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嘻嘻瓜
05-14 18:53
这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看
人类最伟大的投资方向
新的时代在定价
人类最伟大的投资方向
免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。
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19:35","market":"sg","language":"zh","title":"人类最伟大的投资方向","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2633362180","media":"格隆汇","summary":"新的时代在定价","content":"<html><body><p>这两年，由AI大模型引爆的资本狂潮，正以人类从未见过的烈度，席卷全球。</p><p><span><b><span><span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a></span></span></b><span><span>，</span><span>自</span></span><span><span>2022</span></span><span><span>年到</span></span><span><span>2025</span></span><span><span>年底，股价增长超</span></span><span><span>15</span></span><span><span>倍，市值一度超</span></span><span><span>5</span></span><span><span>万亿美元；</span></span></span></p><p><span><b><span><span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a></span></span></b><span><span>，</span></span><span><span>2023</span></span><span><span>年至今股价增长</span></span><span><span>3.5</span></span><span><span>倍，当前市值</span></span><span><span>4.7</span></span><span><span>万亿美元；</span></span></span></p><p><span><b><span><span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a></span></span></b><span><span>，</span><span>自</span></span><span><span>2022</span></span><span><span>年低点上涨近</span></span><span><span>6</span></span><span><span>倍，当前市值超</span></span><span><span>2</span></span><span><span>万亿美元；</span></span></span></p><p><span><b><span><span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">博通</a></span></span></b><span><span>，</span><span>同期上涨超</span></span><span><span>9</span></span><span><span>倍，市值同样超</span></span><span><span>2</span></span><span><span>万亿美元；</span></span></span></p><p><span><b><span><span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光科技</a></span></span></b><span><span>，</span><span>最近一年飙涨</span></span><span><span>7.5</span></span><span><span>倍，当前市值超</span></span><span><span>7200</span></span><span><span>亿美元；</span></span></span></p><p><span><b><span><span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a></span></span></b><span><span>，</span><span>一年内飙涨</span></span><span><span>4.5</span></span><span><span>倍，当前市值超</span></span><span><span>5400</span></span><span><span>亿美元；</span></span></span></p><p><span><b><span><span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDK\">闪迪</a></span></span></b><span><span>，</span></span><span><span>2025</span></span><span><span>年</span></span><span><span>2</span></span><span><span>月上市来，仅</span></span><span><span>1</span></span><span><span>年多飙升超</span></span><span><span>40</span></span><span><span>倍；</span></span></span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/276cc-5a25fe3e-e018-4acf-b1d7-05f8826dc0f4.jpg?guru_height=956&guru_width=683&guru_size=133133\"/></p><p><span><span><span>还有很多热门</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>产业链公司，短短一年股价涨幅数倍、十几倍的比比皆是。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>很多人还没意识到这些数字到底有多么夸张。