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2021-03-10

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Technically Speaking: The Bull Market Is On Shaky Ground<blockquote>从技术上讲：牛市摇摇欲坠</blockquote>

Last week’s sell-off left the “bull market” on shaky ground. The big question for investors at the m

Technically Speaking: The Bull Market Is On Shaky Ground<blockquote>从技术上讲：牛市摇摇欲坠</blockquote>

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

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From excessive levels of call-option buying by small traders to chasing the most shorted stocks in the market. As I noted just recently in“No One Is Bearish:”<blockquote>几乎没有争论“欣快”最近在市场上并不明显。从小交易者过度购买看涨期权期权到追逐市场上做空最多的股票。正如我最近在“没有人看跌：”</blockquote> <ul> <li>Fund managers’ allocation to cash is down to 3.8%, the lowest since March 2013.Such was&nbsp;just before the “taper tantrum” era under former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d1c7e74281f4546a4a5a28a35a9bfe9\" tg-width=\"1580\" tg-height=\"986\"><blockquote><ul><li>基金经理的现金配置降至3.8%，为2013年3月以来的最低水平。这就发生在美联储前主席本·伯南克领导下的“缩减恐慌”时代之前。</li></ul></blockquote> <ul> <li>Allocations to stocks and commodities are the highest since February 2011.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73520f72bf0f824be59d828e1d91a970\" tg-width=\"1568\" tg-height=\"952\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0824f55194b685250180b436732c5fca\" tg-width=\"1578\" tg-height=\"894\"><blockquote><ul><li>对股票和大宗商品的配置是2011年2月以来的最高水平。</li></ul></blockquote> The point here, of course, is that when everyone is“in the pool,”it doesn’t take much to create a reversion.<blockquote>当然，这里的重点是当每个人都“在水池里。”创建一个反转并不需要太多。</blockquote> The Value Trade Is No Longer A Value<blockquote>价值贸易不再是价值</blockquote> Such is what we begin to see last week, as the previous favorite“momentum”trades were swapped in a massive rotation to“value.”Given the massively overbought extremes in the“value”plays, that rotation is likely going to be akin to“jumping from the frying pan into the fire.”<blockquote>这就是我们上周开始看到的，作为以前的最爱“动量”交易在大规模轮换中交换到“价值。”鉴于市场的大规模超买极端情况“价值”这种轮换很可能类似于“从煎锅里跳到火里。”</blockquote> Small-cap value is more extended currently than at any point over the last 20-years using weekly data. With the index well into 3-standard deviation territory, extremely deviated from long-term means, and grossly overvalued, the eventual reversion will be brutal.<blockquote>根据每周数据，目前小盘股的价值比过去20年中的任何时候都要延伸。随着该指数进入3个标准差区域，极度偏离长期均值，并且被严重高估，最终的逆转将是残酷的。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f709556dbcea03c76994a7ca372d3332\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"1007\"><blockquote></blockquote> The same is seen in the weekly chart of the Russell 2000 index which picks up the Mid-cap exposure as well. With valuations in these stocks well ahead of even the most optimistic economic outlook, the risk of disappointment is high.<blockquote>同样的情况也可以在罗素2000指数的周线图中看到，该指数也增加了中型股的敞口。由于这些股票的估值甚至远远领先于最乐观的经济前景，因此失望的风险很高。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f430da155d24c0362cd169ee99e5dfb\" tg-width=\"986\" tg-height=\"1010\"><blockquote></blockquote> The poster child for the economic reopening and value rotation trade has been energy. Like small-cap value and the Russell 2000, energy is also exceedingly extended, overbought, and deviated from long-term means. At every similar point in history, the reversion was brutal.<blockquote>经济重新开放和价值轮换贸易的典型代表是能源。与小盘价值和罗素2000指数一样，能源也过度扩张、超买并偏离长期均值。在历史上的每一个类似时刻，这种逆转都是残酷的。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cab83024ef39099cb1d9852cccb58201\" tg-width=\"988\" tg-height=\"1009\"><blockquote></blockquote> This time is unlikely to be different.<blockquote>这一次不太可能有所不同。</blockquote> Intermediate Indicators Worrisome<blockquote>中间指标令人担忧</blockquote> Our intermediate-term indicators,&nbsp;(which utilizes weekly data), continue to paint a more concerning picture. Turn your&nbsp;focus to the middle panel of“money flows.”&nbsp;Despite the&nbsp;“seeming”&nbsp;exuberance of the market over the last few months, money flows have continued to weaken.<blockquote>我们的中期指标，（利用每周数据），继续描绘一幅更令人担忧的画面。将您的注意力转向的中间面板“资金流动。”尽管“似乎”市场繁荣过去几个月，资金流持续减弱。</blockquote> In early November, we recommended increasing equity exposure to portfolios as the&nbsp;“buy signal”was triggered. However, beginning in February, that signal reversed leading to continued downward price pressures.<blockquote>11月初，我们建议增加投资组合的股票敞口，作为“买入信号”被触发了。然而，从二月份开始，这一信号逆转，导致价格持续下行压力。