Interesting_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

lucasleejh
2021-06-13

Interesting

The Fed's Sneaky Plot<blockquote>美联储的鬼鬼祟祟的阴谋</blockquote>

For the past 22 years, every time the stock market whimpered, wheezed or whined, the Federal Reserve

The Fed's Sneaky Plot<blockquote>美联储的鬼鬼祟祟的阴谋</blockquote>

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

推荐
最新

暂无评论

热议股票

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":186574041,"tweetId":"186574041","gmtCreate":1623515330283,"gmtModify":1634032196954,"author":{"id":3573034808387884,"idStr":"3573034808387884","authorId":3573034808387884,"authorIdStr":"3573034808387884","name":"lucasleejh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fedeef2b40f396bb56bfbc8a74a31d12","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":1,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Interesting&nbsp;</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Interesting&nbsp;</body></html>","text":"Interesting","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/186574041","repostId":1187301815,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1187301815","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623415058,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1187301815?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-11 20:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Fed's Sneaky Plot<blockquote>美联储的鬼鬼祟祟的阴谋</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187301815","media":"Zerohedge","summary":"For the past 22 years, every time the stock market whimpered, wheezed or whined, the Federal Reserve","content":"For the past 22 years, every time the stock market whimpered, wheezed or whined, the Federal Reserve rushed to soothe the spoiled crybaby.<blockquote>在过去的22年里，每当股市呜咽、喘息或哀嚎时，美联储都会冲上去安抚这个被宠坏的爱哭鬼。</blockquote> There are two consequential results of the&nbsp;Fed as savior:<blockquote>有两个结果作为救世主喂养：</blockquote> 1. The Fed has perfected&nbsp; moral hazard :everyone from the money manager betting billions to the punters gambling their stimmy money is absolutely confident I can’t lose because the Fed will always push the market higher. What happens when participants are confident they can’t possibly lose? They make ever-riskier and ever-larger bets. The entire nation is in the grip of a moral hazard mania, all based on the confidence that the Fed will always push every market higher—always, without fail.<blockquote>1.美联储已经完善道德风险：从押注数十亿美元的资金经理到押注自己刺激资金的投注者，每个人都绝对相信我不会输，因为美联储总是会推高市场。当参与者确信他们不可能失败时会发生什么？他们下的赌注越来越大，风险也越来越大。整个国家都陷入了道德风险狂热，这一切都是基于这样一种信心，即美联储将永远推高每个市场——永远，不会失败。</blockquote> 2. Organic (i.e. non-manipulated) market forces have been extinguished.There is now only one consequential force, the Fed. All markets are now 100% dependent on the Fed responding to every bleat from every punter who’s recklessly risky bet is about to go bad. The Fed is now the perfect union of quasi-religious savior and&nbsp;Helicopter Parent: oh dear, our little darling got high and crashed the Porsche? Quick, let’s save our precious market from any consequences!<blockquote>2.有机的（即非操纵的）市场力量已经消失。现在只有一股重要力量，那就是美联储。所有市场现在都100%依赖美联储来回应每一个鲁莽冒险的赌注即将变坏的投注者的每一个抱怨。美联储现在是准宗教救世主和直升机母体哦，亲爱的，我们的小宝贝嗑药了，把保时捷撞坏了？快，让我们拯救我们宝贵的市场免受任何后果！</blockquote> Every day, Fed speakers take to the pulpit to spew another sermon about the Fed’s god-like power and wisdom. The true believers soak up every word: golly-gee, the Fed is better than any god — it’s guaranteeing I can get rich if I just leverage up any bet in any market!<blockquote>每天，美联储发言人都会走上讲坛，再次宣讲美联储上帝般的力量和智慧。真正的信徒会吸收每一个字：天哪，美联储比任何上帝都好——如果我在任何市场上加大赌注，它保证我可以致富！</blockquote> With a savior like the Fed, you don’t need a real economy or a real market - all you need is the assurance that the Fed will save every market from every consequence.<blockquote>有了美联储这样的救世主，你不需要实体经济或实体市场——你需要的只是美联储将拯救每个市场免受各种后果的保证。</blockquote> The Point of Diminishing Returns<blockquote>收益递减点</blockquote> All this hubris is jolly while it lasts, but since risk cannot be dissipated, it can only be transferred, the Fed has transferred decades of fast-rising risk to the entire system. The entire system now rests on the Fed, a dependency that raises its own risks.<blockquote>所有这些傲慢在持续的时候都是快乐的，但由于风险无法消散，只能转移，美联储已经将几十年来快速上升的风险转移到了整个系统。整个体系现在依赖于美联储，这种依赖增加了自身的风险。