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2021-06-21

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The Pandemic Stimulus Was Front-Loaded. That Could Mean a Bumpy Year<blockquote>疫情刺激计划是前置的。这可能意味着坎坷的一年</blockquote>

When government support fades away, there’s a risk that the affluent will sit on their cash rather t

The Pandemic Stimulus Was Front-Loaded. That Could Mean a Bumpy Year<blockquote>疫情刺激计划是前置的。这可能意味着坎坷的一年</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":167675867,"tweetId":"167675867","gmtCreate":1624267944059,"gmtModify":1634008662743,"author":{"id":3574144865893501,"idStr":"3574144865893501","authorId":3574144865893501,"authorIdStr":"3574144865893501","name":"ggTemple","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de3ccfc06d9832d7d83d64df904d5d4c","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":2,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Send a post</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Send a post</body></html>","text":"Send a post","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167675867","repostId":1134005424,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1134005424","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624266606,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1134005424?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-21 17:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Pandemic Stimulus Was Front-Loaded. That Could Mean a Bumpy Year<blockquote>疫情刺激计划是前置的。这可能意味着坎坷的一年</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1134005424","media":"NewYork Times","summary":"When government support fades away, there’s a risk that the affluent will sit on their cash rather t","content":" When government support fades away, there’s a risk that the affluent will sit on their cash rather than spend it. The U.S. economy is about to face a new challenge that has its roots in the arithmetic of growth: That which fiscal stimulus giveth, fiscal stimulus taketh away.<blockquote>当政府支持逐渐消失时，富人可能会坐拥现金而不是花掉它。美国经济即将面临一个新的挑战，这个挑战的根源在于增长的算术：财政刺激给予的，财政刺激拿走的。</blockquote> The $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan enacted in March, as well as a $900 billion pandemic aid package passed in December, are heavily front-loaded. They were set up to get money out the door fast. But one consequence of that strategy is that fiscal policy in the quarters ahead will subtract from economic growth.<blockquote>3月份颁布的1.9万亿美元的美国救援计划，以及12月份通过的9000亿美元的疫情援助计划，都是重量级的。他们的目的是让钱快速流出。但这一策略的一个后果是，未来几个季度的财政政策将拖累经济增长。</blockquote> Economists mostly project that the economy, with strong momentum in the labor market and huge pools of pent-up savings by households, will be strong enough to keep growing despite the fading of the fiscal boost. To avoid an economic downturn, a huge handoff must occur from government-driven demand to the private sector.<blockquote>经济学家大多预测，尽管财政刺激减弱，但凭借劳动力市场的强劲势头和家庭被压抑的巨额储蓄，经济将足以保持增长。为了避免经济衰退，必须从政府驱动的需求大规模转移到私营部门。</blockquote> The mainstream view is that this will be successful. But there are aspects of this unusual economic moment that could make the road ahead bumpy.<blockquote>主流观点认为，这将是成功的。但这一不寻常的经济时刻的某些方面可能会使未来的道路崎岖不平。</blockquote> There is no modern precedent for such huge swings in sums the government is pumping into the economy. And there is a risk — recently acknowledged by a top Federal Reserve official — that if pandemic-era savings are disproportionately held by the affluent, they will sit on that cash rather than spend it.<blockquote>政府向经济注入的资金出现如此巨大的波动，在现代还没有先例。美联储一位高级官员最近承认，存在一种风险，即如果富人不成比例地持有大流行时代的储蓄，他们将坐拥这些现金而不是花掉。</blockquote> “We’re definitely going to see a huge drop-off in fiscal stimulus,” said Nancy Vanden Houten, lead economist at Oxford Economics. “The question then is how well positioned is the economy to deal with that, and we don’t really know for sure, which applies to so much about this period we’re going through.”<blockquote>牛津经济研究院首席经济学家南希·范登·豪滕表示：“我们肯定会看到财政刺激大幅下降。”“接下来的问题是经济在多大程度上能够应对这一问题，我们并不确定，这适用于我们正在经历的这一时期。”</blockquote> Most Americans who were to receive stimulus checks of a combined $2,000 per person have already gotten them. The Treasury Departmentsaidthis month that $395 billion of that cash is now shipped, which is slightly more than the payments in the American Rescue Plan were projected to cost when it was passed.