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2021-07-16

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JPMorgan Goes After Cathie Wood, Urges Buying Puts On Her "Bubble-Like" Ark Fund<blockquote>摩根大通追逐凯西·伍德，敦促购买她“泡沫般”的方舟基金的看跌期权</blockquote>

Until now, JPMorgan's feud was mostly with bitcoin, publishing hitpiece after hitpiece with Swiss wa

JPMorgan Goes After Cathie Wood, Urges Buying Puts On Her "Bubble-Like" Ark Fund<blockquote>摩根大通追逐凯西·伍德，敦促购买她“泡沫般”的方舟基金的看跌期权</blockquote>

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But now, the largest US bank, which has been furiously clinging to its favorite reco of buying cyclical and value names at the expense of growth stocks - a trade which has backfired painfully in recent weeks - is escalating its crusade against tech by going after the poster child, or rather poster woman, of the latest tech bubble,Cathie Wood.<blockquote>到目前为止，摩根大通的不和主要是与比特币的不和，每隔一天就会定期发布一篇又一篇热门文章（因为它正在悄悄地为自己最近推出的富有客户基金积累加密货币）。但现在，这家美国最大的银行一直疯狂地坚持其最喜欢的做法，即以牺牲成长型股票为代价购买周期性和价值型股票——这种交易最近几周适得其反——正在升级对科技股的讨伐，追求最新科技泡沫的典型儿童，或者更确切地说是典型女性，凯西·伍德。</blockquote> In a note from JPM published this morning, equity derivative strategist Shawn Quigg says that Cathie Wood’s flagship ETF, ARKK, is exhibiting many \"bubble-like traits\" seen in growth-based funds in 2000 ahead of the popping of the dot com bubble, and investors should hedge against a similar outcome by buying puts on the Ark Fund.<blockquote>在摩根大通今天上午发布的一份报告中，股票衍生品策略师Shawn Quigg表示，Cathie Wood的旗舰ETF ARKK正在表现出2000年互联网泡沫破裂之前成长型基金中出现的许多“泡沫状特征”，投资者应该通过购买Ark基金的看跌期权来对冲类似的结果。</blockquote> Taking precious time away from its favorite bitcoin bashing pastime, JPMorgan - which we doubt is Cathie's Prime Broker - writes that\"excessive speculation in high-growth sub-sectors year-to-date is causing some growth-based funds to exhibit bubble-like cycles (Fig. 1), similar to that witnessed in 2000 (Fig. 2).The ARK Innovation ETF exhibits many of these traits, and may be luring investors into a bull trap scenario.\"<blockquote>摩根大通——我们怀疑它是凯西的主要经纪人——从其最喜欢的抨击比特币的消遣中抽出宝贵的时间写道“今年迄今为止，高增长子行业的过度投机导致一些基于增长的基金呈现出类似泡沫的周期（图1），类似于2000年的情况（图2）。ARK Innovation ETF表现出许多这些特征，可能会吸引投资者陷入牛市陷阱。”</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8ce5b2045dab9414160f919d7a55818\" tg-width=\"1206\" tg-height=\"439\">JPM's beef with Cathie aside, what we find most remarkable in Quigg's note is that this is the first time the largest US bank has gone on the record to admit that \"significant fiscal and monetary stimulus\" has led to \"bubble-like\" activity similar to that witnessed in 2000. Here is how Quigg lays out his thesis on \"navigating a bubble\" which culminates by shorting ARKK:<blockquote>抛开摩根大通与凯西的争执不谈，我们在奎格的报告中发现最引人注目的是，这是这家美国最大的银行首次公开承认“重大财政和货币刺激”导致了类似于2000年目睹的“泡沫状”活动。以下是奎格如何阐述他关于“驾驭泡沫”的论文，最终做空ARKK：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Eexcessive speculation in high-growth stocks and sub-sectors year-to-date, aided by significant fiscal and monetary stimulus, and ample liquidity in corporate and consumer balance sheets, is causing some growth-based funds to exhibit bubble-like cycles, similar to that witnessed in 2000 (Fig. 2).