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>这么说吧，截至</span></span><span><span>5</span></span><span><span>月</span></span><span><span>6</span></span><span><span>日，单是美股</span></span><span><span>15</span></span><span><span>家</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>产业链相关的头部巨头（英伟达、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">谷歌</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>、台积电、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600455\">博通</a>、</span></span><span><span>meta</span></span><span><span>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>、美光科技、</span></span><span><span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a></span></span><span><span>、英特尔、</span></span><span><span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASML\">ASML</a></span></span><span><span>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">甲骨文</a>、</span></span><span><span>Palantir)</span></span><span><span>，</span></span><b><span><span>它们的总市值加起来，超过了</span></span><span><span>30</span></span><span><span>万亿美元。</span></span></b></span></p><p><span><span><span>当前美股最新总市值大约</span></span><span><span>92.5</span></span><span><span>万亿美元，这</span></span><span><span>15</span></span><span><span>家就占了</span></span><b><span><span>三分之一</span></span></b><span><span>；</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>当前</span></span><span><span>A</span></span><span><span>股总市值</span></span><span><span>118.27</span></span><span><span>万亿元，折合</span></span><span><span>17.25</span></span><span><span>万亿美元，这</span></span><span><span>15</span></span><span><span>家的总市值是其</span></span><b><span><span>1.75</span></span><span><span>倍</span></span></b><span><span>！</span></span></span></p><p><span><b><span><span>2025</span></span><span><span>年</span></span></b><b><span><span>，</span></span></b><b><span><span>美国名义</span></span><span><span>GDP30.8</span></span><span><span>万亿美元，差不多刚好</span></span></b><b><span><span>是</span></span></b><b><span><span>这</span></span><span><span>15</span></span><span><span>家的总市值！</span></span></b></span></p><p><span><span><span>这个风暴还不止发生在美股，</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>韩国</span></span><b><span><span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SSNLF\">三星电子</a></span></span></b><span><span>，</span><span>年初至今股价涨幅超</span></span><span><span>3.7</span></span><span><span>倍，市值突破</span></span><span><span>1.04</span></span><span><span>万亿美元；</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>韩国</span></span><b><span><span>SK</span></span><span><span>海力士</span></span></b><span><span>，</span><span>同期涨幅超</span></span><span><span>3.6</span></span><span><span>倍，市值涨至</span></span><span><span>7</span></span><span><span>千亿美元；</span></span></span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/d1a62-e9d18f98-96eb-468d-821e-4df100551200.jpg?guru_height=1502&guru_width=1072&guru_size=218743\"/></p><p><span><span><span>A</span></span><span><span>股这边，</span></span><b><span><span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601138\">工业富联</a></span></span></b><span><span>股价</span></span><span><span>1</span></span><span><span>年</span></span><span><span>3</span></span><span><span>倍，市值一度超过</span></span><span><span>1.6</span></span><span><span>万亿元，成为首个受益于</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>产业的万亿市值巨头；</span></span></span></p><p><span><b><span><span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300308\">中际旭创</a></span></span></b><span><span>，</span><span>一年涨超</span></span><span><span>10</span></span><span><span>倍，市值最高时同样突破万亿</span></span><span><span>元</span></span><span><span>；</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>还有大量的芯片、光通信、</span></span><span><span>PCB</span></span><span><span>龙头，市值</span></span><span><span>同样短时间内</span></span><span><span>飙升几倍，跻身</span></span><span><span>为</span></span><span><span>千亿市值</span></span><span><span>巨头</span></span><span><span>。