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2021-02-16

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Where the Real Stock Market Bubble Is<blockquote>真正的股市泡沫在哪里</blockquote>

It is likely that the S&P 500 Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals indexis in a bubble at risk

Where the Real Stock Market Bubble Is<blockquote>真正的股市泡沫在哪里</blockquote>

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In their study,“Bubbles for Fama,”published in the January 2019 issue of the Journal of Financial Economics, they analyzed U.S. stock market history back to 1926 in search of ways&nbsp;to forecast a bubble that was about to burst.<blockquote>这是我从哈佛大学三位研究人员的一项研究中得出的结论：罗宾·格林伍德(Robin Greenwood)，金融和银行学教授，担任该机构行为金融和金融稳定项目的主席；经济学教授安德烈·施莱弗；还有杨友，博士。候选人。在他们发表在《金融经济学杂志》2019年1月号上的研究“Fama的泡沫”中，他们分析了1926年以来的美国股市历史，以寻找预测即将破裂的泡沫的方法。</blockquote>Applying the formula the researchers derive, I calculate there is an 80% chance that the Technology Hardware, Storage &amp; Peripherals index will be 40% lower than today at some point in the next two years. Among some of the better-known firms in this industry are&nbsp;Apple(ticker: AAPL),Seagate Technology(STX), and&nbsp;Western Digital(WDC).<blockquote>应用研究人员得出的公式，我计算出在未来两年的某个时候，技术硬件、存储和外围设备指数有80%的可能性比现在低40%。该行业一些较知名的公司包括苹果（股票代码：AAPL）、希捷科技（STX）和西部数据（WDC）。</blockquote>Though no other industries satisfy the researchers’ definition of a bubble, two others come close. They are also in the technology arena: Semiconductors and Semiconductor Equipment, and Software.<blockquote>尽管没有其他行业符合研究人员对泡沫的定义，但另外两个行业接近泡沫。他们也在技术领域：半导体和半导体设备，以及软件。</blockquote>Why focus on an industry that may be in a bubble, rather than the market as a whole? Prof. Greenwood toldBarron’sthat he and his fellow researchers learned from their study of the history of bubbles that they “rarely are marketwide” events. Far more common, he said, is for a bubble to manifest in certain pockets of the market even as other sectors remain undervalued.<blockquote>为什么要关注一个可能存在泡沫的行业，而不是整个市场？格林伍德教授告诉巴伦周刊他和他的研究同事从对泡沫历史的研究中了解到，泡沫“很少是市场范围内的”事件。他说，更常见的是，即使其他行业仍然被低估，市场的某些部分也会出现泡沫。</blockquote>This was certainly the case at the top ofthe dot-com bubble, the mother of all bubbles. Greenwood reminds us that, even as dot-com stocks soared to outrageous valuations in the late 1990s and early 2000, other sectors of the market—notably value stocks—were either fairly valued or even undervalued. Some of those other sectors actually gained ground during the bear market that accompanied the bursting of the dot-com bubble stocks.<blockquote>在互联网泡沫（所有泡沫之母）的顶峰时期，情况确实如此。格林伍德提醒我们，尽管互联网股票在20世纪90年代末和2000年代初飙升至令人震惊的估值，但市场的其他板块——尤其是价值股——要么估值合理，甚至被低估。在伴随互联网泡沫股票破裂的熊市期间，其他一些行业实际上有所上涨。</blockquote>The researchers define a bubble to be any industry whose two-year return is at least 100 percentage points greater than the overall market’s. This is a high standard indeed—among all industries for which they had performance data between 1926 and 2016, just 40 satisfied the definition at any point over this 90-year period.<blockquote>研究人员将泡沫定义为任何两年回报率比整体市场至少高出100个百分点的行业。这确实是一个高标准——在1926年至2016年间拥有绩效数据的所有行业中，只有40个行业在这90年期间的任何时候都满足这一定义。</blockquote>Not all bubbles burst, of course, and those that do don’t always burst right away. The researchers imposed a strict precondition here as well: Once an industry satisfied their definition of a bubble, they considered it to have burst if, within the subsequent two years, it lost at least 40% of its value. Of the 40 industries that satisfied the researchers’ definition of a bubble, 21—or 53%—burst.<blockquote>当然，并不是所有的泡沫都会破裂，那些破裂的泡沫也不总是马上破裂。