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2021-02-17

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Is This Oil Rally The Start Of Something Much Bigger?<blockquote>这次油价上涨是更大事件的开始吗？</blockquote>

Commodities have rallied in recent months, outperforming equity indexes amid expectations of an econ

Is This Oil Rally The Start Of Something Much Bigger?<blockquote>这次油价上涨是更大事件的开始吗？</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":385631689,"tweetId":"385631689","gmtCreate":1613540201841,"gmtModify":1631890613319,"author":{"id":3574770700496796,"idStr":"3574770700496796","authorId":3574770700496796,"authorIdStr":"3574770700496796","name":"WadeW","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/515948ceeb9bc7c8764d485f743405e0","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":2,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GTE\">$Gran Tierra(GTE)$</a>yea boi</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GTE\">$Gran Tierra(GTE)$</a>yea boi</body></html>","text":"$Gran Tierra(GTE)$yea boi","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/385631689","repostId":1146053060,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146053060","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1613540252,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1146053060?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-17 13:37","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"Is This Oil Rally The Start Of Something Much Bigger?<blockquote>这次油价上涨是更大事件的开始吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146053060","media":"Oilprice","summary":"Commodities have rallied in recent months, outperforming equity indexes amid expectations of an econ","content":"Commodities have rallied in recent months, outperforming equity indexes amid expectations of an economic recovery, easy monetary policy, and rising inflation.<blockquote>在经济复苏、宽松货币政策和通胀上升的预期下，大宗商品近几个月来上涨，表现优于股指。</blockquote> The commodity bull run across the board—spearheaded by a 50-percent jump in oil prices over the past three months—isn’t finished running, analysts and investment banks say. Some of the biggest investment banks have even started to call the start of a new commodities supercycle, which by definition, lasts years—typically about a decade.<blockquote>分析师和投资银行表示，在过去三个月油价上涨50%的带动下，大宗商品全面牛市尚未结束。一些最大的投资银行甚至开始看涨期权新的大宗商品超级周期的开始，根据定义，这一周期会持续数年——通常约为十年。</blockquote> Yet, not all investment banks and analysts are as convinced that we are in for a commodities supercycle across the board, warning that the termsupercycleis too optimistic for a bull run that could fizzle out within a year or two and could still fall victim to negative COVID-related impacts.<blockquote>然而，并非所有投资银行和分析师都相信我们将全面进入大宗商品超级周期，并警告称，超级循环对于牛市来说过于乐观，牛市可能会在一两年内失败，并且仍可能成为与新冠病毒相关的负面影响的受害者。</blockquote> Commodity Rally<blockquote>大宗商品反弹</blockquote> As early as in October 2020, a few weeks before the first announcement of an&nbsp;effective vaccine candidate, Goldman Sachs&nbsp;said&nbsp;that commodities were headed toward a bull run in 2021. Hedges against expectations of rising inflation, a weakening U.S. dollar in which most commodities are traded, and signals of “very easy” monetary policy from central banks would be the key drivers of rallying commodities, Goldman Sachs said back then.<blockquote>早在2020年10月，即首次宣布有效候选疫苗的几周前，高盛就表示大宗商品将在2021年走向牛市。高盛当时表示，对冲通胀上升的预期、大多数大宗商品交易的美元走软以及央行“非常宽松”货币政策的信号将是大宗商品上涨的关键驱动力。</blockquote> Goldman expected the S&amp;P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI) to return 42.6 percent for energy over a 12-month period, and 17.9 percent for precious metals.<blockquote>高盛预计，标普高盛商品指数(GSCI)在12个月内能源回报率为42.6%，贵金属回报率为17.9%。</blockquote> Over the past three months, the&nbsp;S&amp;P GSCI has outperformed&nbsp;the S&amp;P 500 index, with the commodity index rising by 25 percent, compared to (just) a 9-percent increase in the S&amp;P 500.<blockquote>过去三个月，标普GSCI的表现优于标普500指数，大宗商品指数上涨了25%，而标普500（仅）上涨了9%。