</li> <li>The ARKK 2020-21 trough to peak run of 385% fits the criteria we previously described as a bubble, a direct beneficiary of the Electric Vehicle/Green Tech (e.g., TSLA), Cryptocurrency (e.g., COIN, SQ), Work-From-Home (e.g., TDOC, ROKU, ZM), and pandemic biotech (e.g., CRSP) stocks/sub-sectors.</li> <li>However, after peaking in February, ARKK shares broke below key technical supports (e.g., 50, 100, 200-day moving averages)in just a matter of months (May) as the retail/Reddit mania, work from home and cryptocurrency trades (among others) faltered.</li> <li>A technical decline in Treasury yields and fear of the Delta variant allowed for a rebound in high-tech growth, and ARKK.</li> </ul> Combining these four catalysts is how the\"bull trap\"was set according to JPM.<blockquote><ul><li>e在重大财政和货币刺激措施以及企业和消费者资产负债表流动性充足的帮助下，年初至今高增长股票和子行业的过度投机导致一些基于增长的基金表现出类似泡沫的周期，类似于2000年的情况（图2）。</li><li>ARKK 2020-21年从低谷到峰值385%的运行符合我们之前描述为泡沫的标准，是电动汽车/绿色科技（例如TSLA）、加密货币（例如COIN、SQ）、在家工作（例如TDOC、ROKU、ZM）和大流行生物技术（例如CRSP）股票/子行业的直接受益者。</li><li>然而，在2月份见顶后，随着零售/Reddit狂热、在家工作和加密货币交易（除其他外）动摇，ARKK股价在短短几个月（5月）内跌破关键技术支撑位（例如50、100、200日移动平均线）。</li><li>美国国债收益率技术性下跌和对德尔塔变异毒株的担忧使得高科技增长和ARKK反弹。</li></ul>将这四种催化剂结合起来就是“公牛陷阱”是根据JPM设置的。</blockquote> But sticking to the bank's party line which \"favors the outperformance of cyclicals/value-based assets amid the ongoing economic reopening, and an anticipated pick-up in Treasury yields in 2H\" the bank says that investors should now start to exit said \"bull trap\" as the imminent \"rise in yields and a shift in the growth dynamic of the economy in-line with our value-based view could spark a bull trap reversal in ARKK shares.\"<blockquote>但坚持该行的政党路线，即“在经济持续重新开放的情况下，支持周期性资产/价值型资产的优异表现，以及下半年国债收益率的预期回升”，该行表示，投资者现在应该开始退出“牛市陷阱”即将到来的“收益率上升和经济增长动力的转变符合我们基于价值的观点，可能会引发ARKK股票的牛市陷阱逆转”。</blockquote> What specific event will spark the \"capitulation\" in ARKK shares? The same reflationary jump in bond yields that Marko Kolanovic has been predicting for months and months - even as yields tumbled - to wit:<blockquote>什么具体事件会引发ARKK股票的“投降”？马尔科·科拉诺维奇(Marko Kolanovic)数月来一直预测的债券收益率将出现通货再膨胀式的跃升——即使收益率暴跌——即：</blockquote> As we note, we believe the recent move in Treasury yields is technical in nature and is not an indication of a broader investor concern surrounding the health of the recovery, or a waning inflation outlook. Supporting this is the lack of tapering in the 10Y TIPS break-evens (Fig. 3), continued inflation reading above expectations (e.g., CPI, PPI, management commentary), and a recent weaker-than-anticipated 30Y Treasury auction (here). A looming rise in yields could be a catalyst to accelerate ARKK shares lower, in addition to the continued outperformance of large staple-tech stocks over disruptive-tech stocks (Fig. 4),and pressing ARKK into the capitulation phase. <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e217a9277d4bfe254c2b441415631b6d\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"362\">JPM is, of course, correct: if a rise in yields is indeed \"looming\", then not just ARKK but all high duration names will be clobbered, starting with the FAAMGs, a move which would then translate into a marketwide rout (oddly enough we don't see JPMorgan cutting their year-end S&amp;P forecast). The question is if and when yields will again spike higher, and what would spark this move in a world where the Fed is now supposedly \"on top of inflation fears\" and won't let rates rise too much, especially as growth fears over the spreading Delta variant dominate trading discussions.