</blockquote> While the market could indeed bounce in the short-term, the decline in&nbsp;“money flows,”&nbsp;and the convergence of&nbsp;“sell signals,”&nbsp;does increase our concern of a bigger decline over the next month or so.<blockquote>虽然市场确实可能在短期内反弹，但“资金流动。”以及收敛性“卖出信号。”确实增加了我们对未来一个月左右出现更大跌幅的担忧。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84fe9f1e9350c3c7a0883b8fd519d2fc\" tg-width=\"1085\" tg-height=\"823\"><blockquote></blockquote> The problem with the indicator is that it does not distinguish between declines. The“sell signal”in September and October of 2020 coincided with two 10% declines. The signal in March was a 35% crash over a 3-week period.<blockquote>该指标的问题在于它不区分下跌。The“卖出信号”2020年9月和10月恰逢两次10%的下降。3月份的信号是3周内暴跌35%。</blockquote> There is certainly a risk of a larger decline given the confirming MACD sell signal in the lower panel. I suspect in the near-term declines will still be met with buyers as the“momentum”chase remains.However, the risk of a deeper correction is certainly possible if something&nbsp;“spooks”the market, so risk management remains key.<blockquote>鉴于下图中确认的MACD卖出信号，肯定存在更大下跌的风险。我怀疑短期内仍会遇到买家的下跌“动量”蔡斯还在。然而，如果出现某些情况，则肯定有可能出现更深调整的风险“幽灵”市场，因此风险管理仍然是关键。</blockquote> Longer-Term Concerns<blockquote>长期关注</blockquote> One of the more concerning charts we have been monitoring for some time is the monthly expanding price pattern. Once again, the market has struggled with the top of the expanding pattern as relative strength continues to deteriorate. With the markets extremely extended on a monthly basis, as denoted by the red arrows, such periods have had less positive outcomes for investors.<blockquote>一段时间以来，我们一直在监测的更令人担忧的图表之一是月度价格扩张模式。随着相对强度继续恶化，市场再次在扩张模式的顶部挣扎。正如红色箭头所示，由于市场每月都在极度扩张，这种时期对投资者来说没有那么积极的结果。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8310d022a3d86ce471faf40b4562a753\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"928\"><blockquote></blockquote> Monthly price charts are&nbsp; NOT TO BE USED &nbsp;for trading portfolios. &nbsp;Indications are only valid at the end of the month, and they are slow to turn. Due to the lag, most short-term focused investors make assumptions the indications are&nbsp;“wrong”&nbsp;this time.&nbsp; However, history tends to prove that extreme market extensions rarely resolve themselves to the upside.<blockquote>每月价格图表为不得使用用于交易投资组合。适应症月底才有效，转得慢。由于滞后性，大多数关注短期的投资者都会假设迹象是“错了”这一次。然而，历史往往证明，极端的市场延伸很少会向上解决。</blockquote> Of course, what causes the eventual&nbsp;“reversion”&nbsp;is always an unexpected, exogenous event when sends investors scrambling for exits where there are few buyers.<blockquote>当然，是什么导致了最终“逆转”当投资者在买家很少的地方争先恐后地退出时，总是一个意想不到的外生事件。</blockquote> Managing Past The Noise<blockquote>克服噪音</blockquote> There are many arguments for both bulls and bears. On the bullish side, the passage of another stimulus bill will provide a short-term“sugar rush” in the markets and economy.<blockquote>多头和空头都有很多争论。利多方面，另一项刺激法案的通过将为短期市场和经济中的“糖业热潮”。</blockquote> On the bearish side, everything from extreme exuberance to over valuation poses a longer-term threat. As noted by SentimenTrader over the weekend:<blockquote>从看跌的角度来看，从极度繁荣到估值过高，一切都构成了长期威胁。正如SentimenTrader周末指出的那样：</blockquote> “Yesterday was the biggest split in almost 40 years. There were so many stocks hitting 52-week highs AND 52-week lows on both the NYSE andNasdaqthat it registered the 2nd most extreme reading since 1984. Split markets have a strong tendency to be ‘not bullish.'” <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d471873a9bdc6304f914500d00fed2ee\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"438\"><blockquote>“昨天是近40年来最大的分裂。纽约证券交易所和纳斯达克都有如此多的股票触及52周高点和52周低点，以至于创下了自1984年以来第二极端的读数。分裂的市场有很强的‘不看涨’倾向。”</blockquote> Whether you are bullish or bearish there is an argument to fit your agenda.<blockquote>无论你是看涨还是看跌，都有适合你议程的论点。</blockquote> Therein Lies The Rub<blockquote>这就是问题所在</blockquote> YOUR personal bias&nbsp;may be leading you astray as&nbsp;“cognitive biases”&nbsp;impair investor returns over time.<blockquote>你的个人偏见可能会把你引入歧途 “认知偏差”随着时间的推移损害投资者的回报。</blockquote> “Confirmation bias, also called&nbsp; my side &nbsp; bias , is the tendency to search for, interpret, and remember information in a way that confirms one’s preconceptions or working hypotheses. It is a systematic error of inductive reasoning.” Therefore, it is important to consider&nbsp;both sides&nbsp;of the current debate in order to make logical, rather than emotional, decisions about current portfolio allocations and risk management.