若沃什在6月决定不加_老虎社区_美港股上老虎 - 老虎社区

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Mediator
05-24 20:35

若沃什在6月决定不加息，即便届时经济增长依然稳健、远未过热，市场也会将其解读为变相宽松。Blitz说：

在通胀风险广泛上升的背景下，未能在6月加息，实际上等同于放松。

沃什上任第一天，市场给个“下马威”：预期今年加息！

沃什正式就任美联储主席，却在上任首日即遭市场压力。理事沃勒发表鹰派讲话，称通胀是政策"驱动力"，加息与降息概率"五五开"，推动2年期美债收益率创2月来新高，期货市场已完全计入今年25基点加息预期。

沃什上任第一天，市场给个“下马威”：预期今年加息！

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

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style=\"text-align: justify;\">期货市场目前已完全计入今年25个基点的加息预期。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c6fa1a8779304d0c71c497174fecc91\" tg-width=\"1004\" tg-height=\"623\"/></p><p>（市场预期美联储年内将加息25基点）</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">TS Lombard经济学家Steven Blitz直言，若沃什在6月首次主持货币政策会议时选择不加息，市场将不会给他任何宽容空间。</p><h2 id=\"waller\">沃勒强硬转向，通胀成政策&#34;驱动力&#34;</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">就在沃什宣誓就职的同一时刻，美联储理事沃勒在法兰克福一场题为&#34;政策风险已经改变&#34;的演讲中发出了迄今为止最为鹰派的信号，其立场转变之显著令市场瞩目。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">沃勒表示：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">通胀没有朝正确方向前进，我支持删除政策声明中的&#39;宽松偏向&#39;措辞，以明确传递降息与加息的可能性已不相上下。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">他进一步指出：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">我已无法排除，若通胀不能尽快回落，未来将需要加息。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">沃勒坦承，近期劳动力市场报告与通胀数据令他改变了此前长期持有的宽松立场。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">他同时表示，油价冲击或许很快会消退，<strong>但强调这不意味着&#34;近期就应考虑加息&#34;，加息需要通胀预期出现&#34;脱锚&#34;的条件。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此前美联储4月会议纪要显示，&#34;许多&#34;官员已倾向于放弃宽松偏向，包括三位在4月声明中就此问题提出异议的地区联储主席，沃勒的最新表态与这一趋势相互印证。</p><h2 id=\"warsh-6\">沃什首秀在即，6月会议压力巨大</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">沃什将于6月中旬首次主持联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议，市场观察人士对沃什即将面对的处境并不乐观。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美联储首选通胀指标已升至三年来最高水平，4月整体物价增速达到6%。市场隐含的一年期通胀预期约为4%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">TS Lombard经济学家Blitz则表示，<strong>若沃什在6月决定不加息，即便届时经济增长依然稳健、远未过热，市场也会将其解读为变相宽松。</strong>Blitz说：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在通胀风险广泛上升的背景下，未能在6月加息，实际上等同于放松。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">毕马威美国首席经济学家Diane Swonk则指出，中东局势是在此前已然存在的价格压力之上再度加码。她说：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这是美联储无法对战争及其通胀影响，采取忽略处理的诸多原因之一。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">当前市场对美联储加息25个基点的预期，与年初市场普遍押注多次降息的情形形成鲜明反差。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09697b160caac290ffea5a2f66c54818\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"531\"/></p><p>（今年2月前后，市场对美联储利率走势预期变化对比）</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">尽管受本周能源价格走低影响，10年期美债收益率未出现大幅上行。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但高盛的George Cole指出，长端美债虽相对公允价值略显便宜，但估值尚未偏离到足以支撑更深幅反弹的程度。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10403aa4874297999743be0cb10af7ce\" tg-width=\"440\" tg-height=\"439\"/></p><p>（长端美债相对公允价值略显便宜）</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>George Cole强调，在宏观风险格局未发生实质转变之前，长端收益率仍面临供给压力及债务融资周期的结构性上行风险。</strong></p><h2 id=\"6ee5ce24\">独立性考验，历史性就职时刻背后的隐忧</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">沃什是自格林斯潘以来首位在白宫宣誓就职的美联储主席，这一细节本身已被市场视为信号。