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tks45
2021-11-29

A well written article on how inflation seems to be rather uncertain as of yet. Best to ride it out, and wait for countries to reopen gradually. Stay safe everyone!

10 reasons not to panic about inflation just yet<blockquote>暂时不要对通胀感到恐慌的10个理由</blockquote>

Retirees face few financial risks as big as inflation. When we get older we tend to invest more in s

10 reasons not to panic about inflation just yet<blockquote>暂时不要对通胀感到恐慌的10个理由</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":600412041,"tweetId":"600412041","gmtCreate":1638186450709,"gmtModify":1638186600853,"author":{"id":3576283378812647,"idStr":"3576283378812647","authorId":3576283378812647,"authorIdStr":"3576283378812647","name":"tks45","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":1,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>A well written article on how inflation seems to be rather uncertain as of yet. Best to ride it out, and wait for countries to reopen gradually. Stay safe everyone! </body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>A well written article on how inflation seems to be rather uncertain as of yet. Best to ride it out, and wait for countries to reopen gradually. Stay safe everyone! </body></html>","text":"A well written article on how inflation seems to be rather uncertain as of yet. Best to ride it out, and wait for countries to reopen gradually. Stay safe everyone!","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/600412041","repostId":1118412424,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1118412424","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1638175767,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1118412424?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-29 16:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"10 reasons not to panic about inflation just yet<blockquote>暂时不要对通胀感到恐慌的10个理由</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1118412424","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Retirees face few financial risks as big as inflation. When we get older we tend to invest more in s","content":"Retirees face few financial risks as big as inflation. When we get older we tend to invest more in stable, income-generating bonds than volatile stocks – and bonds, whose payments are fixed, suffer much more if consumer prices&nbsp;rise? fall?&nbsp;more than expected.<blockquote>退休人员面临的财务风险很少像通货膨胀那么大。随着年龄的增长，我们倾向于更多地投资于稳定的、能产生收入的债券，而不是波动较大的股票。而债券的支付是固定的，如果消费价格上涨，它们的损失会更大？下降？超出预期。</blockquote> No wonder these are uncomfortable times for retirees. Consumer inflation hit 6.2% last month, the highest level in 30 years.<blockquote>难怪现在是退休人员不舒服的时期。上个月消费者通胀率达到6.2%，为30年来的最高水平。</blockquote> So naturally the same Acela-corridor conventional wisdom that said there wouldn’t be any inflation is now saying it is here to stay. Past Federal Reserve comments, that inflation is likely to be “transitory,” are now under fire.<blockquote>因此，很自然地，同样的Acela-corridor传统智慧说不会有任何通货膨胀，现在说它会持续下去。美联储过去关于通胀可能是“暂时的”的评论现在受到了批评。</blockquote> Bah.<blockquote>呸。</blockquote> Maybe inflation is here to stay, maybe it isn’t. But before these people panic you, here are&nbsp;10&nbsp;points to bear in mind.<blockquote>也许通货膨胀会持续下去，也许不会。但是在这些人让你恐慌之前，这里有10点要记住。</blockquote> <ol> <li>The size of current inflation, and whether or not it is “transitory,” are completely different things. That’s like confusing the volume of a song with its duration, or the height of the Empire State Building with its width. Transitory doesn’t refer to the size of current inflation, only to how long it is going to last. Inflation could, for example, run really, really hot for six months and then collapse. So the current surge in inflation might lead to sustained inflation or it might not. But we don’t know. Anyone confusing the two can safely be ignored.</li> <li>The story of the 1970s doesn’t prove anything. As someone who once trained to become a professional historian I laugh when people tell me history doesn’t repeat but it “rhymes.” Sometimes it rhymes, sometimes it doesn’t. As the Greek philosopher Heraclitus once said, no one can pass through the same stream twice because the second time it’s not the same stream – and you’re no longer the same person. Everything changes.