</blockquote> By imposing moral hazard and crushing consequences, the Fed has stripped the entire financial system of self-correcting mechanisms. This is a surefire recipe for systemic failure and collapse.<blockquote>通过施加道德风险和毁灭性后果，美联储剥夺了整个金融体系的自我纠正机制。这肯定会导致系统性失败和崩溃。</blockquote> There is no way to wean the system off its dependence on the Fed, and no way to restore organic market functions. The slightest reduction in the Fed’s spew of trillions will crash the market, because there is literally nothing holding it aloft but Fed spew — monetary and verbal.<blockquote>没有办法让这个体系摆脱对美联储的依赖，也没有办法恢复有机的市场功能。美联储数万亿美元的资金稍微减少就会让市场崩溃，因为除了美联储的资金——货币和口头上的资金——之外，几乎没有什么能支撑市场。</blockquote> The problem with becoming 100% dependent on the Fed is any wobble will crash the system — and&nbsp;diminishing returns&nbsp;guarantee a wobble.<blockquote>100%依赖美联储的问题是，任何动摇都会导致系统崩溃——而且收益递减保证摇晃。</blockquote> The system’s sensitivity to the Fed’s spew of trillions of dollars and claptrap preaching is diminishing,which is why the Fed has moved from spewing hundreds of billions to trillions, and why Fed speakers who we once heard from once a month are now out in force every single day.<blockquote>该系统对美联储数万亿美元的喷涌和哗众取宠的说教的敏感性正在减弱，这就是为什么美联储已经从数千亿美元增加到数万亿美元，也是为什么我们曾经每月听到一次的美联储发言人现在每天都在大量出现。</blockquote> Remarkably, few anticipate any consequence from the Fed’s perfection of moral hazard and the system’s 100% dependence on the Fed’s spew even as diminishing returns gnaw away at the efficacy of the Fed’s ever more grandiose policies and pronouncements.<blockquote>值得注意的是，很少有人预料到美联储道德风险的完善和系统对美联储的100%依赖会产生任何后果，即使回报递减侵蚀了美联储越来越浮夸的政策和声明的效力。</blockquote> If you wanted to design a system guaranteed to collapse in a putrid heap, you’d make moral hazard ubiquitous and you’d make the system 100% dependent on a hubris-soaked faux savior.<blockquote>如果你想设计一个肯定会在腐烂的堆里崩溃的系统，你会让道德风险无处不在，你会让这个系统100%依赖于一个傲慢自大的假救世主。</blockquote> Hey, that describes America’s economy and financial system perfectly. But now I want to explore something about the Fed you’ve probably never considered before…<blockquote>嘿，这完美地描述了美国的经济和金融体系。但现在我想探索一些你以前可能从未考虑过的关于美联储的事情……</blockquote> The Fed’s Official and Unofficial Mandates<blockquote>美联储的官方和非官方授权</blockquote> There are two standard-issue narratives about the Federal Reserve’s agenda: the Fed’s official narrative is that the Fed’s mandate is to keep inflation under control while promoting full employment.<blockquote>关于美联储的议程有两种标准的叙述：美联储的官方叙述是，美联储的任务是在促进充分就业的同时控制通胀。</blockquote> The unofficial mandate that’s obvious to all is to prop up assets, especially the stock market, which has become the Fed’s preferred&nbsp;signifier of prosperity and the rightness/goodness of Fed policies.<blockquote>所有人都显而易见的非官方授权是支撑资产，尤其是股市，这已成为美联储的首选繁荣和美联储政策正确/良好的象征。</blockquote> The other narrative results from “following the money”: the Fed is owned by private-sector banks, and so behind the curtain of happy-talk (full employment, blah-blah-blah), the Fed’s only real agenda is to further enrich banks and too big to fail/jail financiers — something it has managed to do with remarkable success.<blockquote>另一种说法来自“跟随金钱”：美联储归私营部门银行所有，因此在快乐的谈话（充分就业，等等）背后，美联储唯一真正的议程是进一步丰富银行和“大到不能倒”/监禁金融家——这是它成功做到的。</blockquote> That the Fed inflated the 1999-2000 dot-com bubble and the 2005-2008 housing bubble is undeniable, as is the Fed’s 2008-09 bailout of the global financial system and too big to fail/jail mortgage originators and a vast array of other profiteering, embezzler-scoundrels.<blockquote>美联储助长了1999-2000年的互联网泡沫和2005-2008年的房地产泡沫，这是不可否认的，美联储2008-09年对全球金融体系的救助以及“大到不能倒”/监禁抵押贷款发起人和大量其他暴利、贪污的恶棍也是不可否认的。</blockquote> The Fed’s zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP) and unprecedented quantitative easing monetary stimulus have pushed the Fed balance sheet, federal debt and systemic debt to heights that heretofore would have been inconceivable.<blockquote>美联储的零利率政策（ZIRP）和史无前例的量化宽松货币刺激将美联储的资产负债表、联邦债务和系统性债务推到了迄今为止难以想象的高度。</blockquote> While pursuing these non-mutually-exclusive agendas —&nbsp;we came to do good and stayed to do well— the Fed has generated destabilizing extremes of wealth and income inequality, a reality that the Fed laughably denies. (There must be much mirth about this BS behind closed doors.)<blockquote>在追求这些互不排斥的议程的同时-我们来是为了做好事，留下来是为了做好事——美联储制造了破坏稳定的极端财富和收入不平等，美联储可笑地否认了这一现实。（关起门来一定会有很多笑声。）