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小号老虎
08-18

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

段永平最新谈谷歌、存储、茅台、泡泡玛特！

今天的内容，我们继续聚焦段永平。近日，段永平在雪球平台高频和投资者互动，围绕如何坚持、物流壁垒、谷歌企业文化、存储供需格局，对茅台的看法，以及泡泡玛特确定性、期权交易思路等话题，持续展开交流。前提是事前要说好赢家赢得钱捐给的对象能得到对方的认可。感觉泡泡玛特外国的店可以做些熊猫IP。目前泡泡玛特的价位长期看我认为是不贵的，短期不知道，这也是我这么做的内在逻辑。

段永平最新谈谷歌、存储、茅台、泡泡玛特！

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09992\">泡泡玛特</a>确定性、期权交易思路等话题，持续展开交流。</p><p>我们认为，大道言论虽言简意赅，但对生意本质、企业定性与仓位管理的洞察颇为深刻。本期，证星研究院将其近日互动整理如下，分享给大家。</p><p><strong>一、关于坚持：守正不出奇拒绝刻意出奇</strong></p><p>网友1：段总前段时间刷到你的谈话说买股票就是买公司让我受益非浅，我把我这三年的存款全买茅台跟标普科技了，祝我10年以后可以坚持下来。</p><p>大道：一般来说，需要坚持的东西都是很难坚持下来的，你在何苦呢？</p><p>网友2：阿段你好，做对的事情是守正不出奇吗？</p><p>大道：守正不出奇是相对于人们常说的“守正出奇”而言的。守正出的奇是结果，是概率。如果老想着要“出奇”，那很可能出的会是“出奇怪”的动作。(2026.8.7)</p><p><strong>二、关于物流：行业辛苦，认同品牌重要性</strong></p><p>网友：从事跨境物流销售。看了大道的关于物流行业的一些看法，差异化很小，是个比较辛苦的生意。</p><p>对这个行业一开始是好奇，可以熟悉国内外的动态，现在没有喜欢也没有不喜欢(发现喜欢某个职业这种感受也会随着认识的不同而改变)......</p><p>大道：没有品牌的物流很可能连苦生意也做不了啊。(2026.8.8)</p><p><strong>三、关于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">谷歌</a>：感觉企业文化有点问题</strong></p><p>网友1：阿段怎么看？这老巴也没想到吧。</p><p>据说，DeepMind创始人Hassabis也考虑离开谷歌，因谷歌管理层担忧股价暴跌暂缓离职。</p><p>大道：我也没想到，感觉上是Google文化有点问题了，留不住大神。</p><p>网友2：阿段，谷歌算是你二十个孔之一吗？我看老巴、李录、阿段、你们都买了谷歌，也抄作业买了一点点谷歌当个观察仓。</p><p>大道：我在谷歌上一直没有下过重手。(2026.8.9)</p><p><strong>四、再谈存储：继续认为高景气或维持2‑3年</strong></p><p>网友1：马斯克称存储产能每年+20%；但AI带来的需求每年+200%甚至更高。需求增速是供给10倍，经济学规律，价格应当维持高位。段总，你觉得这符合客观事实吗？</p><p>大道：马斯克这么说，那很可能是真的。</p><p>网友2：但是存储这东西既不是垄断也不是违法的产品，能一直就这么保持下去爆炸的需求和80%+毛利，这个感觉听起来也很不可思议。</p><p>大道：存储不可能一直这样，但2-3年这样是非常有可能的。现在需求的需求远大于供应的能力，两三年之内似乎缓解不了。(2026.8.8)</p><p><strong>五、茅台十年之约：以赌局诠释时间的复利</strong></p><p>网友：不知道你有没有可能，参考巴老当年的十年之约，用一个公开的、长达十年的投资赌局，来给A股乃至所有投资者上一堂关于“时间的复利”的课......</p><p>大道：我敢抱着茅台跟任何国内基金赌一个亿人民币，以十年为限。前提是事前要说好赢家赢得钱捐给的对象能得到对方的认可。我会捐给<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002251\">步步高</a>实验学校。</p><p>这里面有太多的细节说不清楚了哈。除非有个很有公信力的机构能跳出来做这件事情。如果双方认同的话，就先把钱捐了，输家10年后付给对方就好。(2026.8.13)</p><p>注：伴随着网络关注度的上升，段有意降温，表示不搞了。我们认为大道强调的生意模式确定性才是价投关注的重点，也是我们长期以来看好茅台的底气所在。</p><p><strong>六、关于泡泡玛特：</strong></p><p><strong>1.谈确定性：从长期看问题会容易理解</strong></p><p>网友：段总，你是怎么样才对某家公司有懂了的感觉？</p><p>比如泡泡玛特，在我的认知里我也觉得这家公司从多个维度(商业模式和企业文化等)看确实很不错，但是没有那种确定性的感觉(没有那种如果<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">可口可乐</a>商家活动便宜几毛钱，我买了就是赚到的感觉)。