<blockquote>大多数将获得每人总计2000美元刺激支票的美国人已经拿到了。美国财政部本月表示，其中3950亿美元现金现已发货，略高于美国救援计划通过时预计的支付成本。</blockquote> While unemployment insurance payments remain elevated, that spending is also tapering as people return to work — and supplements to those payments are scheduled to expire in September. Much of the other spending was either near-term, focused on things like vaccine rollout, or will be spent very gradually, such as on an expanded child tax credit and grants to state and local governments.<blockquote>虽然失业保险金仍然很高，但随着人们重返工作岗位，支出也在减少——这些保险金的补充计划于9月到期。其他大部分支出要么是近期的，集中在疫苗推广等方面，要么将逐步支出，例如扩大儿童税收抵免以及对州和地方政府的拨款。</blockquote> Overall, government spending added 8.5 percentage points to the economic growth rate in the first quarter, according to calculations by the Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy at the Brookings Institution. But that so-called fiscal impact is forecast to turn slightly negative in the second and third quarters — and then act as a meaningful drag on growth in the fourth quarter of 2021 and in 2022.<blockquote>根据布鲁金斯学会哈钦斯财政和货币政策中心的计算，总体而言，政府支出为第一季度的经济增长率增加了8.5个百分点。但这种所谓的财政影响预计将在第二和第三季度略微转为负面，然后对2021年第四季度和2022年的增长产生重大拖累。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b156b10d917f764b8525eb6a64c332f7\" tg-width=\"660\" tg-height=\"639\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">By the second quarter of 2022, fiscal policy is on track to subtract 3.3 percentage points from the growth rate, considerably more than the 2.2-percentage-point subtraction in the third quarter of 2011, which was the most extreme quarter in the last post-stimulus hangover of the previous recession.<blockquote>到2022年第二季度，财政政策有望使增长率下降3.3个百分点，远高于2011年第三季度的2.2个百分点，2011年第三季度是上一次经济衰退后刺激后遗症中最极端的一个季度。</blockquote> That could change depending on where negotiations on infrastructure and family support policies lead, but those policies would be expected to influence fiscal policy over many years — they are backloaded rather than front-loaded — so they shouldn’t radically change the near-term future.<blockquote>这可能会根据基础设施和家庭支持政策谈判的进展而变化，但这些政策预计将影响多年的财政政策——它们是后装的而不是前装的——因此它们不应该从根本上改变近期的未来。</blockquote> The case for staying calm even as federal spending plummets rests on the rapid growth of the private sector in recent months.<blockquote>即使联邦支出大幅下降，仍能保持冷静的理由在于近几个月私营部门的快速增长。</blockquote> Employers are adding to their payrolls at a breakneck pace, so rising compensation ought to prop up consumer spending even as government support goes away. Businesses report being in an expansionary mood, which bodes well for investment spending. And overseas economies should start to surge ahead as other countries achieve more widespread vaccination, which would be good news for American exports.<blockquote>雇主正在以极快的速度增加工资，因此即使政府支持消失，薪酬的上升也应该会支撑消费者支出。企业报告处于扩张情绪，这对投资支出来说是个好兆头。随着其他国家实现更广泛的疫苗接种，海外经济应该会开始飙升，这对美国出口来说是个好消息。</blockquote> “I think the basic story is that the economy is reopening, so it can take the fact that this stimulus is coming off,” said Louise Sheiner, a senior fellow at Brookings.<blockquote>布鲁金斯学会高级研究员路易丝·谢纳表示：“我认为基本情况是经济正在重新开放，因此可以接受刺激措施正在取消的事实。”</blockquote> Moreover, Americans are sitting on a vast pool of savings from money they didn’t spend on things like travel and restaurants during the pandemic. Households have saved an average of $282 billion per month since March 2020, compared with $103 billion a month in 2019.<blockquote>此外，美国人在大流行期间没有花在旅行和餐馆等事情上的钱中积累了大量储蓄。自2020年3月以来，家庭平均每月储蓄2820亿美元，而2019年为每月1030亿美元。</blockquote> So a big question for the economy in the second half of 2021 and 2022 is what happens to that cumulative additional savings of $2.5 trillion. Will it prop up near-term spending enough to keep growth on a strong track, or will Americans instead prefer the comfort of having a beefed-up balance sheet?<blockquote>因此，2021年下半年和2022年经济面临的一个大问题是，这2.5万亿美元的累计额外储蓄会发生什么。它是否足以支撑近期支出以保持强劲增长，或者美国人是否更喜欢资产负债表增强的舒适感？</blockquote> That’s where the distributional concern arises. To the degree that money is held by people who are financially well-off, they may be less likely to spend it and help propel the economy.