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">特朗普寄望于这位他在今年1月提名的前美联储理事对降息要求更为顺从，此前沃什在提名竞争中击败了白宫经济学家哈塞特、沃勒以及贝莱德高管Rick Rieder。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美联储的独立性压力在近期尤为突出。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">华尔街见闻提及，特朗普盟友、哥伦比亚特区联邦检察官Jeanine Pirro，曾就美联储25亿美元总部翻新工程对鲍威尔展开刑事调查，该调查已撤销，但鲍威尔表示这是向官员施压以促其降息的借口。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">沃什此次就任四年任期，成为美联储第17任主席委员会主席。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">然而，市场已然明示：无论政治环境如何，通胀才是当下最紧迫的议题，而这位新主席几乎没有时间从容布局。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>沃什上任第一天，市场给个“下马威”：预期今年加息！</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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class=\"title\">\n沃什上任第一天，市场给个“下马威”：预期今年加息！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-05-23 10:30</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>沃什正式就任美联储主席，却在上任首日即遭市场压力。理事沃勒发表鹰派讲话，称通胀是政策&#34;驱动力&#34;，加息与降息概率&#34;五五开&#34;，推动2年期美债收益率创2月来新高，期货市场已完全计入今年25基点加息预期。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">沃什正式执掌美联储，却在上任首日便遭市场当头一棒。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">5月22日周五，特朗普在白宫主持宣誓仪式，正式将美联储权杖交予沃什。沃什接手美联储之际，伊朗战争引发的能源与运输成本飙升，正持续向通胀传导。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">华尔街见闻提及，同日美联储理事沃勒发表鹰派讲话，明确表示通胀是未来政策决策的&#34;驱动力&#34;，称未来加息与降息“五五开”，这一表态直接推动加息预期急剧升温。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">当日美债市场遭抛售，对利率敏感的2年期美债收益率上行4个基点，创今年2月以来新高。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fff7c2da00400936d4c51e5ec5c585a\" tg-width=\"1005\" tg-height=\"619\"/></p><p>（美债主要期限收益率本周走势）</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">期货市场目前已完全计入今年25个基点的加息预期。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c6fa1a8779304d0c71c497174fecc91\" tg-width=\"1004\" tg-height=\"623\"/></p><p>（市场预期美联储年内将加息25基点）</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">TS Lombard经济学家Steven Blitz直言，若沃什在6月首次主持货币政策会议时选择不加息，市场将不会给他任何宽容空间。</p><h2 id=\"waller\">沃勒强硬转向，通胀成政策&#34;驱动力&#34;</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">就在沃什宣誓就职的同一时刻，美联储理事沃勒在法兰克福一场题为&#34;政策风险已经改变&#34;的演讲中发出了迄今为止最为鹰派的信号，其立场转变之显著令市场瞩目。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">沃勒表示：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">通胀没有朝正确方向前进，我支持删除政策声明中的&#39;宽松偏向&#39;措辞，以明确传递降息与加息的可能性已不相上下。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">他进一步指出：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">我已无法排除，若通胀不能尽快回落，未来将需要加息。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">沃勒坦承，近期劳动力市场报告与通胀数据令他改变了此前长期持有的宽松立场。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">他同时表示，油价冲击或许很快会消退，<strong>但强调这不意味着&#34;近期就应考虑加息&#34;，加息需要通胀预期出现&#34;脱锚&#34;的条件。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此前美联储4月会议纪要显示，&#34;许多&#34;官员已倾向于放弃宽松偏向，包括三位在4月声明中就此问题提出异议的地区联储主席，沃勒的最新表态与这一趋势相互印证。</p><h2 id=\"warsh-6\">沃什首秀在即，6月会议压力巨大</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">沃什将于6月中旬首次主持联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议，市场观察人士对沃什即将面对的处境并不乐观。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美联储首选通胀指标已升至三年来最高水平，4月整体物价增速达到6%。市场隐含的一年期通胀预期约为4%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">TS Lombard经济学家Blitz则表示，<strong>若沃什在6月决定不加息，即便届时经济增长依然稳健、远未过热，市场也会将其解读为变相宽松。