<blockquote>“确认偏差，也称为我这边 偏见是以证实一个人的先入之见或工作假设的方式搜索、解释和记忆信息的倾向。这是归纳推理的系统性错误。”因此，考虑双方为了对当前的投资组合分配和风险管理做出合乎逻辑的而不是情绪化的决定。</blockquote> Currently, the&nbsp;“bulls”&nbsp;are still in control of the market. The long-term running bull trend remains intact…for now.The chart below is a MONTHLY chart of the S&amp;P 500. Importantly, the bullish trend that began in 2009 remains intact. A correction back to that trendline would encompass a nearly 30% decline from last week’s close.<blockquote>目前，“公牛”仍然控制着市场。目前，长期牛市趋势仍然完好无损。下图是标普500的月线图。重要的是，始于2009年的看涨趋势仍然完好无损。回调至该趋势线将较上周收盘价下跌近30%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d224c846fa83d3e58890ac5eedf2155e\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"673\"><blockquote></blockquote> However, the real question is the sustainability of the market at current levels given the rather extreme deviation from long-term means.<blockquote>然而，真正的问题是，鉴于与长期手段的相当极端的背离，市场在当前水平上的可持续性。</blockquote> For those of you who like analogs, the most comparable period historically is the 1998-1999 market“melt-up.”During that period, the market bounced off support and then began a 60%“melt-up”to the final peak in 2000. Currently, from the March lows, the S&amp;P has risen by nearly 60%. In both cases, the negative divergence in relative strength combined with grossly extended markets did not work out well.<blockquote>对于那些喜欢类比的人来说，历史上最具可比性的时期是1998-1999年的市场“融化。”在此期间，市场从支撑反弹，然后开始了60%的“融化”到2000年的最后高峰。目前，从3月份的低点来看，标普已经上涨了近60%。在这两种情况下，相对实力的负背离加上市场的大幅扩张，结果都不太好。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0817ed8ab27aa3d7f3b036fc5dc09b14\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"673\"><blockquote></blockquote> Continue To Focus On Risk Controls<blockquote>持续关注风险控制</blockquote> The big question right now is whether the correction that began a couple of weeks ago is over?<blockquote>现在最大的问题是，几周前开始的调整是否已经结束？</blockquote> I would not be surprised to see a reasonable bounce in the market given the passage of the stimulus, and short-term oversold conditions. Such certainly continues to support the“economic recovery”story. Unfortunately, once the stimulus runs through the system, the markets will again face economic realities.<blockquote>鉴于刺激措施的通过和短期超卖状况，我不会对市场出现合理反弹感到惊讶。这肯定会继续支持“经济复苏”故事。不幸的是，一旦刺激措施贯穿整个体系，市场将再次面临经济现实。</blockquote> For all of these reasons, we continue to hold slightly higher levels of cash and continue to focus on basic risk management controls. As such, over the next couple of weeks we will likely:<blockquote>出于所有这些原因，我们继续持有略高水平的现金，并继续专注于基本的风险管理控制。因此，在接下来的几周内，我们可能会：</blockquote> <ol> <li>Sell positions that simply are not working.If they were not working in the strongly rising market and failed to hold support during the decline, acknowledge your thesis is wrong.Investment Rule:&nbsp;Cut losers short.</li> <li>Trim winning positions back to original portfolio weightings.&nbsp;This allows you to harvest profits but remain invested in positions that are working.&nbsp;Investment Rule:&nbsp;Let winners run.</li> <li>Retain cash raised from sales&nbsp;for opportunities&nbsp;to purchase investments later at a better price.&nbsp;Investment Rule:&nbsp;Sell High, Buy Low</li> </ol> While&nbsp;“bearish”&nbsp;concerns are often dismissed when markets are rising, it does not mean they aren’t valid.Unfortunately, by the time the&nbsp;“herd”is alerted to a shift in overall sentiment, the stampede for the exits will already be well underway.<blockquote><ol><li>卖出根本不起作用的头寸。如果他们在强劲上涨的市场中不起作用，并且在下跌期间未能保持支撑，那么承认你的论点是错误的。投资法则：做空输家。</li><li>将获胜头寸削减至原始投资组合权重。这可以让你获得利润，但仍投资于有效的头寸。投资法则：让赢家跑。</li><li>保留销售筹集的现金 为了机会以后以更好的价格购买投资。投资法则：高抛低吸</li></ol>而“看跌”当市场上涨时，担忧往往会被忽视，但这并不意味着它们无效。不幸的是，当“牛群”如果注意到整体情绪的转变，退出的热潮将已经开始。</blockquote> Is the current bull market dead?&nbsp;I don’t know, and trying to predict the market is quite pointless.&nbsp;The risk for investors is the&nbsp;“willful blindness of change”until it is far too late to matter.&nbsp;Just remember, no one thought the“bull market was dead”in 1999 and 2007 either.<blockquote>当前牛市已死？我不知道，试图预测市场是毫无意义的。投资者面临的风险是“对变化的故意视而不见”直到为时已晚，无关紧要。请记住，没有人认为“牛市已死”1999年和2007年也是如此。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603271479234","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTechnically Speaking: The Bull Market Is On Shaky Ground<blockquote>从技术上讲：牛市摇摇欲坠</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nReal Investment Advice2021-03-10 19:33\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nLast week’s sell-off left the “bull market” on shaky ground.