</blockquote> Allow me to posit a third agenda which doesn’t negate either conventional agenda but does explain some of the Fed’s actions since 2008…<blockquote>请允许我提出第三个议程，它不会否定任何一个传统议程，但确实解释了美联储自2008年以来的一些行动……</blockquote> The Fed’s Real Mandate<blockquote>美联储的真正使命</blockquote> As the system unravels, the Fed’s primary imperative is to save the financial system and economy from the greed-soaked incompetence of the other players, public and private, by taking charge of critical swaths of the financial system and economy.<blockquote>随着金融体系的瓦解，美联储的首要任务是通过接管金融体系和经济的关键领域，将金融体系和经济从其他参与者（无论是公共还是私人）充满贪婪的无能中拯救出来。</blockquote> After the subprime debacle almost took down the entire global financial system, the Fed (with a bit of help from Congress) essentially took over the entire $10 trillion U.S. mortgage market.<blockquote>在次贷危机几乎摧毁了整个全球金融体系之后，美联储（在国会的一点帮助下）基本上接管了整个10万亿美元的美国抵押贷款市场。</blockquote> Private-sector lenders had figured out how to issue guaranteed-to-default mortgages and pass off the fraudulent mortgage-backed securities (MBS) to a global cast of suckers who believed America’s financial system was properly regulated. (Haha, the joke’s on you.)<blockquote>私营部门贷款机构已经想出了如何发行违约担保抵押贷款，并将欺诈性的抵押贷款支持证券（MBS）转嫁给全球一群认为美国金融体系受到适当监管的傻瓜。（哈哈，笑话在你身上。）</blockquote> In response, the Fed basically nationalized the mortgage market, buying more than $1 trillion in mortgage-backed securities and ensuring that virtually all mortgages in the U.S. were guaranteed or originated by federal agencies: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (after their bankruptcy as quasi-private agencies), FHA and VA.<blockquote>作为回应，美联储基本上将抵押贷款市场国有化，购买了超过1万亿美元的抵押贷款支持证券，并确保美国几乎所有的抵押贷款都由联邦机构担保或发起：房利美和房地美（在作为准私人机构破产后）、联邦住房管理局和弗吉尼亚州。</blockquote> More recently, the Fed realized the private broker-dealer banks that handle the all-important issuance of Treasury bonds could no longer be trusted.<blockquote>最近，美联储意识到处理至关重要的国债发行的私人经纪自营商银行不再值得信任。</blockquote> As analyst Christopher Whalen explains,&nbsp;“The Fed’s primary concern is not employment or inflation, but rather keeping the market for Treasury securities functioning.”<blockquote>正如分析师克里斯托弗·惠伦解释的那样，“美联储主要关心的不是就业或通胀，而是保持国债市场的运转。”</blockquote> In response, the Fed is cutting the broker-dealers out as unreliable players. The Treasury market and the U.S. dollar are the foundations of federal spending and power, and so the Fed has realized that, just as it did with the fraudulent embezzlers of the private-sector mortgage market, it has to bypass or neuter the private-sector players as threats to stability.<blockquote>作为回应，美联储正在将经纪自营商视为不可靠的参与者。国债市场和美元是联邦支出和权力的基础，因此美联储已经意识到，就像它对私营部门抵押贷款市场的欺诈性盗用者所做的那样，它必须绕过或压制私营部门参与者对稳定的威胁。</blockquote> Next up on the Fed’s agenda: take charge of the issuance of new money to households and cut Congress out of the loop.<blockquote>美联储的下一步议程是：负责向家庭发行新货币，并将国会排除在外。</blockquote> Money Directly From the Fed<blockquote>直接来自美联储的资金</blockquote> If you read up on the Fed’s plans for its own digital currency and the FedNow system, you’ll come to understand that the Fed has concluded that supporting consumption (i.e. giving money to households to enable more spending) is too important to leave in the corrupt hands of the legislative bodies (Congress) or the Treasury, which must issue debt to raise cash to distribute to households, debt that further burdens federal revenues and spending.<blockquote>如果你读过美联储自己的数字货币和FedNow系统的计划，你就会明白，美联储已经得出结论，支持消费（即向家庭提供资金以实现更多支出）太重要了，不能留在立法机构（国会）或财政部的腐败手中，它们必须发行债务来筹集现金分配给家庭，这些债务进一步加重了联邦收入和支出的负担。</blockquote> We can’t count on you, broker-dealers or Congress, so we’re taking charge, as the system is now so over-extended that any misadventure by other players could well be catastrophic. The only alternative from the Fed’s point of view is to take charge and cut the untrustworthy, self-serving incompetents out of the loop.<blockquote>我们不能指望你、经纪交易商或国会，所以我们负责，因为这个系统现在已经过度扩展，其他参与者的任何不幸都很可能是灾难性的。从美联储的角度来看，唯一的选择是承担责任，将不值得信任、自私自利的无能者排除在外。</blockquote> So the Fed’s plan is to create new money out of thin air and deposit it directly in household accounts via the FedNow system.<blockquote>因此，美联储的计划是凭空创造新货币，并通过FedNow系统将其直接存入家庭账户。</blockquote> The danger of this power grab is that the Fed will misjudge the situation, and that will prove catastrophic because the system has been stripped of resilience, feedback and redundancy.