</li> <li>If inflation is no longer “transitory,” someone has to explain to me why the bond market is still predicting inflation of no more than 2.6% for the next 10 years. And that’s still an average, which includes the current, hot, reading. In other words the bond market is still expecting inflation to come back down, to just above 2%, for most of the next decade. What do these people know that the bond market doesn’t?</li> <li>Actually, if all these people are so certain that we are heading for 1970s style inflation they have to explain to me why they are still writing for a living, when they could quit their jobs, bet on soaring inflation using financial options and derivatives, and make a billion dollars. Why are they even bothering to go into the office? The Eurodollar market is still predicting that short-term interest rates will be about 2% in five years’ time. If you know we’re about to party like it’s 1973, that’s an easy one-way bet. Call us from your yacht!</li> <li>If inflation is definitely here to stay, why isn’t gold&nbsp;through the roof? Instead the traditional inflation hedge is down 7% so far this year, and it’s lower than it was in 2012.</li> <li>The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco reckons that most of the inflation we’re seeing is due to short-term factors resulting from the pandemic, and argues that the inflation from underlying, long-term forces is no higher than it was a few years ago, when everyone was fretting about deflation, not inflation. Are they wrong? If so, why?</li> <li>One key factor: Our society is still getting older, and we are going to have increasingly more elderly people and retirees supported by a smaller share of workers. SG Securities’ strategist Albert Edwards, citing research by independent economist Eric Basmajian, suspects that is deflationary, not inflationary. And – with the Heraclitus caveat mentioned above — the example of Japan would seem to agree. Aging Japan has been stuck in a deflationary cycle for decades, despite epic amounts of deficit financing and money printing.</li> <li>Yes, wages are rising and employers can’t get enough staff at current salaries. And yes, that’s inflationary, as it was during the union-dominated 1970s. But… not only are private-sector unions not what they were, but today automation and technological innovation are replacing labor at incredible rates. What will online shopping mean for retail rents? Or working from home for office rents? I write a lot about nursing homes and nursing care,&nbsp;subjects close to the heart of retirees. There are shortages of skilled labor, and that should drive up wages. On the other hand, a lot of tasks that used to involve skilled labor can now be cheaply replaced by technology. A $300 Apple Watch&nbsp;can now monitor the vital signs of a nursing home resident 24/7 — something that once required a full team of skilled personnel. Is this inflationary or deflationary?</li> <li>Inflation isn’t a price level, it’s an ongoing annual change in prices. For example, in the past year crude oil prices have jumped from about $45 a barrel to $78 a barrel, a rise of about 73%. As Liberum strategist Joachim Klement points out, there is a very close historic connection between one-year changes in the oil price and one-year changes in U.S. consumer price. But the question here is not what has just happened to oil prices, but what will happen next. Do we expect them to rise another 73% in the next 12 months, to $134 a barrel? And then another 73% by November 2023, to $233 a barrel (easily an all-time record)? OK, so it’s more complicated than that: One year’s jump in oil prices raises other costs, which then feed through the system. On the other hand, if oil prices continue to skyrocket like that, how would that not do what skyrocketing oil prices did back in 2008 – help tip the U.S. consumer into recession? Extrapolating recent price gains into the future may prove to be like trying to drive a car by<blockquote><ol><li>当前通胀的规模，以及它是否是“暂时的”，是完全不同的事情。这就像混淆了一首歌的音量和它的持续时间，或者帝国大厦的高度和它的宽度。