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阿之007
02-23

久攻不上，必有一泄

英伟达“滞涨”数月，本周“全球最重要财报”拉得动吗？

如果业绩无法安抚躁动的市场，随之而来的波动恐将波及AI板块乃至整个大盘。

英伟达“滞涨”数月，本周“全球最重要财报”拉得动吗？

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

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style=\"text-align: justify;\">“如果英伟达打个喷嚏，所有人都会感冒。”Equity Armor Investments 首席执行官 Luke Rahbari 如是说。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">作为过去几年美股牛市无可争议的擎天柱，英伟达股价数月来一直横盘震荡，去年Q4以来，英伟达股价仅微涨1.7%，跑输了同期标普500指数3.3%的涨幅；2026年开年以来，英伟达回报表现落入标普500下半区。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">本周三，英伟达将公布备受瞩目的第四季度及全年财报。华尔街的共识是：业绩依然会很强，甚至会“碾压”分析师的预期。但在AI质疑论升温与宏观局势动荡的背景下，真正的问题在于：<strong>仅仅“好”还足够吗？</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38f2cbbb9ee9ca1749ca6518ffc757c4\" tg-width=\"701\" tg-height=\"561\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_1699324668\">本周“全球最重要财报”拉得动吗？</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“从基本面看，英伟达的故事依然强硬，问题在于市场情绪能否跟上。”Northwestern Mutual 财富管理公司首席股票投资组合经理 Matt Stucky 表示。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">投资者正面临一种典型的“预期悖论”。虽然市场普遍预计英伟达将调高未来几个季度的指引，但历史数据显示，在过去两次财报发布后，英伟达股价均遭遇了抛售。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Wayve Capital Management 首席策略师 Rhys Williams 警告称，股价可能会因为业绩“不够好”而下跌。</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: 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href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3765963\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f1c866c487eb9e101f73a62d4495ce9","relate_stocks":{"LU0128525929.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL \"A\" (USD) ACC","3NVD.UK":"LS 3X NVIDIA","LU1951198990.SGD":"Natixis Thematics AI & Robotics Fund H-R/A SGD-H","LU1244550577.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Global Multi-Asset Income A (Mdis) SGD-H1","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","LU1951200564.SGD":"Natixis Thematics AI & Robotics Fund R/A SGD","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","LU0006306889.USD":"SCHRODER ISF US LARGE CAP \"A\" (USD) INC AV","LU0683600562.USD":"AB SELECT US EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1923623000.USD":"Natixis Thematics AI & Robotics Fund R/A USD","LU0672654240.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD-H1","LU2125909247.SGD":"Natixis Thematics Meta H-R/A 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警告称，股价可能会因为业绩“不够好”而下跌。“根据我们的观察，即便官方财报和指引没有问题，只是可能达不到预期。”这种困境并非英伟达独有。曾经作为市场最大贡献者的科技“七巨头”（Mag7），去年Q4以来整体下跌近1%，同期表现逊于标普500指数。投资者们谨慎情绪的背后，是对巨头们数千亿美元AI资本开支（Capex）能否转化为实际利润的深刻焦虑。微软此前发布强劲财报后股价反跌，正是因为投资者死盯着Azure增速放缓与创纪录的支出预期不放。宏观逆风——当AI遇到复杂的2026除了行业内部的估值修正，英伟达还必须面对复杂的宏观环境。2026年的开局充满了不确定性。地缘政治上，特朗普政府对伊朗发出的攻击威胁令市场神经紧绷；政策层面，最高法院刚刚否决了特朗普总统的关税政策——尽管这对美企通常被视为利好，但也让白宫后续的经济政策走向变得扑朔迷离。经济数据同样喜忧参半。周五发布的数据显示经济增长正在放缓，而通胀依然顽固。在经历了一个“疲软的2025年”后，劳动力市场虽有企稳迹象，但这反而促使交易员押注美联储将对进一步降息持审慎态度。在这样充满噪音的宏观背景下，英伟达想要凭借财报扭转乾坤，难度可想而知。估值洼地还是价值陷阱？不过，长达数月的滞涨也并非全无益处——它为英伟达挤掉了不少泡沫。目前，英伟达的远期市盈率已回落至24倍以下，接近五年来的最低点，且远低于38倍的五年平均水平。MFA Wealth 首席股票策略师 Will McMahon 认为，相对便宜的估值可能成为买入的催化剂：“人们仍视英伟达为市场救世主，希望它能平息当前的市场情绪波动。”但低估值只是入场券，要重启涨势，CEO黄仁勋必须讲好新的故事，特别是关于市场份额的防御战。随着AMD、亚马逊、博通和Alphabet（谷歌母公司）纷纷推出用于生成AI模型的“推理芯片”，竞争格局正在发生微妙变化。Mapsignals 首席投资策略师 Alec Young 指出，在市场确信英伟达能维持其市场份额和订单流之前，其估值倍数将持续受到压缩。Matt Stucky 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