<blockquote>上周的抛售让“牛市”摇摇欲坠。</blockquote> The big question for investors at the moment is whether the&nbsp;11-year old bull market&nbsp;is ending or is this just a“pause that refreshes?”<blockquote>目前投资者面临的一个大问题是11年牛市是结束还是这只是一个“暂停刷新？”</blockquote> While the optimistic“hope”is that this is just a pause within a continuing“bull market”advance, from a money management standpoint getting the answer“right”is vastly more important to long-term investing outcomes.<blockquote>而乐观的“希望”这只是一个持续的停顿“牛市”提前，从资金管理的角度获得答案“对”对长期投资结果更为重要。</blockquote> The easiest way to approach this analysis is to start with the following basic premise:<blockquote>进行这种分析最简单的方法是从以下基本前提开始：</blockquote> “Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, and die on euphoria.” -Sir John Templeton Euphoria Has Been Evident<blockquote>“牛市因悲观而生，因怀疑而成长，因兴奋而消亡。”——约翰·邓普顿爵士欣快是显而易见的</blockquote> There is little argument that“euphoria”has not been evident in the market recently. From excessive levels of call-option buying by small traders to chasing the most shorted stocks in the market. As I noted just recently in“No One Is Bearish:”<blockquote>几乎没有争论“欣快”最近在市场上并不明显。从小交易者过度购买看涨期权期权到追逐市场上做空最多的股票。正如我最近在“没有人看跌：”</blockquote> <ul> <li>Fund managers’ allocation to cash is down to 3.8%, the lowest since March 2013.Such was&nbsp;just before the “taper tantrum” era under former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d1c7e74281f4546a4a5a28a35a9bfe9\" tg-width=\"1580\" tg-height=\"986\"><blockquote><ul><li>基金经理的现金配置降至3.8%，为2013年3月以来的最低水平。这就发生在美联储前主席本·伯南克领导下的“缩减恐慌”时代之前。</li></ul></blockquote> <ul> <li>Allocations to stocks and commodities are the highest since February 2011.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73520f72bf0f824be59d828e1d91a970\" tg-width=\"1568\" tg-height=\"952\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0824f55194b685250180b436732c5fca\" tg-width=\"1578\" tg-height=\"894\"><blockquote><ul><li>对股票和大宗商品的配置是2011年2月以来的最高水平。</li></ul></blockquote> The point here, of course, is that when everyone is“in the pool,”it doesn’t take much to create a reversion.<blockquote>当然，这里的重点是当每个人都“在水池里。”创建一个反转并不需要太多。</blockquote> The Value Trade Is No Longer A Value<blockquote>价值贸易不再是价值</blockquote> Such is what we begin to see last week, as the previous favorite“momentum”trades were swapped in a massive rotation to“value.”Given the massively overbought extremes in the“value”plays, that rotation is likely going to be akin to“jumping from the frying pan into the fire.”<blockquote>这就是我们上周开始看到的，作为以前的最爱“动量”交易在大规模轮换中交换到“价值。”鉴于市场的大规模超买极端情况“价值”这种轮换很可能类似于“从煎锅里跳到火里。”</blockquote> Small-cap value is more extended currently than at any point over the last 20-years using weekly data. With the index well into 3-standard deviation territory, extremely deviated from long-term means, and grossly overvalued, the eventual reversion will be brutal.<blockquote>根据每周数据，目前小盘股的价值比过去20年中的任何时候都要延伸。随着该指数进入3个标准差区域，极度偏离长期均值，并且被严重高估，最终的逆转将是残酷的。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f709556dbcea03c76994a7ca372d3332\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"1007\"><blockquote></blockquote> The same is seen in the weekly chart of the Russell 2000 index which picks up the Mid-cap exposure as well. With valuations in these stocks well ahead of even the most optimistic economic outlook, the risk of disappointment is high.<blockquote>同样的情况也可以在罗素2000指数的周线图中看到，该指数也增加了中型股的敞口。由于这些股票的估值甚至远远领先于最乐观的经济前景，因此失望的风险很高。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f430da155d24c0362cd169ee99e5dfb\" tg-width=\"986\" tg-height=\"1010\"><blockquote></blockquote> The poster child for the economic reopening and value rotation trade has been energy. Like small-cap value and the Russell 2000, energy is also exceedingly extended, overbought, and deviated from long-term means. At every similar point in history, the reversion was brutal.<blockquote>经济重新开放和价值轮换贸易的典型代表是能源。与小盘价值和罗素2000指数一样，能源也过度扩张、超买并偏离长期均值。在历史上的每一个类似时刻，这种逆转都是残酷的。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cab83024ef39099cb1d9852cccb58201\" tg-width=\"988\" tg-height=\"1009\"><blockquote></blockquote> This time is unlikely to be different.<blockquote>这一次不太可能有所不同。</blockquote> Intermediate Indicators Worrisome<blockquote>中间指标令人担忧</blockquote> Our intermediate-term indicators,&nbsp;(which utilizes weekly data), continue to paint a more concerning picture. Turn your&nbsp;focus to the middle panel of“money flows.”&nbsp;Despite the&nbsp;“seeming”&nbsp;exuberance of the market over the last few months, money flows have continued to weaken.