<blockquote>正如我们所指出的，我们认为美国国债收益率最近的走势本质上是技术性的，并不表明投资者对复苏健康状况或通胀前景减弱的更广泛担忧。支持这一点的是10年期TIPS盈亏平衡没有缩减（图3）、持续高于预期的通胀读数（例如CPI、PPI、管理层评论）以及最近弱于预期的30年期国债拍卖（此处）。除了大型主要科技股持续跑赢颠覆性科技股（图4）之外，迫在眉睫的收益率上升可能会成为加速ARKK股价下跌的催化剂，并迫使ARKK进入投降阶段。当然，摩根大通是正确的：如果收益率上升确实“迫在眉睫”，那么不仅是ARKK，所有高久期股票都将遭受重创，从FAAMGs开始，此举将转化为全市场的溃败（奇怪的是，我们没有看到摩根大通下调年终标准普尔预测）。问题是，收益率是否以及何时会再次飙升，以及在美联储现在应该“超越通胀担忧”并且不会让利率上升太多的情况下，什么会引发这一举措，特别是在增长担忧的情况下。蔓延的德尔塔变异毒株主导了交易讨论。</blockquote> Assuming readers agree with the JPM strategist that another spike in yields is imminent, how should they play the coming weakness in ARKK? As Quigg explains, \"current 3M 90% implied volatility of ~39% appears cheap, ranking in its 14th%-ile over thelast year. Given ARKK has a limited history, with the bulk of its returns and volatility occurring over the last year, we find utilizing the last year as a fair comparable measure, particularly if the stock may be poised for a broader capitulation phase.\"<blockquote>假设读者同意摩根大通策略师的观点，即收益率即将再次飙升，那么他们应该如何应对ARKK即将到来的疲软？正如Quigg所解释的那样，“目前3M 90%的隐含波动率约为39%，看起来很便宜，去年排名第14%。鉴于ARKK的历史有限，其大部分回报和波动性都发生在去年，我们发现利用去年作为一个公平的可比衡量标准，特别是如果该股可能准备进入更广泛的投降阶段。”</blockquote> As a result, JPMorgan recommends \"investors purchase ARKK October 105 strike puts for $4.50, indicatively ($118.17 reference price), taking advantage of implied volatility near a yearly low despite the potential for shares to enter a broader capitulation phase.\"<blockquote>因此，摩根大通建议“尽管股价有可能进入更广泛的投降阶段，但投资者仍利用接近年度低点的隐含波动率（参考价格为118.17美元）购买ARKK 105年10月执行看跌期权。”</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>JPMorgan Goes After Cathie Wood, Urges Buying Puts On Her \"Bubble-Like\" Ark Fund<blockquote>摩根大通追逐凯西·伍德，敦促购买她“泡沫般”的方舟基金的看跌期权</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJPMorgan Goes After Cathie Wood, Urges Buying Puts On Her \"Bubble-Like\" Ark Fund<blockquote>摩根大通追逐凯西·伍德，敦促购买她“泡沫般”的方舟基金的看跌期权</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzerohedge2021-07-16 10:41\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nUntil now, JPMorgan's feud was mostly with bitcoin, publishing hitpiece after hitpiece with Swiss watch regularity every other day (as it quietly accumulates the cryptocurrency for its ownrecently launched fund for rich clients). But now, the largest US bank, which has been furiously clinging to its favorite reco of buying cyclical and value names at the expense of growth stocks - a trade which has backfired painfully in recent weeks - is escalating its crusade against tech by going after the poster child, or rather poster woman, of the latest tech bubble,Cathie Wood.<blockquote>到目前为止，摩根大通的不和主要是与比特币的不和，每隔一天就会定期发布一篇又一篇热门文章（因为它正在悄悄地为自己最近推出的富有客户基金积累加密货币）。但现在，这家美国最大的银行一直疯狂地坚持其最喜欢的做法，即以牺牲成长型股票为代价购买周期性和价值型股票——这种交易最近几周适得其反——正在升级对科技股的讨伐，追求最新科技泡沫的典型儿童，或者更确切地说是典型女性，凯西·伍德。</blockquote> In a note from JPM published this morning, equity derivative strategist Shawn Quigg says that Cathie Wood’s flagship ETF, ARKK, is exhibiting many \"bubble-like traits\" seen in growth-based funds in 2000 ahead of the popping of the dot com bubble, and investors should hedge against a similar outcome by buying puts on the Ark Fund.