</blockquote> Over the same period, oil prices have rallied from the low $40s to above $60 a barrel, driven by vaccine rollouts, OPEC+ production cuts, and expectations of a tight market and rising oil demand later this year when economies return to growth, helped by large stimulus packages.<blockquote>同期，受疫苗推出、OPEC+减产以及对今年晚些时候经济恢复增长时市场紧张和石油需求上升的预期推动，油价从每桶40美元的低点反弹至60美元以上。大型刺激方案。</blockquote> Some Drivers Of A New Supercycle Are Here…<blockquote>新超级周期的一些驱动因素在这里……</blockquote> According to JPMorgan, there are reasons to believe that a new commodity supercycle may have just started.<blockquote>摩根大通表示，有理由相信，一个新的大宗商品超级周期可能刚刚开始。</blockquote> “We believe that the new commodity upswing, and in particular oil up cycle, has started,” JPMorgan analysts led by Marko Kolanovic said in a note last week, as carried by&nbsp;Bloomberg.<blockquote>据彭博社报道，以马尔科·科拉诺维奇为首的摩根大通分析师上周在一份报告中表示：“我们认为，新的大宗商品上涨，特别是石油上涨周期已经开始。”</blockquote> The latest commodity supercycle ended in 2008 after a 12-year run, boosted by the super-spending and economic surge in China.<blockquote>在中国过度支出和经济飙升的推动下，最近一次大宗商品超级周期在经历了12年后于2008年结束。</blockquote> JPMorgan now sees several&nbsp;potential factors&nbsp;underpinning a new supercycle: post-pandemic global economic growth, “ultra loose” monetary policies, increased and tolerated inflation, weakening U.S. dollar, financial inflows to hedge inflation, metals for energy transition markets such as batteries and electric vehicles (EVs), and underinvestment in new oil supply.<blockquote>摩根大通现在看到了支撑新超级周期的几个潜在因素：大流行后的全球经济增长、“超宽松”货币政策、通胀上升和可容忍、美元走软、对冲通胀的资金流入、电池和电动汽车等能源转型市场的金属（EV），以及对新石油供应的投资不足。</blockquote> The International Energy Agency (IEA)&nbsp;warned&nbsp;last year that if investment in oil were to stay at the 2020 levels over the next five years, it would reduce the previously expected level of oil supply in 2025 by nearly 9 million barrels per day (bpd).<blockquote>国际能源署（IEA）去年警告称，如果未来五年石油投资保持在2020年的水平，将使此前预期的2025年石油供应水平减少近900万桶/日（bpd）。</blockquote> This year, global upstream investments will stay low, just like they were in 2020, Wood Mackenzie&nbsp;said&nbsp;in December, expecting upstream oil and gas investment at a 15-year low of just US$300 billion, down by 30 percent from the pre-crisis level of investment in 2019.<blockquote>Wood Mackenzie在12月表示，今年，全球上游投资将保持在低位，就像2020年一样，预计上游石油和天然气投资将处于15年来的最低点，仅为3000亿美元，比2019年危机前的投资水平下降30%。</blockquote> “The world may be sleepwalking into a supply crunch, albeit beyond 2021. A recovery in oil demand back to over 100 million b/d by late 2022 increases risk of a material supply gap later this decade, triggering an upward spike in price,” said Simon Flowers, Chairman and Chief Analyst at WoodMac.<blockquote>“尽管在2021年之后，世界可能会梦游般地陷入供应紧缩。到2022年底，石油需求恢复到1亿桶/日以上，这增加了本十年晚些时候材料供应缺口的风险，引发价格飙升，”WoodMac董事长兼首席分析师西蒙·弗劳尔斯(Simon Flowers)表示。</blockquote> Then, “very easy monetary policy” and reflation trade could push oil pricesas high as $100 a barrel&nbsp;next year, Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst at Energy Aspects, told Bloomberg earlier this month.<blockquote>Energy Aspects首席石油分析师阿姆里塔·森(Amrita Sen)本月早些时候对彭博社表示，“非常宽松的货币政策”和通货再膨胀贸易可能会将明年油价推高至每桶100美元。</blockquote> In the week to February 9, hedge funds increased bullish bets on 24 major commodity futures by 5 percent to a fresh high of 2.7 million lots, representing a nominal value of $143.7 billion, Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank,said, commenting on the latest Commitments of Traders report.<blockquote>盛宝银行大宗商品策略主管Ole Hansen在评论交易员最新承诺报告时表示，截至2月9日的一周，对冲基金对24种主要商品期货的看涨押注增加了5%，达到270万手的新高，名义价值为1437亿美元。</blockquote> The combined net long position—the difference between bullish and bearish bets—in Brent and WTI has now increased to the highest in 28 months, while the net long in the grain sector in agriculture is not far from the record set in August 2012, Hansen noted.<blockquote>汉森指出，布伦特原油和WTI原油的净多头头寸（看涨和看跌押注之间的差额）现已升至28个月来的最高水平，而农业中谷物板块的净多头距离2012年8月创下的纪录不远。</blockquote> Post-pandemic growth, tightening supply, and continued demand for reflation hedges pushed the Bloomberg Commodity index to a 27-month high, Hansen said.