<blockquote>这种权力攫取的危险在于，美联储会误判形势，而这将被证明是灾难性的，因为该系统已经被剥夺了弹性、反馈和冗余。</blockquote> I suspect the Fed sees itself as trapped by the incompetence and greed of the other players and by its own policy extremes that were little more than expedient “saves” of a system that is unraveling due to its fragility and brittleness.<blockquote>我怀疑美联储认为自己被其他参与者的无能和贪婪以及自己的极端政策所困，这些政策只不过是对一个因其脆弱性和脆弱性而崩溃的体系的权宜之计的“拯救”。</blockquote> The groundwork is being laid for the Fed’s digital currency and direct deposits to households via FedNow accounts.<blockquote>正在为美联储的数字货币和通过FedNow账户直接向家庭存款奠定基础。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Fed's Sneaky Plot<blockquote>美联储的鬼鬼祟祟的阴谋</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Fed's Sneaky Plot<blockquote>美联储的鬼鬼祟祟的阴谋</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nZerohedge2021-06-11 20:37\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nFor the past 22 years, every time the stock market whimpered, wheezed or whined, the Federal Reserve rushed to soothe the spoiled crybaby.<blockquote>在过去的22年里，每当股市呜咽、喘息或哀嚎时，美联储都会冲上去安抚这个被宠坏的爱哭鬼。</blockquote> There are two consequential results of the&nbsp;Fed as savior:<blockquote>有两个结果作为救世主喂养：</blockquote> 1. The Fed has perfected&nbsp; moral hazard :everyone from the money manager betting billions to the punters gambling their stimmy money is absolutely confident I can’t lose because the Fed will always push the market higher. What happens when participants are confident they can’t possibly lose? They make ever-riskier and ever-larger bets. The entire nation is in the grip of a moral hazard mania, all based on the confidence that the Fed will always push every market higher—always, without fail.<blockquote>1.美联储已经完善道德风险：从押注数十亿美元的资金经理到押注自己刺激资金的投注者，每个人都绝对相信我不会输，因为美联储总是会推高市场。当参与者确信他们不可能失败时会发生什么？他们下的赌注越来越大，风险也越来越大。整个国家都陷入了道德风险狂热，这一切都是基于这样一种信心，即美联储将永远推高每个市场——永远，不会失败。</blockquote> 2. Organic (i.e. non-manipulated) market forces have been extinguished.There is now only one consequential force, the Fed. All markets are now 100% dependent on the Fed responding to every bleat from every punter who’s recklessly risky bet is about to go bad. The Fed is now the perfect union of quasi-religious savior and&nbsp;Helicopter Parent: oh dear, our little darling got high and crashed the Porsche? Quick, let’s save our precious market from any consequences!<blockquote>2.有机的（即非操纵的）市场力量已经消失。现在只有一股重要力量，那就是美联储。所有市场现在都100%依赖美联储来回应每一个鲁莽冒险的赌注即将变坏的投注者的每一个抱怨。美联储现在是准宗教救世主和直升机母体哦，亲爱的，我们的小宝贝嗑药了，把保时捷撞坏了？快，让我们拯救我们宝贵的市场免受任何后果！</blockquote> Every day, Fed speakers take to the pulpit to spew another sermon about the Fed’s god-like power and wisdom. The true believers soak up every word: golly-gee, the Fed is better than any god — it’s guaranteeing I can get rich if I just leverage up any bet in any market!<blockquote>每天，美联储发言人都会走上讲坛，再次宣讲美联储上帝般的力量和智慧。真正的信徒会吸收每一个字：天哪，美联储比任何上帝都好——如果我在任何市场上加大赌注，它保证我可以致富！</blockquote> With a savior like the Fed, you don’t need a real economy or a real market - all you need is the assurance that the Fed will save every market from every consequence.<blockquote>有了美联储这样的救世主，你不需要实体经济或实体市场——你需要的只是美联储将拯救每个市场免受各种后果的保证。</blockquote> The Point of Diminishing Returns<blockquote>收益递减点</blockquote> All this hubris is jolly while it lasts, but since risk cannot be dissipated, it can only be transferred, the Fed has transferred decades of fast-rising risk to the entire system. The entire system now rests on the Fed, a dependency that raises its own risks.<blockquote>所有这些傲慢在持续的时候都是快乐的，但由于风险无法消散，只能转移，美联储已经将几十年来快速上升的风险转移到了整个系统。整个体系现在依赖于美联储，这种依赖增加了自身的风险。</blockquote> By imposing moral hazard and crushing consequences, the Fed has stripped the entire financial system of self-correcting mechanisms. This is a surefire recipe for systemic failure and collapse.<blockquote>通过施加道德风险和毁灭性后果，美联储剥夺了整个金融体系的自我纠正机制。这肯定会导致系统性失败和崩溃。</blockquote> There is no way to wean the system off its dependence on the Fed, and no way to restore organic market functions. The slightest reduction in the Fed’s spew of trillions will crash the market, because there is literally nothing holding it aloft but Fed spew — monetary and verbal.<blockquote>没有办法让这个体系摆脱对美联储的依赖，也没有办法恢复有机的市场功能。美联储数万亿美元的资金稍微减少就会让市场崩溃，因为除了美联储的资金——货币和口头上的资金——之外，几乎没有什么能支撑市场。</blockquote> The problem with becoming 100% dependent on the Fed is any wobble will crash the system — and&nbsp;diminishing returns&nbsp;guarantee a wobble.