<blockquote>在摩根大通今天上午发布的一份报告中，股票衍生品策略师Shawn Quigg表示，Cathie Wood的旗舰ETF ARKK正在表现出2000年互联网泡沫破裂之前成长型基金中出现的许多“泡沫状特征”，投资者应该通过购买Ark基金的看跌期权来对冲类似的结果。</blockquote> Taking precious time away from its favorite bitcoin bashing pastime, JPMorgan - which we doubt is Cathie's Prime Broker - writes that\"excessive speculation in high-growth sub-sectors year-to-date is causing some growth-based funds to exhibit bubble-like cycles (Fig. 1), similar to that witnessed in 2000 (Fig. 2).The ARK Innovation ETF exhibits many of these traits, and may be luring investors into a bull trap scenario.\"<blockquote>摩根大通——我们怀疑它是凯西的主要经纪人——从其最喜欢的抨击比特币的消遣中抽出宝贵的时间写道“今年迄今为止，高增长子行业的过度投机导致一些基于增长的基金呈现出类似泡沫的周期（图1），类似于2000年的情况（图2）。ARK Innovation ETF表现出许多这些特征，可能会吸引投资者陷入牛市陷阱。”</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8ce5b2045dab9414160f919d7a55818\" tg-width=\"1206\" tg-height=\"439\">JPM's beef with Cathie aside, what we find most remarkable in Quigg's note is that this is the first time the largest US bank has gone on the record to admit that \"significant fiscal and monetary stimulus\" has led to \"bubble-like\" activity similar to that witnessed in 2000. Here is how Quigg lays out his thesis on \"navigating a bubble\" which culminates by shorting ARKK:<blockquote>抛开摩根大通与凯西的争执不谈，我们在奎格的报告中发现最引人注目的是，这是这家美国最大的银行首次公开承认“重大财政和货币刺激”导致了类似于2000年目睹的“泡沫状”活动。以下是奎格如何阐述他关于“驾驭泡沫”的论文，最终做空ARKK：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Eexcessive speculation in high-growth stocks and sub-sectors year-to-date, aided by significant fiscal and monetary stimulus, and ample liquidity in corporate and consumer balance sheets, is causing some growth-based funds to exhibit bubble-like cycles, similar to that witnessed in 2000 (Fig. 2).</li> <li>The ARKK 2020-21 trough to peak run of 385% fits the criteria we previously described as a bubble, a direct beneficiary of the Electric Vehicle/Green Tech (e.g., TSLA), Cryptocurrency (e.g., COIN, SQ), Work-From-Home (e.g., TDOC, ROKU, ZM), and pandemic biotech (e.g., CRSP) stocks/sub-sectors.</li> <li>However, after peaking in February, ARKK shares broke below key technical supports (e.g., 50, 100, 200-day moving averages)in just a matter of months (May) as the retail/Reddit mania, work from home and cryptocurrency trades (among others) faltered.</li> <li>A technical decline in Treasury yields and fear of the Delta variant allowed for a rebound in high-tech growth, and ARKK.</li> </ul> Combining these four catalysts is how the\"bull trap\"was set according to JPM.<blockquote><ul><li>e在重大财政和货币刺激措施以及企业和消费者资产负债表流动性充足的帮助下，年初至今高增长股票和子行业的过度投机导致一些基于增长的基金表现出类似泡沫的周期，类似于2000年的情况（图2）。</li><li>ARKK 2020-21年从低谷到峰值385%的运行符合我们之前描述为泡沫的标准，是电动汽车/绿色科技（例如TSLA）、加密货币（例如COIN、SQ）、在家工作（例如TDOC、ROKU、ZM）和大流行生物技术（例如CRSP）股票/子行业的直接受益者。</li><li>然而，在2月份见顶后，随着零售/Reddit狂热、在家工作和加密货币交易（除其他外）动摇，ARKK股价在短短几个月（5月）内跌破关键技术支撑位（例如50、100、200日移动平均线）。</li><li>美国国债收益率技术性下跌和对德尔塔变异毒株的担忧使得高科技增长和ARKK反弹。</li></ul>将这四种催化剂结合起来就是“公牛陷阱”是根据JPM设置的。</blockquote> But sticking to the bank's party line which \"favors the outperformance of cyclicals/value-based assets amid the ongoing economic reopening, and an anticipated pick-up in Treasury yields in 2H\" the bank says that investors should now start to exit said \"bull trap\" as the imminent \"rise in yields and a shift in the growth dynamic of the economy in-line with our value-based view could spark a bull trap reversal in ARKK shares.