</span></span></span></p><p><span><b><span><span>可以说，这绝对是人类</span></span></b><b><span><span>有史以来</span></span></b><b><span><span>最</span></span></b><b><span><span>极致</span></span></b><b><span><span>的一次全球性资产暴涨潮。</span></span></b></span></p><p><span><span><span>面对如此史诗级的资产狂潮</span></span><span><span>，有人翻出</span></span><span><span>2000</span></span><span><span>年互联网泡沫的旧报纸，试图证明这一切终将灰飞烟灭。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>但他们忘了一件事。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>人类历史上，没有一次真正的文明级变革，会因为</span></span><span><span>“看起来太贵”而停下脚步。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>这一次同样如此</span></span><span><span>。</span></span></span></p><h3><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">01</font></span></strong></h3><p><span><span><span>纵观人类文明史，本质上就是科技不断突破生理、环境、认知局限的进化史。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>其中有一个规律从未被打破：</span></span><b><span><span>谁抓住了时代的核心科技，谁就抓住了财富的密码。</span></span></b></span></p><p><span><span><span>农耕时代，铁器、水利是核心科技，掌握先进农耕技术的人，成为当时时代的最大受益者；</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>工业时代，蒸汽机、电力是核心科技，催生了钢铁、能源、制造业巨头，成就了一批跨越百年的企业；</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>信息时代，互联网是核心科技，苹果、谷歌、微软、</span></span><span><span>meta</span></span><span><span>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里</a>等科技巨头，创造了前所未有的市值神话；</span></span></span></p><p><span><b><span><span>而</span></span></b><b><span><span>今天，智能时代的核心科技，就是算力。</span></span></b></span></p><p><span><span><span>这一次，算力的载体是超大规模</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>集群。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>几万张、几十万张</span></span><span><span>GPU</span></span><span><span>连在一起，像一座数字时代的巨型电站。单是训练一个前沿大模型消耗的电力，就够一个普通家庭用上几百年。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>而这样的集群，全世界正在以每周数个的速度拔地而起。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>谁控制了最大的算力集群，谁就定义了智能的上限。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>OpenAI</span></span><span><span>、</span></span><span><span>Google</span></span><span><span>、</span></span><span><span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta</a></span></span><span><span>、</span></span><span><span>xAI</span></span><span><span>……它们之间的竞争，表面上是模型参数的竞赛，实质上是算力储备的军备竞赛。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>马斯克说要建</span></span><span><span>10</span></span><span><span>万张</span></span><span><span>H100</span></span><span><span>的集群，黄仁勋说未来的数据中心会是“</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>工厂”——</span></span><b><span><span>这些巨头们，丝毫不掩饰对算力的极致渴望。</span></span></b></span></p><p><span><span><span>他们在疯买算力，不是因为疯狂，而是因为足够清醒。</span></span></span></p><p><span><b><span><span>算力的最大价值，就在于它的需求是</span></span><span><span>“永续性、无上限”的</span></span></b><b><span><span>。</span></span></b></span></p><p><span><span><span>未来人类社会</span></span><span><span>，</span></span><span><span>必</span></span><span><span>将全面迈向智能化，算力的渗透将无孔不入，如同水和空气一样，成为人类生存、发展的必需品，</span></span><span><span>且</span></span><span><span>需求永不枯竭、持续扩容。