<blockquote>汉森表示，大流行后的增长、供应收紧以及对通货再膨胀对冲的持续需求将彭博大宗商品指数推至27个月高点。</blockquote> But Is This The Start Of The Next Commodities Supercycle?<blockquote>但这是下一个大宗商品超级周期的开始吗？</blockquote> Although crude oil and other commodities have rallied and signals have emerged to support the call for a new supercycle, some analysts are cautious and say it is a little early to proclaim the beginning of the next commodity supercycle.<blockquote>尽管原油和其他大宗商品出现反弹，并出现了支持看涨期权进入新一轮超级周期的信号，但一些分析师持谨慎态度，称现在宣布下一轮大宗商品超级周期的开始还为时过早。</blockquote> What we see in oil and commodities right now is a cyclical recovery, but a supercycle could be “two to three years away,” George Cheveley, portfolio manager at asset management company Ninety One, told&nbsp;Financial Times’ Natural Resources Editor Neil Hume.<blockquote>资产管理公司Ninety One的投资组合经理George Cheveley对英国《金融时报》自然资源编辑Neil Hume表示，我们目前在石油和大宗商品中看到的是周期性复苏，但超级周期可能“还需要两到三年的时间”。</blockquote> This bull run is unlikely to turn into a supercycle for commodities, because while investment may be depressed, “the material is abundant” for many commodities, including crude oil, Ed Morse, managing director and global head of commodities research at Citigroup, told the&nbsp;Financial Post&nbsp;in an interview last week.<blockquote>花旗集团董事总经理兼大宗商品研究全球主管埃德·莫尔斯(Ed Morse)表示，本轮牛市不太可能演变成大宗商品的超级周期，因为尽管投资可能低迷，但包括原油在内的许多大宗商品“材料丰富”。上周接受《金融邮报》采访时。</blockquote> Commodities have certainly benefited from the optimism that post-COVID growth and stimulus packages will boost demand and prices, but it may be a little premature to trumpet the next decade-long across-the-board commodities supercycle.<blockquote>大宗商品无疑受益于人们的乐观情绪，即新冠疫情后的增长和刺激计划将提振需求和价格，但现在宣扬下一个长达十年的全面大宗商品超级周期可能还为时过早。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1606109400967","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs This Oil Rally The Start Of Something Much Bigger?<blockquote>这次油价上涨是更大事件的开始吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nOilprice2021-02-17 13:37\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nCommodities have rallied in recent months, outperforming equity indexes amid expectations of an economic recovery, easy monetary policy, and rising inflation.<blockquote>在经济复苏、宽松货币政策和通胀上升的预期下，大宗商品近几个月来上涨，表现优于股指。</blockquote> The commodity bull run across the board—spearheaded by a 50-percent jump in oil prices over the past three months—isn’t finished running, analysts and investment banks say. Some of the biggest investment banks have even started to call the start of a new commodities supercycle, which by definition, lasts years—typically about a decade.<blockquote>分析师和投资银行表示，在过去三个月油价上涨50%的带动下，大宗商品全面牛市尚未结束。一些最大的投资银行甚至开始看涨期权新的大宗商品超级周期的开始，根据定义，这一周期会持续数年——通常约为十年。</blockquote> Yet, not all investment banks and analysts are as convinced that we are in for a commodities supercycle across the board, warning that the termsupercycleis too optimistic for a bull run that could fizzle out within a year or two and could still fall victim to negative COVID-related impacts.<blockquote>然而，并非所有投资银行和分析师都相信我们将全面进入大宗商品超级周期，并警告称，超级循环对于牛市来说过于乐观，牛市可能会在一两年内失败，并且仍可能成为与新冠病毒相关的负面影响的受害者。</blockquote> Commodity Rally<blockquote>大宗商品反弹</blockquote> As early as in October 2020, a few weeks before the first announcement of an&nbsp;effective vaccine candidate, Goldman Sachs&nbsp;said&nbsp;that commodities were headed toward a bull run in 2021. Hedges against expectations of rising inflation, a weakening U.S. dollar in which most commodities are traded, and signals of “very easy” monetary policy from central banks would be the key drivers of rallying commodities, Goldman Sachs said back then.<blockquote>早在2020年10月，即首次宣布有效候选疫苗的几周前，高盛就表示大宗商品将在2021年走向牛市。高盛当时表示，对冲通胀上升的预期、大多数大宗商品交易的美元走软以及央行“非常宽松”货币政策的信号将是大宗商品上涨的关键驱动力。</blockquote> Goldman expected the S&amp;P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI) to return 42.6 percent for energy over a 12-month period, and 17.9 percent for precious metals.<blockquote>高盛预计，标普高盛商品指数(GSCI)在12个月内能源回报率为42.6%，贵金属回报率为17.9%。