<blockquote>这就是分配问题出现的地方。在某种程度上，金钱由经济富裕的人持有，他们可能不太可能花钱并帮助推动经济发展。</blockquote> “Today’s fiscal tailwinds are projected to shift to headwinds next year,” said Lael Brainard, a Fed governor, in aspeechthis month. “So an important question is how much household spending will continue to support growth into next year, as opposed to settling back to prepandemic trends.”<blockquote>美联储理事莱尔·布雷纳德(Lael Brainard)本月在Aspeech表示：“预计今天的财政顺风明年将转变为逆风。”“因此，一个重要的问题是，明年有多少家庭支出将继续支持经济增长，而不是回到大流行前的趋势。”</blockquote> On the other hand, the rapidly shrinking fiscal surge could help moderate the inflation pressures that have been building in the economy. Whatever you think of the decision to send $2,000 to people, there won’t be any more checks that might push demand still higher and risk fueling a cycle of inflation.<blockquote>另一方面，迅速收缩的财政激增可能有助于缓解经济中不断积累的通胀压力。无论您如何看待向人们发送2,000美元的决定，都不会再有支票可能推高需求并有可能加剧通胀循环。</blockquote> Ultimately, this is another example of the ways the pandemic-driven economy is an unusual one. The only real historical comparisons to the kinds of surges in government spending of the last five quarters involve the beginnings and ends of wars, which have their own economic dynamics.<blockquote>最终，这是大流行驱动的经济不同寻常的另一个例子。与过去五个季度政府支出激增的唯一真正的历史比较涉及战争的开始和结束，这些战争有自己的经济动态。</blockquote> Which means it’s worth watching exactly what happens as the federal government pulls back, and whether American consumers and businesses and importers from around the world step up the way forecasters expect.<blockquote>这意味着值得关注联邦政府撤军时到底会发生什么，以及美国消费者、企业和来自世界各地的进口商是否会像预测者预期的那样采取行动。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1605590967916","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Pandemic Stimulus Was Front-Loaded. That Could Mean a Bumpy Year<blockquote>疫情刺激计划是前置的。这可能意味着坎坷的一年</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Pandemic Stimulus Was Front-Loaded. That Could Mean a Bumpy Year<blockquote>疫情刺激计划是前置的。这可能意味着坎坷的一年</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nNewYork Times2021-06-21 17:10\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n When government support fades away, there’s a risk that the affluent will sit on their cash rather than spend it. The U.S. economy is about to face a new challenge that has its roots in the arithmetic of growth: That which fiscal stimulus giveth, fiscal stimulus taketh away.<blockquote>当政府支持逐渐消失时，富人可能会坐拥现金而不是花掉它。美国经济即将面临一个新的挑战，这个挑战的根源在于增长的算术：财政刺激给予的，财政刺激拿走的。</blockquote> The $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan enacted in March, as well as a $900 billion pandemic aid package passed in December, are heavily front-loaded. They were set up to get money out the door fast. But one consequence of that strategy is that fiscal policy in the quarters ahead will subtract from economic growth.<blockquote>3月份颁布的1.9万亿美元的美国救援计划，以及12月份通过的9000亿美元的疫情援助计划，都是重量级的。他们的目的是让钱快速流出。但这一策略的一个后果是，未来几个季度的财政政策将拖累经济增长。</blockquote> Economists mostly project that the economy, with strong momentum in the labor market and huge pools of pent-up savings by households, will be strong enough to keep growing despite the fading of the fiscal boost. To avoid an economic downturn, a huge handoff must occur from government-driven demand to the private sector.<blockquote>经济学家大多预测，尽管财政刺激减弱，但凭借劳动力市场的强劲势头和家庭被压抑的巨额储蓄，经济将足以保持增长。为了避免经济衰退，必须从政府驱动的需求大规模转移到私营部门。</blockquote> The mainstream view is that this will be successful. But there are aspects of this unusual economic moment that could make the road ahead bumpy.<blockquote>主流观点认为，这将是成功的。但这一不寻常的经济时刻的某些方面可能会使未来的道路崎岖不平。</blockquote> There is no modern precedent for such huge swings in sums the government is pumping into the economy. And there is a risk — recently acknowledged by a top Federal Reserve official — that if pandemic-era savings are disproportionately held by the affluent, they will sit on that cash rather than spend it.<blockquote>政府向经济注入的资金出现如此巨大的波动，在现代还没有先例。美联储一位高级官员最近承认，存在一种风险，即如果富人不成比例地持有大流行时代的储蓄，他们将坐拥这些现金而不是花掉。</blockquote> “We’re definitely going to see a huge drop-off in fiscal stimulus,” said Nancy Vanden Houten, lead economist at Oxford Economics. “The question then is how well positioned is the economy to deal with that, and we don’t really know for sure, which applies to so much about this period we’re going through.”