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>比如在</span></span><span><span>产业层面，工业无人化、智能制造、数字孪生、工业仿真</span></span><span><span>……这些<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BJZ.SI\">高大</a>上的词背后，全都需要海量算力支撑，才能实现决策智能化、生产自动化、降低成本、提升效率；</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>生活层面，自动驾驶、人形机器人、智能家居、</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>助手、元宇宙等场景的普及，更需要实时算力保障体验，让科技真正融入日常生活，改变人类的生活方式；</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>尤其是</span></span><span><span>前沿探索层面，生命科学（药物研发、基因测序、抗衰老研究）、空间探索（星际模拟、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000901\">航天</a>计算、太空移民）、量子科技、可控核聚变等领域的突破，更需要顶级算力作为支撑，去帮助人类突破认知边界。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>更重要的是，算力的需求不会因经济周期、政策调整而减少，反而会随着智能化时代的推进持续不断提升需求总量</span></span><span><span>。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>这种</span></span><span><span>“无上限、不可逆”的刚需，</span></span><b><span><span>是任何传统行业都无法比拟的优势。</span></span></b></span></p><h3><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">02</font></span></strong></h3><p><span><span><span>智能时代有三大</span></span><span><span>最基础的</span></span><span><span>要素</span></span><span><span>——</span></span><span><span>算力、电力、数据。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>但</span></span><span><span>凭什么算力最核心？</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>打个比方。</span></span></span></p><p><span><b><span><span>数据，是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00166\">新时代</a>的</span></span><span><span>“原油”。</span></span></b><span><span>它埋藏在每个点击、每段对话、每张图片里。</span></span><span><span>2025</span></span><span><span>年，全球每年产生的数据量已经超过</span></span><span><span>175ZB</span></span><span><span>——堆在一起，需要几十亿块</span></span><span><span>12TB</span></span><span><span>的硬盘才能装下。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>但没有算力炼化，这些原油不过是地底下没人开采的淤泥。</span></span></span></p><p><span><b><span><span>电力，是新时代的</span></span><span><span>“血液”。</span></span></b><span><span>它驱动一切运转，但血液本身不会思考，不会决策。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>集群的耗电量确实在以惊人的速度膨胀，以至于有些数据中心不得不建在核电站旁边。电网公司</span></span><span><span>甚至</span></span><span><span>开始要求算力客户提前三年下用电申请</span></span><span><span>——这在历史上从未发生过。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>但如果没有算力，一切归零。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>没有算力，数据只是一堆沉默的比特，电力也只能点亮灯泡，点不亮智能。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>这才是</span></span><span><span>“基石”的真正含义——它是地基之下那块<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688169\">石头</a>，抽掉它，整座大厦瞬间崩塌。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>想象一下电力的历史。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>一旦人类用上了电，就再也回不去没有电的夜晚。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>电灯、电话、电视、电脑</span></span><span><span>……每一项发明都在加深人类对电的依赖，直到它成为像空气一样的存在。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>算力正在经历同样的过程。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>今天，你已经完全离不开手机、电脑电子设备，你打开的每一个应用、敲下的每一个字背后，都要消耗大量的算力。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>你甚至不知道，当你用手机拍照的一瞬间，背后有十几个</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>模型同时运行——人脸检测、场景识别、</span></span><span><span>HDR</span></span><span><span>融合、降噪……每一个都需要算力。