暂时性并不是指当前通货膨胀的规模，而是指它将持续多久。例如，通货膨胀可能会持续六个月，然后崩溃。因此，当前通胀飙升可能会导致持续通胀，也可能不会。但我们不知道。任何混淆这两者的人都可以被安全地忽略。</li><li>20世纪70年代的故事证明不了什么。作为一个曾经被训练成为专业历史学家的人，当人们告诉我历史不会重演，但它“押韵”时，我会笑。有时候押韵，有时候不押韵。正如希腊哲学家赫拉克利特曾经说过的，没有人能两次穿过同一条溪流，因为第二次它就不是同一条溪流了——你也不再是同一个人了。一切都变了。</li><li>如果通胀不再是“暂时性的”，就得有人向我解释一下，为什么债券市场仍在预测未来10年的通胀率不超过2.6%。这仍然是平均值，其中包括当前、热、读数。换句话说，债券市场仍预计未来十年的大部分时间通胀率将回落至略高于2%。这些人知道什么是债券市场不知道的？</li><li>事实上，如果所有这些人都如此确定我们正在走向20世纪70年代式的通货膨胀，他们必须向我解释为什么他们仍然以写作为生，什么时候他们可以辞职，利用金融期权和衍生品押注飙升的通货膨胀，并赚10亿美元。他们为什么还要费心去办公室？欧洲美元市场仍在预测五年后短期利率将在2%左右。如果你知道我们要像1973年一样狂欢，这是一个简单的单向赌注。从你的游艇上看涨期权我们！</li><li>如果通货膨胀肯定会持续下去，为什么黄金没有飙升？相反，今年迄今为止，传统的通胀对冲已下降7%，低于2012年。</li><li>旧金山联邦储备银行认为，我们看到的大部分通货膨胀是由疫情造成的短期因素造成的，并认为潜在的长期力量造成的通货膨胀并不比几年前高。几年前，当每个人都在担心通货紧缩，而不是通货膨胀。他们错了吗？如果是，为什么？</li><li>一个关键因素是：我们的社会仍在老龄化，我们将有越来越多的老年人和退休人员由越来越少的工人养活。SG Securities策略师Albert Edwards援引独立经济学家Eric Basmajian的研究怀疑这是通货紧缩，而不是通货膨胀。而且——根据上面提到的赫拉克利特的警告——日本的例子似乎与此相符。尽管巨额赤字融资和印钞，老龄化的日本几十年来一直陷入通缩循环。</li><li>是的，工资在上涨，雇主以目前的工资找不到足够的员工。是的，这就是通货膨胀，就像工会主导的20世纪70年代一样。但是……不仅私营部门的工会今非昔比，而且今天自动化和技术创新正在以令人难以置信的速度取代劳动力。网上购物对零售租金意味着什么？还是为了办公室租金在家工作？我写了很多关于疗养院和护理的文章，这些都是退休人员最关心的话题。熟练劳动力短缺，这应该会推高工资。另一方面，许多过去需要熟练劳动力的任务现在可以被技术廉价地取代。一只300美元的苹果手表现在可以全天候监测养老院居民的生命体征——这曾经需要一个完整的技术人员团队。这是通货膨胀还是通货紧缩？</li><li>通货膨胀不是价格水平，而是价格持续的年度变化。例如，过去一年原油价格从每桶约45美元跃升至每桶78美元，涨幅约为73%。正如Liberum策略师Joachim Klement指出的那样，油价的一年变化与美国消费者价格的一年变化之间存在非常密切的历史联系。但这里的问题不是油价刚刚发生了什么，而是接下来会发生什么。我们预计它们会在未来12个月内再上涨73%，达到每桶134美元吗？然后到2023年11月再上涨73%，达到每桶233美元（轻松创下历史纪录）？好吧，事情比这更复杂：油价一年的上涨会提高其他成本，然后通过系统传递。另一方面，如果油价继续这样飙升，这怎么可能不像2008年油价飙升那样帮助美国消费者陷入衰退呢？将最近的价格上涨推断到未来可能就像试图驾驶汽车一样</li></ol></blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>10 reasons not to panic about inflation just yet<blockquote>暂时不要对通胀感到恐慌的10个理由</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n10 reasons not to panic about inflation just yet<blockquote>暂时不要对通胀感到恐慌的10个理由</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-11-29 16:49\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nRetirees face few financial risks as big as inflation. When we get older we tend to invest more in stable, income-generating bonds than volatile stocks – and bonds, whose payments are fixed, suffer much more if consumer prices&nbsp;rise? fall?&nbsp;more than expected.<blockquote>退休人员面临的财务风险很少像通货膨胀那么大。随着年龄的增长，我们倾向于更多地投资于稳定的、能产生收入的债券，而不是波动较大的股票。而债券的支付是固定的，如果消费价格上涨，它们的损失会更大？下降？超出预期。</blockquote> No wonder these are uncomfortable times for retirees. Consumer inflation hit 6.2% last month, the highest level in 30 years.<blockquote>难怪现在是退休人员不舒服的时期。上个月消费者通胀率达到6.2%，为30年来的最高水平。</blockquote> So naturally the same Acela-corridor conventional wisdom that said there wouldn’t be any inflation is now saying it is here to stay. Past Federal Reserve comments, that inflation is likely to be “transitory,” are now under fire.<blockquote>因此，很自然地，同样的Acela-corridor传统智慧说不会有任何通货膨胀，现在说它会持续下去。美联储过去关于通胀可能是“暂时的”的评论现在受到了批评。</blockquote> Bah.<blockquote>呸。</blockquote> Maybe inflation is here to stay, maybe it isn’t. But before these people panic you, here are&nbsp;10&nbsp;points to bear in mind.<blockquote>也许通货膨胀会持续下去，也许不会。但是在这些人让你恐慌之前，这里有10点要记住。</blockquote> <ol> <li>The size of current inflation, and whether or not it is “transitory,” are completely different things. That’s like confusing the volume of a song with its duration, or the height of the Empire State Building with its width. Transitory doesn’t refer to the size of current inflation, only to how long it is going to last. Inflation could, for example, run really, really hot for six months and then collapse. So the current surge in inflation might lead to sustained inflation or it might not. But we don’t know. Anyone confusing the two can safely be ignored.</li> <li>The story of the 1970s doesn’t prove anything. As someone who once trained to become a professional historian I laugh when people tell me history doesn’t repeat but it “rhymes.” Sometimes it rhymes, sometimes it doesn’t. As the Greek philosopher Heraclitus once said, no one can pass through the same stream twice because the second time it’s not the same stream – and you’re no longer the same person. Everything changes.