\"<blockquote>但坚持该行的政党路线，即“在经济持续重新开放的情况下，支持周期性资产/价值型资产的优异表现，以及下半年国债收益率的预期回升”，该行表示，投资者现在应该开始退出“牛市陷阱”即将到来的“收益率上升和经济增长动力的转变符合我们基于价值的观点，可能会引发ARKK股票的牛市陷阱逆转”。</blockquote> What specific event will spark the \"capitulation\" in ARKK shares? The same reflationary jump in bond yields that Marko Kolanovic has been predicting for months and months - even as yields tumbled - to wit:<blockquote>什么具体事件会引发ARKK股票的“投降”？马尔科·科拉诺维奇(Marko Kolanovic)数月来一直预测的债券收益率将出现通货再膨胀式的跃升——即使收益率暴跌——即：</blockquote> As we note, we believe the recent move in Treasury yields is technical in nature and is not an indication of a broader investor concern surrounding the health of the recovery, or a waning inflation outlook. Supporting this is the lack of tapering in the 10Y TIPS break-evens (Fig. 3), continued inflation reading above expectations (e.g., CPI, PPI, management commentary), and a recent weaker-than-anticipated 30Y Treasury auction (here). A looming rise in yields could be a catalyst to accelerate ARKK shares lower, in addition to the continued outperformance of large staple-tech stocks over disruptive-tech stocks (Fig. 4),and pressing ARKK into the capitulation phase. <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e217a9277d4bfe254c2b441415631b6d\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"362\">JPM is, of course, correct: if a rise in yields is indeed \"looming\", then not just ARKK but all high duration names will be clobbered, starting with the FAAMGs, a move which would then translate into a marketwide rout (oddly enough we don't see JPMorgan cutting their year-end S&amp;P forecast). The question is if and when yields will again spike higher, and what would spark this move in a world where the Fed is now supposedly \"on top of inflation fears\" and won't let rates rise too much, especially as growth fears over the spreading Delta variant dominate trading discussions.<blockquote>正如我们所指出的，我们认为美国国债收益率最近的走势本质上是技术性的，并不表明投资者对复苏健康状况或通胀前景减弱的更广泛担忧。支持这一点的是10年期TIPS盈亏平衡没有缩减（图3）、持续高于预期的通胀读数（例如CPI、PPI、管理层评论）以及最近弱于预期的30年期国债拍卖（此处）。除了大型主要科技股持续跑赢颠覆性科技股（图4）之外，迫在眉睫的收益率上升可能会成为加速ARKK股价下跌的催化剂，并迫使ARKK进入投降阶段。当然，摩根大通是正确的：如果收益率上升确实“迫在眉睫”，那么不仅是ARKK，所有高久期股票都将遭受重创，从FAAMGs开始，此举将转化为全市场的溃败（奇怪的是，我们没有看到摩根大通下调年终标准普尔预测）。问题是，收益率是否以及何时会再次飙升，以及在美联储现在应该“超越通胀担忧”并且不会让利率上升太多的情况下，什么会引发这一举措，特别是在增长担忧的情况下。蔓延的德尔塔变异毒株主导了交易讨论。</blockquote> Assuming readers agree with the JPM strategist that another spike in yields is imminent, how should they play the coming weakness in ARKK? As Quigg explains, \"current 3M 90% implied volatility of ~39% appears cheap, ranking in its 14th%-ile over thelast year. Given ARKK has a limited history, with the bulk of its returns and volatility occurring over the last year, we find utilizing the last year as a fair comparable measure, particularly if the stock may be poised for a broader capitulation phase.\"<blockquote>假设读者同意摩根大通策略师的观点，即收益率即将再次飙升，那么他们应该如何应对ARKK即将到来的疲软？正如Quigg所解释的那样，“目前3M 90%的隐含波动率约为39%，看起来很便宜，去年排名第14%。鉴于ARKK的历史有限，其大部分回报和波动性都发生在去年，我们发现利用去年作为一个公平的可比衡量标准，特别是如果该股可能准备进入更广泛的投降阶段。”</blockquote> As a result, JPMorgan recommends \"investors purchase ARKK October 105 strike puts for $4.50, indicatively ($118.17 reference price), taking advantage of implied volatility near a yearly low despite the potential for shares to enter a broader capitulation phase.