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>2030</span></span><span><span>年，你会觉得“没有算力的一天”，就像今天觉得“没有电的一天”一样荒谬。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>一旦算力侵入一个领域，它就永不退潮。</span></span></span></p><h3><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">03</font></span></strong></h3><p><span><span><span>这还不是全部。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>算力最迷人的地方在于</span></span><span><span>——人类对算力的贪婪，没有上限。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>你可以少买一辆车、少买一部手机、少喝一杯咖啡。经济学家管这叫</span></span><span><span>“需求弹性”——价格高了，人们自然买得少。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>但你不会让</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>“少思考一点”。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>而如果</span></span><span><span>你想让</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>变聪明一点点，需要的算力要翻很多倍。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>德勤的报告预测，到</span></span><span><span>2026</span></span><span><span>年，推理将占据三分之二的</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>计算量；到</span></span><span><span>2030</span></span><span><span>年，这个比例可能达到</span></span><span><span>75%</span></span><span><span>。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>这意味着，</span></span><b><span><span>算力需求不是一条向上的斜线，而是一条加速陡峭的曲线。</span></span></b></span></p><p><span><span><span>因为全球如果有一亿人每天问</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>十个问题，那一天的推理算力消耗，就相当于重新训练一遍</span></span><span><span>GPT-4</span></span><span><span>。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>另一边，算力的供给端却像跑在泥沼里。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>现在，芯片制程已经逼近物理极限。</span></span><span><span>3</span></span><span><span>纳米、</span></span><span><span>2</span></span><span><span>纳米、</span></span><span><span>1</span></span><span><span>纳米……每一步难如登天。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>台积电的</span></span><span><span>2</span></span><span><span>纳米工厂投资超过</span></span><span><span>300</span></span><span><span>亿美元，从动工到量产需要四五年。就算技术突破，产能爬坡也不是一朝一夕。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>全球只有一家公司能生产最顶尖的极紫外光刻机</span></span><span><span>——荷兰的</span></span><span><span>ASML</span></span><span><span>。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>一台机器</span></span><span><span>3.5</span></span><span><span>亿美元，年产只有几十台。每台机器重达</span></span><span><span>180</span></span><span><span>吨，需要三架<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">波音</a></span></span><span><span>747</span></span><span><span>才能运完。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>你想增加产能？对不起，蔡司的光学镜片磨不出来，通快的激光器造不出来。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>还有能源。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>一个大型</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>集群的耗电量，堪比一座中型城市。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>在</span></span><span><span>美国，很多新建</span></span><span><span>的</span></span><span><span>“数据中心巷”</span></span><span><span>因为</span></span><span><span>当地电网不堪重负</span></span><span><span>而被迫暂停，</span></span><span><span>新项目并网等待时间长达数年。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>算力公司开始自己建电站、买核反应堆，这在一年前还是笑话</span></span><span><span>，</span></span><span><span>如今却是普遍都在做的事。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>也就是说，算力需求以指数级狂奔，但供给却被缚住手脚。