$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 我觉得这篇文章对特斯拉的分析很有意义,以下文章转载于Dave Lee。

It's helpful to think of Tesla as 3 separate businesses:

1. Vehicles

2. Energy

3. AI

Energy is doing great. 24.4% gross margins and it's super early in Tesla Energy's growth. This is something not many are talking about. Tesla also progressing very well with manufacturing their own 4680 cells.

AI is doing fantastic. Tesla just took online a 10k GPU H100 cluster, doubling compute power quarter-over-quarter. And they are making the most ambitious effort toward solving real-world AI. Ultimately Tesla AI will be where most of TSLA's long-term value comes from via FSD/Robotaxi and Optimus.

Tesla's vehicle business is going through some hiccups at the moment with shrinking margins due to many price cuts this year. Tesla management blames high interest rates and uncertain macroeconomic situation. Some investors blame Tesla's lack of advertising. I think it's probably somewhat of a complicated manner. Tesla's addressable market in the luxury sedan/SUV market is going to be constrained based off of the actual market size. So in that sense, I think Elon Musk is correct that ultimately Tesla needs to either reduce prices or come out with a cheaper model to enlarge their addressable markets. However, there's probably more that can be done to grow target customers right now even without price cuts. But I'm fine with leaving that up to management. I own a part of the company as a stockholder, and part of that is somewhat ignoring minor issues as long as it's not mission-critical. Whether Tesla advertises a little or a lot, I'm not sure if it's really mission-critical. I look at it more as a choice of how management chooses to reach their mission-critical goals. However, whether or not they solve real world AI is mission critical. This is what is multiple orders of magnitude more important than advertising.

So, how is Tesla doing overall? I think if you look at the long-term picture, and if you believe Tesla solving real-world AI is where TSLA will accrue most of its long-term value then things are going great.

But if you need to access TSLA capital (ie. sell shares) in the next year or so, then I can understand the frustration.

将特斯拉视为 3 个独立的业务是有帮助的:

1. 车辆

2. 能源

3.AI

能源做得很好。 毛利率为24.4%,这是特斯拉能源增长的早期阶段。 这是没有多少人在谈论的事情。 特斯拉在制造自己的4680电池方面也进展顺利。

人工智能做得很棒。 特斯拉刚刚上线了一个10k GPU H100集群,计算能力环比翻了一番。 他们正在为解决现实世界的人工智能做出最雄心勃勃的努力。 最终,特斯拉人工智能将成为TSLA的大部分长期价值来自FSD / Robotaxi和Optimus的地方。

特斯拉的汽车业务目前正在经历一些小问题,由于今年多次降价,利润率下降。 特斯拉管理层指责高利率和不确定的宏观经济形势。 一些投资者指责特斯拉缺乏广告。 我认为这可能有点复杂。 特斯拉在豪华轿车/SUV市场的潜在市场将根据实际市场规模受到限制。 因此,从这个意义上说,我认为埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)是正确的,最终特斯拉要么需要降低价格,要么推出更便宜的车型来扩大其潜在市场。 然而,即使不降价,现在可能还有更多的事情可以做,以增加目标客户。 但我可以把它留给管理层。 作为股东,我拥有公司的一部分,其中一部分是忽略了一些小问题,只要它不是关键任务。 特斯拉是做广告还是做很多广告,我不确定它是否真的是关键任务。 我更多地将其视为管理层选择如何实现其关键任务目标的选择。 然而,他们是否解决现实世界的人工智能是关键任务。 这是比广告更重要的多个数量级。那么,特斯拉整体表现如何? 我认为,如果你看一下长期情况,如果你相信特斯拉解决现实世界的人工智能是TSLA将获得大部分长期价值的地方,那么事情就会进展顺利。

但是,如果您需要在未来一年左右获得TSLA资本(即出售股票),那么我可以理解这种挫败感。


免责声明:上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点,不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

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  • 马老板是干一行颠覆一行,有水平

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  • 哎呀呀小伙子
    ·2023-10-21

    截至年底,你预计这股票能涨到什么位置

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  • 弹力绳22
    ·2023-10-21

    长期来说,特斯拉的股票确实是有投资价值

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  • 大米饭00
    ·2023-10-21

    能不能看看你对特斯拉的持仓?

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