研究人员在这里也强加了一个严格的先决条件：一旦一个行业满足了他们对泡沫的定义，如果在随后的两年内，该行业至少损失了40%的价值，他们就认为该行业已经破裂。在满足研究人员泡沫定义的40个行业中，有21个（即53%）破裂。</blockquote>What this means, assuming the future is like the past: There’s a slightly better than one out of two chance that any industry that outperforms the market by 100 percentage points in any two-year period will lose 40% or more over the subsequent two years.<blockquote>这意味着，假设未来和过去一样：任何在任何两年内跑赢市场100个百分点的行业在接下来的两年里损失40%或更多的可能性略高于二分之一。</blockquote>The researchers also studied how the probabilities of a crash changed when they tightened or loosened their definition of a bubble. When they set the criterion to be just 50 percentage points ahead of the market, instead of 100, the odds of a crash fell to just 20%. When they tightened the criterion to 150 percentage points, the probabilities of a crash rose to 80%.<blockquote>研究人员还研究了当他们收紧或放松对泡沫的定义时，崩盘的概率是如何变化的。当他们将标准设定为仅领先市场50个百分点而不是100个百分点时，崩盘的几率降至仅20%。当他们将标准收紧到150个百分点时，崩溃的概率上升到了80%。</blockquote>This latter probability is what applies to the Technology Hardware, Storage &amp; Peripherals index. Over the past two years, according to FactSet, it has outperformed the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;by 151 percentage points.<blockquote>后一种概率适用于技术硬件、存储和外围设备指数。根据FactSet的数据，过去两年，它的表现优于标准普尔500指数151个百分点。</blockquote>One is tempted to apply the professors’ formula to individual securities, as I myself have done in the past. In November 2017, for example, I used the formula to argue thatthe odds of Bitcoin crashingwere greater than 80%. It lost 67% over the next 12 months. I used the professors’ formulaonce again in February 2020to argue that the odds of&nbsp;Tesla(TSLA) crashing were 80%. The stock lost 59% over the next six weeks.<blockquote>人们很容易将教授们的公式应用于个别证券，就像我自己过去所做的那样。例如，2017年11月，我用这个公式论证了比特币撞车的几率大于80%。在接下来的12个月里，它下跌了67%。2020年2月，我再次使用教授们的公式来论证特斯拉(TSLA)崩溃的几率为80%。该股在接下来的六周内下跌了59%。</blockquote>Since then, of course,TeslaandBitcoin have skyrocketed, as have any of a number of other highflying assets. Should I once again forecast that there is a high probability of their crashing, I asked Greenwood? He demurred, stressing that further research is needed into the various factors that affect the odds of an individual stock crashing.<blockquote>当然，从那时起，特斯拉和比特币就像许多其他飞涨的资产一样飙升。我问格林伍德，我是否应该再次预测他们崩溃的可能性很高？他表示反对，强调需要进一步研究影响个股崩盘几率的各种因素。</blockquote>Yet he added he believes that not only is the broad stock market overvalued, there are individual pockets of the market that are “incredibly frothy and bubbly.”<blockquote>然而，他补充说，他认为不仅整个股市被高估，而且市场中的个别部分也“存在令人难以置信的泡沫”。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Where the Real Stock Market Bubble Is<blockquote>真正的股市泡沫在哪里</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhere the Real Stock Market Bubble Is<blockquote>真正的股市泡沫在哪里</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarrons2021-02-16 09:55\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nIt is likely that the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500 Technology Hardware, Storage &amp; Peripherals indexis in a bubble at risk of bursting.<blockquote>标准普尔500科技硬件、存储和外围设备指数很可能陷入泡沫，面临破裂的风险。</blockquote>That’s the conclusion I draw from a study by three Harvard University researchers: Robin Greenwood, a finance and banking professor who chairs the institution’s Behavioral Finance and Financial Stability project; Andrei Shleifer, an economics professor; and Yang You, a Ph.D. candidate. In their study,“Bubbles for Fama,”published in the January 2019 issue of the Journal of Financial Economics, they analyzed U.S. stock market history back to 1926 in search of ways&nbsp;to forecast a bubble that was about to burst.