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>这个</span></span><span><span>“超级缺口”，将是未来十年的结构性主题。</span></span></span></p><h3><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">04</font></span></strong></h3><p><span><span><span>站在今天，看向未来十年，算力产业链的路径极其清晰：</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>英伟达、博通、</span></span><span><span>AMD</span></span><span><span>，还有那些躲在幕后但不可或缺的</span></span><span><span>HBM</span></span><span><span>厂商（</span></span><span><span>SK</span></span><span><span>海力士、美光）、先进封装厂（台积电的</span></span><span><span>CoWoS</span></span><span><span>、日月光）、半导体设备商（</span></span><span><span>ASML</span></span><span><span>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMAT\">应用材料</a>、</span></span><span><span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KLAC\">KLA</a></span></span><span><span>）。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>无论</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>模型未来谁赢、谁输，这些“卖铲人”都会赢。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>掘金热里，最稳赚不赔的是卖铲子的人。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>这个道理，几百年来从未失效。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>1849</span></span><span><span>年加州淘金热，真正发财的不是大多数淘金客，而是卖铲子、卖牛仔裤的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LEVI\">李维斯</a>。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>今天，这些</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>“卖铲人”卖出的是人类历史上最贵、最稀缺、也最不可或缺的“铲子”。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>还有光模块、高速互联、交换机</span></span><span><span>……算力集群每扩大一倍，互联带宽的需求就翻几倍。从</span></span><span><span>800G</span></span><span><span>到</span></span><span><span>1.6T</span></span><span><span>到</span></span><span><span>3.2T</span></span><span><span>，光模块的升级速度远远超过了传统的“四年一代”。</span></span></span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/cb2e6-ffb44163-f2cc-4e01-a2b6-6cbcaa7f9135.jpg?guru_height=748&guru_width=1080&guru_size=125142\"/></p><p><span><span><span>美股、</span></span><span><span>A</span></span><span><span>股里的光通信标的为什么能一年涨几倍、十几倍？因为它们是算力时代的“神经网络”。没有它们，再强的算力芯片也只能单打独斗，组不成军团。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>甚至还有量子计算、光子计算、存内计算、边缘</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>算力……这些听起来还很遥远的技术，都有可能在未来十年诞生出新的算力王者。</span></span></span></p><h3><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">05</font></span></strong></h3><h3><span><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">写在最后</font></span></strong></span></h3><p><span><span><span>投资的本质，是认知的变现；而认知的高度，决定了收益的上限。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>我们要跳出股市的短期博弈，多从人类文明进化、国家科技发展、行业技术迭代的角度，思考算力的价值，提升自身的格局视野。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>算力作为智能时代核心基石的本质，</span></span><span><span>有着</span></span><span><span>“刚需不可逆、地位不可替、壁垒不可破、增长无上限”的底层逻辑，</span></span><span><span>无疑让它能成为当下最伟大的投资方向之一</span></span><span><span>。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>投资算力，甚至不需要你相信任何一家公司、任何一个</span></span><span><span>CEO</span></span><span><span>、任何一条技术路线。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>你只需要相信一件事：</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>人类对智能的渴望，是刻在基因里的本能。而算力，是一切智能的物理化身。