</li> <li>If inflation is no longer “transitory,” someone has to explain to me why the bond market is still predicting inflation of no more than 2.6% for the next 10 years. And that’s still an average, which includes the current, hot, reading. In other words the bond market is still expecting inflation to come back down, to just above 2%, for most of the next decade. What do these people know that the bond market doesn’t?</li> <li>Actually, if all these people are so certain that we are heading for 1970s style inflation they have to explain to me why they are still writing for a living, when they could quit their jobs, bet on soaring inflation using financial options and derivatives, and make a billion dollars. Why are they even bothering to go into the office? The Eurodollar market is still predicting that short-term interest rates will be about 2% in five years’ time. If you know we’re about to party like it’s 1973, that’s an easy one-way bet. Call us from your yacht!</li> <li>If inflation is definitely here to stay, why isn’t gold&nbsp;through the roof? Instead the traditional inflation hedge is down 7% so far this year, and it’s lower than it was in 2012.</li> <li>The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco reckons that most of the inflation we’re seeing is due to short-term factors resulting from the pandemic, and argues that the inflation from underlying, long-term forces is no higher than it was a few years ago, when everyone was fretting about deflation, not inflation. Are they wrong? If so, why?</li> <li>One key factor: Our society is still getting older, and we are going to have increasingly more elderly people and retirees supported by a smaller share of workers. SG Securities’ strategist Albert Edwards, citing research by independent economist Eric Basmajian, suspects that is deflationary, not inflationary. And – with the Heraclitus caveat mentioned above — the example of Japan would seem to agree. Aging Japan has been stuck in a deflationary cycle for decades, despite epic amounts of deficit financing and money printing.</li> <li>Yes, wages are rising and employers can’t get enough staff at current salaries. And yes, that’s inflationary, as it was during the union-dominated 1970s. But… not only are private-sector unions not what they were, but today automation and technological innovation are replacing labor at incredible rates. What will online shopping mean for retail rents? Or working from home for office rents? I write a lot about nursing homes and nursing care,&nbsp;subjects close to the heart of retirees. There are shortages of skilled labor, and that should drive up wages. On the other hand, a lot of tasks that used to involve skilled labor can now be cheaply replaced by technology. A $300 Apple Watch&nbsp;can now monitor the vital signs of a nursing home resident 24/7 — something that once required a full team of skilled personnel. Is this inflationary or deflationary?</li> <li>Inflation isn’t a price level, it’s an ongoing annual change in prices. For example, in the past year crude oil prices have jumped from about $45 a barrel to $78 a barrel, a rise of about 73%. As Liberum strategist Joachim Klement points out, there is a very close historic connection between one-year changes in the oil price and one-year changes in U.S. consumer price. But the question here is not what has just happened to oil prices, but what will happen next. Do we expect them to rise another 73% in the next 12 months, to $134 a barrel? And then another 73% by November 2023, to $233 a barrel (easily an all-time record)? OK, so it’s more complicated than that: One year’s jump in oil prices raises other costs, which then feed through the system. On the other hand, if oil prices continue to skyrocket like that, how would that not do what skyrocketing oil prices did back in 2008 – help tip the U.S. consumer into recession? Extrapolating recent price gains into the future may prove to be like trying to drive a car by<blockquote><ol><li>当前通胀的规模，以及它是否是“暂时的”，是完全不同的事情。这就像混淆了一首歌的音量和它的持续时间，或者帝国大厦的高度和它的宽度。暂时性并不是指当前通货膨胀的规模，而是指它将持续多久。例如，通货膨胀可能会持续六个月，然后崩溃。因此，当前通胀飙升可能会导致持续通胀，也可能不会。但我们不知道。任何混淆这两者的人都可以被安全地忽略。</li><li>20世纪70年代的故事证明不了什么。作为一个曾经被训练成为专业历史学家的人，当人们告诉我历史不会重演，但它“押韵”时，我会笑。有时候押韵，有时候不押韵。