<blockquote>100%依赖美联储的问题是，任何动摇都会导致系统崩溃——而且收益递减保证摇晃。</blockquote> The system’s sensitivity to the Fed’s spew of trillions of dollars and claptrap preaching is diminishing,which is why the Fed has moved from spewing hundreds of billions to trillions, and why Fed speakers who we once heard from once a month are now out in force every single day.<blockquote>该系统对美联储数万亿美元的喷涌和哗众取宠的说教的敏感性正在减弱，这就是为什么美联储已经从数千亿美元增加到数万亿美元，也是为什么我们曾经每月听到一次的美联储发言人现在每天都在大量出现。</blockquote> Remarkably, few anticipate any consequence from the Fed’s perfection of moral hazard and the system’s 100% dependence on the Fed’s spew even as diminishing returns gnaw away at the efficacy of the Fed’s ever more grandiose policies and pronouncements.<blockquote>值得注意的是，很少有人预料到美联储道德风险的完善和系统对美联储的100%依赖会产生任何后果，即使回报递减侵蚀了美联储越来越浮夸的政策和声明的效力。</blockquote> If you wanted to design a system guaranteed to collapse in a putrid heap, you’d make moral hazard ubiquitous and you’d make the system 100% dependent on a hubris-soaked faux savior.<blockquote>如果你想设计一个肯定会在腐烂的堆里崩溃的系统，你会让道德风险无处不在，你会让这个系统100%依赖于一个傲慢自大的假救世主。</blockquote> Hey, that describes America’s economy and financial system perfectly. But now I want to explore something about the Fed you’ve probably never considered before…<blockquote>嘿，这完美地描述了美国的经济和金融体系。但现在我想探索一些你以前可能从未考虑过的关于美联储的事情……</blockquote> The Fed’s Official and Unofficial Mandates<blockquote>美联储的官方和非官方授权</blockquote> There are two standard-issue narratives about the Federal Reserve’s agenda: the Fed’s official narrative is that the Fed’s mandate is to keep inflation under control while promoting full employment.<blockquote>关于美联储的议程有两种标准的叙述：美联储的官方叙述是，美联储的任务是在促进充分就业的同时控制通胀。</blockquote> The unofficial mandate that’s obvious to all is to prop up assets, especially the stock market, which has become the Fed’s preferred&nbsp;signifier of prosperity and the rightness/goodness of Fed policies.<blockquote>所有人都显而易见的非官方授权是支撑资产，尤其是股市，这已成为美联储的首选繁荣和美联储政策正确/良好的象征。</blockquote> The other narrative results from “following the money”: the Fed is owned by private-sector banks, and so behind the curtain of happy-talk (full employment, blah-blah-blah), the Fed’s only real agenda is to further enrich banks and too big to fail/jail financiers — something it has managed to do with remarkable success.<blockquote>另一种说法来自“跟随金钱”：美联储归私营部门银行所有，因此在快乐的谈话（充分就业，等等）背后，美联储唯一真正的议程是进一步丰富银行和“大到不能倒”/监禁金融家——这是它成功做到的。</blockquote> That the Fed inflated the 1999-2000 dot-com bubble and the 2005-2008 housing bubble is undeniable, as is the Fed’s 2008-09 bailout of the global financial system and too big to fail/jail mortgage originators and a vast array of other profiteering, embezzler-scoundrels.<blockquote>美联储助长了1999-2000年的互联网泡沫和2005-2008年的房地产泡沫，这是不可否认的，美联储2008-09年对全球金融体系的救助以及“大到不能倒”/监禁抵押贷款发起人和大量其他暴利、贪污的恶棍也是不可否认的。</blockquote> The Fed’s zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP) and unprecedented quantitative easing monetary stimulus have pushed the Fed balance sheet, federal debt and systemic debt to heights that heretofore would have been inconceivable.<blockquote>美联储的零利率政策（ZIRP）和史无前例的量化宽松货币刺激将美联储的资产负债表、联邦债务和系统性债务推到了迄今为止难以想象的高度。</blockquote> While pursuing these non-mutually-exclusive agendas —&nbsp;we came to do good and stayed to do well— the Fed has generated destabilizing extremes of wealth and income inequality, a reality that the Fed laughably denies. (There must be much mirth about this BS behind closed doors.)<blockquote>在追求这些互不排斥的议程的同时-我们来是为了做好事，留下来是为了做好事——美联储制造了破坏稳定的极端财富和收入不平等，美联储可笑地否认了这一现实。（关起门来一定会有很多笑声。）</blockquote> Allow me to posit a third agenda which doesn’t negate either conventional agenda but does explain some of the Fed’s actions since 2008…<blockquote>请允许我提出第三个议程，它不会否定任何一个传统议程，但确实解释了美联储自2008年以来的一些行动……</blockquote> The Fed’s Real Mandate<blockquote>美联储的真正使命</blockquote> As the system unravels, the Fed’s primary imperative is to save the financial system and economy from the greed-soaked incompetence of the other players, public and private, by taking charge of critical swaths of the financial system and economy.<blockquote>随着金融体系的瓦解，美联储的首要任务是通过接管金融体系和经济的关键领域，将金融体系和经济从其他参与者（无论是公共还是私人）充满贪婪的无能中拯救出来。</blockquote> After the subprime debacle almost took down the entire global financial system, the Fed (with a bit of help from Congress) essentially took over the entire $10 trillion U.S. mortgage market.