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2021-02-17

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What signals the top of a bull market in stocks? Not rising interest rates<blockquote>股票牛市顶部的信号是什么？利率不上升</blockquote>

Treasury yields have risen sharply so far this year CHAPEL HILL, N.C. — Rising interest rates will n

What signals the top of a bull market in stocks? Not rising interest rates<blockquote>股票牛市顶部的信号是什么？利率不上升</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":385621449,"tweetId":"385621449","gmtCreate":1613545875081,"gmtModify":1634553216800,"author":{"id":3575683522809139,"idStr":"3575683522809139","authorId":3575683522809139,"authorIdStr":"3575683522809139","name":"ScarletK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5868eef6300d2210b1f895f1ce46e725","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":0,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>nice</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>nice</body></html>","text":"nice","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/385621449","repostId":1184726502,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1184726502","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1613542262,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1184726502?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-17 14:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What signals the top of a bull market in stocks? Not rising interest rates<blockquote>股票牛市顶部的信号是什么？利率不上升</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184726502","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Treasury yields have risen sharply so far this year\nCHAPEL HILL, N.C. — Rising interest rates will n","content":"Treasury yields have risen sharply so far this year<blockquote>今年迄今为止，美国国债收益率大幅上升</blockquote> CHAPEL HILL, N.C. — Rising interest rates will not be what sabotage this bull market.<blockquote>北卡罗来纳州教堂山——利率上升不会破坏这次牛市。</blockquote> That’s crucial information, since interest rates have risen significantly over the last six months, and especially over the last couple of weeks. The 10-year Treasury yield&nbsp;has more than doubled from where it stood last August, for example, from 0.52% to its current 1.20%. A big chunk of that increase—27 basis points—have come just since the beginning of the year.<blockquote>这是至关重要的信息，因为利率在过去六个月，尤其是过去几周大幅上升。例如，10年期国债收益率较去年8月上涨了一倍多，从0.52%升至目前的1.20%。其中很大一部分（27个基点）是自今年年初以来才出现的。</blockquote> I am revisiting this topic since many readers apparently weren’t convinced by my&nbsp;column earlier this month that there is no historical correlation between interest rates and stock-market returns.As some of you pointed out, that column focused on summary patterns that emerge when analyzing all data back to the 1920s. That is different than focusing on interest-rate trends at bull-market tops in particular. That’s what I am focusing on in this column.<blockquote>我重新审视这个话题，因为许多读者显然不相信我本月早些时候的专栏，即利率和股市回报之间没有历史相关性。正如你们中的一些人指出的，该专栏关注的是分析20世纪20年代以来的所有数据时出现的摘要模式。这与特别关注牛市顶部的利率趋势不同。这就是我在本专栏中关注的内容。</blockquote> Since 1962, which is how far back my database for the 10-year Treasury yield extends, there have been 17 bear markets, according to the calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research. In 10 of those 17 cases, the 10-year Treasury yield when those bear market began was actuallylowerthan where it had stood three months prior. In other words, in more than half of the bear markets the 10-year yield had fallen over the last three months of the preceding bull markets.<blockquote>根据Ned Davis Research维护的日历，自1962年（我的10年期国债收益率数据库可以追溯到1962年）以来，已经经历了17次熊市。在这17个案例中的10个案例中，熊市开始时的10年期国债收益率实际上是降低而不是三个月前的水平。换句话说，在超过一半的熊市中，10年期国债收益率在之前牛市的最后三个月下跌。</blockquote> You shouldn’t conclude from this result that a bear market can’t happen unless interest rates are declining, however. Notice that in seven of these 17 bear markets, interest rates rose over the three months preceding the beginnings of those bear markets. The appropriate conclusion to draw is that interest-rate trends are an unreliable guide to when bull markets will come to an end.