老郭的分析非常理性，_老虎社区_美港股上老虎 - 老虎社区

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大树獭
05-06

老郭的分析非常理性，目前大部分利好都是可能性，甚至可能性都算不上。但很可惜，市场并不理性

谷歌新TPU订单会流向英特尔吗？郭明𫓹：谷歌连联发科的利润也想省，台积电良率优势显著

郭明𫓹指出，英特尔EMIB-T先进封装当前验证良率约90%，但距量产所需98%仍有明显差距，成为关键风险点。与此同时，谷歌为压缩AI芯片成本、对标英伟达，正尝试绕开联发科并直接向台积电采购晶圆，推动供应链重构。台积电则在产能分配与合作路径上谨慎平衡多方利益。整体来看，封装良率与成本控制正共同决定谷歌AI芯片战略成败。

谷歌新TPU订单会流向英特尔吗？郭明𫓹：谷歌连联发科的利润也想省，台积电良率优势显著

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src=\"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/141737cc-27ce-4c63-8009-c6dc12be804a.png\"/></p>\n<p>与此同时，谷歌已悄然向<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>询价，探讨能否绕开<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002394\">联发</a>科、直接下单Humufish主计算芯片的晶圆订单，以削减中间环节的加价成本。这一动作释放出明确信号：谷歌正从过去的宽松买家转变为精打细算的成本控制者，其逻辑在于，要在AI加速芯片市场正面挑战英伟达，成本优势是谷歌的核心武器，而EMIB-T的量产良率因此直接关系到谷歌的竞争力。</p>\n<h2>良率瓶颈：从90%到98%是最难的一跳</h2>\n<p>郭明𫓹指出，EMIB-T目前90%的技术验证良率，对于一项仍处于开发阶段的技术而言，是一个积极的里程碑。英特尔在EMIB量产方面拥有一定的历史积累，这使得这一数字具备可信度。</p>\n<p>然而，技术验证良率与最终量产良率之间存在本质差异。英特尔衡量封装良率的参照基准是FCBGA，而当前行业FCBGA良率普遍高于98%。郭明𫓹强调，从90%跨越至98%，难度远大于从项目启动阶段爬升至90%，尤其是在Humufish部分规格尚未定稿的情况下，良率的最终走向存在更多变量。</p>\n<p>作为参照，台积电2026年5.5倍光罩尺寸CoWoS封装的良率目标同样从98%起步，这意味着谷歌对EMIB-T的良率预期并无妥协空间。郭明𫓹表示，长期而言他对英特尔先进封装的发展方向持正面看法，但近至中期内对其能否顺利达到量产标准保持审慎态度。</p>\n<h2>谷歌转向强硬：成本压力倒逼供应链重构</h2>\n<p>谷歌近期向台积电发出询问，探讨是否可以直接为Humufish主计算芯片（由谷歌内部自主设计）下达晶圆订单，而非沿用此前通过联发科中转的模式。</p>\n<p>郭明𫓹分析，谷歌与联发科自第一代TPU（8t）起便采用半COT（客户自有工具）模式合作。联发科的利润加成主要集中在其自主设计的部分，因此谷歌是否直接下单主计算芯片的晶圆，对联发科整体盈利轨迹的影响并非关键变量。</p>\n<p>但谷歌主动探询能否压缩晶圆订单的转手加价，本身已传递出重要信息：谷歌的采购策略已发生根本性转变。驱动这一转变的逻辑直接明了——要在AI芯片市场正面对抗英伟达，成本是谷歌最重要的竞争筹码，这也使得EMIB-T的量产良率从供应链技术问题，升级为谷歌必须亲自解决的战略问题。</p>\n<h2>台积电的两难：前端产能分配悬而未决</h2>\n<p>台积电目前仍在评估2027年下半年为Humufish分配多少先进制程产能，背后存在两重考量。</p>\n<p>其一，台积电仍希望争取Humufish的后端封装订单，但目前来看可能性不大——而这正是谷歌有意为之的布局结果。其二，台积电需要先摸清EMIB-T的实际后端产出能力，才能避免将稀缺的先进制程产能错配至无法充分消化的环节。</p>\n<p>郭明𫓹指出，Humufish的有效后端产出同时取决于EMIB-T封装和基板两个环节，两者需要联动追踪，任何一环的瓶颈都将影响整体出货节奏。</p>\n<p>在半COT模式下，台积电同样倾向于由联发科继续承接主计算芯片的晶圆订单。除双方长期紧密的合作关系外，更关键的商业逻辑在于：联发科是台积电2025年先进制程的第三大客户。一旦TPU订单发生转移，联发科的规模体量使其成为台积电重新平衡晶圆产能分配结构的天然缓冲器。这意味着，台积电在这场供应链博弈中，有其自身维护现有秩序的内在动力。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-05-04 13:20</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>下一代TPU芯片的封装技术路线正面临关键考验。