</blockquote> Over the past three months, the&nbsp;S&amp;P GSCI has outperformed&nbsp;the S&amp;P 500 index, with the commodity index rising by 25 percent, compared to (just) a 9-percent increase in the S&amp;P 500.<blockquote>过去三个月，标普GSCI的表现优于标普500指数，大宗商品指数上涨了25%，而标普500（仅）上涨了9%。</blockquote> Over the same period, oil prices have rallied from the low $40s to above $60 a barrel, driven by vaccine rollouts, OPEC+ production cuts, and expectations of a tight market and rising oil demand later this year when economies return to growth, helped by large stimulus packages.<blockquote>同期，受疫苗推出、OPEC+减产以及对今年晚些时候经济恢复增长时市场紧张和石油需求上升的预期推动，油价从每桶40美元的低点反弹至60美元以上。大型刺激方案。</blockquote> Some Drivers Of A New Supercycle Are Here…<blockquote>新超级周期的一些驱动因素在这里……</blockquote> According to JPMorgan, there are reasons to believe that a new commodity supercycle may have just started.<blockquote>摩根大通表示，有理由相信，一个新的大宗商品超级周期可能刚刚开始。</blockquote> “We believe that the new commodity upswing, and in particular oil up cycle, has started,” JPMorgan analysts led by Marko Kolanovic said in a note last week, as carried by&nbsp;Bloomberg.<blockquote>据彭博社报道，以马尔科·科拉诺维奇为首的摩根大通分析师上周在一份报告中表示：“我们认为，新的大宗商品上涨，特别是石油上涨周期已经开始。”</blockquote> The latest commodity supercycle ended in 2008 after a 12-year run, boosted by the super-spending and economic surge in China.<blockquote>在中国过度支出和经济飙升的推动下，最近一次大宗商品超级周期在经历了12年后于2008年结束。</blockquote> JPMorgan now sees several&nbsp;potential factors&nbsp;underpinning a new supercycle: post-pandemic global economic growth, “ultra loose” monetary policies, increased and tolerated inflation, weakening U.S. dollar, financial inflows to hedge inflation, metals for energy transition markets such as batteries and electric vehicles (EVs), and underinvestment in new oil supply.<blockquote>摩根大通现在看到了支撑新超级周期的几个潜在因素：大流行后的全球经济增长、“超宽松”货币政策、通胀上升和可容忍、美元走软、对冲通胀的资金流入、电池和电动汽车等能源转型市场的金属（EV），以及对新石油供应的投资不足。</blockquote> The International Energy Agency (IEA)&nbsp;warned&nbsp;last year that if investment in oil were to stay at the 2020 levels over the next five years, it would reduce the previously expected level of oil supply in 2025 by nearly 9 million barrels per day (bpd).<blockquote>国际能源署（IEA）去年警告称，如果未来五年石油投资保持在2020年的水平，将使此前预期的2025年石油供应水平减少近900万桶/日（bpd）。</blockquote> This year, global upstream investments will stay low, just like they were in 2020, Wood Mackenzie&nbsp;said&nbsp;in December, expecting upstream oil and gas investment at a 15-year low of just US$300 billion, down by 30 percent from the pre-crisis level of investment in 2019.<blockquote>Wood Mackenzie在12月表示，今年，全球上游投资将保持在低位，就像2020年一样，预计上游石油和天然气投资将处于15年来的最低点，仅为3000亿美元，比2019年危机前的投资水平下降30%。</blockquote> “The world may be sleepwalking into a supply crunch, albeit beyond 2021. A recovery in oil demand back to over 100 million b/d by late 2022 increases risk of a material supply gap later this decade, triggering an upward spike in price,” said Simon Flowers, Chairman and Chief Analyst at WoodMac.<blockquote>“尽管在2021年之后，世界可能会梦游般地陷入供应紧缩。到2022年底，石油需求恢复到1亿桶/日以上，这增加了本十年晚些时候材料供应缺口的风险，引发价格飙升，”WoodMac董事长兼首席分析师西蒙·弗劳尔斯(Simon Flowers)表示。</blockquote> Then, “very easy monetary policy” and reflation trade could push oil pricesas high as $100 a barrel&nbsp;next year, Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst at Energy Aspects, told Bloomberg earlier this month.<blockquote>Energy Aspects首席石油分析师阿姆里塔·森(Amrita Sen)本月早些时候对彭博社表示，“非常宽松的货币政策”和通货再膨胀贸易可能会将明年油价推高至每桶100美元。</blockquote> In the week to February 9, hedge funds increased bullish bets on 24 major commodity futures by 5 percent to a fresh high of 2.7 million lots, representing a nominal value of $143.7 billion, Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank,said, commenting on the latest Commitments of Traders report.<blockquote>盛宝银行大宗商品策略主管Ole Hansen在评论交易员最新承诺报告时表示，截至2月9日的一周，对冲基金对24种主要商品期货的看涨押注增加了5%，达到270万手的新高，名义价值为1437亿美元。</blockquote> The combined net long position—the difference between bullish and bearish bets—in Brent and WTI has now increased to the highest in 28 months, while the net long in the grain sector in agriculture is not far from the record set in August 2012, Hansen noted.