\"<blockquote>因此，摩根大通建议“尽管股价有可能进入更广泛的投降阶段，但投资者仍利用接近年度低点的隐含波动率（参考价格为118.17美元）购买ARKK 105年10月执行看跌期权。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jpmorgan-goes-after-cathie-wood-urges-buying-puts-her-bubble-ark-fund\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ARKK":"ARK Innovation ETF","ARKW":"ARK Next Generation Internet ETF","ARKF":"ARK Fintech Innovation ETF","ARKX":"ARK Space Exploration & Innovation ETF","JPM":"摩根大通","ARKG":"ARK Genomic Revolution ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jpmorgan-goes-after-cathie-wood-urges-buying-puts-her-bubble-ark-fund","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1123074557","content_text":"Until now, JPMorgan's feud was mostly with bitcoin, publishing hitpiece after hitpiece with Swiss watch regularity every other day (as it quietly accumulates the cryptocurrency for its ownrecently launched fund for rich clients). But now, the largest US bank, which has been furiously clinging to its favorite reco of buying cyclical and value names at the expense of growth stocks - a trade which has backfired painfully in recent weeks - is escalating its crusade against tech by going after the poster child, or rather poster woman, of the latest tech bubble,Cathie Wood.\nIn a note from JPM published this morning, equity derivative strategist Shawn Quigg says that Cathie Wood’s flagship ETF, ARKK, is exhibiting many \"bubble-like traits\" seen in growth-based funds in 2000 ahead of the popping of the dot com bubble, and investors should hedge against a similar outcome by buying puts on the Ark Fund.\nTaking precious time away from its favorite bitcoin bashing pastime, JPMorgan - which we doubt is Cathie's Prime Broker - writes that\"excessive speculation in high-growth sub-sectors year-to-date is causing some growth-based funds to exhibit bubble-like cycles (Fig. 1), similar to that witnessed in 2000 (Fig. 2).The ARK Innovation ETF exhibits many of these traits, and may be luring investors into a bull trap scenario.\"\nJPM's beef with Cathie aside, what we find most remarkable in Quigg's note is that this is the first time the largest US bank has gone on the record to admit that \"significant fiscal and monetary stimulus\" has led to \"bubble-like\" activity similar to that witnessed in 2000. Here is how Quigg lays out his thesis on \"navigating a bubble\" which culminates by shorting ARKK:\n\nEexcessive speculation in high-growth stocks and sub-sectors year-to-date, aided by significant fiscal and monetary stimulus, and ample liquidity in corporate and consumer balance sheets, is causing some growth-based funds to exhibit bubble-like cycles, similar to that witnessed in 2000 (Fig. 2).\nThe ARKK 2020-21 trough to peak run of 385% fits the criteria we previously described as a bubble, a direct beneficiary of the Electric Vehicle/Green Tech (e.g., TSLA), Cryptocurrency (e.g., COIN, SQ), Work-From-Home (e.g., TDOC, ROKU, ZM), and pandemic biotech (e.g., CRSP) stocks/sub-sectors.\nHowever, after peaking in February, ARKK shares broke below key technical supports (e.g., 50, 100, 200-day moving averages)in just a matter of months (May) as the retail/Reddit mania, work from home and cryptocurrency trades (among others) faltered.