</p><p>大道：你看不到确定性可能是因为你对确定性的理解是指很短期的，比如一个月，一个季度啥的。如果你能从10年角度看问题会容易很多。(2026.8.10)</p><p><strong>2.谈产品定位：没法满足市场全部需求</strong></p><p>网友：逛了几天四川的景点，发现成都大熊猫繁育基地外国人相对较多，别的景点没见过外国人。感觉泡泡玛特外国的店可以做些熊猫IP。</p><p>大道：难道应该改成“红牛”？泡泡玛特的产品不是功能性产品，非常难预测需求，没人敢100%满足市场需求的，所以很多时候很难避免有点“黄牛”的。</p><p>这个和茅台或者<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>不一样，我觉得茅台和苹果的产品长期有黄牛是不应该的。苹果已经解决了这个问题，茅台似乎也快要解决这个问题了？(2026.8.11)</p><p><strong>3.谈可复制性：宽护城河复刻代价极大</strong></p><p>网友1：我敢说，没有人能够真正地懂泡泡玛特，那些敢说懂泡泡玛特的，要么不懂装懂，要么一知半解。</p><p>今天我就想抛一个问题出来，后面还有好多问题，以后再说。请问泡泡玛特的商业模式、企业文化，有哪一点是不可以复制的，哪一点是不可以模仿的？</p><p>网友2：世界上没有哪个公司的商业模式和企业文化是不能复制的吧？但是市场不会在原地等你，你现在做出和泡泡玛特一样精美的ip，一样的企业文化，甚至你可以直接挖几个高管过来，然后你告诉年轻人说：你们都别去泡泡玛特了，我现在开发了一样的，快来我这里！</p><p>年轻人就会去你店里吗？泡泡玛特早就占据了市场的优势，你必须得把你的利润拿出来打折，请明星，在最好的地段搞各种活动，你才能勉强让自己的曝光量接近泡泡玛特的10-20%，可是你这么折腾完一圈，你的企业和泡泡玛特的商业模式和企业文化还一样吗？</p><p>大道：那你觉得花多少钱可以复制茅台，苹果？要能复制早就有人复制了啊！moat越宽，复制越难，这就是商业模式的意义。你再看看有多少企业想加入潮玩，复制泡泡玛特的？即便强如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>，都找不到北啊。(2026.8.11)</p><p><strong>4.关于购买率：逛购随机性强，但转化并不低</strong></p><p>大道：我感觉人们逛泡泡玛特店和逛苹果店时的目的性似乎差别还蛮大的。去苹果店的人们我猜多数是有明确目的的，而逛泡泡玛特店的人们主要是去逛，看到啥合适的就买点，随机购买的概率要高很多，而且空手离开的概率不高。</p><p>网友：空手离开的概率不低，看到没啥想买的就走了。但是，路过进去逛逛的概率非常非常高。这两相乘，对于商场人流的take rate其实比其他店铺要高太多太多。</p><p>大道：去逛泡泡玛特实体门店的顾客中，空手离开(即只逛不买)的比例大约在60%至70%之间，也就是说，门店的实际进店购买转化率约为30%~40%......(2026.8.11)</p><p><strong>5.关于卖put思路：保守增厚收益，不改变长期立场</strong></p><p>大道：我实际上从来就没有直接卖过一股泡泡玛特，但有一部分股票是买完后就直接卖call了的，这个和直接卖put是完全一样的交易。卖put有上限，所以接近上限的时候我就会采用买股+卖call的方式。</p><p>到期了被call走和put到期expired是完全一样的结果。确实有很多人不懂乱讲，但未来相当长的时间里我可能都会采用类似的策略，大家多看看就明白了。目前option交易差不多有5%/月上下的premium。</p><p>目前泡泡玛特的价位长期看我认为是不贵的，短期不知道，这也是我这么做的内在逻辑。这种做法有可能会让我少赚钱，但也是个比较保守的方法。当然，如果premium掉下来了后我可能会改变策略的。</p><p>我确实没有什么时候什么价位要卖出的打算，也许很长的时间里都不会有。卖put只是一个策略而已，我在其他投资上也是一直如此的。我之前说过，我的苹果可能80-90%都是put进来的。(2026.8.13)</p><p>PS:本文内容仅为观点分享，不做投资建议。</p></body></html>","source":"stockstar","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>段永平最新谈谷歌、存储、茅台、泡泡玛特！</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n段永平最新谈谷歌、存储、茅台、泡泡玛特！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1082532455\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2e305640fc27210243042d09d3a7fa3f);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">证券之星 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-08-14 17:23</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><body><p>今天的内容，我们继续聚焦段永平。