巴菲特如何做出投资决定?

 

· 前言·

每年,在伯克希尔的股东大会上,在五个小时的时间里,沃伦·巴菲特和查理·芒格回答股东提出的各种问题。几十年来,股东大会不允许录音、录像。投资者只有亲临现场才能目睹两位大师的风采,倾听两位大师的教诲。现在,伯克希尔已将其富有传奇色彩的股东大会问答环节首次公开。

· 全部内容 ·

 

 

Q:And so, the first part is, how do you get a few excellent investment ideas to be so successful?Do you read any special newspapers or industry magazines? Or do you visit the headquarters or any subsidiaries of companies?

 

问:你是如何得到少数几个优异的投资点子的?你会读特别报纸或行业杂志吗?你会去实地考察公司的总部或者分部吗?

 

I mean we — (laughter) — read a lot.

我的意思是,我们读很多东西

 

And we read daily publications

我们会读每日的出版物

 

we read weekly or monthly periodicals

我们也读月刊或者周刊

 

we read annual reports, we read 10-Ks, we read 10-Qs.

我们读年报,10K,10Q

 

And fortunately,

幸运的是,

 

the investment business is a business where knowledge cumulates.

投资行业是一个知识累积的行业

 

I mean, everything you learn when you’re 20 or 30

所有你在20到30岁之间学的东西

 

you may tweak some as you go along,

随着你的进展,你可能会调整一下

 

but it all kind of builds into a knowledge base that’s useful forever.

但它构成了一个永远有用的知识库。

 

Forty or 50 years ago I did a lot of talking to managements.

四五十年前,我与管理层进行了很多交谈。

 

I used to go out and take a trip every now and then and really drop in on maybe 15 or 20 companies.

我曾经不时地出差,并且真的可以参观15或20家公司。

 

I haven’t done that for a long, long time.

但我已经很长很长时间没有这么做了

 

We do not find it particularly helpful to talk to managements.

我们认为与管理层交谈并不是特别有用。

 

Managements frequently want to come to Omaha and talk to me,

管理层经常想来奥马哈与我交谈,

 

and they usually have a variety of reasons that they say they want to talk to me,

他们通常有各种各样的理由说他们想跟谈谈,

 

but what they’re really hoping is we get interested in their stock.

但他们真正希望的是我们对他们的股票感兴趣。

 

That never works.

那永远不会奏效。

 

You know, managements are not the best reporting parties in most cases.

你知道,在大多数情况下,管理层并不是最佳汇报方。

 

The figures tell us more than a management does.

数据能够告诉我们的比管理层更多。

 

So we do not spend any real amount of time talking to management.

因此,实际上我们不会花费太多时间与管理层交谈。

 

The more basic knowledge you have,

你获得的知识越是根本,

 

I think the less new knowledge you have to get.

你需要获得的新知识越少。

 

And the game is a lot like that fellow that plays chess blindfolded.

这和蒙着眼睛进行象棋比赛很像。

 

He’s got a memory of the board and everything that happened before.

蒙着眼睛的人对棋盘和已经走完的棋局非常清楚。

 

And that enables him to do the next move in a way he never could if you just showed him the board mid game, cold.

这使得他能够为下一步棋做好准备。不过,这和你突然拿出一盘棋的残局让他走完全不一样。

· END ·$(399001)$$(HSI)$

免责声明:上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点,不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

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