<blockquote>我们的中期指标，（利用每周数据），继续描绘一幅更令人担忧的画面。将您的注意力转向的中间面板“资金流动。”尽管“似乎”市场繁荣过去几个月，资金流持续减弱。</blockquote> In early November, we recommended increasing equity exposure to portfolios as the&nbsp;“buy signal”was triggered. However, beginning in February, that signal reversed leading to continued downward price pressures.<blockquote>11月初，我们建议增加投资组合的股票敞口，作为“买入信号”被触发了。然而，从二月份开始，这一信号逆转，导致价格持续下行压力。</blockquote> While the market could indeed bounce in the short-term, the decline in&nbsp;“money flows,”&nbsp;and the convergence of&nbsp;“sell signals,”&nbsp;does increase our concern of a bigger decline over the next month or so.<blockquote>虽然市场确实可能在短期内反弹，但“资金流动。”以及收敛性“卖出信号。”确实增加了我们对未来一个月左右出现更大跌幅的担忧。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84fe9f1e9350c3c7a0883b8fd519d2fc\" tg-width=\"1085\" tg-height=\"823\"><blockquote></blockquote> The problem with the indicator is that it does not distinguish between declines. The“sell signal”in September and October of 2020 coincided with two 10% declines. The signal in March was a 35% crash over a 3-week period.<blockquote>该指标的问题在于它不区分下跌。The“卖出信号”2020年9月和10月恰逢两次10%的下降。3月份的信号是3周内暴跌35%。</blockquote> There is certainly a risk of a larger decline given the confirming MACD sell signal in the lower panel. I suspect in the near-term declines will still be met with buyers as the“momentum”chase remains.However, the risk of a deeper correction is certainly possible if something&nbsp;“spooks”the market, so risk management remains key.<blockquote>鉴于下图中确认的MACD卖出信号，肯定存在更大下跌的风险。我怀疑短期内仍会遇到买家的下跌“动量”蔡斯还在。然而，如果出现某些情况，则肯定有可能出现更深调整的风险“幽灵”市场，因此风险管理仍然是关键。</blockquote> Longer-Term Concerns<blockquote>长期关注</blockquote> One of the more concerning charts we have been monitoring for some time is the monthly expanding price pattern. Once again, the market has struggled with the top of the expanding pattern as relative strength continues to deteriorate. With the markets extremely extended on a monthly basis, as denoted by the red arrows, such periods have had less positive outcomes for investors.<blockquote>一段时间以来，我们一直在监测的更令人担忧的图表之一是月度价格扩张模式。随着相对强度继续恶化，市场再次在扩张模式的顶部挣扎。正如红色箭头所示，由于市场每月都在极度扩张，这种时期对投资者来说没有那么积极的结果。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8310d022a3d86ce471faf40b4562a753\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"928\"><blockquote></blockquote> Monthly price charts are&nbsp; NOT TO BE USED &nbsp;for trading portfolios. &nbsp;Indications are only valid at the end of the month, and they are slow to turn. Due to the lag, most short-term focused investors make assumptions the indications are&nbsp;“wrong”&nbsp;this time.&nbsp; However, history tends to prove that extreme market extensions rarely resolve themselves to the upside.<blockquote>每月价格图表为不得使用用于交易投资组合。适应症月底才有效，转得慢。由于滞后性，大多数关注短期的投资者都会假设迹象是“错了”这一次。然而，历史往往证明，极端的市场延伸很少会向上解决。</blockquote> Of course, what causes the eventual&nbsp;“reversion”&nbsp;is always an unexpected, exogenous event when sends investors scrambling for exits where there are few buyers.<blockquote>当然，是什么导致了最终“逆转”当投资者在买家很少的地方争先恐后地退出时，总是一个意想不到的外生事件。</blockquote> Managing Past The Noise<blockquote>克服噪音</blockquote> There are many arguments for both bulls and bears. On the bullish side, the passage of another stimulus bill will provide a short-term“sugar rush” in the markets and economy.<blockquote>多头和空头都有很多争论。利多方面，另一项刺激法案的通过将为短期市场和经济中的“糖业热潮”。</blockquote> On the bearish side, everything from extreme exuberance to over valuation poses a longer-term threat. As noted by SentimenTrader over the weekend:<blockquote>从看跌的角度来看，从极度繁荣到估值过高，一切都构成了长期威胁。正如SentimenTrader周末指出的那样：</blockquote> “Yesterday was the biggest split in almost 40 years. There were so many stocks hitting 52-week highs AND 52-week lows on both the NYSE andNasdaqthat it registered the 2nd most extreme reading since 1984. Split markets have a strong tendency to be ‘not bullish.'” <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d471873a9bdc6304f914500d00fed2ee\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"438\"><blockquote>“昨天是近40年来最大的分裂。纽约证券交易所和纳斯达克都有如此多的股票触及52周高点和52周低点，以至于创下了自1984年以来第二极端的读数。分裂的市场有很强的‘不看涨’倾向。”</blockquote> Whether you are bullish or bearish there is an argument to fit your agenda.<blockquote>无论你是看涨还是看跌，都有适合你议程的论点。</blockquote> Therein Lies The Rub<blockquote>这就是问题所在</blockquote> YOUR personal bias&nbsp;may be leading you astray as&nbsp;“cognitive biases”&nbsp;impair investor returns over time.<blockquote>你的个人偏见可能会把你引入歧途 “认知偏差”随着时间的推移损害投资者的回报。