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>或许</span></span><span><span>二十年后，人们回望</span></span><span><span>2025</span></span><span><span>—</span></span><span><span>2030</span></span><span><span>年，会说：</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>那是铁路时代的</span></span><span><span>1860</span></span><span><span>年代，那是电力时代的</span></span><span><span>1900</span></span><span><span>年代，那是互联网时代的</span></span><span><span>1995</span></span><span><span>年。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>只是这一次，浪潮比任何一次都更确定、更汹涌、更不可阻挡。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>面对如此令人激动的新时代和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600628\">新世界</a>，</span></span></span></p><p><span><span>你是拥抱？还是漠视？</span></span></p></body></html>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>人类最伟大的投资方向</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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}\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n人类最伟大的投资方向\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-05-06 19:35 北京时间 <a href=https://www.gelonghui.com/p/4641590><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>这两年，由AI大模型引爆的资本狂潮，正以人类从未见过的烈度，席卷全球。英伟达，自2022年到2025年底，股价增长超15倍，市值一度超5万亿美元；谷歌，2023年至今股价增长3.5倍，当前市值4.7万亿美元；台积电，自2022年低点上涨近6倍，当前市值超2万亿美元；博通，同期上涨超9倍，市值同样超2万亿美元；美光科技，最近一年飙涨7.5倍，当前市值超7200亿美元；英特尔，一年内飙涨4.5倍，当前...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/4641590\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://img3.gelonghui.com/168f5-51c69691-7244-4853-b93a-b23b9aba6d11.jpg?guru_height=643&guru_width=1146&guru_size=156394","relate_stocks":{"LU1255011170.USD":"JPM CHINA A-SHARE OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1244550221.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET INCOME \"A\" (USDHEDGED) INC (M)","LU1781817850.SGD":"Blackrock Systematic China A-Share Opportunities A2 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ACC"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/4641590","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2633362180","content_text":"这两年，由AI大模型引爆的资本狂潮，正以人类从未见过的烈度，席卷全球。英伟达，自2022年到2025年底，股价增长超15倍，市值一度超5万亿美元；谷歌，2023年至今股价增长3.5倍，当前市值4.7万亿美元；台积电，自2022年低点上涨近6倍，当前市值超2万亿美元；博通，同期上涨超9倍，市值同样超2万亿美元；美光科技，最近一年飙涨7.5倍，当前市值超7200亿美元；英特尔，一年内飙涨4.5倍，当前市值超5400亿美元；闪迪，2025年2月上市来，仅1年多飙升超40倍；还有很多热门AI产业链公司，短短一年股价涨幅数倍、十几倍的比比皆是。很多人还没意识到这些数字到底有多么夸张。这么说吧，截至5月6日，单是美股15家AI产业链相关的头部巨头（英伟达、苹果、谷歌、微软、亚马逊、台积电、博通、meta、特斯拉、美光科技、AMD、英特尔、ASML、甲骨文、Palantir)，它们的总市值加起来，超过了30万亿美元。当前美股最新总市值大约92.5万亿美元，这15家就占了三分之一；当前A股总市值118.27万亿元，折合17.25万亿美元，这15家的总市值是其1.75倍！2025年，美国名义GDP30.8万亿美元，差不多刚好是这15家的总市值！这个风暴还不止发生在美股，韩国三星电子，年初至今股价涨幅超3.7倍，市值突破1.04万亿美元；韩国SK海力士，同期涨幅超3.6倍，市值涨至7千亿美元；A股这边，工业富联股价1年3倍，市值一度超过1.6万亿元，成为首个受益于AI产业的万亿市值巨头；中际旭创，一年涨超10倍，市值最高时同样突破万亿元；还有大量的芯片、光通信、PCB龙头，市值同样短时间内飙升几倍，跻身为千亿市值巨头。可以说，这绝对是人类有史以来最极致的一次全球性资产暴涨潮。面对如此史诗级的资产狂潮，有人翻出2000年互联网泡沫的旧报纸，试图证明这一切终将灰飞烟灭。但他们忘了一件事。人类历史上，没有一次真正的文明级变革，会因为“看起来太贵”而停下脚步。这一次同样如此。01纵观人类文明史，本质上就是科技不断突破生理、环境、认知局限的进化史。其中有一个规律从未被打破：谁抓住了时代的核心科技，谁就抓住了财富的密码。农耕时代，铁器、水利是核心科技，掌握先进农耕技术的人，成为当时时代的最大受益者；工业时代，蒸汽机、电力是核心科技，催生了钢铁、能源、制造业巨头，成就了一批跨越百年的企业；信息时代，互联网是核心科技，苹果、谷歌、微软、meta、腾讯，阿里等科技巨头，创造了前所未有的市值神话；而今天，智能时代的核心科技，就是算力。这一次，算力的载体是超大规模AI集群。几万张、几十万张GPU连在一起，像一座数字时代的巨型电站。单是训练一个前沿大模型消耗的电力，就够一个普通家庭用上几百年。而这样的集群，全世界正在以每周数个的速度拔地而起。谁控制了最大的算力集群，谁就定义了智能的上限。OpenAI、Google、Meta、xAI……它们之间的竞争，表面上是模型参数的竞赛，实质上是算力储备的军备竞赛。马斯克说要建10万张H100的集群，黄仁勋说未来的数据中心会是“AI工厂”——这些巨头们，丝毫不掩饰对算力的极致渴望。他们在疯买算力，不是因为疯狂，而是因为足够清醒。算力的最大价值，就在于它的需求是“永续性、无上限”的。