<blockquote>然而，你不应该从这个结果中得出结论，除非利率下降，否则熊市不会发生。请注意，在这17个熊市中，有7个熊市的利率在熊市开始前的三个月内上升。要得出的适当结论是，利率趋势并不是牛市何时结束的可靠指南。</blockquote> What about the Fed Funds rate?<blockquote>联邦基金利率呢？</blockquote> This conclusion runs so counter to what we’re been repeatedly told over the years that I wanted to double-check it by focusing on the Federal Funds rate. This is the short-term rate that is directly set by the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee, and some analysts over the years have believed that it is the interest rate to which stock market investors should pay closest attention. According to Edson Gould’s famous “three steps and a stumble rule,” for example, the stock market will decline (“stumble”) after three consecutive interest rate hikes (“three steps”) from the Federal Reserve.<blockquote>这个结论与我们多年来反复被告知的内容背道而驰，因此我想通过关注联邦基金利率来仔细检查它。这是由美联储公开市场委员会直接制定的短期利率，多年来一些分析师认为，这是股市投资者最应该密切关注的利率。例如，根据埃德森·古尔德著名的“三步一跌规则”，美联储连续三次加息（“三步”）后，股市就会下跌（“跌倒”）。</blockquote> Gould, of course, was one of the most famous technical analysts of the 1960s and 1970s. Nevertheless, however much validity his rule may have had in prior decades, it hasn’t worked since the early 1980s. That’s when the Federal Reserve shifted its policy-setting stance to targeting the Fed Funds rate; before hat it focused on M1 money supply. At the top of seven of the nine bull markets since then, the most recent change in the Fed Funds rate was a cut—not an increase.<blockquote>当然，古尔德是20世纪六七十年代最著名的技术分析师之一。然而，无论他的统治在前几十年有多大的有效性，自20世纪80年代初以来就没有奏效过。就在那时，美联储将其政策制定立场转向以联邦基金利率为目标；在此之前，它专注于M1货币供应。在此后九次牛市中的七次牛市中，联邦基金利率最近的变化是降息，而不是加息。</blockquote> I have no idea whether the current bull market is close to an end. But I would note that the most recent move in the Federal Funds rate was last March, when the Fed cut it by a full percentage point.<blockquote>我不知道当前的牛市是否已接近尾声。但我要指出的是，联邦基金利率最近一次变动是在去年3月，当时美联储将利率下调了整整一个百分点。</blockquote> The bottom line? Don’t look to interest rate trends for when the bull market will come to an end.<blockquote>底线？不要从利率走势来判断牛市何时结束。</blockquote> This doesn’t mean that happy days are here again, let me hasten to add. Just because rising interest rates are not the concern that many think them to be doesn’t mean there aren’t plenty of other worries. There most definitely are,with overvaluation at the top of the list.<blockquote>这并不意味着快乐的日子又来了，让我赶紧补充一下。仅仅因为利率上升并不像许多人认为的那样令人担忧，并不意味着没有很多其他担忧。肯定有，高估是最重要的。</blockquote>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What signals the top of a bull market in stocks? Not rising interest rates<blockquote>股票牛市顶部的信号是什么？利率不上升</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat signals the top of a bull market in stocks? Not rising interest rates<blockquote>股票牛市顶部的信号是什么？利率不上升</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-02-17 14:11\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nTreasury yields have risen sharply so far this year<blockquote>今年迄今为止，美国国债收益率大幅上升</blockquote> CHAPEL HILL, N.C. — Rising interest rates will not be what sabotage this bull market.<blockquote>北卡罗来纳州教堂山——利率上升不会破坏这次牛市。</blockquote> That’s crucial information, since interest rates have risen significantly over the last six months, and especially over the last couple of weeks. The 10-year Treasury yield&nbsp;has more than doubled from where it stood last August, for example, from 0.52% to its current 1.20%. A big chunk of that increase—27 basis points—have come just since the beginning of the year.<blockquote>这是至关重要的信息，因为利率在过去六个月，尤其是过去几周大幅上升。例如，10年期国债收益率较去年8月上涨了一倍多，从0.52%升至目前的1.20%。其中很大一部分（27个基点）是自今年年初以来才出现的。