<blockquote>汉森指出，布伦特原油和WTI原油的净多头头寸（看涨和看跌押注之间的差额）现已升至28个月来的最高水平，而农业中谷物板块的净多头距离2012年8月创下的纪录不远。</blockquote> Post-pandemic growth, tightening supply, and continued demand for reflation hedges pushed the Bloomberg Commodity index to a 27-month high, Hansen said.<blockquote>汉森表示，大流行后的增长、供应收紧以及对通货再膨胀对冲的持续需求将彭博大宗商品指数推至27个月高点。</blockquote> But Is This The Start Of The Next Commodities Supercycle?<blockquote>但这是下一个大宗商品超级周期的开始吗？</blockquote> Although crude oil and other commodities have rallied and signals have emerged to support the call for a new supercycle, some analysts are cautious and say it is a little early to proclaim the beginning of the next commodity supercycle.<blockquote>尽管原油和其他大宗商品出现反弹，并出现了支持看涨期权进入新一轮超级周期的信号，但一些分析师持谨慎态度，称现在宣布下一轮大宗商品超级周期的开始还为时过早。</blockquote> What we see in oil and commodities right now is a cyclical recovery, but a supercycle could be “two to three years away,” George Cheveley, portfolio manager at asset management company Ninety One, told&nbsp;Financial Times’ Natural Resources Editor Neil Hume.<blockquote>资产管理公司Ninety One的投资组合经理George Cheveley对英国《金融时报》自然资源编辑Neil Hume表示，我们目前在石油和大宗商品中看到的是周期性复苏，但超级周期可能“还需要两到三年的时间”。</blockquote> This bull run is unlikely to turn into a supercycle for commodities, because while investment may be depressed, “the material is abundant” for many commodities, including crude oil, Ed Morse, managing director and global head of commodities research at Citigroup, told the&nbsp;Financial Post&nbsp;in an interview last week.<blockquote>花旗集团董事总经理兼大宗商品研究全球主管埃德·莫尔斯(Ed Morse)表示，本轮牛市不太可能演变成大宗商品的超级周期，因为尽管投资可能低迷，但包括原油在内的许多大宗商品“材料丰富”。上周接受《金融邮报》采访时。</blockquote> Commodities have certainly benefited from the optimism that post-COVID growth and stimulus packages will boost demand and prices, but it may be a little premature to trumpet the next decade-long across-the-board commodities supercycle.<blockquote>大宗商品无疑受益于人们的乐观情绪，即新冠疫情后的增长和刺激计划将提振需求和价格，但现在宣扬下一个长达十年的全面大宗商品超级周期可能还为时过早。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Is-This-Oil-Rally-The-Start-Of-Something-Much-Bigger.html\">Oilprice</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Is-This-Oil-Rally-The-Start-Of-Something-Much-Bigger.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146053060","content_text":"Commodities have rallied in recent months, outperforming equity indexes amid expectations of an economic recovery, easy monetary policy, and rising inflation.\nThe commodity bull run across the board—spearheaded by a 50-percent jump in oil prices over the past three months—isn’t finished running, analysts and investment banks say. Some of the biggest investment banks have even started to call the start of a new commodities supercycle, which by definition, lasts years—typically about a decade.\nYet, not all investment banks and analysts are as convinced that we are in for a commodities supercycle across the board, warning that the termsupercycleis too optimistic for a bull run that could fizzle out within a year or two and could still fall victim to negative COVID-related impacts.\nCommodity Rally\nAs early as in October 2020, a few weeks before the first announcement of an effective vaccine candidate, Goldman Sachs said that commodities were headed toward a bull run in 2021. Hedges against expectations of rising inflation, a weakening U.S. dollar in which most commodities are traded, and signals of “very easy” monetary policy from central banks would be the key drivers of rallying commodities, Goldman Sachs said back then.\nGoldman expected the S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI) to return 42.6 percent for energy over a 12-month period, and 17.9 percent for precious metals.\nOver the past three months, the S&P GSCI has outperformed the S&P 500 index, with the commodity index rising by 25 percent, compared to (just) a 9-percent increase in the S&P 500.\nOver the same period, oil prices have rallied from the low $40s to above $60 a barrel, driven by vaccine rollouts, OPEC+ production cuts, and expectations of a tight market and rising oil demand later this year when economies return to growth, helped by large stimulus packages.