未来人类社会，必将全面迈向智能化，算力的渗透将无孔不入，如同水和空气一样，成为人类生存、发展的必需品，且需求永不枯竭、持续扩容。比如在产业层面，工业无人化、智能制造、数字孪生、工业仿真……这些高大上的词背后，全都需要海量算力支撑，才能实现决策智能化、生产自动化、降低成本、提升效率；生活层面，自动驾驶、人形机器人、智能家居、AI助手、元宇宙等场景的普及，更需要实时算力保障体验，让科技真正融入日常生活，改变人类的生活方式；尤其是前沿探索层面，生命科学（药物研发、基因测序、抗衰老研究）、空间探索（星际模拟、航天计算、太空移民）、量子科技、可控核聚变等领域的突破，更需要顶级算力作为支撑，去帮助人类突破认知边界。更重要的是，算力的需求不会因经济周期、政策调整而减少，反而会随着智能化时代的推进持续不断提升需求总量。这种“无上限、不可逆”的刚需，是任何传统行业都无法比拟的优势。02智能时代有三大最基础的要素——算力、电力、数据。但凭什么算力最核心？打个比方。数据，是新时代的“原油”。它埋藏在每个点击、每段对话、每张图片里。2025年，全球每年产生的数据量已经超过175ZB——堆在一起，需要几十亿块12TB的硬盘才能装下。但没有算力炼化，这些原油不过是地底下没人开采的淤泥。电力，是新时代的“血液”。它驱动一切运转，但血液本身不会思考，不会决策。AI集群的耗电量确实在以惊人的速度膨胀，以至于有些数据中心不得不建在核电站旁边。电网公司甚至开始要求算力客户提前三年下用电申请——这在历史上从未发生过。但如果没有算力，一切归零。没有算力，数据只是一堆沉默的比特，电力也只能点亮灯泡，点不亮智能。这才是“基石”的真正含义——它是地基之下那块石头，抽掉它，整座大厦瞬间崩塌。想象一下电力的历史。一旦人类用上了电，就再也回不去没有电的夜晚。电灯、电话、电视、电脑……每一项发明都在加深人类对电的依赖，直到它成为像空气一样的存在。算力正在经历同样的过程。今天，你已经完全离不开手机、电脑电子设备，你打开的每一个应用、敲下的每一个字背后，都要消耗大量的算力。你甚至不知道，当你用手机拍照的一瞬间，背后有十几个AI模型同时运行——人脸检测、场景识别、HDR融合、降噪……每一个都需要算力。2030年，你会觉得“没有算力的一天”，就像今天觉得“没有电的一天”一样荒谬。一旦算力侵入一个领域，它就永不退潮。03这还不是全部。算力最迷人的地方在于——人类对算力的贪婪，没有上限。你可以少买一辆车、少买一部手机、少喝一杯咖啡。经济学家管这叫“需求弹性”——价格高了，人们自然买得少。但你不会让AI“少思考一点”。而如果你想让AI变聪明一点点，需要的算力要翻很多倍。德勤的报告预测，到2026年，推理将占据三分之二的AI计算量；到2030年，这个比例可能达到75%。这意味着，算力需求不是一条向上的斜线，而是一条加速陡峭的曲线。因为全球如果有一亿人每天问AI十个问题，那一天的推理算力消耗，就相当于重新训练一遍GPT-4。另一边，算力的供给端却像跑在泥沼里。现在，芯片制程已经逼近物理极限。3纳米、2纳米、1纳米……每一步难如登天。台积电的2纳米工厂投资超过300亿美元，从动工到量产需要四五年。就算技术突破，产能爬坡也不是一朝一夕。全球只有一家公司能生产最顶尖的极紫外光刻机——荷兰的ASML。一台机器3.5亿美元，年产只有几十台。每台机器重达180吨，需要三架波音747才能运完。你想增加产能？对不起，蔡司的光学镜片磨不出来，通快的激光器造不出来。还有能源。一个大型AI集群的耗电量，堪比一座中型城市。在美国，很多新建的“数据中心巷”因为当地电网不堪重负而被迫暂停，新项目并网等待时间长达数年。算力公司开始自己建电站、买核反应堆，这在一年前还是笑话，如今却是普遍都在做的事。也就是说，算力需求以指数级狂奔，但供给却被缚住手脚。这个“超级缺口”，将是未来十年的结构性主题。04站在今天，看向未来十年，算力产业链的路径极其清晰：英伟达、博通、AMD，还有那些躲在幕后但不可或缺的HBM厂商（SK海力士、美光）、先进封装厂（台积电的CoWoS、日月光）、半导体设备商（ASML、应用材料、KLA）。无论AI模型未来谁赢、谁输，这些“卖铲人”都会赢。掘金热里，最稳赚不赔的是卖铲子的人。这个道理，几百年来从未失效。1849年加州淘金热，真正发财的不是大多数淘金客，而是卖铲子、卖牛仔裤的李维斯。今天，这些AI“卖铲人”卖出的是人类历史上最贵、最稀缺、也最不可或缺的“铲子”。还有光模块、高速互联、交换机……算力集群每扩大一倍，互联带宽的需求就翻几倍。从800G到1.6T到3.2T，光模块的升级速度远远超过了传统的“四年一代”。美股、A股里的光通信标的为什么能一年涨几倍、十几倍？因为它们是算力时代的“神经网络”。没有它们，再强的算力芯片也只能单打独斗，组不成军团。甚至还有量子计算、光子计算、存内计算、边缘AI算力……这些听起来还很遥远的技术，都有可能在未来十年诞生出新的算力王者。05写在最后投资的本质，是认知的变现；而认知的高度，决定了收益的上限。我们要跳出股市的短期博弈，多从人类文明进化、国家科技发展、行业技术迭代的角度，思考算力的价值，提升自身的格局视野。算力作为智能时代核心基石的本质，有着“刚需不可逆、地位不可替、壁垒不可破、增长无上限”的底层逻辑，无疑让它能成为当下最伟大的投资方向之一。投资算力，甚至不需要你相信任何一家公司、任何一个CEO、任何一条技术路线。你只需要相信一件事：人类对智能的渴望，是刻在基因里的本能。而算力，是一切智能的物理化身。或许二十年后，人们回望2025—2030年，会说：那是铁路时代的1860年代，那是电力时代的1900年代，那是互联网时代的1995年。只是这一次，浪潮比任何一次都更确定、更汹涌、更不可阻挡。面对如此令人激动的新时代和新世界，你是拥抱？还是漠视？","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ASMH":0.6,"TSM":1.89,"03165":0.6,"04335":1.86,"STSM":0.6,"MSFT":1.85,"GGLS":0.6,"ASMG":0.6,"AVL":0.6,"META":1.85,"AAPL":1.85,"ORCL":1.83,"AMDL":0.6,"5RE.SI":0.67,"MUD":0.6,"AMDG":0.6,"AMYY":0.6,"AIYY":0.6,"ASML":1.87,"AMDD":0.6,"AMZN":1.84,"AVGW":0.6,"MU":1.87,"ASMU":0.6,"ORCS":0.6,"TSMZ":0.6,"ORCX":0.6,"AMD":1.85,"GOOP":0.6,"DAMD":0.6,"AMDY":0.6,"AVGU":0.6,"AMDU":0.6,"GOOY":0.6,"TSLA":1.84,"MULL":0.6,"AMUU":0.6,"SNXX":0.6,"MUU":0.6,"ORCU":0.6,"AVGX":0.6,"AVGG":0.6,"GOOGL":1.91,"NVDA":1.97,"GOOW":0.6,"TSMX":0.6,"GGLL":0.6,"GOOX":0.6,"LINT":0.6,"03145":0.6,"AVS":0.6,"GOU":0.6,"TSMY":0.6,"AVGO":1.87,"WTAI":0.76,"TSMG":0.6,"AMDW":0.6,"AMDS":0.6,"INTC":1.86,"INTW":0.6,"TSMU":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"cau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