</blockquote> I am revisiting this topic since many readers apparently weren’t convinced by my&nbsp;column earlier this month that there is no historical correlation between interest rates and stock-market returns.As some of you pointed out, that column focused on summary patterns that emerge when analyzing all data back to the 1920s. That is different than focusing on interest-rate trends at bull-market tops in particular. That’s what I am focusing on in this column.<blockquote>我重新审视这个话题，因为许多读者显然不相信我本月早些时候的专栏，即利率和股市回报之间没有历史相关性。正如你们中的一些人指出的，该专栏关注的是分析20世纪20年代以来的所有数据时出现的摘要模式。这与特别关注牛市顶部的利率趋势不同。这就是我在本专栏中关注的内容。</blockquote> Since 1962, which is how far back my database for the 10-year Treasury yield extends, there have been 17 bear markets, according to the calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research. In 10 of those 17 cases, the 10-year Treasury yield when those bear market began was actuallylowerthan where it had stood three months prior. In other words, in more than half of the bear markets the 10-year yield had fallen over the last three months of the preceding bull markets.<blockquote>根据Ned Davis Research维护的日历，自1962年（我的10年期国债收益率数据库可以追溯到1962年）以来，已经经历了17次熊市。在这17个案例中的10个案例中，熊市开始时的10年期国债收益率实际上是降低而不是三个月前的水平。换句话说，在超过一半的熊市中，10年期国债收益率在之前牛市的最后三个月下跌。</blockquote> You shouldn’t conclude from this result that a bear market can’t happen unless interest rates are declining, however. Notice that in seven of these 17 bear markets, interest rates rose over the three months preceding the beginnings of those bear markets. The appropriate conclusion to draw is that interest-rate trends are an unreliable guide to when bull markets will come to an end.<blockquote>然而，你不应该从这个结果中得出结论，除非利率下降，否则熊市不会发生。请注意，在这17个熊市中，有7个熊市的利率在熊市开始前的三个月内上升。要得出的适当结论是，利率趋势并不是牛市何时结束的可靠指南。</blockquote> What about the Fed Funds rate?<blockquote>联邦基金利率呢？</blockquote> This conclusion runs so counter to what we’re been repeatedly told over the years that I wanted to double-check it by focusing on the Federal Funds rate. This is the short-term rate that is directly set by the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee, and some analysts over the years have believed that it is the interest rate to which stock market investors should pay closest attention. According to Edson Gould’s famous “three steps and a stumble rule,” for example, the stock market will decline (“stumble”) after three consecutive interest rate hikes (“three steps”) from the Federal Reserve.<blockquote>这个结论与我们多年来反复被告知的内容背道而驰，因此我想通过关注联邦基金利率来仔细检查它。这是由美联储公开市场委员会直接制定的短期利率，多年来一些分析师认为，这是股市投资者最应该密切关注的利率。例如，根据埃德森·古尔德著名的“三步一跌规则”，美联储连续三次加息（“三步”）后，股市就会下跌（“跌倒”）。</blockquote> Gould, of course, was one of the most famous technical analysts of the 1960s and 1970s. Nevertheless, however much validity his rule may have had in prior decades, it hasn’t worked since the early 1980s. That’s when the Federal Reserve shifted its policy-setting stance to targeting the Fed Funds rate; before hat it focused on M1 money supply. At the top of seven of the nine bull markets since then, the most recent change in the Fed Funds rate was a cut—not an increase.<blockquote>当然，古尔德是20世纪六七十年代最著名的技术分析师之一。然而，无论他的统治在前几十年有多大的有效性，自20世纪80年代初以来就没有奏效过。就在那时，美联储将其政策制定立场转向以联邦基金利率为目标；在此之前，它专注于M1货币供应。在此后九次牛市中的七次牛市中，联邦基金利率最近的变化是降息，而不是加息。</blockquote> I have no idea whether the current bull market is close to an end. But I would note that the most recent move in the Federal Funds rate was last March, when the Fed cut it by a full percentage point.<blockquote>我不知道当前的牛市是否已接近尾声。但我要指出的是，联邦基金利率最近一次变动是在去年3月，当时美联储将利率下调了整整一个百分点。</blockquote> The bottom line? Don’t look to interest rate trends for when the bull market will come to an end.<blockquote>底线？不要从利率走势来判断牛市何时结束。</blockquote> This doesn’t mean that happy days are here again, let me hasten to add. Just because rising interest rates are not the concern that many think them to be doesn’t mean there aren’t plenty of other worries. There most definitely are,with overvaluation at the top of the list.<blockquote>这并不意味着快乐的日子又来了，让我赶紧补充一下。仅仅因为利率上升并不像许多人认为的那样令人担忧，并不意味着没有很多其他担忧。肯定有，高估是最重要的。