<blockquote>这是我从哈佛大学三位研究人员的一项研究中得出的结论：罗宾·格林伍德(Robin Greenwood)，金融和银行学教授，担任该机构行为金融和金融稳定项目的主席；经济学教授安德烈·施莱弗；还有杨友，博士。候选人。在他们发表在《金融经济学杂志》2019年1月号上的研究“Fama的泡沫”中，他们分析了1926年以来的美国股市历史，以寻找预测即将破裂的泡沫的方法。</blockquote>Applying the formula the researchers derive, I calculate there is an 80% chance that the Technology Hardware, Storage &amp; Peripherals index will be 40% lower than today at some point in the next two years. Among some of the better-known firms in this industry are&nbsp;Apple(ticker: AAPL),Seagate Technology(STX), and&nbsp;Western Digital(WDC).<blockquote>应用研究人员得出的公式，我计算出在未来两年的某个时候，技术硬件、存储和外围设备指数有80%的可能性比现在低40%。该行业一些较知名的公司包括苹果（股票代码：AAPL）、希捷科技（STX）和西部数据（WDC）。</blockquote>Though no other industries satisfy the researchers’ definition of a bubble, two others come close. They are also in the technology arena: Semiconductors and Semiconductor Equipment, and Software.<blockquote>尽管没有其他行业符合研究人员对泡沫的定义，但另外两个行业接近泡沫。他们也在技术领域：半导体和半导体设备，以及软件。</blockquote>Why focus on an industry that may be in a bubble, rather than the market as a whole? Prof. Greenwood toldBarron’sthat he and his fellow researchers learned from their study of the history of bubbles that they “rarely are marketwide” events. Far more common, he said, is for a bubble to manifest in certain pockets of the market even as other sectors remain undervalued.<blockquote>为什么要关注一个可能存在泡沫的行业，而不是整个市场？格林伍德教授告诉巴伦周刊他和他的研究同事从对泡沫历史的研究中了解到，泡沫“很少是市场范围内的”事件。他说，更常见的是，即使其他行业仍然被低估，市场的某些部分也会出现泡沫。</blockquote>This was certainly the case at the top ofthe dot-com bubble, the mother of all bubbles. Greenwood reminds us that, even as dot-com stocks soared to outrageous valuations in the late 1990s and early 2000, other sectors of the market—notably value stocks—were either fairly valued or even undervalued. Some of those other sectors actually gained ground during the bear market that accompanied the bursting of the dot-com bubble stocks.<blockquote>在互联网泡沫（所有泡沫之母）的顶峰时期，情况确实如此。格林伍德提醒我们，尽管互联网股票在20世纪90年代末和2000年代初飙升至令人震惊的估值，但市场的其他板块——尤其是价值股——要么估值合理，甚至被低估。在伴随互联网泡沫股票破裂的熊市期间，其他一些行业实际上有所上涨。</blockquote>The researchers define a bubble to be any industry whose two-year return is at least 100 percentage points greater than the overall market’s. This is a high standard indeed—among all industries for which they had performance data between 1926 and 2016, just 40 satisfied the definition at any point over this 90-year period.<blockquote>研究人员将泡沫定义为任何两年回报率比整体市场至少高出100个百分点的行业。这确实是一个高标准——在1926年至2016年间拥有绩效数据的所有行业中，只有40个行业在这90年期间的任何时候都满足这一定义。</blockquote>Not all bubbles burst, of course, and those that do don’t always burst right away. The researchers imposed a strict precondition here as well: Once an industry satisfied their definition of a bubble, they considered it to have burst if, within the subsequent two years, it lost at least 40% of its value. Of the 40 industries that satisfied the researchers’ definition of a bubble, 21—or 53%—burst.<blockquote>当然，并不是所有的泡沫都会破裂，那些破裂的泡沫也不总是马上破裂。研究人员在这里也强加了一个严格的先决条件：一旦一个行业满足了他们对泡沫的定义，如果在随后的两年内，该行业至少损失了40%的价值，他们就认为该行业已经破裂。在满足研究人员泡沫定义的40个行业中，有21个（即53%）破裂。</blockquote>What this means, assuming the future is like the past: There’s a slightly better than one out of two chance that any industry that outperforms the market by 100 percentage points in any two-year period will lose 40% or more over the subsequent two years.<blockquote>这意味着，假设未来和过去一样：任何在任何两年内跑赢市场100个百分点的行业在接下来的两年里损失40%或更多的可能性略高于二分之一。</blockquote>The researchers also studied how the probabilities of a crash changed when they tightened or loosened their definition of a bubble. When they set the criterion to be just 50 percentage points ahead of the market, instead of 100, the odds of a crash fell to just 20%. When they tightened the criterion to 150 percentage points, the probabilities of a crash rose to 80%.