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">谷歌</a>2027年下半年新款TPU（代号Humufish）提供的EMIB-T封装技术，目前技术验证良率已达90%，但距离量产所需标准仍有差距，而谷歌为压缩成本、正面迎战<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>所展现出的强硬采购姿态，正在重塑整条供应链的利益格局。</p>\n<p>知名<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>及科技供应链分析师郭明𫓹最新披露，EMIB-T当前90%的技术验证良率属于积极但合理的数据点，然而英特尔的量产良率基准参照的是FCBGA工艺，后者行业普遍水平已在98%以上。从90%提升至98%的难度，远超从零起步至90%的阶段，加之Humufish部分规格尚未最终确定，近至中期内量产良率能否达标仍存在不确定性。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/141737cc-27ce-4c63-8009-c6dc12be804a.png\"/></p>\n<p>与此同时，谷歌已悄然向<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>询价，探讨能否绕开<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002394\">联发</a>科、直接下单Humufish主计算芯片的晶圆订单，以削减中间环节的加价成本。这一动作释放出明确信号：谷歌正从过去的宽松买家转变为精打细算的成本控制者，其逻辑在于，要在AI加速芯片市场正面挑战英伟达，成本优势是谷歌的核心武器，而EMIB-T的量产良率因此直接关系到谷歌的竞争力。</p>\n<h2>良率瓶颈：从90%到98%是最难的一跳</h2>\n<p>郭明𫓹指出，EMIB-T目前90%的技术验证良率，对于一项仍处于开发阶段的技术而言，是一个积极的里程碑。英特尔在EMIB量产方面拥有一定的历史积累，这使得这一数字具备可信度。</p>\n<p>然而，技术验证良率与最终量产良率之间存在本质差异。英特尔衡量封装良率的参照基准是FCBGA，而当前行业FCBGA良率普遍高于98%。郭明𫓹强调，从90%跨越至98%，难度远大于从项目启动阶段爬升至90%，尤其是在Humufish部分规格尚未定稿的情况下，良率的最终走向存在更多变量。</p>\n<p>作为参照，台积电2026年5.5倍光罩尺寸CoWoS封装的良率目标同样从98%起步，这意味着谷歌对EMIB-T的良率预期并无妥协空间。郭明𫓹表示，长期而言他对英特尔先进封装的发展方向持正面看法，但近至中期内对其能否顺利达到量产标准保持审慎态度。</p>\n<h2>谷歌转向强硬：成本压力倒逼供应链重构</h2>\n<p>谷歌近期向台积电发出询问，探讨是否可以直接为Humufish主计算芯片（由谷歌内部自主设计）下达晶圆订单，而非沿用此前通过联发科中转的模式。</p>\n<p>郭明𫓹分析，谷歌与联发科自第一代TPU（8t）起便采用半COT（客户自有工具）模式合作。联发科的利润加成主要集中在其自主设计的部分，因此谷歌是否直接下单主计算芯片的晶圆，对联发科整体盈利轨迹的影响并非关键变量。</p>\n<p>但谷歌主动探询能否压缩晶圆订单的转手加价，本身已传递出重要信息：谷歌的采购策略已发生根本性转变。驱动这一转变的逻辑直接明了——要在AI芯片市场正面对抗英伟达，成本是谷歌最重要的竞争筹码，这也使得EMIB-T的量产良率从供应链技术问题，升级为谷歌必须亲自解决的战略问题。</p>\n<h2>台积电的两难：前端产能分配悬而未决</h2>\n<p>台积电目前仍在评估2027年下半年为Humufish分配多少先进制程产能，背后存在两重考量。</p>\n<p>其一，台积电仍希望争取Humufish的后端封装订单，但目前来看可能性不大——而这正是谷歌有意为之的布局结果。其二，台积电需要先摸清EMIB-T的实际后端产出能力，才能避免将稀缺的先进制程产能错配至无法充分消化的环节。</p>\n<p>郭明𫓹指出，Humufish的有效后端产出同时取决于EMIB-T封装和基板两个环节，两者需要联动追踪，任何一环的瓶颈都将影响整体出货节奏。</p>\n<p>在半COT模式下，台积电同样倾向于由联发科继续承接主计算芯片的晶圆订单。除双方长期紧密的合作关系外，更关键的商业逻辑在于：联发科是台积电2025年先进制程的第三大客户。一旦TPU订单发生转移，联发科的规模体量使其成为台积电重新平衡晶圆产能分配结构的天然缓冲器。这意味着，台积电在这场供应链博弈中，有其自身维护现有秩序的内在动力。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0211326755.USD":"TEMPLETON 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