<blockquote>在次贷危机几乎摧毁了整个全球金融体系之后，美联储（在国会的一点帮助下）基本上接管了整个10万亿美元的美国抵押贷款市场。</blockquote> Private-sector lenders had figured out how to issue guaranteed-to-default mortgages and pass off the fraudulent mortgage-backed securities (MBS) to a global cast of suckers who believed America’s financial system was properly regulated. (Haha, the joke’s on you.)<blockquote>私营部门贷款机构已经想出了如何发行违约担保抵押贷款，并将欺诈性的抵押贷款支持证券（MBS）转嫁给全球一群认为美国金融体系受到适当监管的傻瓜。（哈哈，笑话在你身上。）</blockquote> In response, the Fed basically nationalized the mortgage market, buying more than $1 trillion in mortgage-backed securities and ensuring that virtually all mortgages in the U.S. were guaranteed or originated by federal agencies: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (after their bankruptcy as quasi-private agencies), FHA and VA.<blockquote>作为回应，美联储基本上将抵押贷款市场国有化，购买了超过1万亿美元的抵押贷款支持证券，并确保美国几乎所有的抵押贷款都由联邦机构担保或发起：房利美和房地美（在作为准私人机构破产后）、联邦住房管理局和弗吉尼亚州。</blockquote> More recently, the Fed realized the private broker-dealer banks that handle the all-important issuance of Treasury bonds could no longer be trusted.<blockquote>最近，美联储意识到处理至关重要的国债发行的私人经纪自营商银行不再值得信任。</blockquote> As analyst Christopher Whalen explains,&nbsp;“The Fed’s primary concern is not employment or inflation, but rather keeping the market for Treasury securities functioning.”<blockquote>正如分析师克里斯托弗·惠伦解释的那样，“美联储主要关心的不是就业或通胀，而是保持国债市场的运转。”</blockquote> In response, the Fed is cutting the broker-dealers out as unreliable players. The Treasury market and the U.S. dollar are the foundations of federal spending and power, and so the Fed has realized that, just as it did with the fraudulent embezzlers of the private-sector mortgage market, it has to bypass or neuter the private-sector players as threats to stability.<blockquote>作为回应，美联储正在将经纪自营商视为不可靠的参与者。国债市场和美元是联邦支出和权力的基础，因此美联储已经意识到，就像它对私营部门抵押贷款市场的欺诈性盗用者所做的那样，它必须绕过或压制私营部门参与者对稳定的威胁。</blockquote> Next up on the Fed’s agenda: take charge of the issuance of new money to households and cut Congress out of the loop.<blockquote>美联储的下一步议程是：负责向家庭发行新货币，并将国会排除在外。</blockquote> Money Directly From the Fed<blockquote>直接来自美联储的资金</blockquote> If you read up on the Fed’s plans for its own digital currency and the FedNow system, you’ll come to understand that the Fed has concluded that supporting consumption (i.e. giving money to households to enable more spending) is too important to leave in the corrupt hands of the legislative bodies (Congress) or the Treasury, which must issue debt to raise cash to distribute to households, debt that further burdens federal revenues and spending.<blockquote>如果你读过美联储自己的数字货币和FedNow系统的计划，你就会明白，美联储已经得出结论，支持消费（即向家庭提供资金以实现更多支出）太重要了，不能留在立法机构（国会）或财政部的腐败手中，它们必须发行债务来筹集现金分配给家庭，这些债务进一步加重了联邦收入和支出的负担。</blockquote> We can’t count on you, broker-dealers or Congress, so we’re taking charge, as the system is now so over-extended that any misadventure by other players could well be catastrophic. The only alternative from the Fed’s point of view is to take charge and cut the untrustworthy, self-serving incompetents out of the loop.<blockquote>我们不能指望你、经纪交易商或国会，所以我们负责，因为这个系统现在已经过度扩展，其他参与者的任何不幸都很可能是灾难性的。从美联储的角度来看，唯一的选择是承担责任，将不值得信任、自私自利的无能者排除在外。</blockquote> So the Fed’s plan is to create new money out of thin air and deposit it directly in household accounts via the FedNow system.<blockquote>因此，美联储的计划是凭空创造新货币，并通过FedNow系统将其直接存入家庭账户。</blockquote> The danger of this power grab is that the Fed will misjudge the situation, and that will prove catastrophic because the system has been stripped of resilience, feedback and redundancy.<blockquote>这种权力攫取的危险在于，美联储会误判形势，而这将被证明是灾难性的，因为该系统已经被剥夺了弹性、反馈和冗余。</blockquote> I suspect the Fed sees itself as trapped by the incompetence and greed of the other players and by its own policy extremes that were little more than expedient “saves” of a system that is unraveling due to its fragility and brittleness.<blockquote>我怀疑美联储认为自己被其他参与者的无能和贪婪以及自己的极端政策所困，这些政策只不过是对一个因其脆弱性和脆弱性而崩溃的体系的权宜之计的“拯救”。</blockquote> The groundwork is being laid for the Fed’s digital currency and direct deposits to households via FedNow accounts.<blockquote>正在为美联储的数字货币和通过FedNow账户直接向家庭存款奠定基础。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/feds-sneaky-plot\">Zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/feds-sneaky-plot","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187301815","content_text":"For the past 22 years, every time the stock market whimpered, wheezed or whined, the Federal Reserve rushed to soothe the spoiled crybaby.