\nSome Drivers Of A New Supercycle Are Here…\nAccording to JPMorgan, there are reasons to believe that a new commodity supercycle may have just started.\n“We believe that the new commodity upswing, and in particular oil up cycle, has started,” JPMorgan analysts led by Marko Kolanovic said in a note last week, as carried by Bloomberg.\nThe latest commodity supercycle ended in 2008 after a 12-year run, boosted by the super-spending and economic surge in China.\nJPMorgan now sees several potential factors underpinning a new supercycle: post-pandemic global economic growth, “ultra loose” monetary policies, increased and tolerated inflation, weakening U.S. dollar, financial inflows to hedge inflation, metals for energy transition markets such as batteries and electric vehicles (EVs), and underinvestment in new oil supply.\nThe International Energy Agency (IEA) warned last year that if investment in oil were to stay at the 2020 levels over the next five years, it would reduce the previously expected level of oil supply in 2025 by nearly 9 million barrels per day (bpd).\nThis year, global upstream investments will stay low, just like they were in 2020, Wood Mackenzie said in December, expecting upstream oil and gas investment at a 15-year low of just US$300 billion, down by 30 percent from the pre-crisis level of investment in 2019.\n“The world may be sleepwalking into a supply crunch, albeit beyond 2021. A recovery in oil demand back to over 100 million b/d by late 2022 increases risk of a material supply gap later this decade, triggering an upward spike in price,” said Simon Flowers, Chairman and Chief Analyst at WoodMac.\nThen, “very easy monetary policy” and reflation trade could push oil pricesas high as $100 a barrel next year, Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst at Energy Aspects, told Bloomberg earlier this month.\nIn the week to February 9, hedge funds increased bullish bets on 24 major commodity futures by 5 percent to a fresh high of 2.7 million lots, representing a nominal value of $143.7 billion, Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank,said, commenting on the latest Commitments of Traders report.\nThe combined net long position—the difference between bullish and bearish bets—in Brent and WTI has now increased to the highest in 28 months, while the net long in the grain sector in agriculture is not far from the record set in August 2012, Hansen noted.\nPost-pandemic growth, tightening supply, and continued demand for reflation hedges pushed the Bloomberg Commodity index to a 27-month high, Hansen said.\nBut Is This The Start Of The Next Commodities Supercycle?\nAlthough crude oil and other commodities have rallied and signals have emerged to support the call for a new supercycle, some analysts are cautious and say it is a little early to proclaim the beginning of the next commodity supercycle.\nWhat we see in oil and commodities right now is a cyclical recovery, but a supercycle could be “two to three years away,” George Cheveley, portfolio manager at asset management company Ninety One, told Financial Times’ Natural Resources Editor Neil Hume.\nThis bull run is unlikely to turn into a supercycle for commodities, because while investment may be depressed, “the material is abundant” for many commodities, including crude oil, Ed Morse, managing director and global head of commodities research at Citigroup, told the Financial Post in an interview last week.\nCommodities have certainly benefited from the optimism that post-COVID growth and stimulus packages will boost demand and prices, but it may be a little premature to trumpet the next decade-long across-the-board commodities supercycle.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLmain":0.9,"BZmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1881,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":["GTE"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":23,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}