\nA technical decline in Treasury yields and fear of the Delta variant allowed for a rebound in high-tech growth, and ARKK.\n\nCombining these four catalysts is how the\"bull trap\"was set according to JPM.\nBut sticking to the bank's party line which \"favors the outperformance of cyclicals/value-based assets amid the ongoing economic reopening, and an anticipated pick-up in Treasury yields in 2H\" the bank says that investors should now start to exit said \"bull trap\" as the imminent \"rise in yields and a shift in the growth dynamic of the economy in-line with our value-based view could spark a bull trap reversal in ARKK shares.\"\nWhat specific event will spark the \"capitulation\" in ARKK shares? The same reflationary jump in bond yields that Marko Kolanovic has been predicting for months and months - even as yields tumbled - to wit:\n\n As we note, we believe the recent move in Treasury yields is technical in nature and is not an indication of a broader investor concern surrounding the health of the recovery, or a waning inflation outlook. Supporting this is the lack of tapering in the 10Y TIPS break-evens (Fig. 3), continued inflation reading above expectations (e.g., CPI, PPI, management commentary), and a recent weaker-than-anticipated 30Y Treasury auction (here).\n\n\nA looming rise in yields could be a catalyst to accelerate ARKK shares lower, in addition to the continued outperformance of large staple-tech stocks over disruptive-tech stocks (Fig. 4),and pressing ARKK into the capitulation phase.\n\nJPM is, of course, correct: if a rise in yields is indeed \"looming\", then not just ARKK but all high duration names will be clobbered, starting with the FAAMGs, a move which would then translate into a marketwide rout (oddly enough we don't see JPMorgan cutting their year-end S&P forecast). The question is if and when yields will again spike higher, and what would spark this move in a world where the Fed is now supposedly \"on top of inflation fears\" and won't let rates rise too much, especially as growth fears over the spreading Delta variant dominate trading discussions.\nAssuming readers agree with the JPM strategist that another spike in yields is imminent, how should they play the coming weakness in ARKK? As Quigg explains, \"current 3M 90% implied volatility of ~39% appears cheap, ranking in its 14th%-ile over thelast year. Given ARKK has a limited history, with the bulk of its returns and volatility occurring over the last year, we find utilizing the last year as a fair comparable measure, particularly if the stock may be poised for a broader capitulation phase.\"\nAs a result, JPMorgan recommends \"investors purchase ARKK October 105 strike puts for $4.50, indicatively ($118.17 reference price), taking advantage of implied volatility near a yearly low despite the potential for shares to enter a broader capitulation phase.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ARKK":0.9,"JPM":0.9,"ARKW":0.9,"ARKX":0.9,"ARKG":0.9,"ARKF":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1677,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":7,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}