</p><p>近日，段永平在雪球平台高频和投资者互动，围绕如何坚持、物流壁垒、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>企业文化、存储供需格局，对茅台的看法，以及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09992\">泡泡玛特</a>确定性、期权交易思路等话题，持续展开交流。</p><p>我们认为，大道言论虽言简意赅，但对生意本质、企业定性与仓位管理的洞察颇为深刻。本期，证星研究院将其近日互动整理如下，分享给大家。</p><p><strong>一、关于坚持：守正不出奇拒绝刻意出奇</strong></p><p>网友1：段总前段时间刷到你的谈话说买股票就是买公司让我受益非浅，我把我这三年的存款全买茅台跟标普科技了，祝我10年以后可以坚持下来。</p><p>大道：一般来说，需要坚持的东西都是很难坚持下来的，你在何苦呢？</p><p>网友2：阿段你好，做对的事情是守正不出奇吗？</p><p>大道：守正不出奇是相对于人们常说的“守正出奇”而言的。守正出的奇是结果，是概率。如果老想着要“出奇”，那很可能出的会是“出奇怪”的动作。(2026.8.7)</p><p><strong>二、关于物流：行业辛苦，认同品牌重要性</strong></p><p>网友：从事跨境物流销售。看了大道的关于物流行业的一些看法，差异化很小，是个比较辛苦的生意。</p><p>对这个行业一开始是好奇，可以熟悉国内外的动态，现在没有喜欢也没有不喜欢(发现喜欢某个职业这种感受也会随着认识的不同而改变)......</p><p>大道：没有品牌的物流很可能连苦生意也做不了啊。(2026.8.8)</p><p><strong>三、关于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">谷歌</a>：感觉企业文化有点问题</strong></p><p>网友1：阿段怎么看？这老巴也没想到吧。</p><p>据说，DeepMind创始人Hassabis也考虑离开谷歌，因谷歌管理层担忧股价暴跌暂缓离职。</p><p>大道：我也没想到，感觉上是Google文化有点问题了，留不住大神。</p><p>网友2：阿段，谷歌算是你二十个孔之一吗？我看老巴、李录、阿段、你们都买了谷歌，也抄作业买了一点点谷歌当个观察仓。</p><p>大道：我在谷歌上一直没有下过重手。(2026.8.9)</p><p><strong>四、再谈存储：继续认为高景气或维持2‑3年</strong></p><p>网友1：马斯克称存储产能每年+20%；但AI带来的需求每年+200%甚至更高。需求增速是供给10倍，经济学规律，价格应当维持高位。段总，你觉得这符合客观事实吗？</p><p>大道：马斯克这么说，那很可能是真的。</p><p>网友2：但是存储这东西既不是垄断也不是违法的产品，能一直就这么保持下去爆炸的需求和80%+毛利，这个感觉听起来也很不可思议。</p><p>大道：存储不可能一直这样，但2-3年这样是非常有可能的。现在需求的需求远大于供应的能力，两三年之内似乎缓解不了。(2026.8.8)</p><p><strong>五、茅台十年之约：以赌局诠释时间的复利</strong></p><p>网友：不知道你有没有可能，参考巴老当年的十年之约，用一个公开的、长达十年的投资赌局，来给A股乃至所有投资者上一堂关于“时间的复利”的课......</p><p>大道：我敢抱着茅台跟任何国内基金赌一个亿人民币，以十年为限。前提是事前要说好赢家赢得钱捐给的对象能得到对方的认可。我会捐给<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002251\">步步高</a>实验学校。</p><p>这里面有太多的细节说不清楚了哈。除非有个很有公信力的机构能跳出来做这件事情。如果双方认同的话，就先把钱捐了，输家10年后付给对方就好。(2026.8.13)</p><p>注：伴随着网络关注度的上升，段有意降温，表示不搞了。我们认为大道强调的生意模式确定性才是价投关注的重点，也是我们长期以来看好茅台的底气所在。</p><p><strong>六、关于泡泡玛特：</strong></p><p><strong>1.谈确定性：从长期看问题会容易理解</strong></p><p>网友：段总，你是怎么样才对某家公司有懂了的感觉？</p><p>比如泡泡玛特，在我的认知里我也觉得这家公司从多个维度(商业模式和企业文化等)看确实很不错，但是没有那种确定性的感觉(没有那种如果<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">可口可乐</a>商家活动便宜几毛钱，我买了就是赚到的感觉)。