</blockquote> “Confirmation bias, also called&nbsp; my side &nbsp; bias , is the tendency to search for, interpret, and remember information in a way that confirms one’s preconceptions or working hypotheses. It is a systematic error of inductive reasoning.” Therefore, it is important to consider&nbsp;both sides&nbsp;of the current debate in order to make logical, rather than emotional, decisions about current portfolio allocations and risk management.<blockquote>“确认偏差，也称为我这边 偏见是以证实一个人的先入之见或工作假设的方式搜索、解释和记忆信息的倾向。这是归纳推理的系统性错误。”因此，考虑双方为了对当前的投资组合分配和风险管理做出合乎逻辑的而不是情绪化的决定。</blockquote> Currently, the&nbsp;“bulls”&nbsp;are still in control of the market. The long-term running bull trend remains intact…for now.The chart below is a MONTHLY chart of the S&amp;P 500. Importantly, the bullish trend that began in 2009 remains intact. A correction back to that trendline would encompass a nearly 30% decline from last week’s close.<blockquote>目前，“公牛”仍然控制着市场。目前，长期牛市趋势仍然完好无损。下图是标普500的月线图。重要的是，始于2009年的看涨趋势仍然完好无损。回调至该趋势线将较上周收盘价下跌近30%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d224c846fa83d3e58890ac5eedf2155e\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"673\"><blockquote></blockquote> However, the real question is the sustainability of the market at current levels given the rather extreme deviation from long-term means.<blockquote>然而，真正的问题是，鉴于与长期手段的相当极端的背离，市场在当前水平上的可持续性。</blockquote> For those of you who like analogs, the most comparable period historically is the 1998-1999 market“melt-up.”During that period, the market bounced off support and then began a 60%“melt-up”to the final peak in 2000. Currently, from the March lows, the S&amp;P has risen by nearly 60%. In both cases, the negative divergence in relative strength combined with grossly extended markets did not work out well.<blockquote>对于那些喜欢类比的人来说，历史上最具可比性的时期是1998-1999年的市场“融化。”在此期间，市场从支撑反弹，然后开始了60%的“融化”到2000年的最后高峰。目前，从3月份的低点来看，标普已经上涨了近60%。在这两种情况下，相对实力的负背离加上市场的大幅扩张，结果都不太好。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0817ed8ab27aa3d7f3b036fc5dc09b14\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"673\"><blockquote></blockquote> Continue To Focus On Risk Controls<blockquote>持续关注风险控制</blockquote> The big question right now is whether the correction that began a couple of weeks ago is over?<blockquote>现在最大的问题是，几周前开始的调整是否已经结束？</blockquote> I would not be surprised to see a reasonable bounce in the market given the passage of the stimulus, and short-term oversold conditions. Such certainly continues to support the“economic recovery”story. Unfortunately, once the stimulus runs through the system, the markets will again face economic realities.<blockquote>鉴于刺激措施的通过和短期超卖状况，我不会对市场出现合理反弹感到惊讶。这肯定会继续支持“经济复苏”故事。不幸的是，一旦刺激措施贯穿整个体系，市场将再次面临经济现实。</blockquote> For all of these reasons, we continue to hold slightly higher levels of cash and continue to focus on basic risk management controls. As such, over the next couple of weeks we will likely:<blockquote>出于所有这些原因，我们继续持有略高水平的现金，并继续专注于基本的风险管理控制。因此，在接下来的几周内，我们可能会：</blockquote> <ol> <li>Sell positions that simply are not working.If they were not working in the strongly rising market and failed to hold support during the decline, acknowledge your thesis is wrong.Investment Rule:&nbsp;Cut losers short.</li> <li>Trim winning positions back to original portfolio weightings.&nbsp;This allows you to harvest profits but remain invested in positions that are working.&nbsp;Investment Rule:&nbsp;Let winners run.</li> <li>Retain cash raised from sales&nbsp;for opportunities&nbsp;to purchase investments later at a better price.&nbsp;Investment Rule:&nbsp;Sell High, Buy Low</li> </ol> While&nbsp;“bearish”&nbsp;concerns are often dismissed when markets are rising, it does not mean they aren’t valid.Unfortunately, by the time the&nbsp;“herd”is alerted to a shift in overall sentiment, the stampede for the exits will already be well underway.<blockquote><ol><li>卖出根本不起作用的头寸。如果他们在强劲上涨的市场中不起作用，并且在下跌期间未能保持支撑，那么承认你的论点是错误的。投资法则：做空输家。</li><li>将获胜头寸削减至原始投资组合权重。这可以让你获得利润，但仍投资于有效的头寸。投资法则：让赢家跑。</li><li>保留销售筹集的现金 为了机会以后以更好的价格购买投资。投资法则：高抛低吸</li></ol>而“看跌”当市场上涨时，担忧往往会被忽视，但这并不意味着它们无效。不幸的是，当“牛群”如果注意到整体情绪的转变，退出的热潮将已经开始。</blockquote> Is the current bull market dead?&nbsp;I don’t know, and trying to predict the market is quite pointless.&nbsp;The risk for investors is the&nbsp;“willful blindness of change”until it is far too late to matter.&nbsp;Just remember, no one thought the“bull market was dead”in 1999 and 2007 either.<blockquote>当前牛市已死？我不知道，试图预测市场是毫无意义的。