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-signals-the-top-of-a-bull-market-in-stocks-not-rising-interest-rates-11613490352?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-signals-the-top-of-a-bull-market-in-stocks-not-rising-interest-rates-11613490352?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1184726502","content_text":"Treasury yields have risen sharply so far this year\nCHAPEL HILL, N.C. — Rising interest rates will not be what sabotage this bull market.\nThat’s crucial information, since interest rates have risen significantly over the last six months, and especially over the last couple of weeks. The 10-year Treasury yield has more than doubled from where it stood last August, for example, from 0.52% to its current 1.20%. A big chunk of that increase—27 basis points—have come just since the beginning of the year.\nI am revisiting this topic since many readers apparently weren’t convinced by my column earlier this month that there is no historical correlation between interest rates and stock-market returns.As some of you pointed out, that column focused on summary patterns that emerge when analyzing all data back to the 1920s. That is different than focusing on interest-rate trends at bull-market tops in particular. That’s what I am focusing on in this column.\nSince 1962, which is how far back my database for the 10-year Treasury yield extends, there have been 17 bear markets, according to the calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research. In 10 of those 17 cases, the 10-year Treasury yield when those bear market began was actuallylowerthan where it had stood three months prior. In other words, in more than half of the bear markets the 10-year yield had fallen over the last three months of the preceding bull markets.\nYou shouldn’t conclude from this result that a bear market can’t happen unless interest rates are declining, however. Notice that in seven of these 17 bear markets, interest rates rose over the three months preceding the beginnings of those bear markets. The appropriate conclusion to draw is that interest-rate trends are an unreliable guide to when bull markets will come to an end.\nWhat about the Fed Funds rate?\nThis conclusion runs so counter to what we’re been repeatedly told over the years that I wanted to double-check it by focusing on the Federal Funds rate. This is the short-term rate that is directly set by the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee, and some analysts over the years have believed that it is the interest rate to which stock market investors should pay closest attention. According to Edson Gould’s famous “three steps and a stumble rule,” for example, the stock market will decline (“stumble”) after three consecutive interest rate hikes (“three steps”) from the Federal Reserve.\nGould, of course, was one of the most famous technical analysts of the 1960s and 1970s. Nevertheless, however much validity his rule may have had in prior decades, it hasn’t worked since the early 1980s. That’s when the Federal Reserve shifted its policy-setting stance to targeting the Fed Funds rate; before hat it focused on M1 money supply. At the top of seven of the nine bull markets since then, the most recent change in the Fed Funds rate was a cut—not an increase.\nI have no idea whether the current bull market is close to an end. But I would note that the most recent move in the Federal Funds rate was last March, when the Fed cut it by a full percentage point.\nThe bottom line? Don’t look to interest rate trends for when the bull market will come to an end.\nThis doesn’t mean that happy days are here again, let me hasten to add. Just because rising interest rates are not the concern that many think them to be doesn’t mean there aren’t plenty of other worries. There most definitely are,with overvaluation at the top of the list.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1420,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}