<blockquote>研究人员还研究了当他们收紧或放松对泡沫的定义时，崩盘的概率是如何变化的。当他们将标准设定为仅领先市场50个百分点而不是100个百分点时，崩盘的几率降至仅20%。当他们将标准收紧到150个百分点时，崩溃的概率上升到了80%。</blockquote>This latter probability is what applies to the Technology Hardware, Storage &amp; Peripherals index. Over the past two years, according to FactSet, it has outperformed the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;by 151 percentage points.<blockquote>后一种概率适用于技术硬件、存储和外围设备指数。根据FactSet的数据，过去两年，它的表现优于标准普尔500指数151个百分点。</blockquote>One is tempted to apply the professors’ formula to individual securities, as I myself have done in the past. In November 2017, for example, I used the formula to argue thatthe odds of Bitcoin crashingwere greater than 80%. It lost 67% over the next 12 months. I used the professors’ formulaonce again in February 2020to argue that the odds of&nbsp;Tesla(TSLA) crashing were 80%. The stock lost 59% over the next six weeks.<blockquote>人们很容易将教授们的公式应用于个别证券，就像我自己过去所做的那样。例如，2017年11月，我用这个公式论证了比特币撞车的几率大于80%。在接下来的12个月里，它下跌了67%。2020年2月，我再次使用教授们的公式来论证特斯拉(TSLA)崩溃的几率为80%。该股在接下来的六周内下跌了59%。</blockquote>Since then, of course,TeslaandBitcoin have skyrocketed, as have any of a number of other highflying assets. Should I once again forecast that there is a high probability of their crashing, I asked Greenwood? He demurred, stressing that further research is needed into the various factors that affect the odds of an individual stock crashing.<blockquote>当然，从那时起，特斯拉和比特币就像许多其他飞涨的资产一样飙升。我问格林伍德，我是否应该再次预测他们崩溃的可能性很高？他表示反对，强调需要进一步研究影响个股崩盘几率的各种因素。</blockquote>Yet he added he believes that not only is the broad stock market overvalued, there are individual pockets of the market that are “incredibly frothy and bubbly.”<blockquote>然而，他补充说，他认为不仅整个股市被高估，而且市场中的个别部分也“存在令人难以置信的泡沫”。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/this-is-where-the-real-stock-market-bubble-is-51613388601?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Barrons</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"WDC":"西部数据",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","AAPL":"苹果",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","STX":"希捷科技",".DJI":"道琼斯","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/this-is-where-the-real-stock-market-bubble-is-51613388601?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185344045","content_text":"It is likely that the S&P 500 Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals indexis in a bubble at risk of bursting.That’s the conclusion I draw from a study by three Harvard University researchers: Robin Greenwood, a finance and banking professor who chairs the institution’s Behavioral Finance and Financial Stability project; Andrei Shleifer, an economics professor; and Yang You, a Ph.D. candidate. In their study,“Bubbles for Fama,”published in the January 2019 issue of the Journal of Financial Economics, they analyzed U.S. stock market history back to 1926 in search of ways to forecast a bubble that was about to burst.Applying the formula the researchers derive, I calculate there is an 80% chance that the Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals index will be 40% lower than today at some point in the next two years. Among some of the better-known firms in this industry are Apple(ticker: AAPL),Seagate Technology(STX), and Western Digital(WDC).Though no other industries satisfy the researchers’ definition of a bubble, two others come close. They are also in the technology