正如希腊哲学家赫拉克利特曾经说过的，没有人能两次穿过同一条溪流，因为第二次它就不是同一条溪流了——你也不再是同一个人了。一切都变了。</li><li>如果通胀不再是“暂时性的”，就得有人向我解释一下，为什么债券市场仍在预测未来10年的通胀率不超过2.6%。这仍然是平均值，其中包括当前、热、读数。换句话说，债券市场仍预计未来十年的大部分时间通胀率将回落至略高于2%。这些人知道什么是债券市场不知道的？</li><li>事实上，如果所有这些人都如此确定我们正在走向20世纪70年代式的通货膨胀，他们必须向我解释为什么他们仍然以写作为生，什么时候他们可以辞职，利用金融期权和衍生品押注飙升的通货膨胀，并赚10亿美元。他们为什么还要费心去办公室？欧洲美元市场仍在预测五年后短期利率将在2%左右。如果你知道我们要像1973年一样狂欢，这是一个简单的单向赌注。从你的游艇上看涨期权我们！</li><li>如果通货膨胀肯定会持续下去，为什么黄金没有飙升？相反，今年迄今为止，传统的通胀对冲已下降7%，低于2012年。</li><li>旧金山联邦储备银行认为，我们看到的大部分通货膨胀是由疫情造成的短期因素造成的，并认为潜在的长期力量造成的通货膨胀并不比几年前高。几年前，当每个人都在担心通货紧缩，而不是通货膨胀。他们错了吗？如果是，为什么？</li><li>一个关键因素是：我们的社会仍在老龄化，我们将有越来越多的老年人和退休人员由越来越少的工人养活。SG Securities策略师Albert Edwards援引独立经济学家Eric Basmajian的研究怀疑这是通货紧缩，而不是通货膨胀。而且——根据上面提到的赫拉克利特的警告——日本的例子似乎与此相符。尽管巨额赤字融资和印钞，老龄化的日本几十年来一直陷入通缩循环。</li><li>是的，工资在上涨，雇主以目前的工资找不到足够的员工。是的，这就是通货膨胀，就像工会主导的20世纪70年代一样。但是……不仅私营部门的工会今非昔比，而且今天自动化和技术创新正在以令人难以置信的速度取代劳动力。网上购物对零售租金意味着什么？还是为了办公室租金在家工作？我写了很多关于疗养院和护理的文章，这些都是退休人员最关心的话题。熟练劳动力短缺，这应该会推高工资。另一方面，许多过去需要熟练劳动力的任务现在可以被技术廉价地取代。一只300美元的苹果手表现在可以全天候监测养老院居民的生命体征——这曾经需要一个完整的技术人员团队。这是通货膨胀还是通货紧缩？</li><li>通货膨胀不是价格水平，而是价格持续的年度变化。例如，过去一年原油价格从每桶约45美元跃升至每桶78美元，涨幅约为73%。正如Liberum策略师Joachim Klement指出的那样，油价的一年变化与美国消费者价格的一年变化之间存在非常密切的历史联系。但这里的问题不是油价刚刚发生了什么，而是接下来会发生什么。我们预计它们会在未来12个月内再上涨73%，达到每桶134美元吗？然后到2023年11月再上涨73%，达到每桶233美元（轻松创下历史纪录）？好吧，事情比这更复杂：油价一年的上涨会提高其他成本，然后通过系统传递。另一方面，如果油价继续这样飙升，这怎么可能不像2008年油价飙升那样帮助美国消费者陷入衰退呢？将最近的价格上涨推断到未来可能就像试图驾驶汽车一样</li></ol></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/10-reasons-not-to-panic-about-inflation-just-yet-11637968251?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/10-reasons-not-to-panic-about-inflation-just-yet-11637968251?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1118412424","content_text":"Retirees face few financial risks as big as inflation. When we get older we tend to invest more in stable, income-generating bonds than volatile stocks – and bonds, whose payments are fixed, suffer much more if consumer prices rise? fall? more than expected.\nNo wonder these are uncomfortable times for retirees. Consumer inflation hit 6.2% last month, the highest level in 30 years.\nSo naturally the same Acela-corridor conventional wisdom that said there wouldn’t be any inflation is now saying it is here to stay. Past Federal Reserve comments, that inflation is likely to be “transitory,” are now under fire.\nBah.\nMaybe inflation is here to stay, maybe it isn’t. But before these people panic you, here are 10 points to bear in mind.\n\nThe size of current inflation, and whether or not it is “transitory,” are completely different things. That’s like confusing the volume of a song with its duration, or the height of the Empire State Building with its width. Transitory doesn’t refer to the size of current inflation, only to how long it is going to last. Inflation could, for example, run really, really hot for six months and then collapse. So the current surge in inflation might lead to sustained inflation or it might not. But we don’t know. Anyone confusing the two can safely be ignored.\nThe story of the 1970s doesn’t prove anything. As someone who once trained to become a professional historian I laugh when people tell me history doesn’t repeat but it “rhymes.” Sometimes it rhymes, sometimes it doesn’t. As the Greek philosopher Heraclitus once said, no one can pass through the same stream twice because the second time it’s not the same stream – and you’re no longer the same person. Everything changes.\nIf inflation is no longer “transitory,” someone has to explain to me why the bond market is still predicting inflation of no more than 2.6% for the next 10 years. And that’s still an average, which includes the current, hot, reading. In other words the bond market is still expecting inflation to come back down, to just above 2%, for most of the next decade. What do these people know that the bond market doesn’t?\nActually, if all these people are so certain that we are heading for 1970s style inflation they have to explain to me why they are still writing for a living, when they could quit their jobs, bet on soaring inflation using financial options and derivatives, and make a billion dollars. Why are they even bothering to go into the office? The Eurodollar market is still predicting that short-term interest rates will be about 2% in five years’ time. If you know we’re about to party like it’s 1973, that’s an easy one-way bet. Call us from your yacht!