投资者面临的风险是“对变化的故意视而不见”直到为时已晚，无关紧要。请记住，没有人认为“牛市已死”1999年和2007年也是如此。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://realinvestmentadvice.com/technically-speaking-the-bull-market-is-on-shaky-ground/\">Real Investment Advice</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://realinvestmentadvice.com/technically-speaking-the-bull-market-is-on-shaky-ground/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1178216373","content_text":"Last week’s sell-off left the “bull market” on shaky ground.\nThe big question for investors at the moment is whether the 11-year old bull market is ending or is this just a“pause that refreshes?”\nWhile the optimistic“hope”is that this is just a pause within a continuing“bull market”advance, from a money management standpoint getting the answer“right”is vastly more important to long-term investing outcomes.\nThe easiest way to approach this analysis is to start with the following basic premise:\n\n“Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, and die on euphoria.”\n-Sir John Templeton\n\nEuphoria Has Been Evident\nThere is little argument that“euphoria”has not been evident in the market recently. From excessive levels of call-option buying by small traders to chasing the most shorted stocks in the market. As I noted just recently in“No One Is Bearish:”\n\nFund managers’ allocation to cash is down to 3.8%, the lowest since March 2013.Such was just before the “taper tantrum” era under former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke.\n\n\n\nAllocations to stocks and commodities are the highest since February 2011.\n\n\nThe point here, of course, is that when everyone is“in the pool,”it doesn’t take much to create a reversion.\nThe Value Trade Is No Longer A Value\nSuch is what we begin to see last week, as the previous favorite“momentum”trades were swapped in a massive rotation to“value.”Given the massively overbought extremes in the“value”plays, that rotation is likely going to be akin to“jumping from the frying pan into the fire.”\nSmall-cap value is more extended currently than at any point over the last 20-years using weekly data. With the index well into 3-standard deviation territory, extremely deviated from long-term means, and grossly overvalued, the eventual reversion will be brutal.\n\nThe same is seen in the weekly chart of the Russell 2000 index which picks up the Mid-cap exposure as well. With valuations in these stocks well ahead of even the most optimistic economic outlook, the risk of disappointment is high.\n\nThe poster child for the economic reopening and value rotation trade has been energy. Like small-cap value and the Russell 2000, energy is also exceedingly extended, overbought, and deviated from long-term means. At every similar point in history, the reversion was brutal.\n\nThis time is unlikely to be different.\nIntermediate Indicators Worrisome\nOur intermediate-term indicators, (which utilizes weekly data), continue to paint a more concerning picture. Turn your focus to the middle panel of“money flows.” Despite the “seeming” exuberance of the market over the last few months, money flows have continued to weaken.\nIn early November, we recommended increasing equity exposure to portfolios as the “buy signal”was triggered. However, beginning in February, that signal reversed leading to continued downward price pressures.\nWhile the market could indeed bounce in the short-term, the decline in “money flows,” and the convergence of “sell signals,” does increase our concern of a bigger decline over the next month or so.\n\nThe problem with the indicator is that it does not distinguish between declines. The“sell signal”in September and October of 2020 coincided with two 10% declines. The signal in March was a 35% crash over a 3-week period.\nThere is certainly a risk of a larger decline given the confirming MACD sell signal in the lower panel. I suspect in the near-term declines will still be met with buyers as the“momentum”chase remains.However, the risk of a deeper correction is certainly possible if something “spooks”the market, so risk management remains key.\nLonger-Term Concerns\nOne of the more concerning charts we have been monitoring for some time is the monthly expanding price pattern. Once again, the market has struggled with the top of the expanding pattern as relative strength continues to deteriorate. With the markets extremely extended on a monthly basis, as denoted by the red arrows, such periods have had less positive outcomes for investors.