\nThere are two consequential results of the Fed as savior:\n\n 1. \n The Fed has perfected \nmoral hazard\n:everyone from the money manager betting billions to the punters gambling their stimmy money is absolutely confident I can’t lose because the Fed will always push the market higher.\n\nWhat happens when participants are confident they can’t possibly lose? They make ever-riskier and ever-larger bets. The entire nation is in the grip of a moral hazard mania, all based on the confidence that the Fed will always push every market higher—always, without fail.\n\n 2. \n Organic (i.e. non-manipulated) market forces have been extinguished.There is now only one consequential force, the Fed. All markets are now 100% dependent on the Fed responding to every bleat from every punter who’s recklessly risky bet is about to go bad.\n\nThe Fed is now the perfect union of quasi-religious savior and Helicopter Parent: oh dear, our little darling got high and crashed the Porsche? Quick, let’s save our precious market from any consequences!\nEvery day, Fed speakers take to the pulpit to spew another sermon about the Fed’s god-like power and wisdom. The true believers soak up every word: golly-gee, the Fed is better than any god — it’s guaranteeing I can get rich if I just leverage up any bet in any market!\nWith a savior like the Fed, you don’t need a real economy or a real market - all you need is the assurance that the Fed will save every market from every consequence.\nThe Point of Diminishing Returns\nAll this hubris is jolly while it lasts, but since risk cannot be dissipated, it can only be transferred, the Fed has transferred decades of fast-rising risk to the entire system. The entire system now rests on the Fed, a dependency that raises its own risks.\nBy imposing moral hazard and crushing consequences, the Fed has stripped the entire financial system of self-correcting mechanisms. This is a surefire recipe for systemic failure and collapse.\nThere is no way to wean the system off its dependence on the Fed, and no way to restore organic market functions. The slightest reduction in the Fed’s spew of trillions will crash the market, because there is literally nothing holding it aloft but Fed spew — monetary and verbal.\nThe problem with becoming 100% dependent on the Fed is any wobble will crash the system — and diminishing returns guarantee a wobble.\nThe system’s sensitivity to the Fed’s spew of trillions of dollars and claptrap preaching is diminishing,which is why the Fed has moved from spewing hundreds of billions to trillions, and why Fed speakers who we once heard from once a month are now out in force every single day.\nRemarkably, few anticipate any consequence from the Fed’s perfection of moral hazard and the system’s 100% dependence on the Fed’s spew even as diminishing returns gnaw away at the efficacy of the Fed’s ever more grandiose policies and pronouncements.\nIf you wanted to design a system guaranteed to collapse in a putrid heap, you’d make moral hazard ubiquitous and you’d make the system 100% dependent on a hubris-soaked faux savior.\nHey, that describes America’s economy and financial system perfectly. But now I want to explore something about the Fed you’ve probably never considered before…\nThe Fed’s Official and Unofficial Mandates\nThere are two standard-issue narratives about the Federal Reserve’s agenda: the Fed’s official narrative is that the Fed’s mandate is to keep inflation under control while promoting full employment.\nThe unofficial mandate that’s obvious to all is to prop up assets, especially the stock market, which has become the Fed’s preferred signifier of prosperity and the rightness/goodness of Fed policies.\nThe other narrative results from “following the money”: the Fed is owned by private-sector banks, and so behind the curtain of happy-talk (full employment, blah-blah-blah), the Fed’s only real agenda is to further enrich banks and too big to fail/jail financiers — something it has managed to do with remarkable success.\nThat the Fed inflated the 1999-2000 dot-com bubble and the 2005-2008 housing bubble is undeniable, as is the Fed’s 2008-09 bailout of the global financial system and too big to fail/jail mortgage originators and a vast array of other profiteering, embezzler-scoundrels.