\nIf inflation is definitely here to stay, why isn’t gold through the roof? Instead the traditional inflation hedge is down 7% so far this year, and it’s lower than it was in 2012.\nThe Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco reckons that most of the inflation we’re seeing is due to short-term factors resulting from the pandemic, and argues that the inflation from underlying, long-term forces is no higher than it was a few years ago, when everyone was fretting about deflation, not inflation. Are they wrong? If so, why?\nOne key factor: Our society is still getting older, and we are going to have increasingly more elderly people and retirees supported by a smaller share of workers. SG Securities’ strategist Albert Edwards, citing research by independent economist Eric Basmajian, suspects that is deflationary, not inflationary. And – with the Heraclitus caveat mentioned above — the example of Japan would seem to agree. Aging Japan has been stuck in a deflationary cycle for decades, despite epic amounts of deficit financing and money printing.\nYes, wages are rising and employers can’t get enough staff at current salaries. And yes, that’s inflationary, as it was during the union-dominated 1970s. But… not only are private-sector unions not what they were, but today automation and technological innovation are replacing labor at incredible rates. What will online shopping mean for retail rents? Or working from home for office rents? I write a lot about nursing homes and nursing care, subjects close to the heart of retirees. There are shortages of skilled labor, and that should drive up wages. On the other hand, a lot of tasks that used to involve skilled labor can now be cheaply replaced by technology. A $300 Apple Watch can now monitor the vital signs of a nursing home resident 24/7 — something that once required a full team of skilled personnel. Is this inflationary or deflationary?\nInflation isn’t a price level, it’s an ongoing annual change in prices. For example, in the past year crude oil prices have jumped from about $45 a barrel to $78 a barrel, a rise of about 73%. As Liberum strategist Joachim Klement points out, there is a very close historic connection between one-year changes in the oil price and one-year changes in U.S. consumer price. But the question here is not what has just happened to oil prices, but what will happen next. Do we expect them to rise another 73% in the next 12 months, to $134 a barrel? And then another 73% by November 2023, to $233 a barrel (easily an all-time record)? OK, so it’s more complicated than that: One year’s jump in oil prices raises other costs, which then feed through the system. On the other hand, if oil prices continue to skyrocket like that, how would that not do what skyrocketing oil prices did back in 2008 – help tip the U.S. consumer into recession? Extrapolating recent price gains into the future may prove to be like trying to drive a car by looking in the rear view mirror.\nFinally: I remember many years ago taking part in an absolutely fascinating business school simulation known as the “beer game”. I don’t want to spoil the experience for others, but the game simulates a supply chain under conditions of uncertainty. The stunning conclusion is how much small changes at one end of a chain can produce gigantic, alternating fluctuations at the other, something known to economists as a “bull whip effect.” The relevance today: How likely is it that we could shut down the world for a year, flick the switch back on, and not see a massive surge in short-term price dislocations? Why would that even be a subject for debate? And in the midst of such shortages and turmoil, why would anyone claim to be able to predict the long-term inflation picture with any confidence?","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":338,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":["BOTB.UK"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":135,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}