扩产至少三年，那时候_老虎社区_美港股上老虎 - 老虎社区

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roseking
06-18 18:58

扩产至少三年，那时候黄花菜都凉透了

半导体扩产全面提速，晶圆设备周期迎来重估！

摩根大通报告指出，全球半导体正从“AI芯片牛市”迈向覆盖晶圆厂、存储、先进封装及设备供应商的“扩产牛市”。报告大幅上修晶圆厂设备市场预期，预计2026至2028年市场规模将从1588亿美元增至2373亿美元，连续三年保持双位数增长。核心驱动来自云厂商资本开支激增及存储行业扩产提速。

半导体扩产全面提速，晶圆设备周期迎来重估！

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta</a>，2026年资本开支将同比增长80%，高于此前63%的预测；2027年仍将保持50%增速。按金额计，四家公司资本开支总额2026年将突破5750亿美元，2027年进一步升至8600亿美元，两年新增投资超5000亿美元。</p>\n<p><strong>更重要的是，AI投资结构正在转变。</strong>过去几年资金多流向GPU和AI加速器，而随着AI应用从训练转向推理，内存、网络、CPU、ASIC及先进封装的重要性快速提升。摩根预计，云厂商资本开支中存储占比将从过去的个位数至15%，大幅提升至2026年的约50%。</p>\n<p>这意味着，<strong>未来新增投资将从GPU集群开始向整个半导体产业链扩散。</strong></p>\n<h2>存储扩产提速，DRAM驱动设备市场增长</h2>\n<p><strong>本轮资本开支周期中，存储行业正重新成为扩产的核心方向。</strong></p>\n<p>报告指出，未来三年全球存储产业资本开支总额将达4500亿美元，较此前3000亿美元的水平显著上修。其中，DRAM投资规模预计为3640亿美元，占据绝对主导。</p>\n<p>在需求端，AI服务器对HBM及高性能内存的需求持续攀升；在供给端，EUV设备供给及基础设施建设进度构成产能释放的硬约束。供需错配之下，行业紧平衡格局有望长期延续。</p>\n<p>报告预计，2026年DRAM行业资本开支将同比增长54%，2027年再增37%，<strong>成为推动设备市场增长的最主要的动力之一</strong>。</p>\n</body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>半导体扩产全面提速，晶圆设备周期迎来重估！</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n半导体扩产全面提速，晶圆设备周期迎来重估！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-06-18 18:17</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>人工智能驱动的全球算力竞赛正进入新阶段，而受益范围已不再局限于GPU厂商。</p>\n<p>据追风交易台，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>最新半导体行业报告指出，在云计算巨头持续加码AI基础设施、存储行业进入新一轮景气周期、先进制程供给持续紧张的共同推动下，<strong>全球半导体资本开支迎来全面上修</strong>。</p>\n<p>作为反映产业扩张意愿的前瞻性指标，<strong>晶圆厂设备（WFE）市场增长预期大幅提升</strong>，未来三年有望连续保持双位数增长。具体来看，报告将2026年全球WFE市场增速预测从21%上调至28%，2027年从18%上调至29%，并首次预计2028年仍将实现16%的增长。</p>\n<p>如果说过去两年市场交易的是“AI芯片牛市”，那么摩根大通认为，未来几年市场或将进入覆盖晶圆厂、存储、先进封装和设备供应商的“半导体扩产牛市”。</p>\n<h2>AI需求持续外溢，设备市场预期再度上修</h2>\n<p>摩根大通预计，全球晶圆厂设备市场规模将从2025年的1245亿美元增长至2026年的1588亿美元、2027年的2050亿美元，并在2028年进一步升至2373亿美元。</p>\n<p><strong>推动预测上修的核心因素来自存储和先进制程领域。</strong>报告指出，过去市场曾担忧洁净室不足会成为2026年扩产的主要瓶颈，但随着晶圆厂通过优化现有厂房利用率以及提前布局新产能，这一限制正在逐步缓解。</p>\n<p>与此同时，<strong>全球半导体需求依然保持强劲。</strong>数据显示，2026年4月全球半导体销售额同比增长106%，创下自1994年以来最强增长纪录。其中，DRAM和NAND价格大幅上涨是主要推动力，即便剔除存储芯片因素，行业收入增速仍达到33%。</p>\n<h2>AI资本开支继续狂奔</h2>\n<p><strong>本轮行业预期上修的根本动因，在于科技巨头“近乎失控”的AI投资热潮。</strong></p>\n<p>摩根大通预计，美国四大云服务商Google、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>、Microsoft和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta</a>，2026年资本开支将同比增长80%，高于此前63%的预测；2027年仍将保持50%增速。按金额计，四家公司资本开支总额2026年将突破5750亿美元，2027年进一步升至8600亿美元，两年新增投资超5000亿美元。</p>\n<p><strong>更重要的是，AI投资结构正在转变。</strong>过去几年资金多流向GPU和AI加速器，而随着AI应用从训练转向推理，内存、网络、CPU、ASIC及先进封装的重要性快速提升。摩根预计，云厂商资本开支中存储占比将从过去的个位数至15%，大幅提升至2026年的约50%。</p>\n<p>这意味着，<strong>未来新增投资将从GPU集群开始向整个半导体产业链扩散。</strong></p>\n<h2>存储扩产提速，DRAM驱动设备市场增长</h2>\n<p><strong>本轮资本开支周期中，存储行业正重新成为扩产的核心方向。</strong></p>\n<p>报告指出，未来三年全球存储产业资本开支总额将达4500亿美元，较此前3000亿美元的水平显著上修。其中，DRAM投资规模预计为3640亿美元，占据绝对主导。</p>\n<p>在需求端，AI服务器对HBM及高性能内存的需求持续攀升；在供给端，EUV设备供给及基础设施建设进度构成产能释放的硬约束。供需错配之下，行业紧平衡格局有望长期延续。</p>\n<p>报告预计，2026年DRAM行业资本开支将同比增长54%，2027年再增37%，<strong>成为推动设备市场增长的最主要的动力之一</strong>。</p>\n</body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38b14d4c1528b585f44d427c7a09d860","relate_stocks":{"HIMX":"奇景光电","AVGX":"2倍做多AVGO ETF-Defiance","SMTC":"先科电子","ASMG":"2倍做多ASML ETF- Leverage 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