<blockquote>牛津经济研究院首席经济学家南希·范登·豪滕表示：“我们肯定会看到财政刺激大幅下降。”“接下来的问题是经济在多大程度上能够应对这一问题，我们并不确定，这适用于我们正在经历的这一时期。”</blockquote> Most Americans who were to receive stimulus checks of a combined $2,000 per person have already gotten them. The Treasury Departmentsaidthis month that $395 billion of that cash is now shipped, which is slightly more than the payments in the American Rescue Plan were projected to cost when it was passed.<blockquote>大多数将获得每人总计2000美元刺激支票的美国人已经拿到了。美国财政部本月表示，其中3950亿美元现金现已发货，略高于美国救援计划通过时预计的支付成本。</blockquote> While unemployment insurance payments remain elevated, that spending is also tapering as people return to work — and supplements to those payments are scheduled to expire in September. Much of the other spending was either near-term, focused on things like vaccine rollout, or will be spent very gradually, such as on an expanded child tax credit and grants to state and local governments.<blockquote>虽然失业保险金仍然很高，但随着人们重返工作岗位，支出也在减少——这些保险金的补充计划于9月到期。其他大部分支出要么是近期的，集中在疫苗推广等方面，要么将逐步支出，例如扩大儿童税收抵免以及对州和地方政府的拨款。</blockquote> Overall, government spending added 8.5 percentage points to the economic growth rate in the first quarter, according to calculations by the Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy at the Brookings Institution. But that so-called fiscal impact is forecast to turn slightly negative in the second and third quarters — and then act as a meaningful drag on growth in the fourth quarter of 2021 and in 2022.<blockquote>根据布鲁金斯学会哈钦斯财政和货币政策中心的计算，总体而言，政府支出为第一季度的经济增长率增加了8.5个百分点。但这种所谓的财政影响预计将在第二和第三季度略微转为负面，然后对2021年第四季度和2022年的增长产生重大拖累。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b156b10d917f764b8525eb6a64c332f7\" tg-width=\"660\" tg-height=\"639\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">By the second quarter of 2022, fiscal policy is on track to subtract 3.3 percentage points from the growth rate, considerably more than the 2.2-percentage-point subtraction in the third quarter of 2011, which was the most extreme quarter in the last post-stimulus hangover of the previous recession.<blockquote>到2022年第二季度，财政政策有望使增长率下降3.3个百分点，远高于2011年第三季度的2.2个百分点，2011年第三季度是上一次经济衰退后刺激后遗症中最极端的一个季度。</blockquote> That could change depending on where negotiations on infrastructure and family support policies lead, but those policies would be expected to influence fiscal policy over many years — they are backloaded rather than front-loaded — so they shouldn’t radically change the near-term future.<blockquote>这可能会根据基础设施和家庭支持政策谈判的进展而变化，但这些政策预计将影响多年的财政政策——它们是后装的而不是前装的——因此它们不应该从根本上改变近期的未来。</blockquote> The case for staying calm even as federal spending plummets rests on the rapid growth of the private sector in recent months.<blockquote>即使联邦支出大幅下降，仍能保持冷静的理由在于近几个月私营部门的快速增长。</blockquote> Employers are adding to their payrolls at a breakneck pace, so rising compensation ought to prop up consumer spending even as government support goes away. Businesses report being in an expansionary mood, which bodes well for investment spending. And overseas economies should start to surge ahead as other countries achieve more widespread vaccination, which would be good news for American exports.<blockquote>雇主正在以极快的速度增加工资，因此即使政府支持消失，薪酬的上升也应该会支撑消费者支出。企业报告处于扩张情绪，这对投资支出来说是个好兆头。随着其他国家实现更广泛的疫苗接种，海外经济应该会开始飙升，这对美国出口来说是个好消息。</blockquote> “I think the basic story is that the economy is reopening, so it can take the fact that this stimulus is coming off,” said Louise Sheiner, a senior fellow at Brookings.<blockquote>布鲁金斯学会高级研究员路易丝·谢纳表示：“我认为基本情况是经济正在重新开放，因此可以接受刺激措施正在取消的事实。”</blockquote> Moreover, Americans are sitting on a vast pool of savings from money they didn’t spend on things like travel and restaurants during the pandemic. Households have saved an average of $282 billion per month since March 2020, compared with $103 billion a month in 2019.<blockquote>此外，美国人在大流行期间没有花在旅行和餐馆等事情上的钱中积累了大量储蓄。自2020年3月以来，家庭平均每月储蓄2820亿美元，而2019年为每月1030亿美元。</blockquote> So a big question for the economy in the second half of 2021 and 2022 is what happens to that cumulative additional savings of $2.5 trillion. Will it prop up near-term spending enough to keep growth on a strong track, or will Americans instead prefer the comfort of having a beefed-up balance sheet?