</p><p>大道：你看不到确定性可能是因为你对确定性的理解是指很短期的，比如一个月，一个季度啥的。如果你能从10年角度看问题会容易很多。(2026.8.10)</p><p><strong>2.谈产品定位：没法满足市场全部需求</strong></p><p>网友：逛了几天四川的景点，发现成都大熊猫繁育基地外国人相对较多，别的景点没见过外国人。感觉泡泡玛特外国的店可以做些熊猫IP。</p><p>大道：难道应该改成“红牛”？泡泡玛特的产品不是功能性产品，非常难预测需求，没人敢100%满足市场需求的，所以很多时候很难避免有点“黄牛”的。</p><p>这个和茅台或者<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>不一样，我觉得茅台和苹果的产品长期有黄牛是不应该的。苹果已经解决了这个问题，茅台似乎也快要解决这个问题了？(2026.8.11)</p><p><strong>3.谈可复制性：宽护城河复刻代价极大</strong></p><p>网友1：我敢说，没有人能够真正地懂泡泡玛特，那些敢说懂泡泡玛特的，要么不懂装懂，要么一知半解。</p><p>今天我就想抛一个问题出来，后面还有好多问题，以后再说。请问泡泡玛特的商业模式、企业文化，有哪一点是不可以复制的，哪一点是不可以模仿的？</p><p>网友2：世界上没有哪个公司的商业模式和企业文化是不能复制的吧？但是市场不会在原地等你，你现在做出和泡泡玛特一样精美的ip，一样的企业文化，甚至你可以直接挖几个高管过来，然后你告诉年轻人说：你们都别去泡泡玛特了，我现在开发了一样的，快来我这里！</p><p>年轻人就会去你店里吗？泡泡玛特早就占据了市场的优势，你必须得把你的利润拿出来打折，请明星，在最好的地段搞各种活动，你才能勉强让自己的曝光量接近泡泡玛特的10-20%，可是你这么折腾完一圈，你的企业和泡泡玛特的商业模式和企业文化还一样吗？</p><p>大道：那你觉得花多少钱可以复制茅台，苹果？要能复制早就有人复制了啊！moat越宽，复制越难，这就是商业模式的意义。你再看看有多少企业想加入潮玩，复制泡泡玛特的？即便强如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>，都找不到北啊。(2026.8.11)</p><p><strong>4.关于购买率：逛购随机性强，但转化并不低</strong></p><p>大道：我感觉人们逛泡泡玛特店和逛苹果店时的目的性似乎差别还蛮大的。去苹果店的人们我猜多数是有明确目的的，而逛泡泡玛特店的人们主要是去逛，看到啥合适的就买点，随机购买的概率要高很多，而且空手离开的概率不高。</p><p>网友：空手离开的概率不低，看到没啥想买的就走了。但是，路过进去逛逛的概率非常非常高。这两相乘，对于商场人流的take rate其实比其他店铺要高太多太多。</p><p>大道：去逛泡泡玛特实体门店的顾客中，空手离开(即只逛不买)的比例大约在60%至70%之间，也就是说，门店的实际进店购买转化率约为30%~40%......(2026.8.11)</p><p><strong>5.关于卖put思路：保守增厚收益，不改变长期立场</strong></p><p>大道：我实际上从来就没有直接卖过一股泡泡玛特，但有一部分股票是买完后就直接卖call了的，这个和直接卖put是完全一样的交易。卖put有上限，所以接近上限的时候我就会采用买股+卖call的方式。</p><p>到期了被call走和put到期expired是完全一样的结果。确实有很多人不懂乱讲，但未来相当长的时间里我可能都会采用类似的策略，大家多看看就明白了。目前option交易差不多有5%/月上下的premium。</p><p>目前泡泡玛特的价位长期看我认为是不贵的，短期不知道，这也是我这么做的内在逻辑。这种做法有可能会让我少赚钱，但也是个比较保守的方法。当然，如果premium掉下来了后我可能会改变策略的。</p><p>我确实没有什么时候什么价位要卖出的打算，也许很长的时间里都不会有。卖put只是一个策略而已，我在其他投资上也是一直如此的。我之前说过，我的苹果可能80-90%都是put进来的。(2026.8.13)</p><p>PS:本文内容仅为观点分享，不做投资建议。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"600519":"贵州茅台","LU1820825898.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - China A Share Equity A Acc SGD-H","LU0143551892.USD":"T ROWE PRICE GLOBAL FOCUSED GROWTH EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1732800096.USD":"摩根大通环球收益基金A (irc)","LU0354030438.USD":"富国美国大盘成长基金Cl A Acc","LU2462591277.SGD":"TRP GLOBAL 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