\n\n\nMonthly price charts are \nNOT TO BE USED\n for trading portfolios.\n Indications are only valid at the end of the month, and they are slow to turn.\n\nDue to the lag, most short-term focused investors make assumptions the indications are “wrong” this time.  However, history tends to prove that extreme market extensions rarely resolve themselves to the upside.\nOf course, what causes the eventual “reversion” is always an unexpected, exogenous event when sends investors scrambling for exits where there are few buyers.\nManaging Past The Noise\nThere are many arguments for both bulls and bears. On the bullish side, the passage of another stimulus bill will provide a short-term“sugar rush” in the markets and economy.\nOn the bearish side, everything from extreme exuberance to over valuation poses a longer-term threat. As noted by SentimenTrader over the weekend:\n\n“Yesterday was the biggest split in almost 40 years. There were so many stocks hitting 52-week highs AND 52-week lows on both the NYSE andNasdaqthat it registered the 2nd most extreme reading since 1984.\nSplit markets have a strong tendency to be ‘not bullish.'”\n\n\nWhether you are bullish or bearish there is an argument to fit your agenda.\nTherein Lies The Rub\nYOUR personal bias may be leading you astray as “cognitive biases” impair investor returns over time.\n\n“Confirmation bias, also called \nmy side\n \nbias\n, is the tendency to search for, interpret, and remember information in a way that confirms one’s preconceptions or working hypotheses. It is a systematic error of inductive reasoning.”\n\nTherefore, it is important to consider both sides of the current debate in order to make logical, rather than emotional, decisions about current portfolio allocations and risk management.\nCurrently, the “bulls” are still in control of the market. The long-term running bull trend remains intact…for now.The chart below is a MONTHLY chart of the S&P 500. Importantly, the bullish trend that began in 2009 remains intact. A correction back to that trendline would encompass a nearly 30% decline from last week’s close.\n\nHowever, the real question is the sustainability of the market at current levels given the rather extreme deviation from long-term means.\nFor those of you who like analogs, the most comparable period historically is the 1998-1999 market“melt-up.”During that period, the market bounced off support and then began a 60%“melt-up”to the final peak in 2000. Currently, from the March lows, the S&P has risen by nearly 60%. In both cases, the negative divergence in relative strength combined with grossly extended markets did not work out well.\n\nContinue To Focus On Risk Controls\nThe big question right now is whether the correction that began a couple of weeks ago is over?\nI would not be surprised to see a reasonable bounce in the market given the passage of the stimulus, and short-term oversold conditions. Such certainly continues to support the“economic recovery”story. Unfortunately, once the stimulus runs through the system, the markets will again face economic realities.\nFor all of these reasons, we continue to hold slightly higher levels of cash and continue to focus on basic risk management controls. As such, over the next couple of weeks we will likely:\n\nSell positions that simply are not working.If they were not working in the strongly rising market and failed to hold support during the decline, acknowledge your thesis is wrong.Investment Rule: Cut losers short.\nTrim winning positions back to original portfolio weightings. This allows you to harvest profits but remain invested in positions that are working. Investment Rule: Let winners run.\nRetain cash raised from sales for opportunities to purchase investments later at a better price. Investment Rule: Sell High, Buy Low\n\nWhile “bearish” concerns are often dismissed when markets are rising, it does not mean they aren’t valid.Unfortunately, by the time the “herd”is alerted to a shift in overall sentiment, the stampede for the exits will already be well underway.\nIs the current bull market dead? I don’t know, and trying to predict the market is quite pointless. The risk for investors is the “willful blindness of change”until it is far too late to matter. Just remember, no one thought the“bull market was dead”in 1999 and 2007 either.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2025,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":3,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}