\nThe Fed’s zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP) and unprecedented quantitative easing monetary stimulus have pushed the Fed balance sheet, federal debt and systemic debt to heights that heretofore would have been inconceivable.\nWhile pursuing these non-mutually-exclusive agendas — we came to do good and stayed to do well— the Fed has generated destabilizing extremes of wealth and income inequality, a reality that the Fed laughably denies. (There must be much mirth about this BS behind closed doors.)\nAllow me to posit a third agenda which doesn’t negate either conventional agenda but does explain some of the Fed’s actions since 2008…\nThe Fed’s Real Mandate\nAs the system unravels, the Fed’s primary imperative is to save the financial system and economy from the greed-soaked incompetence of the other players, public and private, by taking charge of critical swaths of the financial system and economy.\nAfter the subprime debacle almost took down the entire global financial system, the Fed (with a bit of help from Congress) essentially took over the entire $10 trillion U.S. mortgage market.\nPrivate-sector lenders had figured out how to issue guaranteed-to-default mortgages and pass off the fraudulent mortgage-backed securities (MBS) to a global cast of suckers who believed America’s financial system was properly regulated. (Haha, the joke’s on you.)\nIn response, the Fed basically nationalized the mortgage market, buying more than $1 trillion in mortgage-backed securities and ensuring that virtually all mortgages in the U.S. were guaranteed or originated by federal agencies: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (after their bankruptcy as quasi-private agencies), FHA and VA.\nMore recently, the Fed realized the private broker-dealer banks that handle the all-important issuance of Treasury bonds could no longer be trusted.\nAs analyst Christopher Whalen explains, “The Fed’s primary concern is not employment or inflation, but rather keeping the market for Treasury securities functioning.”\nIn response, the Fed is cutting the broker-dealers out as unreliable players. The Treasury market and the U.S. dollar are the foundations of federal spending and power, and so the Fed has realized that, just as it did with the fraudulent embezzlers of the private-sector mortgage market, it has to bypass or neuter the private-sector players as threats to stability.\nNext up on the Fed’s agenda: take charge of the issuance of new money to households and cut Congress out of the loop.\nMoney Directly From the Fed\nIf you read up on the Fed’s plans for its own digital currency and the FedNow system, you’ll come to understand that the Fed has concluded that supporting consumption (i.e. giving money to households to enable more spending) is too important to leave in the corrupt hands of the legislative bodies (Congress) or the Treasury, which must issue debt to raise cash to distribute to households, debt that further burdens federal revenues and spending.\nWe can’t count on you, broker-dealers or Congress, so we’re taking charge, as the system is now so over-extended that any misadventure by other players could well be catastrophic. The only alternative from the Fed’s point of view is to take charge and cut the untrustworthy, self-serving incompetents out of the loop.\nSo the Fed’s plan is to create new money out of thin air and deposit it directly in household accounts via the FedNow system.\nThe danger of this power grab is that the Fed will misjudge the situation, and that will prove catastrophic because the system has been stripped of resilience, feedback and redundancy.\nI suspect the Fed sees itself as trapped by the incompetence and greed of the other players and by its own policy extremes that were little more than expedient “saves” of a system that is unraveling due to its fragility and brittleness.\nThe groundwork is being laid for the Fed’s digital currency and direct deposits to households via FedNow accounts.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1395,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":11,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}

The Fed's Sneaky Plot<blockquote>美联储的鬼鬼祟祟的阴谋</blockquote>

评论（1）

热议股票