻香港全球宏观策略董事总经理Sue Trinh表示：“对于新兴市场等高贝塔市场来说，更快缩减规模的威胁是个坏消息。”</blockquote> “Yet we have been of the view that Asia is well-placed within EM to withstand any potential monetary volatility -- inflation in Asia more contained and Asia is less reliant on foreign capital than other EM,” she said. “The not-so-good news for Asia is that the region is far too reliant on foreign demand to absorb its exports.”<blockquote>她说：“然而，我们一直认为，亚洲在新兴市场中处于有利地位，能够抵御任何潜在的货币波动——与其他新兴市场相比，亚洲的通胀得到了更好的控制，而且亚洲对外国资本的依赖程度较低。”“对亚洲来说，不太好的消息是该地区过于依赖外国需求来吸收其出口。”</blockquote> Risk Asset Pressure<blockquote>风险资产压力</blockquote> “Expect more pressure on risk assets in general, including Asian equities,” said Alvin T. Tan, head of Asia FX strategy at RBC Capital Markets in Hong Kong.<blockquote>加拿大皇家银行资本市场驻香港亚洲外汇策略主管Alvin T.Tan表示：“预计包括亚洲股市在内的整体风险资产将面临更大压力。”</blockquote> “However, Asian FX have held up really well in this latest risk-off bout, and that was because the whole market was furiously loading up on U.S. dollars right into the omicron news,” he added. “So it is U.S. dollars that are being unwound this time. In that way it has been an unusual ‘risk-off’ experience, though JPY has behaved more conventionally.”<blockquote>“然而，亚洲外汇在最近的这场避险回合中表现非常好，这是因为整个市场在奥密克戎新闻发布后疯狂买入美元，”他补充道。“因此，这一次美元被解除了赎回权。从这个角度来看，这是一次不寻常的‘避险’经历，尽管日元的表现更加传统。”</blockquote> Focus on Renminbi<blockquote>关注人民币</blockquote> “We expect the Thai baht to be most at risk, especially since it has an additional negative that the re-emergence of Covid-19 concerns will potentially further set back the return of tourism,” said Terence Wu, a foreign-exchange strategist at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. in Singapore.<blockquote>外汇策略师Terence Wu表示：“我们预计泰铢面临的风险最大，特别是因为它还有一个额外的负面影响，即Covid-19担忧的重新出现可能会进一步阻碍旅游业的回归。”新加坡华侨银行。</blockquote> “More importantly, we will be watching closely developments in the renminbi. The RMB has been strong on a basket basis, and that has sheltered the Asian currencies. Should the RMB start to show signs of weakness, expect the flow-through of dollar strength to the EM Asian currencies to be stronger.”<blockquote>“更重要的是，我们将密切关注人民币的发展。人民币在一篮子货币基础上一直走强，这对亚洲货币起到了保护作用。如果人民币开始出现疲软迹象，预计美元走强将会对亚洲新兴市场货币产生更强影响。”</blockquote> China Chance<blockquote>中国机会</blockquote> “Extreme dollar strength because of higher U.S. interest rates is a headwind for Asia and EM equities, but China and large Asean markets such as Indonesia could still outperform western markets in 2022 because of reversion to mean,” said Michael Rainer Preiss, portfolio strategist at Golden Equator Wealth. “China already had a big correction and the valuation argument for China equities is getting stronger.”<blockquote>投资组合策略师Michael Rainer Preiss表示：“由于美国利率上升，美元极度走强对亚洲和新兴市场股市来说是一个阻力，但由于回归均值，中国和印度尼西亚等大型东盟市场在2022年仍可能跑赢西方市场。”在金赤道财富。“中国已经经历了大幅调整，中国股市的估值论据越来越强。”</blockquote> Mixed Asian FX<blockquote>混合亚洲外汇</blockquote> “While Powell’s comments suggest the Fed could bring forward their rate hike to as soon as the middle of 2022, the dollar failed to rally on the back of this.,” said Khoon Goh, head of Asia research at Australia &amp; New Zealand Banking Group in Singapore. “This is likely because the Fed Chair’s statement is only matching market expectations.”<blockquote>澳大利亚和新西兰银行集团亚洲研究主管Khoon Goh表示：“虽然鲍威尔的言论表明美联储最早可能将加息提前至2022年年中，但美元未能在此基础上反弹。”在新加坡。“这很可能是因为美联储主席的声明只是符合市场预期。”</blockquote> “The impact on Asian FX will likely be mixed. With export growth still strong in the region, as shown by today’s stronger than expected Korean numbers, currencies of export driven economies like KRW, CNH and SGD will fare well. Prospects for higher U.S. yields could weigh slightly on IDR due to reduced foreign bond inflows. THB will be more influenced by how the Omicron variant may affect Thailand’s tourism reopening.”<blockquote>“对亚洲外汇的影响可能是喜忧参半。由于该地区的出口增长仍然强劲，正如今天强于预期的韩国数据所显示的那样，韩元、CNH和新加坡元等出口驱动型经济体的货币将表现良好。由于外国债券流入减少，美国收益率上升的前景可能会略微打压印度卢比。泰铢将更多地受到奥密克戎变种如何影响泰国旅游业重新开放的影响。”</blockquote> Thin Spreads<blockquote>稀薄价差</blockquote> The spread cushion on Asian dollar bonds from rising Treasury yields is “thin at best” with valuations near multi-year tights, with the exception of China’s property issuers, according to Ek Pon Tay, BNP Paribas Asset Management’s senior portfolio manager in Singapore.<blockquote>法国巴黎资产管理公司驻新加坡高级投资组合经理Ek Pon Tay表示，美国国债收益率上升对亚洲美元债券的利差缓冲“充其量很薄”，估值接近多年低点，但中国房地产发行人除外。</blockquote> Tay recommends investors overweight investment-grade rated China property credits as these issuers are likely to survive in the event of a prolonged sector downturn and valuations offer ample spread cushion versus others.<blockquote>Tay向投资者推荐跑赢大盘投资级评级的中华地产信贷，因为这些发行人可能会在行业长期低迷的情况下生存下来，而且估值与其他发行人相比提供了充足的利差缓冲。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-01/what-powell-s-hawkish-transition-could-mean-for-asian-markets\">Bloomberg</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-01/what-powell-s-hawkish-transition-could-mean-for-asian-markets","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1136781080","content_text":"Strategists bearish on implications for Asia equities and FX\nHigher U.S. rates could trigger capital flows out of region\n\nJerome Powell sent a stir through global markets Tuesday, paving the way for quicker-than-expected U.S. hikes, which would ripple through rate-sensitive Asian assets.