<blockquote>因此，2021年下半年和2022年经济面临的一个大问题是，这2.5万亿美元的累计额外储蓄会发生什么。它是否足以支撑近期支出以保持强劲增长，或者美国人是否更喜欢资产负债表增强的舒适感？</blockquote> That’s where the distributional concern arises. To the degree that money is held by people who are financially well-off, they may be less likely to spend it and help propel the economy.<blockquote>这就是分配问题出现的地方。在某种程度上，金钱由经济富裕的人持有，他们可能不太可能花钱并帮助推动经济发展。</blockquote> “Today’s fiscal tailwinds are projected to shift to headwinds next year,” said Lael Brainard, a Fed governor, in aspeechthis month. “So an important question is how much household spending will continue to support growth into next year, as opposed to settling back to prepandemic trends.”<blockquote>美联储理事莱尔·布雷纳德(Lael Brainard)本月在Aspeech表示：“预计今天的财政顺风明年将转变为逆风。”“因此，一个重要的问题是，明年有多少家庭支出将继续支持经济增长，而不是回到大流行前的趋势。”</blockquote> On the other hand, the rapidly shrinking fiscal surge could help moderate the inflation pressures that have been building in the economy. Whatever you think of the decision to send $2,000 to people, there won’t be any more checks that might push demand still higher and risk fueling a cycle of inflation.<blockquote>另一方面，迅速收缩的财政激增可能有助于缓解经济中不断积累的通胀压力。无论您如何看待向人们发送2,000美元的决定，都不会再有支票可能推高需求并有可能加剧通胀循环。</blockquote> Ultimately, this is another example of the ways the pandemic-driven economy is an unusual one. The only real historical comparisons to the kinds of surges in government spending of the last five quarters involve the beginnings and ends of wars, which have their own economic dynamics.<blockquote>最终，这是大流行驱动的经济不同寻常的另一个例子。与过去五个季度政府支出激增的唯一真正的历史比较涉及战争的开始和结束，这些战争有自己的经济动态。</blockquote> Which means it’s worth watching exactly what happens as the federal government pulls back, and whether American consumers and businesses and importers from around the world step up the way forecasters expect.<blockquote>这意味着值得关注联邦政府撤军时到底会发生什么，以及美国消费者、企业和来自世界各地的进口商是否会像预测者预期的那样采取行动。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/21/upshot/pandemic-economy-stimulus.html\">NewYork Times</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/21/upshot/pandemic-economy-stimulus.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1134005424","content_text":"When government support fades away, there’s a risk that the affluent will sit on their cash rather than spend it.\n\nThe U.S. economy is about to face a new challenge that has its roots in the arithmetic of growth: That which fiscal stimulus giveth, fiscal stimulus taketh away.\nThe $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan enacted in March, as well as a $900 billion pandemic aid package passed in December, are heavily front-loaded. They were set up to get money out the door fast. But one consequence of that strategy is that fiscal policy in the quarters ahead will subtract from economic growth.\nEconomists mostly project that the economy, with strong momentum in the labor market and huge pools of pent-up savings by households, will be strong enough to keep growing despite the fading of the fiscal boost. To avoid an economic downturn, a huge handoff must occur from government-driven demand to the private sector.\nThe mainstream view is that this will be successful. But there are aspects of this unusual economic moment that could make the road ahead bumpy.\nThere is no modern precedent for such huge swings in sums the government is pumping into the economy. And there is a risk — recently acknowledged by a top Federal Reserve official — that if pandemic-era savings are disproportionately held by the affluent, they will sit on that cash rather than spend it.\n“We’re definitely going to see a huge drop-off in fiscal stimulus,” said Nancy Vanden Houten, lead economist at Oxford Economics. “The question then is how well positioned is the economy to deal with that, and we don’t really know for sure, which applies to so much about this period we’re going through.”\nMost Americans who were to receive stimulus checks of a combined $2,000 per person have already gotten them. The Treasury Departmentsaidthis month that $395 billion of that cash is now shipped, which is slightly more than the payments in the American Rescue Plan were projected to cost when it was passed.