</strong>Blitz说：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在通胀风险广泛上升的背景下，未能在6月加息，实际上等同于放松。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">毕马威美国首席经济学家Diane Swonk则指出，中东局势是在此前已然存在的价格压力之上再度加码。她说：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这是美联储无法对战争及其通胀影响，采取忽略处理的诸多原因之一。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">当前市场对美联储加息25个基点的预期，与年初市场普遍押注多次降息的情形形成鲜明反差。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09697b160caac290ffea5a2f66c54818\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"531\"/></p><p>（今年2月前后，市场对美联储利率走势预期变化对比）</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">尽管受本周能源价格走低影响，10年期美债收益率未出现大幅上行。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但高盛的George Cole指出，长端美债虽相对公允价值略显便宜，但估值尚未偏离到足以支撑更深幅反弹的程度。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10403aa4874297999743be0cb10af7ce\" tg-width=\"440\" tg-height=\"439\"/></p><p>（长端美债相对公允价值略显便宜）</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>George Cole强调，在宏观风险格局未发生实质转变之前，长端收益率仍面临供给压力及债务融资周期的结构性上行风险。</strong></p><h2 id=\"6ee5ce24\">独立性考验，历史性就职时刻背后的隐忧</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">沃什是自格林斯潘以来首位在白宫宣誓就职的美联储主席，这一细节本身已被市场视为信号。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">特朗普寄望于这位他在今年1月提名的前美联储理事对降息要求更为顺从，此前沃什在提名竞争中击败了白宫经济学家哈塞特、沃勒以及贝莱德高管Rick Rieder。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美联储的独立性压力在近期尤为突出。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">华尔街见闻提及，特朗普盟友、哥伦比亚特区联邦检察官Jeanine Pirro，曾就美联储25亿美元总部翻新工程对鲍威尔展开刑事调查，该调查已撤销，但鲍威尔表示这是向官员施压以促其降息的借口。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">沃什此次就任四年任期，成为美联储第17任主席委员会主席。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">然而，市场已然明示：无论政治环境如何，通胀才是当下最紧迫的议题，而这位新主席几乎没有时间从容布局。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f09c44f289c2f0d40610768fe6661fab","relate_stocks":{"SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","NOCT":"Innovator Growth-100 Power Buffer ETF - October","LU0772969993.USD":"FIDELITY GLOBAL DIVIDEND \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1481011671.HKD":"FIDELITY GLOBAL DIVIDEND \"A\" (HKDHDG) INC","SMAX":"ISHARES LARGE CAP MAX BUFFER SEP ETF","LU2430703095.HKD":"WELLINGTON MULTI-ASSET HIGH INCOME \"AM4\" (HKD) INC","LU1291159041.SGD":"CPR Invest - Global Silver Age A2 Acc SGD-H","LU1481011911.USD":"FIDELITY GLOBAL DIVIDEND \"A\" (USDHDG) INC","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) 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ACC","IE00BFXG1179.USD":"BNY MELLON U.S. EQUITY INCOME \"B\" (USD) INC","YSPY":"GraniteShares YieldBOOST SPY ETF","IE00BVYPNV92.GBP":"GUINNESS GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"C\" (GBP) ACC","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","GSX":"Tradr 2X Long GS Daily ETF","LU1868837136.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"8\" (USD) ACC","LU1670627923.USD":"M&G (LUX) NORTH AMERICAN DIVIDEND \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1868836591.