\nThe Federal Reserve Chair told Congress that policymakers will discuss whether to wrap up bond purchases a few months earlier and retired the word “transitory” from his commentary on inflation. Higher U.S. rates would have a significant impact on Asian assets if capital flows to America. A stronger greenback has implications for Asia’s export-heavy companies and economies and the dollar-denominated debt of the region’s sovereign and corporate borrowers.\nStill, Asia stocks and currencies are rallying Wednesday with some strategists saying Powell’s comments about a faster taper weren’t unexpected. His nod toward the uncertainty caused by the omicron variant has also blunted the hawkish tone, according to Tomo Kinoshita, global market strategist at Invesco Asset Management.\n\nHere are the thoughts of Asia watchers on what Powell’s shift means for the region’s markets:\nDeferring to the Dollar\n“Prospects of quicker taper and higher U.S. rates will stress test the allure of higher returns in EM Asia and as a consequence the ‘stickiness’ of funds parked in this part of the world,” said Vishnu Varathan, head of economics and strategy at Mizuho Bank Ltd in Singapore.\n“We have long maintained that the outcome will be ‘KokomoFed,’ that gets there fast and then takes it slow after,” he said, referring to a Beach Boys song. “And this in turn will prompt a ‘Kokomo dollar,’ whereby the bias is for the dollar to be skewed to strength.”\nBad for High Beta\n“The threat of faster tapering is bad news for high-beta markets such as EM,” said Sue Trinh, managing director for global macro strategy at Manulife Investment Management in Hong Kong.\n“Yet we have been of the view that Asia is well-placed within EM to withstand any potential monetary volatility -- inflation in Asia more contained and Asia is less reliant on foreign capital than other EM,” she said. “The not-so-good news for Asia is that the region is far too reliant on foreign demand to absorb its exports.”\nRisk Asset Pressure\n“Expect more pressure on risk assets in general, including Asian equities,” said Alvin T. Tan, head of Asia FX strategy at RBC Capital Markets in Hong Kong.\n“However, Asian FX have held up really well in this latest risk-off bout, and that was because the whole market was furiously loading up on U.S. dollars right into the omicron news,” he added. “So it is U.S. dollars that are being unwound this time. In that way it has been an unusual ‘risk-off’ experience, though JPY has behaved more conventionally.”\nFocus on Renminbi\n“We expect the Thai baht to be most at risk, especially since it has an additional negative that the re-emergence of Covid-19 concerns will potentially further set back the return of tourism,” said Terence Wu, a foreign-exchange strategist at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. in Singapore.\n“More importantly, we will be watching closely developments in the renminbi. The RMB has been strong on a basket basis, and that has sheltered the Asian currencies. Should the RMB start to show signs of weakness, expect the flow-through of dollar strength to the EM Asian currencies to be stronger.”\nChina Chance\n“Extreme dollar strength because of higher U.S. interest rates is a headwind for Asia and EM equities, but China and large Asean markets such as Indonesia could still outperform western markets in 2022 because of reversion to mean,” said Michael Rainer Preiss, portfolio strategist at Golden Equator Wealth. “China already had a big correction and the valuation argument for China equities is getting stronger.”\nMixed Asian FX\n“While Powell’s comments suggest the Fed could bring forward their rate hike to as soon as the middle of 2022, the dollar failed to rally on the back of this.,” said Khoon Goh, head of Asia research at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group in Singapore. “This is likely because the Fed Chair’s statement is only matching market expectations.”\n“The impact on Asian FX will likely be mixed. With export growth still strong in the region, as shown by today’s stronger than expected Korean numbers, currencies of export driven economies like KRW, CNH and SGD will fare well. Prospects for higher U.S. yields could weigh slightly on IDR due to reduced foreign bond inflows. THB will be more influenced by how the Omicron variant may affect Thailand’s tourism reopening.”\nThin Spreads\nThe spread cushion on Asian dollar bonds from rising Treasury yields is “thin at best” with valuations near multi-year tights, with the exception of China’s property issuers, according to Ek Pon Tay, BNP Paribas Asset Management’s senior portfolio manager in Singapore.\nTay recommends investors overweight investment-grade rated China property credits as these issuers are likely to survive in the event of a prolonged sector downturn and valuations offer ample spread cushion versus others.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2313,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}

What Powell’s Hawkish Transition Could Mean for Asian Markets<blockquote>鲍威尔的鹰派转型对亚洲市场意味着什么</blockquote>

评论（1）

热议股票