arena: Semiconductors and Semiconductor Equipment, and Software.Why focus on an industry that may be in a bubble, rather than the market as a whole? Prof. Greenwood toldBarron’sthat he and his fellow researchers learned from their study of the history of bubbles that they “rarely are marketwide” events. Far more common, he said, is for a bubble to manifest in certain pockets of the market even as other sectors remain undervalued.This was certainly the case at the top ofthe dot-com bubble, the mother of all bubbles. Greenwood reminds us that, even as dot-com stocks soared to outrageous valuations in the late 1990s and early 2000, other sectors of the market—notably value stocks—were either fairly valued or even undervalued. Some of those other sectors actually gained ground during the bear market that accompanied the bursting of the dot-com bubble stocks.The researchers define a bubble to be any industry whose two-year return is at least 100 percentage points greater than the overall market’s. This is a high standard indeed—among all industries for which they had performance data between 1926 and 2016, just 40 satisfied the definition at any point over this 90-year period.Not all bubbles burst, of course, and those that do don’t always burst right away. The researchers imposed a strict precondition here as well: Once an industry satisfied their definition of a bubble, they considered it to have burst if, within the subsequent two years, it lost at least 40% of its value. Of the 40 industries that satisfied the researchers’ definition of a bubble, 21—or 53%—burst.What this means, assuming the future is like the past: There’s a slightly better than one out of two chance that any industry that outperforms the market by 100 percentage points in any two-year period will lose 40% or more over the subsequent two years.The researchers also studied how the probabilities of a crash changed when they tightened or loosened their definition of a bubble. When they set the criterion to be just 50 percentage points ahead of the market, instead of 100, the odds of a crash fell to just 20%. When they tightened the criterion to 150 percentage points, the probabilities of a crash rose to 80%.This latter probability is what applies to the Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals index. Over the past two years, according to FactSet, it has outperformed the S&P 500 by 151 percentage points.One is tempted to apply the professors’ formula to individual securities, as I myself have done in the past. In November 2017, for example, I used the formula to argue thatthe odds of Bitcoin crashingwere greater than 80%. It lost 67% over the next 12 months. I used the professors’ formulaonce again in February 2020to argue that the odds of Tesla(TSLA) crashing were 80%. The stock lost 59% over the next six weeks.Since then, of course,TeslaandBitcoin have skyrocketed, as have any of a number of other highflying assets. Should I once again forecast that there is a high probability of their crashing, I asked Greenwood? He demurred, stressing that further research is needed into the various factors that affect the odds of an individual stock crashing.Yet he added he believes that not only is the broad stock market overvalued, there are individual pockets of the market that are “incredibly frothy and bubbly.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"WDC":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,"STX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1717,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":8,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}