\nWhile unemployment insurance payments remain elevated, that spending is also tapering as people return to work — and supplements to those payments are scheduled to expire in September. Much of the other spending was either near-term, focused on things like vaccine rollout, or will be spent very gradually, such as on an expanded child tax credit and grants to state and local governments.\nOverall, government spending added 8.5 percentage points to the economic growth rate in the first quarter, according to calculations by the Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy at the Brookings Institution. But that so-called fiscal impact is forecast to turn slightly negative in the second and third quarters — and then act as a meaningful drag on growth in the fourth quarter of 2021 and in 2022.\nBy the second quarter of 2022, fiscal policy is on track to subtract 3.3 percentage points from the growth rate, considerably more than the 2.2-percentage-point subtraction in the third quarter of 2011, which was the most extreme quarter in the last post-stimulus hangover of the previous recession.\nThat could change depending on where negotiations on infrastructure and family support policies lead, but those policies would be expected to influence fiscal policy over many years — they are backloaded rather than front-loaded — so they shouldn’t radically change the near-term future.\nThe case for staying calm even as federal spending plummets rests on the rapid growth of the private sector in recent months.\nEmployers are adding to their payrolls at a breakneck pace, so rising compensation ought to prop up consumer spending even as government support goes away. Businesses report being in an expansionary mood, which bodes well for investment spending. And overseas economies should start to surge ahead as other countries achieve more widespread vaccination, which would be good news for American exports.\n“I think the basic story is that the economy is reopening, so it can take the fact that this stimulus is coming off,” said Louise Sheiner, a senior fellow at Brookings.\nMoreover, Americans are sitting on a vast pool of savings from money they didn’t spend on things like travel and restaurants during the pandemic. Households have saved an average of $282 billion per month since March 2020, compared with $103 billion a month in 2019.\nSo a big question for the economy in the second half of 2021 and 2022 is what happens to that cumulative additional savings of $2.5 trillion. Will it prop up near-term spending enough to keep growth on a strong track, or will Americans instead prefer the comfort of having a beefed-up balance sheet?\nThat’s where the distributional concern arises. To the degree that money is held by people who are financially well-off, they may be less likely to spend it and help propel the economy.\n“Today’s fiscal tailwinds are projected to shift to headwinds next year,” said Lael Brainard, a Fed governor, in aspeechthis month. “So an important question is how much household spending will continue to support growth into next year, as opposed to settling back to prepandemic trends.”\nOn the other hand, the rapidly shrinking fiscal surge could help moderate the inflation pressures that have been building in the economy. Whatever you think of the decision to send $2,000 to people, there won’t be any more checks that might push demand still higher and risk fueling a cycle of inflation.\nUltimately, this is another example of the ways the pandemic-driven economy is an unusual one. The only real historical comparisons to the kinds of surges in government spending of the last five quarters involve the beginnings and ends of wars, which have their own economic dynamics.\nWhich means it’s worth watching exactly what happens as the federal government pulls back, and whether American consumers and businesses and importers from around the world step up the way forecasters expect.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1618,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":9,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}