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"1U\"(USD) ACC","SPYU":"MAX S&P 500 4X Leveraged ETN","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","LU0106831901.USD":"贝莱德世界金融基金A2","LU2264538146.SGD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Global Absolute Alpha A Acc SGD","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3772962","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2637522323","content_text":"沃什正式就任美联储主席，却在上任首日即遭市场压力。理事沃勒发表鹰派讲话，称通胀是政策\"驱动力\"，加息与降息概率\"五五开\"，推动2年期美债收益率创2月来新高，期货市场已完全计入今年25基点加息预期。沃什正式执掌美联储，却在上任首日便遭市场当头一棒。5月22日周五，特朗普在白宫主持宣誓仪式，正式将美联储权杖交予沃什。沃什接手美联储之际，伊朗战争引发的能源与运输成本飙升，正持续向通胀传导。华尔街见闻提及，同日美联储理事沃勒发表鹰派讲话，明确表示通胀是未来政策决策的\"驱动力\"，称未来加息与降息“五五开”，这一表态直接推动加息预期急剧升温。当日美债市场遭抛售，对利率敏感的2年期美债收益率上行4个基点，创今年2月以来新高。（美债主要期限收益率本周走势）期货市场目前已完全计入今年25个基点的加息预期。（市场预期美联储年内将加息25基点）TS Lombard经济学家Steven Blitz直言，若沃什在6月首次主持货币政策会议时选择不加息，市场将不会给他任何宽容空间。沃勒强硬转向，通胀成政策\"驱动力\"就在沃什宣誓就职的同一时刻，美联储理事沃勒在法兰克福一场题为\"政策风险已经改变\"的演讲中发出了迄今为止最为鹰派的信号，其立场转变之显著令市场瞩目。沃勒表示：通胀没有朝正确方向前进，我支持删除政策声明中的'宽松偏向'措辞，以明确传递降息与加息的可能性已不相上下。他进一步指出：我已无法排除，若通胀不能尽快回落，未来将需要加息。沃勒坦承，近期劳动力市场报告与通胀数据令他改变了此前长期持有的宽松立场。他同时表示，油价冲击或许很快会消退，但强调这不意味着\"近期就应考虑加息\"，加息需要通胀预期出现\"脱锚\"的条件。此前美联储4月会议纪要显示，\"许多\"官员已倾向于放弃宽松偏向，包括三位在4月声明中就此问题提出异议的地区联储主席，沃勒的最新表态与这一趋势相互印证。沃什首秀在即，6月会议压力巨大沃什将于6月中旬首次主持联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议，市场观察人士对沃什即将面对的处境并不乐观。美联储首选通胀指标已升至三年来最高水平，4月整体物价增速达到6%。市场隐含的一年期通胀预期约为4%。TS Lombard经济学家Blitz则表示，若沃什在6月决定不加息，即便届时经济增长依然稳健、远未过热，市场也会将其解读为变相宽松。Blitz说：在通胀风险广泛上升的背景下，未能在6月加息，实际上等同于放松。毕马威美国首席经济学家Diane Swonk则指出，中东局势是在此前已然存在的价格压力之上再度加码。她说：这是美联储无法对战争及其通胀影响，采取忽略处理的诸多原因之一。当前市场对美联储加息25个基点的预期，与年初市场普遍押注多次降息的情形形成鲜明反差。（今年2月前后，市场对美联储利率走势预期变化对比）尽管受本周能源价格走低影响，10年期美债收益率未出现大幅上行。但高盛的George Cole指出，长端美债虽相对公允价值略显便宜，但估值尚未偏离到足以支撑更深幅反弹的程度。（长端美债相对公允价值略显便宜）George Cole强调，在宏观风险格局未发生实质转变之前，长端收益率仍面临供给压力及债务融资周期的结构性上行风险。独立性考验，历史性就职时刻背后的隐忧沃什是自格林斯潘以来首位在白宫宣誓就职的美联储主席，这一细节本身已被市场视为信号。特朗普寄望于这位他在今年1月提名的前美联储理事对降息要求更为顺从，此前沃什在提名竞争中击败了白宫经济学家哈塞特、沃勒以及贝莱德高管Rick Rieder。美联储的独立性压力在近期尤为突出。华尔街见闻提及，特朗普盟友、哥伦比亚特区联邦检察官Jeanine Pirro，曾就美联储25亿美元总部翻新工程对鲍威尔展开刑事调查，该调查已撤销，但鲍威尔表示这是向官员施压以促其降息的借口。沃什此次就任四年任期，成为美联储第17任主席委员会主席。然而，市场已然明示：无论政治环境如何，通胀才是当下最紧迫的议题，而这位新主席几乎没有时间从容布局。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NJAN":0.6,"SPYM":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"NAPR":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"QMAR":0.6,"SPYQ":0.6,"NDX":2,"SSO":0.6,"SMAX":0.6,"QID":0.6,"DIA":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SH":0.6,"DMAX":0.6,"NJUL":0.6,"GPIQ":0.6,"SPXL":0.6,".DJI":2,"SDOW":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"YSPY":0.6,"TMV":1.7,"09834":0.6,"09086":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"03034":0.6,"SPY":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"NOCT":0.6,"07261":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"QDEC":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"SPYU":0.6,"07568":0.6,"07522":0.6,"07266":0.6,".IXIC":2,"SQQQ":0.6,"02834":0.6,".SPX":2,"IVV":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"TQQY":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"MMAX":0.6,"GSX":0.6,"HIBL":0.6,"SPXS":0.6,"SPYH":0.6,"SPDN":0.6,"QQQM":0.6,"VOO":0.6,"QQQX":0.6,"SPUU":0.6,"03455":0.6,"03086":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":16,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":149,"optionInvolvedFlag":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}